CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge Supported by the Cover photo: Oum Ali wipes a tear citing her escape from Aleppo. Photo credit: Mohamed Azakir / World Bank Graphic design: ULTRAdesigns, Inc. CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge Policy Note September 14, 2017 Supported by the Acknowledgement T his publication is the result of a team effort across Social Urban Rural and Resilience Global Practice at the World Bank. The Task Team Leaders were Axel Baeumler (Senior Infrastructure Economist, GSU11) and Anton Baare (Senior Social Development Specialist, GSU07) together with a core team comprising Ellen Hamilton (Lead Urban Specialist, GSU11), Phoram Shah (Urban Specialist, GSU11), Karen Jacobsen (Lead Consultant), and Catherine Kleplacki (Consultant). Benjamin Stewart (Geographer, GGSCE), Julie Biau (Program Analyst, GSU11), Myriam Ababsa (Consultant), Andres Villaveces (Consultant) and Stephen Commins (Consultant) also provided valuable contributions. Markus Kostner (Lead Social Development Specialist, GSUSD), Xavier Devictor (Adviser, GCFDR), Caroline Bahnson (Senior Operations Officer, GCFMR), Sylvie Debomy (Lead Urban Development Specialist, GSU19), Claire Kfouri (Country Program Coordinator, MNCA2), Joanna De Berry (Senior Social Development Specialist, GSU07), Andrew James Roberts (Senior Operations Officer, GSUGL), Josef Leitmann (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist, GFDRR), Sima Kanaan (Lead Social Development Specialist, GSU05), Dario Zanardi (Junior Professional Officer, GSU05), Caroline Bahnson (Senior Operations Officer, GTFMR), Mona Niebuhr (Program Officer, GTFMR) and David Kipp (Associate, German Institute for International and Security Affairs) commented at various stages of the preparation of the report. The publication also benefitted from multiple discussions at the World Bank and workshops organized by the Centre for Mediterranean Integration (CMI) in May 2016 entitled “Municipalities at the Forefront of the Refugee Crisis” and by the African Center for Migration and Society held at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center on “Displacement in Twenty- first Century Cities: A New Agenda for Urban Governance, Sustainability and Resilience” in March 2017. The report was edited by Juliet Bunch (Consultant). Charlene D’Almeida (Program Assistant, GSU11), Emilia Gunawan (Senior Program Assistance, GSU11) and Karen Hoyos (Temporary, GSU11) provided administrative support. Financial support was provided by the Global Program on Forced Displacement (GPFD), German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction (GFDRR), the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation and the Safety Nets Global Solutions Group (World Bank). This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Table of Contents Preface < 3 > Key Messages < 4 > 1. Cities are increasingly at the forefront of the forced displacement response < 6 > 2. Addressing urban forced displacement requires a development approach < 10 > 3. Existing experience can inform a development response to urban forced displacement < 14 > 4. Policy implications for local, national, and international development actors < 22 > Endnotes < 25 > Reference < 26 > Boxes Box 1 Complementing People-centered approaches with Place-based Assistance in cases of Protracted Displacement < 10 > Box 2 World Bank Group Urban Forced Displacement Engagements in MENA < 15 > Figures Figure 1 Humanitarian and Development Nexus: Across Types of Cities < 11 > Figure 2 Typology of Cities < 12> Figure 3 A Development-oriented Approach to Urban Displacement < 14 > Figure 4 Urbanization Policy Framework < 16 > Maps Map 1 Nighttime Satellite Image of the Mashreq, 2012 and 2015 < 7 > Map 2 Zaatari Village and Camp 2010 vs 201 < 8 > Tables Table 1 Non-Camp vs Camp Refugees and Urban Proportion of Refugees and IDPs in the Mashreq Region and Turkey, End of 2016 < 6 > Table 2 MENA Urban Displacement Typology < 13 > Table 3 Overlaying displacement with relevant development challenges and solutions < 18 > Table 4 Actors and their roles in interventions for urban forced displacement < 23 > CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 3 Preface T his policy note aims to advance our understanding of urban forced displacement, induced by conflict, by looking at the issue from the perspective of receiving towns and cities. It explores why we need a different approach to addressing urban forced displacement; how to “think differently” about urban forced displacement along the humanitarian-development assistance spectrum; what we can learn from existing urbanization and other relevant experiences to inform humanitarian and development responses; and what “thinking differently” means for local, national, and international development actors. The primary audiences of the note are development and humanitarian practitioners as well as policy makers who are increasingly confronted with the urban dimensions of protracted forced displacement. Photo credit: © Dominic Chavez/World Bank 4 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge Key Messages Forced displacement is are already well established. This social tensions between displaced among the most pressing pattern is particularly evident in and host communities and do not the already highly urbanized MENA help host communities cope with challenges in the Middle region, where an estimated 80-90 the new needs arising from rapid East North Africa (MENA) percent of displaced live in towns population growth. region. and cities – significantly above the The number of people forcibly global average of 60 percent. displaced worldwide continues Recommendations for to increase, particularly in MENA, international agencies where waves of unrest and conflict Solutions for The main recommendation for have driven a huge increase in displacement must target international agencies is to integrate displacement. In 2016, there were host towns and cities. humanitarian and development an estimated 65.6 million people The shift in displacement from approaches in towns and cities forcibly displaced around the world, camps to towns and cities means hosting displaced populations from of which about one quarter were changing the paradigm for how the beginning. Important elements living in countries across the MENA humanitarian and development include: region. For each refugee displaced agencies work with displaced ▲▲ Develop integrated humanitarian in MENA, there are almost five populations. Instead of providing and development approaches to internally displaced people (IDPs).  stand-alone solutions to displaced forced displacement in cities people in camps or rural areas, the challenge is to support host ▲▲ Promote the integration of civil Contrary to common society in the development communities to scale up existing belief, most of the services, shelter and jobs to meet response architecture forcibly displaced live the needs of both the original ▲▲ Work increasingly through outside of camps. residents and the displaced. national and local government When thinking of the displaced In towns and cities, targeted systems to deliver aid and and providing food, shelter and assistance to the displaced should services services, standalone camps run be complemented with place-based development approaches that build ▲▲ Mobilize concessional finance to by humanitarian agencies are the on existing governance structures scale up response capabilities in most common image. However, only and service delivery mechanisms affected countries and cities a minority of forcibly displaced people actually live in camps. to promote the welfare of all ▲▲ Improve the evidence base Today, most of the displaced are in residents, regardless of origin. for better development towns and cities, where provision Approaches that target assistance policy decision making and of services, shelter and livelihoods only for the displaced may heighten programming CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 5 Recommendations for ▲▲ Adhere to policy standards Policy dialogue needs local governments related to refugees and internally to be sensitive to the displaced, as applicable and Local governments are at the political dynamics around with reference to international forefront of the response to urban commitments as entered into by forced displacement displacement. Priority interventions the respective countries Governments from both origin and for local and municipal governments include: host countries are at the center ▲▲ Implement coherent national of the crisis. Their decisions Scale up and expand basic polices in areas outside the direct ▲▲ affect the scale and destination of services and infrastructure control of local and municipal population movements, as well as based on a development, not governments, specifically in the the impacts and solutions in the emergency, approach areas of labor markets, land and short, medium, and long terms. housing markets, education and ▲▲ Leverage delivery modalities External development partners health of service delivery to increase can support the adoption and confidence and build trust ▲▲ Implement coherent national implementation of sound responses, between communities and local refugee and IDP policies, but the primary role rests with authorities as a basis for social including alternatives to camps, national and local authorities. cohesion Mitigating the impact of forced as the main response focus ▲▲ Leverage support from national displacement on host communities ▲▲ Support building social cohesion and international actors to (whether in camp or urban settings) between displaced and host address capacity and financing is not a strictly technical agenda. gaps communities as sine qua non for Political considerations often drive medium-term sustainability ▲▲ Enhance capacity and resilience the host authorities’ response, to better prepare for and respond ▲▲ Support policies to enable a and need to be taken into account to displacement challenges transition from humanitarian when supporting governmental first-response approaches to efforts. A development approach ▲▲ Promote local economic medium-term development should expand the focus from development and private sector approaches reducing the vulnerabilities of the participation for shared growth forcibly displaced to also mitigating ▲▲ Mobilize financing so that local impacts on host communities. This governments can meet increased Recommendations for financing needs holistic approach of supporting national governments the community as a whole can also reshape the political dialogue National governments also play a around forced displacement. critical role. Priority interventions for central governments include: 6 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge 1. Cities are increasingly at the forefront of the forced displacement response The majority of forcibly displaced now live in towns agencies, and development institutions to rethink long- and cities. Globally, more than 60 percent of forcibly established paradigms for humanitarian and development displaced live now in urban areas. In MENA, the share is assistance concerning the displaced. even higher – an estimated 80-90 percent live in towns The scale and scope of urban forced displacement in and cities.1 The urbanization of forced displacement MENA is unprecedented. Globally, 65.6 million people means the displaced are no longer in isolated areas, but were forcibly displaced at the end of 2016, of which one now blend into existing urban populations. Their move to cities is often based on a perception that cities offer quarter were living in countries across the MENA region. better economic opportunities, increased security, a By the end of 2016, conflicts in the region had displaced degree of anonymity, greater access to services, and closer 6.1 million refugees originating from MENA. The main proximity to markets.2 In MENA, the share of displaced country of origin for refugees in 2016 was Syria, with 5.5 in urban areas is higher because the region is highly million refugees at the end of the year – an increase over urbanized, especially the Mashreq; in Lebanon and Jordan, the 4.9 million a year earlier.4 In addition, an unknown 88 percent and 70 percent of the respective populations number of expatriate citizens and Palestinians living and live in urban areas, which is considerably higher than working in Iraq and Syria before the crisis were forced to the MENA average of 64 percent.3 Another factor is that return to their home countries. Based on global trends, some MENA countries, such as Lebanon, decided not to forced displacement in MENA is projected to be protracted establish formal camps for Syrian refugees, giving them and long lasting; more than 80 percent of refugee crises few options other than moving to cities. This shift from last for ten years or more, and two in five last 20 years or camps to cities requires governments, humanitarian more.5 TABLE 1 Non-Camp vs Camp Refugees and Urban Proportion of Refugees and IDPs in the Mashreq Region and Turkey, End of 2016 Total Refugees Total Refugees Inside Total Refugees Outside Total Refugees in Urban Country (and IDPs) Camps(% of Total) Camps(% of Total) Areas(% of Total) Egypt 213,530 No camps 213,530 100% 212,253/1 (99%) Iraq 261,888 92,826 (35%) 169,062 (65%) 261,888/2 (100%) 3,604,285 IDPs Jordan 685,197 137,296 (20%) 547,901 (80%) 547,901/2 (80%) Lebanon 1,012,969 No non-Palestinian camps 1,012,969 (100%) 1,012,969 (100%) Turkey 2,869,421 260,053 (9%) 2,609,368 (91%) 2,635,752/2 (92%) Rural camps 233,669 Urban camps 26,384 Source: Numbers of refugees and IDPs as per the UNHCR Global Trends 2016 Statistical Annexes, Tables 1, 16 and 19. Numbers exclude asylum seekers. /1 The one percent difference is explained by a small number of unknown and rural refugees. /2 UNHCR classifies refugees by location into three categories – Urban, Rural/Dispersed, and Various/Unknown – and acknowledges related data limitations. In Iraq, all camps are categorized as ‘urban’ and in Jordan all camps are categorized as ‘rural,’ while in Turkey 3 out of 22 camps are categorized as ‘urban’ and the remainder as ‘rural.’ CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 7 MAP 1 Nighttime Satellite Image of the Mashreq, 2012 and 2015 2012 2015 Source: Map created by World Bank Group staff. Satellite image and data processing by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Geophysical Data Center. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data collected by the US Air Force Weather Agency. Pictures taken at identical time of day on the same day in September. Forced displacement is a factor in the region’s rapidly as other migrants in cities. They may live in informal changing urban footprint. Map 1 provides a snapshot settlements and experience insecure land and property of nighttime satellite images across the Mashreq region, rights, overcrowding, severe economic constraints, highlighting the difference in the urban footprint between crime and violence, food insecurity, and forced evictions. 2012 and 2015. A significant change is clearly visible However, there are important differences.8 The displaced over a short time span. This is driven by the region’s are often worse off compared to their non-displaced general population growth rates, which in Jordan, for neighbors.9 On arrival, they have health and trauma- example, averaged 3.2 percent per year between 2000 related vulnerabilities due to their uprooting and journeys, and 2010.6 Since 2011, the population growth rate in coupled with immediate expenses for food, shelter and Jordan has increased to 7 percent, and it is estimated that other needs. Many have no social networks they can turn the difference of 3.8 percentage points is largely due to to for assistance. Over time, the displaced face barriers the influx of the forcibly displaced. Forced displacement to accessing services or employment opportunities, is part and parcel of the overall urbanization trajectory especially if they lack legal documents, and they are at across the MENA region, but with important differences. greater risk for arbitrary arrest, detention, and eviction.10 While the region’s ongoing urbanization has been a As their stay becomes protracted, it becomes very difficult long-term trend and a gradual process, the influx of the for the displaced to overcome their initial disadvantages, and they are at greater risk of poverty. The impact on displaced is leading to much more rapid urban population children and adolescents is particularly grave in terms of growth that is more akin to population growth patterns interrupted education – an acute and longer-term concern resulting from shocks, such as natural disasters.7 because the Syrian refugee populations are much younger The forcibly displaced – both IDPs and refugees – are than the total population of host countries. The median among a city’s most vulnerable population. IDPs and age of Syrian refugees is 16 in Lebanon, and 17 in Jordan. refugees in urban areas face many of the same issues About 62 percent of refugees in Jordan are under the 8 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge age of 24.11 Women and girls are also disproportionately begin with ‘anchor communities’ of migrant or refugee co- impacted by the crisis and at higher risk of gender-based nationals (such as other Syrians), which draw new arrivals violence including rape, domestic violence, interpersonal who benefit from social capital and networks.14 violence, sexual violence, exploitation, child marriage, The urban spatial footprint can increase rapidly as and human trafficking.12 a result of the displacement influx. A large influx of The impact of urban displacement differs between displaced people into cities and towns can double or triple primary and secondary cities or towns and within cities. population growth rates in months, weeks or even days, Capital cities and major urban agglomerations tend to expanding the urban footprint. While primary cities such have the highest numbers of forcibly displaced people. as Amman will grow somewhat, spatial expansion is most For example, Amman hosts 32 percent of the refugees in visible in smaller municipalities such as Mafraq, Zaatari Jordan.13 However, secondary cities and towns near the and Ramtha in northern Jordan, where populations have borders of sending countries have higher proportions of in some cases doubled and new settlement development refugees relative to their population and are therefore drives rapid expansion of the urban footprint. In Mafraq, often more affected. The secondary towns in the northeast for instance, settlement growth is happening in a different governorates of Irbid and Mafraq contain high proportions direction than envisaged, and lack of planning and proactive of refugees relative to their populations (32 percent in infrastructure investment have resulted in informal Mafraq and 23 percent in Irbid). In addition, the forcibly housing emerging outside the municipal boundaries.15 The displaced populations are generally not evenly distributed experience in Zaatari Municipality has been similar (see within cities. They tend to concentrate in specific Map 2). Its built-up area has increased by 60 percent since areas, usually low-income neighborhoods and informal 2013, and the establishment of the Zaatari refugee camp settlements in and adjacent to urban centers, where rents has had a significant spatial impact on the municipality. are lower and there is greater availability of informal Spatially, Zaatari Camp is no longer expanding, but rather housing arrangements such as rented-out living space consolidating within the existing footprint by improving and in basements and on roofs. Clusters of migrants often regularizing housing and service provision. The patterns of MAP 2 Zaatari Village and Camp 2010 vs 2016 2010 2016 Source: Map created by World Bank Group Staff. Satellite image and data from Google Timelapse. CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 9 urban growth today will determine long-term sustainability; Despite huge strains on the receiving communities, once housing, street and public spaces are established, it is there are some more positive impacts on cities. The not easy to change them. prevailing perception is that refugees are a burden on the development aspirations of host governments and Rapid urban population growth strains or overwhelms populations, and that negative socio-economic and housing markets and urban service provision. Stresses environmental impacts and costs outweigh the positive related to urban displacement converge spatially in city contributions (actual or potential) forcibly displaced neighborhoods and stretch the resilience of urban local people can make.19 However, Jordan offers a good example governments, institutions, and service providers alike. of how the forcibly displaced can positively impact the This is especially the case when population movements economy. In Jordan, there has been an increase in rental are large and happen quickly. Shelter is the top priority housing stock to meet Syrian demand, benefiting both the displaced and small landlords in host communities. for the forcibly displaced arriving in towns and cities. As For instance, in Mafraq, host families living in two units refugee communities stabilize, refugees seek to move often move in together to share one unit and rent the other from tents and temporary shelter into more permanent one to a Syrian family. As demand for housing grows, the housing arrangements, increasing the demand for market responds with increased housing construction, housing. The need for refugee housing has fueled a huge including informal housing production and adaptive demand in Jordan, estimated at about 100,000 units.16 rental arrangements. New construction, upgrading and For additional perspective, if about 20,000 households expanding properties create local jobs and demand shared units in 2004, by 2015 this number had increased for materials and contractor services. Humanitarian more than ten times to 240,000.17 Furthermore, waste programs such as cash-based assistance or rental support stimulate local housing markets, which in turn have an accumulation is a key source of discontent among the economic multiplier effect, as construction is stimulated population. The influx of refugees in Jordan is estimated as well. However, competition for rental properties can also to have brought 340 tons of additional daily waste.18 heighten tensions between refugees and their hosts. These Municipalities that already face equipment shortages are tensions increase when humanitarian agencies disburse overusing existing assets, resulting in higher maintenance rental support grants only to refugees; when coupled with costs while accelerating the depreciation of equipment. In growing demand, these grants can inflate the housing addition, competition for housing and services can cause market. Despite some possible positive impacts, there is tensions among refugees and host communities, severely no question that issues related to added strain on public straining a city’s social fabric. services and public finances will arise in the short run.20 10 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge 2. Addressing urban forced displacement requires a development approach The movement of displaced to towns and cities requires to promote their inclusion and integration by scaling up new paradigms for support. In earlier years, the main existing services and markets. Introducing place-based challenge has been to supply displaced people with basic approaches that build on existing governance structures services in camps and other primarily rural locations. and service delivery mechanisms to promote the welfare To do this effectively, humanitarian agencies built and of all residents, displaced and hosts alike, will help bring operated parallel systems of service delivery aimed long-term development focus and more sustainable specifically at the displaced. These “people-centered” solutions. approaches are neither responsive nor effective in urban Urban services are shared between the displaced and areas, where the public and private provision of services host communities and therefore require an integrated is often well-established and there are a variety of shelter approach. The sensitivities of the host community options, existing service delivery infrastructure, diverse must also be taken into consideration when providing livelihood opportunities, and functioning markets. aid to the displaced. Host communities often face The past paradigm of people-centered support similar challenges to the displaced in terms of housing, provided largely by humanitarian actors should employment, and services. In cities, where it is difficult be complemented with “place-based” paradigms to identify beneficiaries by displacement status, targeting grounded in local and national systems and supported the displaced for aid can raise social tensions between by development organizations. In urban areas, the the hosts and the displaced.21 An integrated approach that most efficient response to the needs of the displaced is promotes service improvements in cities as a whole can BOX 1 Complementing People-centered Approaches with Place-based Assistance in Cases of Protracted Displacement Development and humanitarian organizations are already beginning to address the issue of protracted forced displacement and how it impacts cities. In 2016, the World Bank, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the UK government hosted a forum to discuss new approaches. It resulted in the Wilton Park Principles, a set of guiding principles based on five proposed themes: i) Working through National and Local Systems; ii) Support to Host Communities and Social Cohesion; iii) Economic Participation and Growth; iv) Impactful and Innovative Financing; and v) Improved Data and Evidence. There has been increasing interest in so-called area or place-based approaches among humanitarian agencies working in urban crises. In 2010, the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) – the primary mechanism for inter-agency coordination of humanitarian assistance – called for a paradigm shift for humanitarian assistance in urban areas away from individual beneficiary approaches and towards community-based ones. In many instances, however, the humanitarian adaptations of spatial and community development approaches common in urban development programs do not sufficiently prioritize using and building the capacity of existing municipal systems – a key requirement for successful long-term, sustainable, area-based approaches. And development agencies are only now starting to move into emergency response situations, especially in areas affected by the conflicts across the MENA region. Sources: Crawford et al 2015. Parker and Maynard 2015. World Bank Group, DFID, UNHCR 2016. CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 11 help minimize such tensions. Integrated approaches also efforts for greater impact throughout the entire period of improve sustainability in the context of the increasingly forced displacement. protracted nature of displacement. Duration is commonly The idea is to create a collaborative approach that measured in years and decades instead of weeks or combines both people-based humanitarian assistance months, which makes indefinite provision of humanitarian and place-based development response at the outset. assistance increasingly unsustainable. For example, responses to provide temporary work Responses to urban forced displacement often begin permits needs to be paired with development approaches with an emergency humanitarian response and then focused on spurring economic activities and job creation move to sustained engagement that promotes long- that boost economic growth. The temporary response term development. Even in urban areas, the immediate to provide water supply through tanker trucks needs to response to displacement crises often involves a strong be complemented by improving urban service delivery humanitarian focus at the outset. For example, addressing through strengthening and expanding the network. The displacement in cities requires an immediate emergency support to returnees moving to urban centers needs to response to shelter that is similar to the camp-based be accompanied by development assistance to manage response, such as providing tents to the displaced as the corresponding urban growth, and so on. This entails temporary shelter. However, the best results are likely collaboration between development and humanitarian to be achieved when humanitarian and development actors on early transitioning towards government-led and actors work together from the outset. The humanitarian- executed modalities for multi-sectoral urban displacement development nexus has long been seen as sequential, responses. Predictable longer-term financing modalities with an initial humanitarian response followed by that international financial institutions can offer to address a development effort when the situation becomes issues of protracted displacement could be effectively protracted. In fact, rather than replace or succeed each leveraged in this context to promote such a continuum of other, both sets of actors can engage in complementary responses. FIGURE 1 Humanitarian and Development Nexus: Across Types of Cities TYPE 1 Cities with localized displacement impact TYPE 2 Cities under widespread stress from displacement TYPE 3 Cities and towns heavily affected by conflict damage TYPE 4 Urbanizing camps 12 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge FIGURE 2 Typology of Cities TYPE 1 TYPE 2 TYPE 3 TYPE 4 Cities with localized Cities under widespread Cities and towns heavily Urbanizing camps displacement impact stress from displacement affected by conflict damage Photo credit: Azrok66 Photo credit: Rainer Puster Photo credit: Richard Harvey Photo credit: Mohamed Azakir / World Bank Example: Example: Example: Example: Amman, Beirut Zarqa, Irbid, Mafraq, Tripoli Aleppo, part of Homs, Raqqa Syrian camps near Zarqa and Mafraq The humanitarian-to-development spectrum varies ▲▲ The size of the city or town and patterns of urban in- across different types of cities. The mix of humanitarian migration (urban spatial patterns); and development approaches in a city caught up in the ▲▲ The magnitude of displacement, or the proportion violence and destruction of war will be significantly of displaced to total urban population (urban different from a well-functioning city that receives a populations includes the forcibly displaced and host relatively small number of refugees. Similarly, while communities); adopting a development approach and investing in places can make sense in well-connected and economically ▲▲ The physical functionality of the city, or the adequacy sound cities impacted by displacement, this approach of the existing infrastructure to meet increased might not work equally well in lagging regions. That said, demand (urban services); and broadly speaking, urban displacement settings can be ▲▲ The city’s financial and administrative capacity to categorized into four distinct types (Types 1-4) based on cope with or absorb a mass influx (urban governance). the following factors: TYPE 1 Cities with localized displacement impact. are often already under stress. In other less-affected Examples: Primary cities such as Amman and Beirut. These parts of the city or areas where the displaced are more are larger cities with broadly adequate capacity and more evenly distributed, their impact is more likely to be intact infrastructure (roads, water, sanitation, and energy). absorbed without significantly disrupting the overall They have a more functional municipal governance and urban system. While the entire city may be only minimally reasonable budgetary resources to manage and absorb the affected, the impact will be much more significant in impact of an influx on urban systems. Type 1 cities are not areas where large numbers of displaced are concentrated. widely impacted by displacement, mainly because impact is In the case of MENA, the forcibly displaced in Type 1 localized in specific areas where the displaced settle, cities would be mainly refugees and, to a lesser extent, usually low-income communities. The displacement impact IDPs. In these settings, a development approach focused on is significant in these areas, however, because urban using existing government capacity is likely to be most infrastructure and systems, labor markets, and housing effective. CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 13 TYPE 2 Cities under widespread stress from face the additional burden of inflows of destitute, forcibly displacement. Examples: Tripoli in Lebanon and Mafraq displaced groups and individuals. However, even Type in Jordan. In Type 2 cities and towns, the displaced are 3 cities and towns are likely to have areas that are less a large proportion of the population, such as in Tripoli damaged, where refugees and IDPs as well as the local or host population live. Humanitarian approaches are likely (20 percent) and Mafraq (32 percent). Displacement has to be the dominant focus here, although interventions significantly impacted the overall absorption capacity, could lay the foundations for development approaches. including urban systems and services such as mobility and transportation systems, provision of food and water, sanitation, education, and health services. These cities and TYPE 4 Urbanizing camps. Example: Zaatari Camp towns are often near the borders of the sending countries, in Jordan. Refugee or IDP camps that have existed such as northeast Jordan and some cities and towns over a protracted period are either closed or open. In in Lebanon. As with Type 1 cities, sub-districts within closed camps, which are often in remote or inaccessible Type 2 towns can be more heavily affected. In conflict- locations at some distance from cities, movement in and affected countries such as Syria and Iraq, Type 2 cities out is restricted by government authorities, and there is and towns have escaped combat damage, but are heavily little change in the camps over time. Harran, Akcakale, affected by internal displacement, such as Erbil in Iraq’s and Nizip in Turkey are examples of closed camps. In open Kurdistan region. In this setting, while a development camps, residents are able to move in and out in search approach should remain the dominant focus and long- of work or livelihoods, although movement sometimes term objective, it would need to be complemented with requires permits. Over time, these camps take on urban characteristics such as aspects of urban economies or targeted humanitarian interventions. spatial layouts. If open camps are linked by roads and within a reasonable distance from towns, they are likely TYPE 3 Cities and towns heavily affected by conflict to have a socio-economic and political impact on the damage. Examples: Aleppo, Homs and Raqqa in Syria; and nearby towns. Camps can also become incorporated into Kirkuk, Ramadi and Mosul in Iraq. Type 3 cities and towns the larger urban space due to their proximity to expanding have suffered significant structural damage from heavy cities. Jordan’s Zaatari camp, 13 km outside Mafraq, is armed conflict, are under siege, or otherwise caught up increasingly developing into a self-standing urban space, in conflict. The damage to these towns means their urban although the government has restricted movement in and systems are largely non-functional – mobility is physically out of the camp. While camps are based on using parallel blocked by debris and transportation, sanitation systems systems, some elements of development approaches are nonfunctioning, and there is inadequate food, water, could be introduced – such as in governance, similar to or health services, among others. Type 3 cities and towns what is being done in Jordanian camps. In open camps are often subject both to inflows and outflows of people near towns, the case for using a development approach is fleeing the violence and destruction. As people flee, these strong; some infrastructure investments, even in camps, towns become hollowed out or undermined by the loss could be used by host communities after an eventual of skills, capital, and other assets. At the same time, they departure of refugees. TABLE 2 MENA Urban Displacement Typology TYPE 1 TYPE 2 TYPE 3 TYPE 4 Cities with localized Cities under widespread stress Cities heavily affected by Urbanizing camps Country displacement impact from displacement conflict/disaster Jordan Amman Zarqa, Irbid, Mafraq, Russeifa 3 Syrian camps near Zarqa and Ma’an and Mafraq Lebanon Beirut Tripoli, Halba Syria Damascus Lattakia, Tartous, Hama, Idlib Aleppo, part of Homs, Raqqa Iraq Baghdad Erbil, Sulaymaniyah Mosul, Kirkuk, Ramadi Dohuk (3 camps) Turkey Istanbul, Ankara Urfa, Gaziantep, Kilis 22 government-controlled camps 14 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge 3. Existing experience can inform a development response to urban forced displacement A shift towards a more development-oriented approach and repairing or reconstructing housing in Type 4 cities. to urban forced displacement is already evident In the West Bank and Gaza, the Bank has had a sustained in the World Bank’s portfolio (Figure 3) and other engagement over many years supporting smaller and larger development partners’ approach in the MENA region. municipalities (Types 1 and 2) in enhancing capacity and At the outset of the displacement crisis, the World Bank service delivery by providing municipal grants for capital funded projects in Jordan and Lebanon that invested in investment that are linked to municipalities’ financial municipal services and equipment to relieve immediate performance and planning capacity. pressure on services in Type 2 cities caused by the influx of displaced. In Jordan, the second phase of the World Other development partners are also implementing Bank’s Municipal Services and Social Resilience Project development-oriented solutions. In 2017, the Center for (MSSRP) recognizes the need to address years of under- Mediterranean Integration (CMI) published a collection investment and inadequate local capacity, and the project of local experiences from host municipalities in Jordan, is moving towards a medium-term development approach Lebanon and Turkey that focuses on development by strengthening the processes of service delivery in host challenges such as enhancing social cohesion, integrating communities. The World Bank Iraq Emergency Operation both refugees and hosts to labor markets, finding solutions for Development Project (EODP) focuses on rebuilding and for the strained sectors of waste management and restoring disrupted infrastructure, expanding services, housing, and enhancing good governance.22 Many of these FIGURE 3 A Development-oriented Approach to Urban Displacement Jordan West Bank & Stable but Stability Gaza coping with Some instability, refugee influx complex political Lebanon situation Some instability and coping with refugee influx Proximity to conflict Iraq Sustained Emerging from Engagement conflict Building Development Syria Solutions In conflict Emergency Response Fragility Humanitarian Nature of response Development CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 15 BOX 2 World Bank Group Urban Forced Displacement Engagements in MENA (Figure 3) In Beirut, Lebanon, the World Bank Group supported an Urban Masterplan focused on Resilience (Type 1 city with localized impact). The project included an assessment of Beirut’s current capability to mitigate and respond to adverse events, with an aim to identifying the resilience gaps and developing an integrated, multi-sectoral resilience strategy to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance local capacities. In Lebanon and Jordan, World Bank projects are responding to increased pressure on local services in Type 2 cities with widespread displacement stress due to a high influx of Syrian refugees. The Jordan Emergency Services and Social Resilience Project (US$ 63.5 million) is implemented in municipalities in Northern Jordan (bordering Syria), which are receiving a high proportion of refugees. The project provided funding for immediate service gaps. The next phase, the Municipal Services and Social Resilience Project (US$ 50 million), is taking a development-oriented approach with a focus on medium-term development and resilience by emphasizing greater community engagement and strategic planning. In Lebanon, the Municipal Services Emergency Project (US$ 10 million) targets 11 unions of municipalities with high influx of refugees and provides support for urgent community priorities, including solid waste management equipment, road works, water filters for schools, and parks. The project also provided small funds to NGOs for activities to enhance social cohesion. In the West Bank and Gaza, the Bank has had a sustained engagement over many years supporting smaller and larger municipalities (Types 1 and 2) in enhancing capacity and service delivery. Phases I and II of the Gaza Municipal Development Project (Phase I US$ 36.7 million and Phase II US$ 57.7 million) aim to improve municipal management practices for better service delivery and transparency. The first phase provided performance-based grants linked to municipal finance and planning, while the second phase focuses on improving revenue generation and municipal responsiveness to citizens. In Iraq, the aim is to facilitate post-conflict recovery (Type 4 cities heavily damaged by conflict). The Emergency Operation for Development Project (US$ 350 million) targets seven municipalities. The first year focuses on rapid repair and reconstruction, including installation of damaged infrastructure and procurement of emergency equipment as well as goods and materials. A more detailed damage and needs assessment will also be conducted in the first year, which will provide the basis for investments in rehabilitation and reconstruction in subsequent years. Source: World Bank Program Documents. approaches have been implemented by the municipalities Global experiences on managing urbanization, together with development partners including UN- promoting social inclusion, managing risks and Habitat, UNHCR, the International Labour Organization enhancing resilience are highly relevant to crafting (ILO), the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale solutions for displacement in an urban context. Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), the European Union, the UK The changing and urbanizing nature of displacement Department for International Development (DFID), the presents an opportunity to examine existing development Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA); challenges and solutions, as well as their applicability for NGOs such as the Agency for Technical Cooperation and displacement in an urban context. In many ways, urban Development (ACTED) and the Norwegian Refugee Council displacement presents the same challenges for city leaders (NRC); and, in some cases, the private sector. as rapid urbanization and population movements towards 16 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge cities. Spatial challenges such as unplanned and haphazard Applying relevant development lessons to the displace- urbanization lead to unsustainable city forms, inadequate ment context urban services, proliferating informal settlements, and Overlaying the displacement context with existing vulnerability to disasters due to unsafe locations. Social challenges include exclusion, social tensions between urbanization challenges confirms that tested solu- migrants and longtime residents, increased risks of crime tions can apply to addressing displacement. Adapting and violence, and issues of voice, rights and participation. development solutions that have been tested and im- There are also economic challenges, such as unemployment plemented to overcome these urbanization challenges and informal jobs with uncertain income sources and within the displacement context provides a practical and unsafe working conditions. Like the displaced, poor and evidence-based development perspective on durable rural migrants in urban areas often occupy temporary solutions for cities and people. In addition to the five shelters and are denied access to basic services due to lack urbanization challenges in Figure 4, managing risks and of tenure and property rights. Urban authorities generally post-disaster reconstruction are equally relevant. Similar- do not recognize them as legal residents. ly, social protection measures are part of traditional re- The World Bank’s flagship report on managing sponse to displacement challenges. Table 3 highlights the urbanization, Planning, Connecting and Financing Cities development approaches and solutions implemented to Now,23 presents challenges of urbanization in five broad address urbanization and other development challenges, categories: 1) Improving living conditions, especially in keeping in mind their applicability to urban displacement slums; 2) Managing the city’s physical form; 3) Creating contexts. The table provides an indicative list of develop- jobs; 4) Expanding the coverage and quality of basic infrastructure services; and 5) Bridging the divided city ment approaches and explains their relevance to urban and fostering inclusion (See Figure 4). These categories displacement, including reflections on their applicability can provide a framework of how to think about forced for various types (type 1-4) of cities and towns that are displacement from an urban angle. presented in Section 2. FIGURE 4 Urbanization Policy Framework PLAN CONNECT FINANCE Focus on policies for using urban Focus on physically linking Focus on leveraging local, land-use planning + expanding people-people, people to national, and international basic infrastructure and public jobs–and businesses resources to augment services to markets current capacities Helping City Leaders Address Key Challenges Expanding basic Bridging the divided Improving living Managing the city’s Creating jobs infrastructure and city and fostering conditions physical form services inclusion Source: Adapted from Planning, Connecting & Financing for Cities Now. World Bank 2013b. CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 17 Examples of development solutions for the seven and connected residents with jobs, with investments urbanization and other related challenges. This section in public transport around the sites – allowing provides more details about approaches used in World coordinated growth, expansion and infrastructure Bank financed projects listed in Table 3 that could be investments while delivering low-income housing. This applied to the displacement context. approach could also be applied to invest in orderly expansion and provide basic services while addressing the housing situation for the displaced and low-income 1. Managing rapid urbanization and host communities. city’s physical form ▲▲ Forward-looking urban and land use planning could help prepare for shocks arising from sudden population 2. Improving living conditions increases and the resulting pressure on urban services. ▲▲ Slum upgrading offers an opportunity to improve living This is particularly important for Type 2 cities that are conditions in communities through a combination experiencing a high proportion of population influx, of area-based improvements and people-centered which often calls for a redefinition of priorities to assistance. A key lesson learned from decades of reflect the changing and expanded needs. investment in slum upgrading projects is this: Solutions that integrate spatial (shelter and basic services), social In the early to mid-2000s, the World Bank financed (voice and participation), and economic dimensions the National Water Supply and Sanitation Project (jobs and access to credit) are far more effective. in Azerbaijan that included a component on urban Adapting urban upgrading solutions to displacement planning in Baku, where nearly half of the displaced in could facilitate improved living conditions through Azerbaijan settled. Challenges included an overtaxed investments in basic services and improved welfare existing infrastructure, spatial expansion, and poor through people-centered interventions. living conditions for the displaced. The World Bank supported the Government of Azerbaijan in developing The Bank-funded Jamaica Inner Cities Basic Services a new urban plan that covered the entire area, project is relevant for Type 1 cities, which experience combined social and economic objectives within a localized impact due to the displaced settling in single planning framework that provided the basis for already impoverished areas. The project targeted 12 capital investments in infrastructure, many of which communities vulnerable to crime and violence with have been financed by the World Bank. very high levels of poverty. It involved both place- based elements, such as improving access to basic ▲▲ The Sites and Services approach allows city authorities urban infrastructure, and people-centered aspects to accommodate future growth by allocating plots for aimed at family support and public safety. housing that are linked to existing service networks. The government assembles land, lays out basic services, ▲▲ Participatory and community-driven development is and produces serviced plots that are then sold to low- an area-based approach that transfers decision-making income households, with an expectation that they will and implementation responsibilities to the community, build on the serviced plots incrementally as needed. typically used in rural areas. Although implementing CDD projects in cities can be challenging due to the Since the Sites and Services Projects in India were part transient nature of populations, projects in urban areas of larger urban development projects, it was possible are increasingly using community-driven, small-scale to select locations for sites that seemed peripheral, upgrading to improve living conditions, including in the where land was available and relatively cheap, but displacement context. were close to proposed investment corridors. The sites were linked to trunk infrastructure in anticipation of An example is the Afghanistan Citizen Charter growth and investments, and by 2015, most project project, which currently covers four cities with large neighborhoods were extensively built out and densely numbers of returnees and refugees and is expanding occupied. These projects provided affordable housing to other urban areas. The project aims to improve 18 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge TABLE 3 Overlaying displacement with relevant development challenges and solutions Development Approaches Applicable to the Challenges Displacement Context Examples* Forward-looking urban and land use planning: Planning for Baku urban planning as a future influx of people in an integrated manner that allows for component of the Azerbaijan coordinated investments in infrastructure, services and housing. National Water Supply and 1. Managing rapid Sanitation urbanization and city’s (US$ 207.6 million) (2007-2016) physical form Sites and Services: Planning for accommodating population by Sites and Services Projects in allocating plots that are linked to existing service networks and India*** providing people with an opportunity to incrementally build per (US$ 1.0 billion) their shifting needs. (1973-97) Slum Upgrading: Area-based approach for upgrading basic Jamaica Inner Cities Basic services that also provides opportunity to target people living Services Project in the area for complementary social, economic and other (US$ 32.8 million) 2. Improving living interventions. (2006-13) conditions Community-Driven Development (CDD): Area-based Afghanistan Citizen Charter approach that transfers decision making and implementation (US$ 200 million) responsibilities to the community/people living in the area. (2017-20) Livelihood support: Providing livelihood support such as skill Azerbaijan Living Conditions and 3. Creating Jobs and building, training, and access to finance to build people’s self- Livelihood Supports Project Supporting Livelihoods reliance. (US$ 78.5 million) (2012–20) Infrastructure and Services projects: Expanding and Jenin Solid Waste Management 4. Expanding the coverage strengthening infrastructure and services that are strained and/ Project and quality of basic or damaged with an aim to expand coverage and improve quality (US$ 14 million) infrastructure services of services. (2001-10) 5. Bridging the divided Citizen engagement: Minimizing risks to social tensions through Medellín Model: Social city and fostering inclusion and citizen engagement and enhancing opportunities Urbanism** inclusion for social exchange to achieve social cohesion. (20 years of sustained effort) Damage and Needs Assessment (DNA): A diagnostic tool Yemen DNA (2015-16) that provides an assessment of the needs for recovery and Syria DNA (2016-17) reconstruction following any disaster. 6. Managing risks and post-disaster Post-disaster housing reconstruction: Exploring options for Port-au-Prince (Haiti) reconstruction people to move from temporary shelters to more permanent and Neighborhood Housing quality housing, involving a range of options for both owners and Reconstruction renters. (US$ 65 million) (2011-16) Social Protection: People-based safety net programs that are Lebanon Electronic Voucher 7. Providing social traditionally used for channeling humanitarian assistance to Program** protection to vulnerable target populations, as defined by factors such as poverty or (2013 – 16) population in urban areas displacement status. Source: World Bank Program Documents; Draft Evaluation Report on the Bank’s Sites and Services Portfolio;24 World Bank 201525; and Medellín Laboratory: An exhibit of ten ongoing practices.26 Notes: *While the table and following section elaborate one example that was found more applicable to the displacement context for each solution, there are several examples of each approach. ** These are non-World Bank projects. *** Between 1973 and 1997, the World Bank financed 11 projects in India that had sites and services components, covering approximately 3,200 hectares and providing approximately 280,000 plots across 27 cities CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 19 the delivery of core infrastructure and social services necessary to build self-reliance of the displaced and to communities through strengthened participatory the host communities. The IDP Living Standards and community platforms called Community Development Livelihoods project provides support to improve living Councils (CDCs). It mitigates risks to social cohesion conditions and increase the economic self-reliance by including the forcibly displaced into decision- of targeted IDPs with skill-building, training, and making mechanisms such as representation in CDCs, provision of grants for business startups. consultative assemblies (“shuras”), city governance structures, and municipal advisory boards. 3. Bridging the divided city and fostering inclusion 1. Expanding the coverage and quality Engaging citizens in the decision-making process of basic infrastructure services strengthens links between residents and local ▲▲ Expansion and strengthening of infrastructure and governments, and it helps local authorities and service services is particularly important for Type 2 cities providers become more responsive and effective. Lack that face pressure on their services due to huge influx, of trust between citizens and the state and between and for Type 3 cities that may have suffered damage segments of the population, including migrants and the or destruction. Displacement situations often become forcibly displaced, is a serious risk to social cohesion protracted, and a lack of sustainable support to host – especially in cities where the forcibly displaced and communities is likely to lead to prolonged negative host communities coexist in close spatial proximity. outcomes. These communities are usually already Many of the Bank’s projects in MENA in Iraq, Jordan underserviced, and the investments needed to upgrade and Lebanon (see Box 2) are already successfully delivery can help remedy preexisting shortages. Solid incorporating strong citizen engagement and waste management is a key service affected by influx beneficiary feedback loop design features. Beyond that requires immediate attention. the Bank, governments and local authorities are The Bank-funded Gaza Solid Waste Management also making efforts to actively involve citizens and project assists communities with new approaches building inclusive cities. For example, Medellín for landfills and has involved the private sector for city spearheaded a social urbanism approach that recycling. Despite the difficult context, the project transformed it from a place characterized by crime, drug showed significant innovation in moving beyond a trafficking and domestic war into a model city. The city specific service task by using more efficient, socially used traditional urban design solutions to strategically acceptable, and environmentally-friendly mechanisms. locate new libraries, schools, and other public spaces The project also promotes citizen engagement and that provide citizens with opportunities for social public accountability through awareness campaigns exchange. It established a transportation system that moves tens of thousands of hillside residents each and the use of social media. day, dramatically cutting commuting times to jobs and services in the city center. In addition, each year the 2. Creating jobs mayor of Medellín briefs citizens on the city authority’s ▲▲ Support for livelihoods and jobs is particularly activities and involves them in the oversight of these important for Type 2 and Type 4 cities, where both the activities. This has helped citizens and municipal authorities build a relationship to work together for host communities and the displaced are competing for the development of the city. the same few opportunities. ▲▲ The evolution of the World Bank’s engagement in Azerbaijan reinforced that immediate recovery response 4. Managing risks to resilience and – including building and restoring infrastructure, post-disaster reconstruction services and housing – is critical, but it is equally ▲▲ Enhancing urban resilience is increasingly becoming 20 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge ▲▲ critical for responding to various shocks and stresses in urban areas there are large number of renters, and that cities face,27 including natural disasters, economic supporting the rental markets is equally important.29 downturns, conflicts, crime and violence, public Fifth, urban areas, especially low-income ones, are health epidemics, and infrastructure failure. In the characterized by inadequate infrastructure, and displacement context, a rapid influx of people can upgrading basic services will be critical. Sixth, there become a stress factor, for all the reasons discussed in should be assistance and facilitation for people living this note (pressure on services, economic prosperity, in camps to be integrated in urban neighborhoods.30 competitiveness, livelihood, and well-being). The World Bank has developed a systematic approach to There are well-established approaches and tools for assessing shelter and other needs, as well as providing enhancing urban resilience and managing disaster operational support in a post-disaster context that risks that could be relevant for displacement context. is very relevant for displacement context. The Port- The Damage and Needs Assessment (DNA) is a au-Prince Neighborhood Housing Reconstruction diagnostic tool that provides a basis for defining project provided funding for repairing and rebuilding the needs for recovery and reconstruction following homes with investments in neighborhood-level any disaster. It determines damage, loss, economic infrastructure. Since 70 percent of the people in impacts and impacts on human development with an camps were renters before the earthquake, the project aim to provide estimates for post-disaster recovery piloted the first rental voucher program in Haiti to and reconstruction needs. Recently, the World Bank support IDPs in moving out of camps into rental units has adapted the basic DNA tool in conflict-affected in neighborhoods. The program’s success prompted countries including Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, using the government to significantly scale it up through its remote-based techniques and social media analytics own funding to support people to move out of camps to analyze damage costs and destruction trends and into neighborhoods. of physical infrastructure. DNAs could also benefit countries receiving refugees, especially cities and 1. Providing social protection to the towns bordering countries in conflict (such as Northern vulnerable population in urban areas Jordan or Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley). In these settings, the tool could provide information that could be ▲▲ Social protection approaches are often an important used to formulate an immediate response to address part of the immediate response to displacement. For population shocks and stresses in terms of pressure vulnerable populations, approaches such as cash on services, housing, and employment, for example. It for work and public works are designed to provide could also generate much-needed data and diagnostics emergency income and livelihood support, while cash for a comprehensive understanding of the situation, transfers and vouchers can help ensure they receive and provide an opportunity to use remote assessments access to services. These approaches have the potential and social media analytics to inform development to channel humanitarian and development assistance responses. through a single instrument. ▲▲ Post-disaster housing reconstruction and affordable The Electronic Food Vouchers for Syrian refugees in housing experiences offer key lessons for the Lebanon program – implemented initially by the World displacement context. First, the density of housing in Food Programme (WFP) in partnership with the private urban areas requires a focus on an entire neighborhood. sector – reached about 75 percent of the entire refugee Second, without a strategy outlining a process for population in Lebanon and generated nearly 1,300 families to return to durable and safe homes (more jobs. Its success encouraged the government to extend permanent solutions), emergency or temporary shelter and scale-up the program to Lebanese nationals in could transform into a permanent slum.28 Third, self- addition to the displaced. Such cash transfer programs construction of houses should be combined with are appealing for urban displacement settings, since necessary financial and technical assistance. Fourth, the displaced are dispersed within the host population CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 21 and often move between places, making portable long-term urban resilience and sustainability of cities, assistance a key requirement. since housing, street, and public spaces are not easily changed once established. 4. Urban service provision is extremely critical for Lessons for approaches to urban forced improved living conditions and building trust with displacement local authorities. Local governments should invest in The experiences outlined in this section offer some over- urban services, considering most cities in MENA are arching key lessons from ongoing operations to address already suffering from inadequate service provision. displacement and other existing development approaches Displacement exacerbates the situation by adding extra pressure on services, often becoming a source that could be adapted to the displacement context. These of tension with discontent and competition around lessons are: services. 1. Moving from emergency approaches to more 5. Promoting social cohesion is crucial for sustaining development-oriented, medium-to-long term positive development outcomes. Rising social approaches is pivotal. Emergency approaches tensions between host communities and the displaced, to displacement are necessary but insufficient. and among the displaced, pose risks and threats to The protracted nature of displacement, and the development gains. Therefore, inclusive approaches fact that host areas and communities often face that promote social cohesion should be integral part similar challenges in terms of living conditions and of displacement responses. opportunities, require medium-term solutions that 6. Urban resilience provides a comprehensive response target both the displaced and the host communities. framework. Although there is little exploration of how 2. Urban displacement and its associated trends and urban systems respond to a rapid influx of new and impacts need to be integrated into urban planning often long-term residents displaced by conflict,31 it is and policies. Forced displacement is an increasingly manifest and critical to build resilient communities important factor driving urban growth trends. and institutions that are equipped to respond to Taking into account the scale, scope and impacts shocks and stresses arising from displacement. of displacement in the existing urban planning and 7. A systematic evaluation of interventions to address policies will help local governments respond to the displacement is needed. The continually evolving challenge effectively. nature of the displacement challenge warrants a more 3. Managing urban growth is beneficial in the long run. systematic evaluation of lessons learned from the Large influxes of displaced people often lead to sub- World Bank’s operational work as well as that of other optimal patterns of urban growth that will determine development partners. 22 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge 4. Policy implications for local, national, and international development actors Most urban local governments in MENA suffer from that respond to urgent community needs, enhance social inadequate service provision, lack of capacity, and cohesion, and promote resilience. The national government, inadequate resources – challenges that are compounded in turn, can expand coverage of infrastructure and craft when they experience a rapid influx of the displaced. policies to promote growth and jobs. The international The impacts of urban displacement amplify pre-existing community can also play a role in designing development stresses and stretches the limited capacity of local responses that complement traditional humanitarian governments, especially when population movements are approaches. Table 4 elaborates how the different actors large and happen quickly. Local governments are already can work together in a coordinated and integrated manner suffering from inadequate service provision, housing to address urban displacement. shortages and high unemployment rates, and a sudden The scale and nature of the displacement challenge population surge from an influx of displaced exacerbates requires governments and the international community the situation. Displaced people may further contribute to to mobilize resources. Conflict has a substantial fiscal the expansion and overcrowding of informal settlements impacts, including on neighboring countries, adding to and increase demands for urban services, conflicts over the financial burden on national and local governments. A land, and competition for employment and housing. recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) study found that Moreover, many of these municipalities are severely cash- countries bordering a high-intensity conflict zone in the strapped with limited revenue base and unpredictable MENA region recorded an average annual GDP decline of financing. In Jordan, for example, municipalities spent roughly 1.9 percentage points.33 In Jordan, it is estimated only 16 percent of their budgets on services and capital that the municipal sector alone would need US$ 203 million expenditures from 2010–12, with over half spent on from 2016–18 to cope with the crisis.34 The fiscal impact at salaries and wages. This trend is echoed across the region, the local level is even more acute, since local governments where municipalities face budgetary constraints due to do not receive revenue to fulfill additional demands. The a lack of fiscal decentralization, a limited revenue base, national government usually collects personal income and weak data collection and enforcement mechanisms.32 taxes, while local governments collect taxes on property These challenges are compounded by threats to social or corporate income. Both these taxes are less relevant for cohesion and political tensions arising from the presence the displaced, who tend to rent accommodations or live of displaced groups with different ethnic or sectarian in informal settlements. Moreover, many of the displaced affiliations. work in the informal sector, so their income or businesses With the refugee crisis now in a protracted state in the are less likely to yield taxes. While the international MENA region, a concerted effort from communities, local community is committed to provide assistance to host countries, the response is outpaced by the growing scale authorities, national government and international of need. For example, by November 2015, roughly US$ 1.07 community is needed. At the height of the humanitarian billion had been committed to the Jordan Response Plan (a emergency, getting services to people took priority. As three-year program of high priority interventions to enable the crisis has become protracted, development responses Jordan to respond to Syrian crisis), which corresponds to to forced displacement need to increasingly prioritize only 36 percent of the funding requirement.35 building sustainable governance systems for addressing the displacement challenges, both at the individual and The World Bank, in partnership with other development household level as well as for urban service delivery more and humanitarian actors, is well placed to take broadly. Local authorities, national governments and the operational development responses to the next level. international community should work together to address In recent years, the Bank has increased its focus on the challenge. Local governments can devise approaches fragility, conflict and violence in the poorest countries. In CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 23 2016, the World Bank Group International Development financing.36 The GCFF is structured so that each dollar in Association (IDA) for the poorest countries received a grants contributed to the facility can leverage US$ 4–5 record commitment of US$ 75 billion – doubling resources in concessional financing for development projects that to address fragility, conflict and violence to more than benefit refugees and the communities that host them. US$ 14 billion, including US$ 2 billion in earmarked Opportunities exist to deploy GCFF financing in the financing for refugees and their host communities. The support of a multi-sector development operation focused Bank has also sought to address the unprecedented burden on cites, something that should be explored going forward. of forced displacement on middle-income countries However, these approaches can only be implemented in (MICs) such as Jordan and Lebanon – which are not partnership with other development and humanitarian eligible for IDA grants – through the launch of the Global actors, something already fully reflected in the design of Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF), which bridges the the GCFF, which incorporates multiple partners. gap between humanitarian and development assistance TABLE 4 Actors and their roles in interventions for urban forced displacement Actors Interventions ▲▲ Develop integrated humanitarian and development approaches to forced displacement in cities ▲▲ Promote the integration of civil society in the development response architecture International ▲▲ Work increasingly through national and local government systems to deliver aid and services Partners ▲▲ Mobilize concessional finance to scale up response capabilities in affected countries and cities ▲▲ Improve the evidence base for better development policy decision making and programming ▲▲ Scale up and expand basic services and infrastructure based on a development, not emergency, approach ▲▲ Leverage delivery modalities of service delivery to increase confidence and build trust between Local communities and local authorities as a basis for social cohesion Governments ▲▲ Leverage support from national and international actors to address capacity and financing gaps ▲▲ Enhance capacity and resilience to better prepare for and respond to displacement challenges ▲▲ Promote local economic development and private sector participation for shared growth ▲▲ Adhere to policy standards related to refugees and internally displaced, as applicable and with reference to international commitments as entered into by the respective countries ▲▲ Implement coherent national polices in areas outside the direct control of local and municipal governments, specifically in the areas of labor markets, land/ housing markets, eduction and health ▲▲ Implement coherent national refugee and IDP policies, including alternatives to camps as the main Central response focus Governments ▲▲ Support building social cohesion between displaced and host communities as sine qua non for medium-term sustainability ▲▲ Support policies to enable transition from humanitarian first-response approaches to medium- development approaches ▲▲ Mobilize financing so that local governments can meet increased financing needs 24 / Bringing an Urban Lens to the Forced Displacement Challenge Finally, any policy dialogue and resulting assistance role rests with national and local authorities. Mitigating needs to be sensitive to the political dynamics around the impact of forced displacement on host communities is forced displacement. Governments from both origin and not a strictly technical agenda – whether in camp or urban host countries are at the center of the crisis. Their decisions settings. Political considerations often drive the host affect the scale and destination of population movements— authorities’ response, and need to be taken into account as well as the impacts and solutions in the short, medium, when supporting governmental efforts. A development and long terms. Across MENA, governments are taking a approach should expand the focus from reducing the fundamentally different approach in this respect, most vulnerabilities of the forcibly displaced to also mitigating clearly illustrated by the different displacement approach impacts on host communities. This holistic approach of and responses taken by, for example, Lebanon and Jordan. supporting the community as a whole can also reshape External development partners can support the adoption the political dialogue around forced displacement. and implementation of sound responses, but the primary CITIES OF REFUGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST / 25 ENDNOTES 13. The Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan (3RP) in response to the Syria Crisis brings together more than 240 partners in 1. UNHCR 2016. Detailed data and estimates on urban a coordinated, region-wide response to assist Syrian refugees displacement are lacking. Displaced people move within and and the communities hosting them. Read about the 3RP key between urban settings, between camps and urban areas, messages here: http://www.3rpsyriacrisis.org/wp-content/ and between countries. Many leave the region altogether, as uploads/2017/04/3RP-Interagency-Key-Messages.pdf. with the migration to Europe. This constant mobility makes 14. Government of Jordan 2015a. data on refugees and IDPs unreliable and highly inconsistent across countries. The most reliable data on registered 15. Martin, et al 2001. refugees comes from UNHCR’s registration database, called 16. Government of Jordan 2015a. ProGres. However, the reliability of the UNHCR data depends on how regularly it is updated, and UNHCR data captures only 17. Government of Jordan 2015b. registered refugees, which are subset of the total refugees 18. Calculated from Jordan census 2004 and 2015 in a country. Given the dynamic and highly mobile nature of (Government of Jordan. 2015a). refugee populations, there are significant gaps, especially 19. Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Ministry of Planning and regarding the location of refugees; there is little data on International Cooperation 2013. whether they are in camps, urban areas, and in which urban areas. 20. Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, et al 2012. 2. In official camps, there is better and more detailed 21. For more, see Fakih and Marrouch 2015. information about refugee numbers and whereabouts. This is 22. Ibid. ODI 2013. the case with Syrian refugees, who are mostly registered and monitored either by the government (as in Turkey and Jordan) 23. CMI 2017. or by UNHCR, the WFP, and NGO agencies. In this context, 24. World Bank 2013b. and despite a lack of robust information, analysis of data from 25. Between the early 1970s and 1998, the World Bank invested UNHCR and the governments of Jordan and Turkey provides US$ 14.6 billion in 100 sites and service projects across 53 the best initial basis to estimate how many forcibly displaced countries. Between 1973 and 1997, the World Bank financed people reside in urban areas. See notes under Table 1. 11 projects in India that had sites and services components, 3. The displaced in urban areas often prefer access to services covering approximately 3,200 hectares and providing and livelihood opportunities over short-term assistance. In approximately 280,000 plots across 27 cities. A recent Kenya, for example, refugees have been vacating refugee evaluation report assessed sites developed in Chennai (13 camps in increasing numbers or avoiding them altogether – sites; 57,000 plots) and Mumbai (15 sites; 88,000 plots despite losing out on food aid – in the belief that livelihood and 17,000 apartments) between 1977 and 1997. The draft opportunities and security will be better in Nairobi. ODI 2013. report can be found at: http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/ 4. World Bank 2015. en/371181489181586833/Sitesandservices-DRAFT-for- discussion-15Dec2016.pdf. 5. UNHCR 2017. http://www.unhcr.org/figures-at-a-glance.html 26. World Bank 2015b. 6. Crawford, et al 2015. 27. Alcaldía de Medellin 2011. 7. Jordan Population and Housing Census 2004 and 2015. Government of Jordan 2015a. 28. Meerow, et al 2016. 8. Note that urban statistics are very sparse across the region. 29. Habitat for Humanity 2012. In Lebanon, no census has been conducted since 1932. In 30. Sherwood, et al 2014. Iraq, no full census has been conducted since 1987, and the 31. For more about the IDA-financed Housing and Community 1997 census did not include the three Kurdish governorates. Infrastructure Reconstruction grant in Haiti post-earthquake, Only Jordan has had a recent census in 2015. As result, it is see: http://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2013/11/25/ impossible to analysis the impact on urban growth patterns rehabilitating-neighborhoods-and-providing-safe-housing-for- based on detailed census data. displaced-people-from-the-haiti-earthquake. 9. UN-Habitat 2015. 32. ODI 2017. 10. Verme, et al 2016. 33. IMF 2016. 11. Lebanon Support 2015. 34. Government of Jordan 2015b. 12. For information on Lebanon, see: http:// 35. Government of Jordan JORISS. worldpopulationpyramid.info/Lebanon/2016/. 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