NOTE 1 SKILLS IN GUINEA: SUPPLY AND DEMAND NOTE 1 SKILLS IN GUINEA: SUPPLY AND DEMAND ©2015 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Contents Acknowledgements v Abbreviations and Acronyms vii Executive Summary 1 1. Introduction 4 Profile of Education, Skills, and Employment in the Current Business 2.  Climate in Guinea 4 3. Production and Skill Needs of Firms 8 4. Insights into the Labor Market 10 5. Conclusions and Recommendations 13 References 15 Annex I: Employer Survey Methodology 16 List of Figures Figure 1:  Most Problematic Factors for Doing Businessa 5 Figure 2:  Educational Attainment, Youth and Adult 5 Average Annual Simulated Earning by Education Levels Figure 3:  6 Earning Incremental by Level of Education Compared to no Education Figure 4:  Category for Employed Working Age Population (age 15–64) 6 Figure 5:  Unemployment Rate for Youth and Adults, 2012 7 Figure 6:  Educational Sector Attainment by Sector of Employment, Youth and Adult 7 Figure 7:  Monthly Income by Economic Sector (GNF millions), Youth and Adult 8 Figure 8:  Household Income Quintiles by Region 8 Figure 10:  Employee Education Level 9 Figure 9:  Education Level of Enterprise Directors 9 Figure 11:  Key Basic Skills Required by Employers 10 Figure 12:  Key Personal Skills Required by Employers 10 Figure 13:  Lack of Qualified Skills and Positions by Sector 11 Figure 14:  Waiting Time Before Initial Employment 11 Figure 15:  Access to Employment as Reported by Employees 11 Figure 16:  Share of Enrollment by Discipline 12 List of Tables Table 1:  Social and Private Rates of Return to Schooling 7 List of Boxes Creating University-Industry Links in Ireland Box 1:  13 Acknowledgements The four higher education policy notes were prepared by Na- ruma, Fatoumata Camara Poly, Abdoulaye Mbemba Camara, thalie Lahire (Task Team Leader), with contributions from Atigou Bah, and Ousmane Kaba Sonali Ballal, Francois Keslair, Jaques L’Ecuyer, Adrien Lor- The peer reviewers were Lucy Fye, Harsha Aturupane, Atou enceau, Achille Mignondo Tchibozo, and Claire Morel. These Seck and Roberta Bassett. Valuable comments on initial drafts notes were prepared in partnership with the Guinean Min- were received from Peter Materu, and Emanuela Di Gropello. istry of Higher Education team led by Abdoulaye Diakité Cheick F. Kante and Peter Materu provided overall guidance (Secretaire General) and comprising of the following mem- for the project. bers: Tidjane Diallo, Sékou Konaté, Momo Bangoura, Mama- The World Bank is grateful for the funding received from dou Kodiougou Diallo, Abdoul Karim Diallo, Mamadi Ku- the Norwegian Education Trust Fund. Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | v Abbreviations and Acronyms CEO Chief Executive Officer CPS Country Partnership Strategy ELEP Limited Poverty Assessment Survey GCI Global Competitiveness Index GNF Guinean Francs ICT Information and Communication Technology PPP Public-Private Partnerships PREMA Program for Reform of the State and Modernization of Administration PRSP3 Third National Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TTI Technology Transfer Initiative TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | vii Executive Summary The World Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for All of these goals must be achieved while ensuring that the Guinea in FY 2014–171 confirmed the Government’s priority needs of the labor market are met by the education system. to build 21st century skills for improved employability and to The education system must equip graduates with the skills implement systemic reforms. Guinea is emerging from years needed by the emerging export-oriented economy. Develop- of political and economic isolation and instability. The demo- ing relevant skills programs that provide students with the cratic election of President Alpha Condé has opened the door competencies in demand and will subsequently enable them for the international donor community, including the World to be employed in an economy that values a technological and Bank, to come forward and support the new government. Its scientific skill set. Government needs to lay the groundwork important reform agenda, PREMA,2 has helped restore the to offer training in the relevant fields at the secondary, voca- confidence of the international community. The World Bank tional, and higher education levels. will partner with the Government of Guinea to develop sys- Despite its abundant natural resources, Guinea has strug- tems that will “improve lagging human development indica- gled to become attractive to investors and entrepreneurs. In tors for absolute poverty reduction, through more efficient and the Ease of doing Business report, Guinea ranks 175th out of transparent allocation of resources, and to build shared prosper- 189 countries.3 Firms operate in a heavily constrained envi- ity by aligning the business environment and education system ronment and face frequent power shortages and a slow bu- with Guinea’s economy” (World Bank, 2013, pp. 1). This is in reaucracy. All of these factors contribute to poor business pol- line with the government’s priorities, as per the Third National icies. This unfavorable business environment is also partly the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP3) approved in 2013. result of poor governance and petty corruption. The Interna- The PRSP3 aims to reduce poverty and to create and sustain tional Finance Corporation is providing substantial support to a vibrant private economy by maximizing rents from Guin- strengthen Guinea’s business environment. Lack of local skills ea’s substantial mining sector. The Bank supports the Govern- is an important constraint, and in order for jobs in the emerg- ment’s agenda on improving human capital by: (a) promoting ing sectors (mining, construction, hotel industry, banking and both the quantity and quality of education and (b) upgrading finance) to be filled by Guineans rather than foreigners, the skills for the needs of emerging and export-oriented sectors Government must equip its youth with the skills required. such as agriculture, tourism, mining, and telecommunications In 2012, the Government requested special support from the and Information and Communications Technology (ICT). Bank in the form of technical assistance to conduct an analysis The education system has made significant progress, with of the higher education system. This analysis would be used the primary gross enrollment rate reaching 83 percent as of to prepare a comprehensive higher education strategy to meet 2013. However, challenges remain in the areas of coverage, the needs of both the economy and the labor market. Since the quality, and relevance. Approximately 60 percent of the stu- early 2000s, the Bank had limited involvement in this critical dent population between the ages of 8 and 14 are out of school, sub-sector. Per the Government’s request, the Bank mobilized and learning assessments conclude that the government must resources to engage in policy and analytical work in the areas step up its efforts to improve completion rates, gender parity, of governance, financing, and diagnostic of skills demand and and learning outcomes. University enrollments have increased supply from a new employer survey prepared specifically un- tenfold over 10 years, reaching more than 95,000 students in der this technical assistance project. 2012. However, Guinea’s higher education coverage rate re- mains relatively low compared to its neighbors, at 916 students 1. Supply and Demand: Higher Education and Skills. This note at 100,000 inhabitants. In addition, the traditional opportu- reviews the current state of education and workforce skills nities for Guinean graduates on the labor market through from an employer perspective. It identifies the key bottle- the civil service are no longer sufficient. Graduates between necks faced by firms in hiring qualified workers and provides the ages of 25 and 35 are facing unemployment rates close to concrete recommendations to improve workforce quality. 30 percent, increasing the likelihood of social instability. 2. Current Outcomes and Challenges: Diagnostic of the High- er Education System. In this note, we trace the evolution of the higher education system. The note shows trends over 1 The other two areas are: improving governance and service delivery and time, highlights tracer characteristics, and draws compari- stimulating growth and economic diversification (World Bank. 2013. Country sons between the public and private provision of education. Partnership Strategy for Guinea). 2 PREMA stands for Program of Reform of the State and Modernization 3. Governance of Higher Education. The key governance issues of the Administration and it has the following items on agenda: organization faced by the Guinean higher education system are presented. of the country, management of the human resources available in the public sector, improvement of fiscal and economic governance, and overhaul of the judiciary. 3 World Bank (2014). Doing Business Report. Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 1 Conceptual Framework they need, leading to a substantial proportion of vacancies. To increase the relevance of the education system to the labor • Reforms between • Education and skills pro le market, the agriculture, construction and mining industries 1989–2010 • Employment in the current recommend a focus on the entire system. • State of business climate As Guinea strives to embark on an accelerated development higher education • Production and skill needs path, its ability to meet the demands of a diversified economy • Labor market insights will be partly determined by the quantity and quality of its Diagnostic Supply & Demand trained workforce. An emphasis on growing Guinea’s Tech- nical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) sector, adjusting university programs for greater relevance, and de- veloping strategic partnerships with the private sector will Financing Governance gradually close the gap between skills supply and demand. • Education nance • Governance challenges • Higher education nancing • Higher education Current Outcomes and Note 2:  • E ciency & Equity governance • Best practices: Challenges: Diagnostic of the international examples Higher Education System Human capital is increasingly a key ingredient for economic success: in Guinea, vast mineral reserves paired with a lack of The note delves into the reforms undertaken by the govern- appropriate skills to exploit their potential keeps the country ment after 2011 with a focus on the two presidential decrees. trapped in poverty. Though enrollment rates have significant- 4. Financing of Higher Education. The note provides a brief ly improved over the past decade, Guinea has yet to ensure overview of education funding and structure; the main fo- that its education system produces a labor force composed of cus is on the sources and uses of public and private funds for workers with the low, middle, and high level skills required by higher education. high-growth-potential sectors. Access to higher education remains a more significant bar- These four distinct policy notes are intended for policy rier for girls. In 2011–12, only one fourth of higher education makers and technical staff. They may be read individually or students were girls, in contrast to high schools where about 40 as a series. The results from this work will also form the cor- percent of students were girls.4 However, the share of girls by nerstone for a new higher education operation in Guinea. level remains rather stable over time. This implies: girls have as good, if not superior, academic performance as boys, and once they enter higher education, they do not face many con- Higher Education and Skills: Note 1:  straints in continuing to pursue their education. Between 1989 Supply and Demand and 2010, three major reforms—the transformation of Higher Education Institutions into public administrative institutions, Economic development and civic participation in Guinea extension and diversification of universities, and transition to are hampered by an extremely low literacy rate and a poorly the Licence-Master-Doctorat system—have set the higher ed- educated working population, especially in rural areas. Near- ucation system on a more promising path, though progress ly 22 percent of youth were either economically inactive or remains to be made in the areas of institutional autonomy, ac- unemployed in 2012, with the highest unemployment rates cess in equity, institutional capacity, and teaching quality. found among the educated population, pointing to a marked Higher education receives a disproportionate share of all mismatch between the supply and demand of skills. public education spending, relative to enrollment levels. More In general, the education system is neither responsive to nor troubling is the allocation: nearly half of the budget goes to currently producing graduates equipped to adequately meet scholarships, and of that, the majority supports predominant- the needs of the labor market. Universities offer a predomi- ly wealthier students enrolled in private institutions. nantly theoretical education, despite the fact that firms value With the simultaneous removal of entry requirements and experience and practical skills. The school to work transition substantial increase in high school graduates, higher educa- offers further insight into the extent of the training-labor mar- tion enrollment has soared. Though private institutions are ket absorption mismatch. Graduates of longer-term programs multiplying and thus helping to absorb the surge, Guinea re- enter the job market earlier than those completing short pro- mains below the Sub-Saharan average for private higher edu- grams, but there is no distinction between the different levels of cation enrollment. It should be noted that while access has ex- programs. Employers report difficulty finding employees with panded, secondary education access, completion, and course the skills they require, and the informality of the labor market, selection largely determine the distribution of tertiary educa- aggravated by the preference for hiring through personal net- tion students across program areas, with obvious consequenc- works, has important consequences for equity and efficiency. es for subsequent employment opportunities. Furthermore, Universities offer predominantly theoretical education, the current system offers little flexibility and few opportunities when firms value experience and practical skills. For exam- ple, in the construction, industry and service sectors, one in five firms state that they cannot find the type of qualifications 4 ELEP (2012). 2 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand for adjustments to labor market needs. High repetition rates the entire student body, and the subsidies eating up most of the throughout primary and secondary education creates delays budget not only prevent better leveraging of public funds; they in university enrollment and thus the entry of the most skilled also remove incentives to develop relevant and innovative high- labor onto the labor market. er education programs. Indeed, funding for higher education is Guinea’s higher education landscape offers ample public-pri- neither allocated nor used efficiently: almost half of the higher vate partnership possibilities, from forecasting to curriculum education funding for operating expenditures is used to support development, training, job placement, and equipment provi- students in public and private universities through stipends and sion. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are the key to devel- scholarships, regardless of the academic merits of the student oping the healthy, equitable, and high-quality education system and the value of the program in the labor market. Furthermore, that will enable Guinea to develop and sustain a skilled and evidence shows that this support is both insufficient to cover versatile workforce that will enable Guinea to take advantage of students’ needs, and not allocated to the students most in need. its immense natural resources and achieve economic stability. Improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the sector will require revamping of the scholarship and subsidy payments to higher education students and institutions, greater involve- Governance of Higher Education Note 3:  ment of the private sector as partners, and the introduction of performance-based contracts for increased accountability of Over the past decade, governance reforms, which include in- both public and private institutions. creased institutional autonomy, diversification of programs, and additional resources for institutions, have contributed to the re- awakening of the higher education sector in Africa’s developing Policy Recommendations countries. In Guinea, the central government has pursued three Policy challenge Recommendations decentralization strategies: delegation to (a) a lower level of gov- ernment, (b) a buffer body, or (c) institutions themselves. Skills supply and demand Develop and improve skills mismatch relevant programs aligned with Moving towards a fully autonomous system should be an employer demand incremental process. Given the differences in economic con- Involve the private sector ditions and development of the higher education system, this as partners in curriculum note examines countries on a similar scale, particularly in the development, practical training, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, namely: Ethiopia, Nigeria, and financing. Ghana, and Kenya. Disconnect between schools/ Facilitate intermediaries to link The successful reforms among the ones adopted are high- graduates and potential skills profiles with jobs lighted to provide examples of best practices. employers Reform labor market access Guinean institutions do not have the institutional autono- Uneven access to relevant Reduce geographical inequities my to hire and fire permanent teaching staff, and the growth training programs and ensure school and labor of teaching staff has not kept pace with enrollments. Private market reform and adequate institutions “poach” teachers from public institutions, aggra- distribution of training programs throughout the country vating the shortage, and the low level of international facul- ty indicates that opportunities for research collaboration and Expand education opportunities for the poor and girls innovation are insufficient. More than one third of qualified teachers will retire within the next two years. Guinea recently Lack of autonomy of The government and the institutions higher education institutions adopted and is in the process of adopting Decrees that will need support to facilitate their change the higher education landscape. This roadmap for a transition towards a decentralized successful transition towards a more decentralized system of and more autonomous higher higher education should be combined with initiatives to re- education system lax the stringent conditions attached to the budget and allow Higher education institutions more flexibility in its use; give control to institutions over the should be given control over the recruitment, promotion, and recruitment, promotion, and management of their teaching management of their teaching and research staff; and implement adequate accountability and research staff. and quality assurance mechanisms. Autonomy with adequate accountability and quality Financing of Higher Education Note 4:  assurance mechanisms. Inflexible budget Relax the stringent conditions The education sector is supported by three sources of financ- attached to the budget and allow more flexibility in its use ing: government, household, and donor financing, respective- ly. Major challenges include highly centralized funding, dis- Inefficient and disproportionate Revamp the scholarship and spending on student subsidy payments to higher connect between the budget and sectoral goals, fluctuation in scholarships education students and expenditures and consequent lack of predictability. institutions Guinea’s suboptimal allocation of resources is among the Lack of accountability Introduce performance- most important challenges facing the education sector. One- based contracts for increased third of total public education funding goes to higher educa- accountability of both public and tion, even though enrollment accounts for only eight percent of private institutions. Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 3 1. Introduction Profile of Education, Skills, and 2.  In Guinea, the quality of human capital is as crucial for Employment in the Current Business economic success as its vast mineral resources. Improving Climate in Guinea the quality of education, ensuring the creation of a produc- tive labor with high returns, and, above all, encouraging the Doing Business in Guinea creation of private enterprises through a favorable business Despite its abundant natural resources, Guinea is not yet climate are all essential to boosting productivity and skills. attractive to investors and entrepreneurs. In the Ease in Today, traditional civil service opportunities available are in- doing Business report, Guinea ranks 175th out of 189 coun- sufficient to absorb ever-growing numbers of Guinean grad- tries.6 Firms operate in a risky environment with few pub- uates. University enrollments have increased tenfold over the lic goods and face heavy bureaucracy, both of which con- past 10 years, reaching more than 95,000 students in 2012. tribute to poor business policies. Part of this inefficiency Graduates between the ages of 25 and 35 face an unemploy- stems from poor governance: Guinea is ranked 147th out of ment rate close to 30 percent, posing a threat to social stabili- 148 countries on the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), ty. Education remains disconnected from work, and students ahead of only Chad.7,8,9,10 Respondents rank corruption, ac- are not distributed among academic disciplines according to cess to financing, inadequate infrastructure, policy insta- any economic logic. Technical and vocational training is un- bility, and inefficient government bureaucracy as the most derdeveloped relative to the needs of industry, namely min- problematic factors for doing business in Guinea (Figure 1). ing, construction, and agriculture in particular. Companies 65 percent of surveyed firms cite limited access to electric- hire mainly through personal connections, creating a system ity as the main obstacle, followed by transportation, cited in which, for all sectors but agriculture, the majority of em- by10 percent of firms.11 ployees report obtaining their jobs through acquaintances. Ensuring that currently underexploited mining resourc- Even in the formal economy, firms recruit predominantly via es prove valuable to Guinea will require good governance informal networks. and institution-building. The country is endowed with The productivity of graduates increases sharply once tremendous mining resources, namely bauxite: Guinea has they become involved in complex operations within large 10.6 billion tons of bauxite reserves confirmed, and expects companies. Unfortunately, with the exception of large min- an additional 29.6 billion tons.12 Processing industries would ing companies, enterprises with the capacity to offer these enable the export of aluminum, rather than raw bauxite, for opportunities are almost non-existent outside of Conakry. improved resource generation. The lack of transport infrastructure and weak electrical power grid, coupled with a poorly developed financial sys- tem and challenging institutional environment hinder both Education and Skills Profile the creation of new businesses and growth of existing busi- Economic development and civic participation in Guinea are nesses. Growth projections are encouraging, although not hampered by an extremely low literacy rate and a poorly ed- as high as expected due to the Ebola virus disease, and de- mand for skilled labor is now a national priority. Maximiz- ing the outputs of these new jobs will require strengthening the linkages between higher education (including technical employees surveyed, public administration (16.8%) and industry (31.9%) and vocational education and training (TVET)) and high- are over-represented and the commercial sector is highly under-repre- sented. The weight of enterprises providing services (23.2%), education growth sectors. and health (6.4%) and construction (6.6%), corresponds to the results In this note, we review the current state of education and of the household survey. The service sector dominates the sample (30%) workforce skills in Guinea. With the support of the new with agriculture, commerce, education and health, and industry coming employer-employee survey prepared under this technical in at 15 percent each. A smaller number of firms come from construc- assistance5 and household surveys covering years 2007 tion (6.5%) and public administration (3%). The second part of the survey covered a sample of employees from firms selected in the first part. Apart and 2012, the note will identify the key bottlenecks faced from services and construction, the education levels of this sample reflect by firms in hiring qualified workers. The note will con- information reported by employees. clude by providing recommendations to improve work- 6 World Bank. 2014. Doing Business Report. World Bank. force quality. 7 2013–14 Global Competitiveness Report. WEF, 2013 8 The GCI takes into account 12 factors to calculate a country’s competitive- ness: institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic environment, health and primary education, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency, financial market development, technological readi- ness, market size, business sophistication and innovation. 5 The aim of the new employer (employee) survey conducted jointly by 9 In 2012–13, Guinea was 141 out of 144 in the GCI Index. the World Bank and the Government of Guinea was dual: it constituted 10 The report defines competitiveness as “the set of institutions, policies, and a follow-up of the 2006 enterprise survey and covered key additional in- factors that determine the level of productivity of a country (WEF, 2013, page 4).” formation regarding the demand for skills. There were two parts to the 11 These figures are much higher than the SSA average at 40 and 5 percent employer survey: first, a questionnaire sent to Chief Executive Officers respectively. (CEO)s that asks for details on the functioning of the labor market, and 12 All estimates for mineral resources come from «Les Enjeux de la gourver- second, a focus on a sample of firm employees. The data was collected in nance du secteur minier en Guinée», Guinea/Germany cooperation. The orig- 2012 and comprised a sample of 1,487 employees in 526 establishments. A inal estimates for bauxite are from Mamedov, Dr. V., Catalogue des gisements detailed description of the methodology is available in the annex. Among et indices de minéralisation bauxitique en République de Guinée, 2003. 4 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand Figure 1: Most Problematic Factors for Doing Businessa have never attended primary school (Figure 2).13 In 2012, 40 percent of 8–10 year olds were not in school, and only Corruption 27 percent of the 20–24 age group had reached high school Access to nancing or college (the evolution of higher education in Guinea is Inadequate supply of infrastructure detailed in Note 2. This state of affairs can be attributed to Policy instability Government’s emphasis on “education for all” beginning Ine cient government bureaucracy only in the 1990s. Inadequately educated workforce Government instability/coups In ation Employment Profile Crime and theft Estimates from ELEP 2012 indicate that Guinea’s labor market Foreign currency relations is clearly signaling a need for significant investment in educa- Poor work ethics Restrictive labor regulations tion. Figure 3 shows average simulated annual income by level Insu cient capacity to innovate of education and age. A higher level of education leads to a Tax regulations higher lifetime earning horizon. Poor public health Tax rates Income and Its Effects by Economic Sector 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 The Mincerian regression coefficient shows that Guinea’s la- Source: Taken from WEF (2013). bor market has a strong signal for education, both in wage employment and household income. When estimating returns Note: a From the list of factors above, respondents were asked to select the five most problematic for doing business in their country and to rank based on household consumption, the education level of the them between 1 (most problematic) and 5. The bars in the figure show the household head is used. The results show that, among salaried responses weighted according to their rankings. workers, one additional year of education is associated with an average increase of monthly earnings by 9 percent, while income-based estimation hovers around 11 percent increase ucated working population, especially in rural areas. Guin- in household income per additional years of household head’s ea has one of the lowest literacy rates in the world: in 2012, education. only 24.3 percent of Guineans older than 25 reported being Estimates by level of education reveal that a higher level able to read and write. Education prospects remain bleak. of education is associated with higher earnings at all levels Currently, 76.9 percent of the population has never attended of education, both for wage employment and household in- school, and of those who did enter school, only two-thirds come (Figure 4). The other notable aspect regarding educa- completed primary school, and only 6.3 percent had access to higher or technical education. Four-fifths of urban youth have attended school, whereas 70 percent of rural Guineans 13 Source: ELEP 2010 (Household survey) Figure 2: Educational Attainment, Youth and Adult Youth (age 15–35) Adult (age 15–64) TVET Higher education TVET Higher education 1.38 3.99 Upper secondary 1.72 3.78 Upper secondary 3.73 4.95 Lower secondary Lower secondary 6.37 4.81 Completed primary 13.64 Completed primary 18.31 Incomplete No education No education primary 53.64 63.07 9.25 Incomplete primary 11.35 Source: ELEP (2012). Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 5 Figure 3:  Average Annual Simulated Earning by household member’s education, primary completion yields Education Levels high returns. Therefore, education is the most important fac- tor for poverty reduction. 2,000,000 Primary education has the highest private and social rates of return (Table 1). This is consistent with other findings in developing countries.14 After primary education, the private Average annual income 1,500,000 rate of return for post-secondary education is the most favor- able at 8.9 percent, compared to 7.5 percent for the social rate 1,000,000 of returns. Aside from the private and social benefits of investing in 500,000 education, Guinea’s generally unfavorable human develop- ment measures constitute another compelling reason for in- vestment in education. Approximately 22 percent of youth 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (age 15–24) were either economically inactive or unem- Age in years squared ployed in 2012, with the highest unemployment rates found among the educated population. Similarly, the unemploy- Higher education Upper secondary ment rate for the broader youth age group (age 15–35) is Lower secondary Completed primary higher than the general adult working age population (age Incomplete primary No education 15–64). For example, the unemployment rate for youth who Source: Estimates based on ELEP 2012. have completed TVET was 30.2 percent in 2012 compared to 16.8 percent in the adult population (Figure 5). The cor- responding figures for higher education attainment are 43.7 for youth and 17.1 percent for adults respectively. As Guinea tion’s significant role in poverty reduction is the direct linear strives to embark on an accelerated development path, its relationship between education and earnings. As educational ability to meet the demands of a diversified economy will be achievement increases, the likelihood of poverty declines. For partly determined by the quantity and quality of its trained example, in wage employment compared to no education lev- workforce. el, attainment of some primary education increases monthly The sector of employment varies by level of educational earnings by 37 percent, by 61 percent for primary completion, attainment for both youth and adults (Figure 6). In Guinea, by 88 percent for completed lower secondary, by 100 percent approximately 80 percent of individuals with no education for upper secondary completion, and by 136 percent for high- er education. Overall, for wage and household head’s educa- tion, a higher level of education seems to reward the highest incremental yields, while for average and median years of 14 (Lee and Psacharopoulos (1979), Baumol, Blackmann, and Wolff (1989) Figure 4:  Earning Incremental by Level of Education Compared to no Education Category for Employed Working Age Population (age 15–64) 180% 160% 155% 152% 149% 146% 140% 136% 124% 127% 120% 100% 103% 104% 100% 95% 88% 80% 74% 77% 61% 60% 54% 42% 40% 37% 33% 31% 20% 0% Wage employment HH head education level HH member average education level HH member median education level Incomplete Primary Completed Primary Completed Lower Secondary Completed Upper Secondary Higher Source: Estimates based on ELEP 2012. 6 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand Table 1: Social and Private Rates of Return to Schooling Expected Average Difference in Average years of Private per Public per Private Social life-time years of average number of schooling within student student rate of rate of Level of education earning schooling years of schooling the school level payment Payment returns returns Primary 11.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 605,866 351,222 10.3% 10.0% Lower Secondary 14.6 8.5 5.7 2.5 932,615 399,367 4.2% 4.1% Upper Secondary 15.9 11.3 2.8 2.3 1,046,179 429,007 3.2% 3.1% Post-Secondary 21.3 14.7 3.3 2.7 2,759,649 4,229,922 8.9% 7.5% Source: Estimate based on ELEP 2012 and Guinea Public Expenditure Review of the Education Sector (2014). Figure 5: Unemployment Rate for Youth and Adults, 2012 50 45 43.7 40 35 30.2 30 27.1 27.1 25 18.9 19.4 20 16.8 14.5 13.7 15 11.4 12.3 11.3 7.7 9.3 8.4 10 6.0 5 0 No education Incomplete Primary Completed Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary TVET Higher Education Guinea Youth (age 15–35) Adult (age 15–64) Source: ELEP (2012). Figure 6: Educational Sector Attainment by Sector of Employment, Youth and Adult Youth (age 15–35) Adult (age 15–64) Total 71.9 3.9 24.2 Total 70.1 4.2 25.7 Higher Ed 14.7 4.9 80.4 Higher Ed 12.2 7.2 80.6 TVET 9.1 10.9 80.0 TVET 10.6 12.0 77.4 Upper Sec 31.9 6.7 61.4 Upper Sec 31.1 6.7 62.2 Lower Sec 38.7 8.5 52.9 Lower Sec 38.6 9.3 52.1 Primary 54.2 5.2 40.6 Primary 52.5 6.4 41.1 Incomplete Pri 64.9 4.3 30.8 Incomplete Pri 62.0 4.7 33.3 No Education 80.7 3.3 16.0 No Education 78.7 3.4 17.9 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Agriculture Industry Services Source: ELEP (2012). were employed in the agriculture sector, irrespective of age. Income and its effects by economic sector As educational attainment increases, the share of employment in agriculture decreases and there is a proportional rise in Education is positively related to income, irrespective of age employment in the service sector. The highest share of em- or industry (Figure 7). In the agriculture, industry, and service ployment in the industry sector is for Guineans with a TVET sector, a person with even some primary education earns more level of education; however, overall industry employs the least than a person with no education. Across sectors, Guineas be- amount of population. tween the ages of 15 and 35 earned more than the ones between Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 7 Figure 7: Monthly Income by Economic Sector (GNF millions), Youth and Adult Agriculture Industry Services 1.94 1.95 3.0 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.55 1.65 1.44 2.35 1.55 1.5 2.5 1.49 1.33 1.6 1.32 2.17 1.45 1.41 1.4 1.33 1.98 1.27 1.27 2.0 1.21 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.15 1.02 1.48 0.9 0.86 1.44 1.42 0.83 1.32 1.5 1.32 0.9 1.24 1.25 0.73 1.3 0.69 0.69 1.17 1.15 1.05 0.8 0.58 0.97 0.57 0.52 0.52 0.49 0.47 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 No Education Incomplete Pri Primary Lower Sec Upper Sec TVET Higher Ed Total No Education Incomplete Pri Primary Lower Sec Upper Sec TVET Higher Ed Total No Education Incomplete Pri Primary Lower Sec Upper Sec TVET Higher Ed Total Youth (age 15–35) Adult (age 15–64) Source: ELEP, 2012. Figure 8: Household Income Quintiles by Region to be confined to traditional occupations, such as farming and commerce. Only 5.8 percent of women were active in industry 3,000,000 and mining, construction, services, and public administration as of 2012. (Note 2 describes in detail the differences in educa- 2,500,000 tion attainment by gender). 2,000,000 The income inequality across regions masks the extent of inequality within each region (Figure 8). A household in the 1,500,000 wealthiest quintile earns, depending on the region, between 7 and 1,000,000 25 times more than a household in the 1st—or poorest—quintile. N’zérékoré is the region with the least inequality, and Kankan 500,000 the region with the most: the richest and poorest rub shoulders. Low agricultural productivity is a major factor in poverty. This 0 boké conakry faranah kankan kindia labé mamou n'zérékoré is particularly striking in the case of Middle Guinea, in Mamou, p10 p25 p50 p75 p90 Labé, and Kankan, where nearly 10 percent of households live on less than 100,000 GNF (US$15) per month. Living standards Source: ELEP, 2012. are lowest in Middle Guinea, and unsurprisingly, higher in Con- akry and the mining regions of Boké, N’zérékoré, and Kankan. It is difficult to conclude, however, that the mineral deposits in the ages of 15 and 64. In the agriculture sector, the highest earn- the latter two areas are the source of their prosperity. Kankan is ers were youth with TVET degrees; higher education graduates unique in that the proportion of agricultural households there were the highest earners amongst adults, though the difference remains the same no matter which quintile is considered. Fi- in earnings between TVET and higher education graduates are nally, the affluent reside in Boké, Kankan, and Conakry; the top minimal. In the industry and service sectors, higher education quintile earns around US$283 per month. graduates earned the most. In industry, youth with higher ed- ucation degrees earned the most; in the service sector, adults 3. Production and Skill Needs of Firms with higher education degrees were the high earners. This section examines labor market needs, particularly in Determinants of Inequities in Education and Em- terms of skilled workers from the perspective of employers. ployment15 The characteristics of the employer survey are described be- low, followed by our findings. As the education system has only recently become accessible Firm characteristics: The survey covers the diversity of eco- to women in Guinea, their earning potential remains limit- nomic activities in the capital, where small businesses engaged ed. Women lag behind men both in literacy and economic ac- in handicrafts, manufacturing, or personal services operate tivity (74.5 percent versus 82.8 percent, respectively) and tend alongside larger companies. The median size of firms in the survey is fifteen. Nearly half of 15 The determinants of inequality in education and employment are gender the firms engaged in commerce employ less than five employ- and age, location and socio-economic status. ees, which explains their low weight in terms of jobs and sug- 8 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand gests that the sector is not modernized. In the services, industry, Figure 9: Education Level of Enterprise Directors and construction sectors, small businesses comprise 20 percent of firms. Public administration and public enterprises employ a 4.6% Services 4.6% 11.9% 7.9% 59.6% large number of people. In the agricultural sector, 66 percent of the enterprises have between 21 and 200 employees. Industry/Mines 22.8% 8.9% 21.5% 6.3% 31.6% Employer characteristics: In the employer section of the sur- 2.1% 5.3% vey, information is provided on the education level of enter- Education/Healthcare 6.3% 7.4% 71.6% prise directors. As mentioned previously, a high proportion 2.9% of university graduates find employment in the public sector Construction 5.9% 8.8% 5.9% 67.6% (93.3 percent), education, and healthcare (71.6 percent). Giv- en the relevance of the construction and business service sec- Commerce 12.9% 9.4% 24.7% 14.1% 37.6% tors to the Guinean economy, it is heartening to note that a 3.0% Agriculture 44.8% 19.4% 10.4% 22.4% high proportion of CEOs in this field hold university degrees (67.6 percent and 59.6 percent respectively) (Figure 9). It is Public Administration 6.7% 93.3% worrisome that only a third of the CEOs in commerce and in- dustry are university graduates, since the creation of high-val- 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ue-added businesses requires increasing the provision of high- % without diploma % primary % secondary er education programs in technological and scientific fields. % technical/professional % higher education Employee characteristics: Employees have significantly less Source: Employer Survey 2013. education and/or training compared to the firm directors, as reported by employers (Figure 10). With the exception of pub- lic administration and the education sector, a large proportion of employees are not university graduates. For instance, in the sectors, especially within the private sector (further discus- construction industry, more than 70 percent of employees have sion of employment sectors and skills is available in Note 4). not finished lower secondary, and only 15 percent have a high The employer portion of the survey also estimates the impor- school (Baccalauréat) diploma. In addition, the services sector, tance of part-time work: only 12 percent of jobs are part-time industry, and commerce are divided between low-skilled jobs in commerce, industry, and services. It is more common in (high school degree or less), representing about 60 percent of construction (28 percent), education, and health (30 percent). employees, qualified technicians (15 percent) and higher edu- Skills valued by employers: Employers most value non-cog- cation graduates. While it may be premature to conclude that nitive or personal skills in their employees (Figure 11).16 there is an imbalance between supply and demand for skilled Some of the non-cognitive skills include the ability to work labor, the high proportion of workers without qualifications in in teams or autonomously, organizational skills, and conflict areas such as construction and industry is unsustainable. The majority of surveyed university graduates are em- ployed in public administration, which is often perceived as 16 In order to obtain information regarding the needs and expectations of the only source of employment. Almost half of public sector employers in terms of employee characteristics and skills, the survey asked employees hold a technical higher education diploma, which employers to indicate the degree of importance they attach to different skills: one would expect to translate to a significant pay-off in other basic, specific and personal or also called non-cognitive. Figure 10: Employee Education Level 1% Services 8% 10% 8% 5% 15% 13% 17% 23% Industry/Mining 22% 4% 25% 8% 3% 10% 5% 11% 12% Education/Healthcare 1% 5% 9% 2% 12% 22% 14% 34% Construction 10% 5% 13% 15% 18% 38% 1% Commerce 24% 14% 10% 1% 16% 7% 11% 15% Agriculture 65% 3% 7% 1% 10% 3% 4% 7% 2% Administration 5% 2% 17% 19% 17% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% No Diploma Primary Lower Secondary General Secondary Professional Pre Secondary Post Baccalaureate 1st Cycle Higher Ed 2nd Cycle Higher Ed 3rd Cycle Higher Ed Source: Employee Survey 2013. Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 9 Figure 11: Key Basic Skills Required by Employers 1% 2% 2% 64% IT 7% 4% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 9% 4% Engineering/Technical Services 16% 3% 6% 19% 16% 4% 3% 19% 6% 1% Sales/Communication 9% 5% 6% 5% 13% 13% 25% 4% 13% 1% 2% 11% 2% Financial Management/Accounting 11% 6% 36% 15% 9% 5% 2% 1% 2% 10% 2% Administration/Secretariate 15% 7% 26% 8% 13% 6% 11% 2% 13% 1% Management 19% 4% 5% 18% 21% 5% 5% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Theoretical Knowledge Knowledge of the Literature Ability to Write Simple Calculation Analytical Skills Independent Work Ability to Communicate Negotiation/Con ict Resolution Team Work Organization/Management Computer Competency Source: Employee Survey 2013. Figure 12: Key Personal Skills Required by Employers likely to perform physical tasks. With these few exceptions, tasks depend little or not at all on the specific sector, which 0% points to the importance of quality general education. This IT 13% 14% 4% can also suggest a low degree of specialization within firms, 1% indicative of an economy that is still operating at a low level Engineering/Technical Services 19% 21% 7% 0% of productivity. 1% 0% Punctuality is the personal skill most valued by em- Sales/Communication 19% 13% 16% 5% ployers, which fits with employer reports of absenteeism 1% as the primary problem (Figure 12). In every sector, nearly Financial Management/Accounting 22% 14% 41% 40 percent list punctuality as the most important trait in an 0% employee, closely followed by commitment to work and hon- 0% Administration/Secretariate 30% 18% 11% 6% esty. Honesty, which is particularly important when dealing 2% with finances, is essential in accounting and sales. Management 40% 25% 17% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 4. Insights into the Labor Market Punctuality Willingness to travel Honesty In general, the education system is neither responsive to Presentability Physical Condition Responsibility to Family nor currently producing graduates equipped to adequately Source: Employer Survey, 2013. meet the needs of the labor market. Universities offer a pre- dominantly theoretical education, despite the fact that firms value experience and practical skills (see Note 3 for a detailed description of the current governance structure and what it resolution.17 Valued skills vary by profession; for instance, entails in higher education). For example, in the construc- Information Technology require computer skills, where- tion, industry, and service sectors, one in five firms states that as accounting requires arithmetic skills. The tasks assigned it cannot find the type of qualifications needed, leading to a to employees depend significantly on education levels, with substantial proportion of vacancies (Figure 13). To increase more highly educated employees also being the most versatile. the relevance of the education system to the labor market, the Employees who did not attend school are generally excluded agriculture, construction, and mining industries recommend from cognitive tasks, including even simple administrative ac- a focus on the entire education system. Employers in the ag- tivities such as writing bills or calculating prices, and are more ricultural sector18 in particular are seeking additional effort from universities and TVET institutions to attract more edu- cated youth to agriculture and agribusiness. 17 The range of skills analyzed goes beyond the scope of the knowledge ac- quired during schooling. It is important to note the high rate of non-response, 40 percent on average for all categories and all types of skills. The rate is par- ticularly high for computer skills indicating a lack of knowledge of the labor 18 More than 60 percent of agricultural enterprises would like to invest in force by the business owners. train 10 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand Figure 13: Lack of Qualified Skills and Positions by Sector Figure 14: Waiting Time Before Initial Employment 25% 23.5% 21.9% 3rd Cycle Higher Ed 31% 36% 17% 8% 8% 20.3% 20% 2nd Cycle Higher Ed 22% 42% 19% 8% 9% 15% 14.7% 15.8% 14.7% 13.3% 29% 35% 21% 6% 9% 11.9% 1st Cycle Higher Ed 10% 9.4% 6.7% 7.1% Post Baccalaureate 19% 37% 22% 8% 13% 6.0% 5% 3.0% 1.3% Professional Pre Secondary 30% 21% 16% 19% 14% 0% Administration Agriculture Commerce Construction Education/ Industry/ Services Gen Secondary 29% 26% 13% 8% 25% Healthcare Mining Lower Sec 25% 24% 16% 3% 33% Quali cations not available Posts un lled 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Employer Survey, 2013. Prior to completion < 1 yr 1–2 yrs 2–3 yrs > 3 yrs Source: Employer Survey, 2013. The school to work transition offers further insight into the extent of the training-labor market absorption mis- match. Graduates of longer-term programs enter the job market earlier than those completing short programs, but Figure 15: Access to Employment as Reported by Employees there is no distinction between the different levels of pro- grams. 15 percent of graduates of university programs experi- Services 17.4% 12.7% 33.5% 21.6% 14.8% ence a 2-year lag between graduation and their first job, com- Industry/Mining 13.8% 14.7% 43.3% 14.3% 13.8% pared to about 35 percent for employees who have completed short training programs.19 Graduates of short vocational Education/Healthcare 21.0% 11.1% 33.6% 21.8% 12.6% courses (BEP, CAP, etc.) do not find jobs more quickly than Construction 16.7% 15.4% 47.4% 15.4% 5.1% lower secondary and high school graduates (Figure 14). This clearly points to the inadequacy of skills taught, since these Commerce 15.6% 25.0% 39.1% 11.5% 8.9% study programs are intended to train students in a trade or 2.3% 0.6% Agriculture 12.5% 13.2% 71.4% profession. One of Guinea’s major challenges over the next few years will be to ensure that these programs confer a pref- Administration 16.7% 4.8% 28.6% 21.4% 28.6% erential employment status compared to a basic, general edu- cation.20 However, at this time, no clear paths to achieve this 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% goal have been identified. Friends Family Relationships Other Relatives Ad Other Recruitment is conducted primarily through social net- Source: Employer Survey, 2013. works (Figure 15). With the exception of agriculture, employ- ees in every sector obtained their jobs through acquaintances, with less than 20 percent of jobs obtained through job adver- tisements. Approximately 15 percent of employees report that portant consequences for equity and efficiency. The import- they are related to the head of the enterprise in which they ant prevalence of unsolicited job applications and internal ad- work. In this context, there is little doubt that an employee’s vertising of openings underscores the insignificance of both education or training is not the central element in hiring deci- the labor market forces and the applicant qualifications in hir- sions. Finally, between 30 percent of hires in services and ed- ing decisions. Compared to a private recruiting firm, the na- ucation and over 40 percent of hires in services, industry, and tional employment agency (Agence Guineenne pour l’Emploi, construction result from personal relationships. This greatly AGUIPE)) is still at a nascent stage in its role of matching the reduces hiring possibilities for firms, employment possibilities unemployed with job opportunities. for people in the workforce, and incentives to pursue long- Despite the shortcomings described above, Guinean term, quality studies. firms in different sectors display different patterns in their The informality of the labor market, aggravated by the reporting of recruitment challenges. The public sector is preference for hiring through personal networks, has im- virtually exempt from such problems, regardless of the type of work. For other sectors, agriculture aside, and regardless of the type of employment, recruitment difficulties are felt 19 The probability varies little within each of these two categories. most acutely in filling management and finance positions. 20 We also note that regardless of training, almost a quarter of people are 20 to 30 percent of firms report experiencing difficulty in re- offered a job before the end of their studies. This phenomenon certainly over- cruiting directors or managers and accountants. In addition, laps several different realities. On one hand it can attest to the good func- approximately 15 percent of trading companies face recruit- tioning of the labor market if it matches the case where companies snatch up students with attractive qualifications; on the other hand, it may mean that the ment difficulties in sales, and a similar proportion of firms level of education does not play a major role and that individuals are bound to in industry and mining have problems recruiting engineers work in the family business. and skilled labor. Agriculture, consisting mainly of coopera- Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 11 Figure 16: Share of Enrollment by Discipline 3.1% 1.2% 1.0% 7.0% 2011 27.5% 13.6% 21.3% 14.5% 7.3% 3.6% 3.6% 1.3% 3.0% 7.6% 2009 21.8% 12.6% 17.6% 20.1% 10.6% 1.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Education Arts and Humanities Law and Political Science Economics and Management Information and Communication Sciences Science and Technology Agronomy and Veterinary Sciences Geology Environmental Science Medicine, Pharmacy, and Dental Source: EMIS data, Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. tives, is experiencing serious difficulties in recruiting work- sources.21 Outside of the mining sector, partnerships with en- ers in all areas. This can be interpreted primarily as a sign terprises are limited. of a traditional sector that has not modernized its business, Higher education enrollment has increased tenfold in in which activities such as administration, management, the past decade, but there remains a mismatch between the accounting, engineering, and communication are almost degrees obtained and the needs of the labor market. A gen- non-existent. Agriculture appears to be a potential source erous scholarship system awards student aid to nearly four of of jobs, provided it improves its attractiveness in terms of five students, enabling the proliferation of higher education salaries and work sites. students (further discussion of the scholarship issue can be found in note 4). Students are not graduating in disciplines Quality of the Education System that are in demand in the labor market (Figure 16). In 2011, more than 27.5 percent of students were enrolled in the hu- The surveyed firms hold contrasting views of educational manities and social sciences, compared to only 14.5 percent in quality. Firms have a positive opinion of the best degree pro- the technical sciences. Meanwhile, geological sciences, which grams, but negative perceptions of secondary education. Em- will play in crucial role in the emerging economy, attract just ployers discredit the educational qualifications of employees 1 percent of students. Private education dominates the legal, who have not been able to access university (or equivalent) management, communication, and information technology education. The majority (about 60 percent) of employers how- fields. More details will be covered in the education system ever do not express an opinion about the quality of education, diagnostic and financing notes (notes 2 and 4 in the series re- but share the view that most employees must be trained im- spectively). mediately after hiring. This reveals either an alarming disin- Employees often supplement their initial academic train- terest among employers regarding the education system, or ing with additional education programs. Approximately alternatively, a feeling of resignation towards the current state 70 percent of public sector workers, 40 percent of employees of affairs. There is also a shift in the responsibility for training in construction, education and services, and 30 percent of em- from the school system to individual firms. ployees in industry and commerce pursue additional training Primary and secondary education enrollment growth programs. A significant proportion of these workers partic- registered in the early 2000s has plateaued since 2007. En- ipate in more than one continuous education program. On rollment rates are high in cities but remain very low in ru- average, employees spend 18 months on additional training; ral areas. In 2012, the average age of a primary school pupil this figure is relatively consistent across sectors. Individual/ was 10.2 years 16.5 years for a lower secondary student, and family resources are the primary funding source for employ- 20 years for a high school student. The examination pass rate ees participating in training, although firms do provide some is low. In 2010, it was 61 percent for primary, 36 percent for assistance. With the exception of agriculture, employees are lower secondary and 38 percent for high school. more likely to have their training funded by firms rather than Guinea’s Technical and Vocational Education and Train- receiving scholarships. Firms pay for additional training for ing (TVET) sector is not yet fully developed. As of 2010, 82 about 30 percent of employees in services and public adminis- schools were operating in the country, including paramedical tration, 25 percent in industry, 17 percent in construction, and and teacher training institutions. The schools are concentrat- 15 percent in commerce. ed in urban areas with 36 schools alone being located in the In order to better align university and industry and encour- capital city of Conakry. Total enrollment in 2010 was 28,400, age them to jointly develop relevant skills programs, Guin- with approximately 10,000 of these students enrolled in the paramedical and teacher training institutions. TVET is only offered at the secondary and higher education levels. The development of the sector has been impeded by a lack of re- 21 Medium Term Expenditure Framework, 2013–15 12 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand ea might explore mechanisms such as Ireland’s Technology Policy Recommendations Transfer Initiative, described in Box 1 below. The business climate in Guinea needs to be improved, par- ticularly in the areas of infrastructure and access to electric- 5. Conclusions and Recommendations ity. In order to attract and sustain foreign investment while the private sector matures, entrepreneurship is an avenue to The deficiencies in Guinea’s human capital development consider to boost employment. For the latter to occur, the have hampered the development of its labor market. A large government needs to make significant investments in skills section of the population has not advanced beyond primary development. school, and an even lesser minority has received either tech- Develop and improve skills relevant programs aligned nical or general higher education. Most importantly, a large with employer demand: The government should as a prior- proportion has never attended school. Low literacy and ed- ity, tackle the development and improvement of short-term ucation are more common among women, rural population, technical programs in key economic sectors, namely con- and groups from lower socioeconomic status. Meanwhile, struction, energy, mining, hospitality, and transportation. The the educational system produces graduates lacking the skills government must be more active in encouraging industrial needed by the labor market. Higher education graduates have and services enterprises, as well as agricultural cooperatives, higher unemployment rates than graduates with lower levels to participate. It must organize and formalize the provision of education. In addition, there is an urgent need for voca- of training around partnerships and existing structures and tional training in agriculture, construction, and industry and the needs of the economy. This can occur through incentive mining. A large proportion of firms consider in-house train- programs or co-financing arrangements, and its success will ing necessary for the graduates they do hire. These issues com- depend largely on the development of relevant and mutually pound Guinea’s already complex business environment due to beneficial partnerships. low productivity, competitiveness, efficiency, and under-de- Industries can partner with schools and create curricula, veloped infrastructure. provide training, or establish dual degrees to fulfill their labor market needs. Currently, the institution-employer dialogue remains extremely limited: program offerings are not based on Box 1:  Creating University-Industry Links in Ireland concrete needs expressed by employers, resulting in a surplus of students in fields with few opportunities, and a shortage in Creating university—industry links in Ireland those key for Guinea’s economic development. The Technology Transfer Initiative (TTI) is an innovative Facilitate intermediaries to link skills profiles with jobs: support structure for small and medium enterprises in some The previous section illustrates a number of unfilled jobs in regions of Ireland. It emerged from an alliance of three re- critical sectors. The national employment agency has gradu- gional universities. The TTI is co-funded by them and the ally moved into an intermediary role to link the unemployed Enterprise Ireland, a state development agency focused on to jobs. The Stepping Up Skills project supported by the Bank developing industry. will reinforce this role by connecting graduates with formal The role of the TTI is to act as a gateway for companies by opportunities in high-growth sectors and by creating a one- facilitating access to the expertise and resources of the three stop platform for youth to gain access to employment oppor- universities. Its core aim is to encourage and assist Irish tunities (i.e. counseling, training, internships or jobs). companies to become more innovative and thus more com- Reform labor market access: Labor market access is re- petitive and profitable. Essentially, the TTI aims to enhance stricted to the elite, since most hiring takes place through technology transfer on an inter industry and interregional social and informal networks. Social status is an important basis, increase innovation through research and develop- determinant of employment: children of senior manag- ment, and act as a single point of contact between expertise ers and members of the liberal professions are much more in the participating universities and local industry. likely to be employed than children of civil servants and la- Companies request visits from TTI personnel who help borers. It is therefore key for institutions and employers to identify potential research projects and topics to be ad- collaborate more closely to connect graduates directly with dressed at specialist seminars with staff at universities. opportunities and give them a chance to earn employment The TTI also organizes various innovation clubs between through merit, rather than connections. Setting up a labor industry and academics. Companies meet regularly to dis- market information system for transparent information on cuss, present, and brainstorm new research areas, to share job openings and required skills profiles is also an import- experience in new innovation, and to meet with academic ant next step that can contribute to behavior changes and researchers. practices. Feedback on the TTI from industry representatives sug- Reduce geographical inequities: Ensure school and labor gests that it has been effective in giving small and medium market reform and adequate distribution of training pro- enterprises access to in-depth knowledge of universities and grams throughout the country. It is essential to reduce dis- that it has given university researchers a more practical look parities between rural and urban areas. Rural residents are at the needs of industry. short-changed by the lack of opportunities in training and employment, along with the overall low quality of education Source: Technology Transfer Initiative; see http://www.biotechnologyire- quality. The concentration of vocational training in Conakry land.com/pooled/profiles/BF_COMP/view.asp?Q=BF_COMP_9249 undercuts the economic development of other regions, where Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 13 transport infrastructure is inadequate, limiting the mobility of avenue tried out in other countries. For instance, through Bolsa both workers and future apprentices. Familia in Brazil, poor families with children in school receive Expand education opportunities for the poor and girls. an average of R$70.00 (about US$35) in direct transfers. In re- More investments are necessary for increasing the supply of turn, they commit to keeping their children in school and tak- school in remote and poor areas, and for developing target- ing them for regular health checks. This produces two important ed, demand-side interventions to attract the poor and girls to results: helping to reduce current poverty, and getting families school and keep them in school. To attract and retain girls in to invest in their children, thus breaking the cycle of intergen- school, it is important to ensure that schools are safe/free from erational transmission and reducing future poverty. This type violence. Cash transfers in the case of poverty could be another of approach could be effective for improving equity in Guinea. 14 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand References Baumol, W.J., S.A.B. Blackman, and E.N. Wolff. 1989. WEF. 2013. Global Competitiveness Report 2013–14. World Productivity and American Leadership: The Long View. Economic Forum: Geneva. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA. World Bank. 2013. Employer Survey in Guinea. Washington, Lee, H., and G. Psacharopoulos. 1979. “International DC: World Bank. Comparisons of Educational and Economic Indicators, . 2013. Country Partnership Strategy for Guinea. Revisited,” World Development, 7(11–12): 995-1004. Washington, DC: World Bank. Mamedov, V. 2003. Catalogue des gisements et indices de . 2014. Doing Business Report. Washington, DC: minéralisation bauxitique en République de Guinée. World Bank. Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand | 15 Annex I: Employer Survey Methodology In the annex, we provide technical details on the employer • How can we use the education system to improve the rele- survey, conducted jointly by the World Bank and the Govern- vance and quality of the training opportunities so that the ment of Guinea. skills need of the labor market can be met? Scope of the Employer Survey Data Collection Instruments The employer survey collected data from firms in the capital city of Conakry; Conakry is the place of convergence for both Two questionnaires were used: (1) a survey that was sent out the graduates and the labor force. to firms to the human resource director or CEOs to obtain The overall objective of the survey was to gather data—quanti- information on the firm; and (2) direct interviews with firm tative and qualitative—on the labor market and the way the labor employees selected randomly. market is viewed by graduates, academic institutions and firms. The survey aimed to determine the adequacy between training Sample Size and employment, identify the specifics of the labor market and determine the contribution of formal education (be it training The employer survey targeted employers in the formal and in- received or level of education attained). It served as a basis for formal sectors in the Conakry region. To this sample, a few determining the needs for capacity building and document the groups in the agricultural sector located less than 200 km quality of technical and professional training programs. from Conakry were added. The employers were selected based The survey aimed to determine the mismatch between ed- on the indicators relating to the employability of graduates, ucation and employment in the labor market and also investi- the expected structure of the distribution of employers and gate the quality of human capital, without which no program precision. of reform and modernization can occur. The theoretical sample size was obtained by considering a The survey collected data from employers in both the for- margin of error ε = 0.05 for a confidence level of 95%. These mal and informal sector. Specific indicators are: considerations led to the selection with a proportion of esti- mated φ = 0.5 employer, a relatively large theoretical size. The- • The skills and qualifications available in the Guinean labor oretical number required for the collection at the employers market; in the region of Conakry is 337 for a margin of error of 5%. Applying the same precision to agricultural groups, the sam- • The percentage of employees with higher education and/or ple has theoretically 84 agricultural groups. There were adjust- TVET as reported by employers; ments made to the sample size given the estimated response • The skilled labor needs in the workforce; rate of 80 percent. The expected response rate was 95 percent for the farm groups. The adjusted sample size is 422 for busi- • Employer’s perceptions of employees; nesses and 88 for agricultural groups coming up to a total of • The expectation that employers have of employees; 510 employers. 16 | Skills in Guinea: Supply and Demand