The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Chad Statistical Development (P159434) Chad Statistical Development (P159434) AFRICA | Chad | Poverty and Equity Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2017 | Seq No: 6 | ARCHIVED on 13-Jan-2020 | ISR39750 | Implementing Agencies: INSEED, Republic of Chad Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 03-Apr-2017 Effectiveness Date: 25-Aug-2017 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 12-Dec-2019 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 06-Dec-2019 Original Closing Date: 31-Mar-2022 Revised Closing Date: 31-Mar-2022 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) To strengthen the capacity of the national statistics institute to collect, process, and disseminate data with improved quality, frequency, and timeliness. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Strengthening Institutional Capacity and Developing Human Resources:(Cost $4.10 M) Data Collection, Processing, Analysis, and Dissemination:(Cost $6.70 M) Project Management and Improving of IT infrastructure:(Cost $1.20 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Project implementation status under each component. Component 1: Strengthening Institutional Capacity and Developing Human Resources 1 . Institutional reform: The Economic and Planning Commission of the National Assembly approved the draft “Statistics Law” on May 27th, 2019 with recommendation to incorporate the comments provided by the World Bank regarding Article 18 and 51. The law incorporates the changes that has been promulgated by the President on June 11th, 2019. The decrees implementing the terms of reference, structure, and operation of INSEED, the National Statistical Council (CSN), and the National Statistical Development Fund (FNDS) were also signed and published on July 12, 2019. The objectives of this reform are to: (i) build an institutional and functional legislative framework that ensures the ongoing production of high-quality statistics; (ii) ensure INSEED's administrative autonomy and financial independence; (iii) strengthen the institutional capacities of the National 1/13/2020 Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Chad Statistical Development (P159434) Statistical System (SSN); and (iv) make INSEED one of the most effective institutes of its type in Africa. The recruitment of the staffs of the National Statistical Development Fund (FNDS) has been started. This Fund aims to insure an administrative and financial autonomy to INSEED in funding statistical activities. The creation of the National School for Statistics and Applied Informatics (ENSIA) will be enshrined in specific legislation and in an implementing decree. It should be noted that the Sub-regional School for Statistics and Applied Economics (ISSEA) carried out a feasibility study of the establishment of the School. The reforms came into effect once the legislative components were signed. A strategic assessment of INSEED's structure and personnel has been submitted to INSEED for comments and approval by a firm (Agora consulting) hired by the project for this purpose. This Assessment includes (i) a draft INSEED procedural bylaws; (ii) a draft proposal for personnel status, (iii) a draft organizational chart; and (iv) a draft plan for INSEED in-house management development. 2. Human resources development: In the 2017-2018 academic year, sixteen scholarship have been allocated, including one woman in her last year of study. She graduated and has been hired by the project as staff in INSEED. During the same academic year, 99 candidates (10 of them women) who applied to the application for statistical studies in African statistical school were shortlisted. 9 of the candidates were admitted and received scholarship from the project to study in African statistical schools during 2018-2019 academic. Two of the students graduated this year and were hired by INSEED. During the same academic year, more than 500 applications had been received, and 122 candidates (8 of them women) were shortlisted. Twelve of the candidates, including one woman passed the entrance examinations and received scholarship for the 2019/2020 academic year. Since the beginning of the project, a total of 35 scholarships have been allocated while the objective of the project was to provide 30 scholarships. In addition, three of those who received scholarship, including one woman, are currently working as staffs in INSEED. A total of 221 students (18 of them women) benefitted from examination preparation training courses with the support of the project. 3. Professional Development for INSEED Staff: A staff training plan focusing on skills development and career management has been elaborated and waiting for approval by INSEED. At this stage, a total of seven staff of INSEED have received training in various topics, including (i) performance indicators and establishment of monitoring-assessment systems; (ii) placing and execution of contracts for services, supplies, and work; (iii) results management; and (iv) World Bank procedures for accounting & financial management. Thirteen and more staffs need to be trained to reach the project target of 20. 4. Recruitment of Skilled Staff for INSEED: The project continues in supporting the statistical system in reinforcing the human resource activities. A total of Twelve statisticians have been hired, but three of them resigned for salary reason. Six and more staffs need to be hired to reach the target of 15. Component 2: Data Collection, Processing, Analysis, and Dissemination 1 . Implementation of National survey ECOSIT4: The two waves of data collection were completed in April 2019 and the cleaning work is completed with some additional checking and sensitivity test to be completed on the consumption aggregates. The data collection was based on CAPI integrating a Head quarter team in charge of data checking while the data collection was ongoing. This increase the quality of the data and reduce the duration of the data cleaning process. INSEED participated in the two technical workshops organized by the WAEMU in July (Cotonou) and September 2019 (Ouagadougou). Some preliminary results are available but will be confirmed during the next workshop planned in Ouagadougou in January 2020. INSEED has already begun the analysis of the survey report. This report will be available by the end of February 2020 and its dissemination will be effective from this period according to the INSEED calendar. The poverty topic of the analysis will be done jointly with the World Bank team after the upcoming workshop in Ouagadougou. INSEED has been supporting during the data collection process by a resident advisor. The institute also benefited from technical assistance from the WAEMU project, international consultant from the World Bank and the African Development Bank and the Task Team Leaders of the World Bank (TTLs) of the project. Three staff have benefited from CAPI training and are able to design a survey using this technology. These staff trained other team members and at least 6 members of the survey team are now able to design a CAPI-based survey. This will be helpful in implementing the Ecosit 5 planned in 2020-2021. The institute is currently working to finalize a portal to release the micro-data of the survey. A team from INSEED is currently in Senegal to draw inspiration from the experience of Senegal in term of portal management. The entire data of the survey is planned to be released for the public use before February 2020. This will allow the Institute to satisfy the financing agreement and start the preparation of the Ecosit 5 planned by June 2020. 2 . Macroeconomic Data: To update GDP numbers, INSEED signed, in October 2018, an agreement with AFRISTAT for the production and updating of national accounts. Surveys have been conducted to collect additional data, including (i) a fisheries survey, and (ii) a survey of municipal budgets. The report on the fishing survey is in the process of being completed. INSEED is currently working to change the baseline year (from 2005 to 2017) and to migrate to the 2008 National Accounts System (SNA-2008). The data collection of the 2018 national accounts is ongoing and the Construction Cost Index (CCI) is about to be completed with the launch of baseline-year data collection. A CAPI-based survey to collect prices in three cities (Amtiman, Bol, and Mongo) with the aim to integrate new geographic regions in the calculation of the national consumer price index is ongoing. However, this activity is delayed compared to the initial planning because of a problem transmitting data via the Internet from handsets to a central database. The calculation of the national consumer price index (CPI) is being carried out in collaboration with AGRISTAT and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). This is an opportunity of capacity building for INSEED. Component 3: Project Management and Improving of IT infrastructure 1. Project Management: The project team is completed and consists of a financial management expert, a procurement expert, an accountant, and a monitoring and evaluation expert. The project account has been audited for 2017 while the 2018 audit is delayed because of a procurement issue to hire external auditor. INSEED is working to address the issue and also to hire a firm for the 2019 audit. The main constraints that experienced the project in term of procurement relies to the fact that (i) contracts exceeding a ceiling of CFAF 10 million have to be approved by the presidency and (ii) consulting contracts do not specify time periods with precise dates, the actual duration of work, or the duration of the reviews of the reports produced. 2. Improvements to IT infrastructure for data dissemination: The contract of the firm in charge of providing service and reinstall the local network was terminated because of low quality of services. An audit of the INSEED’s IT system has been done with the key recommendations of (i) reorganization of the INSEED team; (ii) acquisition of software, hardware, and other equipment; (iii) increase in bandwidth; and (iv) an integrated management mechanism. A new operator has been hired to provide IT service to the institute. However, there is a need to strengthen the capacities of the INSEED IT ‘team members in managing the website. These capacities building include (i) design of a web-based data portal, (ii) development of an application for offline access to data, (iii) training in data archiving, and (iv) training in anonymization of microdata. A team of the IT ‘team is currently on mission in Senegal to draw inspiration from the experience of Senegal in term of portal management. 1/13/2020 Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Chad Statistical Development (P159434) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic Substantial Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial Substantial Substantial Fiduciary High Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Low Moderate Low Stakeholders Moderate Moderate Moderate Other Low Low Low Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Project Development Objective Indicators IN00779100 ►NSDS is drafted and adopted (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 NSDS is drafted but not adopted. Comments: IN00779101 ►Number of scholarships awarded for advanced degrees in statistics (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 23.00 35.00 30.00 1/13/2020 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Chad Statistical Development (P159434) Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 IN00779102 ►Number of household surveys completed (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 IN00779103 ►The number of household surveys implemented with improved data collection methods and computerized data checking to improve data quality. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 IN00779104 ►Dissemination of statistical abstracts, key findings and updated poverty statistics to take place within 12 months of data cleaning for each round of the HHS. (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 IN00779105 ►The number of datasets from household surveys implemented under the project that are publicly released within 12 months of data cleaning (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Strengthening Institutional Capacity and Developing Human Resources IN00779106 ►Regulatory reform is drafted and ready for adoption (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No Yes Yes Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 IN00779109 ►Number of INSEED staff trained (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 12.00 12.00 50.00 1/13/2020 Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Chad Statistical Development (P159434) Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 IN00779111 ►Number of students to complete the statistics entrance exam preparation program (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 211.00 221.00 250.00 Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Data Collection, Processing, Analysis, and Dissemination IN00779107 ►Rebasing of CPI measure using expanded geographic coverage of price data collection (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 IN00779110 ►Web based data portal available to the public (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Project Management and Improving of IT infrastructure IN00779108 ►Annual production of a data user feedback report for project steering committee. (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 30-Sep-2016 15-Jun-2019 06-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P159434 IDA-D1760 Effective USD 12.00 12.00 0.00 5.91 6.40 48% Key Dates (by loan) 1/13/2020 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Chad Statistical Development (P159434) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P159434 IDA-D1760 Effective 03-Apr-2017 21-Apr-2017 25-Aug-2017 31-Mar-2022 31-Mar-2022 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 1/13/2020 Page 6 of 6