Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD580 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 5.9 MILLION (US$9 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN FOR THE STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING PROJECT June 19, 2014 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 2 Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective 30 April 2014) Currency Unit = South Sudanese Pound (SSP) US$1 = SSP 3.500 US$1 = SDR 0.64529035 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank AV Audiovisual AWP Annual Work Plan BoD Board of Directors CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPI Consumer Price Index DfID UK Department of International Development DP Development Partner FCS Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations FM Financial Management FPM Financial Procedures Manual FY Fiscal Year GDDS General Data Dissemination System GDP Gross Domestic Product GFS Government Finance Statistics GIS Geographical Information System GIZ German International Cooperation Organization GRSS Government of the Republic of South Sudan HFSSS High-Frequency South Sudan Survey HH Household HR Human Resource ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Agency (World Bank) IFR Interim Financial Report IMF International Monetary Fund IMWG South Sudan Information Management Working Group IPF Investment Project Financing IPPDR Interim Public Procurement and Disposal Regulations ISR Implementation Support Report IT Information Technology JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JNF Joint NSDS Forum LGA Local Government Authority MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MDGs Millennium Development Goals MoFEP Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NBS National Bureau of Statistics NCT NSDS Coordination Team NSC NSDS Steering Committee NSDS National Strategy for Development of Statistics NSS National Statistics System PA Project Advance PAD Project Appraisal Document PARIS21 Partnership in Statistics for Development in 21st Century PDO Project Development Objective PFMU Project Financial Management Unit POM Project Operations Manual PP Procurement Plan PPF Project Preparation Facility QNR Questionnaire SCI Statistical Capacity Indicator SN Statistics Norway SNA System of National Accounts SPLM Sudan’s People’s Liberation Movement SSCCSE Southern Sudan Centre for Census, Statistics and Evaluation SSDP South Sudan Development Plan SSP South Sudanese Pound SSWG Sector Statistics Working Groups StatCap Statistical Capacity Building TA Technical Assistance TASC Tool for Assessing Statistical Capacity TF Trust Fund ToR Term of Reference UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World Bank Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Bella Bird Sector Director: Marcelo Giugale Sector Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Task Team Leader: Thomas Danielewitz SOUTH SUDAN STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT .................................................................................................1 A. Country Context ............................................................................................................ 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context................................................................................. 2 C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes .......................................... 5 II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE (PDO) ......................................................5 A. PDO............................................................................................................................... 5 B. Project Beneficiaries ..................................................................................................... 5 C. PDO Level Results Indicators ....................................................................................... 6 III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ..............................................................................................7 A. Project Components ...................................................................................................... 7 B. Project Financing .......................................................................................................... 9 IV. IMPLEMENTATION .....................................................................................................10 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................ 10 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................ 12 C. Sustainability............................................................................................................... 12 V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ..........................................................13 A. Risk Ratings Summary Table ..................................................................................... 13 B. Overall Risk Rating Explanation ................................................................................ 13 VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................14 A. Economic and Financial Analysis ............................................................................... 14 B. Technical ..................................................................................................................... 15 C. Financial Management ................................................................................................ 15 D. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 16 E. Environmental and Social Safeguard .......................................................................... 17 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring .........................................................................18 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description .......................................................................................23 Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements ..................................................................................32 Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) .................................................51 Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan ....................................................................................57 . PAD DATA SHEET South Sudan Statistical Capacity Building Project (P144139) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT . AFRICA AFTP2 Report No.: PAD580 . Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader P144139 C - Not Required Thomas Danielewitz Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ X ] Investment Project Financing - Fragile States Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date 15-Jul-2014 30-Jun-2020 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 15-Nov-2014 30-Jun-2020 Joint IFC: No Sector Manager Sector Director Country Director Regional Vice President Pablo Fajnzylber Marcelo Giugale Bella Bird Makhtar Diop . Borrower: Government of South Sudan Responsible Agency: National Bureau of Statistics Contact: Isaiah Chol Title: Chairman Telephone No.: Email: isaiah_chol@yahoo.com . Safeguards Deferral (from Decision Review Decision Note) Will the review of Safeguards be deferred? [ ] Yes [ X ] No Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [ ] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee [X] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 9.00 Total Bank Financing: 9.00 Financing Gap: 0.00 . i Financing Source Amount BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.00 International Development Association (IDA) 9.00 Total 9.00 . Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual 0.50 1.50 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Cumulative 0.50 2.00 4.50 6.50 8.00 9.00 . Proposed Development Objective(s) The development objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity of statistics producers in South Sudan to produce and disseminate official statistics. . Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Legal Reforms and Institutional Development 0.34 Human Resource Development and Training 0.86 Information and Communication Technology and Statistical 1.20 Infrastructure Development Data Development and Dissemination 4.70 Project Management 1.90 . Institutional Data Sector Board Poverty Reduction Sectors / Climate Change Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-benefits % Co-benefits % Public Administration, Law, and General public 100 Justice administration sector Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. . Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % ii Economic management Economic statistics, modeling and 40 forecasting Social protection and risk management Poverty strategy, analysis and 30 monitoring Public sector governance Other public sector governance 30 Total 100 . Compliance Policy Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes [ ] No [ X ] respects? . Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] . Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X . Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency NSDS Steering Committee (NSC) 15-Feb-2015 Description of Covenant The Recipient shall, not later than three months after the effective date, establish, and maintain during Project implementation, a committee, the National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) Steering Committee, with a mandate, composition and resources acceptable to the Association for the purpose of facilitating and coordinating the execution of the Project; all in accordance with Section I.A.2 of Schedule 2 of the Financing Agreement. . iii Conditions Source Of Fund Name Type Project Operations Manual (POM) Effectiveness Description of Condition The Recipient shall have prepared and adopted the Project Operations Manual in accordance with Article IV and Section I.B of Schedule 2 of the Financing Agreement. Source Of Fund Name Type Financial Management Specialist and Procurement Effectiveness Specialist Description of Condition The Recipient shall have hired a financial management specialist and a procurement specialist in accordance with Article IV of the Financing Agreement. Team Composition Bank Staff Name Title Specialization Unit Kimo Aban Adiebo Economist Economist AFTP2 Gouy Luca Bandiera Senior Economist Senior Economist DFIRM Thomas Danielewitz Statistician Task Team Lead DECDG Hassine Hedda Senior Finance Officer Senior Finance Officer CTRLA Mikael L. Clason Hook Consultant Consultant AFTP2 Liv Ase Maria Consultant Consultant AFTP2 Johansson Akwii Anne Kennox Team Assistant Team Assistant AFMJB Anjani Kumar Senior Procurement Senior Procurement AFTPE Specialist Specialist Siobhan McInerney- Senior Counsel Senior Counsel LEGAM Lankford Adenike Sherifat Sr Financial Sr Financial AFTME Oyeyiola Management Specialist Management Specialist Utz Johann Pape E T Consultant E T Consultant AFTP2 Andrea E. Stumpf Lead Counsel Lead Counsel LEGCF . Locations Country First Administrative Location Planned Actual Comments Division South Sudan Central Equatoria State Juba X iv I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Country Context 1. The world’s youngest nation. The Republic of South Sudan is the world’s youngest nation. After decades of civil war and strife, a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed between the Government of Sudan and Sudan’s People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) in 2005. As part of the peace agreement, a referendum on self-determination was held in January 2011 in which a vast majority of the people of South Sudan chose secession and independence. The Republic of South Sudan became a reality on 9 July 2011. The total population of South Sudan was estimated at 8.3 million people in 2008 with most people (83 percent) living in rural areas and dependent on subsistence agriculture. The new Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GRSS) constitutes a decentralized system comprising of the Central Government and ten state administrations. The administrative units of the lower level government comprise of county, payam and boma. 2. A dependency on its oil resources. South Sudan is highly dependent on oil resources. About 75 percent of former Sudan’s oil resources are within the territory of South Sudan close to the border with Sudan. A pipeline through Sudan enables export of oil from landlocked South Sudan. In 2012, the GRSS decided to shut down oil production over transit fee disputes with Sudan. The oil shutdown in 2012 reduced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by an estimated 54 percent within one year and forced the Government to impose harsh austerity measures across the Government and the civil service. A resolution to the dispute was reached in early 2013 and oil production is slowly resuming; however the fiscal situation for most government ministries, departments and agencies remains depressed. Before the oil shutdown, oil revenue made up almost 98 percent of the Government of South Sudan’s budget. 3. A government in pursuit of evidence-based policies and programs. Since gaining independence in July 2011, the GRSS has formulated a program of public policies and investments aimed at building the foundations of a viable, prosperous and democratic state with the main objectives of spurring economic growth, reducing poverty and improving public service delivery. The Government is pursuing these projects and programs using a results-based agenda outlined in the South Sudan Development Plan (SSDP) and other national and sector development frameworks. While some programs were halted due to austerity measures, the goal to use data and statistics to monitor and assess performance remains. 4. Peace and security remain a challenge. Challenges abound for South Sudan including ensuring peace and security. Violent conflict broke out in Juba in December 2013 and soon spread to other parts of the country. A ceasefire has now been agreed and the factions are working towards a sustainable political solution. The conflict has not reduced the Government of South Sudan’s need and desire for reliable statistical information. In fact, the need for reliable data to guide and monitor the Government’s reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts has become all the more pressing. 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 5. New beginnings for the South Sudan Statistical System. The National Statistical System (NSS) of the Republic of South Sudan has its roots in the Database and Monitoring unit of the Sudan Relief and Rehabilitation Association, the humanitarian wing of the SPLM. Following the CPA in 2005, the South Sudan Centre for Census, Statistics and Evaluation (SSCCSE) was established through a Government of Southern Sudan Presidential Decree. Subsequently, the South Sudan Transitional Constitution renamed SSCCSE as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The NBS and its preceding organizations have carried out a number of important statistical operations since 2005, including the 2008 Population and Housing Census, 2009 National Baseline Household Survey, 2010 Welfare Monitoring Survey, 2006 and 2010 South Sudan Household Health Surveys, 2009-11 Gross Domestic Product, 2009 Business Survey, and Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban areas. 6. The many challenges and constraints of the South Sudan statistical system. The foundation of a national statistical office has been established and the contours of a statistical system headed by NBS and comprising users and producers as well as financiers have been outlined. But to develop the system further, NBS and other statistics producers have to address a host of issues. While the statistical system of South Sudan has come a long way since its beginning in 2005, numerous challenges remain. Some of the challenges and constraints include, but are not limited to: (a) precarious security situation in some parts of the country, which makes statistical activities difficult; (b) a weak legal framework for statistics and a lack of appropriate regulations and policies; (c) a fragmented and uncoordinated institutional environment resulting in a lack of coordination and collaboration between data producers; (d) sparse and unsystematic dialogue with users of statistics; (e) a need to align the organizational structure of NBS with its corporate objectives; (f) a large number of unfilled vacancies, high staff turn-over, and a gap in technical and managerial skills; (g) a lack of a standards and protocols such as a compendium of concepts and definitions; and manuals, guidelines and handbooks describing and documenting processes and products including sources, methods and quality assurance frameworks; (h) outdated and insufficient Information and Communication Technology (ICT) resources including lack of audiovisual (AV) equipment and computer hardware, software and networks; (i) outdated sampling frames for statistical sample surveys; (j) lack of funds for statistical operations especially for field work activities; (k) inadequate dissemination infrastructure, policies and practices; and a (l) dilapidated physical work environment with insufficient buildings, work space and facilities. 7. The National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) 2014-19 as a coordination framework and strategic business plan. Previous initiatives to develop the statistical system have sometimes been patchy, uncoordinated and partly driven by availability of external resources. There have been few opportunities to develop a long-term, sustainable, 2 coherent and realistic strategy for the development of the NSS to address the above-mentioned constraints in a coherent and systematic manner. In response to the above-mentioned challenges and constraints, in 2011-12 the GRSS, in collaboration with key stakeholders, developed a NSDS 2014-19 as an attempt to bring structure and medium-term strategic planning to the statistical service. The NSDS sets out a comprehensive strategic and policy framework for the development of the NSS over a five-year period. The vision is to establish an integrated, professional, efficient and effective national statistical system, which will serve all stakeholders and provide the statistical foundation for sustainable social and economic development of South Sudan. The NSDS contains five main components: A) Legal Reforms and Institutional Development, B) Human Resource Capacity Development, C) Development of Statistical Infrastructure, D) Data Development and Dissemination, E) Physical Infrastructure and Equipment/Software, and F) Project Management and Coordination. The implementation of the NSDS will establish NBS as the apex organization of the South Sudan statistical system. NBS will be the custodian of official statistics in South Sudan with the responsibility of setting standards and policies and coordinating all official statistics production. Furthermore, NBS intends to become a one-stop shop for users of official statistics in South Sudan with easy access to micro-data and aggregated socio-economic time-series with metadata as well as in-depth thematic reports and regular statistical abstracts. 8. Strong government commitment to statistics. The NSDS was adopted by the South Sudan Government’s Council of Ministers in February 2013 and represents official GRSS policy and strategy for the statistics sector. A further sign of the importance GRSS assigns to statistics is underscored by statistics being listed as an important priority under the governance programmatic area of the SSDP, which is the government’s medium-term strategic development framework. Because of the current austerity measures due to the recent oil shutdown, NBS has not been able to obtain any firm commitments of additional funding for statistics from the central government budget. It is expected that once the fiscal constraints are eased, more resources for the statistics sector will be forthcoming from the Government. 9. A US$58 million strategy with multiple financiers and supporters. NBS estimates that full implementation of the NSDS 2014-19 work plan will require financial resources of US$58 million, excluding NBS’ recurrent operating expenses, which are funded from the central government budget allocation. The annual budget allocation for NBS is usually between US$4 – 6 million depending on the scope of activities in a given year. However, actual outturns usually fall substantially short of the approved allocation. The Government allocation primarily funds core operations related to staff salaries and other recurrent expenditures. NBS has primarily sought to raise funds for the implementation of the NSDS from Development Partners. The NSDS has been divided into two phases, which will require approximately US$30 million each. 10. Multiple Development Partners (DPs) have pledged support. In June 2013, a DP Conference was held in Juba, with the aim of raising funds for phase 1 of the NSDS. The following DPs were represented at the conference: African Development Bank (AfDB), the German International Cooperation Organization (GIZ), the UK Department of International Development (DfID), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Statistics Norway (SN) and the World Bank (WB). It is 3 expected that these organizations will be the main development partners supporting implementation of the NSDS. Other potential partners who have expressed an interest in supporting statistics include the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Ongoing programs and current pledges of financial and technical support for NSDS activities are presented in the “Table 1: Project Financing by Components and Main Activities”. 11. An International Development Agency (IDA)-credit of US$9 million equivalent contribution to the implementation of phase 1 of the NSDS. Through this operation, the World Bank (WB) will be contributing a US$9 million equivalent IDA-credit to help support the implementation of the NSDS. As part of this operation, the World Bank has already approved advance funding for the NSDS in anticipation of successful preparation and approval of the main IDA-credit. The proceeds of the project advance of US$1.97 million equivalent will support scaling up of implementation and coordination capacity in NBS and carrying out key reviews and assessments, which will guide the development of reform areas within the legal framework for statistics, Human Resource (HR) and organizational issues, and ICT and training. Furthermore, the project advance is financing priority operations such as the Post-Crisis Survey and strengthening of national accounts. While the IDA-credit of US$9 million equivalent is only one source of financing for the NSDS, the World Bank-financed activities are designed as self- contained activities that do not rely on other partners contributions to be fully implemented. 12. Other donors, including DfID and the Government of Norway, have important engagements in the statistics sector in South Sudan. DfID is financing the High-Frequency Survey South Sudan (HFSSS), which is implemented by NBS with implementation support and advice from WB. DfID is also supporting economic and financial statistics through an International Monetary Fund (IMF)-managed Trust Fund (TF) for Macroeconomic Statistics and Policies. The Government of Norway has been supporting statistics in South Sudan since 2005 through provision of technical assistance from Statistics Norway. Norway’s cooperation with NBS has entered its third phase with an emphasis on the following areas: CPI, Agricultural Statistics, and Welfare Monitoring Survey, statistical training, Statistical Business Register, ICT investments and support for database development and management and dissemination. 13. Alignment between DPs and government objectives. Development partners are coordinated and aligned with government objectives. The group of development partners engaged in the statistics sector in South Sudan has discussed issues of coordination and collaboration on several occasions since 2011. The group comprises SN, JICA, AfDB, DfID, IMF USAID, WB, GIZ and a number of UN funds and programs. The cooperation between DPs has not been formalized, but all DPs have agreed to align with the priorities in the NSDS and harmonize their support to the extent possible. It has also been agreed to establish a joint monitoring forum for GRSS-DP consultations on the NSDS and dialogue about statistical plans and budgets, performance reports and other issues requiring consultation between GRSS and DPs. This forum will also be a useful venue for new development partners to join the sector and for existing partners to reaffirm their commitments to the NSDS. The Joint NSDS Forum (JNF) will meet quarterly. 4 C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes 14. Monitoring SSDP implementation and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Improvements in the relevance, timeliness, availability and accuracy of priority statistics will contribute to more effective development policy by providing the basis for monitoring and evaluating the SSDP, and for tracking the progress of key performance indicators and targets identified in sector plans. It will also provide data needed for policy-makers, analysts, commentators and media to provide feedback and opinions on the effectiveness of public policy and the use of public resources. 15. Strengthening governance and accountability and building the foundation for evidence-based decision-making. Reliable, relevant and freely accessible information is an important building block of an open society with a transparent and accountable government. When data are unavailable or unreliable, or when users lack confidence in the institutions that produce them, decision-makers tend to base decisions on their assumptions about the world and the prevailing ideology. This creates an environment where strategies and plans are devised and implemented without attention to empirical evidence and with weak monitoring and evaluation practices. This in turn further depresses the demand for data. An important step to break this vicious circle is to provide users with easy access to relevant, reliable and timely data and the tools to interpret them. This project will build the capacity of official statistics producers to improve the relevance, timeliness, reliability and accessibility of data, and strengthen the analysis and use of statistics by increasing awareness, improving engagement with non- government data users and strengthening analytical and dissemination capacity of statistical service providers. The project will also focus on making statistical data easier to find and use. II. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE (PDO) A. PDO 16. The PDO is to strengthen the capacity of statistics producers in South Sudan to produce and disseminate official statistics. B. Project Beneficiaries 17. The main direct beneficiaries of the project will be official statistics producers in South Sudan led by the NBS. The NBS and other statistics producers will benefit from core reforms of the legal and institutional framework for statistics in South Sudan, investments in skills and equipment, training and technical assistance and financial support for statistical operations with the aim of building the capacity of statistics producers to produce and disseminate official statistics. 18. The second group of beneficiaries will be users of statistics in South Sudan, who will benefit from more relevant, accurate, accessible and timely data on socioeconomic conditions and characteristics. These include government agencies, researchers and academia, civil society organizations, businesses, national and international investors, and media and the international community including bilateral development partners and multilateral organizations. Interested and engaged citizens will also benefit from better access to information. The project will make 5 an effort to strengthen user-producer dialogue and improve the delivery performance of statistical service providers. C. PDO Level Results Indicators 19. The overall success of the project will be assessed on a number of different dimensions relating to the overall PDO. The main PDO-level indicators have been designed to measure the capacity of the statistical service to produce and disseminate official statistics and the change over time as a result of the Statistical Capacity Building (StatCap) project. PDO level indicators include: (i) Overall Statistical Capacity Score (SCI). This is a World Bank rating system of countries’ statistical capacity on the basis of: Methodology, Source Data and Periodicity. The SCI provides a good overview of a country’s ability to adhere to international standards and methods; (ii) Survey and Census Capacity Score as measured by the Tool for Assessing Statistical Capacity (TASC) developed by the US Census Bureau. The score can be broken down by: Institutional Capacity, Census/Survey Planning and Management, Mapping, Sampling, Questionnaire Design and Testing, Field Operations, Data Processing, Data Analysis and Evaluation and Data Dissemination. 20. At the intermediate level, progress and accomplishments will be measured in areas of legal and organizational reforms, skills development, data production and dissemination performance, and development and adoption of certain statistical standards and protocols. Intermediate indicators will include: (i) Legal framework for official statistics in South Sudan. More specifically, review of current statistics act completed and bill to amend statistics act drafted and ready for presentation to parliament; (ii) NBS organizational structure, HR policy and scheme of service. More specifically, organizational assessment of NBS completed and change management plan developed; (iii) Training plan implementation. More specifically, percentage of staff trained as agreed in training plan; (iv) Micro-data made available online through the revived micro-data library. More specifically, number of survey datasets documented, archived and made publically available through the revived micro-data library; (v) Surveys implemented under the project. More specifically, number of surveys carried out under the project. (vi) Adopted quality assurance framework including a compendium of standards, concepts and definitions, and a handbook of statistical policies and procedures; (vii) GIS data-layers stored and accessible through the GIS web-database. More specifically, number of GIS data-layers stored and accessible through the GIS web- database. 6 III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Components 21. The project has five components constituting a total investment of US$9 million equivalent. Each component is summarized below with estimated cost of activities in brackets. See annex 2 for a detailed project description. 22. Component A: Legal Reforms and Institutional Development (US$340,000 equivalent). Support to strengthen the Recipient’s legal and institutional framework for statistics including: (i) updating the Recipient’s legal and regulatory framework governing statistics; (ii) improving the governance and accountability of statistics producers, facilitating producer- producer cooperation and strengthening the dialogue between official statistics producers and the user community through establishing the relevant forums and working groups and developing policies, protocols and memoranda for collaboration; and (iii) reorganization of NBS structures, policies and procedures to align with corporate priorities, all through the provision of training and technical advisory services. 23. Activities under the component will support NBS to become the apex organization in a national statistical system consisting of multiple data producing agencies, a diverse community of users and several financiers of statistics. This will require an assessment of NBS’ current organizational structure and implementation of changes to align the organization with its corporate objectives. Preparations for these core reforms of the legal, institutional and organizational framework have been initiated already during the project preparation phase and will be running in parallel with other activities in the project. While the success of the reform efforts is essential to the long-term sustainability and performance of the statistical system, other project activities do not rely directly on their full completion during the project implementation period. Thus, realistic targets for the core reforms have been set and the activities will run in parallel with activities of other components. 24. Component B: Human Resource Development and Training (US$860,000 equivalent). Support to the Recipient to build capacity in data producing agencies, including development of the following: (i) the human resource function of NBS, including reviewing the scheme of service of government statisticians, developing and implementing a performance- based compensation system and improving human resource policies and procedures; (ii) a training plan for NSS staff and managers; (iii) a statistics curriculum for public universities in South Sudan and placement program for students to NBS; (iv) a mentoring program for key staff and managers of NBS, and (v) an assessment of competencies and training needs, all through the provision of training and technical advisory services. 25. The lack of skills needed to manage and operate an effective and efficient statistical service has been identified as a major constraint for NBS and other data producers. To address this, an assessment of training needs will be carried out across data producing agencies in South Sudan with the aim of compiling a training plan for staff and managers working in the agencies of the NSS. NBS will seek to deepen and broaden the academic collaboration with public universities in South Sudan, whereby selected universities will deliver some of the training needed and NBS will offer placement opportunities for university students to gain professional 7 experience from working in the statistical service. Internationally recognized universities and statistical training institutions in the region will also be engaged to deliver some of the training needed. To supplement classroom training, international experts will be engaged to deliver on- the-job training in various technical fields, and a mentoring program for middle and senior management will be developed and implemented. 26. Component C: Information and Communication Technology and Statistical Infrastructure Development (US$1,200,000 equivalent). Support to the Recipient to build information and communications (ICT) technology and statistical infrastructure, including: (i) the production of sample frames for surveys; (ii) the development of registers to supplement or facilitate statistical operations; (iii) the development of standards, concepts, definitions and protocols for statistical operations; (iv) the development of databases; (v) investments in ICT infrastructure; (vi) the development of Geographical Information Systems; (vii) the development of census tools; (viii) the establishment of a quality assurance framework for official statistics; and (ix) the development of plans and drawings for a new headquarters building for NBS, all through the provision of training, technical advisory services and the acquisition of goods. 27. Component D: Data Development and Dissemination (US$4,700,000 equivalent). Activities under this component will provide support to the Recipient to generate, process and disseminate data products and services, including: (i) statistical surveys and censuses; (ii) poverty maps and other analytical products; and (iii) data compilation frameworks such as the system of national accounts, all through the provision of technical advisory services and the acquisition of goods. 28. The main data generating activities supported by the project will be contained in this component. The project will support data collection, processing and dissemination of statistical products, which will produce detailed data disaggregated by socio-economic characteristics including sex, age, and location of residence. These include production of poverty maps based on the last census, the geographical information system (GIS) and the latest household surveys, strengthening of national accounts and economic statistics more generally by developing the compilation frameworks and production processes for macroeconomic data in close consultation with IMF, and a small number of key socio-economic statistical surveys. The proposed surveys to be financed under the project currently include: A Post-Crisis Survey, 2015 National Household Budget Survey, and the Integrated Business Survey 2017. The exact timing, scope, content and other details will be discussed and agreed prior to each survey but corporate priorities such as gender statistics will be centrally considered in preparation, collection, processing and analysis of the surveys. This component may also feature activities related to the planned Population and Housing Census. 29. Component E: Project Management (US$1,900,000 equivalent). Support to the Recipient to strengthen its capacity for project planning and budgeting, management, coordination, monitoring and evaluation activities, all through the provision of technical advisory services, training, operating costs and the acquisition of goods. 30. The Project Management component of the project is relatively comprehensive. The cost of doing business in South Sudan is high compared to other countries in the region and this 8 component will feature some substantive activities related to development of institutional capacity to implement projects of this scope and nature. The component will finance project planning and budgeting, management, monitoring and evaluation activities. NBS has formed an NSDS Coordination Team (NCT) drawing its members from the staff of NBS. The NCT will report to the Chairman of NBS. The NCT will be reinforced with short and extended-term consultants in areas of need. These specialists will help ensure compliance with procurement, disbursement and financial management policies and procedures, as well as train staff in NBS on fiduciary practices. Within the first two years of project implementation it is expected that all project management functions will be handled by NBS staff. 31. Sequencing and complementarity of project activities. Careful sequencing of project activities is essential for project success. The first priority is to establish a solid foundation for project management including strengthening the necessary management and fiduciary functions in NBS, establishing coordination and oversight bodies, and instituting an annual cycle of planning, implementation and reporting with an accompanying suite of annual plans and annual and quarterly financial and progress reports. Another priority task will be to improve NBS’ accounting system. To facilitate and guide day-to day operations, a Project Operations Manual (POM) will be developed and adopted. Furthermore, assessments of training needs and ICT needs will be conducted, and reviews will be done of the organizational structure, staffing HR policy, scheme of service and information dissemination policies, and used to inform project interventions in these areas. B. Project Financing 32. Six-year Investment Project Financing (IPF). This is an IPF project of US$9 million equivalent, which will be allocated to the following components and main activities: Table 1: Project Financing by Components and Main Activities Project Components Project cost (US$ million) % Financing A. Legal Reform and Institutional Development 0.34 4% B. Human Resource Development and Training 0.86 10% C. ICT and Statistical Infrastructure Development 1.20 13% Of which: GIS Development 0.25 3% ICT equipment (hardware, software, networks) 0.50 6% D. Data Development and Dissemination 4.70 52% Of which: Statistical Surveys 4.60 51% E. Project Management Cost 1.90 21% Total Costs 9.00 100% 33. Alignment between DPs and government priorities. DPs are coordinated and aligned with government priorities. The preferred funding modality of GRSS for the NSDS is a single, pooled funding mechanism managed by NBS. However, due to NBS’ lack of experience with donor-funded projects, most DPs have decided to either manage their fund themselves or through third parties. Thus, a pooled fund is not viable for the first phase of the project. However, all DPs 9 have agreed to coordinate their activities very closely and align as much as possible with the GRSS priorities as set out in the NSDS. 34. Close coordination means that DPs are committed to adhering to common planning, implementation, and coordination, fiduciary and reporting mechanisms. NBS will draft and encourage DPs to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with the GRSS to this effect. This is also consistent with the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness and the Government’s aim to develop a sector-wide approach to improve harmonization of funding across the NSS. The intention is to improve efficiency and minimize reporting and management burden. 35. GRSS has managed to secure firm pledges for support for the NSDS as follows: Table 2: Secured Pledges in Support of the South Sudan NSDS Financial Agency Topic Commitment (US$ million) World Bank, recipient-executed IDA-credit Various topics within all NSDS components 9.0 World Bank-executed HFSSS TF funded Multiple rounds of a High-Frequency Household 3.2 by DfID (HH) survey: socio-economic and market data Various topics within four pillars: 1) Economic Statistics Norway-managed program Statistics, 2) Welfare Monitoring, 3) Capacity 4.0 funded by Government of Norway Building and 4) Statistical Infrastructure IMF-managed Capacity Building TF Primarily Technical Assistance within *2.0 funded by DfID. macroeconomic statistics Maternal Mortality Rate Survey, DevInfo, Crisis UNICEF/UNDP/UNFPA-managed and Recovery Mapping and Analysis (CRMA) *4.0 activities funded by various sources. and other GIS-related activities. Total financial and in-kind pledges for the NSDS, including the IDA-credit, as of May *22.2 2014 Note: “*” means estimated amount. IV. IMPLEMENTATION A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 36. NBS as main implementing agency. NBS will be the main agency responsible for implementation, coordination and management of the project. NBS has been the lead agency in the development of the NSDS and NBS will also be in charge of overall management, reporting and coordination with partners and stakeholders during the implementation. To facilitate the daily tasks, NBS has appointed a NCT with members from among NBS’ own staff and management. The NCT is headed by an NSDS Coordinator (team leader) and include an Information and Technology (IT) specialist, procurement and financial management specialists and an expert on human resource management. Initially it will also be necessary to recruit external assistance to fill gaps in skills and experience and to train and build capacity of NBS’ own staff primarily with procurement and financial management. The NCT will be responsible for day-to-day coordination of NSDS activities, including those of NBS and statistics producing units in government ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs); and assist MDAs with 10 coordination and alignment of their work and training programs. The team leader of the NCT will report directly to the NBS Chairman. The team will also assist the NBS Chairman by compiling summaries of sector working statistics groups’ reports and preparation of progress reports to the JNF. 37. NBS will execute all project activities on behalf of the Government. The fiduciary and reporting arrangements will be a key distinguishing feature of this project. The flow of funds from the WB to project activities and the reverse flow of financial and progress reports will differ from many other externally financed projects in South Sudan by being the responsibility of the recipient, NBS. This is likely to pose special challenges in the beginning, and a focused effort will have to be made to reinforce NBS’ current financial and administrative capacity. This will be done by recruiting financial management and procurement experts, who will train NBS staff and assist in developing detailed manuals and protocols for the fiduciary functions. Furthermore, an accounting system will be established, which can be used for planning and budgeting, recording and tracking expenditures and producing regular financial reports. The World Bank will provide intensive implementation support to guide the counterpart, including regular capacity assessments and training. 38. High-level NSDS Steering Committee (NSC) to facilitate implementation and coordination among Government MDAs. A high-level NSC will be established to facilitate implementation and coordination among government MDAs. The South Sudan statistics system suffers from poor coordination and communication between data producing units in government. This could lead to the emergence of different standards, concepts and definitions, duplication of efforts and a waste of scarce resources. To address this, it has been agreed that a NSC will be formed with the overall responsibility of ensuring high-level coordination across the national statistics system. Specifically, the NSC will be responsible for: (a) providing support and resolving any constraints that may hamper development and operations of the national statistics system, and which will require intervention from other ministries or arms of Government; (b) providing policy direction on matters relating to NSDS implementation; (c) reviewing and endorsing work programs and progress reports; and (d) promoting inter-agency collaboration, coordination and cooperation with regards to standards, concepts and definitions and statistical activities; and supporting external assessments and evaluations as needed. The NSC will primarily consist of senior managers from participating MDAs. 39. Joint NSDS Forum (JNF). A joint forum will be established for GRSS-DP consultation and dialogue about statistical plans and budgets, performance reports and other issues requiring attention. This forum will also be a useful venue for new development partners to join the sector and for existing partners to reaffirm their commitments to the NSDS. The NSDS Monitoring Forum will be co-chaired by NBS and a central development partner. The JNF will meet quarterly. 40. Establishing Sector Statistics Working Groups (SSWGs). The SSWGs will be the ground-level forums for producer-producer coordination, collaboration and technical discussions and for consultations between users and producers at the individual sector or thematic level. The SSWGs will address the need to align and coordinate statistical activities within the NSS in order to avoid duplication, and increase efficiency and harmonization across data producing entities in 11 government. NBS will provide either the chair or the secretariat to each SSWG. Since 2007 NBS has been chairing an interagency group called South Sudan Information Management Working Group (IMWG), which has had as its primary task to develop capacity to produce, analyze and use spatial information and to develop the GIS database at NBS. The new SSWGs will be modeled after the IMWG. SSWGs are planned in macroeconomic statistics, business statistics and social statistics. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation 41. Managing for results. The NCT in NBS will be responsible for NSDS results monitoring and reporting. A core set of PDO level indicators and intermediate indicators with baselines, milestones and targets have been agreed. The results framework and detailed explanation of indicators are specified in Annex 1. Progress towards meeting the agreed targets for each indicator will be reported in the annual report of NBS. The PDO level indicators will focus on monitoring the increases in capacity of the NBS and other statistics producers to produce and disseminate official statistics. This will be done by applying specialized assessments of capacity and by reviewing the performance of the statistical system based on an internationally recognized Statistical Capacity Index Score, which is broadly correlated with compliance with data reporting requirements to international organizations. 42. Multiple sources of information for monitoring and evaluation. NBS will draw information to monitor and evaluate performance from a host of different sources. Some will be based on third-party assessments, some on direct feedback from beneficiaries. Others will be self-assessments. Examples include: a) direct feedback from the main users of statistical products and services through user consultations, b) assessments using publically available facts about the state of the statistical system, e.g. availability of mandatory and voluntary data submissions to international agencies, c) simple counts of data releases against agreed targets, and d) third party assessments of capacity within certain aspects of the statistical business processes and/or the quality of individual statistical sectors. Some performance indicators related to legal and institutional reforms will be based on objectively verified accomplishments compared to agreed targets. C. Sustainability 43. Strong government ownership but fiscal constraints. Strong government ownership but fiscal constraints remain a challenge. As described elsewhere, the GRSS has demonstrated strong leadership and ownership by identifying statistics as a key priority sector in the country’s medium-term development plan and by developing and adopting a comprehensive and integrated strategy for the statistics sector as a whole. Multiple stakeholders from inside and outside of government have been consulted in the design phase and NBS has chaired lengthy debates that resulted in the strategy and its accompanying work program. 44. The long-term sustainability of these efforts depends crucially on a continued flow of resources to the sector. Statistical service providers in South Sudan, like other government agencies, have been adversely affected by the ongoing revenue crisis. The situation has made it difficult for NBS to continue operations and to retain key staff and managers. While DP funding has played a key part in keeping NBS afloat at times of fiscal stress, this will not be a sustainable 12 solution for the long term. For sustained improvements, GRSS will have to allocate more resources to the statistical service. V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES 45. Risk management. Careful management of risks is required. South Sudan is a high risk environment. A multitude of factors exist that could derail the project if not handled well. These mostly pertain to the weak capacity of NBS and other statistics producers and the lack of experience with planning, executing and accounting for externally-financed activities. Moreover, while NBS has sought to keep the project design simple, it remains a multi-stakeholder, multi- topic effort, which will require careful management of resources, activities and stakeholders. Program and donor risks are less pronounced in the sense that this project, while coordinated with other DPs, has been designed to succeed as a stand-alone operation. Social and environmental risks are negligible. The table below summarizes risk ratings. A. Risk Ratings Summary Table Table 3: Risk Rating Risk Category Rating Stakeholder Risk Moderate Implementing Agency Risk - Capacity High - Governance Substantial Project Risk - Design High - Social and Environmental Low - Program and Donor Moderate - Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability High Overall Implementation Risk High B. Overall Risk Rating Explanation 46. The most important risks pertain to financial management and procurement capacity. The Financial Management systems across government agencies are still undeveloped in South Sudan. Capacity is low to prepare budgets that set physical and financial targets in sufficient detail to monitor subsequent performance and properly account and report on funds utilization. NBS’s current accounting system and practices are especially weak and will be addressed as a matter of priority through the Project Advance from the Project Preparation Facility. 47. Bank procurement experience in South Sudan shows: (a) significant delays in procurement processing with significant part of the time spent on preparation of tender specifications, Terms of Reference (ToRs) and evaluation; (b) the market for goods is nascent, cost of goods and services is high; and (c) there is a four month window of opportunity during the dry season within which most of the country is accessible. These experiences are being factored in the design of procurement arrangements. The procurement risk mitigation strategy is described in Annex 3. 13 48. Overall risk rating. Overall risk rating is High. Substantial risks are present, especially due to implementing agency capacity constraints. A risk mitigation plan has been designed which includes the following elements: i) targeted technical assistance to weak functions and areas, and training of key staff working in these functions; ii) development of detailed manuals, policies and operating procedures for weak areas; iii) strong implementation support from WB to overall project implementation and to key components and activities; iv) strong senior management leadership from NBS; and v) efforts to build a coalition of senior government officials to support and facilitate implementation of the NSDS. Annex 4 presents the ORAF, with a summary of risks, planned mitigation measures and responsibilities. VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 49. More and better information as the basis for sound decision-making. The over- arching objective of the NSDS and this project is to expand the information and knowledge base in South Sudan to enable decision-makers at all levels to make better decisions. Since it is not possible to assign a specific value on the ability to make better decisions, a traditional cost- benefit analysis has not been attempted. However, it is accepted that every country needs a basic set of commonly accepted stylized facts about its people, economy, society and environment, which can be used in the public discourse and to make informed decisions. The NSDS with the support of this project will create that informational foundation, that leads to improved targeting of public services, attracts investment, better targets infrastructure investments and can indirectly contribute to job creation. 50. Public financing of public information. Official national statistics is by its nature a public good and is in most countries financed out of public funds. The cost of producing statistics varies from country to country depending on local circumstances. In countries with advanced administrative systems and procedures, a lot of information will usually be stored in administrative registers throughout government agencies. In such settings, the added cost of producing statistics can be relatively small compared to countries where information has to be obtained by visiting and interviewing respondents in households or business establishments. South Sudan is a relatively high-cost environment for statistics. Few administrative procedures are in place to record household interaction with government, and internet-related data sources (“big data”) are scarce or incomplete. This means that presently the only way to obtain statistics on social and economic phenomena is to survey households and enterprises at the source, i.e. at home or at the place of business. The most cost effective way to do that is to maintain adequate sampling frames from which to draw appropriately-sized samples and administer questionnaires to a representative subset of the population. The improved capacity, which will be built by this project, to create and maintain adequate sampling frames and draw efficient samples, will save resources and improve data reliability over time. 51. The World Bank is uniquely positioned to add value to the Government’s efforts to develop the statistics sector. The World Bank can add value to South Sudan’s effort to develop its statistical capacity and National Statistical System. The World Bank has in-house expertise in a range of areas related to the statistical business process, including efficient sample design, 14 questionnaire design, survey tools and technology and international best practice in survey and census implementation. The World Bank can also bring world-class expertise to bear in areas of analysis and dissemination of data and statistics related to household characteristics, living conditions and poverty. Furthermore, the World Bank can use its unique position in the national and international policy debate to bring data and statistics into the public policy discourse. Finally, the World Bank hosts the leading repositories of micro- and macro-data related to development issues. This, coupled with the Bank’s long-standing experience in advising clients on the design and implementation of statistical capacity building operations, makes the World Bank a unique and ideal partner for South Sudan in its efforts to develop the national statistical system. B. Technical 52. Technical design. The technical design of the project is based on a careful study of the goals, gaps and needs outlined in the NSDS 2014-19 and intensive consultations with staff and management of NBS and other statistics producers, the main users, development partners and other stakeholders. The design of the project is in line with international best practice as recommended by the Partnership in Statistics for Development in 21st Century (PARIS21), an initiative that aims to promote the better use and production of statistics throughout the developing world. The overall project design is similar to many other StatCap projects financed by the Bank since 2004. 53. Contribution to the project objectives. All components and activities of the project will contribute to the achievement of the project objectives. NBS has appointed a project team and key technical staff who will be responsible for individual components and the main activities. The core Bank team (Task Team Leader, Financial Management Specialist and Procurement Specialist) has been augmented with staff and consultants who can lead the dialogue on components of particular importance. Full implementation of project activities will result in a stronger, better coordinated and more responsive statistical system with a broader and deeper suite of statistical products and services. C. Financial Management 54. The Financial Management (FM) assessment indicates that there are capacity challenges that are likely to affect the proposed project, including lack of key financial management competencies and internal controls at the ministry level to manage the proposed project. To mitigate this risk and strengthen the financial management structure, a qualified project accountant will be engaged in the NBS to work closely with NCT. The audit for the project will be carried out by the Audit Chamber with support of an External Audit Agent which will be engaged with funds partly contributed by the project. The POM will include a Financial Procedures Manual which incorporates relevant accounting procedures. Detailed FM arrangements are documented in Annex 3. 55. The financial management risk for the proposed project is assessed to be substantial. An action plan to address the weaknesses that have been identified and to ensure the FM system is robust and strengthened has been prepared. Some of these activities and actions are to be 15 completed prior to credit effectiveness through a Project Advance and these will be monitored on an on-going basis during implementation. The details of the action plan are in Annex 3. D. Procurement 56. In South Sudan, public procurement is governed by the Interim Public Procurement and Disposal Regulations (IPPDR), 2006. The Government is preparing a new Procurement Law which is at Draft Bill stage and expected to be enacted in the coming months. As for the IPPDR, the draft Bill designates the Ministry of Finance as the only procuring entity and all other MDAs would have to apply to be designated as procuring entities by the Minister of Finance. All procurement for the project is envisaged to be conducted by NBS. At present NBS is not a designated procuring entity as per the requirements of IPPDR. NBS has assured that it will get designated after fulfilling the requirements in the very near future. 57. Procurement for the proposed project will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s “Guidelines: Procurement of Goods, Works and Non Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011, “Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011 and the “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants”, dated October 15, 2006 and revised in January 2011. National Competitive Bidding (NCB) shall be in accordance with procedures acceptable to the Bank. Also, since South Sudan is on the current list of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS) countries, paragraph 11 of Bank Operational Policy (OP) 10.00 will be triggered to allow the application of the flexibility detailed in the Guidance to World Bank staff: Simplified Procurement Procedures in Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints, April 2013. 58. The Bank team conducted a procurement assessment of the NBS. At present there are two staff members associated with procurement work in NBS; one purchase officer and one logistics officer. However, they have very little experience of procurement. Thus, the NCT, which will be responsible for implementing the project, including activities related to procurement, will have to be strengthened with TA of a hired experienced procurement consultant. Besides the Procurement Specialist, the NTC will include a Project Coordinator, IT specialist, Financial Management Specialist, and HR expert. However, it is being emphasized that counterpart procurement staff need to be available so that further capacity is built up in the NBS in the field of procurement. 59. Bank procurement experience in South Sudan has shown that: (a) significant delays are experienced in procurement processing, with significant part of the time spent on preparation of tender specifications, ToRs and evaluation; (b) market for goods is nascent, cost of goods and services is high; and (c) there is a six month window of opportunity during the dry season within which most of the country is accessible. These experiences are being factored in the design of procurement arrangements. 60. The overall procurement risk for the project is considered high. In order to mitigate the risks identified in the fiduciary assessment, an action plan has been prepared in consultation with NBS and is included in Annex 3. 16 E. Environmental and Social Safeguard 61. Environmental safeguard. No environmental safeguards policies are triggered. 62. Social safeguard: nurturing the data eco-system. No social safeguards policies are triggered by this project. Besides NBS, the national statistics system also consists of users, financiers and a host of official data producers from across government. The success of the statistical service depends on the use of data in decision-making in South Sudan. Evidence-based decision making is still not widespread in South Sudan, but it is expanding as more and better data becomes available. The project will aim to work with key facilitators to increase the demand and use of data. These include academics. Close collaboration with public universities has been planned both in terms of attaching graduate students to NBS, but also to support university researchers in accessing and analyzing socio-economic data. The field work will involve relevant government agencies and local authorities. Should there be a need to obtain data from individual households, the project will include consultations with communities to ensure they are informed about the purposes of the data-gathering. 17 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring . Country: South Sudan Project Name: South Sudan Statcap (P144139) . Table 1.1: Results Framework Project Development Objectives . PDO Statement The development objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity of statistics producers in South Sudan to produce and disseminate official statistics. These results are at Project Level . Project Development Objective Indicators Responsibility Cumulative Target Values Data Source/ for Methodology Data Indicator Name Core Unit Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 YR5 Frequency Collection Percentage Overall Statistical Annually, 26 32 37 43 43 44 SCI World Bank Capacity Score (SCI) September Percentage Survey and Census 1 2014, 2017 TBD TBD TBD TASC NBS Capacity Score and 2019 1 The baseline assessment of survey and census capacity will be conducted by the US Census Bureau prior to effectiveness. The assessment will yield an overall score and scores by sub-categories. The overall score will be used as a key performance indicator in the results framework. There is a plan in place, a budget available and an estimated date to begin the baseline assessment. 18 Intermediate Results Indicators Responsibility Cumulative Target Values Data Source/ for Unit of Methodology Data Collection Indicator Name Core Baseline YR1 YR2 YR3 YR4 YR5 Frequency Measure NBS is operating under Revised Draft Legal SSCCSE Act Statistics Act regulations framework for Statistics Act, Text of 2011, developed developed Annually NBS official statistics Regulations which is and bill ready for in South Sudan currently drafted adoption being revised New organogram proposed. Organizational NBS New HR assessment Change organizational policy, completed. HR Implementation Organizational management Minutes, structure, HR scheme of development of change and HR Text strategy Annually assessments NBS policy and service and strategy management restructuring developed and plans scheme of change developed, strategy complete and adopted service management discussed and strategy not adopted yet developed. Percentage Training plan, Training Plan No training NBS HR 50% 60% 70% 80% 100% Annually training Implementation plan Department evaluation 19 Micro-data made available NBS website online through Number 0 6 7 8 9 Annually micro-data NBS the revived library micro-data library Surveys implemented Number 0 1 2 3 Annually NBS Website NBS under the project Adopted quality assurance framework Handbooks, including a Compendium guides and compendium of No quality of standards, Compendium, statistical standards, assurance concepts and Policy procedures Annually NBS concepts and framework definition Documents, manual definitions, and exists. developed Handbooks. developed and a handbook of and adopted adopted statistical Text policies and procedures. GIS data-layers stored and NBS, Department Number GIS web- accessible 4 7 10 12 14 16 Annually of GIS/RS & database through the GIS Cartography web-database Note: Values are preliminary. Baselines, milestones and targets will be finally established by effectiveness. . Note 20 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring, continued . Country: South Sudan Project Name: South Sudan Statcap (P144139) . Table 1.2: Results Framework . Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.) Overall Statistical Capacity Score The Statistical Capacity Indicator provides an overview of the statistical capacity of developing countries. It is based on a diagnostic framework developed with a view to assessing the capacity of statistical systems. The framework consists of three assessment areas: methodology; data sources; and periodicity and timeliness (institutional framework has not been included in score calculation). Countries are scored against specific criteria in these areas, using input provided by countries and/or publicly available information. A composite score for each assessment area and an overall score combining all three areas are derived for each country on a scale of 0-100. A score of 100 indicates that the country meets all the criteria. Survey and Census Capacity Score This indicator provides a quantitative score of the overall capacity of NSO to conduct surveys and censuses. The US Census Bureau Tool for Assessing Statistical Capacity (TASC) will be administered three times to establish baselines, mid-term and completion scores. . Intermediate Results Indicators Indicator Name Description (indicator definition etc.) Legal framework for official statistics in South Sudan This indicator will provide information on the status of the new legal framework for official statistics in South Sudan. NBS organizational structure, HR policy and scheme of This indicator will provide information on the progress in restructuring NBS and change of service HR regime. Training Plan Implementation This indicator will provide information on the implementation status of the agreed training plan. Micro-data made available online through the revived This indicator will measure the performance of NBS with regards to documenting, archiving 21 micro-data library and disseminating anonymized, public-use file data sets and survey reports. Surveys implemented under the project This indicator will measure the performance of NBS to implement the planned surveys. Adopted quality assurance framework including a This indicator will measure progress in developing the needed concepts, standards and compendium of standards, concepts and definitions, and a definition and policies and procedures to improving quality and consistency in statistical handbook of statistical policies and procedures. operations. GIS data-layers stored and accessible through the GIS This indicator will measure how many datasets are stored in the GIS web-database hosted by web-database NBS. 22 Annex 2: Detailed Project Description South Sudan: Statistical Capacity Building Project (Statcap) (P144139) 1. The National Strategy for Development of Statistics 2014-19 (NSDS). The NSDS 2014-19 is the guiding document for this project. The vision of the NSDS 2014-19 is “to establish an integrated, professional, efficient and effective national statistical system, which will serve all stakeholders and support sustainable social and economic development of South Sudan”. The World Bank will seek to closely align its support for statistics in South Sudan with the statistical priorities as set out in the NSDS and the implementation arrangements and financing modalities proposed by the Government of South Sudan. The detailed project description in this annex draws heavily on the Government’s own assessment of gaps and needs and strategic objectives as set out in the NSDS 2014-19 in addition to intensive consultations between WB staff and staff and managers of NBS and other MDAs. 2. The Project Development Objective (PDO). The PDO will be to strengthen the capacity of statistics producers in South Sudan to produce and disseminate official statistics. This will be done by: i. developing the legal framework for statistics in South Sudan; ii. improving the institutional environment for official statistics by enhancing producer-producer coordination and collaboration, and by enhancing user- producer dialogue; iii. assessing and restructuring NBS to align the organizational chart with NBS’ corporate priorities; iv. strengthening essential administrative, coordination and management functions in NBS, including strategic management, human resource management, financial management and procurement management; v. advocating and sensitizing decision-makers on the use and interpretation of statistics; vi. investing in training and skills development for staff and managers across the NSS; vii. developing sampling frames and statistical registers needed in the statistical production process; viii. developing and adopting standards, concepts and definitions, policies and procedures, and manuals and protocols to standardize the statistical production process from data collection to dissemination and establishing a system of quality assurance; ix. upgrading and expanding the use of ICT equipment to collect, process and disseminate statistics; 23 x. Conducting a few essential household-based and establishment-based surveys and developing the compilation framework for national accounts. Component A: Legal Reforms and Institutional Development 3. Revision of Statistical Legislation. The NBS’ operations are governed by the SSCCSE Act of 2011, which is now being revised. The NBS management has recognized the importance and urgency of revising its law to ensure that it conforms to the best international practices regarding the status of the statistical system as articulated in the UN Statistical Commission’s Fundamental Principles of Statistics. The current legal framework for statistics in South Sudan is inadequate for several reasons. The legislation suffers from weak governance and accountability arrangements with no legal separation of the political level and the statistical service. The “chairperson” of NBS is also the chief executive of NBS reporting directly to the President’s Office. Furthermore, there is a lack of appropriate regulations and policies to promulgate the statistics act. The weak mandate of NBS to coordinate the sector has led to a fragmented and uncoordinated institutional environment resulting in a lack of coordination and collaboration between data producers. Consultation and dialogue with users of statistics is sparse and unsystematic. The organizational structure of NBS has to be aligned of with its corporate objectives. 4. Providing a legal and institutional framework for effective planning. The revised Act will provide a legal and institutional framework for effective planning, with a mandate for coordination and supervision of the entire NSS. The NBS will have a semi-autonomous status with a Board of Directors (BoD) as the highest policy making and oversight body. The BoD will comprise members drawn from government institutions, the private sector, civil society and academic and research communities. 5. Responsibility of the NBS. Within this framework of the NSS, the NBS shall be the main government agency responsible for the development and management of statistical information in the country. It shall also be the authoritative source and the custodian of official statistical information in South Sudan. The implementation of the proposed changes will involve the establishment of the NBS Board of Directors, restructuring of the organizational setup of the NBS, and putting in place sound mechanisms for effective planning, coordination and supervision of the entire National Statistical System. In the proposed new NBS structure, the Bureau will be headed by a Statistician General who reports to the Board of Directors. It will have two Directorates, the Directorate of Statistical Production and that of Finance and Administration. 6. Strengthening user-relations. User-relations will be strengthened on a number of fronts. Dissemination is a critical function of the statistical production process, and it takes effort and resources to do well. The first step to improve the dissemination function is to identify users and engage them more systematically. Users of statistical information differ not only in the type of data they demand and subject matter of interest, but also in how they prefer the data is presented. Some sophisticated users will be satisfied with raw data streams with little additional explanation, while others, probably most in South Sudan, will need thorough and detailed reports with intensive explanation and visualization in addition to other types of assistance in interpreting the data. All types of users will be catered for in the project. 24 7. Necessary core reforms. Core Reforms are necessary for the long-term health and sustainability of the South Sudan statistical system and to comply with international best practice and fundamental principles of official statistics. Preparations for the core reforms of the legal, institutional and organizational frameworks have been initiated already during the project preparation phase and will be running in parallel with other activities in the project. While the success of the reform efforts is essential to the long-term sustainability and performance of the statistical system other project activities do not rely directly on their full completion during the project implementation period. Thus, realistic targets for the core reforms have been set and the activities will run in parallel with activities of other components. 8. Main outputs of component A. The main outputs of component A will be: a draft revised statistics act with accompanying regulations ready to be presented to Parliament, an organizational assessment of NBS has been conducted and a revised draft of NBS’ organizational chart and scheme of service for staff and management of NBS has been produced. New tools and forums for producer-producer cooperation and user-producer consultation, and a new information dissemination policy have been developed. Component B: Human Resource Development and Training 9. Inadequate skills and basic knowledge of the staff. Many staff members of NBS the MDAs have inadequate skills and basic knowledge for data collection, compilation and dissemination. Limited training opportunities at the local and national level have constrained the NSS’ ability to develop statistical skills of its staff. Lack of basic statistical training and knowledge of recent international standards and methods has affected the NSS’ ability to harmonize or standardize its data collection and compilation across the MDAs. There is a strong demand from most MDAs within the NSS for a coordinated approach to provision of statistical training. During the NSDS preparation process, the MDAs appealed to the NBS to develop a long-term strategy for human resource development, including carrying out regular statistical training to increase knowledge and improve skills of statistical staff across the NSS. 10. Improving training. The NBS and the entire NSS will need well-qualified and trained staff to deliver the statistical program envisaged in the NSDS. A human resource framework and system to improve personnel selection and training, improve staff performance incentives, as well as improving the remuneration system through linkage to performance, and developing job specifications for career development of managers and regular statistical staff of the NBS, and other official MDAs, will be developed. This improved human resource management is expected to result in the retention of well-motivated and qualified statistical staff leading to increased productivity. 11. NBS’s staff nomination. Only about half of NBS’ staff nomination is filled. The NBS has a total staff nomination of 240 professional posts (excluding drivers, cleaners and security). This includes those at the 10 state offices. About half of these posts have not been filled. The reason for failure to fill all the posts provided for in the nominal roll is partly attributed to long delays by the public service to appoint identified candidates. Lack of people with relevant statistical qualifications may also be contributing to lack of appropriate and relevant staff. The 25 production of statistics in the NBS and MDAs mainly depends on consultants and technical assistance. Most of the NBS staff members lack knowledge in the use of major statistics software packages such as SPSS, CSPRo, or Stata. This situation also applies to virtually all the MDAs in South Sudan. Recruitment, training and a re-alignment of incentives will be needed to address this weakness within NSS, and will form a major component of statistical capacity building during the NSDS implementation period. 12. Desire for deeper academic collaboration between statistics producers and centers for higher education and research. Higher education and research institutions are being established in South Sudan with Juba University being the most prominent institution. Juba University and other public universities have expressed an interest in developing their statistical curricula, training programs and placement opportunities for students and graduates. Academics and researchers are on the other hand interested in getting better access to more and higher quality research data. NBS and Juba University and other public universities are discussing possibilities for broadening and deepening collaboration. So far it has been agreed that NBS will collaborate with public universities in developing the statistics curriculum for relevant faculties, enhance exchange programs for staff and students of the institutions and further develop academic and research collaboration. 13. Main outputs for component B. The main outputs of component B will be: a training needs assessment and training plan. A number of completed training sessions (exact number to be decided after needs analysis has been completed); and statistics curricula for selected public universities and a program for attachment of university students to NBS. Component C: Information and Communication Technology and Statistical Infrastructure Development 14. Administrative registers and sampling frames. Administrative registers and sampling frames are essential elements in the statistical production process. Administrative registers contain data records that have been created as a byproduct of an administrative process. While administrative data has not been created to serve statistical purposes per se, it can be of tremendous value in the statistical production process. Either as a way to supplement the universe from which statistical samples can be drawn, or by using administrative data as proxies for the phenomena that would otherwise be examined through sample surveys. Some of the benefits of using administrative records include: reduced response burden, cost reductions compared to expensive field surveys, potentially shorter lag times from reference period to dissemination etc. 15. The NBS needs to develop and maintain at least two key statistical registers: a national household (population) register and a central register of establishments/enterprises (statistical business register). This will be done by combining existing administrative registers, e.g. the tax payer registry and administrative business register for the statistical business register; and the civil registration system (for the household and population register), with field listing exercises. Field work will be important in South Sudan, since administrative sources are likely to be flawed and incomplete. 26 16. Other administrative sources that could be useful either as proxies for statistical aggregates of interest, or to complement the sampling frames include: the Database of Petroleum and Mining Operations in South Sudan, Education Management Information System (EMIS), Health Management Information System (HMIS), and Financial Management Information System (FMIS). The project will support the development and use of relevant databases for statistical purposes. 17. Quality assurance frameworks. Quality assurance frameworks are important tools for the statistical service to increase performance and comply with international best practice. Quality in relation to official statistics can be measured along several dimensions e.g.: relevance of the data to users, accuracy (including both sampling and non-sampling error), timeliness, accessibility, standardization and comparability across time and space. One of the first steps in building a quality assurance framework will be to compile a compendium of statistical definitions, concepts and methodologies. Secondly, the statistical producers will have to develop and adopt national classifications and codes based on standardized international classifications, e.g. ISIC Rev. 4. Finally, a number of handbooks and manuals will be developed to cover different aspects of the statistical production process, and metadata will be developed for each statistical area and indicator. 18. ICT and database development. NBS aims to disseminate much of its data through its website and a number of databases have been developed or are in the process of being developed to facilitate this. A lot of support is needed to take web-dissemination to the next stage. First of all, NBS suffers from outdated and insufficient ICT resources including AV-equipment and computer hardware, software and networks. Secondly, the bureau often lacks internet connectivity or the internet works but at low upload and download speeds. To address these issues a number of things need to be done. First a thorough assessment of ICT needs will be conducted followed by the development of an ICT strategy. Then investments in upgrading of the ICT hardware, software and networks will follow. Furthermore, efforts will be made to develop the databases and websites through data is disseminated, including the defunct micro- data library and further development of the GIS database. 19. Main outputs of component C. The main outputs of component C will be: updated survey sampling frames, increased use of administrative data for statistical purposes, a revamped website for NBS, a revived micro-data library with well-documented and archived survey datasets with easy access for users, upgraded ICT systems and further development of the Geographical Information Systems (GIS), quality assessment framework for statistics, compendium of concepts and definition, adopted standards and protocols, technical specifications and drawings for the NBS building. Component D: Data Development and Dissemination 20. Building the foundations of a core statistical program. The NSS suffers from a lack of financial resources for survey activities. Surveys in Africa, and in South Sudan in particular, are usually very expensive due to the size of the country, long distances between human settlements, relatively dispersed population and poor state of the infrastructure. The bulk of the proceeds from this credit will be spent on data generating activities. The advantage of this approach in 27 relation to capacity building is based on the notion that skills and systems are most effectively developed through learning-by-doing and working alongside experts in the field. Although the South Sudanese data eco-system is still in its infancy and challenges abound, it is realistic to try to establish a basic statistical program comprising essential aggregates and indicators describing: (i) the human condition in South Sudan (e.g. household amenities and assets, income, expenditure, consumption, health, employment etc.), (ii) business characteristics (e.g. payrolls, sales, cost etc.), and (iii) the macroeconomic environment (e.g. aggregate production, value- added, investment, consumption, government finances and imports and exports), with corporate priority of gender statistics. This requires that a few essential household-based surveys and an enterprise survey are developed and conducted. Furthermore, compilation frameworks such as the system of national accounts (SNA) will need to be further developed and refined. NBS also aims to develop a few highly sophisticated statistical products such as poverty maps, which will require analysis and combination of several surveys and censuses. 21. Outputs of component D. Outputs of this component will be: key analytical products, such as poverty maps, new GIS data layers, annual GDP estimates which will become gradually more accurate and more granular by industries and institutional sectors, and a few essential statistical surveys such as a proposed post-crisis survey, household budget survey and integrated business survey, which will produce detailed data disaggregated by socio-economic characteristics including sex, age, and location of residence. Improving gender statistics is one of the corporate priorities and it will be centrally considered in preparation, collection, processing and analysis of the surveys. The goal is to document, archive and publish all survey analytical reports, questionnaires and anonymized datasets financed by the StatCap and other sources through the revived micro-data library. Component E: Project Management Costs 22. Importance of project management in attaining full program implementation. Careful project management is crucial to attain full program implementation. The spirit and objectives of the NSDS are ambitious and its success depends on bringing together and coordinating a diverse set of stakeholders comprising users, producers and financiers of official statistics. This component will include funds and activities related to project management. GRSS has expressed that a single common funding mechanism, e.g. a multi-partner basket fund, managed by NBS, is the preferred modality for DP support for the NSDS. Although it is unlikely that a basket fund arrangement will be tried in the near term, DPs have agreed to harmonize their support as much as possible and align their support to the priorities and activities as set out in the NSDS. The World Bank is the only partner at this stage which will channel funds directly to NBS and expects NBS to fully manage funds and report on spending. Most other partners will handle funds themselves or through third-party managed TFs. However, NBS aims to strengthen its fiduciary functions and project management capabilities, through the support of the World Bank, to convince more partners to channel funds directly to NBS and integrate modalities for support in the future. 23. The project will finance a few temporary posts during the initial phase, including a procurement specialist, financial management specialist, and an M&E specialist. These specialists will ensure compliance with procurement, disbursement, and FM policies and 28 procedures as well as agreed reporting requirements. The consultants will work alongside with staff from NBS and build local capacity. Within the first two years of project implementation, it is expected that core NBS staff will take over these responsibilities. 24. Outputs of component E. Outputs of this component include: timely financial and progress reports, audits, project manuals and reviews and workshops. Capacity built of NBS staff to manage donor-funded activities. 25. Sequencing and complementarity of project activities. Careful sequencing of project activity is essential for successful project implementation. The tentative timing of project activities is set out in the Integrated Work Plan accompanying the South Sudan National Strategy for Development of Statistics 2014-19 covering the five years of the project. The integrated work plan will be updated on an annual basis and adjusted to changing priorities and circumstances. At the outset, the sequencing of activities is expected to be as follows: i) Pre-effectiveness. A number of activities will be launched prior to project effectiveness. These will primarily be financed from the Project Advance (PA). Pre- effectiveness activities include, but are not limited to: a. Establishment of main oversight and coordination bodies, monitoring forums and working groups. b. Hiring of external support to reinforce the NSDS Coordination Team (NCT) primarily within financial management, procurement and project management. Technical assistance will also be provided to other key managerial and administrative functions in the NBS. An accounting system will be established in NBS and a Project Operations Manual (POM) will be developed. c. Support for key assessments, such as training needs assessment, ICT needs assessment, review of organizational structure and staffing, review of HR policy and scheme of service, information dissemination policy etc. The assessments will inform the development of detailed plans, strategies and policies for these areas. d. Assessment of NBS’ capacity to conduct surveys and censuses will be carried out by the US Census Bureau using the Tool for Assessment of Survey and Census Capacity (TASC). The assessment will inform the design of interventions in various components of the project and set a baseline score for one of the key performance indicators on capacity development. e. Financial and technical support to the Post-Crisis Survey is also planned for this phase. ii) Effectiveness to mid-term. The first half of project implementation will focus on the following activities: 29 a. Continued support to the NCT and training and development of leadership and management capacity and development of technical skills based on the training needs assessment and training plan. b. Launch of core reforms within the legal and institutional framework for statistics and restructuring of NBS including HR policy, scheme of service, performance based management, etc. c. Launch of the main data generating components of the project. This will include technical and financial support to planned surveys and censuses, strengthening of data compilation frameworks and the development and dissemination of various statistical products and services. Currently, support has been planned for strengthening of national Accounts, 2015 Household Budget Survey, poverty mapping and possibly to the 2015 Population and Housing Census. However, the support to statistical production will be kept flexible to accommodate possible changes to the statistical program. d. Revival of the National Micro-Data Archive in collaboration with the Accelerated Data Program managed by the World Bank’s Development Economics Data Group (DECDG). e. Investments in ICT equipment and systems development and upgrade based on the ICT needs assessment. f. Update of master sampling frame based on 2015 Population and Housing Census. g. Initiation of work to develop a quality assurance framework for official statistics with the use of international best practice in the field. iii) Mid-term to completion. The final stage of the project will focus on: a. Continued support for training and skills development in accordance with the training plan. b. Completion of core reforms. c. Financial and technical assistance to surveys and other data generating activities based on the current statistical program. Currently, the 2017 Integrated Business Survey is planned for the last part of the project. Other potential surveys include an agricultural survey and a health survey. d. Completion and adoption of the quality assurance framework and final assessment of survey and census capacity to track progress over the lifetime of the project. e. Evaluation of the NSDS and development of new NSDS or extension and re- focusing of existing NSDS. 30 26. Sequencing and complementarity of project activities are timed and programmed under broad headlines for each ‘phase’ of the project in order to keep the program simple and flexible. The Bank has fairly limited experience with the actual implementation capacity of NBS, and thus the program has to be able to accommodate the changes that will inevitably occur. Therefore, the work plan of project activities is only indicative and will be reviewed and updated on an annual basis with a view to achieving the agreed results. 31 Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements South Sudan: Statistical Capacity Building Project (P144139) Project Institutional and Implementation Arrangements and Administration Mechanisms 1. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as main implementing agency. The NBS will be the main agency responsible for implementation, coordination and management of the project. NBS has been the lead agency in the development of the NSDS, and NBS will also be in charge of overall management, execution of most activities, reporting and coordination with partners and stakeholders during the implementation period. To facilitate the daily tasks, NBS has appointed an NSDS Coordination Team (NCT) with team leader and members from within its staff and management. The NCT will report directly to the Chairman of NBS and act as a secretariat for NSDS implementation. The NCT consists of an NSDS Coordinator (team leader), an IT specialist, procurement and financial management specialists and an expert on human resources development. Initially it will also be necessary to recruit external assistance to fill gaps in skills and experience and to train and build capacity of NBS’ own staff. 2. The NCT will be responsible for day-to-day planning, coordinating and reporting on project activities. The NCT will play a pivotal role in planning, advising, coordinating, supervising and reporting on implementation. While the Chairman of NBS will be ultimately responsible for the successful implementation of the project, The NCT will be responsible for all day-to-day coordination of NSDS activities including compiling annual work plans and budgets, training plans and procurement plans, and overseeing implementation and reporting to the NBS Chairman. The team will assist the NBS Chairman by compiling summaries of sector statistics working groups’ reports, and preparation of quarterly NSS/NBS progress reports to the Joint NSDS Forum (JNF). The NCT will produce regular financial reports and implementation progress reports for submission to the Chairman and stakeholders. The NCT team leader will participate as secretary to the chairman in meetings of the JNF (see below) and the NSDS Steering Committee (NSC, see below). The NCT will also engage with Sector Statistics Working Groups (SSWGs, see below) and advise these on coordination and alignment of their work and training programs, developing sector plans and budgets and implementation and following up on progress for reporting purposes. 3. Project funds will be handled and accounted for by NBS. NBS will execute the project on behalf of the Government. The fiduciary and reporting arrangements will be a key feature of this project. The flow of funds from the WB to project activities and the reverse flow of financial and progress reports will differ from many other externally financed projects in South Sudan by being the responsibility of the recipient, NBS. This is likely to pose some challenges in the beginning and a focused effort will have to be made to reinforce NBS’ current financial and administrative capacity. This will be done by recruiting financial management and procurement experts, who will train NBS staff and assist in developing detailed manuals and protocols for the fiduciary functions. Furthermore, an accounting system will be established, which can be used for planning and budgeting, recording and tracking expenses and producing regular financial reports. The World Bank will provide intensive implementation support to guide the counterpart, including regular capacity assessments and training. 32 4. High-level NSDS Steering Committee (NSC) to facilitate implementation and coordination among government MDAs. A high-level NSC will be established to facilitate implementation and coordination among government MDAs. The South Sudan Statistics System suffers from poor coordination and communication between data producing units in government. This could potentially lead to the emergence of different standards, concepts and definitions, duplication of efforts and a waste of scarce statistical resources. To address this, it has been agreed that a NSDS Steering Committee will be formed with the overall responsibility of high- level support for and coordination of NSDS activities. Specifically, the NSC will be responsible for: (a) providing support and resolving any constraints that may hamper development and operations of the national statistics system, and which will require intervention from other ministries or arms of Government; (b) providing policy direction on matters relating to project implementation; (c) reviewing and endorsing work programs and progress reports; and (d) promoting inter-agency collaboration, coordination and cooperation with regards to standards, concepts and definitions and statistical activities; and supporting external assessments and evaluations as needed. The NSC will primarily consist of senior managers from participating MDAs. 5. Joint NSDS Forum (JNF). A joint forum will be established for GRSS-DP consultation and dialogue about statistical plans and budgets, performance reports and other issues requiring attention. This forum will also be a useful venue for new development partners to join the sector and for existing partners to reaffirm their commitments to the NSDS. The NSDS Monitoring Forum will be co-chaired by NBS and a central development partner. The JNF will meet quarterly. Initially, it is expected that the following development partners will participate in the JNF: The Government of Norway represented by Statistics Norway, the World Bank, DfID, JICA, UNICEF, UNFPA, UNDP and GIZ. 6. Establishing Sector Statistics Working Groups (SSWGs). The SSWGs will be the ground-level forums for producer-producer coordination and collaboration and technical discussions and for consultations between users and producers at the individual sector or thematic level, e.g. macroeconomic statistics, labor market statistics, business statistics, geographical information systems etc. The SSWGs will address the need to align and coordinate statistical activities within NSS in order to avoid duplication, and increase efficiency and harmonization across data producing entities in government. NBS will provide either the chair of the secretary to each SSWG. Since 2007 NBS has been chairing an interagency group called South Sudan Information Management Working Group (IMWG), which has had as its primary task to develop capacity to produce, analyze and use spatial information and to develop the GIS database at NBS. The new SSWGs will be modeled after the IMWG. The first new SSWG to be established will be the Macroeconomic Sector Working Group, which will draw its membership from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MoFEP), Bank of South Sudan, Department of Customs and Ministry of Petroleum and Mining (MPM). Other important SSWGs to be established will focus on business statistics and social statistics and household conditions. 7. Project institutional chart. The chart below illustrates the institutional arrangements for implementation of the NSDS. NBS takes up center stage in the NSS engaging with four main constituencies: key national ‘shareholders’ through the BoD (which will be appointed after the Statistics Bill has been passed by Parliament); High-level government partners for policy 33 decision and coordination efforts through the NSC; Development partners through the JNF; and users and producers at the technical level through the SSWGs. These institutional arrangements will become operational before effectiveness. ToRs and MoUs will be developed and adopted as necessary. Figure 3.1: NSDS implementation organizational chart NBS Board of Directors National Bureau of Statistics NSDS Steering Committee NBS Chairman Joint NSDS Forum Sector Statistics SectorGroups Statistics NSDS Coordination Working Sector Groups Working Statistics Team Statistics Sector Groups Working Working Groups Financial Management, Disbursements and Procurement Financial Management 8. The World Bank requires the recipient and the grant implementing agency to maintain adequate financial management arrangements to ensure that accurate and timely financial information can be provided regarding project resources and expenditures. A financial management assessment 2 (FMA) is aimed at ensuring that this requirement is met. The FMA of South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that the NBS financial management structure requires strengthening. A qualified Project accountant will be engaged in the NBS to work closely with the NSDS Coordination Team (NCT) and with support from the Technical Assistant in the PFMU. The audit for the project will be carried out by the Audit Chamber with support of an External Audit Agent which will be engaged with funds partly contributed by the project. The project PIM will include a Financial Procedures Manual. The FM risk is Substantial. 2 FMA is conducted in accordance with OPCS guidelines titled “Assessment of Financial Management Arrangements in World Bank-Financed Projects – Guidelines to Staff” issued by the Financial Management Sector Board on October 15, 2003, and the Financial Management Manual for Bank-Financed Investment Operations issued on March 1, 2010. 34 9. Country Issues. A Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Assessment (PEFA) has been carried out for the Government of the Republic of South Sudan and four Sub- National governments – Jonglei, Unity, Western Equatoria and Northern Bahr-el- Ghazar States. The assessment report indicates that the budget is prepared with regard to government policies; there is on-going installation of integrated financial management system; electronic payroll system; improved internal and external audit system. It however noted that downstream PFM areas, such as budget execution, accounting and some internal control systems, are still characterized by significant weaknesses, resulting in budgets that are not credible. It indicated that the PFM law is not in place; aggregate and spending agencies’ expenditure out-turns is significantly different from the approved budgets; constitutional and legal controls on changes in approved budget are not fully adhered to; low in-year predictability of availability of funds; build-up of payment arrears; non transparent public procurement system; non robust internal control system amongst other things. 10. Project Financial Management System (PFMS). Financial management for the proposed Project will be carried out by the NCT which will engage a professionally qualified Financial Management Specialist and will also include assigned government accountants to promote the transfer of skills and knowledge and build financial management capacity within government. The Audit Chamber has the constitutional responsibility for external audit but currently has limited capacity. 11. Accounting Policies and Procedures. The Project Operations Manual (POM), including a Financial Procedures Manual (FPM) will be developed and include the relevant accounting procedures. The project accounting will be on a cash basis and will cover all project funds including IDA and any other contributions. These will be supported with appropriate records and documentation to track commitments and to safeguard assets. Accounting records will be maintained in US$ and SSP. The NCT will ensure that: • All important business and financial processes are adhered to; • Adequate internal controls and procedures are in place; • Interim un-audited Financial Reports (IFRs) are prepared on a timely basis; • The financial statements are prepared on a timely basis and in accordance with International Accounting Standards (IAS) or International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS); • The external audit is completed on time and audit findings and recommendations are implemented expeditiously. 12. The Chart of Accounts. The Chart of Accounts will facilitate the preparation of relevant reports and financial statements, including information on total project expenditures; total expenditure on each project component/activity, and analysis of that total expenditure into various categories of goods, training, consultants and other procurement and disbursement categories. Efforts will be made to ensure that project financial management records will be maintained using a computerized system and necessary training carried out for the accounting staff. All transactions will be properly accounted for and recorded properly. Normal government regulations will continue to be applicable as documented in the Public Financial Management and Accountability Act (PFMAA) of 2011. These regulations require accountability of all funds. 35 In addition, the Project Operations Manual will describe all requirements regarding the different components. For all components, eligibility of expenditures will be based on the actual amount expended evidenced by appropriate supporting documents. 13. Planning and Budgeting. The NCT will prepare the budget, the work plan and cash flow forecast for each component and submit to NBS, MoFEP and the World Bank at least two months before the beginning of the project fiscal year for necessary approvals. The cash budget includes the figures for the year analyzed by quarter and reflect the detailed specifications for project activities, schedules (including procurement plan), and expenditure on project activities scheduled respectively for the quarter. 14. Internal Controls and Internal Auditing. A Project Operations Manual will be prepared and will incorporate Financial Management procedures for the project. These procedures require that the implementing entity/institution certifies the completion and acceptance of goods or services before requesting payment. The Project Financial Management Specialist will also ensure that the contracts are consistent with the invoices and payment request before processing them. They will also monitor and report on the utilization of project funds, including the fiduciary standards complied with and the reliability of the FM system. The Fixed Asset Register relating to the project will be prepared by the project and shall be updated. Physical verification/count of assets is carried out periodically. A Contract Register will also be maintained in respect of all contracts with consultants, contractors and suppliers. The NCT will prepare Contract Status Reports quarterly as part of the IFRs. Control procedures over fixed assets and contracts management will be the responsibility of the NCT. MoFEP’s Internal Audit will review the activities of the project and report on semiannual basis to the NBS, MoFEP and the Bank. 15. Information Systems. All project financial management records will be maintained using an acceptable computerized financial management system. All transactions will be properly accounted for and recorded, and the system will generate the required reports in the acceptable format. 16. Financial Reporting and Monitoring. The Project Accountant will be responsible for the financial reporting of the credit. The NCT will prepare detailed accountability for all advances received and for all activities carried out not more than two weeks after the completion of the activity. Quarterly Interim Un-audited Financial Reports (IFR) will be prepared by the Project Accountant for the purpose of monitoring the implementation of the project and submitted to the NBS, MOFEP, and the World Bank. This includes a Statement showing, period and cumulative inflows by sources and outflows by main expenditure classifications; beginning and ending cash balances of the project; and supporting schedules comparing actual and planned expenditures. The credit Annual Financial Statements will be prepared by the Project Accountant, and will include: • Statement of Sources and Uses of funds (by major Component/ Activity); • Statement of Cash Position for Project Funds from all sources; 36 • Statements reconciling the balances on the various bank accounts (including the Project Account) to the bank balances shown on the Statement of Sources and Uses of funds; • SOE Withdrawal Schedules listing individual withdrawal applications relating to disbursements by the SOE based method, by reference number, date and amount; • Notes to the Financial Statements; • The Annual financial statements will be for the purpose of submission to the auditors to facilitate the conduct of annual audits of the project. 17. External Auditing Arrangements. The Audit Chamber has the constitutional responsibility for carrying out all audits in the Republic of South Sudan. However, due to limited capacity and for the purpose of strengthening the use of country systems, the project audit will be carried out by the Audit Chamber with support from an external audit agent that will be engaged by the Audit Chamber for the project and other World Bank financed projects in South Sudan and partly financed by this project. The audit will be in conformity with the Bank’s audit requirements and in accordance with internationally recognized auditing standards. The auditor will express an independent opinion on the Financial Statements in compliance with International Standards on Auditing (ISA). The external auditors will also prepare a Management Letter giving observations and comments, and providing recommendations for improvements in accounting records, systems, controls and compliance with financial covenants in the Financial Agreement. The audit report will be submitted to the Bank within six months after the end of the accounting period to which the audit relates. 18. Fraud and Corruption. Possibility of circumventing the internal control system with colluding practices as bribes, abuse of administrative positions, mis-procurement etc is a critical issue and may include: (a) late submission of supporting documents; (b) poor filing and records; (c) lack of system integration; (d) lack of budget discipline; (e) unauthorized commitment to suppliers, bypassing budget and expenses vetting procedures; (f) unsecured safekeeping and transportation of funds. These are mitigated as follows: (i) specific aspects on corruption auditing will be included in the external audit TOR; (ii) the internal audit directorate carrying out the internal audit function of the project will report directly to the NBS as well as present quarterly reports to the Bank; (iii) FM Procedures Manual approved before project effectiveness; (iv) strong FM arrangements (including qualified Project Accountant recruited under TORs acceptable to IDA, quarterly IFR including budget execution and monitoring; and (v) measures to improve transparency such as providing information on the project status to the public, and involvement of the NBS in the project are built into the project design. 19. Strength and Weaknesses Strengths. A qualified international Financial Management Specialist will be engaged to work with NBS counterpart staff to manage the project financial system and to build capacity of NBS staff. The project will be audited by the staff of the National Audit Chamber with support from an External Audit Agent. 37 Weaknesses. The FM systems are still undeveloped in South Sudan. Capacity is low to prepare budgets that lay down physical and financial targets in sufficient detail to monitor subsequent performance and properly account and report on funds utilization. However, these are mitigated with the engagement of the international Financial Management Specialist and support to the National Audit Chamber by the External Audit Agent. 20. Funds Flow and Banking Arrangements. The Project Financial Management Specialist, working closely with the NCT in the NBS, will provide the day-to-day management and oversight of funds through the project’s designated bank account denominated in US$ and located in a commercial bank in Juba. The NCT/NBS will open a South Sudanese Pounds Account in a commercial bank in Juba, South Sudan to meet local currency payments. Figure 3.2: Flow of Funds IDA NCT/NBS Designated Account US$ Sub Account in SSP Contractors Goods/Service Providers Documents flow /instruction Funds flow 21. The funds flow process will require that: (a) The NCT/NBS carries out its due diligence on the activities of the project in accordance with the criteria set under the credit and contained in the Financial Agreement; (b) The NCT/NBS determines the amount required for its activities; checks the amount of funds against the planned activities for which transfers are being requested and make 38 recommendations for payment. The documentation to back up the request will include their bank account details, the project document as well as other relevant information; (c) In order to transfer of funds to beneficiaries, the NCT/NBS will request a No Objection (NO) from the World Bank. 22. Bank accounts, transfers and Payments. The proceeds of the Credit will be disbursed in accordance with the traditional disbursement procedures of the Bank and will be used to finance project activities through the disbursement procedures currently used: i.e. Direct Payment, Advances, Reimbursement and Special Commitment. Replenishment and Reimbursement Withdrawal Applications will be accompanied by Statement of Expenditures (SOEs) in accordance with the procedures described in the Disbursement Letter and the Bank's "Disbursement Guidelines". Interim Unaudited Financial Reports and Annual Financial Statements will be used as a financial reporting mechanism and not for disbursement purposes. The minimum application size for direct payment and reimbursement will be the equivalent of 20 percent of the Advance ceiling amount. The Bank will honor eligible expenditures completed, services rendered and delivered by the Project closing date. A four month grace period will be granted to allow for the payment of any eligible expenditure incurred before the Credit Closing Date. Disbursement Arrangements 23. Designated account (DA). NBS will open a segregated Designated Account at a Commercial Bank acceptable to the Bank in US Dollars to cover the Credit's shares of eligible project expenditures. The Ceiling of the Designated Accounts would be 10 percent of the Credit's amount. NBS will be responsible for submitting monthly replenishment applications with appropriate supporting documentation. Authorized signatories, names, and corresponding specimens of their signatures will be submitted to the Bank prior to the receipt of the first Withdrawal Application. 24. Sub Account. The Project will also maintain a bank account in local currency (South Sudanese Pound - SSP). Provided it is within the agreed ceiling, payments from the sub-account can be replenished as disbursements occur and proper supporting documents are filed. The Borrower is responsible for bearing all risks associated with foreign exchange fluctuations when making transfers from the Designated Account which is denominated in US Dollars to the sub- account denominated in SSP. At the end of the project, any unused balances in the sub-account should be deposited to the related Designated Account, including any balance in SSP which should be converted to US Dollars. 25. Statement of expenditures (SOE). During implementation, necessary supporting documents will be sent to the Bank in connection with contracts that are above the prior review threshold, except for expenditures under Contracts with an estimated value of: (a) US$ 500,000 or less for works; (b) US$ 300,000 or less for goods; (c) US$ 100,000 or less for Consulting Firms; (d) US$ 50,000 or less for Individual Consultants, training, and operating costs which will be claimed on the basis of SOEs. The documentation supporting expenditures will be retained at Project Implementation Unit and will be readily accessible for review by the external auditors and periodic World Bank implementation support missions. 39 26. e-Disbursement. The Bank has introduced e-Disbursement for all projects in South Sudan. Under e-Disbursement, all transactions will be conducted and associated supporting documents and SOEs scanned and transmitted online through the World Bank’s Client connection system. The use of e-Disbursement functionality will streamline online payment processing to (i) avoid common mistakes in filling out WAs; (ii) reduce the time and cost of sending WAs to the Bank; and (iii) expedite the Bank processing of disbursement requests. 27. Conclusion and Supervision Plan. FM risk is substantial. FM supervision will be consistent with a risk-based approach and will involve a collaborative approach with the project team. The first on-site FM review will be carried out six months after project implementation has started and will ascertain continued adequacy of arrangements. This will be supplemented by periodic desk reviews of IFRs, monitoring reports and annual audit reports. The FM supervision mission’s objectives will include ensuring that strong financial management systems are maintained for the project throughout project life. In adopting a risk-based approach to FM supervision, the key risk areas of focus will include assessing the accuracy and reasonableness of budgets, their predictability and budget execution, compliance with payment and fund disbursement arrangements. 28. FM Action Plan. The FM Action Plan is as follows: Table 3.1: FM Action Plan Action Responsibility Due Date Engage Qualified Financial Management Specialist NBS 31 July 2014 Assign two accounting staff from NBS to work on the project NBS Done Procure desktops, finalize excel format for IFR reporting and NBS 31 July 2014 train of staff NBS to open bank account, advise Bank of signatories and NBS Prior to disbursement other banking information Prepare POM to include Financial Procedures NBS Prior to effectiveness Support Audit Chamber to engage external audit agent to NBS /Audit Chamber 31 March 2015 carry out project audit Procurement 29. General. In South Sudan, public procurement is governed by the Interim Public Procurement and Disposal Regulations (IPPDR), 2006. The Government is preparing a new Procurement Law which is at Draft Bill stage and expected to be enacted in the coming months. As for the IPPDR, the draft Bill designates the Ministry of Finance as the only procuring entity and all other Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies would have to apply to be designated as procuring entities by the Minister of Finance. All procurement for the project is 40 envisaged to be conducted by NBS. At present NBS is not a designated procuring entity as per the requirements of IPPDR. NBS has assured that it will get designated after fulfilling the requirements in the very near future. 30. World Bank Guidelines. World Bank Guidelines shall apply: Procurement for the proposed project will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s “Guidelines: Procurement of Goods, Works and Non Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011, “Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants by World Bank Borrowers” dated January 2011 and the “Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants”, dated October 15, 2006 and revised in January 2011. National Competitive Bidding (NCB) shall be in accordance with procedures acceptable to the Bank. Also, since South Sudan is on the current list of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS) countries, paragraph 11 of Bank Operational Policy (OP) 10.00 will be triggered to allow the application of the flexibility detailed in the Guidance to World Bank staff: Simplified Procurement Procedures in Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints, April 2013. 31. Procurement and Selection Methods. Procurement of goods and non-consulting services will utilize methods such as International Competitive Bidding (ICB), NCB, Procurement from UN Agencies, Community Participation, Force Account, Shopping and Direct Contracting. Procurement from UN Agencies such as UNOPS will be used for procurement of vehicles. Selection of consultants will follow QCBS, QBS, Selection based on Consultants’ Qualification (CQS), LCS, FBS, Selection of Individual Consultants and SSS. Both procurement of goods and selection of consultants will utilize Bank Standard Bidding Documents/Request for Proposal. 32. Workshops, conference attendance and study tours. Workshops, conference attendance and study tours will be carried out on the basis of approved annual/semi-annual work plans that will identify the general framework of training or similar activities, including the nature of training/study tours/workshops, number of participants, and estimated cost. 33. Operating costs. Operating costs, excluding salaries, bonuses, and fees for government civil servants, will be incurred using procedures acceptable to the Bank. 34. Assessment of agency’s capacity to implement procurement. The Bank team made a procurement assessment of the NBS. At present there are two staff members associated with procurement work in NBS; one purchase officer and one logistics officer. However, they have very little experience of procurement. Thus, the NSDS Coordination Team (NCT) which will be responsible for implementing the project including activities of procurement will have to be strengthened with TA of a hired experienced procurement consultant. Besides the Procurement Specialist, the NCT will include a Project Coordinator, IT specialist, Financial Management Specialist, and HR expert. However, it is being emphasized that counterpart procurement staff need to be available so that further capacity is build up in the ministry in the field of procurement. 41 35. Bank procurement experience in the Republic of South Sudan has shown that: (a) significant delays are experienced in procurement processing, with a significant part of the time spent on preparation of tender specifications, Terms of Reference (ToRs) and evaluation; (b) market for goods is nascent, cost of goods and services is high; and (c) there is a six month window of opportunity during the dry season within which most of the country is accessible. These experiences are being factored into the design of procurement arrangements. 36. The overall procurement risk for the project is considered High. In order to mitigate the risks identified in the fiduciary assessment, an action plan has been prepared in consultation with NBS and is provided below: Table 3.2: Procurement Risk Mitigation Action Plan Risk Risk mitigation measures Responsibility Proposed Completion Date 1 The capacity at NBS to NCT will include one NBS Effectiveness execute procurement of experienced contracted the project is limited Procurement Specialist. 2 Possible lack of The Project Operations NBS Effectiveness knowledge to Manual (POM) will include stakeholders involved in the procurement section procurement and related clearly describing activities about various procurement arrangement, aspects of procurement role and responsibility, of the project. procurement methods etc. 3 The IPPDR does not The NBS will have to obtain NBS identify NBS as the Procuring Entity status procuring entity. Except after complying with MoFEP all other requirements at the earliest agencies have to apply to possible. MoFEP for designation as procuring entity. 4 Lack of continuous NBS shall ensure NBS Starting with availability of designated continuous availability of effectiveness of procurement counterpart qualified counterpart staff in PPA, continued staff at NCT shall hinder NCT to work alongside the throughout the transfer of knowledge contracted procurement project specialist. implementation 37. Simplified Procurement Plan. The Borrower has developed a draft simplified procurement plan indicating procurements to be carried out over the entire project period. The procurement plan consists of the procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for pre-qualification, estimated costs, prior review requirements. The procurement plan will be updated at least annually, or more frequently as required, to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. 42 38. Threshold for each method of Procurement/Selection and for Prior Review. The recommended methods of procurement/selection and the prior review thresholds for the project would be as given below. The Bank’s prior review requirements are stated in Appendix 1 to the Guidelines for Procurement and Appendix 1 to Guidelines for Selection and Employment of the Consultants. All Terms of Reference (ToRs) regardless of contract amount shall be subject to the Bank’s Prior review. A. Procurement of Goods and Non-Consulting Services Table 3.3: Procurement Methods and Thresholds for Goods and Non-Consulting Services Procurement Method Threshold (US$) Comment 1. ICB (Goods and non-consulting 500,000 Equivalent or more services) 2. NCB (Goods and non-consulting 500,000 Less than services) 3. Shopping (Goods and non-consulting 100,000 Equivalent or less services) 4 Direct contracting Any value 5 Procurement from UN agencies Any value (UNOPS) Table 3.4: Prior Review Thresholds for Goods and Non-Consulting Services Procurement Method Prior Review Comments Threshold (US$) 1. ICB (Goods, and Non- All Contracts Consultant Services) 2. NCB (Goods and Non- 500,000 Equivalent or more and the first contract in consulting services) each category (i.e. one each for Goods and Non-consulting services) will be subject to Prior Review 3 Direct Contracting All contracts (Goods and Non- Consultant Services) 4 UN Agencies All contracts 5 Shopping (Goods and None All shopping shall be subject to post review. Non-Consulting However, the first contract in each category Services) (i.e. one each for Goods and Non-consulting Services) will be subject to prior review. 43 B. Selection of Consultants Table 3.5: Selection Methods and Thresholds for Consultants Selection Method Threshold Comments (US$) 1. QCBS, QBS, Any value Selection Method will depend on nature and complexity FBS, LCS of assignment. 2. CQS 300,000 Normally Equivalent or less. However, in special appropriate cases CQS for value above US$ 300,000 may be agreed by the Bank and reflected in the Procurement Plan 3 Individual Any value consultant 4 SSS Any value (firm/individual) 39. Short list comprising entirely of national consultants. Short lists of consultants for Engineering and Contract Supervision assignment estimated to cost equal or less than US$ 200,000 equivalent and for all other consultancy assignments estimated to cost equal or less than US$100,000 equivalent per contract, may comprise entirely of national consultants in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 2.7 of the Consultant Guidelines Table 3.6: Prior Review Threshold for Consultants Selection Method Prior Review Threshold (US$) Comments 1. Competitive Methods (Firms) 200,000 Equivalent or more 2. Individual consultant selection 100,000 Equivalent or more 3 Single Source (Firms)/Individuals All contracts Equivalent or more 40. Frequency of procurement supervision. In addition to the prior review supervision to be carried out by the Bank, the Bank shall conduct an annual post review of a sample of 20 percent of all post review contracts finalized under the project. 41. Simplified Procurement Plan. The simplified Procurement plan as prepared by the Client and cleared by the Bank is as below: 44 Table 3.7: Procurement Plan - NSDS Project - (Project ID - P144139) - Dated: May 14, 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ref. Contract Categories Estimated Cost – US$ Activity Procurement/ Review Expected Expected No. Description Total Amount in Ref. No. Selection by Bank Bid/Proposal Contract Estimated the PPA Method (Prior or Submission Completion Cost Post) Deadline Date 1 Legal Reforms and Institutional Development 1.1 Statistical bill drafting Consultancy 5,000 0 A1 IC Post July 2014 Dec 2014 National Consultant Services 1.2 Individual Consultant to Consultancy 20,000 0 A1 IC Prior July2014 Dec 2014 review the existing draft Services statistics Act and to prepare statistics regulations. 1.3 Individual Consultant for Consultancy 16,000 0 A8 IC Post March 2015 July 2015 Establishment of Services information Dissemination policy 1.4 Consultancy firm for: Consultancy 70,000 70,000 A2 CQS Post February June 2014 Revise NBS organogram, Services 2014 Develop change management programme to improve staff incentives, Reform pay structure, Develop Human Resource Development Strategy, Develop incentive performance management scheme, develop Annual staff evaluation reporting system 1.5 Individual Consultant to Consultancy 10,000 10,000 A5 IC/SSS Post/Prior Jan 2014 Feb 2014 implement financial Services software Sub-Total 121,000 80,000 2 Human Resource Development and Training 2.1 Individual Consultancy for Consultancy 25,000 25,000 B1 IC Post Jan 2014 Jan 2014 Training needs assessment Services 45 2.2 TA for short term training in Consultancy 40,000 0 B2 IC Post July 2014 Jun 2016 leadership and management, Services ICT, statistics, report writing and presentation skills etc. 2.3 Consultant for Development Consultancy 15,000 0 B3 IC Post April 2015 Aug 2015 of statistics curricular for Services Public Universities Sub-Total 80,000 25,000 3 ICT and Statistical Infrastructure Development 3.1 Consultancy for ICT needs Consultancy 50,000 0 C3 IC Post July2014 Sept 2014 assessment and ICT Services Strategy 3.2 Consultancy: Restructuring Consultancy 15,000 0 C1 IC Post July 2014 Dec 2014 Website Services 3.3 ICT equipment procurement Goods 500,000 0 C4 TBD TBD TBD TBD 3.4 ICT support/TA Consultancy 20,000 0 C5 TBD TBD TBD TBD Services 3.5 GIS development (software Consultancy 226,000 0 C6 TBD TBD TBD TBD licenses, database Services/Goods development, web-portal development, dissemination events) 3.6 Consultant for Update of Consultancy 20,000 0 C7 IC Post Aug 2015 Dec 2015 master sampling frame Services based on Pop. and Housing Census 3.7 Consultancy for Consultancy 30,000 0 C8 CQS Post Aug 2015 March 2016 Development of Quality Services Assessment Framework including developing a compendium of standards, classification and definitions 3.8 Consultancy NBS Building Consultancy 237,000 237,000 C9 CQS Prior Jan 2014 March 2014 design and supervision Services Sub-Total 1,098,000 237,000 46 4 Data Development and Dissemination 4.1 Printing of Poverty Maps Goods 60,000 0 D1 Shopping Post July 2014 Sept 2014 4.2 Individual Consultant for Consultancy 35,000 0 D2 IC Post July 2014 Dec2014 National Account Services Sub-Total 95,000 0 5 Project Management 5.1 Refrigerator (1) Goods 3,500 0 E2 Shopping Post Mar 2014 Mar 2014 5.2 Consultancy: Procurement Consultancy 300,000 150,000 E1 IC Prior Jan 2014 Dec 2015 Specialist (1) for 24 months Services 5.3 Consultancy: Financial Consultancy 286,000 150,000 E1 IC Prior Jan 2014 Dec 2015 Specialist (1) for 24 months Services 5.4 Consultancy: IT Specialist Consultancy 36,000 0 E1 IC Prior July 2014 July 2015 (1) for 12 months Services 5.5 Consultancy: Human Consultancy 36,000 36,000 E1 IC Prior Jan 2014 Dec 2014 Resource Specialist (1) for Services 12 months 5.6 Consultancy: Monitoring Consultancy 30,000 0 E1 IC Prior Nov 2014 Aug 2015 and Evaluation Specialist Services (1) for 10 months 5.7 Consultancy for Project Consultancy 9,000 3,000 E4 TBD TBD TBD TBD Audit Services 5.8 Vehicle (2 No.) Goods 120,000 120,000 E2 Procurement Prior Jan 2014 July 2014 through UNOPS 5.9 Office furniture: Desks (6) Goods 4,200 4,200 E2 Shopping Post Jan 2014 Feb 2014 & Chairs (12) 5.10 Office Equipment: Laptop Goods 13,700 13,700 E2 Shopping Post Jan 2014 Feb 2014 computers (3), Desktops Computers (3), printers (3), fax machine (1), scanner (1) & Projector (1) 5.11 Photocopier Machine (1) Goods 10,000 10,000 E2 Shopping Post Jan 2014 Feb2014 5.12 Printings of Project Manuals Goods 17,000 17,000 E3 Shopping Post Jan 2014 March 2015 & strategy document (NSDS) 5.13 Project Management Consultancy 100,000 40,000 E1 IC Prior Feb-2014 Dec 2015 Specialist services 47 5.14 FM support to PFMU Consultancy of 50,000 0 E2 TBD TBD TBD TBD services Sub-Total 1,015,400 543,900 TOTAL COST (USD) 2,409,400 885,900 Notes: 1. The first procurement of Shopping and NCB for each category (i.e one each for Goods and Non-consulting services) shall be subject to the prior review. 2. (a) Where there is selection of individual consultant with an intention of having services for more than 12 months, the consultants shall be recruited for a period of 12 months initially with possible extensions based on performance. (b): The selection of IC for the estimated value for the entire estimated duration (the period covered by the PPA as well as to be covered by the main project fund) of USD 100,000 or above shall be subject to prior review. Subsequent extensions after completion of 12 months of successful service with the same existing terms and conditions shall be subject to Post Review. 3. This Procurement Plan covers the duration of the project, but with an emphasis on the first 24 months. It will be updated from time to time. 48 Environmental and Social Safeguard 42. Environmental safeguard. No environmental safeguards policies are trigged. 43. Social safeguard: nurturing the data eco-system. No social safeguards policies are triggered by this project. NBS and other statistics producers do not exist in a vacuum. Their existence is conditional on the state of the rest of the data eco-system, the National Statistical System. The national statistical system also consists of trained professionals from institutes of higher learning, users within and outside of government, national and international financiers and a host of official data producers from across government. The success of the statistical service depends on the take-up by both government and non-government stakeholders. Without demand for data and use of statistics, the efforts of the statistical service are superfluous. Use of data in decision-making in South Sudan is still in its infancy, but it is expanding and becoming more widespread as more and better data becomes available. The project will aim to work with key facilitators to increase the demand and use of data. These include academics. Close collaboration with public universities in South Sudan has been planned both in terms of attaching graduate students to NBS, but also to support university researchers in accessing and analyzing socio- economic data. The project will also include key people from MoFEP and other line ministries, who are responsible for monitoring and evaluating the SSDP and sectoral plans. The field work will involve relevant government agencies and local authorities. Should there be a need to obtain data from individual households, the project will include consultations with communities to ensure they are informed about the purposes of the data-gathering. Monitoring & Evaluation 44. The NBS NCT will be responsible for monitoring progress against agreed outcome indicators and reporting to partners and other stakeholders. Initially progress will primarily be monitored against the procurement plan. As the project implementation progresses, monitoring of outcome indicators will be central. The NBS NCT will be required to compile a report on progress against agreed outcome indicators at least once a year. It will be necessary for NBS to engage an M&E consultant initially for a one year period. 45. Benchmark information on indicators will be established prior to project effectiveness. One key tool to assess the baseline situation and to monitor progress is the Tool for Assessing Statistical Capacity (TASC) developed by The US Census Bureau. Data for other indicators is either freely available or could be compiled through analysis of data already available in NBS’ systems and files. All baseline and target values of outcome indicators will be compiled prior to credit effectiveness. 46. Managing for results and reporting achievements is not a new concept to NBS. NBS is already producing annual reports, which are distributed to stakeholders as well as made available on NBS’ website. However, results reporting will be taken one step further during the implementation of the NSDS 2014-19. More emphasis will be put on outputs and results vis a vis agreed targets. Sources of information to verify that results have been achieved will be more diverse and include third party assessments and direct feedback from users of statistics. This will require additional resources. Additional staff-time will be needed by NBS to gather information and report on progress to stakeholders. 49 Role of Partners 47. Close coordination with partners. Project designed as a stand-alone operation, but close coordination with partners will be maintained. The World Bank acknowledges that several other development partners are active in the statistics sector in South Sudan. The most notable among these is Statistics Norway (SN), which has a long-standing cooperation agreement with NBS, which in 2013 entered its third phase covering five years. WB and SN have coordinated their programs to focus on separate areas of the NSDS. However, a few areas overlap where further coordination is needed. These include business statistics and ICT development. It has been agreed that SN will support the upgrade of the statistical business register, which is an important prerequisite for the integrated business survey, which will be financed by the WB IDA-credit. Secondly, SN and WB consult closely with regards to the development of an ICT strategy for NBS and the NSS and investments in ICT equipment for the statistical service. 50 Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) South Sudan: Statistical Capacity Building Project (P144139) . . Project Stakeholder Risks Stakeholder Risk Rating Moderate Risk Description: Risk Management: NBS, MDAs and DPs have agreed to establish a Joint NSDS Forum, which will be The main stakeholders in the statistics sector are the users, strengthened during the project. producers and financiers of statistics; and the providers of information, primarily households, businesses and Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: government agencies. Stakeholder needs and potential Client Both 15-Nov-2014 CONTINUO contributions have to be managed to facilitate US implementation of the strategy. Coordination and engagement between NBS and its many stakeholders will Risk Management: be strengthened through core project activities. A few An information and dissemination strategy for users of statistics on NSDS products will concrete actions have been designed to reduce stakeholder be developed. risk. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation 31-Dec-2014 Implementing Agency (IA) Risks (including Fiduciary Risks) Capacity Rating High Risk Description: Risk Management: An NSDS Coordination Team will be established and kept in place throughout the Successful implementation of the project will require lifetime of the project, which will be responsible for day-to-day coordination and substantial commitment and capacity in terms of planning, implementation of the program. coordination, budgeting, procurement, financial management, reporting and overall project management. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Both CONTINUO US Risk Management: 51 Training will be provided to members of the project coordination team as needed. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client In Progress Both CONTINUO US Risk Management: Short-term consultants will be assigned to the NSDS Coordination Team to fill gaps in implementation capacity. Consultancies are planned in the following areas: financial management, procurement and project management. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client In Progress Preparation 30-Jun-2014 Risk Management: A Project Operations manual will be developed and adopted and staff on the NSDS Coordination Team will be trained in the use of it. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client In Progress Implementation 15-Nov-2014 Governance Rating Substantial Risk Description: Risk Management: Project responds to government-owned and driven strategy. There is potential for governance risk if the project is not given adequate attention and importance by NBS senior Head of project coordination team reports to chairman of NBS. management. It is important that the project responds to a government-owned and driven strategy and that the head Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: of NBS is in charge of project implementation. Client Implementation CONTINUO US Risk Management: Annual audits will be the responsibility of the Auditor General. These shall be conducted within an agreed annual audit report framework of the Auditor General and conducted in accordance with internationally recognized auditing standards. 52 Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation Yearly Risk Management: Strong internal control mechanisms will be included in project design, and supported during implementation. These mechanisms will be spelled out in respective program manuals. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation CONTINUO US Risk Management: Bank procurement reviews (post versus prior) as set out in the Procurement Plan and updated from time to time will be designed to fit the circumstances and risk environment. Similarly for financial controls, IFRs, disbursement, withdrawal and reporting arrangements will be designed to minimize F&C risk. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Bank In Progress Implementation CONTINUO US Risk Management: All activities will have to be contained in the Annual Work Plan and approved prior to the beginning of each FY. In addition, most activities, as discussed and agreed between the Bank and the Client, will need an approved concept note and budget prior to beginning. All trainings will have to be listed in the approved training plan and based on a training needs assessment to be conducted during preparation. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both In Progress Implementation CONTINUO US Project Risks Design Rating High Risk Description: Risk Management: 53 A training needs assessment will be conducted to identify skill gaps. The coordination across institutions is currently too weak Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: and will need to be strengthened. There is a risk to the implementation of NSDS program due to the fact that Client Not Yet Due Implementation some MDAs lack human capacity to implement priority activities identified in NSDS. Risk Management: Adequate provisions will be made to train and mentor staff and managers of the statistical system and build capacity through the implementation of the project. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation CONTINUO US Social and Environmental Rating Low Risk Description: Risk Management: There are no potential social and environmental safeguard considerations triggered by this project. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Program and Donor Rating Moderate Risk Description: Risk Management: Common work plans, budget and reports will be used by all stakeholders and a An uncoordinated and incoherent approach by DPs could consensus on appropriate common performance indicators and targets will be sought have a negative impact on the project performance and among stakeholders. outcomes. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both Not Yet Due Implementation CONTINUO US Risk Management: Development Partners will seek to conduct joint supervision missions. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both Not Yet Due Implementation CONTINUO US 54 Risk Management: The Joint NSDS Forum will meet quarterly throughout project implementation. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both In Progress Implementation Quarterly Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Rating High Risk Description: Risk Management: M&E functions will be established and strengthened as part of the NSDS Coordination The client has little experience in strategic planning and Team performance monitoring. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation 31-Dec-2014 Risk Management: Annual Reports will be submitted to stakeholders. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation Yearly Risk Management: Interim Financial Reports will be compiled using agreed standard tables and forms and circulated to stakeholders. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation Quarterly Risk Management: A second generation NSDS will be developed and adopted before the end of the project. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Client Not Yet Due Implementation 30-Jun-2019 55 Overall Risk Overall Implementation Risk: Rating High Risk Description: The overall risk rating is High. Substantial risks are present, especially due to implementing agency capacity constraints. A risk mitigation plan has been designed which includes the following elements: i) targeted technical assistance to weak functions and areas, and training of key staff working in these functions; ii) development of detailed manuals, policies and operating procedures for weak areas; iii) strong implementation support from the World Bank to overall project implementation and to key components and activities; iv) strong senior management leadership from the National Bureau of Statistics; and v) efforts to build a coalition of senior government officials to support and facilitate implementation of the NSDS. 56 Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan South Sudan: Statistical Capacity Building Project (P144139) Strategy and approach for Implementation Support 1. The strategy for implementation support has been developed based on the nature of the project and its risk profile. It will aim at making implementation support to the client more flexible and efficient, and will focus on implementation of the risk mitigation measures defined in the ORAF. • Overall project implementation support. Due to the fragile state environment, weak capacity and the client’s lack of experience with World Bank policies and procedures, intensive Bank support and supervision is required. The Bank Task Team Leader will likely have to conduct at least four support missions every year in addition to local support from procurement and FM staff on a continuous basis. Further local implementation support on a day to day basis will be an advantage. The Bank will likely also have to allocate support for and supervision of key reforms and major activities such as the Post-Crisis Survey and the Household Budget Survey. • Procurement. Implementation support will include: a) providing training to members of the NCT and related staff in NBS; b) reviewing procurement documents and providing timely feedback to the NCT team leader; c) providing detailed guidance on the Bank’s Procurement Guidelines to the NCT; and d) monitoring procurement process against the detailed Procurement Plan. • Financial Management. Supervision will include reviewing the projects’ financial management system, including but not limited to, accounting, reporting and internal controls. Short-term assistance in matters related to accounting, reporting and controlling will be provided by the project. • Core reforms and main activities. The Bank team will closely supervise the implementation of the planned core reforms (legal, institutional, organizational and HR and main surveys) and provide guidance and support to the client on any relevant issues. Implementation Support Plan Table 5.1: Implementation Support Plan Time Focus Skills Needed Resource Partner Role Estimate First twelve Project management Knowledge of Bank 60 WDs Partners will months & Team Leadership OP/BP, experience in 4 missions, participate in supervising lending DC-based quarterly JNF operations meetings and take part in Operational support Drafting ToRs, Concept 60 WDs, discussions of notes, plans and budgets, locally plans and budgets reporting, general project based and review of management skills performance 57 Component A and B Legal and Institutional 20 WDs, 2 and activities related Reform, statistical missions to quality assurance organization, quality assurance frameworks Procurement Bank BP/OP on 20 WDs, Procurement locally based Financial Bank BP/OP on FM 20 WDs, Management locally based Survey support Sampling, questionnaire 20 WDs design, survey budgeting, supervision and analysis 12-48 months Project management Knowledge of Bank 240 WDs Partners will & Team Leadership OP/BP, experience in 16 missions, participate in supervising lending DC-based quarterly JNF operations meetings and take part in Operational support Drafting ToRs, Concept 240 WDs, discussions of notes, plans and budgets, locally plans and budgets reporting, general project based and review of management skills performance. Partners could Component A and B Legal and Institutional 20 WDs, 2 also potentially and activities related Reform, statistical missions provide to quality assurance organization, quality implementation assurance frameworks support to individual Survey support and Sampling, questionnaire 100 WDs activities. This support for poverty design, survey budgeting, will be mapping and other supervision and analysis determined on a analytical work case by case basis. ICT related-activities IT 20 WDs Procurement Bank BP/OP on 80 WDs, Procurement Juba-based Financial Bank BP/OP on FM 80 WDs, Management Juba-based 58 Table 5.2: Skills Mix Required Skills Needed Number of Staff Weeks Number of Trips Comments Task Team Leader 60 WDs annually 4 trips annually DC-based Operational Support 60 WDs annually Country office based Core reform advisor 20 WDs annually 4 trips annually Financial 20 WDs annually - Country office based Management Specialist Procurement 20 WDs annually - Country office based Specialist Survey Specialist 20-40 WDs annually - DC-based Table 5.3: Partners Institution/Country Role Statistics Norway Will provide Resident Statistics Advisor based in NBS. Main task will be to support and supervise Statistics Norway’s support to NBS. DFID Will have a Resident Statistics and M&E Advisor based in Juba. DfID will support specific areas of the NSDS including a High- Frequency Household Survey. IMF Will provide advice on macroeconomic statistics. UNICEF Will support various activities in the NSDS with an emphasis on health and education statistics and database development and dissemination. UNFPA Will provide a resident Census Technical Advisor. UNFPA will support various activities in the NSDS with an emphasis on demographic statistics and Census. 59