The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 Implementation Status & Results Mexico Mexico Forests and Climate Change Project (P123760) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Mexico Forests and Climate Change Project (P123760) Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 5 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 01-Jul-2014 Country: Mexico Approval FY: 2012 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Key Dates Board Approval Date 31-Jan-2012 Original Closing Date 28-Feb-2017 Planned Mid Term Review Date 31-Mar-2015 Last Archived ISR Date 07-Jan-2014 Effectiveness Date 20-Nov-2012 Revised Closing Date 28-Feb-2017 Actual Mid Term Review Date Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The PDO is to support rural communities in Mexico to sustainably manage their forests, build social organization, and generate additional income for forest products and services including the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Policy Design and Institutional Strengthening 41.66 Consolidation of Priority Community-Based Programs at National Level 320.00 Innovation for REDD+ in Early Action Areas 30.34 Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Public Disclosure Copy Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Moderate Implementation Status Overview This ISR reflects the main outcomes of the supervision mission conducted from May 6 to 16, 2014 in Mexico: this mission included 4 days of field visits in the Peninsula de Yucatan, jointly with IDB, AFD and national entities, 3 days in Mexico-DF where meetings with representatives of CSOs were organized (jointly and individually) and working sessions in CONAFOR headquarters in Guadalajara. The PBCC project has been approved by the WB Board on January 31, 2012 and got effective on November 20, 2012. While implementation of the activities was very slow during the Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 first months after effectiveness, it has now reached a good pace, particularly under components 1 and 2. Progress under Component 3 is still preliminary, mainly due to the innovative nature of this component and the needs for coordination with other institutions (such as SAGARPA and SEMARNAT) at the landscape level. Locations Public Disclosure Copy No Location data has been entered Results Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Increase of forest area under improved Percentage Value 0.00 13.00 10.00 management and reduced carbon emissions Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 practices Comments This baseline has been CONAFOR revised the End target value will be revised on May 2014 during methodology for this indicator. revised as well to reflect the the SPN mission. As a matter As a result, it indicated that adjustments to the of fact (and as per the methodology proposed in methodology. Any change will methodology presented in the the PAD (allowing for double be made during MTR. PAD), one hectare could be or triple accounting forest accounted more than one areas) was of little use and time (based on the number of potentially misleading. It thus apoyos received). CONAFOR proposed to only account requested a change in the once any hectare under methodology and thus the sustainable forest baseline (as it found it of little management practices use and potentially (whatever the number of misleading). apoyos it receives from The baseline (year 2011) has CONAFOR). now been established at As of May 2014, results have 2,789,995 ha. been compiled for the PRODEFOR and the PSA (aknowledging that some other programs should be included in the future but this Public Disclosure Copy would require additional work/ time for CONAFOR team): as a result the baseline and results in 2012 and 2013 have been revised as following baseline: 2,789,995 ha Year 1: 2,886,236 ha (increase by 3 per cent) Year 2: 3,159,877 ha (increase by 13 per cent). Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 Increase in number of communities building Percentage Value 4000.00 0.00 20.00 social organization and generating income from Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 sustainable production of forest goods and Comments Similar to the previous CONAFOR presented the End target value will be services including REDD+ Public Disclosure Copy indicator, the methodology for proposed adjustments to the revised as well to reflect the this indicator did not allow methodology for this indicator adjustments to the avoiding double counting for (along the line of the changes methodology. Any change will communities receiving for the previous indicator), be made during MTR. multiple CONAFOR apoyos. with the same objective of not In addition, it was not clear accounting more than once how the value of the baseline the same community. While was derived. A new Communities and Ejidos are methodology was agreed, now providedwith an which will include all the identification number (since communities and ejidos 2013, in a partial manner) receiving CONAFOR apoyos which allows to avoid any under the project without double-counting, the double counting. CONAFOR challenge remains for2011, will revise the baseline value 2012 and to some extent for once it is able to report 2013. CONAFOR will keep according to this new working on the database to methodology. compile these numbers but for now, the WB teamestimated that it was not given any credible enough numbers to be reported in this ISR. Reduction of net deforestation and forest Percentage Value degradation in selected landscapes within Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 REDD+ Early Action Areas compared to Comments Baseline has been It is expected that the new baseline (number of hectares, or equivalent net CO2 emissions) established at 3.6 million MRV system will be up-and- tCO2eq per year, in line with running starting July 2015, the approach and and could allow an annual methodology for the reporting (baseline mayhave Public Disclosure Copy Reference Levels included in to be adjusted to ensure Mexico’s ER-PIN under the consistency). FCPF Carbon Fund. The value reflects the annual In case the MRV system is average of the projected trend not operational, CONAFOR between 2012-2020(based on will continue using data preliminary modeling). generated fromINEGI and two Nota: It is expected that this measurements would be value will be revised as the Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 Reference Level approach is made available, one at MTR refined during the preparation and one at project completion. of the ER-Program. Public Disclosure Copy Intermediate Results Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Number of CONAFOR field offices Number Value 0.00 15.00 32.00 rehabilitated, equipped, staffed and trained Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 Comments CONAFOR has prepared a Based on the strategy strategy for the rehabilitation/ prepared by CONAFOR, the reinforcement of the field end target value is likely to be offices (Promotorias), with the increased. Any change will be objective of prioritizing the made during MTR. efforts in areas targeted by the PRONAFOR. In 2013, 15 promotorias were rehabilitated and 17 additional are to be rehabilitated by the end of 2014. Percentage of community forest management Percentage Value 85.20 86.90 100.00 permits and special permits approved within Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 the legal span Comments During the SPN mission in While adjusting the December 2013, CONAFOR methodology for this indicator, indicated that it could not see CONAFOR also adjusted the how the proposed baseline value for the baseline. Value (91 percent) was calculated. It for 2013 is now set at 86.9 was agreed that as part of the per cent, while value for 2012 revision of the methodology, was revised at 88.4%. The the baseline could also be team will engage in further adjusted. As a result, technical discussions on the CONAFOR presented in May methodology for this indicator Public Disclosure Copy 2014 a new baseline for 2011 as it might not meaningfully of 85.2 per cent reflect the real problems faced by communities as observed during the field visits.. Any change will be made during MTR. Improved monitoring and evaluationsystem for Yes/No Value No No Yes CONAFOR-supported programs (including Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 MRV) is operational Comments CONAFOR has proposed a strong methodology to Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 measure progress on this indicator: proposed methodology goes much beyond yes/no and tracks Public Disclosure Copy progress on three M&E systems in place in CONAFOR (MRV system, Sistema de Monitoreo y Evaluacion de proyectos and SIGA), defining clear milestones for each of them. In addition, the mission could note significant progress on the 3 M&E systems, including addition of geo-referenced database. While this indicator can not yet be turned to "yes", the mission can report major progress, , although additional efforts are required. An integrated CONAFOR-SAGARPA-DGF Yes/No Value No No Yes database is operational Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 Comments On track - The CONAFOR- SAGARPA-DGF working group is still working on establishing bridges between the different databases and goodprogress has been reported. CONAFOR has proposed a new methodology to track progress on this indicator, which will not be on a Yes/No basis. Rather, it will Public Disclosure Copy track progress on data integration around 6 different aspects (5 for SEMARNAT- CONAFOR and 1 for SAGARPA-CONAFOR). These changes will be introduced during the MTR. Number of certified private technical service Number Value 0.00 1446.00 800.00 providers Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 Comments This end target value has End target value may be been already surpassed for revised as well to reflect new this indicator (as per context. Any change will be explanation provided in made during MTR. Public Disclosure Copy December 2013). CONAFOR is now focusing on the quality of the expertise of the technical service providers: as such CONAFOR proposed to include another indicatorthat would track qualitatively the technical support provided to the communities/ejidos: this indicator would be considered for inclusion at MTR. Number of knowledge assets on REDD+ Number Value 0.00 2.00 10.00 created and shared Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 Comments Mexico continues as a major player on REDD+ at the international level and particularly through the knowledge creation (cf. on benefit-sharing, MRV ...). Beyond peer-reviewed reports, a lot of knowledge products are produced in Mexico from various actors. Increase in Social Organization Index in Percentage Value 0.00 20.00 communities that participate in demand-driven Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 programs on community forestry and payment Comments Baseline (initial value of The results of the 2012 for environmental services Social Organization Index - survey has been processed Public Disclosure Copy UNAM methodology) has and baseline is now been determined at 47.7 (alta established at 47.7 (alta organización) in early 2014, organización). based on 2012 survey and The 2014 survey campaign is can now be reported in this on-going and results will be ISR. compiled in 2015. Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 Increase in Economic Development Indexin Percentage Value 20.00 communities that partiicpate in demand-driven Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 programs on community forestry and payment Comments Baseline (initial value of The results of the 2012 CONAFOR has indicated that for environmental services Public Disclosure Copy Economic Development Index survey has been processed the proposed targeted - UNAM methodology) has and baseline is now increase by 20 percent is been determined at 3.2 (nulo established at 3.2 (nulo considered too low and that desarrollo) in early 2014, desarrollo). this should be increased by based on 2012 survey and The 2014 survey campaign is MTR. can now be reported in this on-going and results will be ISR compiled in 2015. Reduction of loss of forest cover (net Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 8.00 deforestation rate) nationwide, compared to Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 initial value Comments The new methodology It is expected that the new proposed by CONAFOR MRV system will be up-and- proposes to establish the running starting July 2015, annual average net historic and could allow an annual forest cover loss between the reporting (baseline mayhave period 2000-2010 as the to be adjusted to ensure baseline for this indicator. The consistency). average net forest cover loss was calculated for the In case the MRV system is 2000-2010 period, based on not operational, CONAFOR data generated by INEGI, and will continue using data established at 195,000ha/yr generated fromINEGI and two (235,000 ha/yr for the period measurements would be 2000-2005, and 155,000 ha/yr made available, one at MTR for the period 2005-2010, and one at project completion. currently under revision) source: PRONAFOR, 2014) Percentage of participating communities Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 100.00 receiving support from innovative landscape Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 management agents (ATL/ADL) in REDD+ Comments Implementation has been We discussed with Early Action Areas Public Disclosure Copy delayed as the conventions CONAFOR that the proposed with ATLs have not been target may be very signed yet. A particular focus challenging and should be re- will be given to the consider at MTR. Component 3.3 to ensure that everything is in place to ensure a prompt launch of the activities. Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 Number of operational agreements among Number Value 0.00 0.00 4.00 CONAFOR, SAGARPA, and States in support Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 of REDD+ Comments CONAFOR indicated some Public Disclosure Copy difficulties in coordiinating with the different authorities to set programs/activities to support REDD+ (this has been highlighted as a challenge for the project). CONAFOR will continue to reach out and the WB team will also support this effort during the SPN missions. Number of new community-based, Number Value 0.00 0.00 18.00 economically viable, REDD+ focussed, Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 initiatives with demonstrated potential for Comments There are still discussions It is expected that the End replication at scale within CONAFOR on what Target value might be means a "community-based, adjusted based on the new economically viable, REDD+ methodology agreed. focussed, initiatives with demonstrated potential for replication at scale". The preparation of the ER- Program under the Carbon Fund will help define more clearly this type of initiatives. Increase in the proportion of CONAFOR and Percentage Value 9.00 9.00 50.00 SAGARPA investments mobilized through the Date 20-Mar-2012 31-May-2014 28-Feb-2017 new REDD+integrated landscape mechanisms Comments Methodology should also be in REDD+ Early Action Areas better defined. Public Disclosure Copy Data on Financial Performance (as of 05-Jun-2014) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P123760 IBRD-81200 Effective 31-Jan-2012 25-May-2012 20-Nov-2012 28-Feb-2017 28-Feb-2017 P123760 TF-11570 Effective 31-Jan-2012 25-May-2012 20-Nov-2012 28-Feb-2017 28-Feb-2017 P123760 TF-11648 Effective 25-May-2012 25-May-2012 20-Nov-2012 28-Feb-2017 28-Feb-2017 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Report No: ISR14781 P123760 IBRD-81200 Effective USD 350.00 350.00 0.00 81.36 268.64 23.00 P123760 TF-11570 Effective USD 16.34 16.34 0.00 1.78 14.56 11.00 P123760 TF-11648 Effective USD 25.66 25.66 0.00 2.12 23.54 8.00 Public Disclosure Copy Disbursement Graph Key Decisions Regarding Implementation The Progress towards achievement of PDO is rated Satisfactory, as well as the Implementation progress. In 2013, 3.1 million of hectares received supports from the national programs PRODEFOR and Payments for Environmental Services, which constitutes an increase of 13% from the 2011 baseline. Over the past few months, CONAFOR has made significant efforts to ensure a better inclusion of Indigenous peoples as beneficiaries of national forest programs, through specific measures in terms of access to information (culturally-appropriated) and targeting support. CONAFOR adopted a new "Strategy to increase Forest Production and Productivity" for the 2013-2018 period (PRONAFOR): this strategy falls under the Pillar 2 of the "México Public Disclosure Copy Próspero" on Green Growth: in order to ensure a better alignment between the project and the strategy, adjustments have been made to the ceiling under the Programs PRODEFOR and Cadenas Productivas. Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Projects There are no related projects. Page 9 of 9