The World Bank Report No: ISR9822 Implementation Status & Results Bulgaria Social Inclusion Project (P100657) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Social Inclusion Project (P100657) Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 8 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 17-May-2013 Country: Bulgaria Approval FY: 2009 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Key Dates Board Approval Date 04-Nov-2008 Original Closing Date 31-Oct-2013 Planned Mid Term Review Date 10-Dec-2012 Last Archived ISR Date 21-Nov-2012 Effectiveness Date 16-Apr-2009 Revised Closing Date 31-Oct-2013 Actual Mid Term Review Date 22-Jun-2012 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The project development objective for the Social Inclusion Project is to promote social inclusion through increasing the school readiness of children below the age of 7, targeting low-income and marginalized families (including children with a disability and other special needs). Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Component I: Integrated social and childcare services 48.09 Component II: Capacity-building 3.23 Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Public Disclosure Copy Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status Overview The project development objective (PDO) of the Bulgaria Social Inclusion Project (SIP) is unlikely to be accomplished by the end of the Project (October 31, 2013) because of the significant implementation delays and the inadequate expenditure limits set by the Government for 2012 and 2013. On September 29, 2012, the Government requested an extension of the SIP’s closing date by 20 months but was unable to ensure the resources required for project implementation over the requested extension period by increasing the spending limits for 2012 and 2013. Thus, the project restructuring processed and endorsed by the Bank in the end of 2012 did not include extension of the SIP’s closing date. Seven months before SIP’s closing, the Project has disbursed approximately one-third of the approved loan amount. The original disbursement lag is 35 months. Despite attempts to expedite implementation and recover from the accrued delays, the Project came to a standstill in the second half of 2012 as the Project's expenditure limit set for 2012 was reached at mid- Page 1 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR9822 year. During the first quarter of the calendar 2013 the Project regained implementation speed and 38.9 percent (USD 3.5 million) of its annual spending limit was already disbursed by the end of March 2013; about EUR 2.7 million was disbursed from the Bank’s loan during this period. An achievable target by the end of SIP’s closing date within the expenditure limit for 2013 is the completion of all construction works supported by the Project. Civil works have Public Disclosure Copy already been completed on 57 out of the 79 project sites with new construction, reconstruction or rehabilitation works. Construction in the remaining one-third of the Project's sites is at an advanced stage. The passing winter season holds a promise for a steep increase in disbursements in the coming months. Under the present circumstances, however, the integrated social inclusions services (which are at the heart of the project) will not commence before the end of the Project. In light of the above, the accomplishment of the PDO is possible only through provision of adequate financing within a timeline that would allow (i) implementation of the SIP’s integrated social inclusion services, and (ii) its seamless transition to financing through the EU funded Operational Program "Development of Human Resources" (OPDHR) for the new programming period 2014-2020. The latter is currently being drafted and it already contains measures ensuring the sustainability of the SIP services. However, the funding under these measures will become accessible to the municipalities towards the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, thus leaving a gap of one year between the SIP’s current closing date and the time when the funding opportunities from OPDHR will become available. Locations No Location data has been entered Results Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Cognitive development and school readiness Text Value (i) 25% n/a (i) 27% scores, incuding (i) memory, verbal and visual- (ii) 42% (ii) 45% motor skills development, (ii) fluency (iii) 36 % (iii) 40 % inBulgarian; (iii) achievement test results Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Reflects the shares of Premature to measure impact Reflects the expected share vulnerable children who pass as activities not yet of vulnerable children who the respective diagnostic tests implemented. Measuring this will pass the respective in domains (i), (ii) and (iii) in indicator requires a mid term diagnostic tests in domains respective ages of4 (i), 5(ii) and final IE. Midterm IE has (i), (ii) and (iii) in respective and 6 (iii). Results taken from not been initiated because of ages of4 (i), 5(ii) and 6 (iii) at the Baseline survey inadequate SIP spending the end of the project. Public Disclosure Copy completed in June 2012. limits. Indicator suggested for revision and simplification through restructuring due to methodological constraints. Child nutrition in target population (as proxied Text Value (i) 1.34 n/a (i) 1.51 by anthropometric measures) (ii) 12.84% (ii)10.84% (iii) 9.88% (iii) 7.80% Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Page 2 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR9822 Comments Indexes reflect the following Premature to measure impact areas: (i) overall health index as activities not yet based on parental survey, (ii) implemented. Measuring this share of children with height indicator requires a mid term Public Disclosure Copy anthropometric measures and final IE. Midterm IE has below -2S and (iii) share of not been initiated because of children with weight inadequate SIP spending anthropometric measures limits. below - 2S. Indicator suggested for revision through restructuring due to methodological constraints. Share of vulnerable children aged 6 who pass Percentage Value 36.00 40.00 the school readiness diagnostic test Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator. Indicator not yet effective. Reflects only dimension (iii) in Supplemental Letter 2 not yet indicator 1. To become signed by the Ministry of effective after possible Finance. restructuring. Number of children aged 3-6 newly enrolled in Number Value 0.00 0.00 3000.00 kindergartens and preschool groups through Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 the project Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not yet possible restructuring. signed by the Ministry of Finance. Number of children with disabilities and other Number Value 0.00 0.00 150.00 special needs enrolled in mainstream Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 kindergartens and preschool groups through Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. the project become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not yet possible restructuring. signed by the Ministry of Finance. Public Disclosure Copy Number of beneficiaries of the “Early Number Value 0.00 0.00 2000.00 Intervention of Disabilities� service Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not yet possible restructuring. signed by the Ministry of Finance. Intermediate Results Indicators Page 3 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR9822 Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Parenting skills (as proxied by frequency Text Value -1.31 n/a -1.19 ofparent-child interaction) Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Public Disclosure Copy Comments This composite indicator Premature to measure This composite indicator relies on a sample-based impact. Activities not yet relies on a sample-based survey of parents. Not reliable implemented. Measuring this survey of parents. Not reliable and suggested for revision indicator requires a mid term and suggested for revision under possible restructuring. and final IE. Midterm IE has under possible restructuring. not been initiated because of inadequate SIP spending limits. This composite indicator relies on a sample- based survey of parents. Not reliable and suggested for revision. Will be removed if the Supplemental letter 2 is signed. Rate of enrollment in mainstream preschooland Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 kindergarten among children below the age of Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 7 from low income and marginalized families Comments Official statistics on children Premature to measure Official statistics on children from marginalized families impact. Activities not yet from marginalized families unavailable, baseline study implemented. Measuring this unavailable. Suggested was unable to collect data. indicator requires a mid term revision of this indicator under suggested revision of this and final IE. Midterm IE has possible restructuring indicator under possible not been initiated because of restructuring inadequate SIP spending limits. Indicator will be revised if the Supplemental letter 2 is signed by the Ministry of Finance. Rate of enrollment of children with a disability Percentage Value 48.00 54.00 in mainstream preschool, kindergarten and Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Public Disclosure Copy child care centers in participating municipalities Comments Available statistics unreliable. Premature to measure Available statistics unreliable. Suggested revision of this impact. Activities not yet Suggested revision of this indicator under a possible implemented. Measuring this indicator under a possible restructuring. indicator requires a mid term restructuring. and final IE. Midterm IE has not been initiated because of inadequate SIP spending limits. Page 4 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR9822 Share of children who received full set of Percentage Value 86.40 88.60 immunizations Date 29-Dec-2011 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Problematic attribution of the Problematic attribution of the Problematic attribution of the Public Disclosure Copy indicator- project does not indicator- project does not indicator- project does not fund vaccines nor influences fund vaccines nor influences fund vaccines nor influences on state policies in this on state policies in this on state policies in this respect. Data collected respect. The indicator will be respect through the baseline IE removed if the Supplemental survey. Letter 2 is signed by the Ministry of Finance. Number of newly created places in Number Value 0.00 775.00 1600.00 kindergarten and preschool groups through the Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 project Comments Proposed new indicator to This indicator is not yet become effective after effective, Supplemental letter possible restructuring. is not signed yet. Only newly created places in project sites with an issued "Permission for use" have been counted. Number of newly created facilities for delivery Number Value 0.00 40.00 68.00 of integrated social inclusion services through Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 the project Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. The become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not possible restructuring. signed yet by the Ministry of Finance. Number of parents of children aged 0-3 who Number Value 0.00 0.00 15000.00 received parenting skills counseling Date 31-May-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. The become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not possible restructuring. signed yet by the Ministry of Finance. Number of children aged 0-6 who benefitted Number Value 0.00 0.00 15000.00 Public Disclosure Copy from the “Health Consultation� services Date 31-May-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. The become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not possible restructuring. signed yet by the Ministry of Finance. Number of municipal staff trained in public Number Value 0.00 133.00 120.00 procurement rules and procedures under the Date 30-Jun-2011 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 project Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. Supplemental Letter 2 not Page 5 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR9822 become effective after signed yet by the Ministry of possible restructuring. Finance. Activity completed and target level exceeded. SIP Project Management Information System Text Value not due PMIS in use PMIS in use Public Disclosure Copy (PMIS) developed and operationalized Date 30-Jun-2011 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. Activity completed and target become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not met. possible restructuring. signed yet. Activity completed and target met. Number of municipal staff trained in project Number Value 0.00 120.00 120.00 reporting and monitoring and evaluation Date 30-Jun-2011 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. Activity completed and target become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not met. possible restructuring. signed yet. Activity completed and target met. Number of kindergartens and crèches’ staff Number Value 0.00 0.00 1400.00 trained under the project Date 22-Jun-2012 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Indicator not yet effective. become effective after Supplemental Letter 2 not possible restructuring. signed yet. Premature to measure. Activities not yet implemented. Baseline, mid-term and final project impact Text Value not due mid-term IE survey not Baseline, Midterm and Final evaluation (IE) surveys conducted implemented IE surveys conducted and analytical report with survey results produced Date 30-Jun-2011 29-Mar-2013 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Midterm evaluation not become effective after implemented due to possible restructuring. inadequate expenditure limit. Final evaluations not due yet Public Disclosure Copy but unlikely to be implemented because of inadequate expenditure limit for the SIP in 2013. Data on Financial Performance (as of 08-Mar-2013) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P100657 IBRD-76120 Effective 04-Nov-2008 18-Nov-2008 16-Apr-2009 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2013 Page 6 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR9822 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P100657 IBRD-76120 Effective USD 59.00 59.00 0.00 16.74 40.01 28.00 Public Disclosure Copy Disbursement Graph Key Decisions Regarding Implementation World Bank stands ready to timely process a renewed Government request for extension of the SIP’s closing date by up to 23 months (September 30, 2015), provided that the Government ensures that SIP spending needs over the extended implementation period are fully matched by the budget expenditure limits for 2013, 2014 and 2015. Restructuring History Level two Approved on 09-Jun-2010, Level two Approved on 31-May-2011, Level two Approved on 14-Dec-2012 Public Disclosure Copy Related Projects There are no related projects. Page 7 of 7