40772 East Asia ENVIR NMENT MONITOR 2007 A D A P T I N G T O orit Climate Change /mong .or orldbank w. w w w//: ptth Environmental Monitor Series The Environmental Monitor Series is published annually in seven EAP countries. It has emerged as a key tool for i) diagnosis of environmental indicators, trends and policy issues; ii) awareness raising among policymakers, academics, researchers, and the general public; and iii) partnerships among the public sector, civil society and development partners. East Asia ENVIR NMENT MONITOR 2007 A D A P T I N G T O Climate Change The views expressed in this report are entirely those of the authors and should not be cited without permission. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. 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CONTENTS Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vi Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ix 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 What is Climate Change? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Expected Changes in the Global Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Cascading Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 2 The EAP Development Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Rapid Growth, Poverty Reduction and Environmental Degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Why is EAP Vulnerable to Climate Change? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 3 How Will EAP's Climate Change? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Climate Change and Climate Diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Expected Changes in the Region's Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 4 Expected Impacts of Climate Change in EAP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Environmental Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Economic Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Social Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 Cumulative Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 5 What EAP Can Do to Adapt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Approaches to Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Cross-Cutting Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 Area-Specific and Ecosystem-Level Interventions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 6 Financing Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 The Global Adaptation Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 Funding Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 ANNEX A EAP Key Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 B World Bank Publications on Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47 Useful Links . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 iii iv EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Tables 6.1 Challenges to Adaptation in the Asia-Pacific Region and Suggested Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 6.2 Adaptation Funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 Figures 1.1 World Energy Related CO2 Emissions, 2000­2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 1.2 EAP's Share of Global GHG Emissions, 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 1.3 GHG Emissions by Source, 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 1.4 Global Temperature Changes in the Last Millennium and Estimated Rise, 2000­2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 1.5 Estimated Global Average Sea Level Rise, 2000­2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 1.6 Percentage Change in Precipitation Runoff by 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 1.7 The Climate Has Been Changing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 1.8 The Intensity of Extreme Climate Events Is Going Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 1.9 Stabilization Levels and Probability Ranges for Temperature Increases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 2.1 Population at Risk in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 2.2 Land Use in the Greater Pearl River Delta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 3.1 Koeppen-Geiger Climate Classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 3.2 Annual Mean Temperature Change Expected in the 21st Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 3.3 Precipitation Changes Expected by 2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 3.4 Area at Risk from a 0.5m Sea-Level Rise in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 3.5 Global Impacts of Sea Level Rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 3.6 Inundation Scenarios for Vietnam for 1 and 3 Meters SLR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 4.1 Projected Impacts of a 1m Sea-Level Rise Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Boxes 1.1 The Greenhouse Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 3.1 How El Niño Affects the Southern Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 4.1 Economic Importance of Coral Reefs and Threats to Their Survival . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 4.2 Climate Change Impacts on Water Scarcity in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 4.3 Water Security in the Mekong River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 4.4 Water Security in the Yangtze River Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 4.5 Meeting Irrigation Needs in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 4.6 Economic Impacts of the El Niño Events in EAP: A Preview of What Could Lie Ahead? . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 5.1 Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 5.2 Community Participation in Cambodia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31 5.3 Awareness Raising in Papua New Guinea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 5.4 Preparing for Extreme Weather Events in Iloilo, Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 5.5 Adaptation in the Re-Insurance Business . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 5.6 Tourism in Phuket, Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 5.7 Improving Rural Livelihoods Through Sustainable Watershed Management in China's Loess Plateau . . . .35 5.8 Disseminating Traditional Pasture Management in Mongolia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 5.9 Community Forestry Can Reduce Fire Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36 5.10 The Kiribati Adaptation Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37 6.1 Financing Climate Change Programs from Market Mechanisms in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43 6.2 Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Water Resources Management and a Rural Development Project in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared by a team composed of staff Robert Livernash provided editing support. Anju and consultants in the Environment and Social Devel- Sachdeva coordinated the production of the document, opment Unit of the East Asia and Pacific Region. Team Circle Graphics, Inc. was responsible for cover design, members are Neeraj Prasad (Task Team Leader), Priya and Tanyathon Phetmanee assisted with the design and Mathur, William Nicholas Bowden, Piet Buys, Jorge preparation for printing. Luis Gastelumendi, Sarath K. Guttikunda, N. Harsha- The team also acknowledges the advice, data, and deep, Takuro Kobashi, Marija Kuzmanovic and support received from the Meteorological Research Hiromi Nagai. Guidance and support was provided by Institute (MRI) and the Institute for Global Environ- Teresa Serra and Magda Lovei. Dan Biller, Robin mental Studies (IGES) of Japan, and the budgetary sup- Broadfield, Fareeha Iqbal, James Monday, Glenn Mor- port provided by the East Asia Global Environment gan, Ina Pranoto, Ida Pswarayi-Riddihough, Jay Song, Facility Regional Coordinator and the Japan Consul- David Wheeler, Anthony Whitten, and Jian Xie pro- tant Trust Fund. vided input and advice to the team. The report was peer reviewed by Ian Noble, Noreen Beg, and Chandrasekar Govindarajalu. v ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank IGES Institute for Global Environmental CAIT Climate Analysis Indicators Tool Studies CARE Cooperative for Assistance and Relief IIASA International Institute for Applied Everywhere Systems Analysis CDIAC Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Center Change CDM Clean Development Mechanism KAP Kiribati Adaptation Program CER Certified Emission Reductions LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund CF carbon finance NAPA National Adaptation Programs of CH4 Methane Action CO2 carbon dioxide NASA National Aeronautics and Space CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent Administration COP6/7 Sixth/Seventh UNFCC Conference of NGO non-governmental organization Parties N2O Nitrus Oxide DALY disability adjusted life year SCCF Special Climate Change Fund EAP East Asia and Pacific SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ENSO El Niño southern oscillation (IPCC) EU European Union TCO2e Tons of Carbon Dioxide equivalent FAO Food and Agriculture Organization UN United Nations GDP gross domestic product UNEP United Nations Environment GEF Global Environment Facility Programme GNI gross national income UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention GNP gross national product on Climate Change GHG greenhouse gas WHO World Health Organization HFC Hydrofluorocarbons WRI World Resources Institute ICM integrated coastal management vi FOREWORD In the stark wording of the 2006 Stern Review on the snapshot of trends and projections of the expected Economics of Climate Change, "climate change threat- impacts of climate change, describe the vulnerability of ens the basic elements of life for people around the the region to these impacts, and assess the likely major world--access to water, food production, health, and consequences for the region. Beyond the scenarios and use of land and the environment." The implications for their impacts on the region's sustainability, the Mon- the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, in terms of itor looks at ways in which countries can better adapt to increasing temperatures, changing precipitation, and these impacts. The format is intended to be non- sea-level rise, need to be better understood. technical, easy to understand, and accessible to a wide The region is experiencing the world's most dynamic audience. The annexes include a profile of the EAP growth. Since 1998, its gross domestic product has region, useful links, and a reference list of selected grown by over 9 percent per year, and EAP is now the World Bank publications relating to climate change. largest destination for foreign direct investment. Given The subject of climate change is now receiving sub- its geographical characteristics, however, it is especially stantial attention from policy makers, researchers and vulnerable to climate change impacts, which will even- the public. Many of the trends highlighted in this report tually be felt throughout the region and affect virtually have been further reaffirmed and validated by the every major sector. It is, therefore, crucial that countries fourth assessment of the Inter-Governmental Panel on in the region understand the impacts of climate change Climate Change released this year. and explore ways to anticipate and adapt to these We hope that this publication will improve aware- changes. ness of the complex issues surrounding climate change The East Asia Environment Monitor on Adapting to impacts and provoke public policy debate with respect Climate Change is the first regional report in the "Envi- to how countries might adapt to the predicted impacts ronment Monitor" series. It is also the first to focus on their populations--whether they inhabit coastal entirely on climate change. It draws on a variety of cities, interior dry-lands, major river basins, or small sources and available scientific information to present a islands. Christian Delvoie Maria Teresa Serra Director, Sustainable Development Senior Advisor East Asia & Pacific Region East Asia & Pacific Region vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is becoming one of the key develop- The EAP region is home to about two billion ment issues of our time. Although the last few years people, and comprises about 16 million square kilome- have seen globally polarized and divisive positions over ters of territory. Its climate is diverse, with a wide range the extent and causes of the phenomenon, the debate is of temperatures and precipitation levels. Its lands are clearly shifting from the question of whether or not varied, encompassing arid deserts, mountains with climate change is happening to what can be done to glacial systems, rugged coasts, and fertile agricultural address its effects. It presents a unique and unprece- lands. It has thousands of islands, many just a few feet dented challenge that threatens to undermine the last above sea level, and is home to some of the most impor- century's gains in economic growth and poverty allevi- tant marine resources of the world, including coral ation. Its impacts will not be fairly or evenly distributed. reefs, a wide range of fish species, and other biodiver- The poorest countries and people, who are least respon- sity. Many people in the region are economically and sible for human contributions to climate change and nutritionally dependent on these vast resources. least able to cope with it, are expected to suffer earliest The region is particularly vulnerable to climate and most. change. Over half of its population resides in coastal loca- Most countries, including those in the World Bank's tions and in low-lying islands. Heavy reliance on agricul- East Asia and Pacific Region (EAP), have embarked on ture and growing water use, high dependency on marine mitigation initiatives to reduce dependence on fossil resources, and growing energy demand pose additional fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. There is also in- risk factors. The immediate manifestations of climate creasing consensus on another issue--the need to adapt change--higher temperatures, followed by changes in to the effects of climate change. Given the long-lived precipitation patterns, greater intensity and frequency of nature of greenhouse gases, many experts feel that adap- extreme weather events, and rising sea levels--are tation is the only response available for the impacts that expected to provoke further cascading impacts: will occur over the next few decades before mitigation measures can have an effect. In fact, even skeptics agree Environmental: changes in coastal and marine sys- that it is important to adapt to climate variability. tems, forest cover and biodiversity; EAP contributed $4 trillion to the world's GDP in Economic: reduced water security, impacts on agri- 2005, and is still growing at an amazing 9 percent per culture and fisheries, disruption of tourism, reduced year, a record that was only briefly interrupted by the energy security, which may have negative impacts on East Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s. It has had GDP; and significant success in curbing poverty, and contains sev- Social: population displacement, loss of livelihood, eral powerhouses that have made impressive infrastruc- and increased health problems. ture and industrial investments, attracting foreign resources and fostering rapid economic growth. How- Although the consequences are expected to be un- ever, there is still much to be done to address the re- evenly felt in different parts of the EAP, all countries will maining challenges of poverty, to better manage the be affected to varied degrees and combinations of the environment (sustainable natural resource use and impacts. The region's public and private sectors will pollution), and to promote broad-based sustainable need to pursue a variety of anticipatory and reactive growth. This mission will be compounded by the new strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. This challenge of climate change. will require cross-cutting responses and approaches, ix x EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 including poverty reduction and economic reforms, would help under any future scenario. They can be improving the information base, strengthening planning financed by emerging special adaptation funding, by and coordination, promoting participation and consul- re-targeting mitigation financing already available, and tation, improving disaster preparedness, investing in by mainstreaming adaptation concerns in financing technology development and dissemination, and estab- currently being used for development in the region. lishing effective financial safety nets and insurance sys- There is an urgent need for EAP countries to recog- tems. In most cases, these cross-cutting responses and nize their vulnerability to climate change and to begin approaches will need to be applied through area-specific to systematically adapt to these future scenarios. Rais- and ecosystem-level interventions focusing on coastal ing awareness among policy makers and the general cities, major river basins, agricultural areas, forest and public will enable them to make informed decisions on dryland areas, marine ecosystems, and small islands. approaches to anticipating, preparing for, and min- The adaptation measures discussed here mostly imizing the impacts of climate change on their sustain- belong to the "no-regrets" category, as actions that able development programs. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION What Is Climate Change? Simply put, the issue of climate change relates to varia- relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of tions in our climate which can be attributed directly or human-induced climate change, its potential impacts indirectly to human activity that increases the concen- and options for adaptation and mitigation." The 1992 tration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the global atmo- United Nations Conference on Environment and Devel- sphere. Such human- induced change occurs in addition opment (also known as the Rio Earth Summit) produced to natural climate variability observed over comparable several landmark treaties, including the UN Framework time periods (IPCC, 2001) (Box 1.1). Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), aiming The global community has been engaged on this sub- to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at ject for more than two decades. The Intergovernmental a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in interference with the climate system. After five years 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and of negotiations, in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol to the the UN Environment Programme to "assess on a com- UNFCCC assigned mandatory targets for the reduc- prehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the tion of GHG emissions to signatory nations. The Pro- scientific, technical and socio-economic information tocol entered into force on February 16, 2005, and Box 1.1 The Greenhouse Effect When the sun's energy reaches the atmosphere, some some are produced entirely from human activities. of it is reflected back into space, while some (mainly Since GHG emissions are largely the result of the light) enters the atmosphere and warms the Earth. combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, The amount of the sun's energy that reaches the developed countries have traditionally been major Earth's surface should normally be the same as the contributors to global warming. amount of energy radiated back into space, leaving the temperature of the Earth's surface roughly con- stant. However, over time, rising concentrations of GHGs increase the absorption of the outgoing radi- ation and the trapping of heat in the atmosphere, producing an increase in the Earth's average temper- ature--a phenomenon commonly referred to as the "enhanced greenhouse effect" or "global warming." Many gases exhibit "greenhouse" properties. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol specifically targets six: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocar- bons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Some of these gases occur naturally; others are generated from both human activity and natural conditions; and Source of chart: US EPA. 1 2 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 supports a number of initiatives to reduce emissions of at some 15 percent below their expected GHG emis- CO2 and other GHGs. sions in 2008. The Kyoto Protocol includes "flexible The IPCC has provided four periodic assessments, and mechanisms" which allow Annex 1 economies to meet its latest (Fourth) Report indicates that human activity their GHG targets by obtaining GHG emission reduc- over the past century has greatly increased the amount of tions from other countries. These can be bought from GHGs in the atmosphere, contributing to an average tem- financial exchanges (such as the EU's Emissions Trad- perature increase of 0.74°C. It has concluded that 11 of ing Scheme) or from specific projects where the cost the last 12 years (1995­2006) rank among the 12 warmest of emission reduction may be lower in non-Annex 1 years since 1850, when instrumental records of such tem- economies under the Clean Development Mechanism peratures started to be maintained. The IPCC has exam- (CDM). Emission reductions can also be obtained from ined many plausible scenarios of climate change (based on other Annex 1 countries under the Joint Implementa- the efforts made to control GHG emissions), and has esti- tion scheme for economies in transition (mainly the for- mated several scenarios of temperature rise, and its impli- mer Soviet Union and Eastern Europe). cations in terms of changes in precipitation patterns, sea Developed countries have been major contributors to level rise, and other impacts (discussed below). the creation of the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries are separated since the 1850s. While developing countries, including into two general categories: developed countries (referred EAP nations, have contributed very little to the stock of to as Annex 1 countries), who have accepted GHG emis- total GHG emissions in the past, this trend is expected to sion reduction obligations; and developing countries change over the coming decades, as shown in Figure 1.1. (referred to as Non-Annex 1 countries), who have no The region's rapidly industrializing countries, notably GHG emission reduction obligations but must submit China, are responsible for a growing and significant an annual GHG inventory. By 2008­2012, Annex 1 share of the annual flow of current global emissions countries have committed to reduce their GHG emis- (Figure 1.2). For the period 1999­2000, 18.7 percent of sions by an average of 5 percent below their 1990 levels. global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion were For many countries, such as the European Union (EU) estimated to originate in the developing countries of member states, this corresponds to required reductions East Asia and the Pacific. Figure 1.1 World Energy Related CO2 Emissions, 2000­2025 Source: World Resources Institute. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 3 Figure 1.2 EAP's Share of Global GHG Figure 1.3 GHG Emissions by Source, Emissions, 2000 (percentage) 2000 A. Emissions by major EAP country Energy Emissions Non-energy Emissions [Regional total: 6,153 million TCO2e] Other energy related 5% Malaysia 3% 2% Vietnam Industry 14% 3% Waste Thailand 4% 2% Philippines Indonesia 8% 14% Agriculture Power 24% 18% Land use Transport 14% Buildings 8% 81% China Total emissions in 2000: 42 GICO2e. Energy emissions are mostly CO2 (some non-CO2 in B: Largest Global Emission sources industry and other energy related). Non-energy emissions Canada 3% 2% South Africa are CO2 (land use) and non-CO2 (agriculture and waste). Brazil 3% 2% Australia Source: Stern Review (using WRI-CAIT data). Japan 5% 2% Mexico India 8% Russian the steep spike in global temperatures, in the likely 28% USA Federation 8% range of 1.1 to 6.4° C, which is expected to occur in the 21st century in accordance with the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). As a result of EU 19% this increase, precipitation patterns are expected to 20% China change significantly, as illustrated by projected changes in runoff by 2050, making some areas much more Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Ver- humid and others much drier (Figure 1.5). Extreme sion 4.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, weather events (severe storms, floods, droughts and heat 2007). waves) are expected to become more intense and fre- quent. Sea levels are also expected to rise1 by 18 to 59 cm by 2100 (Figure 1.6). These changes can already be observed. The Fourth GHG emissions result predominantly from energy Assessment Report informs that there have been wide- use--the burning of fossil fuels in power generation, spread changes in extreme temperatures, droughts have transport, industry and buildings--which jointly become longer and more intense, the frequency of amounted to 65 per cent of total emissions in 2000 as heavy precipitation has increased over most land areas, shown in Figure 1.3. Agriculture, deforestation and and arctic sea ice has shrunk by 2.7 percent per decade. other land use changes are also important contribu- Figure 1.7 illustrates such changes in atmospheric CO2 tors and will be of relevance in the global mitigation concentration, global surface air temperature, and sea effort. Expected Changes in the 1. Sea levels can also change due to a combination of factors such as tectonic movement and oceanic currents. It is possible that a Global Climate larger rise in sea level (>1m) could be observed by 2100, if there is enhanced polar ice and glacial melting (Overpeck et al., 2006), The initial manifestation of climate change is a rapid but this is considered by some analysts to be a low probability rise in temperatures over the globe. Figure 1.4 illustrates (Vaughan and Spouge, 2002). 4 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Figure 1.4 Global Temperature Changes in the Last Millennium and Estimated Rise, 2000­2100 Source: IPCC, 2001. level rise. Figure 1.8 shows changes in hurricane pat- accumulation in the atmosphere is 430 ppm. In a terns over the past 30 years. "business as usual" scenario, an accumulation level of 450 ppm CO2e is expected to be reached by 2015. The scientific evidence currently available suggests that at Cascading Effects 550 ppm, impacts would be very serious. Figure 1.9 also illustrates the types of impacts that The rise in temperature, changes in precipitation pat- could be experienced as the world comes into equilib- terns, increased intensity of extreme weather events, and rium, at different levels of accumulation of CO2e in sea level rise are expected to have further cascading the atmosphere, depending to a large extent upon the impacts. These have been illustrated in the Stern Review.2 mitigation choices undertaken by governments. The As shown in Figure 1.9, expected climate change impacts top panel shows the range of temperatures projected at rise with the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. stabilization levels between 400 ppm and 750 ppm The current level of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)3 CO2e concentrations. The bottom panel illustrates the range of impacts expected at different levels of CO2e 2. Stern, 2006, Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, concentration. Cambridge University Press, HM Treasury, Cambridge In addition to the impacts referred to previously 3. The cumulative level from CO2, CH4, N2O and other GHGs (changes in precipitation patterns, increase in the ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 5 Figure 1.5 Estimated Global Average Sea Level Rise, 2000­2100 Source: IPCC, 2001c. Figure 1.6 Percentage Change in Precipitation Runoff by 2050 Source: Milly et al., 2005. 6 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Figure 1.7 The Climate Has Been Changing Figure 1.8 The Intensity of Extreme Climate Events Is Going Up (a) Atmospheric CO2 concentration record (ppm) 1958­2005 3 90 3 80 million) 3 70 per 3 60 (parts 3 50 3 40 3 30 Concentrations 3 20 2 CO 3 10 1 95 5 1 96 0 1 96 5 1 97 0 1 97 5 1 98 0 1 98 5 1 99 0 1 99 5 2 00 0 2 00 5 Source: Keeling et al., 2006. (b) Global surface air temperature change (°C) Source: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2006. in the same period 0.8 Annual Mean 0.6 intensity of extreme weather events, and sea level rise), 5-yr Average C) o ( 0.4 impacts are also expected to occur on food and water Anamoly 0.2 supplies and on ecosystems. 0 The impacts of climate change will be different across the globe, with developing countries being most Temperature -0.2 Surface significantly affected. The Stern review points out -0.4 that with 5­6°C warming--which is a real possibility -0.6 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 for the next century--the existing models estimate an average 5­10 percent loss in global GDP, with Source: NASA, 2006. poor countries suffering costs in excess of 10 percent of GDP. The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to cli- (c) Sea level rise from 1992­2006 using satellite mate change (as they are to other forms of environ- measurements mental deterioration), because they depend on natural resources and have limited capital--human, institu- 40 tional, and financial--to deal with and adapt to cli- 35 30 mate variability and extremes. Future climate change 25 20 is likely to have a major impact on the dominant eco- (mm) 15 Rise nomic activities of the poor, threatening livelihoods 10 5 Level and negatively affecting natural resources, and thus 0 Sea -5 compounding poverty. Climate change is, therefore, -10 Mean -15 a serious risk to poverty reduction programs currently -20 underway, raising the need for prioritizing adaptation -25 1 99 2 1 99 4 1 99 6 1 99 8 2 00 0 2 00 2 2 00 4 2 00 6 measures in developing countries' policy making processes. Source: University of Colorado, 2006. The following chapters focus on the EAP region, discussing how its climate is expected to change, what impacts will be felt, and some of the measures that could be taken to address the adaptation challenge. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 7 Figure 1.9 Stabilization Levels and Probability Ranges for Temperature Increases Source: Stern, 2006. CHAPTER 2 THE EAP DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT Rapid Growth, Poverty Reduction and Environmental Degradation The countries of the EAP region, with a population of Annex A summarizes key indicators for the countries 1.87 billion, have experienced remarkable economic in the region. growth. During the period 1990­2003, East Asia and the Pacific had the fastest growth rates in the world, with an average annual rate of 6.2 percent. After the economic Why is EAP Vulnerable to crisis of the late 1990s, investments in infrastructure and Climate Change? other sectors have risen considerably, and commerce and Climate change can undermine EAP's progress in trade have transformed the region's economy. At the advancing economic growth and reducing poverty, and national level, economies have diversified, with industry can compound environmental degradation. The vulner- and services replacing agriculture as the primary engine ability of EAP can be attributed to the following key of growth in many countries. In 2006, regional growth characteristics: large percentage of its population living rates were expected to reach 8 percent, sustained by con- along the coast and on many low-lying islands; heavy tinued strong growth in China, and strong growth in reliance on agriculture and growing water use; and exports throughout the region. high dependency on marine resources. In addition, the These decades of growth were accompanied by region's increasing energy demand and its heavy reliance a major reduction in poverty. However, despite the on fuel-based solutions pose a potential constraint to achievements made over the past decades, there are future economic growth. significant remaining differences across the region and within countries. Even now, around 29 percent of the region's population of nearly 2 billion earns less than Large Coastal Populations and Large Number $2 a day (World Bank, 2006b), although if present of Low-lying Small Islands trends continue, the World Bank estimates that East A quarter of EAP's total population of 1.7 billion Asia could almost eliminate poverty within a decade resides in the coastal areas (Middleton, 1999; World (World Bank, 2006). Bank, 2006) (Figure 2.1). This number can be expected Economic growth has come at an environmental to increase significantly over the coming decades, given cost. Most of the countries in the EAP region are dependent on natural resources (World Bank, 2006a) that are already threatened by rapid growth even with- out computing the impacts of climate change. Indone- sia's rate of deforestation almost doubled between 1985 and 1997, from 1 million to 1.7 million hectares per year, and has not abated since. In the Philippines, it is estimated that 58 percent of groundwater is con- taminated. In China, damage caused to agriculture and health by SO2 and NO2 emissions from coal use, is currently estimated to result in costs reaching 3 to 7 percent of GDP, and could grow to as high as 13 percent of GDP by 2020 if environmental issues are not properly addressed (World Bank, 2005c). 9 10 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Figure 2.1 Population at risk in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ) 140 60% 120 50% Zones 100 40% LECZ Coastal in 80 30% inmillions 60 Population Low-Elevation (LECZ) in 20% Country 40 % Population 10% 20 0 0% China Indonesia Vietnam Japan Thailand Philippines Population in LECZ (millions) % of population in LECZ Source: McGranahan et. al, 2006. current rates of urbanization and the concentration archipelagos, as is the case of Indonesia, the Philippines of economic activities along the coast. While urban pop- and Kiribati. In most small islands, the majority of the ulations in countries such as Vietnam are especially vul- population's habitat, economic activity, and infrastruc- nerable to the risks of climate change, sea level rise in ture are located within a few hundred meters of the coast. particular, the numbers are also rapidly increasing in With some of the most important marine resources of the other countries. For example, in China, the urban popu- world, including coral reefs, a wide range of fish species, lation is now around 400 million, of which over 130 mil- and other biodiversity, island populations are highly lion people live on the coast. For the country as a whole, dependent, both economically and nutritionally, on the urban population is expected to increase by over 125 these natural resources and on tourism. percent in the next 25 years with greater concentration in Vulnerability assessments suggest that climate change coastal locations. In some areas, such as the Greater Pearl will impose diverse and significant impacts on these River Delta, urbanization and land use change is already states (Leatherman, 1997). occurring at a dramatic pace. (Figure 2.2) As more people settle in coastal areas, increasing pres- Heavy Reliance on Agriculture sure is placed on both land and sea resources. Natural and Growing Water Use landscapes and habitats are altered, and destroyed to accommodate a growing population and new land uses. Agricultural activities represent 13 percent of EAP's For example, lagoons and coastal waters are "reclaimed," GDP, but in some countries, they account for as much wetlands are drained or polluted, habited floodplains as one-third of GDP. An estimated 60 percent of people near estuaries are degraded, and mangroves and other live in rural areas and 50 percent of land is dedicated to forests are cut down. All of these actions pose a threat to agriculture (World Bank, 2006c). These figures illustrate the resilience of human and environmental coastal sys- the important role agriculture plays as a source of both tems, and increase the likelihood that the impact of nat- income and food for the population. ural calamities will be more strongly felt. Agricultural land is being subjected to increasing EAP has thousands of islands, many just a few feet degradation and pressure from population growth, above sea level, with several countries entirely formed by urbanization, and economic development. In the next ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 11 Figure 2.2 Land Use in the Greater Pearl River Delta Note: Urbanized areas represented in red Source: Institute for the Environment, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Civic Exchange. fifty years, it is estimated that in Asia, every hectare of EAP dominates world aquaculture, producing 70 per- paddy fields, which currently feeds 27 people, will need cent of all farmed fish, shrimp, and shellfish (FAO, to feed 43 people (IRRI, 2006). The transition from 1997). For example, in the Philippines, the fisheries sec- subsistence agriculture toward intensification, com- tor accounts for about 2.2 percent of GDP and employs mercialization, and industrialization in response to nearly a million people. Of these, about 26 percent are increased population and changing consumption pat- engaged in aquaculture operations, 6 percent in com- terns has led to increased water pollution and degrada- mercial fishing, and 68 percent in marine and fresh- tion of the physical, chemical, and biological properties water municipal fishing (i.e., small-scale, or traditional of the soil, resulting in lower productivity. Intensive fisheries) (Lim et al., 1995). use has often made land more vulnerable to natural dis- However, commercial aquaculture requires land and asters in coastal areas, floodplains, rangelands, moun- water--two resources that are already in short supply tains, and rural watersheds. in many countries in EAP. In addition, the fishery Rapid economic and population growth and migra- resources in EAP countries are being depleted by over- tion from rural to urban areas are placing severe stress on fishing, excessive use of pesticides, industrial pollu- urban water supply and sanitation systems, increasing tion, diseases, red tide,4 and construction of dikes and competition for surface and groundwater resources and other coastal structures (Zou and Wu, 1993; Sato and resulting in deteriorating water quality. Water scarcity Mimura, 1997). Loss of inshore fish nursery habitats to problems are increasing in the northern part of China coastal development as well as pollution from land- and in large- and medium-sized urban areas through- based activities causes significant change to ecosystems out the region. Water quality is deteriorating in both rural and urban areas throughout the region due to uncontrolled point-source and diffuse pollution and salt 4. Red tide: A common name for a phenomenon known as an algal water intrusion (UNEP 2000). The damage and threats bloom, an event in which estuarine or marine algae accumulate posed by floods and droughts are becoming more severe rapidly in the water column. These algae, more correctly termed phytoplankton are microscopic, single-celled, plant-like organisms as development and population pressures increase and as that can form dense, visible patches near the water's surface char- the effects of climate change start to accelerate. acterized by a red or brown discoloring of surface waters, usually in coastal regions. The color occurs as a result of the reaction of a red pigment, peridinin, to light during photosynthesis. Poisonous sub- High Dependency on Marine Resources stances produced by the algae result in a massive deaths and illnesses of fish and marine mammals, and the decomposition of algae robs Commercial and subsistence marine and freshwater the water of large amounts of oxygen These toxic algal blooms fisheries and aquaculture are important for food secu- pose a serious threat to marine life and are potentially harmful to rity and the economies of many countries in the region. humans. (Science Glossary, Ocean Institute). 12 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 supporting fisheries. Marine productivity is also greatly the world average), as compared to the United States, affected by temperature changes that control plankton where consumption is 13 MWh per person per year. shift. For example, cyclical occurrence of the ENSO in In many EAP countries, energy intensity (energy low latitudes induces seasonal shifting of sardine popu- used per unit of output) has not changed significantly lations in the Sea of Japan. (Chen and Shen, 1999; over the last 25 years. The primary exception is China, Piyakarnchana, 1999; Terazaki, 1999). where it has been reduced to 38 percent of the 1980 levels. This progress has been remarkable, even as compared to other large energy users, and is the result Growing Energy Demand of policies geared towards reducing energy demand Most EAP countries are largely dependent on GHG- through energy saving regulations, changes in energy emitting fossil fuels to meet their energy needs. The subsidies and incentives structures (Biller et al., 2006). demand for energy is growing rapidly, especially in Security of supply is an issue for all EAP countries. China, and it is primarily driven by fossil fuel com- Although in most countries the growth of industrial- bustion. Overall energy consumption in EAP has risen ization has tended to polarize discussions about the by more than 40 percent in the last decade alone. need for energy security at the country level versus con- Per-capita electricity consumption, however, is low in cerns for mitigating global warming, energy policy and the region. For example, China consumes only about investment choices today need to carefully consider the 1 Megawatt-hour (MWh)5 per person per year (half of trade-offs between current and long-term needs. 5. Enough electricity to switch on three 60-watt light bulbs for six hours a day, 365 days per year. CHAPTER 3 HOW WILL EAP'S CLIMATE CHANGE? Climate Change and variations are less extreme, although temperatures of over Climate Diversity 45°C occur over the northwest part of the region during May-June (IPCC, 2001). Climate variability can also be Over the course of this century, climate change is significant within countries. For example, while climate expected to have significant impacts in the East Asia and in Indonesia and the Philippines is fairly homogeneous Pacific region, according to the IPCC.6 The change across each of these countries, China's land area includes could be quite complex, given the already considerable four of the five climate classifications generated by the climate diversity in EAP as compared to other regions, Koeppen-Geiger model.7 This variability will have impli- and suggested by the Koeppen-Geiger climate classifi- cations for national adaptation strategies. cation (Figure 3.1). In addition, climate in many EAP countries, specifi- Indicative of this diversity is the fact that, for EAP cally those located in tropical Asia is strongly influenced countries near the Equator, only small seasonal variations by the monsoon system that could in turn be signifi- in temperature occur; while in other parts of the region, cantly impacted by climate change. Temporal and spa- countries experience clearly marked cold and warm sea- tial variations in rainfall are increasingly becoming more sons. During winter, the spatial range of temperature in extreme. For example, the summer monsoon is reported the EAP region is significantly large; during summer, to be stronger in northern China during globally warmer years (Ren et al., 2000). On the other hand, drier condi- tions have prevailed over most of the monsoon-affected 6. IPCC, 2001b areas during globally colder years (Yu and Neil, 1991). Figure 3.1 Koeppen-Geiger Climate Expected Changes in the Classification Region's Climate Temperatures Will Rise According to the IPCC's middle-range scenario,8 the entire EAP region will experience a significant rise of about 2.5° C in temperature by the end of the century. The spatial distribution of estimated temperature changes is presented in Figure 3.2. Manifestations of this change will include the following: Winter temperatures will change more than summer temperatures. 7. Available at http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at. This model for climate classification is based on the characteristics of the Note: The colors indicate combinations of climate, pre- mean annual cycle of temperature and precipitation coupled with cipitation and temperature environmental characteristics (e.g., vegetation) for the definition Source: Kottels, et al., 2006. of boundaries separating different climate types. 8. IPCC SRES 2001. 13 14 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 level of uncertainty (Kamiguchi et al., 2006). Annual Figure 3.2 Annual Mean Temperature mean precipitation is expected to increase about 14 and Change Expected in the 21st Century 4 percent respectively, in East Asia and in South East Asia (Figure 3.3). In general, present arid and semi-arid regions are expected to become drier, and wet regions will become wetter (IPCC, 2001b). Thus, a more pro- nounced water resource shortage in the dry regions is expected, while increased precipitation in temperate and tropical Asia during the summer monsoon will likely cause more frequent and severe floods. The tem- perature changes are also expected to lead to increased losses of water through evaporation, reducing runoff and soil moisture in many areas. Extreme Weather Events Will Increase Many scientists also predict a change in extreme weather Source: IPCC SRES A1B scenario, Uchiyama et al., 2006. events, with an increase in stronger and more fre- quent cyclones and stronger summer monsoons due to changes in ocean heat and water vapor.9 Sea-level rise would magnify the impacts of such cyclones, with Minimum daily temperatures will rise more than floods from higher storm surges and strong winds maximum daily temperatures. increasing the vulnerability of low-lying coastal settle- Land will warm more than oceans, causing stronger ments. Further inland, a significant increase in extreme monsoon activity. precipitation is expected in areas such as the Yangtze Higher latitudes and altitudes will experience greater River basin in China, suggesting the likely occurrence warming. of severe floods. Based on trends observed over the The number of frost days will decrease and precipi- past 25 years, the IPCC models suggest that, overall, tation is more likely to be rain instead of snowfall. the Asia-Pacific region will experience more El Nino- On land, there will be both positive and negative impacts. Increased temperatures (sometimes even under conditions 9. http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/hurricanes- of increasing precipitation) may cause more evaporation, and-climate-change.html reducing runoff and soil moisture, and thus negatively affecting agriculture. However, the length of the agri- cultural growing season is expected to increase, expanding Figure 3.3 Precipitation Changes into the colder season. Spatial and temporal temperature Expected by 2100 changes can alter animal migration and vegetation pat- terns. In the sea, changes will include increased bleaching of coral reefs and distributional impacts on marine species. These impacts are described further in Chapter 4. Precipitation Patterns Will Change The relationship between global average temperature changes and regional climate change is very uncertain, especially with regard to changes in precipitation. How- ever, in general, warmer air holds more moisture; thus a rise in temperatures will tend to accelerate water uptake, disrupting hydrological cycles and precipitation patterns. Studies suggest that changes are already observable, and are likely to intensify with additional warming. Note: Annual mean of daily precipitation: mm/day Recent climate models provide conservative future Source: Kamiguchi et al., 2006. scenarios for changes in precipitation, albeit with a high ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 15 like conditions (Box 3.1) and that these events will become stronger and more frequent. (IPCC, 2001b) Figure 3.4 Area at Risk from a (Figure 3.4). 0.5m Sea-Level Rise in Asia Sea Level Will Rise Using a mid-range from IPCC's scenarios, a sea level rise of 18 to 59 cm can be projected in the next century. This will significantly affect EAP's coasts, deltas, and islands and could have severe impacts on coastal ecosystems and communities (Figure 3.5). Affected areas are likely to Box 3.1 How El Niño Affects the Southern Pacific The El Niño event is a climatic phenomenon Source: Bardach, John E., Coastal Zone Activities and Sea caused by high sea-surface temperatures in the Level Rise. East-West Center. Environmental and Policy eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It occurs about Institute. Working paper no. 11, 1988, p8. Adapted from every 2 to 7 years and lasts typically for 12 to Dupont and Pearman (2006). 18 months. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, is a term for the year-to-year variations in sea-surface temperatures, surface air pressure, convective rainfall, and atmospheric cir- Figure 3.5 Global Impacts of culation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Sea Level Rise Ocean. El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle. Under normal conditions, the trade winds blow toward the west across the tropical Pacific. These winds pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific, so that the sea surface is about 0.5 meters higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador. During an El Niño event, the direction of trade winds changes from westward to eastward. The eastward displacement of the atmospheric heat source overlaying the warmest water results in large changes in the global atmospheric circula- tion, which in turn force changes in weather in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface tem- peratures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode. El Niño contributes to more eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. La Niña contributes to fewer eastern Pacific hurri- canes and more Atlantic hurricanes. Source: NOAA 2006. Source: Dasgupta, et al., 2007. 16 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 include cities such as Shanghai, deltas such as that of the A recent World Bank study10 reviews new data on Mekong, and islands such as Micronesia, French Poly- rates of deglaciation in Greenland and Antarctica and nesia and Tuvalu. Impacts will occur on both urban and projects sea level rise at two to five times higher than the rural settlements along the coast and will affect housing, IPCC estimates. If these more extreme scenarios were infrastructure and economic facilities. This is expected to come about, Vietnam and other countries in South to be exacerbated by the subsidence or sinking of delta East Asia may be very significantly impacted. Particu- land, coastal wetland degradation, and loss of coral reefs. larly in Vietnam, areas south of Ho Chi Minh City If the sea level rises by one meter or more (near the would face inundation (Figure 3.6). higher end of the IPCC projections), the impacts would be significantly higher in several EAP countries. 10. Dasgupta et al., WPS 4136, 2007 Figure 3.6 Inundation Scenarios for Vietnam for 1 and 3 Meters SLR Source: Dasgupta, et al., 2007. CHAPTER 4 EXPECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN EAP The changes discussed in Chapter 3 will have diverse Damage to delta ecosystems. Delta and estuarine and potentially significant impacts on the people, the ecosystems are especially sensitive to sea level rise and environment and the economy of the EAP region. The increasing shoreline wave action, and are more prone cascade impacts of climate change are expected to vary to saltwater intrusion as a result. For example, in the significantly depending on the magnitude of changes Greater Pearl River Delta, it is estimated that the tidal in climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, boundary will move, bringing salt water upstream, a and sea level, when these are superimposed on existing further 3 km with a sea level rise of 40 to 60 cm. In physical, environmental and socioeconomic condi- Guangzhou, China even during periods of low tide, tions. The major implications of climate change can salt water is expected to intrude into water bodies, be structured in three distinct but highly interrelated negatively affecting drinking water supply (Tracy, categories: 2006). Mangrove forests, which exist at the interface of fresh and salt water, are highly vulnerable to cli- Environmental: changes in coastal and marine sys- mate change-induced sea-level rise due to changes in tems, forest cover and biodiversity; salinity distribution. However, while sea-level rise will Economic: threat to water security, impacts on agri- threaten some existing mangroves, the new coastal culture and fisheries, disruption of tourism, reduced boundaries will cause a shifting of zones suitable for energy security, which may have negative impacts on new mangroves. Large-scale changes in species com- GDP; and position in mangrove forests can be expected as a Social: population displacement, loss of livelihood, result of changes in sedimentation and organic accu- and increased health problems. mulation, the nature of the coastal profile, and species interaction (Aksornkaoe and Paphavasit, 1993). It is expected that the EAP region could be signifi- Impacts on small islands. Coastal retreat and ero- cantly impacted by climate change in all of these three sion resulting from sea level variability and sea level dimensions. rise is a major problem, affecting tourism building stocks and beaches in low-lying areas, and is of spe- cial concern to small island states. Coastal retreat Environmental Impacts over the last few decades may have been around 15 Climate change in EAP will have adverse impacts on to 20 meters in certain locations (Mimura & Nunn, coastal and marine systems and on forests and bio- 1998). Low-lying atoll islands such as Beachcomber diversity. and Treasure Island could be completely lost as a result of sea level rise. Changes to Coastal and Marine Systems The World Bank assessed the impact of sea level rise Climate change is likely to affect coastal and marine at four different sites in Viti Levu: Suva Peninsula, areas, and small islands through the following: (i) sea Korotogo on the central coast (Viti Levu's major tourist level rise that would lead to increased erosion and inun- area), Tuvu in the north, and the Western Rewa River dation; (ii) more intense cyclones and storm surges; and Delta. The study estimated that at Korotogo, the shore- (iii) higher sea surface temperatures and changes in line could retreat by 1­3 meters by 2050 and up to ocean chemistry. 9 meters in 2100 (Figure 4.1) (World Bank, 2000). 17 18 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Figure 4.1 Projected Impacts of a 1m Sea-Level Rise Scenario Source: World Bank, 2007a. Loss of coral reefs. Coral reefs in South East Asia the Indian and the western Pacific Oceans. Although have been steadily degrading over the past 100 years. many coral reefs are showing some signs of minimal The reefs surveyed regularly over the past 10 years had recovery, with stronger recovery in well-managed and live coral cover of less than 75 percent; and nearly remote reefs, studies have suggested that global warm- a third had less than 25 percent cover (Wilkinson, ing will reduce the world's coral reefs in an extremely 2004). Reef-building corals depend on symbiotic short timeframe (Wilkinson, 2004). By the end of the algae to photosynthesize much of their food. Surface century, the trend could decimate coral reefs seriously waters that are warmer than normal can "bleach" reducing associated tourism incomes, as well as reduc- corals by depleting their photosynthetic pigments, or ing their ecosystem services including their value as can even make them expel their algae. Rising ocean coastal protection, reducing food security, and foster- temperature and growing acidity are the main causes ing biodiversity (Box 4.1) of coral mortality. ENSO events have been associated with extensive coral bleaching in the Pacific in the Changes in Forest Cover and Biodiversity early 1990s. In the El Niño/La Niña global coral bleaching event of 1998, 16 percent of the world's Biodiversity is at particular risk in the EAP region. coral reefs were destroyed, with the most damage in Already threatened by habitat loss, pollution, and over- ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 19 exploitation, species and natural systems are now faced with the need to adapt to new regimes of temperature and precipitation, or face extinction. Sea temperature increases associated with El Niño events have been implicated in reproductive failure in seabirds, and major shifts in island food webs (IPCC, 2001b).11 A wide range of other changes might be expected, including alterations in absolute and relative population size, alti- tudinal distribution of vegetation types, changes in fish distributions due to changed river flows, and bird migra- tion patterns as the stop-over resources such as seasonal lakes and marshes change in character. The impacts could include the following: Tropical and temperate forests. Changes in forest cover in EAP will be associated with changes in water availability and shifts in temperature and precipita- tion, as well as persistence or extinction of pollinating and fruit-dispersing animals. This in turn may result Box 4.1 Economic Importance of Coral in altered growing seasons and boundary shifts among Reefs and Threats to Their Survival grasslands and seasonal forests. The impacts generated by these changes include the local extinction, replace- ment and migration of species; increased or decreased Coral reefs are important for food security and soil nutrient availability and soil water-holding tourism revenues. They function as protective bar- capacity; increased emissions of GHGs (particularly riers for beaches and coasts by reducing incident methane) from wetlands; and increased probability of wave energy through the processes of wave reflec- outbreaks of pests, particularly insects, to drought- tion, dissipation, and shoaling. They are also stressed trees (IPCC, 2001b). With an increase of significant contributors to the economic resource average temperature of 1° C, it is estimated that the base of many small island states. The potential eco- wild fire season would lengthen by 30 percent in nomic value of well-managed coral reefs in South North Asia leading to further mortality and habitat East Asia is estimated at 42.5 percent of the global loss (Vorobyov, 2004). total of $29.8 billion, and can be disaggregated as Expansion of semi-arid drylands. The Asia-Pacific follows: reef fisheries are estimated to have an eco- region is responsible for about 75 percent of all nomic value of $2.2 billion; reef tourism is valued human-induced salinization in arid, semi-arid, and at $4.8 billion; reef benefits to coastal protection dry sub-humid areas--the susceptible drylands of the are estimated to be $5 billion; and their potential world (UNEP, 1997). The region has a large pro- biodiversity value (based on possible pharmaceuti- portion of semi-arid drylands that threaten to turn cal uses) is $0.5 billion (Wilkinson, 2004). into fully arid areas under climate change. For exam- Corals have narrow temperature and salinity ple, a new desert is reportedly forming on the eastern tolerance. If the temperature increase is relatively small (e.g., 1­2° C) for a short period, bleached edge of China's Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which has traditionally been a plentiful grassland area that corals may recover, though with reduced growth herders rely on for their survival (Li, 2007). and impaired reproductive capabilities (IPCC, Changes in species distribution, abundance, and 2001b). But if the temperature elevation is sub- habitat. The distribution of species in ecosystems stantial over an extended period (for example, 3­4° C for over 6 months), significant coral mor- in Asia is projected to shift to higher elevations and tality is likely. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are also making the world's 11. The sex ratio of hatchlings of many reptiles depends on the oceans more acidic, making it harder for corals incubation temperature. For example, at higher temperatures and plankton to form their body parts. crocodile embryos tend to become male, while turtle embryos tend to become female. Crocodiles tend the nest and attempt to Source: Wilkinson, 2004. maintain a moderate temperature, but other reptiles leave the temperature to nature. 20 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 latitudes as a result of global warming. The rates of tation also affect the timing and availability of flow- vegetation colonization are expected to be slow and ers, seeds, and other food sources for the birds when constrained by increased erosion and overland water they reach their destinations. Moreover, birds that flows. It is estimated that many species would be rely on very specific habitats for at least part of their exterminated due to the synergistic effects of climate life cycle could become extinct if their habitat dis- change and habitat fragmentation (Ishigami, et al., appears. For each of these reasons, many bird species 2005). Furthermore, many species of animals and are considered to be particularly vulnerable to global plants are restricted to high mountain tops. As the warming and associated climate change (Both and climate warms, ecological zones will shift upwards Visser, 2001). and, unlike species lower down, mountain-top species Reduced ecosystem services. Species diversity aids in will have nowhere to go.12 regulating ecosystem services such as erosion control, Invasive species. These are species `alien' to the maintaining soil fertility, filtering pollutants and deliv- ecosystems to which they are introduced and which ering clean water to streams and rivers, cycling nutri- find conditions so conducive that they spread rapidly, ents, pollinating plants (including crops), buffering often causing economic and environmental impacts or against pests and diseases, and providing cultural and harm to human health.13 Invasive animals can cause amenity services, as well as food and traditional medi- ecological havoc by preying on local species and out- cines. It is possible that, as the climate changes and as competing native species for limited resources. The species are eliminated from an area, there may be effect on native biodiversity can be severe. It is esti- changes in some ecosystem functions. This could mated that, globally, 42 percent of the species on the mean more land degradation, changes in agricultural threatened or endangered species lists are at risk productivity, and a reduction in the quality of water primarily because of invasive aliens species.14 How- delivered to human populations. ever, in EAP, it appears that most terrestrial impacts are in human-modified habitats. Climate change may aid in the appearance and survival of new inva- Economic Impacts sive species (e.g., increased temperatures can enable Climate change can make the impressive economic gains disease-carrying mosquitoes to expand their ranges), of the EAP region less sustainable. The need to divert while inhibiting the ability of local and indigenous scarce finances to climate change adaptation, away from species to adapt to a rapidly-changing climate. other investments for economic growth and poverty alle- Changes in migratory patterns. EAP is indicated as viation, will be discussed in Chapter 5. This section the region with the highest density of globally threat- focuses on the key impacts on assets and livelihoods asso- ened bird species.15 Like many plants and animals, ciated with climate change in EAP, which include threats birds' life cycles and behavior are closely linked with to water security, impacts on agriculture and fisheries, the changing seasons. For neotropical migrant species, disruption of tourism, and reduced energy security. changes in weather help signal when they should begin their long flights southward in the fall and back Threat to Water Security again in the spring. Global warming may cause migration and nesting to get out of step with food Water, critical to economic growth and poverty allevi- supplies. Variables such as temperature and precipi- ation in EAP, is especially vulnerable to climate change. There are already many existing threats to water security (increasing demand and pollution; unsustainable ground- 12. This effect has already been observed in Central America. water extraction, waterlogging, salinization, watershed (Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to degradation and siltation; droughts, floods and other dis- recent climate change. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37: 637­669). asters; limited shared vision planning, lack of coopera- Unfortunately there are few, if any, detailed biological monitor- tion and water rights conflicts). Significant and complex ing or active research program focusing on EAP's mountains. 13. Relevant examples in Asia are the golden apple snail, red-eared water security changes are expected to be associated slider turtle, tilapia, black-striped mussel, cane toad, African catfish, with changes in temperature and precipitation, as well Louisiana crayfish, lantana, water hyacinth, salvinia, mile-a-minute, as changes in the delta regions of major river basins, spiraling whitefly, diamond-backed moth, epizootic ulcerative syn- associated with sea level rise, coastal storms, and salt- drome on fish, and avian influenza virus. GISP 2004. Tropical Asia water intrusion. The economy and livelihoods in the invaded: the growing danger of invasive alien species. GISP, Cape Town. region could be fundamentally impacted by these 14. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, 2005. changes. Key incremental threats to water security from 15. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. climate change include: ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 21 Too much and too little water. In general, EAP will shrunk by almost 6,600 km2 since the 1960s. Chi- receive more precipitation. This could have both nese glaciers have decreased by 7 percent in size, los- positive effects (such as more cereal production in ing about 500 billion cubic meters of stored water rainfed areas in northern China) and negative effects annually (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chi- (increased floods threatening livelihoods, infrastruc- nese Academy of Sciences, August, 2006).16 Flows in ture, and productivity), as illustrated in Box 4.2. rivers fed by glaciers could be expected to increase in However, the complex interaction of precipitation the short term as melting accelerates (e.g., the addi- and temperature changes could actually result in less tional runoff from Chinese glaciers today is estimated runoff to streams in several regions of EAP, even to equal the Yellow River flow), also increasing the where precipitation is expected to increase. This could possibility of glacial lake outburst floods (or GLOFs). cause increased water stress, prolonged droughts, and However, after peaking at the beginning of this cen- increase in water conflict situations in the absence of tury, the flows are expected to drop precipitously as effective and flexible trans-boundary and multi-sectoral glaciers are largely depleted. This will be an impor- management mechanisms to respond to dynamic tant issue in areas that are fed by glaciers, such as the changes in water supplies. Hydropower production Yangtze basin (Box 4.4). could drop as a result of the reduction in river flows in Seawater intrusion. Sea level rise--in combination the long term. Water supplies for drinking, agricul- with increasing coastal storms, inland hydrologic ture, and industry could also be threatened by reduced changes, pollution, and land subsidence (caused by river flows and reduced groundwater recharge. For over-extraction of groundwater such as in many Chi- example, the complex nature of the sectoral and spa- nese delta regions)--could severely impact the water tial impacts of climate change on water security in the security of coastal areas. This could be manifested as Mekong Basin is illustrated in Box 4.3. seawater inundation of productive land areas, sea- Glacial melt. Glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau are water intrusion into coastal aquifers, and resulting smaller and less stable than those of other regions and water scarcity in these coastal areas. In small islands, are particularly susceptible to climate change, having there is a special threat from these changes to the small freshwater lenses that are vital to island communities. Box 4.2 Climate Change Impacts on Water Scarcity in China The average surface air temperature in China has increased by between 0.5 and 0.8°C over the 20th century, with more increases marked in North China and the Tibetan Plateau compared to south- ern regions. Temperature rise will lead to north- ward movement of China's temperate zones as well as an extension of the arid regions. Overall water scarcity is a critical problem in China, with existing water shortages, particularly in the north (exacer- bated by economic and population growth). Cli- mate change is expected to increase water scarcity in northern provinces such as Ningxia, Gansu, Impacts on Agriculture Shanxi, and Jilin. An increase in average rainfall in Agricultural productivity is likely to suffer severe losses southern provinces such as Fujian, Zhejiang, and due to high temperatures, drought, flooding, coastal inun- Jiangxi is anticipated over the next 50 to 100 years dation, soil degradation, and associated factors. Changes leading to more instances of flooding. From 1988 in agricultural output will vary significantly across the to 2004, China experienced economic losses from region, and will be closely linked to the availability of drought and flood equating to 1.2 percent and water for irrigation. Pest populations and crop pathogens 0.8 percent of GDP respectively. are also expected to increase, with negative impacts on Source: Stern Review--Part II: The Impacts of Climate Change on Growth and Development. 16. http://www.itpcas.ac.cn 22 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Box 4.3 Water Security in the Mekong River Basin The Mekong River Basin encompasses an area of higher, particularly in the southern and central approximately 795,000 square kilometers and is provinces of Lao PDR. In September, these areas home to about 60 million people from over 100 will experience a dramatic increase in rainfall, different ethnic groups. The Mekong is the longest from 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) per month river in South East Asia, flowing for 2,161 kilometers to 26 bcm per month. The overall rainfall on the in China through Qinghai, Tibet, and Yunnan Korat Plateau will increase from 124 to 137 bcm provinces, before traveling an additional 2,719 kilo- per year. With increasing urbanization and con- meters through Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, struction of human settlements, the natural Cambodia, and Vietnam, and finally entering the hydrological storage sinks of the Mekong (such South China Sea. Agriculture, fisheries and forestry as backwater swamps) are threatened. Reverse employ 85 percent of the basin population. The basin flow from the main stream, along with addi- produces enough rice to feed 300 million people tional rainfall, will increase the threat of flooding annually, including from 12,500 irrigation schemes. in the wet season (Snidvonds et al., 2003). It is estimated that there are over 1300 species of fish · Decreased water supply. A significant reduc- in the Mekong River, providing livelihoods and food tion is expected in the supply of water in the upper to basin residents. Over 1.5 million tons of fish are Mekong (Yunnan) region. In the Lancang region annually consumed in the basin. The basin also has in China, rainfall during the dry-season months significant hydropower potential and provides inland (September to April) will be generally the same but navigation (with about 25 major ports distributed will be significantly lower over the wet season (May along the Lower Mekong). to August). Annual rainfall will be reduced from Some models have predicted that the implica- 109 bcm per year to 87 bcm per year, or about a tions of climate change for this basin may include: 20 percent reduction (Snidvonds et al., 2003). Water shortages and deteriorating water quality associated with the longer dry season and reduced · Increased temperatures. The daily maximum flows are also expected. Changes in flows and sea- daytime temperature is expected to be higher by 1° to 3° C, especially in January to May. Effects in sonality could also have adverse impacts on sensi- tive and economically productive wetlands such as the eastern highland part of the Mekong are esti- the Tônlé Sap in Cambodia. mated to be the most pronounced (Snidvonds et al., 2003). A 2­3° C rise in ambient temperature can · Sea level rise. Sea level rise and coastal intrusion could have substantial impacts on delta area pro- increase evaporation and transpiration losses in ductivity and sustainability. Coastal cities such as the Mekong system by 10­15 per cent (World Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam could be impacted Wildlife Fund, 2005). significantly. · Increased floods. Greater flow variability and · Impact on productive systems. Changes in cli- increased flooding is expected generally through mate will have significant effects on agriculture a combination of climate variability and land and food production in many parts of the basin, use changes. The Korat Plateau (which lies in particularly on low-income populations that depend Northeast Thailand and adjacent parts of Lao on isolated agricultural systems--due to a com- PDR) and the southern lowland areas (which bination of frequent floods, droughts, cyclones, form much of the northern half of Cambodia and sea-level rise (Hoah et al., 2003). It could and extend into small portions of southern Lao also negatively affect the potential for hydro- PDR and eastern Thailand) will generally expe- power production. rience a shorter rainy season and a longer dry season (by approximately 2 months). However, Sources: Hoah et al., 2003; Snidvonds et al., 2003; World the total rainfall over the year will be slightly Wildlife Fund, 2005. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 23 Box 4.4 Water Security in the Yangtze River Basin The Yangtze River is 6,300 kilometers long. Its basin melt in the snow-covered regions that feed the covers nearly 2 million square kilometers, one-fifth upper Yangtze. This glacial melt is bringing short- of China's total land area, from mountainous inland term increases in water flow, but over time the regions to low-lying coastal areas. The basin is also flow will diminish, decreasing water supplies. As home to more than 500 million people, nearly half temperatures rise, more evaporation will take of China's total population, making it one of the place. Precipitation impacts are uncertain. most densely populated river basins on Earth. It pro- · Downstream, the Yangtze River Delta is also at duces more than 40 percent of China's GDP, and high risk from the effects of climate change. A accounts for over 40 percent of the country's total 40 centimeter rise in sea level by 2050 would have investment in fixed assets. serious effects on infrastructure in urban areas such The Yangtze originates on the Qinghai-Tibet as Shanghai, as well as on fertile agricultural lands, Plateau in the Sanjiangyuan region of Western China. coastal aquifers, and tidal flats. In addition, there These highland areas provide approximately one- would be losses to wetland habitats and increased fourth of the water in the Yangtze; the rest is added pollution due to flow changes, as well as more vul- from rainfall and tributaries downstream. The Yangtze nerability to coastal storms requiring additional basin could experience impacts in both upstream investment and construction of man-made barriers. and delta areas. The El Niño event in 1997/98 brought excessive rains to the basin, resulting in the worst flooding in half a century. This and other floods have been exac- erbated by intensified human activities, such as factory and road construction. With less land area to absorb rainfall, storm water runoff into the Yangtze has increased and contributed to flooding. The problem is not isolated to urban areas. Livestock husbandry is a major source of income in the upland regions. Grasslands are supporting far more animals than they can sustain, resulting in grassland degradation and further devastation of the ecosystem's water-trapping capabilities. Since the 1997/98 floods, the central gov- ernment and water resources agencies have begun to address water supply issues upstream that could serve · Upstream the basin areas could face issues of as examples for future adaptation measures. However, changing hydrology, glacier melt, and degradation additional resources will be needed to adapt the entire of grasslands. The average temperature in San- basin to the effects of climate change. jiangyuan has increased by 0.88° C in the past Source: Worldwatch Institute, 2006; Worldwatch Briefing, 50 years, causing glacial retreat and permafrost 1998; Ye and Glantz, 1998; Yafeng et al., 2000. productivity in the sector. Impacts on trade and thus on some regions, under the projected scenarios, rice pro- economic growth overall could be substantial. duction in Asia could decline by 4 percent by 2100. Studies have also indicated that a 2°C increase in mean Reduced agricultural production in the Southern air temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yields by regions. Substantial decreases in cereal production are 5 to 12 percent in China. Various studies have also expected as a consequence of climate change in Asia by suggested that substantial losses are likely in rain-fed 2100. Net cereal production is projected to decline by wheat in South and South East Asia. at least 4 to 10 percent under the most conservative cli- Increased agricultural production in Northern mate change projections (IPCC, 2001b). With the areas. In contrast to the above, in other areas, cereal combination of thermal stress and water scarcity in production may increase due to additional precipita- 24 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 tion. Climate change can affect not only crop land diversify or shift to crops that require less water. How- productivity, but also the land area of production. ever, most farmers are constrained by limited access to Most of the arable land that is suitable for cultivation technology and inputs. This reinforces the importance in Asia is already in use (IPCC, 2001b). There has of involving government agriculture departments in reportedly been a decline in potentially good agri- designing coping mechanisms. cultural land in East Asia (including Japan), and sub- Increase of pest populations and crop patho- stantial increases in suitable areas and production gens. Higher temperatures and longer growing sea- potentials in currently cultivated land in Central Asia sons would result in an increase in pest populations (Fischer et al., 2002). With increased temperatures, a in temperate regions of Asia. Warmer winter tem- northward shift of agricultural zones is likely, poten- peratures would reduce winter kill of insects, leading tially expanding the agricultural frontier. For exam- to an increase in insect populations. Overall increases ple, the dry steppe in the eastern part of Mongolia in temperature may influence crop pathogens by would push the forest steppe to the north, resulting speeding up pathogen growth rates, which increase in shrinking of the high mountainous and forest reproductive generations per crop cycle. steppe zones and expansion of the steppe and desert Impacts on trade. The projected decline in potential steppe. In northern China, studies suggest that the tri- yield and total production of rice in some Asian coun- planting boundary will shift by 6­10 kilometers per tries caused by climate change could have a significant year (300 to 500 km by 2050)--from the Changjiang effect on trade in agricultural commodities, hence on River Valley to the Yellow River Basin. Double- economic growth and stability (Matthews et al., 1995). planting regions would move toward the existing single-planting areas, while single-planting areas will Impacts on Fisheries shrink by 23 percent (Wang, 2002). Increased demand for irrigation. How the effects of Climate change is also expected to have significant climate change on agricultural output and productiv- impacts on fisheries. Climatic factors affect the elements ity vary across different regions is closely related to that influence the number and distribution of marine fish changes in water availability. Demand for irrigation species in two ways: biotic (food availability, breeding for agriculture in arid and semi-arid zones in East Asia habits, and the presence and species composition of com- is estimated to increase by 10 percent for every 1° C petitors and predators) and abiotic (water temperature, increase in temperature (Box 4.5). Excess demand for salinity, acidification, nutrients, strength of upwelling, irrigation water would severely limit the potential for mixing layer thickness, sea level, wind speed and direction, growing two or more crops per year (the current ocean currents). The impact on Asian fisheries depends on practice in the more fertile areas of EAP). One of the how climate change affects both sets of factors, as noted often-suggested coping mechanisms is for farmers to below, with cascading impacts on livelihoods and employ- ment in the sector (IPCC, 2001b). Marine fisheries. According to recent studies, pro- Box 4.5 Meeting Irrigation Needs jected changes in ocean currents will affect marine in China fisheries negatively, suggesting a reduction of primary production in tropical oceans because of changes in the On average, in China, productivity of irrigated land ocean circulation in a warmer atmosphere. The tuna is expected to decrease between 1.5 to 7 percent, catch of East Asia is nearly one-fourth of the world's with rain-fed land productivity dipping by between total. A modelling study showed significant large-scale 1.1 to 12.6 percent from 2020 to 2080 under var- declines of skipjack tuna habitat in the equatorial ious scenarios. Water resources for irrigation from Pacific under projected warming (Loukos et al., 2003). available surface and groundwater sources in north- Principal marine fishery species, like ribbon fish and ern China will meet only 70 percent of the water yellow croakers in China, have zoned distribution and requirement for agricultural production. Overall, a seasonal feeding and spawning migration patterns. net decrease in agriculture production is anticipated Migration routes and patterns--and hence the regional with seven provinces in the north and northwest catch--may be greatly affected by climate change. An of China particularly vulnerable (accounting for increased frequency of El Niño events associated with one fourth of total arable land and 14 percent of a warmer atmosphere could lead to measurable declines China's total agricultural output by value). in fish abundance in coastal waters of South East Asia, although moderate warming may actually improve the ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 25 conditions for some fish, such as cod and herring, by in higher costs to airlines servicing routes between the increasing productivity of their prey and providing main markets and small island states (Wall, 1996). more extensive habitats. Increased sea surface temper- ature also has the potential to increase the intensity and Reduced Energy Security frequency of disease outbreaks. Inland fisheries. Saline water fronts may penetrate Energy demand in EAP is related to economic and indus- further inland, which could increase the habitat of trial activity and population growth. At present, most of brackish-water fisheries. In addition, fisheries in higher that energy is provided by burning fossil fuels, which elevations are likely to be affected by lower availability release large amounts of GHGs. Damage costs due to fos- of oxygen due to a rise in surface air temperatures. In sil fuel CO2 emissions in the EAP region are estimated to the plains, the timing and amount of precipitation be 1.2 percent of regional GNI, equivalent to $38 billion may affect the migration from rivers to floodplains for (World Bank, 2006b). It is expected that the region's spawning, dispersal, and growth (FAO, 2003). economies will continue to see increased energy demand from industrialization, urbanization, and increased use of motor vehicles. They will also need more energy to address climate change impacts. Security of supply is an issue for all countries, and eventually moving to a low-carbon economy is an emerg- ing issue for the fastest-growing, industrializing coun- tries, notably China and Vietnam. Some countries are proactively taking steps to diversify their energy sources. EAP has great potential for investing in hydropower and renewable energy and changing its dependence on fuel sources that intensively emit GHGs. In 2003, China's hydropower generation was 23 percent of the country's economically exploitable potential. The corresponding numbers for Indonesia and Vietnam were 25 percent and 24 percent, respectively. However, glacial melt in the Himalayas and uncertain rainfall downstream may cur- Disruption of Tourism tail the potential for hydropower in the long term. Flood- Tourism is a growing source of revenue for many coun- ing from storms and glacial melt is expected to increase tries in the EAP region. Thailand's natural attractions, sedimentation, adversely affecting drainage and efficiency for instance, have pulled in tourists since the 1960s, of hydropower projects. Moreover, hydropower projects and other countries such as Cambodia have recently reduce sediment discharge to river deltas downstream, entered the sector. In fact, Thailand's tourism sur- making them more susceptible to erosion and the effects passed rice as the largest source of foreign exchange in of sea level rise.17 Thus some of the plans to increase 1983, and is estimated to generate more than $9 bil- energy security could be affected by climate change. lion in income, representing about 7 per cent of GDP in 2001 (Raksakulthai, 2003). Climate change will Negative Impacts on GDP have both direct and indirect effects on the tourism industry. As noted above, sea level rise will result in loss The likelihood of damage to infrastructure and loss of of beaches, degradation of coastal ecosystems, saline human life because of unexpected extreme events will rise. intrusion, and damage to critical infrastructure. The A rise in sea level would impact the region's GDP gener- resulting economic impacts on tourism could be high. ally; Vietnam and China would be affected the most, with In addition, a high proportion of tourism in small- impacts also being felt in Indonesia, Thailand and Cam- island states is motivated by the desire of visitors from bodia (Dasgupta et al., 2007). In the absence of adapta- colder climates to seek warmer destinations. These states tion, a high island such as Viti Levu could experience are becoming increasingly concerned that projected average annual economic losses equivalent to 2 percent of milder winters in the tourist market countries would reduce the appeal of these islands as tourist destinations 17. Non-hydropower renewables, such as solar and wind, present (Martin and Bruce, 1999). Tourism could be further additional alternatives to fossil fuels, especially in isolated regions harmed by increased airline fares if GHG mitigation in EAP. In 2002, these sources accounted for 1.3 percent of EAP's measures (e.g., levies and emission charges) were to result generated electricity (World Bank, 2005b).[0] Figure 4.1 26 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Fiji's GDP. A low group of islands such as the Tarawa It is generally more cost-effective to protect coastal Atoll in Kiribati could face average annual damages of assets and infrastructure ahead of a severe weather event roughly 16 percent of its GDP by 2050. than to repair the damage after it occurs. For example, These costs could be considerably higher in years of the damage caused by cyclone Heta, which hit Samoa extreme weather events such as cyclones, droughts, and in 2004, translated into 9 percent of GDP, compared large storm surges. In years of strong storm surge, up to with 230 percent of cyclone Val in 1991. Although the 54 percent of South Tarawa could be inundated, with two cyclones are not directly comparable, the effects of capital losses of up to $430 million (World Bank, 2000). cyclone Heta would have been far worse without an An idea of the aggregate economic impacts of extreme investment in risk management of natural hazards weather events resulting from changes in regional cli- undertaken during the 1990s (World Bank 2004). mate can be drawn from estimates of the damages Shoreline protection systems designed to cyclone stan- caused by the 1997­98 El Niño in various countries in dards performed well, with relatively minor damage, EAP, as summarized in Box 4.6. compared to sub-standard coastal protection in adja- cent areas (Bettencourt et al., 2006). Box 4.6 Economic Impacts of the El Niño Social Impacts Events in EAP: A Preview of What Could Lie Ahead? The dense rural and urban populations of EAP are at par- ticular risk from climate change. The impacts described above on coastal, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and The largest El Niño event in the last century associated impacts on water security, agriculture, fish- occurred in 1997­98. Malaysia and Indonesia were eries, tourism and other dimensions of economic activ- hit by severe droughts, which exacerbated forest ity, depending on their intensity and scope, may lead to fires over 9.7 million hectares, and the resulting serious social stress. smog caused a major public health crisis spreading to neighboring countries--Singapore, the Philip- pines, and southern Thailand. In Indonesia, Displacement and Livelihood Loss such fires affected economic growth with estimated Sea level rise is a significant threat to populations resid- losses of $10 billion. The resulting air pollution ing in populated coastal areas and deltas, as well as on caused 500 deaths and nearly 3 million lost work islands. In the absence of coastal protection measures days, costing more than $17 million in 1999 [(ADB (e.g., sea walls), this threat may involve large-scale dis- and National Planning Development Agency of placement of populations (including those from many Indonesia (BAPPENAS)]. There were also impacts densely populated cities) away from coastal areas toward in neighboring countries--Malaysia and Singapore the interior, in a planned or unplanned retreat depend- suffered damages worth about $0.5 billion from the ing on local preparedness. This is especially problematic Indonesian fires. On the other side of the Pacific, for small island countries, where virtually the whole ter- Ecuador and Peru suffered more than 10 times the ritory may be at risk of being engulfed by rising oceans. usual rainfall, causing several floods. Coral bleach- In addition, gradual progress of adverse climate condi- ing, a direct impact of increased sea temperature tions (e.g., expansion of drylands, loss of water security, above a threshold (about 28°C), was particularly etc.) could displace many others over time. The increase pronounced during 1997­98, because a very strong of shorter-term phenomena (e.g., floods, droughts, El Niño occurred that year. Recently, the El Niño storms) could also increase the displacement of popula- cycle has been associated with disease outbreaks tions due to loss of assets, as well as cause the separation such as malaria, dengue, and Rift Valley Fever of families, as members seek work elsewhere, creating (WHO, 2000). The bulk of the financial loss came national and international environmental refugees. from adverse health impacts. Tourism is another Coping with these stresses would require communities important consideration. It can be significantly to develop a shared vision of the nature of the enhanced affected, as was the case with the 1997 fires. The displacement threats they face, consensus on the options loss from reduced tourist visits was estimated at they have, and the development of agreed long-term $111 million (Glover and Jessup, 1997). strategies to adapt to such threats. Source: Asian Development Bank 1999; WHO, 2000; and In addition to the losses from displacement, tradi- Glover and Jessup, 1997. tional livelihoods that have always been subject to some of the vagaries of nature (e.g., in agriculture, forestry, ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 27 hunting, and fisheries) will be even more vulnerable. health effects; water- and food-borne diseases; vector- These impacts will be spatially heterogeneous, with some borne and rodent-borne diseases; effects of food and countries or regions within countries being better off water shortages, and mental trauma, infections, nutri- than others. As noted, some livelihoods may actually tional, psychological, and other factors that occur improve (e.g., in areas that receive more rainfall for agri- in impacted or displaced populations in the wake of culture) in parts of the region. On the other hand, climate-induced economic dislocation, environmental enhanced probability of extreme natural disasters may decline, and conflict situations. cause frequent dips in local economies and poverty alle- In 2000, climate change was estimated to be respon- viation efforts. In addition, across the region, the demand sible for approximately 2.4 percent of worldwide diar- for food will continue to grow with economic growth, rhea, 6 percent of malaria in some middle-income placing stress on agricultural and fishery systems. When countries, and 7 percent of dengue fever in some indus- climate change impacts are superimposed on current trialized countries. In total, the attributable mortality threats to the sustainability of agricultural systems, such was 154,000 (0.3 percent) deaths and the attributable as hydrologic extremes (droughts and floods), overfish- burden was 5.5 million (0.4 percent) disability adjusted ing, and destruction of mangroves, the impacts are likely life years (DALYs). South East Asia has been dispro- to be magnified. The need to cope with such challenges portionately impacted answering for 47 percent of the makes it imperative for countries to take measures to burden (WHO, 2002). become resilient to climate change. Human communities in EAP are already at risk from the health implications of degraded ecosystems. Cholera and other waterborne diseases are on the rise in coastal Human Health Impacts countries and may be related to declining water quality, The WHO (2003) identifies seven broad categories of climate, and algal blooms. There is also an increase in the health impacts linked to a change in climatic condi- incidence of diseases of marine organisms and the emer- tions: temperature-related illness and death; extreme gence of new pathogens, some of which are harmful to weather-induced health effects; air pollution-related humans, such as ciguatera, which causes seafood poi- soning (UNEP, 2006). Kiribati already has one of the highest rates of ciguatera poisoning in the Pacific. The rise in temperatures is expected to increase the inci- dence of ciguatera poisoning from 35­70 per 1,000 peo- ple to about 160­430 per thousand in 2050 (World Bank, 2000). Higher temperatures will be more pronounced in large cities because of the "urban heat island effect" (con- crete and asphalt absorb more heat than natural settings). The direct health impact of high temperatures on human health is heat stroke morbidity and mortality, especially for older age groups (above 65), an effect which has been clearly measured for cities such as Nanjing and Tokyo. Severe summer heat waves in the future are likely to increase the risk of mortality in older age groups and urban poor populations in temperate and tropical Asia. A reduction in mortality by warming of winter tempera- tures may compensate for some of the losses from heat stroke during the summer months (IPCC, 2001b). Cumulative Impacts Climate change impacts will not occur in isolation. The concurrent impacts on different social, economic, and environmental dimensions will combine in often unforeseeable and sometimes counterintuitive ways. For example, it was noted earlier that even if precipitation is higher in certain areas, the increased temperature could result in much higher evaporation and transpiration, 28 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 leading to reduced runoff into streams and rivers and The level of development in a region strongly affects increased water stress. its overall social, economic, and environmental vulner- Many of these effects can further exacerbate existing ability, and determines its ability to adapt to climate problems. For example, there is a possibility of an change. More developed countries and more affluent increase in the number of "environmental refugees" dis- communities have the capacity to develop and imple- placed by climate variability and change, which could ment improved monitoring and preparedness systems, place greater stress on certain urban areas. But there are invest in adaptation infrastructure, maintain flexibility many combinations of impacts that may emerge, and in production systems, and mobilize financial support these should be anticipated for potential adaptation. to assist affected communities. On the other hand, the The inundation caused by sea-level rise may be exacer- poor often have a limited planning horizon, and have bated by delta land subsidence due to over-pumping of little insurance or access to safety nets against the loss coastal aquifers; in this case, policy and management of income from any climate-related changes. The poor failures could have contributed to the problem. It is often cultivate crops on marginal lands that are the inevitable that a combination of factors will cause each most vulnerable to climatic variations. In EAP these impact described above, and that each region will face a impacts are further exacerbated by overpopulation, combination of impacts to which it will have to adapt. resource degradation, and social conflicts. CHAPTER 5 WHAT EAP CAN DO TO ADAPT Approaches to Adaptation The most recent evidence produced by the IPCC con- gency preparedness, relocation of vulnerable human firms that it is not possible to avoid climate change that settlements; and will be taking place in the next two or three decades, since financial safety nets to help the more vulnerable sec- such change is the result of GHG accumulation that has tions of society who are the least likely to be able to occurred in the past.18 Adaptation to climate change is afford protection. therefore essential to protect communities, ecosystems and economies and to help them to cope with its most These are critical building blocks that must be tackled extreme manifestations. Adaptation to climate change is through comprehensive, coordinated approaches, which a multi-dimensional process, integrating components need to be taken at the national, sectoral and local lev- such as awareness raising, priority setting, sound planning, els. Adaptation to climate change will need to be a core capacity building, research and technology development component of development planning, and will require and transfer, and resource mobilization. Addressing cli- initiatives that are often referred to as "mainstreaming" mate risks and taking adaptive action will require both or "climate proofing" development (Hay et al., 2004). individual and collective action, involving firms, com- It is widely accepted that adaptation does not have munities and government agencies. a "magic bullet" response, that it will require a range of As highlighted in the Stern Review, development public and private sector actions, and combined efforts itself is a key to adaptation in developing countries. Pro- to both improve coping capacity and promote short- moting growth and diversification of economic activity, and long-term sustainability. Although there is still investing in health and education, enhancing resilience much debate over the most appropriate approaches to disasters and improving disaster management, and for developing and implementing adaptation strategies, promoting social safety nets for the poor are good devel- there are also many actions that the EAP region can take opment practice and should contribute to reducing vul- immediately to adapt to climate change. Many of these nerability to climate change. actions fall into the "no regrets" category--that is, In addition, it is important that governments pro- actions that make sense under current conditions of cli- vide a clear policy framework to guide adaptation in the mate variability and that would have even greater value following key areas: in anticipation of future climate change. This chapter explores opportunities for adaptation through: (i) cross- high quality climate change information, including cutting responses; and (ii) area-specific and ecosystem- improved regional climate predictions, particularly level intervention. for rainfall and storm patterns; land-use planning and performance standards to encourage private and public investments in build- Cross-Cutting Responses ings, capital and infrastructure that are resilient to These responses include poverty reduction and economic the effects of climate change, as well as protection of reforms, improving the information base, strengthening vulnerable utilities and facilities; planning and coordination, promoting participation and long-term climate sensitive policies such as natural consultation, improving disaster preparedness, invest- resource and coastal protection, disaster and emer- ing in technology development and dissemination, and establishing effective financial safety nets and insurance 18. IPCC, 2007. systems. 29 30 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Poverty Reduction and Economic Reforms produced and disseminated in a timely manner, is essential for decision makers, who need to plan ahead to While climate change is a threat to economic growth and avoid or reduce the impacts of climate-related events and poverty reduction (Chapter 4) as well as the achievement to respond promptly to crises. Public awareness raising, of the Millennium Development Goals, many measures increasing the understanding of potential climate risks, important to achieving wider development goals--such as and targeting information to communities that are at strengthening governance, public finance, and insti- greater risk are also important. Vulnerability mapping tutional structures--are also essential steps in reducing tools can help communities and governments build con- vulnerability to climate risks (Sperling, 2004). All gov- sensus on ways to minimize public and private asset risks, ernment programs that foster poverty reduction in the by better targeting policies, investments, and insurance. region, in targeted and potentially cost-effective ways, also For coastal cities, the vulnerability to storm surges, king contribute to adaptation by preparing the poor to cope tides, and cyclones should be assessed through hazard with adversity. Pro-poor institutions are a prominent mapping, vulnerability assessments and assets-at-risk component of development plans in several countries in the region. In China, for example, the new Five-Year-Plan inventories, as the basis for the development of build- reflects a significant shift in development priorities toward ing consensus around risk management strategies and agriculture in the rural areas, where the majority of the climate-sensitive investments undertaken at the local poor still live. Similarly, in Vietnam, the five-year plan- level. For rural areas, assessments should focus on food ning process is accompanied by efforts to make resource and water shortage risks and on the dissemination of cli- allocation more pro-poor. In Indonesia, the government mate-resilient crops and agricultural inputs, and the use has moved decisively toward abolishing fuel subsidies, a of climate-adjusted technology and practices. These will measure which can also be expected to contribute to a need to be a critical part of the approach to adaptation, reduction of GHG emissions. Replacing this traditional requiring an early start and, in most cases, action at the but very costly and regressive approach to providing a national level (World Bank 2000). measure of social protection for the poor, the government is moving toward an approach of targeted cash transfers to Strengthening Planning and Coordination help shield the poor from the impact of higher fuel prices (World Bank et al., 2004). Sectoral reforms designed to Given the complexity of climate change impacts, adapta- accelerate economic growth and alleviate poverty can also tion will require the adoption of comprehensive planning help build capacity to cope effectively with climate-related processes involving a broad array of institutions. Central, uncertainty, especially if they are properly tailored. regional, and local government institutions as well as sec- Developing national strategies that promote reduc- toral agencies will need to work together to address adap- tion of GHG emissions will be increasingly important tation. Coordination will be essential, especially in the in some EAP countries. In the power sector measures case of coastal areas and in flood prone regions. In some include energy demand management and conservation countries, such as the Philippines, initiatives that are aimed particularly at temperature-driven peak demand, already in place also constitute partial building blocks of interval pricing, energy standards for household air a comprehensive adaptation strategy (Box 5.1). conditioners and industrial boilers, as well as moving to low-carbon energy supply through increased use of Promoting Participation and Consultation renewables, improved carbon technology, and the use of carbon capture and storage. Measures will also be needed Based on vulnerability assessments and assets-at-risk in the transport, industrial and agricultural sectors. An inventories, the public sector can develop alternative important though insufficiently acknowledged measure, courses of actions. The range of public sector interven- which is especially relevant in EAP, is the avoidance of tions to reduce climate risks can comprise measures such deforestation. In all these areas, climate change mitiga- as changing building regulations, imposing land-use tion and adaptation will need to be mainstreamed into restrictions, undertaking investments to protect public sectoral development plans and programs. and private assets in areas at risk, upgrading infrastruc- ture design standards to withstand climate impacts, improving the capacity of the public health sector to Improving the Information Base respond to changes in the burden of climate-sensitive dis- Good quality climate information, such as improved eases, and more. These imply different implementation weather forecasts and longer-term regional climate pro- time frames and budgets, as well as costs and benefits for jections, are critical tools for climate risk management different stakeholder groups, which, added to the uncer- in both urban and rural settings. Such information, if tainties involved, make public discussion of the desir- ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 31 Box 5.1 Integrated Coastal Zone Management in the Philippines Executive Order (EO) No. 533, adopted in June, 2006, stresses the role of integrated coastal management (ICM) in promoting sustainable development of the country's coastal and marine environment and resources in order to achieve food security, sustainable livelihoods, poverty alle- viation, and reduction of vulnerability to natural hazards, while preserving ecological integrity. The ICM approach is crucial in addressing linkages among watersheds, estuaries, wetlands, message to a general audience. In addition, a well- and coastal seas. EO 533 specifically mandates planned communication strategy with a simple and the Department of Environment and Natural timely message to inform a large stakeholder group must Resources (DENR) to develop in one year a be in place taking into account the communication national ICM program, in consultation with infrastructure available in different locations. other concerned agencies, sectors, and stakehold- ers. The national ICM program will identify rele- vant principles, strategies, and action plans after Box 5.2 Community Participation balancing national development priorities with in Cambodia local concerns. It will then define national ICM targets, and develop a national ICM coordinating mechanism. It is expected to provide direction, With support from the Australian Agency for support, and guidance to local government units International Development (AusAID), CARE's and stakeholders in the development and imple- Disaster Preparedness Action Planning Project mentation of their local ICM programs (Partner- (DPAP) was implemented in 115 villages in four ships in Environmental Management for the Seas districts of Cambodia (Baphom, Kampong Tra- of East Asia--PEMSEA, 2006). This approach, bek, Peam Chore, and Preah Sdach) during if implemented effectively, could be a solid basis 2001­03 in response to the 2000 floods. DPAP for the incorporation of climate-related issues in focused on (i) mitigation action planning (MAP), coastal development programs in the Philippines. which involved local communities developing and implementing their own mitigation plans Source: PEMSEA, 2006. using small grants; (ii) disaster preparedness action planning (PAP), based on a participatory analysis of vulnerability and capability, also implemented using small grants; and (iii) disaster management ability of different courses of action especially important through savings (based on an earlier CARE pilot to establish support and ownership. An example of such for mobilizing savings to help minimize the worst a participatory planning process is given in Box 5.2. effects of disasters). In addition, a disaster pre- paredness and mitigation project--"Living Above Improving Disaster Preparedness the Floods" (DPM--LAF) has been developed for Prey Veng, Cambodia. Funded by AusAID and Disaster preparedness entails activities and measures that Norway, and implemented by CARE in 2004­06, are planned in advance to ensure effective response to the DPM-LAF shifts the focus to household-level effects of hazards, including timely early warnings and interventions. It also incorporates the humani- the temporary evacuation of people and property from tarian accountability principles being introduced threatened locations. Disaster preparedness activities by prominent NGOs, including the Cambodian include simulations, demonstrations, and drills, as well Red Cross, CARE, Concern, Lutheran World as training and education in specific skills (Box 5.3). Federation, Oxfam GB, and World Vision. Early warning systems must be integrated into dis- aster planning to link scientific and technical indicators Source: ADB 2005. to authorities who can interpret and communicate the 32 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Box 5.3 Awareness Raising in Box 5.4 Preparing for Extreme Weather Papua New Guinea Events in Iloilo, Philippines In Papua New Guinea, the National Disaster Many provinces in the Philippines already have Management Act of 1984 provided for the estab- well-developed institutional mechanisms for lishment of a National Disaster Management responding to floods and droughts. For example, Office to develop policies and plans, in collabora- in Iloilo, the Provincial Disaster Coordinating tion with line agencies, for natural disaster risk Council, under the Office of the Governor, serves management preparedness and response. Based as the overall coordinating body. The Philippine on recent experience, awareness programs have Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Ser- been developed to educate people on the risks of vices Administration (PAGASA) provides fore- natural disasters and how to avoid them, or be casts to the Council, which then coordinates with prepared to manage situations after disasters. The a range of provincial and national-level agencies lessons learned from various natural disasters have to develop mitigation plans. Local governments enhanced the understanding of the impact of set aside 5 percent of estimated local government these natural disasters. These recent experiences revenues for a Calamity Fund. State level plans have helped the institutions and line agencies to involve both preparedness and response activities improve surveillance and develop the capacity to to reduce impacts. For example, in some states manage natural and man-made disasters. such as Iloilo, it is now possible to access the Calamity Fund before a disaster, if an El Niño/La Source: World Bank, 2003. Niña forecast exists. Mayors and the Provincial Agriculture Office disseminate weather forecasts and the agriculture office works closely with farm- Governments must take responsibility for guiding ers' associations to plan for switching to drought- the preparedness activities. Political will, leadership, resistant varieties and the promotion of other and good governance, a binding legal framework, and livelihood activities. Other actions incorporate policies are essential in the process of effective disaster both preparation and response measures such as preparedness planning and the development and imple- local irrigation associations that provide addi- mentation of early warning systems. (Box 5.4) tional clearing of canals when typhoons or heavy rains are expected. Technology Development and Dissemination Source: Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. While the private sector is the major driver of innovation and transfer of technology worldwide, governments can play a major role in facilitating international collabora- Providing Financial Safety Nets tion (Stern, 2006). The development and diffusion of and Insurance Systems improved crop varieties, efficient irrigation systems and cultivation methods will improve agricultural and rural Financial safety nets may be required for the poorest in productivity. In the same vein, improvements to design society, who are likely to be the most vulnerable to and construction techniques will improve the resilience impacts of climate change and the least likely to afford of infrastructure and urban development overall. How- protection. Extending the reach of insurance instruments ever, most of these costs will be incurred locally, mostly to provide poor people with the risk-spreading mecha- by the private sector. In this respect, international co- nisms similar to those available in developed countries operation to accelerate the development and spread of is an innovative form of adaptation which needs to be low-carbon technologies will have global benefits in further explored. Micro-insurance can be very effective achieving overall emission and stabilization objectives at to address the need for post-disaster housing reconstruc- lower costs. This is particularly relevant for sectors where tion. Pilots on insurance instruments for agricultural the market is slower to react to needs (such as pooling losses are being developed in several countries with risks and rewards on research and development for break- World Bank assistance. This includes the parametric through technologies), or where market instruments are (also called indexed) weather insurance pilot in Thailand, linked to verification protocols and high volumes (such where flood data is collated through remote sensing and as for carbon emission reductions). a mechanism is being developed to compensate for rice ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 33 yield loss due to floods. In Mongolia, the Bank has pio- Area-Specific and Ecosystem-Level neered an innovative and multi-layered risk manage- Interventions ment system to reduce the impact of livestock losses during extremely cold winters. Adaptation and policy responses, including the cross- Worldwide, overall losses due to natural disasters cutting approaches and tools discussed above, will be have increased steadily over the last century. In the last applied in the context of specific areas and ecosystems. decade, losses reached approximately $580 billion, Situations of special relevance include coastal cities, seven times larger than observed in the 1960s. Conse- major river basins, agricultural areas, forests and dry- quently, insured losses also reached unprecedented lands, marine ecosystems, and small islands. dimensions--$180 billion in the last decade. This has led some re-insurance companies to revisit and adapt Coastal Cities their business models to emerging trends, as illustrated in Box 5.5. The International Finance Corporation's With an estimated 46 million people per year at risk of Global Index Reinsurance Facility, which was estab- flooding from storm surges, (IPCC, 1996), coastal cities lished to provide coverage for natural disasters, and the in EAP potentially face severe sea-level rise problems as a consequence of subsidence induced by tectonic and Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility led by anthropogenic changes (such as pressures on ground- the World Bank to respond to the devastation caused by water sources in rapidly developing areas). They are also natural hazards in the Caribbean in 2004, are recent subject to the complex inter-related problems associated examples of similar initiatives which have allowed the with climate extremes. use of risk-spreading mechanisms to partially defray the A heat wave can trigger a cascade of consequences costs of adaptation. that disrupt economic and social activities. For exam- ple, as temperatures rise, energy demands increase, as do the likelihood of electricity outages that reduce access to air conditioning and other services. As a result, indus- Box 5.5 Adaptation in the trial output declines and the incidence of heat stress and Re-Insurance Business other negative health impacts increases. The adaptation framework will require a compre- Some reinsurance firms, such as Munich Re and hensive awareness-raising and planning effort, compris- Swiss Re, now actively promote scientific research ing the preparation of vulnerability assessments; the to determine the impact of climate change. Swiss identification of regulatory, investment, institutional Re has linked their loss model to estimates of capacity building, and awareness-raising options; imple- the impact of climate change on European win- mentation timeframes, budgets, modes of delivery and ter storm damage, which forecasts indicate may financing, as noted above. Options for coastal cities increase by 16­68 percent over the period 1975­ should focus on key infrastructure sectors, such as water 2085 (Swiss Re, 2006). Both companies are adjust- supply, and on basic quality-of-life measures and indi- ing their product offerings as well as their manage- cators, with mechanisms to examine synergistic impacts ment practices. "Risk-adequate premiums" are (IPCC, 2001b). Major interventions to address coastal essential for sustainable operation of insurance in urban adaptation include the following: the medium and long term. The "cost of goods sold" is implied to increase, and appropriate Information systems. Building reliance on infor- pricing models are evolving (Munich Re, 2006; mation technology, such as geographic information Swiss Re, 2006). These firms recommend non- systems, to aid development and implementation traditional, alternative forms of risk transfer, of coastal management and disaster preparedness including consideration of mega-loss potential in strategies; climate change-related disasters (UNEP, 2002). Improved structures. Upgrading existing and build- ing new hard structures (e.g., dikes, levees, floodwalls, Munich Re (2006) introduced two new products: and barriers) and soft structures (e.g., beach nourish- risk-swap (e.g., exchange of risks between insur- ment, dune restoration, and wetland creation) to pre- ance companies, such as windstorms in Europe vent erosion and protect shorelines; against earthquakes in Japan) and bonds (e.g., Energy efficiency. Moving to low carbon, higher effi- transfer of risks to the capital market). ciency transport and energy systems, which generate Source: Munich Re, 2006; Swiss Re, 2006; UNEP, 2002. both global and local benefits (e.g, reduce air pollution and avoid heat pressure); 34 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Building standards. Introducing improved, climate- response to these changes, as in the case of coastal cities, sensitive standards for construction of residential, may require comprehensive approaches and many of the commercial and industrial facilities; same processes discussed above. It would, however, Planned development. In less-developed areas, intro- include a variety of measures suited to the specific con- ducing regulation establishing setbacks to control future dition in the upstream watershed, along the river, and in development. delta areas. These measures might include: Box 5.6 illustrates how the tourism industry in Thai- in upland areas, improving watershed management, land is taking steps to adjust to climate-related threats. flood management, drought protection, and dam safety measures; in delta areas, protecting against salt water intru- Major River Basins sion and groundwater contamination and depletion; The impacts of climate change on water regimes are of along the river, diversifying food production and special concern as noted in Chapter 3. Major river basins income generation options by moving to flexible irri- may be subject to complex changes in hydrology, as well gation and cropping systems, especially in the case of as floods, droughts and storms; pressures on groundwa- vulnerable groups (for example, by introducing live- ter, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion. The adaptation stock management, rain-fed agriculture, fisheries, depending on predicted water impacts); seasonal forecasting, including long-term climate Box 5.6 Tourism in Phuket, Thailand projections as an input into design specifications in multi-sector water resource planning and manage- ment; and Thailand's growing tourism industry is one of the disaster preparedness, through improved early warn- key economic sectors under threat due to impacts ing systems and response plans. from climate variability and severe weather (i.e. the southwest monsoon, storms, droughts and El China's Loess Plateau is an important example of the Niño). Phuket, Thailand's largest island and one efforts to develop sustainable watershed management of its primary tourist destinations, has recently programs (Box 5.7). This social, economic, and envi- experienced the impacts not only of the 2004 ronmental transformation of a region, based on a shared tsunami, but also of various climate-related events, vision with good planning, implementation, and mon- such as shortage in rainfall, the main source of tap itoring, illustrates how a transition from a relief to a water on the island. For example, during 2003, due development focus can be accomplished even in a short to less rainfall than usual, Bang Wat reservoir oper- timeframe. Focusing on improving sustainable devel- ated with as little as a 10-day supply. The tourism opment through actions that are compatible with pro- industry has developed numerous methods of cop- jected climate change is often the most effective strategy ing with climate risks. These methods range from for implementing adaptation for specific areas. closing down for the monsoon season and living off of approximately six months' income for the entire year, to developing attractions that are "cli- Agricultural Areas mate proof" (e.g., medical tourism, entertainment Food security and income generation for rural commu- parks, convention centers, and shopping malls). nities is a fundamental concern owing to the climatically- In addition, new reservoirs, pumping stations, sensitive nature of agriculture. Historically, agriculture and pipelines are being built to ensure the island's has evolved and adjusted to increasing population and to water supply over the next few decades. Other changing economic conditions, technology, and resource adopted measures include (i) implementing inte- availability. Climate change could have multiple impacts: grated coastal zone management in order to pro- in areas where growth is limited by frost, warming may mote coordination among agencies and between bring a longer growth season, allowing earlier planting the public and private sectors; and (ii) building and sometimes more crops per year; in subtropical to capacity to enhance the ability of people working tropical areas, the longer growing season will have less of in local businesses to anticipate and prepare for an impact, but may increase vulnerability to changes in the variety of risks that can affect their livelihoods. precipitation patterns, especially with respect to the onset Source: Raksakulthai, 2003. or reliability of monsoon seasons. Studies suggest that proactive adaptation and adjustment will be important ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 35 sification is a strategy for adaptation. but poor farm- Box 5.7 Improving Rural Livelihoods ers will need assistance in learning about and access- Through Sustainable Watershed ing more suitable options. Management in China's Loess Plateau New crop varieties. Genetic engineering and gene mapping may bring more climate-tolerant traits. The Loess Plateau covers about 640,000 square Water supply and irrigation systems. Generally kilometers (about 45 percent farmed) in the upper speaking, irrigated agriculture is less affected by cli- and mid reaches of the Yellow River basin (so mate change than dryland agriculture. However, land named after its high sediment load). The area has degradation and competition for water is expected to low rainfall (250­550 mm/yr), and population increase regardless of climate condition in the future, pressures, unsustainable farming practices, and requiring improvements in water management and natural conditions have caused severe soil erosion pricing of water. (one of the highest in the world), low agricultural Tillage. Minimum and reduced tillage technology, productivity, downstream sedimentation (1.6 bil- along with cover crops, can reduce moisture loss dur- lion tons/yr in the Yellow River), flooding, and ing the critical early growing season and reduce soil widespread poverty. Since 1994, the World Bank- erosion and nutrient loss overall. supported Loess Plateau Watershed Rehabilita- Improved short-term climate prediction. Improved tion Project (covering over 1.5 million hectares in seasonal climate prediction--such as with respect to over 2,000 villages in nine basins in over 20 coun- the onset of El Niño events--can significantly help ties of Shanxi, Saanzi, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu agricultural adaptation to climate change. provinces) has helped reverse environmental degra- dation and enhance rural livelihoods through Other adaptation measures are promising in areas improved soil and water conservation measures. such as cost-effective insurance, extension services, dis- The enabling environment to support the tech- ease and pest control, storage facilities, livestock manage- nical interventions was provided by widespread ment, food reserves, marketing, road access, land tenure stakeholder participation, strong political com- regimes, and rural livelihood diversification. In some mitment, land tenure reform, spatial land use cases, traditional management methods are sustainable planning, and institutional strengthening. and deserve reinforcement, as in the case of pasture man- These activities have been recognized as one of agement practices in Mongolia (Box 5.8). the most successful erosion control programs in the world. Over one million people have been Forests and Drylands helped out of poverty. Erosion has been substan- tially reduced (by about 57 m tons/yr) through Forest and dryland ecosystems will need to adapt to afforestation and sediment control, grazing restric- changes in temperature, hydrology, land degradation, tions, and the transformation of farming on steep and an increasing number of fires. Measures to assist slopes to large-scale terracing. Grain output almost this process include: doubled and fruit production quadrupled, rais- ing farmers' annual incomes from about $44 to Stocktaking. identification of which forest areas are at $154 per capita (substantially more than in non- most risk, and which species are unique in these areas. project areas) plus additional downstream benefits. Implementing conservation and management sys- tems. control of deforestation through the estab- Source: World Bank reports and Chen et al., 2004. lishment and enforcement of effective concession systems; reforestation and rehabilitation of barren areas through tree planting and agroforestry; initiat- ing and strengthening forest fire monitoring, pre- to minimize losses and maximize potential gains under paredness, communications, and response (Box 5.9); future climate change. Promising strategies for the tech- biodiversity protection, including designation and nological adaptation to climate change (FAO, 1996) in- effective management of protected areas and protect- clude the following: ing vulnerable species (e.g., helping them to migrate). Improved agricultural practices. increased support Different crop varieties or species. Most major crops to community forestry schemes and assistance for vary in terms of climatic tolerance and maturity, hence local communities to shift from forest products to allowing adaptation to changing climate. Crop diver- more flexible agricultural practices; investments in 36 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Box 5.9 Community Forestry Can Reduce Fire Damage Burn pattern analysis during the fires of 1983, 1997, and 1998 in Kalimantan, Indonesia, has shown that areas under community control experi- enced considerably less burning than areas where industrial cropping was common. In 1997, fire damaged 30,000 hectares of plantations north of Balikpapan in Kalimantan, yet only 30 hectares of community forest was burned (Rowell et al., 1999). Within the Kutai National Park in East Kali- mantan, while fires burned elsewhere in the park in 1997­98, no forest was damaged by fires on the territories of the Teluk Pandan community. The village head had experienced the 1982­83 fires and realized that they could recur at any time in the future. He thus proposed the setting up of com- munity rules for controlled burning, including: · notifying the village head of intention to burn · ensuring that all able-bodied men from the household and adjacent properties are present Box 5.8 Disseminating Traditional and armed with tools and other gear, to pre- Pasture Management in Mongolia vent the fire from going out of control once it has been started Various traditional methods of pasture manage- · ensuring that landowners, who need to burn, ment are known to be resilient to climate variabil- supply the necessary food and drinks to ity. They include the traditional management of participants pasture land, grazing animals, and shifting camps. · imposing a compensation schedule varying with This method depends on the condition of the ter- the type of property (e.g., orange trees, cocoa, rain, season, weather, and water availability. The other crops, and personal property) damaged by National University of Mongolia, the Institute out-of-control fires of Agriculture, and the Environmental Educa- An analysis of the distribution of hotspots by tion and Research Institute initiated a project to satellite imagery indicated that areas used for tradi- teach these traditions to secondary students from tional or shifting cultivation experience the lowest Khangai soum in Arkhangai province. Four pas- fire incidence. This suggests that fire management ture management techniques were covered during by such groups is reasonably effective. this project (i) spring camping in the higher moun- tains, (ii) winter camping in the inner mountains, Source: FAO, 2001. (iii) categorization of grasslands according to ter- rain, and (iv) categorization of grasslands according to season. Students learned how to use a specific area of pasture land; how to choose camping areas; water security to promote long-term diversification how to use appropriate areas close to water bodies; of livelihoods to less water-intensive activities; sus- and how to accumulate, understand, and analyze tainable watershed management, including flood, information about their surroundings. This type land-slide, and erosion control; conservation of nat- of knowledge dissemination and training will be ural vegetation and construction of drainage sys- increasingly important to prepare rural populations tems; managing vegetation for climate resilience and for climate change. improved livestock management; and increasing the Source: IGES, 2002. resilience of arid and semi-arid ecosystems and pro- moting drought early warning systems. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 37 Box 5.10 The Kiribati Adaptation Program Small island states in the Pacific such as Kiribati, a low lying country with most of its land at an eleva- tion of less than two meters above sea level, will be particularly impacted by climate change. As much as 55 to 80 percent of land areas in Kiribati's North Tarawa, and 25­54 percent of areas in South Tarawa could be inundated by 2100 from sea level rise and storm surges. The figure at right indicates the nor- mal scenario, the worst-case scenario in 2100 and the worst-case scenario when also accounting for storm surges. The economic impact could be substantial, with estimated total damages between 17 to 34 percent of Kiribati's GDP being lost by 2050. The pro- jected losses in infrastructure and roads would be substantial. Under the worst-case scenario, the vil- lage of Buariki, in Tarawa, could be inundated, as could 59 percent of the structures and 77 percent of the roads. In Bikenibeu (as illustrated), signifi- cant impact on infrastructure is not expected to occur until 2100 under a worst-case scenario, but it Key lessons learned from the project thus far could then become substantial, with 66­100 per- are that: cent of all roads lost under the combined effects of · adaptation is a major economic risk, not just a storm surge and sea level rise. long-term environmental concern; Though the Kiribati Adaptation Program (KAP) · addressing short-term vulnerabilities is the best financed by the World Bank in 2006, island repre- way to prepare for long-term impacts; sentatives identified major hazards, ranked adapta- · adaptation needs to be housed in a high-level tion options, and classified them into four categories: coordinating Ministry; · adaptation plans need to be an integral part of · Urgent adaptation options which can be done by national development planning; and communities · adaptation needs a long-term programmatic · Urgent adaptation options for which communi- approach linking bottom-up consultation with ties need assistance from the Government top-down planning and policies. · Adaptation options that are less important/urgent · Adaptation options that are not yet needed Source: World Bank, 2000. Marine Ecosystems pollution, promoting sources of construction mater- ial other than coral to reduce reef mining, and Marine and coastal ecosystems are especially vulnerable to replanting mangroves. Structural coastal adaptation increased storms, sea level rise, and other threats to coral measures--such as groins to control sand erosion or reefs and marine fisheries. Adaptation measures include: seawalls--should be screened for their compatibility with coral reef management. Management and protection of coral reefs and Sustainable fishing management measures. Mea- mangroves. Adaptation strategies should involve sures include stronger regional collaboration in the awareness raising, targeted research in coral reef man- negotiation of multilateral agreements with fishing agement, capacity building to enable communities nations; less destructive fishing practices (e.g., bans on and institutions to manage threats, enforcing penal- blast fishing and cyanide fishing); income-generating ties for reef and mangrove destruction, controlling mechanisms such as license fees; improving fishing 38 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 entitlement systems and other ways to better regulate replanting of mangroves, pandamus, and other coastal fishing; diversification and eventual reduction of vegetation to promote shoreline accretion; promoting domestic fishing fleets to adjust to increased fluctua- dune maintenance; closing or narrowing selected pas- tions in fish populations; better use of ENSO fore- sages between lagoons and the ocean; and making selec- casting to help prepare for spatial and temporal tive use of groins in key locations, such as the passage changes in fisheries distribution; and improving edges of islands, to help minimize the transfer of sed- insurance systems to protect fishermen and the aqua- iments from the ocean to lagoons, while avoiding culture industry from drastic shocks. downstream erosion. Also important is the protection of freshwater aquifer systems by regulation of uses, enti- tlement frameworks, pollution control and physical Small Islands recharge by pumping. Low-lying islands or atolls are especially vulnerable to The Kiribati Adaptation Program provides a good climate change due to sea level rise and extreme weather example of the types of interventions that will be events. Strategic planning, the establishment of early needed in many EAP locations. It aims to develop and warning systems and contingency response plans, includ- demonstrate approaches to the systematic diagnosis of ing the planned retreat and relocation of vulnerable climate-related problems and the design of cost-effective populations is critical to these locations. In addition, adaptation measures, while promoting the integration specific protection measures should largely focus on the of climate risk awareness and responsiveness into eco- retention of overwash sediments. Options may include nomic and operational planning (Box 5.10). CHAPTER 6 FINANCING ADAPTATION The Global Adaptation Challenge As countries grapple with ways to mitigate climate change, there is also growing consensus that adaptation will inevitably be needed to cope with impacts of climate change that are already observable, and are foreseen under any future mitigation scenario. Assessments of adaptation- related challenges by the Climate Policy Project of the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) suggest that, while there is growing awareness of the risks of climate change and the importance of addressing adaptation challenges, many countries lack the capacity to cope with future impacts (IGES, 2005). Although some climate change adaptation will happen "autonomously" in response to market forces and environmental pressures, governments will need to develop a policy framework and undertake investments in public goods to encour- regarding formulation and implementation of adapta- age additional adaptation to be undertaken by firms and tion measures. The shortage of funding both domesti- communities. cally and at the international level was seen as a major The emerging consensus is that the benefits of adap- bottleneck. tation will significantly outweigh the costs. The Stern Given the competing demands faced by developing Review (2006) argues that more quantitative information country governments, funding for adaptation will not needs to be developed on the costs of economy-wide adap- be easy to secure, and currently falls significantly below tation needs. However, as in the case of GHG mitigation the Stern Review's estimates of what will be needed. measures, the benefits of strong and early adaptation Fortunately, there are possibilities to finance adaptation action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting. measures both by specially earmarked funds, as well as by The review also concluded that adaptation policy is cru- enhancing regular sustainable development investments cial for dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate with a climate change perspective. change, but that it has been under-emphasized in many countries. The report found that the resources needed Funding Options for economy-wide adaptation were poorly understood, but estimated that they may fall in the range of $15B to Climate Change Adaptation Funding $150B per year globally. This will pose a considerable There are a number of specific funding sources to support challenge for most developing countries. Earlier assess- adaptation to climate change (Table 6.2). The GEF is ments suggested that the global costs of adaptation could the principal agency responsible for facilitating actions comprise 7 to 10 percent of the cost of total damage likely under the UNFCCC including support for interventions to result from climate change.19 that increase the resilience of countries and their vul- Table 6.1 summarizes the major challenges noted nerable citizens, businesses, and ecosystems to the adverse by participants in the 2005 IGES consultations in EAP, impacts of climate change. The UNFCCC adopted a three-stage-approach to adaptation. The first dealt mainly 19. Tol, Frankhauser, and Smith, 1998 with awareness raising and capacity building. 39 40 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Table 6.1 Challenges to Adaptation in the Asia-Pacific Region and Suggested Improvements Challenges Ways of Improvement Domestic challenges Science-related challenges · Capacity development of scientists and · Scientific uncertainty on the impacts experts in vulnerability assessment and of climate change. adaptation planning. · Limited research on local vulnerability · Provision of information and data, with and assessments. international assistance, relevant to the above. Policy-related challenges · Information dissemination and public · Limited awareness among key political awareness promotion on needs of actors. long-term planning and investment. Resource-related challenges · Strengthening of international funding · Shortage of relevant technologies. mechanisms for adaptation, and · Shortage of finance. enhancing their flexibility. · Provision of additional "adaptation- International challenges Shortage of funds for adaptation focused" ODA. · Contributions to the Special Climate · Promotion of understanding and Change Fund (SCCF) and the Least- agreements on prioritisation in inter- Developed Countries Fund (LDC national financing. Fund) are far from adequate and · Integration of available "adaptation" funds below their commitments. into conventional "development" funds. · Two percent of the CDM proceeds · Further focus on development and for the Adaptation Fund are seen as transfer of adaptation technologies. inadequate. · Elaboration of CDM projects which · Immaturity of the CDM market made might contribute to adaptation, and the Adaptation Fund meaningless new CDM scheme that can incorporate so far. combination of various funds, such as Poor operation of international private investment, ODA, and other mechanisms benevolent funds. · Complexity and rigidity of conditions · Enhancing the flexibility for accessing for GEF funding especially with GEF funds allocated for adaptation. regard to "incremental costs" and "global benefits." Source: IGES, 2005. The second focused on support to preparation and infrastructure. The GEF also provides small grants of submissionofnationalcommunicationstothe UNFCCC, up to $5M to support community-based adaptation including national GHG inventories and vulnerability initiatives. and adaptation assessments. As the table illustrates, a number of other funds are Recently, the GEF has begun moving into the third being set up specifically for climate change adaptation, as phase of this approach, supporting pilot and demon- the international community gears up to address this key stration projects. These projects will provide real benefits development challenge. Three such funds--the Special that have been useful for developing, testing, and insti- Climate Change Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund, tutionalizing rational approaches to local problems such and the Adaptation Fund--were established in 2001 at as flooding, erosion, and water scarcity. For example, the the Sixth Conference of Parties (COP6) to help devel- Pacific Islands Adaptation to Climate Change Project oping countries address the adverse effects of climate will address water resources management, food produc- change. Resources from the first two, amounting to a tion and food security, and coastal zone and associated proposed $120M are to be disbursed through the GEF. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 41 Table 6.2 Adaptation Funding Legal Basis Total for Funding Main Funds (COP Activities Name of Funding Mobilised and GEF Operational of the Fund Source (US$) decisions) Criteria Support Remarks I. Funds established under the Convention (Articles 4.1, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5, 4.8, and 4.9) (a) Global GEF UNFCCC · Incremental · Vulnerability Environment Article 4.3 cost to and adapta- Facility 1/CP.11, achieve tion assess- (GEF) Trust 5/CP.7 global envi- ments as part Fund GEF/C.23/ ronmental of national Inf.8 benefits communica- tions and enabling activities (b) Strategic GEF 50 million 6/CP.7 · Incremental · Pilot and Priority GEF/C.23/ cost guid- demonstra- on Adaptation Inf.8 ance with tion projects (SPA) some flexi- on adapta- bility, espe- tion cially for · Small Grants Small Grants Programme Programme ($5 M) to support community- based adap- tation (c) Special Voluntary 45.4 million 5/CP.7, · Additional · Addresses GEF alloca- Climate contributions (Contribu- 7/CP.7, cost of adap- adaptation as tion of 2.0 M Change Fund from 11 tions: 5/CP.9 tation mea- one of the was used for (SCCF) developed 36.7 M GEF/ sures four funding projects and countries Pledged: C.24/ 12; · Sliding scale priorities administra- (Canada, 8.7 M) GEF/C.25/ for co- tive support. Denmark, 4/ financing Finland, Rev.1 Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) (continued) 42 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Table 6.2 Adaptation Funding (continued ) Legal Basis Total for Funding Main Funds (COP Activities Name of Funding Mobilised and GEF Operational of the Fund Source (US$) decisions) Criteria Support Remarks (d) Least Voluntary 75.7 million 5/CP.7, · Guiding · Implementa- GEF alloca- Developed contributions (Previous 7/CP.7, principles: tion of tion of US$ Countries Fund from 13 contribu- 27/CP.7, country- NAPAs (all 11.8 M to (LDC Fund) developed tions: 29.9 M 28/CP.7, driven projects for LDCF was countries Pledged: 29/CP.7, approach, the prepara- approved for (Canada, 45.8 M GEF 6/CP.9 equitable tion of projects, Denmark, allocation to 3/CP11, access by NAPAs in administra- Finland, date: 11.8 M) 4/CP11 LDCs, expe- 44 countries tive budgets France, GEF dited sup- approved & special Germany, C/24/Inf.7; port and with a bud- initiatives Ireland, Italy, GEF/C.24/ prioritisation get of US$ Netherlands, Inf.8/ of activities 9.6 M) New Rev.1; · Provision of Zealand, GEF/C.25/ full cost Norway, 4/Rev.1 funding for Spain, Swe- adaptation den, and increment as Switzerland identified as of 30 and priori- April 2006) tised in NAPAs · Sliding scale for co- financing II. Fund established under the Kyoto Protocol (Article 4.10) (a) Adaptation 2% Share of Not yet 5/CP.7, · Guiding · Concrete Fund proceeds operational 10/CP.7, principles: adaptation from CDM 17/CP.7 country- projects & 28/CMP1 driven and programmes a "learning- identified in by-doing" decision approach, 5/CP7 sound finan- cial manage- ment & transparency, separation from other funding sources Source: IGES, 2005. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE 43 The Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) has Mainstreaming Mitigation into Sustainable already started to support the preparation and imple- Development Investments mentation of National Adaptation Programmes of There are a number of options for countries to pursue Action (NAPAs), through which the most urgent adap- in financing adaptation to climate change that could have tation priorities for the most vulnerable countries are short-tem benefits while keeping a longer-term sus- identified. Programs have been taken up for countries tainability perspective. For example, EAP governments, such as Kiribati and Cambodia. The Special Climate donors, the private sector, and international agencies Change Fund (SCCF) will fund a wider range of adap- routinely invest large sums in financing development tation activities in all developing countries. In the case of (e.g., transportation, energy, irrigation, service delivery, LDCF and SCCF, resources are mobilized through vol- water and natural resources management). Mainstream- untary contributions by about a dozen developed coun- ing climate change adaptation goals into these invest- tries. The Adaptation Fund will be funded by a 2 percent ments could make a substantial difference in financing share of certified emission reduction revenues from adaptation. CDM projects. The managing agency and types of Box 6.2 describes a new program focusing on water adaptation projects to be financed by the fund have yet resources management and rural development in China. to be agreed upon. As consensus builds that climate change is critical to the EAP region's sustainability, and that there are already Climate Change Mitigation Financing manifestations of this change today, there is a need for the region to factor climate change into development plans Many of the options under the Clean Development and investments. Continuing with a "business-as-usual" Mechanism (CDM), which are becoming available to scenario may result in rolling back the gains the region countries for climate change mitigation, may also help has made on economic growth and poverty alleviation, in adaptation. These may include financing to reduce as reflected in progress to achieve the Millennium Devel- emissions in the energy, transport, industrial and opment Goals (MDGs). agricultural sectors, as well as financing to improve A concerted effort to address climate change adap- sequestration (e.g., afforestation and watershed man- tation will also have the co-benefits of developing a agement). These measures promote more sustainable longer-term planning perspective, improved response to development paradigms, improving local livelihoods, threats and opportunities related to climate variability, and reducing pressures on land, water, and energy sup- and accelerated sustainable economic growth and poverty plies (Box 6.1). alleviation. Box 6.1 Financing Climate Change Programs from Market Mechanisms in China Unprecedented economic growth in China has been In the context of the HFC-23 operation, the accompanied by a significant increase in GHG emis- Government of China has established regulations sions, especially from industrial processes. One of the that set aside 65 percent of the revenues of HFC-23 most potent GHGs emitted in China is Trifluo- CDM transactions to constitute a CDM Fund. The romethane (HFC-23), a by-product released in the fund will promote climate change mitigation projects production of HCFC-22, an industrial chemical and will also receive shares from the sale of CERs used in refrigeration and other applications. HFC-23 from other GHGs. This fund is likely to exceed has 11,700 times the global warming potential of $1.25 billion by 2012, and would be a significant carbon dioxide, measured in tons of carbon dioxide source of support for climate initiatives. equivalent, or TCO2e. The World Bank's China Asian countries (excluding China and India) now HFC-23 Emissions Reduction Project supports account for nearly ten percent of the CDM market. China's participation in the CDM, and led to the As the use of market mechanisms to reduce GHG world's largest CDM transaction to date, with the emissions expands, governments in EAP could design purchase of certified emission reductions (CERs) cor- similar programs to fund both mitigation and adap- responding to approximately 18 million TCO2e per tation activities. year, worth more than $930 million, from two Chi- nese chemical manufacturing companies. Source: World Bank, 2006. 44 EAST ASIA ENVIRONMENT MONITOR 2007 Box 6.2 Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Water Resources Management and a Rural Development Project in China China's huge and growing population and its heavy irrigation efficiency and switch over to less water- dependence on irrigated agriculture mean that its agri- dependent crops. cultural productivity, food supply and water availabil- A planned World Bank/GEF project "Main- ity are highly vulnerable to climate change. China streaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Water recognizes the threats that climate change poses and is Resources Management and Rural Development" preparing a National Strategy for Climate Change. It will help the local governments on the North China is so far, however, relatively ill-equipped to respond to Plain to make those changes and disseminate their the threats because of overlapping and unclear institu- experience and lessons nationwide. The project will: tional mandates, limited understanding of what prior- (i) quantify the area's climatic change risks; (ii) select ity to adaptation actions to take, and limited capacity the most cost-effective water management and crop- to take them. ping measures to adapt to them; (iii) test and record The North China Plain produces 50 percent of their effectiveness; (iv) promote the replication of China's grain output, and is crucial for food security. those measures that show the most promise; and As it is a relatively low rainfall area, its grain output (v) disseminate the experience gained nationwide. Collaboration among the key institutions responsible is heavily dependent on irrigation. Unfortunately, for water and agriculture services and their capacity to average rainfall is declining, water use efficiency is promote adaptation will be developed while under- relatively low, and underground aquifers are being taking the pilot adaptation activities. rapidly depleted. Action is, therefore, urgently needed and will be even more vital in the long term to raise Source: World Bank, 2007. Annex A EAP KEY INDICATORS 2 GNI) 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 1 CO -- 0.9 -- 0.1 0.4 0.5 3.8 -- 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -- 0.2 0 0 -- 0.4 1.3 Damage (% 2 US$) CO (kg/2000 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 -- 0.7 -- 0 0.1- 0.2 1.9 -- 0.3 0.2- 0.2- 0.1 -- -- -- -- 0.2 -- Emissions/ PPP GDP 2 tons) capita 3.9 2.4 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.9 3.7 0.2 6.3 6.5 0 CO 0.2- 0.4 3.4 -- 1.6 0.4 0.8- 0.4 -- 0.3 -- -- 1 -- Emissions per (metric PPP equiv.) 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.4 7.8 5 -- 3.9 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ------ -- -- (2000 US$/kg oil GDP/Energy Use Use oil capita 753 544 525 (kg equiv.) 1,734 1,007 1,094 ,4061 276 ,3182 896 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Energy per tot. 6.5 2.7 5.6 Forest Area of 30.5 28.4 21.2 48.8 39.7 24 28.4 49 63.6 51.4 59.2 69.9 65 53.7 54.7 77.6 60.4 36.1 90 -- 90 -- -- land) (% land) 8 2 4 Land tot. 38 51 59 25 30 41 36 17 24 24 30 83 23 25 46 12 25 51 78 67 -- 42 -- of Agricultural (% sq 3 0 1 0 1 1 15 18 28 12 325 298 511 658 329 120 177 231 453 Land Area km) 9,327 1,812 1,567 -- -- 15,885 (1000 129,663 Per 540 -- -- 350 390 560 600 550 560 -- 970 -- GNI Capita (US$) 6,329 1,416 1,500 1,140 1,170 2,490 4,520 2,720 1,840 1,390 2,320 2,300 1,860 6,870 4.9 2.5 3.9 1.6 0.3 2.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 45.2 84.6 -- -- GDP (US$ billions) ,6512 257.6 161.7 -- 118.3 -- 1,931.70 41,290 %)( .77 Urban 48.8 40.6 39.6 46.7 26.2 61.8 32.2 30 64.4 61.4 19.2 21.2 13.2 56.9 52.5 16.8 22.2 23.3 90.7 48.7 66.6 29.7 4.49 32.8 68.5 2006. Population Book 5.8 5.8 2.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.1 0 Data 82.2 81.6 63.7 50 24.9 22.4 13.8 217.6 Population (millions) 6,365 1,870 1,296.20 Green Little Guinea FS Islands Bank Islands Somoa Islands DR New World PDR Mariana Region/Country World EAP China Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Myanmar Malaysia Korea Cambodia Laos Papua Mongolia Timor-Leste Fiji Solomon Samoa Vanuatu American Kiribati Marshall Micronesia N. Tonga Palau Source: 45 Annex B WORLD BANK PUBLICATIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE World Bank. 2006. Not If But When: Adapting to World Bank. 2002. Sustainable Development and the Natural Hazards in the Pacific Islands Region. World Global Environment: The Experience of the World Bank Bank Policy Note. (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ Group--Global Environment Facility Program. INTPACIFICISLANDS/Resources/Natural-Hazards- report.pdf?) World Bank. 2001. Making Sustainable Commitments: Environment Strategy for the World Bank. (Annex F-- World Bank. 2005. Disaster Risk Management in a Climate Change) http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ Changing Climate. World Bank Discussion Paper. INTCC/Miscellaneous/20733920/ (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCC/ EnvStrategyAnnexF2001.pdf 2145741110866984338/20790846/Disaster_ risk_management.pdf) World Bank. 2000. Climate Information and Forecast- ing for Development: Lessons from the 1997/98 El Niño, World Bank. 2005. Natural Disaster Risk Management Volume 1. in the Philippines: Enhancing Poverty Alleviation Through Disaster Reduction. World Bank Sector Report. World Bank. 2000. Cities, Seas & Storms: Managing Change in the Pacific Islands Economies. World Bank et al. 2004. Clean Development Mechanism in China: Taking a Proactive and Sustainable Approach. World Bank. 2000. Come Hell or High Water-- (http://www.worldbank.org.cn/English/content/ Integrating Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation cdm-china.pdf) into Bank Work, Volume 1. World Bank. 2004. 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