Ji1HCTHTYT 3KOHOMHQeCKoro Pa3BHTHH BCeMHpHOrO 6aHKa COBMeCTHbIJ1: ~eHTp Ji13P-Mry Be3pa6oTH~a, CTpyKTypHas u nepeCTpOHKa 3KOHOMHKH H PLIHOK TpYAa B BOCTO'IHOH EBpOne H POCCHH noo peOaK1tUeU P. EM.1toBa, C. liOM.M.aHOepa U $. liopu1teJ/.Jtu MOCKBa JlIHq,PA-M 1995 BBK 65.5 COBMeCTHblH UeHTp nepenOLlrOTOBKH HHcTHTYTa 3KOHOMHQeCKOrO Pa3BHTH~ BceMHpHoro 6aHKa H 110CKOBCKoro rOCYLlapCTBeHHOrO )'HHBepcHTeTa HMeHH 11.B. flOMOHO·COBa PeLlaKUHOHHblH COBeT ueHTpa CHLlOPOBHQ A.B. (IlpeLlceLlaTenb COBeTa) An6erOBa H.11., EMuoB p.r., fleOHOBa T.r. C. KOMMaHLlep, .0. BYHoBHQ EDI Development Studies Unemployment, Restructuring and the Labor Market in East- ern Europe and Russia/Edited by Simon Commander and Fabrizio Coricelli Ee3pa6oTHua, CTPYKTypHa~ nepecTpoHKa 3KOHOMHKH H PblHOK TPY Lla B BOCTO'lHOH EBpone H POCCHH. - 11.: HHcIlPA-11, 1995. - 477 c. ISBN 5-86225-101-4 © 1995 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. 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OHa BhlpOC11a C 9% ,0;0 6011ee 4eM 3070~ AOB011bHO n011Hoe npenCTaB11eHHe 06 H3MeHeHHH COOTHOUleHHH Me)l(,D;y pa3JlH4HbIMH KaTerOpHlIMH areHTOB pblHKa Tpy,o;a ,o;aeT Ta611. 1-3. AHanH3 STOH Ta611HYbI n03B011l1eT BblllBHTb HeCK011bKO oc06eH- HOCTeH. Bo-nepBblx, xapaKTepHoH ,0;1111 Ha4anbHoro 3Tana pe$opM 4epToH lIBJllleTClI cYT,UeCTBoBaHHe MHor04HC11eHHoro C1101l Tpy,o;ocno- c06Horo HaCeJleHHlI, He CTpeMlIll!.erOClI n011Y4HTb pa60TY. HeCMOTpll Ha 3TO, ,o;anbHeHUlee COKpall!.eHHe 3aHlITOCTH B 1992 r. Bblpa:>Ka110Cb B l pOCTe K011H1.feCTBa 6e3pa60THblX • 2.AaHHbie no 4aCTHoMY ceKT0J>Y 3a 1990 r. nOJlY4eHbl H3 Laky 1993,a 3a 1992 r. - H3 Nagy and Sik, 1993. Ol.leHKH, npHBe,o;eHHble B 060HX STHX HCT04HHKax, MOryT 6hlTb HeCK011bKO 3aHH:>KeHhl. 3. 04eBH,o;HO, "ITO Ba:>KHOH oc06eHHOCTbIO 3TOro nepHo,o;a lIB11l1eTClI pOCT 4HC11eHHOCTH Tpy,o;ocnoc06Horo HaCe11eHHlI. 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BO-BTOPbIX, ,IlaHHble Ta6nl1Ybl nOKa3b1Ba1OT, 4TO ,IlnH nepeXO,ll- HOH 3KOHOMI1KI1 XapaKTepHO nepeMel!!eHl1e pa60THI1KOB 113 rocY,Ilap- CTBeHHOrO CeKTOpa B 4aCTHbIH, O,llHaKO I1X 411CTblH OTTOK npOI1CXO,lll1T Ha cpOHe O,llHOBpeMeHHOrO MaCCOBOrO COKpal!!eHI1H 11 C03,1laHI1H pa60411X MeCT B 06ol1x CeKTOpax. An.R 60Jlee ,Il0CTOBepHOH O!,!eHKI1 POJlI1 Ka:lK,llOrO 113 HI1X He06xo,lll1MO paCnOJlaraTb 60nee nO,llp06HOH I1HCPOp- Ma!,!l1eH 0 XO,lle pecpOpM. K 3TOMY Bonpocy Mbl el!!e BepHeMCH. 60Jlee nOJlHYIO KapTI1HY 113MeHeHI1H, CTOHI!!I1X YT06bl nOJlY411Tb 3a 3TI1MI1 Yl1cppaMI1, nepeH,IleM K 60nee ):{eTaJlbHOMY aHam13Y pa3BI1TI1.R rOCY,IlapCTBeHHOrO CeKTOpa. HeCMOTpH Ha TeH):{eH!,!111O K COKpa'-.!!eHI1IO, OH npo,llOJl)f(aeT 3aHI1MaTb B 3KOHOMI1Ke rOCnO):{CTBYlOl!!ee nOJlO)f(eHl1e, 11 B HeM 3aHHTa OCHOBHaH Macca pa60THI1KOB. n03TOMY He06xo,lll1MO nOHHTb cpaKTopbl, onpe):{eJlHlOl!!l1e pellleHI1H rocy):{apCTBeHHblX npe):{npl1.RTI1H B 06J1aCTI1 3aH.RTOCTI1 11 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl. Pa3BUTue rOCY.llapCTBeHHOrO CeKTOpa flPOU3(JoiJcm(Jo f'Jly60Kl1enOTpHCeHI1H,OXSaTI1Bllll1eccpepynpoMbllllJleHHOrOnp0I13BO,ll- 31 CTBa, HOCHJIH OAHOBpeMeHHO KaK 06l,l!Hfi, TaK H CTP)'KTYPHblfi XapaK- Tep, H COOTHOlUeHHe Me)l(J:lY 3THMH ABYMH 3lPlPeKTaMH C Te'leHHeM BpeMeHH nOCTOHHHO MeHHJ10Cb. OTAeJIHTb HX APyr OT Apyra O'leHb TPYAHO. TeM He MeHee, 3a 1990 r. MO)KHO OTAeJIHTb H3MeHeHHH, KacalOy!HecH ceKTopa B ~eJIOM, H lPaKTOPbl CTpYKTYpHofi nepeCTpofiKH BHyTpH ceKTopa. K03lPlPH~HeHT BapHa~HH TeMnOB naAeHHH npoH3BoA- CTBa no oTpaCJIHM npOMbIlUJIeHHOCTH B 3TOT nepHoA 6blJI BbllUe, '1eM B nOCJIeAYIOy!He rOAbl. McxoAH H3 Toro, 'ITO 06'beM npOH3BOACTBa B 3Ha'lHTeJIbHOfi CTeneHH onpeAeJIHeTCH H3MeHeHHHMH cnpoca, H, CJIeAOBaTeJIbHO, Me)KAy ABH)KeHHeM ueH H AHHaMHKofi o6'beMa npOH3- BOACTBa AOJI)KHa CYlJ,!eCTBOBaTb np.flMaH 3aBHCHMOCTb, Ha OCHOBe aHaJIH3a CTaTHCTHKH Mbl npHIllJIH K BblBOAY, 'ITO B 1990 r. BJIH.fIHHe H3MeHeHHH OTHOCHTeJIbHblX ueH Ha 06'beM 6blJIO nOJIO)KHTeJIbHbIM H CYlJ,!eCTBeHHbIM (Commander and Ugaz, 1993 r.). OAHaKo B 1991 r. lUOKOBoe B03AefiCTBHe Ha BeHrpHIO OKa3aJIO KpymeHHe COBeTa 3KOHOMH'IeCKOH B3aHMonoMol,l!H (C3B), KOTopoe npHBeJIO He TOJIbKO K YCKopeHHOMY COKpay!eHHIO 06'beMa npOH3BOACTBa, HO H HOCHJIO '1epTbl 06y!e3KOHOMH'IeCKOrO KpH3Hca, OKa3blBaH CXOAHoe B03AeHCTBHe Ha Bce OTpaCJIH. Me)KOTpaCJIeBble pa3JlH'IH.fI B cnaAe npOH3BOACTBa BHYTpH rOCYAapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa npOMbllUJIeHHOCTH Ha npOT.fI)KeHHH 1991 H 1992 IT. CrJIa)KHBaJIHCb. 3a 3THM MOryT CTO.flTb KpynHble BHYTpHoTpaCJIeBble H3MeHeHHH. npH cOKpay!eHHH B 1992 r. 06lYero 06'beMa npoH3soACTsa Ha 10%, Ha npeanpHHTHHX C '1HCJIOM 3aHHTbiX MeHee 50 '1eJIOBeK OH YABOHJIC.fI, XOT.fI AOJI.fI TaKHX npeAnpH.fITHH B cOBOKynHoM 06'beMe npOMbilUJIeHHOra npoH3BoACTBa OCTaB3JIaCb MaJIeHbKoH. XOT.fI kpH3HC C3B 3aTpoHYJI H cnpoc, H npe)lJ10)KeHHe, ero B03AeHCTBHe lUJIO rJIaBHblM 06p330M no KaHaJIaM npeAJIO)KeHH.fI H 6blJIO HaH60JIee OIJ.!YTHMblM B OTpaCll.flX, B 3KcnopTe KOTOPblX CTpaHbl C3B COCTaBJI.fIJIH OCHOBHYIO AOJIIO ToproBblx napTHepoB H 6blJIH npaKTH'IeC- KH He3aMeHHMbl, T3KHX, KaK MalUHHoCTpoeHHe. TeM He MeHee, rJI3BHYIO POJIb, oc06eHHO B nepMoA nOClle 1992 r., MrpaJIO cOKpalYeHHe cnpoca H3 BHyTpeHHeM pbIHKe, KOTopoe H 6blJIO rJIaBHblM npen.flTCTBHeM B 4 npoH3BoACTBeHHoH Ae.flTeJIbHOCTH npeAnpH.fITHH • nepBOHa'l3JIbHO H3MeHeHH.fI B 06JIaCTH 3aH.fITOCTH CJIeAOBaJIH 3a H3MeHeHHHMH 06'beMOB npoH3BoAcTBa C HeKoTopblM JIaraM, OAHaKO Y)Ke K 1990 r. MO)KHo 6blJIO Ha6JIIOAaTb3H3'1HTeJIbHoeycKopeHHenpoueccoBcoKpay!eHH.fIpa60'lHX 4. Kornai, 1993. B03MO)KHO, 'ITO 3% cOKpalYeHHH o6'beMa npoH3- BoACTBa npHXoAHTC.fI HaCeJIbCKoe X03.f1HCTBO H 06'b.flCH.fIeTC.fI 3acyxoH. 03CP, 1993. 32 Be3pat'JomutJa, nepecmpoi1Ka 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa MeCT B roCY,IlapCTBeHHOM CeKTOpe (PHC. 1-0, KOTopoe npHBeno K pOCTY npOH3BO,llHTeJIbHOCTH TpY,Ila. PeanbHan 3apa60THan nnaTa C yqeToM nOTpe6HTenbCKHX \.leH B 3TOT nepHO,ll coxpaHnnacb Ha HeH3MeHHOM ypoBHe, HO 06l,UHe H Y,IleJIbHble 3aTpaTbi Ha onnary TpY,Ila cYIl1eCTBeHHo nOBblCHJIHCb (PHC. 1-2). PHCYUOK l-l.BeHrpHn: 06l,UHe nOK333TeJIH p33BHTHn npOMbIWJleHHOCTH. HHAeKcbI 1989.1 - 100 120 110 100 90 80 70 60~~~-.-.-.-'-'-.-.-'-''-'-r-.-~ 1.1989 1990.1 1991.1 1992.1 - IIpoH3BoAHTeJll>HoCTL Tpy;o;a - 3aIDlTOCTl> - 06'LtiM npOH3BO;O;CTBa 3apa6omHQn Mama U 3aHRmocm'b rOCY,Il3pCTBeHHblH ceKTop ,IlO CHX nop cOXpaHReT B npoMblIUneHHocTH rOCnO,llCTBytOIYee nono)J(eHHe, O,llHaKO cHTyaUHn B HeM KopeHHblM 06p330M H3MeHHnaCb. Cy6CH,IlHpOBaHHe npe,llnpHnTHH 6blno ype3aHo, Ha HHX 6blnH HanO)J(eHbl )J(eCTKHe qlHHaHcoBble orp3HH'-IeHHn, H 6blno C3HKUHOHHPOB3HO HX 3aKphlTHe. B TO)J(e BpeMn, 3H3,-[HTenhHO Bhlpocn3 6eap36oTH!!a. '-[TO, KaK o)J(H,IlanOCb. ,Ilon)J(HO 6blJIO oTpaaHTbcn H3 BeH.ZPUR 33 S BeJUI\lHHe 3apa60THOH nnaTbl, Ha KOTOPYJO npeTeH,QOBanH pa60THHKH • PHCynOK 1-2. BeHrpHJl: 3apa6oTHaJl nnaTa H Y,QenbHble 3aTpaTbi Ha onnaTY TPY,Qa. lI~el(Cbl 1989.1 .. 100 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95~-'--r-r-~~-r~~~r-r-~'--r-r-'- 1.89 3.90 1.92 Mbl nOnblTanHCb Y nOBHTb CYl,I!HOCTb npOHCXO,QHBLUHX npolJec- COB C nOMOtyblO MO,QenH (CM. npHnO:lKeHHe). MO,QMb OnHCblBaeT Be,QeHHe neperOBOpOB 0 3apa60THOH nnaTe (KOOnepaTHBHaJl Hrpa). B xO,Qe KOTOPblX pa60\lHe H MeHe,Q:lKepbl ,QOn:lKHbl O,QHOBpeMeHHO YCTaHOBHTb 3apa60THYJO nnaTY H 3aHJlTOCTb; npH 'aTOM HaKna,QblBaIOT- CJI CTaH,QapTHble TeXHOnOrn\leCKHe H 61O,Q:lKeTHble OrpaHH\leHHJI. C TO\lKH 3peHHfI MeHe,Q:lKepOB, BblrO,QHOCTb KOHTpaKTa onpe,QenJleTCfI npH6blJIblO. a C TO\lKH 3peHHJI pa60\lHX - ypOBHeM peanbHOH 3apa6oT- 5. 3aMeTHM. \ITO CTaH,QapTHaJl KpHBaJl 4lHnnHnca ,QaeT B ,QaHHOM c1Iyqae HeBepHble olJeHKH: nH60 K03~eM npO,tlalK Ha BHYTpeHHeM pblHKe. B eM npoMblwneHHoro npoH3Bo,tlCTBa B peanbHoM BbipalKeHHH. B Ken311 npoMblwneHHocTb 3,096129 1.094 ,npyme oTp3cnH npoMblwneHHoCTH 9,533815 6,895 CTpoHTenbCTBo 3,515369 1.821 Tp3HcnopT 6,920739 2,815 Topl'OBnS 3,268527 1.948 Ycnym 5,061381 2,220 (KOHCT3HT3) 87,596755 46,358 R2 = 0,27105, F 60,19086, ypoBeHb 3Ha4HMOCTH F = 0,0000, N 2552. nepeMeHHble: 33BHCHMall nepeMeHHas - H3MeHeHHe '1HCneHHOCTH 3aHIITbiX 1992/1992 P33Mep - El - '1HCnO 3aHIITblX, KOHeq 1991 r. 06'beM npoH3BoACTB3, BblPY'lK3, yeHbI: REVMAX1 ; 1, ecnH BblPy'lKa s 1992 r. ysenH'IHBan3Cb REVMIN a 1. ecnH COOTBeTCTBYIOll.\311 BblPy'lKa YMeHbWHn3Cb, 7. 3,qeCb HcnoJlb3yeTC.H National Labor Market Center Forecast Survey. OCHOBaHHblH Ha npOBOLlHMOM LlBa pa3a B rOll onpoce npeLl- npH.HTHH. eM. Szekely 1933, a,b,c. BeHZPUR 39 j:taHHble Ta6nHI.\bI OTHOCIITCII K CnY'IalO, KorAa 3Ta BblpyqKa He MeHllnaCb; ORDERMA- X .. I, ecnH 06'beM 3aKa:lOB, nonyqeHHblx il>HpMaMH Ha KOHel.\1992 r. npeBblwaeT 06'beM 3aKa30B, nonyqeHHblii Ha KOHel.\1991 r; ORDERMIN z 1. ecnH 06'beM 3aKa:lOB, nonY'IeHHblX il>HpMaMH Ha KOHel.\ 1992 r., MeHbwe nonY'IeHHoro Ha KOHel.\ 1991 r •• AaHHble Ta6nHI.\bI OTHOCIITCII K HeH3MeHHoMY 06'beMY 3aKa:lOB; PSQUEZE = I, ecnH COOTHoweHHe BblPy'lKH H o6'beMa 3aKaaoB YKa3b1BaeT Ha CHHlKeHHe l.\eH; B OCTanhHblX cnyqallx ORDERMIN s 1 H REVMINI .. 1 HnH, COOTBeTCTBeHHO, O. H3MeHeHHe IOPH8H'IecKOro CTaTyca - rocYAapcTB'HIHble KOMnaHHH, COMM .. I, ecnH il>HpMa 6b1na KOMMepl.\HOnH3HpoBaHa K 4 KBapTany 1992 r.; PRIV .. I, ecnH il>HpMa 6b1na npHBaTH3HpoBaHa K 4 KBapTany 1992 r. YcnoBHlIIe nepeMeflHble no CeKTopaM COOP - KoonepaTHBbI, RT - aKI.\HoHepHble 06lQecTBa, LTD - TOBapHlQeCTBa C orpaflH'IeHHOii OTBeTCTBeHHOCTblO H APyrHe KOMnaHHH (B OCHOBHOM, '1aCTHble). n011yqeHHble oueHIill 3aCTaB11fllOT BepHyrbcfI K MbIC11H, '-ITO Ha 3aHflTOCTb BllHfleT KaK KOHblOHKTypa pblHKa, TaK H O:lKH,I:laHHe H11H 06bflB11eHHe CMeHbI CPOPMbl c06CTBeHHOCTH. TOT :lKe pe3y11bTaT n011yqaeTcfI npH 3aMeHe 06beMa 3aKa30B H YC110BHbIX !.leHOBbIX nepeMeHHblX Ha nOKa3aTe11H BblpyqKH. K03CPCPH!1HeHTbl ,/:l11f1 npe,l:lnpHfI- THfi HerOCY,I:lapCTBeHHoro CeKTopa (TOBapHlueCTB C orpaHH'-IeHHOfi OTBeTCTBeHHOCTblO H ,I:lPyrnx, r11aBHbiM 06pa30M, '-IaCTHblX npe,l:lnpHfI- THfi) H nOKa3aTe11H B11HflHHfI npHBaTH3a!.lHH CTaHOBflTCfI 3Ha'-lHMblMH npH yqeTe pa3MepoB npe,l:lnpHflTHfi, Cne!1HcpHIill OTpac11H H pfl,l:la nOKa3aTe11efi cHTya!1HH Ha pblHKe. 0TPHuaTe11bHble 3HaKH nOKa3aTe11efi KOMMep!.lHaJ1H3a!.lHH H npHSaTH3aYHH )'Ka3bISalOT Ha TO, "ITO npHsaTH- 3a!.lHH HarOCY,l:lapCTBeHHbIXnpe,l:lnpHflTHflXnpeowecm(Jo(Ja.rzapeopraHH- 3a!.lHfI npOH3BO,l:lCTBa, Bbl3BaBllIafi MaCCOBble YB011bHeHHfI B 1992 r. 8. KpOMe Toro, npH BKll104eHHH B ypaBHeHHfI OTpaC11eBbIX YC110BHbIX nepeMeHHblX 3TH K03cpcpH!1HeHTbl 6011bllleH '-IaCTblO OCTalOTCfI HeH3MeH- HblMH (XOTfi K03cp(jlH!1HeHTbl ,I:l11fl TonapHIueCTB C orpaHH4eHHOH OTBeTCTBeHHOCTblO H '-IaCTHblX npe,l:lnpHflTHH HeCK011bKO YMeHblllalOT- CfI). B11HflHHe pa3MepOB npe,l:lnpHflTliH, a TaK:lKe npo!1eCCOB, npOHCXO,l:lfl- IllHX B .npyrHx ceKTopax, 3a npe,l:leJlaMH HerocY,l:lapcTSeHHoro ceKTopa, He3Ha'-lHTe11bHO. nOCKOJlbKY MalllHHoCTpoeHHe, HaH6011ee nOCTpa,l:laB- llIafi OTpaCJlb, B3f1Ta KaK T04Ka oTc4eTa, Bce OTpaCJleSbie K03CPCPH!.lHeH- Tbl n0110:lKHTeJlbHbl, HO He BCer,l:la 3Ha4HMbi npH 6011blllOH Heo6bHc- HeHHOH ,I:lI1CnepCHH. npH paCKeHcKoro TpYAa (4TO, BepoflTHo, OTpa>KaeT cneUHcpHKY ccpepbl ycnyr), TaM 3aHflTa 60nee BWCOKafl Aonfl pa60THHKOB C YHHBepCHTeTCKHM 06pa30BaHHeM. BblflBneHHafl KBanHcpHKaUHOHHafl CTpYKTYpa 3aHflTb1X: Ha OAHOM nonIOce - He60nbwoe KonH4eCTBO BbICOKOKBanHcpHUHpOBaH- HblX cpaBHHTenbHO BblCOKoonna4HBaeMbiX pa60THHKOB npe06naAaHHe HeKBanHcpHUHpOBaHHblX HH3Koonna4HBaeMbiX pa60THHKOB, CKOHueH- TpHpOBaHHblX npeHMYlJ!eCTBeHHO B ccpepe ycnyr, - Ha APyroM nomoce - xapaKTepHa Anfl HOBblX 4aCTHblX npeAnpHflTHH, B T.4. H B ApyrHX 9 CTpaHax • Dpouecc YCKopeHHoro pOCTa 3aHflTOCTH B 4aCTHOM ceKTope HMeeT CBOH oco6eHHOCTH Ha ypOBHe OTpacneH H pernOHOB. 3Ha4H- TenbHoe 4HCToe COKpalJ!eHHe 4HcneHHOCTH 3aHflTblX B rOCYAapCTBeH- 9. eM. rnaBbl AaHHOH KHHrH no BonrapHH H Donbwe. 42 Be3paOomUl.Ja, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbfH.OK mpyaa HOM CeKTOpe, Ha KOTOpOe )'Ka3blSaeT Ta6J1Hua 1-8, He 6blJ10 HeO:lKH- naHHOCTblO. XOTfi 3TO npOHCXOnHJ10 H Ha npHsaTH3HposaHHblX Ta6J1Hua 1-7.PacnpeneJ1eHHe \laCTHbIX npennpHflTHH no OTpaCJ1f1M (s%) CeKTOP npennpHlITHlI HOBbie BHnbl )lpyme BbiBwHe Bcero CO 1oo%-blM nellTem.Hoc- qaCTHbie rocynap- qaCTHbie qaCTHbiM TH npennpHlI- CTBeHHble npennpH- KllnHTanOM THg-) npeAnpHlITHlI lITHlI 06pa6aTbiBaIO~all 19,0 14,3 42,9 54.5 26.4 npoMblwneHHOCT& CTpoHTenbCTBo 21,4 20.0 28.6 0,0 17,0 ToproBnll 26,2 31,4 0,0 27,3 26.4 3ApaBooxpaHeHHe 2.4 2,9 0,0 0.0 1.9 Bcero 100.0 100,0 100.0 100,0 100,0 0) CO~I • .1\0,1990 r. npennpHflTHfiX \laCTHOro CeKTOpa, CJ1e.nyeT OTMeTHTb. \ITO MaCWTa6bl ananTaUHH pa3MepOS npennpHflTHH TaM 6blJ1H ropa3nO MeHbWHMH. 3TO BHnHMO. nOKa3aTeJ1b Toro, \ITO K flHBaplO 1992 r. npHBaTH3HposaHHbie £IlHpMbI B ueJ10M HaXOnHJ1HCb B J1}'\1weM COCTOflHHH. \leM OCTaSWHeCfI B rocynapCTseHHoM ceKTope. KaK H npennoJ1araJ10Cb, TeMnbl pOCTa 3aHflTOCTH Ha HOSblX npennpHflTHflX, oc06eHHo S TOprOBJ1e, OKa3aJ1HCb BbICOKHMH. Ho npH 3TOM HanO Y\lHTbIBaTb, \ITO oueHKa npOH3BOnHJ1aCb no OTHoweHHIO K O\leHb MaJ1eHbKOH HCXOnHOH 6a3e. ,.[(aHHble no CTpOHTeJ1bCTBY C03nalOT 06J,Uy1O KapTHHy nenpeCCHH, XOTfi HX HHTepnpeTaUHfi MO:lKeT OKa3aTbCfI HeCKOJ1bKO HCKa:lKeHHOH H3-3a BJ1HflHHfI ce30HHoro ipaKTopa. npH aHaJ1H3e pernOHaJ1bHblX oc06eHHoc- TeH nBH:lKeHHfI 3aHflTOCTH npe:lK.Qe Bcero 6pocalOTcfI S rJ1a3a pe3KHe OTJ1HI.IHfI npennpHflTHH BOCTO\lHblX pernOHOB OT scex OCTaJ1bHbIX. TeHneHUHfi K COKpatyeHHIO I.IHCJ1eHHOCTH pa60THHKOB CHJ1bHee Bcero npOflBJ1f1eTCfI Ha rocynapcTBeHHblX npennpHflTHflX, HO neHCTByeT TaK:lKe H Ha npHBaTH3HpOBaHHbIX, H Ha SHOBb C03naHHbiX l.IaCTHblX npennpHflTHfiX. Pe3YJ1bTaTbl nepenHCH nOKa3aJ1H, I.ITO Bce HOBbie l.IaCTHble npennpHHTHH BOCTOI.IHblX pernOHOB OTHOCHTCfI K cipepe P03HHI.IHOH TOprOBJ1H, H MO:lKHO YTBep:lK.QaTb, I.ITO COKpatyeHHe 3aHflTOCTH S l.IaCTHOM ceKTope - 3Toro J1HWb OTpa:lKeHHe nenpeCCHBHO- ro COCTOHHHH 3KOHOMHKH perHOHa. YrJ1y6J1eHHe KpH3Hca rocynap- CTseHHblX npOMbIWJ1eHHbIX npennpHflTHH OCB060:lK.QaeT nOJ1e neflTeJ1b- 43 HOCTH ,nJlfl C03,naHHH HOBblX pa604HX MeCT B 4aCTHOM CeKTOpe. Ta6J1Hua 1-8 . .H3MeHeHHH 3aH.fITOCTH. CeKTOP H pernOH rOCY,Qap- I1pHBaTH3H- ,l:{pyme '1ae- Beero '1aeTHble CTBeHHble poBaHHble THbleo) 06pa6a TblBalO~all -49.9 -13,2 0,0 -10,9 npoMblWJleHHOCTb CTpoHTeJlbCTBO -53.1 -8,0 -8.0 TOproBJlII -15,5 1.7 47,1 11,8 YCJlym 29,5 133,3 14,5 38.8 50,0 50,0 -33,9 -2:7.0 3,1 -16,0 OKPecTHOCTH 5y- -2:7.5 10,0 10,0 ,QaneWTa BOCTo'lHble ropo,Qa -60,1 -28.6 -11.4 -11,7 -12,2 -1.1 13,8 -0,9 - Bet ,D,aHHlJU: 8) C03JJ.AflH.bIc, )1,0 1990 r. HAEM 11 YBOJ1bHEH.HE. I1H¢opMaUHH 0 KOJIH4eCTBe npHH.fITblX Ha pa60TY H YBOJIeHHblX OTpa:lKaeT He TOJIbKO pernOHaJIbHble pa3JIH4HH. HO H pa3JIH4HH B nOJIHTHKe 3aHHTOCTH rocy,napCTBeHHblX H 4aCTHbiX npe,llnpHHTHH. 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B Ta6mule 1-9 npe.QCTaBneHo npH6nH3HTenbHoe pacnpe.QeJIe- HHe l.IHCJIa npHHY.QHTeJIbHbIX yaonbHeHHH no npe.QnpHflTHfiM pa3JIHl.IHblX 20 npennpHflTHfi 06pa6aTbiBalOIl\all npo- 23.1 15,4 7,7 7,7 46.2 MblWJIeHHOCTb CTpOHTeJIbCTIlO 0,0 33,3 0,0 0,0 66,7 ToproBJIIi 37,5 25,0 12,5 0,0 25,0 YCJJym 75,0 0.0 25,0 0,0 0,0 3.z:tpallooxpaHeHHe 100,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0pHBaTH3HpOBaH- Hble npennpHflTHfi 06pa6aTbiBalOll\all npo- 16,7 16,7 33,3 0,0 33,3 MblWJIeHHOCTb TOproBJIIi 66,7 33,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 YCJJym 100,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 B naHHoM cnyt.Jae TaK)I(e BeCbMa 3aMeTHbi pernOHanbHble pa3JIHt.JHfI: Bbl60pKa no 3ananHOMY pernOHY nOKa3blBaeT ropa3nO 60nee BblcOKHe K03tPtPHUHeHTbi HaHMa, oco6eHHO Ha npHBaTH3HpOBaHHbiX npennpHRTHflX. ,[{nfl tPHPM pernOHa, oco6eHHO .rlnfl t.JaCTHbIX H npHBaTH3HpOBaHHbIX, xapaKTepHa BblCOKafi .rlOJIR BaKaHCHH, rnaBHblM 06pa30M. nnfl KBanHtPHUHpOBaHHblX pa60t.JHX. HPKO npOflBnReTCR cneUHtPHKa OTpaCJIeH. B nepByJO Ot.Jepenb. CTpOHTeJIbCTBa, JVlfI KOToporo xapaKTepHbl OTHOCHTenbHO HH3KHe KootPtPHUHeHTbI HaHMa pa60t.JeH CHnbl. COBepweHHO ot.JeBHnHO, t.JTO TaKHe HH3KHe YPOBHH npHeMa Ha pa60TY Be.rlYT K B03HHKHOBeHHJO cneUHtPHt.JeCKHX "TpaeKTOpHH" nBH)I(eHHfI pa60THHKOB Ha pblHKe Tpyna (K '3TOMY Bonpocy Mbl BepHeMCR HH)I(e). XapaKTepHO. t.JTO nepexon C o.rlHorO MeCTa pa60Tbl 46 Be3pa6omulJa, nepeCmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U Pbl.HOK mpyiJa Ha Apyroe OCYYleCTBn1leTC1I rnaBHblM 06pa30M He lIepe3 cnY:lK6bl 3aH1ITOCTH, a no nHlIHblM peKOMeHAaUH1IM H no 3HaKOMCTBY. np06neMa TpYAOYCTpOnCTBa 6e3pa60THblX, KaK B rOCYAapCTBeHHblH, TaK H B lIaCTHblH ceKTOp, OCTaeTC1I KpanHe OCTPOH. BblBlllHe 6e3pa60THbie COCTaBJIlIIOT nHlllb nOT 06tyero lIHCJla npHH1ITbiX Ha pa60TY. 3apa6omHall Mama (f'lacmHOM ceKmope .llaHHble Ta6nHUbi 1-10 nOATBep:lK,l:lalOT BblCKa3aHHoe B APyrHX rnaBax MHeHHe, liTO npeAnpH1ITH1I HapO:lK,l:lalOtyerOC1I lIaCTHOrO ceKTopa B BOCTOllHOn EBpone B uenOM CTpeM1ITCSI CBeCTH onnaTY TpYAa K MHHH- ManbHOMY YPOBHlO. Bce lIaCTHble !fJHPMbl, 3a HCKJllOlIeHHeM ToprOBblX, 06blllHO nnaTSIT MeHbllle, lIeM pOACTBeHHble HM roCYAapCTBeHHble, a cpeAH lIaCTHblX, nonaBlllHX B Bbl60PKY, MeHbllle Bcero - npHBaTH- 3HpOBaHHble. npe06na):{3HHe B lIaCTHOM ceKTope HH3KOH onnaTbl TpYAa nOATBep:lK,l:laeTC1I nOKa3aTen1lMH AonH pa6OTHHKOB, nOnY4alOtyHX MHHHMaJIbHyto 3apa60THyto nnaTY. KaK nOKa3blBaeT Ta6nHua I-II, AOn1l TaKHX pa60THHKOB oc06eHHo BblCOKa Ha BHOBb C03AaHHbIX' lIaCTHblX npeAnpH1ITH1IX, B nepByto ollepeAb, c!fJepbl ToprOBnH H ycnyr. B uenoM C03AaeTC1I BnellaTneHHe, liTO !fJOH):{ 3apa60THOH nnaTbl lIaCTHblX npe):{npH1ITHn Man. C Y4eTOM :lKe CO!JHanbHOH c!fJepbl 3TH pa3nHlIH1I OKa3b1BalOTC.H etye 60nblllHMH. BonblllHHCTBO rOCYAapCTBeH- HblX npeAnpH.HTHn 3a npeAenaMH BYAanelllTa, B nepBYlO OllepeAb, 06pa6aTbiBalOtyeH npOMbllllneHHOCTH, OKa3blBalOT pa60THHKaM MHorne BHAbl MaTepHanbHOn nOMOtyH: npeAOCTaBneHHe :lKHnb.H, TpaHcnopT, onnaTa OTnYCKOB. B uenOM pa3Mepbl OKa3aHH1I nOMOtyH np1lMO H HenocpeACTBeHHO 3aBHC.HT OT pa3MepOB npeAnpH1ITHH H HaJIHlIHSI npo!fJco103a. B npOTHBOnOnO:lKHOCTb HM, lIaCTHble !fJHPMbl BblnnallHBalOT noc06HSI B ropa3AO MeHblllHX 06'beMaX, a CTpOHTenbCTBa H apeHAbl :lKHnb1l He npOH3BOASIT. EcnH BKJllOlIHTb TaKHe HeAeHe:lKHlile !fJOPMbl onnaTbl Tpy):{a, TO B lIaCTHOM ceKTope (3a HCKJIlOlIeHHeM ToprOBnH) TPYAOBble ):{OXOAbl OKa:lKyTC1I etye HH:lKe no cpaBHeHHlO C rocy):{ap- CTBeHHbIM. npH 3TOM cne):{YeT OTMeTHTb, lITO nOA06Hyto nOMOtyb OKa3blBalOT 06blllHO nHlllb KpynHble npeAnpH.HTH.H, H BHe 3TOH rpynnbl pa3pblB 3HallHTeJIbHO MeHbllle. CXOAHble pa3nHlIH.H cYYleCTBYlOT H B MeTo):{ax YCTaHOBneHH1I 3apa6OTHOn nnaTbl. no nOBoAY neperOBopOB 0 3apa60THOH nnaTe 6blnH onpOllleHbl TpH rpynnbl pecnOHAeHTOB: cne!.!HanHCTbl, KBanH!fJH!.!HpO- BaHHbie pa601lHe H HeKBanH!fJH!.!HpOBaHHble pa601lHe. OHH 6blnH pa:3,l:(eneHbl Ha rpynnbl: C onnaTOH TpYAa no nHlIHOH AorOBopeHHOCTH; 47 Ta6J1Hua 1-10. CpenH.R.R 3apa60nca.R nJlaTa (8 !fi0puHmax) CeKmop rocyoapcm- llpu8amu3u- IlpYlue "lac- f{acmHble 8eHHble po8aHHble mHblifi 8celo 06pa6aTWBaIO- 40232 28106 31200 30010 ~aR IlpoMWW- JleHHOcn. CTPOHTeJlbCTBO 38165 27233 27233 TOproBJlR 33385 26771 43938 41077 YCJlyrH 55172 21429 51671 49345 3~paBooxpaHeHHe 18270 33333 33333 -Her_Ix a) C03A8HH>le )1,0 1990 r. Ta6J1Hua 1-11. nOJlyqaTeJ1H MHHHMaJ1bHOH 3apa60THOH nJ1aTbl (8 % K o61J.leU "lUCIleHHUCrTIU pa6omHuKolI) llpu6amU3Upo- BcelO "lacmHble 8aHHble 06pa6aTblSalOwa .R 4,5 0,0 7,3 npOMblWJ1eHHOCTb CTpOHTeJ1bCTSO 2,1 0,0 11,9 ToproBJ1.R 18,8 40,0 53,3 YCJ1yrn 0,0 0,0 100,0 3npasooxpaHeHHe 0,0 0,0 0,0 no norosopeHHOCTH C npolPcolO30M; no aHaJ10mH C npyrnMH npennpH.R- TH.RMH ceKTopa (rocynapCTBeHHblMH HJ1H "IaCTHblMH); "no cnpaSenJ1H- BOCTH"; B COOTBeTCTBHH C pemOHaJ1bHblM ypOSHeM; no YPOBHIO, npennHCblBaeMOMY ueHTpaJ1H30BaHHoH nOJ1HTHKOH nOxonOB. HaH60J1b- wee pacnpOCTpaHeHHe nJ1.R Bcex KaTeropHH pa60THHKOB HMeeT OnJ1aTa TPyna no J1H"IHO" norOBopeHHOCTH, a Ha rocynapCTBeHHblX npennpH.R- TH.RX WHPOKO npHMeH.RJ1aCb TaK)Ke OnJ1aTa no aHaJ10mH C npymMH npennpH.RTH}lMH ceKTopa. Pe3YJ1bTaTbl lPaKTOpHOrO perpeCCHOHHoro aHaJ1H3a, rne 3aBHCHMblMH nepeMeHHblMH CJ1Y)KaT OTHOCHTeJ1bHa.R 3apa60THa}l nJ1aTa H KOH'bIOHKTypa MeCTHoro pblHKa Tpyna, a He3aBH- CHMblMH nepeMeHHblMH -lPopMa c06CTBeHHocTH, pa3Mepbl npennpHRTH.R (no "IHCJ1eHHOCTH 3aH.RTblx) H HaJ1H"IHe npoIPcolO3a nOKa3blsalOT, "ITO ,QJ1.R rocynapcTBeHHblX npennpHRTHH rJ1aBHbIMH opHeHTHpaMH npH 48 Be3pa6omUl.la, nepecmpoi11Ca 31COHOMUIru U PblH01C mpy(}a YCTaHOBneHHH 3apa6OTHOH nnaTbI HMHIOTCH CpeaHHH YPOBeHb 3apa60THOH nnaTbI B CeKTOpe H YCJ10BHH MeCTHOrO pbIHKa Tpyaa. nepBbIH H3 Ha3BaHHbiX .. 3apaOOT' JIorapa .....oxo.... JIorapR.. lIoq...,. HOa MaN K& aoro 3apaoonca )l(eHIII,KHLI .2,18 -2,82 -2,99 -1,14 (-13,5) (.13,4) (-14,9) (.fI,!) Bo3P8CT 0,043 0,043 0,021 0,024 (8,1) (8,0) (5,3) (4,2) Bo3pa.... .It Itllll,llJ>ayo .0,005 .O,OOS .0,002 .0,002 (·7,3) (-1,4) (·3,8) (-3,4) fipG.ll.OJUl.HTeJl"'OC'I'L 0,015 0,016 o,on 0,082 06Y"eHllJI' (19,2) (19,1) an,3) (19,9) fipo_lWleHROCTL, oP- 006cneR- (2,4) (2,7) (2,8) (2,1) 110<1'11 '1aCTa... IlpeJljlpaJrTHJt 0,053 0,063 0,088 0,004 (2,0) (2,4) (3,5) (1),1) Koo ....alln 7,830 7,891 8,1:14 2,951 (60,9) (68,9) (74,6) (24,2) R' 0,2946 0,2930 0,3305 0,2525 F 86,65 85,92 101,63 68,51 n pH~qaRHe: BLI60po'UfGe. 06c.ne,a,OBallHe HMP (caMO~l'T1tJe He BlUnOqaJOTCJI). llodp06Hf!f! 0 dUHQMUKf! 3QHRmOCmU Ii 1991-92 Zl. \.fTo6bl ny'lwe YJICHHTb npHpoJ:lY nepexOnHoro nepHOna, Heo6xonHMO 60nee nOnp06HO H3y'lHTb nepepacnpeneneHHe pa60'leH CHnbl Me:lKJlY rocynapCTBeHHblMH, '1aCTHbIMH H npyrnMH npennpHJITHJIMH. HaH60nee nonHoe npenCTaBneHHe 0 nepeMeHax Ha pbIHKe Tpyna BeHrpHH naeT HI-tp. no weCTH rpynnaM areHTOB, neHCTBYIOll\HX Ha pbIHKe TPyna, 6b1na COCTasneHa Ta6nHua 1-13. Ee HenOCTaTOK COCTOHT s TOM, 'ITO OHa He OTpa)l(aeT B03MO)l(- Horo nepexona pa60THHKa. OCTalOll\erOCJI 3aHJITbiM S proynbTaTe npHBaTH3aUHH H3 rocynapCTseHHoro s '1aCTHbIH ceKTOp. 3aHH)I(eHHbie 0UeHKH OTMe'leHbl (-), a 3aSblweHHbie - (-). K C'IaCTblO, nepexOnbl 50 Be3pa6omuqa, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyda Me:lKJlY CeKTOpaMH, CBfl3aHHbIe C YSOJlbHeHHHMH, OTMe4eHbI a,l:leKBaTHO. OHH nOKa3aHbi B Ta6JlHye 1-1411. Ta6J1Hua 1-13. nepexon H3 KaTeropHH (i) B KaTeropHlo 0>, MapT 1991 - MapT 1992 r. (j) (i) roc. npen;- tfacTHhie 6e3pa6o- BHe pa- Y'laLUHeC.II neHCHO- npH.IITHIl npen;npH- THI(a 6o'leii CHlIhI Hephl .IITHII roc. npen;- 0.832- 0.076- 0,005- 0,001- 0,040- npH.IITHIl tfacTHb!e 0.889- npen;npH- .IITHII 6e3pa6o- 0,112 0.068 0,789 0,012 0,012 0.006 THI(a BHe pa6o- 0,031 0,018 0,018 0,903 0,004 0,027 'leu CHlIhl YqaLUHeCR 0,071 0,037 0,054 0,010 0,828 0,000 neHCHO- 0.002 0,001 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,997 Hephl rIpHMe'llaHUe: no rocy.n.apCT8eHHLIM npelJ,t1pHct'HlfM; B 99,6'1 CJlytIae8" )J.aHHhle 3a I99J r. OTp3.)kalOT COCTO~HHe lIa 31 MapTa. be~pa60tHLIe II JIuua, He lIXO.u,nJlHe B eo<:raB ~KOHoMHt.teCx." axTHBHOf'O HaceJleHHJf: eocTawttUO c;ornaCHo KJlaCCH¢HKaUIIB peCtlOH.R,eHTOB. rOCY,ll,apCneHIfLJt It qaCTHbJe npeJUlpHflHJt: ynnbl. YHCJlO, CTO.HlMee Ha ,l:IHarOHa- JlH nJl.H KaTeropHH "6e3pa60THble' nOKa3bIBaeT BepO.HTHOCTb nOBTopHO nonaCTb B COCTaB 6e3pa60THb1X. 12. COrJlaCHO npenBapHTeJlbHblM pe3YJlbTaTaM, npl1BeneHHblM B Nagy 1993 (c. 43) H YCTHOH HHllcTa'rycai N=594. Ta6J1Hua 1-15. BepO.RTHOCTb TPY.ll0YCTpoHcTBa pa60THHKOB, OKa3aB- UlHXC.R 6e3pa6oTHblMH B HIOHe 1991 r. B rocY.llapCTBeHHblH HllH yaCTHblH ceKTop K HO.R6plO 1992 r. CTaTYC AO nOTepH pa60TbI Pa60THHKH rocYAap- Pa60THHKH qac- Be3pa60T- CTBeHHblX npe.o;npHSlTHH THblX npe.o;npHI1THH Hble Pa60THHKH rocy.o;apCTBeH- 0,107 0.111 0,782 HblX npeAnpHliTHH Pa60THHKH qaCTHblX npe.o;- 0,128 0,139 0,793 npHliTHH BblnycKHHK WKonbl 0,241 0,205 0,554 ,[(pyroe 0.142 0,071 0,787 Bcel'o pa60THHKOB 0,133 0,130 0,734 npHMeqanHe: a.loop", MOT (N=650). I1CTOquHK! Gcdfrey 1993. 1-13 HH¢opMaUHH 3THX .llBYX HCTOYHHKOB MO)l(HO C.llellaTb HeCKOllbKO BbIBO.llOB. Bo-nepBbIX, B Bbl60pKe HHP BepO.RTHOCTb nOna.llaHH.R B YHCllO 6e3pa6oTHbiX no 060HM ceKTopaM npHMepHO HblX B Ta6llHue 1-13, 3a HCKlllOyeHHeM pOCTa KOJ1HyeCTBa TPY.llO- YCTpoeHHblx 6e3pa6oTHblX (c 18.llo 27%) H KOJ1HyeCTBa 6e3pa6oTHbIX, Bbl6blBUlHX H3 COCTaBa pa604eH CHJ1bI (c npH6J1H3HTellbHo 4 .llO 20%). COOTHOUleHHe Me)l(.!lY rocY.llapCTBeHHbIM H yaCTHbIM ceKTopOM He H3MeHHllOCb. 52 Ee3pa6omu'tJa, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyda OAHHaKOBa. OAHaKO PHCK nOTepH pa60Tbl B roCYAapCTBeHHOM CeKTOpe BblWe, nOCKOJlbKY, no AaHHblM nepenHCH MOT, 60JlbWaH tIaCTb (83%) npeAnpHHTHH, rAe 6blJlH 3aHHTbl 6e3pa60THble AO nOTepH pa60Tbl, OTHOCHTCH K rocYAapCTBeHHoMY ceKTopy. BO-BTOPbIX, no AaHHblM 060HX 06CJleAoBaHHH, 6e3pa6oTHble HMelOT npH6J1H3HTeJlbHO paBHble waHCbl nOJlyqHTb pa60TY H B rocYAapCTBeHHoM, H B tIaCTHOM ceKTope. ECJlH yqeCTb, tITO AOJlH tIaCTHOrO ceKTopa MeHbwe, H3 nora CJleAyeT, tITO K03CPCPHUHeHTbl HaHMa B tIaCTHOM ceKTope OTHOCHTeJJbHO Bblwe. B-TpeTbHX, pe3YJlbTaTbl 06eHX nepenHceH onpOBepralOT MHeHHe 06 oco6o Ba)I(HOH POJIH tIaCTHoro ceKTopa B TPYAoYCTpoHCTBe 6e3pa6oT- HbIX. B AeHCTBHTeJJbHOCTH npe06J1aAaeT tIHCTblH OTTOK pa60tIeH CHJlbI H3 tIaCTHOrO ceKTopa, a He 06paTHaH TeHJ].eHUHH. Pa3Mepbl tIHCTOrO OTTOKa pa60THHKOB H3 rOCYAapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa elJ!e 60Jlbwe. B-tIeTBepTblX, pOCT 3aHHTOCTH B tIaCTHOM ceKTope npOHCXOAHT 3a CtIeT nepexoAa TYAa pa60THHKOB, HenocpeACTBeHHO 3aHHTblX Ha rOCYAap- CTBeHHblX npeAnpHHTHHX HJlH 3a CtIeT npHBaTH3aUHH nOCJleAHHx. flpHBJletIeHHe 6e3pa6oTHblX He3HatIHTeJlbHO. flo AaHHblM Ta6J1H!.lbl 1-16, 6blBwHe 6e3pa6oTHble COCTaBJlHIOT He 60Jlee 10% npHHHTblX Ha pa6oTY. JlOJlH 3TOH KaTeropHH B tIHCJle nOCTynHBwHX B 4aCTHblf:f ceKTop (3a CtIeT 3anOJlHeHHH BaKaHcHH, JlH60 3a C4eT npHBaTH3a!.lHH) elJ!e HH:lKe - OHa He npeBblWaeT 5%. Ta6J1Hua 1-16. PacnpeAeJleHHe BHOBb npHHHTblX Ha pa60TY B COOTBeT- CTBHH C HX CTaTYCOM AO BblxoAa Ha pa6oTY. HOBbie pa6oTOAaTeJlH HOBbie pa60THHKH CTaTYc B 1991 r. rOCYAapcTBeH- 'lIacTHblH rocYAapCTBeH- 'lIacTHblH HblH ceKTop ceKTop HblH ceKTop ceKTop 3aHlITbie B rOCYAapCTBeHHOM 55.2 51,1 71,3 ceKTope 3aHlITbie B 'IaCTHOM ceKTope 11,0 28,1 24,6 Se3pa6oTHbie 12.4 8,1 27,7 11,3 Apynte 21,4 12.7 47.7 17,4 ~ HeT )J.a,HllbIX. ITpHMelJaHHe: Bbl60pKa: HHP. "'BHOBb npKJUl'TWMH Ha ",pi.ci Heliu.lJ!p 1991, Deoombcr, Ta6JIHya 1-18. YCJIOBHa.fl BepO.flTHOCTb CH.fITH.fI C Y'l¢Ta B Tel./eHHe t:\Byx MeC.fI!.,!eB nOCJIe t t:\Heii npe6blBaHH.fI 6e3 pa60Tbl (20.07-20.09 1991 r.) t 90 0.045 150 0,092 210 0,057 270 0,108 330 0,248 450 0,026 510 0,035 570 0,015 HCTO'lHHK' OMK MunIoior<">piaci Heliutb!p, BLmY"H Ja HlOn.·o".6p•• 56 Be3pa60mul.Ia, nepeCmpoUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa nOqeMY K03qUj:lH!.lHeHT BblX0.lla H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THbiX B 1990-91 IT. 6bIJ1 TallraHe - TpanH!.lHOHHO .IlHCKPHMHHHPyeMaH H BbmOJIHHBlliaH HenpeCTH)KHYIO pa60TY rpynna - HBJIHIOTCH "JIaKMYCOBOH 6yMa)KKOH" MaprnHaJIH3a!.lHH 6e3pa60THb1X. YpOBeHb 6ropa60TH!.lbl Cpe.llH !.!blraH 13 60JIee, qeM B qeTblpe pa3a npeBbilliaJI cpe./lHHH no CTpaHe • PaCqeTbI, onHpaBlliHeCH Ha .IlaHHble no pernoHaM (Kolle) 1992), nOKa3bIBaIOT. "ITO KOJIHqeCTBO !.lblraH, npO)KHB3IOIJ.lHX B ,IlaHHOR MeCTHOCTH HMeJIO 60JIblliOe 3HaqeHHe ,IlJIH 06'bHCHeHHH Pa3JIHqHR B ypOBHHX pernOHaJIb- HOH 6e3pa60TH!.!bI. a. CJIe.llOBaTeJIbHO. H KOJIHqeCTBa JIH!.l. nOnOJIHHIO- IJ.lHX qHCJIO 6e3pa60THb1X. B 1990 r. Ho B 1991 r. cHTya!.lHH MeHHeTCH. MO)KHO npOcJIe.llHTb B3aHMOCBH3b Me)K.lly KOJIHqeCTBOM !.lblraH H npo.llOJI)KHTeJIbHOCTbIO 6e3pa60TH!.lbl, HO npHTOK HOBblX 6e3pa6OTHbix H ypoBeHb 6e3pa60TH!.lbl Y)Ke He 3aBHCHT OT .IlaHHOR nepeMeHHoH. 113HaqaJIbHO BblCOI .1:1: . II 7 0 ~I v :>. g5 :>. t::'4 ,.Q 53 = 8,2 ;>. 1 0 I 2 II 10 14 18 22 26 BepOfiTHOCTb nOJlyqHTb pa6ory, HJlH 3TO KaCaeTClI JlHWb He,nOJlrO npe6b1BalOl,l!HX 6ea pa60Tbl. ,ll;JlfI OTBeTa Ha 3TOT Bonpoc Heo6xo,llHMO HMeTb BpeMeHHble Pfl,nbI BepOfiTHOCTH Tpy,n0YCTpOHCTBa, KOTOPbIMH Mbl He pacnOllaraeM. Ha OCHOBaHHH HMelOl,l!eHCfI HHKeHHfI YPOBHfI 6e3pa6oTHUbi r (t,90) aa 1991 r.; nO,llp06Hee CM. KoIIO, 1993. 17.11 no ,naHHbIM CJlY)K6bl pernCTpaUHH 6eapa6OTHblx, H no ,naHHbIM MOT, 6e3pa6oTHua ,nOCTHrJJa MaKcHMYMa B flHsape 1993 r., a aaTeM. Ha npOTfI)KeHHH 1993 r., cOKpaTHJlaCb npHMepHo Ha 1%. Bempufl. 59 3UMf!I.IUHUe 0 noco6ufl.x no 6e3pu6omulJ€ KaKoe BJlHlIHHe OKa3blBaeT HHCTHT)'lJHOHaJlbHall CTpYKTypa, H B '-IaCTHOCTH, HopMa 3aMey!eHHlI noc06HeM TpY,QOBoro ,Qoxo,Qa Ha Bbl60p Me:>K,QY YCTPOMCTBOM Ha pa60TY H coxpaHeHHeM COCTOllHHlI 6e3pa60T- HOro? 3TOT Bonpoc O'-leHb Ba:lKeH no MHornM npH'-IHHaM, He nOCJle,QHee MeCTO cpe,QH KOTOPblX 3aHHMaeT He06xo,QHMOCTb 06bllCHeHHlI KOHTpaCTa Me:>K,QY BeHI-pHeM H YelUCKOM pecny6JlHKoM. r,Qe YCTaHOBJle- Hbl O'-leHb :lKeCTKHe npaBHJla nOCTaHOBKH Ha yqeT. KOpOTKHe CpOKH BbmJlaTbl noc06HM. H K03¢QlHUHeHT 3aMey!eHHlI OTHOCHTeJlbHO HH30K. KolIO H ,Qp. (1993) nOKa3blBaeT, '-ITO paCXO,Qbl Ha O,QHoro 6e3pa6OTHoro B BeHI-pHH H HX ,QOJlll B BHn 3Ha'-lHTeJlbHO BbllUe, '-IeM B ,Qpyrnx Ta6JlHua 1-20. OTHolUeHHe pa3MepoB noc06HM K paC'-IeTHOM 3apa60T- HOM nJlaTe B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT npo,QOJl:lKHTeJlbHOCTH npe6bIBaHl-i1l 6e3 pa60Tbl, Ha'-lHHall C 1 lIHBapll 1992 r. P°jJ,OnlKHTenbHOCTb apa OTHaR nnaTa no nocnejJ,HeMY MeCTY pa OTbl FI npe6blBaHHR 6e:lpa60T- 11000 15000 7000 HblM (B MecRqax) 0 100 73 70 70 3 96 70 67 67 6 92 67 64 64 9 88 64 61 61 12 100 73 54 42 15 96 70 51 40 18 (coqHanbHoe noc06He) 53 33 25 18 fipHMetlaHHe: PaC'lernaJI 3apa6onru "naTa :::::: (I + ..)iN, rAe -r ~ TCMll HH4mntHOHHOro o6ecu,eHHBaJHuI 34paOOnlOH nnaTbi (3)1,CCh .. =O,S~ • MCCifl.t). MUHHManbflU 3apa60THu "naTa ,a,aRa • nepecqen c yqeToM KHnHl\KH . . Ka;O<,ll).lH ro,ll,. eN. KollO K )lJ>., 1993. CTpaHax BOCTO'-lHOM EBpOnbl. nOCJle,QHlIlI pa60Ta Nagy H Micklewrite (1993), a TaK:lKe pe3YJlbTaTbi MO,QeJlHpOBaHHlI, npHBe,QeHHble B KolIO H ,Qp. (1993) nOKa3bIBaIOT, '-ITO OTHOlUeHHe pa3Mepa noc06HlI K 3apa6OT- HOM nJlaTe OTHOCHTeJlbHO BeJlHKO ,QJlll JlHU C HH3KHMH ,Qoxo,QaMH. I-1cxo,QlI H3 cyy!eCTBoBaBlUero B 1992 r. nOpll,QKa BbmJlaTbl noc06HM BblBe,QeHbl KOO¢¢H!.lHeHTbl 3aMey!eHHlI (Ta6JlHua 1-20). Pa60THHKH C HH3KHM ypoBHeM ,Qoxo,Qa MOryr Ha npOTlI:lKeHHH AllHTeJlbHoro BpeMeHH nOJlY'-IaTb noc06He B pa3Mepe 90-100% CBoero npe,Qbl,QYl!!ero 3apa60TKa. ComacHo Nagy H Micklewright (1993), Ha 3TY I-pynny npHxo,QHTClI 28% BHOBb nona,QaIOI!!Hx B '-IHCJlO 6e3pa6OT- HbIX. Pa3Mepbl nOJlY'-IaeMbIX HMH noc06HM nOKa3aHbi B nepBoM cToJl6ue Ta6JlH!.lbl 1-20. O'-leBH,QHO, 4TO BblCOKHM K03¢¢HUHeHT 3aMel!!eHHlI 60 Be3pa6omuqa, nepecmpoulRCHReTCR OT~aCTH CTOnb SbICOKaR npOJlOmKHTenbHOCTb npe6bISaHHR 6e3 pa60Tbl. Galasi (1993) Ha OCHosaHHH SbI60PKH ManeHbKoro 061>eMa HHP YCTaHOSHJ1, ~TO pa3Mepbl noco6HR Ha nOseJleHHe MYiKqHH OKa3blsalOT BnHRHHe, a Ha nOBeJleHHe iKeHWHH - HeT. YTo6bl TOqHee oueHHTb CTeneHb BnHRHHR ::noro cpaKTopa, Tpe6YeTCR npoBecTH JlOnOnHHTenb- Hble HCCneJlOBaHHR. BhIBOllhI Ha npoTRiKeHHH HeCKonbKHX neT BeHfpHR HcnbITblBana cepbe3Hbie TpYJlHOCTH: Bce 60nee CHnbHoe COKpaweHHe npOH3BOJlCTBa H 6blCTPblH pOCT 6e3pa6oTHUbl. I1CTopHqeCKH cnOiKHBWHeCR pernOHanbHble JlHcnpOnopUHH, B nepBYIO O~epeJlb, MeiKJlY BOCTOqHblMH H 3anaJlHblMH qaCTRMH CTpaHbl, CJlepiKHBalOWHe 3KOHOMHqeCKHH pOCT, YCTpaHeHbl He 6blnH. OJlHaKO ceH~ac, B 1993 r., nORSHnHCb npH3HaKH OiKHBneHHR, XOTR H MeJlneHHOro, a TaKiKe CHHiKeHHR ypOBHR 6e3pa6oTHUbl. Ha rocYJlapCTSeHHblx npeJlnpHRTHRX, KOTopble B nepHOJl nocne 1990 r. nepBblMH Ha~anH COKpalJ.laTb ~HCJ1eHHOCTb 3aHSlTblX, npoBoJlSIT- CR CTPYKTypHbie npeo6pa30saHHR, ~alJ.le Bcero C uenblO HX nocneJlYlO- lJ.leH npHBaTH3aUHH. KOHe~Ho, 3Ha~HTenbHaR ~aCTb rocYJlapCTBeHHblx npeJlnpHHTHH OCTaeTCH HeKoHKypeHTocnoco6HoH H npOJlOniKaeT B TOH HnH HHOH cpopMe non~aTb cpHHaHcoBYIO nOJlJlepiKKY H3 6lOJliKeTa. 3TO, C OJlHOH CTOPOHbl, npHBOJlHT K 3HaqHTenbHoMY POCTY B3aHMHoH 3aJlOniKeHHOCTH npeJlnpHRTHH, a C JlpyrOH CTOPOHbl - BblpaiKaeTcR B cpaKTHqeCKOM OTKa3e MHornx KpynHeHwHx rocYJlapCTBeHHblx npeJlnpH- HTHH OT onnaTbl JlaSHO npocpo~eHHblx o6R3aTenbcTB nepeJl61OJliKeTOM, 18 BIeMa BblJlaHHblX KpeJlHToB. 3HaqHTeJ1bHble pa3Mepbl H BblCOKaR KOHueHTpaYHR npOCpOqeHHOH 3aJlOniKeHHOCTH 3aCTaBnRnl1 6aHKH B03JlepiKHBaTbcR OT npHMeHeHHR K JlOniKHHKaM KaKHX- nH60 18. Heo6xoJlHMO onposeprnYTb MHeHHe. 'ITO iKeCTKHe cpHHaHCOBble orpaHH4eHHfI CBOJl>lTCR K COKpalJ.leHHIO npRMoro cy6CHJlHpOBaHHR H nOJlqepKHYTb, "ITO CKpbIToe cpHHaHCHpOBaHHe rOCYJlapCTBeHHbIX npeJlnpHRTHH ocyweCTBnReTCR 4epe3 MHOiKeCTBO KaHanOB. B YXYJl- weHHH COCTORHHR rOCYJlapCTBeHHoro 610JliKeTa 3aJlOniKeHHOCTb no HanoraM H Jlpyrne BHJlbl 3aJl0J1iKeHHOCTH HrpalOT 60nbwyIO ponb. 61 caHKYHH, B lJaCTHOCTH, H3 OnaCeHHH Bbl3BaTb BOJlHY 6aHKpOTCTB. n03TOMY rOCY,llapCTBO, lJT06bl nOnpaBHTb nOJlO:lKeHHe OC06eHHO nOCTpa,llaBlUHX 6aHKOB, BbIHY:lK,lleHO 6blJlO nOHTH Ha KpynHble cpHHaHCO- Bble BnI1BaHHH. 3TO (TpeTbe no ClJeTY) CnaCeHl1e rOCY,llapCTBeHHbIX 6aHKOB OT 6aHKpOTCTBa, npl1'·leM OCYJ,UeCTBJleHHOe 3a ClJeT rocY,llap- CTBeHHblX Cpe,llCTB, 6blJlO lUaroM K BOCCTaHOBJleHl11O rOCY,llapCTBeHHoro KOHTPOJlH Ha,ll ,lleHTeJlbHOCTblO 3THX 6aHKOB 11 n03BOJlHJlO nOCJle,llHHM paCClJHTblBaTb Ha TaKYIO nO,ll,llep:lKKY H B 6Y,llYJ,UeM. TeM caMblM C03,llaBaJlaCb onaCHOCTb Toro, lJTO rOCY,llapCTBeHHaH cpHHaHCOBaH CHCTeMa 6Y,lleT,lle30pHeHTHpOBaTb 3KOHOMHlJeCKHX areHTOB H npenHTCTBOBaTb pelUeHHIO Ha3peBlUHX np06JleM. HeCMOTpH Ha 3TH cepbe3Hbie np06JleMbI H Ha CBH3aHHblH C HI1MH KPH3HC rOCY,llapCTBeHHoro 61O,ll:lKeTa, Bce :lKe C03,llaeTCH BnelJaT- JleHHe, lJTO O:lKH,llaHHH rOCY,llapCTBeHHbIX npe,llnpHHTHH H pa60THHKOB CKJla,llbIBaJlHCb no,ll BJlI1HHHeM 06'bHBJleHHH 0 BBe,lleHHH :lKeCTKHX cpHHaHCOBblX orpaHHlJeHI1H H 0 ,llPyrHX CBH3aHHbiX C HHMH nepeMeHax. B OTBeT Ha He6JlarOnpHHTHbie lUOKH B ccpepe npOH3BO,llCTBa rocY,llap- CTBeHHble npe,llnpHHTI1H CTaJlI1 npOBO,llHTb lUHpOKOMaClUTa6Hbie CTPYKTypHbie npeo6pa30BaHHH, COnpOBO:lK,llaBlUHeCH 3HalJHTeJlbHbiM COKpaI,UeHHeM lJHCJleHHOCTH 3aHHTbIX, 11 HalJaJlH HCKaTb BbIXO,ll Ha HOBble BHelUmle pblHKH c6blTa, B3aMeH PblHKOB CTpaH C3B. TeM He MeHee, rJlaBHble npHlJHHbl H3MeHeHHH 3aHHTOCTH CBH3aHbi C nOTpHceHH- HMH cnpoca Ha BHYTpe.HHeM pblHKe. BMeCTe C TeM, CJle,llyeT OTMeTHTb, lJTO ,llHHaMHKa 3aHHTOCTH 6blJla rOpa3,110 60nee nnaBHOH, lJeM B ,llpyrnx CTpaHax C nepeXO,llHOH 3KOHOMHKOH. nOCKOJlbKY B BeHrpHH He 6blJlO lUOKOBblX nOTpHceHHH CHCTeMbl yeH. HeCMOTpH Ha pe3KHM pOCT cOBoKynHblx H Y,lleJlbHbIX 3aTpaT Ha OnJlaTY TpY,lla, ypOBeHb 3apa6OT- HOH nJlaTbl nOTpe6HTenH H3MeHHJlCH OlJeHb MaJlO. 3TO YKa3blBaeT Ha He3naCTHlJHOCTb H3,llep:lKeK npOH3BO,llCTBa, H, KpOMe Toro, rOCY,llapCTBO C03,llaBaJlO YCJlOBHH ,llJlH HX pe3Koro pOCTa, OTKa3aBlUHCb B 1993 r. OT nonHTHKH ,llOXO,llOB. MexaHH3M peryJlHpOBaHHH 3apa6oTHoM nJlaTbl, cnoco6HblH nO,ll,llep:lKHBaTb ee Ha paBHoBecHoM ypOsHe, He Bblpa60TaH ,llO CHX nop. 60Jlee Toro, npH HaJlHlJHH 3HalJHTeJlbHbiX pernOHaJlbHblX pa3JlHlJHH B ypOBHe 6e3pa6oTH!,!bl H orpaHHlJeHHOH Mo6HJlbHOCTH pa60lJeM CHJlbl 6e3pa6oTH!J.a He MO:lKeT CJlY:lKI1Tb ,llOCTaTOlJHO 3cpcpeK- THBHblM cpaKTOpOM CHI1:lKeHI1H ypOBHH 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbl, Ha KOTOPYlO npeTeH,llYIOT pa60THI1KI1. Ero ,lleMCTBl1e nepelaKTH4eCKH npOH3Be)leHHbIH npe)lnpHHTHHMH 4aCTHOrO CeKTOpa BBn, nO-BH)lHMOMY, CYlI!.eCTDeHHO npeBbIllIaeT Q(pH!.!HaJlbHbIe o!.!eHKH, nOCKOJlbKY 4aCTb ero onepaYHH B CTaTHCTHKe He OTpa)f(aeTC.R. CpaBHHTeJlbHO BblCOKHe pa3Mepbl noco6HH no 6e3pa6oTHye 6blJlH 4aCTH4HO nepeCMoTpeHbI, nOCKOJlbKY OHH JlO)f(HJlHCb T.R)f(eJlbIM 6peMeHeM Ha 61O)l)f(eT, a KpOMe Toro, nO)lpblBaJlH CTHMYJlbl K nOHCKaM pa60Tbl, no KpaHHeH Mepe, Y HeKBaJlmpH!JI1POBaH- HblX pa60THHKOB. BMeCTe C TeM, npoyecc a)lanTa!.!HH el!!e )laJleK OT 3aBepllleHH.R. 3aMeqaHHH 06 HCTOqHHKaX CTaTHCTHqeCKOH HH.p0pMaYHH nepenuCb dOMawHux X03RUCm6 ITepenHCb ~OMaWHHX X03RiiCTB BeHrpHH (HHP) - 3TO o6cne~oBaHHe 2.000 ~OMaWHHX X03I1iicTB, HaC'IHTblBalOlllHX 4.520 B3pocnblx 'IneHOB. ITepBblii 3Tan 6b1n npoBe~eH B MapTe 1992 r., a OT'IeT H CTaTHCTH'IeCKHe AaHHble 6b1nH nOAroToBneHbI K cpeBpanlO 1993 r . .o;aHHble 3a npe~weCTBylOlllHii nepHo~ co6HpanHcb Ha MapT 1991 r.,. Be3pa6oTHl\a HC'IHcnRnacb KaK no MeTOAOnOrHH MOT, TaK H HCXOAR H3 cpaKTH'IecKH npopa6OTaHHoro pecnoHAeHTOM BpeMeHH B Te'leHHe MeCRl\a AO npOBeAeHHII onpoca. PaC'IeTbI, pe3ynbTaTbi KOTOPblX npHBe~eHbI B ~aHHoii rnaBe, OCHOBaHbI Ha HHCPOPMaltHH nepBOHCTO'lHHKa. a TaK>Ke Ha ~aHHblX H3 Kolosia and Sik 1993 H Nagy and Sik 1993 nepBoii CTaTbH AaHHoii KHHrH. KpamKocp01.lHOe npOlH03Hoe o6cJledo8aHUe pblHKa mpyda KpaTKocpo'lHble npOrH03b1 pa3BHTHR pblHKa Tpy~a (LMF). COCTaBnlleMbie lleHTpoM H3Y'leHHII pblHKa Tpy~a, OCHOBaHbI Ha MaTepHanax nepenHceii 4.000 CPHPM C 1.2 MnH. 3aHRTbiX. oroop KOTOPblX npoH3Bo~HTCR ~Ba pa3a B ro~. ITo nepBoMY 3Tany (1 ceHTII6pR 1992 r.) HHCPOPMal\HR H OT'IeT 6b1nH nOArOTOBneHbI K cpeBpaJ1l0 1993 r. XOTR TeOpeTH'IeCKH oT6op B COOTBeTCTBHH C YCTaHOBneHHblMH KBOTaMH ~On>KeH npOH3BO- ~HTbCH cllY'laiiHo. Ha npaKTHKe 3TO ycnoBHe He Bcer~a co6nlOAanOCb CTporo. BOllee TOro, o6cne~OBaHHe He OXBaTbiBano pHA Ba>KHblX 110Ka3aTeneii, a MHorHe H3 110nY'leH- HbiX 110Ka3aTeneii 6b1llH onpe~eneHbI HeAOCTaTO'lHO TO'lHO. O~HaKO ltenH npOrH03HPO- BaHHR ~HHaMHKH H CTPYKTypbl3aHHTOCTH MaTepHanbi 06cneAOBaHHH Bl10nHe OTBe'laIOT H B AaHHOii CTaTbe cnY>KaT eAHHCTBeHHblM HCTO'lHHKOM HHCPOPMaltHH 0 pa60TOAaTenHX. Bonee 110~p06HO CM. SzeKely (1993a, b, c). TIpHnO)KeHHe MOnenb «i>HPMbl B npoyecce npe06pa30BaHHH: KOOnepaTHBHaH Hrpa MeHen)l(epOB H pa60QHX B )laHHOM npHJlO)f(eHHH npe)lJlaraeTC.R o6IUa.R MO)leJlb neperOBopOB Me)f(Jly MeHe)l)f(epaMH H pa604HMH, rJlaBHblMH Y4aCTHHKaMH rocy)lap- 63 CTBeHHoro npeAnpHHTHH (rn). MOAenb "pa60TaeT" npH ycnoBHH l,!enoro pHAa AOnYIJJ.eHHH, B TOM 4HCne COOTBeTCTB)'JOIJ!HX OCHOBHbIM XapaKTepHblM OC06eHHOCTHM pa3BHTHH BeHrpHH. nepBOe AOnYIJJ.eHHe COCTOHT B TOM, 4TO Ha rOCYAapCTBeHHblX npeAnpHHTHHX MeHeA)f(epbl H pa604He ynpaBJ1HIOT COBMeCTHO, OnpeAe- nHH, nOMHMO BCerO np04erO, OCHOBHble nYHKTbI TpYAOBOrO cOrnaWeHHH B COOTBeTCTBHH C TeXHOnOrn4eCKHMH H 6IOA)f(eTHbIMH OrpaHH4eHHHMH. npeAnOnaraeTCH, 4TO OHH npHXoAHTK B3aHMOBblroAHOMY cOrnaWeHHIO. npeAnOnO)f(HM, 4TO AnH cpeAHero pa604erO rOCYAapCTBeHHoro npOMblWneHHOrO npeAnpHHTHH nOne3HOCTb onpeAenHeTCH 3aTpaTaMH ero TpYAa H O)f(HAaeMbIM ypOBHeM peanbHOH 3apa60THOH nnaTbl. cr.YHKl,!HH nOne3HOCTH MO)f(eT 6blTb 3anHCaHa B cneA)'JOIYeM BHAe: (1-1) Uw .. U(Z) + V(W) .... ,[lonYCTHM. 4TO u'(Z)0pMyne: (1-2) --- Uw = u(B) + v(O) ..... rAe B - 3K30reHHaH BenH4HHa noc06H.fI no 6e3pa60THl,!e. EcnH 6e3pa60THl,!a He HBn$leTCH A06pOBonbHOH, TO AOn)f(HO BblnOnH.HTbC.H ycnoBHe: u(Z) + v(W) > u(B) + v(O). 64 Beapa6omutta, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U pblHOK mpyoa COBoKynHa51 tPYHKlJH5I nOJle3HOCTH ,nJl51 pa60\lHx. npeTeH.nylO- IJJ.HX Ha nOJlY\leHHe pa60Tbi B rocy,napCTBeHHOM CeKTOpe, HMeeT BH,n: U$ ., nv(W) + (m-n)v(B) + nu(Z) + (m-n)u(O). nOCKOJlbKY KpHTH\leCKOH TO\lKOH ,nJl51 pa60\lero 51BJl5IeTC5I 6e3pa60THlJa, TO B m yaOJlbHeHHe 3anHCaHO KaK: (1-3) U- U = n[U(Z) - U(O) + v(w) - v(b)] .... loiT06bl BblBeCTH ypaBHeHHe paC\leTa npH6blJlH ,nJl51 MeHe,n)l(epa, Ha,nO npe,nBapHTeJ1bHO 3anHCaTb npOH3BO,nCTBeHHytO tPYHK!JHIO: (1-4) Y - aZJVf1... 06beM npOH3BO,nCTBa onpe,neJl5leTC5I KaK npOH3Be,neHHe KOJlH\leCTBa pa60\lHX H nOKa3aTeJl51 HHTeHCHBHOCTH Tpy,na Z; a - K03tPtPHlJHeHT, Bblpa)l(alOlJJ.HH BJlH5IHHe WOKOS co CTOPOHbl npe,nnO>Ke- HH5I. JlonYCTHM, \ITO j(n»O;j'(n»O;j'/(n)Kepa. 51BIl.ReTC.R peanbHa.R npH6blJlb. npH6blJlb R onpe,neJl.ReTC.R no tPopMYJle: R = PY- WN- F, r,ne P - CTOHMOCTb npOH3Be,neHHOH npo,nYKlJHH. ,neJleHHa.R Ha HH,neKC nOTpe6HTeJlbCKHX lJeH. Y - 06beM npOH3Bo,nCTBa. a F- tPHKCHpOBaHHble H3,nep>KKH npOH3S0,nCTBa. KpHTH\leCKOH TO\lKOH peHTa6eJlbHOCTH ,nJl.R tPHPMbl .RBJI.RIOTC.R ee \lHCTble nOCTynJleHH.R B cJlY\lae OCTaHOBKH npOH3Bo,nCTBa. R = -F. Tor,na npH6blJlb paBHa: R-R- PY-WN.... npe,nnOJlO>KHM. \ITO cnpoc 3J1aCTH\leH no OTHOCHTeJlbHblM lJeHaM. Tor,na ueHa npoH3Be,neHHoH tPHPMOH npo,nYKlJHH paBHa ueHe. 65 no KOTOPOH ee nOKynalOT nOTpe6HTenH: Y = hp" ,..g> 1 , rlle g - 3naCTH4HOCTb cnpoca, a h -BenH4HHa, Bblpa:lKalOJ,lJ.aH BnHHHHe nOTpHceHHH cnpoca. He06xollHMO pewHTb ypaBHeHHe: (1-6) AnH peweHHH ypaBHeHHH 1-6 MO:lKHO 3aMeHHTb 4aCTHbie IPyHlq,lHH none3HOCTH (ypaBHeHHH 1-3 H 1_5)19: (1-7) MAXw",{n[u(Z) - u(O) + v(W) - v(b)]Il[PY - Wn]I-S} .... .l1onYCTHM, 4TO npoH3BollCTBeHHaH IPyHKijHH nHHeHHa, H nOllCTaBHM ee B ypaBHeHHe npH6blnH. MaKcHMH3HpyeMblH nOKa3aTenb npHMeT BHll: MAXWN{i\{u(Z) - u(O) + v(W) - v(b)]O[h"{aZ!Vl)loa - WN]}, rlle a = 1/g. HaXOllHM MHO:lKeCTBO peweHHH KaK ycnoBHe nepBoro nopHllKa 3KCTpeMYMa IPyHKUHH (1-7). OHO MO:lKeT 6bITb Bblpa:lKeHO cnellYlOlJJ.HM 06pa30M: (1-8) [p(l-a)h"{aZ)I"'!Vl(l ... )-I - W] =v(W)-v(b)+u(Z)-u(O) v'(W) MHO:lKeCTBO peweHHH nOKa3bJBaeT, 4TO npellenbHaH HopMa 3aMeJ,lJ.eHHH ~H MeHell:lKepa B BbJ60pe Me:lKllY KonH4eCTBOM 3aHHTbIX H 3apa60THoH nnaToH llOn:lKHa paBHHTbcH npellenbHoH HopMe 3aMeJ,lJ.e- HHH ~H pa604ero, B3HTOH c 06paTHbJM 3HaKOM, nocKonbKY: 19. nOllp06Hee CM. Commander and Staehr 1991. 66 Be3pa6omut{a, nepecmpoilxa 3XOHOMUXU U pbI.H.OX mpyiJa v(W) - v(B) + u(Z) - u(O) ) 0; h"'(aZ)!''''(I-a)N'' - W < O. 113 3TOro ypaBHeHH.R CJle.llyeT, 'ITO MeHe.ll)l(ep 6Y.lleT HaHHMaTb 60JlbWe pa604HX, 4eM OH HaH.RJI 6bl B YCJlOBH.RX CB060.llHOH KOHKypeHWiH Ha pblHKe TpY.lla. C.lleJlaB 3TO YT04HeHHe, MO)I(HO BblBeCTH ypaBHeHHe, 06b.RCH.R- IOYlee, KaK YCTaHaBJlHBaeTC.R ypOBeHb 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl H KOJlH4eC- TBO 3aHHTbIX: J (1-9) W = W(h,a.Z,bg) ..•. (1-9') N" = N(h.ag,Z,b) .... K03q)(pH!,!HeHTbl ypaBHeHHH nOKa3blBalOT H3MeHeHHe ypOBH.R 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl • .llOCTHraeMOH B pe3YJlbTaTe neperOBOpOB B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT H3MeHeHH.R 3K30reHHbiX nepeMeHHblX. nOC06H.R no 6e3pa6OTHye BXO.ll.RT B ypaBHeHHe 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl co 3HaKOM nJllOc. a OCTaJtbHbie nepeMeHHble (Bblpa)l(alOYlHe BJlH.RHHe WOKOB cnpoca H npe.llJlO)l(eHH.R H HHTeHCHBHOCTH TPY.ll3) MOryT HMeTb 1I1060H 3H3K. C T04KH 3peHH.R KOJlH4eCTBa 3aH.RTbIX K03Q>Q>H!,!HeHTbl npH WOKax cnpoca (h) H npe.llJlO)l(eHH.R (a) HMelOT nOJlO)l(HTeJlbHble 3Ha4eHH.R, a K03Q>Q>H!,!HeHT npH noc06HH no 6e3pa60THye MO)l(eT HMeTb Jl1060H 3HaK. COOTHOWeHHe CHJI pa604Hx H MeHe.ll)l(epOB B neperOBopax 0 3apa60THoH nJlaTe MO)l(HO Bblpa3HTb 4epea ypaBHeHHe MaKCHMH3aYHH npH6b1JlH. npH nOM npe.llnOJlaraeTC.R. 'ITO B npo!,!ecce neperOBopOB OHO He MeH.ReTC.R. He MeH.ReTC.R H 3J1aCTH4HOCTb cnpoca. npHBe.lleHHOe Bblwe onHcaHHe KoonepaTHBHoH Hrpbl npe.llCTaB- JI.ReT OCHOBHble npHHYHnbl HCCJle.llOBaHH.R BJlH.RHH.R BHeWHHX nOTp.Rce- HHH Ha pa3BHTHe rocY.llapCTBeHHblx npe.llnpH.RTHH. BMeCTe c TeM, COCTaBJleHHble Ha 3TOM OCHOBaHHH ypaBHeHH.R HenOCpe.llCTBeHHO oueHHTb HeJtb3.R. C O.llHOH CTOPOHbl, 3TO CB.R3aHO C np06J1eMaMH H3MepeHH.R H C He.llOCTaTKOM CTaTHcTH4ecKoH HHQ>opMaYHH. C .llpyroH CTOPOHbl, 3TO HeB03MO)l(HO H3-3a He.llOcTaT04HoH onpe.lleJleHHOCTH npoyecca COBMeCTHoro YCTaHOBJleHH.R KOJlH4eCTBa 3aH.RTbIX H ypOBH.R 3apa6oTHoH nJlaTbl. DH6JIHOrpaJUI Bjorklund. E .• and Holmlund,B. 1991 "Unemployment Insurance". In A.Bjorklund. R.Hollister. and B.Holmlund, eds .• lAbor Market Policy and Unemployment BempUR 67 Insurance. Oxford: Clarendon. Commander, Simon, and Karsten Staehr. 1991. The Determination of Wages in Socialist Economies: Some Microfoundations. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Commander, Simon. and Cecilia Ugaz. 1993. The Determinants of Output in Hungary. 1989·1992 - Panel Estimations. Wasington, D.C.: World Bank. Fazekas. K., and J.KoIIO. 1991. "The Patterns of Unemployment in Hungary - A Case Study". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 1:35-51. Feldstein, V. 1976. "Temporary Layoffs in the Theory of Unemployment". Journal of Political Economy 84:937-57. -----. 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment". 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"Background Paper on Unemployment and Related Budget Expenditures". The Blue Ribbon Commission, May. Mimeo. Kolosi. T .• and E.Sik. 1993. "MunkaerOpiac es jovedelmek" (The Labor Market and Incomes). In JelenMs a Magyar HavartOs Panel I. hullamanak eredmenyeirOI. Budapest. Kornai. J. 1993. Transfomlalional Recession. Working Paper 1. Collegium Budapest. Laky. T. 1993. A mUnkaerOpiac keresleMl es kinalalat alakit6 folyamatok (Processes Governing Labor Supply and Demand). Budapest: Labor Research Institute. Layard. R., R.Jackman. and S.Nickel. 1991. Unemployment. New York: Oxford 68 5e3pa6omuqa, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa University Press. Nagy, Gy. 1993. "Munkane1kiiliseg" (Unemployment). In Egy ev uran - Jelenres a MHP II.huIltimdnak eredmenyeirol. Budapest: BKE-T ARKI. Nagy, Gy .• and E.Sik. 1993. "Munkanelkiiliseg es munkane1kiiliek" (Unemployment and the Unemployed). In Jelemes a Magyar HaZlands Panel I. hulldmanak eredmenyeir{)l. Budapest. Nagy. Gy .• and J.Micklewright 1993. How does the Hungarian benefit system really work? European University, Florence. Mimeo. OEeD. 1993. Hungary Survey. Paris. SzeKely.J. 1993a. "Rovidd. VII munkaeropiacy prognozis" (Short-Term Labor Market Forecast). Orszagos Munkaeropici Kozpont. Budapest. -----.1993b. "Gazdasagi realfolyamatok 1993.I.fe1eve'ben" (Economic Trends in January-June 1993). Orszagos Munkaeropiaci Kozpont. Budapest. -----.1993c. "Rovid tavu muncaeropiaci prognozis" (Short Run Labor Market Forecast). June 1993. Orszagos Munkaeropiaci Kozpont. Budapest. Vilagy, Balacs. The Behaviour of Hungarian Finns In 1992: Evidence from a Survey. Budapest: Institute of Economics. 2 OOJIbllIa (/JoopU1J,UO Kopu'I.{£/Ulu, KwuwrnorjJ XWMai1ep u KwuwrnorjJ PbIi5U1tC1CU I npH aHaJlH3e ,l:IHHaMHKH nOKa3aTeJleH pa3BHTHIl pblHKa TpY,l:Ia nOJlbWH 3a nepBble 'IeTblpe rO,l:la nepeXO,l:lHOrO nepHO,l:la BblIlBJlHIOTCIl TPH Ba:lKHble OC06eHHOCTH. BO-nepBblX, Ha'laTOe B 1992 r. 06cne,l:loBaHHe pa60'leH CHJlbl nOKa3aJlO, 'ITO BbICOKHH ypOBeHb 6e3pa6oTH!,!bl - OTHlO,l:Ib He CTaTHCTH'IeCKHH apTecpaKT. PacnpOCTpaHeHO MHeHHe, 'ITO H3-3a HeCOBepweHCTBa CTaTHCTH'IeCKOH HHcpopMawm MaCWTa6bl cna,l:la npOH3BO,l:lCTBa B nOJlbWe 3Ha'lHTeJlbHO npeyseJlH'IeHbI (CM. Berg and Sachs 1992). O,l:lHaKO pOCT 6e3pa6oTH!.!bI C O,l:lo 16% He OCTaBJlHeT COMHeHHH, 'ITO B nepHO,l:l nocJle 1990 r. 3KOHOMHKa nOJlbWH HaXO,l:lH- JlaCb B COCTOIlHHH rJly60Koro KpH3Hca. BO-BTOPbIX, 6e3pa6OTH!,!a npo,l:loJliI0pM. HO 6blJ1a TalOKe B 3Ha1.lHTenbHOH Mepe CBH3aHa C 061J.!HM COKpalJ.!eHHeM npOH3BO,l:lCTBa. OHa C03,1:laBana npenHTCTBHH .rtJ1H npOBe,l:leHHH 3KOHOMH1.IeCKHX npe06pa30BaHHH, TaKHe, KaK HapaCTalOlJ.!ee nOnHTH1.IeCKOe conpOTHBneHHe npHBaTH3aYHH H yaeJ1H1.IeHHe paCXO,l:lOB roCY,I:lapCTBeHHoro 61OWKeTa. JlaHHaH rnaBa nOCTpoeHa cne.rtYJOlJ.!HM 06pa30M. nepBblH pa3,1:leJ1 CO,l:lep)K}tT 0630p ,I:lHHaMHKH npOH3BO,l:lCTBa. 3aHHTOCTH H 3apa60THOH nnaTbI. Bo BTOPOM pa3,1:lene aHanH3HpYeTCH ,I:lBmKeHHe 6e3pa60THYbl; OCHOBHoe BHHMaHHe Y,I:leJ1HeTCH nOTOKaM pa601.leH CHnbl H oc06eHHO npoyeccaM COKpalJ.!eHHH pa601.lHX MeCT B rOCY,I:lapCTBeHHOM H C03,1:laHHH HOBblX pa601.lHX. MeCT B 1.IaCTHOM ceKTope. B TpeTbeM ,I:laeTCH xapaKTepHCTHKa COCTaBa 6e3pa60THb1X. B npHnO:lKeHHH CO,l:lep:lKHTCH 60nee nO,l:lp06HbIH aHanH3 ,I:lHCnponopYHH, onHcaHHblX BO BTOPOM pa3,1:lene. 0630P 1992 r. B 3KOHOMHKe nonbwH, HaXo,l:lHBweHCH B COCTOHHHH B Cepe,l:lHHe rny60Koro KpH3HCa, Bbl3BaHHOrO pe!l>0pMaMH 1992 r., Ha1.lanOCb O)K}tMeHHe. B 1993 r. 3TOT npoyecc YCHnHncH, H Ha1.lanCH 6b1CTpbIH pOCT npoMblwneHHoro npoH3BO,l:lCTBa (pHC. 2-1). i13MeH.€'HllR 8 c¢epe npou3800cm8a U 3aHRmocmu: Ma1CP03KOHOMtNecKU€ U cmpyKmYPHble ¢aKmOpbi MaKp03KOHOMH1.IeCKHe nOKa3aTenH cne,l:lyeT Y1.IHTblBaTb npH aHanH3e ,I:lHHaMHKH nOKa3aTeJ1eH pbIHKa TpY,I:la. BMeCTe C TeM, Cyt,UHOCTb KpH3Hca 3aHHTOCTH HeJ1b3.f1 CBO,l:lHTb npoCTO K H3MeHeHH.fIM BBn. H ,I:leHCTBHTeJ1bHO. 6e3pa6OTHya MO:lKeT pa3BHBaTbC.fI no-pa3HOMY, B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT Toro, KaKHe !l>aKTOpbl onpe,l:len.fllOT 3KOHOMH1.IeCKHe npoyecCbl. B 1.IaCTHOCTH. He06xo,l:lHMO oyeHHTb COOTHoweHHe MaKp03- KOHOMH1.IeCKHX H CTPYKTypHblX, HnH nepepacnpe,l:lenHTenbHblX, !l>aKTOpoB. B npHHYHne, 1.IeM CHnbHee BnH.fIHHe nepepacnpe,l:lenHTenb- HblX !l>aKTOpOB, TeM CHnbHee pa3nH1.IH.fI B H3MeHeHHHX npOH3BO,l:lCTBa H 3aHHTOCTH Me:lK,l:ly OTpacnHMH H OT,I:lenbHblMH npe,l:lnpHHTH.fIMH, H TeM 60nbwe He06xo,l:lHMble MaCWTa6bl nepepacnpe,l:leneHHH TpY,I:la Me:lK.rtY HHMH. Be3pa6OTHya, B03HHKwaH KaK Cne,l:lCTBHe He,l:lOCTaT01.lHO 6b1CTpOrOnepepacnpe,l:leneHHHpecypcoBMe:lK,l:lyc!l>epaMH3KoHoMH1.Iec- KOH ,I:leHTenbHOCTH, HMeeT cosepweHHo HHYJO npHpo,l:ly, 1.IeM B03HHKwa.fl 72 Be3pa60muqa, nepeCmpOilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbtHOK mpyiJa PHCyHOK 2-1. 06'beM npOMblllIneHHoro npoH3Bo,llCTBa H 6e3pa6oTHIJa. A.06'beM npOMbllllneHHoro npoH3Bo,llCTBa (HH,IleKCbl 1989.01 .. 100) B. Be3pa6oTHIJa H BaKaHCHH 11 1411 14 I 1li1O I I 112 to f\ I I I 100 110 0:1 / \ \ I £rl G.l '0 • S III 4 Iv ,J / / / '--../ '-..J 10 40 J ~ Q, 0 f;l liIO tJ j:.Q 0 0 111D.01 lt8Q.01 11181.Q1 1_.01 11183.01 1_12 XOTfl aHanH3 ,IlBH)I(Yl.UHX CHn H OC06eHHOCTeH pa3BHTHfl npOH3BO,llCTBa B nocnepe~OpMeHHOH nonbllle He BXO,llHT B 3a,lla4H ,IlaHHOH rnaBbl. Cne,llyeT HMeTb B BH,Ily HX nOCTOflHHble H3MeHeHHfl C Te4eHHeM BpeMeHH. KPH3HC 1990 r. B03HHK Ha "npo4HoH oCHoBe", na,lleHHe npoH3BO,llCTBa 6blno CBfl3aHO cKopee Bcero He C nepepacnpe- ,IleneHHeM pecypcoB Me)l(,lly CeKTOpaMH. a co CMey!eHHeM C nHHHH llOJ'lbUla 73 npOH3BOllCTBeHHblX B03MO>KHOCTeH, nOCKOJlbKY pa3JlH4H.R Me>K.llY CeKTOpaMH 6b1JlH He3Ha4HTeJlbHbl, H B3aHMOCB.R3b Me>K.llY H3MeHeHH.RMH • 06'beMa npoH3BollCTBa H H3MeHeHH.RMH OTHOCHTeJlbHblX yeH - CJla60H2. Ta6JlHua 2-1 YKa3b1BaeT Ha pe3KHH pOCT B nepHoll nOCJle 1990 r. Pa3JlH4HH B 06'beMaX npoH3BOllCTBa Me>KllY CeKTOpaMH. BOJlee Toro, Ha4HHa.R C 1992 r. 4eTKO npocne>KHBaeTC.R HaJlH4He np.RMOH CTaTHCTH- 4eCKH 3Ha4HMoH CB.R3H Me>KllY H3MeHeHH.RMH o6'beMoB npOH3BO,QCTBa 3 H OTHOCHTeJlbHblX yeH • r BonpeKH O>KH,QaHH.RM, OTHOCHTeJlbHble H3MeHeHH.R CTPYKTYPbl 3aH.RTOCTH B 1990..:92 rr. no OCHOBHbiM CeKTOpaM 3KOHOMHKH He 6b1JlH oc06eHHO 3Ha4HTeJlbHbIMH • .[lOJl.R 3aH.RTbiX B npOMblWJleHHOCTH YMeHb- WHJlaCb B nOJlb3Y 3aH.RTOCTH B ccPepe yCJlyr JlHWb Ha 1% (Ta6JlHya 2-2) . .[lHHaMHKa 3aH.RTOCTH no OTpaCJl.RM npOMblWJleHHOCTH, HanpOTHB, OTpa>KaeT ,QHHaMHKY npOH3BO,QCTBa, npH4eM B nepHo,Q nOCJle 1990 r. pa3JlH4H.R Me>K.llY CeKTOpaMH pe3Ko YCHJlHJlHCb. 3TO nO,QTBep>K.llaeTC.R ,QaHHbIMH no OTpaCJl.RM Tpex3Ha4HoH KJlaccHcPHKaYHH. nOMHMO 3Toro, yseJlH4HJlOCb 4HCJlO CeKTOpOB, 3aH.RTOCTb B KOTOPblX YCKopeHHo pocJla'\ BOJlee TOro, ,QonOJlHHTeJlbHbIM ,QOKa3aTeJlbCTBOM ycnexa CTPYKTypHblX npe06pa30BaHHH H YJlY4weHH.R pa3Mer,yeHH.R pecypcoB CJlY>KHT Ha6mollaBWHHC.R B 1992-93 rr. cYYleCTBeHHblH pOCT npoH3Bo- ,QHTeJlbHOCTH TpY,Qa. KpoMe HepaBHoMepHoH ,QHHaMHKH 3aH.RTOCTH no OTpaCJl.RM, OCHOBHOH 4epToH CTPYKTYPHOH: nepeCTpoHKH .RBJl.RIOTCSI npOTHBono- JlO>KHble TeH,QeHYHH B pa3BHTHH rocY,QapCTBeHHoro H 4aCTHoro CeKTOpOB. 113 Ta6nHUbI 2-3 .RCHO BH,QHO, 4TO 3a POCTOM COBoKynHoro o6'beMa npOH3BO,QCTBa B 1993 r. CTOHT pa3JlH4Ha.R ,QHHaMHKa o6'beMoB npoH3Bo,QCTBa 3THX CeKTOpOB. 04eBH,QHo TaK>Ke, 4TO Ha4aBWHHC.R B 1990 r. Bce06lJ.!HH criall npoH3Bo,QCTBa B rocY,QapCTBeHHoM ceKTope npHH.RJl xpoHH4ecKYJO cP0PMY, a B 4aCTHOM ceKTope 6blJl 6blCTPO npeo,QOJleH. POCT cOBoKynHoro o6'beMa npoH3Bo,QCTBa B 1992 r. yeJlHKOM npOHCXO,QHJl 3a C4eT 4aCTHoro ceKTopa. 2. .[leJlo B TOM, 4TO BpeMeHHoe COKpaYleHHe npOH3BO,QCTBa - He06xo,QHMble H3,Qep>KKH nepepacnpe,QeJleHH.R pecypCOB Me>K.llY CeKTOpaMH B npoyecce a,QanTa!!HH. 3. B 1990-91 rr. 3Ta CB.R3b 6blJla ,QOBOJlbHO CJla60H (eM. Borens- ztein, Demekas, and Ostry 1993). 4. K03cPcPH!JHeHT BapHa!!HH H3MeHeHHH 3aH.RTOCTH no OTpaCJl.RM Tpex:ma4HoH KJlaCcHcPHKa!!HH YBeJlH4HJlC.R C 0.07 B 1990 r. ,QO 0.25 B 1992 r., ,QBY3Ha4HoH - JlHWb C 0.05 ,QO 0.08. B 1990 r. H3 113 OTpaCJleH, TOJlbKO B 11, n04TH Bce H3 KOTOPblX OTHOC.RTC.R K 3HepreTH- Ke. npoHcxo,QHJl pOCT 4HCJleHHOCTH 3aH.RTbIX, a B 1991 r. - B 36. Ta6J1Hga 2-1. nonbwa: o6beM npoMblwneHHoro npOH3BOJ],CTBa H 3aH1tTOCTb no ceKTopaM HauM€H08aHu€ 1990 1991 1992 1993 1990 1991 1992 1993 TonnHBHa1t npoMblwneHHocTb -20,1 -14,6 11,7 4,2 -0,4 -1,7 2,4 4,0 YronbHa.fl npoMblwneHHocTb -31,8 1,0 -8,4 -5,3 -11,4 -9,3 -4,9 -4,4 3HepreTHKa -9,7 -5,7 -6,0 -0,6 1,7 1,7 0,5 2,0 '4epHa1t MeTannyprn.fl -17,1 -24 -3,4 1,2 -5,6 -4,2 -10,0 -7,2 UBeTHa1t MeTannyprn1t -23,7 -21,1 -5,7 -2,2 -2,8 -10,3 -4,8 -15,7 113J],enH.fI H3 MeT anna -25,6 -16 7,8 2,9 -11,4 -7,1 -6,0 0,3 MawHHoCTpoeHHe -19,6 -21,3 -7,3 -3,9 -10,3 -13,6 -IS,S -8,3 To.moe MawHHOCTpOeHl1e -16,1 -31,2 10,0 -31,3 -8,6 -17,8 -18,4 -11,2 TpaHcnopTHoe MaWI1HOCTpOeHHe -25,2 -38,3 23,1 5,8 -8,1 -8,5 -11,7 -3,0 3neKTpOTeXHI1yeCKOe MaWI1HOCTpOeHl1e -20,2 -21,1 7,4 -2,6 -7,7 -17,9 -18,7 -7,6 XHMl1yeCKa1t npoMblwneHHoCTb -24,6 -15,2 6,8 3,7 -9 -5,8 -7,0 -1,0 npOMblwneHHoCTb CTpOI1TenbHbix MaTepHanoB -20 -8,5 -1,8 10,4 -5,4 -4,8 -2,0 -3,7 np0I13BOJ],CTBO CTeKna -27,3 -5,1 6,7 -4,0 -6,5 -6,8 -6,8 -6,1 cJ)aprP0pOBa.fl npoMblwneHHoCTb -21,6 -13,9 -2,1 12,2 -2,9 -10,2 -17,5 -1,4 ,[\epeBoo6pa6aTbIBalOI,Ua1t npoMblwneHHoCTb -25,2 -4,1 15,6 9,3 -14,5 2,7 -1,5 2,3 UennlOn03Ho-6YMa>KHa1t npoMblwneHHocTb -23,8 -2,8 8,4 1,6 -8,5 -9,1 -10,7 -4,3 TeKCTl1nbHa.fl npoMblwneHHoCTb -39,6 -19,2 4,1 2,1 -11,2 -20,2 -20,0 -6,3 lliBeHHa.fl npOMbIWJleHHOCTb -24 -13,1 13,8 -6,5 -14,5 -5,9 -1,3 7,9 np0I13BOJ],CTBO KO)KJ1 -30,6 -19,7 -3,9 -16,2 -11 -14,5 -16,8 -10,8 nl1l,UeBa.fl npoMblwneHHocTb -23,7 -0,5 4,2 16,6 -2,5 2,2 3,3 1,4 B cpeJ],HeM -23,7 -14,7 3,6 -0,4 -7,9 -8,4 -8,9 -4,1 CTaHJ],apTHoe OTKnOHeHl1e li~i~~YnY'1il1li 1a~~W~may 6,2 g~ g. 10,3 8,4 10,3 ~~ ~~~ 4,1 g~ 6,4 g~ 7,1 g~ 5,5 ~ ~ HCT()'lHKI<' CelllrO.l Stalis,i",1 omce, Monthly Sta,is,i",1 BIIi",Iin, Pal""I' ''''IlYClCK. Ta6J1Hl!a 2-2. nOJIbwa: pacnpe):'leJIeHHe 3aHHTbiX CeKmopa U lOabl 1989 (mblcRl.Iu)1990 (mblcRl.Iu)1991 (mblCRl.Iu)J992 (mblCRl.Iu) 1989 (npol.i(£~i992(npo- mbl) 4€Hmbl) Bcero 12154 11375 10406 9831 100,0 ,100,0 IPHHaHcHpyeMble 2390 2418 2378 2323 19,7 23,6 H3 61O):'I)I{eTa npOMblWJIeHHOCTb 4443 4182 3798 3502 36,6 35,6 CTPOHTeJIbCTBO 1155 1069 931 902 9,5 9,2 CeJIbCKOe X03RHCTBO 758 668 514 367 6,2 3,7 JlecHoe X03RHCTBO 136 123 109 94 1,1 1,0 TpaHcnopT 765 696 618 532 6,3 5,4 CBR3b 168 171 167 171 1,4 1,7 TOprOBJIR 1213 1037 1042 954 • 10,0 9,7 KOMMYHaJIbHble yCJIyrn 325 313 285 284 2,7 2,9 ~HJIHI!!Hoe cTpOHTeJIb- 208 197 168 171 1,7 1,7 CTBO HaYKa 112 96 82 71 0,9 0,7 06pa30BaHHe 1072 1097 1084 1045 8,8 10,6 KyJIbTypa 115 107 91 85 0,9 0,9 3):'1paBOOXpaHeHHe 869 893 863 828 7,2 8,4 OT):'IbIX 115 88 73 62 0,9 0,6 YnpaBJIeHHe H npaBo 222 220 235 259 1,8 2,6 IPHHaHcbl H cTpaxoBaHHe 140- 149 165 187 1,1 1,9 IIpHMe'laHHe: BKn)OQaeTCJl cpe,Il,Hero,Il.OBOe KOJlH'IeCT80 HaeMlfhlX paOOntKK08. JifCTO'lHHK: Roeznik Staty8tycimy 1992; Moly Rocznik Sta'Y.!Yczny 1993. 76 Be3pa6omULla, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U P'blHOK mpyoa Ta6JJHua 2-3. nOJIbwa: npOH3BO,l:lCTBO npOMblWJIeHHOH np0,l:lYKYHH no to e ~ .. ~ 0 0 ?> ...... ...... o 1.0 1.0 ~ !~ ~~ 1.0 1.0 ~ ::I '0 1.0 ...... ...... ~ D fill .... .... Ii! o 1.0 1.0 l:I ~ 1.0 1.0 N N :;: J: :;: g o C.l ~ :Xl ~ " \0 80 Be3pa6omUlla, nepecmpofiKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa B. UeHbl npOM3BO,llMTen.R M Cpe~H.R.R 3apa6oTHa.R nnaTa AAA AA A 01990-19910 1992 AAA AA A 01990.1991~ 1992 ilo.tlbW.a 81 C. PeaJIbHaJl3apa6OTHaJI nnaTa Ha oAHoro pa604ero AAA AA A 01990-1991ml 1992 D. PeanbHblH Ci~c siluation in fU"lll balf of 1993. Rz.oozpospoIjIa, Au&uot 7. 1993. Bo-nepBbIX, npoyeccbl YCTaHOBneHHH pa3MepOB 3apa60THOH nnaTbl B rOCYAapCTBeHHOM H B \laCTHOM cercropax MOryT nO,Q\lHHHTbCH npOTHBOnOnQ)KHbIM TeH,QeHYHHM 8• BepOHTHO, \ITO B \laCTHOM cercrope 6onee, \leM B roCY,QapCTBeHHOM, pacnpOCTpaHeHbl pa3Hoo6pa3Hbie CTHMYnHpYlOl,UHe 3q,q,ercrHBHbIH TPY,Q CHCTeMbl3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl, npH HCnOnb30BaHHH KOTOPblX onnaTa TpYAa YCTaHaBnHBaeTCH Ha ypOBHe, npeBOCXO,QHl!,!eM paBHOBeCHYIO 3apa6oTHYIO nnary. B pe3ynbTaTe ypOBeHb onnaTbl TpY,Qa B \laCTHOM cercrope YCTaHaBlIHBaeTCH B npHMOH 3aBHCHMOCTH OT ero HHTeHCHBHOCTH. npH 3TOM CYl,UeCTBOBa- HHe 6e3pa60THIJ,bl orpaHH\lHBaeT pOCT onnaTbl TpY,Qa, nOCKonbKY CYMMa 3apa60THOH nnaTbI, KOTOPYIO rOTOBbl 3annaTHTb BnaAenbUbl \laCTHbIX npeAnpHHTHH CBepx noc06HH no 6e3pa60THlJ,e, HBJIHeTCH y6bIBalOl,UeH q,YHKUHeH 6e3pa6oTHUbl 9• EcnH B rOCYAapCTBeHHOM 8. AHanH3 3TOH TeHAeHUHH cOAepX4>BI\BeoT' Prow.. 290.4 270.9 284.8 283.1 2n.8 300.1 TPYAoM KBaPTBJlhHlt18 Bcero 166.6 162,3 168.1 171.4 168.2 186.6 1t034>4>BI\Beo'" I'yqm., .. 170.7 165.0 169.5 170.5 168.9 178.2 TPYAOM Ha,u,CItC aCHY- Bcero 2.021 1.636 4.495 4.056 3.352 4.979 MCTPBJf Prow.. 1.765 1.440 1.660 1.731 1.529 2,485 TPYAoM Ko34>4>BDBeoT Bccro 45.0 40.9 51.9 53.1 49.0 68.0 aapBaIlBB I'yqm., .. 46.4 41.3 44.0 44.0 42.8 48.4 TPYAOM a. OTBOmCBHC 9 ACIlBJI. It I ACQ,BJIIO. B. 011l0WCRBC 3 ACQ,JIJl.a It 1 ACQ,BnJO. c. OTHOmCOBC MOMCHT8 TpeTloero nOpJl,D;K8 It CT8H,Jl.8PTHOWY OTIUIOHCHHIO B TpeTbeH CTenCHH. HCTO'lllBlt: Hagemejcr 1993. PA3JUiYRH B YPOBHHX OnJIATbI TPYAA ME)KAY roCYAAP- CTBEHHbIM R YACTHbIM CEKTOPOM. OTCYTCTBHe COOTBeTCTBYJOI!!HX CTaTHCTH4eCKHX ):laHHbIX He n03BOJlfleT C nOJlHOH yaepeHHOCTbJO YTBep)f(J:taTb, 4TO pa60THHKH 3aHHTepeCOBaHbl B nepeXO):le H3 rOCY):lapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa B 4aCTHbIH. COrJlaCHO ocjJH!,!HaJlbHOH CTaTHCTHKe, 3apa6oTHafl nJlaTa B 4aCTHOM ceKTope B Cpe):lHeM HH)I(e, 4eM B rOCY):lapCTBeHHOM. B npOMblWJleHHOCTH H TOprOBJle 3TO ):lei1cTBHTeJlbHO TaK, O):lHaKO B OCTaJ1bHbIX OTpaCJ1f1X ccjJepbl yCJlyr H B CTPOHTeJlbCTBe 3apa6oTHafl nJ1aTa Bblwe Ha 4aCTHblX npe):lnpHflTHflX (Ta6J1Hua 2-8). Ta6J1Hua 2-8. 3apa6oTHafl nJlaTa B rocY):lapCTBeHHoM H B 4aCTHOM ceKTopax B 1992-93 IT. (cpe):lHeMeCfl4Hafl, TbIC. 3J10TbIX). KneropHfI 1992 1993 fOCYAap- qacTHblH fOCYAapCT- qacTHblii cTBeHHblH seHHblH npOMblwneHHOCTb 3171 2551 4221 3564 Toprosnfl 3295 2425 4421 3256 CTpOHTenbCTBO 2921 3069 3627 3852 TpaHcnopT 2779 3070 3776 4223 HOTO'lllHlt: U!J5y Slal1811caJ Bull,,"n. W....w. January 1M. ilO.tlbULa 89 TIepBoe o6'bHcHeHHe, KOTOpOe 3neCb HanpaU.lHBaeTCH, COCTOHT B TOM, 'ITO B COCTaB '1aCTHOrO CeKTOpa BXOnHT naBHO C03naHHbie KOOnepaTHBbl, qJHHaHCbl KOTOPblX HaXOnHTCH B 6eCnOpHnO'lHOM COCTOHHHH. Ho H nOCJle BblneJIeHHH KOOnepaTHBOB B Q:laKTOpHOM aHaJIH3e nepeBeC rocynapCTBeHHOrO CeKTOpa B npOMblWJleHHOCTH COXpaHHeTCH. K Co:>!pHMaH (1992), 3neCb, O'leBHnHO, He neHCTByeT. 3Q:lQ:leKT COCTOHT B nOMep)f(Ke pecbopM CO CTOPOHbl 3amlTbiX B npHXOn.RI.J.&HX B ynanOK OTpaCJlHX, HaOJllOnalOYlHX 3a ycnexaMH pa60THHKOB HOBblX paCTYYlHX npennpH1~­ THH. 90 Ee3pa6omUl../a. nepecmpoi1x:a 3X:OHOMUKU U pblHOX: mpyoa PHC)'HOK 2-4. YpoBeHb 3aH.RTOCTH H 3apa6OTHaH nJJaTa. A. ,[lOJJH 3aHHTbIX B o6r,ueH tlHCJJeHHOCTH pa6oTHHKOB B lle!,!HJJHx. II - - - 10 - F ,- , ,... I -- .- - f- - f- r-r- r--f- r-'--- - r-r- - r- - r- f-- f-r- f-- - f-- - - r- f- - - r- r- - f-r- - - f-r- - - - - f- o !J .'r '-; ~'--; '-; '-- o 'I Ii rocy~pCTBeHlILJlI cerrop "' B. PacnpelleJJeHHe 3apa6oTHoH nJJaTbl B rocYllapCTBeHHoM H B tfac- THOM ceKTopax B lleUHJJflX. lA,-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ 1 2 + - - -_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ 0.1 o Bcero • HCmme BOPOTBlfClKH" i:l "BeJlhle BOPOTlm'IKH" MHHHMAJIbHAH TIPHEMJIEMAR 3APAEOTHAH TIJIATA. B aHKeTe o6cJJellOBaHHH pa60tfeH CHJJbI (LFS) COllep:lKHTCfI Bonpoc, Ha B Ta6JJH!,!e KaKyto 3apa6oTHYIO nJJaTY COrJJaCHJJHCb 6bl 6e3pa6OTHbre. 2-9 npHBollHTCH pacnpelleJJeHHe OTBeTOB Ha ceHTH6pb 1992 r. B COnOCTaBJJeHHH C MHHHMaJJbHOH H co cpellHeMeCfltfHOH 3apa6oTHoH ilO.tlbUla 91 nJIaTOH B nOJIbWe Ha HOH6pb 1992 r. CpeJlHeMeCH4HaH 3apa60THaH nJIaTa, Ha KOTOP)'lO COrJIaCHJIHCb 6bl 6e3pa60THble, COCTaBJIHeT 1.9 MJIH. 3JIOTbIX. n04TH 40% onpoweHHblx corJIaCHJIHCb 6bJ nOJIyqaTb 3apa60TH)'lO nJIary 6JIH3K)'lO K MHHHMaJIbHOH, OT 1 AO 1.5 MJIH. npH COnOCTaBJIeHHH pacnpeAeJIeHHH 6e3pa60THbiX B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT O)KHAaeMOH 3apa6OTHoH nJIaTbl H pacnpeAeJIeHHH pa60THHKOB no ypOBHIO OnJIaTbl TPYAa BblHCHHeTCH, 4T0 ypoBeHb 3apa60THoH nJIaThl, Ha KOTOPblH npeTeHA)'lOT 6e3pa60THble, He HBJIHeTCH cepbe3HbiM npenHTCTBHeM AJIH TpYAOYCTpoHCTBa. Ta6JIHua 2-9. nOJIbwa: YCTpaHBalOlUaH 6e3pa60THb1X 3apa60THaH nJIaTa, 1992 (B % K 4HCJIeHHOCTH OTBeTHBWHX H B MJIH. 3JI.). riOllxollR~aR 3apa6oTHaR nnaTa 86~R MYlK'fHHbI SkeH~HHbI$aKTH'feCKOe pac- (r.mH.3n.) npeAeneHHe 3apa- 6oTHOH nnaTbi MeHee 1 1,1 0.8 1,3 0,0 1-1,5 36,8 28,1 45,1 4,5 1,5-2 38,3 37,2 39,3 14,1 2-2,5 11.6 15.3 8,1 19,9 2.5-3 8,5 12,9 4,4 17,2 CBblwe 3 3,7 5,7 1,8 44,3 CpellHlI1I nOllxollR~aR 3apa60THaR 1,9 2.1 1.8 nnaTa CpeAHlI1I opMa~HH no 6e3pa60TH~e . .no 1992 r. BCSI HH4>oPMa~HSI no 6e3pa60TH~e CBOAHnaCb K AaHHblM 0 3apernCTpHpoBaHHblx 6e3pa60THbix. TaKHe CBeAeHHR 3a 1990 r. He BnonHe AOCTOBepHbI, nOTOMY 'ITO AOCTyn K noc06HRM no 6e3pa60TH~e 6b1n cnHWKOM WHPOKHM, a opraHH3a~HH pa60TbI cny*6b13aHRTOCTH He n03BonSlna o6ecneqHTb perymlpHblii yqeT H 06pa60TKY HH4>opMa~HH. l.lepe3 HeKoTOpoe BpeMSI H B TOH, H B APyroii 06naCTH npoH30wnH H3MeHeHHR K nyqweMy. 3aTo Ha KaqeCTBe BpeMeHHblX PRAOB OTpa3HnHcb H3MeHeHHSI npaBHn perncTpa~HH, a TaK*e nepHOAHqeCKHe HcnpaBneHHSI 3anHceH B pernCTpa~HOHHblX *ypHanax. TaK, nocne YCTaHoaneHHSI B KOH~e 1991 r. MaKCHManbHoro CpOKa BbinnaTbi noc06Hii B 12 MeCRl.\eB KOJlHqeCTBO 3apernCTpHpoBaHHblx 6e3pa60THbix 3HaqHTenbHO COKpaTHnOCb. B ycnoBHRx, KorAa cny*6a 3aHRTOCTH 3aHHMaeTCR rnaBHblM 06pa30M pernCTpal.\Heii BbinnaTbi noc06Hii, a He aKTHBHOH pa60Toii Ha pblHKe TpYAa, 6e3pa60THble, He HMelOlUHe npaBa Ha noc06He, He 3aHHTepeCOBaHbI B pernCTpal.\HH. B 1990 H 1991 IT. Kpyr AaHHblX 0 3apernCTpHpoBaHHblX 6e3pa60THbix 6b1Jl OqeHb Y3KHM. C 1992 r., nocne BBeAeHHSI HOBbiX pernCTpal.\HOHHblX 4>OPM, OH 3HaqHTeJlbHO YBenHqHncSI. C MaSi 1992 r. IJ.eHTpanbHOe CTaTHCTHqecKoe ynpaaneHHe (GUS) HaqanO npoBoAHTb e*eKBapTanbHble o6cneAoBaHHSI pa60qeii CHnbl. Ho eAHHCTBeHHblM HCTOqHHKOM HH4>0pMaI.\HH 0 pernOH8JlbHblX ypOBHHX 6e3pa6oTHl\bI OCTaBanHCh cBeAeHHSI 0 3apernCTpHpoBaHHblx 6e3pa60THblx, nOCKOJlbKY 06beM Bbl60PKH B nepenHcSlx 6b1n cnHWKOM Man AnSI nonyqeHHSI penpe3eHTaTHBHblx AaHHblx no BOeBOAcTBaM. MH4>0pMaI.\HSI 3THX AByX HCTOqHHKOB He BnonHe conOCTaBHMa. nOA onpeAeneHHe, npHHSlToe B nepenHCSlX (LFS) nOj:\naj:\aIOT He Bce 3apernCT- pHpOBaHHble 6e3pa60THbie. KpOMe TOro, cornaCHO pe3ynbTaTaM nepenHceH, AaneKO He Bce 6e3pa60THbie 3apernCTpHpoBaHbI. no j:\aHHblM nepenHCH 1992 r., 8.6% 6e3pa6oTHbix COCTaBnSlIOT j:\OCPO'lHO Bblwej:\WHe Ha neHCHIO. Be3pa6omUl.ja, pa60'-laR cUlia U 3aHRmocmh. vb Ta6m1Ubi 2-10 BHAHO, 4TO POCT 6e3pa60THYbi C 1989 no 1992 r. npoHCXOAHJI 3a C4eT cOKpal1!eHH.fI 3aH.fITOCTH Ha 2 MJIH. 4eJIOBeK H 3a C4eT YBeJIH4eHH.fI 4HCJIeHHOCTH pa604eH CHJIbl Ha 500 TbIC. 4eJIOBeK I2• 12. K CO:lKaJIem1l0, HHcpopMaYH.fI no ::rrOMY Bonpocy npOTHBope4HBa. ECJIH MaTepHaJIbl nepenHCH YKa3blBalOT Ha COKpal1!eHHe 4HCJIeHHOCTH pa604eH CHJIbl B nepBble rO.flbl pecpopM, TO no HHcpopMaYHH UeHTpaJIb- Horo CTaTHCTH4ecKoro ynpaBJIeHH.fI (GUS), ypOBeHb 3KOHOMH4eCKOH aKTHBHOCTH HaCeJIeHH.fI YBeJIH4HJIC.fI. no AaHHblM nepenHcH 1992 r., B Mae 1992 r. OHa COCTaBJI.fIJIa 61.4% (.flJI.fI MY:lK4HH - 69,9%, AJI.fI )l(eHl1!HH 53.7%). B nepHo.fl nOCJIe 1970 r. ::rrOT nOKa3aTeJIb HenpepblBHo CHH)I(aJIC.fI: C 70.6% B 1970 r. AO 65.3% B 1988 r.(no .flaHHbIM nepenHcH), a 3aTeM .flO 61.4% B 1992 r.(no .flaHHbIM LFS). flOllbWa 93 ECJUI 3TH ,naHHble nO,nTBep,nflTCfI, TO MO)I(HO rOBOpHTb 0 He06bl'IaHHO CHllbHOM pOCTe CTeneHH 3KOHOMH'IeCKOH aKTHBHOCTH HaCelleHHfI nOClle 1990 r. 3TO npe,nnOllaraeT, 'ITO KOllH'IeCTBa BnepBble BcrynalOI,UHX 14 B03BpaJ,UalOJ,UHXCfI B COCTaB pa60'IeH CHJ1bl HaCTOllbKO 3Ha'IHTeJJbHbl, 'ITO KOMneHCHpYIOT pOCT 'IHClla ,nOCP0'IHO BblWe,nWHX Ha neHCHIO. B 1990-91 IT. 143 COCTaBa pa60'IeH CHllbl B CBfl3H C ,nOCP0'IHbIM BbIXO,nOM Ha neHCHIO no B03paCTY HllH no COCTOflHHIO 3,nOPOBbfl Bbl6blllO OKOllO 700 TbIC. 'IellOBeK (Ta6llHua 2-11)13. Ha ,nOCp0'IHble BbIXO,nbl Ha neHCHIO npHxo,nHTCfI cYJ,UeCTBeHHafi 'IaCTb Ha'IaBwerOCfI B 1990 r. YMeHbweHHfI 'IHClleHHOCTH 3aHflTb1X. B nOClle,nHee :lICe BpeMfi MHorne 143 OCTaBHBWHX pa60TY nblTaJIHCb BHOBb BCTynHTb B COCTaB pa60'IeH CHllbl. nOKa3aTellb COKpaJ,UeHHfI 3aHHTOCTH B 1990-92 IT.(2 MllH. 'IelloBeK) 6blll pacc'IHTaH no BceM npe,nnpHflTHflM, 3a HCKJ11O'IeHHeM 'IaCTHbiX cellbcKoxooflHCTBeHHblx. B 1992 r., Kor,na 06'beM BBn nepeCTall CHH:lICaTbCfI, 3aMennHllOCb H cOKpaJ,UeHHe 3aHflTOCTH no cpaBHeHHIO C 1990- 91 IT. TeMnbl na,neHHR npoH3Bo,nCTBa, oc06eHHo B 1990-91 IT., npeBocxo,nHllH TeMnbl YMeHbweHHfI 'IHClleHHOCTH 3aHflTbiX (cooTBeTCTBeHHo, 20% 14 10%). O,nHaKo 31'0 He Clle,nyeT pac!.!eHHBaTb KaK Clle,nCTBHe clla60H peaK!JHH npe,nnpHHTHH Ha H3MeHeHHe 3KOHOMH'IeCKHX YCllOBHH: B ,neHCTBHTellbHOCTH OHH HMelOT B03MO}f(HOCTb a,nanTHpOBaTbCfI He nYTeM COOTBeTCTBYIOJ,Uero COKpar,ue- HHfI WTaTOB, a ,npyrnMH cnoc06aMH. 3TO, Bo-nepBbIX, COKpaJ,UeHHe pa60'Iero BpeMeHH 3a C'IeT OTKa3a OT 3aMeJ,UeHHfI OTCYTCTBYIOI,UHX pa60THHKOB, llHKBH,na!JHH CBepxyp0'IHbiX pa60T, YMeHbweHHfI npo,nOll}f(HTeJJbHOCTH pa60'IeH He,nellH 14 npHHy,nHTellbHblX OTnYCKOB, KaK onlla'IHBaeMblX, TaK 14 Heonlla'IHBaeMblX. B 1989 r. 06J,UHH op..aq.... 0 Kon""..".Be .aHJiThIll ... 1m r. OTJu,qae_ OT lIHop..aq.. H, npe,u;CT4BlIemtoA GUS. HCTO'lHHK: oqeHlt .. COCTAllJIell1ol no: Roczaik SlO.tyStyoopoUIO. Fc:bruoJy 6, 1993; and GUS report ott oocioe«JlloopoUta, August 7, 1993. Ilo.nbUJ.a 95 Ta6nHua 2-11. nonbwa: Bblwe):tWHe Ha neHCHIO. 1985-92. HOCTHnuHe neHcHoHHOro 19& 1988 1989 1990 1991 BO:lpaCTa KonH'IecTIIO (Tl>lc) 118 136 133 144 138 BI>lWe,ll;WHe Ha neHCHIO 382 405 437 653 912 481 ITo UO:lpaCTY 127 132 158 322 497 160 ITo COCTOIIHHIO 3,11;OPOBbli 174 189 188 243 318 236 - lleT JtB,IIlIblI:. TIPBMCqUHC: ncaCRB :saH..IITbIX • CCJlIlCEOM XOuiCTBC ae BltnJOQ8JOTU. HlWneHHOCTb (Ha OA- 1874.2 1818.6 1721.3 1655,0 Horo pa6oTHHKa) ITpeAwecTBj'IO""HH roA ~ 100 97,0 94.6 94,1 CuepxypO'lHaSl pa60Ta B 1. K 7.8 7,3 4.8 4.1 o6""eMY pa60'leMY »peMeHH ·UCT .a.an~IX. HCTO"""'" Roeznik Sla'YS')'CZl\)'. GUS, 1989. 19\10. 1991. 1992. OHa poena Me):tneHHee (T36J1Hua 2-12). )J,pyrOH enoc06 a):tanTaUHH KOJlH4eCTBa 33HHTblX eOCTOHT B orpaHH4eHHH Ha60pa HOBblX COTPY):tHHKOB ):to ypOBHH, KOTOPblH ):tHKTYIOT JlHWb nOTpe6HoCTHMH TeXHOJlOnf4eCKOro npouecca. B 1990 r. 06ij!ee KOJlH4eCTSO npHHHTbIX Ha pa60TY H3 rocY):tapcTseHHble npOMblWJleHHble npe):tnpHHTHH cOKpaTHJlOCb 60Jlee 4eM H3 30% (no rocY):tapeTseHHoMY ceKTopy s UeJlOM - Ha 24%), a 061J!ee 4HCJlO yaOJlbHeHHH YBeJlH4HJlOCb seero H3 7%, MeHbwe, 4eM B 1989 r. (11%) (Ta6JlHua 2-13)15. B 1992 r. ):tOJlR npHHRTblX Ha pa60TY B rocY):tap- cTseHHblH ceKTop 6blJla npH6JlH3HTeJlbHO TaKoH )Ke, KaK B 1990 r., H COCTaBJlRJla 11.9%, 4TO, eCJlH Y4ecTb pa3JlH4HH MaKp03KoHoMH4ecKHx YCJlOBHH H ):tHHaMHKH npOH3Bo):tCTBa B 3TH rO):tbl, BeCbMa Y):tHBHTeJlbHO. 15. K CO)KaJleHHIO, 3a 1991 r. conOCT3SHMblX ):t3HHbIX HeT; cYlJ!eCT- SYIOT JlHWb cYMMapHble UHCPPbl no rocY):tapCTBeHHoMY H 4aCTHOMY ceKTop3M. 96 De3pa6omulJa, nepecmpoi11(a 31(OHOMU1(U U PblH01( mpyiJa YHcno YSOnbHeHHH 3Ha4HTenbHO COKpaTHnOCb no cpaSHeHHIO C 1989 rO~OM. Ta6nHua 2-13, nonbwa, 06lJAee 4Hcno HaH1ITbIX H ysoneHHblX pa60THHKOB, 1988-92. ~TeropHSI !~n 1~~~ 1~~ le~11 l~e~1 0611lee KonHtJeCTBO HaH.fITI>JX H )'80- neHHlllX pa60THHKOB 1960 1908 1453 1721 1642 06Lqee KOnH'IecT80 HaHSlTWX pa6OTHHKo8 Ilpe~wecT8YJOU{Hii ro~ E 1 0.973 0,761 · b 06U{ee KOnH'IecTIIO yaoneHHblx pa6oTHHKOII Ilpe~wecTIIYJOU{Hii ro~ = 1 KOnH'IecTIIO HaHSlTWX pa6oTHHK08 II npoMblw- 2178 692 2417 2594 1110 1073 699 485 · 2727 532 2040 586 b neHHOCTH Ilpe~wecT8YJOU{Hii ro~ = 1 1.010 0.694 KonH'IecT8o yaoneHHblx paOOTHHKoB Ilpe~wecTBYJOU{HA ro~ • 1 YpOBHH YBonbHeHH.fI H HaHMa (B %K 788 879 938 1115 1,067 · 961 734 b aaH.fITblM Ha KOHeu npeAweCTBYlOlIle- ro rOAa) HaHM pa60THHKo8. IIcero 17.3 16.2 12,2 16,1 17.9 YBom.HeHHe pa60THHK08. Bcero 18.0 19.8 23.0 26.8 22,4 rocy~apCTBeHHwH ceKTOP HaHM pa6OTHHKoII 11,9 YBom.HeHHll pa60THHK08 18.4 l..{aCTHblH ceKTop HaHM pa60THHKoII 38,8 YllonhHeHHSI pa60THHKOII 36,3 IlpoMwwneHHOCTh HaHM pa60THHKOB 16.1 15,8 10,7 12,9 17,1 YaonbHeHHSI pa60THHKoB 17.2 19,3 22,0 25,2 21,6 rocy~apCTaeHHblH ceKTOp HaHM pa6oTHHKOII 10,8 YBonbHeHHSI pa6OTHHKo8 18,6 l..{aCTHblH ceKTOp HaHM pa60THHKOII 40,4 YBonbHeHHSI pa6oTHHKOB 32,5 a• .no 1990 r. TOJIbltO ·COIlHaJlH3Hpoaamn.IH' c&nop• • 1991 r. rOCYJ\llWf""roo.IB II '1acTl1blil C&ItTOP, •• BCKJIIO'1eHB... IDWfBruyaJI ... oi TpY",OBOJi .... BT.......OCTII ('zaklady ooob lizyKe B 1992 r., BO BpeMfi O:>KHBneHHfI 3KOHOMHKH, flBHblX npH3HaKoB ysenH4eHHfI KonH4eCTBa TpY~OYCTpoeHHbIX He 6blno. n03TOMY Hccne~OBaTenH C4HTaIOT, 4TO 6e3pa60THua HOCHT rnaBHblM 06pa30M 3acmou'Hblil xapaKmep (Boeri 1993). Ta6J1Hga 2-14. KonH4eCTBa nHU, 3apernCTpHpoBaHHbix 6e3pa60THblMH H Bbl6blBUlHX H3 4Hcna 6e3pa60THb1X, no OTHOUleHHIO K 06l,ijeMY 4Hcny 6e3pa6OTHblx (8 npo4eHmax) J!!Ifecsu.\ ~poBeHb npHToKa l ~poBeHb OTTOKa ~poBeH!> TPYAOYCTpo!CTBa 1/92 6,14 3.53 1.94 2/92 4,61 3,08 2.13 3/92 4,29 5,59 2,23 4/92 4,60 4,51 2,70 5/92 4,81 4,35 2,58 6/92 7,69 4,63 2,36 7/92 8,38 3,48 2,00 8/92 4,86 2,87 1,84 9/92 6,00 4.31 2,58 10/92 5,15 6,00 3,23 11/92 5,49 4,98 2,64 12/92 5,13 4,35 1,90 1/93 7,04 4,06 1,89 2/93 5,12 3,49 1,87 3/93 4,90 4,03 2,02 B cpeAHeM 5,61 4,22 2,26 a B Yo ,{HcneHHOCTH 6e3pa6oTHhiX HH3KHe nOKa3aTenH npHTOKa B 4Hcno 6e3pa6oTHbIX CnO:>KHnHCb no~ BnHflHHeM BbiCOKHX nOKa3aTeneH BbI6blTHfi H3 COCTaBa pa604eH CHnbl 3a C4eT ~OCp04HOrO BblXO~a Ha neHCHlO, a TaK:>Ke 6naro~apfl TOMY, 4TO npe~npHflTHfi CTapanHCb H36eraTb ysonbHeHHH, COKpal,ijafl lPOH~ pa604ero BpeMeHH. KpOMe Toro, 3Ha4HTenbHoro pacnpOCTpaHe- 16. YpOBHH CTpaH C PbIH04HOH 3KOHOMHKOH CM. B Boed 1993, a TaK:>Ke HH:>Ke B ~aHHoH KHHre. 98 Be3pa6omuqa, nepecmpoiiKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa HHfl1l0CTHrJ10 nepepacnpe.z:\eJ1eHHe 3aHfITbiX 3a C"IeT HenOCpenCTBeHHO- ro nepeXOna C OnHOrO MeCTa pa60Tbi Ha npyroe, MHHYFI COCTOflHHe 6e3pa60THUbl. OnHaKO MaClUTa6bl3TOrO flBJ1eHHfI, BepOFITHO, npeYSeJlH- "IeHbl CTaTHCTH"IeCKOH OT"IeTHOCTblO. l..{HCJ10 nepelUenlUHX C OnHOrO MeCTa pa60Tbi Ha npyroe paCC"IHTaHO KaK pa3HHlJa Me>Kn)' 06l,UHM KOJ1H"IeCTBOM npHHflTblX Ha pa60TY H KOJ1H"IeCTBOM TpynOYCTpOeHHblX 6e3pa60THb1X, KOTOpble B 1992 r. COCTaBJ1f1J1H COOTBeTCTBeHHO 60J1ee 1.6 MJ1H. "IeJ10BeK H OK0J10 500 TbIC. "IeJ10BeK. TaKHM 06pa30M, no npH6J1H3HTeJ1bHbIM oueHKaM. HenoCpenCTBeHHo nepelUenlUHe C npyrOf'O MeCTa COCTaBMH OK0J10 70% npHHflTblX Ha pa60ry. OnHaKo nOKa3aTe- J1H TpynoYCTpoHCTBa 6e3pa60THbIX, BHnHMO. CHJ1bHO 3aHH)f(eHbl. nOCKOJ1bKY OHH BKnIO"IaIOT J1HlUb HalUenlUHX pa60TY "Iepe3 CJ1Y)l(6bl I7 3aHflToCTH • OueHKa "IHCJ1a nepelUenlUHX C onHoro MeCTa pa60Tbi Ha npyroe. HCXOnfll,Uafi H3 KOJ1H"IeCTBa YSOJ1HBlUHXCfI "no c06CTBeHHoMY )l(eJ1aHHIO", "ITO "Ial,Ue Bcero nOnpa3YMeBaeT nepexon Ha npyryIO pa60TY, npenCTaBJ1f1eTCfI 60J1ee nOCTOBepHoH. YBOJ1bHeHHfI no 3TOH npH"IHHe COCTaBJ1f1IOT npHMepHo 30% OT HX 061,1!ero KOJ1H"IeCTBa. ECJ1H HCXOnHTb H3 Toro. "ITO 3TOT KOCBeHHblH nOKa3aTeJ1b 1l0CTaTO"lHO TO"lHO xapaKTepH3Y1OT 'lHcno nepeUIe.z:\UIHX Ha llPYr)'IO pa60TY. TO MO)l(HO ClleJlaTb BbIBOll, \.ITO nOllaBn.RlOl,I!a.R 4aCTb Bbl6blBUIHX H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THbiX npHXOllHTCfI Ha TpynOYCTpoeHHbiX. TenepbpaCCMOTpHMnpOTHBOn0J10)f(HNeTeHn eHlJHHBpa3BHTHH rocynapCTBeHHoro H "IaCTHOrO CeKTOpOB, CBfl3aHHbIe C "IHCTNM COKpal,UeHHeM KOJ1H"IeCTBa pa60"lHX MeCT B nepBOM H· HX "IHCTblM npHpOCTOM BO BTOpOM. KaK Y)f(e OTMe"lanOCb. 3TO He HCKJ1IO"IaeT HeOllHOPOllHOCTH BHYTPH rOCYllapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa. TeM He MeHee. 3TH npOTHBOnOnO)f(HO- HanpaBJ1eHHbIe H B3aHMOnOn0J1HflIOI,I!He npOlJeCCbI nonHOCTblO xapaKTepH3YlOT MaKp03KOHOMH"IeCKHe aCneKTbl nBIDKeHHfI 6e3pa60TH!Jbl. CJ1enyeT YTO"lHHTb. "ITO eCJ1H orpaHH"IHTbCfI aHaJ1H30M COBOKynHbIX nOTOKOB BCTynJ1eHHfI H Bbl6bITHfi H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THb1X. MO)l(HO npHHTH K HenpaBHnbHblM BbIBOllaM. nOCKonbKY 3TH nOTOKI1 nopO)f(1leHbl COBeplUeHHO pa3J1H4Hb1MI1 TeHlleHlJl1f1MH B pa3BI1THH rOCYllapCTBeHHblX 11 "IaCTHblX npennpHflTHH. D03TOMY BblBOllbl. CneJ1aHHbJe Ha OCHOBaHI1H 3KCTpan0J1f1lJHH nHHaMI1KH yneJ1bHO- ro Beca BXOnfll,l!HX 11 BblXOnfll,UHX 113 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THblX B 06IYeH "II1CJ1eHHOCTI13TOH KaTerOpl111 Bbl3blBalOT COMHeHl1e. HeJ1b3f1. HanpHMep. 17. KocBeHHblM nOKa3aTenbCTBOM HenOCTOBepHOCTH 3TOH olJeHKH flBJ1f1eTCfI nOKa3aTeJ1b Bb16b1TI1f1 6e3pa60THbiX 113 COCTaBa pa60"leH CI1J1bl. KOTOPblH B 1990 r. COCTaBl1n 500 TbIC. 4enOBeK. nO.ll'bWG 99 CtJHTaTb a6COnIOTHO npaBHnbHblM 3aKJIIOtJeHHe a HeH36e)KHOM coxpaHe- HHH 3aCTOHHoro xapaKTepa 6e3pa6oTH!.lbl B 6ynYJ,YeM, BblTeKalOlJ.lee H3 3KCTpanOn.H!.lHH neHCTBYJOIJ.lHX TeHneH!.lHH nHHaMHKH OTHOCHTenbHOH tJHcneHHOCTH YBoneHHbIX. Ha 0PMbl C06CTBeHHOCTH Ha ~aCTHYJO. TaKHM 06pa30M, B 6YAYJ,UeM BeCbMa BepOHTHO 3aMeJV1eHHe pOCTa 3aHHTOCTH B ~aCTHOM ceKTope. ,[.leno B TOM. ~O pOCT 60nee ,QHHaMH~HbIX OTPacneM. oc06eHHO cpe,QHHX H KpynHblX npe,QnpHHTHM npOMblwneHHOCTH, - npouecc ropa3,Q0 60nee CnO:lKHbIM. ~eM pOCT MenKHX TopraBblX Q>HPM, T.K. OH Tpe6yeT KpynHblX KanmaJIOBnO:lKe- HHM. a 3Ha~m, cB060,QHora ,QoCTyna K pblHKaM KanHTana. TIo ,QaHHbIM onpoCOB POCTY cpe,QHHx H KpynHblX npoMblwneHHblX npe,QnpHHTHM npenHTCTBYIOT Ha npaKTHKe He,QOCTaTO~Hoe npe,QnO:lKeHHe KanHTana Ha BHYTpeHHeM pblHKe, BblCOKaH CTaBKa npoueHTa H HeCTa6HnbHOCTb 3KOHOMH~eCKOM cmyaUHH (Johnson 1993). EcnH B ~aCTHOM ceKTope coxpaHHTcH npe06na,QaHHe ManblX npe,QnpHHTHM, TO ero a6cop6UHOHHbie B03MO:lKHOCTH 6yAYT orpaHH~eH­ HbIMH. B KOHUe 1992 r. 30% 3aHHTbiX B ~aCTHOM ceKTope, ,Qa:lKe B npOMblwneHHOCTH, COCTaBnHnH pa60THHKH npe,QnpHHTHM c ~HcnOM 3aHHTbiX MeHee 5 ~enoBeK23. Be3pa6omul.Ja, cmpyKmypHble npeo6pa3o(JaHuR U poem B ,QaHHOM pa3,Qene cHCTeMaTH3HpYeTCH H3nO:lKeHHaH Bblwe HHQ>opMa- UHH H ,QenalOTCH BbIBO,Qbl. HaH60nee Ba:lKHOe npe,QnonO:lKeHHe 3aK11lO~a­ eTCH B TOM, ~O 3aBHCHMOCTb ,QHHaMHKH 6e3pa60THUbi OT pOCTa ~aCTHoro ceKTopa cYTJJeCTByeT. o,QHaKo xapaKTep ee He onpe,QeneH. H3MeHeHHe CTpyKTYPbl 3KOHOMHKH H nepepacnpe,QeneHHe TPY,QOBbIX pecypcOB nopO)I(.QaeT "6e3pa60THUY nepeXO,QHoro nepHO,Qa", KOTopaH c POCTOM ~aCTHora ceKTopa yBenH~HBaeTcH. TIepBoHa~anbHO ~aCTHbIM ceKTOp cnHwKOM Man JV1H TPY,Q0YCTPOMCTBa 6e3pa6OTHblX, HO ~epe3 HeKOTopoe BpeMH OH ,QOCTHrHeT TaKHX pa3MepOB, ~TO n03BonHT 06ecne~HTb cOKpal!!eHHe 6e3pa60THUbl. 3TO npe,QnonO:lKeHHe nO,QTBep- ,QHnocb B xO,Qe aHaJIH3a HHQ>opMaUHH 0 pa3BHTHH pa3J1H~HbIX OTpacneM no 49 BoeBO,QCTBaM. TIpaB,Qa, H3-3a OTCYTCTBHH He06xo,QHMoro Kpyra ,QaHHbIX, nonHOCTblO CTaTHCTH~eCKH 060cHoBaHHbiM era C~HTaTb Henb3H. Ha pHC:yHKe 2-6a npHBo,QHTCH YPOBHH HaMMa pa60~eM CHnbl B ~aCTHOM ceKTope, a TaK:lKe YPOBHH 6e3pa60THUbi no 49 pernoHaM. t.{epe3 pacceHHHble TO~KH ,QHarpaMMbl MO:lKHO npoBeCTH npH6nH3HTenb- HO KonoKono06pa3HYIO KPHBYJO. 3aKoHoMepHoCTb pa3,QeneHHH ::ITOM 23. TIocne HCK11IO~eHHH KoonepaTHBOB::ITa ,QonH OKa3blBaeTCH Bblwe - OKono 40%. flOJlblUG 105 KPHBOH Ha JlBe 4aCTH. OJlHY C nonO)j(HTenbHblM, a J:\PYryro C OTpH!.!a- TenbHblM K03cpcpH!.!HeHTOM HaKnOHa, nOJ:\TBep)t(JlaeTCSJ CTaTHCTH4eCKH- MH J:\aHHbIMH. T04Ka nepern6a COOTBeTCTByeT 3Ha4eHHIO ypOBHSJ HaHMa pa604eH CHnbl B 34%. CneayeT OTMeTHTb, "ITO HHKaKOH 3aBHCHMOCTH ypOBHeM HaHMa pa604eH CHnbl B rOCYJ:\apCTBeHHOM ceKTope H ypOBHeM 6e3pa6oTH!.!bl He npOCne)t(HBaeTCSJ (pHCYHOK 2-6B). YpOBeHb 6e3pa6oTH!.!bl HaXOJ:\HTCSJ B TeCHOH B3aHMOCBSJ3H C 4HcnOM yaonbHeHHH B rOCYJ:\apCTBeHHOM ceKTope, OJ:\HaKO K 4aCTHOMY ceKTOpy 3TO He OTHOCHTCSJ (pHCYHKH 2-6c H 2-6d). YiHTepecHO TaK)j(e OTMeTHTb OTCYTCTBHe pa3HH!.!bl B 4HCTbiX nOKa3aTenSJX npHeMa Ha pa60TY (T.e. pa3HOCTH Me)t(J:IY KonH4eCTBOM npHHSJTbIX H KonH4eCTBOM yaoneHHblX) KaK Ha rocYJ:\ap- CTBeHHbIX. TaK H Ha 4aCTHbiX npeJ:\npHSJTHSJX no pernOHaM (pHCYHOK 2-6e). To )j(e caMoe MO)j(HO CKa3aTb H 06 061!!eH 4HcneHHOCTH npHHSJTblX Ha pa60TY (pHCYHOK 2-6[). Bce 3TH JlaHHbie nOJ:\TBep)t(JlaIOT cYl!!eCTBOBaHHe npOTHBononO)j(HbiX TeHJ:\eH!.!HH B pa3BHTHH rocYJlap- CTBeHHoro H 4aCTHoro CeKTOpOB. npOBeJ:\eHHblH aHanH3 3aCTaBnSJeT 3aJ:\YMaTbCSJ HaJ:\ cneJ:\YJOI!!HM Ba)j(HbIM BonpOCOM: pacnpOCTpaHHTCSJ nH JleHCTBHe OTpacneBblX perno- HanbHblX TeHJleH!.!HH B nepCneKTHBe Ha HaYHOHanbHYJO 3KOHOMHKY B !.!enOM? PernOHanbHble pa3nH4HSJ, CKopee Bcero, o6ycnoBneHbi orpaHH- 4eHHOH M06HnbHOCTblO, a TaK)j(e J:\Hcnponop!.!HSJMH B COOTHorneHHH Me)t(JlY nOTeH!.!HanbHbiM KonH4eCTBOM HOBblX pa604HX MeCT (T.e. J:\ononHHTenbHblM cnpOCOM Ha TPYJ:\) H npeJ:\nO)j(eHHeM TpYJla (KonH4ec- TBOM He3aHSJTbiX pa60THHKOB). MHblMH cnOBaMH, caMblH BblCOKHH cnpoc Ha pa604YJO cHny MO)j(eT coxpaHSJTbCSJ B pernOHax C HH3KHM ypOBHeM 6e3pa60TH!.!bl. HapSJJlY C Me)j(perHOHanbHbIMH, MOrYT CYI!!eCTBOBaTb H BHYTpHpernOHanbHble J:\HcnponopYHH, Bblpa)j(alOl!!He HeCOOTBeTCTBHe CTpYKTypbl cnpoca Ha pa604YIO 4Hcny CTpYKType npeJlnO)j(eHHSJ (CTPYKTYPHaSJ 6e3pa60THya). Pe3ynbTaTbi aHanH3a TaKHXJ:\Hcnponop- !.!HH KpaTKO H3nO)j(eHbl B cneJlYJOtyeM pa3J:\ene, a nOJ:\po6HOCTH npHBOJ:\SJTCSJ B npHnO)j(eHHH. CmpYKmypm>le oucnponopl./UU Ha pbl.HKe mpyoa CytyeCTBO np06neMbi COCTOHT B TOM, "ITO HepaBHOMepHOCTb pacnpeJ:\e- neHHSJ 6e3pa6oTHYbi no pernOHaM, ccpepaM 3aHSJTOCTH H T.n. B KOHe4HOM Cl.ieTe c03J:\aeT J:\ononHHTenbHble ycnOBHSJ J:\nSJ CPOpMHpOBa- HHSJ 60nee BblCOKoro 06tyero ypOBHSJ 6e3pa6oTHijbl. B npHnO)j(eHHH npHBOJ:\SJTCSJ nOKa3aTenH HepaBHoMepHocTH, cOOTBeTCTBYlOtyHe J:\BYM ee pa3nH4HbiM TpaKToBKaM. B nepBOH OHa nOHHMaeTCSJ KaK pa3nHl.iHSJ 106 B€3pa6omul.Ja, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U pblHOK mpyoo PHCYHOK 2-6. nonbwa: pef110HanbHble pblHKH TPYJla. A. A A A A A A ""'A A A A A A A A A A J A .... At. -\ A A At. AA A A i-AA~ A ~ AA A A A B :: S A 01 t6 j) 30 4b so lib 70 'b!cno JJpIlHllt"WZ ua paClo-zy • 'DC11ILII cecop B. A ......... ... I, III ... ... Ai' A ... -\ ......I' ... ~ '1 .A:A~ A ... A ... t :& 1 ... :: s ............ ... 0 15 2b 2!1 30' qUelIo npllB.lTlolX sa paClo-zy ;& l"Oey;upcnem.rii eclCTOp 3 C. • .... !2 ", A ... ... ... ...... t 1", ",'" A ... A :I AA'" ......... ... '" ...... ... ... III A A'" ........ A '" ... 11 1 i ... ... ~ S ~ n M ~ R j) a _ u 'lHCJlO fIIOJIem!LIr • I'OCYAlPCTBelmOM europe llO.flbUia 107 D. ... ... ... ... 10& ... ... ... ... ... ... ... J It ,g ... ... ... ... ......... t ... ...... t ... ............ ... ... ... e .. 10& ...t ... -\... ... "'t ... ~ ... :h 3b 'lBCIIO yaoJlelllllolX • 'IIICTBON c:ell'.'tOpe jS 4b 45 sb E. ...... III ... 10& it 0 ... '" ... J;.:t .. AiI1t"'''' '" t 1 '" ", ... ", 11 -10 '" '" "'... ", '" t'- '" I· ~{ -20 "'", '" -30 'lBCTIoIH lloltasaTeJD. IIpIlBllTWX 1IlI F. .. pa60TY a rOCYA&pCTlIeIllJhdi CCll'.'tOp f Q, '" ~~ Ju '" ~l '" 4 4} ~ 4 4 .4 '" ~'" 4 ~ 4 :.I. 4 '" " 4 ~f 4 4 I O~ 20 ~ 4t) ~ 60 70 KOJDI'Ieeno IlPBIlI:TLIX D pa6ary • ",1IC'1'IWiI cerrop 108 Be3pa6omW.la. nepecmpoUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbtHOK mpyoa B ypOBHlIX 6e3pa60Tl-l!,!bl .rVIlI pa3HbiX rpynn HaceneHHlI; nOKa3aTenH crpynnHpoBaHbl c }"1eTOM COCTasa HaceneHHlI, H ypOBHH 6e3pa60TI-IUbi nOKa3aHbi no Ka)f();loii H3 rpynnZ4. Bo STopoii TpaKTOSKe Hecornaco- BaHHOCTb cnpoca H npennO)KeHl-llI Ha pblHKe Tpyna xapaKTepl-l3yeTclI C nOMoI,UblO nOKa3aTeneii HeCOOTBeTCTSl-llI Me)K.Qy ypOBHeM 6e3pa60TI-I- Ubi 1-1 KOnl-l4eCTBOM BaKaHCl-lii B pacnpeneneHI-IH no pernoHaM. nOKa3aTenl-l nepBoii rpynnbl He BblllsnlllOT 3Ha41-1TenbHbiX pa3nl-l41-1ii SHYTPI-I Ka)f();loii KaTeropl-Il-I, a ecnl-l OHI-I 1-1 CYI,UeCTBYJOT, TO c Te4eHi-leM BpeMeHH He YCHnHsaIOTClI. "liTO KacaeTClI pernOHanbHblX pa3nH4Hii, TO Ha npoTlI:iKeHHI-I 1992 r. OHH Crna)KHBanHCb (CM. npHnO)KeHl-le ). BTopall rpynna nOKa3aTeneii, xapaKTepl-l3YJOl,UHX TonbKO pernoHanbHble nHcnpOnOpUHI-I, YKa3blBaeT Ha ropa3no 60nbwyIO CTeneHb HepaBHoMepHoCTH. OHI-I nOKa3b1Ba1OT. 4TO 3a C4eT onHoro TonbKO nOBblWeHl-llI M06HnbHoCTH pa604eii CHnbl Me)K.Qy pernoHaMH 6e3pa60TH!JY MO)KHO COKpaTl-ITb Ha 25%. HanOMHI-lM. 'ITO HanH4He pernOH3nbHoii 060c06neHHOCTH PblHKOB Tpyna, a cnenOBaTenbHO, orp3HH4eHHoii M06HnbHOCTH pa604eii CHnbl nOnTBep)f();laeTClI pe3ynb- TaT3MH oyeHKH 3aBHCHMOCTH Me)f();lY !lHHaMHKoA 3apa6oTHoA nnaTbl H pernOHanbHblMH ypOBHlIMH 6e3pa6oTH!,!bl. BHJlbI 6eJpa6oTHQbI 3TOT pa3!len nOCBlIl,UeH xapaKTepHCTHKe CTPYKTypbl 6e3pa60THijbl. Cocma8 6e3pa6omHblX "liHcneHHOCTb 6e3p360THb1X, YCT3HOBneHHall B Xone 06cnenOB3HHH (LFS), n04TH cOBnanaeT C n3HHblMH cnY)K6bl pernCTpaijl-l1-l (H3 Maii 1992 r. - 2.254 1-1 2.229 TbIC. 4enoBeK). TeM He MeHee, 743 TbIC. \.IenOBeK, nonaBWHe B 4Hcno 6e3pa6OTHbix B Xone nepenHCH. He 6blJI0 3apernCTpHpoB3HO. TaKoe )Ke KonH4eCTBO 3aperncTpHpoBaHHbix 6e3pa60THbiX He nonnanano non npHMeHlIBwYJOclI B xone LFS KnaccHq,HK3ijHIO MOT (Ta6nHua 2-15a)25. 24. HanpHMep, npH OTHOCI-lTenbHOM YBenH4eHHH KaTeropHH nl-lij C YHHBepcHTeTCKI-IM 06pa30BaHHeM, 6e3pa60TH!.I3 cpenH KOTOPblX Bblwe cpenHeii, 3STOMaTH4eCKH np0I-ICXOnHT pOCT 06l,Uero YPOBHlI 6e3pa60- TH!,!bl. 25. CxonHall cHTyaijHlI CnO)KHnaCb H B Xone 06cnenoBaHHlI 3a cnenYJOI,UHii KBapTan: H3npHMep. Ha q,eBpanb 1993 r. 06l,Uee 4Hcno flOJ1bUia 109 P ACnPE,llEJIEHl1E no nOJIY. YHCJleHHOCTb 6e3pa60THbiX MY:lKYHH H :lKeHI,UHH npH6JlH3HTeJlbHO O):lHHaKOBa. npH 3TOM ):IOJl.fl 6e3pa60THbiX Cpe):lH :lKeHI,UHH Sblwe, yeM cpe):lH MY:lKYHH (COOTBeT- CTBeHHO, 14,1% H 11,9%). Ta6J1Hv,a 2-15a. Be3pa60THya: 06CJle):lOBaHHe pa60yeH CHJlbl, MaH 1992 r. (Tblc.qeJlOSeK). Bcero My",'m- leli- Bropo~ax BcenbcKoA libl ~lilibl MeCTIiOCTIi no ~alilibiM cny",6 perHCTpallHH 2229 1057 1172 no AaHHblM 06Cne~OBalilili (LFS) 2254 1126 1128 1597 657 3aperHCTpHpOBalilibie 1511 748 763 HeaaperHCTplipOBaHHble 743 378 365 - HeT AaHHblX. MECTO /Kl1TEJIbCTBA. 70% 6e3pa6oTHbiX npO:lKHSaeT B ropO):lax, H 30% - S CeJlbCKOH MeCTHOCTH. BOJlee 16% npO:lKHSaeT S MaJleHbKHX ropO):lax, HaCYHTblsalOl,UHX MeHee 20.000 :lKHTeJleH, 12,5% - ropO):lax C HaceJJ.eHHeM aT 20.000 ):10 50.000 TbIC. nOYTH 1/3 6e3pa6OTHbix npO:lKHSaeT B KPynHeHwHx ropO):lax C HaCeJleHHeM 60Jlee 100.000 YeJlOSeK. B ropO):lax (oco6eHHo B MaJleHbKHx) yposeHb 6e3pa60THYbi Bblwe. yeM B CeJlbCKOH MeCTHOCTH. HO yeM KpynHee rap on, TeM HH:lKe s HeM yposeHb 6e3pa60THYbl. B roponax C HaCeJle- HHeM MeHee 20.000 YeJlOSeK. OH COCTaSJl.fleT 17%, a B KpynHblx. C HaCeJleHHeM60Jlee 100.000 yeJlOSeK - 13,8% (Ta6mlubl 2-15s H 2-15c). B KpynHeHwHx roponax, TaKHX, KaK Bapwasa, CJlO:lKHJlC.fI caMblH HH3KUH ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THYbi. 3TO 06b.llCH.IleTC.Il HeCKOJlbKHMH npHYHHaMH. Bo-nepSbIX. so MHornx MeCTax CYl,UeCTByeT (HJlH paHbwe CYl,UeCTBOBaJlO) TOJlbKO O):lHO KpynHoe npe):lnpH.fITue. Ha KOTOPOM pa60TaeT 3HaYHTeJlbHa.ll yaCTb HaCeJleHHfI ("ropona C O):lHOH KOMnaHH- eH"). MeCTHble pblHKH He60JlbWHX ropO):lOS He 06eCneYHBalOT ):IOCTa- 3apernCTpHpOBaHHbiX 6e3pa60THbiX COCTaBHJlO 2.626 TbIC. YeJlOBeK, a no pe3YJlbTaTaM 06CJle):lOBaHHfI OHO paBH.IlJlOCb 2.467 TbIC. YeJlOBeK, H3 KOTOPblX TOJlbKO 1.766 TbIC. 6blJlH 3aperHCTpilpOSaHbi. B IJeJlOM, COrJlaCHO ):IaHHblM nepenHceH, ):IJlfl BoeBOnCTS. B KOTOPblX pacnOJlO)KeHbl KpynHble rop0):la H npOMblWJleHHble yeHTpbl (Bapwasa, KpaKos, KaTosHye. n03HaHb, BpoIJJlaIl) xapaKTepeH 60Jlee HH3KHH yposeHb 6e3pa60THYbl. npH 3TOM HaHTH YHHBepCaJlbHOe 06bflcHeHHe CTOJlb BblCOKOH CTeneHH peniOHaJlbHblX pa3JlHl.ua 111 THOH rpynne 18-19 neT ee ypoBeHb cpe.llH MY)I(4HH COCTaBJIfieT 32%, a cpe.llH )l(eHIllHH - 38%. OH BblCOK H B Cne.llYlOllleH B03paCTHoH rpynne (20-24 ro.lla) - 27%. no Mepe ysenH4eHHfI B03paCTa ypOBeHb 6e3pa6o- THUbl CHH)I(aeTCfI, H caMblH HH3KHH npHxo.llHTCfI Ha rpynny 45 neT H CTapwe (Ta6nHua 2-15d H 2-15e). Ta6nHua 2-15d. Pacnpe.lleneHHe 6e3pa6oTHblX no S03pac-ry (S %). B03paCT Lro MYlK'IHHhI $keHLQHHhI 15-17 8.4 4.8 13,2 18-19 33.9 31,7 37,8 20-24 26.9 25.4 28.6 25-29 16.6 15.0 18.9 30-34 13,4 10,1 17.6 35-44 11,1 10.3 11,9 45 H CTapwe 7,4 7.5 7,2 TpY):Iocnoc06HhlH B03paCT 13,4 12,2 14,9 ITpaMeqaaac: • %·ax It qllc.nCHIIOCTll pa60qd eWII... ltallW)" lO'paeTe. MCTO""Hlt: LI'Sw-.ocy. OBPA30BAHME. BOnbW)'lO 4aCTb 6e3pa6oTHbiX COCTaBnfllOT nHua C 6a30BbiM (HnH cpe.llHHM) npO55 ;naHHhle CJly>t<6b1 3aHRTOCTH 1 KBapTaJl 1991 1". 31,2 29,9 26,1 10,4 2,4 2 KBapTaJl 1991 1". 33,4 30,3 25,3 9,1 1.9 3 KBapTaJl 19911". 36,3 29,4 24,2 8,3 1,8 4 KBapTaJl 19911". 35,1 29,9 24,6 8,6 1,8 1 KBapTaJl 1992 1". 32,8 31,1 25,2 9,1 1,8 2 KBapTaJl 19921". 33,2 30,6 25,3 9,1 1,8 3 KBapTaJl 19921". 35,S 29,S 24,2 9,0 1,7 aaHHble o6CJle~OBaHHR (LFS), Maif 1992 1". Bcel"o 25,2 31,2 27.3 10,6 5,7 MY)f('IHHbI 26.0 29.6 26.7 10,5 7,2 lKeHLI.\HHbI 24.4 32.9 27,9 10,8 4,0 Ta6JJHua 2-15f.Pacnpe.QeJleHHe 6e3pa6oTHblX no ypOBHIO 06pa30BaHHSJ. tiCTO'lHHK Bblcwee Cpe~Hee 06L1.\ee Ba30Boe npo- Ha- npo,peccH- cpe~Hee ,peCCHOHaJlb- qaJlb- OHaJlbHO- HO-TeXHH'IeC- Hoe TeXHHqeCKOe Koe naHHble CJlY)f(6b1 3aHRTOCTH 1 KBapTaJl1991 1". 3,3 21,0 7,6 36,9 31,3 2 KBapTaJl1991 1". 3,2 23,1 7,6 34,S 31,7 3 KaapTaJl19911". 3,0 23,0 7,3 37,0 29,7 4 KBapTaJl1991 1". 3,0 22,4 7,2 37,4 30,1 1 KBapTaJl1992 1". 2,6 21,2 7.3 37.7 31.1 2 KllapTaJl 19921". 2,4 22,3 7.2 36,8 31,3 3 KBapTaJl1992 1". 2,3 21.8 7.4 38,2 30,3 06c,1e~osa!-lHe (Maii 1992) Bce 3aHRTbie 3,9 25,8 7,9 37,8 24,6 My>t<'IHHbI 3,8 20,8 3,1 46,0 26,3 lKeHLI.\HHbI 4.0 30.7 12.6 29,7 23.0 Ta6JJHua 2-15g.Pacnpe.QeJleHHe 6e3pa6oTHblX noypOBHIO 06pa30BaHHSJ 06pa30BaHHe Bcero My>t<'IHHbI lKeHLI.\HHbI Bblcwee 5,5 5,2 6,0 Cpe~Hee npociJeccHoHa,1bHo-TexHH'IecKoeI3,2 11,0 15.5 06L1.\ee cpe~Hee 16,3 12,5 17,6 6a30Boe np0ciJeccHOHaJlbHO-TeXIIH'IeCKoeI5,5 13.9 18.9 HaqaJlbHOe HJlH HenOJlHOe Ha'laJlbHOe 12.0 12,1 11,7 llo.ll'bUI.a 113 llptNU'Hbl 6e3pa6omu/.fbl OCHOBHOH npH4HHOH 6e3pa6OTHUbl HBJUIIOTCH yaonbHeHHH. B CBH3H C 3THM, npH4eM He 06H3aTenbHO B COOTBeTCTBHH C MaCCOBblMH COKpa- I,ijeHHHMH WTaTOB, 6e3pa60THblMH CTano OKono 57% HX 061J!ero KonH4eCTBa (61% MY:lK4HH H 52% :lKeHI,ijHH). YBonHBwHecH "no c06CTBeHHoMY :lKenaHHlO" COCTaBnHIOT nHWb 8% (10% MY:lK4HH H 6% :lKeHIJ!HH). Ha BepHyawHxcH B COCTaB pa604eH CHnbl npHXOnHTCH 20% 6e3pa60THbIX. npH4eM Ha :>KeHI,ijHH - 6onbwe, 4eM Ha My:lK4HH (COOT- BeTCTBeHHO 26% H 15%). 2/3 cpenH My:lK4HH 3TOH KaTeropHH COCTaB- nHIOT nocp04HO BblwenWHe Ha neHCHIO HnH nonY4aIOI,ijHe neHCHIO no HHBanHnHOCTH. 15% 6e3pa60THbiX - BnepBble BKnI04eHHbie B COCTaB pa604eH CHnbl, B T.4. 6% - BbInYCKHHKH Y4e6Hb1X 3aBeneHHH (Ta6nHua 2-16). JIHua, yaoneHHble C pa60Tbl, COCTaBnHIOT 82-85% OT 06I,ijeH 4HcneHHoCTH 6e3pa60THblX, npH4eM BepoHTHoCTb nOTepHTb pa60TY HaXOnHTCH B 06paTHoH 3aBHCHMOCTH OT nnHTenbHOCTH TpynoBoro CTa:lKa Ha nocnenHeM 25% HX npopa60TanH Ha MeCTe pa60Tbl. nocnenHeM MeCTe pa60Tbi no 22% - OT 2 no 3 neT, 13% - OT 4 1 rona, no 5 neT H npHMepHo 13% - OT 6 no 9 neT. ,[(nH nocnenHeH rpynnbl (npopa60TaBwHx Ha nocnenHeM MeCTe OT 10 no 19 neT) 3Ta 3aKOHO- MepHOCTb He BbInOnHHeTCH - Ha Hee npHxonHTcH 18% 6e3pa60THb1X. Ta6nHua 2-16. COCTaB 6e3pa60THblx: yaoneHHble, ywenWHe "no c06cTBeHHoMY :lKenaHHIO", BnepBble BCTynaIOI,ijHe B COCTaB pa604eH CHnbl H B03BpalJ!aIOIJ!HeCH B COCTaB pa604eH CHnbl (B %). KaTerOPHIl Bce :la- MY>KqHHbI 5keH~HHbI BropoAax BCeJIbCKo! HRTble MeCTHOCTH Bcem 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 YBOJIeHHble 56,6 61,1 52.1 54,7 61,1 YweAwHe "no C06CT- 7,9 9,9 5,8 8,8 5,7 BeHHOMY>KenaHHIO" flOBTOPHO BKJIlOqeHHble 20,S 15,3 25,7 23,1 14,0 B COCTaB pa60qeii CHJIbI fleHcHoHepbI 8,6 10,2 6,9 10,9 2,9 BnepBble BKJIIOQeHHble B15,O 13,7 16,4 13,4 19,2 COCTaB pa60Qeii CHJIbi BblnycKHHKH 6,2 5,0 7,3 5,6 7,7 YQe6HblX 3a- BeAeHH" HCTOlfiIHJt! LFS, Nail: 1992. llpoucxo')/(OeHue 6e3pa6omW.Jbl 114 Be3pa6omul.Ja. nepecmpouxa 31<:OHOMU1<:U U PbLH01<: mpy(Ja CaMytO MHOrOllHClleHHYIO rpynny CpenH nOTepHBllIHX pa60TY (no4TH 36%) COCTaBllHIOT paHee 3aHHTbie B npoMblllllleHHocTH, 14% - B CTpoHTellbCTBe, 16% - B ToproBlle, MeHee 5% - Ha TpaHcnopTe, MeHee 8% - B cellbCKOM X03HHCTBe H 22% - B OCTallbHblX OTpaCllHX. .£lOllH nOTepHBllIHx pa60TY B cellbCKOM X03HHCTBe, 6e3yclloBHo,3Ha4HTellbHo HH)Ke, 4eM nOllH 3aHHTblX B 3TOH oTpacllH. TeM He MeHee, OTpaClleBble nOKa3aTellH, paCC4HTaHHbie 6e3 Y4eTa 4aCTHblX cellbCKOX03HHCTBeH- HblX npennpHHTHH, BnOllHe COOTBeTCTBytOT nOlle 3aHHTbIX. 3TO nOnTBep:>tmaeT OTCYTCTBHe KopeHHblX H3MeHeHHH B CTpYKType 3aHHTOCTH, 0 KOTOPOM r'OBOPHllOCb Bblllle. HemlCHnaHHOH BblCOKOH OKa3allaCb llHllIb nOllH cpenH 6e3pa6oTHblX llHIJ, pa60TaBllIHX paHee B 4aCTHOM ceKTope - OKOllO 40% (Ta6llHya 2-17). KaKoBbl npH4HHbl :noro, onpenellHTb TpynHO: llH60 3TO 60llblllaH nOnBH)KHOCTb pa604eH CHllbl H 60llee llerKHH nopHnOK yaollbHeHHH, llH60 BpeMeHHoe OTCYT- CTBHe pa60Tbl, CBH3aHHoe C nepHonH4ecKoH cMeHoH 3aHHTHH pa3llH4- HblMH BHnaMH MellKoro 4aCTHoro npennpHHHMaTellbCTBa (HanpHMep, YllH4HOH ToproBlleH), npaKTHKyeMoH MHornMH 6e3pa60THblMH, llH60 TO, 4TO 3Ha4HTeJ1bHaH 4aCTb 6e3pa60THbiX paHee pa60Talla B npHllIen- llIHX B ynanOK KoonepaTHBax, KOTopble nO HOBOH KJlaCcHCt.lHKaUHH OTHOCJlTCJI Tenepb He K rocynapCTBeHHOMY, a K 4aCTHOMY ceKTOpy. Ta6llHIJa 2-17. Be3pa60THble no HCT04HHKaM npOHcxo)K,lleHI1J1 ft!aTerepHH "cere !lOllH ~B ~, 'BolleHo ~e3pa~oTHlla ~B ~, Bcero 1742 100,0 1033 59,3 npOMblwlIeHHoCTb 626 35,9 372 59,4 CTpoHTellbcTBo 238 13,7 154 64,7 CellbcKoe X03HHCTBO 132 7,6 91 68,9 TpaHcnopT 84 4,8 54 64,3 ToproBlIlJ 279 16,0 177 63,4 npoqee 383 22,0 185 48.3 rocYllapcTBeHHblH ceKTop 1066 61.2 615 57.7 "lIacTHblH ceKTop 676 38.8 418 61.8 IicrO'lHl!I<: LFS ... au 1992 r. llpooo.l1?Kume.l1bHocmb 6e3pa6omUl.lbl Me)K,lly naHHblMH 0 npOnOJ1)KHTellbHOCTI1 6e3pa6oTI1IJbl cllY)K6 perncTpayl1H . H nOKa3aTellJlMH, nOllY4eHHblMI1 B Xone OnpOCOB, I1MelOTCJI paCXO)K,lleHHJI. OHH 06YCllOBlleHbl pa3HHyeH B MeTOnOllornH Y4eTa: B nepBOM CllY4ae 6e3pa60TI1IJa OnpenellJleTCJI KaK nepHOn OTCYTCTBHJI pa60Tbl. a BO BTOPOM - KaK nepHOn nOI1CKOB pa60Tbl. ITo.llbUl.a 115 Cpe,nHHSI npO,nOJDKHTeJlbHOCTb 6e3pa60THYbl COCTaBJlHeT npH6J1H3HTeJlbHO 11 MecHyeB. CJle.nyeT OTMeTHTb, liTO pa3J1HlIHH B Cpe,nHeH npO,nOJl>KHTeJlbHOCTH 6e3pa60THYbi no pa3HbiM rpynnaM 6e3pa60THbIX(KJlaCCHcpHYHpOBaHHbIM, HanpHMep,no ypOBHIO 06pa30Ba- HHH) KpaHHe MaJlbl. OlleBH,nHO, OHa npaKTHlieCKH He 3aBHCHT HH OT nOJla, HH OT ypOBHH 06pa30BaHHH. HH OT CTa>Ka pa60TbI. npO,nOJl>KHTeJlbHOCTb 6e3pa6OTHYbi CBH3aHa C BepOSITHOCTblO nOTepH pa6OTbl, 0 KOTOPOH roBOPHJlOCb Bblwe. 25% 6e3pa60THbiX He HMeJlH pa60Tbi 60Jlee 1 ro,na. 35% (caMaSi MHorollHCJleHHaH rpynna) - OT 7 MecHyeB ,no 1 ro,na, 20% - OT 4 ,no 6 MecSlyeB. H JlHWb 20% - MeHee 3 MecSlueB. 06ecnoKoeHHoCTb Bbl3b1BaeT TO 06CTOSlTeJlbCTBO, lITO Ha HallaJlO 1993 r. 60% 6e3pa60THb1X YTpaTHJlO npaBo Ha nOJlyqeHHe noc06HH. 3TO elJ.le pa3 no,nllepKHBaeT npOTHBopellHBoCTb yeneH nOJlHTHKH coyHaJlbHoro 06ecnelleHHSI; C O,nHOH CTOPOHbl. 60Jlee npe,nnoliTHTenbHblM npe,nCTaBJlSleTCH COKpalJ.leHHe CPOKOB BbmJlaTbI noc06HH, nOCKOJlbKY 3TO C03,naeT CTHMYJlbI K aKTHBHblM nOHCKaM pa60TbI; C ,npyrOH CTOPOHbl, HHTepecbl nOMep>KaHHSI :lKM3HeHHOro ypOBHH HKeCTKHX npaBMJI npe,noCTaeJleHHH noco6HH npHBeJlO K pe3KoMY CH!'1>KeHHIO ,nOJlH nOJlyqalOlJ.lHX noc06He B 061J.leH lIHCJleHHOCTH 6e3pa6OTHblx. OHa ynaJla C 79% B KOHye 1991 r. ,no 45,5% B ceHTH6pe 1993 r., liTO npH6J1H3HTeJlbHO COOTBeTCTByeT ,noJle He HMelOlJ.lHX pa60Tb1 60Jlee 12 MecHyeB 21• 3aKJIlOQeHHe B ,naHHoH rJlaBe HCCJle,nOBaJlaCb ,nHHaMHKa 6e3pa60THYbl. CJlO>KHBWaSiCH B xo,ne pa3BHTHH ,nBYX ceKTopoB, no,nllHHSllOlJ.lerocR npOTHBOnOJlO>KHbIM TeH,neHYHRM; (1) npHxo,nRlJ.lero B yna,noK rocy,napCTBeHHoro H (2) pacTYlJ.lero lIaCTHoro. He HrnopHpySI POJIH CTpYKTypHblX cpaKTopoB, B 27. KaK Y>Ke ynoMHHaJlOCb, no ,naHHbIM onpocoB pa60lleH CHJlbl, B xo,ne KOTOPblX YlIHTbIBaJlHCb JlHWb JlHya, aKTHBHO HIJ.lYlJ.lHe pa6OTY, ,nO!lSl ,n!lHTeJlbHO He HMelOlJ.lHX pa60Tbi ropa3,n0 MeHbwe - OKOJlO 25%. 3TO roBOPHT 0 TOM, liTO 3HallHTeJlbHOe KOJlHlIeCTBO 3apernCTpHpo- BaHHblX 6e3pa60THblX He HlJ.leT pa60TY, H cYlJ.lecTBeHHaH lIaCTb He3aperncTpHpoBaHHblx aKTHBHO HryeT ee. HO noc06HH He nOJlYlIaeT. 116 Beapa6omuLta, nepecmpoi1Ka 3KOHOMUKU U P'blHOK mpyoa nepByro 04epe~b, cna60H Me*perHOHanbHOH M06HnbHOCTH pa604eH CHnbl, Mbl YTBep:>K,D.aeM, 4TO ~eHCTBHe 3THX TeH~eH!!HH Bp5I~ nH CMO*eT 06eCne4HTb COKpall!eHHe 6e3pa6OTH!!b1 B KpaTKOCp04HOM nnaHe. Jla*e B 1992-93 r., Kor~a TeMnbl pOCTa 3KOHOMHKH 6blnH nonO*HTenbHblMH, nOKa3aTenH Tpy~oyCTpoHcTBa 6e3pa60THblX, oTpa*alOll!He npoyecc C03~aHH5I HOBblX pa604Hx MeCT, 6blm{ KpaHHe HH3KHMH, H ~on5I nHY, ~nHTenbHO He HMelOll!HX pa60Tbl, B COCTaBe 6e3pa60THbiX HeYKnOHHO ysenH4HBanaCb. B TO *e BpeMR, rocy~ap­ CTBeHHblH ceKTOp. HeCMOTpR Ha npOHCXO~Rll!He B HeM nonO*HTenbHble H3MeHeHHH, He B COCTOHHHH C03~aTb ycnoBHH ~nR CYlJ!eCTBeHHoro paClllHpeHHH 3aHHTOCTH Ha YCTOH4HBOH OCHOBe. I1CXO~HbIM MeTO~OnOrH4eCKHM npHHYHnOM aHanH3a 6e3pa6o- THlJbl cnY*HT Bbl~eneHHe ~ByX KpynHblx ceKTopOB - rocy~apcTBeHHoro H 4aCTHoro. Ho 3TO He no~pa3yMeBaeT O~HOpO~HOCTH Ka:>K,D.oro H3 HHX. Heo~H03Ha4HoCTb B pa3BHTHH rocy~apCTBeHHoro ceKTopa 110HHMaeTCR B ~aHHOH rnaBe KaK Me*OTpacneBble H BpeMeHHble pa3m{4HR. B ~eHCTBHTenbHOCTH pa3BHTHe rocy~apcTBeHHblX npe~npHRTHH. HapH~y C 4JaKTopaMH OTpacneBoro xapaKTepa (OTHOCHTenbHble !!eHbl, CTeneHb 3aBHCHMOCTH OT C3B, BnHRHHe HMnopTHOH KOHKypeH!!HH), onpe~enR­ eTCH orpaHH4eHHRMH nHKBH~HOCTH. a TaK*e BpeMeHHblM roPH30HTOM H !!enHMH npe~npHHTHH. nOcne~HHe B pelllalOl!!eH CTeneml 3aBHCHT OT HblHelllHero HnH O*H~aeMoro xapaKTepa c06CTBeHHOCTH H KOHTponR H TeM caMblM OT BpeMeHHoro ropH30HTa npHHRTHH pellleHHH. lJenb MaKCHMH3a!!HH ~OXO~OB pa60THHKOB, nyCTb ~a*e !!eHOH COKpal!!eHHR 3aHHTOCTH H 061>eMa npOH3BO~CTBa, KaK 3TO npe~CKa3blBaeT Mo~enb caMoynpaBneHHH pa604HX, He COOTBeTCTByeT nOBe~eHHIO nonbCKHX npe~npHRTHH. OHH, HanpOTHB, OT~aIOT npHopHTeT nOMep*aHHIO ypOBHR 3aHHTOCTH. PeaKlJHH TaKHX qmpM Ha H3MeHem·m OTHOCHTenb- HblX lJeH CXO~Ha C peaKlJHei1 npe~npHRTHi1, CTaBRl!!HX 3a~a4y MaKCHMH3aYHH npH6blnH. Cne~OBaTenbHO. HxnOBe~eHHe onpe~enReTCH TeM, HaCKonbKO ~aneKO Bnepe~ 3arnH~blBalOT ee pa60THHKH, a TaK*e O*H~aeMbIM nono*eHHeM 4JHPMbl H BnHRHHeM HHcai1~epOB. 113MeHeHHH COOTBeTCTBYIOl!!HX nOKa3aTenei1 BO BpeMeHH H B pa3pe3e OTpacneH CBH~eTenbcTByIOT 0 pelllalOlJ!ei1 ponH B nonHTHKe onnaThl Tpy~a 4JaKTopa BpeMeHHblX O*H~aHHH (~a*e 60nbllleH, 4eM ponb rocy~ap­ CTBeHHoro perynHpoBaHHH 3apa60THOH nnaTbl). l..JTO KacaeTCH 4aCTHoro ceKTopa, TO OCHOBHoe BHHMaHHe npH ero H3Y4eHHH y~en5IeTCH Ka4eCTBeHHblM xapaKTepHCTHKaM pa604HX MeCT, B TOM 4Hcne HX pa3nH4HRM no OTpacnRM H H3MeHeHHHM BO BpeMeHH. Bo-nepBblX, el!!e ~o Ha4ana pe4JopM B nonbille CYl!!eCTBOBan KpynHblH 4aCTHblH ceKTOp, ~a*e BHe c4Jepbl cenbCKoro X03RHCTBa. llO.llbUla 117 BO-BTOPbIX. pe3KHH pOCT 3aHHTOCTH B lJaCTHOM CeKTOpe Ha nepBOM 3Tane 061>RCHReTCR CKOpee BCerO a,llanTaUHeH pa3MepOB npe,llnpHHTHH B OTpaCJIRX C He6011bllIHMH pa3MepaMH nepBOHalJallbHO aBaHCHpOBaH- HOrO KanHTalla. HH3KHMH H3,1lep)l(KaMH npOH3BO,llCTBa H HeBblCOKHMH Tpe60BaHHRMH K ypOBHIO KBaJIH!j>HKaUHH pa6OTHHKOB. TaKHX, KaK CTpOHTeJIbCTBO H TOprOBJUI. Ha C03,1laHHblX TaM pa60lJHX MeCTax OnJIaTa TpY,Ila. KaK npaBHJIO, HH3KaR, a YCJIOBHR TPY,Ila nllOXHe. 3THM H 061>RCHReTCR. qTO 6011bllIHHCTBO pa60THHKOB. KaK BblRCHHJIOCb B XO,lle 06CJIe,llOBaHHH. npe,llnOlJHTaeT pa60TaTb B rOCY,IlapCTBeHHOM ceKTope H Bce CHJIbHee npOTHBHTCR npHBaTH3aUHH. BOJIee Toro, H3MeHeHHe !j>OPMbl co6CTBeHHOCTH ,IlalleKO He 06R3aTeJIbHO COnpOBO)l(- ,IlaeTCR C03,1laHHeM HOBblX pa60lJHX MeCT. 3,1leCb ,IlOKa3aHO, qTO nOJIbllIa Y)I(e BCTynHlla B 3TY !j>a3Y. B-TpeTbHX, B o6pa6aTblBalOIJ!eH npOMblllI- JIeHHOCTH KpynHble H Cpe,llHHe npe,llnpHRTHR He C03,1laBaJIHCb, a C03,1laBaJIHCb JIHllIb Mallble. OCHOBHaR npHlJHHa 3Toro - HeXBaTKa CCY,IlHOro, a TaK)I(e lJeJIOBelJeCKOrO KanHTaJIa. n03TOMY H 6JIH)I(aHllIHe nepcneKTHBbl lJHCTOro C03,1laHHR pa60lJHX MeCT B lJaCTHOM ceKTope npe,llCTaBJIRIOTCR He oco6eHHO 611aronpHRTHbIMH. B CBR3H C HaJIHlJHeM Me)l(- H BHYTpHOTpaClleBblX pa3JIHlJHH BCTaeT Bonpoc 0 !j>aKTopax, onpe,lleJIRlOlJ!HX MaKp03KOHOMHlJeCKYIO ,IlHHaMHKY 6e3pa6oTHUbl. OHa B03HHKJIa He B npouecce "C03H,IlaTeJIbHO- ro pa3PYllIeHHR", KOTOPblH npe,llnOJIaraeT CYIJ!eCTBOBaHHe 6e3pa6oTH- Ubi KaK Heo6xo,llHMorO, XOTfl H 6011e3HeHHoro, YCJIOBHfl H cpe,llCTBa 06eCnelJeHHfl 3KOHOMHlJeCKOrO pOCTa. Be,llb 3HalJHTeJIbHafl lJaCTb CllOR 6e3pa6oTHbiX nORBHllaCb B pe3YllbTaTe rJIy6oKoro KpH3Hca 1990-91 IT. Ho lJepe3 HeKoTopoe BpeMR BCTynHllo B CHllY H "c03H,IlaTeJIbHOe pa3pYllIeHHe", lJeM, OlJeBH,IlHO, H 061>flCHReTcR cYIJ!eCTBoBaHHe 6e3pa6oTHUbi B pacTYllleH 3KOHOMHKe B 1992-93 rr. BnOJIHe BepoRTHo, qTO eCJIH 3Ta TeH,IleHUHR 3aKpenHTCR, TO 6e3pa6oTHua 6Y,IleT paCTH H Bnpe,llb. O,llHaKO, KaK nOKa3aJIH nOCJIe,llHHe C06bITHR, nOHHMaHHe nora 3aCTaBJIReT HHCaH,IlepOB OKa3bIBaTb Bce 60JIee CHJIbHOe ,IlaBJIeHHe Ha npaBHTellbCTBo, BblHY)I(JlaR ero OTKJIa,llblJilaTb npOBe,lleHHe npHBaTH3a- UHH H H3MeHeHHe ee xapaKTepa KaK no nOJIHTHlJeCKHM MOTHBaM, TaK H H3 onaceHHR cnpoBoUHpoBaTb POCT 61O,Il)l(eTHbiX paCXO,llOB. YCHllHBa- IOTCR Tpe60BaHHfl nOMep)l(aHHfl 3aHRTOCTH B rOCY,IlapCTBeHHOM ceKTope, KOTOPblM npaBHTellbCTBO 3alJaCTYIO H,IleT HaBCTpelJY. 3TO THnHlJHblH npHMep HenOCJIe,llOBaTeJIbHOCTH 3KOHOMHlJeCKOH nOJIHTHKH. 3TO nO,llpa3YMeBaeT He oClla611eHHe 61O,Il)l(eTHblX orpaHHlJeHHH, a npH3HaHHe !j>aKTHlJeCKOrO YCHJIeHHR POJIH HHcaH,IlepOB Ha rocY,Ilap- CTBeHHblX npe,llnpHflTHRX. MHorHe npe,llnpHRTHR BblnOJIHRIOT HX 118 Be3pa6omUl,.Ja, nepecmp0u''Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U PblHO'K mpyaa Tpe6oBaHH$l28. BMeCTe C TeM, nOCJ1enCTBH$I 3TOrO $IBJ1eHH$I no CHX nop geJ1HKOM He BbI$lCHeHbl. B geJ10M rocynapCTBeHHble npennpH$lTH$I HaXOn$lTC$I B T$I)I(eJ10M n0J10)l(eHHH. B 1993 r. 6oJ1ee 40% HX 6blJ1H y6bIT04HbIMH, npH4eM pa3Mepbl y6blTKOB npeSblWaJ1H pa3Mepbl npH6blJ1eH peHTa6eJ1bHblX npennpH$lTHH. )la)l(e npH y J1Y4weHHH 061l!eH cHTya!JHH B 3KOHOMHKe S 1992-93 IT. o6beM npoH3BOnCTsa S rocynap- CTseHHOM ceKTope CTa6HJ1H3HpOBaJ1C$I Ha ypoBHe 30% OT nope$opMeH- Horo. B KOHe4HOM C4eTe, npoMenJ1eHHe C npoBeneHHeM npHBaTH3agHH MO)l(eT nOBJ1e4b 3a C060H BblCOKHe aJ1bTepHaTHSHble H3nep)l(KH. IIpHJIO)l(eHHe CTPYKTypa 6e3pa6oTHUbI: aHaJIH3 HepaOHOMepHOCTH MH,t:leIKHO COKpaTHTb 6e:lpa60TH~Y :la C'IeT nOBblweHHR M06HnbHOCTH paoo'leii CHnbl Me>KtO' pernOHaMH. OTpaCllRMH H BHAaMH :laHsrmH. IIepBblH HH,t:leKC. MM (CM. BCTaBKY 2-2). nOKa3b1BaeT ypOBHH 6e::lpa60TH~bI B pacnpe,t:leneHHH no pemoHaM, BH,t:laM :laHRTHH H no nony. OH nO:lBOnlleT nony'lHTb npe,t:lCTaaneHHe 0 npellJlO>KeHHH pa60'leii CHJlbI, HO He ,t:laeT HHopMa~HH 0 COOTHoweHHH cnpoca H npe,t:lJlO>KeHHIl. HHllelK(!HHe pa60'leH CHnbl. T.I<. yqHTblBaeT H '1HcnO 6e:lpa60THblx, H KOJlH'IeCTBO BalKHO HCnOJlb30BaTb npH H:lY'IeHHH HepaBHoMepHocTH B pacnpelleJleHHH CooTHoweHHii cnpoca H npej:lJl0>KeHHR no pen-IOHaM, nocKonbKY HH0pMa~HR 0 BaKaHCHRx He j:leTaJlH:lHpOBaHa HH no ypOBHIO KBaJlHHKa~HH. HH no nony H T.n. II03TOMY :lj:leCb If npHBOj:lRTCR 06a BHj:la nOKa:laTeJleH. HH>KeCnej:lYIO~He ~HPbl n03BonRIOT onpellenHTb, B KaKOH CTeneHH 6e3pa60TH~a 06YCJlOBJleHa HepaBHOMepHOCTblO B ee pa:lnH'IHbIX npORBneHHRX. B03paCmHOu, cocma(J 6e3pa6omHbLX HeCOOTBeTCTBHR MelKJl.Y cnpOCOM H npej:lnO>KeHHeM. CBR3aHHble C BO:lpaCTOM. npeOj:lOneTb TPYj:lHO, nOCIaIKe Ha 161.. KpoMe TOro, ecnH B Mae 1992 r. CTeneHb HeCOOTBeTCTBHR 6b1na Bblwe j:lnR >KeH~HH. TO BnOCJlej:lCTBIUI - j:lnA MY>K'IHH. 28. nonpo6HblH aHaJ1H3 npHcnoco6J1eHH$I KpynHblX rocynapcTBeH- HblX npennpH$lTHH K TaKOH 06CTaHOSKe npHBOnHTC$I B Pinto, Belka and Krajewsky (1993). llO/lbWa 119 BCTaBKa 2-2. HCTO'lHHKH HH4>OPMat.1HH H MeTOAonornll. (i) IICTO'lHIIKH Hu¢opMaU;IIH. npH aHanH3e HepaBHOMepHOCTH B nonbwe Hcnonb30BanOCb ABa HCTO'lHHKa HH4>0pMallHH: (1) 06cneAoBaHHII pa60'leH CHnbl (LFS). KOTopble. Ha'lHHaR C Mall 1992 r., npoBoARTCII Ka?KAbie 3 MeClIlIa; 3Ta pa60Ta 6a3HPyeTcR Ha AaHHblX nepenHceii. ony6nHKoBaHHblx B Mae H B aBrycTe 1992 r.; (2) e:>KeMecll'lHble AaHHble cnY:>K6 3aHIITOCTH 0 3apernCTpHpOBaHHblX 6e3pa60THbix H 0 HanH'IHH BaKaHcHH, nonyqeHHble OT llenapTaMeHTa 3aHRTOCTH MHHHCTep- CTBa TPYAa H COlIHanbHOH nonHTHKH. HH4>opMaliHII. c06paHHaR cnY:>K6aMH 3aHRTOCTH, HecKonbKo orpaHH'IeHHa. OHa COAep:>KHT e:>KeMeCR'IHble BpeMeHHble pRAbi nOKa3aTeneH 6e3pa60THlIbi H HanH'IHR Bal(aHCHii B pernOHanbHOM pa3pe3e. OAHaKO 3TH 01leHI(H CMe~eHbI: ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THlIbi B HHX 3aBbiweH, a 1(0nH'IeCTBO BaKaHCHH - 3aHH:>KeHO. 3TO npoHcxoAHT H3-3a He3aHHTepe- COBaHHOCTH npeAnpHRTHii npeAOCTaBnRTb B cnY:>K6b1 3aHRTOCTH HH4>oPMaliHIO o HanH'IHH Bal(aHCHH; 3aKOH 0 3aHRTOCTH. 06R3b1BalO~HH HX K 3TOMY. He BbinOnHlleTCII. A B 0606~eCTBneHHoM ceI0pMaU;HIO. WTaTbi cOKpa~aIOTclI. KpoMe TOro. 3Ha'lHTenbHall 'IaCTb 3KOHOMH'IecKoii llellTenbHOCTH CoCpellOTO'leHa B TeHeBoii 3KOHOMHKe H CTaTHCTHqeCJ(J{ He yqHTblBaeTCR; 3aHIITbie B 3TOH c4>epe o4>HlIHanbHO CqHTaIOT- CII 6e3pa60THblMH. no HeKOTOpblM 01leHl(aM. Ha qepHOM pblHKe 3aHRTO 30r. 3apernCTpHpOBaHHblX 6e3pa60THblX; B cnY:>K6b1 3aHRTOCTH co06~aeTCII HH4>OPMaliHII nHWb 0 20r. BaKaHCHH. (ii) MeTO.!lOJIOfHlI: nOKa3aTeJIH HepallHOMepHOCTH B AaHHOH CTaTbe HCnOnb3YIOTCII }:VIa HH,!leJ(Ca HepaBHOMepHOCTH: MM HMM'(CM. "Mismatch: A Framework for Thought"deR.Jackman,R.Layard. S.Savouri, in Mismatch and Labor Mobility, F.P.Padoa- Shioppa. ed ... 1991), MM onpeJlenlleTCR cneAylO~HM 06pa30M: MM" 1/2 x VAR (411) MM' Y'IHTblBaeT Kal( 'IHCnO 6e3pa60THbiX. Tal( H Bal(aHCHH: MM' " 2 x (1 - SUM(N!N x (II/U - ';h·)I'~]. rAe II - ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THU;bI (UIM v- ypOBeHb Bal(aHCHH (VIIV) II, - ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THlIbi no i l(aTeropHH (pernOH. BHA 3aHRTHH H T.n.) Vi - ypOBeHb Bal(aHCHH no i KaTeropHH (perHOH. BHA 3aHRTHH H T,n.) N - pa60'laR CHna (H3 o6~eii 'IHC,'1eHHOCTH HaceneHHR) ~ - pa6o'lall CHna no AaHHoMY BHIlY JaHflTHH. B JlaHHOM perHoHe H T.n, 120 Be3pa6omul.Ia, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa Ta6JIHua 2-18. HHneKc HepaBHoMepHoCTH 6e3pa60THUbi no B03pacry. llepuod Bcezo MYJlNUHbl /f(eHU/UHbl Mali 1992 r. 11,69 12,10 21,70 AaryCT 1992 r. 15.58 16.33 15,58 HOR6pb 1992 r. 14,91 16.12 14.92 4leBpanb 1993 r. 15,41 16,58 14,96 HeTO .... "": Labor F""", Survey, editi"", f()t May 1992, Augus' 1992. N""""""r 1992, February 1993. Ta6JIHua 2-19. HHneKC HepaBHOMepHOCTH pacnpeneJIeHHfI 6e3pa60TH- Ubi B roponax. Bcero Maii 1992 r. 0,45 0,57 0,38 ABryCT 1992 r. 0,47 0,79 0,30 HOR6pb 1992 r. 0,31 0,13 0,23 4leBpanb 1993 r. 0,47 1,12 0,15 HeTO'IHJU<: Labor F""", SIltYC)', edi,i""" for May 1992, Augus' 1992, N""""""r 1992, Fcbf\lary 1993. Be3pa6omul.Ia (J ZOpOOOX no AaHHblM Ta6nHqbl 2-19. no ropOAaM 6eapa60THqa pacnpeAenReTcR cpaBHHTenbHo paBHoMepHo. Ypo(JeHb 06pa30(JaHUR U np0rPeCCUOHa.flbHaR CmpYKmypa CornacHO AaHHblM Ta6nHqbl 2-20, aa CqeT peeccHoHanbHoH CTP- Bcero MY:IKqHHbI )KeHutHHbI YKTyPbl MaH 1992 r. 15,30 3,02 2,29 4,74 ABryCT 1992 r. 14,58 2,59 2,15 3,82 HOR6pb 1992 r. 14,63 2,88 2,36 4,70 4lespanb 1993 r. 15,46 3,93 3,76 5,47 HCTo'UlHX: Labor F""", SIltYC)', edi.i""" for May 1992, August 1992, November 1992, Febf\lary 1993. flO.llbUla 121 Ta6J1Hua 2-21. MHAeKc HepaBHOMepHOCTH no OTpaCfl.RM (8 X), nepHOj:l HepaBHoMepHoCTh no OTpaCJlRM Man 1992 r. 11,60 ABryCT 1992 r. 11.90 HOR6ph 1992 r. 12,40 CIIeBpaJih 1993 r. 12.33 HCTO'lHH'" Labor Fo"", Suzvey, editi_ for May 1992, A_I 1992, November 1992, February 1993. Hepa8HOMepHocmb no OmpaC.IlFlM npej:lCTaBJIReTCR, 'ITO nOKa3aTeJlH HepaBHOMepHOCTH pacnpOCTpaHeHHII 6e3pa60TH~hI. COrJlaCHO Ta6J1H~e 2-21. CTa6HJlH3HpOBaJlHCh Ha ypoBHe 11-12r.. J!UHaMW(Q peZUOHQ.fl'bH'btX nOKa3ame.lleU Hecoom8emcm8uFl B Ta6J1H~e 2-22 nOKa3aHhI H3MeHeHHR pernOHaJlhHblX nOKa3aTeJlen HeCOOTBeTCTBHR MM. TalC H HtmeKCOB M M'. 3acnY>KHBaeT DO BpeMeHH C HCnOJlh30BaHHeM KaK HHj:leKCOB BHHMaHHR. 'ITO paaMaX ~ HHAeKCa MM- 3Ra'lHTe1lhH0 lIhIWe, qeM HHAeKCa MM KpoMe TOrO. 3RaqeHHe HHAeKCa MM \1OCTORHHO YMeHbI.l.IaeTCR, a 3RaqeHHe HHAeKCa MM' B HoR6pe 1992 r. (B KOH~e 06CJlej:lOBaHHR) BepHYJlOCh K ypOBHIO RHBapR 1992 r. AMnJlHTYj:la KOJle6aHHH HHAeKca M M' CBHj:leTeJlbCTIiYeT 0 CHJlbHOM BJIHRHHH pernOHaJIb- HbiX nOKa3aTeJleH HeCOOTBeTCTBHR Ha ypOBeHh 6e3pa60TH~bI. Ta6J1HU3 2-22. PernOHanbHble HHAeKCbl HeCOOTBeTCTBH.R, (8 X). 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D.C. 3 /fJICOH X3M, RH C6ei1Hap u K3mpUH Teppe/UZ nOKa3aTeJJM pblHKa TpY,Qa '"IewcKoH Pecny6nMKM ('"IP) YHMKanbHbl ,QnH nepeXOJlHblX 3KOHOMHK UeHTpanbHOH M BOCTOlJHOH EBpOnbl. flHWb B ,QByx CTpaHaX MHpa ypOBeHb 6e3pa60TMUbi HM)lCe, lJeM B '"IP. 3apa60T- HaH nnaTa HaXO,QHTCH Ha HH3KOM H KOHKypeHTocnoc06HOM ypOBHe, a HaceneHMe cnOKOHHO BocnpHHMMaeT HcnblTaHMH H THrOTbl nepeXO,QHoro nepHO,Qa OT KOMaH,QHOH 3KOHOMMKM K 3KOHOMMKe, OCHOBaHHOH Ha lJaCTHOM npe,QnpHHMMaTeJJbCTBe. PblHOK TpY,Qa B CnOBaUKOH Pecny6- nMKe (CP), KOTOPblH ,QO 1991 r. 6blJl npaKTMlJeCKM HeOTnMlJMM OT lJeWCKOro, C Tex nop, HanpOTMB, pa3BHBancH B cYl,I!eCTBeHHo MHOM HanpaBJ1eHHH M TaM CTanM npOHBJ1HTbCH np06neMbl, CXO)ICMe C CYl,I!eCTBYJOl,ijMMH Ha pblHKax TPY,Qa ,QPyrMX nepeXO,QHblX 3KOHOMMK. YpOBeHb 6e3pa60TMUbI B CnOBaKMM YSeJJMlJMnCH npaKTMlJeCKM C HynH ,QO JlBY3HalJHbiX UHcJt B Y3KOM HHTepBaJIe 2 000-4 000 KpOH B MeCJtu. 3Ta CHCTeMa 6blJIa cnoco6Ha ¢YHKUHOHHpoBaTb nOTOMY, liTO BJIaCTH coxpaHJtJIH :lKeCTKHA KOHTPOJIb KaK 3a a6COJIIOT- HblM, TaK H 3a OTHOCHTeJ1bHbIM ypOBHeM 3apa6oTHoA nJIaTbl, a pa60THHKH TepneJ1H CHCTeMY, nOCKOJIbKY OHa Ka3aJIaCb 3r'aJIHTapHOA, pacnpOCTpaHJtJIaCb H KOHTPOJIHpOBaJIaCb npO¢COI03aMH. HeCMOTpJt Ha TO, liTO 3TH lIaCTO npHBO.llHMble xapaKTepHCTHKH COUHaJIHCTHlIeCKOr'O pblHKa Tpy,na Ka:lKYTCJt B ueJIOM BepHbIMH, H3yqeHHe COOTBeTCTB)'JO'llHX ,naHHbIx, npOBe,neHHoe HaMH, n03BOJIJteT c,neJIaTb BbIBO,n, liTO pOJIb nO.llo6HbIX PblHOllHbIX ¢aKTOpOB H CTeneHb pa3JIHlIHA B 3apa6OTHoA nJIaTe MOr'JIH He,nooueHHBaTbCJt. Bo-nepBblX, OTMeTHM, liTO HeCMOTpJt Ha TO, liTO CTaBKH 3apa6OTHOH nJIaTbl, YCTaHOBJIeHHble B KHme YHU¢UIJUpo(JaHHblX Koo08, OTpa:lKaJIH npHopH- TeTTJt:lKeJIoA npOMbIWJIeHHOCTH, OHH OCHOBblBaJIHCb Ha TaKHX KpHTepH- JtX, KaK TJt:lKeCTb ¢H3HlIeCKOr'O TPy,na, 06pa30BaHHe, npo¢eCCHJt H onblT. TaKHM 06pa30M, CTpYKTypa 3apa6oTHoA nJIaTbI, KpOMe Toro, qTO OTpa:lKaJIa npHopHTeT TJt:lKeJIoA npOMblWJIeHHOCTH, YlIHTblBaJIa H CTaH,napTHble ¢aKTOpbl pblHKa Tpy,na, TaKHe KaK KOMneHcaUHOHHble pa3JIHlIHJt B 3apa60THOH nJIaTe (TJt)f{eCTb Tpy,na), H xapaKTepHCTHKH lIeJIOBelleCKOr'O KanHTaJIa (06pa30BaHHe, npo¢eCCHJt H onbIT). CJIe,nOBa- TeJIbHO, OTJIHlIHTeJIbHOA lIepTOH CHCTeMbl 6blJI, nO-BH,nHMOMY, npe)f{,l:le Bcer'O ueHTpaJIH30BaHHbiA xapaKTep npouecca YCTaHOBJIeHHJt 3apa60T- HoA nJIaTbl. BBn, 3aHHTOCTb If npOlf3BO.luneJlbHOCTb Tpy.n.a Heo6xo,nHMO no,nllepKHYTb, liTO npH H3yqeHHH ,naHHblX 0 npOH3BO.llCTBe H 3aHJtTOCTH Tpy,nHO npHi1TH K lIeTKHM 3aKJIIOlIeHHJtM 06 HX pa3BHTHH BO BpeMeHH, nOCKOJIbKY CTaTHCTHlIeCKHe ynpaBJIeHHJt ,nByx pecny6JIHK HcnblTblBaJIH 3aTpy,nHeHHJt npH c60pe nOJIHblX .IlaHHblX 0 pOCTe lIaCTHOr'O ceKTopa. TeM He MeHee, B He.llaBHO ony6JIHKOBaHHbiX pJt,nax .IlaHHblX 3a 1990-1993 IT. Y)f{e 3aMeTHbi cepbe3Hbie YCHJIHJt BHeCTH nonpaBKH Ha pOCT 3TOr'O ceKTopa. t[ewCKWl Pecny6.m.lKa u C.Il08aKWl 127 Ta6J1Hlla 3-1. rO):(OBble TeMTIbl H3MeHeHHH OCHOBHblX M3KP03KOHOMH- lIeCKHX nOK333TeJIeH (6 npol.jeHmax) lloKa3aTenb 1985-89' 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 PeanbHblH BBll qp' 2,3 4,5 -1,2 -14,1 -7,1 -0,9 CP' 2,4 1,1 -2,5 -14,0 -7,0 -4,7 llpoMblwneHHoe npoH3Bo,ACTBo qp' 2,1 1,5 -3,5 -24,4 -13,7 -7,4 CPA 2,1 -1.1 -4,1 -25,4 -14,4 -18,2 HH,AeKC nOTpe6HTenbcKHx "eH qp' 0,6 1,5 9,6 56,7 11,1 20,8 cpa 0,2 1,3 10,4 61,2 10,0 25,6 HH,AeKC "eH npoH3Bo,AHTeneii qp' 0,1 0.1 4.3 70,4 9,9 13,4 cpa -0.7 -2,7 4,8 68,9 5,3 16,6 CpeAHSlR 3apa6oTHaR nnaTa qp. 2,0 2,2 3,5 16,7 23,1 20,3 CPC 2,1 2,3 4.1 16,5 20,6 24,0 ,D:eHellCHbie AOXO,AbI qp" 3,5 4,1 8,3 17,7 17.7 28,2 cpa 4,0 3,3 7,0 15,2 15,1 17,3 Cpe,AHRR 3aHRTOCTb qp. 0,6 0,1 -0,1 -5,4 -2,6 -0,1 Cpo 0,9 -0,2 -0,8 -7,9 -5,3 llPOH3BOAHTenbHOCTb TpYAa qp' 2,2 2,2 -0,3 -14,5 -2,3 -1,4 Cpo 1,9 -0,2 -O,B -14,1 -3,2 -11,6 llPOH3BO,AHTenbHOCTb TpY,Aa, nO'IaCOBaR qP'" 3,4 3,7 1,7 -10,2 -B,5 CP' 3,4 l,B 1,4 YpoBeHb 6e3pa6oTH"bI qp4> O,B 4,1 2,6 3,5 CP' 1,5 11,B 10,3 14,4 berO)JlfHX; YopaBlleHHe. a. Cpe,AHero,AOBbie TeMnbl H3MeHeHHii. 6. BBll paCC'IHTaH B nOCTORHHblX "eHax RHBapR 1984 r. ,D:aHHble aa 1992-1993 IT. npeABapHTenbHble. HHAeKC 3a 1993 r. paCC'IHTaH KaK OTHoweHHe AaHHblX aa III KB. 1993 r. K ,AaHHblM 3a III KB. 1992 r. HCTO'lHHK: qCE 1993 r., CTp. 42. Prehled ukazatelu ekanomickeho a socialniho rozvoje Ceske Republiky (Survey ofIndicators ofEconomic and Social Development in Czech Republic) III KB. 1993 r., '1aCTb I. 128 Be3pa6omuija, nepecmpoiiKa 3KOHOMUKU U pbiHOK mpyoa II. BBn 1984 r. ,I:(aHHble aa 1992-1993 IT. paCC'IHTaH II nOCTO.llHHblX LleHax .IIHBapR npe~BapHTeJIbHble. l:iHAeKc aa 1993 r. paCC'IHTaH KaK OTHoweHHe AaHHblX aa III KB. 1993 r. K ~aHHblM aa III KB. 1992 r. ,I:(aHHble aa 1993 r. OLleHO'lHble. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE 1993 r., CTp. 56. Hospodarske noviny, 2,3 !jleBpaml 1994 r. r. l:iHAeKcbl paCC'IHTaHbl Ha OCHOBe nOCTORHHblX LleH, AeHCTB)'lO~HX B COOTBeTCTII)'lO- ~HH nepHO~: AaHHble aa 1991 r. no npeAnpH.IITH.IIM C '1HCJIOM aaHRTblX 60JIee 100 '1eJlOBeK; AaHHble aa 1992 r. - no npe~npHATHAM C '1HCJlOM aaHATblX 60Jlee 25 '1eJlOlleK. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE 1993 r., CTp. 50. PreMed ukazatelu ekonomickeho a socialniho rOZl/oje Ceske Republiky (Survey of lndicators of Economic and Social Developmenl in Czech Republic 11 I KII. 1993 r., '1aCTb II. A. To )l(e, 'ITO H npHMe'laHHe r. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE 1993 r., CTp. 64. Bulletin Siovenskeho Statislickeho Uradu 9/93, CTp. 7. e. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE 1993 r., CTp. 42. PreMed ukazatelu ekonomickeho a sociainiho rOZl/oje Ceske Repub/iky (Survey of Indicators of Economic and Social Development in Czech Republic III KB. 1993 r., '1aCTb VII. Czech Statistical Office - Indexy spotrebitelskych cen a ziyotnich nakladu, 1/94. )1(. ,I:(aHHble aa 1993 r. - OLleHO'lHble. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE, 1993 r .. CTp. 56. Hospodarske noviny. 2,3 !jleBPaJI.II 1994 r. a. l:iH,Il;eKC 3a 1993 r. paCC'lHTaH KaK OTHoweHHe AaHHblX aa III KB. 1993 r. K AaHHblM 3a III KB. 1992 r. l:iCTO'lHHK: CTaTHCTH'IeCKHH EIOJIJleTeHb CJlOllal\Koro CTaTHCTH- '1eCKoro YnpaBJIeHHR, III KII. 1993 r. H. To )l(e, 'ITO H npHMe'laHHe M. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE 1993 r., CTp. 56. CTaTHCTH'IeCKHii ElOnneTeHb CnOBall.Koro CTaTHC'lI'H'IeCKOrO YnpaBJIeHHiI, III KB. 1993 r. K. CpeAHAR aapa60THaR nJiaTa 3aHATblX B HaLlHoHanbHoH 3KOHOMHKe (6e3 CeJIbCKOro XOaRHCTBa). l:iHAeKc aa 1993 r. paCC'IHTaH KaK OTHoweHHe llaHHblX 3a I-III KB. 1993 r. K cooTBeTcTB)'lOlI.\eMY nepHo~y 1992 r. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE 1993 r., CTp. 44. Prehled ukazatelu ekonomickeho a socialniho rozvoje Ceske Repub/iky (Survey of IndicalOrs of Economic and Social Developmem in Czech Republic. III KB. 1993 r., '1aCTb V. JI. Cpe,ll;HSISI aapa60THaSi nnaTa aaHATblX B Hal\HOHaJlbHOii 3KOHOMHKe (6ea CeJlbCKoro xoaSliicTBa). l:iHAeKc aa 1993 r. paCC'IHTaH KaK OTHoweHHe AaHHLlX aa III KB. 1993 r. K ~aHHblM aa III KB. 1992 r. l:ia HH,Il;eKCa aa 1993 r. HCKJlIO'IeHa Ol\eHKa AOXOAOB MaJlblX npe~npHflTHii. l:iCTO'lHHK; 1.{CE, 1993 r., CTp. 58. Economicky monitor Siovenske Republiky, 10/1993 r., '1aCTb II. M. ,I:(eHe)l(Hble AoxOAbl HaCeJleHHA B LleJlOM. B AaHHble 0 ,Il;oxo,ll;ax HaCeJIeHHA aa 1990, 1991 H 1992 IT. BKJlIO'IeHbl ,Il;OXO,ll;bl nOJIY'leHHble aa py6e)l(OM, BMeCTO ,Il;OXO,ll;OB, nOJlyqeHHblx Ha-aa rpaHHLlbl. ,[(aHHble aa 1992-1993 IT. - npe~BapHTenbHble. l:iH,Il;eKC 1993 r. paCC'IHTaH KaK OTHomeHHe ,Il;aHHblX aa III KB. 1993 r. K AaHHblM aa III KB. 1992 r. l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE 1993 r., CTp. 44. PreMed IIkazatelu ekonomickeho a socialniho rozvoje Ceske Repllbliky (Survey of Indicators of Economic and Social Developmem in Czech Republic, III KB. 1993 r. H • .D,eHe)l(Hble ,Il;OXO,ll;bI HaceneHHfI B l\enOM. (CM. Bblwe). l:iCTO'lHHK: 1.{CE, 1993 r., CTp. 58. Economicky monilor Siovenske Repllbliky. 10/1993 r., '1aCTb II. o. 3a HCK.T1IO'IeHHeM )l(eHlI.\HH B oTnycKax no 6epeMeHHoCTH H pOAaM H AOnOJIHHTeJlbHblX oTnycKax no 6epeMeHHocTH H pOAaM, npaKTHKaHToB, H BKJIIO'Iafi cOBMeCTHTeJIeH; pa60THHKH CeJlbCKOXOaAHCTlleHHblx KoonepaTHBoB OTHeceHbl K oTpacnSlM npOMblWJIeH- HOCTH B COOTBeTCTBHH C BblnOJIHfleMOH AeflTeJIbHOCTbIO. ConocTaBHMoH LlH!jlPbl aa 1993 r. e~e HeT, n03ToMY YKaaaHHblH HH,Il;eKC paCC'IHTaH KaK OTHOmeHHe Cpe,ll;HeH '1HCJleHHOCTH pa60THHKOB B !jlHpMax C '1HCJlOM aaHflTblX 60Jlee 25 '1eJlOBeK B I-III KB. 1993 r. K I-HI KB. 1992 r., 3a HCKJlIO'IeHHeM CeJlbCKOXOaAHCTBeHHblx KoonepaTHBoB t{eWCKUR Pecny6.nUKa U C.nO(JaKUR 129 (COOTBeTCTBYIO~Hii HHAeKC 3a 1992 r. paBeH -16.2). HCTO'IHHK: tICE, 1993 r., CTp. 44. Prehled ukazatelu ekonomickeho a socialniho rO"lYQje Ceske Republiky (Survey of Indicators of Economic and Social Development in Czech Republic, III KB. 1993 r., 'IaCTb V. n, 3a HClUJlO'IeHHeM lKeH~HH B OTnYCKaX no 6epeMeHHoCTH H pOAaM H AononHHTenb- HblX OTnYCKax no 6epeMeHHocTH H pOAaM, npaKTHKaHTOB, H BIUJJO'IaR coBMeCTHTeneii; pa60THHKH cenbcKoxo3RHCTBeHHblx KoonepaTHBoB OTHeceHbI K OTpaCJI.IIM npOMblWJIeH- HOCTH B COOTBeTCTBHH C BbinonHReMoH AeRTeJIbHOCTbJO. HCTO'lHHK: tICE, 1993 r •• CTp.58. p. Pa60'lHX npOMblWJIeHHblX npeAnpHRTHH; AaHHble 0 BaJIOBOM 06beMe npOH3BoAcTBa 3a BbI'IeTOM 06'beMa BblnYCKa BcnOMOr"aTeJIbHblX MaCTepCKHX H npOH3BOACTB H HenpoMblwneHHblx OPr"aHH3aQHii; BnnOTb AO 1991 r. AJIR npeAnpHRTHH C 'IHCJlOM 3aH.IITbiX 101 'IenOBeK H 60nee; HHAeKC 3a 1993 r. -OTHoweHHe AaHHblX 3a HO.ll6pb 1993 r. K AaHHblM 3a HOR6p" 1992 r. Hcro'lHHK: tICCE, 1991 r., CTp. 347; tICE, 1993 r., CTp. 239. Slatisticke Irifonnace CSO,Prumysl 11/1993 r .. CTp. 1. c. To lKe, 'ITO H npHMe'laHHe p.; HHAeKC 3a 1993 r. paCC'IHTaH KaK OTHoweHHe AaHHblX 3a RHBapb-ceHTR6pb 1993 r. KAaHHblM 3a RHBapb-ceHTR6pb 1992 r. HCTO'lHHK: tICCE, 1991 r., CTp.347; tICCE, 1992 r., 510nneTeHb CnoBaQKoro CTaTHCTH'IeCKoro YnpaBJIeHHR, 9/1993 r., CTp. 12. T. To lKe, 'ITO H npHMe'laHHe p. HCTO'lHHK: tICCE, 1991 r., CTp. 347; tICE, 1993 r., cTp.239. y. To lKe, 'ITO H npHMe'laHHe p. HCTO'lHHK: tICCE, 1991 r., CTp. 347. KHH (37-38%%) cna,Z:( npoH3Bo,Z:(cTBa. KaK nOKa3blBalOT ,Z:(aHHble 3a 1993 r., C pa3,Z:(eneHHeM ,Z:(Byx CTpaH, npoH30wno cepbe3Hoe pacxo)!(,Z:(eHHe B pa3BHTHH npoMblwneHHoro npoH3Bo,Z:(cTBa. npOMblW- neHHoe npoH3Bo,Z:(CTBO LJexHH cOKpaTHnocb eij!e Ha 7,4%, Tor,Z:(a KaK B CnoBaKHH Ha6nlO'z:(anC.R 60nee KpyroH cna,Z:( B 18,2%. B 06eHx CTpaHax Ha6nlO'z:(anC.R 60nee YMepeHHoe cOKpaIlJeHHe 60nee WHPOKOH Mepbl npoH3Bo,Z:(cTBa, '-IeM nOKa3aTenb npoMblwneHHoro npoH3Bo,Z:(CTBa - BBn, '-ITO OTpa:>KanO 6blCTpoe pa3BHTHe ceKTopa ycnyr. TO'-lHO TaK :>Ke, KaK H B cnyqae C npOH3BO,Z:(CTBOM, 3a nepHO,Z:( C cepe,Z:(HHbl ,Z:(O KOHua 80-x fT. B LJexocnoBaKHH Ha6nlO,Z:(anC.R YMepeHHblH pOCT 3aH.RTOCTH (npHMepHo 0,7% B ro,Z:() , npH'-IeM B CnoBaUKoH Pecny6nHKe Ha6nlO,Z:(anC.R 60nee 6blCTPblH pOCT 3aH.RTOCTH (0,9%), '-IeM B LJewcKoH Pecny6nHKe (0,6%).3 POCT 3aH.RTOCTH npeKpaTHnC.R B 06eHx pecny6nHKax B 1989 r., a B 1990-1992 fT. OHa COKpaij!anaCb. nOCKonbKy,Z:(aHHble 0 3aH.RTOCTH C06HP3IOTC.R C HeKOTopblM n3rOM, Mbl nOK3 He pacnonaraeM Ha,Z:(e:>KHbIMH ,Z:(aHHbIMH 3a 1993 r. O!,!eHKa ,Z:(n.R LJewcKoH Pecny6nHKH, O,Z:(HaKO nOKa3bIBaeT, '-ITO COKpaIlJeHHe 3aH.RTOC- TH B 1993 r. npeKpaTHnocb. OqJH!,!HanbHble ,Z:(aHHble, npHBe,QeHHble B Ta6nHue 3-1, nOKa3b1Ba1OT, 'ITO 3aH.RTOCTb B 1990-1992 fT. COKpa1!!a- naCb 3Ha'-lHTenbHO 6blCTpee B CnoBaUKHx, '-IeM B LJewcKHx 3eMn.RX. TaKHM 06pa30M, HMe.R npaKTH'-IeCKH H,Z:(eHTH'-IHble npoqJHnH BBn H npoMblwneHHoro npoH3Bo'z:(CTBa, ,Z:(Be pecny6nHKH B Te'-leHHe nepBblx Tpex neT nepeXO,Z:(Horo nepHo,Z:(a pa3BHBanHCb no cyy!eCTBeHHO pa3nH'IHblM TpaeKTOpH.RM 3aH.RTOCTH. D3HHbie 0 npOH3BO,Z:(HTenbHOCTH Tpy,Z:(a B npOMblwneHHOCTH, H3MepeHHOH Ha O,Z:(Horo 3aH.RTOrO, YKa3blBalOT, '-ITO B 06eHx pecny6nH- Kax B 1990 r. Ha6nlO'z:(anocb He3Ha'-lHTenbHoe ee CHH>KeHHe (MeHee 1%), 3a KOTOPbIM, B 1991 r., nocne,QOBano cepbe3Hoe na,QeHHe (H3 14-15%%) H MeHee rny60Koe CHH>KeHHe (3% H MeHbwe) B 1992 r. OTpacneBble ,QaHHble nOKa3b1Ba1OT, '-ITO KpynHblH cna,Q npOH3BO,Z:(HTenbHOCTH Tpy,Q3 B 1991 r. 6bln WHPOKO pacnpoCTpaHeH H npO.RBHnC.R BO Bcex OTpaCn.RX, 3a HCKJ1IO'-IeHHeM TonnHBHoH H 3HepreTH'-IeCKoH. OTHocHTenbHa.R conOCTaBHMOCTb ,Z:(aHHbIX 0 npoMblwneHHoM npoH3Bo,Z:(CTBe H npoH3Bo- ,Z:(HTenbHOCTH Tpy,Qa ,Z:(Byx pecny6nHK B 1990-1992 fT. nO,Z:(TBep)!(,Z:(aeT, C 1991 no 1992 fT., BepO.RTHO, 3aHH>KeHbI, nocKonbKY CT3THCTH'IeCKHe ynpaBneHH.R npHBo,QHnH ,Z:(aHHble 3a 1991 r. no npe,Z:(npH.RTH.RM co 100 H 60nee pa60THHK3MH, Tor,Z:(3 KaK ,Q3HHble 3a 1992 r. OXB3TblB31OT CPHPMbl C 25 H 60nee pa60THHKaMH. 3K KOH!J)' 1990 r. B 3KOHOMHKe 6blno 3aH.RTO 5,2 MnH. '-IeXOB H 2,4 MnH. cnOBaKOB. I.{eWCKQR Pecny6JlUKQ U CJlO(JQKUR 131 "ITO .QHHaMHKa npOMbllllJIeHHOH 3amiTOCTH B HHX 6blJla CXO)ICeH. 50JIee 6bICTpOe cOKpaIUeHHe 06Q!eH 3aHSlTOCTH B CJIOBaUKOH Pecny6JIHKe, TaKHM 06pa30M, npOHCXO.QHJIO 3a C4eT HHbIX CeKTOpOB 3KOHOMHKH, a He npOMbIWJIeHHOCTH. ,[(aHHble 0 npOH3BO.QHTeJIbHOCTH TPY.Qa B npOMbIWJIeHHOCTH 3a 1993 r. nOKa3blBaIOT cYIUeCTBeHHbIe pa3JlH4HH Me)K.QY .QBYMH cTpaHa- MH: B '-IewcKoH Pecny6JIHKe Ha6JIIO.QaJIOCb ee CHH)lCeHHe Ha 1,4%, Tor.Qa KaK B CJIOBaUKOH Pecny6JIHKe npOH30WJIO cepbe3Hoe na.QeHHe Ha 11,6%. 3TO pa3JIH4He n04TH B T04HOCTH OTpa)ICaeT pa3JIH4He B COKpaIUeHHH npOMblWJIeHHOrO npOH3BO.QCTBa B 1993 r. C TeM, 4T06bl nO.Qp06Hee H3Y"1HTb np06JIeMY a.QanTaUHH pblHKa TpY.Qa. B Ta6JIHUe 3-1 Mbl npHBeJIH TaK)Ke .QaHHble 0 npoH3Bo.QHTeJIb- HOCTH TPY.Qa. H3MepeHHoH KaK 06"beM npoH3Bo.QCTBa 3a "lac pa60Tbi pa604Hx PY"lHoro TpY.Qa (<HYHaJlbHOrO pa3peWeHH.R Ha pa60TY. XOT.R, KaK co06l,UanOcb, O¢HYMaJJbHble naHHble Yt.JMTblBaJJH 3T0 .RBJleHMe, oyeHKH, BepO.RTHO, 6blJlH nOBOJlbHO rpy6bl. Ha ....HHa.R C 1991 r. MHHHCTepCTBa Tpy,na LfexMH M CJlOBaRHH He ny6J1MKoBaJlH oueHOK .... HCJleHHOCTH .... eWCKHX H CJlOBaYKMX rpa)l(JlaH, pa60TalOl,ijHX 3a rpaHHyeH. OnHaKO 06l,ijee Ol.J!Yl,UeHHe TaKOBO. ....TO ....HCno pa60TalOl,UHX 3a rpaHHyeH JllOneH 3Ha"lMTenbHO M B03paCTaeT. oc06eHHO B LfeWCKOH Pecny6nHKe. He06bl"lHOe .RBJleHMe HyJleBOH .RBHOH 6e3pa60TMYbi 6b1J1o OCHOBHOH ueJlblO CMCTeM COBeTcKoro rnna. CMCTeMa 3aCTaBJI.RJla pa60TaTb Bcex B3POCJlbiX rpa)l(JlaH. 3a HCKJlIO....eHMeM nOMOX03.ReK. M 06el,ijana 06eCne....MTb pa60TOH Ka)l(JlorO "IJleHa 06l,ijeCTBa. O,nHHOKHe rpa)l(JlaHe M rJlaBbl nOMaWHMX X03.RHCTB. He :JKeJlalOl,UMe pa60TaTb. no,nnanaJJH non IOpHnH.... ecKyJO KaTeropMIO ~~COUHaJJbHbIX napa3HToB~~ H HM yrpo:JKaJla B03MO:JKHOCTb 6b1Tb oWTpa¢oBaHHbIMM MJlM nonaCTb B 3aKJIIO ....eHMe. TaKMM p6pa30M. C TO ....KM 3peHH.R npenJlO:JKeHMfI Tpy,na. pe:JKMM 3aCTaBn.Rn Bcex 3nOpOBbiX My:JK"IHH M O,nHHOKMX :JKeHl,ijHH BXO,nHTb B t[eWCKaR Pecny6.nuKa u C.no8aKUR 133 COCTaB pa604eH CHnbl. HH3KaH 3apa60THaH nnaTa n06y~ana TaK)Ke pa60TaTb MHornx 3aMY)KHHX )KeHl,uHH, a ,IlOnH )KeHYJ.HH, BXO,llHYJ.HX B COCTaB pa604eH CHnbl, 6blna O,llHOH H3 caMblX BblCOKHX B MHpe (83,4% B 1989 r.; CM. Employment Observatory Central and Eastern Europe, 1992). C T04KH 3peHHH cnpoca Ha TPY,Il, HH3KaH 3apa60THaH nnaTa, He)KeCTKHe 6lO,Il)KeTHble orpaHH4eHHH, ,IleIPH!.lHT MaTepHanoB H wTpacpbl 3a He,llQBbmonHeHHe nnaHOBblX nOKa3aTeneH ,IlenanH ,IlnH rocy,llap- CTBeHHblX H ,Ilpyrnx opraHH3a!.lHH pal!HOHanbHoH H36blT04HYIO 3aHHTOCTb. TaKaH KOM6HHal!HH IPaKTOpOB npHBena K nonHoH 3aHHTOC- TH, 3Ha4HTenbHaH 4aCTb KOTOPOH 6blna H36blT04Ha, npH coxpaHeHHH 60nbworo 4Hcna BaKaHcHH (CM., HanpHMep, Svejnar 1992). PaHoHHbie OT,Ilenbl MHHHCTepCTBa TpY,Ila H COl!HanbHblx BonpocoB B OCHOBHOM 6blnH 3aHHTbi nOHCKOM pa604Hx ,IlnH npe,llnpHHTHH, HcnblTblBalOYJ.Hx He,llOCTaTOK pa604eH CHnbl. TaKHM 06pa30M, ,IlO Ha4ana pacna,lla CHCTeMbl COBeTCKOrO THna B 1990 r. 6ropa6oTH!.la 6bma HeH3BeCTHblM HBneHHeM. Ee3pa6oTH!.la B YexocnoBaKHH Ha4ana Ha6nlO,IlaTbCH B 1990 r. KaK BH,IlHO H3 rpaWHKa 3-1, 6e3pa60TH!.la nOHBHnaCb B 06eHx pecny6- nHKax B I KB. 1990 r. Ha ypOBHe 0,1%.4 K RHBaplO 1991 r. YPOBHH 6e3pa6oTH!.lbl B YexHH H CnoBaKHH BblpocnH H CTanH pa3nH4aTbcH: 1,1% H 2,4% COOTBeTCTBeHHO. rO,llOM n03:>Ke (HHBapb 1992 r.) ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THl!bl ,IlOCTHr nHKa B 4,4% B YewcKoH Pecny6nHKe H 12,7% - B CnOBal!KOH Pecny6nHKe. C RHBapR 1992 r. ypOBHH 6e3pa6oTHl!bl HenpepblBHo na,llanH, nOKa B IV KB. 1992 r. He ,IlOCTHrnH 2,6% H 10,4% B YemcKoH H CnOBal!KOHpecny6nHKax COOTBeTCTBeHHO. C :rroro MOMeHTa ypoBeHb 6e3pa6oTH!.lbl BHOBb CTaJ1 paCTH. npH4eM POCT 6bm 60nee CTa6HnbHbiM H 6blCTPblM B CPo K KOHl!Y 1993 r. ypoBeHb 6e3pa6oTH!.lbl B CnoBaKHH ,IlOCTHr 14,4%, no cpaBHeHHIO co Bcero nHWb 3,5% B YP. Ba)KHO nOMHHTb. "ITO 60nee 6blCTPblH pOCT 6e3pa6oTHl!bl B CnOBaKHH B 1990-1992 IT. cornacyeTcR C 60nee 6blCTPblM COKpaYJ.eHH- eM 3aH.fITOCTH. 4eM B YeWCKHX 3eMn.flX, XOTR OH H npOHCXO,llHn Ha 411HIPopMal!Hfl nonY4eHa H3 pernCTpal!HOHHbiX ,IlaHHbIX, c06paHHbiX paHOHHblMH 61Opo no TpY,Il0YCTPOHCTBY. ,[laHHble 0630pa TpY,IlOBblX PecYPcoB. Ha4aToro B 1993 r., ,IlalOT OCHOBaHHe npe,llnonaraTb "ITO pernCTpa!.lHOHHble ,IlaHHble HeCKonbKO 3aHH:>KanH ypOBeHb 6e3pa6oTH- !.lbl. ,[lenHTeneM B IPOpMyne, HCnOnb3yeMoH paHOHHblMH 61Opo no TPY,Il0YCTPOHCTBYM.fI paC4eTa YPOBH.fI 6ropa60THl!bl, .fIBnfleTCfl CYMMa 4Hcna 6e3pa60THbiX H 3aH.fITbiX B rOCY,IlapCTBeHHOM H KoonepaTHBHOM ceKTopax. 134 Ee3pa6omutJa, nepeCmpOilKa 3KOHOMUKU U pblHOK mpyiJa !flOHe CXOiKerO (O!flHUHaJIbHO 3apernCTpHpOSaHHOrO) na,neHHR BBn H npOMblWJIeHHOrO npOH3S0,nCTSa S ,nsyx pecny6JIHKaX. I1HTepeCHO TaKiKe OTMeTHTb, "ITO XOTR yposeHb 6e3pa60THY,b1 S 1990 H 1991 IT. S CJIOSaKHH poc 6blCTpee, qeM s 1..JewcKHx 3eMJIRX, ypOSHH 6e3pa60TH- Ubi S ,nsyx pecny6JIHKaX MeHRJIHCb aHaJIOrnqHO S TeqeHHe 60JIbWeH qaCTH nepHo,na C 1990 no 1993 IT. (CM. rpadJHK 3-1). aKTOpbl, nOSJIHRSWHe Ha TaKYID HHTepecHYIO ,nHHaMHKY 6e3pa6oTHUbi S ,nsyx pecny6JIHKaX, o6cYiK,llaIOTCR HHiKe S ,naHHoH rJIase. rpa«pHK 3-1. YposeHb 6e3pa6OTHUbi S 1..JexHH H CJIOSaKHH. 14~ ______________________________ ~~ 12+.________________+-~~--~~~---- :s ::r 10 +--------------1------------------ j:&. 81----+--- . ! +------,<----------- 1 8 4 +-------+---r""'''''-''T-------- 2+---~~?~-------------------- 3 8 9 12 3 8 II 12 3 8 9 12 3 8 9 1990 1991 1992 1993 4P -- CP 06'bS1CHeHlfe nOBeJleHlfSl 3apa6oTHoit nJIaTbI If 3aHSlTOCTIf HOR6pbCKaR peSOJIIOUHR 1989 r. npHSeJIa K SJIaCTH JIH6epanbHo opHeHTHposaHHoe cPe,nepaJIbHOe npaSHTeJIbCTSO, KOTopoe HeMe,nJIeHHO ,neSaJIbSHpOSaJIO qexoCJIOSaUKYID KPOHY (Kcs) no OTHoweHHIO K ~ ,naHHOM pa3,nene Mbl H3JIaraeM pe3yJIbTaTbI HCCJIe,nosaHHR Dyba, and Svejnar, 1994. Mbl OTCblJIaeM qHTaTeJIH K 3TOMY HCCJIe,nosaHHIO 3a 60JIee no,npo6HblM OnHCaHHeM pa3JIHqHbiX xapaKTepHCTHK naKeTa pecPopM. t[eWCKaR. Pecny6.nww u C.no(iaKUR. 135 KOHBepTHpyeMblM BanlOTaM, nepeOl,&eHHnO ee no OTHOllJeHHIO K py6nlO H Y)f(eCTO"4HnO 61O,l:l)f(eTHYJO nonHTHKY Ha 1990 r. Ha"4ano nepeXO,l:lHoro nepHO,l:la, O,l:lHaKO, 3a,l:lep)f(anOCb Ha ro,l:l, nocKonbKY "4neHbl q,e,l:lepanbHo- ro, "4ellJCKOrO H CJ10BaYKoro npaBHTeJ1bCTB He MornH cornaCOBaTb ,l:leTanH 3KOHOMH"4eCKOH nporpaMMbl, H, KpOMe Toro, cHTyal,&H.H ycyry6J1S1naCb He06xo,l:lHMOCTblO C03,l:laHH.H H paTHq,HKal,&HH COBepllJeH- 6 HO HOBblX 3aKOHOB, perynHpYJOI,ijHX 3KOHOMH"4eCKYJO ,l:leSiTenbHoCTb. 1 SlHBap.H 1991 r. npaBHTeJ1bCTBO HaKOHel,& npHCTynHno K oCYlJJeCTBJ1eHHIO q,YH,l:laMeHTanbHoro naKeTa peq,opM, B KOTOPblH BXO,l:lHJ1a nH6epanH3al,&H.H 85% Bcex nOTpe6HTenbcKHx l,&eH H l,&eH npOH3BO,l:lHTeJ1eH, ,l:leBaJ1bBaYH.H KPOHbl H npHBSl3Ka ee Kypca K KOp3HHe BMIOT 3ana,l:lHblX CTpaH, BBe,l:leHHe BHyrpeHHeH KOHBepTHpyeMoCTH KPOHbl O,l:lHOBpeMeHHo C 20-npoueHTHblM HMorOM Ha HMnopT, BBe,l:leHHe KOHTPOJ1S1 3a POCTOM 3apa60THoH nJ1aTbl H oCYl,UeCTBJ1eHHe Mep COl,&HaJ1bHOH 3a1,ijHTbl. 3TH pa,l:lHKaJ1bHble Mepbl 6blJ1H BBe,l:leHbl B 06CTaHOBKe 06"1>SlB- J1eHHOH pellJHMOCTH BeCTH orpaHH"4HTenbHYJO MaKp03KOH~MH"4eCKYJO nOJ1HTHKY, KOTopaSi ,l:lonOJ1H.HJ1aCb CHJ1bHblM )f(eJ1aHHeM npHBaTH3Hpo- BaTh rOCY,l:lapCTBeHHYIO c06CTBeHHOCTb, npHBJ1e"4b HHOCTpaHHbIH KanHTaJ1, cnoc06CTBOBaTb pocry "4aCTHbIX q,HPM, COKpaTHTb rocy,l:lap- CTBeHHble Cy6CH,l:lHH q,HpMaM H ,l:lpyrHe roCY,l:lapCTBeHHble paCXO,l:lbl (HanpHMep, Ha BoopY)f(eHHe) H B yeJ10M COKpaTHTb pOJ1b rOCY,l:lapCTBa B 3KOHOMHKe. Bo MHornx OTHOllJeHH.HX Mepbl, npe,llnpHHSlThle "4eXOCJ10- BayKHMH MaCTSlMH B SlHBape 1991 r., nOBTOpSlJ1H BBe,l:leHHble B nOJ1bllJe rO,l:lOM paHee. Mepbl, npOBo,l:lHMble B 1992 r., 6blnH aHanOrH"4Hbl H npe,l:lCTaB- J1S1J1H C060H npO,l:lOn)f(eHHe nepBOHa"4aJ1bHOH nOJ1HTHKH BnJ10Tb ,l:l0 pa3,l:leJ1a Y:exocnoBaKHH 1 SlHBap.H 1993 r. B 1993 r. Y:ellJCKOe H CJ10Bal,&KOe rocY,l:lapCTBa CTaJ1H npOBO,l:lHTb pa3HYIO nOJ1HTHKY. Y:ellJCKOe npaBHTeJ1bCTBO nOCTaBHJ10 nepe,l:l C060H 3a,l:la"4Y BeCTH orpaHH"4HTeJ1b- HYIO MaKpo3KOHOMH"4ecKYJO nonHTHKY, o,l:lHOBpeMeHHo 6b1CTPO 3aBepllJHB npHBaTH3al,&HIO 60J1bllJHHCTBa npe,l:lnpHSITHH. BJ1aCTH CJ10BaKHH BeJ1H MeHee )f(eCTKYJO orpaHH"4HTeJ1bHYIO nOJ1HTHKY H 6 HeKOTopble H3 peq,opM 6blJ1H eCTeCTBeHHblM 06pa30M oCYll!.ec- TBJ1eHbl B Te"4eHHe 1990 r., B TOM "4Hcne OTMeHa Cy6CH,l:lHH Ha HeKOTopble npO,l:lYKTbI, KOTOpa.H COnpOBO)f(,l:laJ1aCb BbmJ1aTOH KOMneHca- YHH B 140 KpOH Ka)f(,l:lOMY rpa)f(,l:laHHHY 9 HIOJ1.H 1990 r.; nOCTeneHHoe Ha"4aJ10 neperoBopoB co CTpaHaMH, HMelOl!!HMH PbIHO"4HYIO 3KOHOMHKY H TaKHMH opraHH3al,&HSlMH, KaK EC; H ,l:laJ1bHeHllJa.H ,l:leBaJ1bBaYH.H BaJ1IOThI oceHblO 1990 r. 136 Be3pa6omulja, nepecmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbLHOK mpyoa BpeMeHHO 3aMe~nHnH npoyecc npHBaTH3aYHH, nOKa OHH oyeHHBanH ~OCTOHHCTBa pa3nH4HbiX MeTO~HK npHBaTH3aYHl1. B 1991 H 1992 fT. cPe~epanbHoe H pecny6nHKaHcKHe npaBH- TenbCTBa 06bl4HO COXpaH.RnH HeH3MeHHoH nonHTHKy, Bblpa60TaHHYlO Ha ~aHHbIH nepHO~. fiaHKoBcKHH Kpe~HT rocy~apcTBeHHblM npe~npH.R­ TH.RM H ~OMaWHHM X03.f1HCTBaM HaXO~HnC.fI no~ KOHTponeM, B TO BpeM.fI KaK 6aHKOBCKHH Kpe~HT 4aCTHbiM npe~npH.fITH.fIM YBenH4Hnc.fI npaKTH4eCKH C HynH B cepe~HHe 71,4 Mnp~ Kcs B KOHye 1990 r. ~o 1991 r. H ~o 125,7 Mnp~ Kcs B cepe~HHe 1992 r. TaKHM 06pa30M 06beM Kpe~HTOBaHH.fI 4aCTHbiX npe~pH.fITHH COCTaBHJI 12% 06beMa Kpe~HTOB, npe~OCTaBJIeHHbIX rocy~apCTBeHHblM npe~npHHTHHM Ha KOHey 1991 r. H 22,3% K cepe~HHe 1992 r., Kor~a Ha4aJIaCb WHPOKO- MacwTa6HaH npHBaTH3aYH.fI rocy~apCTBeHHblx npe~npH.fITHH. rocy~apCTBo TaK~e n03BonHno 6aHKoBcKOMY ceKTopy, Haxo~H1!!eMyc.fl no~ 3a1!!HTOH, YCTaHOBHTb 3Ha4HTenbHYlO Map~y Me~y CTaBKoH npoyeHTa no ccy~aM H ~en03HTaM, TeM caMblM n03BonHB KOMMep4eCKHM 6aHKaM c He~OCTaT04HbIM KanHTanOM HapaCTHTb pe3epBbl. 0cPHYHanbHbIH, e~HHbIH, BanlOTHblH Kypc, YCTaHoBneHHblH B Ha4ane 1991 r., 6bJn onpe~eJIeH Ha ypoBHe, 6nH3KoM K YPOBHIO napanJIeJIbHoro pblHKa H pa3HHya Me~y HHMH OCTaBanaCb He3Ha4HTenbHoH. He60JIbWOH BHeWHHH ~onr 4eXOCJIOBaKHH B03POC C 8,1 Mnp~ ~onn. ClliA B KOHue 1990 r. ~o 9,4 Mnp~ ~onn. K KOHUY 1991 r. B pe3ynbTaTe oCY1!!eCTBJIeHHbIX B 1991 r. 3a14MCTBOBaHHH B 06beMe 2 135 Mnp~ ~onn.1 O~HaKo B03POCWHH BHewHHH ~onr nOJIHOCTblO nOKpbIBaJIC.fI POCTOM pe3epBoB B HHoCTpaHHoH BanlOTe, KOTopble YBeJIH4HnHCb C 1,2 Mnp~ ~onn. B ~eKa6pe 1990 r. ~o 3,3 Mnp~ ~onn. B ~eKa6pe 1991 r. B 1992 r. cYMMa BHeWHero ~OJIra npaKTH4eCKH He H3MeHHnaCb, "ITO nO~TBep~Hno cnoc06HOCTb 4exoc- JIOBaKHH npOBO~HTb 3KOHOMH4eCKHe npe06pa30BaHH.fI 6e3 HaKOnneHH.fI KpynHOH BHeWHeH 3a~OJI~eHHOCTH. HanorOBa.fl nonHTHKa TaK~e 6bJna BnOJIHe ycneWHa. Docne 3aKpb1TH.R 1990 cPHHaHcoBoro ro~a C He60nblllHM npeBblweHHeM ~OXO~OB Ha~ pacxo~aMH, 4exocnOBaUKoe npaBHTeJIbCTBO 3aKOH4Hno 1991 cPHHaHcoBblH ro~ c ~ecPHUHToM B 10,4 Mnp~ Kcs (1,1% BBn). 1992 r. CTpaHa BHOBb 3aKOH4Hna C He3Ha4HTenbHbiM 061!!HM ~ecPHUH­ TOM B 8 Mnp~ Kcs (0,8% BBD). Ba~HoH xapaKTepHCTHKoH pa3BHTH.fI 7 fiblJIH npe,llOCTaBJIeHbl cne~yto1!!He 3aHMbl: MBcll - 1 313 MnH ~OJIn.; BceMHpHblH fiaHK -205 MJIH ~onn.; EBponeHcKoe C0061!!eCTBO - 248 MnH ~onn.; G24 - 89 MnH ~OJIJI.; H qlHHaHcoBblH ceKTop - 280 MJIH ~onn. f{ewCKaR Pecny6.nww U C.Il08aKUR 137 nocne pa3,!:{eJIeHHH 6bUlO TO, 'ITO B 1992 r. ,!:{eq,H!.lHT cnoBa!.lKorO 61O,!:{>KeTa COCTaMHn 7,9 Mnp'!:{ Kcs, Tor,!:{a KaK ,!:{eq,H!.lHT 4eWCKoro 61O,!:{>KeTa 6bln Bcero 1,7 Mnp,!:{ Kcs. s ,[leeHHoCTo TPeTHil ro,!:{ ~ewcKaH Pecny6nHKa 3aKOH,4Hna c YMepeHHblM npeBblweHHeM ,!:{OXO,!:{OB 61O'!:{>KeTa Ha,!:{ pacxo,!:{aMH, Tor,!:{a KaK CnOBa!.lKaH Pecny6nHKa 3apernCTpHpoBana '!:{eq,H!.lHT B 20,3 Mnp,!:{ Kcs. (oKono 7% BBn). DpH o!.leHKe nOnHTHKH CTa6HnH3a!.lHH H 3KOHOMH4eCKHX npe06pa30Ba- HHil He06xo'!:{HMO nOMHHTb, 4TO 3Ta nOnHTHKa npoBo,!:{Hnacb B 06CTa- HOBKe pacna,!:{a C3B H cna,!:{a 3KoHoMH4ecKoil aKTHBHOCTH TPa,!:{H!.lHOH- HblX TOproBblX napTHepoB. nOrnOlJ.leHHe BOCT04HOil repMaHI1H 3ana,!:{Hoil B 1990 r. npe,!:{CTaBnHno c060il nepBblil H3 WOKOB, nocKonbKY BOCT04HaH repMaHHH 6blna rnaBHblM ToproBblM napTHepoM, Ha '!:{onlO KOToporo npHxo,!:{Hnocb 10% 06beMa BHewHeH ToproBnH ~exocnoBa­ KHH. DocnenyIOlJ.lHe Boo,!:{ei1CTBHH Ha 3KOHOMHKY ~exocnoBaKHH npoHCTeKMH H3 pacna.lla COBeTCKOH 3KOHOMHKH H cOKpalJ.leHHH cnpoca co CTOPOHbl BOCT04HoeBponei1cKHx ToproBblx napTHepoB. DepeKnlO4e- HHe c ToproBnH B paMKax C3B Ha cB060,!:{HYIO ToproBnlO Ha 6a3e MHPOBbIX !.leH c 1 HHBapH 1991 r. TaK>Ke npHBeno K 3Ha4HTenbHoMY H3MeHeHHIO ycnoBHH ToprOBnH He B nonb3Y ~exocnOBaKHH. Oq,H!.lHanb- Hble paC4eTbI YKa3blBalOT Ha yxy,!:{weHHe ycnoBHi1 ToprOBnH B I KB. 1991 r. Ha 26%, Ha 28~ - BO II KB.; H 06lJ.lee YXY.llWeHHe Ha 22% 3a nepBble TpH KBapTMa 1991 r. Docne,!:{HHH cepHH WOKOB B03HHKna 1 HHBapH 1993 r .• Kor,!:{a ~exocnoBaKHH pa3,!:{enHnacb Ha ,!:{Be pecny6- nHKH. Hecnoc06HoCTb coxpaHHTb e,!:{HHYIO BanlOTY H nOCTeneHHoe C03'!:{aHHe ToprOBbIX 6apbepoB cOKpaTHno nOTOKH TOBapoB Me>K):{y ,!:{BYMH CTpaHaMH. BBe,!:{eHHe CHCTeMbl HMora Ha ,!:{06aBneHHYIO CTOHMOCTb 1 HHBap$l 1993 r. npHBeno TaK>Ke K HHq,n$l!.lHoHHOil BonHe B I KB. 1993 r. Pa36umue 3aKoHooame.n'bC17l6a 0 pblHKe mpyoa, nO.llUmUKa U uHcmumy- ijUOHWlbHble U3MeHeHUR npou30weowue c 1990 l. B Te4eHHe 1990 r. 6blnH no,!:{rOTOMeHbl npOeKTbI 3aKOHo'!:{aTenbCTBa H 8 .rleq,H!.lHT q,e,!:{epay,HH COCTaBnHn 7 Mnp,!:{ Kcs, a 61O,!:{>KeTbl MeCTHblX opraHoB MaCTH 6bUlH 3aKpblTbi c npeBblweHHeM ,!:{OXO,!:{OB Ha,!:{ pacxo,!:{aMH B 8,6 Mnp,!:{ Kcs. 138 Be3pa6omul4a, nepecmpou'Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U Pbl.HO'K mpyoa MHCTMTYUMOHaJlbHblX MepOnpMlITMA, HaueJleHHblX Ha «npaBMJlbHOeii tP)'HK!JHOHMpOBaHMe pblHKa TpYJla B YCJlOBMlIX PblHOqHOA 3KOHOMMKM. 3aKOH 0 3aHlITOCTM 6blJl oJl06peH CIIeJlepaJlbHblM Co6paHMeM 4 JleKa6pll 1990 r. M BCTynMJl B CMJlY C 1.RHBap.R 1991 r. B 1991 r. 6blJlM BHeceHbl TaK)Ke M3MeHeHM.R B KOJleKC 0 TpYJle. 3aKoH 0 COUMaJlbHOM 06ecneqe- HMM M 3aKOH 0 KOJlJleKTMBHblX ,[loroBopax. 3TM 3aKOHbl, KOTopble 6blJlM nepeHeceHbl Ha ypoBeHb pecny6JlMK nOCJle pa3JleJla CTpaHbl B 1993 r., Ha CerOJlH.RWHMH JleHb COCTaBJl.RIOT IOpMJlMqecKYJO OCHOBY tP)'HKUMOHM- pOBaHM.R qeWCKOro M CJlOBaUKOro PblHKOB TpYJla. 3aKoHoM 0 3aH.RTOCTH nOMMMO tPeJlepaJlbHoro MMHMCTepCTBa, KOTopoe 6blJlO JlMKBMJlMpOBaHo 1 .RHBap.R 1993 r., 6blJlM C03JlaHbl JlBa pecny6JlMKaHCKHx MMHMCTepCTBa TpYJla M COUMaJlbHblX BonpocoB. CIIeJlepaJlbHoe. pecny6JlMKaHCKMe M 06JlaCTHbie 61Opo no TpYJlOYCTpoA- CTBY OTBeqaJIM 3a npOBeJleHMe aKTMBHOH nOJlHTHKH 3aH.RTOCTM. J1x 3aJlaqa COCTOMT B npeJlOCTaBJleHMM MHtP0pMaUMM, KOHCYJlbTaUMH M OKa3aHMM nOMOII.lM npM nOMI.!Ke pa6oTbI, a TalOKe OKa3aHMe nOMOII.lM B C03JlaHMM pa60qMX MeCT nYTeM BblJleJleHMlI Cy6CMJlMH npeJlnpM.RTM.RM, C03JlalOII.lMM pa60qMe MeCTa. OHM TaK)Ke OTBeQalOT 3a nepenOJl["OTOBKY, Ha3HaQeHMe M BbmJlaTY noco6MH no 6e3pa60TMue. Bce 3TO onMcaHO HM)Ke. np ABA P AB01U,[lATEJlEH B OBJlACTJ1 HAHMA J1 YBOJlbHEHJ1fI PABOTHJ1KOB. 3aKoH 0 3aH.RTOCTM JlaeT pa60TOJlaTeJl.RM nOJlHbie npaBa B OTHoweHMM HaAMa pa6oTHMKOB. OJlHaKo B HeM npeJlYCMOTpeHO, QTO B 06.R3aHHOCTM pa60TOJlaTeJl.R BXOJlMT npeJlOCTaBJleHMe MeCTHblM 61Opo no TPYJlOYCTPOHCTBY MHtPopMaUMM 0 CYII.leCTBYJOII.lMX BaKaHCM.RX M B YCTaHOBJleHHble CpOKM nOCTaHOBKa B M3BeCTHOCTb npOtPCOlO30B M 61Opo no TPYJlOYCTPOHCTBY 0 HaMeQaeMblX CTPYKTYPHblX M opraHM3a- !,!MOHHbIX M3MeHeHH.RX MJlM Mepax no pa!,!MOHaJlM3a!,!MM npOM3BOJlCTBa, npeJlnOJlaralOII.lMX YBOJlbHeHM.R. TIpeKpameHMe 3aHflTOCTM perYJlMPYeTClI KOJleKCOM 0 TpYJle. Pa60TOJlaTeJlb MO)KeT YSOJlMTb pa60THHKa npH onpeJleJleHHblX 06CTO.RTeJlbCTBaX, H3 KOTOPblX HaM60Jlee QaCTO BCTpeQaIOTC.R CJleJlYIO- mHe: (a) opraHH3a!,!M.R-pa60TOJlaTeJlb npeKpamaeT JlellTeJlbHOCTb HJlM MeHlIeT MeCTO pacnOJlO)KeHHlI; (6) QaCTb opraHM3a!,!MH-pa6OTOJlaTeJl.R nepeJlaeTC.R JlPyroH opraHM3ayMM, Y KOTOPOH HeT pa60Tbi JlJlll Y)Ke 3aHflTbiX pa60THMKOB; HJlM (B) cymeCTByeT He06xoJlMMOCTb B nOBblwe- HHM 3tPtPeKTHBHOCTH. TIoCJleJlH.RlI KaTerOpMlI JlOCTaTOQHO WHpOKa M B !,!eJlOM n03BOJllleT tPMpMaM YBOJlbH.RTb pa60THMKOB no Mepe B03HMKHO- BeHH.R He06xoJlHMOCTM. YBOJlbHeHM.R MO~ ocymeCTBJlllTbClI npM 06.R3aTeJlbHOM tfew.CKaR Pecny6.1luKa U C.IlO(JaKUR 139 npe.oBapHTeJlbHOM ysenOMJleHHH 3a nBa MecHya. npOnOJ1:lKHTeJlbHOCTb 3TOrO nepHOna yseJlHyeHa .00 TPex MecHyeB B cJlyYae YSOJlbHeHHH H36bITOYHOil pa60yeil CHJlbI. HeKOTOpble KaTerOpHH pa60THHKOB (HanpHMep, HMeIOtyHe .oeTeil B B03paCTe no Tpex JleT) HMeIOT npaBa Ha nOnOJlHHTeJlbHOe BblXOnHoe noc06He, paBHoe HX cpe.oHeil 3apa60THoil nllaTe 3a nHTb MecHyeB. B cJlyYae HaCHJlbCTBeHHbIX YSOJlbHeHHil pa60To.oaTellb 06H3aH TaK)!{e nonbITaTbCH HailTH nOnXOnHlYYIO aJlbTepHaTHBHYIO pa60TY YBOJlbH1IeMbIM pa60THHKaM. ECllH 3TO HeB03MO)!{HO, pa60To.oaTeJlb 06113aH aKTHBHO nOMoraTb rocy.oapCTBY B nOHCKax HOBoilpa60Tbl .llJIH CBOHX 6blBWHX pa60THHKOB. Ha npaKTHKe co.oeHCTBHe, OKa3bIBaeMoe pa60To.oaTeJleM, 06bIYHO orpaHHYHBaeTCH yse.oOMJleHHeM MeCTHbIX 6IOpO no TPynOYCTpOHCTBY o rpHnytyHX YBOJlbHeHH1IX. I1POYH.IlaMeHTanbHbIM npaSOM. KOTopoe nony"lHnH pa6OTHHKH. CTano npaso Ha 3a6aCTOSKH, XOTH OHO H 06ycnosneHo nOnO:lKeHHeM 0 TOM, "ITO 3a6aCTOSKa He3aKOHHa .IlO Tex nop, nOKa CTOPOHbl He npH6ernH K nOCpe.llHH"IeCTSY .IlnH pa3peweHHH TPY.llOSblX KOHq,nHKTOS, H S cnyqae, ecnH nOCpe.llHH"IeCTSO He npHseno K pa3peweHHIO KOHq,nHKTa, TO CTOPOHbI .IlOn:lKHbI nO,llyMaTb 06 ap6HT- pa:lKHOM cY.Ile. Bonee Toro, npe:lK,lle "IeM npoq,colO3 CMO:lKeT oq,HUHanb- HO 06'bHSHTb 3a6aCTosKY, 3a ee npOSe.lleHHe .Ilon:lKHO nporonocosaTb no KpaHHeH Mepe nonOSHHa pa60THHKOS. Ewe O.llHO sa:lKHoe IOpH.IlH"IeCKOe npaBO (orpaHH"IeHHe) KacaeTCH npO.llOn:lKHTenbHOCTH pa60"leH He.llenH, KOTopaH He .IlOn:lKHa npeBblwaTb 43 "Iacos. Bonee Toro, .Il06pOBOnbHaH csepxypO"lHaR pa60Ta He nOOlJ!pReTCR H 60nbwHHCTSO pa60THHKOS He MOryT pa60TaTb csepxypO"lHO 60nee 8 "Iacos S He.llenlO. npO.llOn:lKHTenbHoCTb e:lKerO.llHOrO oTnycKa cOCTasnHeT 3 He.llenH, a nocne nHTHa.lluaTH neT CTa:lKa s03paCTaeT .IlO 4 He.llenb. PEryJII1POBAHHE 3APABOTH0l1 nJIAThI. npH CHCTeMe ueHTpanH- 30saHHoro nnaHHposaHHH 3apa60THaH nnaTa perynHposanacb O"leHb :lKeCTKO. C Tex nop wno o6cY:lK,lleHHe rocY.llapCTBeHHoH nonHTHKH 0 TOM, S KaKOH Mepe .Ilon:lKHa perynHpOBaTbCH 3apa60THaH nnaTa. CHCTeMa onpe.lleneHHH 3apa60THOH nnaTbl 6blna CYlJ!eCTseHHO H3MeHeHa 1 HHsapH 1990 r .• KOr.lla npoq,colO3aM H pa60TO.llaTenHM paapewHnH npHHHMaTb aKTHSHOe Y"laCTHe S onpe.lleneHHH ypOBHH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl S paMKax HOBOH CUCTeMbI npOH3BO.llCTBeHHbIX H TPY.IlOBblX oTHoweHHH. Ha HaUHOHanbHOM ypoBHe npHHHMaeT peweHHH CoseT COlJHanbHOro H 3KOHOMH"IeCKOrO CornaCHH (CC3C), npe.llCTaB- nHIOWHH C060H TpeXCTopOHHlO1O accaM6nelO, KY.Ila SXO.llHT npe.llCTaBH- TenH rOCY.IlapCTSa, pa6OTO.llaTeneH H npoq,C01030S, H, B npHHlJ.Hne, KOHTpaKTbl C ypOSHeM 3apa60THOH nnaTbI HH:lKe YCTaHosneHHoro Ha HalJHOHanbHOM ypOBHe 3aKnlO"IaTbCH He .IlOn:lKHbl. 'C{ewCKaR Pecny6.nUKa U C.nO(JaKUR 141 CC3C yrBep,nHn HOBYJO CenKeT npHMeHHTbCH TonbKO ween ypoBHeM OnnaTbI Tpy,na. BbI,naIOIDHMCH cneUHanHCTaM 3apa6OTHaH nnaTa MO>KeT YCTaHaBnHBaTbCH oT,nenbHO. BHe CeTKH ,non>KHOCTHbIX OKna,nOB. CeTKa ,non>KHOCTHbIX OKna,nOB ,non>KHa 6blTb YHHq,HUHpOBaHa ,nnH Bcex OTPacneM. 3a HCKnlO4eHHeM ropHo-,no6bIBa- IOJUeM (no,npo6Hee CM •• HanpHMep. Nesporova. 1991 r., CTP. 18-19). OnacaHcb BcnneCKa HHq,nHUHH B Te4eHHe nepexo,nHoro nepHo,na, npaBHTeJ1bCTBa nOMep~BanH CpaBHHTenbHO >KeCTKHA KOHTPonb aa POCTOM 3apa6OTHoM nnaTbI. rnaBHoM UeJ1blO BJ1aCTeM 6b1no y,nep~BaTb cpe,nHHe TeMnbl pOCTa aapa6oTHoM nnaTbi HH>Ke O>KH,naeMbiX TeMnOB HHq,nHUHH. B pe3ynbTaTe, B HHBape 1991 r. q,e,nepanbHoe npaBHTeJ1bCTBO (coBMeCTHo C CC3C) YTBep,nHno nepBYJO ro,nOBYJO CHCTeMY perynHpoBaHHH TeMnOB pOCTa 3apa6oTHoM nnaTbl, KOTopaH orpaHH4HBana pOCT 3aTPaT Ha onnaTY TPy,na npe,nnpHHTHM. 9 B nepBOM KBapTane 1991 r. MaKCHManbHO ,nonYCTHMbIA TeMn pOCTa pacxo,noB Ha onnaTY TPY,na 6wn YCTaHOBJ1eH Ha ypoBHe 5% ,nn.R rocy,napCTBeHHblx npe,nnpH.RTHM H 6%,nn.R opraHHaaUHM, q,HHaHcHpye- MblX Ha 61O,n>KeTa (rocy,napCTBeHHa.R a,nMHHHCTpaUH.R) C 4HcnOM 3aHHTbIX 60nee 25 4enOBeK. Pa6oTo,naTenH. 4bH pacxo,nbl Ha onnaTY TPy,na npeBbiwanH YCTaHOBJ1eHHble HopMaTHBbl, HaKa3bIBanHCb nporpeccHBHblM HanoroM. nporpecCH.R Hanora 6blna YCTaHOBJ1eHa cne.nYJOJUHM o6pa30M: (a) HyneBoM Hanor, ecnH ro,noBoM npHpoCT pacxo,noB Ha onnaTY TPy,na He npeBbicHn 3% cBepx HOpMaTHBHoro TeMna; (6) Hanor B pa3Mepe 200% OT cBepxHopMaTHBHoro npHpoCTa pacxo,noB Ha onnaTY Tpy,na. ecnH HX npHpoCT npeBblcHn HopMaTHB 60nee 4eM Ha 5%. B nepBoM nonOBHHe 1992 r. 3KOHOMHKa YexocnoBaKHH q,aKTH4ecKH q,YHKUHoHHpoBana 6ea BC.RKOrO perynHpoBaHHH 3apa6OT- HoA nnaTbl, nocKonbKY CC3C He Morna npHMTH K cornaweHHIO ,no 90Ha 6blnaBBe,neHa ,IlHpetcrnBOM npaBHTenbCTBa 4C(!)P 0 PerynH- PYJOJUHX Hanorax OT 3 lIHBapH 1991 r. nocne.nYJOJUHe nonpaBKH MO>KHO HaMTH B CBo,ne 3aKoHoB »- 15/1991 r. (nonpasKH »- 139 H »- 257) H ,IlHpeKTHBe npaBHTenbCTBa YC(!)P OT 25 HlOnH 1991 r. 142 Be3pa6omUlla, nepeCmpoi11w 3X:OHOMUX:U U pblHOX: mpyoa KOHUa BeCHbl 3TOro rOAa. CxeMa HIOJUI/AeKa6pfl 1992 r. H3Memma cxeMY 1991 r. B HeCKOJlbKHX OTHoweHHflX. Bo-nepBblx, OHa KaCaJlaCb JlHWb npeAnpHflTHH C AOJleH roCYAapCTBeHHOH HJlH MYHHUHnaJlbHOH c06CTBeHHOCTH OT 50% H 60Jlee. rOCYAapCTBeHHble npeAnpHflTHfi C AOJleH HHOCTpaHHoro KanHTaJla, paBHoH 30% H 60Jlee, OAHaKO, He nOAnaAaJlH nOA :::tTy cxeMY. BO-BTOPbIX, 6blJlO YTBep)KJleHO TPH HopMaTHBa TeMnOB pOCTa paCXOAOB Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT ypOBHfI 3q,q,eKTHBHOCTH npeAnpHflTHfi. B lIaCTHOCTH, q,HpMaM C 60Jlee BblCOKHM OTHoweHHeM npH6blJlH K 3aTpaTaM n03BOJlflJlCfI 60Jlee BblCOKHH TeMn pOCTa paCXOAOB Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa. HopMaTHBbl npHpOCTa paCXOAOB Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa B Heq,HHaHCOBOM ceKTope, YCTaHOBJleHHble TpeXCTopOHHHM COrJlaWeHHeM Ha HIOJlb-AeKa6pb 1992 r., 6blJlH TaKOBbl: (a) 12% AJlfI npeAnpHflTHH C OTHoweHHeM npH6blJlH K 3aTpaTaM OT 0 AO 12 B 1992 r.; (6) 16% AJifi npeAnpHflTHH, Y KOTOPblX OTHoweHHe npH6blJlH K 3aTpaTaM npeBblWaJlO B 1992 r. 12; H (B) 6% AJifi OCTaJlbHblx. (T.e., y6b1TOllHb1X) npeAnpHflTHH. HopMaTHB pOCTa pacxoAoB Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa, YCTaHOBJleHHblH AJlfI 6aHKoB, c6eperaTeJlbHbiX 6aHKoB H CTpaxoBblx KOMnaHHH, 6blJl paBeH 0%, nOCKOJlbKY 3apa60THafi nJiaTa B :::tTOM ceKTope B 1991 r. pocJla 6blCTpee HopMaTHBHblX TeMnOB. CTaBKH HaJlOra Ha npeBbIweHHe HopMaTHBHblX pacxoAoB Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa AJifi 3Toro ceKTopa OCTaJlHCb TeMH )ICe, liTO H B 1991 r. B TelleHHe flHBapfl-HIOHfI 1993 r. 3apa60THafi nJiaTa onflTb He peryJlHpOBaJlaCb. C 1 HIOJlfI B 'YewcKoH Pecny6J1HKe TIoCTaHOBJleHHeM TIpaBHTeJlbCTBa peryJlHpOBaHHe 6blJl0 BHOBb BBeAeHO, HecMoTpfl Ha onn03H!J.HIO npoq,colO30B H pa60TOAaTeJleH. OXBaT peryJlHpOBaHHfI 6blJl pacwHpeH, H nOA peryJlHpOBaHHe nOAnaA3JlH Bce (B TOM lIHCJle lIaCTHble) npeAnpHflTHfi C lIHCJlOM pa60THHKOB 60Jlee 25 lIeJlOBeK. CpeAHeH 3apa60THoH nJiaTe 6blJlO n03BOJleHO paCTH 6blCTpee (AO 15% no OTHoweHHIO K npeAblAYU!eMY rOAY) H 6blJlH CHflTbl pa3J1HlIHH B HopMaTHBax TeMnOB pOCTa 3apa60THoH nJiaTbI B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT npoH3BOAHTeJlbHOCTH. TIo cpaBHeHHIO C cHCTeMoH peryJlHpOBaHHH 1992 r. wTpaq,bl 6blJlH cOKpaI!!eHbl, TaK )ICe KaK H npeAeJlbl «AonYCTH- MblX OWH6oK»: npeAnpHHTHfI, lIbH cpeAHHH 3apa60THaH nJiaTa Bblpocna no cpaBHeHHIO C TeMnOM pOCTa npeAbIAYU!ero rOAa 6oJlee, lIeM Ha 15% H MeHee, qeM Ha 30%, AOJl)KHbI 6blJlH ynJlaTHTb wTpaq, B pa3Mepe 100% OT npHpocTa pacxoAoB Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa cBepx 15%. TenpeAnpHflTHfI, KOTopble n03BOJlHJlH pacxoAaM Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa paCTH TeMnOM CBblwe 30%, AOJl)ICHbl 6blJlH ynJlaTHTb AonOJlHHTeJlbHblH wTpaq, B pa3Mepe 200% OT npeBblweHHH pOCTa B 30%. IlITpaq,bl HaKJI3AbIBaJlHCb paHoH- HblMH 61Opo no TPYJt0YCTPOHCTBY e)ICeKBapTaJlbHo. £feWCKafl PecnYMWW U C./108aKUfl 143 HHTepeCHO, qTO B 1993 r. B CJJOBaKHH He 6blJJO BBe,QeHO peryJJHpOBaHHH 3apa6OTHOH nJJaTbl. CJJOBaUKHe BJJaCTH nO,QrOTOBHJJH naKeT Mep no peryJJHpOBaHHIO 3apa60THOH nJJaTbl Ha 1994 r., HO no COCTOHHHIO Ha cpespaJJb 1994 r. OH eille He BCTynHJJ B 3aKOHHYlO CHJJy. PeaKl./Ufl rta nO./lumu1Q1 U 8HeULrtue 803deiicm8Ufl 3a npede./laMU pblHKa mpyda KaK Y)l{e OTMeqaJJOCb paHee, BJJHHHHe n,oJJHTHKH nepexo,Qa H BHeWHHX B03,QeHCTBHH Ha 3KOHOMHKY 6blJJO 3HaqHTeJJbHbiM. Bce arperaTHble nOKa3aTeJJH 06beMa npOH3BO,QCTBa 3acpHKCHpOBaJJH ero YMepeHHoe CHH)I{eHHe B 1990 r., CHJJbHOe na,QeHHe B 1991 r. H Bce eijle 3HaqHTeJJb- HblH cna,Q B 1992 r. OTpaCJJeBaH pa36HBKa npOMblWJJeHHOrO npoH3Bo,Q- CTBa ,QaeT OCHOBaHHe nOJJaraTb, qTO HaH60JJee nO,QBep)l{eHHbIMH cna,Qy OKa3aJJHCb yrJJe,Qo6blqa, MawHHoCTpoem.fe, npoH3Bo,QCTB03JJeKTpHqeC- KHX H OnTHqeCKHX HHCTpYMeHToB H TpaHcnopTHblX cpe,QCTs, a TalOKe TeKCTHJJbHaH npOMbIWJJeHHoCTb. CeJJbCKOe X03HHCTBO HcnblTblBaJJO cna,Q B TeqeHHe Bcero nepHo,Qa 1990-1993 IT. HanpoTHB, CTpOHTeJJb- CTBO B 1992 r. OKa3aJJOCb B CTa,QHH BneqaTJJHlOijlero B03po:lK,QeHHH (4,2% B "Y:P H 24,1% B CP) nOCJJe nepHo,Qa cna,Qa KaK S 1990 r., TaK H B 1991 r., HO 0ueHKH Ha 1993 r. n03BOJJHIOT 3aKJJIOqHTb, qTO 06beM npoH3BoilCTBa B CTpoHTeJJbCTBe cOKpaTHJJCH 6oJJee, qeM Ha 4% B "Y:exHH H 6oJJee, qeM Ha 20% B CJJOBaKHH. HHcpJJHYHH, H3MepeHHaH KaK HH,QeKC nOTpe6HTeJJbCKHX ueH, B cpe,QHeM COCTaBJJHJJa 1% B ro,Q 3a 1985-1989 IT., HO B 1990 r. BblpOCJJa B o6eHx pecny6JJHKaX ,QO 10%. B 1991 r. nOTpe6HTeJJbCKHe yeHbl SblpOCJJH Ha 57% B "Y:ewcKoH Pecny6JJHKe H Ha 61% B CJJOBaKHH. B 1992 r. pOCT yeH COCTaBHJJ COOTBeTCTBeHHO 11% H 10%, a B 1993 r. - 21% H 26%. BOJJbWaH qaCTb pOCTa yeH B 1991 r. 6bIJJa 06YCJJOBJJeHa HeO)l{H,QaHHoH JJH6epaJJH3aYHeH 85% yeH 1 HHBapH 1991 r. K anpeJJIO 1991 r. HHtPJJlIUHOHHaH BOJJHa oCTaHOBHJJaCb, H ,QO KOHya 1992 r. HHtPJJHYHH COCTaBJJHJJa MeHee 1% B cpe,QHeM B MeCHY. B xO,Qe nepBoH tPa3bl nepexo,QHoro nepHoila nOKynaTeJJbHaH cnoco6HoCTb nOTpe6HTeJJeH 6blJJa CHJJbHO nO,QopBaHa. KaK MO)l{HO paCCqHTaTb Ha OCHOBe ,QaHHbIX, npHBe,QeHHblx B Ta6JJHue 3-1, peaJJbHaH 3apa6oTHaH nJJaTa nOTpe6HTeJJeH cOKpaTHJJaCb Ha 6% B 1990 r. H Ha 25-27% B 1991 r. B 1992 r. HOMHHaJJbHaH aapa60THall nJJaTa B03pOCJJa 60JJee qeM Ha 20%, TeM caMblM nO,QHHB peaJJbHYIO 3apa6OTHYJO nJJaTY Ha 11% B "Y:exHH H Ha 10% B CJJOSaKHH. B 1993 r. peaJJbHaH 3apa6oTHall nJJaTa nOTpe6HTeJJeH OCTaSaJJaCb noqrn nocToHHHOH B 06eHx pecny6JJHKax. B UeJJOM K KOHYY 1993 r. peaJJbHaH 144 l3e3pa6omulJa, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U pblHOK mpyoa aapa6OTHaJ'l nnaTa nOTpe6HTeneH 6blna Ha 22,5% HH>Ke ypOBH.R 1989 r. B ~ewcKoH Pecny6nHKe H Ha 27% - B CnoBaKHH. OnblT HeKoTopblX ,npyrHx nepexo,nHblX 3KOHOMHK CBH,neTenb- CTByeT 0 TOM, t.JTO na,neHHe peanbHOH aapa60-rnOH nnaThI nOTpe6HTe- neH COnpOBO>K,nanOCb POCTOM peanbHOH aapa60THOH nnaTbl npOHaBO,nH- TeneH. 3TO 6blJ10 He TaK B cnYt.Jae ~ewCKOH H CnOBa!J:KOH pecny6nHK. nocne ,neneHH.R HOMHHanbHOH aapa60THOH nnaTbl Ha HH,neKC yeH npOHaBo,nHTeneH Ha Ta6nHUbi 3-1 MO>KHO BH,neTh, t.JTO K KOHYY 1993 r. peanbHa.R aapa6OTHa.R nnaTa npoHaBo,nHTeneH 6blna Ha 20% HH>Ke, t.JeM B 1989 r., B ~ewcKoH Pecny6nHKe, H Ha 16,5% HH>Ke B CnoBaKHH. no- BH,nHMOMY, npoHcxo,nHno cne,nytOlJJee: peanbHaJ'l aapa60THaJ'l nnaTa nOTpe6HTeneH H npoHaBo,nHTeneH MeHJ'lnHCb B ~P 60nee HnH MeHee CHHXPOHHO, Tor,na KaK B CnoBaKHH peaJ1bHa.R aapa60THa.R nnaTa nOTpe6HTeneH ynana ropaa,no 60nee CHnbHO, t.JeM peanbHa$l aapa60T- Ha$l nnaTa npoHaBo,nHTeneH. O,nHaKo B 06eHx pecny6nHKax npe,nnpHJ'I- TH$I BblHrpblBanH OT aHa1.lHTenbHoro CHH>KeHH$I peanbHoH aapa60THoH nnaTbl npOHaBo,nHTeneH. TOT cjJaKT, t.JTO npe,nCTaBHTeJ1H t.JeWCKHX pa60To,naTeneH 6blnH aa oTMeHY KOHTpOn$l Han POCTOM aapa60THOH nnaThI B 1993 r., cornacyeTC.R C TaKHM XO.llOM C06bJTH~t Ha6nro,nanocb TaK>Ke KpynHoe CHH>KeHHe HHBeCTH!J:HoHHOH aKTHBHOCTH. B 1990 r. peanbHble t.JHCTble HHBeCTH!J:HH B OCHOBHOH KanHTan BblpocnH Ha 6,5% B ~P H Ha 5,3% B CP, HO B 1991 r. OHH cOKpaTHnHcb ,no 78% H 76% OT ypOBH.R 1989 r. COOTBeTCTBeHHO. HHBeCTH!J:HoHHa.R aKTHBHOCTb ,nOCTHrna nHKa HeCKonbKo noa>Ke H B 1992 r. ypoBeHb HHBeCTHUHH no OTHOWeHHro K 1989 r. COCTaBnJ'ln 85,5% H 92,27. COOTBeTCTBeHHO. npe,nBapHTenbHble ,naHHble aa nepBytO nonoBHHY 1993 r. rOBOpJ'lT 0 TOM, t.JTO B ~eWCKOH Pecny6nHKe HHBeCTHYHH BblpocnH npHMepHO Ha 7%, Tor,na KaK B CnoBaKHH OHH cOKpaTHnHcb not.JTH Ha 16%. Yt.JHTbIBa.R HHaKHH cnpoc Ha npo,nYK!J:Hro, orpaHHt.JHTeJ1bHytO MaKp03KoHoMHt.JecKYro nonHTHKY H Heonpe,neneH- HOCTb B OTHoweHHH nepe,na1.lH npaB c06CTBeHHoCTH, MHorne npe,nnpH$I- TH.R, TaKHM 06paaoM, npe,nnot.JnH COKpaTHTb CBOH HHBeCTHYH!'! B 1991- 1993 IT. OCHOBHOH peaKYHeH npe,nnpHJlTHH Ha orpaHHt.JHTeJ1bHYro Kpe,nHTHO-,neHe>KHytO H 6ro,n>KeTHO-Hanor'OBytO nonHTHKY CTano BoapaCTaroq&ee HCnOnb30BaHHe Kpe,nHToB (aa,non>KeHHoCTH) Me>K,nY npe,nnpH.RTH.RMH. MepoH 3Toro JlBneHHJI cnY>KHT cYMMa Heonnat.JeHHblX 06.RaaTenbCTB npe,nnpH.RTHH, nOKaaaHHa.R B HX 6anaHcax. 3TH ,naHHble r'OBOP.RT 0 CHJIbHOM pOCTe aanOn>KeHHOCTH npe,nnpH.RTHH ,npyr ,npyry C 45 Mnp,n KpOH B KOHue 1990 r. ,no 145 Mnp,n KpOH B KOHUe 1991 r. TaKHM 06paaoM, ecnH B KOH!J:e 1990 r. HenoraWeHHaJ'laa,non>KeHHOCTb t{ewCKaR PecnyO.rzUKa U C.rzo8aKUR 145 npe,l:lnpHRTHH COCTaBJlRJIa 8,4% 06IJ.leH Cj'MMbl 6aHKoBcIillX Kpe,l:lHTOB npe,l:lnpHRTHHM, TO K KOHlJY 1991 r. 3Ta !.1Hcppa B03pOCJIa ,1:10 28%. 3TO 3Ha4HTeJ1bHbIH paCT, KOTOPblH npe,l:lCTaBJIReT OrpOMHytO nOTeH!.1HaJIb- HytO np06JIeMY ,l:lJIR rocY,I:IapCTBa H 6aHKoB. 3TO TaK>Ke B 60JIbllJOH CTeneHH 06"bRCHHeT, n04eMY npaKTH4eCKH HH O,I:IHO rocY,I:IapCTBeHHoe npe,l:lnpHRTHe He 06aHKpOTHJIOCb B YCJIOBHRX, Ka3aJIOCb 6bl, >KeCTKOH orpaHH4HTeJIbHOH MaKp03KOHOMH4eCKOH nOJIHTHKH H CHJIbHeHlllHX BHelllHHX B03,1:1eHCTBHH Ha 3KOHOMHKY. rOCY,I:IapCTBO 3HaJIO 06 3TOH F1p06JIeMe, H oceHblO 1991 r. OHO Bbl,l:leJIHJIO 6aHKaM 50 MJIP,l:l KpOH H3 CBoero (6Y,I:IYIJ.lero) ,I:IOXO,l:la OT npHBanf3alJHH ,l:lJIR yaeJIH4eHHH HX KanHTaJIa H 4acnt4Horo (BbI60p04Horo) cOKpalYeHHR 3a,l:lOJI>KeHHOCTH nepCneKTHBHblX npe,l:lnpHHTHH 6aHKaM. .D:aHHble 0 3a,l:lOJI>KeHHOCTH npe,l:lnpHRTHH ,I:Ipyr ,I:IPyry OTp;:l>KaIOT ee CHH>KeHHe B nepBoH nOJIOBHHe 1992 r. ,1:10 123,7 MJIP,l:l KpOH, HO OHa CHOBa B03pOCJIa B 1993 r. K CO>KaJIeHHIO, Ha4HHaH C Cepe,l:lHHbl 1992 r. ,I:IOCTOBepHoCTb 3THX ,I:IaHHblX BeCbMa cnopHa. 8 Ha4aJIe 1994 r. 06"beM B3aHMHoH 3a,l:lOJI>KeHHOCTH npe,l:lnpHRTHH B YelllcKcH Pecny6JIHKe O!.1eHHBaJICH B 150-200 MJIP,l:l KpOH. 8 06JIaCTH BHelllHeH TOprOBJIH YelllcKaR H CJIOBalJKaH pecny6JIHKH npOBeJIH KpynHylO cTpyKTypHylO nepecrpoHKY. K 1992 r. TOprOBJIH C (6bIBlllHMH) C0!.1HaJIHCTH4eCKHMH CTpaHaMH, Ha ,I:IOJIIO KOTOPOH B 1989 r. npHXO,l:lHJIOCb 60JIee 55% 06"beMa 4elllcKoH H CJIOBa!.1KoH BHelllHeH TOprOBJIH, COCTaBHJIa MeHee 24% 06"beMa BHelllHeH TOprOBJIH YP H 39% 06"beMa BHelllHeH TOprOBJIH CP. 10 TOprOBJ111 3a HeKoHBepTHpyeMytO 'BaJIIOTY B 1991 r. npaKTH4eCKH nOJIHOCTblO npeKpaTHJIacb. Pacna,l:l C38 npHBeJI K COKpal!!eHHIO 06"beMa TOprOBJIH B 1990- 1991 IT. O,l:lHaKO B 1991-1993 IT. 06"beM 3KcnopTa H HMnopTa YexHH YCTOH4HBO B03paCTaJI, TOr,l:la KaK B CJIOBaKHH, ,I:IaHHblX 3a 1993 r. no KOTOPOH elYe HeT, o6"beM 3KcnopTa H HMnopTa B 1991-1992 IT. CTarHHpOBaJI. Pa3,1:1eJI YexOCJIOBaKHH 1 HHBapH 1993 r. Ha YelllcKytO H CJIOBa!.1KYIO pecny6JIHKH npHBeJI K cOKpal!!eHHIO 06"beMa TOproBJIH Me>K.rlY ,I:IBj'MH pecny6JIHKaMH. XOTH T04HaR BeJ1H4HHa 3Toro COKpal!!e- HHR Bce eIJ.le He RCHa, 3a nepBble TpH MeCRlJa 1993 r. OHa, BH,I:IHMO. COCTaBHJIa 30-40%%. npHBaTH3a!.1HR RBJIReTCR O,l:lHHM H3 rJIaBHblX MeponpHRTHH lOS 3THX paC4eTaX TOprOBJIR YexHH co CJIOBaKHeH C4HTaJIaCb BHYTPeHHeH TOprOBJIeH. 146 Be3pa6omw-la, nepeCmpoi'iKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa nporpaMMbl nepeXOnHOrO nepHOna, H MO)f(HO C4HTaTb, "ITO YeXOCJlOBa- KHH nponBHHyJlaCb B 3TOM HanpaBJleHHH naJlbWe BCeX OCTaJlbHblX nepeXOnHblX 3KOHOMHK. DpHBaTH3aYHH MeJlKHX H CpenHHX npennpHH- THH Ha4aJlaCb oceHblO 1990 r., H K KOHl.!)' 1991 r. 4eXOCJlOBaYKoe npaBHTeJlbCTBO nponaJIo CBblwe 15 000 npoH3BoncTB; K TpeTbeMY KBapTaJlY 1992 r. ony6J1HKoBaHHaH yHtPpa 6blJla 6J1H3Ka K 30 000. ElJ!e 60Jlee Ba)f(HbIM cpenCTBOM npHBaTH3aYHH MeJlKHX H cpenHHX 06beKTOB co6CTBeHHoCTH 6blJl HX B03BpaT npe)f(HHM BJlaneJlbyaM (BJlaneBWHM HMH no 1948 r.) HJlH HX HaCJlenHHKaM. K cepenHHe 1992 r. 6blJlO B03BpailleHo CBblwe 120 000 o6beKToB C nOMOlllblO npoyecca, KOTOPblH npenycMaTpHBaJl TaK)f(e B03BpaT )f(HJlbH, "ITO C03naBaJlO Heo6xonHMble YCJlOBHH nJlH B03HHKHOBeHHH pblHKa HenBH)f(HMOCTH B 6ynYlJ!eM. BblpY4Ka OT ((MaJlOH» npHBaTH3aYHH B 1991 r. COCTaBHJla OKOJlO 15 MJlpn KpOH (OKOJlO500 MJlH nOJlJl.). ,[lJlH cpaBHeHHH: cyMMa HH0CTpaHHblx HHBeCTHYHH B 1991 r. COCTaBHJla OKOJlO 600 MJlH nOJlJl. Dpoyecc npHBaTH3aYHH npH6J1H3HTeJlbHO 6 000 KpynHblX 4exocJloBaYKHx tPHPM 6blJl pa36HT Ha nBa 3Tana. DepBblH 3Tan OXBaTblBaJl 2930 tPHPM (2210 H3 HHX B YewcKoH Pecny6J1HKe) H npOXO,L:\HJl B 1992 r. Ha 3TOM 3Tane 1 491 H3 2 930 qlHpM 3ape3epBH- pOBaJlH 4aCTb CBOHX aKYHH nJlH CHCTeMbl BaY4epHoH npHBaTH3aYHH. COrJlaCHO 3TOH CHCTeMe 8,56 MJlH B3POCJlblX (T.e. 60JlbWHHCTBO H3 HMelOlllHx 3TO npaBo JlHY) KynHJlH BaY4epHble KHH)f(KH H HCnOJlb30BaJlH 6aJlJlbl nJlH nOna4H 3aHBOK Ha nOKynKy aKYHH 3THX 1 491 npennpHH- THH, 3ape3epBHpoBaHHblx non pacnpeneJleHHe 3a BaY4epbl. ,[lep)f(aTeJlH BaY4epHblx KHH)f(eK n06pOBOJlbHO pa3MeCTHJlH 72% CBOHX 6aJlJlOB B 434 4aCTHblX HHBecTHYHoHHblX tP0Hnax npHBaTH3aYHH (I1D), TaKHM o6pa30M, JlHWb 28% 6aJlJlOB 6blJlH HHBeCTHpoBaHbl HenocpenCTBeHHo tPH3H4ecKHMH JlHyaMH (aHaJlH3 CHCTeMbl CM. B Svejnar and Singer, 1992 r.). DocJle pa3neJleHHH cTpaHbl Ha nBe pecny6J1HKH YP Ha4aJla BTOPOH 3Tan npHBaTH3aYHH KpynHblx npennpHHTHH B ceHTH6pe 1993 r. CJlOBaKHH no CI1X nop OTKJlanbIBaeT npoBeneHHe BToporo 3Tana. B yeJlOM, no pa3neJleHHH B 1993 r., 4eWCKaH H cJloBaYKaH 3KOHOMHKa ycnewHo HeHTpaJlH30BaJla HHtPJlHYHoHHoe naBJleHHe, nOpO)l(JleHHOe JlH6epaJlH3aYHeH yeH, H npeycneJla B cpaBHHTeJlbHO 6blCTPOM pa3BHTHH 4aCTHoro ceKTopa. YewcKaH Pecny6J1HKa TaK)f(e npHMe4aTeJlbHO ycnewHo npeonoJleJla ToprOBblH WOK H YBeJlH4HJla 06beM CBoero 3KcnopTa H HMnopTa. K 4HCJlY HenOCTaTKoB MO)f(HO OTHeCTH TO, "ITO 3KOHOMHKH nByX pecny6J1HK nOnaJlH B 60Jlee rJly60KHH H npOnOJl)f(HTeJlbHbIH cnan, 4eM O)f(HnaJlOCb 0tPHYHaJlbHO. Cnan B 3Ha4HTeJlbHOH Mepe 6blJl 06YCJlOBJleH BHeWHHMH B03neHCTBHH- MH, CBH3aHHblMH C pacnanOM C3B H COnpOBO)f(naBWHMH ero He6J1aron- lJewCKGR Pecny6.11UKG U C.IIO(JGKUR 147 pmITHblMH H3MeHeHHHMH YCJlOBHH TOprOBJlH, a TaK>Ke B031leHCTBHeM orpaHH4HTeJlbHOH MaKP03KOHOMH4eCKOH nOJlHTHKH. DPH OCYl,1!eCTBJleHHH >KeCTKHX Mep B 1990-1992 IT. npaBH- TeJlbCTBO Y.exOCJlOBaKHH nOJlY4HJlO 60JlbWOe npeHMYl,1!eCTBo 6JlarOlla- pR peWHMOCTH HaCeJleHHR nepe>KHTb 60Jle3HeHHblH nepexollHblH nepHOIl. B OTJlH4He aT IlPyrHx nepexollHblX 3KOHOMHK, B Y.eXOCJlOBa- KHH npaKTH4eCKH He 6blJlO 3a6aCTOBOK HJlH COYHaJlbHblX BOJlHeHHH. Pa31leJleHHe Y.eXOCJlOBaKHH B .fIHBape 1993 r. Ha Y.ewcKYIO H CJlOBau- KYIO pecny6JlHKH 4aCTH4HO 6blJlO pe3YJlbTaTOM pa3JlH4H.fI BO B3rJlRilaX IlBYX npaBHTeJlbCTB Ha npoBollHMYIO 3KOHOMH4eCKYIO nOJlHTHKY. Y.ewcKoe npaBHTeJlbCTBO npOBOIlHJlO cpaBHHTeJlbHO >KeCTKYIO orpaHH- 4HTeJlbHYIO KpeIlHTHO-lleHe>KHYIO H 61OIl>KeTHO-HaJlOroBYIO nOJlHTHKY H npHJlO>KHJlO YCHJlH.fI IlJlR 3aBepWeHH.fI npouecca npHBaTH3aYHH C nOMOl,1!blO BaY4epHoH CHCTeMbl. CJlOBaUKOe npaBHTeJlbCTBO npelln04JlO 60Jlee MHrKYIO MaKp03KOHOMH4eCKYIO nOJlHTHKy;npHMeHeHHe KOJlH4eC- TBeHHblX orpaHH4eHHH BMeCTO HCnOJlb30BaHHR HaJlOrOBblX, ueHOBblX H TapmpHblx HHCTpYMeHTOB; H OTllaJlO npHopHTeT 60Jlee TpallHUHoHHblM MeTOllaM npHBaTH3aYHH. YPOBEHb 3APABOTH0l1 DJlAThI. KaK MO>KHO BHlleTb H3 naHHblX a HOMHHaJlbHOH 3apa60THoH nJlaTe H 3aHHTOCTH, npHBeneHHblX B Ta6JlHue 3-1, npennpHHTHH oTpearnpOBaJIH Ha nOJlHTHKY H BHeWHHe B03neHCTBHR, coxpaHHB peaJlbHYIO 3apa60THYIO nJlaTY HH3KOH. HOMHHaJlbHble pacxollbl Ha OnJIaTY TpYlla B nepBoH nOJlOBHHe 1991 r. BblPOCJlH ropa3nO MeHbwe. 4eM YCTaflOBJleHHblH TpeXCTopOHHHM COrJlaWeHHeM HopMaTHB, H JlHWb BO BTOPOH nOJlOBHHe 1991 r. paCT pacxolloB Ha OnJlaTY Tpyna Ha4aJI npH6JlH>KaTbC.fI K ypOBHIO HopMaTH- 11 Ba. Ha ypoBHe npennpH.fITHH nepBOHa~laJlbHblH 3aMellJleHHblH paCT 06bRCHRJlC.fI >KeJlaHHeM npO~COI030B. allMHHHCTpaYHH H pa60THHKOB orpaHH4HTb 4HCJlO YBOJlbHeHHH B nepBOHa4aJlbHblH nepHOll Heonpelle- JleHHOCTH. Kal< TOJlblKeT 6blTb 1l0CTHrHYTO 3anpeTOM Ha HaeM HOBblX pa60THH- IIY.T06bl Bbl4HCJlHTb paCT paCXOllOB Ha OnJlaTY TpYlla B npoyeHTax HCXOll.fl H3 llaHHblX Ta6JlHUbi 3-1, npocYMMHpYHTe pacT cpellHero HOMHHaJlbHorO 3apa6oTKa H 3aHHTOCTH B npoyeHTax. 148 Be3pa6omutja, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyila KOB, pa6OTalOlJ.lHX no BpeMeHHblM KOHTpaKTaM, OHH CTaJlH HaCTaHBaTb Ha nOBblweHHH OnJlaTbl TpYJla. B 1991 r. B YCJlOBHHX 6blCTpOrO pOCTa HHq,JlH!,!HH Tpe60BaHHH nOBblCHTb 3apa60THYlO nJlary. eCTeCTBeHHO, YCHJlHBaJlHcb. OJlHaKO, KaK OTMet.JaJlOCb Bblwe, Tpe60BaHHH npoq,colO- 30B H pa60t.JHx 6blJlH 6e3pe3YJlbTaTHbl, TaK KaK peaJlbHaH 3apa60THaH nJlaTa pe3Ko ynaJla B 1990-1991 IT., JlHWb t.JaCTHt.JHO OTBOeBaJla npe>KHHe n03H!,!HH B 1992 r. H pocJla TeMH >Ke TeMnaMH, t.JTO H HHq,JlH!,!HH B 1993 r. TaKHM 06pa30M, 3a BeCb nepHOJl 1990-1992 IT. peaJlbHaH 3apa60THaH nJlaTa CHJlbHO ynaJla. OnJIATA TPY.D:A B PECnY6JII1KAX no OTP ACJIRM 11 flPE.D:nPI1R- Tl1RM. 113yqeHHe JlaHHblX 0 3apa60THOH nJlaTe B 28 OTpaCJlHX, no KOTOPblM CTaTHCTHt.JeCKHe ynpaBJleHHH npeJloCTaBJlHJlH JlaHHble JlO 1991 r. nOKa3aJlO, t.JTO CpeJlHHH pa3HH!,!a B OnJlaTe TpYJla, cYlJ.leCTBo- BaBwaH JlO peBOJlIO!,!HH 1989 r., 6blJla JleHCTBHTeJlbHO 3Iiat.JHTeJlbHOH, H OTHoweHHe HaH60JlbWeH CpeJlHeH 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl K HaHMeHbweH B 1989 r. COCTaBJlHJlO 1,62 B '-IewcKoH Pecny6JlHKe H 1,54 B CJlOBa!,!- KOH Pecny6JlHKe. B 1990 r. OTHoweHHe OCTaJlOCb npe>KHHM B CJlOBa- KHH H JleHCTBHTeJlbHO cOKpaTHJlOCb JlO 1,55 B '-IewcKoH Pecny6JlHKe. B 1991 r., OJlHaKO, 3TO OTHoweHHe YBeJlHt.JHJlOCb JlO 1,73 B '-IP H JlO 1,77 B CPo CTaTHCTHt.JecKHe ynpaBJleHHH B 1992 r. H3MeHHJlH CBOIO KJlaCcHq,HKa!,!HIO OTpaCJleH, n03ToMY nOJlHOCTblO conOCTaBHMblX JlaHHblX 3a 1992 r. H 60Jlee n03JlHHe rOJlbl nOJlyqHTb HeJlb3H. TeM He MeHee JlaHHble, nOJlyqeHHble Ha OCHOBe HOBOH OTpaCJleBOH KJlaCCHq,H- Ka!,!HH (OKEC) nOKa3blBalOT, t.JTO B 1992 r. OTHoweHHe HaH60JlbWeH CpeJlHeH OTpaCJleBOH 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl K HaHMeHbweH nOJlCKot.JHJlO JlO 2,41 B '-IewcKHx 3eMJlHX H JlO 2,21 B CJlOBaKHH. TaKHM o6pa30M, no Mepe Hat.JaJla oCYlI!ecTBJleHHH npo!,!ecca nepexoJla. CTaJlO Ha6JllOJlaTbcH YBeJlHt.JeHHe pa3pblBa Me)KJlY HaHMeHbweH H HaH60JlbWeH cpeJlHeH OTpaCJleBOH 3apa60THoH nJlaToH. B OTJlHt.JHe OT pa3JlHt.JHH B OTpaCJleBblX YPOBHHX OnJlaTbl TpYJla, KOMMYHHcTHt.JecKoMY pe>KHMY YJlaBaJlOCb coxpaHRTb ot.JeHb He60JlbWOe (2-3%%) pa3JlHt.JHe B ypoBHe OnJlaTbl TPYJla B JlBYX pecny6JlHKax. 3TO pa3JlHt.JHe OCTaBaJlOCb HeH3MeHHbiM npaKTHt.JecKH BeCb nepHOJl C 1989 r. no 1991 r., H TOJlbKO B 1992 r. MO>KHO 6blJlO Ha6JllOJlaTb nORBJleHHe 5-npo!,!eHTHoH pa3HH!,!bl Me)KJlY CpeJlHeH 3apa6OTHoH nJlaTOH B '-IexHH H CJlOBaKHH. CpaBHeHHR Me)KJly JlBYMH pecny6JlHKaMH no Ka)KJlOH H3 OTpaCJleH nOKa3b1Ba1OT, t.JTO Ha 60Jlee Jle3arpernpOBaH- HOM ypOBHe B !,!eJlOM Ha6JllOJlaJlaCb Ta >Ke TeHJleH!,!HR. BbIBOJlbl, nOJly"t.JeHHble Ha YPOBHe OTpaCJleH, JlOnOJlHeHbl JlaHHblMH Ha ypOBHe npeJlnpHHTHH, nOJlYt.JeHHbIMH B $eJlepaJlbHOM tfewC1WR Pecny6.1lulW U C.IlO(JaKUR 149 CTaTHCTH4eCKOM YnpaBJIeHHH, KOTOpble npHBeneHbl B Ta6m1Ue 3-2. B 3TOH Ta6JIHue nOKa3aHO H3MeHeHHe cpenHero pa3Mepa 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl B nByx pecny6JIHKaX C nepBoro KBapTaJIa 1989 r. no BTOpOn KBapTaJI 1992 r. KaK nOKa3blBalOT CTaTHCTH4eCKHe pac4eTbl, 3a HCKJII04eHHeM ce30HHbiX KOJIe6aHHH, TaKHX KaK BblnJIaTa 4aCTH npH6blJIH BO BTOPOM KBapTaJIe, pa3Mep cpenHeH 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl B nByx pecny6JIHKaX H3MeHflJICfI npaKTH4eCKH napaJIJIeJIbHO, OCTaaaficb a npeneJIax 50%-oro KOpHnOpa 60JIbWYJO 4aCTb 3Toro nepHona. Ta6JIHua 3-2 TaKJKe nOKa3bIBaeT, 4TO K03CPCPHUHeHTbi aapHaUHH 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl a nayx pecny6JIHKaX OCTaaaJIHCb cpaBHHMbIMH. )laHHble Ha ypoBHe npennpHflTHH nOKa3blBalOT, 4TO 3a nepHOn C I KB. 1989 r. no II KB. 1992 r. HH cpenHee, HH nHcnepcHfi 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl B nByx pecny6JIHKaX 3Ha4HTeJIbHO He H3MeHflJIHCb. TaKHM 06pa30M, Bbiwenepe4HCJIeHHble cpaKTbI n03a0Jl1tlOT 3aKJII04HTb, 4TO HH 3KOHOMH4eCKafi nOJIHTHKa, HH BHeWHHe B03neH- CTBHfI He H3MeHHJIH OTHOCHTeJIbHOrO cpenHero pa3Mepa OnJIaTbl Tpyna Hero nHcnepCHIO no nBYM pecny6JIHKaM no KOHua 1992 r. HenOBOJIb- CTBO pecpopMaMH 06qJeCTBa B CJIOBaKHH, KOTopoe, KaK C4HTalOT, BHeCJIO BKJIan B pa3neneHHe ~eXOCJIOBaKHH B KOHue 1992 r., TaKHM 06pa30M, He CBfl3aHO C paCTYqJeH pa3HHueH B OnJIaTe Tpyna no OTPaCJIfiM B CJIOBaKHH HJIH MeJK.QY pecny6JIHKaMH. CKopee OHO MOrJIO B03HI1KHYTb B OCHOBHOM B pe3YJIbTaTe nanalOqJeH peaJIbHOH 3apa60T- HOM nJIaTbl H 6blCTPO paCTYqJero ypoaHfI 6e3pa60THt!bl (CM. HI1JKe). 3APABOTHAR TInATA M OBPA30BAHME. TpanHt!HoHHoe MHeHl1e, pacnpoCTpaHeHHoe cpenH H3Y4alOqJHx pblHKH Tpyna B ueHTpaJIH30BaH- HO nJIaHHpyeMblx 3KoHoMHKax, 3aKJII04aJIOCb B TOM, 4TO ypOBeHb OnJIaTbl Tpyna B HenOCTaT04HOH CTeneHH oTPaJKaJI nOJIY4eHHoe 06pa30BaHHe. 3TO npennOJIOJKeHHe OT4aCTH onpOBepraeTCfI TeM cpaKTOM, 4TO B 1988 r. pa3JlH4He B CpenHeH 3apa60THoH nJIaTe MeiKJlY BblnycKHHKaMH YHHBepcHTeToB H cpenHeH (HenOJIHOH BblClllen) WKOJIbl COCTaBJIflJIO 58,4%, Torna KaK TO JKe pa3JIH4He MeJKny BblnYCKHHKaMH YHHBepCHTeTOB H cpenHeH npocpeCCHOHaJIbHOH HJIH nOJIHOH cpenHeH WKOJIbl COCTaBJIflJIO 28,6% (Ta6mllla 3-3). nOCJIenHHn nOKa3aTeJIb no aeJIH4HHe aHaJIOrH4eH TaKoMY JKe nOKa3aTeJIIO, cYqJecTBoBaallleMY B CiliA B 70-e IT. )lJIfi pa604Hx-MYJK4HH C nflTHJIeTHHM onblTOM pa60Tbi 3TO pa3JIH4He B CiliA COCTaBJIflJIO 31% B 1973 r. 11 22% B 1979 r. (Bound and Johnson, 1992 r.). OnHaKo He06xonHMO 3aMeTHTb, 4TO H3- 3a 04eHb CHJIbHblX H3MeHeHHH B OTHOCHTeJIbHOM ypoBHe 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl B CiliA, npOH30lllenWHX B 80-e IT., 3TOT JKe nOKa3aTeJIb B 1988 r. COCTaBJIfiJI 66%. KapTHHa, KOTopafl BblPHcoBblBaeTcH B 150 Be:Jpa6omulJa, nepecmpou.Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U PblHO'K mpyoa OTHOllleHHH 06pa30BaHH.R H 3apa6OTHOH nllaTbl B npeapeBOlllOUHOHHOH '1exoclloBaKHH, roBOPHT 0 TOM, 4TO pa3HHua B OnllaTe Tpyaa B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT 06pa30BaHH.R 6bllla aOBOllbHO 3Ha4HTellbHOH. Ta611Hua 3-2. CpeaH.R.R BallOBa.R 3apa6oTHa.R nllaTa B MeC.RU Ha 4elllCKHX H CllOBaUKHX npennpH.RTH.RX, I KB. 1989 - II KB. 1992 IT. (6 mblC. 'KPOH) 'l.felllCKa.R Pecny611HKa CllOBaUKa.R Pecny611HKa ITepfioll Cpell- CKO' CKO I cpell- CpellHee CKO CKOI Hee Hee cpellHee I KB. 1989 r. 2.97 0.28 0,095 2,94 0.29 0,098 11 KB. 1989 r. 4,33 0.31 0,071 3.77 0,31 0,081 m KB. 1989 r. 3.75 0,31 0,083 3.77 0,32 0.084 IV KB. 1989 r. 3.34 0,30 0,091 3.32 0,31 0.094 I KB. 1990 r. 3,07 0,29 0.094 3,07 0,30 0.097 JJ KB. 1990 r. 4.41 0,31 0.071 3,86 0.31 0.081 m KB. 1990 r. 3,86 0,32 0,083 3,88 0.33 0,084 IV KB. 1990 r. 3.72 0,21 0,056 3,62 0,21 0,057 I KB. 1991 r. 3.46 0.31 0,090 3,35 0,32 0,096 II KB. 1991 r. 3.93 0,34 0.087 3,69 0.36 0.096 HI KB. 1991 r. 4.14 0.36 0,086 4.00 0.39 0.097 IV KB. 1991 r. 4.76 0.22 0,047 4.56 0,22 0,048 1 KB. 1992 r. 3,91 0,48 0,123 3,97 0,46 0,116 11 KB. 1992 r. 4.72 0,24 0,050 4,61 0,23 0,051 s. CKO ~ Cpe.ll.Hce KBSAPATH'lCCKOO OTKJlOHeHHe, 14CTOllHHK: c;z.c.II.epaJU.Hoe CTATHCTH"IeCl{Oe YnpaBneHHe ~ ,I1aHIiLie no BUN npe,lUlpn.HH%", Pe3YllbTaTbi aByx 0630POB, npOBeaeHHblX CllenepallbHblM MHHHCTepCTBOM Tpyna B 1988 H 1991 rr. rOBOp.RT 0 TOM, 4TO CB.R3aH- Hble C ypOBHeM 06pa30BaHH.R pa311H4H.R B OnllaTe Tpyna B'l.fexoclloBa- KHH MOrllH YBellH4HTbC.R co BpeMeHH peBOlllOUHH 1989 r. KaK MO)f(HO BHneTb H3 Ta611HY 1988 r. BbmYCKHHK YHHBepCHTeTa 3-3 H 3-4, B 3apa6aTbiBall npH611H3HTellbHO Ha 58% 6011bllle, 4eM cpenHHH Bbmyc- KHHK cpeaHeH WKOllbl. Toraa KaK B 1991 r. 3Ta pa3HHua COCTaBll.Rlla 63%. v13Y4eHHe aaHHblX 0 cpenHeM 3apa6oTKe no Ka)f(aOH H3 o6pa30Ba- TellbHblX rpynn n03BOll.ReT npeanOllO)f(HTb, 4TO B OCHOBHOM BblHrpblBa- llH BbmYCKHHKH YHHBepcHTeToB, 3apa6aTbiBaH Ha 40% 6011bllle o6l1.!eH cpeaHeH 3apa6oTHoH nllaTbl B 1991 r. no cpaBHeHHIO C 32% B 1988 r. BbmycKHHKH npo¢eccHoHallbHblx y4HllHlI.! Tep.RllH, 3apa6aTblBa.R llHlllb lfew.CIWR Pecny6.1/ww U C.l/O(JaKUR 151 97% 0'1' 061!!eH CpellHeH 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl B 1991 r. no cpaBHeHHIO co 102,5% B 1988 r. nOCJIellHRR cHTyayHR, nO-BHllHMOMY, 6blJIa Bbl3BaHa 04eHb pe3KHM CHH)f(eHHeM OTHOCHTeJIbHOH 3apa60THoH nJIaTbI BblnYCKHHKOB npocpeccHOHaJIbHbIX Y4HJIHIJ! B MellHUHHe, XOTR BO MHornx llPyrnx OTpaCJIHX Ha6JIIOllaJIOCb JIHWb He60JIbWOe CHH)f(eHHe. Pe3YJIbTaTbI YKa3bIBalOT Ha pOCT OTlla4H 0'1' 4eJIOBe4eCKoro KanHTaJIa. cBR3aHHbIH C JIH6epaJIH3aUHeH 3KOHOMHKH H, BepoHTHo, TaK)f(e HeCHM- MeTpH4HbIM npHMeHeHHeM peryJIHpOBaHHH 3apa 60THOH nJIaTbI pa604Hx, no cpaBHeH!,1O C )f(aJIOBaHHeM CJIY)f(aIJ!Hx. 3APABOTHAR nJIATA HA nPEJlnpI1RTI1RX PA3HbIX TI1nOB COBCTBEHHOCTI1. B Ta6JII1lJ.e 3-5 npHBelleHa HeKOTopaH HHcpopMa- UHH 06 H3MeHeHHH 3apa60THoH nJIaTbI B cpHpMax pa3Horo THna c06CTBeHHoCTH no llaHHblM ctlellepaJIbHOrO CTaTHCTH4eCKoro YnpaBJIe- HHR. nepBblH HHTepecHblH BbIBOll 3aKJII04aeTCR B TOM, 4'1'0 4aCTHbie CPHPMbI 06bI4HO nJIaTHJIH B cpeJ:\HeM HeMHoro (Ha 0-10%) 60JIbWYIO 3apa60THYIO nJIaTY, 4eM rocYllapCTBeHHble. OJ:\HaKo cpellH caMHX 4aCTHbiX npeJ:\npHHTHH 4aCTHbie KopnopaUHH nJIaTHJIH cYlJ!eCTBeHHo 60JIbWe, 4eM 4aCTHbie npellnpHHHMaTeJIH. 3a HCKJII04eHHeM I KB. 1991 r., 4aCTHbie npellnpHHHMaTeJIH nJIaTHJIH no KpaHHeH Mepe Ha 10- 20%% MeHbwe, 4eM rocYllapCTBeHHble npeJ:\npHHTHR H 4aCTHbie KopnopaUHH. TaKHM 06pa30M, 4aCTHbie npeJ:\npHHHMaTeJIH, BMeCTe C CeJIbCKOX03HHCTBeHHblMH KoonepaTHBaMH H MYHHUHnaJIbHblMH npellnpHRTHRMH, nJIaTHJIH MeHbwe Bcex OCTaJlbHblX THnOB npeJ:\npHR- nIH. ECJIH Y4eCTb HaTypaJIbHble BbInJIaTbI B CeJIbCKOX03HHCTBeHHbix KoonepaTHBax, 4aCTHbie npellnpHHHMaTeJIH H MYHHYHnaJIbHble npeJ:\npHHTHR OKa)f(YTCR TeMH THnaMH npellnpHRTHH, KOTopble BblnJIa4HBaJIH caMYIO HH3KYIO 3apa60THYIO nJIaTY B 3KOHOMHKe. 3'1'0'1' BblBOll cooTBeTCTByeT BbIBOJ:\Y, ClleJIaHHoMY Swanson, and Webster (1992, c.28) 0 TOM, 4'1'0 ((60JIbWHHCTBO [4aCTHbIX] npellnpHHHMaTeJIeH YCTaHaBJIHBalOT )f(aJIOBaHHe nYTeM Y4eTa MHHHMaJIbHOH H npHHRTOH B llaHHOH OTpaCJIH 3apa60THOH nJIaThI, a TaK)f(e oyeHKH onblTa H npOH3BOJ:\HTeJIbHOCTH pa60THHKa)). ctlHPMbl, YeJIHKOM npHHallJIe)f(alJ!He HHOCTpaHHOMY KanHTaJIY, BbInJIa4HBaJIH 3Ha4HTeJIbHO 60JIbWe, H 3'1'0 cOBnallaJIO C HX nOJIHTHKOH OnJIaTbl TpYJ:\a, Ha6JIIOllaeMOH B llPyrnx CTpaHax. OIlHaKO COBMeCTHble npeJ:\npHRTHH C HHOCTpaHHblMH napTHepaMH 6blJIH ropa3110 60JIee KOHcepBaTHBHblMH H nJIaTWJIH 3apa60THYIO nJIaTY HH)f(e cpeJ:\HeA. 152 5e3pa6omulJa, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyi:Ja Ta6nHua 3-3. CpenHHH BanOBaH 3apa60THaH nnaTa pa60THHKOB B t..{exocnoBaKHH no pa3nHtJHbiM KaTeropHHM 06pa30BaHHH H no OTpac- nHM npoMblwneHHoCTH B HIOHe 1988 r. B KPOH&X YpoBeHb 06p&30BaHH.II* OTP&eJlb Bcero 1 2 3 4 Bcero 3196 2660 3275 3273 4213 CenbcKoe X03.11HCTBO 3162 2882 3320 3214 4075 IIpoMblwneHHocTb 3265 2706 3413 3450 4439 rOpHOA06blBalOw&1I 4689 3833 4924 4915 6180 MeTannyprnqecKaIl 3741 3069 3858 3969 5137 XHMHqeCK&1I 3512 2921 3552 3695 4488 MawHHocTpoeHHe 3226 2569 3341 3308 4155 3neKTpOTeXHHqeCKa.ll 3064 2456 3118 3181 4033 TeKCTHnbH&.II 2704 2579 2766 3073 4129 IIHweBa.ll 2811 2390 2946 3150 4249 CTpoHTenbCTBo 3444 3004 3523 3490 4426 TpaHcnopT 3317 3173 3300 3510 4125 ToproBn.ll 2667 2156 2600 3019 4282 06pa30BaHHe 3037 2234 2708 3910 Yqpe)KJ:IeHH.II 3ApaBoox- 2879 2055 2569 2749 3959 paHeHH.II IiHAeKc Bcero 100 83.2 102.5 102,4 131.8 CenbcKoe X03.11HCTBO 100 91,1 105,0 101,6 128,9 IIpoMblwneHHoCTb 100 82,9 104.5 105,7 136,0 ropHOAo6blBalOwa.ll 100 81,7 105,0 104,8 131,8 MeTannyprnqeCK&.II 100 82,0 103,1 106,1 137,3 XHMHqeCKali 100 83,2 101,1 105,2 127,8 MawHHoCTpoeHHe 100 79,6 103,6 102,5 138,8 3neKTpoTeXHHQeCKa.ll 100 80,2 101,8 103,8 131,6 TeKCTHnbHali 100 95,4 102,3 113,6 152,7 IIHweB&.II 100 85,0 104,8 112,0 151,2 CTpoHTenbcTBo 100 87,2 102,3 101,3 128,5 TpaHcnopT 100 95,7 99,5 105,8 124,3 ToproM.II 100 80,8 97,5 113,2 160,5 06pa30BaHHe 100 73,6 89,2 128,7 YQpe)KJ:IeHH.II 3ApaBoox- 100 71,4 89,2 95,5 137,5 paHeHHII - ih'T )l"'HbIX •. YpoBeHb 06p.30....'u· uae<:lIHIlHpO.a.a <.neJlYlOIUHM 06p''''!oI' I - cpe,llHee 06puo1laHHe (8-9 lleT 06)"1011 ••) 2 • TeXllH'leCltoelHenQ!lHoe Bblcwee (elIte 2-4 ro,u ooyqCflHK) 3" HeOOJIHoe. Dlcwee OOpa30aaHHe (4 ro.u 06yqeHHI C 33.mHTOH ,IUmJIOMa) .. * BbJCWee 06pa30BaHHe (m.mY~HHKH YHHBepcHTeToB). HCTO'DlHK: 'Ie eTaTHCTH~'CKHii cOOPUHK UIlO 1989 r. lfeUlCKaR Pecny6.1luKa U C.Ilo(faKuR 153 Ta6~Hua 3-4. CpeaHHH BanOBaH 3apa6oTHaH nnaTa pa6oTHHKOB B YexocnoBaKHH no pa3nH4HbIM KaTeropHHM 06pa30BaHHH H no oTpac- nHM npoMblwneHHoCTH B HIOHe 1991 r. B KpOHax YposeHb o6pa30saHHll a OrpaCJlb Bcero 1 2 3 4 Bcero 3982 3402 3856 4073 5560 CeJlbCKOe X0311HCTSO 3694 3519 3760 3563 4674 ~aUIHHocTpoeHHe 4174 3426 4277 4279 5136 3J1eKTpOTeXHHtIeCKall 3423 2947 3424 3901 4660 TeKCTHJlbHaH 3471 3307 3511 3883 3475 rrH~esall 4106 3844 4187 4110 5305 TpaHcnopT 4220 4076 4261 4307 4510 ToprosJlII 3302 2784 3283 3849 5244 06pa3OBaHHe 4700 266 3357 3591 5431 YtIpell\7l:eHHII 3Apasoox- 4619 3085 3118 4219 6181 paHeHHII I1HAeKc Bcero 100 85,4 96.8 102.3 139.6 CellbcKoe XO:.3S1HCTBO 100 95.3 101.8 96,4 126.5 ~aUIHHoCTpoeHHe 100 82.1 102.5 102.5 123.7 3J1eKTpOTeXHHtIeCKall 100 86.1 100,0 114.0 136.1 TeKCTHJlbHall 100 95.3 101,2 111.9 100.1 rrH~eBall 100 93.6 102.0 100.1 129,2 TpaHcnopT 100 96.6 101,0 102.1 106,9 TOproBJlII 100 84.3 99,4 116.6 158.8 06pa30saHHe 100 56.6 7l,4 76,4 115.6 YtIpell\7l:eHHlI :.3ApaSOox- 100 66.8 67.5 91.3 133.8 paHeHHII a. YpoBCHb OOPaJOBaHIU uaCClI$lu.tnpOBaH cn:e,lij'lOW;KM 06PaJOM: 1 * cpe)Ulee 06pa30BaHHe (8~9 neT 06yqCHIU) 2 - TeXHINe.cKocmenOJIHoc BbICUlee (CUlt 2-4 ro,IJ.a 06Y'JeHHJI) 3 - HenOJIHoe BbICmee 06pa30BaHKe (4 ro,lta ooyqeHIDI c sam.HTOil ,IJ,JlIlJJoMa) 4· •• !CWee 06pa30.""Be ( ••IllYCKIIIIIu Iltl. n KI. mI_. IV EI. I J:I. lu.I991 r. 0 ... Il u. 1991 r. llIu. III ... I99lr. IV u. ~Ir. Bcero 3341 3692 3792 4563 4059 121.54607 124,84628 122.05461 119.7 rOCYAap<:TBeHHloIe opraHH3a~H 3378 3720 3832 4643 4098 121,34625 124,34639 121.15523 119,0 roe npe.t\npHRTHR 3342 3673 3725 4395 4150 120,94581 124,74470 120,05325 121,2 510jVKeTHhie OpraHH3aI.\HH 2871 3347 3601 4752 3536 123,24271 127,64632 128,65518 116.1 qaCTH'IHo 61OWtCeTHIoIe OPraJlH3&I.\HII 2982 3423 3638 4573 3782 126.84303 125,74575 125,85423 118,6 npo'lile 3701 4144 4093 4852 4515 122,05054 122,04830 118,05723 118,0 Koonepa THJIIoI 2814 3089 3016 3306 3298 117,23688 119,43725 123.54180 126,4 qaCTHhie 3581 3904 4093 4697 4047 113,04907 125,75033 123,05525 117.6 IOpHAH'IecKJle nHI.\&. 3604 3910 4125 4720 4093 113.64928 126,05071 123,05558 117.6 qllCTllble n~pHHHMaTenH 3174 2835 3312 3743 3519 110,93872 136,64361 131,74942 132.0 MYK1l~nam.H.R 006cTBeHROCTh 2804 2973 3133 3842 3446 122.93767 126,73964 126.54338 112.9 HHOCTpaHHhle .pHPMIoI 3683 7082 4975 5452 4810 130,66950 98.16491 130.56935 127,2 COBMecTHwenpeAnpHRTHR 3244 3702 3487 4342 4029 124.24497 121.54334 124,35504 126.8 CenIoeKOx03RiiCTBeHHWe KOOnepaTHBIoI2 728 2961 3077 3597 3023 110,83362 113.53632 118.04029 112.0 156 Be3pa6omul4a, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U pbmOK mpyfJa H Ha ypoBHe 2 000 KpOH B MecSll.l nnSl pa6oTHHKOB, nonyqaIOIJ!Hx nOMecSl4HYIO onnaTY. I1HBanHnbl, HMeIOIJ!He npaBo Ha «4aCTH4HYIO neHCHIO no HHBanHnHOCTH», nonyqanH 8,10 KpOH B 4ac HnH 1 500 KpOH B MecSll.l (75% 6a30BoH MHHHManbHoH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl), a HHBanHnbl, HMeIOIJ!He npaBo Ha nonHYIO neHCHIO no HHBanHnHOCTH, nonyqanH nHWb 50% MHHHManbHoH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl. YpoBeHb 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl nponopl.lHoHanbHoH3MeHSlncSlBcooTBeTCTBHHcnpOnon~TenbHocTbIO pa604eH HenenH. Bonee HH3KHH pa3Mep MHHHManbHoH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl Ha ypoBHe 8,10 KpOH B 4ac HnH 1 500 KPOH B MecSlU (75% 6a30BoH MHHHManbHoH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl) 6blJl YCTaHoBneH nnSl pa60THHKOB, He nOCTHnIlHX 16 neT. Bonee Toro, HM He pa3pewanOCb pa60TaTb 60nee 33 4aCOB B HenenIO. B SlHBape 1992 r. 6a30BaSl MHHHManbHaSl 3apa6oTHaSl nnaTa 6bIna ysenH4eHa no 2 200 KpOH B MeClIl.l (npH nponomKHTenbHocTH pa604eH HeneJIH B 42,S 4aca) HnH 123 KPOHbl B 4ac. I1HBanHnbl npOnOn)f(anH nonyqaTb 75% H 50% 6a30BoH MHHHManbHOH CTaBKH, B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT Toro, HMenH nH OliH npaBo Ha 4aCTH4HYIO HnH nonHYIO neHCHlO, KaK YKa3blBanocb Bblwe. HOBblH MHHHMyM B 75% 6a30BoH MHHHManbHoH CTaBKH 6bln YCTaHoBneH nnll pa6OTHHKoB B B03paCTe OT 16 no 18 neT, a nJHI pa60THHKOB Mnanwe 16 neT MHHHManbHa.R 3apa6oTHaSl nnaTa 6blna YCTaHOBneHa Ha ypOBHe Bcero 50% 6a30BoH MHHHManbHoH CTaBKH. nocne pa3neneHHSI nBYX pecny6nHK 4eWCKoe npaBHTenbcTBo B 1993 r. H Ha4ane 1994 r. coxpaHSlno MHHHMyM 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl paBHblM 2 200 KpOH. 3TO npHBeno K TOMY, 4TO MHHHManbHaSl 3apa6oT- Hall nnaTa CTana HH)f(e o$HUHanbHoro npO)f(HT04HOro MHHHMYMa YewcKoH Pecny6nHKH. CnoBaKH, HanpoTHB, B oKT1I6pe 1993 r. nOBblCHnH MHHHManbHYIO CTaBKY onnaTbl TPyna no 2 450 KPOH, 4T06bl OHa OCTaBanaCb Bblwe npO)KHT04Horo YPOBHSI nnSl CnOBaKHH. B peanbHOM Bblpa)KeHHH B 1992-1992 rr. H Ha4ane 1993 r. MHHHManbHall 3apa6oTHaSl nnaTa 6blJla npaKTH4eCKH HeH3MeHHoH, MO)KeT, cnema CHH3HnaCb. B 1991 r. MHHHManbHaSl 3apa6oTHaSl nnaTa COCTaBnllna npHMepHo 52% cpenHeH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl (3 843 KpOHbl), Torna KaK B 1992 r. OHa COCTaBnllna Y)f(e 50,9% cpenHeH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl (4 315 KpOH). B enHHCTBeHHOM 3MnHpH4ecKoM HccnenOBaHHH MHHHManbHoH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl Buchitkova (1993) Hcnonb30BanHCb naHHble 3a IV KB. 1992 r. no BbI60pKe H3 76 (KPynHblx rocynapcTBeHHblx) npennpHSlTHH YewcKoH Pecny6nHKH C 061J!HM 4HcnOM pa6oTHHKOB 89237 4enOBeK. no ::ITOH Bbl60pKe cpenHe4aCOBall onnaTa Tpyna COCTaBHna 31,37 KPOHbl, TaKHM o6pa30M MHHHManbHall 3apa6oTHall TfeUlcx:aR. Pecny6,/lUKa U C,/lo{faKUR. 157 nnaTa COCTaBJ11ma Bcero 38,2% OT cpeJlHeH no Bbl60pKe. Buchitkova 06HapY)l{Hna, 4TO nHWb 0,23% pa604Hx 3apa6aTbiBallO MeHee 12 KpOH B 4ac H 0,32% 3apa6aTbiBano 12-13 KPOH B 4ac. TaKHM 06pa30M, BHJlHMO, 3TH npeJtnPHflTHfl He 6blnH BblHY>KJleHbl HnH 3aHHTepeCOBaHbi B TOM, 4T06bl nnaTHTb 3apa60THYlO nnaTY HHiKe ypOBHfl MHHHMallbHOH. OJlHaKO Ha6nlOJlanHCb pa3nH4Hfl no JleMorpaqlH4ecKHM xapaKTepHCTH- KaM, n03BonfllOIyHe CJlenaTb BblBOJl 0 TOM, 4TO MonOJlble pa60THHKH H iKeHIyHHbl, BepOflTHO, 4aIye nonY4alOT 60nee HH3KYlO 3apa60THYlO nnaTY· Ta6nHua 3-6. OTHoweHHe onnaTbl TPYJla iKeHy'!HH K onnaTe TPYJla MYiK4HH B l..{exocnoBaKHH no OTpacnflM ((1 nepYeHmax). 1988 1991 YpoBeHb o6pa30BaHHR' Yp0BeHb 06pa30BaHHR' OTpaClIb 'Bcero 1 2 3 4 Dcero 1 2 3 4 Bcero 71 72 69 73 81 76 78 74 85 85 CellbCKOe X03RHCTBO 81 84 83 74 76 84 83 86 81 n poMblWlIeHHOCTb 68 74 67 70 76 ropHo~o6b1BalOlqaR 55 59 54 59 69 ~eTallllyprHqeCKaR 66 70 65 69 77 XHMHQeCKaR 69 71 70 71 77 ~awHHoCTpoeHHe 70 77 70 72 79 73 80 311eKTpOTeXHHQecKaR 71 81 72 75 82 78 87 TeKCTHlIbHaR 73. 82 71 71 77 78 84 nHlqeBaR 71 77 71 73 79 69 74 CTpOHTellbCTBO 69 62 68 70 74 TOproBlIR 76 78 80 77 80 82 83 85 89 06pa30BaHHe 73 75 71 85 84 76 85 77 91 82 3~paBooxpaHeHHe 72 73 71 85 83 65 68 81 78 ~M Her .iJ.aJmLIX a~ YpoBCHb o(')pa30BaHKjJ KJl8cceI$HlJ,HpoBaH CJJe.IlYJOlll.HM 06pa30W: I - CPC)I,IICC 06,0308""uc {8-9 "eT o6yqeHRaj 2 - TUllll'ICCKoclllClIOJIHOC ..,cruet (cme 2-4 ro,u 06)"1oouo) 3 - ucnOJluoe III>lewec 06p_BJ\IIUC (4 ro,u 06)"1CHIli e ..mHTon ,JUmJIOMa) 4 - IL'ewee 06pa30BaIIHe (IlI>rnYT, liTO B 1991 r. JlHWb 10,6% pa60THHKOB 6blJlO 3aHRTO JlH60 Ha lIaCTHblX npe.QnpHSlTHSlX, JlH60 HBJlHJlHCb lIaCTHblMH npe.QnpHHHMaTeJlHMH, pa60TalOIYHMH Ha ce6H. 3Ta UHtPpa cYllleCTBeHHo HH)Ke, lIeM 18,8% B "IewcKofi Pecny6JlHKe (Ta6JlHUa 3-8), TPY.QHO CKa3aTb, 03HaliaeT JlH 3TO HepaBeHCTBO TO, liTO B CJlOBaKHH .QOJlSl 3aHHTblX B lIaCTHOM ceKTope 6blJla HH)Ke, nOCKOJlbKY OHO MO)KeT 6blTb pe3YJlbTaTOM HCnOJlb30BaHHH pa3HbiX MeTO.QHK OUeHKH. 3MnHpHlieCKHfi onblT TaK)Ke YKa3blBaeT Ha TO, liTO lIaCTHblfi ceKTOp B YewcKofi Pecny6JlHKe pOC 6blCTpee, lIeM B CJlOBaKHH. Eeapa60THua H ee llHHaMHKa KaK OTMellaJlOCb paHee, 6e3pa60THua B03HHKlla B 06eHX pecny6JlHKaX Ha ypoBHe 0,1% B HHBape 1990 r. YpoBeHb 6e3pa60THUbi OCTaBaJlCSI Ha nOM HH3KOM ypOBHe AO aBryCTa 1990 r., Kor.Qa OH HallaJl 6blCTPO paCTH, H 3TOT pOCT npo.QOJl)KaJlCH BeCb 1991 r. B TelleHHe .QeCHTH MecHueB 1992 r. OH HenpepblBHo na.QaJJ, .£.10 2,6% B YP H 10,4% B CPo B 162 Be3pa6omUl-ja, nepeCmpoi11w 31WHOMU'KU U PblHOK mpyiJa neKa6pe 1993 r. 14,4% TpynoBbIx pecypcoB CnoBaKHH 6bInH 6e3pa60T- HbIMH. 4TO B 4eTbIpe pa3a npeBbIlliano ypoBeHb 6e3pa60TH!!bI B 1.fellicKoH Pecny6nHKe (3,5%). 3TH naHHbIe, eCTeCTBeHHO, 3aCTaBnfllOT 3anaTbCfI BOnpOCOM: n04eMY 6e3pa60TH!!a B CnOBaKHH npeBbICHna 6e3pa60THID' B 1.feXHH? B TO >Ke CaMOe BpeMfI, n04eMY 06I,YHe TeHneH!!HH H3MeHeHHfI ypOBHfI 6e3pa60THI.!bI B nBYX pecny6nHKax 6bInH HaCTOnbKO CXO>KH B 1990- 1993 IT.? BepoflTHo, 60nee Ba>KHbIM flBnfleTCfI TO, n04eMY ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THI.!bl B 1.fellicKoH Pecny6nHKe HaCTOnbKO HH30K, He TonbKO no cpaBHeHHIO CO CnOBaKHeH, HO H no cpaBHeHHIO C npyrHMH !;JeHTpanbHO- H BOCT04HoeBponeHcKHMH (USE) CTpaHaMH. Boed (1994, Ta6nH!!a 1) nOKa3an, 4TO B 1990-1992 IT. ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THI.!bl B 1.fexHH 6bIn HH>Ke CpenHero ypOBHfI 6e3pa60THI.!bI B CTpaHax 03CP, Torna KaK ypoBeHb 6e3pa60TH!!bl B CnoBaKHH 6bIn conOCTaBHM C ypoBHeM 6e3pa60THI.!bI B BonrapHH, BeHrpHH H nonbllIe. f/JaKmopbl, 06'bRCHRK>UJue o6UJue 1.lepmbl meHiJeHlJUU pa3tJumuR 6e3pa6o- mUlJbl tJ o6eux pecny6.1luKax 06ll!.aflKapTHHa paCTYll!.eH 6e3pa60TH!!bl B 1990-1992 IT., naneHHlI ee ypOBHlI B 1992 r. H nocnenYJOl,Yero ee pOCTa B 1993 r. Ha6nlOnanacb KaK B 1.fP, TaK H B CP, H MO>KeT 6bITb B 3Ha4HTenbHoH Mepe 06'bflCHeHa TpeMSI cpalKHO BHneTb H3 Ta6nHUbl 3-1, 6bICTPblH pOCT 6e3pa60THYbl B 1991 r. MO>KeT 6blTb BO MHorOM 06'bflCHeH 04eHb 3Ha4HTenbHblM B 3TOM rony naneHH- eM cnpoca Ha nponYKYHIO (-14% B Ka)KJlOH H3 pecny6nHK) - caMoe 60nbllIoe naneHHe cnpoca 3a nepHon1990-1993 IT. 113 Ta6nHI.!bI TaK>Ke BHnHO, 4TO cnOBaKH HcnbITbIBanH cOKpal,YeHHe cnpoca Ha HX npOnYK- I.!HIO H B 1989 H 1990 IT. 3Ta KapTHHa nOnTBep)KJlaeTCSl TaK>Ke H naHHbIMH 0 BHelliHeM cnpoce Ha npOnYKYHIO. 06I,YHH 06'beM 3KcnoPTa CnoBaKHH (oco6eHHo B CTpaHbl C3B) HeMHoro cOKpaTHncfI 3a 1987- 1990 IT., Torna KaK B 1.fellicKoH Pecny6nHKe OH B 3TOT nepHOn HeCKonbKO BbIpOC. Korna B flHBape 1993 r. CTpaHa pa3nenHnacb, 3KOHOMHKa HcnbITana eIJ!e OnHO nOTpflceHHe. Pa3nH4HfI TeMnOB naneHHfI BBn B IfeWCKaJl Pecny6.nw(Q u CJlo(JmCUJl 163 1993 r. TaK:lKe nOMoralOT 06'bJlCHHTb 60J1ee 6blCTpblH POCT 6eapa6OTH- UbI B CJ10BaKHH B 3TOM rOJ:lY. n04eMY :lKe. OJ:lHaKO. ypOBeHb 6eapa60TH- UbI B 1992 r. CHHaHJ1CJI, B TO BpeMJI KaK npOHaBOJ:lCTBO COKpaTHJ10Cb npHMepHO Ha 7'7. B Ka)KJ:lOH Ha pecny6J1HK? ,[lJJJI OTBeTa Ha 3TOT Bonpoc Mbl J:lOJ1:lKHbl paccMoTpeTb nOJ1HTHKY rocYJ:lapCTBa Ha pblHKe TPYJ:la. IIOJ1I1TI1KA HA PblHKE TPY,[(A. KaK Mbl YSHJ:lHM Ha nocJ1eJ:lYlOIJ.1ero nOJ:lp06HOro 06cY)KJ:leHHJI, "lJewCKaJl H CJ10BaUKaJl pecny6J1HKH ocYIlteCTBJ1J1J1H paaJ1H4Hble aKTHBHbIe nporpaMMbl aaHJlTOCTH B J:lOnOJ1HeHHe K naccHBHoH nporpaMMe aaHJlTOCTH (noc06HJI no 6eapa60- TH!,!e), KOTOpaJl onHcaHa HH:lKe. 3J:leCb MbI J1HWb oTMeTHM. 4TO 06YJ,He paCXOJ:lbl Ha 06e 3TH nporpaMMbl MeHJlJ1HCb B 06eHX pecny6J1HKaX napaJ1J1eJ1bHO: B 1992 r. BOapOCJ1H Ha 30'7. H 70'7. B qp H CP COOTBeT- CTBeHHo, H COKpaTHJ1HCb J:l0 ypOBHJI HH:lKe 1991 r. B 1993 r. 3TH HaMeHeHHJI HaXOJ:lJlTCJI B nOJ1HOH OTpH!,!aTeJ1bHOH KOppeJ1J1YHH C ypOBHeM 6eapa60TH!,!bl, KOTOPblH CHHaHJ1CJI B 1992 r. H CHOBa BblpOC B 1993 r. CI1CTEMA nOCOBI111 no BE3P ABOTI1QE. f'ocYJ:lapCTBO npHBeJ10 B J:leHCTBHe CHCTeMY noc06HH no 6eapa60THye npaKTH4eCKH cpaay :lKe nOCJ1e peBOJ1IOYHH, B JlHBape 1990 r. CHCTeMa nOaBOJ1J1J1a Ka)KJ:lOMY YSOJ1eHHOMY, BbmYCKHHKaM WKOJ1 H yxa:lKHBalOYJ,HM aa pOJ:lCTBeHHHKa- MH-HHBaJ1HJ:laMH HJ1H J:leTbMH (J:l0 TpexneTHero BoapaCTa) nOJ1Y4aTb B Te4eHHe OJ:lHOrO rOJ:la noc06He B COOTBeTCTBHH co CJ1eJ:lYlOYJ,eH cxeMOH: a. nepBbIe weCTb MecJlyeB 6ea pa60TbI: 90'7. 4HCToro CpeJ:lHero J:lOX0J:la 4eJJOBeKa aa npeJ:lblJ:lYIJ!HH rOJ:l, eCJ1H OH 6blJ1 YSOJ1eH no npH4HHe peopraHHaaYHH npeJ:lnpHJlTHJI; 65% 4HCToro CpeJ:lHerO J:lOxoJ:la (aa npeJ:lblJ:lYYJ,HH rOJ:l), eCJ1H OH 6blJ1 YBOJ1eH no J:lPymM npH4HHaM; 1 000 KPOH, eCJ1H OH HYJ,eT pa60TY BnepBble. 6. BTopble weCTb MeCJlueB 6ea pa60TbI: 60'7. 4HCToro CpeJ:lHerO J:lOxoJ:la aa npeJ:lblJ:lYlltHH rOJ:l. B. ECJ1H 6eapa6OTHblH npOXOJ:lHT KYPCbl nepenoJ:lrOToBKH - 70'7. 4HCToro CpeJ:lHerO J:l0X0J:la. 3Ta CHCTeMa 6blJ1a OTHOCHTeJ1bHO 6J1arOnpWITHa J:lJ1J1 pa60THHKOB. XOTJI 6blJ1 YCTaHOBJ1eH MHHHMaJ1bHbIH paaMep noc06HJI (1 000 KpOH) J:lJ1J1 Tex, KTO npe)KJ:le He pa60TaJ1, He 6blJ10 YCTaHOBJ1eHO MaKCHMaJ1b- Horo paaMepa noc06HJI (B OTJ1H4He OT nporpaMM CTpaxoBaHHH OT 6eapa60TH!,!bl aanaJ:lHOrO THna). BOJ1ee Toro, H OnJlTb :lKe B OTJ1H4He OT aanaJ:lHblX CHCTeM, He 6blJ10 YCTaHOBJ1eHO MHHHMaJ1bHOrO nepHOJ:la, B 164 Eie3pa6omul.la, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa TetleHHe KOTOpOrO tlenOBeK JlOJ1)KeH 6bln pa60TaTb. tlT06bl nOny-4HTb npaBO Ha noc06He no 6e3pa60THlle. KpOMe Toro, MHOrHe nHlla. He BXOJlHI,UHe B COCTaB pa60tleH CHnbl, no HCTetleHHH HeKOToporo BpeMeHH MornH nony-4HTb npaBO Ha noc06He. HanpHMep. MaTepH. yxa:lKHBalOl,UHe 3a JleTbMH MnaJlWe Tpex neT, nony-4anH npaBO Ha noc06He no 6e3pa60THIle no HCTetleHHe rOJla yxoJla 3a pe6eHKOM. AHaJJOrHtlHO, npaBo Ha noc06He nony-4aJJH nHlla tlepe3 rOJl: (a) yxoJla 3a JleTbMH- HHBaJJH,IlaMH; (6) nocne perHCTpallHH B KatleCTBe nHlla, Hl,UYl,Uero pa60TY; (B) nocne nony-4eHHH neHCHH no HHBaJJHJlHOCTH HnH no cny-4alO nOTepH KopMHnbi,&a; (r) 60ne3HH; HnH (,Il) nocne cnY:lK6bl B apMHH. 3a,llep:lKaHHH HnH 3aKJ1lOtleHHH. B HHBape 1991 r. CHCTeMa noc06HH 6b1na HeCKonbKO H3MeHeHa. Pa3Mep noc06HH 6b1n cOKpaijJeH: (3)B nepBblB weCTb MecHlleB 6e3 pa60TbI,IlO 65% ,IlnH yaoneHHblx no npHtlHHe peopr3HH3allHH H,IlO 60% WlH yaoneHHblx no HHblM npHtlHHaM; (6) B TetleHHe BToporo nonyrO,llHH p33Mep noc06HH 6bln COKpaijJeH ,Il0 50% ,IlnH Bcex. Pa3Mep noc06HH ,IlnH nHIl. npOXO,llHI,UHX nepenO,llrOToBKY, OCTanCH Ha ypoBHe 70%. 113-33 HaJJHtlHH CTHMynoB He HCK3Tb p360TY H 6IOJl:lKeTHbiX 3aTpaT, npHCYlJ.1Hx nepBOH3t1anbHOH CHCTeMe. 1 HHBapH 1992 r. 6blna BBeJleHa 60nee :lKeCTK3H CHCTeMa. CpOK BblnnaT noc06HH no 6e3pa60- THlle 6bln cOKpaijJeH C 1 roJla ,IlO 6 MecHlleB (3a HCKJ1lOtleHHeM noc06HH nHllaM, npOXOJlHijJHM nepenO,llrOToBKY, KOTopble nony-4aJJH HX B TetleHHe rO,lla) H p33Mep noc06HH WlH nHIl. YBoneHHblX no cOKpal,UeHHIO WT3TOB 6bln yt.1eHbweH ,Il0 60% B TetleHHe nepBblx 3-x MecHlleB nonYtleHHH noc06HH, HO coxp3HeH H3 ypoBHe 50% B TetleHHe BTOPblX 3-x MecHlleB. Bbln BBe,lleH TaK:lKe M3KcHManbHblH npe,llen noc06HH. COCTaBnHBWHH 3 000 KpOH. COKpaijJeHHe B HHBape 1992 r. CPOK3 Bblnn3Tbi noc06HH HeCOMHeHHO OKa3aJJO BJIHHHHe Ha ypoBeHb 6e3p36OTHIlbi B 3TOM rOJlY. K ,IleKa6plO 1991 r. OTHoweHHe tlHCna nHIl. nonYtlalOijJHX noc06HH. K 06ijJeMY tlHcny 6e3pa60THbIX COCTaBnHno 72% B l..{ewcKoH Pecny6nHKe H 81,3% B CnoBaKHH. Kor,lla B HHBape 1992 r. 6bln3 BBe,lleH3 60nee :lKeCTKaH CHCTeM3, 3T0 OTHOWeHHe HeMeWleHHO COKpaTHnOCb ,Il0 58,4% H 52,2% COOTBeTCTBeHHO. Bonee Toro, no Mepe Toro, K3K Bce 60nbwe H 60nbwe 6e3pa60THbix TepHno npaBo H3 ,IlanbHeHwee nony-4eHHe noc06HH, HO npo,llon:lKano OCTaBaTbCH 6e3pa60THblMH. 3T0 OTHoweHHe npO,llOn:lK3nO CHH:lKaTbCH nOKa He cTa6HnH3HpOBanOCb B III KB. 1992 r. Ha ypoBHe 45-47% B l..{ewcKoH Pecny6nHKe H 33-36% B CnoBaKHH. 13 13KaK 6y,lleT BH,IlHO H3 60nee nO,llp06HOro onHcaHHH HH:lKe. pa3HHIl3 lfew.CKaR Pecny6.f1UKa U C.f1ofiaKUR 165 HeKOTopble KpHTHKH CHCTeMbi 1990-1991 fT. yrsep)l(,QanH, "ITO ee l,ije,QpOCTb CYlJ.leCTBeHHO cnoc06CTBoBaJJa POCTY 6e3pa6oTHUbi B 1991 r. Ony6JJHKOBaHHbix aHaJJHTH"IeCKHX pa6OT, nO,QTBepJKAaIOI,ijHX HJJH onpoBepralOl,ijHX 3TO yrsep)I(,QeHHe, He CYlJ.leCTBYeT, TeM He MeHee COKpal,ijeHHe 6e3pa6oTHUbI B 1992 r., Kor,Qa npOH30WJJO CHH)f(eHHe pa3MepOB noco6H11 H 6blJJ orpaHH4eH CpOK ero BbInJJaTbl, TaK)f(e raBopl1T B nOJJb3Y yrsep)I(,QeHHl1, "ITO l,ije,Qpal1 nporpaMMa CTpaXOBaHHl1 OT 6e3pa6oTHUbI cnoco6CTBOBaJJa POCTY 6e3pa6OTHUbl B 1991 r.14 B 1993 r. CHCTeMa He nO,QBepraJJaCb Cepbe3HblM H3MeHeHHl1M. HH B TOH, HH B ,QpyrOH pecny6JJHKe npo,QOJJ)f(HTeJJbHOCTb BblnJJaTbl noco6Hl1 H era pa3Mepbl He H3MeHl1JJHCb. SblJJH YCTaHOBJJeHbl HOBbie MHHHMaJJbHble H MaKCHMaJJbHble pa3Mepbl noco6HH B COOTBeTCTBHH C POCTOM MHHHMaJJbHOH (npO)f(HT04HOH) 3apa6oTHOH nJJaTbi. Hepa(JeHcm(Jo ypo(JHeu 6e3pa6omutjbl (J lfew.CKOU U C.f1ofial.JKOU pecny6.f1UKaX HeCMOTpl1 Ha TO, "ITO o6e pecny6JJHKH Ha4aJJH C O,QHHaKOBO HH3Koro ypOBHl1 6e3pa6oTHUbl, Bcero 4epe3 HeCKOJJbKO Mecl1yeB ypOBeHb 6e3pa6oTHYbi B CJJOBaKHH B,QBoe npeBblWaJJ 6e3pa6OTHUY B YeXHH. Co BpeMeHeM 3TOT pa3pbJB yaeJJH4HBaJJCl1: B l1HBape 1992 r. COOTHoweHHe Me)I(,QY ypOBHeM 6e3pa6oTHYbi B CJJOBaKHH H YexHH COCTaBJJl1JJO 3: I. a B oKT116pe 1993 r. - 4,3: 1. '-IeM 06'bJtCHJteTCl1 pa3JJH4He ypoBHeH 6e3pa6OTHYbi B CJJOBaKHH H YexHH? MO)f(eT JJH KaKOe-JJH6o H3 06'bl1CHeHHH 3Toro 4leHoMeHa nOM04b HaM nOH11Tb ,QHHaMHKY 6e3pa6o- THYbl B ,Qpyrnx CTpaHax USE? Mbl Ha4HeM C H3Y4eHHl1 nOTOKOB, nOnOJJHl1lOl,ijHX apMHIO 6e3pa6OTHbix H COKpal,ijalOl,ijHX ee 4HCJJeHHOCTb, a 3aTeM H3Y"1HM pa3JJH4Hl1 B cnpoce H npe,QJJO)f(eHHH TpY,Qa B ,QByx pecny6JJHKax. a TaK)f(e pa3JJH4Hl1 B OCYl,ijeCTBJJeHHH rocY,QapCTBeHHbJX nporpaMM Ha pbIHKe TpY,Qa H HX BJJHl1HHe Ha Herb. npl1TOK B COCTAB 11 BbIEblTME 113 YI1CnA BE3PABOTHbIX. Pa3JJH4Hl1 npHTOKa B COCTaB H BblXO,Qe H3 4HCJJa 6e3pa6oTHbiX nOMoryT Me)I(,QY 3THMH nOKa3aTeJJRMH B ,QBYX pecny6JJHKaX 06'bRCHReTcR 60JJbWHM 4HCJJOM ,QJJHTeJJbHO 6e3pa6oTHbiX B CJJOBaKHH. 4eM B YewcKoH P~ny6JJHKe. 14)lnR 60JJee Tl,ijaTeJJbHOrO aHaJJH3a 3Toro COBna,QeHHR Heo6xo,QHMO, KOHe4HO. npoaHaJJH3HpOBaTb MHKP03KoHoMH4ecKHe ,QaHHble. 166 Be3pa6omu14a, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa HaM nOHHTb pa3JIH1.lHe B ypoBHe 6e3pa6oTHYbi B ABYX pecny6nHfcax. BOCnOJIb30BaBmHCb nOKBapTanbHblMH AaHHblMH 3a 1992 H 1993 IT. 0 cpeAHeMeCH1.JHOM npHToKe B COCTaB 6e3pa6oTHblX no OTHomeHHIO K 1.JHCJIeHHOCTH pa601.JeH CHJI~ H cpeAHeMeCH1.JHOH 1.JHCJIeHHOCTH nOKHAalOlJ!HX COCTaB 6e3pa 60THbiX OTHOCHTeJIbHO rOAoBoH 1.JHCJIeHHOC- TH 6e3pa6OTHblx, H3 Ta6nHIJ.bl 3-9 (CTOJI6Ybl 1 H 4) MO)KHO BHAeTb, 'ITO B l..{emcKoH Pecny6JIHKe npHTOK B COCTaB 6e3pa60THb1X 6blJI MeHbme (OT 0,5% AO 0,8%), 4eM B CJIOBaKHH (OT 0,9% AO 1,5%), a nOTOK nOKHAalOlJ!HX COCTaB 6e3pa60THbiX 6blJI cyJ,UeCTBeHHo Bblme (OT 19% AO 30% npOTHB 8-12%). 04eBHAHO, B CJIOBaKHH 6blJIO ropa3Ao 60JIbme yaOJIbHeHHH H/HJIH 60JIbme JIHY, nonaAalOlJ!HX H3BHe COCTaBa pa604eH CHJIbl B apMHIO 6e3pa6oTHblX. KaK BHAHO H3 CTOJI6YOB (7) H (9), KO:::I(PQlHUHeHT npHToKa B COCTaB 6e3pa6oTHbiX B CJIOBaKHH OT 1,5 AO 2.25 pa3 npeBblmaJI 3TOT )Ke nOKa3aTeJIb AJIH l..{exHH. TorAa KaK K03QlQlH!,!HeHT Bbl6blTHH COCTaBJIHn MeHee nOJIOBHHbl nOKa3aTeJIH AJIH l..{exHH BO Bcex, KpoMe OAHoro, KBapTaJIax. ECTecTBeHHo, 4T0 4HCJIeH- HOCTb 6e3pa6oTHbiX B' CJIOBaKHH pocJIa 6blCTpee, 4eM B l..{emcKoH Pecny6JIHKe, nocKonbKY cHTyaYHH TaM 6blJIa xY)Ke ~ C npHTOKOM, ~ H C Bbl6blTHeM H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa6oTHblX. Boeri (1994) yKa3blBaeT, 'ITO nOTOKH, nOnOJIHHlOlJ!He COCTaB 6e3pa6OTHbiX B 06eHX pecny6JIHKaX Ha caMOM Aene 6blJIH HH3KH no cpaBHeHHIO C nOTOKaMH B CTpaHax 03CP B 1992 r. HanpoTHB, Bbl6blTHe H3 4HCJIa 6e3pa60THb1X B l..{emcKoH Pecny6JIHKe 6JIH3KO K HaH60JIee BblCOKHM nOKa3aTeJIHM CTpaH 03CP, TorAa KaK 3TOT )Ke nOKa3aTenb B CJIOBaKHH HBJIHeTCH OAHH H3 caMblX HH3KHX. CJIeAOBaTeJIbHO, BblCOKHH ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THUbi B cTpaHax UBE, no cpaBHeHHIO co CTpaHaMH 03CP, nO-BHAHMOMY 06bHcHHeTcH HH3KHM ypoBHeM Bbl6bITHH H3 4Hcna 6e3pa6oTHblX. Ta6JIHua 3-9 nOKa3blBaeT, 'ITO 060POT 4HCJIa 6e3pa6oTHbiX B l..{emcKoH Pecny6JIHKe 6blJI Bblme, 4eM B CJIOBaUKOH Pecny6JIHKe. 113 AaHHblX CTOJI6YOB (2) H (3) MO)KHO BHAeTb, 'ITO B Te4eHHe MeCH!,!a B l..{emcKoH Pecny6JIHKe CMeHHJIOCb OKOJIO OAHOH nHTOH 061J!ero 4HCJIa 6e3pa60THblX, TorAa KaK B CJIOBaKHH nOnaAaJIO B apMHIO 6e3pa60THbiX flJIH nOKHAaJIO ee JIHmb OKOJIO OAHOH AeCHTOH 061J!ero 4HCJIa 6e3pa- 60THbiX (CTOJI6Ubl (5) H(6». CJIeAOBaTenbHo, MO)KHO O)KHAaTb, 'ITO hPO):lOJI)KHTeJIbHOCTb 6e3pa60THUbi B CJIOBaKHH 6YAeT Bblme. 11 AeHCTBHTeJIbHO, AaHHbie paHOHHblX 61Opo no TPYAOYCTPOHCTBY nOKa3blBalOT, 'ITO CJIOBaKHH BcerAa xapaKTepH30BaJIaCb 60JIbmeH AOJIeH AnHTeJIbHO 6e3pa60THblX, H 'ITO 3Ta AOJIH CO BpeMeHeM pOCJIa 6blCTpee. Ha4HHaH CO II KB. 1992 r. 3Ta AOJIH CTa6HnH3HpOBaJIacb. H npHMepHo OAHa TpeTb 061J!ero 4HCJIa 6e3pa6OTHbix B CnOBaKHH He 167 pa60TaJla 60Jlee O):lHOrO rO):la, Tor):la KaK B l..{ewcKoH Pecny6J1HKe 4HCJlO ):lJIHTeJlbHO 6e3pa60THbiX COCTaBJIHJlO MeHee O):lHOH nHTOH (17%) 15 HX o6ljJero 4HCJla. AKTOPbI CnpOCA. ECTecraeHHo, B03HHKaeT Bonpoc: 4TO npHBeJIO K TaKoH KapTHHe npHToKa B COCTaB H Bbl6bITHH H3 apMHH 6e3pa6oT- HbIX? OCHOBHOH npH4HHoH HepaBeHCTBa ypOBHH 6e3pa60THlJbl CO CTOPOHbl cnpoca HBJlHeTCH pa3JIH4HOe BJlI1HHHe pa3BaJIa pblHKa C3B Ha Ka)l(JlylO H3):lBYX pecny6J1HK. nOCKOJlbKY HH):lyCTpHaJlH3alJHH CJlOBaKHH npoHCxO):lHJla B OCHOBHOM B KOMMYHHCTH4ecKHH nepHO):l, 3Ha4HTeJlbHaH 4aCTb ee npOMblWJleHHOH npo):lyKlJHH npe):lHa3Ha4aJIaCb ):lJlH pblHKa C3B. B 1991 r., nocJle Toro, KaK CJlOBalJKHH 3KcnopT B CTpaHbl 6bIBwero C3B Y)I(e COKpaTHJlCH ):lO 72% OT ypOBHH 1989 r., CJlOBalJKaH Pecny611HKa Bce eljJe npo):loJl)l(aJla nOCTaBnHTb Ha 3TOT PblHOK (H, CJle):lOBaTeJIbHO, 3aBHceTb OT Hero) 42% 06beMa CBoero 3KcnopTa, TOr):la KaK 3KcnopT Ha 6bIBWHH PblHOK C3B COCTaBJI.fIJI JlHWb 29% omeMa Bcero 3KcnopTa l..{ewcKoH Pecny6J1HKH (Vavro, 1992). XOT.fI nOJlHbIH 3¢¢eKT cna):la npOH3BO):lCTBa B pe3yJlbTaTe COKpaljJeHHH eMKOCTI1 pblHKa C3B eljJe npe):lCTOHT BbIHCHHTb, 60Jlee BblCOKHH npHToK 11 6011ee Me):lJleHHOe Bbl6bITI1e JlHlJ H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa6oTHbIX (11, CJle):lOBaTe11bHO, 60Jlee BblCOKHH ypoBeHb 6e3pa6OTHlJbI) no KpaHHeH Mepe OT4aCTI1 MO)l(HO 06b.flCHHTb 3THM ¢aKTOpoM. CyljJecrayeT MHeHHe, 4TO O¢l1lJHaJlbHble ):laHHble Hea):leKBaTHO OTpa)l(alOT 113MeHeHH.fI cnpoca, nocKoJlbKY OHH He MOryT T04HO 113MepHTb POCT 4aCTHoro ceKTopa, oc06eHHO MaJlbIX ¢I1PM. B MaJlblX ¢HpMax (C 4HCJlOM pa6OTHHKOB ):l0 100 4eJIOBeK) Ha6J1IO):laeTCH ropa3):l0 60Jlee 6blCTPbIH pOCT 3aH.fITOCTH B l..{ewcKoH, 4eM B CJlOBalJKOH Pecny6J1HKe. B I1CCJle):lOBaHI1I1, npe):lCTaBJIeHHOM B 1992 r. 3aMeCTHTe- JleM npeMbep-MHHI1CTpa CJlOBaKHI1 (Vavro. 1992, CTp. 3), HanpHMep, YTBep)l():laeTCH, ,4TO KOJlH4eCTBO 3aHHTbIX Ha MaJlblX ¢HpMax B l..{exHH BblpOCJlO B 1991 r. Ha 250 TbIC. 4eJIOBeK, Tor):la KaK B CnOBaKI1H - Bcero Ha 30 TbIC. 4enOBeK. J1cCJle):lOBaHl1e. npOBe):leHHOe Horalek (1993) OlJeHI1BaeT pOCT 411CJleHHOCTI1 He3apernCTpl1pOBaHHblx B KOMMep4ecKoM peeCTpe 4aCTHbiX npe):lnpl1HHMaTeneH B 1991 r. B 400 TbiC. 4enOBeK. 15CJlOBaKH, no KpaHHeH Mepe, HaXO):lHTCH B JlY4weM nOJlO)l(eHI1I1, 4eM nOnHKI1. C Cepe):lI1Hbl 1992 r. ):l0 I KB. 1993 r. OT 40% ):l0 45% nonbCKHX 6e3pa6oTHbIX B ):laHHOM MeC.fIlJe He HMenl1 pa60Tbi rO):l I111H 6oJlee. (CM. rJlaBY 2 HaCToHljJerO H3):laHI1H). Ta6JlHua 3-9. npHTOK B COCTas H Bbl6blTHe H3 'l.(HCJla 6eapa6oTHblX. t.{eWCKalt Pecny6nHKa CnOBa1{KaIt Pecny6nHKa t.{P/cP npHTOK/ npHTOK/ Bbl6b1THe/ npHTOK/ npHTOK! Bbl6b1THe/ npHToK! npHToK! Bbl6b1THe/ t.{PC· 6eap. 6e3p. t.{pc· 6e3p. 6e3p. t.{peo 6e3p. 6e3p. KllapTan (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) I KB. 19921". O,7Y. 17,31. 21,5Y. O,9Y. 8,3Y. 7,7Y. 1,36 0,48 0,36 II 1<8. 19921". O,5y' 18,3X 29,9X O,8X 7,7Y. 10,6X 1,50 0,42 0,35 III ItB. 19921". O,6Y. 24,7X 25,9Y. O,9Y. 9,OY. 10,9Y. 1,36 0,36 0,42 IV 1<8. 1992 1". O,5Y. 22,5Y. 23.0Y. l,OY. 10,8Y. 11,6Y. 1,83 0.48 0,50 I 1<8. 1993 1". 0,7Y. 24.7Y. 21.1Y. l,4Y. 13.1Y. 8,OY. 1,95 0,53 0,38 II 1<8. 19931". 0.51. 21,lY. 24,2Y. 1.1Y. 10,3Y. 9.0Y. 2,06 0,49 0,37 III ItB. 19931". 0.7Y. 25,4Y. 19,4Y. 1,3Y. 10,9Y. 7,8Y. 1,75 0,43 0,40 IV 1<8. 1993 1". O,7Y. 20,1Y. 16,6Y. l,OY. 8.4Y. 8,OY. 1,57 0,42 0,48 llpUM€LtaHUR: npHBe,!leHbl Cpe,!lHeMeCR'l.(Hble 3Ha'l.(eHHR 3a ,!laHHbIH KBapTaJI. a. '-[PC - '-[HCJleHHOCTb Pa60'l.(eH CHnbl. 'CfewCKQR Pecny6.nuKQ U C.lIO(JQKUR 169 .!laHHble 0 8aKaHCHllX, 0 KOTOPblX nOJlYlIHJlH HHq.JOPMalJHlO 61Opo no TPY,Ll0YCTPOHCTBY, TaK>Ke nOnTBep)f(J:talOT MHeHHe, liTO 8 CJlOBaKHH Ha6JllOnaJlCll 60Jlee CJla6blH cnpoc Ha Tpyn. B Mae 1993 r. 0611lee lIHCJlO BaKaHcHH B \.{elllcKoH Pecny6JlHKe 6blJlO nOllTH B ceMb pa3 Bblllle, lIeM B CJlOBaKHH • .!la>Ke eCJlH BHeCTH nonpaBKH Ha pa3JlHlIHJI B OTlIeTHOCTH, OTHOCHTeJlbHOe lIHCJlO BaKaHcHH B \.{elllcKHx 3eMJlJlX H CJlOBaKHH HaMHoro npeBbllllaJlO OTHOllleHHe lIHCJleHHOCTH HaCeJleHHfI (HJlH TpynoBblx pecYPcoB) 2: 1. AHaJlOrnllHO, COnOCTaBJleHHe OTHOllle- HHH lIHCJla 6e3pa60THblX K lIHCJlY BaKaHcHH B nBYx pecny6JlHKaX nOKa3blBaeT, liTO 3a nepHOn C ceHTfl6pfl 1990 r. no OKTfl6pb 1993 r. B CJlOBaKHH 6blJlO ropa3nO 60Jlbllle 6ropa60THblX Ha O,LlHY BaKaHCHIO, lIeM B lIelllCKHX 3eMJlllX, H 3TOT pa3pbIB yaeJlHlIHBaJlCJI (CM. PHC)'HOK 3-2) • .!lo neKa6pfl1991 r. YCJlOBHfI Ha pblHKax Tpyna B 06eHx pecny6JlHKaX yxynlllaJlHCb; Torna B CJlOBa!,!KHx 3eMJlllX Ha OnHY BaKaHCHIO npHXOnH- JlOCb npHMepHo 37 6e3pa60THb1X, no cpaBHeHHIO co Bcero JlHlllb 5 B \.{elllcKHX 3eMJlllX (oTHollleHHe 8: 1). TaK>Ke KaK H ypoBeHb H TeMnbl pOCTa 6e3pa60TH!,!bl, B TelleHHe 1992 r. YCJlOBHfI Ha pblHKax Tpyna YCTOHlIHBO YJlYlIlllaJlHcb. HallHHalI C JlHBaplI 1993 r., O,LlHaKO, 3TH OTHOllleHHll CHOBa HallaJlH paCTH, oc06eHHO B CJlOBaKHH. B OKT1l6pe 1993 r. B \.{elllcKoH Pecny6JlHKe Ha OnHY BaKaHCHIO npHXOnHJlOCb OKOJlO 3 6e3pa60THb1X, Torna KaK B CJlOBaKHH HX 6blJlO 42. ElIle O,LlHHM CBHneTeJlbCTBOM Toro, liTO cnpoc B OnHOH 3KOHOMHKe Mor 6blTb Bblllle, lIeM B npyroH, llBJllleTCll TOT cpaKT, liTO B \.{eXHH Ha6JlIO,LlaJlHCb 60Jlee MOlllHble nOTOKH JlHlJ, MeHlllOlIlHX MeCTO pa60Tbl 6e3 npOMe>KYTOllHoro npe6bIBaHHll B apMHH 6e3pa60THb1X • .!laHHble BHYTpeHHero HCCJlenOBaHHll, npOBeneHHoro ct>enepaJlbHblM MHHHCTepCTBOM Tpyna nOKa3b1Ba1OT, liTO 24% Bcex pa60llHx, YBOJleH- HblX B 1991 r. B \.{elllcKoH Pecny6JlHKe. HalllJlH pa60TY 6e3 pernCTpa- lJHH B KalleCTBe 6e3pa60THb1X. B CJlOBaKHH 3Ta nOJlll COCTaBHJla Bcero 11,3%. AKTOPbI nPE.!lflOiKEHVlH. El!!e OnHHM cpaKTopoM, KOTOPbIH, BepOllTHO, nOBJlHflJl Ha 60Jlee BblCOKHH TeMn OTTOKa 6e3pa60THblX B \.{P, JlBJllIeTCJI OTHOCHTeJlbHO 60Jlblllall JlerKOCTb, C KOTOPOH lIeXH MO~ nOJlYllHTb pa60TY B repMaHHH HJlH AaCTPHH, H3-3a npeHMYlllec- TBa reorpacpHlIecKoro nOJlOJKeHHll pecny6JlHKH • .!laHHble ct>enepaJlbHOrO CTaTHCTHlIeCKoro ynpaBJleHHll no cpenepa!,!HH B lJeJlOM n03BOJllllOT CneJlaTb 8b1BOn, liTO 3aHJlTOCTb 3a py6e>KOM B 1990-1991 rr. no liTH ynBOHJlaCb. OKOJlO 60% 8cex pa60TalOI!!Hx 3a py6e>KOM TpynHJlHCb B repMaHHH H ABCTPHH, CJlenOBaTeJlbHO, 3TO B nepBylO ollepenb 3aTparnBaJlO npHrpaHHlIHble paHOHbl. 170 Be3pa6omul1a, nepecmpoi'bw 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa PHCYHOK 3-2. 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H ::ITO TO:lKe nOMOraeT 06bSlCHHTb pa3nH4He B ypOBHSlX 6e3pa6OTH!J,bl. YTBep)K,[lanOCb. "ITO CYllleCTBYIOT pa3nH"IHH B ,lleMOrpatPH"IeC- KHX XapaKTepHCTHKaX HaCeneHHH 4eXHH H CnOBaKHH. KOTOpble nOMOralOT 06bHCHHTb pa3HH!J.Y B ypOBHHX 6e3pa60TH!J,bl. COrnaCHO Vavro (1992) O,[lHHM H3 Ba:lKHbIX tPaKTOPOB SlBnSleTCH 60nee BbICOKaH ,[lonSi !J,blraH B HaceneHHH pa6oTocnoc06Horo B03paCTa B CnoBaKHH - HaceneHHe. 60nee CKJ10HHOe K MHrpa!J,HH. MeHee CTa6HnbHo Bxo,[lHlllee B COCTaB pa604ei1 CHnbl H 60nee 4aCTO nona,[lalOlllee B COCTaB apMHH 6e3pa60THbIx. Vavro (1992) oTMe4aeT, "ITO B MapTe 1992 r. 55400 !J,blraH 6blJ1H 6e3pa60THb1MH; H3 HHX 44 700 HaXO,[lHnHCb B CnoBaKHH • .[{aHHble CnoBa!J,Koro MHHHCTepCTBa TpY,[la rOBopSiT 0 TOM, "ITO B ,[leKa6pe 1991 r. ypoBeHb 6e3pa60TH!J,bI cpe,[lH !J,blraH CnoBaKHH 171 COCTaBJHUI 42.9%, TorJla KaK ypoBeHb 6e3pa60TH\,!bl JlJUI BceH CnoBa\,!- KOH Pecny6nHKH 6bln paBeH nHWb 11,8%. CYlJAeCTByeT MHeHHe. "ITO CTaTHCTHKa 6e3pa60THgbi CpeJlH \,!blraH, c06paHHall paHOHHblMH 6JOpo no TpYJlOYCTPOHCTBY, CHnbHO 3aHH)KaeT JlonJO gblraH H3-3a Toro, "ITO OHH CaMOCTOllTenbHO 06pal}!aJOTClI B ::ITH 6JOpo. TeM He MeHee, ecnH \,!blraHe MeHee perynllpHO BblXOJlllT Ha PblHOK TpYJla H HX Jlonll B COCTaBe HaCeneHHlI B CnOBaKHH Bblwe, 4eM B l..JeXHH, ::ITO, 6e3 COMHeHHlI, lIBnlleTClI ¢aKTOpOM, 06'bllCHlIJOI}!HM pa3nH4He B ypOBHlIX 6e3pa60TH\,!bl B JlByx pecny6nHKax. Pa3nH4HlI B· B03paCTHOH CTpYKType pa604eH CHnbl B JlByx pecny6nHKax TaK)Ke MOryT cnY)I{HTb ¢aKTOpOM. 06'bllCHlIJOI}!HM OTHOCHTenbHble ypOBHH 6e3pa60THgbl. Pa604all CHna B CnOBa\,!KOH Pecny6nHKe MOnO)l{e, H, nOCKonbKY ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THgbi CpeJlH 60nee MOnOJloro HaCeneHHlI Bblwe, ::ITO MO)KeT 06'bllCHHTb 60nee 16 BblCOKHH 061}!HH ypOBeHb 6e3pa6OTH\,!bl. HaKoHeg, nOCKonbKY Y4aCTHe )KeHI}!HH B pa604eH CHne B Te4eHHe HX )l{H3HH MeHee nOCTOllHHO, 4eM yt.IaCTHe MY)I{4HH, Jlnll HagHH C 60nbweH JlOneH )l{eHI,IJHH B COCTaBe pa604eH CHnbl, no BceH Bep01lTHOCTH, 6YJleT xapaKTepeH 60nee BblCOKHH ypOBeHb 6e3pa60TH- gbl, 4eM JlJlll HagHH C MeHbweH JlOneH )KeHI,IJHH. Bonbwe nH )KeHI}!HH B COCTaBe pa604eH CHnbl CnOBaKHH? Mbl He HawnH CYl,IJeCTBeHHblX pa3nH4HH Me)KJlY JlBYMlI pecny6nHKaMH. C 1985 r. no 1991 r. )KeHI}!HHbl COCTaBnllnH OKono 45% pa604eH CHnbl B Ka)KJloH H3 HHX (c OTKJ10HeHHeM Bcero B 1~ B TY HnH HHYJO CTOPOHY). OJlHaKO 3a nepHOJl C 1990 no 1993 rr. Jlonll )KeHI}!HH CpeJlH 6e3pa60THbiX 6blna 06bl4HO Bblwe, 4eM HX Jlonll B COCTaBe 3aHlITOrO HaCeneHHlI 06eHx pecny6nHK. 3Ta Jlonll B l..JewcKoH Pecny6nHKe (56- 60%) 6blna, TeM He MeHee, Bblwe, 4eM B CnoBaKHH (49-52%). JlaHHble 06 ypOBHe 6e3pa60THgbl TaK)I{e nOJlTBep)KJlaJOT, "ITO C HJOHlI 1991 r. )l{eHI}!HHbl B l..JexHH 4al}!e OCTaBanHCb 6e3 pa60Tbl, 4eM MY)K4HHbl, TorJla KaK Me)KJlY ypOBHlIMH MY)I{CKOH H )KeHCKOH 6e3pa60TH\,!bl B CnoBaKHH CYlJAeCTBeHHoH pa3HHgbi 3apernCTpHpOBaHO He 6blno (CM. Paukert, 1991). CneJlOBaTenbHo, 4HcneHHOCTb )l{eHI}!HH B COCTaBe pa604eH CHnbl H 4aCTOTa, C KOTOPOH OHH CTaHOBlITClI 6e3pa60THb1MH, He lIBnllJOTClI ¢aKTOpaMH, 06'bllCHlIJOI,IJHMH 60nee BblCOKHH ypOBeHb I~onee BblCOKHH ypOBeHb 6e3pa60TH\,!bl CpeJlH MOnOJlbIX, no- BHJlHMOMY, xapaKTepeH Jlnll Bcex ::IKOHOMHK - CM. JlPyrne HCCneJlOBa- HHlI B International Labor Review, vol. 130, n05.5-6, 1991. 3TO lIBneHHe nOJlaBnllnOCb o¢HgHanbHoH nOnHTHKOH rocYJlapCTBa npH CHCTeMe \,!eHTpanH30BaHHoro nnaHHpoBaHHR, cYl}!eCTBOBaBweH JlO 1989 r. 172 Be::Jpa6omU4a, nepecmpoi1Ka 3KOHOMUKU U PbI.HOK mpyiJa 6e3pa60TI1lJbl B CJlOBaKI1H. nOJU1111KA HA PbIHKE TPY,l:lA. ,l:lo 1 HHBapfi 1993 r. l..{ewcKaH H CJlOSaUKafi pecny6JlHKH ynpaBJlflJlHCb O.nHHM c:pe.nepaJlbHbIM npaBH- TeJlbCTBOM H npOBo.nHJlH e.nHHYIO nOJlHTHKY Ha pblHKe Tpy.na. O.nHaKo 6blJlH HeKoTopble cY1!!eCTBeHHble pa3JlH4HfI Me:lK,!lY .IlSYMfI pecny6JlHKa- MH B npHHflTHH 3aKOHOB H HHCTPYKUHH 0 TPY.Ile, KOTopble TalOKe nOMoralOT 06'bflCHHTb HX pa3JlH4HbIH onbIT B 06JlaCTH 6e3pa60THlJbl. O.llHO H3 HaH60Jlee Ba>KHbIX pa3JlH4HH B naccHBHoH nOJlHTHKe Ha pblHKe Tpyp;a COCTOflJlO B TOM, 4TO .nO flHsapH 1992 r. paHoHHble 61Opo no Tpy.n0YCTPOHCTSY B CJlOSaKHH n03BOJlHJlH rpa:lK,!laHaM nOJlY4aTb SbIXO.llHOe noc06He H HeMe.nJleHHO nOCJle YSOJlbHeHHfI - noc06He no 6e3pa60THlJe. nOcJle STOH .naTbl 6bIJlO BBe.neHO npaBHJlO, 4TO JlHlJO, nOJlY4HBwee BbIxo.nHoe noc06He Ha nOCJle.nHeM MeCTe pa60Tbl, MO>KeT nOJlY4HTb noc06He no 6e3pa60THlJe JlHWb no HCTe4e- HHe cpoKa, Ha KOTOPblH 6bIJlO Bbl.naHO BbIxo.nHoe noc06He (06bI4HO OT HYJlH .no nfiTH MeCfllJeS, nOCKOJlbKY Bblxo.nHoe noc06He MO>KeT BbInJla4HSaTbCH B pa3Mepe, He npeBblwalOij!eM 3apa60THYJO nJlaTY 3a nflTb MeCfllJeB). B .neKa6pe 1991 r. 82% Bcex 6e3pa60THbiX B CJlOBaKHH' nOJlY4HJlH noc06He, no cpaBHeHHIO C 74% B l..{ewcKoH Pecny6JlHKe. B flHBape 1992 r. HOBoe aaKOHo.naTeJlbCTBO 03Ha4aJlO, 4TO .noml CJlOBaKOB, nOJlY4alOij!HX noc06He, cOKpaTHJlaCb .no 53%, Tor.na KaK aHaJlOrH4HaH .nOJlfl 4eXOB cOKpaTHJlaCb .no 58%.17 CJle.noBaTeJlbHO, B03MO>KHO, 4TO npHToK (BbI6bITHe) 6blJl Sblwe (HH>Ke) B peaYJlbTaTe 60Jlee 6JlarOnpHflTHoro pe>KHMa B Te4eHHe 1991 r. TOJlbKO B HIOHe 1991 r. Ka:lK,!lafi pecny6JlHKa npHHHJla 3aKOHO- .IlaTeJlbCTBO 06 aKTHBHOH nOJlHTHKe Ha pblHKe Tpyp;a. 3Ta nOJlHTHKa BKJl104HJla B ce6H nporpaMMbl: (a) C03.naHHH ((COlJHaJlbHO-OpHeHTHpo- BaHHbIX pa604Hx MeCT» (COPM), npe.llnpHHHMaTeJlbCTBa H .IlOJlrOBpe- MeHHblX pa604Hx MeCT; (6) (W6ij!eCTBeHHO-nOJle3HbIX pa60T» (Onp) H KpaTKocp04HbIX pa604Hx MeCT; (B) Cy6CH.IlHH Ha nOHCK pa60TbI JlJlH 17 JlHlJO, Hij!Yij!ee pa6OTY, nOJlY4aeT npaBO Ha noc06He no 6eapa60THlJe no HCTe4eHHH ceMH .nHeH C MOMeHTa no.na4H HM 3aHBJleHHfI B 61Opo no Tpy.n0YCTPOHCTBY. BbInJlaTa noc06HH npeKpa- ij!aeTCfI no HCTe4eHHH weCTH MeCHlJeB ero BbInJlaTbI HJlH paHee, eCJlH KaH.nH.naT (a) He flBHJlCH B 61Opo B 3apaHee orOBopeHHbIH .neHb; (6) OTKa3aJlCH OT no.nxo.nHij!eH pa60ThI; (B) OTKa3aJlCH OT nepenO.llrOTOBKH. ECJlH KaH.IlH.naTY He Y.IlaJIOCb HaHTH pa60TY B Te4eHHe nOJlyrO.lla, ero HMfl OCTaeTCH B 6a3e .naHHbIX 61Opo no TPy.n0YCTPOHCTBY. OH HJlH OHa MO>KeT 06paTHTbCfI B YnpaBJleHHe COUHaJlbHblX BonpocOB H 3.1lpaBOOX- paHeHHfI MeCTHoro MYHHYHnaJlbHOrO oKpyra 3a cOlJHaJlbHbIM noc06HeM. t{eWCKaR Pecny6JlUKa U CJl06aKUR 173 BbmYCKHHKOB; H (r) nepenO,l:troTOBKH 6e3pa60THb1X. PaHOHHble 61Opo no TPY,l:t0YCTPOHCTBY TaK)I(e Bbl,l:taBaJIH cy6CH,l:tHH TeM ¢HpMaM, KOTopble BHe,l:tpflJIH TeXHOJIOrnt.JeCKMe H3MeHeHHfI, COKpalJ.lalOIJ.lHe pa60t.Jee BpeMH. Cy6CH,l:tHM nOKpblBaJIH pa3HHYY Me)l(,l:(y nOJIHblM H YKopOt.JeHHbIM pa60t.JHM ,l:tHeM H, CJIe,l:tOBaTeJIbHO, YMeHblilaJIH KOJIHt.JeCTBO YSOJIbHe- HHH. KpOMe onMcaHHblX Bblllle cxeM Mbl H3Yt.JHM BJIHflHHe aKTHBHOH nOJIHTHKH Ha pblHKe TpY,l:ta, KOTopafl OCYlJ.leCTBJIHJIaCb B nepHO,l:t C 1991 r. no 1993 r. COUHAnbHO-OPI1EHTI1POBAHHbIE PAB04I1E MECTA. nporpaMMa COPM COCTOHT H3 ,l:tByx pa3Hbix THnOB nporpaMM ,l:tJIfi 3apernCTpHpoBaHHbix 6e3pa60THb1X: nporpaMMbl nOMolJJH HOBblM npe,l:tnpHHHMaTeJIfiM (HH,l:tHBM,l:tyaJIbHbIM) H nporpaMMbl nOMolJJH npH C03,1:taHMH pa60t.JHx MeCT Y)I(e cYlJJeCTBYlQIJJMM pa60TO,l:taTeJIfiM. COrJIaCHO 3aKoHO,l:taTeJIbCTBY, Bce pa60t.JMe MeCTa, npe,l:tJIaraeMble ,l:tJIfi COPM, ,l:tOJI)I(Hbl 06JIa):(aTb XOpOlllHMH lllaHcaMH npocYlJJeCTBoBaTb ,l:tJIMTeJIbHOe BpeMfi • .r1eu.etrrpa.rrH30BaHHblH xapaKTep ynpaBJleHHfI 3TOH nporpaMMOH n03BOJIHJI oCYlJJeCTBJIflTb ee B pa3JIHt.JHbIX paHoHax no-pa3HoMY. MeCTHbie 61Opo no TpY,l:tOYCTPOHCTBY KOHTPOJIHpOBaJIH THn C03,1:taBae- MbiX B HX paHoHe npe,l:tnpHflTHH. nOCKOJIbKY Bce npe,l:tJIO)l(eHHfI ,l:tOJI)I(Hbl 6blJIH CHat.JaJIa nO,l:taBaTbCH B 6lOpo. PaMoHHbie 61Opo no TPY,l:t0YCTPOM- CTBY TaK)I(e pelilaJIH, KOro OHH HanpaBflT Ha pa60TY ua COPM. B 60JIblllMHCTBe CJIYt.JaeB 61Opo HanpaBJIfiJIM Ha 3TM pa60t.JMe MeCTa JIYt.JlllMX KaH,l:tM,l:taTOB, a He Tex, KTO Mor McnblTblBaTb 3aTpY,l:tHeHMH C nOMCKaMM pa60Tbl r,l:te-JIM60 elJ.le. PaHOHHble 61Opo no TPY,l:t0YCTPOHCTBY ¢MHaHCMpOBaJIM 3TY nporpaMMY CJIe,l:tYIOIJJMMM TpeMH cnoc06aMM: (a) ,l:tOTalJMH; (6) 6ecnpo- u.eHTHaH ccY,l:ta; M/MJIM (B) BblnJIaTbl npOlJeHTOB no Kpe,l:tHTaM, nOJIYt.JeH- HblM pa60TO,l:taTeJIeM (:3T0 ,l:teJIaJIOCb ,l:tJIfi Toro. t.JT06bl nOOlJ.lpMTb 6aHKM yseJIMt.JHBaTb 06beMbi Kpe,l:tHTOBaHMH H TeM caMblM npe,l:tOCTaBJIHTb npe,l:tnpHHMMaTeJIHM ,l:tOcTyn K 60JIee KpynHOMY KanHTaJIY). Be3pa60T- HblM nO,l:taBaJI 3aHBJIeHHe Ha ¢MHaHCMpOBaHHe no O,l:tHOMY M3 3TMX BapMaHTOB, a ,l:tMpeKTOp 61Opo no TPY,l:tOYCTPOMCTBY pelilaJI, KaKOM M3 HMX npe,l:tOCTaBMTb. .r1aHHble roBOPfiT 0 TOM, t.JTO 60JIblilaH t.JaCTb ¢MHaHCMpOBaHHH OCYlJJeCTBJIfiJIaCb nYTeM Bbl,l:teJIeHMH ,l:tOTalJMM. MMHMMaJIbHOe B03MeIJJeHHe pa60TO,l:taTeJIIO B pecny6JIMKaX 3a O,l:tHO BHOBb C03,1:taHHOe pa60t.Jee MeCTO 6blJl0 pa3JlHt.JHbIM. B CJIOBaKMH OHO paBHHJIOCb ,l:tBeHa,l:tlJaTH MMHHMaJIbHblM e)l(eMeC.fNHbIM 3apa60THbiM nJIaTaM. a B 4P - ,l:tBeHa,l:tlJaTM Cpe,l:tHeMeCflt.JHbIM noc06HHM no 6e3pa60- TMlJe, Bbl,l:taBaeMblM MeCTHblMH 61Opo no TPY,l:tOYCTPOMCTBY. PAB04I1E MECTA .r1nR BbInYCKHI1KOB. B 1991 r. cYlJJec- 174 Be3pa6omUl.-Ia. nepecmpoil'Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U PblHO'K mpyaa TBOBalla 06eCnOKOeHHOCTb, t.JTO MOllO.o.bIe lllO.o.H, OKOHt.JHBmHe mKOllY H YHHBepCHTeTbI, He CMOryr HaHTH ce6e pa60TY. n03TOMY rocy.o.apCTBO pa::JBepHYllO cneYHallbHYIO nporpaMMY .o.OTHpOBaHHH pa60t.JHX MeCT, npe.o.Ha::mat.JeHHbIX cneYHallbHO .o.llH HHX. 3Ta nporpaMMa KO-OpHtHTHP088HHblt pa60'lue MeCTa; MuB,C3 - MOJIo.u.e;wu. H BhlnycKHHKH UlKOJf, C&Mol.a.tU",OCTh • •• P.cxo..... Ha 1993 r. ~ CJIOI!3WtOH Pocny6JT1IKH ....... ' I uto .J(.11JOlIeHo B xarerOpHto COPM. HCTotmHJ(: ttewcTCoe H CnOBaU,KOC MHHHCTepCTBa no TpY,IJ,Y B COl(HaJlhHLIM BOUpoc.aM. gewcx:afl Pecny6.1luKa U C.Il06aKUfl 177 Ta6J1Hua 3-11. PacnpetleJleHHe JlHY, nOKHtlaiOl,UHX COCTaB 6e3pa6OT- HblX B tlaHHOM MeC.Rue, I KB. 1992 r. - IV KB. 1993 r. 4eWCKall Pecny6J1HKa HawJlH pa60Ty CHIIThf C y'le- Ta, KBaPTaJl Bcero Bcero 4epe3 STY" CaMOCTolI- HeHaAe*HbI flpO'lHe' TeJlhHO I 1<11. 1992 r. 46 098 72,6X 111<11.1992 r.45 917 68,2Y. m KB. 1992 r35 905 69,7Y. IV KB. 1992 r30 329 67,6X 11<11. 1993 r. 32749 74.8X 35.2y' 39.5Y. 10.4y' 14,8Y. II KB. 1993 r. 33 625 73.3Y. 35.8 37,5X 10.9Y. 15.8Y. m KB. 1993 r30 702 75.11- 35.41- 39.7Y. 9.11- 15.81- IV KB. 1993 r29 392 73.1X 32.81- 40,41- 10,lX 16,8Y. CnOBal.\KaIl Pecny6J1HKa I KB. 1992 r. 24 399 49.3y' II KB. 1992 r. 30 388 -- 48.21- III 1<11. 1992 r29 841 49.1Y. IV KB. 1992 r30 097 59.01- I KB. 1993 r. 23 884 68.3Y. 49.7:<: 18.6Y. 8.3Y. 7.3Y. II KB. 1993 r.27 833 71.1Y. 41.7Y. 29,3X 14,1Y. 11.1Y. III 1<11. 1993 r26 804 71.5Y. 37.7Y. 33,8Y. 15,1 Y. 12,2Y. IV 1<11. 1993 r23 342 70.1y' 37.6Y. 32.5X 12,5Y. 14.71- - lIer JIJUImtI •. qepe3 !hope no rpY,lIO}'CrpeiicTIIY • IICCro 6. B DpollCHTal OT 06[UcH 'IHCJ1eHHocTH.· HeTO'tHHJ:: qelIl¢Xoc II CnoBal\Koc MHHIICTepcTBO no rpyAY II COIlUaJlLHb'" BOnpoeaM. Ta6JIHua 3-12. PacnpeaeneHHe cpeaCTB Ha aKTHBHble H naCCHBHble nporpaMMbI 3aHflTOCTH, ,nonfl H ,nonfl BBn. 1991- 1993 IT. (M./lH KPOH)" 4eWCKaR Pecn~nHKa ,[lonR BBn ro.t\ Bcero AKTHBHaR nOnHTHKa naCCHBHaR nonHTHKa ,[lonR aKTHB- ,[loml naCCHB- HhiX HhiX nporpaMMHa aKTHBHhle Ha naCCHB- nporpaMM nporpaMMhI Hhle nporpaMMhI 1991 2450,3 1,0 773,0 1,0 1677,3 1,0 31.5Y. 68,5Y. 0,1Y. O,2Y. 1992 3 141,4 1,3 1718,1 2.2 1423,4 0,8 54,7Y. 45,3Y. 0,2Y. 0,2Y. 1993 2166,1 0,9 749,4 1,0 1416,7 0,8 34,6Y. 65,4Y. O,lY. O,2Y. CnoBaQKalll PecnyinKKa 1991 3276,5 1.0 515,3 1,0 2761.2 1,0 15,7Y. 84,3Y. 0,2Y. l,OY. 1992 5523,7 1,7 3812,8 7,4 1710,9 0,6 69,OY. 31.0" 1,3" O,6Y. 1993 2996,2 0,9 1 107,2 2,1 1858,9 0,7 37,3" 62,7Y. 0,3Y. 0,6" IlpuMe4aHue: l1H.QeKc OTHOCHTCfI K pacxo,naM B 1991 r. a. B 1993 r. paCXO,llbI CnoBaKHH Bblpa:lKeHbI B cnoBaUKHx KpOHax. 06MeHHbIH KYPC Me:lKJlY cnoBaQ.I, MuB H "lM Bonpot.aM. 180 Be3paOomU'LIa, nepecmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyi3a Bo-nepBbIX. B 1991 H 1992 IT. 06I,!!HM o6beM 61O):l)f(eTHbIX Cpe):lCTB, HanpaBJIeHHblX Ha aKTHBHYIO H naccHBHYJO nporpaMMY 3aHRTOCTH KaK ):lOJIR BBn (0,3-0,4%) B YewcKoM Pecny6JIHKe 6blJI HaMHoro HH)f(e, "IeM B 60JIbWHHCTBe ):lpyrnx eBponeMcKHx CTpaH B 3TH rO):lbl. )lOJIR BBn OT 0,9% ):lO 1,9%, Bbl):leJIeHHaR Ha 3TH ueJIH B CJIOBaU- KOM Pecny6JIHKe, 6blJIa TaK)f(e HH)f(e (XOTR H B MeHbweM CTeneHH), "IeM B eBponeMCKHX CTpaHax. )laHHble H3 Employment Outlook, 03CP (1993, Ta6JIHua 2.B.1) YKa3blBalOT, "ITO roCY):lapCTBeHHble paCXO):lbl Ha nporpaMMbl Ha pblHKe TpY):la KaK ):lOJIR BBn COCTaBJIRJIH OT 2,5% ):lO 5,5% no ceMH eBponeMcKHM CTpaHaM, npH"IeM nOJIbllla 3aBeplllaJIa cnHCOK, a 60JIbWe Bcex Ha 3TH g.enH TpaTHJIa HHJIRH):lHR. Y):lHBHTeJIb- HO 3):leCb TO, "ITO CJIOBaKH TpaTHJIH 60JIbllle no cpaBHeHHIO C "IeXaMH, HO 6e3pa6oTHua Y HHX 6blJIa Bce paBHO Bblwe H pOCJIa 6blCTpee. B 1991 r. H 1993 r. CJIOBaKH TpaTHJIH nO"ITH Ha TpeTb 60JIbllle "IeXOB, a B 1992 r. OHH nOTpaTHJIH nO"lTH Ha TpH "IeTBepTH 60JIbWe "IeXOB. BO-BTOPbIX, o6beM 61O):l)f(eTHbIX Cpe):lCTB, Bbl):leJIeHHbIX Ha nporpaMMbI pblHKa Tpy):la B 1992 r. poc KaK B YP, TaK H B CP. Becb 3TOT npHpoCT npHXO):lHJICR Ha aKTHBHble nporpaMMbl 3aHRTOCTH, paCXOIl,bl Ha KOTopble B HOMMHaJIbHOM Bblpa)f(eHMM B YP BblPOCJIM 60JIee 4eM B):lBOe, a B CP 60JIee 4eM B 7 pa3. CYMMa aCCHrHOBaHMM Ha naCCHBHble nporpaMMbI HeCKOJIbKO CHH3HJIaCb. )lOJIR aKTHBHblX nporpaMM 3aHRTOCTH B pacxo):lax B 91-92 IT. BblpOCJIa C 32% ):lO 55% B YP H C 16% ):lO 69% B CP. B 1993 r. paCXo):lbl Ha 3TH g.eJIH 6blJIH COKpaI,!!eHbl B 06eHX pecny6JIHKaX; CYMMa, BbI):leJIReMaR Ha aKTMBHble nporpaMMbl B YP 6blJIa npHMepHo TOM )f(e, "ITO H B 1991 r., XOTR B CP 61O):l)f(eT aKTHBHblX nporpaMM B 1993 r. 6blJI nO"lTH B):lBoe Bblllle, "IeM B 1991 r. B-TpeTbHx, B COCTaBe aKTHBHblX nporpaMM 3aHRTOCTH B o6eHx pecny6JIHKaX 60JIee nOJIOBHHbl pecypCOB IllJIO Ha ~HHaHcHpoBaHHe nporpaMMbl COPM (pa6oTa nJIIOC HH):lHBH):lyaJIbHOe npe):lnpHHHMaTeJIb- CTBO), npH4eM CJIOBaKH TpaTHJIH Ha 3TH g.eJIH HeMHoro 60JIbllle. B 1993 r. 4elllCKoe npaBHTeJIbCTBO pe3Ko COKpaTHJIO qmHaHcHpoBaHHe nporpaMMbl COPM, cOKpaTHB ee ):lOJIIO ):lO 29,1%. BTOPbIMH no 3Ha"lHMOCTH JlJ1R CJIOBaKOB flBJIfllOTCR nporpaMMbl onp H nepenO):lrOTOBKa, TOr):la KaK 4eXH C):leJIaJIH ynop Ha nporpaMMbl TPY):l0YCTpoHcTBa BblnYCKHHKOB H onp, B nOpR):lKe y6blBaHHR 3Ha"lH- MOCTH. ,[{OJIR Cpe):lCTB, Bbl):leJIfieMblX Ha nporpaMMY Tpy):loyCTpoMCTBa BbrnYCKHMKOB B YP B03pOCJIa C 6,270 B 1991 r. ):lO 18,9% B 1992 r. H 32,770 B 1993 r. BHOBb y):lHBJIReT TOT. ~aKT. "ITO CYI,!!eCTBeHHble pecypcbl, 3aTpa4eHHbie Ha 3TH aKTHBHble nporpaMMbl 3aHRTOCTH B CJIOBaKHH He IfeWCKQR Pecny6./lUKQ U C./lO(fQKUR 181 OKa3anH 6onbwero BnHHHHH Ha ypOBeHb 6e3pa6oTHYbi B pecny6nHKe. OTHOCHTenbHblM ycnex npOrpaMMbl COPM B o6eHx pecny6nHKax CTaHOBHTCH 04eBH)::tHbIM nocne H3y1.feHHH )::tOnH 6e3pa6oTHblX, nOnyl.fHB- WHX pa60TY B paMKaX :nOM npOrpaMMbl B Ka)l()::tOM H3 HHX (Ta6nHua 3- 13). 3a nepHo)::t 1992-1993 rr. B '4ewcKoM Pecny6nHKe B COPM yl.faCTBoBano OT 307. )::to 847. 06ij!ero 4Hcna 6e3pa60THbiX B )::taHHbIM MecHU, Tor)::ta KaK B CnoB3KHH 3Ta )::tonH Haxo)::tHnaCb Me)l(J::ty 97. H 347.. nporpaMMa onp He OKa3ana 60nbworo B03)::teMCTBHH HH B O)::tHOM H3 pecny6nHK. B lJenOM OTHoweHHe 4Hcna 06ij!eCTBeHHO- none3HbiX pa604HX MeCT K 4HcneHHOCTH 6e3pa60THbiX 6bmo )::tOBonbHO HH3KHM (MeHee 157.) B 06eHx pecny6nHKax. EcnH nocMoTpeTb Ha )::tomo nHlJ, nonY4HBwHX pa60TY B paMKax onp B )::taHHOM MecRlJe, no OTHoweHHIO K 4HcneHHOCTH nHlJ, nOKH)::taIOIllHx COCTaB 6e3pa6OTHbix B 3TOM )l(e MecRye, MO)l(HO BH)::teTb, 4TO onp 60nee Ba)l(Hbl KaK HCT04HHK Bbl6bITHR nlO)::teM H3 4Hcna 6e3pa6oTHbIX )::tnR CnoBaKHH, 4eM )::tnR '4ewcKoM Pecny6nHKH (CM. Ta6nHUY 3-13), HO B 1993 r. HX 3Ha4HMOCTb CHH3HnaCb, H Ha )::tonlO onp npHwnocb Bcero 57. 3a nepBble TpH KBapTana ro)::ta. ByJ::tY4H none3HoM B Ka4eCTBe 3KCTpeHHoM MepbI, 3Ta CHCTeMa ny6nH4Hbix pa60T, TaKHM 06pa30M, OKa3ana ropa3)::to MeHbwee BnHRHHe, 4eM nporpaMMa cOYHanbHo-opHeHTHpoBaHHblx pa604Hx MeCT. '4Hcno nHlJ, npoxo)::tRIllHX nepeno)::troToBKY, pocno 04eHb 6bICTPO, Ha4aB C 04eHb HH3Koro ypOBHR . .nO anpenR 1992 r. nOKa3aTe- nH YCTOM4HBO pocnH B o6eHx pecny6nHKax, a C Tex nop CHnbHO Kone6anHcb. O)::tHaKo nporpaMMa HHKor)::ta He OKa3bIBana cepbe3Horo BnHRHHH Ha KonH4eCTBeHHble nOKa3aTenH: 4HcneHHOCTb nHY, npOXO)::tR- L!!HX nepenO)::trOTOBKY, MeHRnaCb OT 17. )::to 107. Bcex nHlJ, yl.facTBYJO- ij!HX B aKTHBHbIX nporpaMMax 3aHRTOCTH B 06eHx pecny6nHKax H HHKor)::ta He npeBblwana 3,87. OT 06ij!eM 4HcneHHOCTH 6e3pa60THbIX B '4P H 37. B CPo BapllaHTbl II orpaHIIl.feHII51 nonllTIIKII nOcne H6apXaTHOM)) peBonlOYHH 1989 r. '4ewcKaR H CnoBaYKaR pecny6nHKH Ha4anH )::tBHraTbCR no nYTH KopeHHoM nepecTpoMKH, )::tnR KOToporo 6blnH xapaKTepHbI orpaHH4HTenbHaR MaKpo3KoHoMH4ecKaR nOnHTHKa, KpynHble H3MeHeHHR Ha MHKP03KoHoMH4ecKoM ypoBHe, cocpe)::toT04eHHble Ha MaccoBoM npHBaTH3aYHH. H TH)I(enble BHeWHHe nOTpRceHHH. CnoBaKHH no)::tBepranacb 60nee CHnbHbIM nOTpHceHl1HM H nepe)l(Hna 60nee BbICOKHM ypoBeHb 06L!!eCTBeHHblx npoTHBope4HH. C 1993 r. OHa TaK)I(e 3aMe)::tnHna XO)::t pe¢opM no cpaBHeHHIO C '4ewcKoH 182 Be3pa6omu!.Ja, nepecmpoiJ./(Q 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa Pecny6JlHKoH. Pa3JlH4HH Me:lKJl)' 4elllCKHM H CJlOBalJKHM pblHKaMH TpYlla npellCTaBJlHIOT C060H 3arallKY. no pa31leJleHHH B 1993 r. COKpall!eHHe BBD H npOMbllllJleHHOrO npoH3BOllCTBa B 06eHx pecny6JlHKaX 6blJlO 04eHb CXO)KHM. 3aHHToCTb COKpall!aJlaCb 60Jlee 6blCTPO B CJlOBaKHH, HO 3T0 He MO)KeT nOJlHOCTblO 06bHCHHTb ropa31l0 60Jlee BblCOKHH pOCT 6e3pa6OTHlJbl B CJlOBaKHH. PeCYPCbl, BbllleJleHHble B CJlOBaKHH Ha naCCHBHble H aKTHBHble nporpaMMbl 3aHHTOCTH B 1991-1993 IT. 6blJlH TaK)Ke 60Jlee 3Ha4HTeJlbHblMH (OT 01lHOH TpeTH 110 Tpex 4eTBepTeH). fioJlee Toro, 60JlblllaH 4aCTb npHpoCTa pacX01l0B B CJlOBaKHH HanpaB- JlflJlaCb Ha aKTHBHble, a He Ha naCCHBHble nporpaMMbl 3aHHTOCTH. K 4HCJlY B03MO)KHbIX 06bHCHeHHH OTHOCHTCH CJlellYIOIl!He: (a) llaHHble 06 06beMe npOH3BOllCTBa H 3aHHTOCTH B '-IelllcKoH Pecny6m1Ke CHJlbHO He1l00lJeHHBalOT pOCT 4aCTHoro ceKTopa H llpyrnx $OpM cnpoca Ha TPYll (TaKHx KaK pa60Ta B repMaHHH H ABCTpHH) H (6) CpellCTBa, HanpaBJleHHble Ha nporpaMMbl3aHHTOCTH B CJlOBaKHH MOrJlH HCnOJlb30- BaTbCH He TaK 3$$eKTHBHO, KaK B '-IelllcKoH Pecny6JlHKe. Mbl npHBOllHJlH pa3Ho06pa3Hbie llaHHble, rOBOpHI,YHe 0 TOM. 4TO cnpoc Ha TPYll B '-IP (H3MepeHHbIH KaK OTHOllleHHe 4HCJla eaKaHCHH K 4HCJleH- HOCTH 6e3pa60THbIX; 4HCJlO JlHlJ. MeHHlOl,YHX MeCTO pa60Tbi MHHyH 3Tan ;':;e3pa60THlJbl; H BepOHTHOCTb BblHTH H3 4HCJla 6e3pa60THbiX B llaHHOM MecHue) 6blJl Bblllle. Y Hac HeT cepbe3HbiX llaHHblX B nOWlep)KKY nyHKTa (6). 3a HCKJl104eHHeM Toro, 4TO CJlOBaKH B 1990-1991 IT. n03BOJlHJlH npOH3BOllHTb BbInJlaTY BblXOllHorO noc06HH H noc06HH no 6e3pa60THue 01lHOBpeMeHHo. B 06eHx pecny6JlHKaX 3alla4eH Ha CJlellYlOIl!I1e HeCKOJlbKO JleT HBJlHeTCH 06ecne4eHHe Toro, 4T06bl pe$opMbl npl1BeJll1 K BHllHMblM BblrOllaM 11 H36e)KaHl1e COUl1aJlbHblX TpeHHH. 3TO 03Ha4aeT, 4TO ynop 6YlleT He06xollHMO CMeCTHTb Ha B03pO)KJleHHe 3KOHOMH4eCKoro pOCTa H nOBblllleHHe YPOBHH )KH3HH. Ha OCHOBaHHH HacTofll,Yero I1CCJle1l0BaHHfI Mbl C4HTaeM peWalOIl!I1MH CJle1lYlOI,YHe Bonpocbl nOJlI1TI1KH: • MHorne KpynHble $HpMbl 110 CHX nop He3$$eKTHBHbl. 3KOHOMI14eCKOe nOJlO)KeHHe MHornx 113 3THX $HpM 60Jlee HeYCTOH4H- BO, 4eM 6blJl0 llBa-Tpl1 rOlla Ha331l. Mx 3a1l0Jl)KeHHOCTb B03pOCJla, BHYTpeHHHe I1HBeCTI1UHI1 6blJlH OTJlO)KeHbl, a npl1TOK 3anallHoro Kanl1TaJla 6blJl orpaHH4eH. PYKOBOllCTBO 6blJlO 3aHHTO npOlJeCCOM npHBaTI13alJHI1 H JlH4HbiM 060raI,YeHHeM 3a C4eT rocYllapCTBa. B TO BpeMH KaK '-IelllcKafi Pecny6JlHKa 110 CI1X nop 6blJla 4pe3Bbl4aHHO Ylla4JlHBa B COXpaHeHl111 HH3Koro YPOBHH 6e3pa60THUbl, 3TOT pe3YJlb- TaT 110 CI1X nop 3aBI1CeJl OT )KeJlaHHH rOCYllapCTBa I1CnOJlb30BaTb nOCTYnneHHH OT npl1BaTH3aUHH llJlfl nOWlep)KaHHH npellnpl1HTHH llHa t{eWCKall Pecny6JlUKa U CJlO(JaKUR 183 nnaBY», HCnonb3Y1'I6aHKOBCKYJO CHCTeMY. a TalOKe CBOH B03MO>KHOCTH cTHMynHpoBaTb pa3BHTHe qaCTHOrO ceKTopa H C03.r1aBaTb 60nbwoe KOJ1H'IeCTBO BpeMeHHO . BceMllpHhli< SlIHk. rOCkOMCTaT POCCIiH. I1cnollb3Y.fI KaK CBOAHble AaHHble, TaK 11 AaHHble OnpOCOB, Mbl COCpeAOTO~I1MCH Ha 06'b.flCHeHl1l1 3THX C06bITI1M, I1CXOA.fI 113 peaKlJl1l1 OCHOBOnOllaralOlllerO 311eMeHTa Cl1CTeMbl: POCCl1MCKOM l1HAYCTpl1allb- HOM q>l1PMbl. HeKOTOpOe BpeM.fI Mbl nOCB.fITl1M y.iop.flAo~eHI1IO 11 COrllaCOBaHHOMY Onl1CaHl1lO l1MelOIJ!eMC.fI I1Hq,OPMalJl1l1. "lJl1CTble 113MeHeHl1H 3aH.fITOCTH B rocYAapCTBeHHOM CeKTOpe HeBelll1Kl1, XOT.fI Mbl 11 Ha611IOAaeM AOBOllbHO M0IJ!Hble nOTOKl1. JICHO, ~TO Ha npeAnpl1.f1TH.fIX 3aH.fITO 3Ha~l1TellbHOe ~l1CllO 1136b1TO~HbIX pa60THl1KOB. Hl1)Ke B HaCTO.fllJ!eM rllaBe Mbl HenOCpeACTBeHHO CB.fI)KeM 3TO .fIBlleHl1e C lJelleBOM q,YHKlJl1eM npeAnpl1.fITl1M, KOTOPblMI1 npel1MYl!leCTBeHHO BllaAelOT l1X pa60THl1KI1. 11 113110)KI1M CBOl1 MblClll1 no nOBoAY Blll1.f1Hl1.f1 HeraTI1BHblX BHeWHI1X B03AeHCTBI1H. ,I:lll.fl npeAnp".f1TH.fI, B OCHOBHOM np"HaMe)KalllerO ero pa60THl1KaM, 1136blTOI.JHa.fl 3aH.fITOCTb MO)KeT 6blTb OnTI1MallbHblM peWeHl1eM, HO B YCllOBl1.f1X He611arOnpl1.f1THoro POCCUR 189 BHeWHero nOTp.flCeHIUI OHO 6YAeT COKpaI,lJ,aTb 3aH.fITOCTb, CHH:>Ka.fl H36blTOlJHYIO 3aH.fITOCTb, lJT06bl COXpaHHTb 3apa6OTHYIO nnaTY Ha npe:>KHeM ypOBHe. YlJHTblBa.fl 3aTpaTbi Ha YOOnbHeHHe pa6OTHHKOB, TpaeKTOpH.fI nepexoAa K CTa6HnbHblM 3HalJeHH.fIM 3aH.fITOCTH H 3apa60THOH nnaTbl MO:>KeT npHBeCTH K nepBOHalJanbHOMY POCTY H36blTOlJHOH 3aH.fITOCTH. Haw BblBOA 3aKJ1lOlJaeTC.fI B TOM, lJTO HeCMOTp.fl Ha npH3HaKH nO.flMeHH.fI TpaAH!.lHOHHOH CBR3H Me:>K.rtY nOBblweHHeM 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl H 3KOHOMHlJeCKOH aKTHBHOCTblO, AnR POCCHHCKoro pblHKa TpY.Qa OCTalOTC.fI xapaKTepHbl HH3KaR Me:>KpernOHanbHaH M06HnbHOCTb, CYI,IJ,eCTBeHHaH He3Q:>Q:>eKTHBHOCTb paCnpeAeJ1eHHH pa60lJeH CHnbl H KpynHble pa3Mepbl H36blTOlJHOH 3aHHTOCTH. YCTpaHe- HHe 3THX TPYAHOCTeH 6YAeT 3aBHCeTb OT H3MeHeHHH KaK B MaKp03KO- HOMHlJeCKOH nOnHTHKe - oc06eHHO B 06naCTH AOTa!.lHH npOH3BOA- CTBeHHOMY ceKTOpy - TaK H nOBe.QeHlJeCKHX YCTaHOBOK, B COOTBeT- CTBHH C KOTOPblMH npe.QnpH.fITHH npHHHMalOT peweHHH OTHOCHTeJ1bHO 3aH.fITOCTH H 3apa60THOH nnaTbl. npOCTaH nepeAalJa THTYna c06CTBeH- HOCTH pa60THHKaM npe.QnpHHTHH BP.flA nH caM a no ce6e MO:>KeT npHBeCTH K TaKHM H3MeHeHHHM. KopolJe rOBopH, HCTHHHoe 3HalJeHHe 3THX ronOBOKpY:>KHTenbHbiX H3MeHeHHH MO:>KeT 6blTb Ha caMOM .Qene MeHee peBonlO\lHOHHbIM, lJeM 3TO Ka:>KeTCH Ha nepBblH B3rnHA. JIH6epaJIH3aUHSI ueH H HHtj:)nSlUHSI OCHOBOH cTa6HnH3a!.lHH 6blna nH6epMH3a!.lHH !.leH. CKalJOK !.leH B .fIHBape 1992 r. 6bln orpoMeH, HaMHoro Bblwe, lJeM Toro O:>KHAMH: no cpaBHeHHIO C npeAblAYI,IJ,HM MeCHueM !.leHbl npoH3BoAHTeneH nO.QCKOlJH- 2 nH Ha 382%, a !.leHbl nOTpe6HTeneH Ha 245%. nocne 3Toro e:>KeMeCHlJ- HaR HHQ:>n.fl!.lH.fI OCTaBanaCb BblCOKOH, HO nOCTeneHHO CHH:>KanaCb, o.QHaKo cytyeCTBeHHo HeOAHHaKOBO H HecTa6HnbHo no pernoHaM. Ho, KaK BHAHO H3 PHcYHKa 4-1, CKOPOCTb H3MeHeHH.fI ueH npoH3BoAHTeneH H nOTpe6HTenbcKHx !.leH CHOBa Ha4ana paCTH B IV KB. rO.Qa H CTa6HnH- 3HpoBanacb Ha ypoBHe 20-25% B MeC.fI!.l. UeHbl npoH3BOAHTeJ1eH pocnH 6blCTpee nOTpe6HTenbcKHx !.leH 60nbWYlO 4aCTb nepHoAa C 1991 no 1993 IT. '4aCTHlJHO ::ITO MO:>KHO 06'b.flCHHTb Bce TOH :>Ke pa3HH!.leH B CTeneHH nH6epanH3a!.lHH pa3nHlJHbiX BH.QOB !.leH. B 4aCTHOCTH, KaK BH.QHO H3 Ta6nHUbl4-2, H3MeHeHHe nOTpe6HTenbcKHx !.leH npOAOn:>Kano 2 3TO 06b14HO npHnHcblBalOT pa3MepaM CYl!!eCToooaowero K TOMY BpeMeHH HHQ:>nH\lHOHHOro Haoeca H36blTOlJHOH .QeHe:>KHOH Maccbl; HO 3TO COBceM He 04eBH.QHO, ecnH YlJeCTb ero pa3MbIBaHHe, Y:>Ke HalJaBWeeCH YCKopHBWeHC.fI HHQ:>nH!.lHeH B 1991 r. (Cottarelli, and Blejer, 1992). 190 Be3pa6omul.Ja, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa npOHCXO~HTb04eHbHepaBHOMepHOnOperHOHaM,4TOCBH~eTenbCTByeT 0 pa3nH4HbiX H WHPOKO paCnpOCTpaHeHHblX MeXaHH3MaX perynHpoBa- HH.R lJeH Ha OCHOBHble TOBapbl, BXO~.RWHe B nOTpe6HTenbCKYlO KOp3HHy. npHMe4aTenbHO. 4TO e)ICeMeC.R4HOe H3MeHeHHe lJeH npOH3BO,nHTeneH 3 B pa3nH4HbiX perHOHaX XapaKTepH30BanOCb MeHbWHM pa36poCOM. K KOH!JY 1992 r. 06a Ha60pa lJeH MeH.RnHCb 60nee cornaCOBaHHO. TeM He MeHee, pa3pblB OCTaBanC.R 60nbWHM. He06xo~HMo BbI.RCHHTb. n04eMY BHOBb B03HHKna HHqln.RlJH.R nocne CTa6HnH3alJHH B III KB. 1992 r. H n04eMY. BonpeKH TOMY. 4T0 MO)ICHO 6blno 6bl O)ICH~aTb, B pOCTe lJeH n~HpOBanH lJeHbl npOH3Bo,nH- TeneH, a He nOTpe6HTenbCKHe lJeHbl. B OCHOBe BblCOKOH HH- <10 I 150 I C III: :liD ~ 10 0 RHB91 Cetn.93 o OnTOBwe LleMW + n0tpe6MTe11IoCKHe l{eHId OTMeTI1M, O,QHaKO, tlTO s Te4eHI1e nepBOH n0J10SI1Hbl 1992 r. nl1KI1 ueH npoI13Bo,nI1TeJ1eii MOryT 6bITb S UeJ10M 06'b.RCHeHbI113MeHeHI1- .RMI1 peryJ1l1pyeMblx UeH, oco6eHHo Ha 3HeprnlO. KpoMe TOro, UeHbl Ha npOMe)!(yT04Hble 11 Kanl1TaJJbHble TOBapbl POCJ111 6oJ1ee 6bICTPO, 4TO roSOpHT 0 TOM, 4TO npe,nnpl1f1TI1.R, ToprylOllll1e ,npyr C ,npyroM 11, cne,nOBaTeJ1bHO, HaKanJ1I1BalOlJ.\l1e B3al1MHbie HenJ1aTe)!(l1, ytlI1TbIBaJ111 sepORTHOCTb nOJ1yt1eHI1.R BnOCJ1e,nCTBI1I1 rocy,napCTBeHHOH no,n,nep)!(KI1 11 6blJ111 OTHOCI1TeJ1bHO paSHO,QyWHbI K UeHaM (Koen, and Phillips, 1993). ::lTO 11 np01130WJ10 so speMR B3al1M03a4eTa HenJ1aTe)!(eii S I1IOJ1e- 192 Be3pa6omUl-la, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa aBr)'CTe 1992 r. Ho :ITO Bce el!!e He 06bllCHlIeT COXpaHlIlOl!!eHClI aCHMMeTpHH, Y4HTblBall TpaeKTOpHIO 06beMa npOH3BOJlCTBa. npOH3BO.llCTBO, geHbI Ha npO.llYKUHIO H MOHOnOJIbHag BJIaCTb B 1992 r. HaUHOHaJlbHblH JlOXOJl H npOMbllUJleHHOe npoH3BoJlCTBO COlnSl\HS (II , ..ellellllc ,ll.lIarJa3OII K-T HONHHaJtlloa.U sap. MaTa ,ll....na3O!l K-T fiepHo.II, • %%) MIIR_ M""e. BapH&I.\HH (H'MeHCHHC • %%) MUR. MaIp. II,S 19,7 2,'10 0.03 15,6 2106S 3 IS5 0,45 OKTal>p. 22,9 42,0 9,00 O,OS 19,9 27 153 3372 0,47 Hoal>Pb 26,1 47,0 9,00 O,OS 19,4 28 371 3718 0,45 ,TlCIt&6p. 25,9 36,0 12,00 0,04 Sl,9 44 489 6474 0,44 I993Jfllaap. 26,S I22,S 0,50 0,13 -4,S 44 8S8 S S37 0,48 ""'.p"", 15,7 49,0 12,00 0,04 24,3 54 SI7 7132 0,47 Mapr 21,4 38,2 14,10 0,04 23,S 72777 89S8 0,50 An.,..,.. 24,7 95,S 13,40 0,10 29,7 88 679 11906 0,48 Mail 19,3 29,S S,8O 0,04 22,7 122 084 16102 0,50 194 5e3paOOmUtla, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbIHOK mpyoa PHCYHOK 4-2. I13MeHeHHe 06'beMa npOH3BOACTBa no OTHOllleHHIO K 113MeHe~~ OTHOCI1Te:,",bHbix yeH. MapT 1993 r./ SlHBapb 1991 r. 1.3 1.2 o IJ,BeTHhle MeTllJDThI 1.1 1 0.9 o II:um;eBalI npOM-CTb 0.8 0.7 0.6 o 0.5 TOIIJlI:IBBalI np-CTL 0.4 0.3 0.2 r- 0.1 r- Bce oTpaclm ° -0•1 ' q epBaJI MeTaJIl'IypnuI 0 Xm.mqeCKaJI If Bec:pTeXHMlf'leCKaJI -0.2 0 3HepreTBKa -0.3 MarmmocTpoeHBe 0 -0.4,.. JI~I'KaJI ,n;epeBoo~atUtTbnuuom:1UI -0.5 ! ! liTpoB}{aTePJlam..I, -0.6 -0.5 u-O.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 n3MeBeHHe 06'beMa npOIf3BO,ll;CTBa o OrpacIDI npOMJ.IIIIJJeHHOCTB Ta6nH~a 4-3. OTpaCnl1 npOMbllllJleHHoCTH: 06'beM npOH3BO.llCTSa, 3aHSlTOCTb, peaJlbHaSl 3apa60THaSl nJlaTa (AecpJlHp. no nOTpe6HT. yeHaM), OTHOCHTeJlbHble yeHbi H H3MeHeHHSI 3apa6oTHoH nJlaTbI, 1992 r./1991 r. 06.. eM 3.,U· OTHOCH- OTHO 1"C.nhHbiC nJJ.au 3ap.ruraT3 OTPac.n. BO,lI.CTltl nem.I S3p.WI8T8 9UepreTHKa ·6,9 9,7 ·3,4 25,S ·24,7 TonmfBllu ·10,0 ·11,4 86,2 48,7 .9,2 IIepa8.ll MeTaJ1J1ypnur ·17,6 2,2 27,S 27,S ·23,9 UBCTHU MeTaJIJ1yprHK ·12,2 2,8 126,7 38,9 ·21,4 XaMU4eCRaJf ·19.9 -aKT, 4TO HaH60JIblllHM pOCT peHTa6eJIbHOCTH Ha6JIIOIlanCH B TOnJIHBHOH npOMbllllJIeHHOCTH, MO)f(HO C4HTaTb O,l.lHHM H3 MexaHH3MOB pacnpoCTpa- HeHH.R :noro pOCTa, XOT.R 3TO, KOHe4HO, He 06'bHCH.ReT O,l.lHOBpeMeHHblM pOCT peHTa6enbHOCTH B 60JIblllHHCTBe OTpaCJIeM. OTpaCJIH C na,l.lalOIUeM peHTa6eJIbHOCTblO. B 60nbllleM Mepe 3aBHC.RI,UHe OT cnpoca HaCeJIeHH.R, 196 Be3pa6omUl-Ia. nepecmpoiiKa 3KOHOMUKU U pblHOK mpyda - JIernaH, nMl,ueBaH npOMblWJIeHHOCTb H CTPOHTeJ1bCTBO - CHH3HJIH HJIH Ol.feHb He3Hal.fHTeJIbHO nOBblCHJIH peHTa6eJIbHOCTb, \.fT0 YKa3blBaeT Ha B03MO>KHYJO pOJIb pa3JIHl.fHbIX 6lOn>KeTHblX orpaHHl.feHHH Ha !f>0PMHPO- BaHHe MeH. Ho B MeJIOM CBfl3b Me)K.Qy 06beMoM npOH3BOnCTBa H H3MeHeHHeM peHTa6eJIbHOCTH cJIa6a H rOBopHT B nOJIb3Y CyI,UeCTBOBa- HHfI PbIHOl.fHOH BJIaCTH, BOOHHKalOl,UeH B pe3YJIbTaTe KOHMeHTpaMHH H CelMeHTaMHH TOBapHblX PblHKOB (Brown, Ickes, and Ryterman, 1993), npHl.feM 06a 3!f>!f>eKTa yCyry6JIfIJ1HCb paCnanOM CCCP H YCHJIHBaJIHCb cJIa60 pa3BHToH cHCTeMoH cHa6>KeHHH. PHCYHOK 4-4. 06beM npoH3BOnCTBa H H3MeHeHHe npH6b1JIH; npennpHH- THH C MOHOnOJIbHOH BJIaCTblO Ha pblHKe (onpoc BceMHpHoro 6aHKa) • . .. . ... {: r:: : . .. .~------~----~------- ·~~~~AO~~.r ••••~,.-. I'1poMsIIoAc:no PHCYHOK 4-5. 06beM npoH3BOnCTBa H H3MeHeHHe npH6b1JIH; npennpmt- THH, He 06JIanalOl,UHe MOHOnOJIHCTHl.feCKOH BJIaCTblO Ha pblHKe (onpoc) • .. .,. ... • • .... .. ,... ....,j;-,.....=-..=- ... ...." .--:l ,.....,,,....-:I.. r-;~.,---,.. .. I"IpoIGIIOACTIO Pe3YJIbTaTbi 06CJ1enOBaHHH Ha ypOBHe npennpHHTHH nonTBep- )K.QalOT 06l,Uee nOBblWeHHe YCTOHl.fHBOCTH npH6blJIeH B 1992 r., HO OnHOBpeMeHHo el,Ue 60JIee nOnl.fepKHBalOT, l.fTO MOHonOJIHCTHl.fecKaH BJIaCTb 6blJIa Ba>KHOH neTepMHHaHToH ypOBHH npH6blJIeH (nonp06Hoe onHcaHHe CM. Commander. and others, 1993b). PHCYHKH 4-4 H 4-5 nOKa3blBalOT HBHO pa3HOHanpaBJIeHHOe nBH>KeHHe peaJIbHOH BaJIOBOH npH6blJIH npennpHflTHH. HMelOl,UHX MOHOnOJIHCTHl.fecKYIO n03HMHIO Ha POCCUR 197 pblHKe H He HMelOl:I.lHX PblHOt.lHOA BllaCTH; TOllbKO npH6blllH nOCllellHHX HCnblTam-t B 1992 r. 6e3yclloBHO oTpHuaTeJ1bHOe B03lleACTBHe. ,I:(nSl 3Hat.lHTeJ1bHOA llOllH npellnpHSlTHH, 0611allalOl:I.lHX MOHonOllHCTHt.leCKOA BllaCTblO Ha pblHKe, na)leHHe 06'beMOB npoH3BollCTBa cOnpOBO:lK)lanOCb yaellHt.leHHeM BallOBoH npH6blllH. CbHHaHcoBaSl CTopoHa KapTHHbl 6bllla 6bl HenollHoH 6e3 Y\.IeTa M0I:l.lHblX nOTOKOB llOTaY,HH H Cy6CHllHH, BblllellSleMbiX KaK SlBHO, t.lepe3 61Oll:)l(eT, TaK H t.lepe3 uelleBble H npOt.lHe Kpe)lHTbl.a 1992 r. t.lepe33TH KaHanbl npellnpHSlTHSI nOllY\.lHllH OKOllO 7,5% aan. 3aHSITOCTb HaH6011ee nopa3HTeJ1bHa aCHMMeTpHSI peaKUHH 3aHJtTOCTH Ha H3MeHe- HHe 06'beMOB npOH3BOllCTBa. 061:1.laSl t.lHClleHHOCTb 3aH1ITbiX cOKparn- llaCb npHMepHo Ha 370 KaK B 1991 r., TaK H B 1992 r., Torlla KaK 3a 3TH llBa rolla Ban ynan nOt.lTH Ha 3070. a npOMblWlleHHOCTH 3aHJtTOCTb COKpal:l.lanaCb TeMnaMH OT 370 llO 5% B roll. I> a 1993 r. 3aHSlTOCTb B CTa6HllH3HpoBallacb, HO OHa 6011ee 6blCTpO COKpal:l.lanaCb B npoMblwlleHHoCTH B Tet.leHHe BTOPOH nOllOBHHbl rolla (Ta611Hua 4-1 H PHC}'HOK 4-6 ). rpalPHK npOMbIWlleHHO- ro npoH3BollCTBa B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT H3MeHeHHSI 3aHJtTOCTH nOKa3b1BaeT nOllO:)l(HTellbHYIO KoppellSlUHIO llBYX nepeMeHHblX, HO C cHllbHeHweR aCHMMeTpHeA peaKUHH. Jlanee, 6011ee 8070 061:1.lero t.lHClla yaollbHeHHR npHxollHTCSI Ha H3MeH~HHe 3aHJtTOCTH B MawHHoCTpoeHHH, a no\.ITH B nOllOBHHe oTpaclleR Ha caMOM llelle Ha611lOllanocb t.lHCTOe yaellHt.leHHe 3aHJtTOCTH B Tet.leHHe rolla. Ho 3TO llHWb t.laCTb HCTOpHH. a TO BpeMSI KaK COKpal:l.leHHe pa60t.lHX MeCT 6blllO Ot.leHb orpaHHt.leHHbIM, t.lTO npHBO,llHllO K CHllbHOMY nalleHHIO npOH3BOllHTellbHOCTH TpYlla, H3MeHeHHe npOllOll:)I(HTellbHOC- TH pa60t.lero llHH 6blll0 CYl:I.leCTBeHHblM, t.lTO oClla611Sl110 cna)l npOH3BO- 7 llHTellbHOCTH. OT 2070 llO 3370 npellnpHHTHR, oc06eHHo KpynHblx, C t.lHCllOM pa6OTHHKoB 6011ee 1 000 t.lellOBeK, OTnpaBHllH cYI:I.leCTBeHHYIO t(:OKpal!!eHHe pa60t.lHX MeCTB npoMblwlleHHoCTH, npeJlWeCTBYlOl:I.lee 3TOMY nepHollY, npHBello K TOMY, t.lTO K 1991 r. 061:1.laSl BeJ1Ht.lHHa 3aHHTOCTH 6bllla Ha 870 HH:)I(e, t.leM B 1986 r., Korlla 3aHHTOCTb B npoMblwlleHHoCTH llOCTHrlla CBoero nHKa. 7qTo KacaeTCH 3aTpaT Ha COKpal:l.leHHe nepcoHalla, 3aMeTHM, \.ITO 3aKOH 0 3aHHTOCTH 06H3blBaeT BbIDllat.lHBaTb BbIXO)lHOe noc06He, paBHoe no KpaAHeA Mepe TpeM MeCHt.lHbIM OKllallaM, He rOBopH Y:)I(e 0 B03MO:)l(HOCTH conpOTHBlleHHH yaollbHeHHHM BHYTPH npellnpHHTHH. 198 5e3pa6omulJa, nepecmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyaa 4aCTb CBOeH pa604eH CHnbl B KpaTKOCp04HblH HnH BblHY)I(,!leHHblM OTnYCK. TaKaR pealqlHR npe06mm.ana CpeJl.H roCYJl.apCTBeHHbIX npeJl.npHRTHH C CepeJl.HHbl 1992 r. ,llaHHble rOCKoMCTaTa nOKa3b1Ba1OT, 4TO B aBryCTe 1992 r. OKono 8% 3aHRTbiX B npoMblwneHHoCTH HaXOJl.HnHCb B BblHY)I(,!leHHOM OTnycKe HnH pa60TanH HenonHblH pa604HH Jl.eHb. K HIOHIO 1993 r. 11% 3aHRTbIX B npoMblwneHHoCTH n06blBanH B BblHY)I(,!leHHblX ornycKax, a 4% pa60TMo HenonHblH pa604HH Jl.eHb, K MapTY ::ITa Jl.onR HaXOJl.RI!!HXCR B BblHY)I(,!leHHblX OTnYCKax COKpaTHnaCb Jl.0 5%. ,llaHHble 06cneJl.OBaHHH nOJl.TBep)KJl.aIOT 3TH BenH4HHbi H Jl.nR cepeJl.HHbl 1993 r. 8 EcnH ::ITO npHHRTb 3a rpy6YJO MepYTeKYIIleH H36blT04HOH 3aHRTOCTH. MO)KHO BHJl.eTb, 4TO BbICB060)J{- Jl.eHHe H36blT04HOH pa604eH CHnbl B pRJl.bI 6e3pa60THb1X nOJl.HRnO 6b1 ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THlJbl no KpaHHeH Mepe Ha 300%. PHCYHOK 4-6. POCCHR, npoMblwneHHoe npOH3BOJl.CTBO H 3aHRTOCTb. RHBapb 1991 r. - MapT. 1993 r. lm,-------------------------------~----------------, o.N - i ~ .,.... o.e o..u .,.... III: ( t OJ! 0.75 if S I 0.1 o..u ll1t1·1_ CJ IIwnycK .,. 3aHll'l'OCTlo Ba)KHbIM MOMeHTOM RBnReTCR TO, 4TO 061JleH peaKYHeH B:3TH lJHCPPbl B3RTbI H3 pernOHanbHOrO 0630pa BijI10M, KOTOPblH TalOKe nOKa3blBaeT. 4TO 75% nHlJ. HaXOJl.RI!!HXCR B BbIHY)KJl.eHHOM OTnYCKe. H3X0Jl.HnHCb B HeM OT OJl.HOH Jl.O 4eTblpex HeJl.enb B KBapTM. POCCUR 199 npe.llnpHHTHH 6blno npO.llOn:>KeHHe "npH.Ilep:>KHBaHHH" pa60THHKOB.Ila:>Ke nepe.ll nHUOM Cepbe3HOrO cna.lla npOH3BO.llCTBa. ::lTO MO)f(HO nOHHMaTb KaK O:>KH.IlaHHe n03HTHBHbiX H3MeHeHHH B 6Y.IlYJ,UeM H, Cne.llOBaTenbHO, pOCTa K03cpcpHUHeHTa 3arpY3KH MOIJ.!.HOCTeH. Ho 3T0 TaK:>Ke OTpa:>KaeT TOT cpaKT, 4TO npe.llnpHHTHR HMe~T 60nee WHpOK~ COUHanbH~ 9 CPYHK!!H~, KOTopaH n06Y)f(,IlaeT HX K 6naroTBOpHTeJ1bHOCTH. A npHHHTHe peweHHH 0 HaCHnbCTBeHHblX yeonbHeHHHx MO:>KeT 6bITb 3aTpY.llHeHO el!le H nOToMY, 4TO B 3Ha4HTenbHOM 4Hcne cnY"laeB npe.llnpHHTHH HBnH~TCH HCT04HHKOM WHPOKOro cneKTpa noc06HH H .Ilpyrnx: BcnOMoraTenbHblX .Il0XO.ll0B .IlnH pa60THHKOB. nOTepH pa60Tbi C 60nbwoH BepOHTHOCTb~ Be.lleT K nOTepe .IloCTYTIa K 3THM noc06HHM, npH4eM 3a4aCT~ anbTepHaTHBHble HCT04HHKH TaKoro pOAa .Il0XO.llOB He H3BeCTHbl. nOTOKH pa60Qeit CDJIbl Ha pblHKe TpYJla CBO.llHble .IlaHHble YKa3b1Ba~T Ha CHnbH~ HHep!!H~ 3aHHTOCTH, HO 3a 3THM 04eBH.IlHO CKPbIBa~TCH KpynHble nOTOKH pa604eH CHnbl, KaK MO:>KHO BH.IleTb H3 PHCYHKa 4-7. KpoMe Toro, 4TO H3 Hero BH.IleH YCTOH4HBblH YPOBeHb HaHMa H HH3KaH H COKpaIJ.!.a~IJ.!.aHCH .IlonH MaCCOBblX YBonbHeHHH npH COKpaIJ.!.eHHH WTaTOB, .IlaHHble CBH.IleTenb- CTB~T 0 TOM, 4T0 B n~60M OT.IleJ1bHO B3HTOM MecHye 1992 r. H I KB. 1993 r. OKono 4% pa60THHKOB rOCY.IlapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa MeHHno MeCTO pa60TbI. YpoBeHb yeonbHeHHH H HaHMa HOBblX pa60THHKoB B 27% H 24% COOTBeTCTBeHHO, 6ro COMHeHHH, BbICOK, no KpaHHeH Mepe no cpaBHeHH~ C .IlPyrHMH CTpaHaMH BOCT04HOH EBponbl, H 6blno 6bl Y.IlHBHTenbHO, ecnH 6b1 npOCTaH MO.llenb pa604ero KOHTpOJ1H, npHBO.llH- xyaH K COKpal!leHH~ 3aHHTOCTH 3a C4eT eCTeCTBeHHoro Bbl6blTHH pa60THHKOB, HBnHJ1aCb OCHOBHOH. BbiweYKa3aHHbie BeJ1H4HHbi nO.llTBep)f(,lla~TCH proynbTaTaMH nepBblX .IlByx paYH.IlOB 06cne.llOBaHHH, npOBe.lleHHOrO BCeMHpHblM BaHKOM B MOCKOBCKOH 06naCTH (6onee rny60Koe H3J10:>KeHHe proynb- TaTOB 06CJ1e.llOBaHHH CM. B Commander, and others, 1993b) . .llaHHble 9g 0630pe BceMHpHoro BaHKa 60nee TpeTH npe.llOpHHTHH H3 Bbl60PKH OTBeTHJ1H, 4T0 B III-IV KB. 1993 r. OHH coxpaHHnH H36b1T04- H~ pa604YJO CHJ1Y. B OTBeT Ha Bonpoc, n04eMY OHH He yeOJ1HJ1H nHWHHX pa60THHKOB, OKono 50% CKa3aJ1H, 4TO B 6Y.IlYlYeM O:>KH.IlaeTCH pOCT npOH3BO.llCTBa, TOr.lla KaK n04TH 25% cocnanHCb Ha OTCYTCTBHe cpHHaHcoBblX aaTpY.IlHeHHH. IOpH.IlH4eCKHe CJl0)f(HOCTH H conpOTHBne- HHe pa604Hx OKa3anHCb B 4Hcne np04HX OTBeTOB. 200 Be:1pa6omul.Ja, nepecrnpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoo OTHOCSlTCSI K III H IV KB. 1992 r. H no):tTBep>KJlalOT, tfTO BaJlOBbie nOTOKH AeilcTBHTeJlbHO BeJlHKH; 3a O):tHH TOJlbKO KBapTaJl OT 8% ):to 10% pa60tfeH CHJlbl H3 HaweH Bbl60PKH MeHSlJlO MeCTO pa60Tbi. HaCTOJlbKO ~e YAHBHTeJlbHOH SlBJlSleTCSI OTHOCHTeJlbHaH YCTOHtfHBOCTb HaHMa. BCJleACTBHe 3TOro K03ij>ij>H!!HeHTbI tfHCTblX yaOJlbHeHHH no pa3JlHtfHbiM KaTeropHflM npe):tnpHSlTHH 6blJlH HeBeJlHKH, a B nOCJleAHeM KBapTaJle 1992 r. Aa~e CHH~aJlHCb (Ta6JlHUa 4-4). XOTSI tfHCJIO BaKaHcHH, oc06eHHo 3apernCTpHpoBaHHbix B 61Opo no TPYAOYCTpOHCTBY, ynaJlo nOtfTH AO HYJlSl, 0611!afl KapTHHa cBH):teTeJlbCTByeT 0 3HatfHTeJlbHOM ):tBH~eHHH pa60tfeH CHJlbl Ha pblHKe TpY):ta, npHtfeM tfHCJIO ):t06POBOJlb- HbiX nepexo):toB C pa60Tb1 Ha pa60TY OCTaeTCH OtfeHb 60JlbWHM. PHCYUOK 4-7. POCCHSI. BaJIOBbIe nOTOKH pa60tfeH CHJIbl, 1992 r. ... 1.1 u 'oO 1.1 U 1.1 I ... OJ ... ..1 ... U U OJ! .' • 1. 11 1.1 Millc.t.,. + ~ 0 8T.lI.no~unarn B Ta6JlHue 4-5 3TO HBJleHHe BHAHO 60JIee tfeTKO. B 060poTe pa60tfeH CHJlbl npe06JlaAalOII!YIO pOJlb HrpalOT yaOJlbHeHHSI no c06CTBeHHoMY ~eJlaHHIO, Tor):ta KaK Ha COKpall!eHHfI WTaTOB - flBHble peweHHfI 0 HaCHJlbCTBeHHOM BbICB060>KJleHHH - B yeJlOM npHxo):tHTCfI MeHbwafi AOJIfi 0611!ero tfHCJla YBOJlbHeHHH. no BceH Bbl60pKe B ueJlOM B III H IV KB. 1992 r. Ha YBOJlbHeHHfI no co6CTBeHHoMY ~eJlaHHIO npHXOAHJIOCb 60Jlee 60% Bcex yaOJlbHeHHH, a Ha ):tOJlIO cOKpall!eHHfI WTaTOB - MeHee 30%. BOJlbWOH HHTepec Bbl3b1BaeT Bec KBaJlHij>HKaUH- OHHblX rpynn B pa3JIHtfHbIX THnax YBOJlbHeHHH. Tor):ta KaK CBblwe 70% yaOJIbHeHHH no c06CTBeHHoMY ~eJlaHHIO npHxoAHTCfI Ha npOMbIWJIeH- HbiX pa60tfHx. CBblwe 50% BbIHY>KJleHHbIX YBOJlbHeHHH npHXOJ:tHTCfI Ha TeXHHtfeCKHH nepCOHaJl (VlTP) H CJIy~ay!Hx. '4TO KacaeTCfI HaHMa POCCUR 201 HOBblX pa60THHKOB, OKOJlO 80% npHxollHTCH Ha npoH3BollCTBeHHbix pa604Hx. KapTHHa, Ka)l(eTCH, HCHa: nOllaBJIHIOIYee 4HCJlO YBOJlbHeHHH no c06CTBeHHoMY )l(eJlaHHIO H HaHMa HOBblX pa60THHKOB npHxollHTCH Ha npOMblWJIeHHblX pa604Hx. t..:{HCTaH nOTepH pa604Hx MeCT 6blJla CKOH!.1eHTpHpoBaHa B rpynnax CJlY)I(aijJ,Hx H llPyrnx KaTeropHH pa60THHKOB. nO-BHllHMOMY, nOHBJlHIOTCH TaK)I(e npH3HaKH lleIX. Upu"eQ8llu.; Ka",ropHH p••"epa I SOO qe.no ••". HCTO.... ax: 06c.ne)l.OBaIIHe Bce"HpHoro IlIlHU. CBOllHble llaHHble H llaHHble 06CJlellOBaHHR, B3RTbie BMeCTe, llalOT HaM llOCTaT04Hbie OCHOBaHHR llJlR nOCTpoeHHR CTpYKTypbl yaOJlbHeHHH. Bo-nepBbIX, ypOBeHb MaCCOBblX yaOJlbHeHHH 6blJl HeBeJlHK, He 60Jlee 8% B 1992 r. MCXOllR H3 npellnOJlO)l(eHHR, 4TO pe3YJlbTaTbi lO.llaHHble 06CJlellOBaHHR nOKa3b1Ba1OT, 4TO MY)I(CKaR pa604aR CHJla, 3aHRTaR nOJlHblH pa604HH lleHb, C lleKa6pR 1991 r. no lleKa6pb 1992 r. cOKpaTHJlaCb MeHee qeM Ha 2%; Ta )l(e KaTeropHR )l(eHCKOH pa604eH CHJlbI 6bIJIa cOKpaijJ,eHa n04TH Ha 16%. 202 Be3pa6omUl.Ja, nepeCmpOiiKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa 06CJIe,[lOBaHHfI npe,[lCTaBHTeJIbHbl, 3TO ,[lOJI)I(HO 03Ha4aTb, 4TO He 60JIee 25% yaOJIbHeHHH 6blJIH BbIHY)I(,[leHHbIMH. OT 50% ,[l0 60% COCTaBJIflJIH yaOJIbHeHHfI no c06CTBeHHoMY )l(eJIaHHlO; OCTaTOK, KaK Mbl npe,[lnOJIara- eM, Bbl6blJI H3 COCTaBa pa604eH CHJlbl. COnOCTaBJIfIfI 3TO C ,[laHHbIMH 0 6e3pa60THue H npe,[lnOJIO)l(HB, 4TO Bce YBOJIeHHble He no c06CTBeHHO- My )l(eJIaHHIO cpa3Y nOna,[lalOT B COCTaB 6e3pa60THblX, BH,[lHO, 4TO 3TOMY COOTBeTCTBOBaJIa 6bl ,[lOJIfI BblHY)I(,[leHHblX yaOJIbHeHHH, He npeBblllialOlJ!afl 15-20% Bcex YBOJIbHeHHH. no KpaHHeH Mepe 60% Bcex yaOJIeHHblX ,[lOJI)I(Hbl HenOcpe,[lCTBeHHO nepeXo,[lHTb Ha pa60TY B rocY,[lapCTBeHHblH HJIH 4aCTHblH ceKTop. HaM nOKa He Y,[laJIOCb pa3,[leJIHTb nOTOKH pa604eH CHJIbl B 3THX ceKTopax. 113MeHeHHfI 3aHflTOCTH, TaKHM 06pa30M, B OCHOBHOM 6blJIH 06YCJIOBJIeHbi yaOJIbHeHHflMH no c06CTBeHHOMY )l(eJIaHHIO H COKpalJ!e- HHeM 3aHflTOCTH no eCTeCTBeHHblM npH4HHaM. KaK MO)l(HO 06'bflCHHTb 3TOT npouecc? nOXO)l(e, 4TO OCHOBHoe 3Ha4eHHe HMeJIH TeKYlJ!He H3MeHeHHfI OTHOCHTeJIbHOrO pa3Mepa OnJIaTbl Tpy,[la B pa3JIH4HbiX cimpMax, no KpaHHeH Mepe Ha pblHKax TpY,[la, OXBa4eHHblX 06CJIe,[loBa- HHflMH. II 3TO HeCKOJIbKO napa,[lOKCaJIbHO; nOCKOJIbKY 3a nepHO,[lbl, npeBbIllialOlJ!He ,[lBa KBapTaJIa, H3MeHeHHfI OTHOCHTeJIbHOH 3apa60THoM nJIaTbl 6blJIH MeHee Bblpa)l(eHbl. 4eM Mbl Toro O)l(H,[laJIH. no KpaHHeH Mepe B npOH3BO,[lCTBeHHOM ceKTope (CM. pa3,[leJI jjA.JIbTepHaTHBHble B03MO)l(HOCTH»). TeM He MeHee. 3TH YH$pbl CKopeH Bcero He,[lOoyeHH- BalOT BeJIH4HHY BJIHflHHfI OTHOCHTeJIbHOH OnJIaTbl TPY,[la, OT4aCTH nOTOMY,4TO OHH He OTpa)l(alOT HH$OpMaUHIO 0 n0604HbiX 3apa60TKax H "TeHeBbIX" ,[lOXO,[lax, KOTopble ,[lOBOJIbHO 6blCTPO POCJIH, KaK Mbl nOKa)l(eM HH)I(e. XOTfI Mbl 06HapY)I(HJIH 3Ha4HTeJIbHOe 60JIee BblCOKYJO OnJIaTY Tpy,[la B 4aCTHOM ceKTope. 60JIblliafl 4aCTb CBH,[leTeJIbCTB YKa3blBaeT Ha orpOMHoe npe06JIa,[laHHe nepeXO,[la C pa60TbI B rOCY,[lapCTBeHHOM ceKTope Ha pa60TY B TOM )l(e rOCY,[lapCTBeHHOM ceKTope. Pe3KHe H3MeHeHHfI OTHOCHTeJIbHOrO pa3Mepa OnJIaTbI Tpy,[la B rOCY,[lapCTBeHHOM ceKTope 06bl4HO MO)l(HO OTCJIe,[lHTb no HeTpHBH- aJIbHblM KpaTKOBpeMeHHblM paCXO)l(,[leHHflM B JIHKBH,[lHOCTH rocy,[lap- CTBeHHblX npe,[lnpHflTHH, B03HHKalOlJ!HM BCJIe,[lCTBHe pa3HOH CTeneHH ,[lOCTyna K Kpe,[lHTaM H BpeMeHH HX nOJIY4eHHfI OT 6aHKOBCKOH CHCTeMbI H 61O,[l)l(eTa. 113MeHeHHfI OTHOCHTeJIbHOrO pa3Mepa onJIaTbl TPY,[la. BH,[lHMO. n06Y,[lHJIH MeHflTb MeCTO pa60Tbi 4yacTBHTeJIbHbiX K liB Cepe,[lHHe 1991 r. TOJIbKO B 25% cJIyqaes "3apa6OTHafl nJIaTa 6blJIa OCHOBHOH npH4HHoH YBOJIbHeHHH no c06CTBeHHoMY )l(eJIaHHIO; K Cepe,[lHHe 1993 r. 3Ta ,[lOJIfI Y,[lBOHJIaCb. POCCUR 203 pOcry 3apa60THOil nJlaTbl pa604HX H TeX, lITO He oJ!!Yl1!aJl onaCHOCTH nOTepnTb pa60TY. 3TOMY npoueccy cnoc06CTBOBaJlO 6bl OTJleJleHHe nOJlYlleHHn OCHOBHblX HeJleHe:lKHbIX JlbrOT HJlH 4aCTeii B03Harpa)l(,!leHHn 3a Tpy,l:l - oc06eHHO B «popMe npeJlOCTaBJleHHn )KHJlbH, - npe,l:lHa- 3Ha4eHHbiX JlJln npHBJle4eHHn pa60THHKOB Ha npe,l:lnpHnTHn, OT pa60Tbi Ha JlaHHOM npeJlnpHnTHH (CM. Commander, and Jackman, 1993). BOJlbW}'1O HH«popMaTHBH}'1O ueHHoCTb HMeJlH ,I:laHHble Ha CepeJlHHY 1993 r., KOTopble cBH,I:leTeJlbCTB}'1OT 0 TOM, 4TO npHMepHo 50% Bcex yaOJlHBWHXCn no c06CTBeHHoMY :lKeJlaHHIO yaOJlHJlOCb, He HMeR npeJlJlO:lKeHHn ,I:lpyroii pa60Tbl, xapalITepHCTHKa. B03MO:lKHan TOJlbKO B cHTya!JHH pe3KO 3aMeJlJlHBWerOcn TeMna pOCTa 6e3pa60TH!JbI H pOCTa 12 3apernCTpHpOBaHHbiX BaKaHCHii. Ta6J1Hua 4-5. YBOJlbHeHHn no BH,I:laM, III H IV KB. 1992 r. raOAR) Kanropu KI K2 10 K4 K5 CTaTItJl 1lI "., IV u, m n, IV u, mn, IV "., m n, IV ..., m"., IV It•• YBonbHeHHR no C06CTBeHHO- 62,2 90,1 52,3 50,9 S2,9 60,5 43,4 59,8 S2,7 66,7 MyacenaHHIO 3a HapyweHHe 8,S 2,6 3,2 3,1 3,4 3.3 7,7 10.2 4,7 4,9 ):I,HC~HnnHHbI CoKpa~eHHe 10.4 2,0 31,3 45,4 10,7 34,3 37,1 14,8 3,1 6,8 WTaTOB .o;pyme 19.9 5.3 13,2 0.6 33.0 1,9 11.8 15.2 39,S 21,6 TIP""''UlIJHe: KanropHH p33 ... P> Rp.. (K): 1=80-350; 2-351·700; 3-11)1·900; 4-90I·j SOO; 5= > I SOO'leno...:, Ii.TO"",",: 06cn<,llo .... R. Bce""PRoro SaRita, BTOPblM BOnpOCOM, Tpe6ylO1!!.HM 06'bRCHeHHn, nBJlReTCn cJleJl}'101!!.Hii; n04eMY npeJlnpHRTHH HIJJ.YT 3aMeHY yaOJlHBWHMCn pa60THHKaM, a He nonpocTy n03BOJlRlOT eCTeCTBeHHOMY npoueccy yaoJlbHeHHil n03a60THTbCR 0 COKpa1!!.eHHH 3aHnTOCTH, C nocne,l:l}'101I.lHM 12 16% peCnOHJleHTOB OTBeTHJlH, 4TO OHH, BeponTHo, yaOJlnTCR B 6J1H>KailweM 6YJlY1I.leM, 4HCJlO pecnoH,I:leHTOB B 4aCTHOM celITope, OTBeTHBWHX TaK :lKe, COCTaBHJlO 45%. I1CT04HHK JlaHHblX - o6CJleJlOBa- HHe BUl10M, HO 3TH ,I:laHHble COrJlaC}'1OTCH CO CBO,l:lHblMH ,I:laHHbIMH. 204 Be:Jpa6omu14a. nepecmpotl1w 31(OHOMUI(U U PblHOI( mpyiJa nOBblweHHeM cnpoca Ha pa6ot.{YJO cHny npH 60nee BblCOKOH OnnaTe Tpy,na Ha ,naHHOH ,nOJ1)KHOCTH. 3TO .RBneHHe, Ot.{eBH,nHO, BbIXO,nHT 3a paMKH 6e3pa3nHt.{H.R K HanHt.{HIO H36bITOt.{HOH pa6ot.{eH CHnbl H Tpy,nHO o€Yb1tCHHMO 6e3 yqeTa TeXHonorn4eCKHX npolJ,eCCOB. npOCTeHWHM cnoco6oM c,nenaTb 3TO 1tBJ11teTC1t npe,nCTaBneHHe TeXHonornH KaK TeXHonornH C qlHKcHpoBaHHblMH nponop!J,H1tMH Me:>t<,ny tPaKTopaMH npOH3Bo,nCTBa, T.e. JIeoHTbeBCKoHTeXHonornH. TaKoH no,nxo,n Ka>KeTC1t BepHblM, HCXO,n1t KaK H3 60nee paHHHX Hccne,nOBaHHH, OTMe4aBWHX HanH4He ,nOCTaT04HO MexaHH4eCKoro OTHOWeHH1t Me>K,ny 06beMOM OCHOBHOro H 4enOBe4eCKoro KanHTana, TaK H H3 aHanH3a 3KOHOMH4ec- Koro pOCTa B CCCP .13 B 3TOM KOHTeKCTe MO>KHO npe,nnonQ)KHTb, 4TO HeKOTopble pa60THHKH ,neHCTBHTenbHO He3aMeHHMbl H, cne,nOBaTenbHO, ,non>KHbl 6blTb 3aH1tTbl M1t TOro, 4T06bl ,npyrne pa60TanH npOH3Bo,nH- TeJ1bHO. «IlaKTHt.{eCKH peWeHH.R 0 3aH.RTOCTH onpe,nen.RIOTC.R TeXHonorn- eH, KOTOpa1t B pe3ynbTaTe H onpe,neJ1.ReT .R,npo 3aH.RTb1X Ha npe,nnpH1t- THH. COBepweHHo 1tCHO, 'ITO apryMeHT TeXHonornH npe,nnonaraeT, t.{TO B cnyqae MOCKOBCKoro pblHKa Tpy,na, ,naHHble 0 KOTOPOM npHBo,nHnHcb Bblwe, Mbl Ha6nlO,naeM ,(,netPHIJ,HTHbIH» PblHOK npoH3Bo,nCTBeHHblx pa604Hx, B03MO>KHO, B pe3ynbTaTe OTHOCHTenbHOH KOHlJ,eHTpa!J,HH npe,nnpH1tTHH, KOTOPblM Tpe6YJOTC1t pa604He BblCOKOH KBanHtPHKaYHH • .lla>Ke npH 3TOM BnonHe Bep01tTHO, 4TO C T04KH 3peHH1t npe,nnpH.RTH.R TeKyqeCTb pa604eH CHnbl MO>KeT npHBo,nHTb K COKpaI,UeHHIO ((3anaCOB» pa6oTHHKOB, o6na,nalOI,UHx Heo6xo,nHMOH npe,nnpH.RTHIO KBanHtPHKaUH- eH, H 3TO MO>KeT OT4aCTH 06b.RCH1tTb 1tBHoe CHH>KeHHe npoH3Bo,nHTenb- HOCTH. Mbf t.{aCTH4HO BepHeMC1t K 60nee tP0pManbHoMY paccMoTpeHHIO 3THX BonpOCOB B ((MO~enH HaKOnneHH1t H36blT04HOH pa604eH CHnbl», HH>Ke H B npHnO>KeHHH. C03JlaHHe pa60QHX MeCT: pOCT QaCTHOrO ceKTopa .llon1t 4aCTHoro H nonY4aCTHoro CeKTOpOB B o6lJ!eH 3aH.RTOCTH .RBHO CHnbHO B03pocna; 0tPHYHanbHble ,naHHble nOKa3blBalOT ee CKa40K B 1992 r. ,no nO'lTH 32% (Ta6nHUbl 4-6 H 4-7). Ho 3TH ,naHHble He 061t3aTenbHO ,nOCTOBepHbl. KpOMe Toro, Mbi ,non>KHbI pa3nH4aTb npoCTYJO nepe,na4y THTyna co6CTBeHHOCTH, 4TO ceH4ac npOHcxo,nHT B KpynHblX MaCWTa6ax, H 06pa30BaHHe HOBblX npe,nnpH1tTHH HnH HHHOBaYHH. 3,neCb Mbl MO>KeM nonaraTbC.R TonbKO Ha ,naHHble o6cne,no- l3:JnaCTH'IHOCTb 3aMeI,UeHH1t 06bl4HO COCTaBn.Rna He 60nee 0,1-0,2 (CM. Easterly, and Fischer, 1993). POCCUR .205 BaHHH, HO HX peaynbTaTbl llOBOnbHO HeO~aHHbI. CpaBHHTenbHO KpynHoe 06cnelloBaHHe HaCeneHHR, npOBelleHHOe B MapTe-Mae 1993 r. H OXBaTblBaBwee 6onbwHHCTBO pemoHoB, nOKa3anO, 'ITO OKonO 22% Bbl60PKH HMeno OCHOBHblM MeCTOM pa60Tbl nonyrocYllapcTBeHHble npellnpmlTHR - B OCHOBHOM npellnpHRTHR. HaXOllRqJHecR B npoyecce npHBaTH3aYHH, H 10% pa60TaJlH B 1.IaCTHblX «I>HPMax. OCHOBHaJl 1.IaCTb Bbl60PKH He BKJlI01.Iana cenbCKOX03RHCTBeHHble npettnpHJITHJI, HO B Hee BXOllHnH 3neMeHTbi CTaporo ((4aCTHoro» ceKTopa - KOOnepaTHBbI - H 14 BHOBb C03llaHHbie npennpH.RTHH. KaKOBbl OCHOBHble xapaKTepHCTHKH 1.IaCTHoro ceKTopa? BbiCOKaH llOn.R npOMblwneHHblX npettnpH.RTHH 033lla"IHBaeT, HO B HX 4Hcno B OCHOBHOM BXOllRT CTpOHTenbHbie npellDpH.RTH.R H npennplUl- THH, nepellaBaeMbie B 4aCTHbie PYKH. BHOBb C03llaHHble npellDPHJlTHH B OCHOBHOM B03HHKanH B cq,epe ycnyr - Manble q,HPMbI, 3anOnHHIOillHe np06enbl. B OCHOBHOM q,HHaHcHpyeMble He 3a C4eT 6aHKOBCKOH CHCTeMbl (de Melo and Ofer, 1993). nOMHMO TOro, 'ITO 3TH npettnpHH- TH.R HMetoT He60nbwoH KanHTan H He60nbwoe 1.IHcno 3aHHTbIX, MHome HX pa60THHKH 6b1nH 3aHRTbi Ha ycnoBHHx nH60 4aCTH1.IH0H 3aHJITOCTH, nH60 BTOPH4HOH 3aHHTOCTH, rlle 3T0 6b1no B03MO)KH0 coxpaHHH MeCTO Ta6nHua 4-6. ,n:onR 3aH.RTOCTH Ha rocYllapCTBeHHblx, nonyrocYllap- CTBeHHbrx H 4aCTHbiX npellnpH.RTH.Rx. KamezopUR 1990 z. 1991 z. 1992 z. 1993 z. rOCYllapCTseHHble 82,7 75,5 68,4 67,0 l.JaCTHble/CMewaHHble 11,3 13,5 31,7 nonY4aCTHbie 22,4 l.JaCTHbie 10,4 HCTO....m<: 1990-1992 IT.' r""""...rar '_811; 1993 r.· 06cnUO"",,1lC BUHOM; Un. 1992 r. pa60Tbl s roCYllapCTBeHHOM CeKTOpe S Ka4eCTSe CTpaXOSKH. BOnbWaH 4aCTb C03llaHHbIX pa604HX MeCT 6b1na HeHalle:lI(HOH, H nOKa3aTenl1 TeKyqeCTH 6btnH BbICOKH. B cepellHHe 1993 r. B 4acntOM ceKTope nepCneKTHSa 6b1Tb yooneHHblM (rp03Hl!!aR H Ol!!Yl!!aeMaR) 6b1na 1"06cnellOBa~He BUHOM npOBOllHnOCb BO II KB. 1993 r. 11 6b1no pa3lleneHO Ha HecKonbKO 4aCTeH, B Ka:lKAOH 113 KOTOpblX I1cnonb3OBaJ1- HCb pa3nl11.1Hble Bbl60PKH B 2-4 TbIC. 4enOBeK B 24-28 06naCTRX. 206 Be3pa6omUl.Ja, nepecmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyaa ci>aKTH4eCKH BbIwe, 4eM B rocy~apCTBeHHOM. 15 KaK MO)I(HO 6bIJIO o)lGf~aTb, HaH60JIbWafi ~OJIfi pecnOH~eHTOB paCCMaTpHBaJIa pa60TY B rocy~apCTBeHHOM ceKTope HJIH Ha COBMeCTHOM npe~npHflTHH KaK 60JIee npe~n04THTeJIbH)'IO, 4eM pa60ry B 4aCTHOM ceKTope. TaKHM 06pa30M, CKJIa~IBaeTCfI flCHoe Bne4aTJIeHHe 6bICTpO· paCTYIllero 4aCTHoro ceKTopa, B KOTOPOM no 60JIbWeH 4aCTH npe06JIa~aIOT HeYCTOH4HBbIe pa604He MeCTa, 3a4aCT)'IO HOCfllijHe xapaKTep BTOPH4- HOH 3aHflTOCTH. Ta6JIHua 4-7. OTpaCJIeBOe pacnpe~eJIeHHe 3aHflTOCTH: rocy~apCTBeH­ HbIe, nOJIyrocy~apCTBeHHbIe H 4aCTHbIe npe~npHflTHfI, II 1(8. 1993 r. Ka-reropu rOCV)l,apCTBeBHhle qaC'T'Hhle nOJlyrOCY.Q,apcTBellllbIe npOMblwneHHoCTb H CTpoHTenbCTBo 43,5 29,9 51,9 CenbcKoe XO:JHHCTBO 10,6 16,5 22,6 ToproBnH H ycnym 8,9 36,6 18,0 06pa:JoBaHHe H :JAPaBooxpaHeHHe 26,2 5,7 1,9 rOCYAapcTBeHHoe ynpaBneHHe/~HHaHcbI 10,6 6,2 4,8 \iOTO.... "": 06cJre",oB8RBe BL\\iOM. KaKOBbI xapaKTepHCTHKH npHBaTH3HpOBaHHbIX H npHBaTH3Hpy- IOlI!HXCfI npe~npHflTHH? 3~eCb Tpy~HO aHaJIH3HpOBaTb nepBH4H)'IO HHci>opMaUHIO, nOCKOJIbKY CTHMYJIbI, ~aBaeMbIe nporpaMMOH MaCCOBOH npHBaTH3aUHH (TIMTI), He BnOJIHe COOTBeTCTB)'IOT KaKOH-JIH60 npe~cKa3yeMoH HJIH 3ci>ci>eKTHBHOH COpTHpOBKe. TIpe~npHflTHfi C nepCneKTHBaMH HH:>Ke cpe~HHX H npoCTO nJIOXHMH He YlijeMJIflJIHCb no cpaBHeHHIO C YCTOH4HBbIMH npe~npHflTHflMH npH npHHflTHH peweHHfI a npOBe~eHHH npHBaTH3aUHH. B caMOM ~eJIe, eCJIH MbI npHMeM 3a rnnOTe3Y, 4TO CJIa6ble npe~npHflTHfi CKopee Bcero npOCylijeCTB)'IOT MeHbwee BpeMfI, TO HX BbIKyn pa60THHKaMH (no HaH60JIee 4aCTO 15,[lBa~uaTb O~HH npoueHT pecnOH~eHTOB, pa60TaIOlijHX B 4aCTHOM ceKTope, O:>KH~aJIH YSOJIbHeHHfI, H JIHWb 39% C4HTaJIH CBOIO pa60TY YCToH4HBOH, B rocy~apCTBeHHoM ceKTope - 13% H 60%, COOTBeTCTBeH- HO. POCCUR 207 Bbl6HpaeMOH CXeMe npHBaTH3aUHH, COrnaCHO KOTOPOH 51% aKUHH OCTaeTClI B PYKax Tpy,noBoro KOnneKTHBa) CKopee 6y,neT cnoc06CTBO- BaTb, 4eM npenllTCTBoBaTb 6b1CTpOMY H3'bllTHIO KBa3HpeHTbl, oc06eHHo Y4HTblBall TO, 4TO ueHa aKUHH YCTaHaBnHBanaCb HeHaMHOrO BblWe 6anaHCOBOH CTOHMOCTH. KOp04e rOBOpll, npoue,nypa CKOpee BCerO OTCeKJIa nHWb OCHOBHble y6bIT04HbJe npe,nnpHlITHlI H Te, KOTOpble HMenH KpynHbJe H npHOpHTeTHbJe 3anpOCbI Ha 61O,n)l(eTHble Cpe,nCTBa - HanpHMep, npe,nnpHlITHlI BnK H HaY4Hble OpraHH3aUHH. CTPYKTypa pa604HX MeCT npHBaTH3HpOBaHHbiX H npHBaTH3H- PYIOI.J.\HXClI npe,nnpHlITHH rOBOpHT 0 TOM, 4TO 3TOT npOuecc COnpOBO)l(- ,nanclI HeKOTOpOH paUHOHanH3aUHeH 3aHlITOCTH. Ha6nlO,nanOCb lIBHOe - nopll,nKa 5-10% - COKpal.J.\eHHe TeXHH4eCKoro nepcoHana (HTP) H cnY)l(al.J.\HX no cpaBHeHHIO C aHanorn4HblMH rocy,napCTBeHHblMH npe,nnpH.fITHlIMH. Ho npe,nBapHTenbHble ,naHHble 0 COKpal.J.\eHHH WTaTOB B 1993 r. He ,nalOT OCHOBaHHH ,nnll BblBo,na 0 60nee BblCOKOH ,none BblHY)l()leHHblX YBonbHeHHH B npHBaTH3HpOBaHHOM ceKTope (pe3YnbTa- Tbl, nonY4eHHble Ha OCHOBe Bbl60p04Horo 06cne,nOBaHHlI, onHcaHbl B Commander, and Yemtsov, 1994). HaMeHeHlJe paaMepa OnJIaTbl TPY.lla If OTHOClfTeJIbHaSl aapaOOT- HaSl nJIaTa: rOCY.llapCTBeHHbIit ceKTOp ConOCTaBneHHe paaMepa aapa60THoH nnaTbl BO BpeMeHH oc06eHHo aaTpy,nHHTenbHO, Y4HTbiBall He,nOCTaTOK ,naHHbIX. ,n:a)l(e npH 3TOM, CTaTHCTH4eCKHe nOKaaaTeJJH peanbHoH aapa6OTHoH nnaTbl rOBOpllT 0 ee COKpaY.leHHH Ha 55% B peaynbTaTe nepBoHa4aJJbHoro CKa4Ka ueH, aa 4eM nocne,nOBano ee YBenH4eHHe B Te4eHHe cne,nYIOY.lero ro,na (PHCYHOK 4-8). 3a,non:lKeHHOCTb no 3apa60THoH nnaTe B nepBOH nonOBHHe 1992 r., 06ycnoBneHHall He,nOCTaTKOM nHKBH,nHblX cpe,nCTB, eY.le 60nee cOKpaTHna peaJJbHo nonY4eHHYIO 3apa60THYIO nnaTy.16 Bce 3TO BpeMlI B npHHUHne coxpaHlInclI KOHTPOJIb 3a 3apa60THoH nnaToH, H pacxo,nbl Ha onnaTY Tpy,na He ,non)l(Hbl 6blnH npeBblwaTb 4eTblpeXKpaTHoro paaMepa MHHHManbHOH onnaTbI Tpy,na. Ho Y4HTb1Ball HH3KHH ypOBeHb nocne,nHeH H TO, 4TO OH nepeCMaTpHBaJJClI pe,nKO, iPaKTH4eCKH 3apa6OTHall nnaTa YCTOH4HBO H C)'lYeCTBeHHO npeBbiwana HopMaTHBHblH pa3Mep (CM. PHCYHOK 4-9), 4TO npHBeno K pOCTy Hanora Ha cBepxHopMaTHBHYIO onnaTY Tpy,na B 1992 r. no KpaHHeH Mepe ,no 16B cepe,nHHe 1992 r. 3a,non)l(eHHOCTb no 3apa6OTHoH nnaTe COCTaBnllna n04TH TpeTb onnaTbi Tpy,na B npOMblwneHHOCTH. 208 Be3paoomulla, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbO-IOK mpyiJa 2% BBn. OrpaHHtleHHe paCXOJlOB Ha onJlaTy TPYJla SBHO He CBS3bIB3Jl0 npeJlllpH1rnts. ,[la:llCe B 3TMX YCJlOBHSX K MaIO 1993 r. pe3JlbHaS 3apa6OTHas MaTa KaK B rocYJlapCTBeHHoM ceKTope, TaK H B npoMblUJ- JleHHOCTIf 6b1Jla JlHlIJb Ha 5-10% BbiUJe, tleM B Hatl3Jle 1992 r. H npHMepHo Ha 20% HH:lICe ypOBHS nepBoii nOJlOBHHbI 1991 r.3apa60THas nJlaTa H !,leHbI Bce 60JlbUJe MeHSJlHCb napaJIJleJlbHO, HO .RBHOH HHJleKCa- UHH BBeJ:(eHO He 6b1JlO, .na:llCe HeCMOTP.R Ha TO, "ITO npH onpe.neneHHH ypOBHS OMaTbi TPy.na B KPynHblX roPO.nCKHX nOCeJleHH.RX Bce tlalUe OpHeHTHpYJOTCS Ha H3MeHeHH.R P03HHtlHbiX !,leH, a B tlaCTH tlaCTHoro ceKTopa 3apa6oTHas OJIaTa YCTaHaBJlHBaeTCS B .nOJlJlapax. PUCYHOIC 4-8. POCCHS, pe3JlbHaS 3apa6OTHas nJlaTa Ha rocYJlapCTBeH- HbIX npe.nnpHHTHSX H B npoMbIWJleHHOCTH, sHBapb 1991 r. - CeHT.R6pb 1993 r. (B !,leHax .neKa6ps 1990 r.) .- - -~------------------------------------ . - ... I- f: 1= I: - ... .. , I' 1'1'1 'I ' -- -'" + ~....-.-- -'" Mbi CKJlOHHhI O:lKH):(aTb Cepbe3HbiX H3MeHeHHH B pacnpeJleJleHHH 3apa6oTH0H MaTbl, )"IHTbIBaS Bce 60JlbUJYJO .ne!,leHTP3JlH3al,lH1O i:tpHHHTHS peweHHH no noBO.Qy 3apa6OTHoH OJIaTbi H HCXO):(HYJO, SBHO 17 Hepa!,lHOHaJIbHYJO CTpYKTYPY OTHOCHTenbHbIX ee CTaBOK. CnpaBe.n- J1HB0 T3K:lICe, "ITO coxpaHSlOlIlHecs 60llbWHe pa3JlHtlHS B ypOBHe OOJIaTbl TPYJla no pemOHaM MOryT 6bITb OTtiaCTH 06"bSCHeHbI pa3J1HtI- l~ tlaCTHOCTH,HH3KYJO OOJIaT}' KB3JlHIjlHKal,lHH H COOTBeTCTBYJOlUHH nepeKOC B nOJlh3Y 3apa6OTHOH nJlaTbI pa6OniHKOB HeKBaJIHIjlH!,lHpOBaH- HOro TPy.na. POCCUR 209 HblMH (mpHTH3aHH.RMHlt Ha HOMHHanbHblH ypOBeHb 3apa60THOH nnaTbl, a He npoCTO 06'b.RCH.RTbC.R pernOHanbHblMH H3MeHeHH.RMH ueH. Mbl TaK:lKe C4HTaeM, 4TO OTHOCHTeJ1bHbIH pa3Mep onnaTbl Tpy,na B pernOHax B OCHOBHOM OCTanCH HeH3MeHHblM. Mbl 06HapY.:lKHnH COOTBeTCTBYJOII1He BblCOKHe 3Ha4eHH.R KOO¢¢HUHeHTa paHrOBOH KOppen.RUHH ueH CnHpMaHa (+0,78 ,nn.R ,naHHblX 3a MaH 1993 r. - MaH 1991 r.). npH4eM TeCHOTa CB.R3H B03paCTaJ1a co BpeMeHeM. Y4HTbIBa.R 3TH Ha6nKt,neHH.R CTaHOBHTC.R 04eBHAHO, 4TO 60nbWa.R 4aCTb H3MeHe- HHH B BapHaUHHX pa3Mepa 3apa60THOH nnaTbl eCTb nonpoCTY YCHne- HHe Y:lKe CYII1eCTBOBaBweH pernOHaJ1bHOH CTpYKTypbl 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbi. Ha ypOBHe OTpaCneH. HeCMOTp.R Ha pe3KHe H3MeHeHH.R OT MeC.Rua K MeC.RUY. Mbl He 0.6HapY:lKH.I'IH KpynHblX OTKnOHeHHH OT OTpacneBOH CTpYKTypbl OTHOCHTeJ1bHOA3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl,CYII1eCTBO- BaBweH ,no 1992 r., 3a HCKnKt4eHHeM ¢HHaHcoBoro ceKTopa H HaYKH. ITepBoe HBn.ReTC.R pe3ynbTaToM pa3BHTH.R HOBOro 4aCTHoro ceKTopa, COKpall1eHHe B OnnaTbI HaYKe Bbl3BaHO TeM. 4TO HaYKa TeCHO CB.R3aHa PHCYHOK 4-9. POCCH.R: HopMaTHBHble H ¢aKTH4eCKHe pacxo,nbl Ha onnaTY Tpy,na, .RHBapb 1992 r. - ¢eBpanb 1993 r• .... - ., .. Il1O ,. /,,-.--- -_. ./ ~------- ..--"-- 1.1. 1.1. . . , . "'_ ,,. ". 7,1. ",. ',1. 111.1. 11.'. 11.1. 1,1110 1.1. -. HopMmII C 060POHOH H 06na,naeT OTHOCHTenbHO cna6blMH B03MO.:lKHOCTHMH ,nn.R ,naBneHH.R Ha npaBHTenbCTBo no CpaBHeHHKt C ,npyrnMH 4aCT.RMH 6Kt,n:lKeTHOro ceKTopa, HanpHMep, o6pa30BaHHeM. 3TO YKa3blBaeT Ha CHnY opraHH3al.lHoHHblX CTPYKTYP B YCTaHoBneHHH 3apa6OTHoH nnaTbl, 210 Be3pa6omW4a, nepeCmpOilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa KOTopble onpe,lleJUlnH nepepaCnpe,llenHTenbHble 3cpcpeKTbI, nepe,llaBaB- WHeCH "lIepe3 BbICOKyx> HHcpnHUHIO H ,lleueHTpartH3aUHlO YCTaHoBneHHH 18 pa3Mepa OnnaTbl TpY,lla. Ha CBO,llHOM ypOBHe Mbl 06HapY)I(HJ1H, "liTO OTHOWeHHe BepXHeH ,lleUHnH ,llOXO,llOB Ha JlYWY HaCeneHHH K HH)I(HeH BblpOCnO C 3,5 B 1990 r. ,ll0 5,5 B Mae 1993 r.; npHMeHeHHe MeTO,lla KonMoropoBa-CMHpHoBa K03CPCPHYHeHToB ,llnH paC"lIeTa )l)l(HHH 19 nOKa3ano nnaBHblH paCT CTeneHH HepaBeHCTBa. 06 OTHOCHTenbHOH CTa6HnbHOCTH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl no KBanHcpHKaUHH TaK)l(e CBH,lleTenbCTByx>T pe3YnbTaTbl 06Cne,llOBaHHH BceMHpHoro EaHKa. Me)l(,!ly III KB. 1991 r. H IV KB. 1992 r. Mbl 06HapY)I(HnH C6nH)I(eHHe H3MeHeHHH B HOMHHanbHoH 3apa60THoH nllaTe no OCHOBHblM KBartHcpHKaUHoHHblM KaTeropHHM (Ta6nHua 4-8). B 80% cny"l!aeB 3apa60THaH nnaTa YCTaHaBnHBanacb a,llMHHHCTpaTHB- HO, a He nYTeM neperOBopOB. Mbl MO)l(eM TaK)I(e ynYCKaTb Ba)l(Hble KOMnOHeHTbl TpY,llOBOrO ,llOXO,lla, B03HHKalOIJ!He B pe3ynbTaTe Hepa3- rllaweHHH, oc06eHHO B cnY"lIae ynpaBnHlOlJ!HX, ,llnH KOTOPblX C,llenKH Ha CTopOHe CTaHOBHTCH Bce 60nee Ba)l(HOH "lIaCTblO ,llOXO,llOB, HO HeCMOTpH Ha HeKOTopoe YBenH"lIeHHe pa3pblBa B onnaTe TpY,lla 6nH)I(e K Bepxyw- Ke WKanbI, 061J!3.R K3pTHHa 60nbwe rOBopHT B nonb3Y COKpaYJ.eHHfI pa3pbIBa B onnaTe TPY,lla. 06ll!HH BbIBO,ll, KOTOPblH MO)l(HO C,llenaTb, COCTOHT B TOM, "liTO ecnH B 1991 r. pa3nH"lIHH B ann aTe TpY,lla no OTpacnHM H YPOBHIO KBanHcpHKaUHH pe3KO ysenH"lIHBanHCb, B 1992 r., cKopee Bcero, OHH COKpaTHnHcb. B KaKoH Mepe Ha H3MeHeHHe 3apa60THoH nnaTbl nOBnHHno COCTOHHHe oTpacneH H OTHOCHTenbHble ueHbl? B 1992 r. B oTpacnHx npoMblwneHHoCTH C ypoBHeM na,lleHHH npOH3BO,llCTBa HH)I(e Cpe,llHerO 06bl"llHO Ha6nlO,llanCH paCT 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl Bblwe Cpe,llHero. Ha PHc)'HKe 4-10 nOKa3aHa CBH3b H3MeHeHHH 06'beMOB npoH3BO,llCTBa ;.; H3MeHeHHHMH peanbHoH nOTpe6HTenbcKoH 3apa60THoH nllaTbl ,llnH l~aMeTHM, "liTO TapHcpHaH CHCTeMa ,ll0 CHX nop OXBaTbIBaeT npHMepHo 25% pa60"lleH CHnbl; peniOHanbHble K03CPCPHYHeHTbI3apa6oT- HOH nnaTbl ,llO CHX nop npHMeHHIOTcH, npocpcolO3bl yeHTpartH30BaHbi H ,lla)l(e npHBaTH3HpoBaHHble CPHPMbl CPOPMHPYIOT oTpacneBble acco- YHaYHH ,!lJ1H 6011ee nOllHoH KOOp,llHHaUHH ycnoBHH onllaTbl TpY,lla. 1'1<03CPCPHYHeHT ,[()I(HHH 6blll paBeH 0,25 B 1991 r., 0,29 B HHBape 1992 r. H 0,29 B MapTe 1993 r. 3aMeTHM, "liTO 3aHH)I(eHHe ,llOXO,llOB B OT"lIeTHOCTH Be,lleT K He,llOoyeHKe HepaBeHCTBa, nOCKOllbKY B ,llOXO,ll nOna,llaeT Bce 6011bwe KOMnOHeHTOB, He CBH3aHHbiX C 3apa6oTHOH nnaTOH; ,llaHHble 3Ha"lleHHH 6blllH nOllY"lIeHbl Ha OCHOBe ony6nHKoBaH- HblX ,llaHHbIX POCKOMCTaTa ,ll0 nORBneHHR ocpHUHanbHOH CTaTHCTHKH HH,lleKCa ,[()I(HHH - npHM. pe,ll. POCCUR 211 Ta6J1H ua 4-8. PeaJlbHaH CTaTHCTH4eCKaH 3apa6oTHaH nnaTa no ypOBHIO KBanHlpHKaUHH: III KB. 1992 r. H IV KB. 1992 r. (III 1(8. 1991 Z.a100) KI K2 K3 K4 K.5 Karel'Ol'lU ruu. IV KI. mKB. IV n. !Un. IVu. llIu. IV u. III u. lVu. 3aMecTHTenb AHpeKTOpa 63 90 57 69 71 59 73 49 100 63 HTP/npocileccHoHan 53 53 39 61 64 66 63 50 76 ITPOH3BoACTBeHHblH pa60'lHH 56 47 54 68 68 54 73 75 85 HeKBanHcilHllHpOBaHHblH pa60'lHH 69 75 55 38 56 56 77 106 89 nj>S"",qaBH.: KaTeroplI1I p..""'pa 4>01''' (K): 1-.80-350; 2-351·'lOO; 3=/01·900; 4=901·j SOIl; 5- > I SOIl quo ..". HCTOqnn: 06cJte.l\OBaBH. BuMllpnOl'O Ilam:a. OCHOBHblX OTpaCJleH npOMbIWneHHOCTH. RCHO BH.QHO, 'ITO 60nee CHJlbHOe COKpalJJ.eHHe npOH3BO.QCTBa H 3aHHTOCTH 6blnO CBH3aHO co CHH>KeHHeM 3anpOCOB Ha OnnaTY TpY.Qa. 3TO MO>KHO paCCMaTpHBaTb KaK CHman nOHBJleHHH CJla60H, elJJ.e TOJlbKO 3apO>K.QalOlJJ.eHCH, B3aHMOCBH3H Me)f(.Qy nOBe.QeHHeM 3apaDOTHOH nnaTbl H ypOBHeM 3aHHTOCTH. MO>KHO TaK>Ke BH.QeTb, 'ITO OTHOCHTeJlbHaH 3apaDOTHaH nnaTa ODbl4HO HMeeT nOnO>KHTenbHyro KOppenHYHIO C H3MeHeHHeM OTHOCHTenbHblX OTpaCneBblX UeH npOH3BOIlHTeneH. OTpaCnH C nOJlO>KHTenbHbIM H3MeHeHHeM OTHOCHTenbHblX ueH .QOBOnbHO CHCTeMa- TH4eCKH nepeBO.QHJlH HX B nOnO>KHTeJlbHble H3MeHeHHH OTHOCHTenbHOH 3apaDOTHOH nnaTbl. )J.anee, nOCTpOHB perpeCCHIO H3MeHeHHH paCXO.QOB Ha OnnaTY TpY.Qa no H3MeHeHHHM npHDblJIH B 1992 r. Ha OCHOBe pernoHanbHblx .QaHHbIX, Mbl nOJly-4HnH PHCYHOK 4-11, H3 1C0Toporo BH.QHO, 'ITO npH6bInH H 3apaDOTHaH nnaTa 06naIlalOT CHnbHOH nOnO>KHTenbHOH CBH3blO. HaKoHey, OCODeHHO B I1I B. 1992 r. H B KOHye 1993 r.- Ha4ane 1994 r., npe.QnpHHTHH oCYlJJ.eCTBnHnH 3aHMCTBOBaHHH Y paD04Hx nyreM KpynHblX 3a.Qon>KeHHOCTeH no 3apaDoTHoH nJlaTe. 3TO HBneHHe ODbI4HO MO>KHO OD'bHCHHTb >KeCTKHMH orpaHH4eHHHMH Ha nHKBH.QHble cpe.QCTBa npe.QnpHHTHH, B03HHKalOIJJ.HMH B pe3ynbTaTe COBMeCTHoro B03IleHCTBHH .QeHe>KHO-Kpe.QHTHoH nOnHTHKH - B 4aCTHOCTH pe3Koro cOKpalJJ.eHHH Kpe.QHTa 3KOHOMHKe B Ha4aJle 1994 r. - H ocoDeHHoCTeH q,HHaHcoBoH CHCTeMbl: pa3.QeneHHH HanH4HbIX H De3Hanl14HbiX PyDneH. KOTopoe coxpaHHno CBoe 3Ha4eHHe B 1992 r. Y4HTbiBaH TO, 'ITO Mbl 3HaeM OD 06'beMe BbInYCKa. 3TO 3aHMCTBOBaHHe De3 COMHemU'I Dbino BbIHY>K.QeHHbIM H OCYlJJ.eCTBnHJ10Cb AJIH Toro, 4TODbI HaKonHTb 212 Be3pa6omulja, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U pblHOK mpyi:Ja nHKBHAHOCTb An.R BblnnaTbl 3apa60THoH nnaTbI. PHCyHOK 4-10. J.i3MeHeHH.R 06'beMa npoH3Bo.QCTBa no OTHoweHHIO K H3MeHeHH.RM nOTpe6wrenbcKoH 3apa60THOH nnaTbl, IKB.93r./IKB.91r. .......... O~r---------------------------------------------~--. G.4 o I o.a 0 ....... _ . r. o J :ol-----------------_____ I -:;;~'_+___j t .0.1 l-u I:: o 1: - .().7 J ~~~-L------~~------~-----~------~-----L~ 1IbMII18I .... ~ .0.1 o OJpaCftM npoMWWnetIHOCIH + TpeHA npe.Qnoqwra.R CTa6HnH3HpOBaTb 3aH.RTOCTb, npe.QnpH.RTH.R HaKannHBaJlH B3aHMHbie HennaTe)llCH H HCnOnb30BanH HX, BMeCTe C 3a.QomKeHHOCTbIO no 3apa60THOH nnaTe, B KaqeCTBe apryMeHTa B neperOBopax C rOCY.QapCTBOM. B KOH!,,1e KOH!,,10B 3'1"0 npHBeno K CM.Rr'lIeHHIO AeHe)l(HO-Kpe.QwrHoH nOnHTHKH H pe3KOMY POCTY nHKBHA- HOCTH npe.QnpH.RTHH 3a CqeT BHeWHHX HCTOqHHKOB. AJIbTepHaTHBHble B03MO:>KHOCTH A.1UI pa60THHKOB roCYAapCTBeHHblX npe.QnpH.RTHH TaKHe B03MO)KHOCTH CBO.Q.RTC.R K nonyqeHHIO 3apa6OTHOH nnaTbI B qaCTHbiX qlHpMax HnH nOC06H.R no 6e3pa60TH!,,1e. qTO KaCaeTC.R nocne.QHero, HeCMOTp.R Ha TO, 'liTO KpHTepHH Ha npaBO nonyqeHH.R nOC06H.R OqeHb ij.!e.Qpbl, ypOBHH Ha3HaqaeMOrO noc06ml HH3KH H, KpOMe Toro, 06blqHO COKpaij.!aIOTC.R .Qn.R 60nbWHHCTBa nonyqaTeneH .QO ypOBH.R, paBHoro MHHHManbHOH POCCWl 213 3apa60THOH nnaTe.:lO COOTSeTCTSeHHO K03q,q,HUHeHT 3aMeweHHH 6btn OqeHb HH30K, Oc06eHHo eCnH 6e3pa6OTHua 03Haqana nOTepJO ,Qocryna K HeKOTOpblM He,QeHe:lKHblM nOC06HHM. KaK Y:lKe YKa3bIBanOCb, 3T0 CHH:lKaeT CTHMyn pernCTpHpOBaTbCH B KaqeCTBe 6e3pa6OTHblX H. S03MO)I(H0, ,QeHCTBYeT KaK SCTpOeHHblH «TOPM03)) .QnH npe.QnpHHTHH, Bblcs060:lK.QaJOIllHx pa60THHKOB. PHcynOK 4-11. Pacxo.Qb1 Ha onnaTY TPY,Qa H H3MeHeHHe npH6btnH, POCCHH, 1992/1991 IT. (pa3HoCTb norapHq,MoB). I.e ~ SA a ~ a 0 u €h oClJ 0 \0 a a 2.1 0c:o a a a I u a IlIJ ooeP ° 0 ° - 0 0 2A a o ° o~o ° I o ~oo 0 - -- 0 0 u 0 a IIllcP 0 0 0 a .i JZ 0 0 0 0 1.8 1.' .".,. a ° c.._ a 1.4 ,. 1.2 ... 1.8 I 0 -a U _~_.I1I1AlW "4 2.1 t.I o -....~ .. KapTHHY C 3apa60THOH nnaTOH Ha qaCTHblX npe,QnpHHTHHX OTcne,QHTb CnO:lKHee. ,LlnH BHOSb C03,QaHHbIX npe,QnpmITHH - S nO,QaMH- JOllleM 60nbllIHHCTse npe,QnpHHTHH cq,epbl ycnyr - 3a pa60qYJO rnnOTe3Y ,Qon>KeH 6blTb npHHHT ,QOBonbHO HeYCTOHqHSblH xapaKTep ,QOXO,QOB, pa3Mep KOTOPblX onpe,QenHeTCH MOTHsaMH npHMeqeHHB 2Opa3Mep noc06HH paCCqHTblBaeTCH HCXO,QH H3 ypOBHH 3apa60TKa, H H3MeHHeTCH S npe,Qenax OT 60%,Q0 75% cpe,QHeH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl 3a npe,Qbl.ll)'l.UHH ro,Q B nepBble llIeCTb MecByes 6e3pa60THYbl. Ero pa3Mep cOKpalllaeTcH ,QO 45% B cne.QYJOIllHe llIeCTb MeCHueB, a no npollIeCTBHH rO,Qa BblnnaTbl noc06HB npeKpawaJOTCH. Ho Ha caMOM ,Qene 60nbllIHHCTsO 6e3pa60THblX nonyqaeT nHllIb MHHHManbHYJO 3apa60THYJO nnaTY, KOTopaH 3a see speMH e I KB. 1992 r. ,QO I KB. 1993 r. He npesblllIana 10-15% cpe,QHeH 3apa6OTHoH nnaTbl S npoMblllI- neHHOCTH. CM. World Bank, 1993. 214 Be3pa6omuija, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa pa60THHKOB H3 rOCCeKTOpa, H SnH30nH4eCKHMH CBepX.rlOXOnaMH, C 60nblllHM ytulOHOM Ha nonyqeHHe MaKCHManbHOH OTna4H B 6nH)KaHlllee 21 BpeMH. BTOPH4HblH HnH napannenbHblH XapaKTep 3aHHTOCTH Ha 60nbllleH 4aCTH TaKHX pa604HX MeCT elJ.!e 60nee OCnO:lKHHeT COnOCTaB- neHHe. Ho, KaK CBHneTenbCTB}'IOT naHHble 06CJ1enOBaHHH, y 20% cOBMeCTHTeneH Ha 4aCTHblX npennpHHTHHX 3apa6OTHaH nnaTa 6blna Bblllle, 4eM Ha OCHOBHOM MeCTe pa60Tbl. Ta6JIHua 4-9. OTHocHTenbHaH 3apa60THaH nnaTa: OTHOllleHHe pa3MepoB OnnaTbI Tpyna B 4aCTHOM ceKTope H B rocynapCTBeHHoM ceKTope, 1992 r. H 1993 r. IV KB. 1992 r. I KB. 1993 r. l:faCTHble!rocYlJ,apCTBeHHble 1,6 1,8 nOnY'laCTHble!rocYAapCTB~HHble 1.3 l:faCTHwe!rocYAapCTBeHHWe (no YPOBHIO KBanHipHKa~HH) 3aMeCTHTenb AHpeKTOpa 1.9 1.8 TexHH'IeCKHH nepCOHaJI (HTP) 1.5 1,6 npoHaBoACTBeHHblH pa60'lHH 1.5 0.9 1,6 1,2 HCTOlDIlI1t: IV X.8. 1992 r. K [1:.1. 1993 r. ~ 06cnC,JlOaaRHC ikeMBpaoro Baluca,. 1IaeT'fIWclrocY.D.apcr.cHUbiM H nOJl)"l.cT'IWelrocy.....pcr.OIIlIJ.I.. • 06<:JtO)!,OIlallHe BUHOM. B Ta6nHue 4-9 npHBeneHa BCH HMelOf,UaHCH HH$opMaYHH 06 OTHOCHTeJJbHOH 3apa6OTHOH nnaTe, H H3 Hee BHnHO, 'ITO "IaCTHble H nonyroCynapCTBeHHble npennpHHTHH nnaTHnH 3Ha4HTenbHO 60nbllle. KOppeKTHpOBKa Ha pa60"lee BpeMH COKpalJ.!aeT STOT pa3pblB no ~eHbllleH Mepe Ha 10%22 B 4aCTHOM ceKTope no cpaBHeHHIO C rocy- napCTBe~HbiM pe3ynbTaTaMH pa60Tbi OTnenbHoro pa60THHKa HnH He60nbllloH HX rpynnbl 06ycnoBneHa YCTOH4HBO 60nee BblCOKaH nonH 210c06eHHOCTb, OTMe4eHHaH 06cnenOBaHHeM BU,HOM. na MapTe 1993 r. cpenHHH npOnOn:lKHTenbHoCTb pa604eH HenenH Ha. rocynapCTBeHHblx npennpHHTHHX COCTaBnHna npHMepHo 40 4acoB, a B 4aCTHOM ceKTope - OKono 45 4aCOB. POCCUR 215 onnaTbl Tpy,!la. 3TO npe,!lnOnaraeT, tlTO nepe,!latla THTyna C06CTBeH- HOCTH 06bltlHO CBR3aHa C nOBblWeHHeM 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl, OTtlaCTH 3a 23 CtleT HCKJllOtleHHH H3 HOpMaTHBa 3apa6OTHOH nnaTbl. HCHO TaK)Ke, tlTO HepaBeHCTBO B paCnpe,!leneHHH 3apa60THOH nnaTbl, H3MepeHHOe C nOMOy!blO HHlleKCOB Ll)KHHH, TeM 60nbwe, tleM Bblwe CTeneHb tlaCTHOrO KOHTpOnR (Ta6nHI.(a 4-10). Llanee, pacnpe,!leneHHe 3apa6OTHoH nnaTbl Ta6nHua 4-10. Cpe,!lHRR 3apa6oTHaR nnaTa H HepaBeHCTBO B onnaTe TpY,!la, I KB. 1993 r. KamezopUR CpeoHRR 3ap. HHOeKC nllama (py6.neu) J]/KUHU ifJopMa co6cm6eHHocmu rOCYAapcTBeHHhle 19564 0,39 flonyrocYAapcTBeHHhle 24657 0,43 qaCTHhle 35402 0,51 Ompac.nb flpoMhlwneHHoCTb H CTpoHTenbCTBo 22199 0,38 CenbCKoe X03AHCTBO 16254 0,39 TOproBnH 29214 0.48 06pa30BaHHe H 3ApaBooxpaHeHHe 14886 0,37 rOCYAapcTBeHHoe ynpaaneHHe 25653 0,41 Pa3Mep npeonpURmUR ('IUC.nO 3aHRmbLX) <200 20184 0,43 201-999 23447 0,41 )1000 21825 0,38 6e3 COMHeHHH 60nee HepaBHOMepHO B Tex ¢lHpMax. 4bH OTpacneBble xapaKTepHCTHKH H pa3Mepbl - B OCHOBHOM He60nbwHe ToprOBbIe Do6cne,!lOBaHHe BiJM.OM rOBopHT 0 TOM, tlTO nepella4a npaBa co6CTBeHHOCTH n04TH HeH3MeHHO COnpOBO)K,!lanaCb POCTOM 3apaOOT- HOH nnaTbI, HO Taf()Ke - 60nbweH HeYCTOH4HBOCTblO 3aHRTOCTH. 216 5e3paOOmUlJa. nepecmpoUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbtHOK mpyiJa $HpMbl - 60nee 6nH3KH qaCTHOMY H nonyrocy,napCTBeHHOMY CeKTOpy. B 3TH ,naHHble He BKnlOqeHbl He,neHe)I(Hble BblnnaTbl, BenHqHHa KOTOPblX Ha rocy,napCTBeHHblX npe,nnpH1ITH.RX 06blqHO COCTaBn.ReT 35-40% $atentqeCKHX Tpy,nOBbiX ,nOXO,nOB, OTcYTCTBHe KOTOPblX Ha qaCTHblX npe.nnpH1ITHHX Crna)l(JfBaeT pa3nHqHH B onnaTe Tpy,na (Commander& others, 1993b). O,nHaKo ,naHHble rOBOp.RT 0 TOM, "ITO MHorne 4aCTHbie npe,nnpH.RTH.R npe,nnaralOT no KpaHHeH Mepe paBHblH cneKTp ,nononHH- TeJlbHblX BbmnaT, HO C 60nbweH JlH$$epeHUHaUHeH Cpe,nH CBOHX pa60THHKOB. ,Z::(OCTyn K TaKHM ycnyraM, KaK Me,nHUHHCKa.R nOMOl,Ub H )l(Jfnbe, 06b14HO paBeH ,nn.R Bcex, HO nOC06H.R C 60nee .RBHO Bblpa)KeH- HblM 3neMeHTOM ,noxo,na - nbroTHoe nHTaHHe, TOBapbl no CHH)KeHHbIM ueHaM, MaTepHanbHa.R nOMol,Ub H T.,n. - ,noCTaIOTC.R qaCTO pa60THHKaM C 60nee BbICOKHM ,nOXO,nOM. 3TO yeenH'-IHBaeT HepaBeHCTBO pacnpe,ne- neHH.R 3apa60THOH nnaTbI rocy,napCTBeHHblX npe.nnpH.RTHH. Kopoqe, nepe,naqa THTyna c06CTBeHHoCTH CHCTeMaTHqeCKH cOnpOBo)KJlanaCb c,nBwaMH B onnaTe Tpy,na, H .RBHbIM npHMeHeHHeM MexaHH3MOB onnaTbl 3a ,nOCTHrnYTbIH pe3ynbTaT. KaK Y)Ke OTMe4a- nocb, eCTb YKa3aHH.R Ha TO, "ITO CTpYKTypa 3aH.RTOCTH TaK)Ke H3MeHH- naCb, HO ,naHHble - He rOBOp.R Y)Ke 0 ,naHHbIX no 6e3pa60THue - He n03BOn.RIOT 3aKnlOqHTb, "ITO CTPYKTypHble H3MeHeHH.R 6bInH TaKHMH Y)K cepbe3HbIMH. Be3pa6OTHua BonpeKH nepBOHaqanbHbIM O)KH,naHH.RM 6e3pa60THua OCTaBanaCb He TonbKO HH3KOH, HO H COKpal,UanaCb. Docne pe3Koro YCKopeHH.R B nepBOH nonOBHHe 1992 r. TeMn ee pOCTa CHH3HnC.R, a BO II-IV KB. 1993 r. CTan na,naTb ee ypoBeHb. B nOCneJlHHH nepHo,n 061,Ua.R Mepa 3apernCTpHpOBaHHoH 6e3pa60THUbi - 06i,Ua.R qHcneHHOCTb HIJ.lYI,UHX pa60TY - He npeBbIwana 1,5% pa60qeH CHJlbl H nHWb 0,7% OT pa604eH CHJlbI nonY4anH nOC06H.R. 3TH ,naHHble CHnbHO 3aHH)KaIOT ypOBeHb 6e3pa6OTHUbl, Y4HTbIBa.R He,nOCTaT04HbIe CTHMynbl,nn.R 6e3pa60THbIX pernCTpHpOBaTbCH. 24 ,Z::(aHHbIe 06cne.QOBaHH.R CBH,neTenbCTByJOT 0 TOM, "ITO ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THUbi K cepe.QHHe 1993 r. COCTaBn.RJl OT 5% ,no 24[]OMHMO TOro, 4TO pa3Mep nOC06H.R ynan HH)Ke npO)l(JfT04HOro MHHHMYMa, qHCnO TpY,l:lOYCTpOHCTB 4epe3 61Opo no TPY,l:l0YCTPOHCTBY Mano. ,Z::(aHHbIe 06cne,l:loBaHHH nOKa3b1BaIOT, 41'0 B nepBblH MeC.RU 6e3pa6omUbI pernCTpHpyeTC.R 60% 6e3pa6OTHbIx, a K TpeTbeMY MeC.RUY 3Ta ,non.R na,l:laeT ,l:l0 20% POCCUR 217 6%.25 He60JlbllIHe pa3JlH...HR B pernOHaJlbHOM ypoBHe 6e3pa6oTHUbi coxpaHRIOTcR KaK npH HCnOJlb30BaHHH 0tPHuwaJlbHblX ,l:IaHHbIX, TaK H HHtP0pMaUHH 06CJle,l:lOBaHHH. nO>KaJlYH, 60Jlee Ba)KHO TO, ...TO ypOBHH 6e3pa60THUbi no pernOHaM OTJlH... aIOTCR He CHJlbHO. ECJlH Mepy 06ryeH ...HCJleHHOCTH H!yy!yHX pa60TY ,l:IOnOJlHHTb HHtPopMaUHeH 0 pa60THH- Kax, pa60TalOryHx JlHllIb tPopMaJlbHO, pa3JlH"'HR erye 60JlbllIe CrJla,l:lHTCR. C Y"'eTOM 3TOH HHtPopMaUHH, YTO ...HeHHbIH ypOBeHb B03paCTaeT ,l:I0 6% ...HCJleHHOCTH pa60... eH CHJlbl BO II KB. 1993 r. K03tPtPHUHeHT BapHaUHH 3TOH Mepbl no 06JlaCTRM MeHbllIe, ... eM ,l:IJlR ...HCJleHHOCTH H!yy!yHX pa60TY, H3 ... em MO>KHO C,l:IeJlaTb BbIBO,l:l, ...TO pa3JlH ...HR B ypoBHe 6e3pa60THYbi no 06JlaCTRM MOrYT B 60JlbllIeH Mepe 06'bRCHRTbCR pa3JlH"'HbIM OTHOllIeHHeM a,l:lMHHHCTpaUHH K RBHOH 6e3pa60THue, ... eM pa3JlH ... HbIMH 6a30BblMH npoyeccaMH. Ha PHCYHKe 4-12 npHBe,l:leHbl KpHBbie HeCKOJlbKHX H3MepHTe- JleH 6e3pa60THYbl H ,l:IBH>KeHHH BO BpeMeHH npe,l:lJlO>KeHHR Ha pblHKe TpY,l:Ia - BaKaHcHH. BpocalOTcR B rJla3a HeCKOJlbKO oc06eHHoCTeH. Bo- nepBblx, Ha6JlIO,l:IaeTCR ... eTKoe 06paTHoe ,l:IBH>KeHHe BaKaHcHH H 6e3pa60TH!JbI, "ITO ,l:IaeT OCHOBaHHR npe,l:lnOJlaraTb HaJlH4He MaKp03KO- HOMH4eCKHX tPaKTOPOB. 3aMe,l:lJleHHe TeMna pOCTa 6e3pa60THYbi MO)KHO npOCJle,l:lHTb BnJlOTb ,l:I0 III KB. 1992 r., H npe)K,l:le Bcero OHO CBH3aHO C oCJla6JleHHeM >KeCTKOCTH Kpe,l:lHTHoH nOJlHTHKH ,l:IJlH npOH3BO,l:lCTBeHHo- ro ceKTopa. BOJlee TpY,l:IHO 06'bRCHHTb nocJle,l:lyJOryee CHH>KeHHe ypOBHR 6e3pa6oTHUbi H POCT ... HCJla BaKaHCHA B cepenHHe 1993 r., eCJlH Y"'eCTb HBHoe cOKparyeHHe rocY,l:IapCTBeHHblx ,l:IOTaUHH H TpaHctPepTOB npe,l:lnpHRTHRM no cpaBHeHHIO C 1992 r. vb PHCYHKOB 4-13 H 4-14, nOKa3blBalOryHx npHToK B COCTaB 6e3pa60THbiX H Bbl6blTHe H3 HX "'HCJla, BH,l:IHO RBHoe nOBblllIeHHe TeMnOB Bbl6blTHR nOCJle III KB. 1993 r. TeMn Bbl6blTHH H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THbiX OKOJlO 20% B MeCRU 6blJl BblCOKHM H pe3Ko KOHTpacTHpo- BaJl C onblTOM BOCTO...HOH EBponbl.2(j YpoBeHb TPY,l:I0YCTpoHCTBa, npeBblllIaBllIHH 8% B MecRy, TaK>Ke 6blJl BbICOKMM, "ITO nO,l:lpa3YMeBaeT, "ITO OKOJlO 40% Bbl6blTHH H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THb1X npOHCXO,l:lHJlO Ha HOBoe MeCTO pa60Tbl. 3Ta ,l:IOJlR OCTaBaJlaCb CTa6HJlbHOH B 1992 r. 3aMe,l:lJleHHe TeMna pocTa 6e3pa60THUbi nOCJle III KB. 1992 r. 06'bRCHR- 25,r.{aHHble BUI10M. Popkin. and others (1992), HCnOJlb3YR Ha60p ,l:IaHHbIX 0 HaCeJleHHH, nOJlY...HJlH oyeHKY, paBHyJO 3% Ha III KB. 1992 r. ,r.{aHHble 06CJle,l:lOBaHHR pa604eH CHJlbl, ony6JlHKOBaHbie B 1994, ,l:IalOT ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THUbi Ha ypoBHe 4% B OTKTR6pe 1993. ~anpHMep B nOJlbllIe B 1991-1993 IT. TeMn Bbl6blTHR COCTaBJlRJl 4YTb 60JlbllIe 4%, a TeMn Bbl6blTHR Ha pa60TY - 2,2%. 218 Be3pa6omulja, nepecmpoi11w 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyi:)a eTCR npeHMytUeCTBeHHO 60JJee HH3KHMH TeMnaMH npHTOKa B COCTaS 6e3pa6oTHblX. PHCyHOK 4-12. POCCHR, 6e3pa6oTHya H BaKaHCHH, .IleKa6pb 1991 r. - ceHTH6pb 1993 r (B MJJH.). 1.2 , - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ~------------ 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 Bbl6blTHe H3 t.lHCJJa 6e3pa6OTHbiX no OTpaCJJHM T04HO Y4eCTb TPY.llHO. ,[laHHble 0 4HCJJe nOJJY4eHHbiX pa604HX MeCT, O.llHaKO, rOBopHT, "ITO He TOJJbKO nO.llaBJJRIOy!ee 60JJbUlHHCTBO - 85 % - nepeXO.llOB H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa6OTHbiX Ha pa60TY npOHCXO.llHJJO Ha pa604He MeCTa B rOCY.IlapCTBeHHOM ceKTope, HO H 0 TOM, "ITO Ha6JJIO.IlaJJHCb 3Ha4HTeJJb- Hble pa3JJH4HR nOTOKOB B 4aCTHbie npe.llnpHHTHR H KOJJJJeKTHBbl no perno HaM, .Il0CTHraR 25-30% B HeCKOJJbKHX pernOHax (60JJee nO.Qp06HO CM. Commander, Liberman. and Yemtsov, 1993c). ,[laJJee MO)KHO onpe.lleJJHTb 3¢¢eKTHBHoCTb HaXO)K.lleHHH HOBoro pa604ero MeCTa. BOJJee TpeTH pa604Hx MeCT 6blJJO HaH.QeHo B nepBblH MeCRY 6e3pa60- THYbl. a OKOJJO 80% - B Te4eHHe nepBblX 4eTbipeX MecRyeB. 3TO TaK)Ke BepHO .QJJR BnepBble BCTynalOy!HX B COCTaB pa604eH CHJJbl H MOJJO.llblX 6e3pa60THb1X. POCCUR 219 PHCYHOK 4-13. POCCMlI. npMToK M Bbl6blTMe M3 'IMClIa 6e3pa6OTHbIx. lIHBapb 1992 r. - CeHT1I6pb 1993 r. lI4I) 230 120 110 2IlO 1110 1110 170 1410 150 f40 lao 120 ""'110 100 110 10 70 10 60 ~. 40 ao o npHTOK ,. OrrOK <> Tpy,qoycrpo&HO PHC}'HOK 4-14. POCCMlI. e)l(eMeC1I4HbIe 4MCTbie nOTOKM B COCTaB 6e3pa6oTHblX, flHBapb 1992 r. - CeHT1I6pb 1993 r. 110 10 70 110 60 40 30 20 J 10 --_. -10 40 -30 .4Q .so .., --. , 1 I ' . 'I' 'i -...... "'- '-{TO KaCaeTClI npO,nOlI)I(HTelIbHOCTM nepHO,na 6e3pa6oTH!Jbl. TO 220 He3pa6omul.la, nepecmpofbca 3'KOHOMU'KU U PbtHO'K mpyoa B Ha"laJle 1993 r. nO"lTH 11% 6e3pa60THbiX HBJlHJlHCb TaKOBbIMH 60Jlee ro,na, H pa3JlH"IHH no pemoHaM 6blJlH ,nOBOJlbHO Manbl. 3TO HBHaH He,nooyeHKa, Y"IHTblBaH MacIllTa6bl CHHTHH C Y"IeTa 6e3pa60THbiX C Te"leHHeM BpeMeHH (cOrJlaCHO pe3YJlbTaTaM 06CJle,noBaHHH B cepe,nHHe 1993 r. nO"lTH TpeTb pecnoH,neHToB 6blJlH 6e3pa60THblMH 60nbille 8 MecHyeB). HecMoTpH Ha BblCOKYIO ,nOJlIO )f(eHIYHH B 06IyeH "IHCneHHOCTH 6e3pa60THb1X, JlHlllb 20% XpOHH"IeCKH 6e3pa60THbiX 6blnH )f(eHl,!!HHaMH, Tor,na KaK TpH "IeTBepTH XpOHH"IeCKH 6e3pa60THbiX npO)f(HBaJlO B cenbcKoH MeCTHOCTH. 3TO BepoHTHo 03Ha"laeT, "ITO )f(eHIyHHbl nOKH,na- lOT COCTaB pa60"leH CHnbl HJlH, no KpaHHeH Mepe, npeKpalYalOT pemCTpHpoBaTbcH. He HCHO, BJlHHIOT JlH O"leHb cna6ble CTHMY Jlbl npo,non)f(aTb pemcTpaYHIO Ha O"leHb HH3KYIO "IHCneHHOCTb XpOHH"IeCKH 6e3pa60THbiX B ropo,ncKOH MeCTHOCTH. KaKoBbl )f(e xapaKTepHcTHKH 6e3pa60THYbl, CCPOpMHpoBaBIllHe- CH K HaCToHIyeMY BpeMeHH? XOTH B Ha"lane 1993 r. "IYTb MeHbllle 10% 06IyeH "IHCJleHHOCTH 6e3pa60THbiX npHxo,nHnocb Ha BnepBble HIYYIyHX pa60TY, ropa3,n0 60nee y,nHBHTeJlbHO, "ITO CBblille 70% 3apemcTpHpo- BaHHblX 6e3pa6OTHbix COCTaBnHJlH )f(eHIyHHbl, H 3Ta ,nOJlH OCTaBanaCb B yeJlOM CTa6HnbHa B 1992-1993 IT. 3TO ,nOBOJlbHO XOPOIllO cornacy- eTCH C TeM, "ITO Mbl 3HaeM 06 H3MeHeHHHX B 3aHHTOCTH H ,nOJle )f(eHIYHH B COCTaBe YBoneHHbIX, oc06eHHO ysoneHHblX He no c06CTBeH- HOMY )f(eJlaHHIO. Ha PHcYHKe 4-15 npHBe,neH rpacpHK ypOBHH 6e3pa60- THybl no 06nacTHM B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT ,nonH )f(eHIyHH-6e3pa60THbIX B 06IyeH "IHCneHHOCTH 6e3pa60THbiX 06JlaCTH. KaK HCHO BH,nHO, H ypoBeHb 6e3pa6OTHYl>1 H ,nOJlH )f(eHIyHH cocpe,noTO"leHbI B O,nHOH oKpeCTHocTH, HO HBHO npOCJle)f(HBaeTCll TaK)f(e 06paTHafi CBH3b Me)f(,l:lY ypoBHeM 6e3pa60THYbl H ,noneH )f(eHIyHH cpe,nH 6e3pa60THbIX. B 06nacTHx C 60Jlee BblCOKHM 06IyHM ypoBHeM 6e3pa60THYbi 3aMeTHO HH)f(e ,nonH )f(eHIyHH-6e3pa60THbIX, TaK "ITO Jl1060e ,nanbHeHlllee ,nBH)f(eHHe K60nee BblCOKOH OTKPblTOH 6e3pa60THye 6y,neT COnpOBO)f(- ,naTbCfI H3MeHeHHeM COCTaBa 6e3pa60THb1X, 60nee CHJlbHO 3aTparnBafi MY)f(CKYIO pa60"lYIO CHJlY H, CKopee Bcero, npOH3Bo,nCTBeHHbIX pa60"lHx. HaKoHey, XOTH O"leBH,nHoH CBfl3H Me)f(,ny TeMnOM H3MeHeHHfI 3apa60THoH nnaTbl H ypOBHeM 6e3pa60THYbl H He Ha6nlO,naeTCH, "ITO BpH,n JlH MO)f(eT y,nHBJlllTb, Y"IHTblBaH HH3KHH H ,nOBOJlbHO o,nHHaKOBbIH ypOBeHb 6e3pa60THYbl, HaM Ka)f(eTCH MO)f(HO Bbl,nenHTb HeKOTopble 3apO)f(,naIOIyHeCH CBR3H Me)f(,ny nOBe,neHHeM peanbHOH 3apa60THOH nnaTbl H 3aH.fITOCTbIO Ha ypOBHe OTpacneH npOMbIIllJleHHOCTH, KaK Y)f(e OTMe"laJlOCb. Llanee, paCCMaTpHBall 06JlaCTH KaK 3KBHBaneHT pa3nH"I- HblX HJlH CerMeHTHpOBaHHblX PblHKOB Tpy,na - B 06IyeM pa3YMHoe POCCUJl 221 npe,QnonO>KeHHe. Y4HTblBaH OrpaHH4eHH)'IO BHyrpeHHlO1O MHrpaUHIO - H COOTHOCH H3MeHeHHH B OnnaTe TpY,Qa C HaWeH YT04HeHHOH MepOH 6e3pa6OTHUbl - OTKPblTOH 6e3pa6oTHUbl. nnlOc 4aCTH4HaH 3aHHTOCTb. KOTOpaH onpe,QeneHa KaK pa6OTHHKH. HaXO,QHIJ!HeCH B BbIHY>K.QeHHbIX OTnYCKaX H pa6OTalOIJ!He HenOnHblH pa604HH ,QeHb - Mbl B caM OM ,Qene MO>KeM Ha6nlO,QaTb npHBbl4HYIO CBH3b 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl C nepeMeHHbI- MH 3KOHOMH4eCKOH aKTHBHOCTH. Ha PHcYHKax 4-16 H 4-17 nOKa3aHa CBH3b 3ToH YT04HeHHoH Mepbl 6e3pa6oTHUbi C H3MeHeHHHMH HOMHHanbHoH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl no ceMH,QeCHTH ceMH o6naCTHM H pecny6nHKaM B ,QBa Ba>KHbIX MOMeHTa BpeMeHH. B aBryCTe 1992 r. H MapTe 1993 r. nOMHMO Toro, "ITO H3 PHCYHKOB BH,QHO COKpalJ!eHHe pa3pblBa Me>K,Qy YTOqHeHHblMH YPOBHHMH 6e3pa6oTHlJbI no 06naCTHM. Mbl MO>KeM C,QenaTb BbIBO,Q 0 cna60H 06paTHOH CBH3H, T.e. "ITO 60nee BblCOKOMY ypOBHIO 6e3pa6oTH- UbI COOTBeTCTBYIOT 60nee HH3KHe H3MeHeHHH 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbI. PHCYHOK 4-15. POCCHH, 6e3pa6oTHlJa cpe,QH >KeHIJ!HH, 1993 r. 0.04 , - - - o o o o o o o 00 0 :Cb 0 o o ICI o o o o 0 ~onli .lkeHLl.\MH B COCTa88 6e.apa60THlolX,1.01.93 o 06naCT14 Mpecny6nMKM PIS> 222 Be3pa6omulja, nepecrnpoiiKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbIHOK mpyoa PHC)'HKH 4-16,17. Be3pa6oTMJ,!a/HHcjJJ1.f1J,!H.fI 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl, 1992 r./1991 r. H 1993/91 21 III 0 III I 26 114 0 1 Zl 12 DO 21 0 110 '" 0 I "" DOD O@ 0 0 0 0 0 I 17 DO " 000 ,. 0 B i " tiD 0 13 °ODcPll fj ; 0 0 12 o D. q, 0 o 0 0 0 11 0 'b 0 0 10 • 0 J • 0 n 0.0. 3apIrMc:rp./SeapI&mI. IIIIICI'H_ I8H11'YOC11t, ypce8HIo • 0.08 ---L--... 0.12 0.1' a~ D.2 1992 0.114 120 r---r~~--~~~-------- ..- - -...--~----' o 51 (lie 0 DO Ii '" ~ 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 L 1 70 00 0 0 0 i o CijOay.HeH; J1HWb B 17% CJ1Y4aeB OHa YCTaHaBnHBanaCb nYTeM .RBHbIX neperOBopOB B TOH HJ1H HHOH cpopMe, H 3TO B nO,l:laBJ1l1lOlJ!eM CBoeM 60nbwHHCTBe xapaKTepHO M.R He60J1b- WHX npe,l:lnpHlITHH, a neperOBopbI BeJ1HCb no nOBOAY HH,I:IHBH,l:\yaJ1bHbIX KOHTpaKTOB. ,[{anee, BllHlIHHe PYKOBO,l:lCTBa npe,l:lnpH.RTH.R B npHH.RTHH 27 peweHHH 0 3apa60THOH nJ1aTe, nO-BH,I:IHMOMY, yseJ1H4HJ10Cb. 113 Ta6J1Hy'bl 4-11 He TOJ1bKO BH,I:IHO, 4TO cpopMaJ1bHble npe,l:lCTaBHTeJ1H pa604HX npe,l:lnpHlITHlI Ha neperOBopax npe,l:lCTaBJ1eHbI cJ1a60, HO H TO, 4TO HX npHCYTCTBHe Ha nOJ1yrOCY,l:lapCTBeHHbIX H oc06eHHO 4aCTHbiX npennpmtTHlIX COKpalJ!aeTClI. B 061J!eM MO:lKHO npenn0J10:lKHTb, 4TO BJ1aCTb PYKOBO,l:lCTBa npe,l:lnpHlITHH CO BpeMeHeM B03paCTaJ1a (H BepORTHO, 6yneT B03paCTaTb H naJ1bWe no Mepe pa3BHTHR npHBaTH3a!JHH).28 3apa6oTHaR nJ1aTa 213 IV KB. 1992 r. OK0J10 4eTBepTH npennpHRTHH H3 Bbl60PKH OTMeTHJ1H, 4TO npaBHJ1a YCTaHOBJ1eHHlI pa3Mepa OnJ1aTbI Tpyna H3MeHHJ1HCb H B 80% CJJY4aeB YKa3aJ1H, 4TO 3TO H3MeHeHHe npe,l:lycMa- TpHBano HenBYCMblcneHHoe YBenH4eHHe ponH H BJ1HRHH.R PYKOBO,l:lCTBa npe,l:lnpH.RTH.R B onpe,l:leJJeHHH YPOBH.R OnnaTbI Tpy,l:la. 28KoHe4HO, cpaKTH4eCKH BblCOKaR He3aBHCHMOCTb PYKOBO,l:lCTBa 224 Be3pa6omUlla, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa orpaHHt.jHBaJIaCb B OCHOBHOM BblpyqKOM npetlnpH.RTH.R (H tlOTalJ,H.RMH) H B rOpa3tlO MeHbrneM CTeneHH HaJIoroBblM pe)KHMOM. 'YTO KaCaeTC.R perneHHM B 06JIaCTH 3aH.RTOCTH. nOt.jTH B tleB.RTH H3 tleC.RTH CJIyqaeB, perneHH.R 06 yaOJIbHeHHH pa60THHKOB npHHHMaJJHCb HCKJIIOt.jHTeJIbHO tlHpeKTOpOM npetlnpH.RTH.R JIH60 atlMHHHCTpaYHeM. OrpaHHt.jeHH.R Ha yaOJIbHeHH.R, 06YCJ10BJIeHHble Onn03HlJ,HeM pa60t.jHx, 06blt.jHO OTCYT- CTBOBaJIH. a OCHOBHble npen.RTCTBH.fI nOpO)KtlaJIHCb 3aKOHOtlaTeJJbHoM CHCTeMOM (Ta6JIHua 4-12). Ta6JIHUa 4-11. POJIb opraHH3alJ,HM, BeJ:tYlW1x neperoBopbl C atlMHHHC- TpalJ,HeM Ha npetlnpH.RTHH: I KB. 1993 r. (8 np0tjeHmax) Kame?OpUR 3Ha1.lU- He3Ha1.lU- Omcym- mellbHaR meJlbHaR cm8Y1Om llPO¢COI03bl rOCYJlllpeTII_l~ 19 .is nonyrOCYJlllpeT8CH11>1~ IS 49 12 'I""TBl>IC 19 20 37 cofJerrtbl pa601.lux rO<:Y.....peTII.mu.lc 7 18 47 nOllYl'O<:)',IllIpeTIIC......lc 8 17 41 'I&t'I'ItOIC 2 6 74 3a6acmofJ01.lHbl.e KOMUmembl. o,s '1_. rocy.... peTllCwwc nonyrocy....peT..lIIlbI. 0,4 0 2 76 76 81 npllMCqaaHe: CyMM& Ite BcerA,a paBHa lOO~ 113·la OTcyrCTB1UI OTICTOB. Hero""ax: Ol5cJteA08aHiI. BUHOM. TeM He MeHee, He CJIetlyeT npeHe6peraTb ((MOpaJIbHOM» BJIaCTblO COBeTOB pa60t.jHX B OTHorneHHH TaKHX perneHHM HJIH 60JIee Hecpop- MaJIbHblMH KaHaJIaMH, KOTopble n03BOJI.fIIOT HM (pa60t.jHM) tl06HTbC.R Toro, t.jT06bl HX MHeHHe 6blJIO yt.jTeHO. B caMOM tleJIe, OTBeTbi pa60t.jHX Ha BonpOCbl 06CJ1etlOBaHH.fI, KacalOlJJHeC.fI BbIrOtl OT npHBaTH3alJ,HH nOKa3blBalOT, t.jTO pa60t.jHe O)KHtlalOT yaeJIHt.jeHH.fI OnJIaTbl Tpytla B Kat.jeCTBe nJIaTbl 3a HX naCCHBHOCTb B npouecce npHBaTH3aUHH. Kopot.je rOBOp.fl, no BceM BHtlHMOCTH ynpaBJI.fIlOlJJHe 06JIatlalOT BblCOKOM CTeneHblO He3aBHCHMOCTH npH npHH.fITHH perneHHM no nOBOtly 3apa60THOM nJIaTbl H 3aH.fITOCTH, HO OHH Ot.jeBHtlHO npetlflOt.jJIH He npetlnpH.fITHM, BblCTynalOlJJero nOCpetlHHKOM Me~ rocytlapCTBOM H pa60t.jHMH Ha npetlnpHBaTH3aUHOHHOM CTatlHH, He 06.f13aTeJIbHO nOtlpa3YMeBaeT 60JIbrnee BHHMaHHe K HHTepecaM (OTCYTCTBYJOlJJero) co6CTBeHHHKa,roCYtlapCTBa. POCCUR 225 Bocnonb30BaTbCH elO llnH OCYl,ijeCTBneHHH Cepbe3HblX YSOnbHeHHH HnH peKOHCTpYK!JHH npOH3BOllCTBa; 60nbWaH yaCTb ynpaBnHlOl,ijHX pearnpyeT Ha H3MeHeHHe BHeWHeH 06CTaHOBKH naCCHBHO HnH Ta6JlHua 4-12. PeweHHH npe.QnpHHTHH 06 onnaTe TpY.Qa H 3aHHTOCTH, III KB. 1992 r. H IV KB. 1992 r. 7. K OTBeTHBWHM 3apa60TUaJ! unaTa YCTaHaBJlHBaeTCII aAMHHHCTpa{tHeH 83 nyreM neperoBopoB 17 OpHeHTHpbI AJlII YCTaHOBJleHHII pa3Mepa OnJlaTbi TpYAa' OTpaCJleBOH ypOBeHIo 27 PemOHaJlloHblH ypOBeHIo 15 nOTpe6HTenlocKHe {teHbI 56 HMelOll\Hecll pecypcbI 93 MaKCHManloHO AonycTHMblH pa3Mep 20 OrpaHHqeHHII Ha pa3Mep onnaTbi TPYAa' HanoroBbie npaBllna 34 Bblp)"lKa npeAnpHIITHII 78 HHCTpYK{tHH 3 npoqee 3 4Hcno YBeJlHqeHHH 3a. nJlaTbi B KBapTan (IV KB. 1992 T.) HH OAHOro 11 OAHO 50 ABa 32 Apyroe qHcnO 7 3allJITOCTb PeweHHe 06 YBonloHeHHIIX npHHHMaeT: AHpelKe Mbl B 06/1!HX 4epTaX OnHWeM npOCTyro MOJlMb H36bIT04HOH pa604eH CHnbl Ha npeJlnpH~TH~X. Bonee nOJlP06Hoe ee H3nO>KeHHe npHBeJleHO B TIpHnO>KeHHH. MOlleJib H36bITO'lHOH 3aHSITOCTH Mbl paCCMOTpHM npeJlnpH~THe, B ynpaBneHHH KOTOPblM JlOMHHHpyeT KOanHUH~ pa60THHKOB, 4beH 3aJla4eH ~Bn~eTC~ JlOCTH>KeHHe MaKCHMY- Ma nOne3HOCTH )ln~ pa60THHKa, BXOJl~I,lJero B Hee, yqHTblBa~ KaK aCneKTbl 3aH~TOCTH, TaK H 3apa60THOH nnaTbl.:lO 3TO npeJlnpH~THe, KOHTponHpyeMoe pa604HMH (TIKP), KaeT MOHono- nHCTH4eCKyro cHny 3Toro npeJlnpH~TH~, H !!eHa Ha Cblpbe KHT KOanH!!HH. B 3THX ycnoBHflX Jl06aBneHHa~ CTOHMOCTb JlOCTHrae-r MaKCHMYMa npH HeKOTopOM ypOBHe 3aH~TOCTH L* (ypaBHeHHe TIpHnO>KeHHfI 4). IHnOTe3a neoHTbeBcKoH TeXHonornH 3aKnlO4aeTCfI B TOM, 4TO Jlnfl Toro, 4T06bl pa604HH Mor 6blTb npOH3BOJlHTMbHbfM, Tpe6yroTCfI onpeJleneHHble CbIpbe H MaTepHanbl. 3TH MaTepHanbl He 6ecnnaTHbl, H B03MO>KHa cHTyaUHfI, KOrJla MO>KeT 6blTb C03JlaH 60nbWHH 06'beM ~oE5aBneHHOH CTOHMOc:rH, ecnH OCTaBHTb pa604ero 6e3 pa60Tbl, 4eM ecnH 3aCTaBHTb ero npOH3BOJlHTb, 3aKynHB He06xoJlHMbie MaTepHanbI. B03HHKaeT Bonpoc: MO>KeT nH Ha6nlOJlaTbCfI flBneHHe H36blT04HOH 3aH.RTOCTH Jla>Ke B TOM cnyqae, KOrJla pa604HH He MO>KeT 6bITb npOJlYKTHBHe 3aHflT? B TIpHnO>KeHHH Mbl nOKa>KeM, 4TO XOT.R npeJlnpH.RTHe HHKOrJla He npOH3BOJlHT 60nbwe, 4eM npOH3BOJl~T L* 3aH.RTblx. nocKonbKY 3TO cOKpaTHno 6bI Jl06aaneHHyro croHMOCTb. OHO MO>KeT npeJln04eCTb Jlep>KaTb B COCTaBe 3aH.RTbIX 60nbwe pa604Hx, 4eM L*. 3TO npOHcxo- JlHT nOToMY, 4TO H36b1T04Ha~ 3aH.RTOCTb paCWHp.ReT 4Hcno BapHaHToB ~TO nOJlTBep>KJlaeTC.R JlaHHbIMH 06CneJlOBaHH.R BijHOM, HO npOTHBOpe4HT BblBOJlaM Fan, and Schaffer, 1993, nonyqeHHbIM Ha OCHOBe MeHbweH Bbl60PKH npeJlnpH.RTHH. 3OJ\aK H B Commander, Coricelli, and Staehr, 1992. 3aMeTHM, 4TO BbICOKa.R CTeneHb He3aBHCHMOCTH He 06.R3aTenbHO 03Ha4aeT HH3KHH KeHHe MO.llenb U36blTOQHOit 3aHSITOCTU Ha npe.llnpUSITUU, KOHTpOnU- PYJOlJleMCSI pa60THUKaMU OnmUMa.tlbHaR u36blmO'iHaR 3aHRmocmb Ha n KP Mbl npHBO,l:lHM npoCTYJO MO,l:leJlb H36blT04HOH 3aHflTOCTH Ha npe,l:lnpHflTHH,KOHTpOJlHPyeMoMpa6oTHHKaMH(TIKP).TIpe,l:lnOJlaraeTCfI, 'ITO npe,l:lnpHflTHe ~YHKYHOHHpyeT B YCJlOBHflX JleOHTbeBCKOH TeXHOJlOnm C nOCTOflHHOH OT,I:la4eH OT MaCWTa60B npOH3BO,l:lCTBa H 310KOJlO nOJlOBHHbl peCnOH,I:leHTOB 06CJle,l:lOBaHHfI BIJ110M o!,!eHHJlH BepOfITHOCTb nOTepH HMH pa604ero MeCTa B 6JlH)J(aHweM 6Y!lYIYeM KaK BbICOKYJO. POCCUR 231 o6nanaeT PblH04HOH BnaCTblO. AnR nKP Ba)KHa KaK 3apa6OTHa.fl nnaTa, TaK H 3aH.fITOCTb (.fIBHbIH BHn ueneBOH rl>YHKUHH MbI npHBeneM HH)Ke). OtTheM npOH3BOnCTBa H 06paTHa.fl rl>YHKUH.fI cnpoca onpeneneHbI CnenyJOij,lHM o6pa30M: (4-1) Y - min (M,L) (4-2) P = a - bY, rne Y - 06"beM npOH3BonCTBa, M - MaTepHanbHble rl>aKTOpbl npOH3Bon- CTBa, L - TPyn, P - ueHbl npOnyKUHH, a a H b - napaMeTpbl. npOH3Bon- CTBeHHa.fl rl>YHKUH.fI c rl>HKcHpoBaHHbIMH K03r1>rI>HUHeHTaMH onpenen.fleT H3J10)KeHHble HH)Ke pe3YnbTaTbI; nHHeHHblH BHn o6paTHoH rl>YHKUHH cnpoca He HMeeT TaKoro 3Ha4eHH.fI, OnHaKO nn.fl npOCTOTbI Mbl Hcnonb30BanH HMeHHO ero.32 Bblpa)KeHHe llJ1.f1 no6aBneHHOH CTOHMOC- TH cnenyeT H3 ypaBHeHHH 4-1 H 4-2: (4-3) v - (a - pm)y - bY', rne V - n06aBneHHa.fl CTOHMOCTb, a pm - ueHa MaTepHanbHblx rl>aKTOpOB npoH3BOnCTBa. EcnH npennOnO)KHTb, 4TO uenblO npennpH.fITH.fI S1M.fIeTC.fl MaKcHMH3aUH.fI no6aBneHHoH CTOHMOCTH, Mbl nonyt.tHM cnenYJOij,lHe Bblpa)KeHH.fI nn.fl onTHManbHoro 06"beMa npOH3BOnCTBa, ueHbl H no6aBneHHoH CTOHMOCTH: (4-4) Y" = (a - pm)/2b (4-5) • (4-6) v* = [(a - p"')2]/4b. MaKcHManbHa.fl senH4HHa n06aBneHHoH CTOHMOCTH nOCTHra- eTC.fI npH Y", KOTOPblH, KaK MbI 3HaeM H3 ypaBHeHH.fI 4-1, 6yneT paSHO KaK L *, TaK H NI. Y" 3anaeT BepXHHH npenen 06"beMa npoH3S0nCTBa nKP. 06"beM npoH3S0nCTBa Shlllle Y" COKpaTHT 06"beM npH6hlnH, IYHIICHM 6e3 H36bIT04HOH 3aHflTOCTH). TaKHM 06pa30M, B peaYJIbTaTe He6JIarOnpH- .RTHOrO H3MeHeHHfI ueH B03paCTaeT 06beM BbmYCKa Ha ollHoro pa604ero, HO He 1l06aB04Hafi CTOHMOCTb. Kop04e rOBOpJ,l. pOCT ueH Ha 4laKTOpbl npOH3BOllCTBa npHBOllHT K COKpalj!eHHIO 06beMa npOH3BOllCTBa H 1l06aBJIeHHOH CTOHMOCTH. COKpalYeHHe 1l06aBJIeHHOH CTOHMOCTH BelleT K cOKpalYeHHIO 3aHflTOC- TH, HO He K H3MeHeHHflM B 3apa60THOH nJIaTe. nOCKOJIbKY COKpalYeHHe 3aHflTOCTH 60JIbwe. 4eM COKpalYeHHe 06beMa npOH3BOllCTBa, H36b1T04- Hafl 3aHflToCTb COKpalYaeTCfI. B6edeHue 6 MOde.nb 3ampam Ha COKpal.l.leHUe 3aHRmocmu B llaHHOM pa311eJIe Mbl ClleJIaeM npOCToe npellnOJIO)ICeHHe 0 3aTpaTax Ha COKpalYeHHe 3aH.RTOCTH. HaeM pa604eH CHJIbl HH4ero He CTOHT, a yeOJIbHeHHe Hen03BOJIHTeJIbHO lloporo. EJ:tHHCTBeHHbIH cnoc06 COKpaTHTb 3aHflTOCTb - ee eCTeCTBeHHafi y6blJIb. l{HCJIeHHOCTb 36ECJIH 06paTHa.R 4lYHKUHfi cnpoca HMeeT nOCToflHHYIO 3JIaCTH4HOC- Tb, p ,. (l/e)Y', rile e < 1, 3JIaCTH4HOCTb no C paBHa lI(l-e).Y Ka4eCTBeHHblH BblBOll TOT )ICe: H36blT04Hafi aaHflTOCTb cOKpalj!aeTCfI B OTBeT Ha pOCT UeH MarepHaJIbHblX 4laKTOpOB npoH3BollCTBa. 236 Be3pa6omuqa, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMWW U PblHOK mpyda pa60"lHX, nOKHna~q&HX npennpHHTHe TaKHM 06pa30M 0603Ha"lHM A. Tenepb npennOJlO)l(HM, "ITO A COCTaBJlHeT nOCToHHH)'lO nOJl~ - k - pa60"leH CHJlbl B Ka~blH nepHOn. ECJlH nKP nblTaeTCH cOKpaTHTb CBO~ 3aHHTOCTb, aHa 6yneT HaHHMaTb H ~ 0 pa60THHKOB (npennOJlaraeTCfI, "ITO Bce pa60THHKH OnHOH H TOH )l(e KBaJlHl:)lHKaUHH). 3TO n03BOJlHeT HaM 3anHcaTb cJleny~lJ!ee JlHHeHHO OnHOpOnHoe nH¢¢epeHUHaJlbHOe ypaBHeHHe nepBom nopfmKa: (4-15) dUdl + kL = 0, rne t 0603Ha"laeT BpeMH. PemeHHe :noro ypaBHeHHfI: (4-16) L(t) = U(O)e..tt, rne LU(O) - 3aHHTOCTb B CTa!,!HOHapHOM pe)l(HMe ¢YHKlJ,HOHHpOBaHHH no He6J1arOnpHHTHoro B03neHCTBHfI. Pemafl3TO ypaBHeHHe OTHOCHTenbHO BpeMeHH t', KOTopoe 3aHHMaeT nepexon K HOBOMY CTaUHOHapHOMY pe)l(HMY ¢YHKlJ,HOHHpOBaHHfI, L U, nOJlyqHM: (4-17) l' .. (1/k)(InU(0) - In U), rne In(.) - HaTypanbHblH norapH¢M. 'LfTo6bl nOHHTb, "ITO npOHcxonHT C H36blTO"lHOH 3aHHTOCTb~ Ha 3TOH TpaeKTopHH, BcnOMHHM, "ITO Me~y nByMH CTaUHOHapHblMH COCTOflHHHMH OTHOCHTeJlbHoe H3MeHeHHe yo paBHO nOJlOBHHe OTHOCHTenbHoro H3MeHeHHH L". CnenOBaTenbHO, B MOMeHT, Korna L(t)=(1/2)[L"(0) + U], OTHOCHTenbHoe H3MeHeHHe 3aHHTOCTH paBHO OTHOCHTeJlbHOMY H3MeHeHH~ 06'beMa BblnycKa nponyKlJ,HH, n03ToMY H3MeHeHHH H36blT04HOH 3aHflTOCTH He Ha6J1~na­ eTCH. 0603Ha4HM 3TOT MOMeHT BpeMeHH l". Me)l(ny £(0) H t" ypOBeHb H36blTO"lHOH 3aHflTOCTH npeBblmaeT CBOe 3Ha"leHHe no lJ,eHOBoro mOKa; Me~y t" H l' OH HH)I(e CBoero 3Ha4eHHfI no mOKa. A B T04Ke l' H36blTo4HaH 3aHHTOCTb nOCTHraeT CBoero HOBoro cTaUHoHapHoro ypOBHfI. Bblpa)l(eHHe nJlfl t" cneny~l!!ee: (4-18) til = (1/k){ln U(O) - in[(U(O) - L")/2]}. He6J1arOnpHHTHoe H3MeHeHHe lJ,eH Ha MaTepHaJlbHble ¢aKTopbl npoH~lBOnCTBa nepBOHa4aJlbHO npHBOnHT K yBenH4eHH~ H36blTO"lHOH 3aHHTOCTH, HO B KOHe4HOM HTore K ee cOKpal!!eHH~. POCCUJl 237 HaeM HofiblX pa6omHuKofi 6 cmaLluoHapHoM pe'JKUMe U 6 mfNeHue nepex.oiJ~1Olo nepuoiJa Tenepb 06paTHMcff K np06JIeMe HaitMa pa60THHKOB KaK B CTaUHOHap- HOM COCTOffHHH, TaK H BO BpeMfi nepeXOAHoro nepHOAa. B npoCTeitweM CJIyqae eCJIH B CTaUHOHapHOM COCTOflHHH C H36bIT04HOit 3aHflTOCTbIO Ka)l(}:(blit nepHOA no eCTeCTBeHHblM npH4HHaM 3aHflTOCTb cOKpalllaeTCfI Ha onpeAeJIeHHYIO BeJIH4HHY, TO nKP 6YAeT HaHHMaTb pa60THHKOB. H36bIT04Hafi 3aHflTOCTb H HaeM HOBblX pa60THHKOB B3aHMHO He HCKJII04alOT APyr APyra, Aa)!(e B MOAeJIH C OAHOPOAHOit pa604eit CHJIOit H 6e3 yqeTa 3aTpaT Ha coxpaHeHHe 3aHflTOCTH. 1.!T06bl 3anHcaTb 3T0 B flBHoit , BBe.oeHHblH rO.oOM paHee B nOJIbwe. lJ.eHbl Ha (npaKTH4ecKH) Bce TOBapbl H yCJlyrn CTaJll1 CB060.oHblMH, 6blJl OTMeHeH 243 KOHTPOJIb 3a BHeWHeTOprOBOH lleHTeJIbHOCTblO H YHH¢HUHpOBaH PbIHOK HHOCTpaHHoti BanlOTbI co CS060llHO nnaBalOlJJ.HM 06MeHHbIM KypCOM . .!loTaUHH 6bInH COKpalJJ.eHbl HnH OTMeHeHbI, a rOCYllapCTseHHbIe npellnpHHTHH nonY'IHnH caMOCTOHTenbHOCTb B Bonpocax YCTaHOBne- HHH ueH Ha npOllYKUHlO, onpelleneHHH YPOBHH 3aHHTOCTH H HHseCTH- UHH (XOTH Ha Ha'lanbHOM 3Tane 3apa6OTHaH nnaTa OCTasanaCb nOll ueHTpanH30BaHHbIM KOHTponeM). HeCMOTpH Ha TO, 'ITO nporpaMMbI HeMellneHHOH WHpOKOMaCWTa6HOH npHBaTH3aUHH He npellYCMaTpHBa- nOCb, B03MO)l(HOCTb npHBaTH3aUHH c06CTseHHOCTH, B03BpaT 3eMnH ee npe)l(HHM SnalleJ1buaM H ¢OpMHposaHHe HOBblX '1aCTHbIX npellnpHHTHH npellYCMOTpeHbl 6blnH. 3TH Mepbl no nH6epanH3aUHH 3KOHOMHKH cOnpOBO)l(JlanHCb ¢HHaHcHPyeMoH MBIl! nporpaMMoti cTa6HnH3aUHH, KOTopaH nonara- naCb Ha: cOKpalJJ.eHHe 61Oll)l(eTHOrO lle¢HUHTa; KOnH'IeCTSeHHble orpaHH'IeHHH KpellHTHOH 3KcnaHCHH; BblCOKHe HOMHHanbHble (H, KaK HalleHnHcb, nOnO)l(HTeJ1bHble peanbHble) CTaSKH npoueHTa; a TaK)I(e nonHTHKY llOXOlloS, Hcnonb3YIOIJJ.YIO HanorOBble HHCTpYMeHTbI H HanpaBneHHYIO Ha orpaHH'IeHHe pOCTa HOMHHanbHoH 3apa6oTHoti nnaTbl. nOllP06HO Mepbl nH6epanH3aUHH H CTa6HnH3aUHH 3KOHOMHKH npHBollHTCH so Bpe3Ke 5-1. Co6blmw. HG pbIHKe mpyiJa: 3apa6omHaR nnama U 3aHRmocmb HenoCpellCTBeHHblM pe3ynbTaToM nH6epanH3aUHH 6bIn OrpOMHblH CKa'lOK ueH. XOTH TO'lHble UH¢pbl nonY'IHTb TPYllHO, He Bbl3bIBaeT COMHeHHH, 'ITO B ¢espane ueHbl ysenH'IHnHCb no MeHbweH Mepe Ha 1007. H elJ.!e Ha 507. B MapTe; TaKHM o6pa30M, K KOH!!y MapTa ueHbI 6blnH B TpH pa3a Bblwe, '1eM B HHsape. YicKnlO'IHTenbHo 60nbwHe MaCWTa6b1 pOCTa ueH, Y'lHTbIBaH orpaHH'IHTenbHYIO Hanoroso- 61Oll)l(eTHYIO H KpellHTHO-lleHe)l(HYIO nonHTHKY (Ta6nHua 5-1) MO)l(HO 06"HCHHTb MHrKOCTblO 3KOHOMH'IeCKOH nom1THKH B Te'leHHe Bcero 1990 1". B nepHoll Me)l(JlY nalleHHeM pe)l(HMa ilKHsKoBa B HOH6pe 1989 1". H BselleHHeM naKeTa CTa6HnH3aUHoHHbIX Mep B ¢eBpane 1991 r. lle¢HgHT 61Oll)l(eTa Bblwen H3-noll KOHTponH, a 3anaCbI ,IleHel" Y HaceneHHH H npellnpHHTHH B ycnoBHHx npo,llon)l(alOlJ.!erOCH KOHTponH ueH H nosceMeCTHOI"O TOBapHOI"O lle¢HUHTa, HaKannHsanHCb. HecMoTpH Ha OrpOMHblH POCT ueH, pOCT 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl nocne nH6epanH3aUHH 6bln orpaHH'IeH 457. 3a nepBblH KsapTan 1991 r. (PHCYHOK 5-1), 3TO npHseno K nepBOHa'lanbHO O'leHb pe3KoMY nalleHHIO peanbHoH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl (PHCYHOK 5-2), HO, 'ITO BepOHTHO 60nee Sa)l(HO, npellOTBparnno paCKpY'IHSaHHe I-fH¢nHUHOH- 244 5e3paOOmUlJa, nepecmpou1w 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa HOM cmfpanH 3apa60THaH nnaTa-ueHbl. B pe3ynbTaTe, HHtPnHUHH cOKpaTHnacb ,no 3-4%% B MecHU H coxpaHHnacb Ha 3TOM ypoBHe ,no KOHya ro,na (PHCYHOK 5-1). B Ta6nHue 5-1 npHBe,neHbl OCHOBHble MaKp03KOHOMHqeCKHX nOKa3aTenH BonrapHH 3a ,nBa ro,na nocne nH6epanH3aUHH ueH. Oc06eHHo Bbl,nenHIOTCH 04eHb pe3Koe cOKpa1!!eHHe BBn (Ha 26% C 1989 r. no 1992 r.) H e1!!e 60nee CHnbHoe (37%) na,neHHe npoMblwneH- Horo npoH3Bo,nCTBa. EcnH rOBopHTb 0 CTaTbHX pacxo,nOB, TO HaH60nee pe3Ko cOKpaTHnHcb pacxo,nbl Ha tPOpMHpOBaHHe OCHOBHora KanHTana (nOqTH Ha 40% no cpaBHeHHIO C 1988 r.) H otYbeM 3KcnopTa (Ha 63%), XOTH nocne,nHeH CTaTbe COOTBeTCTBOBanOTaKOe)Ke pe3KOe (60%) cOKpa1!!e- HHe 06'beMa HMnopTa. KaK rocy,napCTBeHHoe, TaK H 4aCTHoe nOTpe6ne- HHe B nepHo,n ((Me:lK,Q)'UapCTBHH)) 1990 r. pocno; B 1991 r. OHO TaK}Ke ,nOBonbHO pe3Ko COKpa1!!anoCb, a B 1992 r. CTa6HnH3HpoBanocb Ha ypoBHe npHMepHo Ha7,5% HH}Ke YPOBHH 1989 r. O,nHaKo, B 1992 r., Ha6nlO,nanocb 04eHb pe3Koe COKpa1!!eHHe HaKonneHWI 3anaCOB (CM. Ta6nHUY 5-1). Haqano oCYl!!eCTBJIeHHH naKeTa petPoPM BonrapHeH COBnano C pacna,nOM C3B. B pe3ynbTaTe, BHYTpeHHHe nOTpHceHHH, K KOTOPblM npHBena nH6epanH3aUHH ueH H KOHeu pe)KHMa H36blTOqHOrO BHYTpeH- Hero cnpoca COBnaJIH C npeKpa1!!eHHeM npHBHnernpOBaHHbIX ToprOBblX cornaweHHH C 6blBWHM COBeTCKHM COI030M. Pacna,n C3B oc06eHHO cepbe3HO CKa3anCH Ha BonrapHH. ,[tonH 3KcnopTa Ha pbIHKH C3B COCTaBnHna 76% 061!!ero 06'beMa 3KcnopTa BonrapHH, no cpaBHeHHIO C 45% ,nnH nOnbWH H YexocnoBaKHH, 40% ,nnH BeHrpHH H nHWb 24% ,nnH PYMbIHHH (,naHHble 3a 1989 r.). HaH60nbwHH cna,n npoH3Bo,nCTBa HcnblTanH Te oTpacnH npoMblwneHHoCTH (3neKTpOHHaH H XHMHqeCKaH npoMbIwneHHoCTb), KOTopble ,no petPoPM 6blnH opHeHTHpoBaHbl Ha PblHOK COBeTCKOrO COI03a. KaK BH,nHO H3 ,naHHbIX Ta6nHUbi 5-2, Ha4an paCTH 3KcnopT B CTpaHbl 3ana,na, B qaCTHOCTH B CTpaHbl EC, H era 06'beM C 1991 r. no 1992 r. npHMepHo y,nBoHncH (6a30Boe 3HaqeHHe 6blno HH3KO). O,nHaKo B 1993 r. otYbeM 3KcnopTa CHOBa pe3Ko cOKpaTHncH, no 60nbweH qaCTH B pe3ynbTaTe CaHK!!HH OOH npoTHB Cep6HH H HapyweHHH ToproBblx nYTeH. MO)KHO YTBep)K,llaTb, "ITO 3TH npenHTCTBHH pOCTy o6'beMa pblHKa 3KcnopTa B 3ana,nHbJe CTpaHbJ 6blJ1H HaH60nee Ba}KHbIM tPaKTOPOM, npenHTCTBYI01!!HM 3KOHOMH4eCKOMY B03pO)K,lleHHIO Bonra- pHH, TOqHO TaK )Ke, KaK H B ,npyrnx CTpaHax BOCTOqHOM EBponbI. So.tlzapufl. 245 Bpe3Ka 5-1. npornaMMa peibopM H CTa6HJlH3aUHH Pe4>OPMbI 1991 f. npHllenH K nH6epanH3al(HH QeH. OTKPblTOCTH 3KOHOMHKH WIll BHewHeH ToproBJIH. nepell,a'le 3eMnH B pyJHI(HTa C 9,2" BBIl II 1990 f. ll,O 0.1" BBIl B 1991 f •• B OCHOBHOM aa C'IeT CHHlKeHHR 06'heMa AOTaI(HH. KOTopble AonlKHbI 6b1nH COKpaTHThCB C 16" BBIl B COKpaU{eHHe 1990 f. ll,O TeKyU{HX 3" BBIl B 1991 aCCHrHOBaHHH f •• HO npeAYCMaTpHBaJlOCh TaKlKe H H KanHTaJlhHhlX paCXOAOIl. XOTB aannaHHpOBaHHoe COKpaU{eHHe paCXOll,OB 6wno peanHaOBaHO (paCXOll,Hall '1aCTh 610AlKeTa B peaJlhHOM BwpalKeHHH COKpaTHJlaCTh Ha 46"). B peaYJlhTaTe peaKoro nall,eHHB npoH3BOACTBa. AOXOAbi He AOCTHfnH 3anpOeKTHpoBaHHoro ypoBHII. B peaYJlhTaTe. B 1991 f. ll,e4>HI(HT 61Oll,lKeTa OKaaaJlCB 60nbwe nnaHHPyeMoro - 3.7" BBIl. TeM He MeHee. He B03HHKaeT COMHeHH" B TOM. 'ITO B 3TOT nepHOA cl>eKTHBHOCTH caMHX nHMHTOB npHpOCTa 06'beMOB Kpe.o;HTOBaHHR. ll,CUhI lleHTpaJlbHOe MeCTO B naKeTe Mep CTa6HJlH3a4HH cl>eBpaJlR 1991 .... 3aHHMaJla nH6epanH3a4HR Bcex 4eH npoH3Bo.o;HTeneH H Bcex nOTpe6HTeJlbCKHX 4eH. B TOH HJlH HHOH cl>opMe KOHTPOJlb 3a 4eHaMH cOXpaHHJlCR .o;JlR 'IeTbipeX rpynn TOBapoB: a) lleHbI Ha 3JleKTp03HepmlO. yroJlb H 4eHTpaJlbHOe OTOnJleHHe 6blJlH cl>HKcHpoBaHbI ...ocy.o;apcTBoM. HO nOBblWaJlHCb B HIOHe 1991 ..... Mae 1992 ..... cl>eBpaJle H HOR6pe 1993 .... 6) ll,eHbI Ha HeKOTopble npo.o;YKTbI nHTaHHR. a Tenepb H Ha Me.o;HKa- MeHTbI, perynHpYIOTcR nYTeM YCTaHOBJleHHR npellenbHblX Ha4eHOK (nepBoHa- '1anbHO - 6-81.. ceH'Iac 121. llnR npo.o;YKTOB nHTaHHR H 201. .o;nR Me.o;HKaMeH- TOB). B) BHYTpeHHHe 4eHbI Ha Hecl>Tb H .o;pyroe }KH.o;Koe TOnJlHBO YCTaHaBJlH- BalOTCR Ha ypOBHe MHPOBOii 4eHbI, 3a KOTOpylO npHHHMaeTCR 4eHa Ha pblHKax HTanHH, YMHO}KeHHaH Ha 06MeHHblH KYPC JleBa Ha .o;OJlJ1ap CllA • ...) .1lJlR weCTH npo.o;YKTOB CeJlbCKoro X03l1iiCTBa YCTaHOBJleHbI 3aKynO'lHble 4eHbI. Y'IHTblBalOllIHe He06xOllHMOCTb coxpaHeHHR 3THX nOtl,OTpaC- neii cenbcKoro X03RiicTBa. CTOHT 3aMeTHTb, 'ITO Bce 3TH HCK,llIO'IeHHR orpaHH'IHBaIOTCH 3HepreTH'IeCKOii H nHllIeBoii npOMblWJleHHOCTblO. KaKHX 6b1 TO HH 6b1no orpaHH'IeHHH Ha 4eHbI npo.o;YK4HH nepepa6aTbiBalOllIHX OTpacneH HJlH ycnym He CYllIecTByeT. 3apa6oTHaH nJiaTa MaKCHManbHbie npe.o;eJlbl pOCTa pacxo.o;OB Ha onJlaTY Tpy.o;a YCTaHaBJlHBanHCb .o;JlR Ka}K.o;oro npe.o;npHRTHII TpeXCTOpOHHeii KOMMHCCHeii. Pacxo.o;bI Ha onnaTY Tpy.o;a. npeBbiwalOllIHe YCTaHOBneHHble npe.o;eJlbl 06Jla ...a- nHCb HaJloroM Ha npeBblweHHe JlHMHTa pacxo.o;OB Ha OnJlaTY Tpy.o;a (CM. Bpe3KY ~. Ta6JIHy'a 5-1. 6oJlrapl1.R: OCHoBHble 3KOHOMI1l1eCKHe nOKa3aTeJII1 lloKa3aTenb 1989 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991 1992 HOMHHaJlbHOe 3Ha'leHHe (MJlH JleSoB) PeaJYbHble TeMnbl pOCTa BBll 39579,2 45389,8 131058,0 195000,0 -9,1 -11,7 -7.0 CeJlbCKOe H neCHoe X03RHCTBO 4330,7 8054,6 20139,0 20200,0 -3,7 7,7 -7,0 llpoMblwneHHoCTb 23507,0 23273,6 62843,0 90800,0 -12,5 -18,6 -1,0 Ycnyrn 11 741,5 14061.6 48076,0 84000,0 -4.3 -11,3 -3,0 Bcero nOTpe6JleHHe 27 998,7 33584,6 • 99305,0 164170.0 0.3 -8,7 0,0 IiHBeCTHL\HH B OCHOBHOH KanHTaJl 10328,2 9651,9 24777,0 39310,0 -18,5 -19,9 -1.0 3anacbI 2776.3 4148,4 11 834,0 6000.0 -49,7 -5.7 -83,0 t.{HcneHHocTb TeMllbi pOCTa (B npOL\eHTax) 3aHRTocTb 4365034,0 4096848,0 3564037.0 31q.900,O -6,1 -13,0 -12,0 CenbcKoe H neCHoe X03RHCTSO 814246,0 757527,0 696454,0 558900,0 -7,0 -8.1 -19,8 llpoMblwneHHocTb 2032306,0 1 864 013,0 1 510 133,0 1288300,0 -8,3 -19,0 -14,0 YCJlyrn 1518482,0 1 475305,0 1 357450,0 1 265700,0 -2,8 -8,0 -6,8 IiHAeKc lloTpe6HTeJlbCKHX L\eH (s cpeAHe~ 3a rnA, 101,1 123,8 438,5 179,4 YoX) YposeHb 6e3pa6oTHL\bl (Ha KOHeL\ rOAa, YoY.) 0,0 1,7 11,1 15,3 CqeTa ,QeHe)l{FlOH CTaTHCTlfKlf ,[leHeHrun'op BBU. 4. nJI'I,I,NpttTUwr:LIO ,II,IIIDDoilO. HCTo.n: Cr4TJlCTneccuA e.aci'o.D'.an .993 r' l HCY; ..SonrlpcuJI 'KOSOlllOlXa • 1992 r ... HCY, ..rQAOIlOA oneT H~OBam.Horo SaBu &M:rapBB 3& 1992 r.lo. RBI; l l l o _ f I ISlIOIUl00eu. 1I&IlIl000000Wloro )'IIp&IIl.""" TIl,..... BO.flZapUR 249 PHCYUOK 5-1. BOJIrapmr. 3apa6oTHaSl nJIaTa H HHqJJlSlUHSl ueH. 150 ·50~rr~~~rr~~-rrr~~-rrr~~rrr ...1991 MIl c.rr. ".1992 MIl c.rr. JlML1teS MUi MapT 1II-...HQIIII5p. M.pT III... HOIIfipI. MapT M~C.s:u; • 3apIDIaTa ~ D;eJD)! PHCYHOK 5-2. BOJIra:PHSl, HH,ueKC peaJIbHOH 3apa6oTHoH nJIaTbl: ,ueKa6pb 1990 r.-HIOHb 1993 r. (e)l(eMeCSl"lHble ,uaHHble) 100 """,...... -,. ........ ...,... .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ......, ... _ GInIpo ......, . - ,.".,. ~..,.. CIinII1ItJ> ......, . - Mec.llI( 250 Be3p'a6omul.Ia, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa Ta6J1Hya 5-2. BOJlrapHH: BHelllHHH TOprOBJlH CmamoR 19902. 19912. 19922. a Kypc 06MeHa (JleB.lnOJlll.- 0,786 16,713 23,335 ClIlA) BHewHRR mop2061lR 3KcnopT (MllH lleBoB) 10559,5 57368,3 81644,8 POCT B peallbHoM Bblpa- -74,5 1,9 :>KeHHH (101o) CTpaHbl BOCTO'lHOH EBPO- 80,2 57,7 41,9 nbl (101o) EC (101o) 5,0 15,7 30,8 HMnopT (MJlH JIeBoB) 10314,9 45 132,4 80595,7 POCT B peaJIbHOM Bblpa- -79,4 27,9 :>KeHHH (101o) CTpaHbl BOCTO'lHOH EBpO- 75,9 49,1 37,2 nbl (101o) EC (101o) 9,6 20,7 32,6 ToproBblH 6allaHc (MJIH JIe- 244,6 12235,9 1049,1 BOB) CTpaHbl BOCTO'lHOH EBPO- 642,0 11 239.9 4208,5 nbl EC -467,9 -341,3 -1073,3 )JOIlR 3Kcnopma 6 o6UJux nocmynlleHuRX npeonpuR- muu 06"eM npOna:>K (%%) 26,6" 24,4& TIpoMbIllllleHHocTb (1o%) 17,0· 19,9& a. TIpeJI.BapHTeJlbHhle JJ,aHlfble. MCTOoH;D; onn:aTLI TPY~ B Te4eHHe BTOPOH nOJIOBHHbI rOll,a cxeMa paC4eTa npell,eJIbHbIX pa3MepOB 3apa6OTHoH nJIaTbI 6blJIa H3MeHeHa H BMeCTO 100% ex post HHll,eKcaYHH yeH 6blJI BBell,eH 3apaHee YCTaHaBJIHBaeMbIH HOMHHaJIbHbIH npell,eJI, oCHoBaHHbIH Ha npOeKTHpOBKax ypOBH.fI HHCPJI.fIgHH. TIocKOJIbKY .paKTH4ecKHH ypoBeHb .HHCPJI.fIYHH OKa3aJICH HH:lICe npoeKTHpoBOK, TaKaH CHCTeMa OCTaSHJIa HeKoTopbIH npocTop ll,JIH pOCTa peaJIbHOH 3apa6oTHOH nJIaTbl. L{a:llCe C Y4eTOM 3Toro, peaJIbHaH 3apa6oTHaH nJIaTa S 1992 r. S geJIOM OCTaSaJIaCb nOCTO.flHHOH, Ha ypOBHe 4YTb SbIwe 70% ypOBHH 1990 r. 3Ta cpell,H.fIH gHcppa cKpblsaeT ll,OBOJIbHO 260 Ee3pa6omU14a, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyaa 3Ha"IHTeJlbHble OTpaCJleBble pa3JlH"fHH (CM. HH)I(e). B 1992 r. KBapTaJlbHaH ,D.HHaMHKa HOMHHaJlbHOH 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl HMeJla O"feHb npHMe"faTenbHYIO oc06eHHocTb; OHa pe3KO B03paCTaJla B KOH!,!e KBapTaJla, "fTO OTpa)l(anO e>KeKBapTanbHble KoppeKTHpOBKH npe,D.enOB paCXO,D.OB Ha onnaTY TpY,D.a B COOTBeTCTBHH C HHcpJlH!,!HeH. BpeMH nOBblWeHI1H 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbI, a TaK>Ke BpeMH ysonbHeHHH, KOTopble TaK)I(e npOI1CXO,D.I1JlH B KOH!,!e Ka>K,D.orO KBapTana. BH,D.I1MO 03Ha"faIOT, "fTO B TO BpeMH HaJlOr Ha npeBblweHHe JlI1MHTa paCXO,D.OB Ha OnJlaTY TpY,D.a HMen OCHOBHoe ::ma"feHHe ,D.JlH MOMeHTa npHHHTI1H peWeHI1H npe,D.npWITI1HMI1. PaCCMaTpl1BaH C06blTI1H 3a 60Jlee ,D.JlI1TeJlbHbIH npOMe)l(YTOK BpeMeHI1, HeJlb3H C YBepeHHOCTblO CKa3aTb, "fTO nOnl1THKa ,D.OXO,D.OB 6blJla 3cpcpeKTHBHblM orpaHI1"feHl1eM Ha pOCT OnJlaTbl TpY,D.a, He TOJlbKO nOTOMY, "fTO caMa no ce6e nonHTHKa 6blJla ,D.OBOJlbHO cna60H (oc06eHHO B 1992 r.). HO H nOToMY, "fTO B Tex CJlY4aHX, KOr,D.a npe,D.npHHTHe ,D.On)l(HO 6blno ynnaTHTb HaJlOr Ha npeBblweHHe JlI1MHTa paCXO,D.OB Ha onnaTY TPY,D.a, nHwb ManaH HX 4aCTb (27% B 1992 r., 33% B 1993 r.) ero ,D.eHCTBHTeJlbHO ynnaTI1Jla. OCHOBHble BbIBO,D.bI. KOTopbIe, nO-BI1,D.HMOMY, MO:lKHO cllenaTb TaKOBbl: • B Te4eHHe nepsoH nonOBHHbI 1991 r. 3apa6oTHaH nJlaTa C,D.ep)l(HBanaCb B COOTBeTCTBHI1 C nonHTHKoH ,D.OXO,D.OB. HO pewalOl,!!YIO ponb B 3TOM Hrpano coxpaHe- HHe MexaHH3Ma !,!eHTpaJlH30BaHHoH TapHcpHoH CHCTe- Mbl, a He Hanor Ha npeBblweHHe JlHMHTa paCXO,D.OB Ha onnaTY TpY,D.a. • OTMeHa !,!eHTpanH30BaHHOH TapHcpHOH CHCTeMbl BO BTOpOH nOnOSI1He 1991 r. npHBena K cHnbHoMY POCTY HOMHHanbHoH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl 11 K KOH!,!Y rO,D.a 60nbwaH 4aCTb COKpal,!!eHHH peanbHoH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl 6blJla YCTpaHeHa (CM. PHCYHOK 5-2). Cpe,D.HHH ypoBeHb HOMHHanbHOH 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl B 4eTsepToM KBapTane 6blJl 3Ha4HTenbHO Sblwe npe,D.Yc- MOTpeHHoro nonHTHKOH ,D.OXO,D.OB. • B 1992 r. HHcpnH!,!HH 6blna OTHOCHTeJlbHO cTa6HnbHa, BepoHTHo B pe3ynbTaTe ,D.eHCTBHH Hanora Ha npeBbl- rneHHe nHMHTa paCXo,D.OB Ha onnaTY TpY,D.a. ,[lononHH- TeJlbHblM cpaKTopOM Mor 6blTb HH3KI1H cnpoc Ha pblHKe BomapUR 261 TpYAa. B KaKOH CTeneHH OH BnH.Rn Ha ypOBeHb OnnaTbl TpYAa, HeRCHO. nOBeAeHHe HOMHHanbHOH ::mpa60THOH nnaTbl no OTHOlIleHHIO K nHMHTaM onnaTbl TPYAa AO KOHUa 1992 r. nOKa3aHO Ha PHcYHKe 5-4. aKTH'IeCKH ynna'leHHaH CYMMa paCXOAOB Ha onnaTY TpYAa, npeBbiWalOLQaH HopMaTHBHblH npeAen, YCTaHoBneHHblH AnR KalK,AON npeAnpHRTHR. B nepBoH a3e nonHTHKH AOXOAOB (c eBpanH no HIORb 1991 r.). HopMaTHBHblH npeAen 3aTpaT Ha onnaTY TpYAa onpeAenRncR no 0pMyne: WB.....(91:s) '" WB(90:s) x (W(90:4) I W(90:s». rAe WB(90:s) - OHA :Japa60THoii nnaTbi npeAnpHRTHH B KBapTane s 1990 r.; W(90:s) - cpeAHeMecH'IHaR :Japa6oTHaR nnaTa B KBapTane S 1990 r. floCKonbKYOTHoweHHe wB(90:s)/W(90;s) eCTh npocTo '1HCno 3aRHTblX Ha npeAnpHRTHH B KBapTane s 1990 r., 0pMyna onpeAenHna npeAeJI pacxoAoB Ha onnaTY TpYAa npeAnpHflTHR paBRblM npOH:JBeAeRHIO '1HCna :JaRRTbiX Ha HeM pa60THHKOB B COOTBeTCTBYIOLQHH KBapTan 1990 r. Ha cpeAHlO1O :Japa6oTH)'IO nnaTY ynna'leHHYIO B '1eTBepTOM KBapTane 3TOro roAa. TaKHM o6pa30M, AJIH npeAnpHflTHR C nOCTOHHHblM '1HCnOM :JaHHThIX. npeAen pacxoAoB Ha onnaTY TpYAa 6b1n nonpocTY paBeH 3KTH'IecKHM P3CXOA3M Ha onnaTY TpYAa B '1eTBepTOM KB3pTane 1990 r. H eAHHCTBeHHblM cnoc060M nOBblweHHR :Japa6oTHoH nn3TbI OCTaBanHCb KOMneHCal.\HORHble BhlOn3TbI B CBR:JH C HHnHl.\HeH. BomapUR 263 IlpeAnpHIiTHIi. 'lHCneHHOCTb :JaHIITbiX Ha KOTOPblX COKpaTHnaCb B pe:JYJlbTaTe BblXOAa pa60THHKOB Ha neHCHIO HJlH YBOJlbHeHHH no c06CTBeHHOMY It(enaHHIO MOrJlH nOBbiwaTb cpeAHlO1O :Japa60THYIO nnaTY. npH YCJlOBHH, 'ITO nponopl.\HOHaJlbHblH pOCT cpej:(Heii :Japa6OTHOH no OTHoweHHIO K '1eTBepTOMY KBapTaJlY 1990 r. He npeBbiwan npOnopl.\HOHaJlbHoro COKpa~eHHII :JaHIiTOCTH no OTHoweHHIO K COOTBeTCTBYIO~eMY KBapTany npeAblAy~ero roAa. OAHaKO. TaM. rAe oc~eCTBnllnOCb HaCHJlbCTBeHHoe COKpa~eHHe wTaToB, pacxoAbi Ha onnaTY TpYAa :Ja npeAbIAY~HH roA nepepaC'IHTblBaJlHCb C TeM. '1T06b1 YCTpaHHTb H:J 6a:JbI :JaHl1TOCTH '1HCneHHOCTb cOKpa~eHHblx WTaTOB. TaKHM 06pa:JOM. npeAnpHl1THe. BblcB060lt(AalO~ee pa60THHKOB :Ja C'IeT cOKpa~eHHII wTaTOB He MOrJlO YBeml'lHBaTb cpeAHeH :Japa60THOH nJlaTbi. Bo BTOPOH cjJa:le nonHTHKH B cjJ0PMYJlY 6b1no BHeceHO HeCKonbKO II:JMeHeHHH. nO:JBOnl1lO~HX BKJ1IO'IHTb IIBlloe 10m-:-e HHAeKcllpoBaHHe poCTa PO:JIIII'IHblX l.\eH II Y'IHTblBaTb POCT npoH:JBOAIITeJlbHOCTH. ~opMyna CTana cneAYIO~eH: WB....(I:S) • WB(t:s-1) x (W(I:s-1) / W(1-1:s» x (P(I:S) / p(t:s-1)} x (R(I:S) / R(t:s-1)}. rAe p(t:s) - III1AeKC PO:JHH'IHbIX l.\eH B KBapTane S roAa r. R(I:S) - 06'beM npoH:JBoACTBa Ha OAHOro pa60'lero (npolI:JBoAHTenbHocTb) npeAnpHl1TlIl1 B KBapTane S roAa I. Ilpli 3TOH, HOBOH CIiCTeMe. HopMaTIIBHblM npeAenoM pacxoAoB Ha OnJlaTY TPYAa CTano npolI:JBeAeHlle '1l1cna :Jalll1TblX B TOM It(e KBapTane npeAblAy~ero roAa H cpeAHeii :Japa60THOH nJlaTbi. BblnJla'leHHOH B npeAblA~eM KBapTaJle. 110 Tenepb aBTOMaTII'IeCKH Y'IIITbiBanaCb IIHcjJmll.\lIl1 II POCT npOH:JBOAIiTenbHOCTIi B Te'leHlle KBapTana. Ha npaKTIIKe. npeAnplll1TlIl1 6b1nll BblHYlIa3a, Ha'iaBWaHCH B 1993 r., npe~ycMaTpHBana ~Ba H3MeHeHHH. Bo-nepBblx, KOppeKTHpOBKa Ha HH!I>nHJ.:IHIO Tenepb CTana OCHOBaHa Ha '1aCTH'IHOii KOMneHCaJ.:lHH npownoii HH!I>nHJ.:IHH, BMeCTO 100Y.-ii KOMneHCaJ.:lHH TeKyIJ.:leii (!I>aKTH'IeCKOH HnH np0rH03HpyeMoii) HH!I>nHJ.:IHH. \.{aCTH'IHaH KOMneHCaJ.:lHli paCC'IHTblBanacb Ha OCHOBe YBenH'IeHHA J.:IeH 3a npe~weCTBYIOutHe 12 MecAJ.:IeB H HMena !l>0PMY nonHoH KOppeKTHpOBKH 3a nepBble 9 MeCRJ.:IeB.!!!!.!!:!£ 85Y. pOCTa J.:IeH 3a nocne~HHe 3 MeCAJ.:Ia ro~a. BO-BTOPblX. KOppeKTHpOBKa Ha npoH3Bo~HTenbHocTb 6b1na cOKpauteHa co 100r. ~o 3Or. pOCTa (HnH COKpauteHHSI) 06'heMa npoHaBO~CTBa Ha o~HOro pa60THHKa. CTaBKH Hanora Ha npeBblweHHe npe~ena pacxo~oB Ha onnaTY Tpy~a B 1993 r. 6blnH BnepBble YBenH'IeHbI. CTaBKH Hanora (B 0p0J.:leHTax) 6blnH cne~ylOutHMH: CTaBKa Hanora IlpeBblweHHe !l>eBpanb- HlOnb HlOnb liHBapb npej:\ena pacxo~oB HIOHb 1991 r.- 1992 r.- 1993 r.- Ha oonaTY Tpy~a 1991 r. HIOHb ~eKa6pb ~eKa6pb 1992 r. 1992 r. 1993 r. ~o 1 100 0 0 0 1-2 200 50 0 0 2-3 400 100 0 50 3-4 800 200 50 200 4 -.5 800 400 100 600 5-6 800 400 200 800 CBblwe 6 800 400 400 800 B03HHKHOBeHHe pbIHKa TpYlla 3apa6omHaR n.llama 3Ha4HTeJIbHO YBeJIH4HBllla.flC.fI nOCJIe pe¢opM ,QHCnepCH.fI OTHOCHTeJIb- HOH 3apa6OTHOH nJIaTbI no OTpaCJI.fIM Haxo,QHTC.fI B pe3KOM KOHTp3cre C cHTya!.!HeH. CYlllecrBoB3BllleH npH CO!.!HaJIH3Me. ,[.(a)Ke ,[to BBe,QeHH.fI Bo.mapUR 265 ,neueHTpaJlH30BaHHOH CHCTeMbl KOJlJleKTHBHblX ,nOrOBOpOB BO BTOPOH nOJlOBHHe 1991 r. Ha6mo,naJlHCb ,nOBOJlbHO CHJlbHble H3MeHeHH.fI OTHOCHTeJlbHOH 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl. C WHPOKHM pacnpoCTpaHeHHeM ,neueHTpanH30BaHHoH CHCTeMbl YCTaHOBJleHHfI pa3Mepa OnJlaTbl Tpy,na, OTHOCHTeJlbHa.fl 3apa60THafi nJlaTa CTaJla el!!e 60Jlee HepaBHoMepHoH. K03apa6o'llloi JIlIa.. 1,2 0,9 1,9 0,5 0,3 0,0 OKTa I: nOJl)"lCIUlJO 19,3 ·1,2 18,1 4,6 4,9 0.6 Or opo,"""" 12.9 ·2.1 11,1 4,5 3.6 .0.4 lJHCThle C'ata J: rtO.IIY'ICHBJO ~9 -12.4 ·22,2 ~.6 ·5.4 0,8 npll&ut. + 1JIK'nIe e'UTa J: DOJIY"fCKIUO 0,9 -8,6 ·22,6 ~,9 ·12.8 -1.2 P...,o,JI,W I!a ODJla..." TJIY.... + BCC' + 84'5' 10.6 11,2 6,6 8.4 9.9 10,9 fiOC'f)'DJlIt.u OT npo,ll,Ul ()I HaJI. I:OCIICHHoro B&1IOl'a) 114,9 88,6 46,0 49,6 57.0 69.6 C ........... ",pa6o'!IIu Mara .. lt8apran (11."".) 1165,0 4191,4 5146,2 61SD,9 7135,1 • 112.5 YIOJIWIClIU DO c:06cnaeJmON)' Ze.ttaHBIO (NC.) 344,9 78,. 61,8 62.8 56,8 56,5 Cocpa~cnEJe WTI,.QIII (ThEe.) 194,3 78,L__ 21,1 __ 21,3 18,3 17,7 a. qS:CThJe ¢,lDIAIIcome pacr.o..".. OTP6J(aJOT IMHMOOTBOIIlUU C 6as:I:OKKoB CBcteMOi. 6. BCC a ..mocw Ba oo~anW!oe CTPAXOB8BB.. CpeJI,'KU CTUU • 1991 r. Nl1 rocyAipeTBeBHOC'O oc:a:ropa """".lIJWIa 38". a. 84>& •• .,.ocw. • <\>OB.lI &.pa60THtJ;W. 268 Be3paOomUl.Ja, nepecmpoil1w 3KOHOMUKU U Pb/HOK mpyaa Ta6J1Hua 5-5. BOJlrapml: K03CP4mYHeHTbi BapHayHH rO,llOBbIX HH,lleKCOB no 18 OTpaCJI.fIM npOMblWJleHHOCTH (8 np01.JeHmax) CTllTbR 1990 r. 1991 r. 1992 r. 06,.eM npo1!3BO)lCTBa B peanbllOM BI>.palKeHHH 14,3 18,4 16,2 ileRbl npoHlBOlf.HT"lIeli 1.4 42,8 15.1 3awrrOCT. 8,0 9,1 11.6 npOB3BO.1tHTeJlbHOCTIa 12,9 11,0 10.7 YpoBeah OM.",. rpYAa 5,7 10,4 10,9 Pe8JILBU 3apa60nrU' nn3T3 B neHax npOH3BO.D,HTeJTeil 11.0 39,5 20.0 OmOCHTeJU"HU lapa60THU' nnaTS 21,5 26.6 36,7 Jl,0Jtl' paCIO.ll.OB Ba OMSTy Tp¥)J.8. B ol5'Lewe npoHSBO,1.f,CTBa" 16,0 30,9 20,4 8. rO,tJ.OSOH HH,Jl.ex.c 01ll0WeHHlf C}"MMhl paCXOll,OB Ha on.1aTy TPYAA It 06'LtMY npOH'l80,llCTB3, tfacmHblu ceKmop HecMoTp.fI Ha OTcyrcTBHe B BOJlrapHH cpOpMaJlbHOH npOrpaMMbl npHBaTH3aYHH, pOCT '4aCTHOrO CeKTOpa 6blJl O'4eHb 3aMeTHOH OC06eH- HOCTblO npoyecca pecpopM. HOBbie '4aCTHble npe,llnpH.fITH.fI B03HHKaJlH BO Bcex OTpaCJI.fIX 3KOHOMHKH, HO oc06eHHO 6YPHO 3TOT npoyecc weJl B ccpepax, pa3BHTHlO KOTOPblX Y,lleJl.fIJlOCb He,llOCTaTO'4HO BHHMaHH.fI npH cOYHaJlHCTH'4eCKOH cHCTeMe, TaKHX KaK P03HH'4Ha.fI TOprOBJl.fI H yCJlyrn. MHorne H3 3THX BH,llOB ,lle.fITeJlbHOCTH He Y'4HTblBaJlHCb ocpHYHaJlbHOH CTaTHCTHKOH, n03TOMY ,llaHHbIX 0 pa3BHTHH '-IaCTHOro ceKTopa HeMHoro. VIcKJlIO'4eHHeM .fIBJl.fIeTC.fI nepenHCb ,lleKa6p.fI 1992 r., KOTOpa.fI cO,llep)l(aJla Bonpoc, .fIBJl.fIeTC.fI pa60TO,llaTeJlb '4aCTHbIM HJlH rocY,llapCTBeHHblM npe,llnpH.fITHeM. COrJlaCHO ,llaHHbIM nepenHcH Ha MOMeHTee npOBe,lleHH.fI OKOJlO 14% 3aH.fITbIX pa60TaJlH B '4aCTHOM ceKTope, KOTOPblH no oyeHKaM npOH3BO,llHT 15,6% BBn CTpaHbl. B Ka'4eCTBe cocTaBHoH '4aCTH ,llaHHOrO npoeKTa, B .fIHBape 1993 r. Mbl npOBeJlH BbI60p0'4HOe 06CJ1e,llOBaHHe 200 '4aCTHbIX npe,llnpH.fITHH B ,llByX KpynHeHwHx rop0,llax BOJ1rapHH (COcpHH H 2 nJ10B,llHBe). 06CJle,llOBaHHe nO,llTBep,llHJ10 npe,llnOJlO)l(eHHe, '4TO 2 Bbl60p npe,llnpH.fITHH OCHOBbIBaJ1C.fI Ha 60J1ee paHHHX KOMMep'4eCKHX o6CJle,llOBaHH.fIX '4aCTHOro ceKTopa H Bbl60pKa B yeJlOM 6blJla npe,llCTaBHTeJ1bHa B TOM, '4TO KaCaeTC.fI THna npe,llnpH.fITHH, CPYHKYHOHHPYIOWHX B HacTOHwee BpeM.fI B '4aCTHOM ceKTope, O,llHaKO BO.llZapUR 269 '-IaCTHblH CeKTOp npHBJ1eKaeT HaH6oJ1ee KBaJ1H<.fmYHpOBaHHYIO pa6o'-lYlO CHJ1y. He MeHee 80,1% ynpaBJ1f1lOlllHX, a TaK)f(e 25% pa6oTHHKOB HMeJ1H YHHBepC~fTeTCKHH .[tHnJ10M, a ellle 37% pa6oTHHKOB HMeJ1H npocpeccHo- HaJ1bHOe o6pa30BaHHe. 3TO COBna.[taeT C BbIBo.[taMH o6CJ1e.[toBaHHfI rocY.[tapCTBeHHblx npe.[tnpHflTHH 1992 r., KOTopoe OTpa3HJ10 60J1bWOe He.[tOBOJ1bCTBO PYKoBo.[tCTBa rocy.[tapcTBeHHblx npe.[tnpHflTHH OTCYT- CTBHeM npocpeccHOHaJ10B C xopoweH KBaJ1HcpHKaYHeH. COBepweHHo O'-leBH.[tHO, '-ITO '-IaCTHblH ceKTOp HaHHMaJ1 B OCHOBHOM HaH60J1ee KBaJ1HcpHYHpOBaHHbIX pa60THHKOB H pa60THHKOB C HaHJ1Y'-lwHM 06pa30BaHHeM. Ta6J1Hua 5-6. DOJ1rapHfI: K03CPCPHYHeHTbi KOppeJ1f1YHH Me~yTeMnaMH pOCTa no BoceMHa.[tyaTH OTpaCJ1f1M npOMbIWJ1eHHOCTH CT8Tb.i 3aHITOCTb 06"... npOll3""",' UCHLI npOln~ Cpe.ll,llJlll 0.1 - . • 0..01 0.04 0.015 0.01 0.01 0.0. 0.0. 0.1 •.11 Ypoll6Blao CSe3pa6cmm;r..I DonbWHHCTBO npennpl1RTHH, OXBa4eHHbiX 06cnenOBaHHeM, 6blnH nOBonbHO ManeHbKHMH; cpenHee 4Hcno 3aHRTbiX Ha HI1X COCTaBnRno neCRTb 4enOBeK. OnHaKO OHI1 6b[CTPO pocnH - C RHBapR 1992 r. no RHBapb 1993 r. cpenHee npennpHRTHe YBenH4Hno 411C.110 3aHRTbiX Ha 80%. npl1Me4aTenbHo TaK)!(e, 4TO nonaBmllOl!!ee 60nbwHHCTBO KaK ynpaBnRlOl,I!l1X (72%), TaK H pa604Hx npe)!(Jle pa6OTano Ha rocynap- CTBeHHblX npennpHRTHRX. OTHOCHTenbHO HeMHorne npe)!(Jle 6blnl1 6e3pa60THblMH (KpOMe Taro, HeKOTopble H3 3apernCTpHposaHHbiX B 50/llapUR 271 Ka4eCTBe 6e3pa60THblX, MOrJ1H pa60TaTb Ha 4aCTHblX npe):tnpHflTHflX). Ha Bonpoc 0 cnoc06ax nOHCKa pa60THHKOB npe):tnpHflTHfI OTBeTHJ1H, !.{TO B OCHOBHOM OHH nOJ1araJOTCfI Ha J1H4Hble KOHTaKTbl H peKOMeH):ta- UHH H J1HWb nflTb npe):tnpHflTHH OTBeTHJ10, 4TO OHH nO):t6HpaJOT pa60THHKOB 4epe3 6JOpo no Tpy):tOyCTpOHCTBy. ,[{onOJ1HHTeJ1bHO 6blJ10 06HapY:lKeHO, l.{TO 60J1bWafll.{aCTb J1JO):teH npe):tnOl.{HTaeT pa60TaTb B rocy):tapCTBeHHOM, a He B l.{aCTHOM ceKTope. Pe3YJ1bTaTbl nepenHCH ):teKa6pfl 1992 r. rOBopflT 0 TOM, l.{TO l.{YTb 60J1ee 50% 6e3pa60THblX npe):tnOl.{J1H 6bl pa60ry Ha rocy):tapcTBeHHoM npe):tnpHflTHH no cpaBHeHHJO co Bcero J1HWb 15%, KOTopble npe):tnOl.{J1H 6bl OTKPblTb CBoe ):teJ10 HJ1H HaHTH pa60TY Ha l.{aCTHOM npe):tnpHflTHH (oCTaJ1bHble 35% pecnoH):teHToB He Bblpa3HJ1H flBHoro npe):tnOl.{TeHHfI). Cpe):tH 6ropa60THblX C BblCOKHM ypOBHeM 06pa30BaHHJ'I npe):tnOl.{TeHHe B n0J1b3Y rOCY):tapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa 6blJ10 elJ!e 60J1bWHM, ):tJ1J'1 3TOH rpynnbl COOTBeTCTBYJOIJ!He nOKa3aTeJ1H 6blJ1H 60% npoTHB 8%. 3TH BbIBO):tbl COOTBeTCTBYJOT pe3YJ1bTaTaM 60J1ee paHHero 06CJ1e):tOBaHHJ'I, npOBe):teHHoro HaUHOHaJ1bHbIM MHCTHTYTOM HCCJ1e):tOBaHHH np06J1eM M0J10):te:lKH B ):teKa6pe 1991 r., KOTopoe 06HapY:lKHJ10 CHJ1bHOe npe):tno- l.{TeHHe cpe):tH 6e3pa60THb1X, oc06eHHo nO:lKHJ1bIX H M0J10):te:lKH, BepHYTbCJ'I Ha pa60TY B rocY):tapcTBeHHblH ceKTOp. Bce BbIWeH3J10:lKeH- Hoe ):taeT OCHOBaHHJ'I ):tJ1f1 HeKOTopblX COMHeHHH B TOM, l.{TO 6e3pa60TH- ua He06xo):tHMa (HJ1H ):ta:lKe n0J1e3Ha) ):tJ1J'1 nOBblweHHfI M06HJ1bHOCTH Tpy):ta. Yl.{HTbIBaJ'l ):tOMHHHpYJOIJ!He n03HUHH npOcPCOJ030B B rocy):tap- CTBeHHOM ceKTope, ):tOCTaTOl.{HO HeO:lKH):taHHO 6blJ10 06HapY:lKHTb HX nOl.{TH nOJ1HOe OTCYTCTBHeB l.{aCTHOM ceKTope. TOJ1bKO Ha weCTH (3%) npe):tnpHflTHflX ):teHcTBOBaJ1H npocPcoJ03bl (XOTJ'I, OK0J10 l.{eTBepTH BJ1a):teJ1bueB J'lBJ1J'1JOTCfll.{J1eHaMH ):teJ10BbIX accoUHaUHH). B OTCYTCTBHH npocPcoJ030B npe):tnpHflTHflM HH4TO He MeWaJ10 YBOJ1bHflTb pa60THHKOB no HX YCMOTpeHHJO, H B Tel.{eHHe 1992 r. no KpaHHeH Mepe n0J10BHHa H3 HHX YBOJ1HJ1a o):tHoro HJ111 HeCKOJ1bKHX pa60THHKOB. flpHl.{HHaMH YBOJ1bHeHHH CJ1Y:lKHJ1H HH3Kafl OT):tal.{a HJ1H HH3KaJ'l ):tHCUHnJ1HHa; npHMe4aTeJ1bHO, l.{TO B nepHo):t r J1y60Koro cna):ta npoH3Bo):tcTBa npaKTH4eCKH HH O):tHO npe):tnpl1f1Tl1e He nOC4HTaJ10 He06xo):tHMb1M YBOJ1HTb pa60THHKOB H3-3a COKpalJ!eHHJ'I cnpoca. Ha BonpOCbl, KacaJOIJ!HeCfI YPOBHfI OnJ1aTbl Tpy):ta H ):tpyrnx cPHHaHCOBblX nepeMeHHblX OTBeTOB 6blJ10 MeHbwe, a l.{aCTb nOJ1Yl.{eHHbIX OTBeTOB,BepOJ'lTHo,He):tOCTOBepHa.O):tHaKo,BH):tHMo,BnOJ1He):tonyCTH- MO 06061J!eHHe, 4TO l.{aCTHble npe):tnpHflTHJ'I nJ1aTJ'lT 60J1ee BblCOKYJO 3apa60THYJO nJ1aTY, HO 31'0 OT4aCTH KOMneHcHpyeTcfI 60J1ee HH3KHMH npeMHflMH H 60J1ee orpaHI1'·leHHblM pacnpOCTpaHeHHeM He):teHe:lKHbIX 272 Be3pa6omuqa, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U pbl.HOK mpyoa noc06HH. CKJIa,l:lbIBaeTCH Cne,l:lYIOij!ee 06ij!ee Bne4aTneHHe: arpeCCHBHO pa3BHBalOlUHHCH 4aCTHblH CelITOp, B KOTOPOM npe06na.QalOT Manble, XOTH H 6blCTPO paCTYlUHe npe,l:lnpHHTHH, rOTOBble nnaTHTb ,I:lOCTOHHYJO 3apa60THYJO nnaTY 3a COOTBeTCTBYJOij!YJO KBanHcPHKaUHIO, HO He npe,l:lnaralOlUHe CBOHM pa60THHKaM OC060H 3aij!Hij!eHHOCTH HX pa604HX MeCT, He,l:leHe)l{HblX noc06HH HnH npH3HaHHH npocPCOlO30B. C T04KH 3peHHH pblHKa TpY,I:la Ha nepeXO,l:lHOM 3Tane, npHMe4aTenbHblM cPaKTOM HBJ1HeTCH TO, 4TO 3TH npe,l:lnpHHTHH He HJMYT pa604YIO cHny Cpe,l:lH 6e3pa6OTHblX H, 4TO 6e3pa60THble, B CBOIO 04epe,l:lb, He H3bHBnHIOT )l{enaHHH pa60TaTb Ha 3THX npe,l:lnpHHTHHX. Ee3pa6oTHua Mbl Y)I{e OTMe4anH 04eHb 6blCTpoe COKpaij!eHHe 3aHHTOCTH B rocY,I:lap- CTBeHHOM ceKTope H nocne,l:lOBaBWHH pOCT 4Hcna 3aperHCTpHpOBaHHblX 6e3pa60THb1X. HaCTOHij!HH pa3,1:len nOCBHij!eH 60nee nO,l:lp06HOMY paCCMOTpeHHIO cY,I:lb6bl 6e3pa60THblX H, B 4aCTHOCTH. HX nepcneKTHB HaHTH pa60TY. K CO)l{aneHHlO, OCHOBHOH HCT04HHK CTaTHCTH4eCKHX ,I:laHHbIX 0 6e3pa60THue B 50nrapHH - pernCTpbl 6e3pa60THblX 61Opo no TpY,I:l0YCTPOHCTBY - He TonbKO He ,I:laeT nonHblX ,I:laHHbIX, HO TaK)I{e H cepbe3HO HCKa)l{aeT KapTHHY nOTOKOB H npO,l:lOn)l{HTenbHOCTH 6e3pa60- THUbl. B nOCne,l:lHee BpeMH ,I:lOnOnHHTenbHaH HHcPopMaMHH 0 6e3pa60TH- ue 6blna nonY4eHa H3 MaTepHanOB nepenHCH .QeKa6pH 1992 r. H 06Cne,l:loBaHHH pa604eH CHnbl oceHH 1993 r. CY,I:lH no CTaTHCTHKe 0 3apernCTpHpoBaHHblx 6e3pa60THblX ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THMbl B 50nrapHH O,l:lHH H3 caMblX BblCOKHX cpe.QH Bcex CTpaH, nepe)l{HBalOij!Hx nepexO,l:lHblH nepHO,l:l. KaK ,I:laHHble nepenHcH. TaK H ,I:laHHble 06Cne,l:lOBaHHH pa604eH CHnbl (OPC), B KOTOPblX ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THMbl H3MepHncH B 60nbweM COOTBeTCTBHH C Me)l{,l:lYHapO,l:lHbIM cTaH,I:lapTH30BaHHbIM onpe,l:leneHHeM, ,I:lalOT 60nee BblCOKHe nOKa3aTenH 6e3pa60THUbl. a B cnY4ae OPC - CYij!eCTBeHHO 60nee BbICOKHe, 4eM ,I:laHHble 0 3apernCTpHpOBaHHblX 6e3pa60THb1X. TaK, ,I:laHHble nepenHCH ,I:lalOT ypOBeHb 6e3pa6OTHMbl B 17,9% Ha ,I:leKa6pb 1992 r. no cpaBHeHHIO C 15,6% no ,I:laHHbIM pernCTpaMHH. CornaCHO OPC, ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THMbl B 50nrapHH oceHblO 1993 r. cOCTaBnHn21,4%; ,I:l<;lHHble 0 perncTpaMHH ,I:lalOT MHcPPY 15,7% ,I:lnH Toro :lKe nepHO,l:la. C T04KH 3peHHH 3KOHOMH4eCKoro nepexo,l:la O,l:lHHaKoBYIO 3Ha4HMOCTb HMelOT H MacwTa6bl nOTOKa B COCTaB 6e3pa60THblX H MacwTa6bl Bbl6blTHH H3 Hero, a TaK:lKe npO,l:lOn)l{HTenbHOCTb nepHO,l:la 273 6e3pa60TH!,!bl. B ;::taHHOM c11yqae CTaTHCTHKa 0 nOTOKaX B COCTaB H H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THbiX OCHOBaHa Ha pernCTpa!,!HOHHbIX ;::taHHbIX, ny611HKoBaBWHXC.H HaqHHa.H C Haqa11a 1992 r., HO OHH cepbe3Ho HCKa)f(aIOT KapTHHY. OCHOBHYIO qaCTb BbI6bITH.H H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60T- Hbix COCTaB11.H11H 11H!,!a BblqepKHYTble H3 pernCTpoB 6e3pa6OTHbix no npHqHHe He.HBKH B 61Opo no TPy;::tOYCTPOHCTBY (B OCHOBHOM nOToMY, qTO OHH HCqepna11H npaBo Ha n011yqeHHe nOC06H.H no 6e3pa60THue). TaKHM 06pa30M, OCHOBHblM 311eMeHTOM BbI6bITH.H, 6bl11 nepexo;::t H3 COCTaBa 3apernCTpHpoBaHHbix 6e3pa60THbiX B KaTeropHIO He3apernc- TpHpoBaHHblx, a He Bbl6blTHe Ha pa60TY H11H H3 COCTaBa pa60qeH CH11bl. ilomoKU 6 cocma6 6e3pa6omHblX C cPeBpa11.H 1992 r. nO.HBH11HCb ;::taHHble 0 qHC11eHHOCTH, B03paCTe, KBa11HcPHKa!,!HH, OTpac11H nOC11e;::tHero MeCTa pa60Tbi H npaBe Ha n011Y4eHH.H nOC06H11 BHOBb 3apernCTpHpoBaHHbix 6e3pa6oTHblX. CTPYKTypa nOTOKa B COCTaB 6e3pa6oTHbiX no n011Y, B03paCTY H YPOBHIO KBa11HcPHKa!,!HH OTpa)f(aeT CTPYKTYPY COCTaBa 6e3pa6OTHblx, cpe;::tH KOTOPblX npHMepHo n0110BHHY 3aHHMa11H )f(eHIJJHHbl, OK0110 n0110BHHbl M011o;::te)f(b H COKpalJJalOIJJYIOC.H ;::t0111O KBa11HcPH!,!HpoBaHHble pa60THHKH «(Cne!,!Ha11HCTbJ»). OCHOBHblM HCT04HHKOM 6e3pa6oTHblX, no oTpac11eBoH K11accHcPHKa!,!HH, 6bl11a 06pa6aTbiBalOIJJa.fl npoMblw11eH- HOCTb, 3a KOTOPOH C1lEmOBa11H ToprOBmt, CTpoHTe11bCTBo H HaYKa. 3TH ;::taHHble HeB03MO)f(HO conOCTaBHTb C KapTHHOH cOKpalJJeHHfl 3aH.HTOCTH no OTpaC11.flM, nocK011bKY CTaTHCTHKa co6Hpa11aCb Ha OCHOBe pa3HOH KllaCCHcPHKa!,!HH. (CBO;::tHble ;::taHHble 0 6e3pa6oTHye no rpynne H pernoHY CM. B Ta611Hye 5-7 H Ta611Hl1e 5-8). llol1.H BHOBb perncTpHPYIOIJJHXC.H B Ka4eCTBe 6e3pa6oTHblX, n011Y4HBWHX noc06He pOClla (c 36,3% B cPespa11e 1992 r. ;::to 56,4% B MapTe 1993 r.), ;::tOCTHrHYS nHKa (71%) s CeHT.H6pe 1992 r., BepO.flTHO H3-3a nOTOKa SbInYCKHHKOB WK011, KOTopble perncTpHpoSa11HCb B Ka4eCTBe 6e3pa6oTHbiX nOC11e OKOH4aHHfl11eTHHX KaHHKY11. BbICOKa.H ;::t011.fl 11HY, BHOBb pernCTpHpyeMblx S Ka4eCTse 6e3pa60THbiX H He n011Y4aIOIJJHX noco6ml, OTqaCTH 061>.fICH.fIeTC.fI TeM, 4TO HeKOTopble H3 HHX He HMelOT npaBa Ha noc06He (HanpHMep, yso11HBWHeC.fI no c06CTBeHHoMY )f(e11aHHlO, pa60THHKH, 3aH.HTble Ha BpeMeHHblx H11H ce30HHbiX pa6oTax, He HMelOlJJHe MHHHMa11bHO Heo6xo;::tHMoro CTa)f(a; CM. Bpe3KY 5-3), OT4aCTH TeM, 4TO HeKOTopble 6e3pa6OTHbie nOC11e TOro, KaK HC4epna11H npaBO Ha n011Y4eHHe nOC06H.H, pernCTpHpOBa11HCb BHOBb no HCTe4eHHH HeKOToporo 274 oe3pa6omu/.Ia, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyda BpeMeHH. TaKHM 06pa30M, Bbl6blTHe H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa6oTHbiX no npH4HHe HCqepnaHHR npaBa Ha nonyqeHHe noco6HR no 6e3pa6oTH!!e C narOM B HeCKonbKO MeCR!!eB TpaHc¢opMHpOBanOCb B npHTOK nH!!, He HMelOij!HX npaBa Ha noco6He. E)KeMeCflqHOe 4Hcno OKOHqaHHH cpOKa BblnnaTbl noco6HH MeHflnOCb OT npHMepHo 13 TbIC. (MaH, HIOHb, ,QeKa6pb 1992 r.),Qo 30 TbIC. (flHBapb 1993 r.). HeH3BeCTHo KaKafl,Qonfi nOTepflBwHx npaBo Ha nonyqeHHe noco6HR BHOBb pernCTpHpoBanacb B Ka4eCTBe 6e3pa6oTHblX, HO 3Ta .o.onfl Morna COKpalJJaTbCfI, nOCKonbKY nlO,QH pa3YBepHnHCb B 61Opo no TPY,Q0YCTPOHCTBY KaK cpe.o.CTBe nOHCKa pa60T~H, cnenOBaTenbHO,nepeCTaBanH pernCTpHpOBaTbCfI. CornaCHO ,QaHHbIM nepenHcH, 57,7% 6e3pa6oTHbIX nOTepfinH pa60TY B pe3ynbTaTe cOKpalJJeHHfI WTaTOB HnH npeKpalJJeHHfI .o.eRTenbHOCTH npe.o.npHflTHfI; 17,6% YBonHnHcb no Ta6nHua 5-7. CTPYKTypa 6e3pa6OTH!!bI deKa6pb deKa6p'b deKa6pb 1990 z. 1991 z. 1992 z. Ee.paOOTHlV> Tw,. l{enOBCK 65,1 419,1 576,9 YpoBellL (j\;j\;) 1,7 11,1 15,3 )KcHlllHHI>J TLIC. qerrOBex 42,4 V..8,4 302,4 non. (j\; j\;) B o51l\eR uc.neHHOCTH 65,2 54,5 52,4 MOJlO;a;C3a. TbIC. 'lCJIOBeK 30,4 203,8 258,4 non. (j\; j\;) • 061l\eH QHc.neHHOCTH 46,8 48,6 44,8 KBaJlHlfKal.\HoHH.. rpynna (j\; j\;) P.OOQHe 50,6 68,3 74,9 enel1HaJI HCTJ.! 38,3 24,1 17,7 YnpaBJllllOll\He 5,6 2,9 2,5 TIpOQHe 5,5 4,7 4,9 OOp.lOBaRHe (j\; j\;) HallaJll>HOe 21,9 34,5 45,3 Cj>QHee 30,8 33,0 31,0 Cpc,JUfee cnettHaJlbHOe 27,7 21.4 15,4 Bwcwee 19,6 11,0 8,2 MCTOlDUn:: HSIlHOHaJIhHOC YIlpaB.'1CHHC no TPY.llY. EO.lllapUR 215 Ta6J1Hua 5-8. Be3pa60T.Hya no pernOHaM YpoBeHb 6e3pa6oTHltbl' FalloH 1990 1991 1992 19926 1993" Bcero 1,1 13,1 19,8 1S,1 21,4 coq,u.. (CTallHqaj 1,4 10,2 11,7 9,1 16,1 Eyprac 1,9 13,4 19,1 14,5 25,2 BapKo 1,1 12,9 14,9 JO,S 21,9 !lolleq 1,1 11,7 IS,S IS,S 16,6 MOHTBBll 1,7 16,1 27,3 23,1 25,2 I1nOIl,l1JlB 2,7 18,6 21,2 17,5 28,0 Py"" 1,4 13,1 17,7 17,1 20,2 Coq,SiiCKHii paiioH 2,4 13,8 25,S 16,8 28,3 XacltoBO 1,4 13,7 23,3 21,1 18,5 •. 'lHCJleaaOCTb saperscrpspo."IIII... 6e.pa6cTHLIX. 6, nepeoacb 1992 r. PaccUTaB Kax JJ.OJlI' "JtOHOMH~eCItR aJCTHBHoro BaCCJ1eHHJr. s. n........ 06cn.l\OBaHWl rpYl\OBLIX PCCypOOB. c06CTBeHHOMY )KeJ1aHl'llO; elYe 15,9% CTami 6e3pa60THblMH nOCJ1e OKOH'-IaHHfI CpeJlHen LUKOJ1bl, 2,4% nOCJ1e nOJ1Y'-IeHHfI BblCLUero 06pa30- BaHHfI H 6,5% nOCJ1e YBOJ1bHeHHfI H3 PflJlOB HaYHoHaJ1bHOn apMHH, HY)KHO 3aMeTHTb. '-ITO B nepenHCH HCn0J1b30BaJ10Cb CTaHJlapTHOe onpeJleJ1eHHe 6e3pa60THYbl H, CJ1eJlOBaTeJ1bHO, Te J1Hya, KOTopble nepeLUJ1H H3 KaTeropHH 3apernCTpHpOBaHHblX 6e3pa60THblX B pa3pflJl He3apernCTpHpOBaHHblX nOCJ1e HC4epnaHHfI npaBa Ha n0J1Y4eHHe noc06HfI no 6e3pa60THye, a 3aTeM BHOBb pernCTpHpOBaJ1HCb B Ka4eCTBe 6e3pa60THb1X, He Y'-IHTbIBaJ1HCb KaK nonaBLUHe B COCTaB 6e3pa6oTHbiX BTOPOj::j pa3. BbrobtmUe U3 '1UCJIG 3apezucmpupo(JaHHbl.X, 6e3pa6omHbI.X, .r:taHHble 0 Bbl6blTHH H3 4HCJ1a 3apernCTpHpOBaHHblX 6e3pa60THblX CYlYeCTBYJOT Ha'-lHHafi C flHBapfi 1992 r . .r:taHHble KJ1aCcHcpHYHPYJOT Bbl6blBalOlYHX no cJ1eJlYlOlYHM KaTeropHflM: HaeM Ha pa60TY, Jl06po- BOJ1bHOe CHfiTHe C Y'-IeTa H CHfiTHe C Y"leTa B pe3Y J1bTaTe Hec06J1IOJle- HHR 6e3pa60THblM Tpe60BaHHn 3aKOHa. JlIOJlH CHHMaJ1HCb C Y'-IeTa B OCHOBHOM no npH'-IHHe HeflBKH B 61Opo no TPYJlOYCTpOnCTBY B YCTaHOBJ1eHHble CpOKH (JlBa)KJlbl B MecflY JlO HOR6pR 1992 r. H pa3 B MecRY, Ha4HHafi C 3Toro BpeMeHH) HJ1H B pe3YJ1bTaTe OTKa3a OT npeJlJ10)KeHHOn pa60Tbl. npHMe'-laTeJ1bHO, '-ITO OCHOBHaR Macca J1HY, CHHMaeMblX C Y"leTa 276 Be3pa6omuz,Ja, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U Pb/HOK mpyda (OKono 70-80%%), CHHManaCb C Y"IeTa no npH"IHHe HaPYUJeHH1l Tpe60BaHHH aaKOHa (CM. PHCYHOK 5-7). POCT "IHCna CHHMaeMblX C yYeTa nHY B 60nbwoH CTeneHH MO)KeT 6blTb peaynbTaToM pOCTa "IHCna 6eapa60THblX, HC"IepnaBUJHx npaBO Ha nonY"leHHe nOC06H1l no 6e3pa60THye, TaKHX KaK XpOHH"IeCKH 6e3pa60THble. OH MO)KeT TaK)Ke OTpa)KaTb H3MeHeHH1l aaKOHO,llaTenbHoH 6aabl (orpaHH"IeHH1l Ha npaBo nonyYeHH1l nOC06H1l) H 60nee CTPOrHH KOHTponb, KOTOPblH 6bln BBe,lleH B 3TOH 06naCTH. HaeM Ha pa60TY .B Cpe,llHeM COCTaBn1ln nHUJb OKono 15% BbI6bITH1l Ha COCTaBa 6e3pa6OTHblx, XOT1l a6COJ1l0THOe "IHCnO Bbl6blTHH Ha pa60TY BoapaCTano, ,IloCTHrHYB npHMepHo 7 TbIC. B MeC1lY K KOHYY nepHO,lla. ,[lon1l )KeHll!HH Cpe,llH BbI6bIBalOll!HX Ha pa60TY 6blna BblCOKa H pocna (c 51% B lPeBpane ,IlO 61,5% B ,IleKa6pe 1992 r.). ,[lon1l cneYHanHCTOB TaK)Ke BoapaCTana (,IlO 46,0% B CeHT1l6pe), TaK)Ke KaK H MOnO,lle)KH (43,0% B oKT1l6pe). Bbl6blTHe H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THbiX nYTeM ,Il06pOBOnbHoro CH1lTH1l C Y"IeTa (oKono 10% 06ll!ero "IHCna BbI6bIBalOll!Hx) TaK)Ke BoapaCTano. O"leHb pe3KHH pOCT OTMe"leHHbIH B CeHT1l6pe 1992 r. B OCHOBHOM 06'bJlCHJleTCJI pe3KHM POCTOM "IHCJla .Q06POBOJlbHOrO CHHTHJI C yYeTa MOnO,lle)KH (4 369 "IenOBeK B ceHT1l6pe npoTHB Bcero nHUJb OKono 400 4enOBeK B lPeBpane), "ITO MO)KeT OTpa)KaTb PHCYHOK 5-7. Bbl6blTHe H3 "IHCna 6e3pa60THbiX H~qeInI RS perB¢Tpa JIai!:M Bu6J"mro lIS ~t~'~4~'~~'~T~'~~.~1~~11~1~tU+l~Z~'-CO~ 1992 1993 pa6o'leii: CImI>I BoaBpaT B UJKony HnH nocTynneHHe Ha KypCbl nepenO,llrOToBKH. ,[laHHble 06Cne,llOBaHH1l n03Bon.RIOT npe,llnOnOiKHTb, "ITO 60nbUJa1l "IaCTb ,Il06pOBonbHbiX CH.RTHH C Y4eTa Bep01lTHee Bcero 1lBn1leTC1l HeaaperHC- TpHpOBaHHblMH BbI6bITH.flMH Ha pa60TY, a He BbI6bITH1lMH H3 COCTaBa BomapUfl 277 pa60yeH CH11bl • .rtaHHble perHCTpOB 0 nOTOKaX B COCTaB 6e3pa60THbiX H Bbl6blTHH H3 Hero HeCK011bKO He.oOCTOBepHbl. nOCK011bKY OHH CO.oep)f(aT CYIYeCTBeHHYIO .001110 110)f(Hb1X nOTOKOB Me:lK.llY 3apernCTpHpOBaHHblMH H He3apernCTpHpOBaHHblMH 6e3pa60THb1MH. «l1CTHHHbIH» K03opM. CYl1leCTBYeT ABa BHAa noc06HH no 6e3pa60THL\e: noc06He H nOMol1lb. THn BNnna'lHBaeMoro noc06HJI CBII3aH C npH'IHHOii nOTepH pa60TN H nH'IHOCTb~ nonyqa~l1Iero nOMOl1lb. ABa THna noc06HH OT nH'Ia~TCII KaK pa3MepoM, TaK H npoAon~HTenbHocTb~ BblnnaTN. npaBO Ha nOJlytJeHHe nOC06HJI nOC06He no 6e3pa60THL\e nepBOHa'lanbHO Bblnna'lHBanOCI> nHWI> H36NTO'lHblM pa60THHKaM (YBoneHHblM no cOKpal1leHH~ WTaTOB HnH B pe3ynl>TaTe nonHoro HnH 'IaCTH'IHOra 3aKpblTHH HX MeCTa pa60TbI), KOTopble pa60TanH He MeHee BOCbMH H3 nocneAHHx ABeHaAL\aTH MeCHL\eB HnH, B cnyqae C BHOBI> nonaBWHMH B COCTaB pa60'leH cHnbl, KOTopble npopa6OTanH MeHee BOCI>MH MeCIIL\eB, He MeHee ceMHAecHTH nHTH AHeH. nOMOl1l1> B CBII3H C 6e3pa60THL\eH BNnna'lHBanaCI> MonoAbiM n~AHM, BnHBa~I1IHMCH B COCTaB pa60'leH cHnbl, H 6b1na 06ycnosneHa ypoBHeM 06pa30BaHHH. npaBO Ha nOMOl1lb Morl1H nony"lHTb ABe rpyllllbi MonoAblx mOAeii - nonY'lHBWHe Bblcwee 06pa30BaHHe (<HL\HpOBaHHble pa60'lHe. YBoneHHble co cnyx<6b1 B apMHH nony'lHnH npaBO Ha nOMOl1l1> B CBII3H C 6e3pa60THL\eii. Pa3Mep BbIDJlatJHBaeMOrO nOC06HJI OCHOBaAl1H paC'IeTa pa3Mepa noc06HH H nOMOI1lH MeHllnaCI> HeCKOnl>KO pa3. CornaCHO AeHCTBYlOl1IHM HHCTpyKL\HIIM (C H~nH 1992 r.), noc06He no 6e3pa60THl\e npe~e 3aHIITbiM nonHNH pa60'lHH AeHI> nH[(aM YCTaHaBnHBanocl> B pa3Mepe 60Y. cpej:\Heii 3apa60THoH nnaTbi (Ha aeHOBe KOTOPOH BNnna'lHBanHCI> CTpaXOBbie B3HOCbI) 3a nocnej:\HHe WeCTI> MeCIIL\eB pa60TbI. OAHaKO pa3Mep noc06HII He Mor 6blTb HH~e 90Y. Hl1H Bblwe 140Y. MHHHManbHoii 3apa60THoii nnaTbi. AnH nH[(. npe~Ae pa60TaBwHx HenonHNii pa60'lHH AeHI> , noc06He paCC'IHTNBanocb npOnOpl\HOHanbHo pa60'leMY BpeMeHH. EcnH nHL\O. HMe~l1Iee npaBo Ha noc06He no 6e3pa60TH[(e Ha'lHHanO pa60TaTb HenonHblH pa60'lHii AeHl>, OHO coxpaHII110 npaBO Ha 1l011Y"leHHe SOY. 1l0C06HII, ecl1H era 3apa60THall IlnaTa He npeBl>lWana MHHHManbHoH. nOMOl1lb B CBII3H c6e3pa60TH[(eH Bblnl1a"lHBanaCI> B pa3Mepe MHHHManbHoii 3apa60THOH nnaTN. 280 BeipaoomUl-la, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyi3a 7. Bpe3Ka 5-3. CHCTeMa noco6HH no 6e3pa6oTHue npO~onlKeHHe Bpe:lKH Pa:lMep noco6HR KaK ~onR cpe~HeH :lapa60THoH nnaT~ pa6oqero, pa60TalOutero nonH~H pa60qHii ~eHb H:lMeHRnaCb B oqeHb WHPOKHX npe~enax. ,[leiicTBoaaBwaR~O ceHTR6pR 1991 r. cHcreMa npe~ycMaTpHBana OH,Qa 6e3pa6oTH!J,bl. 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'-IT06bl HrpaTb cyy!eCTBeHHYJO ponb B COKpay!eHHH 6e3pa6OTHijbl. BbIBO.!lbl OCHOBHblM cpaKTopOM Cl1nbHoro COKpay!eHHH npOH3BO,l:tCTBa H 3aHHTOC- TH B Bonrapl1H 6blJ1a HCKn1Q'-IHTenbHaH CHna nepBOHa'-lanbHblX nOTpHceHHH. BonrapHH npaKTH'-IeCKI1 He npe,l:tnpl1HHMana Mep no BHyrpeHHeH nH6epanH3aijHH H ,l:t0 1989 r. HMena OTHOCHTenbHO He60nbllloH 06'beM ToprOBnl1 C 3ana,l:tOM. OHa TaK)I(e YHaCne,l:tOBana OrpOMHble ,l:tonrn B KOHBepTl1pyeMoH BanlOTe, YCKOPHIOQJYIOCH HHcpnH- ijl1l0 H MaKp03KOHOMH'-IeCKYIO HeCTa6HnbHOCTb. o'-I eBH,l:tHO, '-ITO I1cnpaBI1Tb cHTyaijl1lO, Ha'-lHHaH C TaKoro 6e,l:tCTBeHHoro nOnO)l(eHI1H 6blno TPY,l:tHO npl1 nlO6blX 06CTOHTenbCTBax. Be3 pecpopM jjlllOKOBOH Tepanl1W< cpeBpanH 1991 r., 3KOHOM11Ka Bonrapl1l1 nerno Morna nocne,l:tOSaTb no TOMY )l(e nYTH. '-ITO H 3KOHOMHKa YKpaHHbl. KOTOPblH xapaKTep113yeTcH paCKpY'-IHBalOlJ!eHCH cnl1panblO I1HCPnHl.lI1I1. KonnanCOM npOMbllllneHHoro np0113BO,l:tCTBa 11 nOBceMeCTHblM TOBapHbiM ,l:tecpl1l.lHTOM. TIpO,l:tBH)I(eHHe no nyrl1 pecpopM. TeM He MeHee, pa30'-lapOBblBaeT. H BonrapHH OTCTaeT OT ,l:tpyrnx nepeXO,l:tHblX 3KOHOMI1K. OCHOBHOH npl1'-111HOH HBnHeTCH TO, '-ITO o6'beM 3KcnopTa B CTpaHbl 3ana,l:ta. KOTOPblH HBnHnCH Ba)l(HblM I1CTO'-lHI1KOM pOCTa ,l:tnH MHornx CTpaH. B BonrapHH. B cHny ee reorpacpl1'-1eCKOrO nOnO)l(eHI1H 11 HapYllleHI1H ToprOBblX nyreH B CBH3H C BOHHOH B 6blBweH IOrocnaBI1I1. He B03POC B ,l:tOn)l(HOH Mepe. TaKI1M 06pa30M. OCHOBHblM orpaHl1'-1HTeneM 3KOHOM11'-1eCKOrO pOCTa B BonrapHI1 BblcTynaeT nnaTe)l(HblH 6anaHC. YnyqweHl1e ToproBoro nOnO)l(eHHH BonrapHI1 Cl1nbHO 3aBHCHT OT C06blT11H 3a npe,l:tenaMI1 ee rpaHI1!!. KaK Ha 3ana,l:te (Cep611H). TaK 11 Ha BOCTOKe (YKpa11Ha 11 POCCI1H). TIoKa )l(e 3ana,l:tHbie CTpaHbl H Me)l():tYHapO,l:tHble opraHH3aijHH MOryr 06ner'-l11Tb 3Ty np06neMY 60nee 6blCTPO CHH3HB TapHcpbl H ToproBble 6apbepbl (YCTpaHI1B KBOTbl). nepeCMOTpeB rpacpHK BbInnaTbl ,l:tonra H npe,l:tOCTaBI1B 3aHMbi B I1HOCTpaHHOH BanlOTe. 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CJlenOSaTeJlb- HO, 06beM np0l13BOnCTBa H 3aHflTOCTb 6ynyr MeHflTbCfl B OOI1HaKOSOH EiO./leapUR 287 nponop!,!HH C nOCTaBKaMH CblpbH. ECnH !,!enblO npOtPCOlO3a HBnHeTCH COXpaHeHHe 3aHHTOCTH, TO OTCIOIla CneJ:l)'eT, \.ITO npH 3aIlaHHOM ypOBHe 3aHHTOCTH, IlOmfCHa 6YIleT COKpaTHTbCH peanbHaH 3apa60THaH nnaTa, npH\.IeM B TOH )f(e npono- P!JHH. nen r). (Ka)f(JlaH eIlHHH!,!a npOH3BeIleHHOH nponyK!,!HH YBenH\.IHBaeT \.IHCTYIO Bblpy\.lKy H, cnenOBaTenbHO. paCXOIlbl Ha onnaTY TpYIla, n03TOMY npH IlaHHOM KOnH\.IeCTBe pa60THHKOB OHa YBenH\.IHBaeT 3apa6oTHYlO nnaTY Ka)f(JlOro pa6o\.lero). EcnH Il06aBneHHaH CTOHMOCTb CTaHOBHTCH OTpH!,!aTenbHOH, npeIlnpHHTHe npeKpaTHT npOH3BOIlHTb Boo6tye. B cny\.lae MaKCHMH3a!,!HH peHTbl, npeIlnpHHTHe TO)f(e coxpaHHT npeIlblIlytyHH ypOBeHb npOH3BOIlCTBa HnH Bo06tye 3aKpOeTCH. no- CKOJ1bKY B 3TOM CJ1y\.lae 06beM nOTpe6nf/eMblX MaTepHanbHblX tPaKTOPOB npOH3BOIlCTBa MO)KeT KoppeKTHpOBaTbCH B COOTBeTCTBHH C ypOBHeM 3aHHTOCTH, peaJ1bHaH 3apa6oTHaH nJ1aTa nOCTOHHHa H He 3aBHCHT OT ypOBHH 3aHHTOCTH, n03TOMY IlO Tex nop, nOKa peaJ1bHaH 3apa6oTHaH nJ1aTa npeBbllllaeT BHelllHHe IlOXOIlbl, ypOBeHb 3aHHTOCTH 6YIleT COXpaHf/TbCH Ha npe)f(HeM ypOBHe. 288 Ee3pa6omw.ja, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa Jones, D. C., and T. Kato. 1993. "The Nature and Determinants of Labor Market Transition in Former Socialist Economies: Evidence from Bulgaria." Working Paper 93/5, Department of Economics, Hamilton College, New York. OECD. 1992. Employment Ouclook. Paris. 6 ,lfJ/CO'Jt C.3plZ, reopcu Onpeexy rnaBHaH 3a,Qa4a ,QaHHOH rnaBbl COCTOHT B TOM, 4To6bl YHCHHTb H paCKpblTb CYlllHOCTb OCHOBHblX H3MeHeHHH, npOHCXO,QHIJ.!HX Ha pblHKe TpY,Qa B PYMblHHH C Ha4anOM nepeXO,QHOrO nepHO,Qa B 1990r. ,i4eTanbHO 6Y,QeT paCCMOTpeHO nOBe,QeHHe nepeMeHHblX, XapaKTe- PH3YJOl,UHX COCTOHHHe COBoKynHoro pblHKa TpY,Qa - 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl, 3aHHTOCTH H 6e3pa6oTHUbI - C Y4eTOM B03,QeHCTBH.R Ha HHX pa3nH4HbIX BHelIIHHX q,aKTOpOB, a TaK)Ke -C yqeTOM npOBO,QHMOH MaKp03KOHO- MH4eCKOH nOnHTHKH, CTpYKTYPHOH nonHTHKH H npaKTHKH perynHpo- BaHHR pbIHKa TPY,Qa. ,i4oCTaT04HO CnO)KHO onpe,QenHTb peanbHoe B03,QeHCTBHe 3THX q,aKTOpOB Ha PbIHOK TpY,Qa, H He TonbKO nOTOMY 4TO npOHCXO,QHIJ.!He H3MeHeHHH HOCHT WHpOKOMaClIITa6HblH H MHoron- naHOBbIH xapaKTep, HO TaK)Ke H nOTOMY 4TO HOBaH HHCTHTYUHOHanb- HaH CTpYKTypa TonbKO Ha4HHaeT q,OpMHpOBaTbCH, a ,QeHTenbHOCTb q,HPM H OT,QenbHbIX HH,QHBH,QYYMOB ,QO CHX nop HeceT Ha ce6e 6peMlI npownoH rnnep!.!,eHTpanH30aaHHoH CHCTeMbl ynpaBneHHH 3KOHOMHKOH. 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POCT 6e3pa60THUbi npeBbICHn na,QeHHe 3aHRToCTH, a ypOBeHb 3KOHOMH4eCKOH aKTHBHOCTH TPY,Qocnoco6Horo 290 Be3pa6omul4a, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U Pbl.HOK mpyoa HaceneHHH CKOpee BblPOC, 4eM ynan (TaKOe naoeHHe 6blno XapaK- TepHblM ,l:InH ,l:Ipyrnx CTpaH pernOHa). Heo6xo,l:lHMO TaK)f(e OTMeTHTb 3Ha4HTenbHoe H3MeHeHHe npO,l:lOJDKHTenbHOCTH cpe,l:lHeH pa604eH He,l:lenH (cpe,l:lHerO KonH4eCTBa oTpa6OTaHHbiX 4aCOB), 4TO CBH,l:IeTenb- CTByeT 0 TOM, 4TO OTMe4aeMblH ypOBeHb na,l:leHHH npOH3BO,l:lHTenb- HOCTH TpY,l:Ia H TeMn na,l:leHHH peanbHOH 3apa60THOH nnaTbl HBnHIOTCR HeCKonbKO npeyeenH4eHHblMH. B Te4eHHe npaKTH4eCKH Bcero nepHO,l:la HH,l:IeKC nOTpe6HTenbCKHX yeH pOC Me,l:lneHHee, 4eM yeHbl npOH3BO,l:lH- TenH, H TaKHM 06pa30M, peanbHaH 3apa60THaR nnaTa nOKynaTenR CHH3HnaCb MeHbwe, 4eM peanbHaH 3apa6oTHaH nnaTa KaK 3neMeHT ce6eCTOHMoCTH. 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CHryaUH.H H3MeHHJlaCb KopeHHblM 06pa30M, H B HaCTOHYlee BpeMH PYMblHHH nOCTOHHHO CTaJlKHBaeTCH C He06xo.z:tHMOCTblO .z:tOCTaT04HO )KeCTKOrO Bbl60pa Me>KJlY 3aH.HTOCTblO H .z:toxo.z:taMH. ~aB KpaTKHH 0630p nOCTO.HHHO MeH.HIOYleHCH nOJlHTHKe peryJlHpOBaHHH 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl H Me.z:tJleH- HO pa3BHBalOYlHMCH HHCTHTYTaM Be.z:teHI1.H neperOBopOB 0 3aKJl104eHHH KOJlJleKTHBHblX .z:torOBopOB Me)K.z:tY HaHHMaTeJlHMH H npoq,COI03aMH, aBTopbl aHaJlH3HpYIOT pa3Jll14HH B ypOBHHX 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl no OT.z:teJlbHbIM OTpaCJl.HM H pH.z:t onpe.z:teJlHIOYlI1X 3TH pa3JlH4H.H q,aKTopOB. B ueHTpe CJle.z:tYIOYlero pa3.z:teJla - H3MeHeHHe 3aHHTOCTH H TeKY4eCTb pa604eH CHJlbl. ~aeTCH .z:teTaJlbHblH aHaJlH3 npHTOKa pa604eH CHJlbl B rocceKTOp H OTTOKa H3 Hero, npOCJle)KHBaeTC.H 292 Ee3pa6omutja, nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa 3BOmOUHJI pa3JIHqHbiX HanpaBJIeHHH nOJIHTHKH B 06JIaCTH 3aHRTOCTH - OT npaKTHKH ",I:(06POBOJIbHbIX" YSOJIbHeHHH ,1:(0 !,!eJIeHanpaBJIeHHOrO COKpal.UeHHR 3aHRTbIX. 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XapaKTepHCTHKa pbIHKa TpY)la PHCYHOK 6-1 HJIJIIOCTpHpyeT MeHfllOlllHHCfl CTaTYc TpY,l:(ocnoc06Horo HaCeJIeHHR PYMblHHH Ha pblHKe Tpy,l:(a C 1989r. no KOHe!,! 1992r. ,IlOJIR pa60qeH CHJIbl no OTHOUleHHIO KO BceMY TpY,l:(ocnoc06HoMY HaCeJIeHHIO 3HaqHTenbHO nO,l:(HflJIaCb C 80,4% B 1989r. ,1:(0 85.2% B 1992r. 3TO 6blJIO CBR3aHO KaK C YBeJIHqeHHeM qHCJIeHHOCTH pa60qeH CHJIbl, TaK H PyMblHUJl 293 1 C COKpaweHHeM lIHCJIeHHOCTH HaCeJIeHHfI B TelleHHe 3TOrO nepHO,l:la. B 3HallHTeJIbHoi1 CTeneHH npHpOCT pa601lei1 CHJIbl 6blJI CBfl3aH C aKTHBH3aUHei1 :lKeHCKOrO TpY,I:Ia, 3KOHOMHlIeCKafi aKTHBHOCTb :lKeHI!!HH pe3KO B03pOCJIa C 76.2% ,1:10 85.2%, T.e. ,I:IOCTHrJIa ypOBHfI, xapaKTep- Horo ,l:lJIfi MY:lKCKoi1 lIaCTH HaCeJIeHHH. PHCYUOK 6-1. COCTaB pa60lJeii eH))bl, na KOne!! rot:{a, 1989-92. 12.-__________________ ~ _____________ .••.......••.......•......•••.......... ~ 10 +--------- ~--- - - - - - - - - 8+---~~~~n.~.~~·~------------­ .. .. " '" - .. , '" e +-------~ - - - - - - - - - - - .. .- - - -' -. .'" :F:cccr o =: )'r:-:::::: 1989 , :: v 1990 1991 1992 rocy~apcTBeHlibm ceKTOp KOOIIepaTHBHDIH ceKTOp '1aCTHLIH ceKTOp pa6o'laH CHJIa 6e3pa6oTHl>Ie IIeHCHOHepbI TIpHMe'laHHe: Bce AaHHhle Ha KOHel.l COOTBeTCTBYJOu~ero rOAa. :la HCKJ1IO'IeHHeM neHCHOHepOB. AnR KOTOPhlX npHBeAeHa cpeAHerOAOBaR 'IHCneHHOCTb. HCTO'lHHK: eNS . I B COCTaB TPY,I:Ioenoc06HOro HaeeJIeHHfI BXO,l:lflT JIHUa MY:lKeKoro nOJIa B B03paCTe OT 16,1:1059 JIeT H :lKeHcKoro nOJIa - OT 16,1:1054 JIeT• .llJIfi pa60TalOI!!HX B CeJIbCKOM X03f1i1cTBe TPY,I:Iocnoco6Hbli1 B03pacT npO,l:lJIeBaeTCfI ellle Ha 5 JIeT. no 3TOMY onpe,l:leJIeHHIO, lIHCJIeHHOCTb TpY,I:Iocnoc06Horo HaCeJIeHHfI ynaJIa C 13,61 MJIH. B 1989 r. ,1:10 13,36 MJIH. B 1992 r. 294 Be3pa6omu'4a, nepeCmpOilKa 3KOHOMUKU U Pbl'HOK mpyiJa YBeJlH4eHHe YPOBHfl 3KOHOMH4eCKOH aKTHBHOCTH HaCeJleHHfl npOH30111JlO HeCMOTpfl Ha BpeMeHHOe llleCTHMeCJl4HOe CHWKeHHe neHCHOHHOrO B03paCTa B 1990r. KaK BH,IlHO Ha pHCYHKe, Cpe,llHee KOJlH4eCTBO neHCHOHepOB no cpaBHeHHIO C 1990r. YBeJlH4HJlOCb npH6JlH3HTeJlbHO Ha 450000 B 1991r. l..{To )Ke KaCaeTCJI ,IlaHHblX 06 H3MeHeHHH 3aHJlTOCTH no OT,IleJlbHblM B03paCTHbiM KaTeropHJlM, TO TaKYJO HH¢opMalJ,HIO MO)KHO nOJlY4HTb TOJlbKO H3 pe3YJlbTaTOB nepenHCH HaCeneHH.fI, npOBO,llHBllleHCJI B 1992 r. n03TOMY npe,llCTaB- JlJleTCJI HeB03MO)KHbIM ,IlaTb T04HYJO olJ,eHKY MaclllTa6aM H3MeHeHHJI ,IlOJlH pa604eH CHJlbl B TpY,Ilocnoco6HoM HaCeJleHHH BCJle,llCTBHe CHH3HBllleroCJI B 1990r. neHCHOHHoro B03pacTa. Ha pHcYHKe Bbl,lleJlJlIOTCJI TpH KaTeropHH 3aHJlTbiX - B rocceK- Tope, KoonepaTHBHOM H 4aCTHOM ceKTopax - 3TO C,IleJlaHO ,IlJlJl Toro, 4T06bl 4eT4e Bbl,llenHTb OCHOBOnOJlaralOl!!HH npo!Jecc 3KOHOMH4eCKHX npe06pa30BaHHH B nepeXO,llHblH nepHO,ll - COKpal!!eHHe rOCY,IlapCTBeH- Horo H "nCeB,IlOKoonepaTHBHoro" CeKTOpOB H pa3BHTHe 4aCTHoro ceKTopa. 3aHJlTOCTb B rOCY,IlapCTBeHHOM ceKTope ynaJla npH6JlH3H- TeJlbHO Ha 25%. ,IlaHHble no KoonepaTHBaM npaKTH4eCKH BbInaJlH H3 Bbl60PKH BCJle,llCTBHe CHJlbHOrO cmcpal!!eHH.fI, a 3aHRTOCTb B 4aCTHOM ceKTope COOTBeTCTBeHHO B03paCTaJla. 3TH TeH,IleHlJ,HH MO)KHO 06'b.flCHHTb KaK pa3BaJlOM KoonepaTHBOB B CeJlbCKOM X03flHCTBe. TaK H 40%-HOH npHBaTH3aUHeH rocY,IlapcTBeHHblX ToproBblX npe,llnpHHTHH. l..{TO KaCaeTCJI ,IlPyrnx ceKTopOB 3KOHOMHKH. TO nepexo,ll co6CTBeH- HOCTH B PYKH 4aCTHoro KanHTaJla 6blJl He3Ha4HTeJlbHbIM. 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B TO lie BpeMlf HH,ll,CKt- UPOMLtIWlclIBoro n,POH3BOAt-TB8 yqHTblBaeT H 06'hCM UPOJlYl,:l.l,HR. Bhmycx&eVOK • ".CTlIOM '''TOJIC. Hcro'lllHX: CNS (IIaIlHORaJlLHLrH KOMHTeT no eraTHeruxe). PHCftlOK 6-2. PeaJlbHall 3apa6oTHall "naTa (1989=100) 160 150 140 ..... , 130 120 110 100 90 ·80 70 60 50 40 ~~--r-~~-r~-'--r-~~~~-.--r-.- 1989 I II III N II III N II III IV II III 1990 1991 1992 1993 ••••nOliaCOBaJI sapnJIaTa, CKOppeKTHpOBaHHaJI Ha HH,AeKC nOTPe6B.TelThCKJIX o;eH _nOliaCOBaJI SaplIJIaTa, CKOppeKTHPOBaHHaJI Ha HH,AeKC o;eH npOH3BO,u;HTeIDI - eXeMeCH'lHaJI SapnJIaTa. CKOppeKTHpOBaHHaJI Ha HH,IJ;eKC nOTpe6B.TeJILCKHX o;eH -....;..exeMeC.JI1IlIaJI SapIIJIaTa, CKOppeKTHPOBaHHaJI Ha HH,AeKC o;eH rrpOH3BO,u;HTeIDI PYMblHUfl 297 COB l!eH nOTpe6HTeJI.R H npOH3BO,!:lHTeJI.R COOTBeTCTBeHHO). MH,!:leKCbl 6blJIH nO,!:lC4HTaHbl C 1989r. no 3 KBapTaJI 1993r. BKJII04HTeJIbHO, npH4eM Y4HTbiBaJIHCb H3MeHeHH.R 1990r. B KOJIH4eCTBe oTpa60TaHHbix 4aCOB. 4TO He npHHHMaJIOCb BO BHHMaHHe oq,Hl,lHaJIbHOH CTaTHCTHKOH 3 H He HaWJIO OTpa)l(eHH.R BO MHornx HCCJIe,!:lOBaHH.Rx.TpaeKTopHH Ha rpaq,HKe HJIJIIOCTPHPYIOT pa3JIH4H.R B nOBe,!:leHHH Bbiwenepe4HCJIeHHbiX nOKa3aTeJIeH.PeaJIbHa.Re)l(eMeC.R4Ha.R3apa60THa.RnJIaTanOTpe6HTeJI.R ynaJIa Ha 30%, HO O,!:lHOBpeMeHHo peaJIbHa.R n04aCOBa.R 3apa60THa.R nJIaTa nOTpe6HTeJI.R nO,!:lH.RJIaCb Ha 15%. MH,!:leKC l!eH npOH3BO,!:lHTeJI.R B03POC 3Ha4HTeJIbHO 60JIbWe, 4eM HH,!:leKC l,leH nOTpe6HTeJI.R. TaKHM 06pa30M 3apnJIaTa KaK 3JIeMeHT ce6eCToHMoCTH ynaJIa rOpa3,!:l0 CHJIbHee, 4eM 3apnJIaTa, n03BOJI.RlOlYa.R n01U{ep)l(HBaTb onpe,!:leneHHblH ypoBeHb )l(H3HH. M XOT.R BpeMeHHble p.R,!:lbl .RBJI.RIOTC.R ,!:lOCTaT04HO KOpOTKHMH, 4T06bl MO)l(HO 6blJIO C,!:leJIaTb ,!:laJIeKOH,!:lYlYHe BbIBO,!:lbl, HO O,!:lHa HHTepeCHa.R 3aKoHoMepHoCTb npOCJIe)l(HBaeTC.R ,!:lOCTaT04HO 4eTKO - Bce KpHBble KOJIe6JIIOTC.R l!HKJIH4eCKH, na,!:la.R K Ha4aJIY rO,!:la H ,!:lOCTHra.R CBoero nHKa r,ne-TO K cepe,nHHe ro,na. 06b.RCHeHHe 3TOMY .RBJIeHHIO Mbl nonp06yeM ,naTb B CJIe,!:lYlOlYHX pa3,!:leJIax. BHeWHHe q,aKTOpbl CmPYKmYPHOfl nOJlUmUKO U ee oco6eHHocmu PYMbIHH.R BCTynHJIa B nepeXO,!:lHbIH nepHO,!:l. HMe.R BeCbMa He6JIaron- PH.RTHble Ha4aJIbHbie YCJIOBH.R pa3BHTH.R, KOMnJIeKCHblH aHaJIH3 KOTOPblX 6blJI npe,ncTaBJIeH Y)I(e BO MHornx ,!:lOKYMeHTax (CM. World bank 1992; Montias 1991; Earle and Sapatoru 1993,OECD 1993). O,!:lHHM H3 caMblX HeraTHBHblX q,aKTOpOB .RBJI.RJIOCb Hepal!HoHaJIbHOe HCnOJIb30BaHHe Bcex pecypcoB. BKJII04a.R pa604YIO CHJIy. TPH nOKa3a- TeJI.R .fICHO xapaKTepH3YIOT Hepal!HOHaJIbHOCTb CYlYecTBoBaBweH CHCTeMbl pacnpe,neneHH.R pecypcoB. 3 K CO)l(aJIeHHIO, OTCYTCTBYIOT ,!:laHHbIe OTHOCHTeJlbHO KOJIH4eCTBa oTpa60TaHHbiX 4aCOB B 1993 r., n03ToMY Mbl CMOrJIH ,naTb COOTBeTCT- BYlOlYHe p.R,!:lbl TOJIbKO ,!:l0 KOHl!a 1992 r. Mbl Bblpa)l(aeM 6JIaro,napHocTb (J).,[lxaHH H A.reJI6y 3a H,!:lelO 60JIee nOJlHOrO aHaJlH3a H3MeHeHHH ypOBH.fI 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl B Te4eHHe 1990 r. nOCKOJIbKY oq,Hl!HaJIbHO npHH.RTbIH "HH,!:leKC peaJIbHOH 3apa60THoH nJIaTbI" HC4HCJI.fIeTC.R Ha4aJJOM OKT.fI6p.R 1990 r •• Mbl npH BbIBe,!:leHHH HOB oro HH,!:leKCa Y4JlH CTaTHCTH4eCKHe P.R,!:lbl KOJIe6aHHH 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl H l!eH H B npe,!:l- weCTBYlOlYHe MeC.Rl,lbl. 298 Ee3pa6omW4a, nepecmpoilr;;a 3KOHOMUKU U PbtHOK mpyoa 3TO, Bo-nepBblx, BbICOKaH CTeneHb (Jla)l(e no BOCT04HoeBponeH- CKHM MacuJTa6aM) OXBaTa pblHKa rocceKTopoM. aKTH4eCKH, BeCb KanHTaJ1 6blJ1 B PYKax rOCYJlapCTBa. K 1985r. 06'beM npOMbllUJ1eHHoro npOH3BOJlCTBa, npHXOJlHIJ!HHCH Ha rOCYJlapCTBeHHble npeJlnpHHTHH, JlOCTHr 95%; B CeJ1bCKOM X03HHcTBe 80% Bcex 06pa6aTbiBaeMbix 3eMeJ1b npHHaJlJ1e)l(aJ1o COBX03aM H K0J1X03aM; npH6J1H3HTeJ1bHO 90% Bcex KanHTaJ10BJ10)l(eHHH HanpaBJ1HJ10Cb B rocceKTop. YnpaBJ1eHHe 3KOHOMHKOH oCYll!ecTBJ1HJ10Cb no BepTHKaJ1bHOH cxeMe - OT rocYJlap- CTBeHHoro nJ1aHOBOro KOMHTeTa 4epe3 MHHHcTepCTBa, rJ1aBKH K KOHKpeTHblM npOH3BOJlCTBeHHbiM eJlHHHyaM. 11 XOTH B 80-x IT. Ha4aJ1aCb KaMnaHHH no BHeJlpeHHIO "HcXoJlHlJ!eH C HH3a" CHCTeMbl nJ1aHHpOBaHHH, pacnpeJleJ1eHHe pecypcoB nO-npe)l(HeMY yeHTpaJ1H30- BaHHO OCYlJ!eCTBJ1HJ10Cb rOCnJ1aHoM. B OTJ1H4He OT JlPyrnx BOCT04- Ho-eBponeHcKHx CTpaH. rJle B 60-70 rOJlbl Ha4aJ1 npOHCXoJlHTb nOCTeneHHblH nepeXOJl OT K0J1H4eCTBeHHbIX nOKa3aTeJ1eH B nJ1aHaX K CTOHMOCTHbIM. nJ1aHHpOBaHHe B PYMblHHH npoJloJ1)1(aJ1o onHpaTbcH Ha MHO)l(eCTBO HaTypaJ1bHblX nOKa3aTeJ1eH, npH4eM npoH3BOJlCTBeHHbiM eJlHHHyaM 3a4aCTYIO YCTaHaBJ1HBaJ1CH KOHKPeTHblH ypoBeHb 06'beMa 4 npOH3BOJlCTBa B COOTBeTCTBYlOl!!HX eJlHHl1yax. BO-BTOPbIX, npOB03- rJ1alUeHHaH COYHaJ1HCTH4eCKI1MI1 CTpaHaMH reHepaJ1bHaH J1HHI1H Ha npOBeJleHHe HHJlYCTpHaJ1H3aYHH 3KOHOMHKH B PYMblHHH nOJ1y t mJ1a OC06blH CTaTYC, oc06eHHO nOCJ1e npHxona K BJ1aCTH 4aYlUeCKY B 1965r. B arpapHOH CTpaHe B nepHOJl C 1950r. no 1989r. npOH30lUJ10 3Ha4HTeJ1bHOe YBeJ1H4eHHe yneJ1bHOrO Beca B OCHOBHOM KanHTaJ1e OTpaCJ1eH npOH3BOJlCTBeHHOH cepepbl - C 19.5% JlO 47.5% (B nBa C n0J10BHHOH pa3a); nOJ1H cepepbl yCJ1yr. Ha060poT. CHH3HJ1aCb Bn0J10BH- HY, ynaB C 34.6% JlO 17.1%. BbmycK npOnYKYHH J1erKOH npOMbllUJ1eH- HOCTH B nepHoJl KOMMYHHcTH4ecKoro npaBJ1eHHH nOCTOHHHO CHH)I(aJ1CH, 4TO 4eTKO nOKa3bIBaeT HenpHopHTeTHoe n0J10)l(eHHe OTpaCJ1H . .1lpyroe TOMY nOJlTBep)l(neHHe - yneJ1bHble Beca B BaJ10BOM BHYTpeHHeM npoJlYKTe paCXoJlOB Ha J1H4HOe nOTpe6J1eHHe (56% B 1983r.) H 06'beMa BHYTpeHHHx KanHTaJ10BJ10)l(eHHH (34% B 1983r.). Me)l(ny TeM, 4HCTblH 4 B 60J1blUHHCTBe JlPyrnx CTpaH C aJlMHHHCTpaTHBHO-nJ1aHOBOH CHCTeMOH ynpaBJ1eHHH npH6eraJ1H ropa3no B 60J1blUeH CTeneHH K HCn0J1b30BaHHIO B Ka4eCTBe nJ1aHOBbIX HOMpaTHBOB nOKa3aTeJ1eH 06'beMa peaJ1H30BaHHOH npOJlyKyHH HJ1H BeJ1H4HHbl BaJ10BOrO nOxona, OCTaBJ1Hn onpeJleJ1eHHYIO CB060JlY JleHCTBHH B JlOCTlf)l(eHHH 3TI1X yeJ1eH np0l13BOJlCTBeHHbiM enHHHyaM. B PYMblHl11f )l(e Hcn0J1b30BaJ1I1Cb npaKTH4eCKI1 He npl1MeHneMble B JlpyrHx CTpaHax nOKa3aTeJ111 epH3114eCKoro 06'beMa npOH3BOnCTBa, 4TO n0J1Y4HJ10 ell!e 60J1blUee pacnpOCTpaHeHl1e B nepHOJl 060CTpeHHH neepHYHTa. PYMbiHUR 299 3KcnopT B03paCTaJl H ,ClOCTHr K KOH!'!y 80-x IT. 10% BBn.s ,Lla)Ke BHJ'TPH caMoH npOMbIlllJleHHOCTH "IeTKO npOCJle)KHBaeTCH KpeH B CTOPOHY pa3BHTHH TH)KeJlbIX OTPaCJleH, '-ITO nO,ClTBep)K,ClaeT Ta6JlHua 6-2.6 Ta6J1Hua 6-2. OTpaCJleBaH CTpYKTypa npOMbllllJleHHoro npOH3BO,ClCTBa B PYMbIHHH, 1938-89 IT. (B npoueHTax) npOMhlWlleHHOe npOH3BOACTBO no 1938 1950 1960 1970 1980 1985 1989 OTAelll>HhlM OTpaCllRM 31leKTp03HepreTHKa H TOnllHBHaR 1.1 ·1.~ 2.5 3.2 1.8 3.5 3.9 npOMhlWlleHHOCTb T!llKella!l npOMhlWlleHHOCTb 36.6 35.3 47.9 52.4 59.3 60.7 59.3 npOH3BOACTBO MaTepHa1l0B 11:9 13.6 11.7 11.2 8.9 8.4 8.7 lIerKaR npOMhlWlleHHOCTI> 50.5 49.2 37.9 33.2 30.0 27.4 28.1 l-horo: 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 HCTO'lllHlt: eNS; Ea,Ioo and Sapo''''''' 1993 HaKoHeu, xapaKTepHoH ,ClJlH 3KOHOMHKH PYMblHHH 6bIJla BblCOKaH CTeneHb ropH30HTaJlbHOH H BepTHKallbHoH HHTerpaUHH. a Cpe,ClHHH pa3Mep PYMblHCKHX npe,ClnpHHTHH npeBbllllall aHallOrn"lHbIH nOKa3aTeJlb B ,Clpyrnx BOCTO"lHOeBpOneHcKHx CTpaHax. 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PYMbLHUR 301 nporpaMMa npHSaTH3aUHH OXSaTblSaeT nsa OCHOSHblX HanpaSJIeHHlI: "6eCnJIaTHOe pacnpeneJIeHHe" 30% aKUHH scex npennpHlITHH, nO,lJ,JIe>KaIJ!HX npHsaTH3aUHH, H "nOCJIenYlOlJ!all npona>Ka" OCTaSWHXClI 70% aKUHH "Iepe3 Ke KaKHM-TO 06pa30M peWaeTClI. TeM He MeHee, BbInOJIHeHHe nporpaMMbl CTaJIKHSaeTCH C pHnOM CJIO>KHbIX np06JIeM, KpaTKHH aHaJIH3 KOTOPblX Mbl MO>KeM ,lJ,aTb B naHHOM pa3JleJIe (6oJIee neTaJIbHblH aHaJIH3 nporpaMMbl npHsaTH3aUHH S PYMblHHH JlaH B pa60Tax Earle & Sapatoru 1993,1994). nepsoe, HeCMOTpll Ha sce06beMJIIOIJ!HH xapaKTep nepe,lJ,a'lH aKUHH B K "Iepe3 Ka CJIY>KHJIa ycnewHblM MeTO,lJ,OM 6blCTPOH npHBaTH3a- 7 UHH. H onblT PYMblHHH - He HCKJIIO'IeHHe. BO-BTOPbIX, nOCKOJIbKY 70% 7 XOTH npeJlnOJIaraJIOCb. "ITO KerOnHO npOJlaSaTb, no KpaHHeH Mepe, no 10% pa3Me- lJ!eHHblX S HHX aKUHH. 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Bo BpeMeHa l.[ayweCKY npeHMYlJ.!eCTBeHHoe pa3BHTHe OTpaCJleH TfI)I(eJlOH npOMblWJleHHOCTH Jle)l(allO B OCHOBe HAeOJlOrn4eC- KOH KOHuen~HH npeBpalJ.!eHHSI PYMblHHH B HHAYCTpHaJlbHO pa3BHT)'IO CTpaHY. H C4HTaJlOCb, 'ITO TaKoe paCnpeAeJleHHe pecypCOB nOAHHMeT 8 KOHKpeTHble np06JleMbi KopnopaTHBHoro ynpaBJleHHSI H HanpaBJle- HHfI AeflTeJlbHOCTH ~OHAOB 4aCTHOH co6CTBeHHOCTH aHaJlH3HpYIOTCfI aBTopaMH B APyrnx pa60Tax, CM. Earle and Sapatoru, 1994. 9 MHHHCTepCTBO npOMblllIJleHHOCTH AO CHX nop nOABOAHT "MaTe- pHaJlbHblH (HaTypaJlbHbIH) 6aJlaHC" H YTBep)l(AaeT HeKOTopble KBOTbl no HCnOJlb30BaHHIO HCT04HHKOB :::lHeprnH. PYMblHUR 303 ee Me)f(JlYHapOLlHbIH aBTOpHTeT H npHHeCeT ::ma4HTeJ1bHble npH6blJ1H OT 3KCnOpTHOH LleHTeJ1bHOCTH. B HacToHlyee BpeMfi B OCHOBe J1e)f(aT 4HCTO n0J1HTH4eCKHe MOTHBbl - CTapble CeKTOpa npHOpHTeTHOrO pa3BHTHfi CTaHOBHTCH c4>epoH, nO,lUlep)f(Ka KOTOPOH - B HHTepeCaX 06J1aLlaIOIJ!HX BJ1aCTblO n0J1HTH4eCKHX KpyrOB. MaKp03KOHOMUt{eCKue meHOeHljUU U MaKp03KOHOMU'I.{eCKaR nOJlUmUKa B 1990 rOll PYMblHHH BCTynHJ1a, HMeH 3Ha4HTeJ1bHbIH BHelllHHH LlOJ1r H nblTaHCb npeOLlOJ1eTb npOLlOJ1)f(aBlllHHCH no KpaHHeH Mepe Y)f(e LlBa rOlla cnaLl B 3KOHOMHKe. naLleHHe 3KOHOMH4eCKHX nOKa3aTeJ1eH B 1990r. 4aCTH4HO MO)f(HO 061>HCHHTb KPH3HCOM CHCTeMbl ueHTpaJ1H30- BaHHoro nJ1aHHpOBaHHH H pa3BaJ10M cTapoH n0J1HTH4eCKO CHCTeMbl. npOBOLlHMble MeponpHHTHH no cOKpalJ!eHHIO BHelllHeH 3aLl0J1)f(eHHOCTH, a TaK)f(e BeLleHHe pHLla npeCTH)f(HbIX HHBeCTHUHOHHblX npoeKToB, nOTpe60BaBlllHx KPynHblx Kam1TaJ10BJ10)f(eHHH npHBeJIH B 80-x IT. K 3Ha4HTeJIbHoMY naLleHHIO )f(H3HeHHoro YPOBHH, H B 1990r. npaBHTeJ1b- CTBO 6blJIO BbIHY)f(JleHO npH6erHYTb K PHLlY nonYJ1HCTCKHX Mep, TaKHX KaK COKpalJ!eHHe pa604eH HeLleJ1H, 4>HHaHcHPyeMbIH rocYLlapCTBoM HMnopT nOTpe6HTeJ1bCKHX TOBapoB, a TaK)f(e HCn0J1b30BaHHe 3J1eKTp03- HeprnH Ha Hy)f(Jlbl HaCeJ1eHHH B YIJ!ep6 npOMbllllJIeHHocTH. B OCHOBe npOLlOJI)f(alOl!lerocfI nOCJ1e 1990r. cnaLla npoH3BoLl- CTBa, no BceH BHLlHMOCTH, J1e)f(HT pHLl npH4HH, B 4HCJ1e KOTOPblX - H MaKp03KoHoMH4ecKHe, H CTPYKTypHble 4>aKTopbl. B LloKYMeHTax 03CP 1993r. oco60e BHHMaHHe 06palJ!aeTCH Ha 3Ha4HTeJ1bHOe nOBblllleHHe !JeH Ha 3JIeKTp03HeprnIO (Bb13BaHHoe pa3BaJIOM C3B) H Ha HX LlBH)f(eHHe K MHPOBOMY ypOBHIO, a TaK)f(e Ha cnaLl npoH3BoLlCTBa 3JIeKTp03HeprHH BHYTpH CTpaHbl H Ha npOLlOJI)f(alOl!leecH ee aLlMHHHcTpaTHBHoe pacnpeLleJIeHHe 4epe3 MHHHcTepCTBo npOMbllllJ1eHHoCTH. 3KoHoMHKa HCnblTaJIa 1ll0K H co CTOPOHbl HMnopTa B CBH3H C POCTOM KOHKypeH!JHH Ha pblHKax TOBapoB J1eCHOH npOMbllllJ1eHHOCTH, TeKCTI1JIbHOii H nl1lJ!eBoH. Haw nOLlC4eT 113MeHeHHH 061>eMa npOH3BOLlcTBa no 25 pa3J1H4Hb1M npOMbllllJ1eHHblM OTpaCJIHM nOKa3bIBaeT, 4TO pa3Mep naLleHHH (B %) 6blJ1 npaKTH4ecKH OLlHHaKOBbIM: CTaHLlapTHoe OTKJ10He- HHe OT cpe)J.Hero 3Ha4eHHH B 1990 r. 6bIJ10 Ha ypOBHe 9.8, ynaB LlO 9.0 B 1991 r. H nOLlHHBlUHCb LlO 11.7 B 1992r.1O KpoMe Toro, :lHaJ1H3HpYH 10 Borensztein, Demekas, Ostry (1993) TaK)f(e He HaxoLlHT 3Ha4HTeJIbHbiX CTPYKTypHblX H3MeHeHHH B PYMbIHCKof! 3KOHOMIIKe, aHlilJIH3I1PYH LlaHHbie 3a 1990 H 1991 rr. 304 5e3pa6omuqa, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbLHOK mpyaa aHHaMHKY H3MeHeHHfl UeH no 3THM OTpacnflM, Mbl 06HapY:lKHBaeM OTCYTCTBHe CBfl3H Me)I(J:IY H3MeHeHHflMH ueH H 06beMOB npOH3BO.llCTBa: B Tel.{eHHe Bcex Tpex neT K03q)(pHUHeHT KoppenRUHH 6bln He3HaI.{H- TenbHblM, a B 19911". .lla:lKe HMen oTpHuaTenbHoe 3Hal.{eHHe. XOTfl B 19931". BblnYCK npoMblwneHHoH npoaYKUHH CTan nOCTeneHHO CTa6HnH- 3HpOBaTbCR, Bonpoc OCTaeTCR OTKpbITbIM: RBnReTCH nH 3Ta TeH.lleHUHH Hal.{anOM "B03pO)l(J:leHHH" 3KOHOMHKH HnH npOCTblM pe3ynbTaToM npoBe.lleHHH MHrKOH 61O.ll:lKeTHOH nonHTHKH, KOTopaR, HanpoTHB, 3aMe.llnHeT CTPYKTypHYIO nepeCTpoHKY H 3KOHOMHI.{eCKHH POCT B .llonrOCpOI.{HOH nepcneKTHBe. Ta6J1H!1a 6-4. OCHoBHble MaKpo3KOHOMHI.{eCKHe nOKa3aTenH TIoKaaaTeJlb 1989 1990 1991 1992 HOll6pb 1993 BBTI TeKytl\He l{eHbI (MJlP~.JleH) 800.0 857.9 2,198.9 5,982.3 - PeaJlbHbIH BHTI 100 92.6 79.9 67.9 Ee3pa6oTHl{a (06lLtall - B TbIC.) 265.9 929.0 1,132.7 YpoBeHb (B Yo) 3.0 8.4 9.9 TIpoMbIWJleHHOe npoH3BollCTBO 100 76.3 58.9 46.0 48.6 HHlleKc l{eH nOTpe6HTeJlll 100 130.6 274.4 851.7 4,009.2' HHlleKc lIeH npoH3BOllHTeJlll 100 126.5 450.1 1.313.1 4,196.6 b TOproBbIH 6aJlaHC (MJlH.S) +2,519.6 -1,720.4 -1,345.0 -938.0 -662.6< 3KcnopT 5.990.1 3,502.7 3.519.8 4,018.6 4,077.9 HMnopT 3,470.5 5,233.1 4,864.8 4.956.6 4,740.5 TIpellJlO'l. TeM He MeHee, H 3Ta nonHTHKa 6b1na HenocnenOBaTenbHoH. 06blYHO B HaYaJ1e Ka)l(J:lorO rona npOBOnHnacb nonHTHKa orpaHHyeHHOrO KpenHTOBaHH.fI. a K KOHUY rona - 60nee cBo6onHoro. TIonHTHKa perynHpoBaHH.Sl BaJ1IOTHOrO Kypca. KOTOPbIH nepHOnHyeCKH npeTepneBan 3HaYHTenbHbie H3MeHeHH.fI, He ynep:lKana OT naneHH.fI ,nOBepH.Sl K neIO. HaKoHey. H ::ITO Haw BblBOn - HeMaJ10Ba:lKHYIO ponb B HHcpn.flYHOHHOM npogecce CbIrpanH cpaKTOpbl pblHKa Tpyna. Bonee Toro. ::ITH cpaKTopbI npHo6peTaIOT Bce 60nbwee 3HayeHHe. TIOyeMY ::ITO TaK, Mbl nonbITaeMC.fI 06b.flCHHTb HH:lKe. 3apa6oTHas nnaTa TeHOeHI./UU U3MeHeHUR cpeoHeiJ 3apa6omHoiJ nrtambl rpadlHK 6-2 naeT HaM npenCTaBneHH.fI 0 Tpex xapaKTepHblX yepTaX nHHaMHKH peanbHOH 3apa6OTHOH nnaTbI B PYMbIHHH. HaYHHa.Sl C 1989r. Bo-nepBblX, nHHaMHKa cpenHeH peanbHOH nOyaCOBOH onnaTbI Tpyna 11 XOT.fI no ocpHgHanbHblM naHHblM necpHgHT rOC6IOn:lKeTa COCTaBHn TonbKO 1% BBTI B 1992 r., paCYeTbl BceMHpHoro 6aHKa, BKnIOyaIOij!He p.fln He6IOn:lKeTHbIX nOKa3aTeneH H yYHTblaaIOI,ijHe B03neHCTBHe HHcpn.flgHH. rOBOp.SlT 0 TOM, YTO "peanbHblH necpH!!HT" 6bln 21,6%. 306 Ee3pa6omU14a, nepecmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U potHOK mpyda 3Ha4HTenbHO OTnH4aeTc~ OT cpeAHeH Mec~4HOH peanbHOH onnaTbl TpYAa BcneACTBHe (KaK Mbl 3TO Y:lKe BbmCHHnH) 3Ha4HTenbHbiX H3MeHeHHH B KOnHqeCTBe oTpa6oTaHHbiX qaCOB. BO-BTOPbIX, pa3HHya HHAeKCOB yeH npOH3BOAHTenR H yeH nOTpe6HTenR 03Ha4aeT, qTO 3BomOYHIO peanbHOH 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl HaAo paCCMaTpHBaTb KaK C TOqKH 3peHH~ npOH3BOAHTenR, TaK H C TOqKH 3peHHR nOKynaTenR, nOCKonbKY 3TH ypOBHH OKa3bIBaIOTC~ pa3nHqHblMH. B-TpeTbHX, Bce npeACTaBneHHble PRAbl AeMOHCTpHPYIOT 3HaqHTenbHbie H perynRpHble Kone6aHHR, HCnblTblBa~ TeHAeHYHIO K nOBblweHHIO B Haqane Ka)KAoro rOAa H TeHAeHYHIO K CHH:lKeHHIO B ero KOHye. B AaHHOM pa3Aene 3MnHpHqeCKHe 3aKOHOMepHOCTH 6YAYT HccneAoBaHbl 60nee nOAPo6HO, a TaK:lKe 6YAeT AaH aHanH3 H3MeHeHHH B 3KOHOMHQeCKOH nonHTHKe. PHCynOK 6-3. KBapTanbHble HHAeKCbl yeH H HHp Ha rpacpl1Ke) B Ha\.faJle Ka)f(~OrO ro~a 11 60JlbWI1M POCTOM \!eH no cpaBHe- HI1IO C 3apnJlaTOH (p>w Ha rpacpl1Ke) B KOH\!e ro~a. O~HaKo Ha OCHOBe 3Toro Ha6J1IO~eHI1.f1 He CTOI1T TeOpeT11311pOBaTb, Bo-nepBbIX, nOTOMY \.fTO pH~bI BO BpeMeHHOM 113MepeHI111 CJlI1WKOM KOPOTKI1 ~JI.fI BbIHeCeHI1.f1 060CHOBaHHblX cy~eHI1H, a BO-BTOPbIX, He06xo~I1MO Y\.fI1TbIBaTb, \.fTO 113MeHeHI1H HanpaBJleHI1H B \!eHOBOH nOJlI1TI1Ke TaK)f(e I1rpaJlO CBOIO POJlb. HeCOMHeHHO O~HO, \.fTO I1HCPJl.fl\!I1H 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl 11 I1HCPJlHYI1.f1 yeH nO~nl1TblBalOT ~pyr ~pyra B I1HCPJlHYl10HHOH cnl1paJlI1. LITO I1HTepeCHO, 11 0 \.feM TaK)f(e CBH~eTeJlbCTByeT rpacpHK, 3TO TO, 4TO TeMnbl pOCTa 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbl 3Ha4HTeJlbHO 60Jlee HenOCTO- HHHbl H H3MeH4HBbI, 4eM I1HCPJlH\!I1H \!eH. 3a HCKJlIO\.feHHeM pe3Koro CKa4Ka HH~eKca yeH np0I13BO~I1TeJl.fl B KOH\!e 1990r., 06a I1H~eKca yeH POCJlI1 ~OCTaT04HO nJlaBHO, no KpaHHeH Mepe no cpaBHeHl110 C nepena~aMI1 B ypOBHHX HOMI1HaJlbHOH 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbl. 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C RHliapll 1993 r'f PPI o:uaTbJueT Kax npOH3Bo;o.,CTBO~ opHeHTHposalmoe n3 8HYTpeHHHH PbIHOK. Tax H «.l 3ICcnopT I HeT ,11,aHHblX OTBOCHTeJ1bHO Ko.'lH"'IeCTBa oTpa6oTatUU,zx: qaCOH 1993 r.o nOlTOMY' Mbl no;o.,C"IHTaJlH nOMeCSNHbJe H3MeReHHJI B 3apa60THoH nRaTe 3a nepHO.ll, C 1992 r. no CeHT.ll6pb 1993 r. H H3MClICHliJl H npOH3BOJf)fTeJlbH()(;TR TPY,1l,a B paC"IeTe Ha O.lUioro pa6oqero. HCTottlunc: eNS R paC"IeThI aBTOpOB. CllO)l(HllaCb COBepWeHHO npOTHBOnOllO)l(Hafl, B OCHOBHOM 3a C'-IeT TOrO, 4TO npOH30WllO 6% naL\eHHe peallbHOH 4aCOBOH 3apnllaTbI nOTpe6H- Tellfl, a CpeL\Hee KOllH4eCTBO oTpa6oTaHHblx 4aCOB H3MeHHllOCb PYMbLHUR 309 He3Hal.UiTellbHO, B pe3YllbTaTe l.fero nOKa3aTellb ULC ynall Ha 11%. B 1992r. peallbHble nOl.faCOBble 3apa60TKH onHTb B03POCllH, XOTH Bcero H Ha 5%, a HH,I:leKC ueH nOTpe6HTellH poc TaKHMH )!(e TeMnaMH KaK H HH,I:leKC UeH npOH3BO,l:lHTellH, B pe3YllbTaTe l.fero ULC nO,l:lHHllHCb Ha 8%. B 1993r. MO)!(HO 6blJlO Ha611IO,I:laTb cOBepUIeHHo npoTHBono- 1l0)!(HYIO KaPTHHY, HH,I:leKC ULC pe3Ko nO,l:lHHllCH Ha 16%, HecMoTpH Ha ,I:lBe npOTHBo,l:leHCTBYlOl,UHe TeH,I:leHUHH: 3Hal.fHTeJlbHOe na,l:leHHe 3apa60THoH nllaTbl nOTpe6HTellH H pOCT npoH3BO,l:lHTellbHoCTH TpY,I:la, cOnpOBO)!():laIOI,UHeCH POCTOM BbmycKa npO,l:lYKUHH H na,l:leHHeM 3aHHTOCTH. 3TH tPaKTOPbl, KOTopble caMH no ce6e cnoc06CTBOBallH 6bl na,l:leHHIO ULC, 6blllH nOllHOCTblO nepeKpblTbl 40%-HbIM ysellHl.feHHeM HH,I:leKCa ueH nOTpe6HTellH OTHOCHTellbHO HH,I:leKCa ueH npOH3BO,l:lHTe- llfl, npaKTHl.feCKH 311HMHHHPYfI paCXO)!(,I:leHHe ,I:lByx HH,I:leKCOB, xapaK- TepHoe ,I:lJ1H npe,l:lbl,l:lYI,UHX Tpex lleT. 3TOT aHallH3 nOMoraeT TaK)!(e 06bflCHHTbHe3Hal.fHTeJlbHOCTb,l:lOllH3apa60THoHnllaT~B,I:l06aBJleH~0H CTOHMOCTH. B 1991-1992("(". cOBoKynHblH tPOH,I:l 3apa60THoH nllaTbl npoMblUIlleHHblx npe,l:lnpHHTHH COCTaBHll 41 % BaJlOBOH YCJlOBHO-l.fHCTOH npO,l:lYKUHH. npH6blllb, Me)!():ly TeM, COCTaBHlla OKOllO 19%. K CO)!(alleHHIO, HeT ,I:lOCTOBepHblx ,I:le3arpernpoBaHHbix ,I:laHHbIX, HO npe,l:lCTaBllfleTcfI flCHbIM, l.fTO 60Jlee BblCOKHH no cpaBHeHHIO C HH,I:leK- COM nOTpe6HTellbCKHX ueH TeMn pOCTa HH,I:leKCa ueH npOH3BO,l:lHTenH HBllHeTCfI, BepOfiTHO, Ba)!(HeHUIHM tPaKTOPOM, n03BOllHIOIJ!HM PYMbIH- CKHM npOH3BO,l:lHTeJlflM nOMep)!(HBaTb nOJlYl.feHHe Onpe,l:lelleHHOro ypOBHH npH6blllH. ECllH OKa)!(eTCH, l.fTO B 1993r. npOH30H):leT na,l:leHHe npH6bllleH, TO 3TO 6Y,I:leT XOpOUIHM nO,l:lTBep)!():leHHeM HaweH rHnOTe3bl ( K CO)!(alleHHIO ,I:lO CHX nop 3TH ,I:laHHble He ony611HKoBaHbl). BblweH3JlO- )!(eHHbIH MaTepHall nO,l:lBO,l:lHT Hac TaK)!(e K Clle,l:lylOIJ!eMY BbIBO,l:ly, l.fTO nO,l:lOXO,l:lHble HallorH B Kal.feCTBe O,l:lHOrO H3 Ba)!(HeHUlHX HCTOl.fHHKOB nOllYl.feHHfI ,I:lOXO,l:lOB B rOC6IO,I:l)!(eTe, MOryT TepflTb CBoe 3Hal.feHHe npH na,l:leHHH HH,I:leKCa !,leH npOH3BO,l:lHTellfi OTHOCHTellbHO HH,I:leKCa !,leH 13 nOTpe6HTeJlH. TeM He MeHee, Mbl YTBep)!(,I:laeM, l.fTO CO CTOpOH~ 3apnJlaTbl ,I:lllH npOH3BO,l:lHTeJleH caMblM U10KOBbIM rO,l:lOM OKa3allCH TOJlbKO 1990r., Kor,l:la pa60l.fHM Y,I:lallOCb ,I:l06HTbCH YBellHl.feHHH HX peallbHOH nOl.faCO- BOH 3apa60THOH nllaTbl Ha 25%. 50Jlee 6blCTPblA TeMn pOCTa !,leH npOH3BO,l:lHTelleH B 1990r., 1991r. H B KaKoH-To CTeneHH B 1992r.03Ha- 13 50JlbUlaH l.faCTb npH6b111eH PYMblHCKHX npe,l:lnpHHTHH MO)!(eT OKa3aTbCH HllJ1l030PHOH, eCJlH npHHHTb BO BHHMaHHe HHtPJlH!,lHOHHble TeH,I:leH!,lHH. CM. OECD, 1993. 310 5e3pa6omutta, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbtHOK mpyiJa 4aJI, "ITO peaJIbHafl 3apa60THafl nJIaTa pa604HX MOrJIa 6bITb Y,l:lep:lKaHa OT na,l:leHHfl npH C,l:lep:lKHBaHHH pOCTa peaJIbHblX H3,l:lep:lKeK npOH3BO,l:lH- TeJIeH Ha pa604YIO CHJIY, "ITO, B CBOIO 04epe,l:lb, He ,l:laJIO pa3BHTbCfl npOTHBOCTOflHHIO Me:lKAY 3apa60THOH nJIaTOH, npH6blJIblO H 3aHfl- TOCTblO. O,l:lHaKO HaM Ka:lKeTCfl MaJIOBepO.!ITHbIM, "ITO TaKOH 3Ha4HTeJIb- HblH pa3pblB Me:lKAY ypOBH.!IMH 3apnJIaT C T04KH 3peHHfl nOTpe6JIeHH.!I H npOH3BO,l:lCTBa MO:lKeT nOAAep:lKHBaTbC.!I B Te4eHHe AJIHTeJIbHOrO BpeMeHH, H HaM npe,l:lCTaBJIfleTC.!I, "ITO 60JIee 6blCTPblH POCT HH,l:leKca UeH nOTpe6HTemI no cpaBHeHHIO C POCTOM HH,l:leKCa yeH npOH3BO,l:lH- TeJI.!I B 1993r. npe,l:lBel!!aeT "Ha4aJIO KOHya". 50Pb6a 3a "pa3,l:leJI nHpora", OTJIO:lKeHHafl B PYMblHHH Ha HeCKOJIbKO JIeT, B03MO:lKHO 14 Ha4HeTC.!I Y:lKe ceH4ac. JlO.llUmUKa pezY.llupo6aHWl ::Japa60mHOU n.llambi U UHcmumYttUOHa.llbHbie U3MeHeHUH KOHTPOJIb Ha,l:l OnJIaTOH TpY,l:la 6blJI O,l:lHHM H3 OCHOBHblX HanpaBJIemlH rOCY,l:lapCTBeHHOH 3KOHOMH4eCKOH nOJIHTHKH B PYMblHHH H npepora- THBOH ee ueHTpaJIbHblX opraHOB BJIaCTH. MHorne xapaKTepHble ):\JI~ CTapOH CHCTeMbl 4epTbl ynpaBJIeHHfl 3aHflTOCTblO H MexaHH3Ma YCTaHOBJIeHHfl 3apa6oTHOH nJIaTbl 6blJIH HHBeJIHpOBaHbl B Ha4aJIe 1990r. 0POH30WJIO nOBblweHHe ypOBHeH 3apa6oTHblX nJIaT, ee BbmJIaTbl 60JIee He npHB.!I3bIBaJIHCb no cpOKaM K BblnOJIHeHHIO pa60Tbl, 6blJIH CHflTbl Tpe60BaHHfl, npe,l:lbflBJIlIeMble K pa604HM npH peweHHH BonpOCOB 0 npO,l:lBH:lKeHHH no cJIY:lK6e, pacnpe,l:leJIeHHH npeMHH, CMeHe MeCTa pa6oTbl, ,l:lOJIrOBble pacnHCKH pa604Hx 6blJIH noraweHbl. He- ,l:leJIbHafl npO,l:lOJI:lKHTeJIbHOCTb pa60Tbl 6blJIa COKpal!!eHa C 46 4aCOB ,l:l0 40, a MeC1I4Hble 3apnJlaTbi He H3MeHHJlHCb. Pe3KHH pOCT 3apa6oT- HblX nJlaT H O,l:lHOBpeMeHHoe COKpal!!eHHe npOH3BO,l:lHTeJIbHOCTH TpY,l:la, nOCJle,l:lOBaBWHe 3a 4aCTH4HOH JlH6epaJIH3aYHeH H COKpal!!eHHeM KOJIH4eCTBa oTpa60TaHHblX 4aCOB, 3aCTaBHJlH npaBHTeJlbCTBO BHOBb BBeCTH KOHTPOJIb 3a ypOBHeM 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl B anpeJle 1990r. 11 XOTlI npe,l:lnpHlITHlI B KaKOH-T8 CTeneHH HaY4HJIHCb YXO,l:lHTb OT nora KOHTPOJlfl, HM He Y,l:laJlOCb nOAAep:lKaTb ,l:laJIbHeHWHH pOCT 3apnJlaTbl, H B KOHUe rO,l:la npOH30WJIO 061!!ee 3aMOpa:lKHBaHHe 3apa6oTHblX nJIaT. 14 HawH npe,l:lbl,l:lYI!!He pa60Tbi (Earle and Oprescu, 1993a,b) CO,l:lep:lKaT 60Jlee ,l:leTaJlbHblH aHaJlH3 KaK npe,l:lpecpopMeHHoro ypOBHfl 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl npe,l:lpecpopMeHHoro YPOBH.!I 3apa6OTHoH nJIaTbl H nOBe,tleHH.!I 3aHlITOCTH, TaK H COOTBeTCTBYlOl!!HX HHCTHTYUHOHaJlbHblX H3MeHeHHH. PYMbIHUR 311 HOBblH 3aKOH 0 3apa60THOH nJlaTe 14/1991, npHH.RTbIH B ¢eBpaJle 1991 r., ¢OpMaJlbHO npHBeJl K )lelJeHTpaJlH3alJHH MexaHH3Ma YCTaHOBJleHH.R 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl, nepe)laBa.R BceM KOMMepl..JeCKHM rOCY)lapCTBeHHbIM H l..JaCTHblM KOMnaHH.RM, a TaK)Ke 60JlbWeH l..JaCTH npe)lnpH.RTHH, He OXBal..JeHHblX npOlJeCCOM npHBaTH3alJHH, npaBO aBTOHOMHO onpe)leJlJITb YPOBeHb BbInJlal..JHBaeMOH 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl nOcpe)lCTBOM 3aKJllOI..JeHHJI KOJlJleKTHBHblX HJlH HH)lHBH)lyaJlbHbIX COrJlalUeHHH Me)KJlY HaHHMaTeJlJIMH H pa60I..JHMH. KpOMe Toro, 3aKOH )laJl npaBO npaBHTeJlbCTBY pery JlHpOBaTb YCTaHOBJleHHe 3apa60THblX nJlaT Ha rOCY)lapCTBeHHbIX npe)lnpHJITHJIX H B 61O)l)KeTHO-¢HHaHCOBbIX Y'-Ipe)KJleHHJIX, npe)lBH)lJI B03MO)f(HOCTb (nOCJle nOJlYl..JeHHJI nOJlHOH CB060)lbI) nO)l'beMa 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl Ha Hepa3YMHO BblCOKHH ypOBeHb. O)lHOBpeMeHHO 3aKOH pa3pewaeT npaBHTeJlbCTBY BBO)lHTb HH)leKcalJHIO H peryJlHpOBaTb ypOBeHb KOMneHcalJHOHHblX BbJnJlaT, npe)lHa3Hal..JeHHblX )lJlJI B03MelJ!eHHJI O)KH)laeMOrO na)leHHJI peaJlbHOH 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl BCJle)lCTBHe HH¢JlJIlJHH. ,[taJlee B pa3)leJle Mbl paCCMOTpHM HOBbIe HHCTHTYlJHOHaJlbHble CTPYKTYPbl, B paMKax KOTOPblX OCYllleCTBJlJIeTCJI 3aKJllOI..JeHHe KOJlJleKTHBHblX )lOrOBOpOB, YCTaHaBJlHBaeTCJI pa3Mep MI1HHMaJlbHOH 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl, a TaK)Ke 06pl1cyeM npaBHTeJlbCTBeHHYIO npaKTI1KY YCTaHOBJleHHJI KOMneHca- lJI10HHbiX BbInJlaT 11 cnelJl1¢I1KY nOJlI1THKH )lOXO)lOB B 1991-93 rr. (pa3)leJlbHO no ro)laM). npO¢COI03HOe )lBI1)f(eHl1e B PYMblHl111 )lOCTaTOI..JHO lUHPOKO pacnpoCTpaHeHO, XOTJI MaclUTa6bl OXBaTa HM pa60TalOIJ!HX 3HaI..JH- TeJlbHO npeyaeJll1l..JHBalOTCJI B 3aJIBJleHI1p.x JlI1)lepOB npo¢coI030B. TaK, eCJlH npl1)lep)f(HBaTbC.R )laHHbIX Bcex npo¢colO3HblX KOH¢e)lepalJHH 06 HX I..JHCJleHHOM COCTaBe, TO 3T0 KOJlHl..JeCTBO npeBblCI1T Bce TpY)lOCno- c06Hoe HaCeJleHHe PYMbIHHH. no OlJeHKaM, OCHOBaHHblM Ha pe3YJlbTa- Tax nepenHCH HaCeJleHHJI 1991 r. (XOTJI OHa H He 6blJla nOJlHOH), npH6Jll13HTeJlbHO 60% Bcex 3aHJITbiX 6blJlO OXBal..JeHO npo¢colO3HblM )lBI1)f(eHl1eM. Yl..JaCTl1e B 3aKJllOI..JeHI1H KOJlJleKTI1BHblX )lOrOBOpoB 60JIee pacnpocTpaHeHo, l..JeM HenOCpe)lCTBeHHoe I..JJleHCTBO B npo¢coI03ax, I..JTO XOPOlUO BH)lHO 113 Ta6Jl.6-6. Onpoc rocY)lapCTBeHHblx npe)lnpl1JITHH B oKTJI6pe 199Zr. nOKa3aJI, I..JTO 60Jlee 90% HX I..JI1CJla I1CnOJlb3YIOT npaKTHKY 3aKJllOI..JeHI1JI KOJIJIeKTI1BHblX )lorOBopoB. npO¢COlO3bl npaKTHl..JeCKI1 He ¢YHKlJI10HI1PYIOT B l..JaCTHOM ceKTope, XOTJI pa3BHBalO- IJ!l1ikJI npolJecc npl1BaTH3alJI111 11 POCT 6e3pa60TI1lJbl BnOJlHe MO)f(eT OKa3aTb onpe)leJleHHOe B03)leHCTBl1e Ha aKTI1BI13alJI11O I1X )leJITeJlbHOC- TH, Ha paClUl1peHHe MaCWTa60B npO¢COlO3Horo )lBI1)KeHI1JI. AnoKa, HanpoTHB, Ha6JlIO)laeTCJI on'OK pa60I..JHX H3 npO¢COI03HbIX opraHH3a- lJl1H B MalUHHOCTpOeHl1l1, XHMl1l..JeCKOH 11 MeTaJIJIyprHl..JeCKOH OTpaCJIJIx. 312 Ee3pa6omul..ja, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa Ta6J1Hua 6-6. PacnpoCTpaHeHHe KonneKTHBHblX !lorOBopoB, OKT. 1992. OTpacnb KOJIH'IeCTBO .r:lonR B npo- pa60'lHX qeHTax CenbcKoe xo:uliicTBO 532,281 95.08 BCR npoMblUIneHHOCTb 2.949.294 96.07 .r:lo6b1SalOlqaR 303,421 99.99 YroJIbHaR 121,488 100.00 He4>Te- H raao,tlo6b1'1a 83.378 100.00 Paapa60TKa pa,tlHOaKTHSHbiX MHHepaJIOB 7,510 100.00 .r:lo6b1'1a py.tl '1epHblX H qBeTHbix MeTanJIOS 65.735 100.00 .r:lo6b1'1a HeMeTaJIJIH'IecKOro CblpbR 25.310 99.90 06pa6aTbiBalOlqaR 2.645.873 95.62 nHlqeBaR 254.964 97.72 TeKCTHJIbHaR 521.351 88.11 06YUHaR 93.824 94.60 .r:lepeBoo6pa6aTbiBalOlqaR 79,491 98.80 l.J;eJIJIIOJIOaHo-6YMalf(Hall H nOJIHrpa4>H'IeCKaR 51.547 93.49 Heap4>opo-4>aRHcoBaR 141,757 98.00 ~eTanJIyprH'IeCKaR 184.405 99.90 ~eTaJIJIo6pa60TKa 142,802 97.50 ~aUIHHoCTpoeHHe H 06oPYAoBaHHe 413.168 97.50 3neKTpH'IecKoe H OnTH'IeCKOe o6opy,tloBaHHe 144.533 94.11 T paHcnopTHoe MaUIHHOCTpoeHHe 223,810 99.84 .r:lpyrne OTpaCJIH o6pa6aTbiSalOlqeii npOMblUIJIeHHOCTH 153,041 94.15 429,708 95.40 ToproBJIII 398,880 92.53 TpaHcnopT 441,519 97.32 TeJIeKOMMyHHKaqHII 92.669 97.50 06paaosaHHe H HaYKa 486.878 74.05 3,t1paBooxpaHeHHe 303.163 68.30 YnpaBJIeH'IeCKHH annapaT 128,543 24.70 BCII 3KOHOMHKa 6.174,150 90.80 '£'1110 II c.nY:....llll. rOCY.P,apcnOHHWJ; npe)ljlPlilITlli. P£TIIIOIlIHO I COOTJeTCT.HH (;' KOJ'U1tKTaBHhlMH Jl.orolOpaMII. HcTo'lllIlX' eNS. PYMbtHUR 313 B HOBOH, nOCTO.llHHO MeH.IlIOJ,YeHC.Il HHCTHT)'UHOHaJ1bHOH Cpe):le TPY):lHO oyeHHTb CTeneHb yeHTpaJ1H3aYHH npoyecca 3aKJ1lOqeHH.Il KOJ1J1eKTHBHbIX ):lOrOBOpOB. DOCKOJ1bKY):lJlfl yqpe)l(,l:leHHfI npmpCOlO3HOH OpraHH3aYHH ):lOCTaTOqHO 6blJ10 He3HaqHTeJ1bHoro KOJ1HqeCTBa qJ1eHOB, B 1991r. 6blJ1H C03):laHbl TblCflQH OpraHH3aYHH pa60QHX. O):lHaKO TOJ1bKO HeKOTOpblM H3 HHX Y):laJ10Cb 3HaQHTeJ1bHO YKpenHTb CBOH n03HYHH. 113 20 aKTHBHO KHble J1H):lepbl npoKeHHfI. B COOTBeTCTBHH C npe):loCTaBJ1eHHbIMH HMH CBe):leHHflMH 0 QHCJ1eHHOCTH HX opraHH3aYHH CNSLR (HaYHoHaJ1bHafl KOHpaTHa - 1 MJ1H., BNS (KoHpaTHa - npHBeJ10 K C03):laHHIO "cynepKoHKHO onpe):leJ1HTb peaJ1bHYIO CHJ1Y npoKeHHfI. TeM He MeHee, Mbl CQHTaeM, QTO He TOJIbKO nOJ1HTHKa yeH, HO H BpeMeHHble paMKH npOBe):leHH.Il KOJ1J1eKTHBHblxneperOBopOB OKa3bIBaJOT onpe):leJIeHHOe B03):leHCTBHe Ha HHK):lorO rO):la, H,COOTBeTCTBeHHo,Tpe6yeTC.Il onpe):leJ1eHHOe BpeM.Il, QTo6bl pe3YJ1b- TaTbI 6blJ1H cnYlJ!eHbl ):l0 ypOBHH xo ,n,rur yqpe;c,n:eHHH, HaXO,n;lI.UHXCi' H3 roc61O,ll)Kere, nepCOHaJIbHble OXJlW>1 b. eM. 3axOH 0. 3apnn3r8X, OKTH6pL 1991 c. KOHen Mapra d. liToro: 6S% eM. JaKOH 0 3apnnaTax e. AW = cpe,;ur1flI 3apa6oTHaJI' OJIaTa r. JJ.JUI peuTa6eJ1bflLIX npe.n,npHnHH J.iCTO'iHHX! IIpaBHTenhCTBeHHLle yxalbl 110911990, 21911991, 57911991, 78011991, 120/19926 14911992. 21811992, 7741192, 94/1993, 124/1993. 17711993, 29911993. B 1992r. CHCTeMa YCTaHOBneHHH OrpaHHl.JeHHH Ha pa3Mepbl 3apa60THOH nnaTbl no OTllenbHblM KaTeropHHM pa60I.JHX 6blna aaMeHeHa BBelleHHeM "nOTonKa" Ha KHbIH npouecc, a KOHKpeTHaH ero BenHI.JHHa PYMblHUR 317 TaK)I(e nepHO,[U1'-1eCKH nepeCMaTpHBanaCb. npennpHflTHflM, paCWHpfllO- IUHM CBoe npOH3BOnCTBO, 6blno pa3peweHo YBenH'-IHBaTb ¢OHn 3apa60THOH nnaTbl B COOTBeTCTBHH C KonH4eCTBOM HaHHMaeMblX HOBblX pa60'-lHX; TaKHM 06pa30M, Ha npaKTHKe cKopee oCYIUeCTBnfl- naCb nonHTHKa perynHpoBaHHfI cpenHei1 3apa60THoH nnaTbl, '-IeM nonHTHKa orpaHH'-IeHHfI pOCTa ¢OHna onnaTbl Tpyna. JlonYCKanHCb TaK)I(e H npyrHe HCKnlO'-IeHI1f1, HO OHI1 He 6blnl1 CTonb CYlijeCTBeHHbl. IlITpa¢Hble CaHK!!HH CTanH 60nee CTpornMH, 3a npeBblweHHe ¢OHna 3apa60THOH nnaTbl 60nee '-IeM Ha 20% OT HOPMbl Mor 6blTb B3blCKaH Hanor B pa3Mepe no 500%, XOTfi no I1cnonHeHHfI TaKHe peweHHfI nOBOnHnHCb He Bcerna. B03MO)l(HbiM CTano TaK)I(e COXpaHeHl1e HeHcnonb30BaHHOH '-IaCTH ¢OHna H npH6aBneHHe ee K 6y~eMY nepHony. B Ha'-lane 1993 r. npaKTH4eCKI1 He npOBOnl1nOCb HHKaKOH nOnHTI1KH perynHpoBaHHfl3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl, H npO¢C0103bl n06HnHCb 3Ha4HTenbHoro nOBbIWeHI1f1 ee ypOBHfI. npHHflTafi B Mae 1993 r. HOBafi CTpaTernfi B o6naCTH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl no cYlJ!eCTBY CBenaCb K onpeneneHHIO ee cpenHero 3Ha4eHHR, nocKonbKY HOPMbl nOnC4HTbl- BanHCb npH nOMolJ!H neneHHR ¢oHna 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbl Ha KonH4ec- TBO 3aHRTbiX Ha npennpl1RTHH. Hanorn, OnHaKO, npHBR3blBanHcb K '-Ipe3MepHoMY POCTY ¢oHna 3apa60THoH nnaTbl npH6nH3HTenbHo no TOH )l(e cxeMe, '-ITO H B 1992r., a pa3Mep ¢OHna Mor 6blTb YBenl14eH npH nOCTH)I(eHHH onpeneneHHblX pe3ynbTaToB B 06naCTI1 nOBblweHHfI nonY4aeMOH npH6blnH HnH 3¢¢eKTHBHOCTH. BblnOnHRnaCb nH CTpaTernR B 06naCTI1 3apa6OTHOH nnaTbl Ha npaKTHKe? MHHHCTepCTBO ¢HHaHCOB YTBep)I(.QaeT, '-ITO "na", OnHaKO OTKa3bIBaeTCR npenOCTaBHTb KaKl1e 6bl TO HH 6blno CBeneHHR OTHOCH- TenbHO CYMMbl peanbHO Bblnna'-leHHblX WTpa¢OB. TaKHe CBeneHHR HaM ynanocb nonY'-IHTb B Ha!!HOHanbHOM KOMHTeTe no CTaTHCTHKe, OnHaKO OHH nOCTaTO'-lHO TpHBHanbHbl. CornaCHO 3THM naHHbiM. rocy.r:tapCTBeH- Hble y6blTO'-lHble npennpHRTHR, He OXBa4eHHbie npO!!eCCOM npHBaTH- 3a!!HH, 3annaTHnH 3.6% OT ¢OHna HX 3apa60THoH nnaTbl B nepBoH nonOBHHe 1991r. H 0.8% BO BTOpOH nonOBHHe rona, peHTa6enbHbie rocynapcTBeHHble npennpl1RTHR 3annaTHnH COOTBeTCTBeHHO 1.1% H 0.5%. B nepBoH nonOBHHe 1992r. MO)l(HO 6blno Ha6nlOnaTb cxOnHYIO KapTHHY - wTpa¢bl, Bblnna'-leHHble y6bITO'-lHbIMH npennpHRTHRMH, COCTaBHnH 0,8% HX o61J!ero ¢oHna 3apa60THoH nnaTbl; a wTpa¢bl pel-!Ta6enbHbix - COOTBeTCTBeHHO 0,1%. K CO)l(aneHI11O, HeT arpernpo- BaHHblX naHHblX no BTOPOH nOnOBI1He rona, OnHaKO B Hanl14He HMelOTCfI .r:taHHble no OT.r:tenbHbiM oTpacnRM. OTpaCnl1, CBR3aHHbie C nepepa6OT- KOH yrnR, HetPTl1, R.r:tepHoro TOnnl1Ba, np0l13BOnCTBOM pa3nl14HbiX 318 Be3pa6omu/la, nepecmpOUKa 3KOI-IOMUKU U PlXl-IOI( mpyoa XHMHtIeCKHX TOBapOB, 3anJIaTHJIH WTpaoJ;\o6b1'1a 120 132 153 192 06pa6aTbiBalO~all 93 94 93 91 MawHHocTpoelfHe H o6opYJ;\ollaHHe 97 96 95 97 MeTaJlJlyprH'IecKall 108 113 115 123 XHMH'lecKall 99 112 119 110 ITPOH:>IIOACTBO cTpOHTeJlbHblX MaTepHaJlOB 92 98 99 93 JIecHall 82 87 87 81 JIerKall 84 81 71 69 ITH~eBall. Ta6a'lHall 88 99 99 90 KOMMYHaJlbHblecJly~bI 114 136 152 153 CeJlbCKOe XO:>lIHCTIIO 104 89 83 80 CTpOHTeJlbCTIIO 112 107 106 106 TpaHcnopT 117 119 127 113 TOprOIlJlll 77 91 87 73 OTeJlH H pecTopaHbI 78 77 71 77 06pa:>oBaHHe 89 99 92 75 3J;\pallooxpaHeHHe 92 106 97 89 YnpaBJleH'lecKHH annapaT 119 115 103 93 CTaHJ;\apTHoe OTKJlOHeHHe no OTpaCJ1l1M 15.81 20.57 26.40 33.59 HCTOtDUU/;: HaUHOHaJ1LHLIU J(OMUTeT no CT3TUCTHxe. paCGCTLI aBTOpOB. 320 Be3pa6omut5a, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyda Yf3-3a HeCOnOCTaBHMOCTH JlaHHblX Ta6JI.6-8 C 60JIbUleR lIaCTblO HaUleR HH¢opMaYHH, Mbl MOiKeM CJleJIaTb TOJIbKO HeKoTopble 061J.lHe 3MnHpHlIeCKHe BblBOJlbl no MeiKOTpaCJIeBblM pa3JIHlIHlIM B 3apa60THoR nJIaTe. Bo-nepBbIX, lICHO, '"ITO 3apnJIaTa B OTpaCJI11X 6blBUlero npHOpHTeTHOrO pa3BHTHlI H B nepeXOJlHblR nepHOJl npOJlOJIiKaJIa OCTaBaTbClI Ha OTHOCHTeJIbHO BblCOKOM ypOBHe, npH'"IeM pa3pblB C JlPyn1MH OTpaCJIlIMH JlaiKe YBeJIH'"IHJIClI. BO-BTOPbIX, OTpaCJIH, JlJIlI KOTOPblX xapaKTepeH BblCOKHR ypOBeHb 3apnJIaT H HX pOCTa, 06'beJlHHlIIOT B nepBYIO O'"lepeJlb Te rOCYJlapCTBeHHble npeJlnpHlI- THlI-rnraHTbl, KOTopble OKa3aJIHCb HeOXBa'"leHHbIMH npoyeccoM npHBaTH3aWiH (B ropHoJl06bIBalOIJ!eR npoMblUlJIeHHOCTH, KOMMYHaJIbHbIX cJIYiK6ax, Ha TpaHcnopTe). HaM YJlaJIOCb nOJIY'"IHTb HH¢opMaYHIO 0 cpeJlHHx 3apa60TKax Ha rocYJlapCTBeHHblx npeJlnpHlITHlIX H cpaBHHTb HX ypoBeHb C ypoBHeM 3apa60THoR nJIaTbl Ha KOMMepllecKHx npeJlnpH- flTHflX (cM.Ta6JI.6-9). J1 OKa3aJIOCb, lITO YCHJIHlI nOCJIeJlHHX no CJlepiKHBaHHIO peaJIbHOH naJleHHS 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl OKa3aJIHCb 20 ropa3JlO MeHee ycneUlHbIMH. Ta6lJHua 6-9. CpeJlH.R.R 3apa60THa.R nJIaTa Ha npeJlnpHflTH.RX pa3JIH'"I-' HOH ¢OPMbl c06cTBeHHoCTH, 1991, 1992 IT. KaTeropHfI 4:HcTafi cpep.HfIfi 4:HcTafi cpe,llHfIfi I1H,IleKc peanbHoH a/nnaTa. OKTfl6pb a/nnaTa.ceH- a/nnaTbi. OKTR- 1991(B neflx) Tfl6pb 1992 (B 6pb 1991-ceH- neRx) TR6pb 1992 (B X) B l.\enOM no PYMblHHH 9.824 23,306 88,54 npe,llnpHflTHfi regii autonome 13.382 34,204 95.41 KOMMep'leCKHe npe,llnpHflTHR 10.472 21.722 77.42 ElO,IllKeTHbie OpraJlHaal.\HH 9,829 22,401 85.07 TIpHMeqaHHe: HH,llt!KC u.eH nOTpe6HTeJUI B UHT1IOpe 1992 no OTHomemno k OkTSl6plO Jm = 261,9~. HCTO'IHH'X: MHHHCTePCTBO TPYJlA H COIJ;HaJlLKoro o6e:cncttcRKJI. 20 )lJI.R HaC OCTalJCfI OTKpbITblM Bonpoc, nO'"leMY cpeJlHfIfI 3apa60T- Hafl nlJaTa B UelJOM no BceMY HapOJlHOMY X03f1HCTBY B 1991 r. OKa3aJIaCb HHiKe. '"IeM Ha peHTa6eJIbHbiX rocYJlapCTBeHHblx npeJlnpHfIT- HflX. Mbl npHBelJH 3TH JlaHHbie B Ka'"leCTBe HlJlJlOCTpaYHH pa3pblBa MeiKJlY ypOBHflMH 3apa60THbiX nJIaT. He 06pay!all oc060ro BHHMaHHfI Ha TOllHbie ¢aKTH'"IeCKHe 3HalleHHfI. )lJIfI Hac npeJlCTaBlJfleTCfI BaiKHblM TOT MOMeHT, liTO MHorne rocnpeJlnpHflTHfI TfliKelJOH npOMblUllJeHHOCTH OCYl!!.eCTBlJfllJH 3Ha'"lHTelJbHble JlOnOJIHHTelJbHble BblnlJaTbl, TeM caMblM yrJIy6lJfIfI pa3pblB B ypOBHflX 3apa6OTHbiX nlJaT. PYMblHUR 321 B-TPeTbHX, npe.!lCTaBJlj:leTCH, "ITO ypOBHH 3apa60THOH nJlaTbI H TeMnbI HX pOCTa 3aBHCRT TaK)Ke OT CHJlbI npoeccHoHanbHble KaTeropHH Regii ~oMMep"ec- DIOAlKeT- rt o Auton- IKHe npeA- Hble opra- ~ceH orne !npHSlTHli HH3a~HH 3KOHO- MHKe Pa60'lHe KBanHHl~HpoBaHHble 50 26 17 31 HeKBaJlHH~HpoBaHHble 64 48 30 51 Cne~HanHCTbI BblnycKHHKH YHHsepcHTeToB 40 19 20 28 BblnycKHHKH nH~ees H J:lp.clle~.yqe6HblX 3aseAeHHH CneQHaJlHCTbI 38 30 22 32 Aj:l,MHHHcTpaTHBHble pa60THHKH 42 42 30 42 HHlKeHepHo-TeXHHQeCKHe pa60THHKH 50 26 19 30 TexHHKH. MacTepa 73 58 31 61 YllpaSneHQeCKHH llepCOHan Ha ypoBHe KOMllaHHH 54 49 37 41 Ha ypoBHe aAMHHHCTpaTHBHblx opraHoB 50 38 34 49 a. 8 cooneTCTBHlI c G.O. 12711991. HCTOiUlHX: eNS H paCf..ICTbI 8BTOPOB. TaKoe nOJlO:lKeHl1e CBI1J.\eTeJlbCTByeT 0 TOM, 4TO nOJlI1TI1Ka peryJll1pOBaHI1J1 3apa6oTHOH nnaTbl He TOJlbKO cJla60 np"BOJ.\IJlaCb B I1CnOJlHeHl1e, no KpaAHeA Mepe B 1991r., HO 11 CTeneHb 06J13aTeJlbHOC- PYMbLHUR 323 TH ee HCnOJIHeHHJl pa3JIH"laJIaCb no OTaeJIbHblM CeKTOpaM, aaBaJl npeHMYJ,I!eCTBO onpeaeJIeHHblM OTpaCJIJlM. DpeaCTaBJIJleTCJl, "lTO nOJIyt.tHJIa pacnpOCTpaHeHHe TaKaJl MOaeJIb pa3BHTHJl, npH KOTOPOH OTpaCJIH, JIHaHpYJOI,YHe B 06JIaCTH 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl, nepHOaH"leCKH nOaHHMaJIH ee ypOBeHb, 4T0 npHBOaHJIO K aaJIbHeHweMY POCTY ypOBHJl !.1eH H K nOBblweHHIO 3apa60THblX nJIaT B apyrnx OTpaCJIJlX. I1HTepecHO, "lTO JIHaepCTBO B 06JIaCTH 3apa6OTHOH nJIaTbl COBceM He 03Ha"laJIO, "lTO 3TH npeanpH.fITHJl JlBJIJlIOTC.fI JIHaepaMH CTPYKTYPHOH nepeCTpoHKH. 06 3TOM .fICHO rOBOpJlT nOKa3aTeJIH COOTHOWeHH.fI 3aH.fITOCTH Ha HHX H H3MeHeHHH B 06"eMe BbmycKaeMoH npOaYK!.1HH. Mbl BepHeMC.fI K 3TOMY Bonpocy B CJIeaYJOij!eM pa3aeJIe. ;::{HHaMHKa 3aHHTOCTH H TeKYQeCTb pa60QeH CHJIbI Ha"lHHa.fl C 1989r. MO)l(HO Ha6J1lOaaTb 3Ha"lHTeJIbHbie H3MeHeHH.fI B CTpYKType 3aH.fITOCTH, Ta6JIH!.1a 6-11 ae3arpernpyeT 3TH H3MeHeHHJl no rocyaapCTBeHHOMY ceKTOPY, no "laCTHOMY ceKTOpy H KoonepaTH- BaM C pa36poCOM no OTaeJIbHblM OTpaCJI.fIM. AaHHbie CBHaeTeJIbCTBYJOT o TOM, "lTO Ha rocyaapCTBeHHblX npeanpHJlTH.fIX, B "nceBaOKoonepa- THBax" H B npOMblWJIeHHOCTH npOHCXOaHJIO COKpalJ.!eHHe 3aH.fITOCTH, B TO BpeM.fI KaK B "laCTHOM ceKTope, TOprOBJIe H cIfHaHCOBLlt HHCTKryn.I, 6aHKH H 35.3 35.3 0.0 0.0 43,8 43.8 0.0 0.0 49.1 49.1 0.0 0.0 51,1 51.3 0.0 5.8 CTpax.OBLIt KOMllaffHH YnpsMeHHe xa rocY,IJ,SpCT.BeHHOM 53.8 SO.2 0.0 3.6 61.9 64.5 0.0 3.4 83.2 19.3 0.0 3.9 112,1 108.6 0.0 4,1 YPoBHe IlpHMcl{aHHe: HCKOTOPLlC OTpaCJ1H 6LHIH nponYLQeHbl HJ-38 npo5neM 00 cr8THcTHKOH. HatfHHaJI C 1m r.~ KoonepaTlJSbl B npOMbflILTletlHt"lGTH H TOpr08J1e Y'{ltTblB8lOTClI "ax. npe,Jl,uplUITlUJ rOCUKTopa. HCTO!.{}ntK: HaIJ,HOHaJJbHbIH KOMHTeT flO. CTaTHCT"Ke (eNS). Ta6nHy,a 6-12. TeKY4eCTb pa604Hx Ha rocynapcTBeHHblx npoMblUlneHHblx npennpH.fITH.fIX, 1982 H 1987-92 IT. nepeMeHHble 1982 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 06w.ee KOJlH"IeCTBO YBOJlbHeHHH B npoM-cTH 481.488 474,313 410,480 399,535 688,531 495,282 484.461 YpoBeHb YBOJlbHeHHii. Yo 17.95 17.09 15.16 14.50 24.30 17.60 18.39 YpoBeHb YSOJlbHeHHH no HHH~HaTHBe IX yso- YBonLHeHHH Jlt:.HbIX HHH DO OTpaCll. Ha 1 JIH- TOCTH (B %) JlbHe- HHH~HaTH- YBMb' I1LHeHHK B B CB.llH C Y8OJlLHe- JlpyrHN eapa • %) HHH .. npe,ll' HtHHH (8 tUl" co BLI6LlTHeM HHi no nplAHHaN (B %) np • .,.. . (B %) CMeHOH Hl c.ocraBa JlpyrHN (B %) %) MetTa pa~ paoo'leif nplf'lHIUM 60Thl (B %) C8J1'" (B %) (B %) Be. np0Ml>UIlJteHHtXTL" 3,027,478 -12.51 5.18 17.69 7.27 6.83 1.66 4.57 0.60 3.59 JJ;06"'BalOll(aJ[ 279,024 -3.18 13.17 16.35 5.14 6.33 1.17 4.83 0.34 4.88 YrMbH... 105,328 1.48 2O.S2 19.05 6.58 7.12 1.40 5.41 0.31 5.35 He¢Te· H ralOJl,06b,,,. 17.022 -1.20 8.89 10.09 4.41 3.94 0.53 3.32 0.09 1.74 P83pa60n:a pa,n,HOBTHBHhlX MllHepanoB H HX npo,ll,)'ltTolI 3,124 ·15.56 2.40 17.96 8.07 7.30 1.12 5.3l 0.86 2.59 ~06blqa PY,IlllepKLtX H D.BeTHbIX Me TaJ1J10B 61,739 -4.12 10.43 14.55 2.60 6.65 1.27 4.95 0.43 5.30 ;\001;,1Q8 KeMeTaJlJJK'ICCl::OrO UIPL.I 31,831 ·20.33 5.56 25.89 6.79 8.79 1.77 6.23 0.78 10.31 06pWTbI.alOll(.... 2,748,454 -13.46 4.37 17.83 7.49 6.88 1.71 4.55 0.62 3.46 nH~eBaI~ ra6st:QIu, npoH380,IJ,cTBO HarulnoB 220,322 .{j.77 8.74 15.51 5.39 5.92 1.60 3.70 0.62 4.20 TeKCTMhllaJl', KOZeBeHHu. npoH3BOACTBO mc:uccyapoB, 521,485 -19.21 4.27 23.47 11.83 6.S3 1.69 4.03 0.81 5.11 TPUROTalItHU 06YHKaJ[ 96,111 -13.06 3.53 16.58 6.24 6.26 1.22 4.27 0.78 4.08 ,ll,epeBoo6pa6aTbI.alOll(aJ[ 83,599 ·10.27 6.53 16.81 3.59 10.34 1.99 7.19 1.16 2.88 lI,eJlJlIOJl03Ho-6YMalKHaJ[ H nOJlHrpa4HtteeXu 51,786 -13.02 3.14 16.16 5.92 8.05 1.66 5.58 0.81 2.19 Heop-¢UHcoB"" 136,585 -12.08 5.67 17.75 7.00 7.90 1.39 5.88 0.62 2.86 MeTaJlJ'tYPfJol'l.{tCKaJl 204,669 -10.32 4.27 14.58 6.03 6.44 1.07 4.96 0.41 2.11 MeTanJl06paooT1<;\>4>H!\H' oCh•• ",... 3alurrOCTH CRT 3.nac- npGH380)lt (a) TIPmOCTB OTaa (6) 3aBno<::TH BCII npOMblwneHHOCTb 46.0 78.2 40.4 .o;06blBalOll\all 55.7 95.5 10.0 YronbHaR 57.0 102.3 -5A HeTe- H ra30A06bl'la 72.2 106.9 -24.8 .o;06bl'la PYA 'lepHblX H I.tBeTHblX MeTannOB 48.0 88.3 22.6 .o;pyme OTpacnH A06blBalOll\eH npOMblwneHHOCTH 45.5 72.4 50.6 06pa6aTblBalOIl\all 42.6 78.5 37.4 TIHll\eBall H npOH3BOACTBa HanHTKOB 53.6 91.6 18.1 Ta6a'lHall 75.0 98.9 4.5 TeKCTHnbHaR,KomeBeHHaR,npOH3BoACTBO YKpaweHHH 44.8 75.6 44.1 TIPOH3BOACTBO TKaHHblX. MeXOBbiX H KO)K. H3AenHH 45.5 84.1 29.1 06YSHall 47.8 77.9 42.3 .o;epeBo06pa6aTblBalOll\all 45.7 80.7 35.5 EYMa)KHall H nonHrpaH'IeCKaR 35.8 8004 30.5 HeTenepepa6aTblBalOllIall. nepepa60TKa yrnR H paAHOaKTHBHoro TonnHBa 43.7 94.0 10.6 XHMH'leCKaR 43.7 87.1 22.8 Pe:lHHO-~ nnaCTlfKOTeXHH"IeCK3R 36.5 76.8 36.5 CTeKonbHaR.ap0poBo-aRHcoBaR 39.0 82.6 28.5 ~eTannyprH'IecKaR 36.2 80.9 30.0 ~eTanno6pa6oTKa 36.2 70.2 46.7 ~awHHOCTpoeHHe H 060pYAoBaHHe 45.4 71.2 52.8 TIPOH3BOACTBO KOMnblOTepOB H AononHHTenbHoro K HHM o6oPYA0BaHHR 32.8 61.4 57.5 TIPOH3BO.qCTBO 3neKTpH'leCKoro o6oPYAoBaHHlI H APymx YCTPOHCTB 47.1 71.9 53.2 TIpoH3BOACTBO cpeACTB CBlI3H H cooTBeTCTBYIO Il\ero 060PYAOBaHH.II 38.4 76.2 38.7 TIPOH3BoACTBO MeAHI.tHHcKOro, '1aCoBoro, OnTH'leCKoro 060PYAoBaHHR 39.3 64.5 58.5 TIPOH3BOACTBO )KIA TpaHcnopTa 39.7 81.2 31.1 .o;pyme BHAbl TpaHcnopTHoro MawHHOCTPOCHHR 44.9 78.4 39.2 .o;pyme OTpacnH (BKnIO'laR Me6enbHYIO) 67.0 83.9 48.8 3neKTp03HepreTHKa' H KOMMYHanbHble cny>K6bl 59.2 104.2 -10.3 CTaHAapTHOC OTKnOHeHHe 10.87 11.49 8. J.i3'MCHCHH'f 8 3aJiJITOCTH ytlHTbIBaIOTeJ{ TOJ1bKO c 199Q r., nOC1(OJlbKY AJ11 TaJCofi KJlaCCHtPmraUHH OTpac..1eil aeT COOTBeTCT&yJOWHX .1I,3.lHlhIX DO 3atUiTOCTR 8 1989 r. (8 KOHue 1992 r. no ornoweHHJO It 199Or. 1990 r. ~ 100 III 6. B 1992 r. no OTHOmeHRIO K 19S9r. 1989· 100 III 3aMeQaan:c: K03¢¢HUHCHT 3J18CTH'lHOCTH 3aHJlTOCTH (AC) onpUe.JIJ(eTCJi 8 .H,II,C npoueHnlOro COOllfoweHU Jl3MeHCHBJI 3UUITOC-TH C 1990 r. K H3MCHeHHIO 06'heM8 npOH380,D,CT8l C 1989 no 1992 r. HCTO.... HlC: eNS. Ta611l1ua 6-13 aaeT HaM KapTI1Hy pa36poca nOKa3aTeJ1R TeKY4eCTl1 no OTnellbHblM OTpaCllRM: oc060 3Ha4l1TellbHOe naneHl1e PYMbIHUR 331 3aHflTOCTH npOH30lU110 B TeKCTH11bHOH npOMbllU11eHHOCTH, pa3pa60TKe panHOaKTHBHblX MHHepa110B, n06bl4e HeMeTa1111H4eCKoro CblPbfl, MeTa111106pa60TKe,MalUHHOCTpoeHHH,npOH3BOnCTBe311eKTpH4eCKoro 060PY,l:lOBaHHfI. B npyrHx OTpaC11flX - He!fJTe- H ra30,l:l06bI4e. ,l:l06b14e PY,l:l 4epHbiX H QBeTHblX MeTa11110B, B nHlueBOH npOMbllU11eHHOCTH, B XHMH4eCKOH, B TpaHcnopTHOM MalUHHOCTpoeHHH H Ha )Ke11e3HO,l:lOpO)K- HOM TpaHcnOPTe - naneHHe 3aHflTOCTH 6bl110 CpaBHHTe11bHO He6011b- lUHM. npHpOCT 3aHflTOCTH npOH30lUe11 B yro11bHOH npOMbllU11eHHOCTH, r,l:le nOKa3aTe11b TeKY4eCTH npH611H3H11CfI K 20% (KaK no OTTOKY. TaK H no npHTOKY 3aHflTblx). B OCHOBHOM pa311H4HfI B nOBeneHHH 3aHflTOCTH no OT,l:le11bHbIM oTpac11flM BblTeKalOT H3 Me)KOTpaC11eBbIX OTKllOHeHHH B nOKa3aTe11flX ypOBHfI YBo11bHeHHH. HaH6011ee BblCOKaSi CTeneHb CTPYKTYPHOH nepeCTpoHKH Ha611lOna11acb B TeKCTH11bHOH npoMbllU11eHHoCTH: 6011ee 12% 3aHSlTbiX B TeKCTH11bHOH npoMbllU11eH- HOCTH 6blllH yao11eHbl B 1992 r. DUHaMUKa 3aHRmocmu U Me')KOmpaClle6bl€ pa3IlU'-iUR n04eMY nHHaMHKa 3aHSITOCTH OT11H4aeTCfI no OT,l:le11bHbIM oTpacmlM? nepBoe npenn0110)KeHHe CBSl3aHO C TeM. 4TO pa3Hbie OTpaC11H HcnblTa- 11H pa311H4Hble no CH11e lUOKH OT na,l:leHHfI 06'beMOB npOH3BO,l:lCTBa. XOTSI OTK110HeHHSI B nOKa3aTe11SlX na,l:leHHSI npoH3BOnCTBa H He 6bl11H oc060 3Ha4HTe11bHbIMH, TeM He MeHee, 3TO Mor110 Bbl3BaTb pa311H4HSI B TeMnax naneHHH 3aHHTOCTH. ll11Sl aHa11H3a TaKOH B03MO)KHOCTH Mbl CBe11H B O,l:lHOH Ta611HQe (Ta611.6-14) H3MeHeHHfI B o6'beMax npOH3BO,l:l- CTBa H B ypOBHSlX 3aHSITOCTH no OTne11bHbiM OTpaC11SlM. BpeMeHHOH pSl,l:l ,l:lHHaMHKH 06'beMOB npOH3BOnCTBa BKll104aeT nepHon C 1989 no 1992 r., a H3MeHeHHSI nOKa3aTe11Sl 3aHSITOCTH OXBaTblBalOT nepHOn C 1990 no 1992r. (H3-3a HeXBaTKH ,l:laHHblx). OTHOlUeHHe H3MeHeHHSI ypOBHSI 3aHSITOCTH K H3MeHeHHIO 06'beMa npOH3BO,l:lCTBa Mbl Ha3Ba11H "K03!fJcpHQHeHToM 311aCTH4HOCTH 3aHSITocTH". K011e6aHHSI 3aHSITOCTH 3Ha4HTe11bHO pa311H4alOTcSI no oTpac11SlM. CH11bHoe cOKpaij!eHHe 3aHSITOCTH C OnHOBpeMeHHblM naneHHeM 06'beMOB npoH3BOnCTBa (npH K03CPCPHQHeHTe 311aCTH4HOCTH 6011ee 50%) npoH30lU110 B TeKCTH11bHOH npOMbllU11eHHOCTH. MalUHHOC- TpoeHHH H npOH3BOnCTBe 060PY,l:lOBaHHSI. B Me6e11bHoH npOMbllU11eH- HOCTH. Ho B HeKOTopblX OTpaC11SlX npH 3Ha4HTe11bHOM na,l:leHHH npOH3BOnCTBa ypoBeHb 3aHSITOCTH npaKTH4eCKH OCTa11CSI npe)KHHM, TaK B yro11bHoH npOMbllU11eHHOCTH, HecpTe- H ra30,l:l06bI4e. B KOMMY- Ha11bHbiX c11Y)K6ax K03cpcpHQHeHT HMe11 na)Ke oTpHQaTe11bHoe 3Ha4e- HHe. TaKHM 06pa30M, CTaHOBHTCSI SlCHbIM. 4TO H3MeHeHHSI B 06'beMaX 332 5e3pa6omuqa, nepecmpoi1Ka 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa npOH3BOllCTBa He MOryI' nonHOCTblO 06'bSlCHHTb llHana30H H3MeHeHHH B ypOBHe 3aHSITOCTH. PaCCMOTpHM HeKOTopble llPyrne nepeMeHHble. Ba)J(HbIM cpaKTopOM H3MeHeHHH 3amlTOCTH MO)J(eT 6bITb 3HepreTHtieCKHH WOK. KaK H3BeCTHO, npOMblwneHHOCTb PYMbIHHH SlBnSleTCSI Heo6bltlaHH03HeproeMKOH, ypOBeHb nOTpe6neHHR nepBHtlHOH 3HeprnH K BBn B 5 pa3 npeBbIWaeT aHanOrntlHbIH nOKa3aTenb B CTpaHax 3anallHOH EBponbI H B 2 pa3a B CTpaHax BOCTOtiHOH (OECD, 1993). A .QBH)J(eHHe ueH Ha HMnopTHpyeMYIO 3HeprnIO K MHPOBOMY ypOBHIO pe3Ko yeenHtlHnO peanbHble H3.Qep)J(KH. MbI TaK)J(e CtlHTaeM, tlTO nonHTHKa rocYllapCTBa cnoco6CTBO- Bana TOMY, tlTO HeKOTopblM npellnpHSlTHRM YllanOCb Y.Qep)J(aTbcR Ha" nnaBY", coxpaHHTb Y ce6R onpe.QeneHHblH ypoBeHb 3apa6oTHoH nnaTbI H H36e)J(aTb MaCCOBbIX YBonbHeHHH. LJTo6bI .QOKa3aTb 3TY B03MO)J(HOCTb, Mbl oueHHnH Ha oTpacneBblx llaHHblX 3aBHCHMOCTb Me)l(Jly cne.QYIOIJ!HMH nOKa3aTenSlMH: H3MeHeHHe 3aHRTOCTH, 06'beMa npoH3Bo.QCTBa, .QonR npOlla)J(, npHXOllRlJ!aRcSi Ha rocY.QapCTBeHHble npellnpHSlTHR-rnraHTbl TSI)J(enOH npOMblwneHHocTH (RA), OTHoweHHe CYMMbl Bcex cy6CHllHH K CTOHMOCTH BbInYI,!!eHHOH np0.QYKUHH (SUBS), .QonR HeKBanHcpHUHpoBaHHblx pa60tlHX, nonYtialOIyHX 3apa6oTHYIO nnaTY Bblwe YCTaHOBneHHoro B 1991 r. MaKcHMYMa (EXWU). 3TH nepeME;!HHble 6blnH nO.QCtlHTaHbl no pe3ynbTaTaM cpHHaHCOBOH OTtleT- HOCTH, npellCTasneHHoH 1700 rOCYllapCTBeHHblMH npoMblwneHHblMH npeMpHRTHSlMH. 11 XOTH B 3TH X 6anaHcax BCTpetialOTCH HeTOtiHOCTH H onpelleneHHble 1l0nYlJ!eHHR, Ha TOT MOMeHT 3TO 6blnH caMble 1l0CTOBepHbie llaHHble. LJTo6bl oueHHTb ponb Me)J(OTpacneBblX pa3nHtlHH B H3MeHeHHH 3aHHTOCTH Mbl npOBenH Hccne.QOBaHHe MeT01l0M HaHMeHbwHX KSallpa- TOB cnellYIOlJ!eH perpeCCHH: ~L -10.90+.46AX+ .039EI+.053RA+.038SUBS+.269EXWU (9.70) (.146) (.141) (.036) (.029) (.082) R2 =.82 F=23.05 N=25 rAe aL - H:lMeHeHHe :laHaTOCTH B npoLieHTax (1990-KOHeLi1992r.) ll.X - H:lMeHeHHe 06'beMa npOH:lBOACTBa B Yo (1989-1992r.) EI - nOKa:laTenb 3HeproeMKocTH B oTAenbHblx oTpacnax, B BHAe OTHoweHHa nOTpe6neHHoH 3HepmH K 06'beMY BbmYll\eHHoii npoMblwneHHoii npoAYJOHtl rocco6CTBeHHoCTH tlllH 3THX KOMnaHHH npet:{yCMOTpeHO He 6blllO. BTopoe - K "pacnpOtla)Ke aKTHBOB" OTHOCHTCH BblCTaBlleHHe Ha aYKUHOHHble npOtla)KH Mara311HOB HllH npetlnpHHTHH B c¢epe 06CllY)KH- BaHI1.H. VI HaKOHeu, B paMKax "paHHeH npHBaTH3aUI1H" HaUHOHallbHoe areHTCTBO no npl1BaTH3aUHH npOtlallO 22 KpynHble KOMnaHHH, rllaBHblM o6pa30M oTpaclleH 06pa6aTbiBalOIYeH npoMbllUlleHHoCTH. TaKHM o6pa30M, tlaHHa.H Ta611Hua nOKa3blBaeT He TOllbKO 06IYHH ypOBeHb 3aHRTOCTH B 4aCTHOM ceKTope, HO 11 CBHtleTellbcTByeT 0 ero pOCTe. Ta611HUa 6-15. 3aHHTocTb B 4aCTHOM ceKTope, ceHTH6pb 1993 r. MeTO.o: npHBaTH3at:tHH KOJl-BO 3aHIITbiX B paMKax nporpaMMbI MEBO, o6utee KOJlU'leCTBO pa6o'lux 16.200 .!lep:>KaTeJlH aKl\HH 12,954 AKl\HoHHaR pacnpo.o:a:>Ka aKTHBOB 12,108 B paMKax nporpaMMbI "pauHeH npHBaTH3al\lfH", Bcero 19.167 npOMblWJleHHOCTb 14,811 CTpOHTeJlbCTBO 3.934 TOprOBJlII 72 C¢epa 06CJlY:>KHBaHHII 350 l'iToro 47.475 335 HeKOTopaH ,IlonOJIHHTeJIbHaH HHcpopMa!,!H11 no 3aHHTOCTH B qaCTHOM ceKTope MOlKeT 6blTb nOJIyqeHa B MeCTHblX cJIYlK6ax 3aHHTOCTH, r,lle pa60TalOYAHe pernCTpHPYJOT CBOH TPY,IlOBble KHHlKKH H Oq,OPMJIHIOT ,IlOKYMeHTbl no CO!,!HaJIbHOMY 06eCneqeHHIO. O,llHaKO pernCTpa!,!HH He HOCHT Bceo6'beMJIIOYAerO xapaKTepa, KaK B CBfl3H C TeM, qTO 3aHflTbIe B CeJIbCKOM X03f1HCTBe H 3aHHMalOYAHeCfI HH,IlHBH,IlY- aJIbHO-TPY,IlOBOH .lleflTeJIbHOCTblO He pernCTpHpytoTCfI, TaK H nOTOMY, qTO B03MOlKHO 3HaQHTeJIbHOe KOJIHQeCTBO Tex, KTO H36eraeT pernCTpa- !,!HH, QTo6bl YKJIOHHTbCfI OT ynJIaTbl HaJIOrOB H B3HOCOB B q,OH.llbl COUHaJIbHOrO CTpaXOBaHHH. TeM He MeHee, 3TO e.llHHCTBeHHblH .llOCTynHblH HCT04HHK .llaHHbIX no CTPYKType 3aHflTOCTH B 4aCTHOM ceKTope. PHc.6-4 .llaeT KapTHHY 3BOJIIO!,!HH CTPYKTYPbl 3aHHTOCTH no 06pa30BaTeJIbHOMY YPOBHIO. OKa3blBaeTCfI, npeo6JIa,llalOYAee 4HCJIO 3aHflTbiX B QaCTHOM ceKTope HMeeT TOJIbKO Ha4aJIbHOe 06pa30BaHHe; TaKHM 06pa30M OHH cnoco6Hbi BbInOJIHHTb TOJIbKO pa60Tbl, He Tpe6ytoYAHe BblCOKOH KBaJIHcpHKaUHH. PHC}'HOK 6-4. 3aHflTocTb B 4aCTHOM ceKTope no o6pa30BaTeJIbHoMY YPOBHIO. ABryCT 1992- ceHTH6pb 1993. 700 200 1m ~ 6a30BOe 11 cpe,lUIee 06pa30BaHHe o6pa30BaHHe flpaKTH4eCKH HeT ocpH!,!HaJIbHOH HHq,opMa!,!HH, KaCalOYAeHCfI YPOBHfI 3a pa60THbiX nJIaT B 4aCTHOM ceKTope B PYMbIHHH. 3TO 60JIblllafl 336 Be3pa6omutla, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyiJa Hey,[(a4a, nOCKOJIbKY .flCHO, 4TO MeTO,[(bl H cnoco6bl, KOTOPblMH 4aCTHblH CeKTOp npHBJIeKaeT K ce6e pa60THHKOB. HrpalOT BaiKHyJO pOJIb B onpe,[(eJIeHHH ,[(HHaMHKH 061!!ero ypOBH.fl 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl, 3aH.flTOCTH H 6e3pa60TH!!bl. TeM He MeHee, Mbl pHcKyeM c,[(eJIaTb HeKOTOpbJe BbIBO,[(bl. Mbl nOJIaraeM, 4T0 3a HCKJIlO4eHHeM pa60TalOI!!HX Ha HHOCTpaHHblX qmpMax H B03MOiKHO Ha HeKOTopblX COBMeCTHblX npe,[(npH.flTH.flX, OCTaJIbHbie 3aH.flTble B 4aCTHOM ceKTope nOJIY4alOT 3apa6OTHyJO nJIaTY He HaMHoro npeBblwalO1J!YlO ypOBeHb 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl B rocy,[(apCTBeHHOM ceKTope, TeM 60JIee, eCJIH npHH.flTb BO BHHMaHHe pa3JIH4Hbie ,[(onOJIHHTeJIbHble JIbrOTbl, npe'[(OCTaBJI.fleMble B rocceKTope. ECJIH TaKa.fl KapTHHa COOTBeTCTByeT '[(eHCTBHTeJIbHOCTH, TO ,[(JI.fl CTPyKTYPHOH nepeCTpOHKH PYMblHCKOH 3KOHOMHKH B nepHO'[( nepexo'[(a CKopee ,[(OJIiKeH 6blTb xapaKTepeH MexaHH3M "BbITaJIKHBa- HH.fl" pa604HX B npo!!eCce COKpal!!eHHH, 4eM MexaHH3M "BbIT.flrnBaHH.fl". COnpOBOiK}:(aeMbIH '[(06POBOJIbHbIMH YBOJIbHeHH.flMH C rocnpe'[(npH.flTHH B CBfl3H C iKeJIaHHeM nepeHTH Ha pa60TY B 4aCTHblH ceKTOp. C O'[(HOH CTOPOHbl, 4aCTHblH ceKTOp He HMeeT orpaHH4eHHH B 06JIaCTH nOBblwe- HHfI 3apa60THOH nIlaTbl, HO C ,[(pyroH CTOPOHbl. pa604He nOKa He HcnblTblBalOT CHIIbHblX MOTHBa!!HH MeH.flTb MeCTa pa60Tbi - Bce 3TO, rOBopHT 0 TOM, 4TO Ha ,[(aHHOM 3Tane pa3BHTHfi ,[(I1.fl 4aCTHoro ceKTopa xapaKTepeH HH3KHH ypOBeHb cnpoca Ha pa604YlO CHJIy. HeKOTopble KOCBeHHble ,[(OKa3aTeJIbCTBa 3TOMY yrBepiK}:(eHHIO MOiKHO HaHTH B 06CJIe'[(OBaHHH 3apernCTpHpOBaHHbiX 6e3pa60THblX, 4TO .flBJIfleTCfI TeMOH Hawero CJIe,[(YIOLijero pa3'[(eJIa. Bo-nepBblX, OKOJIO 70% o¢HlJHaJIbHO 3apemcTpHpoBaHHbix 6e3pa60THbiX OTHOC.flTC.fl K TeM, KTO nOTep.flJI pa6oTY. BO-BTOPbIX, OKOJIO 75% 6e3pa60THb1X npe'[(n04JIH 6bl HaHTH pa60TY Ha rocy,[(apcTBeHHblx npe,[(npHflTH.flX H TOJIbKO OKOJIO 20% Ha 4aCTHbIX. B-TpeTbHx, MeHee nOJIOBHHbl H3 Tex, KTO npe'[(n04eIl 6bJ pa60TY B 4aCTHOM ceKTope, YKa3aJIH B Ka4eCTBe npH4HHbi 60JIee BblCOKHH ypoBeHb 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl, 4eM Ha rocy,[(apCTBeHHblx npe,[(npHflTH.flX. B-4eTBepTblx, 6e3pa60THbie 60JIbWe Bcero !!eH.flT TO, 4TO Ha rocy,[(apCTBeHHblX npe,[(npH.flTH.flX, C HX T04KH 3peHHfI, ,[(aIOTC.fl 60JIbWHe rapaHTHH 3aH.flTOCTH, H C4HTaIOT, 4TO JIlO60e npeBbJWeHHe 3apnJIaT B 4aCTHOM ceKTope flBII.fleTC.fl KaK 6bl KOMneHca- 24 !!HeH 3a 60JIee BblCOKHH PHCK YBOIlbHeHH.fl. 24 I1HTepecHO, 4TO 6e3pa60THbie He C4HTalOT, 4TO B 4aCTHOM ceKTope OT HHX 6y'[(eT Tpe60BaTbCfI 60JIee HHTeHCHBHblH Tpy,[(: 2,7% Tex pecnoH'[(eHToB, KOTOpbJe npe,[(n04I1H 6bl HaHTH pa60TY B rocy,[(apc- TBeHHOM ceKTope, Bbl,[(BHraJlH B Ka4eCTBe KpHTepH.fl Bbl60pa - HeBbICO- KHe 3aTpaTbi Tpy,[(a, O'[(HaKO, TOT iKe KpHTepHH 6blJI Ha3BaH 5,8% Tex, PYM'bIHUR 337 EeJpa60THIJa H ee )lHHaMHKa nOBetleHHe 6e3pa60THy,bl 25 B PYMblHHH XapaKTepH3yeTcH 60nee nOCTeneHHblM, ecnH He MeHee )f(eCTOKHM Te'-leHHeM, He)f(enH B 60nbWHHCTBe COCetlHHX CTpaH. PHCYHOK 6-5 HnnlOCTpHPyeT POCT 3apernCTpHpOBaHHbiX 6e3pa60THbiX C t:i>eBpanH 1991 r. (KOrtla HX KOnH'-IeCTBO CTano Y4HTblBaTbcH) no tleKa6pb 1993 r.26 HaH60nee BblCOKHH TeMn pOCTa 3apernCTpHpOBaHHbiX (Ha tlHar"PaMMe) 6e3pa- 60THblX 6bln 3at:i>HKcHpoBaHbl C HOH6pH 1991r. no t:i>eBpanb 1992 r.,c HlOnH 1992 r. no HOH6pb 1992 r. H onHTb B KOHy,e 1993r. TaKHe TeMnbl pOCTa HMeHHO B 1992r. MOryT 6blTb 06bHcHeHbl B3aHMOtleHCTBHeM '-IeTblpex t:i>aKTOpoB: Bo-nepBblx, HCnOnb30BaHHeM orpaHH'-IeHHH Ha pa3Mep t:i>oHtla 3apa60THoH nnaTbl B Ka'-leCTBe OCHOBHoro HanpaBneHHR nonHTHKH perynHpoBaHHH 3apa60THoH nnaTbl; BO-BTOPbIX, natleHHeM ypOBHR y,eH npoH3BotlHTenR no OTHoweHHIO K HHt:i>nRy,HH y,eH nOTpe6H- TenR (B03MO)f(HO BCnetlCTBHe BpeMeHHoro 3aMOpa)f(HBaHHR onTOBblX y,eH B CepetlHHe rotla); B-TpeTbHx, npotlneHHeM nepHotla, B Te'-leHHe KOToporo Bbmna'-lHBaIOTCH noc06HR no 6e3pa60THy,e, C weCTH tlo tleBHTH MecHy,eB B KOHy,e 1991r.; B-'-IeTBepTblx, npHHHTHeM B aBrycTe 1992 r. HOBOH pacwHpeHHoH nporpaMMbl no coy,HanbHoH nOMep)f(Ke 6e3pa60THb1X. PHc.6-5 naeT HnnlOCTpalJHIO nHHaMI1KH paCTa anpeneJleHHblX KaTerOpl1H 6e3pa60THblX B 3aBHCHMOCTI1 aT KOHKpeTHoro BHtla nonY'-IaeMblX HMH nOC06I1H: "nonY'-IaTenH UB" nOJlY'-IaJlH 06bl'-lHOe noc06He no 6e3pa60THy,e, "nonY'-IaTeJlH SA" nonY'-IanH noc0611e B paMKax nporpaMMbl no cOy'HanbHoH nOMep)f(Ke 6e3pa60THb1X, TpeTbR rpynna 06betlHHReT 6e3pa60THb1X, KOTopble He nonY'-IalOT noc06HH, HO 3apernCTpHpoBanHcb B cnY)f(6e 3aHHTOCTH C y'enblO HaHTH pa60TY. TeMn pOCTa KOnH'-IeCTBa nonY'-IalOl!!HX noc06HR no 6e3pa60THy,e KTO npetlno'-len 6bl pa60TaTb B '-IaCTHOM ceKTope. 2S 3TOT pa3tlen OCHOBaH Ha BblKnatlKaX 60Jlee paHHHx CTaTeH (Earle, 1993a), XOTH Bbl60pKa, aHanH3HpyeMaR 3tleCb, 3Ha'-lHTenbHO npetlCTaBHTenbHee. Bonee tleTanbHblH aHanH3 pe3ynbTaToB 06cnetlo- BaHHH MO)f(HO HaHTH B BblweYKa3arlHOH CTaTbe. B CTaTbRX Coolin and Zecher in 1992, Pert 1992 H Pauna 1993 TaK)f(e paccMaTpHBalOTcR Bonpocbl 6e3pa60THy'bl B PYMbIHHH. 26 B HaCToHlJ!ee BpeMH B PYMblHHH npOBOtlHTCR 06cnetloBaHHe COCTORHHH pa60'-leH CHJlbl, HO pe3ynbTaTbi nOKa HeH3BeCTHbl. TaKHM 06pa30M, tlaHHble Ta6nHy,bl xapaKTepH3YlOT TonbKO ot:i>Hy'HanbHo 3apemcTpHpoBaHHblx 6e3pa60THb1X. 338 Ee3pa6omutja, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U P'blHOK mpy()a 3aMe,nnHnCfI B 1992 r. H ,na)Ke ynan B nepBoA nonOBHHe 1993 r.B CBfl3H C OKOH4aHHeM nepHo,noB HX BbInnaTbl; ,no onpe,neneHHoA CTeneHH 3Ta TeH,neHYHfI 6blna KOMneHcHpoBaHa paCTYl!!HM 4HcnOM nonyqaJOIl1HX SA noco6HfI, o,nHaKO He Bce, nOTepfiBume npaBO Ha nonyqeHHe noco6HfI no 6e3pa6oTHye, nona,nanH no,n KaTeropHJO "nonY4aTeneA SA". PHCYHOK 6-5. fIonyqaTeJ1H noco6HA no 6e3pa6oTHye, ¢leBpanb 1991- ,neKa6pb 1993. t~ , -_______________________________________________ t~ +- ______________________________ ~~----~~----- 800 ~(OO Q ~~+---------~~~A-~----------~~----- ~ +---~~~~~------------~~----------------- - . AIqo. 1IJo....Au. 0Irr. Jl.te. __ Anp. Ib>Ja.. AM. 0..... n... -. Anp. 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OHH He YJlOBlleTBOPHllH Tpe60BaHHHM, npeJl'bHBllHe- MblM K nOllyqaTellHM UB), a nepeCTaBUJHe nOllyqaTb noc06HH npoCTO "paCTBopHllHCb". Ho HeKOTopble BblBOJlbl Bce-TaKH MO:lKHO CJlellaTb, eCllH npHHHTb BO BHHMaHHe npO,!:{Oll:lKHTellbHOCTb nepHOJlOB BbmllaT noc06HH H yqeCTb MeCHua, B KOTopble HCTeKallH CpOKH HX JletiCTBHH, Jll1H Toro, tIT06bl H36e:lKaTb npeYBellHyeHHblX oueHOK (Ha pHc.6-7 npeJlCTaBlleHa 06IUaH KapTHHa npOJlOll:lKHTellbHOCTH nepHOJlOB 6e3pa6OTHUbl). B nepBble UJeCTb MeCHueB (C ¢eBpallH no aBryCT 1991r.) BbmaJlalOIUHX H3 yqeTa 3apernCTpHpOBaHHbiX 6e3pa60THbiX He 6blllO, nOCKOllbKY Bce OHH npOJlOll:lKallH nOllyqaTb noc06HH; aHallO- rnYHaH KapTHHa Ha611IOJlallaCb H C HHBapH no MapT 1992r., KOrJla npOJlOll:lKHTellbHOCTb nepHOJlOB BbmllaT noc06Hti 6bllla npOJllleHa JlO JleBHTH MeCHueB, H 6e3pa60THble, paHee nOTepHBUJHe npaBO Ha nOllyqeHHe noc06HH, BHOBb Ha TpH MeCHua CTallH yqHTblBaTbCH B peeCTpe 6e3pa60THb1X. 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He06xol:lHMOrO l:IJIll l:IOCTH:lKeHHH COCTOllHHH KOHKypeHTocnoco6HOCTH Ha MHPOBOM pblHKe. HO HeKOTOpble OTpaCJIH npOMbIWJIeHHOCTH, HMelOlJ.!He npHJIH"IHbIH nOTeHUHaJI pa3BHTHH (TeKCTHJIbHaH H Me6eJIbHall npOMbIWJIeHHOCTb). TeplllOT 3Ha"lHTeJ1bHOe "IHCJIO CBOHX pa60THHKOB. )J;aJIee MbI npHWJIH B BbIB0l:\Y. "ITO CYIJ.!eCTBYeT 06paTHall 3aBHCHMOCTb Me:lKl:\Y ypOBHeM npHTOKa B 6e3pa6oTHUY H l:IJIHTeJIb- HOCTblO nepHOl:la 6ropa6oTHlJ,b1. TaKall B3aHMOCBH3b xapaKTepHa l:IJ1ll BCeX KaTerOpHH 6e3pa60THbiX B HaWeH Bbl60pKe, CrpynnHpoBaHHblX KaK no ypOBHHM HX npo¢eCCHOHaJIbHOH nOl:lrOTOBKH, TaK H no . OTl:IeJIbHblM OTpaCJIllM H no reorpa¢H"IeCKHM paHOHaM. 3TOT pe3YJIbTaT l:IOCTaTO"lHO Yl:IHBHTeJIeH nOTOMY, "ITO 06bl"lHO npel:lnOJIaraeTCH, "ITO npoueCCTPYl:I°YCTpoHCTBaxapaKTepH3YeTCllnOHH:lKalOlJ.!eHCllOTl:Ia "leH Ha MaCWTa6 - "IeM 60JIbWe 6e3pa60THb1X, "IeM CJIO:lKHee, Ka3aJIOCb 6bl, HX YCTPOHTb Ha pa6OTY. ECJIH B31lTb ypOBeHb npHTOKa B Ka"leCTBe nOKa3aTeJ11l, xapaKTepH3YIOIJ.!ero CTPYKTYPHYIO nepeCTpoHKY. TO TOrl:la MO:lKHO 6Yl:IeT Cl:IeJIaTb BbIBOl:l, "ITO l:IJIll Tex ceKTopOB (paHOHOB, npo¢eCCHH), rl:le npouecc npe06pa30BaHHH HOCHT HaHMeHee nporpeCCHBHblH xapaKTep, xapaKTepHbl 60JIee BbICOKHe nepHOl:lbl npOl:lOJI:lKHTeJ1bHOCTH 6ropa6OTHUbi l:IJ1ll (HeMHomx) YSOJIbHHeMblx pa60"lHX. H XOTH B XOl:le Hawero aHaJIH3a 6bIJI Cl:IeJ1aH BblBOl:l 0 TOM, "ITO npOBel:leHHe CTHMYJIHPYIOlJ.!eH m6KOH nOJIHTHKH Ha pblHKe TpYl:Ia MO:lKeT 3Ha"lHTeJIbHO YJIY\.IWHTb B03MO:lKHOCTH nepeYCTpOHCTBa YSOJIeHHblX pa60"lHX, pa3BHTHe 3a"laTKOB CTPYKTYPHOH nepeCTpOHKH B TH:lKeJIOH npOMbIWJIeHHOCTH, Bbl3BaHHOH POCTOM H3l:1ep:lKeK Ha pa6o"lYIO CHJIY, BnOJIHe BepOHTHO, 3Ha"lHTeJIbHO yseJIH"IHT 6e3pa60TH- uy. Berg A., and O. Blanchard. 1994" Stabilization and Transition: Poland,1990-1991" In O:r:Blanchard. K. Frost. nd J.Sachs. eds .• Trans/onnation in Eastern Europe. University of Chicago Press. Baeri, Tito. 1994. 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TaKHe KaK ilOJlbllla H BeHrpH.fI, HaXOn.flTC.fI Ha ToA CTa,[lHH, Korna nOJl.fl ToproBJlH H yCJlyr npH6JlH)KaeTC.fI K COOTBeTCTBYIOIYHM nOKa3aTeJl.flM B npyrwx PblH04HblX 3KOHOMHKax C npHMepHO TaKHM )Ke ypOBHeM nOXona. 3TO nOnHHMaeT Bonpoc 0 TOM, 6ynYT JlH HHBeJlHpOBaTbC.fI Me>KCTpaHOBble pa3JlH4H.fI B TeMnax C03naHH.fI pa604HX MeCT B 4aCTHOM ceKTope. Mbl HaXOnHM MaJlO OCHOBaHHA C4HTaTb. "ITO 4aCTHblA ceKTOp rne-JlH6o - B npOMblIllJleH- HOCTH, HanpHMep. MO)KeT HenpepblBHO paCTH OnHHM H TeM )Ke TeMnOM. 3BOJllOUH.fI6e3pa6oTHUbl CJlenyeT H3 HarneA xapaKTepHCTHKH pa3BHTH.fI 4aCTHoro H rocynapCTBeHHoro CeKTOpOB. C¢OKYCHpOBaB BHHMaHHe cnepBa Ha BeHrpHH, ilOJlbllle H \.felllcKoA Pecny6JlHKe MO)KHO Ha6JllOnaTb KaK C Te4eHHeM BpeMeHH MeH.fIeTC.fI npHpOna 6e3pa6oTHUbl. ilepBOHa4aJlbHOe COKpaI,!!eHHe 3aH.fITOCTH B rocynapCTBeHHOM ceKTope npOHCXOnHJlO KaK nYTeM np.flMOrO nepexona pa60THHKOB Ha npyrYJO pa60TY. TaK H nYTeM Bbl6blTH.fI H3 COCTaBa pa604eH CHJlbl nocpenCTBOM nOCp04Horo BblXOna Ha neHCHIO. ,[lJl.fl Tex. KTO HMeJl HeC4aCTbe CTaTb 6e3pa6oTHblM. nepCneKTHBbl 6bIJlH TYMaHHblMH, ilOKa3aTeJlH ypOBH.fI OTTOKa H3 p.flnOB 362 Be3pa6omul.Ia, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyda Ta6JIHga 7-1. 3aHflToCTb no lj>opMaM co6CTBeHHoCTH. B mblCR'laX J!OIlR Jo6Ujeil 3aHR- mocmu lloKa3amellu 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991 1992 BeHrpHfI 06l:QaR 3aHRTOCTb 4699,0 4334,0 4120,0 rOCYllapcTBeHHblH ceKTop 2860,4 2645,0 66,0 64,2 1'..faCTHblH ceKTop 1473,6 1475,0 34,0 35,8 OOJIbWa 06l:QaR 3aHl'ITOCTb 16511,0 15601,0 15379,0 rOCYJtapCTBeHHblH ceKTOP 10963,4 9313,8 8550,7 66,4 59,7 55,6 1'..facTHblH ceKTop 5547,7 6287,2 6828,3 33,6 40,3 44,4 t.{ewcKafi Pecny6JIHKa '06l:QaR 3aHl'ITOCTb 5351,0 5059,0 4880,0 rocYllapCTBeHHblH ceKTop 4917,0 4052,0 91,9 80,1 1'..faCTHblH ceKTop 434,0 1007,0 8,1 19,9 CJIOBaKHfI 06l:QaR 3aHRTOCTb 2478,0 2281,0 2160,0 rOCYllapCTBeHHblH ceKTop 2357,0 1989,0 1793,0 95,1 87,2 83,0 1'..faCTHblH ceKTop 121,0 292,0 367,0 4,9 12,8 17.0 BOJIrapHfI 06l:QaR 3aHl'ITOCTb 4097,0 3564,0 3113.0 rocYllapcTseHHblH ceKTOp 4097,0 3204,0 2673,0 100,0 89,9 85,9 1'..facTHblH ceKTop 360,0 440,0 10,1 14,1 PYMblHHfI 06l:Qal'l 3aHRTOCTb 10840,0 10786,0 10205.0 rOCYllapcTseHHblH ceKTOP 10041,8 8980,4 93.1 88,0 1'..facTHblH ceKTop 744,2 1224.6 6,9 12,0 POCCHfi 06l:Qal'l 3aHl'ITOCTb 75400 73800 72300 rOCYllapCTseHHblH ceKTop 66900 60300 53600 88,7 81.7 74,1 1'..facTHblH ceKTop 8300 13500 18700 11,0 18.3 25,9 .. HeT Jl,aRJfbIX. npBMeqaaHe: .lI.aHHble no TIMbme B t9S9 r. OOCT8BJIlIIOT. COOTBeTCTBeHHo, 17600, 12126 H 5474. 'ITo JI,.eT Jl,0Jl1O 33HJtI'L,IX B rocy.u;aPCTBeHHOM uRrope 68.9 npOD,eHTOB H B 1I8cruoM «JtTO,pe M 31,1 IIponeHT8. HCT01:{HHX: EmpIuyrtIHPM; npaSaa BblpOCJlH H 06paTHbie nOTOKH H3 COCTaSa 6e3pa6oTHblX. OepeMeIYeHHe C pa60Tbi Be3pa6omul.Ia U nepecmpou/(a 3/(O'H.OMU/(U 8 BocmO'i'H.oii E8pone 363 Ha pa60T}' npoHcxo,llHT Tenepb "4epe3 6e3pa60THYY. HH3KHH ypoBeHb 6e3pa60THl.lbl B \lewcKoH pecny6J1HKe cpaBHHTeJ1bHO C nOJ1bWOH H BeHrpHeH nOp0:>K,neH KaK 60J1ee HHTeHCHBHblM POCTOM "4aCTHOrO ceKTopa (npH MeHbweH HCXO,llHOH 6a3e), TaK H 60J1ee :lKeCTKHMH orpaHH"4eHH.fIMH Ha npaBo nOJ1y"4:aTb noc06He no 6e3pa60TH!,le. He CJ1enyeT, O,llHaKO, nepeO!,leHHBaTb 3TH H3MeHeHH.fI, KOTopble npeTepneBaeT C Te"4eHHeM BpeMeHH npHpO,lla 6e3pa60TH!,lbl. B cpaBHeHHH C 3ana,llHb1MH CTpaHaMH, TeKy"4:eCTb COCTaBa 6e3pa60THb1X OCTaeTC.fI HH3KOH. B CerO,llH.fIWHeH nOJ1bWe H BeHrpHH, MeC.fI"4HbIH nOKa3aTeJ1b ypOBH.fITpY,ll0YCTpoHCTBa H3 COCTaBa 6e3pa60THb1X,ll0 CHX nop He ,llOCTHraeT 3 npo!,leHTOB; ,llJ1.f1 cpaBHeHH.fI B CIIIA B 1992 r. OH COCTaBJ1.f1J1 25 npo!,leHToB. Cpe,llHHe !,lHK,nOH CTpaHe no ,llBYM npH"4HHaM: B pe3YJ1bTaTe pa3J1H"4HH B TeMnax cOKpa~eHH.fI rocY,llapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa H B TeMnax pOCTa "4aCTHOrO ceKTopa. OrpaHH"4eHH.fI Ha nepe,llBH)KeHH.fI pa60"4eH CHJ1bl YCHJ1HBalOT 3TH pernOHaJ1bHble pa3JlH"4H.fI. ,[{pyrne CTpaHbI onmb :lKe nO,llpa3,lleJ1.f1IOTC.fI Ha ,IlBe rpynnbl. B DOJ1rapHH BbICOKa.fl 6e3pa60TH!,la nOpO:>K,naeTC.fI CO"4eTaHHeM CHJlbHOrO COKpa~eHH.fI 3aH.fITOCTH B rOCY,IlapCTBeHHOM ceKTope H cJla60ro KOMneHCHPYIO~ero pOCTa 3aH.fITOCTH B "4aCTHOM ceKTope. nOXO:lKa.fl B 06~HX "4epTaX KapTHHa, XOT.fI C ,llPyroH BpeMeHHOH TpaeKTopHeH nOTOKOB pa60"4eH CHJ1bl. HCXO,ll.fl~HX H3 rOCY,IlapCTBeHHoro ceKTopa, xapaKTepHa .llJl.fl CJ10BaKHH. B npOTHBOn0J10:lKHOCTb \lewcKoH Pecny6- JlHKe, "4aCTHbIH ceKTOp, 6bIJl 3,1leCb H3Ha"4aJlbHO HaMHoro MeHbwe. "4TO 06YCJ10BHJlO 3Ha"4HTeJlbHO 60J1ee HH3KHe nOKa3aTeJlH nepeXO,lla Ha ,llPYrYIO pa60TY Y Tep.flIO~HX MeCTO B rOCY,IlapCTBeHHOM ceKTope. ,[{ml PYMblHHH H POCCHH 60J1ee HH3Ka.fl 6e3pa60TH!,la Ha CTapTe nepeXO,lla eCTb. npe:>K,ne Bcero, pe3YJ1bTaT 60Jlee cJ1a60ro COKpa~eHH.fI 3aH.fITOCTH B rOCY,llapCTBeHHOM ceKTope. nOcJ1e,llYIO~ee nOBblweHHe 6e3pa60TH!,lbl B PYMblHHH B 1992 r. OTpa:lKaeT HeKOTopoe Y:lKeCTO"4eHHe 61O,ll:lKeTHbIX orpaHH"4eHHH, XOT.fI H3MeHeHH.fI B 3KOHOMH"4eCKOH nOJ1HTHKe 6bIJlH "4aCTbIMH H Henpe,llcKa3yeMbIMH. B !,leJ10M Mbl Ha6J1IO,llaeM TpH opMaJ1bHbIH, IOpHnH'-IeCKHH c06CTBeHHI1K, - 06bl4HO npe,QcTaBJ1eHHbIH rocY,QapCTBeHHhlM Ka3Ha'-leHCTBOM HJ1H 3aHOBO c03,QaHHoH rocYJlap- CTBeHHoH opraHH3aQHeH, - B 3Ha'-lHTeJ1bHOH CTeneHH YKnoHHncH OT KOHTPOJ1H. He 6bmo P 14.1 9,7 5.5 CnoaaKHII 9,6 5,5 4.1 60nrapHlI 8,8 3,0 3,2 PYMblHHII 3,6 2,5 2/3 POCCHII 28,7 • BeT ,AaHHbll. TIPHMCqaHHe: TIOK&3aHLI ro..'1bKO (iJo~enn.le cy6cH,ll,HK. HcrottHm::: H)"Ti&aty* National Bank of Hungary; Poland, Stalisrical Bull.nn; CSFR, IMF; SI_lda, IMF; Bulgaria, Ministry of Fina"",,; R""""""" World Bonk; R_ill. World Bank. CllHpMaM Tpe6yeTc~ BpeM~ JlJI~ OC03HaHH~ TOrO tPaKTa, t.JTO OrpaHHt.JeHH~ CTaJIH )KeCTKHMH H 6y.llYT OCTaBaTbC~ TaKOBblMH H B .llaJIbHeHWeM. KpOMe TOrO, Cy6CH.llHH COCTaBJI~JIH 06blt.JHO JIHWb O.llHO H3 H3MepeHHH )KeCTKOCTH 61O.ll)KeTHOrO OrpaHHt.JeHH~. B 60nbWHHCTBe CJIytJaeB JlpyrHe MeXaHH3Mbl, TaKHe KaK 3a.llOJI)KeHHOCTb no ynJIaTe HaJIOrOB, HeynJIaTa OTt.JHCJIeHHH no COWiaJIbHOMY CTpaXOBaHHIO, .lleWeBble Kpe.llHTHble JIHHHH, cnoco6CTBOBaJIH CM~rtJeHHIO 6IOJl)KeTHbIX orpaHHtJeHHH HJIH, no KpaHHeH Mepe, cYllleCTBeHHo CM~rtJaJIH BHJlHMYIO )KeCTKOCTb 3KoHoMHt.JecKoH nOJIHTHKH. KaK TOJIbKO H3MeHH- 3. Ta6JIHua, Bepo~THo, HeJlOO!!eHHBaeT pa3Mepbl Cy6CH.llHH tPHpMaM, nOCKOJIbKY He Yt.JHTbIBaeT cy6CHJlHH, BblJlaBaeMble t.Jepe3 KBa3H-61O.ll)KeTHble KaHaJIbl. MO)KHO O!!eHHTb MaCWTa6bl paCXO)K.lleHH~ .llaHHbIX B PYMblHHH B 1992 r.; Cy6CH.llHH H3 6lOJl)KeTaHe npeBblWaJIH 3-x npoueHTBo BBn, a BKJIlOqa~ cTaBKY npO!!eHTa H JlpyrHe KaHaJIbl, OHH COCTaBJI~JIH 12 npO!!eHTOB. 368 Be3pa6omuqa, nepecmpou'Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U PblHO'K mpyoa JUfCb Oll!.Yl,UeHH.R (t.lHPM OTHOCHTenbHO )KeCTKOCTH 61O)l)KeTHbIX OrpaHH"IeHHH, OHH Ha"lHHanH COKpal!!eHHe 3apa60THOH nnaTbl H 3aHHTOCTH. B CBeTe 3TOro HY)KHO paCCMaTpHBaTb )lHHaMHKY 3apa60THOH nnaTbl H 3aH.RTOCTH C caMoro Ha"lana nepeXO)lHOrO 3Tana. To, "ITO Mbl BH)lHM, H "ITO )leTanbHO npe)lCTaBneHO HH)Ke, 3a HeKOTopblMH orOBOp- KaMH, TO"lHO COOTBeTCTByeT MO)lenH. B Ha"lane peq,opM COKpal!!eHHe 3aH.RTOCTH 6blno He3Ha"lHTenbHbiM H "IaCTO npOHCXO)lHnO 3a C"IeT yaonbHeHHH no c06CTBeHHOMY )KenaHHIO H )lOCpO"lHOrO BbIXO)la Ha neHCHIO. 3apa60THa.R nnaTa 6blna YCTaHOBneHa nH60 HH)Ke, nH60 6nH3KO K nOTonKY, KOTOPblH )lHKTOBanC.R nonHTHKOH )lOXO)lOB (Blanchard H Layard 1992, Jackman H Pages 1993). 00 Mepe npO)lOn)KeHH.R peq,opMbl, opHeHTaUH.R Ha 60nee )lnHTenbHYIO nepcneK- THBy H Oll!.Yl,UeHH.R 60nee )KeCTKHX 61O)l)KeTHbIX orpaHH"IeHHH 3aCTaB- n.RIOT q,HPMbl 6blCTpee BblcB060)KJlaTb pa60THHKOB. t..{Hcno He)l06po- BonbHblX yaonbHeHHH yaenH"IHBaeTC.R. B TO )Ke BpeM.R 3apa60THa.R nnaTa paCTeT, HO 06bl"lHO B CB.R3H C 061!!HM COCTO.RHHeM )len Ha qlHpMe. 3aHSlTOCTb H aapaOOTHaSl nJJaTa B rOCY.ll:apCTBeHHOM CeKTope Ha pHcYHKaX 7-2 H 7-3 nOKa3aHO CHH)KeHHe BBO H npOMblUIJ1eHHOrO npOH3BO)lCTBa no CTpaHaM C 1990. BBO B H3BeCTHoH Mepe OTpa)KaeT pa3BHTHe '·IaCTHoro ceKTopa, HO B npoMblwneHHoM npOH3BO)lCTBe O"leHb CHnbHO )lOMHHHPYIOT rocY)lapCTBeHHble q,HPMbl. PHCYHKH YKa3blBalOT Ha O"leHb 3Ha"lHTenbHoe cOKpaIUeHHe npOH3BO)lCTBa, KOTopoe 3aTpoHyno Bce cTpaHbl C caMoro Ha"lana nepeXO)la. 06IUee cOKpaIUeHHe BBO C 1989 rO)la BapbHpyeT OT 18% B Oonbwe )l0 40% B BonrapHH. 06IUee cOKpaIUeHHe npoMblwneHHoro npOH3BO)lCTBa BapbHpyeT OT 31% B BeHrpHH)lo 54% B BonrapHH. JJ.a)Ke ecnH Mbl yaepeHbl S TOM, "ITO oq.lHUHanbHa.R CTaTHCTHKa npeysenH"IH- BaeT pa3Mepbl na)leHH.R BbmYCKa, Mbi Bce paBHO 06HapY)KHBaeM 3HallHTenbHoe cOKpaIUeHHe 06'beMOB npOH3BO)lCTBa, KOTopoe npHwno BCne)l 3a npe)lweCTsYIOIUHM 3aMe)lJ1eHHeM pOCTa. OPH 60Jlee 6nH3KOM paCCMOTpeHHH BH)lHa BpeMeHHa.R pa3HHua B pa3BHTHH C06blTHH no OT,!lenbHbiM CTpaHaM. B Tpex caMblX pa3BHTbiX ijeHTpanbHoesponeHCKHX CTpaHax HaH60nbwee COKpal!!eHHe BbmYCKa npOH30wno B TOT ro)l, KOr)la nepexo,!l Ha"lanC.R Bcepbe3 - 1990 r. B Oonbwe, 1991 r. B )lByx apyrHx. K Cepe)lHHe 1992 r. B Oonbwe nO.RBHnHCb npH3HaKH cTa6HnH3aijHH npoMbllllneHHoro BbmycKa H B Be3paOOmUI,Ja U nepecrnpouKa 3KOHOMUKU 8 BOcrnO'iHOU E8pone 369 PHC)'HOK 7-2. ,nHHaMHKa BBn B HeH3MeHHbIX ueHax. -5 -10 -15 -20 .6on1'lplUl nonw.ua PyMWHHlI POCCHlI ~ 1989 1991 ~ 1992 HCTO'IHHK: OOCD Emplayment O",look, July 1992, EmpWym,nt ObsmP 147 43 52 CJlOBaKHII 240 45 206 BOJlrapHII 186' 96 102 P)'MblHHfI 40 39 96 a, 1989 )J.lllT BanrapHH. l13MeHeHUe 3aHRmOCmU Ha pHcYHKe 7-4 npe,flCTaBJ1eHa ,flHHaMI1Ka 3aHHTOCTl1, BbmycKa 11 np0I13BO,flHTeJ1bHOCTI1 Tpy,fla B npOMbIWJ1eHHOCTH no pa3J1114Hb1M cTpaHaM, Ha4HHaH C 1989 r. ,flJ1H TIOJ1bWH H C 1990 r. ,flJ1H ,flPYrHX CTpaH. Bo Bcex cTpaHax, KpoMe POCCHH, cOlP ,ll0 57% B 60JlrapHH. K KOH!!Y nepBoro rO,lla cOKpargeHHe peaJlbHOH 3apa6oTHoH nJlaTb! C Y4eToM nOTpe6H- TeJlbCKHX !J,eH COCTaBHJlO OT 18 ,llO 40 npoyeHToB B 60JlrapHH, 6bIBweH LJCCP, TIOJlbWe, PYMblHHH H POCCHH. TOJlbKO B BeHrpHH, r,lle POCT YPOBHH !!eH 6b1Jl HaMHoro MeHbwe, He Ha6JlIO,llaJlOCb HJlH Ha6JlIO,llaJlOCb 04eHb He60JlbWOe CHH)f(eHHe peaJlbHOH 3apa60THOH nJlaTb!. MO)f(HO 6blJlO 6bl O)KH,llaTb, 4TO TaKoe CHH)KeHHe 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbl npOHCXO- ,llHT B pe3YJlbTaTe YCTaHOBJleHHH nOTOJlKOB 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl, 6. 3,lleCb YMecTHo nOBTopHTb, Hepe,llKo BCTpe4alOrgyIOC.fI T04KY 3peHH.fI 0 TOM, 4TO ,llaHHble 0 CHH)KeHHH 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbl 4aCTH4HO OTpa)KalOT CTaTHCTH4eCKoe HCKa)f(eHHe ¢aKTOB H3-3a ,lle¢H!!HTa, KOTOPblH 4aCTO xapaKTepH30BaJl cHTya!!HIO nepe,ll JlH6epaJlH3a!J,HeH. 'JiI'OPOTKO rOBOp.fl, 3TH ,llaHHble MorYT BeCbMa cyrgecTBeHHO npeYBeJlH4- HBaTb na,lleHHe peaJlbHOH 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbl, B03MO)KHO, 3a HCKJlI04eH- HeM LJCCP, r,lle H B npe)l(Hee BpeM.fI ,llHc6aJlaHCbI Ha TOBapHblX pblHKax 6blJlH HeBeJlHKH. 378 Be3pa6omUl,Ja, nepecmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PbIHOK mpyaa PHCYHOK 7-5 . .IJ)maMI1Ka onnaTbl Tpy.o:a. 11 6onrapHII, 4 1(8.90 - 1 1(8.93 1~.----------------------------------- --~ 100 \, /- mr-~~-\------~=-~--------­ / .' .< .' mt--~~~~=.~=.-~~~~==~~~-- ~+---~~---=~---------------------- ~+----------------------------------- 4Q8O 10111 2CIe1 _u ." 3QIIl 4081 lQ112 2QII2 3Q82 «.lII2 lQ113 _1II'.lla.lIO"I]lo6lrr. - - I'ouwIu '"lIJII. ULC-'f'IIQI.,..... ~ "IC~P, 1 KB. 1990 - 4 1(8.1992 1~.----------------------------------- .•\~ l00r-~.~.~~~~~~ ..- . - / - - .. - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10 +-------------"~:::::::::::::;/.-:/",..."'-......--~--:=-=~:::7"""--- IO+-----------~~~·=---L--------------- ~+----------------------------------- ~+----------------------------------- o~--~~--~~~--~~--~~~--~ lQ80 Ii!QIO 3QIIO 4Q8O lQ111 1!011 30111 4081 lQ112 2QW 3Q82 «.lII2 - - , ........ up..... ..,...,.&rr.-- - .. "p.lUl. _ •• ULC .,............ PyMltIHMJI. 4 KB. 90 - 4 KB. 92 ::~,,~~,~-'----=--' ~__ ~+-I__ __r_:..:.:..._.._;'_~_.~_"",._:_-_-_-_. \~_==s: o , Be3pa6omUl,JG U nepeCmpoi1KG 3KOHOMUKU 6 BOCm01.(Hoi1 E6pone 379 " nonloW8, 1 KB. 89 - 1 KB. 93 ~,,---------~---------------------- ~~--------------------------------- O~~~~~~~~ ____r-r-~~~~~~ _ ..................... -- _ _ _ ...110.2...31$.4110.1 eo.HO.S8004el.ll1.211.3I11.4U 1 U202.392.4l113.1 ,~ULC_ .._ POCCMJI, 1 KB. 91 - 1 KB. 93 ~ " I~ /\ 100 /..... ..... .,. .,. //"\ '(:' ~ ....... ....... ~~---------------------------------- 11.1 -_ 11.2 11.3 111.4 ............ 112.1 -- 1111.2 111.3 ......... - 82.4 lII3.1 " BeHrp~JJ, 1 KB. 90 - 4 KB. 92 1~r-------L-~------------------------ 120+----/.-,."..--,--.:-'-·--=-: _ ~~~-e:--,_-.-== __ _~- ,,~____~==L- loo}---~~~~---·~"~",'~~·~~··-'~~~------ ~}--------------------------------­ ~}--------------------------------­ ~~---------------------------------- 2Or----------------------------------- O~----~--~~--~~-- __ ~--~ __ --~ _...,.............. --_..,..... _ 80.1 80.2 eo.3 110.4 11.\ 11.2 11.3 11104 112.1 82.1 IIU 12.4 '.' ULC..,_._ 380 5e3paoomW,Ja, nepeCmpOU.Ka 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyaa Ta6JlHua 7-4. KOMnoHeHTbl 113MeHeHI1H Y.lleJlbHbIX 3aTpaT Ha OnJlaTY TpY.lla B npOMblWJleHHOCTI1 (8 npOl,JeHmax). 50.mapUfl 1991 1992 I1:lMeHeHHH B Ote -0,38 0,31 "bMeHeHHH peaJlbHOH :lapnJlaTbi -0,32 -0,11 +lhMeHeHHH B PC/P 0,39 0,31 -lhMeHeHHH npOH:lBO,l:lHTeJlbHOCTH TpY,I:la 0,26 -0,12 H:lMeHeHHH B Y -0,06 -0,17 H:lMeHeHHH B L -0,32 -0,06 lfCflJP 1990 1991 1992 H:lMeHeHHl'I B ULC -0,01 -0,24 -0,13 H:lMeHeHHH peaJlbHOH 3apnJlaTbi -0,06 -0,31 0,10 +H:lMeHeHHA B PC/P 0,05 -0,07 0,02 -H3MeHeHHA npOH:lBOAHTeJlbHOCTH TpYAa 0,00 -0,14 -0,02 H3MeHeHHA B Y -0,03 -0,27 -0,15 H:lMeHeHHl'I B L -0,03 -0,13 -0,13 BeHlpUfl H:lMeHeHHH 8 ULC 0,07 0,08 0,01 H:lMeHeHHA peaJlbHoif :lapnJlaTbi -0,02 -0,03 -0,03 +H3MeHeHHA B PC/P 0,06 0,01 0,10 -H3MeHeHHA npoH3BOAHTeJlbHOCTH TpYAa -0,04 -0,10 0,06 H3MeHeHHA B Y -0,09 -0,24 -0,10 H3MeHeHHH 8 L -0,05 -0,14 -0,16 flO.llbUia H:lMeHeHHA B ULC -0,19 0,30 0,16 H3MeHeHHl'I peaJlbHOH 3apnJlaTbi -0,39 0,03 0,14 +H3MeHeHHA B PC/P -0,02 0,18 0,12 -H3MeHeHHH npOH:lBOAHTeJlbHOCTH TpYAa -0,22 -0,08 0,10 H3MeHeHHH B Y -0,32 -0,19 0,01 H3MeHeHHl'I B L -0,10 -0,11 -0,09 HCTO'lHHK: National Statistical Bulletins and World Bank ULC - YAeJlbHble :laTpaTbi Ha OnJiaTY TpYAa, Pc HHAeKC nOTpe6HTeJlbCKHX ~eH, P - HHAeKC ~eH npOH:lBOAHTeJleH, Y - 06'beM npOMbllllJleHHOrO npOH:lBOACTBa, L 'IHCJleHHOCTb pa6oTHHKOB B npOMblIllJleHHOCTH. KOTopble Be.llYT K HenOJlHOH I1HueKca!JHH. VI .lleifcTBHTeJlbHO, HMeHHO .llJlH 3TOf'O 11 6blJll1 BBe.lleHbl TaKl1e nOTOJlKI1. Ho nepBOHa'-IaJlbHO BO Bcex CTpaHax, KpOMe BeHlpl1l1, 3apa60THaH nJlaTa 6blJla YCTaHOBJleHa Hl1)1(e nOTOJlKOB, onpe.lleJleHHblX f'OcY.llapCTBeHHoH nOJlI1TI1KOii 3apa60THoii nJlaTbl. 3TO MO)l(eT 6blTb OTHeceHO Ha C'-leT pH.lla npl1'u1H, Hal160Jlee Ba)l(HblMI1 113 KOTOPblX 6blJll1 OCTOPO)l(HOCTb B YCJlOBI1HX HeOnpe.lleJleH- HOCTI1 11 )l(eJlaHl1e nO.ll.llep)l(aTb ypOBeHb 3aliHTOCTI1; o6e npH411Hbi 6blJlH Be3pa6omut/a U nepecmpoilKa 3KOHOMUKU 6 Bocmo'moil E6pone 381 Bbl3BaHbi cOKpalJ!eHl1eM 11I1KBI1AHbIX cpeAcTB (Calvo 11 Coricelli 1993). 3a nepBOHallallbHblM CHH:)KeHl1eM peallbHoH 3apa6oTHoH nllaTbl c Y4eToM nOTpe611TellbcKHx !!eH nOClleAOBallO 4aCTI14HOe BOCCTaHOBlle- Hl1e ee ypOBHH. Ho K KOH!!Y 1992 r. peallbHaH 3apnllaTa C Y4eToM nOTpe6HTellbCKI1X !.!eH Bce elJ!e 6bIJ1a Ha 20-35 npo!!eHTOB HH)I(e ee npeApe~opMeHHoro ypOBHH; HCKll104eHHeM BHOBb HBllHeTCH BeHrpHSI, rAe peallbHaH 3apa6oTHaH nllaTa C Y4eTOM nOTpe6HTellbCKI1X !!eH n04TH He H3MeHI111aCb. ,!lHHaMHKa peallbHOH 3apa6oTHOH nllaTbl C Y4eTOM !.!ml np0l13BOAHTelleH OTpa)l(aeT YBeJ1114eHHe KllHHa Me)l(AY nOTpe6HTellb- CKI1MH !!eHaMI1 H !!eHaMI1 np0l13BOAI1TelleH (YCKopeHHbIH pOCT nepBblX 11 OTCTaBaHl1e nOClleAHHX), KOTopoe 06YCllOBlleHO npOAOll)l(alOlJ!l1MCH npo!.!eCCOM llH6epallH3a!!HI1 !.!eH. D03TOMY, nOClle nepBOHa4allbHoro CHH)I(eHI1H, peallbHaH 3apnllaTa C Y4eTOM !!eH np0l13BOAHTelleH BblpOClla 6blCTpee, 4eM peallbHaH 3apnllaTa C Y4eTOM nOTpe6HTellb- CKHX !!eH. B TO BpeMH KaK peallbHaH 3apnllaTa c Y4eTOM nOTpe6l1Tellb- CKI1X !!eH B BOllrapHH COCTaBllHeT 50 npO!!eHTOB OT Aope~opMeHHoro ypOBHH, peallbHaH 3apnllaTa c Y4eToM !!eH npOH3BOAI1TelleH Bblwe, 4eM 6bllla nepeA Ha4allOM nepeXOAHoro 3Tana. PeallbHaH 3apnllaTa C Y4eTOM !!eH np0l13BOAI1TelleH paBHa 100 npO!!eHTaM npeApe~opMeHHo­ ro ypOBHH B DOllbwe, 90 npO!!eHTaM B 6bIBweH YCCP, 110 npO!!eHTaM B BeHrp1111 H 80 npO!!eHTaM B PYMbIHI1I1. Ta6J1Hua 7-5. BanoBaH npH6blllb K 06'beMY peallH3a!!I1H 1989-92 rr.,% CTpaHbI 1989 1990 1991 1992 BeHrpml 5,0 3,3 -1,1 nonbwa 28,0 23,3 6,9 3,0 4C4lP 9,2 9,4 9,8 CnoBaKull 14,4 6,1 0,8 60nrapull 34,7 14,7 8,2 -2,4 PYMblHHIl 4,2 3,7 HCTO'!llUX: IMF, World Bank; GNS, National Bani: of Ilungary ,!lo6aBHM, 4TO AHHaMHKa YAellbHblX 3aTpaT Ha OnllaTY TpYAa OTpa)l(aeT CHH)I(eHl1e npOH3BOAHTellbHOCTH TPYAa. B HTOre YAellbHble 3aTpaTbl Ha OnllaTY TpYAa He MeH.fIIOTC.fI Hlll1 nOBbIWaIOTC.fI no cpaBHe- HHIO C npeApe~opMeHHblM ypOBHeM. 060pOTHaH CTopOHa 3Toro HBlleHHH - 04eHb HI13KHe npl16blllH. DOBeAeHHH ~I1PM B 0611aCTH 3apa6oTHOH nllaTbl H 3aHHTOCTI1 6blllO TaKHM, 4T06bl pacnpeAell.fITb 382 Be3pa6omUl4a, nepecmpoulw 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa Me>KJlY 3aHHTblMH 60JlbUJYIO '1aCTb ,QOCTynHoH npH6blJlH. C Y'IeTOM BCeX Ha,QJle~a~HX npe,QOCTepe~eHHH a ,QOCTOBepHOCTH H3MepeHHH npH6blJlH, Ta6JlHua 7-5 HCHO nOKa3blBaeT pe3Koe CHH~eHHe ,QOJlH BanoBoH npH6blJlH B CTOHMOCTH peaJlH30BaHHoH npo,QYKllHH. 3a HCKJlIO'IeHHeM YeUJcKoH Pecny6JlHKH,Q0 1992 r. nOKa3aTeJleM MaCUJTa- 60B na,QeHHH npH6blJleH B nOJlbUJe HBJlHeTCH TO. 'ITO K Ha'laJlY 1992 r. 60Jlee 45 npolleHToB nOJlbCKHX ¢HPM CTOHJlH 6bl nepe,Q Heo6xo,QH- MOCTblO JlHKBH,QaUHH. eCJlH 6bl 6blJla BBe,QeHa npoUe.QYpa 6aHKpoTcTBa (Miszei 1993). XOTH Mbl He npHBO,QHM B Ta6JlHue ,QaHHbIX no POCCHH. 6blCTPblH paCT lleH npOH3BO,QHTeJleH no cpaBHeHHIO C nOTpe6HTeJlbCKHMH UeHaMH B 1992 r. H pa3MepbI UJOKa peaJlbHOH 3apa6oTHoH nJlaTbl C Y'IeTOM nOTpe6HTeJlbCKHX lleH KOMneHcHpYlOTCH 3,QeCb 3Ha'lHTeJlbHbIM na,QeHHeM npoH3Bo,QHTeJlbHOCTH TpY,Qa. KaK 3TO HH napa,QoKCaJlbHO, HO Mbl Mo~eM Ha6JlIO,QaTb C,QBHr B nOJlb3Y npH6blJlH ,Qa~e B TO BpeMH, Kor,Qa HeJlernO onpe,QeJlHTb, KTO ~e HBJlHeTCH KanHTaJlHCTaMH. Mo~eM JlH Mbl paCCKa3aTb 60JlbUJe a ¢aKTopax, onpe,QeJlHIO- ~HX 3apa60THYIO nJlaTY, cpaBHHTeJlbHOH 3Ha'lHMOCTH 3apa6oTHOH nJlaTbl H 3aHHTOCTH npH npHHHTHH peUJeHHH a nOBe,QeHHH ¢HPMbl Ha pblHKe TpY,Qa, H 0 pOJlH YCJlOBHH caMoro pblHKa TPY,Qa? )J;a~e eCJlH Mbl He HMeeM e~e TO'lHOH KapTHHbl, MbI HMeeM Tenepb HeCKOJlbKO KJlIO'IeH K OTBeTaM. Bo Bcex CJlY'IaHX 3apnJlaTa B npHHYHne peryJlHpOBaJlaCb npaBHTeJlbCTBaMH nocpe,QcTBoM nOJlHTHKH ,QOX0,l:\0B. npe,QCTaBJlHeTCH, 'ITO 3TO ,QOJl~HO 6blJl0 YMeHbUJaTb pa36poc B H3MeHeHHHX 3apnJlaTbi no ceKTopaM H OTpaCJlHM. Ho 60Jlee ,Qe3arpempOBaHHblH aHaJlH3, KaK, HanpHMep, Ha 6a3e BeHrepCKHX OTpaCJleBblX ,QaHHblx, YKa3blBaeT Ha 60JlbUJHe pa3JlH'IHH H CHJlbHble OTpaCJleBbie 3¢¢eKTbl. nO,Q06Hble pacxo~,QeHHH Mbl Haxo,QHM H Me~,QY CTpaHaMH. B POCCHH peaJlbHaH 3apa6oTHaH nJlaTa e,QBa C,QBHHYJlaCb aT ypOBHH, CJlO~HBUJerOCH B pe3YJlbTaTe UeHOBoro UJOKa B HHBape 1992 r. Bne'laTJleHHe HBHO TaKOBO, 'ITO pa60l.JHe COrJlaCHJlHCb CO CTOJlb He:3Hal.JHTeJlbHbIM nOBblUJeHHeM 3apa6oTHoH nJlaTbl B o6MeH Ha cTa6HJlbHYIO 3aHHTOCTb. 3TO Mo~eT TaK~e 6blTb pe3YJlbTaTOM npe,QnpHBaTH3aUHoHHb1X o~H,QaHHH, Kor,Qa pa60THHKaM npe,QCTaBJlHeTCH, l.JTO nOCJle npHBaTH3a- yHH 3apa60THaH nJlaTa 3Ha'lHTeJlbHO B03pacTeT. TaM, r,Qe MaKp03KoHO- MH'IeCKaH H CTpYKTypHaJl nOJlHTHKa 6blJlH HenOCJle,QoBaTeJlbHbl - PYMbIHI1J1, - TPY,Q0YCTpoeHHble pa60l.Jl1e 60JlbUJe Tpe6oBaJll1 nOBblUJe- HI1J1 3apnJlaTbl, '1eM coXpaHeHI1J1 YPOBHH 3aHHTOCTH. nOHBJlHeTCH HeO~I1,QaHHaR KOppeJlRUHJI Me~,QY YCJlOBHJlMI1 pblHKa TpY,Qa 11 H3MeHeHI1J1MI1 3apa60THoH nJlaTbl. COrJlaCHO O,QHOH 113 Be3pa6omULIa U nepeCmpOfiKa 3KOHOMUKU 6 Bocmot,/Hofi E6pone 383 T04eK 3peHH.!I, CTpaHbl C 60llee J,!!enpblMH nOC06H.!IMH no 6e3pa60THlJe xapaKTepH3YIOTCfI 60llee CHllbHblM naBlleHHeM Ha 3apa60THYIO nllaTY (Burda 1993), 0 4eM CBHneTeJ1bCTBYIOT pa3llH4HfI Me)K):tY BeHrpHeH H l.JelUcKoH Pecny6llHKoH. KTO-TO, TeM He MeHee, MOiKeT cnpOCHTb, flBll.!IeTC.!I llH TaKaH CS.!I3b npH4HHHOH CS.!I3blO. BblCOKHe K03cpqmlJHeHTbI S03MeJ,!!eHHfI noc06HeM TPynOSblX nOxonOB nllfl HeKOTopblX KaTeropHH pa60THHKOS, npeHMYJ,!!eCTBeHHO, HeKsallHcpHlJHpOSaHHblX, B BeHrpHI1 He MOryr 06'bHCHHTb npOnOlliKl1TellbHOCTb 6e3pa60THlJbl HllH H3MeHe- HHe COCTasa 6e3pa60THbiX H He npenCTaBll.!IIOTCR MOIJ!HblM cpaKTopOM nllHTellbHoro B03neHCTBH.!I. Ho B 60llee 061J!eM nllaHe, RCHO, 4TO ypOSHH noc0611H no 6e3pa60THlJe HH3KH so Bcex CTpaHax, rne K03CPCPHlJHeHTbI B03MelJ!eHHH pe3KO CHl1iKalOTCfI 3a npenellaMI1 KopOTKoro nepHOna, KOTOPblH 06bI4HO YCTaHaSllHsaeTCfI pa3lll14HbIMI1 peiKHMaMH noc0611H no 6ropa60Tl1lJe. (Scarpetta, Boeri, and Reuters- wand 1993). BeHrepcKHe naHHble CSl1neTeJ1bCTBYIOT 0 nOCTaT04HO Cl1llbHOH CBfl3H Me)K):tY nepeMeHHblMI1 napaMeTpaMH pernoHallbHblx PbIHKOS Tpyna H H3MeHeHH.!IMH 3apa60THoH nllaTbl, H pernoHallbHblH ypoBeHb 6e3pa60TI1lJbl nOKa3blBaeT Tpanl1lJHOHHYIO 06paTHYIO CSR3b C 3apa60T- HOH nllaToH. B l.Jexl1l1 11 CllOSaKI1H nBHiKeHHe 3apa60THoH nllaTbl K npeiKHeMY ypOSHIO TaKiKe YKa3blsaeT Ha CHllbHoe S03neHCTsHe pernoHallbHoH 6e3pa60THlJbl. 0606J,!!eHHble naHHble 11 naHHble no OTnenbHblM cpl1pMaM S OCHOBHblX oTpacnRx npoMblwlleHHocTH POCCI1H CBHneTellbCTBYIOT 0 TOM, 4TO 3apa60THaH nllaTa 6blJla 4yaCTBI1TellbHa K MaClUTa6aM COKpalJ!eHHfI npOH3S0nCTBa, 11 OTHOlUeHHe pernOHallbHblX H3MeHeHHH 3apa60THOH nllaTbl K CKoppeKTHposaHHOMY YPOBHIO 6e3pa60THlJbl (Te. KTO HJ,!!eT pa60TY, nlllOC OTnpaSlleHHble B SbIHYiK- neHHblH OTnYCK H BbIHYiKneHHbie pa60TaTb HenOllHoe pa604ee SpeM.!I) xapaKTepH3yeTC.fI clla60H 06paTHOH 3aBHCHMOCTblO; 60llee BbICOKI1H yposeHb He3aHflTocTH 060pa4HBaeTCH MeHblUHMI1 H3MeHeHHflMH B 3apa60THOH nnaTe. B BOllrapHH pernOHallbHble naHHble 3a 1991 H 1992 rOnbl pacKpbIBalOT pa3BI1SalOJ,!!YIOC.fI TpanHlJHOHHYIO 06paTHYIO CBR3b Me)K):tY noseneHHeM OTHocHTellbHoH 3apa60THoH nllaTbl no pernOHaM H pernoHallbHoH 6e3pa60TH!JeH. Be3pa6omULia U ::;po6eH'b on.flam'bl mp::;oa 6 '-IacmHOM ceKmope nOllY4HTb T04Hble naHHble 0 pa3Mepax 4aCTHoro ceKTopa 11 o6'beMe BbInYCKa S HeM seCbMa CllOiKHO, nOCKOllbKY ocpl1lJl1aJ1bHafi CTaTHCTI1Ka 3aHI1iKaeT pa3Mepbl 4aCTHorO ceKTopa TaK iKe, KaK 11 ero pOCT. B 4aCTHOCTI1, l-mcpopMa!,!I-1.fI 06 04eHb He60llblUHX no pa3MepaM cpHpMax, 384 Be3pa6omu/4a, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyda KOTopble, rllaBHblM 06pa30M, H BllHHIOT Ha nOKa3aTellb pOCTa '1aCTHOro ceKTopa, HBllHeTCH HenOllHoH. 3HaH 0 paCXO)l(JleHHHX B CTaTHCTH'IeC- KHX .QaHHbIX, Mbl B 3TOM pa3.Qelle '1aCTH'IHO nOllaraeMCH Ha pe3YllbTaTbi Ha611IO.QeHHH. Ta611Hua 7-1 Y)I(e cO.Qep)l(HT HaUJH OlJeHKH 3aHHTOCTH B '1aCTHOM ceKTope no rO.QaM H CTpaHaM. YMo3pHTellbHo Mbl MorllH 6bl conOCTaBHTb 3TH OlJeHKH C HHcpopMalJHeH 0 BKlla.Qe '1aCTHOro ceKTopa B C03.QaHHe BBft O.QHaKO TO'lHO 3TO C.QellaTb HeB03MO)l(HO, TaK KaK OlJeHKH 3aHHTOCTH UJHPOKO BapbHpYIOT H '1aCTO BeCbMa H3MeH'IHBbl. Ho TeM He MeHee, .QaHHble no 3aHHTOCTH .QalOT HaM B03MO)l(HOCTb npH611H- 3HTellbHOH OlJeHKH H3MeHeHHH 3Toro nOKa3aTellH. TaK, 3aHHTOCTb B '1aCTHOM ceKTope nOBbICHllaCb BO Bcex CTpaHax. '1aCTO C nOMOl!!blO HBHblX HllH HeHBHblX HallorOBblX llbrOT. HaHBblCUJeH OTMeTKH 3TOT ypOBeHb .QOCTHr B nOllbUJe H BeHrpHH. 3aHHTOCTb B '1aCTHOM ceKTope 06eHX CTpaH COCTaBHlla 6011ee 35 npo!J,eHToB. OTHocHTellbHo nOllbUJH 3TO cBH.QeTellbCTByeT 0 TOM, 'ITO HMellO MeCTo paCUJHpeHHe cellbCKOX03HHCTBeHHoro ceKTopa, KOTOPblH B OCHOBHOM HBllHeTCH '1aCTHbIM. A OTHOCHTellbHO BeHrpHH - 0 HallH'IHH B npe,Abl,AYl!!He rO,Abl3HaYHTellbHoro no pa3MepaM HeperHCTpHpyeMoro '1aCTHOro ceKTopa 3KOHOMHKI1, KOTOPblH nOCTeneHHO CTall llerallbHblM 7 H nonOllHHll .QaHHble cTaTHcTHKH. B CTpaHax C HH3KHM ypOBHeM Tpa.QHlJHH npe.QnpHHHMaTellbCTBa, TaKHX KaK BOllrapHH, PYMblHHH, POCCHH H CllOBaKHH, POCT 3al-IHTOCTH B '1aCTHOM ceKTope He3Ha'lHTe- lleH, H 3aHHTOCTb B .QaHHOM ceKTope HH)I(e 10-25 npOlJeHToB. TOllbKO B POCCHH POCT 3aHHTOCTH B '1aCTHOM ceKTope OTpa)l(aeT 3Ha'lHTellbHYIO npHBaTH3alJHIO cpe.QHHX H 6011bUJHX npe.QnpHHTHH_ CYMMapHble nOKa3aTellH CKpblBalOT Ba)l(Hble CTPYKTypHble H3MeHeHHH- YMeHbUJeHHe pa3Mepa CTaporo '1aCTHOro ceKTopa H pa3BHTHe HOB oro. YaCTb nepBOHa'lallbHO CYl!!eCTBOBaBUJero '1aCTHOro ceKTopa HllH HcnOllb30Balla 611aronpHHTHble B03MO)l(HOCTH, HMeBUJHe MeCTO B COlJHallHCTH'IeCKHX 3KOHOMHKax, HllH 6bllla TeCHO CBH3aHa C rocY.Qap- CTBeHHbIMH npe.QnpHHTHHMH. HeY.QHBHTellbHO, 'ITO 3Ta '1aCTb '1aCTHOro 7. no ocpHlJHallbHblM .QaHHbIM B cepe.QHHe 80-x IT. B '1aCTHOM ceKTope 6bIllO 3aHHTO 6011ee 4-x npOlJeHTOB TPY.QOBbIX pecypcoB, HO HCClle.QOBaHHH pacnpe.QelleHHH BpeMeHH nOKa3allH, 'ITO .QOllH '1aCTHOrO ceKTopa COCTaBllHlla nO'lTH 33 npolJeHTa cOBoKynHoro pa60'lero BpeMemt (Kornai, 1993). Be3pa6omU/.Ja U nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU (J Bocmo'mou E(Jpone 385 ceKTopa HcnblTblBaeT TpYAHOCTH. B TIOJlbWe, rne MO>KHO T04HO onpeneJlHTb 3TH CTPYKTypHble H3MeHeHHH, B 1990 r. 6aHKpoTcTBa H npHoCTaHoBKH neflTeJlbHOCTH "cTapblx" qlHpM npe06J1anaJiH Han nOHBJleHHeM HOBblX qlHpM B Te4eHHe n04TH Bcero rona, TaK 4TO 4HCJlO pa30pHBWHXCfI qlHpM COCTaBHJlO 3a ron npHMepHo 90 npo!,!eHTOB OT 4HCJla BHOBb C03naHHbiX qlHpM. AHaJlOrn4HO B POCCHH yMeHbweHHe 4HCJla KoonepaTHBOB 03Ha4aeT nOpa>KeHHe "CTaporo" 4aCTHoro ceKTopa. Kop04e roBOPfl, B OCHOBHOM pOCT 4HCJla 3aHflTbiX B 4aCTHOM ceKTope npoHcxonHT 3a C4eT HOBblX qlHpM, 4aCTb KOTOPblX B03HHKaeT B pe3YJlbTaTe HeKoTopblX H3MeHeHHH IOpHnH4ecKoro CTaTyca. TIpHBaTH3aUHH CKa3bIBaeTCH Ha pOCTe He60JlbWHX no pa3MepaM npennpHHTHH P03HH4HOH ToprOBJIH. TI04TH Bce nOflBHBWHeCH qlHpMbl, COCTaBJIHlOlJ!He 60JlbWHHCTBO· OT YKa3aHHbiX MaJlblX qlHPM. 6blJlH npHBaTH3HpoBaHbI nocpenCTBOM Cna4H B apeHJlY HJlH KOM6HHa!,!HH C BblKynoM nOJlH, HJlH npOna>KH C aYKUHoHoB (ECE, 1993). flpupooa HO(J'b1X ¢UPM 'L{aCmHOZO ceKmopa HaWH naHHble rOBopfiT 0 npe06J1anaHHH B 4aCTHOM ceKTope He60Jlb- WHX, 4aCTO OCHOBaHHblX Ha nOMaWHeM x03f1ikTBe qlHpM C orpaHH4eH- HblM HCnOJlb30BaHHeM HaeMHoro Tpyna, 3aHHMalOlJ!HxcfI, KaK npaBHJlO, TOprOBJleH. OHH cBHneTeJlbCTBYIOT 0 Ha4aJlbHOH CTanHH pa3BHTHfI, Korna "WYM", BbI3BaHHbIH JlH6epaJlH3aUHeH ueH H Bbl60p04HbIM oCJla6J1eHHeM ToproBoro KOHTPOJlfl, cnoc06CTByeT nOJlY4eHHIO cBepx HOpMaJlbHOH npH6bIJIH, a MeJIKHe npennpHHHMaTeJIH HcnoJlb3YlOT npeHMYlJ!eCTBa BpeMeHHblX peHT H PblH04HbiX HHW. 3TO 06bl4HO cOnpOBO>KnaeTCfI coxpaHeHHeM pa60Tbi B rocynapCTBeHHoM ceKTope, nOCKOJIbKY TaKHM 06pa30M OTneJlbHble pa60THHKH orpa>KnalOT ce6f1 OT pHCKa B03MO>KHbIX nOTepb B nepexonHblH nepHOn. '1epe3 HeKoTopoe BpeMfI, KaK TOJlbKO OTHOCHTeJlbHble ueHbI YCTaHaBJlHBalOTcfI Ha onpeneJIeHHOM ypOBHe, BpeMeHHble BblCOKHe npH6blJlH cOKpalJ!alOTcH, OCTaBJlHfI 60JlbWYlO 4aCTb pa6oTHHKOB cKeHHH 4aCTHblH ceKTop 3KOHOMHKH npenCTaBmleT C060H cK,!:teHHeM ¢HPM, .o.a)Ke eCJIH no 06"beKTHBHbIM npH4HHaM HX 4HCJIO TPy.o.HO H3MepHTb. POCT 3aHflTOCTH B 3THX qlHpMax HMeeT MeCTO He 60JIee, 4eM B Te4eHHe .o.BYX JIeT CO .o.HfI 06pa30BaHHfI qlHpMbl. OrpaHI14eHHaflI1H¢opMaYI1f1 0 3apa60THOH nJIaTe no.o.TBep>K,!:ta- eT MHeHHe 0 TOprOBJIe H c¢epe yCJIyr KaK 0 c¢epax MeHee npHBJIeKa- TeJIbHbIX, 4eM pa60Ta B rocy.o.apCTBeHHOM ceKTope. Dpe.o.CTaBJIeHHe 0 COOTHoweHHH 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl B 4aCTHOM H rocy.o.apCTBeHHOM ceKTopax 3KOHOMI1KH .o.aeT Ta6JIHua 7-6. AHaJIH3H- PYfI 3TH .o.aHHble, CJ1e.o.yeT nOMHHTb, 4TO, KaK npaBHJIO, 4aCTHbie ¢HPMbl He npe.o.OCTaBJIfllOT HHKaKHX, JIH60 npe.o.OCTaBJIfllOT He3Ha4HTeJIbHbie noc06HfI, COYHaJIbHble BblnJIaTbl HJIH JIbrOTbl no cpaBHeHHIO C rocy.o.ap- CTBeHHbIMH, TaK 4TO paBHblH 4aCTHOMY ceKTOpy ypOBeHb 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl B rocy.o.apCTBeHHOM ceKTope flBJIfleTCfI, BepOfiTHO, 60JIee npHBJIeKaTeJIbHbiM. MaKCHMaJIbHO He.o.eHe)KHble noc06HfI MOryT COCTaBJIHTb .0.0 35 npoyeHToB 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl, KaK B POCCHH (Commander H Jackman, 1993) HJlH KaKoi1-m-t60 UpyrOH CTpaHe. rue He.o.eHe)KHaH COCTaBJIfllOLgaH MeHbwe. HO TaK)Ke 3Ha4HMa. AHaJlH3 .o.aHHblX no BeHrpHH H DOJIbWe nOKa3blBaeT 60JIbWHe pa3JIH4HfI B CTeneHH pacnpe.o.eJIeHHfI noc06HH B rocy.o.apcTBeHHoM H 4aCTHOM ceKTopax. • KpoMe POCCHH, B .o.pymx CTpaHax cpe.o.HHH ypoBeHb 3apa60T- HOH nJIaTbl 3Ha4HTeJIbHO He pa3JIH4aeTCfI no .o.BYM ceKTopaM 3KOHOMH- KH. B DOJIbWe, r.o.e .o.aHHble C06HpaJII1Cb B Te'-leHHe Tpex JIeT, npaKTH- '-IeCKH He Ha6JIIO.o.aJIOCb H3MeHeHHH B 06ij!eM COOTHoweHHH Me>K,!:tY ypOBHflMH OnJIaTbI Tpy.o.a B rocy.o.apcTBeHHoM H 4aCTHOM ceKTopax 3a 1991, 1992 H nepBYIO nOJIOBHHY 1993 IT. 3apa60THafi nJIaTa B '-IaCTHOM ceKTope OCTaBaJI2Cb npHMepHO Ha ypoBHe 90-95 npoyeHToB OT 3apa60THoH nJIaTbl B rocy.o.apCTBeHHOM ceKTope; .o.JIfi npOMbIWJIeH- HblX npe.o.npHflTHH 3TO OTfiOWeHl1e 6blJIO HeCKOJIbKO HI1)Ke. Me>K,!:tY KaTerOpl1HMH pa60THI1KOB "6eJIbIX" H "CI1HI1X BOPOTHH4KOB" TaK)Ke cYLgeCTByeT He60JIbWOe pa3JII1'-1l1e B ypoBHe .o.aHHoro K03¢¢I1Yl1eHTa • .LJ:JIfi BeHrp1111 Mbl MO)f(eM oCYLgecTBHTb KOHTPOJIb 3a nOKa3aTeJIflMH 60JIee TO'-lHO. Pe3YJIbTaTbi nOKa3b1Ba1OT, 4TO 3apa60THafi nJIaTa, 3apa60ToK 11 .O.OXO.O. - Bce OHH Bblwe B '-IaCTHbIX ¢HpMax, HO B nOCJIe.o.- HI1X 60JIee {lJII1TeJIbHbIH pa60'-lI1H .o.eHb, 11 n03TOMY ¢aKTI1'-1eCKI1H ypOBeHb nO'-laCOBOH OnJIaTbl HH)f(e. DOCJIe.o.YIOLgI1H aHaJIH3 .o.aHHblX 06 ypOBHe 3apa60THoH nnaTbl pa3JIH4HbiX CTpaH nOKa3blBaeT He3Ha'-lI1TeJIbHble OTJII1'-1I1f1 B pa3pe3e 5e3pa6omulja U nepecmpoiJ-Ka 3KOHOMUKU (I Bocmo'l.lHou E(lpone 387 ceKTopOB 3KOHOMHKH, TaK '-ITO T011bKO Ma11a.fl '-IaCTb pa311H'-IHH B ypOBHe 3apa60THOH n11aTbl MO)l(eT 6blTb 06b.flCHeHa pa311H'-IHflMH ,I:lBy}{ CeKTOpOB 3KOHOMHKH B TaKHX CTpaHaX, KaK B011rapH.fI, BeHrpH.fI H TIo11bWa. Ba)I(HbiM .fIB11.fleTCfI pa3Mep qmpMbl H pa311H'-IH.fI B Be11H'-IHHe 060pOTa, npH'-IeM pa3Mep 3apa60THOH n11aTbl 06bl'-lHO np.flMO 3aBHCHT OT pa3Mepa qlHpMbl B B011rapHH H BeHrpHH, HO He B TIo11bwe. TIpe,l:l- CTaB11.fleTC.fI, '-ITO 3,1:leCb CYlJ!eCTByeT c11a6afl, HO 06b.flCHHMa.fl CB.fI3b ypOBH.fI 3apa60THOH n11aTbl C ypOBHeM 06pa30BaHH.fI H ,I:lPyrnMH npoq,eCCHOHa11bHbIMH xapaKTepHCTHKaMH, '-ITO .fIB11.fleTC.fI Ha'-la11bHblM MOMeHTOM pa3pblBa C COOTBeTCTBYlOl!!HM ypOBHeM on11aTbl TpY,I:la pa311H'-IHbIX npoq,eCCHH B rOCY,I:lapCTBeHHOM ceKTope. TIO'-lTH BO Bcex c11yqa.flx 3apa60THa.fl n11aTa )l(eHIJ!HH HH)I(e. 06C11e,l:lOBaHH.fI nOKa3blBa- lOT, '-ITO BbmYCKHHKH YHHBepCHTeTOB COCTaB11.flIOT 6011bIDYIO ,I:10111O npe,l:lnpHHHMaTe11eH B cq,epe COBpeMeHHblX yC11yr H npOH3BO,l:lCTBeHHOM ceKTope, H TaKoe paCnpe,l:le11eHHe B KaKOH-TO Mepe 06bflCH.fIeT (,I:l11.fl B011rapHH H TI011bIDH, r,l:le HMeIOTC.fI COOTBeTCTBYlOlJ!He ,I:laHHble) 6011ee BblCOKHH ypOBeHb on11aTbl TpY,I:la 11Hg C BblCIDHM 06pa30BaHHeM, oc06eHHO BblCOKYIO ,I:10111O 11Hg C 3apa60TKOM, 3aBHC.fIIJ!HM OT pe3Y11bTa- TOB ,I:leflTe11bHOCTH q,HPMbl. Ho B ge11oM, CB.fI3b on11aTbl C ypOBHeM 06pa30BaHH.fI H ,I:lpyrnMH npoq,eCCHOHa11bHbIMH xapaKTepHCTHKaMH OCTaeTC.fI He3Ha'-lHTe11bHoH. Ta611Hua 7-6. CooTHoIDeHHe 3apa60THoH n11aTbl: '-IaCTHblH ceKTop/ro- cY,I:lapCTBeHHblH ceKTOp B 1991-1993 rr. 1991 1992 1993 BeHrpHR: aapa60THaR nnaTa 1,09 0.93 - nO'laCO&aR aapa60THaR nnaTa 1.02 nOJIbwa: - o6111aR aapa60THaR nnaTa 0,93 0,92 0.86 - "CHHHe BOPOTHH'IKH" 0.89 0.92 - "6eJlble BOPOTHR'IKH" 1,04 0.99 YOI>P 1.08 EionrapHR 1.16-1,5 POCCRR 1.61 1,82 ~ HeT )},aHHhTX. \{CTO'llIHKH: BeHrpu, 1m ",,,,.HhIe 3a ...pT (11:5110 (993). 1993 Ja JIlIBaPb (Vilagi (993); non oW,, GUS; t{CP, F"""ral Statis.ic om",; bonr.pHJf, World Bani: Survey Resuh. (jan. (993); POCCI!~. World Bani: SW'V¢y (Dec. 1m) and VCIOM Dala. March 1993. 388 Be3pa6omUlIa, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U Ph/HOK mpyda Pa3.!lU'lUR no cmpaHaM U (J dUHaMUKe KaKHM 06pa30M, KpOMe CCblJlKH Ha Ha4aJlbHbie YCJlOBHH H oc06eHHo Ha npe:lKHHH pa3Mep 4aCTHoro ceKTopa 3KOHOMHKH, Mbl MO:lKeM 06'bHCHHTb pa3JlH4HH B pa3pe3e OT,lJ.eJlbHblX CTpaH? B 3TOH CTa,IJ.HH Mbl MO:lKeM OTBa:lKHTbCH Ha HeKOTopble HaYllHbie npe,IJ.nOJlO:lKeHHH. "nJlOXHe" HCXO,IJ.bl pecpopM, KOTopble Bblpa:lKalOTCH B YCTOH4HBO CJla60M pa3BHTHH 4aCTHoro ceKTopa, MOryT 6blTb npHnHcaHbl pa3JlH4HHM B 06IJ!e3KOHO- MH4eCKOH cHTyalJHH. O,IJ.HO H3 HHX, KOTopoe BblHBJlHeTCH npH 0606111eHHH OnblTa BOllrapHH, KaCaeTCH H3llHWHe CHJlbHOH peaKlJHH rOCY,IJ.apCTBeHHoro ceKTopa Ha paHHeM 3Tane npOBe,IJ.eHHH pecpopM. 3Ha4HTeJlbHOe COKpalJ!eHHe pa604HX MeCT B rocynapcTBeHHOM ceKTope conpOBO:lK,lJ.a- JlaCb 3Ha4HTeJlbHbiM H3MeHeHHeM HaJlOrOBOH nOJlHTHKH H CHH:lKeHHeM YPOBHH rOCY,IJ.apCTBeHHbIX paCXO,IJ.OB. 3TH pelJeCCHOHHbie 3cpcpeKTbi nOTonHllH B03MO:lKHOCTb 6blCTporo pOCTa 4aCTHoro ceKTopa. HanpHMep, B CJlOBaKHH, a TaK:lKe pernOHax C Me,IJ.JleHHO pa3BHBalOlllHMCH 4aCTHbiM ceKTopOM, TaKHX KaK ceBepO-BOCTOK BeHrpHH, pOCT 4aCTHoro ceKTopa C,lJ.ep:lKHBaJlCH pernOHallbHblMH HllH MecTHblMH oco6eHHOCTflMH. npOCTeHWHH npHMep, KOr,IJ.a npolJecc pa3pyweHHfI rOCY,IJ.apCTBeHHoro ceKTopa npOHCXO,IJ.HT B paMKax KOHKpeTHoro pernOHa; B 3KOHOMHKe KOToporo ,lJ.OMHHHpyeT KaKaH-JlH60 O,IJ.Ha OTpaCJlb, H B 3TOM CllY4ae ynap no perHOHaJlbHOH 3KOHOMHKe, YCHJleHHblH HeM06HJlbHOCTbIO TPY,lJ.OBblX pecypCOB, OKa3blBaeTCH BeCbMa OIJ!YTHMbIM, 4TO H onpe,IJ.e- JlHeT HH3KHe TeMnbl pa3BHTHH 4acTHoro 6H3Heca. JlpyroH BapHaHT - PYMblHHH, r,IJ.e POCT 4aCTHoro ceKTopa C,lJ.ep:lKHBallCH CJla60H 060CHOBaHHOCTbIO nporpaMMbl pecpopM H coxpaHeHHeM M.fIrKHX 61O,IJ.:lKeTHb1X orpaHH4eHHH B rocynapCTBeHHOM ceKTope. CTHMYJlHpOBaHHe C03naHH.fI pa60'lHX MeCT B 4aCTHOM ceKTope B CB.fI3H C nOHH:lKeHHeM 3apa60THOH nJlaTbl, 4TO B03MO:lKHO H3- 3a COKpalJ!eHH.fI 3aHHTOCTH, HJlH B CBH3H C BOBJle'leHHeM pa60THHKOB, OCB060:lK,lJ.aIOIJ!HXC.fI H3 rOCY,IJ.apCTBeHHoro ceKTopa ceKTope, B ,lJ.aHHOM CJlY4ae OTCYTCTByeT. JlaHHblH BapHaHT pa3BHTHH HMeeT MeCTO B TaKOH CTpaHe, KaK POCCH.fI, r,IJ.e pOCT He CBH3aHHoro C npHBaTH3alJHeH 4aCTHoro ceKTopa CKOHlJeHTpHpOBaH B OTpaCJlHX C KOPOTKHM CPOKOM 060pOTa KanHTaJla H MaKCHMallbHblM ypOBHeM peHTbl, 'ITO HBllHeTCH pe3yllbTaTOM HeCTa6HJlbHOCTH 3KOHOMH4eCKOH H nOllHTH'leCKOH Cpe,IJ.bl. npOTHBOnOJlO:lKHbIM .fIBJl.fleTC.fI npHMep "xopowero" HCXO,IJ.a B YeXHH, BeHrpHH H nOJlbWe, nOCTHrnYToro nocpenCTBOM C04eTaHH.fI 060CHOBaHHOH MaKp03KOHOMH4eCKOH nOJlHTHKH, 6JlH30CTbIO CHJlbHblX PblHKOB COCe,IJ.HHX CTpaH, YBeJlH4HBalOIJ!HMC.fI npHTOKOM np.flMblX Be3pa6omul.la u nepecmpoflKa 3KOHOMUKU fJ Bocmo'-lHou EfJpone 389 HHOCTpaHHblX HHBeCTHijHH, a TaK)I(e Ha31H4HeM npHB31eKaTe31bHbIX MeCT, TaKHX KaK npara H31H BynanewT. OnHa H3 OCHOBHblX np0631eM, CBH3aHHaH C 6ynYYJHM 3KOHOMH- 4eCKHM pa3BHTHeM, 3aKnlO4aeTCH B TOM, 4TO npOH30HneT, Korna 3aKOH4HTCH npoijecc aKijHOHHpOBaHHH B ToproB31e H c«Pepe yC31yr. 3neCb pewalOYJee 3Ha4eHHe HMeeT paCT HOBoro 4aCTHoro ceKTopa B npOH3BonCTBeHHOH c«Pepe. 3aHHTOCTb B 4aCTHOM ceKTope npOMbIW31eH- HOCTH Bce eYJe OCTaeTCSI He6031bWoH. CpenHHH pa3Mep 4aCTHOH «pHPMbl B npOMbIW31eHHOCTH n031bWH,3aHSITOCTb B KOTOPOM B KOHije 1992 rona COCTaB31S131a 6031ee 35 npoijeHToB aT 06YJero 4HC31a 3aHHTbiX B 4aCTHOM ceKTope B ije310M, 6bl31 MeHee 10 npoijeHToB OT pa3Mepa rocynap- CTBeHHoro npOMbIW31eHHOrO npennpHSITHSI.8 MHorHe H3 TaKHX «pHPM OCTalOTCSI TeCHO CBH3aHHblMH c rocynapCTBeHHblM CeKTOpOM, 31H60 KaK nOCTaBl,ijHKH, 31H60 KaK nOTpe6HTe31H. 3TO BeneT K TOMY, 4TO pe«PopMa HeOnH03Ha4HO CKa3bIBaeTCSI Ha TaKHX «PHpMax. Te H3 HHX, KOTopble B ije310M npOijBeTalOT, 06bl4HO HMelOT 6031ee CH31bHYIO opHeHTaijHIO Ha 3KcnopTHbie Cne31KH H npaKTH4eCKH He nOCTaB31HIOT TOBapbl Ha BHYTpeHHHH pbIHOK. XOTSI nocTyn K «PHHaHCOBblM HHCTHTYTaM 3neCb WHpe, 4eM y «pHPM, pa60TalOYJHX B TOprOB31e H c«Pepe yC31yr, OnHaKO Mbl 06HapY)l(H31H pSin CBHneTe31bCTB, orpaHH4eHHOCTH nOCTyna K KpenHTHblM pecypcaM. PaBHO KaK eCTb CBHneTe31bCTBa Toro, 4TO npOMblW31eHHble «pHPMbl HMelOT 6031ee YCTOH4HBblH ypOBeHb 3aHHTOCTH H 6031ee BblCOKHH ypOBeHb On31aTbl, 4eM 6031bWHHCTBO pa60T B c¢epe yC31yr. HaKOHeij, Mbl 3aMeTH31H, 4TO pOCTy 4aCTHoro ceKTopa cnoc06- CTBOBa310 YMeHbweHHe Ha310rOBOro 6peMeHH. B HeKOTopblX C31Y4aSlX 3TO 6bm onpeneneHHblH nYTb CTHMY31HpOBaHHH HHBeCTHijHH, 6031ee npOCTOH, ,)eM YK310HeHHe OT Ha310rOB. ,lloCTynHble naHHble, XOTH H orpaHH4eHbl, HO n03B031HIOT nOKa3aTb, 4TO BK31an 4aCTHoro ceKTopa B o6YJYlO Be31H4HHY Ha310rOBbIX nOCTyn31eHHH 3Ha4HTe31bHO HH)I(e, 4eM BK31an B BbmYCK npOnYKijHH. B D031bWe B 1992 r. n031H 4aCTHoro ceKTopa B 06l!!eM TOBapoo6opoTe COCTaB31H31a 46 npOijeHTOB, a B cyMMe Ha310rOBbIX nOCTyn31eHHH - 27 npOijeHToB. 3TH ijH«PPbl llalOT B03MO)l(HOCTb OijeHHTb MaCWTa6 YKnOHeHHH aT Ha310rOBbIX n31aTe)l(eH. ,llaHHaH cHTyaijHH H3MeHHTCH, KaK T031bKO npaBHTe31bCTBa nOCTapalOTCH 31HKBHnHpOBaTb np06e31bl B «PHCKa31bHOM 3aKOHOnaTe31b- 8. B cpenHeM Ha OllHOM rocynapcTBeHHOM npennpHHTHH - 3TaKOM MOHCTpe :: l?a60Ta310 650 4e310BeK, npOTHB 45 4e310BeK, pa60TaBwHx B 4aCTHOH qmpMe. 390 Be3pa6omuLJa, nepecmpou'Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U PlXHO'K mpyoa CTBe, nOCpenCTBOM KOTOPblX H3BJ1eKaIOTC.fI 60J1ee BblCOKHe nOXOnbl. Ho, no 3TOH )I(e npH"IHHe, neHCTBH.fI no BHenpeHHIO 60J1ee 3cpcpeKTHBHoro HaJ10rOBOro aaKOHOnaTeJ1bCTBa CKopee Bcero OKa)l(YT TOpM03.f1~ee BoaneMCTBHe Ha POCT "IaCTHOrO ceKTopa. l13MeHeHUR 3aHRmocmu U 6e3pa60mw.)b1 Ta6J1Hua 7-7 naeT npenCTaBJ1eHHe 06 HaMeHeHH.fIX aaH.fITOCTH H 6e3pa6OTHIJbl BMeCTe. OHa COnep)l(HT no Ka)l(nOM CTpaHe CBeneHH.fI 06 H3MeHeHHH 06~eH 3aH.fITOCTH, HaMeHeHH.fIX B paape3e OTneJ1bHblX ceKTopOB - CHH)I(eHHH aaH.fITOCTH B rocynapCTBeHHOM ceKTope H ee pOCTe B "IaCTHOM ceKTope, a TaK)I(e H3MeHeHH.fIX 6eapa60THYbi co BpeMeHH Ha4aJ1a nepexona K PblHKY (1989 r. - nJ1.f1 TIOJ1blllH, 1990 r. - nJ1.f1 OCTaJ1bHbIX CTpaH). Bce 3TO paCC"IHTaHO no OTHOllleHHIO K "IHCJ1eHHOCTH pa60"leM CHJ1bl Ha Ha"laJ10 nepexOnHoro nepHona. HaKOHelJ. Ta6J1HlJa COnep)l(HT K03CPCPHIJHeHTbl, nOKaablBalO~He OTHOllleHHe H3MeHeHH.fI 6e3pa6oTHYbl K a6COlIIOTHOH BelIHt.IHHe H3MeHeHH.fI 3aH.fITOCTH. CMbICJ1 3Toro nOKa3aTeJ1.f1 npocT. B cJ1y"lae, Korna "IHCJ1eHHOCTb HaCeJ1eHH.fI Tpynocnoc06Horo s03pacTa HeH3MeHHbl H Bce yBOJ1eHHble pa60THHKH nonanalOT B COCTas 6eapa60THblX, 3TOT K03CPCPHIJHeHT paseH enHHHye. 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BOllee )leTallbHble pe3YllbTaTbI MO)f(HO o6Hapy~ )f(HTb y Risager (1993), r)le nOKa3aHo, YTO YMeHbweHHe )l11¢¢epeH- yl1ayl1H 3apa6oTHoH nllaTbI B 6011bWOH CTeneHI1 MO)f(eT CllY)f(I1Tb o6bRCHeHI1eM YBollbHeHI1R HeKBallH¢HYHpoBaHHblx pa6oYI1x B )laHI1H.- flpUM. a6m. 410 5eapa6omuu,a, nepecmpou'Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U PblHO'K mpyoa HblMH ::3aKOHO.o.aTeJ1bCTBOM - H ypOBHeM Cpe.o.He- H .o.OJ1rOCpOI.JHOH 6e3pa60THlJbl; MeXaHH3M 3TOH CB.fI311 .0.0 CHX nop rop.fll.Jo 06cY)KJ].aeTclI (CM. Atkinson, Micklewright 1991). Ha Bbl60pKe 113 CTpaH 03CP Lazear (1990) o6HapY>KI1J1 OTpl1lJaTeJ1bHOe B03.o.eHCTBI1e Tpe6oBaHI1H K nepBl1l.JHOH perl1CTpalJl111 6e3pa6oTHbJX, a TaK>Ke pa3Mepa BblXO.o.HbJX noco611H Ha ypoBeHb 3aH.fITOCTI1. MHorue HCCJ1e.o.OBaHHlI YKa3bJBalOT Ha Ba>KHYIO pOJ1b aKTHBHOH nOJ1I1TI1KI1 Ha pblHKe Tpy.o.a (AnPT). ClO.o.a BXO.o..fIT nporpaMMbJ nepeno.o.- rOToBKI1.o.J1.f16e3pa6oTHbIX, 06ll!.eCTBeHHbJe pa6oTbl, o6YI.JeHI1e M0J10.o.e- >K11, CJ1Y>Ke6Ha.fl Opl1eHTaIJI1.f1 11 T.n. Jackman, Pissarides H Savouri (1990), a TaK>Ke Layard, Nickell 11 Jackman (1991) 11 .o.p. C nOMOll!.blO Me>KCTpaHOBbJX COnOCTaBJ1eHHH nOKa3bJBalOT CYll!.eCTBeHHYIO OTpl1lJa- TeJ1bHYIO CB.fI3b Me)KJ].y pacxo.o.aMI1 Ha AnPT 11 Cpe.o.HI1M ypoBHeM 6e3pa60Tl1lJbJ. )if XOTlI pe3KI1H pO<::T 6e3pa60TI1IJbJ nOCTaBI1J1 non Bonpoc npl1MeHI1MOCTb lllBe.o.cKoH Mo.o.eJ111 (CM. Lindbeck H .o.p., 1993), OCTaeTC.fI HeCOMHeHHblM TO, I.JTO .o.a>Ke B YCJ10BI1.f1X 6e3pa60TI1IJbl no.o.06Hble nporpaMMbJ n03B0J1111OT COXpaHI1Tb l.JeJ10Bel.JeCKHH KanHTaJ1 11 no.o..o.ep>KaTb CorJ1aCl1e OTHOCI1TeJ1bHO P0J111 Tpy.o.a B COBpeMeHHOM 06ll!eCTBe. PO.rLb uHcmumymo(J: 6aao(JaR Mode.rL'b 3.o.eCb Mbl o6pl1cyeM npocTylO Mo.o.eJ1b, OTpa>KalOll!.Y1O pOJ1b pa3J1I1I.JHbIX 4 I1HCTI1TYTOB B 06b11.JHb1X. 06ll!.enp11H.fITbJX paMKax. He06xo.o.HMO OTMeTI1Tb, I.JTO Mo.o.eJ1b YI.JI1TblBaeT TOJ1bKO cpe.o.He- H .o.OJ1rOCpOI.JHble l:j>aKTopbl 6e3pa6oTI1IJbl H onYCKaeT KpaTKOCpOI.JHble, CB.fI3aHHbie C ru6KOCTblO lJeH 11 3apa60THOH nJ1aTbl, I1H.o.eKCalJl1eH 11 ypOBHeM cOBoKynHoro cnpoca. )if XOTlI cnpoc 11 ero .o.eTepMI1HaHTbl I1rpalOT Ba>KHYIO POJ1b, peOpraHI13aIJI111 npe.o.J10>KeHI1.f1 B CTpaHax lJeHTpaJ1bHOH 11 BOCTOI.JHOH EBponbl flBJ1f1eTClI CeHl.JaC 60J1ee Ba>KHbIM BonpOCOM. TOI.JKa .o.OJ1rOCpOI.JHOrO paBHOBeCl11t 3KOHOMI1KI1 MO>KeT 6bJTb npe.o.CTaBJ1eHa KaK nepeCel.JeHl1e .o.ByX KPI1BbJX B npOCTpaHCTBe ypOBeHb 6e3pa6oTI1IJbl (u) - BaKaHTHble pa60I.JHe MeCTa (v) Ha PI1C. 8.2. Kpl1Ball UV 11306pa>KaeT COCTOllHI1f1 .o.l1HaMl1l.JeCKOrO paBHOBeCI1.f1 Me)KJ].y npl1TOKOM 11 OTTOKOM 113 Pfl.o.OB 6e3pa6oTHblX. 3Ta Kpl1BaH HaKJ10HeHa BHH3 H BorHyra K Hal.JaJ1Y Koop.o.I1HaT. 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B KOHTeKCTe MO,QellH, onHcaHHoH B TIpH1l0iKeHI1H, POCT 411ClleHHOCTH pa60THHKOB, YBellH4eHHe 3aTpaT Ha nOllY4eHHe HHcpopMalJHI1 0 BaKaHCH}1X HllH Ha nOHCK pa60THHKOB cpHpMaMH, pOCT CTaBKH npOlJeHTa H ,QOXO,QOB 6e3pa60THb1X, a TaKiKe ,QOXO,QOB OT HecpopMallbHOf'O ceKTopa H BbIXO,Q- HblX noco611H VS no 4aCOBOH CTpellKe. TIPI1 Bbl3bIBalOT C,QBH£' KPHBOH 3a,QaHHOH KPHBOH UV 3TO npHBO,QHT K POCTY 6e3pa60THIJbl H CHHiKeHHIO 4HClleHHOCTH BaKaHCHH. 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Pe3YJIbTaTOM Bcero 3Toro flBJIfleTCfI CHH)I(eHHe 4HCJIa BaKaHCHH H pOCT 6e3pa6oTHlJbl (,[{aHHafi HHTepnpeTa- lJHfI CJIe,[{yeT TaK)I(e H3 Burda 1993). Pa:J8umue MOde.llu: nOUCK pa60mbl :JaHRmbtMU, HeeouHcm8eHHocmb pa8Ho8ecuR U nepenO.llHeHUe B 6a30BoH Mo,[{eJIH npe,[{nOJIaraJIOCb, "ITO B npolJecce nOHCKOB H copeBHOBaHHfI 3a pa604He MeCTa Y4aCTBYIOT JIHWb 6e3pa6oTHble. O,[{HaKO 3TO npe,[{nOJIO)l(eHHe He COBceM peaJIHCTH4HO, nOCKOJIbKY MHorHe pa60TalOIJJHe TaK)I(e 3aHHTbi nOHCKOM pa60Tbi (CM. Pissarides H Wadsworth 1989). B BeHrpHH 3Ha4HTeJIbHafi ,[{OJIfi TeKY4ecTM pa604eH CHJIbl npMxo,[{HTCfI HMeHHO Ha nepeMeHY MeCTa pa60Tbl (CM. rJI. 2 ,[(aHHoro C60pHHKa). Mo,[{eJIb MO)l(HO npeo6pa30BaTb ,[{JIfi Toro 4T06bl Y4ecTb no'[{o6HblH nOHCK pa60Tbl 3aHflTbIMH. Dpe'[{nOJIO)l(HM, "ITO HeKOTopafl 4aCTb 3aHHTbiX Y4acTByeT B copeBHOBaHMH 3a pa604He MeCTa Hapfl,[{Y C 6e3pa6oTHblMH, H 3Ta nepeMeHHafi OTpMlJaTeJIbHO 3aBHCHT OT ypOBHR 6e3pa6oTMIJbl - "ITO OTpa)l(aeT npOIJHKJIH4HOCTb TeKY4eCTH H ee 06IJJYIO HeraTHBHYIO CBfl3b ypOBHeM M36blT04HOH 3aHflTOCTH (CM., HanpHMep, Akerlof, Rose H Yellen 1988). DOCJIe,[{CTBHfI npHHHTHfi BBe,[{eHHbIX npe,[{nOJIO)l(eHHH MorYT 6blTb npo,[{eMoHcTpMpoBaHbl Ha pMC. 8.3. Bo-nepBblx, KpHBafi UV Y)I(e He flBJIfleTCfI CTporo BorHYTOH H ,[{a)l(e y6blBalOIJJeH, nOCKOJIbKY POCT 6e3pa60THIJbl npHBO,[{HT K CHH)I(eHHIO 3aHHTOCTH H, KaK CJIe'[{CTBHe, K CHH)I(eHHIO 4HCJIa HIJJYIJJHX pa604He MeCTa. BO-BTOPbIX, eCJIM HHTeH- CHBHOCTb nOHCKa pa604MX MeCT 3aHHTblMH CYIJJeCTBeHHO 3aBHCMT OT ypOBHfI 6e3pa6oTHIJbl, KpMBafi VS Ha HeKOTopOM Y4aCTKe MO)l(eT CTaTb y6blBalOIJJeH. 3TO 06bflCHfleTCfI TeM, "ITO C POCTOM 6e3pa6oTHIJbl Bce MeHbwee 4HCJIO 3aHHTbiX HIJJeT pa60TY, ,[{eJIafi BaKaHCHH Bce MeHee HHcmumYmbl pblH1W mpyiJa 413 "npOH3BO.llH~eJIbHbIMH" H, KaK CJIe.llCTBHe, BCe MeHee npHBJIeKaTeJIbHbl- MH. B .IlaHHblX YCJIOBHHX B03MO:lKHO CYlJ!eCTBOBaHHe Hee.llHHCTBeHHOrO COCTOHHHH paBHOBeCHH. Ha pHC. 8.3 H306pa:lKeHbl .IlBe B03MO:lKHble KpHBbie VS BMeCTe C KPHBOH UV, KOTopaH CTaHOBHTCH B03paCTalOIYeH npH BblCOKOM ypoBHe 6e3pa6oTHYbl. )lJIfi nepBoH KPHBOH (VS 1) .IlOJIfi 3aHflTblx, Yt.JacTBYIOIJ!HX B nOHCKe pa6oTbl, nOCTOHHHa, .IlJIfi BTOPOH KPHBOH (VS 2) 3Ta .IlOJIfi H3MeHfleTCfI H HMeeTCfI Y:lKe .IlBa COCTOflHHfI paBHoBecHfi. PHCYHOK 8-3. COCTOflHHfI paBHoBecHfi C YlieToM nOHCKa pa60Tbi 3aHflTblMH v B TOH CTeneHH, B KaKoH npoyecc TPY.Il0YCTpoHcTBa CBfl3aH C C03.1laHHeM HOBblX CPHPM H HOBblX pa6ot.JHx MeCT, PHCYHOK 8.3 MO:lKeT 6blTb npHMeHeH K aHaJIH3Y "woKoBoro" nO.llXO.lla K pecpopMe 6blBWHX nJIaHOBblX 3KOHOMHK. C O.llHOH CTOPOHbl, H3MeHfleTCfI BblBO.ll 0 TOM, t.JTO B03paCTalOIJ!afl 6e3pa6oTHya MO:lKeT YCKOPHTb CTPYKTypHYIO nepe- CTPOHKY, BblTaJIKHBafi 3aHflTbiX C "YCTapeBWHX" pa60t.JHX MeCT B npoyecc COpeBHOBaHHfI ha HOBbie pa60t.JHe MeCTa/. POJIb 6e3pa6oTHYbi .IlJIH C03.1laHHfI HOBblX pa60t.JHX MeCT B .IlaHHOM CJIYl.lae CHH:lKaeTCH, nOCKOJIbKY JIHWb He6oJIbWOe I.IHCJIO 3aHflTbiX HIJ!YT pa60TY B YCJIOBHflX BblCOKOH 6e3pa6oTHUbl, H 3cpcpeKTHBHOCTb TPY.Il0YCTpoHCTBa na.llaeT. C .IlPyroH CTOPOHbl, pOCT 6e3pa6oTHUbi npHBO.llHT K CHH:lKeHHIO TeKYt.JeCTH pa60t.JeH CHJIbl, KOTopoe 3aMe.llJIfieT "cnOHTaHHYIO TpaHC- cpopMaUHIO" rOCY.IlapCTBemlblX npe.llnpHHTHH, t.Jepe3 .Il06POBOJIbHbie YBOJIbHeHHH, H HX 3aKpblTHe CTaHOBHTCfI Bce 60JIee .IlOporOCTOflIYHM 5 .IlJIfi 061J!eCTBa. 5. B 60JIbWHHCTBe CTpaH npHpOCT 3aHflTOCTH OCYlJ!eCTBJIHeTCfI 414 Be::Jpa6omul.Ia, nepecmpou.Ka 3'KOHOMU'KU U PblHO'K mpyiJa OnaCHOCTH JlJISI nepeXOJlHoit 3KOHOMHKH: HeeJlHHCTBeHHOe paBHOBeCHe H rHCTepe3HC. Ponb HHCTHTyrOB B cPOpMHpOBaHHH pblHKa TpYJla B BOCTOYHOH EBpone 06l,UenpH3HaHHa. Ii B nepeXOJlHblH nepHOJl YCTaHOBneHHe COUHanbHblX MHHHMYMOB oC06eHHo Ba)l(HO, a O)l(HJlaHHfI OTHOCHTenbHO COUHanbHblX rapaHTHH JlOn)l(Hbl 6blTb Ha}le)l(HbIMH H peanHCTHYHbIMH. 11 nOCKonbKY HepaBeHCTBO MO)l(eT CTaTb cnHWKOM 60nbWHM, a ynyYweHHe CHTyaUHH - cnHWKOM OTJlaneHHblM, CY1,!!eCTByeT onaCHOCTb, YTO nOCTpaJlaBWHe 6YJlyr ronOCOBaTb npOTHB pecPoPM (Wyplosz 1993). 3JleCb B03HHKaeT JlHneMMa: asoziale Marknvirtsha!t7 nOJlXOJlHT cKopee Jlnfl cTa6HnbHoH pa3BHTOH 3KOHOMHKH, a He Jlnfl nepeXOJlHOH, nepe)l(HBalOl!!eH nepHOJl CTPYKTYPHOH nepeCTpoHKH. B TO BpeMfI,KaK TfI)I(enafl npOMblwneH- HOCTb CTpaH UBE CBepTblBaeTCfI H nepeCTpaHBaeTCfI, ceKTOp ycnyr Bce 60nee paCWHpfleTCfI (Berg H Sachs 1992). nonHTHKa, HanpaBneHHafl Ha 3al,UHTy yenOBeyeClKaTbC.H pacnpOCTpaHeHHeM MallopeallHC- TH4HbiX "M.HrK06IOA>KeTHbIX" neperOBopOB HllH YCTapeBWHX KOMneHca- !JHOHHbIX CTPYKTYp. B 3anaAHOH llHTepaType 06~enpH3~aHHOH onaCHOCTblO All.H pblHKa TpYAa C4HTaeTC.H rHCTepe3HC. RBlleHHe, XopOWO H3BeCTHoe qm3HKaM, rHCTepe3HC npeACTaBll.HeT C060H Hecnoc06HOCTb CHCTeMbl, nOABeprnYBweHCH B03AeHCTBHIO H3BHe, BepHYTbC.H B CBoe HCXOAHoe COCTO.HHHe nOClle npeKpaLJ!eHHfI TaKoro B03AeHCTBHfI (XOpOWHH 0630p MO>KHO HaHTH BO Franz, 1990). TpYAOBOH PblHOK nOCTOHHHO nOABep- >KeH B03AeHcTBHIO w01(o6. HanpHMep, B 1970-e IT. !JeHa HecpTH B03poclla CHa4alla B 4eTbIpe pa3a 3a 1973-74 IT., a 3aTeM eLJ!e B .L\Ba pa3a B 1979-80 rr. nOJ:\ B03J:\eHcTBHeM 3THX WOKOB B03pOClla 6e3pa60- TH!,!a. TeM BpeMeHeM POCT !JeH npeKpaTHllCH, HOMHHallbHaH !,!eHa Ha HecpTb CHH3HllaCb, a HHCPllH!,!H.H nOCTeneHHO B03BpaTHlla peallbHYIO !,!eHY Ha HecpTb K ypOBHIO Ha4alla 70-x IT. OJ:\HaKO 6e3pa60TH!Ja B CTpaHax EC (B OTllH4He OT ClilA H RnoHHH) np0J:\Oll>Kalla n01l3TH B ropy, H HeT HHKaKHX npH3HaKOB B03BpaLJ!eHHH ee K npe>KHeMY ypOBHIO. 3KOHOMH4eCKHe npH4HHbi mCTepe3Hca, HllH J:\01lrocp04HOH Hem6KOCTH pblHKa TpYJ:\a, OCTalOTCfI HeOJ:\H03Ha4HbIMH. B nepeXOJ:\HblX 3KOHOMHKaXCTpaH UBE onaCHOCTb rHCTepe3Hca 3HaKOMa MHorHM nOllHTHKaM/ CTOHT ynoMHHYTb HeKOTopble UNcmumY/.lUONW1bNble cpaKTopbl, BeJ:\YLJ!He K rHCTepe3HCYHllH mCTepe3HconoJ:\06HblM HBlleHH- .HM. CO!,!HallbHoe CTpaXOBaHHe, oc06eHHO CTpaXOBaHHe no 6e3pa60TH- !,!e MO>KeT 4epe3 HallorOBYIO CHCTeMY CHH>KaTb cnpoc CPHPM Ha pa604YIO CHllY B ocpH!JHallbHOH 3KOHOMHKe. 5e3pa60TH!Ja MO>KeT BeCTH K nOTepe 4ellOBe4eCKoro KanHTalla H K "nOMe4HBaHHIO" Tex, KTO J:\Ollroe BpeM.H OCTaeTCH 6e3pa60THb1M. npOcpCOlO3bl MO~ BeCTH neperOBopbl C !JellblO nOMep>KHBaTb 611arOCOCTOflHHe HX HaCTOHLJ!HX 411eHOB, HrHopHpYfI HHTepeCbl aYTCaHJ:\epOB, OKa3aBWHXCH 6e3pa60T- HbIMH. €llHKcHpoBaHHble H3J:\ep>KKH, CBH3aHHbie co CMeHOH J:\Oll>KHOCTH, MeCTa pa60Tbi HllH OTpaCllH, TaK>Ke MorYT npHBOJ:\HTb K rHCTepe3HCY. 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B CTpaHaX I,JeHTpaJIbHOH 11 BOCT04HOH EBponbl, r,lle WOKI1 CB$l3aHbi cKopee CO CTPYKTYPHblMI1 113MeHeHI1.RMI1 (nepeCTpOHKoH), 4eM co BpeMeHHblM na,lleHl1eM cOBoKynHoro cnpoca, npOTI1BO,lleHCTBl1e ,llBI1>KeHl1lO K rnCTepe311CY npe,llCTaBJI$leTC$l oco6eHHo Ba>KHbIM. CpaBHeHue UHCTUTYTOB pbIHKa TpY.lla B CTpaHaX UeHTpaJlbHOii U BOCTOqHOii EBpOnbI B npe,llbl,llyl,l!I1X ,llByX pa3,lleJIaX I1CCJIe,llOBaJIaCb pOJIb I1HCTI1T)'TOB pblHKa Tpy,lla ,llJI$l CPYHKijl1oHl1pOBaHl1$l 3Toro pblHKa B cpe,llHe- 11 ,lloJIrOCp04HOM acneKTax. Ta6JI. 8.1, B .KOTOpOH npe,llCTaBJIeHbl pe3YJIbTaTbi 113 Layard, Nickell 11 Jackman (1991), nO,llTBep>K,llaeT 420 l?eapa6omUl.ja, nepecmpouKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa CaeJIaHHble BbIBOabI (HeKOTOpble pe3YJIbTaTbI OjJeHl1BaHHfI perpeCCHH C HeCYl!!eCTBeHHbIMH HHCTHTY!,!HOHaJIbHbIMH nepeMeHHblMH OnYJ..l!eHbl). 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MaTepHan ,Qanee). nO,QBO,QfI HTorn, MO:lKHO OTMeTHTb, "ITO nocne,QHHe rO,Qbl xapaKTepH30BanHCb WHPOKO pacnpOCTpaHeHHblM ocna6neHHeM KpHTepHeB 3a4HcneHHfI BO Bcex CTpaHax, npHBO,QHBweM K CHH:lKeHHIO 3P 1'1 BeHrpHfI flBnfllOTCfI CTpaHaMH C nOTeHYHanbHO BblCOKHM YPoBHeM KopnopaTHBH3Ma. neperOBOPbl B BonrapHH TaK:lKe CTaHOBflTCfI 60nee KopnopaTHBHblMH 1'1 yeHTpanH30BaHHblMH, ecnH 424 Ee3pa6omuv,a, nepeCmpOilKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa CY)lI1Tb no neperOBopaM 0 3apa6oTHOH nlIaTe 11 I1H)leKCaUI1I1 B 1993 r. KOHueHTpaUI1.f1 npotPcolO30B B DOlIbwe BCTpe4aeT npOTI1BO)leHCTBl1e, nocKolIbKY pa60411e npe)lnpmlTI1H Y)f(e I1MelOT 3Ha411TelIbHYlO BlIaCTb Ha)l I1X ynpaBlIeHl1eM, - 3TO OCTaBlI1leT DOlIbWY B 411ClIe cTpaH C HI13KI1M ypoBHeM KopnOpaTI1BI13Ma B TepMI1HaX 6a30BoH MO)lelIl1 (CM. MaTep"alI Bblwe). B PYMblHl111 3Ha411MbiX npl13HaKOB KopnOpaTI1BI13Ma COBceM HeMHoro. 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AKmu(fHble npozpaMMbl Ha pblHKe mpyoa ,llo CI1X nop He CTHxalOT cnopbl 0 TOM, KaKoro pO)la aKTI1BHble nporpaMMbl Ha pblHKe Tpy)la (ADPT) Hal1601Iee np"MeHIMbl B nep"0)l p~)lHKalIbHbIX CTpYKTypHbIX 113MeHeHI1H. lliBe)lCKa.fl MO)lelIb,)lO CI1X nop C411TaBWaflC.fI Ha)le)f(HbIM Cpe)lCTBOM npOTI1B)lOlIrOCp04HOH 6e3pa60TI1- Ubi (Jackman, Pissarides 11 Savouri 1990), ceH4ac nepeCMaTpl1BaeTCfI 113-3a Cl1lIbHeHWero co BpeMeH BelIl1KOH ,llenpeCCI1H cOKpal,l!eHI1f1 cOBoKynHoro cnpoca. OHa TaK)f(e nO)lBepranaCb COMHeHl11O no np"41- HaM tPl1CKanbHoro xapaKTepa (Calmfors 1993) - BeCbMa Ba)f(HbIM )In.fl cTpaH IJBE. TeM He MeHee ADPT flBn.fleTCfI Hal160lIee np"eMlIeMblM BI1)lOM nOnl1TI1KI1 B nep"0)l pa)lI1KalIbHblX CTPYKTYPHblX 113MeHeHI1H, KOr)la 4enOBe4eCKI1H KanHTan TepfleTCfI/"MopanbHO 113HaWI1BaeTCfI"/ 11 He06xo)lI1Ma BblCOKafi )lOn)f(HOCTHa.fl, OTpaCneBa.fl 11 perl10HanbHafi M0611nbHOCTb pa604eH Cl1nbl. AnPT MO)f(HO ynopfl)104l1Tb OT HaH60lIee naCCI1BHblX BI1)lOB (nporpaMMbl 061,1!eCTBeHHbiX pa60T, Bbl)leneHl1e cpe)lCTB Ha C03)laHl1e pa60411X MeCT, Cy6CH)l1111 K 3apa6oTHOH nnaTe) )l0 aKTI1BHblX (nepe- nO)lrOTOBKa B ueHTpax nepenO)lrOTOBKI1, BpY4eHI1e pa60411X BaY4epOB BbmYCKHI1KaM WKOnbl11 nOTepflBWI1M pa60TY. cy6CI1)l1111 )lnfl nepee3)la B )lpyroH perl10H 11 T.n.). B paMKax 6a30BOH MO)lenl1 AnPT MOryT paCCMaTpl1BaTbCJI KaK Mepbl, CHI1)f(alOl,I!l1e k (o6'beM cpe)lCTB, Heo6xo- )lI1MbIX Ha nOMep)f(aHl1e BaKaHTHblX pa60411X MeCT), YMeHbwalOl,I!l1e T nYTeM cy6CI1)ll1pOBaHI1J1 C03)laHI1J1 pa60411X MeCT I1nl1 HenOCpe)lCTBeH- HO C03)lalOl,I!l1e pa60411e MeCTa B 061,1!eCTBeHHOM ceKTope (Mepbl, cnoco6CTBYlOI,I!I1e nepe)lBI1)f(eHI1IO KPI1BOH VS Bsepx), I1nl1 Mepbl, J1Hcmumymbl pblHKa mpyoa 425 KOTopble B03AeikTBYIOT HenOCpeACTBeHHO Ha npollecc TPYAOYCTPOH- CTBa. 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B BOCTo4HOH repMaHHH paHHee OTnpaBJleHHe Ha neHCHIO 6blJlO KJ1104eBOH MepOH AOPT, H 60nee 800000 pa6oTHHKOB CTapUJero nOKoneHHfI 6blJlO BblBeAeHO H3 PflAOB pa604eH CHJlbl. 3TO oCBo6oAHno npocTpaHcTBo AnflBbmYCKHH- KOB UJKon H APyrOH MOnOAe)KH, CTofllijeH B Ha4ane B03pacTHoH JleCTHHYbl, n03BOJlHnO aKKYMynHpoBaTb 4eJlOBe4eCKHH KanHTaJl B npoyecce pa6oTbl. OpocToe cpaBHeHHe nOJlY4aeMbix AOXOAOB H pacxoAoB OT paHHero OTnpaBJleHHH Ha neHCHIO nOKa3blBaeT, 4TO OHO AeHCTBHTeJlbHO YBenH4HBaeT npHBeAeHHYIO CTOHMOCTb BBO, oco6eHHo ecnH lIenOBe4eCKHH KanHTaJl pa6oTHHKOB CTapUJero nOKoneHHfI npeACTaBnfleT C060H pa3Hoo6pa3Hbie "oCTaTKH". OOY4HTeneH npoCToH npHMep. PaccMoTpHM nflTHAeCflTHnflTH- neTHerO pa60THHKa C O)KHAaeMbIM CPOKOM )KH3HH ceMbAeCflT nflTb JleT, npeAenbHafl npoH3BoAHTenbHocTb KOToporo paBHa 200,000 eKTb/ HHcppaCTpYKTYPb/ B 3THX CTpaHax Tpe6ylOT 3Hat.IHTeJIbHbIX pa60T, H HenOCTaTOK opraHH3aYHOHHbiX TaJIaHTOB H pa60t.IeH CHJIbl 3neCb npenCTaBJIfleTCfI He MeHee Ba)l(HbIM, t.IeM HenOCTa- TOK 61On)l(eTHbiX cpenCTB. non06Hbie nporpaMMbl Bpfln JIH 6ynyT OKa3blBaTb cepbe3Hoe B03neHCTBHe, nOKa He nOCTHrHyT TaKoro )l(e pa3Maxa KaK B YewCKOH Pecny6JIHKe. ,[(JIfi Toro t.IT06bl npOBOnl1Tb CTPYKTYPHble npe06pa30BaHHfI HJII1 no KpaHHeH Mepe He MewaTb HM, CJIeilyeT OTnaTb npe):{nOt.ITeHl1e 06l,UeCTBeHHbiM pa60TaM H cy6cI1nHflM 3aHflTOCTI1 Ha HOBb/X npennpHflTHflX, a He nOMOl,U11 rocy):{apCTBeHHblM npennpl1f1TI1f1M. PaHHee OTnpaBJIeHHe Ha neHC1110 nOJI)I(HO 6blTb H3Yt.IeHO 60JIee BHHMaTeJIbHO, oc06eHHO B CTpaHax C OTHOCHTeJIbHO MOJIOnOH ):{eMorpa- cpHt.IeCKOH CTPYKTYPOH. B fepMaHI1H ::lTO 6blJIa He06xo):{I1MOCTb, nOCKOJIbKY HHKaKHe MaKp03KOHOMHt.IeCKHe Mepbl, nOn06Hbie neBaJIbBa- 430 5e3pa6omul.Ja, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa !J1111 Ha!J110HaJIbHOfi BaJIlOTbl, He n03BOJI.RJII1 CHI1311Tb peaJIbHYJO 3apa6oTHYIO nJIaTY HI13KOnp0I13BO,l:lI1TeJIbHbIX pa60THI1KOB. ,[laiKe npl1H.RB MI1HI1MaJIbHble npe,l:lnOJIOiKeHI1.R 0 np0I13BO,l:lI1TeJIbHOCTI1 TpY,l:la pa60THI1KOB MOJIO,l:lOro nOKOJIeHI1.R B 6Y,l:lYllleM, 60JIee aKTI1BHOe paHHee OTnpaBJIeHl1e Ha neHC1110 B COqeTaHl111 C cocpe,QOTOqeHl1eM BHI1MaHI1.R Ha MOJIO,l:lbIX 11 HeKBaJIl1lPl1!Jl1pOBaHHblX pa60THI1KaX KaK B Yexl1l1 n03BOJII1T nOMOqb pa3JII1qHbiM nOKOJIeHI1.RM "He on03,QaTb Ha noe3,Q", KaK 3TO CJIyql1JIOCb B BeJII1K06pI1TaHI1I1, I1TaJII1I1 11 R, B KOTOpofi QHCJIeHHOCTb 6e3pa6oTHbiX U H BaKaHTHblX MeCT 'VI HrpalOT pOJIb He3aBI1CHMbJX nepeMeHHblX, QI1CJIO "YCTpoeHHbIX Ha pa60TY" - 3aBHCHMofi. B HaQaJIe npo!,!ecca QHCJIO pa60THHKOB, yqaCTBYlOlYl1X B nOHCKe pa60Tbl, CQHTaeTC.R paBHblM QHCJIY 6e3pa6oTHblX, a QHCJIO IPHPM, iKeJIalOlYl1X HaH.RTb pa60THI1Ka - QHCJIY BaKaHCHH, I1JIH QHCJIY IPI1PM 6e3 pa60THHKOB. 3TO npe,QnOJIOiKeHHe 3aTeM 6Y,l:leT OCJIa6JIeHO ,l:lJI.R Toro QTo6bl YQeCTb nOHCK pa60TbJ 3aHHTbIMI1. YHCJIO 6e3pa6oT- HblX yaeJIHQI1BaeTC.R H3-3a COKpalYeHHSJ pa60QHX MeCT, KOTopoe MOiKeT 6blTb npe,l:lCTaBJIeHO 3K30reHHOH ,l:lOJIeH S OT o6lYero QI1CJIa 3aH.RTbIX pa6oQl1x MeCT e. YHCJIeHHOCTb pa60QeH CHJIbJ npe,l:lnoJIaraeTcSJ I1Hcmumymbl pblH1W mpydQ 431 nOCTO~HHOH H npHBe,L:leHHOH K e,L:lHHHQe. KaK CJ1e,L:lCTBHe, ypOBeHb 6e3pa6oTHQbl H3MeH~eTC~ COrJ1aCHO cJ1e,L:lYlOllleMY ypaBHeHHIO: (8.2) U= s(1-u) - X(U,v). nepBblM YCJ10BHeM paBHOBeCH~ Ha pblHKe Tpy,L:la ~BJ1~eTC~ paBeHCTBO 1.fHCJ1a CTaHOB~IllHXC~ 6e3pa60THblMH H 1.fHCJ1a HaXO,L:l~IllHX pa60TY: (8.3) s(1-u) = X(U,v). Ha60p KOM6HHaQHH (U,V), y,L:loBJ1eTBop~IOIllHx ypaBHeHHIO 8.3, npe,L:l- CTaBJ1eH CHH:lKalOllleHc~ KPHBOH UV Ha pHC. 8.2. BaKaHcHH npe,L:lJ1araIOTC~ qJHpMaMH, HY:lK,L:laIOIllHMHc~ B pa601.feH CHJ1e. O,L:lHaKo 1.fHCJ10 tPHPM ~BJ1~eTC~ 3H,L:loreHHoH nepeMeHHoH H onpe,L:leJ1~eTc~ npH6blJ1bHOCTblO BXO:lK,L:leHH~ Ha PblHOK, KOTopa~ B CBOIO o'-lepe,L:lb 3aBHCHT OT BeJ1H1.fHHbl peaJ1bHOH 3apa60THoH nJ1aTbl. Ha1.fHeM C npe,L:ln0J10:lKeHH~, 1.fTO peaJ1bHa~ 3apa6oTHa~ nJ1aTa w YCTaHaBJ1HBa- eTC~ B pe3YJ1bTaTe neperoBopoB Me:lK,L:ly pa60THHKaMH H HaHHMaTeJ1~­ MH. 5e3pa60THbie HMelOT ,L:loCTyn K HeJ1eraJ1bHoMY ,L:lOXO,L:ly T, a TaK:lKe K BblnJ1aTaM no 6e3pa6OTHQe b. Bepo~THoCTb HaHTH pa60TY B ,L:laHHbIH MOMeHT f B pe3YJ1bTaTe nOHCKa paBHa x(u,v)/U = x(1, 0), r,L:le 0 == V/U. nYCTb E H U -CTOHMOCTHa~ OQeHKa COOTBeTCTBeHHO COCTO~HHH 3aH~TOCTH HJ1H 6e3pa60THQbl B cHTyaQHH paBHOBeCH.fI. ECJ1H HopMa npOQeHTa paBHa r, TO B cHTyaQHH paBHOBeCH~ ,L:lOJ1:lKHO BblnOJ1H~TbC~: (8.4) rU = b + T + j(O)(E - If). npennOJ1araeTC~, 1.fTO B cJ1Y1.fae yBOJ1bHeHH~ pa60THHK nOJ1Y1.faeT BbIXO,L:lHOe noc06He T, BeJ1H1.fHHa KOToporo He 3aBHCHT OT 3apa6oTHOH nJ1aTbl H KOTopoe MO:lKeT 6blTb BblnJ1a1.feHO HJ1H He BblnJ1a1.feHO tPHPMOH. KaK CJ1e,L:lCTBHe: (8.5) rE = w - s(E - U - T). yb 8.4 H 8.5 CJ1e,L:lyeT: (8.6) E - U = (w - b - l + sT)/(r + s + fl. 3aMeTHM, 1.fTO cYlllecTBoBaHHe YBOJ1bHHTeJ1bHbIX noc06HH nOBblwaeT paBHoBecHYIO CTOHMOCTHYIO oQeHKY COCTO~HH~ 3aH~TOCTH. TaKa~ :lKe J10rHKa MO:lKeT HCn0J1b30BaTbC~ nJ1~ aHaJ1H3a 432 Ee3paOOmU"4a, nepecmpoi1Ka 3KOHOMUKU U P'blHOK mpyoa cHTyaJJHH C n03HJJHH tPHPMbl: ,ll06aBJIeHHafi CTOHMOCTb, nOJI)"-IaeMafi aT 3aHflToro pa60TalOIYerO, paBHa i. paCXO,llbl Ha cO,Qep:lKaHHe He3aHflTOrO pa604ero MeCTa paBHbl V. Dpe,QnOJIO:lKHM, 4TO tPHpMa HeceT H3,llep:lKKH k ,QJIfI Taro 4T06bl ,Qep:lKaTb BaKaHCHIO OTKPblTOH - 3TO MOryT 6blTb H3,Qep:lKKH Ha peKJIaMY, HHTepBblOHpOBaHHe H T.n. ,[(JIfi pa60TalOIYeH tPHPMbl YBOJIbHeHHe 3aHflToro 06XO,llHTCfI B F, BeJIH4HHa KOToporo MO:lKeT 6blTb paBHa HJIH He paBHa BeJIH4HHe noco6HfI no YBOJIbHeHHIO T; B cJI)"-Iae, Kor,lla F > T, pa3HHJJa F - T, He,llOnOJI)"-IaeMafi pa60THH- KOM, COOTBeTCTByeT HaKJIa,QHbIM H3,Qep:lKKaM JIHKBH,QaJJHH pa604ero MeCTa. ECJIH ,QOJIIO HaHHMaeMblX 0603Ha4HTb KaK h = x/v = x(&"1,1) = fO, TO Mbl nOJIY4HM: (8.7) ri=y-w-sU-V-F) (8.8) rV = -k + h(O)U - V'}. B HTore Mbl MO:lKeM 3afjHCaTb (8.9) i-V'" (y - w - sF + k)/(r + s + h). npe,QnOJIO:lKHM Tenepb, 4TO pa60THHKH H tPHPMbl YCTaHaBJIHBa- lOT BeJIH4HHY 3apa60THOH nJIaTbl B neperOBopax no H3WY, He npHHH- Mafl BO BHHMaHHe B03,lleHCTBHe, OKa3bIBaeMoe HMH Ha ,llpyrne nepero- BOPbl 0 3apa6oTHOH nJIaTe. ECJIH Bec, npHnHCblBaeMblH ,QOXO,llaM pa60THHKOB. 0603Ha4HTb KaK {1. TO JJeJIeBafl tPYHKJJHfI /tPyHKJJHfI BblHrpblwa/ HMeeT BH,ll: (8-10) ,[(JIfI Taro 4T06bl neperoBopbl HMeJIH n03HTHBHblH HCXO,ll. He06xo,llHMO BbInOJIHeHHfI YCJIOBHfI y + k + seT - F) > b + 1. 1l0rapHtPMH4ecKafl ,llHtPtPepeHJJHaJJHfI 3Toro Bblpa:lKeHHfI ()"-IHTblBaflf H h KaK napaMeTpH- 4eCKHe BeJIH4HHbl) n03BOJIfleT nOJIY4HTb tP0PMYJlY ,QJIfl 3apa6oTHoH nJiaTbl (8.11) w = (1 - (1)(b + 1- sn + {1(y - sF + k)Y 15.3aMeTHM. 4TO BeJlH4HHa 3apa6oTHoH nJiaTbl He 3aBHCHT aT CTeneHH Hanpfl:lKeHHOCTH Ha pblHKe TPY,Qa, B OTJlH4He OT Pissarides 1990. npe,QnOJIaraeTcfl. 4T0 pa60THHKH H tPHPMbl "6J1H30PYKH" H He npHHHMalOT BO BHHMaHHe BJlHflHHe CBOHX ,QeMCTBHM Ha cHTyaJJHIO Ha \1aKpoypOBHe. ff1..tCmumymbl pblH1W mpyoa 433 ECJUI BXO.Q q>HPM Ha PblHOK cBo6o.QeH, TO V .. O. nO.QCTaHOBKa ypaBHe- HHH 8.11 8.8 H 8.9 n03B0J1HeT nOJ1yt.jHTb BOCXO,QflJ,UHH B Bblpa)l(eHHH J1Yt.j VS B npocTpaHCTBe (u, v) Ha pHC. 8.2, onHcblBaeMblH QlOPMYJ10H (8.12) k = {(l-tJ)[y -(b+l) - s(F-7)] - tJ~}h«(J)/(r+s). Bblpa)l(eHHe 8.12 MO)l(HO HHTepnpeTHpOB;:lTb KaK paBeHCTBo B COCTOH:" HHH paBHoBecHfl 3aTpaT Ha cO.Qep)l(aHHe He3aHHToH BaKaHCHH H cooTBeTcTBYlOl!!HM o6pa30M .QHCKOHTHpoBaHHblx O)l(H.QaeMbIX .QOXO.QOB. CpaBHHTeJ1bHble cTaTHt.jecKHe 3KcnepHMeHTbi MOryr nOKa3aTb B03.QeH- I6 CTBHe H3MeHeHHH napaMeTpoB MO,QeJ1H. B ,QaHHoH MO.QeJ1H C.QeJ1aTb 3TO oco6eHHo npoCTo. nepenHweM ypaBHeHHe 8.12 B cJ1e,QYIOJ,UeM BH,Qe: (8.13) v = uh'l(k(r+s)/{(l-t1)[y-(b+l}-s(F-7)]-tJk}). nOCKOJ1bKY h'l. < 0, TO cpa3y )l(e MO)l(HO nOKa3aTb, t.jTO pOCT BJ1HflHHH pa6OTHHKOB Ha neperOBOpHblH npoyecc (t1), 3aTpaT Ha nOAQep)l(aHHe He3aHflTOH BaKaHCHH (k), HOPMbl npoyeHTa (r), BbInJ1aT,6e3pa6oTHblM (b), HeJ1eraJ1bHbIX .QOXO.QOB (l) H t.jaCTH YBOJ1bHHTeJ1bHOrO noco6Hfl, He.QonOJ1yqaeMoro pa6oTHHKOM npH YSOJ1bHeHHH (F - 7) C.QBHraeT KPHBYIO VS BHH3, npHBO.Qfl K pOCTy 6e3pa6oTHYbi H YMeHbweHHIO t.jHCJ1a BaKaHCHH. flOUCK pa60mbl 3aHRmblMU, HeeouHcm(JeHHoe cocmORHue pa(JHo(JecuR U nepenOJ1HeHUe npe.Qn0J10)l(HM, t.jTO .QJ1fl Ka)l(JlOro ypOBHfl 3aHHTOCTH e yqaCTHe B npoyecce nOHCKa pa60Tbi Bblpa)l(ae-rCH KaK 1!'(u), r,Qe 1rE(O,l), 1!'(0)=1[, 11"(0)=0,11":::; 0,11"<0. KaK 3aHHTble, TaK H 6e3pa6OTHble KOHKYPHPYIOT 3a O.QHO H TO )l(e MHO)l(eCTBO BaKaHCHH Ha paBHblX OCHOBaHHflX. 3,QeCb Mbl C.QeJ1aeM ynpolllalOlllee npe.Qn0J10)l(eHHe 0 TOM, t.jTO O)l(H.QaeMafl BeJ1Ht.jHHa nOTepb B CJ1Yt.jae CpblBa neperOBOpOB 0 TPY.Q0YCTpOHCTBe 16. 3Ta MO,QeJ1b OTJ1Ht.jaeTCH OT cTaH.QapTHoA, B KOTOPOH pa6oTHH- KH He Yt.jHTblBalOT, t.jTO HX neperOBopbl B03,QeHCTBYIOT Ha BeJ1Ht.jHHY 3apa6oTHOH nJ1aTbl B 6Y,QYllleM HJ1H Ha nepexo,n .QPyrux pa60THHKOB B COCToflHHe 6e3pa6oTHYbi HJ1H 3aHflTOCTH. B pa60Tax Pissarides 1990 H Burda 1992 Kat.jeCTBeHHO CXO)l(He pe3YJ1bTaTbl nOJ1Yt.jaIOTcfl Ha OCHOBe 6oJ1ee CJ10)l(HOH BepCHJ.oI ypaBHeHHfI 8.12. 434 Be3pa6omu/4a, nepecmpofl1<:a ::3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyaa 17 O!(I,maKOBa KaK aaHflTbIX, TaK H 6eapa6oTHbIX. B nO!(06HbIX YCJIOBHflX cHTyayHfl paBHOBeCHH xapaKTepHayeTcfl CJIe!(YIOl!!HM Bblpa)l(eHHeM: (8.14) s(l-u)={ul[u+1f(l-u)]}x[u+1f(l-u), v], HJIH 60JIee KpaTKO: s(l/u - 1) = x{l, v/[u+1f(l-u)]}. KpHBaH, onHCblBaeMaH 3THM Bblpa)l(eHHeM, MO)l(eT He 6blTb CTporo BOrnYToi1 H na)l(e He 6blTb BCIOny y6blBaIOl!!ei1. KpHBaH VS B naHHOM CJIyyae TaKafl )l(e, KaK H !(JIH ypaBHeHHH 8.12, pa3HHya JIHWb B TOM, "ITO OHa 60JIbWe He HBJIHeTCfl npHMoi1 JIHHHei1, HCXOnHl!!ei1 H3 HayaJIa KOOp!(HHaT, a xapaKTepH3yeTcH CJIe!(YIOl!!HM ypaBHel-fHeM: (8.15) v = [tr + u(l-tr)]K, rne K - h-'(k(r+s)/{(l-P)[y - (b+l) - s(F-T)]-Pk}).'S J1erKo nOKa3aTb, "ITO dvldu = [l-tr+tr'(l-u)]K, cPvlcfu = [tr"(l-u)]K < O. ECJIH HHTeHCHBHOCTb nOHCKa pa60Tbi 3aHflTblMH CYl!!eCTBeHHO 3aBHCHT OT ypOBHH 6eapa6oTHijbl: tr' <-(l-tr)/(l-u), TO KpHBaH VS MO)l(eT CTaTb BOCXO!(Hl!!ei1 Ha HeKOTopOM yYaCTKe. C npH6JIH)I(eHl1eM u K HyJIIO cnpoc Ha BaKaHCHH OCTaeTCfl nOJIO)l(HTeJIbHbIM, tr' CTpeMHTC.fI K HyJIIO H, KaK CJIe!(CTBHe, Ha HayaJIbHOM yyaCTKe KpHBa.fl VS .fIBJI.fIeTC.fI B03paCTaIO- l!!ei1. HeeaUHcm6eHHoe cocmOJiHue pa6Ho6ecufi u lUcmepe3Uc 17. 3TO HeCKOJIbKOHepeaJIHCTHYHOe npennOJIO)l(eHHe cYl!!eCTBeHHo ynp0l!!aeT aHaJIH3. OHO 03HayaeT. "ITO pa60THHKH, KOTopble Hl!!YT pa60yee MeCTO 6ynYYH 3aH.fITblMH, Y)l(e oCBo6onHJIH aaHHMaeMoe MeCTO, Korna COOTBeTCTBYIOl!!afl BaKaHCHfl Hai1neHa. 18. B cJIyyae, Korna BeJIHYHHa tr nOCTO.flHHa H paBHa tr, KpHBa.fl VS CTaHOBHTCfl npHMOH C HaKJIOHOM (1;-tr)K H CBo60!(HbIM YJIeHOM trK. I1Hcmumymbl PblHIW mpyoa 435 PaCCMOTpHM npHMep 3KOHOMHKH, He HMelOlJ!eH ,l:IocTyna Ha PblHOK Kpe,l:lHTOB. BblnnaTbJ 6e3pa60THbiM npe,l:lOCTaBmtlOTC.H CYIJ!eCTBYlOlJ!HMH qJHpMaMH no npHHUHny BblXO,l:lHOrO nOC06H.H, T.e. B pe3ynbTaTe neperOBopOB cPHPM H pa60THHKOB. 0603Ha4HM 4HCTblH ypOBeHb Hanoroo6no)KeHH.H (3a Bbl4eTOM Cy6CH,l:IHH Ha nOMep)KaHHe 3aH.HTOCTH) cPHPM 4epe3 r. Me)KBpeMeHHoe 6IO,l:I)KeTHOe orpaHH4eHHe npaBHTenb- CTBa HMeeT BH,l:I ry( 1-u) .. ub. BBe,l:leHHe 3Toro orpaHH"IeHH.H B 6a30BYlO MO,l:lenb npHBO,l:lHT K ,l:IByM pa3nH"IHblM cPopMynaM VS KPHBOH - B 3aBHCHMOCTH OT Toro, KaKa.H H3 nepeMeHHblX: r C4HTaeTC.H b HnH 3K30reHHoH. EcnH cPHKCHpOBaHa BenH4HHa b, TO r=ubl[y(l-u)] H (8.15') v=z..th- '(k(r+s)/{(l-i3)[y-bl(l-u) - 1- s(F-1)]-J3k}). 3TOT cnY4aH npe,l:lCTaBneH Ha pHC. 8.4 B BH,l:Ie CHH)KalOlJ!eHC.H KPHBOH VS. EcnH )Ke, Ha060poT, BenH4HHa b npHcnoca6nHBaeTC.H ,l:Infi nOMep- )KaHHfI nOCTOflHCTBa HanorOB, TO b=ry(l-u)/u H (8.15") v=uh '(k(r+s)/{(l-i3)[y-rlu-l-s(F-1)]-J3k}), a KpHBa.H VS CTaHOBHTCfI BOCXO,l:lfllJ!eH. I1HCTI1TYTbI 11 rnCTEPE3I1C: nACCI1BHO PEArl1PYIOIJJI1E BbInJTATbI no BE3PABOTl1y'E. 113 ypaBHeHHH 8.2 H 8.13 MO)KHO nonY4HTb: (8.16) U= s(l-u)-ux(l,h-I(k(r+s)/{(l-J3)[y-(b+l)-s(F-1)]-J3k}) = = s - (s+j)u, rlle j=x(l,h-'(k(r+s)/{(l-J3)[y-(b+l) - s(F-1)]-J3k}). 113MeHeHue ypOBHfI 6e3pa60THUbi Bbl3blBaeT H3MeHeHHe "lJ!ellPOCTH" BblnnaT no 6e3pa60- THue,HnH (8.17) b= AU , rlle »0. Pe3ynbTaTbi npellCTaBneHbl Ha pHC. 8.5 B BHlle cPa30BoH llHarpaMMbl B npocTpaHCTBe (b, u). I1MeeTcfI 6ecKoHe4Hoe MHO)KeCTBO COCTO.HHHH paBHoBecHfI, npellcTaBneHHblx KPHBOH UU. PeWeHH.HMH CHCTeMblllHHaMH4eCKHX ypaBHeHHH flBnfllOTC.H 0 H -(S+j+Vb); HyneBoe peweHHe 311eCb npellCTaBnfleT mCTepe3Hc B ero 06bl4HOM CMblcne (Giavazzi H Wyplosz 1985). 436 5e3pu6omul.lu, nepecmpoUKU 3KOriOMUKU U PhlriOK mpyou DH6JUlorpaY.lla l Tumo Boepu C Ha'-laJlOM 3IIe ,IJ,aHHlIle 0. '1HCJleHHOCTH pa60QeJ\ CltJlbl nOJl)"leHLI JTyTtM tlHTepnoJt.ltl,HlI eJKerO,ll,HLIX AaHHb.IX. no. 4>oPMYlle C!lOXl{oro npoueHT8. TURN 06p33o.M, noc.ne,ll):UfJl 4laKTHQeCIUJ[ HH¢OpMSnH.I OCT8BaJl8Cb cPHKCHPOSaHHOH: }l.o Tex nop, IIOKa He CTaHoBH.n:aCL ,ll.o(;TyYIHOH HOBU. YpoBeHl> 6e3pa6oTHl"bl paccttUTbIBaJ1CK KaK OTHOWeHHK '1Hena JaperllCTpliPOBaHHl>lX 6elpa50TH1>[X B )I,aHHOM MeCKue J( Ot;ttHKe ttHCJltHHOCTH pa50QefJ: CHJthl B TOM )l(C MeCjlu,e. YpoBeHb 6eJpa60TliU,hl ,lJ,JU[ 03CP Cpe,ll,lUJH CTaH,JJ.apTHJOBaHHblH: ypOBeHb 6t3pa50THllbI B CTpaHaX 03CP, nyOJ1HKyeMbIH B Quarterly Labour Force Slatistid. a, B:H~eweHHoe no QKCJ1tHHOCTH pa50'leH Ctrnbl. HCTOt{HHK: OEC{)"CCEhT. LahpaHllHIl 1,4 1,3 0.5 2,6 (1991 r.) HOpBerRR 1.6 1,6 0.8 3,3 (1991 r.) BeJlHlW6pHTaHHR (1991 r.) 1.3 1.1 2,4 HeT Jl.aJfHbIX, TIpHMeqaHHe: )l,P ,IlaJiHLre perH~TpaUHHI OPC OHPO",LI paooqeit ClfnhI; cpeJUIeMecsrqn8Jl "4HCJleHHOCTL np"TOKa " BbI6bITH.lf til COCTaB3 6elpa6oTHhlX, lJ,euTpa.nbnaJI H BOCTO\fi{al{ Espana H HCgOTopMe CTJHWtl 03CP. 3. Cpe,LUJeMeCiNHaJl \{Hc.neHHOCTb npHTOi.::a B weTaH oelpa6oTHhlX: K l.IHC.'1eHHOCTH paOOqeH CHJTl>r B 1992 f. (j(O~¢¢HUHeHTL{ npHToICa. oueneHAble Ha O-CHOHe JI.3.lHlbIX ope nOK3la.IlLI B CKo6K3X; ,L(aHHhle no 4CWCiCOH H CnOll3u,KOH pecny6JUn;:aM OTHOC1ITC)! K HepilOMY ope (f xu. 1993 r.); ;:J,anHhlC no 60nrapHH oueHl{BaJIHCL Ha OCHOBaHlfH neperIHcH HacenemUI ,Il.eKa6p)J 199:: r.t 6. CpC,lJ,neMeCilmaJl lIHc..leHUOCTh Bb16hfBSIOl1lHX 03 c-oCTaBa oe3paOOTHbiX B 1992- r. J{ cpe.lUierOAOBoH tjHcneHHocTU paoo4eH Cl-WbL H. Cpe,lUfeMCC5NHOe 4Hc:ro SaKaHcilH. 3allO:UHmmu C nOMoIUblO rocYAapCTBcuuLIX cnY>KO TPYAOYCTpOHCTBa K cpC.lUiCrOAoBoH 'UiCJ1eIIUOCTH paootjeH CHllhl. r. CTmr6eu I + CTrur6el1 2 )l.. O¢HUHMhtlhle ,ll.31l1-lbiC 0 40CJ1eIIllOCTH npHTOKIi:e LlOBOJIbHO WHPOKO HCnOJIb30BaJIHCb neHCHH no HHBaJIHLlHOCTH KaK cpeLlCTBO peWeHI1H np06JIeM C H36blT04HOH 3aHH- TOCTblO. B pe3YJIbTaTe Ha4aJIa pe3KO paCTI1 He TOJIbKO 6e3pa6oTI1!J,a, HO 11 411CJIeHHOCTb nOJIY4aTeJIeH LlOCP04HblX neHCI1H H neHCI1H no I1HBaJII1LlHOCTI1. Ii JIHWb Ha TpeTbeH CTaLlI1I1, KOTopaH B 60JIbWI1HCTBe CTpaH TOJIbKO-TOJIbKO Ha4aJIaCb, COKpa~eHl1e 3aHHTOCTI1 BI1LlI1MO TeCHO CBH3aHO C npHTOKOM B COCTaB 6e3pa6oTHblX, a He Bbl6blTHeM 113 COCTaBa pa604eH CI1JIbl. B03MO)KHO 3TO np0l130WJIO nOTOMY, 4TO LlJIH LlaJIbHeHWero paCWl1peHHH CI1CTeMbl LlOCP04HbiX BblXOLlOB Ha neHC1110 Y)Ke He XBaTaJIO cpeLlCTB 6IOLl)KeTa. KaK npeKpa~eHHe HaHMa HOBblX pa60THI1KOB, KOTopoe npOHCXOLlI1JIO B Ha4aJIe npo!J,ecca nepeXOLla (Boeri, 1993), TaK H TOT cPaKT, 4TO 60JIbWHHCTBO YBOJIeHHblX no COKpa~eHHIO WTaTOB 6blJII1 BblTeCHeHbl H3 COCTaBa pa604eH CHJIbl, a He CTaJIH 6e3pa60THblMH npl1BeJII1 K 3Ha4HTeJIbHOMY CHH)KeHHIO Y4aCTI1H HaCeJIeHI1H B pa604eH CHJIe. KaK nOKa3aHO B Ta6JII11,1,e 9-4, C Ha4aJIa npo!J,ecca nepexoLla LlOJIH 3KOHOMH4eCKI1 aKTI1BHoro HaCeJIeHHH (K03cPcPH!J,HeHTbl Y4acTHH 8 B pa604eH CHJIe) CHJIbHO cOKpaTHJIaCb BO Bcex cTpaHax perHoHa. B 6.,llOJIH BblnYCKHHKOB WKOJI B 06~eH 4HCJIeHHOCTH 6e3pa6oTHblX 6blJIa CpaBHI1TeJIbHO BeJIHKa B Ha4aJIe nepexoLla H C Tex nop cOKpa- ~aJIaCb B pe3YJIbTaTe 60JIee MO~HbIX nOTOKOB YBOJIeHHblX pa6oTHHKOB 11, B03MO)KHO, TaK)Ke KaK pe3YJIbTaT Y)KeCT04eHHH KpHTepHeB, KOTOPblMH OnpeLleJIHJIOCb npaBo nOJIY4aTb noc06He no 6e3pa60THy;e (OECD, 1992). 7. Hanpl1Mep, B BeH1p1111 411CJIeHHOCTb .HhlMH onpe,JJ,CJleHHXMlf neHCHOflHoro BOlpaCTS: MY:lC'UfHhl c nJITHa.Ill\aTH AO WCCTHAeC.iTH neT; .zCHUl,HHbI C n.ITlUl,ll.uaTH )1,0 fJ.iTlUlCCXTIl nRTIl neT. HCTO'UHnc: DonrapHjJ: Bee ,lJ.tUIHbJe B3.IITL1 H] nepemfCH TPYJlPBhU pecypCOB 11 BKR)()'IalOT tfaCTIfblU: c.eJ(TOp. lJernCKWJ Pecny6nHxa~ Bee )l.aHHhle 0 pa60QCH tune B3KTbi HJ ..oCftOBHhll aICOHOMHQecI{H:t nOK&3aTeJleA: lIemcKoH Pecny6nHKH." Hccne,JJ,OBaTeJll>CKHH HHC1'HTYT TPY.n,a H COUHaJlbHblJ: BonpocoB, J993 f. BCHrpH.I': )J,8JfHWC 0paootfcil CRne B 1990 r. B)JITLI "3 nepenUCH TpY)J.OBhlX peCypc.oB' H pe.rHCTpa 6e3paoonU:>ll; AaHHble 3a 1992 D 1993 IT. nonyqeHLI D3 OPC. nOJu.wa: ,IJ,aHHWe. 0 paootJe.j.{ CDne 3a 1989 r. BliThl D3 nepenDeD TPYlf.0BhII pecypCOB; ,D,aJlHhle 3a i992 if 1993 IT. nonY4e.Hbl D3 OPC. 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COrJlaCHO AaHHblM BeHrepc- Koro OPC, HanpHMep, BO BTOPOM KBapTane 1993 r. npHMepHo Ka)f(nblH 4eTBepTblH 6e3pa60THblH He 3aHHManCH aKTHBHblMH nOHCKaMH pa60Tbl. 452 Be3pa6omW.ia, nepecmpouxa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyaa MaClllTa6bl 3aHflTOCTI1 B LJaCTHOM CeKTOpe. TeM He MeHee, 113 PI1CYHKa 9-1 flCHO BI1,[1HO, LJTO ,[IOJIfI 3aHflTbiX Ha LJaCTHblX npe,[lnpl1f1TI1f1X 6blCTPO B03paCTaJIa BO Bcex CTpaHax, 11 He TOJIbKO nOTOMY, LJTO COKpal!!aJIaCb 3aHflTOCTb B rOCY,[IapCTBeHHOM ceKTope, HO 11 B pe3YJIbTaTe LJI1CTOrO npl1pOCTa 3aHflTOCTI1 B LJaCTHOM ceKTope. PMc.9-1. 3aHlITocn.: Macwa6w cnaAa Mpam. 'laCTHOl'O C6KTOpa 100 o ,M 1 1 ,. ''I''!oobWa .... .... BeHrpMlI _ roc. CCICTOP I!l!lI!l1IIiIII 'bCT. ceKTOp a. Ouemm OC}iOBaHhl Ha 1:I:1>I60po\fftLU o6cne.n.oBalUH(X 1991 H 1992 IT. MeTa",,"", OECD-CCET labour Marke' [}atabawl'yJ.u.IHlllICJlOBU.repMaH.lllBeIUU B 3KOHOMH4eCKOH nOA.Qep)KKe XpOHH4eCKHX 6e3pa60THbiX ,llOll)KHbl 6blTb CBe,lleHbl K MHHHMYMY. THrOTbl )KH3HH, B03HHKalOQ!He B pe3YllbTaTe He,llOCTaT04HOH MaTepHallbHOH nOA.Qep)KKH ,llllHTellbHO 6e3pa6oTHbiX MOry-T 6blTb npH4HHOH COlJHallbHOrO He,llOBOllbCTBa H nOllHTH4eCKOrO ,llaBlleHHH, KOTOpble B KOHe4HOM C4eTe MOryT oClla6HTb peWHMOCTb npaBHTellbCTB npH,llep)KHBaTbCH nOClle,llOBaTellbHOrO Kypca pecpOpM. COCTaB Mep aKTHBHOH nOllHTHKH Ha pblHKaX TPY,lla TaK)Ke Heo6xo,llHMO YT04HHTb C TeM, 4T06bl OHH He 06XO,llHllH CTOPOHOH HaH60llee (ITH)Kellble» CllY4aH. He06xo,llHMO TaK)Ke paCCMOTpeTb B03MO)KHOCTb nepeopHeHTHpOBaHHH HeKOTopblX H3 CYQ!eCTBYJOQ!HX nporpaMM (HanpHMep, nporpaMM 06Q!eCTBeHHbIX pa60T, eCllH He nepenO,llrOTOBKH) Ha XPOHH4ecKH 6e3pa60THb1X, KaK 6blllO He,llaBHO C,llellaHO B CTpaHax 03CP. HCHO, 4TO caMH no ce6e Mepbl nOllHTHKH Ha pblHKax Tpy,lla He MOryT peWHTb np06lleMbl. 3a4aCTYIO HX pOllb,nO-BH,llHMOMY, 3aKll104a- eTCH B npOCTOM nepepaCnpe,llelleHHH CYQ!eCTBYIOQ!HX BaKaHCHH, a He C03,llaHHH HOBblX pa60\.IHX MeCT. Ho pacnpOCTpaHeHHe xpOHH4eCKOH 6e3pa60THlJbl caMO no ce6e HBllHeTCH cpaKTopOM OTpHlJaTellbHO B03,lleHCTBYIOQ!HM Ha TPY,ll0YCTpoikTBO 6e3pa6oTHblX. TaKHM 06pa30M, npOCToe nepepaCnpe,llelleHHe BaKaHCHH C lJellblO COKpaQ!eHHH pa3HHlJbl B npO,llOll)KHTellbHOCTH 6e3pa60THlJbl MO)KeT OKa3aTb nOllO)KHTellbHoe BllHHHHe Ha CKOPOCTb norllOQ!eHHR 6e3pa60THlJbl 3KOHOMHKOH. nn6JUlOrpa(IHISI Aghion. P., and O. Blanchard. 1993. On lhe Speed of Transition in Cenlral Europe. EBRD Working Papers. No.6, London. Blanchard, 0., and P. Diamond. 1990. "The Aggregate Matching Function." In P. Diamond, ed., Producti,·iry. Growlh. Unemploymenl. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. 464 Be3pa6omuLJa, nepeCmpOUKa 3KOHOMUKU U PblHOK mpyoa Boeri, T. 1993. "Labor Market Flows and the Persistence of Unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe." Paper presented at the OECD Workshop, "The Persistence of Unemployment in CEECs," Paris, September. ----. Forthcoming. "Transitional Unemployment." In Economics of Transition. 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Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Papers, No. 90. Scarpetta. S., T. Boed, and A. Reuterswand. 1993. "Unemployment Benefit Systems and Active Labor Market Policies in Central and Eastern Europe: An Overview." Paper presented at the OECD Workshop, "The Persistence of Unemployment in CEECs," Paris, September 1993. Vecernik, j. 1993. "Czechoslovakia and the Czech Republic in 1990-93." Institute of Sociology, Academy of Sciences, Prague. Mimeo. CJIOBapb TepMHHOB AKTHBHAR nORMTMKA HA HapO~HOH opraHH3aUHH Tpy~a PbIHKE TPY,llA - COBOKynHOCTb (MOT) -International Labor Or- Mep, HanpaBJ1eHHblX Ha CHH)I(eHHe ganization (ILO) - 6e3pa6oTHblM ypOBH.R 6e3pa60THUbl. 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YBenHl.IHBalOl!!a.IIC.II TIPABI1JlO HAHMA ~AKmpA npeLlenbHa.II OTLlal.la (increasing (factor hiring rule) B 06l.J!eM, returns) I1MeeT MeCTO, KorLla MaKCI1MI13I1pYIOl.J!al1 npl16bWb MPP paCTeT BMeCTe C KOnI1YeC- cpl1pMa Llon~Ha YBenl1YI1BaTb TBOM Hcnonb3yeMoro pecypca. KOJJl.14eCTBO I1cnonb3yeMoro cpaK- TIocTO.IIHHan npeLlenbHan oTLla- Topa np0l13BOLlCTBa LlO Tex nop, l.Ia(constant returns) - KorLla nOKa He 6YLleT LlOCTl1rnYTa TOY- MPP OCTaeTCl1 Hel13MeHHbIM npl1 Ka, rLle npeLlenbHbIH npoLlYKT pOCTe KOnl1yeCTBa I1cnonb3yeMo- naHHoro cpaKTopa B LleHe~HOH ro pecypca. M~ COKpal!!alOl!!anC.II cpopMe paBeH ero npeLlenbHbIM npeLlenbHa.II OTLlal.la (decreasing cpaKTopHbIM 113nep~KaM. MaKCI1- returns)- KorLla MPP YMeHbwa- Ml13l1pYIOl.J!al1 npl16blnb cpl1pMa - eTCl1 npl1 pOCTe KOnHyeCTBa HC- COBepweHHblH KOHKypeHT KaK Ha nonb3yeMoro pecypca. pblHKe pecypcoB, TaK 11 rOTOBOH npOLlYKYl111 Llon~Ha HaHI1MaTb TIPE)],EJlbHbIH TIPO)],YKT B PE- CTonbKO eLlI1HI1Y cpaKTopa, YTo6bI AJlbHOM BbIPAIKEHl111 (mar- CTOI1MOCTb npeLlenbHoro npOnYK- ginal physical product) DPHPOCT Ta cpaKTopa 6blna paBHa ero ye- npOLlYKYI1H, nonyyeHHblH B pe- He. 3ynbTaTe Hcnonb30BaHHl1 CPI1PMOH aOnOnHI1TenbHOH eLlI1HI1YbI OaHO- TIPE)],EJlbHMI HOPMA TEX- ro pecypca npH COXpaHeHl111 no- HI1\:fECKOrO 3AMElJ!EHI1H (M- CTOl1HHOrO ypOBHl1 I1cnonb30Ba- RTS) (marginal rate of technical Hl1l1 Bcex npOYHX pecypCOB. substitution) DponopYl1l1, B KOTO- pOM OLlI1H cpaKTOp Mo~eT 6blTb TIPI1)],EPIKI1BAHI1EPA60THI1- 3aMeHeH apyrl1M npH COXpaHeHl111 KOB (labor hoarding) - coxpaHe- nOCTOl1HHblM 06'beMa BbmYCKa. HHe Ha npeanpm:ITI1I1 1136bITOY- CJ106apb mepMWi06 471 Horo nepCOHafla. BCTynalOij!UX B pll,/lbl pa6o'leu CUJ1bl, - Hanp. cTYlleHToB, OIYH- equilibrium) B CI-ITyal,J.HH B3aHMO- KUHH, nOKa3bIBaJOij!aH HaH6oflb- LleHcTBHH 31<0HOMH4eCI;1UKU U PbtHOK mpyaa HH.1lEKC flOTPEEHTEJIbCKHX B BeHrpHH 40-43; B flOJlbWe L1.EH 84; B POCCHH 187; B PYMbI- B EonrapliH 247; B BeHrpHH HHH 301; B CnoBaKHH 145; B 26; B flonbwe 83; B POCCHH "4exHH 145; MelKAYHapoA- 188. 191; B CnoBaKHH H B Hble conOCTaBJleHHR 376. "4exHH 127. ITPH.1lEP~HBAHHE PAEOTHH- HH.1lEKC L1.EH ITPOH3BO.1lHTE- KOB 226-229; 232; 364; 372. JIEH B EcnrapHH 247; B ITonbwe ITPOH3BO,lJ,HTEJIbHOCTb TPYLlA 80; B POCCHH 188. 194; B CnoBaKHH H B "4exHH 127. B EOJlrapHH 247; B flonbwe 372; B POCCHH 194; B PYMbI- HH,lJ,EKCALl.HH 3APAEOTHOH HHH 308; B CJlOBaKHH H B flJIATbI "4exHH 127; MeXCOI03bI B EonrapHH 241-245; B HHCAH.1lEPbI 63-65, 365 PYMblHHH 312; B "4exHH 139; MelKAYHapoAHble cono- K034>4>HLl.HEHT 3AMElllEHHH CTaBJleHHII 365. B EonrapHH 280; B BeHrpHH 59; B "4exHH 163; MelKAYHa- P AEO"4AH CHJIA pOAHble conocTaBneHHlI382, BblxoA H3 COCTaBa pa60'leH CHJlbl H 421. BCTynJleHHe B pRAbI pa60'leH CHJlbl B EOJlrapHH 272; B BeHrpHH KPHBAH 4>HJIJIHITCA 222, 266. 30; B ITOJlbWe 94-95; B Py- 270. MblHHH 290; B CJlOBaKHIl H B "4exHH 163; MeXYHKI.tHH TPYAOYCTPOACTBA B BOJlrapHH 255; B BeHrpHH 410,455-458. 43, 51, 57; B fIOJlbWe 96; 102; B POCCHH 200-204; B l.JACTHbIH CEKTOP PYMbIHHH 325; B CJlOBaKHH POJlb B 3KOHOMHKe 170; B 4exHH 169; Me~y­ B EOJlrapHH 270; B BeHrpHH Hapo~Hble conOCTaBJleHHIl 40; B nOJlbWe 76. 85-86; B 375. POCCHH' 205; B PYMhlHHH 334; B CJlOBaKHH H B 4exHH YPOBEHb OTTOKA H3 BE3PA- 167;Me~YHapoJlHhlecono­ BOTHI.tbl CTaBJleHHIl 362. B BOJlrapHH 273; B BeHrpHH 54; B fIOJlbWe 97; B POCCHH 219; B PYMblHHH 340; B CJlOBaKHH H B 4exHH 165; Me)K~YHapoJlHble conOCTaB- JleHHIl 55,445. YPOBEHb fIPHTOKA B PHAbl EE3PABOTHblX B BOJlrapHH 273; B BeHrpHH 54; B fIOJlbWe 97; B POCCHH 219; B PYMblHHH 340; B CJlOBaKHH 166; B 4exHH 166; Me)KllYHapOJlHble CO no- CTaBJleHHH 55, 445. YPOBEHb TPYAOYCTPOHCTBA B BOJlrapHH 273; B BeHrpHH 51, 57; B fIOJlbWe 104; B COBMeCTHhm u;eJITp nepenOWOTOBKH MOCKOBCKOro ymmepCHTeTa B HHCTBTyTa 3KOHo~eCKoro Pa3BBTBJI BCeMBPHOrO BaBKa (QeJITp H3P/MrY) H3P/MfY o6pa30BaH B 1992 rom' B COOTBeTCTBHH C COrJIameHHeM Mex,n;y HHCTHTYTOM :9KOHOMHQeCKOrO pa3BHTH5I BceMHpHoro BaHKa H MOCKOBCKHM YHHBepCHTeTOM. OCHOBHa.sI ct>YH~H5I UeHTpa - nepenO,IU'OTOBKa rocy,n;apCTBeHHblX CJIY2Kam;HX H npeno,n;aBaTeJIeil C D;eJIbIO co,n;eilcTBH5I npeo6pa30BaHH5IM B POCCHH H ,n;pyrHx rocy~apcTBax ClIf. C 1992 ro,n;a 'B UeHTpe • npOBe,n;eHO 27 nporpaMM; • npOmJIH nepeno,n;rOTOBKY CBblme 700 rocy,n;apcTBeHHbIx CJIY2Kam;HX OCHOBHbIX :9KOHOM~eCKHX MHHHcTepcTB POCCHH, CTpaH ClIf, a TaK2Ke npeno,n;aBaTeJIeil; • 06yqaJIHCb npe,n;CTaBHTeJIH 25 CTpaH, B TOM QHCJIe Bcex rocy,n;apCTB ClIf. UeHTp H3P/MfY opraHH3yeT nporpaMMbI no CJIe,n;YIOm;HM HanpaBJIeHH5IM: • OCHOBHble npHHD;HnbI PblHOQHOil :9KOHOMHKH; • MaKpO:9KOHOM~eCKa.sI nOJIHTHKa; • aHaJIH3 H ynpaBJIeHHe HHBeCTHD;HOHHbIMH npoeKTaMH; • qmHaHcoBbIiI aHaJIH3 H MeHe.D;2KeMeHT; • CneD;HaJIH3HpOBaHHbIe nporpaMMbI ,n;JI5I MHHHCTepCTB, perHOHOB H opraHH3aD;HiI no pa3JIHQHbIM np06JIeMaM nepexo,n;Hoil :9KOHOMHKH. IJ;eHTp TaIOKe ocym;ecTBJUleT: • OpraHH3an;HIO OT6opo't:IHbIX n;HKJIOB ~JUI KOMaH~HpOBaHH~ cllymaTelleH ~ll~ npO~Oll)KeHH~ 06~eHH~ 3a py6e)KOM; • nO~rOTOBKY H H3~aHHe ~e6HO-MeTO~Hl{eCKOH llHTepaTYPbI H nOC06HH; • Koop~HHan;HIO ~e~TellbHOCTH H OKa3aHHe CO~eHCTBH~ nporpaMMaM no PbIHOl{HOH 3KOHOMHKe II IJ;eHTpaM nepeno~rOTOBKH M3P B CTpaHax eRf. H 3~BKH no OpraHH3an;HH nporpaMM IIpe~o)KeHH~ npOCHM HanpaBJUITb no Mpecy: MOCKBa, Bopo6beBbI fOPbI, II Kopnyc, MIIIIK, IJ;eHTp M3P/MfY, KOM. 838, Tell. 939-14-44, 939-15-42, cj)aKc 939- 14-44. Be3pa6oT11~a, CTPYKTypHaH nepeCTpOHKa 3KOHOM11K11 11 PbIHOK TPY ~a B BOCTOqHOM EBpone 11 POCCJ.1:J.1: JIP N 070B24 OT 21.01.93 r. IIo~m1caHo B ne"LfaTb 31.07.95. opMaT 60x90/16. BYMara ocpceTHaH N 1. rapHl'tTypa "Leeds". IIe"LfaTb ocpceTHaH. YCJI. ne"Lf. JI. 29,B7. TJ1pam 2000 3K3. 3aKaa !.leHa ~oroBopHaH. Y.[3~aTeJIbCTBO "11HPA-M" 127247 MocKBa, AMJ1TpOBCKoe W., 107. TeJI. 4B5-70-63; 485-74-00; ¢aKc 485-53-18 Fmail: Releom-contract@infram.msk.ru AOOT ".HpOCJIaBCKJ1ti. nOJIl'trpacpKoM6l'tHaT" 150049 .HpOCJIaBJIb, YJI. CBo6o~bI, 97.