83732 GLOBAL ECONOMIC October PROSPECTS 2013 COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK The World Bank Table of Contents Overview …………………………………………………………………………...…..…… 1 Crude Oil ……………….………………….………………………………...……………... 3 Metals ………………………………………………………………………...…………..…. 6 Precious Metals ………………………………………………………………………….... 7 Fertilizers ………………………………………………………………………….………... 7 Agriculture …………………………………………………………………………………. 8 List of Price and Forecast Tables Table A1 - Commodity Price Data, p. 11 Table A2 - Commodity Prices and Price Forecast in Nominal US Dollars, p. 13 Table A3 - Commodity Prices and Price Forecast in Real 2010 US Dollars, p. 14 Table A4 - World Bank Indices of Commodity Prices and Inflation, 2010=100, p. 15 Authors John Baffes Damir Ćosić Development Prospects Group Development Prospects Group The World Bank The World Bank 1818 H St, N 1818 H St, NW Washington DC 20433 Washington DC 20433 Tel: +1(202) 458-1880 Tel: +1(202) 473-3867 jbaffes@worldbank.org dcosic@worldbank.org Commodity Markets Outlook is published four times a year in January, April, July and October. The report includes detailed market analysis for most primary commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. It also includes historical and recent price data as well as price forecasts going up to 2025. Separately, commodity price data are also published at the beginning of each month. The report and data can be accessed at www.worldbank.org/prospects/commodities GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Overview There are a number of risks to the baseline fore- casts. Downside risks include weak oil demand if growth prospects in emerging economies (where Crude oil prices averaged $107/bbl during 2013Q3, most of the demand growth is taking place) deteri- up 2 percent since 2013Q2 and 4 percent higher orate sharply. Over the long term, oil demand than a year ago. Spillover fears of Syria’s conflict to could be dampened further if substitution between the Gulf and large output reductions by Iraq and crude oil and natural gas intensifies. On the upside, Libya (almost 1 mb/d each) weighed in. The de- a major oil supply disruption in the Gulf due to the cline in metal prices was halted during 2013Q3 but ongoing conflict could add $50 or more to the the index is down 11 percent since 2013Q1 on new price of oil. However, the severity of the outcome mine supplies and expectations of slower demand depends on numerous factors, including the dura- growth by China (figure 1). Food prices continued tion of the disruption, policy actions regarding their weakness, down 4 percent from 2013Q2 and emergency oil reserves, demand curtailment, and 11 percent lower than a year ago, as better supply more importantly, OPEC’s response. conditions will bring stocks closer to historical lev- els (figure 2). A key source of uncertainty in the medium- and long-term outlook is how OPEC (notably, Saudi In the baseline scenario, which assumes no macro- Arabia) reacts to changing global demand and non- economic shocks or supply disruptions, oil prices OPEC supply conditions. Since 2004, when crude are expected to average $105/bbl in 2013, identical oil prices started rising, OPEC has responded to to the 2012 average (table 1). Agricultural prices are subsequent price weakness by cutting supply. It has projected to decline 7.8 percent in 2013 under the also increased supplies when prices go above the assumption that the improved crop conditions al- $100-110/bbl range—as it did earlier this year fol- ready in place will continue. Specifically, prices of lowing output reductions by Libya and Iraq. How- food, beverages, and raw materials are expected to ever, as non-OPEC supplies continue to come on drop by 7.6, 10.9, and 6.9 percent, respectively. stream and substitution by natural gas increases, Metal prices will fall about 8 percent due to abun- this approach may not be sustainable. dant supplies and weakening demand. Fertilizer prices are expected to decline more than 17 per- OPEC’s spare capacity exceeded 5 mb/d in Sep- cent, as new plants in the US are coming on tember, the first time since March 2011. This is stream, in turn a response to low natural gas prices. almost 40 percent higher than the 2012 average but Precious metals prices are expected to drop almost only marginally higher than the average of the past 20 percent as institutional investors increasingly decade—it had dropped below 2 mb/d in the mid- consider them less attractive “safe haven” alterna- dle of 2008, when oil prices reached $140/bbl. tives, in addition to weakening physical demand. OECD inventories averaged 2.7 mb/d during Figure 1 Commodity price indexes Figure 2 Food price indexes Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. 1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Table 1 Nominal price indexes, actual and forecasts (2010 = 100) ACTUAL FORECAST CHANGE (%) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Energy 129 80 100 129 128 128 129 -0.9 0.7 0.8 Non-Energy 106 83 100 120 110 100 100 -8.6 -8.3 -0.2 Metals 102 68 100 113 96 88 90 -15.3 -8.0 1.5 Agriculture 102 89 100 122 114 106 105 -5.8 -7.8 -0.8 Food 111 93 100 123 124 115 112 1.6 -7.6 -2.8 Grains 131 99 100 138 141 126 125 2.3 -10.6 -1.4 Fats and oils 114 90 100 121 126 115 110 4.6 -8.7 -4.6 Other food 90 90 100 111 107 105 103 -3.5 -2.1 -1.7 Beverages 84 86 100 116 93 83 84 -20.1 -10.9 1.6 Raw Materials 90 83 100 122 101 94 98 -17.0 -6.9 4.1 Fertilizers 202 105 100 143 138 114 112 -3.5 -17.3 -1.7 Precious metals 73 78 100 136 138 112 111 1.6 -19.2 -1.0 Memorandum items Crude oil ($/bbl) 97 62 79 104 105 105 106 1.0 0.0 0.7 Gold ($/toz) 872 973 1,225 1,569 1,670 1,380 1,360 6.4 -17.3 -1.4 Source: World Bank. 2013Q3, remarkably similar to last quarter’s aver- ture on September 11, 2013, the global maize mar- age but slightly lower than a year ago. ket will be better supplied in the upcoming 2013/14 season (production and stocks up 12 and Price risks on metals depend on new supplies com- 24 percent, respectively). Wheat will improve as ing on stream, growth of China’s economy, and to well (production up 8 percent this season), though a lesser extent public stockholding. Metal prices not as well supplied by historical standards. Thus, have declined almost 30 percent since their early any adverse weather event could induce sharp in- 2011 highs. The weakness reflects both moderate creases in wheat prices—as it happened in 2012 demand growth and strong supply response, the when maize prices rallied almost 40 percent in less latter a result of increased investments of the past than two months. Price risks for rice are on the few years, induced by high prices. For some metals, downside, especially in view of the large public stocks have eased in 2013Q3, but remain elevated stocks held by Thailand. Indeed, when the Thai by historical standards. For example, copper and government announced the release of stocks, prices nickel stocks at the major metals exchanges are up came under pressure—they dropped 20 percent in 67 and 85 percent respectively in 2013Q3 since a 4 months to average less than $450/ton in Septem- year ago. Aluminum stocks, which have been rising ber, a 3-year low. Edible oil and oilseed markets since end-2008, increased just 2.4 during the same also have limited upside price risks, due to well period, but they remain near their 10-year peaks. supplied oilseed (mostly soybeans in South Ameri- ca) and edible oil (primarily palm oil in East Asia) The prospects for the metal market depend im- markets. Global output of major edible oils are portantly on Chinese demand, as the country ac- expected to reach a record 195 million tons during counts for 45 percent of global metal consumption. 2013/14, up from last season’s 187 million tons. However, if robust supply trends continue and weaker-than-anticipated demand growth materializ- The risk of trade policy changes impacting agricul- es, metal prices could follow a path considerably tural prices appears to be low as evidenced by the lower than the baseline presented in this outlook, virtual absence of export restrictions (in 2011 and with significant consequences for metal exporters 2012), despite sharp increases in grain prices. Final- (and benefits for importers). ly, production of biofuels is likely to experience a third year with little (or no) growth as policy mak- In agricultural commodity markets, the key risk is ers increasingly realize that the environmental and weather. According to global crop outlook assess- energy independence benefits from biofuels are not ment released by the U.S. Department of Agricul- as large as initially stated. 2 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Energy Figure 3 Oil prices and OECD oil stocks After their post-financial crisis recovery, crude oil prices have fluctuated within a remarkably tight band around $105/bbl (figure 3). Fluctuations have been driven mainly by geopolitical concerns (Egypt and more recently Syria) and output disruptions (Iraq and Libya) on the supply side, and European debt issues along with changing developing-country growth prospects on the demand side. The recent uptick in oil prices reflected production declines by Libya and Iraq, a loss of 1 mb/d each and, less so, fears that the Syrian conflict may spread to the Gulf and cause major disruption in oil supplies. Source: World Bank, International Energy Agency (IEA). Recent Developments Figure 4 Brent/WTI price differential Developments in the oil market have been marked by the large supplies of Canadian crude oil (especially from tar sands) to the United States which, combined with rapidly rising U.S. shale liq- uids production, have contributed to a build-up of stocks at a time when U.S. oil consumption is mod- erating and natural gas supplies are increasing rap- idly. The stock build-up caused West Texas Inter- mediate (WTI, the U.S. mid-continent price) to diverge from Brent (the international marker). The Brent-WTI spread narrowed in recent months as new capacity has allowed crude stocks to decline (figure 4). As construction of the Keystone pipeline is about to be completed, the spread is likely to be Source: World Bank. eliminated, perhaps in early 2014. Figure 5 The decline in non-OPEC oil output growth evi- US crude oil production dent in 2011 has been reversed. Non-OPEC pro- ducers added 0.7 mb/d to global supplies in 2012 and an additional 0.9 mb/d during 2013Q1-Q3, mainly reflecting earlier large-scale investment. In the United States, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have added more than 1.5 mb/d to glob- al crude oil supplies just in the past two years. Cur- rently, the U.S. states of North Dakota and Texas, where most of shale oil production takes place, account for almost half of the total U.S. crude oil supplies, up from 25 percent three years ago (figure 5). Indeed, the IEA projects that the surging North America crude oil output could add almost 5 mb/d to the global oil supplies by 2018 (2.3 mb/d from the U.S. “light tight oil” and 1.3 mb/d from Cana- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. da’s oil tar sands.) 3 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook A significant reduction in oil supplies by Iraq and Figure 6 OPEC spare capacity Libya earlier in the summer (estimated at 1 mb/d each) was balanced by Saudi increase, thus causing only a marginal reduction by OPEC—it averaged 37 mb/d in 2013Q3, down from 37.2 mb/d in the previous quarter. Yet, this output is still 10 mb/d higher than in 2002Q2, OPEC’s lowest producing quarter in recent history, and well above the 30 mb/d quota. The net growth in OPEC oil production reduced spare capacity among its member countries consid- erably, from 6.3 mb/d in 2009Q4 to 3.2 mb/d in 2012Q2 (figure 6). Yet, the downward trend has been reversed since 2012Q1 with spare capacity Source: IEA. exceeding 5 mb/d in September, the first time since March 2011. The Saudi government has Figure 7 promised to keep the global market well sup- World oil demand growth plied—and has the ability to do so—but also deems $100-110/bbl range to be a fair price. Ac- cording to the IEA, spare capacity in the global oil market may exceed 7 mb/d in 2014, almost three times higher than the 1.5-3.0 mb/d range observed between 2004 and 2008. Spare capacity should then begin to decline by 2016 as production in the Unit- ed States slows while demand growth remains firm. World demand increased by 1.25 mb/d in 2013Q3 (y/y) with all growth coming from non-OECD countries, 0.4 mb/d from China and 0.9 mb/d by the remaining non-OECD countries (figure 7). De- mand was reduced marginally by OECD countries, consistent with the patterns of the past few years— Source: World Bank, IEA. demand in OECD countries has fallen by 5 mb/d, or 8 percent, from its 2005 peak. Non-OECD de- Figure 8 mand remains robust. In fact, in 2013Q3 non- Global crude oil consumption OECD economies consumed as much oil as OECD ones, for the first time in history (figure 8). Outlook and Risks Nominal oil prices are expected to average $105/ bbl during 2013 (identical to the 2012 average) and increase to $106/bbl in 2014. The marginal in- crease in 2014 reflects the higher price level to- wards the end of 2013, though prices are expected to be moderating from current levels. Over the longer term, prices in real terms are expected to fall, due to several reasons, including growing sup- plies of conventional and (especially) unconven- Source: IEA. tional oil, efficiency gains, and substitution away 4 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook from oil. The assumptions underpinning these pro- jections reflect the upper-end cost of developing Figure 9 Global crude oil production additional oil capacity from Canadian oil sands, currently estimated by the industry to be approxi- mately $80/bbl in constant 2013 dollars. While it is expected that OPEC will continue to limit produc- tion to keep prices relatively high, the organization is also sensitive to allowing prices to rise too high, for fear of inducing innovations that would funda- mentally alter the long-term path of oil prices. World demand for crude oil is expected to grow at less than 1.5 percent annually over the projection period, with all the growth coming from non- OECD countries, as has been the case in recent years (figure 8). Growth in oil consumption among Source: International Energy Agency (IEA). OECD countries is expected to continue to be subdued by slow economic growth and efficiency Figure 10 Energy prices improvements in vehicle transport induced by high prices—including a gradual switch to hybrid, natu- ral gas, and electrically powered transport. Pressure to reduce emissions due to environmental concerns is expected to further dampen oil demand growth at the global level. Growth in oil consumption in developing countries, on the other hand, is ex- pected to remain relatively strong in the near and medium term. In the longer-term, however, it is expected to moderate as the share of low-energy using services in these economies grow, subsidies are phased out, and (as noted above) other fuels become incorporated into the energy mix. On the supply side, non-OPEC oil production is expected to continue its upward climb, as high Source: World Bank, IEA. prices have prompted increased use of innovative exploration techniques (including deep-water off- Figure 11 shore drilling and extraction of shale liquids) and Natural gas prices the implementation of new extractive technologies to increase the output from existing wells (figure 9). Thus, production increases in Brazil, the Caspian Sea, West Africa, and North America will more than offset declines in mature oil-producing areas. Last, prices of U.S. natural gas and coal are ex- pected to remain low relative to crude oil (figure 10) as well as European and Japanese natural gas prices (figure 11). Some convergence in prices is expected to take place over the longer term but its speed will depend on several factors, including the development of unconventional oil supplies out- side the U.S., the construction of LNG facilities and gas pipelines, relocation of energy intensive Source: IEA. industries, substitution by coal, and policies. 5 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Metals of 2013 has been broad-based. Prices declined 8.5 percent, 9.5 percent, 10.1 percent, 15.6 percent and 20.9 percent for lead, zinc, copper, aluminum and Following the collapse in metal prices in the wake nickel respectively. One exception to this trend is of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, prices re- tin whose price decline only marginally in 2013 gained strength and increased almost continuously. (down 0.6 percent) and has recorded consecutive The World Bank metals price index reached a new monthly increases in August and September. high of 229 (2005 = 100) in February 2011, up 164 percent since its December 2008 low (figure 12). The reason for tin’s outperformance is that Indo- This increase, together with the sustained increases nesia, the world’s second largest tin producer and prior to the financial crisis, generated large new largest exporter, has introduced new purity regula- investments inducing a strong supply response. tions and requirements of trading of all exports through a local exchange. This has led to a 92 per- Most of the additional metal supply went to meet cent (y/y) fall in exports in September according to demand from China, whose consumption share of preliminary data from Indonesia’s trade ministry. world refined metals reached 44.2 percent at the Stocks of tin outside of Indonesia correspond to 1- end of 2012, up from 42 percent in the previous 2 months of global consumption. However, should year (figure 13). Despite strong demand growth, the current situation persist, both tin consumers metal prices have weakened since 2011. Although and Indonesian producers would be hurt as the the decline in prices was halted during 2013Q3— latter have already furloughed workers. down just 0.4 percent from preceding quarter—the overall index is down 11 percent since the begin- Although global stocks of metals at major exchang- ning of 2013. The declines in industrial metals es have declined (down 6 percent during 2013Q3), along with an even sharper decline in precious met- they are considered elevated by historical standards. al prices, has prompted economists and analysts to For example, copper and nickel stocks at the major argue that that the so-called commodity super cycle metals exchanges are up 67 and 85 percent respec- may be coming to an end. tively in 2013Q3 since a year ago. Aluminum stocks, which have been rising since end-2008, in- The support in metal prices in 2013Q3 reflects im- creased just 2.4 during the same period, but they proving global manufacturing activity and the re- remain near their 10-year peaks. bound of imports by China. For example, Chinese imports in July 2013 of copper, iron ore, and nick- Metal prices are expected to decline 8 percent in el, grew by double digits on year-on-year basis— 2013 due to abundant supplies and weakening de- but have since moderated. mand. Most price risks are on the downside and depend mostly on the path of the Chinese econo- The weakening in metals prices during the first half my. Figure 12 Metal prices Figure 13 Consumption of key metals Source: World Bank. Source: World Bureau of Metal Statistics. 6 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Precious Metals Fertilizers Following 18 months of relative stability, prices of Fertilizer prices, a key input to the production of precious metals declined sharply during 2013. The most agricultural commodities especially grains and World Bank’s precious metals price index declined oilseeds, experienced a five-fold increase between 22 percent in the past nine months (figure 14). The 2003 and 2008, the largest increase among all key decline marked a reversal of 11 straight years of commodity groups (figure 15). In addition to increasing precious metal prices and reflects chang- strong demand, the price hikes reflect increases in ing perceptions of global risk, given gold’s status as energy prices, especially natural gas—some fertiliz- a “safe-haven” asset. However, expectations of ers are made directly out of natural gas. Indeed, normalization in U.S. monetary policy have trig- fertilizer prices are now three times higher than a gered a rush out of the gold exchange-traded funds, decade ago, remarkably similar to the three-fold the holdings of which are down 25 percent for the increase in energy prices. Recently, the upswing in year. In contrast, holdings of silver and platinum fertilizer prices has been easing. The World Bank’s (where physical demand is more important) were fertilizer price index declined 21 percent by up by 6 and 53 percent, respectively. 2013Q3 on top of the 3 percent decline in 2012. The declines were more pronounced in urea and The loss of gold’s “safe-haven” appeal has been phosphate, down 20 and 30 percent respectively. manifested in the on-going U.S. debt ceiling brink- manship where, despite the possibility of default by The recent price declines appear to have induced the U.S. government, gold prices declined (down changes in the global fertilizer market. Traditional- 3.5 percent in one month to October 15). Yet, dur- ly, fertilizer companies have exported their prod- ing similar negotiations over the debt ceiling in ucts via three marketing organizations that negoti- 2011, gold recorded a 10 percent increase in the ated annual contracts with buyers. However, in July month prior to the debt ceiling deadline. 2013 the potash cartel between Russian and Bela- rusian companies (world’s two largest producers of The precious metals price index is expected to de- potash) broke up, followed shortly thereafter by cline 20 percent in 2013 (with gold, silver, and plat- the breakup of the 40-year-old North American inum down by 17, 29, and 5 percent, respectively). Phosphate Chemicals Export Association. Most risks are on the downside due to the tapering of bond purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Fertilizer prices are expected to ease considerably likely increases in interest rates. Moreover, India’s in the medium term—more than 17 percent in restrictions on gold imports to curb its current ac- 2013 and another 5 percent in the two years there- count deficit may put additional downward pres- after—reflecting primarily lower production costs sure on prices. due to the moderation of natural gas prices. Figure 14 Precious metal prices Figure 15 Fertilizer prices Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. 7 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Agriculture Figure 16 Agriculture price indices Most agricultural commodity prices have been de- clining, with the overall index down 3.5 percent from 2013Q2 and more than 13 percent lower than a year ago. Beverages and raw materials have led the decline, down 32 and 35 percent respectively since 2011Q1 (figure 16). Grain prices have not declined as much due to weather problems (maize last season and wheat this season) but have been moderating recently. In its September 2013 assess- ment, the U.S. Department of Agriculture largely maintained the marked improvement for the 2013/14 outlook with production of maize, wheat, and rice expected to increase by 11.2, 8.2, and 1.7 Source: World Bank. percent, respectively. Increases are expected in the stock-to-use (S/U) ratios for maize and rice but not Figure 17 Wheat, maize and rice prices wheat. The oilseed and edible oil outlook is com- fortable as well with global supplies of key edible oils expected to reach a record 195 million tons in 2013/14, up from last season’s 187 million tons. Recent Developments Grain prices have been declining steadily since the spike in the summer of 2012 as supply expectations for the 2013/14 crop season have gradually im- proved (figure 17). Between their last summer peak (July 2012) and September 2013 maize, rice, and wheat prices declined 38, 23, and 11 percent, re- spectively—maize prices are at a record 3-year low. In its September 2013 update, the U.S. Department Source: World Bank. of Agriculture placed the global maize production estimate at 957 million tons, up from 860 million Figure 18 Edible oil prices tons in 2012/13, in turn increasing the S/U ratio from 14.1 percent to 16.3 percent. Similarly, the global wheat production estimate for 2013/14 stands at 709 million tons, up from last season’s 655 million tons; yet the S/U ratio for wheat is ex- pected to decline marginally (from 25.5 to 25 per- cent) as global consumption is expected to in- crease by almost 26 million tons. Rice prices averaged $444/ton in September; they have been lower only once since the post-2007 boom (in June-July 2010). The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s September assessment puts global rice production at 477 million tons, 8 million tons above last season’s record. The S/U ratio is ex- pected to reach almost 23 percent, remarkably sim- Source: World Bank. ilar to that of 2012/13 and well within historical 8 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook norms. Trade in rice has improved as well, reaching Figure 19 Coffee prices a new record of almost 40 million tons, mostly aid- ed by a surge in Chinese imports. Edible oil prices, which declined sharply in late 2012 and early 2013, have stabilized (figure 18). The World Bank’s edible oil index is 1 percent up since 2013Q2 but 7 percent lower than a year ago. While palm oil prices are marginally lower due to ample supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia (world’s top palm oil suppliers), soybean prices have come under pressure during the past two months due to unusually low global stocks, in turn a reflection weather-related damages to the U.S. soybean crop. World production prospects for sun- flowerseed have deteriorated as well. On the other Source: World Bank. hand, demand for oilseeds and edible oils is strong, especially by China and India—they account for Figure 20 Raw material prices one-third of global edible oil consumption. Beverage prices have moderated further, 1 percent down from last quarter and 7 percent lower than a year ago (figure 19). The decline was led by coffee and less so tea—cocoa prices have been increasing during the past 3 months. The coffee market fun- damentals remain bearish with global output ex- pected to reach 145.2 million tons (following a rec- ord Brazilian crop of 52 million tons) and con- sumption forecast at 143.1 million tons, leaving the market with a surplus of 2.1 million bags. Yet, there are concerns over next season’s cocoa crop, especially from West Africa, following uncertainty over Cote d’Ivoire’s crop and unfavorable weather conditions in Ghana. Source: World Bank. Sugar prices (not part of the World Bank’s bever- age price index) have been remarkably stable dur- Figure 21 Global maize supplies ing the past two quarters, yet there has been some recovery during September (a reflection of the Bra- zilian real’s strengthening and increased investment fund activity.) Yet, sugar prices are 15 percent low- er than a year ago and almost half of their 2010Q3 highs. The sugar market is likely to be in surplus during 2013/14 as both India and Thailand have large quantities of sugar available for export while there are good prospects for cane harvests in Asia and Central America. Raw material prices have been weakening as well, down 3 percent since 2013Q2 and 6 percent lower than 2012Q3 (figure 20). Both natural rubber and cotton prices have been under pressure. Supplies Source: US Department of Agriculture, Sept 2013 Update. of natural rubber have been especially strong in 9 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Thailand and Indonesia while demand by China Figure 22 Global wheat supplies has been weakening on fears of growth modera- tion—most natural rubber production is destined for tire manufacturing, a sector very sensitive to growth prospects. On cotton, while global produc- tion is expected to decline (25.5 million tons in 2013/14, down from last season’s 26.9 million tons), weak demand is likely to generate an addi- tional 2 million tons of stocks, most of which is likely to be purchased by the Chinese govern- ment—at the end of the current season, China is expected to hold 60 percent of world’s stocks. Outlook and Risks Source: US Department of Agriculture, Sept 2013 update. Agricultural commodity prices are projected to de- cline 7.8 percent in 2013. with most of the decline attributable to grains and beverages (almost 11 per- Figure 23 Global rice supplies cent each), followed by edible oils (-8.7 percent) and raw materials (-6.9 percent). The largest de- clines among important food commodities are ex- pected to be in maize and rice (from the grain group) and coconut oil and palm oil (from edible oil group). A number of assumptions (along with associated risks) underpin the outlook for agricultural com- modities—namely crop conditions, energy prices, biofuels, macroeconomic environment, and trade policies. On crop conditions, it is assumed that that the current season’s outlook will be along normal trends. In its September outlook assessment, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated the Source: US Department of Agriculture, Sept 2013 update. 2013/14 crop season’s grain supplies (production plus stocks) at 2.57 billion tons, up 5 percent from 2012/13, a level that would replenish stocks (see Figure 24 Biofuels production figures 21, 22, and 23) The baseline forecast also assumes that oil prices will remain at $105/bbl in 2013, increasing slightly next year and gradually declining thereafter. Diversion to the production of biofuels is expected to remain flat in 2013, for the third year in a row—currently, biofuels correspond to 1.3 mb/d of crude oil production in energy- equivalent terms (figure 24). Investment fund activ- ity has stabilized as well and, in an environment of higher interest rates it may decline. Last, trade poli- cies are unlikely to upset agricultural markets, an assumption that relies on markets remaining well- supplied. (A detailed analysis of the risks can be found in the July 2013 edition of the Commodity Markets Outlook). Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy; OECD. 10 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Table A1 World Bank Commodities Price Data Annual Averages Quarterly Averages Monthly Averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Jul Aug Sep Commodity Unit 2010 2011 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 Energy Coal, Australia $/mt a/ 99.0 121.4 96.4 89.4 86.9 92.9 86.1 77.3 77.3 77.0 77.6 Coal, Colombia $/mt a/ 78.0 111.5 84.0 82.7 79.3 79.3 71.3 65.8 66.3 65.6 65.4 Coal, South Africa $/mt a/ 91.6 116.3 92.9 87.4 85.8 84.7 80.4 72.9 72.6 72.9 73.1 Crude oil, avg, spot $/bbl a/ 79.0 104.0 105.0 102.8 101.9 105.1 99.3 107.4 105.3 108.2 108.8 Crude oil, Brent $/bbl a/ 79.6 110.9 112.0 110.0 110.5 112.9 103.0 110.1 107.7 111.0 111.6 Crude oil, Dubai $/bbl a/ 78.1 106.0 108.9 106.2 107.2 108.0 100.8 106.2 103.4 107.0 108.4 Crude oil, WTI $/bbl a/ 79.4 95.1 94.2 92.2 88.1 94.3 94.2 105.8 104.7 106.5 106.2 Natural gas Index 2005=100 a/ 91.1 107.3 108.2 108.0 112.1 114.5 121.0 113.2 113.7 112.6 113.4 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu a/ 8.3 10.5 11.5 11.1 11.7 11.8 12.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu a/ 4.4 4.0 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.5 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.6 Natural gas LNG, Japan $/mmbtu a/ 10.8 14.7 16.6 17.6 15.2 16.2 16.3 16.0 16.2 16.0 16.0 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa ¢/kg b/ 313.3 298.0 239.2 249.4 245.1 220.9 230.7 246.9 230.9 248.4 261.6 Coffee, Arabica ¢/kg b/ 432.0 597.6 411.1 400.0 357.1 335.5 319.9 298.2 305.1 298.0 291.6 Coffee, robusta ¢/kg b/ 173.6 240.8 226.7 234.1 219.5 227.8 214.3 203.6 209.9 207.3 193.5 Tea, auctions (3), average ¢/kg b/ 288.5 292.1 289.8 308.4 303.6 294.2 289.3 278.8 283.2 278.2 275.0 Tea, Colombo auctions ¢/kg b/ 329.0 326.4 306.3 308.1 319.5 338.4 328.5 337.5 317.3 336.0 359.1 Tea, Kolkata auctions ¢/kg b/ 280.5 277.9 275.0 313.4 291.4 256.8 303.9 276.1 303.8 270.6 253.7 Tea, Mombasa auctions ¢/kg b/ 256.0 271.9 288.1 303.5 300.0 287.3 235.4 222.9 228.4 228.0 212.3 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil $/mt b/ 1,123.6 1,730.1 1,110.8 1,012.7 843.7 836.7 838.7 913.3 861.0 894.0 985.0 Copra $/mt 749.6 1,157.3 740.6 671.7 564.7 553.3 560.0 603.3 569.0 587.0 654.0 Groundnuts $/mt 1,283.9 2,086.2 2,174.5 1,858.3 1,423.0 1,360.3 1,400.0 1,380.3 1,388.0 1,360.0 1,393.0 Groundnut oil $/mt b/ 1,403.9 1,988.2 2,435.7 2,476.3 2,298.0 2,002.0 1,859.7 1,693.7 1,758.0 1,685.0 1,638.0 Palm oil $/mt b/ 900.8 1,125.4 999.3 993.0 809.3 852.7 850.3 827.3 833.0 829.0 820.0 Palmkernel oil $/mt 1,184.2 1,648.3 1,110.3 1,019.7 813.0 824.3 836.3 872.3 836.0 868.0 913.0 Soybean meal $/mt b/ 378.4 398.0 524.1 630.3 586.7 531.0 528.3 551.7 563.0 526.0 566.0 Soybean oil $/mt b/ 1,004.6 1,299.3 1,226.3 1,258.0 1,157.7 1,160.3 1,069.7 1,006.7 995.0 999.0 1,026.0 Soybeans $/mt b/ 449.8 540.7 591.4 672.0 604.3 566.3 505.3 527.3 509.0 516.0 557.0 Grains Barley $/mt b/ 158.4 207.2 240.3 258.4 249.3 236.7 230.4 191.0 214.0 189.0 169.9 Maize $/mt b/ 185.9 291.7 298.4 328.6 317.2 305.0 291.3 241.9 279.5 238.7 207.5 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt b/ 488.9 543.0 563.0 568.3 558.4 562.1 541.6 477.3 509.0 478.8 444.0 Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt 441.5 506.0 .. 547.9 530.8 537.9 509.4 420.3 454.0 425.0 381.9 Rice,Thailand, A1 $/mt 383.7 458.6 525.1 513.3 521.2 532.5 511.1 433.2 461.8 428.3 409.4 Rice, Vietnam, 5% $/mt 429.2 513.6 434.4 433.6 438.6 401.5 387.8 385.9 387.7 399.4 370.5 Sorghum $/mt 165.4 268.7 271.9 273.4 285.4 292.0 259.9 219.2 220.0 220.6 216.9 Wheat, Canada $/mt 312.4 439.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Wheat, US, HRW $/mt b/ 223.6 316.3 313.2 349.5 355.7 321.4 313.8 305.8 304.6 305.3 307.5 Wheat, US SRW $/mt 229.7 285.9 295.4 333.4 337.3 297.6 275.2 257.7 260.9 252.4 259.8 Other Food Bananas, EU $/mt 1,002.2 1,124.7 1,099.7 982.3 1,102.8 1,095.7 1,072.4 983.2 998.2 977.4 973.9 Bananas, US $/mt b/ 868.3 968.0 984.0 959.9 944.5 929.6 907.2 933.5 923.2 940.4 937.0 Fishmeal $/mt 1,687.5 1,537.4 1,558.3 1,676.7 1,775.7 1,868.7 1,821.0 1,699.7 1,726.0 1,713.0 1,660.0 Meat, beef ¢/kg b/ 335.1 404.2 414.2 400.1 419.1 427.1 410.8 388.8 390.2 388.4 387.7 Meat, chicken ¢/kg b/ 189.2 192.6 207.9 209.7 213.2 221.0 229.4 234.5 234.6 234.8 234.1 Meat, sheep ¢/kg 531.4 663.1 609.1 587.5 586.2 553.2 545.5 556.3 539.1 550.4 579.4 Oranges $/mt b/ 1,033.2 891.1 868.0 995.5 861.9 825.9 1,065.0 1,153.7 1,121.2 1,190.8 1,149.1 Shrimp, Mexico ¢/kg b/ 1,004.5 1,193.1 1,006.5 970.0 1,023.9 1,126.2 1,223.6 1,514.9 1,441.8 1,532.2 1,570.8 Sugar, EU domestic ¢/kg b/ 44.2 45.5 42.0 40.9 42.4 43.1 42.7 43.3 42.8 43.5 43.6 Sugar, US domestic ¢/kg b/ 79.2 83.9 63.6 61.5 50.5 46.4 43.4 44.6 42.4 45.1 46.4 Sugar, World ¢/kg b/ 46.9 57.3 47.5 46.8 43.3 40.9 38.6 37.7 37.1 37.5 38.4 11 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Table A1 World Bank Commodities Price Data Annual Averages Quarterly Averages Monthly Averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Jul Aug Sep Commodity Unit 2010 2011 2012 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 Raw Materials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 428.6 484.8 451.4 436.2 453.2 456.2 457.4 464.1 458.3 466.2 467.7 Logs, Malaysia $/cum b/ 278.2 390.5 360.5 355.1 352.7 322.5 301.8 301.1 298.8 304.4 300.1 Plywood ¢/sheets 569.1 607.5 610.3 607.1 611.5 591.6 553.5 552.3 548.0 558.3 550.5 Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 812.7 825.8 759.3 755.2 765.9 740.7 736.2 737.9 727.7 742.9 742.9 Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum b/ 848.3 939.4 876.3 864.3 874.4 845.2 837.4 846.0 827.7 845.0 865.1 Woodpulp $/mt 866.8 899.6 762.8 735.2 748.2 784.0 818.7 830.7 832.0 830.0 830.0 Other Raw Materials Cotton A Index ¢/kg b/ 228.3 332.9 196.7 185.6 180.9 198.2 204.3 202.4 204.2 204.5 198.6 Rubber, RSS3 ¢/kg b/ 365.4 482.3 337.7 297.0 309.6 315.6 290.5 259.0 256.3 256.9 263.8 Rubber, TSR20 ¢/kg 338.1 451.9 315.6 275.0 288.3 296.3 244.6 234.8 224.3 238.0 242.2 Fertilizers DAP $/mt b/ 500.7 618.9 539.8 565.0 532.3 491.6 489.8 432.1 460.0 438.1 398.1 Phosphate rock $/mt b/ 123.0 184.9 185.9 183.3 185.0 173.0 166.3 143.2 157.0 145.0 127.5 Potassium chloride $/mt b/ 331.9 435.3 459.0 464.8 430.1 390.8 392.3 391.9 392.9 393.3 389.5 TSP $/mt b/ 381.9 538.3 462.0 485.0 452.2 435.0 426.0 366.0 408.0 357.5 332.5 Urea, E. Europe, bulk $/mt b/ 288.6 421.0 405.4 381.3 383.0 396.6 342.4 307.5 321.5 303.3 297.8 Metals and Minerals Aluminum $/mt b/ 2,173.1 2,401.4 2,023.3 1,928.6 2,003.3 2,000.3 1,836.1 1,782.8 1,769.6 1,817.6 1,761.3 Copper $/mt b/ 7,534.8 8,828.2 7,962.3 7,729.2 7,913.2 7,918.0 7,161.3 7,086.3 6,906.6 7,192.9 7,159.3 Iron ore $/dmt 145.9 167.8 128.5 111.6 120.9 148.5 125.5 132.7 127.2 136.7 134.2 Lead ¢/kg b/ 214.8 240.1 206.5 198.7 220.1 229.0 205.3 210.2 204.8 217.4 208.5 Nickel $/mt b/ 21,808.9 22,910.4 17,547.5 16,383.9 16,984.2 17,295.8 14,967.1 13,955.5 13,750.3 14,314.9 13,801.4 Tin ¢/kg b/ 2,040.6 2,605.4 2,112.6 1,936.3 2,160.9 2,401.8 2,090.2 2,131.4 1,956.4 2,164.4 2,273.5 Zinc ¢/kg b/ 216.1 219.4 195.0 189.2 195.2 202.9 184.2 186.1 183.8 189.9 184.7 Precious Metals Gold $/toz 1,224.7 1,569.2 1,669.5 1,656.5 1,717.7 1,630.8 1,415.1 1,328.6 1,285.5 1,351.7 1,348.6 Platinum $/toz 1,609.8 1,719.5 1,550.8 1,500.9 1,598.1 1,632.1 1,466.2 1,451.5 1,401.5 1,496.1 1,456.9 Silver ¢/toz 2,015.3 3,522.4 3,113.7 2,994.7 3,261.2 3,006.0 2,316.7 2,138.9 1,971.0 2,189.4 2,256.4 World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries (2010=100) Energy 100.0 128.7 127.6 124.9 124.7 128.6 123.1 130.3 128.1 131.0 131.9 Non Energy Commodities 100.0 119.8 109.5 110.4 108.2 107.2 101.7 99.0 99.4 99.2 98.5 Agriculture 100.0 121.6 114.5 118.6 113.5 110.1 107.2 104.0 105.3 103.4 103.3 Beverages 100.0 116.0 92.6 94.5 89.3 84.5 83.3 82.2 81.5 82.5 82.6 Food 100.0 122.5 124.5 132.5 124.9 120.7 117.4 113.2 115.9 112.1 111.6 Fats and Oils 100.0 120.5 126.1 137.9 122.9 117.8 112.7 113.8 113.6 111.3 116.5 Grains 100.0 138.2 141.3 152.8 150.2 143.6 138.3 121.6 132.3 120.9 111.7 Other Food 100.0 111.1 107.1 106.9 104.7 104.0 104.7 104.8 103.9 105.3 105.1 Raw Materials 100.0 122.0 101.3 97.1 98.3 97.3 94.6 92.8 91.8 92.9 93.7 Timber 100.0 117.3 109.1 107.6 108.3 103.2 100.9 101.6 99.7 101.8 103.3 Other Raw Materials 100.0 127.2 92.8 85.7 87.4 90.8 87.8 83.2 83.1 83.2 83.2 Fertilizers 100.0 142.6 137.6 135.5 132.0 128.9 119.8 108.2 114.6 107.5 102.6 Metals and Minerals c/ 100.0 113.5 96.1 90.8 94.6 98.7 88.2 87.8 85.7 89.6 88.2 Base Metals d/ 100.0 113.1 98.0 94.1 97.3 98.0 88.7 87.1 85.3 88.6 87.3 Precious Metals 100.0 136.3 138.5 136.4 143.0 135.2 114.6 107.4 103.0 109.5 109.8 Notes: a/ Included in the energy index (2005=100), b/ Included in the non-energy index (2005=100), c/ base metals plus iron ore, d/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmt = dry metric ton dmtu = dry metric ton unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz .. = not available n.q. = no quotation Sources: Africa Tea Brokers Ltd Weekly Market Report, Bloomberg, Canadian Grain Commission, Canadian Wheat Board, Cotton Outlook, Coal Week International, Fertilizer International, Fertilizer Week, FRuiTROP, IHS McCloskey Coal Report, INFOFISH, INTERFEL Fel Actualités hebdo, International Cocoa Organization, International Coffee Organization, International Rubber Study Group, International Tea Committee, International Tropical Timber Organization, Internatonal Sugar Organization, ISTA Mielke GmbH Oil World, Japan Lumber Journal, Japan Metal Bulletin, Meat Trades Journal, MLA Meat & Livestock Weekly, Platts International Coal Report, Platts Metals Week, The Silver Institute, Singapore Commodity Exchange, Sopisco News, Sri Lanka Tea Board, Statistisches Bundesamt, US Department of Agriculture, US NOAA Fisheries Service, VALE and World Gas Intelligence. 12 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Table A2 World Bank Commodities Price Forecast in Nominal US dollars Released: October 15, 2013 Commodity Unit 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Energy Coal, Australia $/mt 85.0 88.0 90.0 91.0 91.9 92.9 93.9 94.9 95.9 96.9 97.9 99.0 100.0 Crude oil, avg, spot $/bbl 105.0 105.7 102.0 100.7 100.1 99.6 99.1 98.7 98.3 98.0 97.6 97.3 97.0 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.0 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 Natural gas LNG, Japan $/mmbtu 16.0 15.2 15.0 14.7 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa ¢/kg 240.0 235.0 230.0 229.0 228.0 227.0 225.9 224.9 223.9 223.0 222.0 221.0 220.0 Coffee, Arabica ¢/kg 310.0 330.0 340.0 341.0 342.0 343.0 344.0 345.0 346.0 347.0 348.0 349.0 350.0 Coffee, robusta ¢/kg 205.0 200.0 185.0 183.4 181.9 180.4 178.8 177.3 175.8 174.4 172.9 171.4 170.0 Tea, auctions (3), average ¢/kg 280.0 288.2 291.4 294.6 297.9 301.2 304.6 308.0 311.3 314.7 318.1 321.5 325.0 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil $/mt 860.0 900.0 920.0 918.0 916.0 914.0 911.9 909.9 907.9 906.0 904.0 902.0 900.0 Groundnut oil $/mt 1,750.0 1,925.0 1,900.0 1,894.9 1,889.9 1,884.9 1,879.8 1,874.8 1,869.8 1,864.9 1,859.9 1,854.9 1,850.0 Palm oil $/mt 840.0 860.0 880.0 871.7 863.4 855.2 847.1 839.0 831.1 823.2 815.4 807.7 800.0 Soybean meal $/mt 540.0 460.0 420.0 415.8 411.7 407.6 403.5 399.5 395.5 391.6 387.7 383.8 380.0 Soybean oil $/mt 1,100.0 1,075.0 1,050.0 1,044.9 1,039.8 1,034.7 1,029.7 1,024.7 1,019.7 1,014.7 1,009.8 1,004.9 1,000.0 Soybeans $/mt 535.0 525.0 520.0 519.0 518.0 517.0 516.0 515.0 514.0 513.0 512.0 511.0 510.0 Grains Barley $/mt 210.0 205.0 200.0 198.4 196.9 195.4 193.9 192.4 190.9 189.4 187.9 186.4 185.0 Maize $/mt 250.0 248.0 245.0 243.5 241.9 240.4 238.9 237.4 235.9 234.4 232.9 231.5 230.0 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 500.0 490.0 480.0 478.0 475.9 473.9 471.9 469.9 467.9 465.9 463.9 462.0 460.0 Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 315.0 310.0 300.0 297.4 294.8 292.3 289.7 287.2 284.7 282.3 279.8 277.4 275.0 Other Food Bananas, EU $/mt 930.0 945.0 940.0 938.0 936.0 934.0 931.9 929.9 927.9 926.0 924.0 922.0 920.0 Meat, beef ¢/kg 400.0 395.0 390.0 389.0 388.0 387.0 386.0 385.0 384.0 383.0 382.0 381.0 380.0 Meat, chicken ¢/kg 225.0 215.0 210.0 209.0 208.0 206.9 205.9 204.9 203.9 202.9 202.0 201.0 200.0 Oranges $/mt 1,130.0 1,050.0 1,000.0 992.8 985.6 978.5 971.4 964.4 957.4 950.5 943.6 936.8 930.0 Shrimp, Mexico ¢/kg 1,400.0 1,300.0 1,250.0 1,244.9 1,239.8 1,234.8 1,229.8 1,224.7 1,219.8 1,214.8 1,209.8 1,204.9 1,200.0 Sugar, World ¢/kg 39.0 38.5 38.0 37.7 37.4 37.1 36.8 36.5 36.2 35.9 35.6 35.3 35.0 Raw Materials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 460.0 460.0 465.1 472.8 480.7 488.6 496.7 505.0 510.9 516.8 522.8 528.9 535.0 Logs, Malaysia $/cum 310.0 345.0 368.1 374.2 380.5 386.9 393.4 400.0 404.9 409.8 414.8 419.9 425.0 Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum 840.0 885.0 902.0 919.4 937.1 955.2 973.6 1,000.0 1,015.5 1,031.3 1,047.3 1,063.5 1,080.0 Other Raw Materials Cotton A Index ¢/kg 200.0 203.0 205.0 209.1 213.3 217.6 221.9 226.4 230.9 235.6 240.3 245.1 250.0 Rubber, Malaysian ¢/kg 280.0 290.0 300.0 297.9 295.9 293.9 291.8 289.8 287.8 285.9 283.9 281.9 280.0 Tobacco $/mt 4,350.0 4,200.0 4,150.0 4,139.9 4,129.8 4,119.7 4,109.7 4,099.7 4,089.7 4,079.7 4,069.8 4,059.9 4,050.0 Fertilizers DAP $/mt 450.0 460.0 470.0 469.0 468.0 467.0 466.0 465.0 464.0 463.0 462.0 461.0 460.0 Phosphate rock $/mt 145.0 140.0 130.0 127.3 124.6 121.9 119.4 116.8 114.4 111.9 109.6 107.3 105.0 Potassium chloride $/mt 395.0 390.0 380.0 374.7 369.4 364.3 359.1 354.1 349.2 344.3 339.4 334.7 330.0 TSP $/mt 400.0 395.0 390.0 388.0 385.9 383.9 381.9 379.9 377.9 375.9 373.9 372.0 370.0 Urea, E. Europe, bulk $/mt 330.0 325.0 320.0 317.9 315.9 313.9 311.8 309.8 307.8 305.9 303.9 301.9 300.0 Metals and Minerals Aluminum $/mt 1,800.0 1,850.0 1,900.0 1,928.1 1,956.5 1,985.4 2,014.8 2,044.5 2,074.7 2,105.3 2,136.4 2,168.0 2,200.0 Copper $/mt 7,100.0 7,050.0 7,000.0 6,979.7 6,959.5 6,939.4 6,919.3 6,899.3 6,879.3 6,859.4 6,839.5 6,819.7 6,800.0 Iron ore $/dmt 134.0 135.0 137.0 137.8 138.6 139.4 140.1 140.9 141.7 142.6 143.4 144.2 145.0 Lead ¢/kg 210.0 212.0 215.0 216.0 217.0 218.0 218.9 219.9 220.9 222.0 223.0 224.0 225.0 Nickel $/mt 14,000 15,000 16,000 16,190 16,381 16,575 16,772 16,971 17,172 17,375 17,581 17,789 18,000 Tin ¢/kg 2,200.0 2,220.0 2,250.0 2,273.8 2,297.9 2,322.3 2,346.9 2,371.7 2,396.8 2,422.2 2,447.9 2,473.8 2,500.0 Zinc ¢/kg 190.0 215.0 220.0 221.9 223.9 225.8 227.8 229.8 231.8 233.8 235.9 237.9 240.0 Precious Metals Gold $/toz 1,380.0 1,360.0 1,350.0 1,344.9 1,339.8 1,334.8 1,329.8 1,324.8 1,319.8 1,314.8 1,309.8 1,304.9 1,300.0 Platinum $/toz 2,250.0 2,270.0 2,280.0 2,282.0 2,284.0 2,286.0 2,288.0 2,290.0 2,292.0 2,294.0 2,296.0 2,298.0 2,300.0 Silver ¢/toz 1,480.0 1,450.0 1,400.0 1,384.2 1,368.6 1,353.2 1,338.0 1,322.9 1,308.0 1,293.2 1,278.7 1,264.2 1,250.0 Next update: January 2014 13 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Table A3 World Bank Commodities Price Forecast in Real 2010 US dollars Released: October 15, 2013 Commodity Unit 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Energy Coal, Australia $/mt 80.3 81.3 82.3 82.0 81.7 81.4 81.1 80.7 80.3 79.9 79.5 79.0 78.6 Crude oil, avg, spot $/bbl 99.2 97.7 93.2 90.8 89.0 87.3 85.6 84.0 82.4 80.8 79.3 77.7 76.2 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 11.3 10.6 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 Natural gas LNG, Japan $/mmbtu 15.1 14.0 13.7 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.0 11.7 11.3 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.8 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa ¢/kg 226.7 217.1 210.3 206.5 202.7 199.0 195.2 191.4 187.6 183.9 180.2 176.5 172.9 Coffee, Arabica ¢/kg 292.8 304.8 310.8 307.5 304.1 300.7 297.2 293.5 289.9 286.2 282.5 278.8 275.1 Coffee, robusta ¢/kg 193.6 184.7 169.1 165.4 161.8 158.1 154.5 150.9 147.3 143.8 140.3 136.9 133.6 Tea, auctions (3), average ¢/kg 264.5 266.2 266.4 265.6 265.0 264.1 263.2 262.1 260.9 259.5 258.2 256.8 255.5 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil $/mt 812.4 831.3 841.1 827.7 814.6 801.3 787.9 774.3 760.7 747.2 733.8 720.5 707.4 Groundnut oil $/mt 1,653.1 1,778.1 1,737.0 1,708.6 1,680.8 1,652.6 1,624.1 1,595.4 1,566.7 1,538.1 1,509.7 1,481.7 1,454.1 Palm oil $/mt 793.5 794.4 804.5 786.0 767.9 749.8 731.8 714.0 696.3 679.0 661.9 645.2 628.8 Soybean meal $/mt 510.1 424.9 384.0 374.9 366.1 357.4 348.6 340.0 331.4 323.0 314.7 306.6 298.7 Soybean oil $/mt 1,039.1 993.0 959.9 942.2 924.8 907.2 889.6 872.0 854.4 836.9 819.7 802.7 786.0 Soybeans $/mt 505.4 484.9 475.4 468.0 460.7 453.3 445.8 438.2 430.6 423.1 415.6 408.2 400.9 Grains Barley $/mt 198.4 189.4 182.8 178.9 175.1 171.3 167.5 163.7 159.9 156.2 152.5 148.9 145.4 Maize $/mt 236.2 229.1 224.0 219.5 215.2 210.8 206.4 202.0 197.6 193.3 189.1 184.9 180.8 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 472.3 452.6 438.8 431.0 423.3 415.5 407.7 399.9 392.0 384.3 376.6 369.0 361.6 Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 297.6 286.3 274.3 268.2 262.2 256.3 250.3 244.4 238.6 232.8 227.1 221.6 216.2 Other Food Bananas, EU $/mt 878.5 872.9 859.3 845.8 832.4 818.9 805.2 791.3 777.5 763.7 750.0 736.5 723.1 Meat, beef ¢/kg 377.8 364.9 356.5 350.7 345.1 339.3 333.5 327.6 321.7 315.9 310.1 304.3 298.7 Meat, chicken ¢/kg 212.5 198.6 192.0 188.4 185.0 181.4 177.9 174.4 170.9 167.4 163.9 160.5 157.2 Oranges $/mt 1,067.4 969.9 914.2 895.2 876.5 857.9 839.2 820.6 802.2 783.9 765.9 748.3 731.0 Shrimp, Mexico ¢/kg 1,322.5 1,200.8 1,142.7 1,122.5 1,102.7 1,082.6 1,062.4 1,042.2 1,022.0 1,001.9 982.1 962.5 943.2 Sugar, World ¢/kg 36.8 35.6 34.7 34.0 33.2 32.5 31.8 31.0 30.3 29.6 28.9 28.2 27.5 Raw Materials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 434.5 424.9 425.2 426.3 427.5 428.4 429.2 429.7 428.0 426.2 424.4 422.5 420.5 Logs, Malaysia $/cum 292.8 318.7 336.5 337.4 338.4 339.2 339.9 340.4 339.2 338.0 336.7 335.4 334.1 Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum 793.5 817.5 824.6 829.0 833.4 837.5 841.1 851.0 850.9 850.6 850.1 849.5 848.9 Other Raw Materials Cotton A Index ¢/kg 188.9 187.5 187.4 188.6 189.7 190.8 191.7 192.6 193.5 194.3 195.0 195.8 196.5 Rubber, Malaysian ¢/kg 264.5 267.9 274.3 268.6 263.2 257.6 252.1 246.6 241.2 235.8 230.4 225.2 220.1 Tobacco $/mt 4,109.1 3,879.5 3,793.9 3,732.9 3,672.9 3,612.1 3,550.6 3,488.7 3,426.6 3,364.9 3,303.6 3,243.0 3,183.3 Fertilizers DAP $/mt 425.1 424.9 429.7 422.9 416.2 409.4 402.6 395.7 388.8 381.8 375.0 368.2 361.6 Phosphate rock $/mt 137.0 129.3 118.8 114.7 110.8 106.9 103.1 99.4 95.8 92.3 89.0 85.7 82.5 Potassium chloride $/mt 373.1 360.2 347.4 337.8 328.6 319.4 310.3 301.3 292.5 283.9 275.5 267.3 259.4 TSP $/mt 377.8 364.9 356.5 349.8 343.2 336.6 329.9 323.3 316.6 310.0 303.5 297.1 290.8 Urea, E. Europe, bulk $/mt 311.7 300.2 292.5 286.7 280.9 275.2 269.4 263.7 257.9 252.3 246.7 241.2 235.8 Metals and Minerals Aluminum $/mt 1,700.3 1,708.8 1,737.0 1,738.5 1,740.1 1,740.8 1,740.6 1,739.8 1,738.3 1,736.4 1,734.2 1,731.8 1,729.2 Copper $/mt 6,706.8 6,512.1 6,399.4 6,293.6 6,189.6 6,084.3 5,977.9 5,871.0 5,764.0 5,657.4 5,551.8 5,447.6 5,344.8 Iron ore $/dmt 126.6 124.7 125.2 124.2 123.2 122.2 121.1 119.9 118.8 117.6 116.4 115.2 114.0 Lead ¢/kg 198.4 195.8 196.6 194.7 193.0 191.1 189.2 187.2 185.1 183.1 181.0 178.9 176.9 Nickel $/mt 13,225 13,856 14,627 14,598 14,569 14,533 14,490 14,441 14,388 14,330 14,271 14,210 14,148 Tin ¢/kg 2,078.2 2,050.6 2,056.9 2,050.3 2,043.7 2,036.1 2,027.6 2,018.2 2,008.2 1,997.8 1,987.0 1,976.1 1,965.0 Zinc ¢/kg 179.5 198.6 201.1 200.1 199.1 198.0 196.8 195.5 194.2 192.8 191.5 190.0 188.6 Precious Metals Gold $/toz 1,303.6 1,256.2 1,234.2 1,212.7 1,191.6 1,170.3 1,148.9 1,127.3 1,105.8 1,084.4 1,063.2 1,042.4 1,021.8 Platinum $/toz 2,125.4 2,096.8 2,084.4 2,057.7 2,031.3 2,004.3 1,976.7 1,948.7 1,920.4 1,892.0 1,863.7 1,835.6 1,807.8 Silver ¢/toz 1,398.0 1,339.4 1,279.9 1,248.1 1,217.2 1,186.5 1,155.9 1,125.7 1,095.9 1,066.6 1,037.9 1,009.9 982.5 Next update: January 2014 14 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Table A4 World Bank Indices of Commodity Prices and Inflation, 2010=100 Released: October 15, 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Price indices in nominal US dollars Energy 128.5 129.5 126.0 124.8 124.4 124.2 123.9 123.8 123.7 123.6 123.6 123.6 123.7 Non-energy commodities 100.5 100.3 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.4 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.7 Agriculture 105.6 104.8 103.9 103.8 103.7 103.6 103.5 103.6 103.5 103.4 103.3 103.2 103.1 Beverages 82.5 83.8 83.4 83.4 83.5 83.6 83.7 83.8 83.8 83.9 84.0 84.1 84.2 Food 115.1 111.9 109.5 108.9 108.3 107.6 107.0 106.4 105.8 105.1 104.5 103.9 103.3 Fats and oils 115.0 109.8 107.1 106.3 105.6 105.0 104.3 103.6 102.9 102.2 101.6 100.9 100.2 Grains 126.3 124.6 122.0 121.2 120.5 119.7 118.9 118.1 117.4 116.6 115.8 115.1 114.3 Other food 104.9 103.1 101.5 101.0 100.6 100.2 99.8 99.4 99.0 98.6 98.2 97.7 97.3 Raw materials 94.3 98.2 100.5 101.7 102.8 104.0 105.3 106.9 107.9 109.0 110.0 111.1 112.2 Timber 101.8 108.7 112.1 114.2 116.3 118.4 120.7 123.6 125.4 127.3 129.1 131.0 132.9 Other Raw Materials 86.1 86.8 87.9 88.0 88.2 88.3 88.4 88.6 88.8 88.9 89.1 89.3 89.6 Fertilizers 113.8 111.8 108.8 107.7 106.6 105.5 104.5 103.4 102.4 101.4 100.4 99.4 98.4 Metals and minerals a/ 88.4 89.8 90.9 91.4 91.9 92.4 92.9 93.4 93.9 94.4 95.0 95.5 96.1 Base Metals b/ 87.6 89.1 90.2 90.7 91.2 91.6 92.1 92.6 93.2 93.7 94.2 94.7 95.3 Precious Metals 111.8 110.7 110.0 109.7 109.3 109.0 108.7 108.4 108.0 107.7 107.4 107.0 106.7 Price indices in real 2010 US dollars c/ Energy 121.4 119.6 115.2 112.5 110.7 108.9 107.1 105.3 103.6 102.0 100.4 98.8 97.2 Non-energy commodities 94.9 92.6 91.4 90.2 89.0 87.8 86.6 85.4 84.1 82.9 81.6 80.4 79.2 Agriculture 99.7 96.8 95.0 93.6 92.2 90.8 89.5 88.1 86.7 85.3 83.8 82.4 81.0 Beverages 77.9 77.4 76.2 75.2 74.3 73.3 72.3 71.3 70.3 69.2 68.2 67.2 66.2 Food 108.7 103.3 100.1 98.2 96.3 94.4 92.4 90.5 88.6 86.7 84.8 83.0 81.2 Fats and oils 108.7 101.4 97.9 95.9 94.0 92.0 90.1 88.1 86.2 84.3 82.4 80.6 78.8 Grains 119.3 115.1 111.6 109.3 107.1 104.9 102.7 100.5 98.3 96.2 94.0 91.9 89.9 Other food 99.1 95.3 92.7 91.1 89.5 87.9 86.3 84.6 83.0 81.3 79.7 78.1 76.5 Raw materials 89.1 90.7 91.9 91.7 91.5 91.2 90.9 91.0 90.4 89.9 89.3 88.8 88.2 Timber 96.1 100.4 102.5 102.9 103.4 103.8 104.2 105.2 105.1 105.0 104.8 104.7 104.5 Other Raw Materials 81.4 80.1 80.4 79.4 78.4 77.4 76.4 75.4 74.4 73.4 72.4 71.4 70.4 Fertilizers 107.5 103.3 99.5 97.1 94.8 92.5 90.3 88.0 85.8 83.6 81.5 79.4 77.3 Metals and minerals a/ 83.5 82.9 83.1 82.4 81.7 81.0 80.2 79.5 78.7 77.9 77.1 76.3 75.5 Base Metals b/ 82.8 82.3 82.5 81.8 81.1 80.4 79.6 78.8 78.1 77.3 76.5 75.7 74.9 Precious Metals 105.6 102.2 100.6 98.9 97.3 95.6 93.9 92.2 90.5 88.8 87.2 85.5 83.9 Inflation indices, 2010=100 d/ MUV index e/ 105.9 108.3 109.4 110.9 112.4 114.1 115.7 117.5 119.4 121.2 123.2 125.2 127.2 % change per annum (1.6) 2.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 US GDP deflator 105.9 108.3 111.0 113.6 116.4 119.2 122.1 125.1 128.1 131.2 134.4 137.7 141.0 % change per annum 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Notes: a/ Base metals plus iron ore Next update: January 2014 b/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc c/ Real price indices are computed from unrounded data and deflated by the MUV index. d/ Inflation indices for 2013-2025 are projections e/ Unit value index of manufacture exports (MUV) in US dollar terms for fifteen countries (Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, France, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Spain, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States). 15 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook Description of price indicator price, Robustas, average New York and Le Havre/Marseilles markets, ex-dock. series Tea, average three auctions, arithmetic average of quotations at Kolkata, Colombo and Mombasa/ Nairobi. Coal (Australia), thermal, f.o.b. piers, Newcas- Tea (Colombo auctions), Sri Lankan origin, all tle/Port Kembla, 6,700 kcal/kg, 90 days forward tea, arithmetic average of weekly quotes. delivery beginning year 2011; for period 2002- Tea (Kolkata auctions), leaf, include excise duty, 2010, 6,300 kcal/kg (11,340 btu/lb); prior to year arithmetic average of weekly quotes. 2002, 6,667 kcal/kg (12,000 btu/lb). Tea (Mombasa/Nairobi auctions), African origin, Coal (Colombia), thermal, f.o.b. Bolivar, 6,450 all tea, arithmetic average of weekly quotes. kcal/kg, (11,200 btu/lb) ; during years 2002-July 2005 11,600 btu/lb, less than .8% sulfur, 9% ash , 90 days forward delivery Coconut oil (Philippines/Indonesia), bulk, c.i.f. Rotterdam. Coal (South Africa), thermal, f.o.b. Richards Bay, 90 days forward delivery; 6,000 kcal/kg, dur- Copra (Philippines/Indonesia), bulk, c.i.f. N.W. ing 2002-2005, 6,200 kcal/kg (11,200 btu/lb); Europe. during 1990-2001 6390 kcal/kg (11,500 btu/lb) Groundnuts (US), Runners 40/50, shelled basis, Crude oil, average price of Brent, Dubai and c.i.f. Rotterdam West Texas Intermediate, equally weighed. Groundnut oil (any origin), c.i.f. Rotterdam. Crude oil, U.K. Brent 38` API. Palm oil (Malaysia), 5% bulk, c.i.f. N. W. Europe. Crude oil, Dubai Fateh 32` API. Palmkernel Oil (Malaysia), c.i.f. Rotterdam. Crude oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 40` Soybean meal (any origin), Argentine 45/46% API. extraction, c.i.f. Rotterdam beginning 1990; previ- Natural Gas (Europe), average import border ously US 44%. price, including UK. As of April 2010 includes a Soybean oil (Any origin), crude, f.o.b. ex-mill spot price component. Between June 2000 - Netherlands. March 2010 excludes UK. Soybeans (US), c.i.f. Rotterdam. Natural Gas (U.S.), spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana. Barley (US) feed, No. 2, spot, 20 days To-Arrive, Natural gas LNG (Japan), import price, cif, delivered Minneapolis from May 2012 onwards; recent two months' averages are estimates. during 1980 - 2012 April Canadian, feed, Western No. 1, Winnipeg Commodity Exchange, spot, Cocoa (ICCO), International Cocoa Organiza- wholesale farmers' price tion daily price, average of the first three posi- tions on the terminal markets of New York and Maize (US), no. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports. London, nearest three future trading months. Rice (Thailand), 5% broken, white rice (WR), Coffee (ICO), International Coffee Organization milled, indicative price based on weekly surveys of indicator price, other mild Arabicas, average New export transactions, government standard, f.o.b. York and Bremen/Hamburg markets, ex-dock. Bangkok. Coffee (ICO), International Coffee Organization Rice (Thailand), 25% broken, WR, milled indica- 16 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook tive survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Oranges (Mediterranean exporters) navel, EEC Bangkok. indicative import price, c.i.f. Paris. Rice (Thailand), 100% broken, A.1 Super from Shrimp, (Mexico), west coast, frozen, white, No. 2006 onwards, government standard, f.o.b. Bang- 1, shell-on, headless, 26 to 30 count per pound, kok; prior to 2006, A1 Special, a slightly lower wholesale price at New York. grade than A1 Super. Sugar (EU), European Union negotiated import Rice (Vietnam), 5% broken, WR, milled, weekly price for raw unpackaged sugar from African, Car- indicative survey price, Minimum Export Price, ibbean and Pacific (ACP) under Lome Conven- f.o.b. Hanoi. tions, c.I.f. European ports. Sorghum (US), no. 2 milo yellow, f.o.b. Gulf Sugar (US), nearby futures contract, c.i.f. ports. Sugar (world), International Sugar Agreement Wheat (Canada), no. 1, Western Red Spring (ISA) daily price, raw, f.o.b. and stowed at greater (CWRS), in store, St. Lawrence, export price. Caribbean ports. Logs (West Africa), sapele, high quality (loyal and Wheat (US), no. 1, hard red winter, ordinary pro- marchand), 80 centimeter or more, f.o.b. Douala, tein, export price delivered at the US Gulf port for Cameroon beginning January 1996; previously of prompt or 30 days shipment. unspecified dimension. Wheat (US), no. 2, soft red winter, export price Logs (Malaysia), meranti, Sarawak, sale price delivered at the US Gulf port for prompt or 30 charged by importers, Tokyo beginning February days shipment. 1993; previously average of Sabah and Sarawak weighted by Japanese import volumes. Bananas (Central & South America), major Plywood (Africa and Southeast Asia), Lauan, 3- brands, free on truck (f.o.t.) Southern Europe, ply, extra, 91 cm x 182 cm x 4 mm, wholesale including duties; prior to October 2006, f.o.t. price, spot Tokyo. Hamburg. Sawnwood (Cameroon), sapele, width 6 inches or Bananas (Central & South America), major more, length 6 feet or more, f.a.s. Cameroonian brands, US import price, f.o.t. US Gulf ports. ports. Fishmeal (any origin), 64-65%, c&f Bremen, Sawnwood (Malaysia), dark red seraya/meranti, estimates based on wholesale price, beginning select and better quality, average 7 to 8 inches; 2004; previously c&f Hamburg. length average 12 to 14 inches; thickness 1 to 2 inch(es); kiln dry, c. & f. UK ports, with 5% agents Meat, beef (Australia/New Zealand), chucks and commission including premium for products of cow forequarters, frozen boneless, 85% chemical certified sustainable forest beginning January 2005; lean, c.i.f. U.S. port (East Coast), ex-dock, begin- previously excluding the premium. ning November 2002; previously cow forequar- Woodpulp (Sweden), softwood, sulphate, ters. bleached, air-dry weight, c.i.f. North Sea ports. Meat, chicken (US), broiler/fryer, whole birds, 2- Cotton (Cotton Outlook "CotlookA index"), mid- 1/2 to 3 pounds, USDA grade "A", ice-packed, dling 1-3/32 inch, traded in Far East, C/F begin- Georgia Dock preliminary weighted average, ning 2006; previously Northern Europe, c.i.f. wholesale. Rubber (Asia), RSS3 grade, Singapore Commodi- Meat, sheep (New Zealand), frozen whole car- ty Exchange Ltd (SICOM) nearby contract begin- casses Prime Medium (PM) wholesale, Smithfield, ning 2004; during 2000 to 2003, Singapore RSS1; London beginning January 2006; previously Prime previously Malaysia RSS1. Light (PL). Rubber (Asia), TSR 20, Technically Specified Rubber, SICOM nearby contract. 17 GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | October 2013 Commodity Markets Outlook DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf. Phosphate rock (Morocco), 70% BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca. Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver. TSP (triple superphosphate), bulk, spot, beginning October 2006, Tunisian origin, granular, fob; previ- ously US origin, f.o.b. US Gulf. Urea, (Black Sea), bulk, spot, f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) beginning July 1991; for 1985-91 (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe. Aluminum (LME) London Metal Exchange, unal- loyed primary ingots, high grade, minimum 99.7% purity, settlement price beginning 2005; previously cash price. Copper (LME), grade A, minimum 99.9935% purity, cathodes and wire bar shapes, settlement price. Iron ore (any origin) fines, spot price, c.f.r. China, 62% Fe beginning December 2008; previously 63.5%. Lead (LME), refined, 99.97% purity, settlement price. Nickel (LME), cathodes, minimum 99.8% purity, settlement price beginning 2005; previously cash price. Tin (LME), refined, 99.85% purity, settlement price. Zinc (LME), high grade, minimum 99.95% purity, settlement price beginning April 1990; previously special high grade, minimum 99.995%, cash prices . Gold (UK), 99.5% fine, London afternoon fixing, average of daily rates. Platinum (UK), 99.9% refined, London afternoon fixing. Silver (UK), 99.9% refined, London afternoon fix- ing; prior to July 1976 Handy & Harman. Grade pri- or to 1962 unrefined silver. 18