70942 Proceedings from the joint workshop co-organized by: the World Bank, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and the World Meteorological Organization Washington, D.C. – March 12, 2012 The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Deputy Minister of Environment Protection of Georgia. The �ndings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and Special thanks go to Vladimir Tsirkunov (GFDRR) for his guidance and advice which helped the do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop- team shape the agenda of this event. ment (the World Bank) and its af�liated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they The team The workshop was co-organized with WMO and UNISDR. represent. would like to express its appreciation for the productive cooperation with individuals from these institutions, in The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The particular Maryam Golnaraghi, WMO; Mary Power, WMO; and Stefanie Dannenmann-Di boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do Palma, UNISDR Europe. not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Proceedings from the joint workshop co-organized by: the World Bank, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, and the World Meteorological Organization Washington, D.C. – March 12, 2012 The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Acknowledgements T he workshop on the Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management and the preparation of the following proceedings were made possible by the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Innovation Grant Program which provided funding for this effort through a competitive grant. The task team expresses its appreciation to Xiaonan Cao, ECA, Knowledge and Learning Coordinator, for his kind trust in this initiative. The team would like to express its gratitude to Laszlo Lovei, Director, ECA Sustainable Development Department (ECSSD) for his generous contribution and support to this knowledge-exchange initiative. The task team was led by Jolanta Kryspin-Watson (ECSSD, Urban, Water and Disaster Risk Management Unit) and consisted of: Sergio Dell’Anna (ECSSD), Lynette Alemar (ECSSD), Curtis Barrett (Hydromet Expert, Consultant), Anita Gordon (Editor, Consultant) and Victoria Salinas (GFDRR). The workshop and this publication bene�ted from invaluable insights and inputs from its participants and presenters: Saud Amer, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Curt Barrett, Consultant; Doug Bellomo, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA); Catherine Borretti, Meteo France; Edward Clark, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service Of�ce; Luigi D’Angelo, Italian Civil Protection Department; Stefanie Dannenmann-Di Palma, United Nations Of�ce for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Europe; Anatol Gobjila, World Bank; Maryam Golnaraghi, World Meteorological Organization (WMO); Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, World Bank; Laszlo Lovei, World Bank; Robert R. Mason Jr., U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Paola Pagliara, Italian Civil Protection Department; Elina Plesca, State Hydrometeorological Service, Moldova; Mary Power, WMO; Christel Rose, UNISDR; Michael Staudinger, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria; Bengt Tammelin, Independent Consultant for UNISDR; Wassila Thiaw, (NOAA); Vladimir Tsirkunov, World Bank; Xiaolan Wang, World Bank; Doekle Wielinga, World Bank; George Zedginidze, Deputy Minister of Environment Protection of Georgia. The �ndings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s), and Special thanks go to Vladimir Tsirkunov (GFDRR) for his guidance and advice which helped the do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop - team shape the agenda of this event. ment (the World Bank) and its af�liated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of workshop was co-organized with they represent. Thethe World Bank or the governments WMO and UNISDR. The team would like to express its appreciation for the productive cooperation with individuals from these institutions, in The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The particular Maryam Golnaraghi, WMO; Mary Power, WMO; and Stefanie Dannenmann-Di boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do Palma, UNISDR Europe. not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Table of Contents Introduction.............................................................................................................. v Part I. Best Practices in Hydro and Weather Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning for Extreme Events Lessons Learned from Seven Good Practices in Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems and Standards for Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services ............................. 2 Application of Climate Models in Improved Decision Support Services ............................ 9 Advances in Hydrologic Forecast and Flood Warning Services ......................................... 13 Preparedness and Response to Mitigate Flood Losses in the United States....................... 19 Technology of Stream Measurement, Monitoring and Visualization of Information .......... 21 The Experience of the French “Vigilance Map�: Complementing More Classical Early Warning Systems through Direct Communication with Populations ........................ 24 Meteo Alarm: European Multiservice Meteorological Awareness Project (EMMA project) ............................................................................................................. 27 Hydromet Monitoring and Warning in the Italian Civil Protection System ........................ 29 Part II. Strengthening of Weather and Climate Services in Client Countries Europe and Central Asia: Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Project (DRMAP) in Albania ...................................................................................................................... 34 Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project (DCRMP) in Moldova ............................. 36 Status of Hydromet Services in Georgia .......................................................................... 39 An Introduction to Hydrometeorological Services in Central Asia .................................... 43 Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP).................................... 47 Development of Hydromet Modernization Projects in the World Bank ECA Region ......... 49 Africa: Coordinated Approach for Stakeholder Involvement in Climate Outlook Simulation...................................................................................................................... 53 Closing Remarks ...................................................................................................... 57 < iv > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Natural hazards cannot be avoided, but timely, accurate prediction of hydro-climate extremes helps societies to prepare for and mitigate disasters and to reduce losses in infrastructure and productive activities. The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management < v > Introduction Laszlo Lovei, World Bank, Director, Sustainable hydrometeorological systems is critical for disaster risk Development Department, Europe and Central Asia mitigation, preparedness and response. Natural hazards cannot be avoided, but timely, accurate Governments and regional organizations engaged in prediction of hydro-climate extremes helps societies to providing comprehensive hydrometeorological services prepare for and mitigate disasters and to reduce losses are bolstering the ef�ciency of disaster risk manage- in infrastructure and productive activities. Early warning ment systems through the knowledge and experience systems and forecasts provide lead time, which togeth- they are acquiring. For example, many governments er with public awareness, education and preparedness, have made advances in the application of hydromet can allow people to act quickly in response to hazard technologies and data for better management of di- information, thereby increasing human safety and re- saster risk. The hydrometeorological services are also ducing the human and economic losses from natural instrumental to several other sectors, such as water disasters. To support governments in Eastern Europe resources, hydropower, agriculture, transport, urban and Central Asia to improve their early warning and development, health and others. forecasting capabilities, on March 12, 2012 the World To strengthen hydrometeorological (i.e. hydromet) ser- Bank, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), and the World Meteoro- vices in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the World logical Organization (WMO), came together to host a Bank and other organizations are providing support workshop—“The Role of Hydrometeorological Services to countries like Albania, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, in Disaster Risk Management.� This one-day workshop Poland, Russia, Tajikistan and Turkey. These collective focused on sharing best practices and experience in efforts are spurring global, regional and national initia- innovative and state-of-the-art hydrometeorological tives in which emergency management agencies are services and their use in disaster risk reduction mecha- sharing experiences and best practices across organi- nisms that can protect lives, livelihoods and assets. zations. In order to nurture and sustain this knowledge-sharing Regional Context trend, “The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Weather and climate hazards such as storms, heat Disaster Risk Management� brought together experi- waves, cold waves, floods and droughts cause more ence and expertise from European and Central Asian economic damage and loss of life than any other natu- countries, WMO, UNISDR, the World Bank, European ral disasters. As some studies indicate, climate change and U.S. institutions, as well as client countries. The could make such events even more severe. European �rst part of the workshop focused on best practices in and Central Asian countries are among those suffering hydro and weather hazard monitoring and early warn- considerable losses from natural disasters. ing for extreme events. The second part focused on investments that are being undertaken by countries The importance of early warning systems in disaster with World Bank support to strengthen weather and risk reduction, especially mitigating flood losses, can- climate services for better disaster risk management. not be over emphasized—especially in the challenging atmosphere of climate change and the increasing oc- This report contains the workshop proceedings, and is currences of climate extremes. Early warning systems intended as a resource document for both practitioners coupled with response, mitigation, awareness and pre- and new comers to the �eld of hydrometeorological paredness are needed in many developing countries. services in disaster risk management. Speakers’ pre- Due to the current and projected impact of weather- sentations can be found at: http://www.gfdrr.org/gf- induced natural hazards, the effective functioning of drr/node/1083. The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management < 1 > Part I Best Practices in Hydro and Weather Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning for Extreme Events < 2 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Lessons Learned from Seven Good Practices in Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems and Standards for Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services Maryam Golnaraghi and Mary Power, associated with such hazards, requiring multi-sectoral risk World Meteorological Organization (WMO) management—a capacity lacking in many at-risk coun- tries. Science-based meteorological, hydrological and Socio-economic impacts of weather and climate- climate services are critical input for informed decision- related extremes are on the rise, with statistics showing making. According to a World Meteorological Organi- that extreme weather is increasingly impacting country zation 2006 survey to which 155 countries’ National economies. In the Caucuses and Central Asia, for ex- Meteorological and Hydrological Services responded:1 ample, the main economic sectors of many countries are directly impacted by meteorological, hydrological Droughts, flash and river floods, strong winds and se- and climate-related hazards such as heat waves, for- vere storms, tropical cyclones, storm surges, forest and est �res, droughts, floods, etc. According to the Fourth wild land �res, heat waves, landslides, sand and dust Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on storms, marine and aviation hazards, as well as rapid Climate Change (IPCC), the frequency and severity of melting of the glaciers and potential risks to quality these hazards are increasing because of climate vari- and quantity of water supply, are among the top hy- ability and climate change. drometeorological hazards of concern to members; The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) focuses disaster Nearly 70 percent of countries require new or re- risk-management strategies into three principal areas: vised DRR policies and legislation to clarify the role risk identi�cation, risk reduction and risk transfer. The of the NMHS; HFA stresses that successful disaster risk management Over 65 percent of NMHSs need modernization or should be supported by effective governance, strengthening of their core infrastructure for obser- legislation, legal frameworks and institutional capacities vation, telecommunications and operational fore- from the national to local levels. These capacities casting; should be supplemented by effective information and knowledge-sharing mechanisms among different Nearly 80 percent of NMHSs need guidelines, as stakeholders. For weather- and climate-related well as management and technical training; and hazards, this means that National Meteorological Over 80 percent of NMHSs need strengthening of and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) should be focused their strategic and operational partnerships with on a comprehensive end-to-end service delivery that various DRR stakeholders across various sectors and engages a multitude of stakeholders and agencies at 2 levels. the regional, national and local levels. 1 Need for Signi�cant Capacity Development WMO DRR Survey 2006: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/ natRegCap_en.html of NMHSs for Delivery of Meteorological, 2 Note: In terms of strengthening capacity, 80 percent of coun- Hydrological and Climate Services tries reported that they required (1) Tools, standards and tech- nical and management training; and (2) The strengthening or The changing characteristics of meteorological, hydrolog- building of multi-sectoral institutional partnerships and ser- ical and climate hazards and conditions combined with vice delivery standard operating procedures (quality manage- development decisions, are leading to increasing risks ment systems and standard operating procedures). Part I: Lessons Learned < 3 > World Meteorological Organization’s Role long term) and disaster risk �nancing including weath- in Disaster Risk Reduction er-indexed and catastrophe insurance. Disaster risk reduction is a priority for the World Me- WMO’s strategic goals in DRR are derived from the teorological Organization because the protection of Hyogo Framework for Action, pertaining to those high lives, property and livelihoods is at the core of the pri- priority areas that fall under the mandate of WMO orities of the WMO Members and the National Meteo- and NMHSs. WMO takes a cross-cutting approach to rological and Hydrological Services. Furthermore, the achieving its DRR objectives by: leveraging expertise, implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action by resources and capacities of bene�ciaries and other sup- national governments is leading to changes in national porting members, WMO technical programs and expert DRR policies and legal and institutional frameworks, networks, WMO global and regional operational cen- with implications for the role, responsibilities and new ters and other U.N. international and regional partners. working arrangements for the NMHS. These changes The WMO DRR two-tier work plan (hereafter referred to provide opportunities such as increased recognition of as the DRR Work Plan) links, (i) Development of guide- the NMHSs by their governments and stakeholders, lines, standards and training modules for DRR thematic which could result in strengthened partnerships and increased resources. However, NMHSs face new chal- topics based on documentation and synthesis of good lenges and liabilities related to the provision of prod- practices; and (ii) Coordinated DRR and climate adap- ucts and services to larger and more diverse groups of tation national/regional capacity development projects, DRR stakeholders (e.g. government authorities, public to strengthen hydrometeorological capabilities. WMO and private sectors, non-governmental organizations uses this two-tiered approach to the development of (NGOs), general public and media, etc.) who have di- meteorological, hydrological and climate services capac- rect responsibilities for DRR decision-making to sup- ities to support DRR and adaptation decision-making at port risk assessment, sectoral planning (medium and the national, regional and global levels. < 4 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Comprehensive End-to-end Service Delivery Ensure that core operational capacities (e.g., observ- ing networks, operational forecasting systems, tele- The potential relationships and exchange of informa- communications systems, data-management systems, tion and knowledge involved in a comprehensive end- human resources, etc.) are built upon the principles of to-end service delivery are illustrated above. This �gure quality management systems (QMS) to support prod- shows a comprehensive service-delivery approach for uct and service development and delivery; National Meteorological Services to provide products and services to a variety of DRR users. Establish partnership agreements with other national technical agencies (e.g. hydrological services, ocean Through this approach, WMO aims to assist NMHSs to: services, etc.) as well as global and regional special- Engage as relevant stakeholders in the national DRR ized centers (e.g. WMO Global Producing Centres and adaptation governance and institutional frame- (GPC), Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres works; (RSMCs), Regional Climate Centres (RCC), UNESCO- IOC Regional Tsunami Watch Centers, etc.); Identify, prioritize, establish partnerships and service-delivery agreements with the national DRR Engage in regional and global efforts for develop- user community (users) and develop mechanisms for ment of risk information for large-scale and trans- engagement with the users for identi�cation of re- boundary hazards, through strengthened regional quirements, delivery of products and services and for and global cooperation, information sharing, and obtaining on-going feedback; engagement in regional DRR platforms and Region- al Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), etc.; Develop and deliver core and specialized products Use principles of quality management to deliver data and services for DRR decision support (e.g. hazard/ and forecasts, products and services that meet quality risk analysis, multi-hazard early warning systems control standards—for example ISO-9000 standards. (MHEWS), sectoral risk management and disaster risk �nancing and risk transfer) in a cost-effective, As a result of this two-tiered approach to knowledge systematic and sustainable manner; and capacity development, WMO and its partners are Part I: Lessons Learned < 5 > engaged in producing a variety of resources. Together Early Warning Systems Require with the U.N. Development Group, the World Bank, Coordination across Many Levels and and decision-makers from disaster management Agencies: reflected in national to local agencies and various economic sectors, WMO and disaster risk reduction plans, legislation partner countries are developing good practices in and coordination mechanisms multi-hazard early warning systems and knowledge Early warning systems involve four elements, which products and guidelines aimed at strengthening end- need to be supported by governance, coordination to-end service delivery pertaining to the provision of mechanisms from national to local levels, and by appro- meteorological, hydrological and climate services to priate infrastructure. These four elements include: (a) support risk assessment, sectoral risk management (e.g., Observing, detecting and developing hazard forecasts land zoning, infrastructure planning, etc.) and disaster and warnings; (b) Assessing the potential risks and in- risk �nancing. WMO is also working with disaster tegrating risk information in the warning messages; (c) risk management (DRM) agencies, agriculture, water, Rapidly and reliably distributing understandable warn- energy, health ministries and other government sectors ings to authorities, risk managers and the population to establish policy forums where all potential partners at risk; and (d) Emergency preparedness and response and NMHSs can collaborate and discuss climate and to warnings at all relevant levels to minimize the poten- weather information needs to support decision-making. tial impacts. These need to be coordinated across many agencies at national to community levels for the system to work. See the components of an effective early warn- ing system (EWS) below. Failure in one component or < 6 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management lack of coordination across the many agencies can lead across national to local levels and the system is to the failure of the whole system. designed and implemented accounting for long- term sustainability factors; WMO has recently published a book, titled “Institutional Partnerships in Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems: 5. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability information A Compilation of Seven National Good Practices and is used to carry out risk assessments at different Guiding Principles�, documenting different countries’ levels, as critical input into emergency planning good practices and experience in developing their early and development of warning messages; warning systems EWS3. A detailed synthesis of these 6. Warning messages are, (i) Clear, consistent and good practices has revealed 10 principles common to include risk information; (ii) Designed with con- all, irrespective of the political, social and institutional sideration for linking threat levels to emergency setting in each country. This initiative supports devel- preparedness and response actions (e.g., using col- opment and strengthening of early warning systems or, flags, etc.) and understood by authorities and with systematic initiatives underway in a number of the population; and (iii) Issued from a single (or sub-regions. uni�ed), recognized and “authoritative� source; Successful early warning systems generally adhere to 7. Warning dissemination mechanisms are able to these following 10 principles: reach the authorities, other EWS stakeholders 1. There is a strong political recognition of the ben- and the population at risk in a timely and reliable e�ts of EWS reflected in harmonized national to fashion; local disaster risk management policies, planning, 8. Emergency response plans are developed with legislation and government budgeting; consideration for hazard/risk levels, characteris- 2. Effective EWS are built upon four components: tics of the exposed communities—e.g., urban, (i) Hazard detection, monitoring and forecast- rural, ethnic populations, tourists and particularly ing; (ii) Analyzing risks and incorporation of risk vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly information in emergency planning and warn- and the hospitalized—coordination mechanisms ings; (iii) Disseminating timely and “authorita- and various EWS stakeholders; tive� warnings with clarity on the responsibilities and mandate for issuance of warnings; and, (iv) 9. Training on risk awareness, hazard recognition Community emergency planning and prepared- and related emergency-response actions are inte- ness and the ability to activate emergency plans grated in various formal and informal educational to prepare and respond, with coordination across programs and linked to regularly conducted drills agencies involved in EWS, at national to local and tests across the system to ensure operational levels; readiness; and 3. EWS stakeholders are identi�ed and their roles 10. Effective feedback and improvement mechanisms and responsibilities clearly de�ned and docu- are in place at all levels of EWS to provide system- mented within the national to local plans, legis- atic evaluation and ensure system improvement lation, directives, MOUs, etc., including those of over time. the technical agencies such as the National Me- teorological and Hydrological Services; National/Regional Capacity Development Projects within an Integrated Service- 4. EWS capacities are supported by adequate delivery Model resources (e.g., human, �nancial, equipment, etc.) To date a number of projects have been initiated by 3 Golnaraghi, M (ed.), “Institutional Partnerships in Multi-haz- WMO with a number of partners around the world. ard Early Warning Systems: A Compilation of Seven National Good Practices and Guiding Principles�, Springer Verlag Ber- The development of these projects is based on the fol- lin, Heidelberg 2012, ISBN: 978-3-642-25372-0, Pp243. lowing considerations: Part I: Lessons Learned < 7 > Government interest, engagement and commit- services as per requirements of target users; ment to DRR and climate adaptation; Regional: engagement and strengthening of Multi-stakeholder and multi-sectoral engagement RSMCc and RCCs and their cooperation with and development of strategic alliances (national, re- NMHSs; gional, global); Sustainability. Engagement of WMO members and various region- Overall expected outcomes of these projects include: al and technical mechanisms, as well as the WMO globally-coordinated operational network; Increased clarity of the role of NMHSs in the national DRR institutional framework (planning, coordina- Partner and donor engagement from an early stage; tion, etc.) and linkage to the users who have direct Leveraging existing projects and their outcomes; responsibility with decision-making under the na- tional DRR institutional frameworks; User-driven assessment of gaps, needs, prioritiza- tion and requirements; Increased coordination and cooperation at national and regional levels for provision of meteorological, National/regional development component: hydrological and climate information to the target- National: DRR policies, institutional roles, part- ed socio-economic sectors; nerships, capacity development; Increased utilization and demonstrated bene�ts of Regional: Strengthening of Regional Specialized meteorological, hydrological and climate knowl- Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) and Regional Cli- edge in the decision-making processes of govern- mate Centers (RCCs) and cooperation with NMHSs; ments and targeted socio-economic sectors. Integrated service delivery for development of The main thrusts of these projects are: meteorological, hydrological and climate services: Engagement of NMHSs in the national DRR plan- National: strengthening of NMHS, technical co- ning and institutional frameworks and reflection of operation and development of products and the roles of NMHSs with partners such as the U.N. < 8 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Development Programme (UNDP) and the U.N. Moving Hydrometeorological International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Development Forward (UNISDR); Moving the development of the hydrometeorologi- Identi�cation and prioritization of NMHS DRR users cal services agenda forward is not without dif�cul- and establishment of agreements as per national ty. The challenge is how to engage the NMHSs to DRR priorities and institutional frameworks; align themselves with the pulse of their respective government and its development priorities. Instead Assessment of DRR user needs and requirements for of being a technical push of information, the NMHSs meteorological, hydrological and climate products should proactively engage the end-users to ensure that and services; they get relevant information for their decision-mak- Development of relevant partnership agreements ing. Many government infrastructures could bene�t and alliances (national, regional, global); from strengthened cooperation and participation from NMHSs to incorporate science-based information into Modernization and/or strengthening of core capaci- their decision-making. Encouraging government sec- ties (e.g., observing network, operational forecast- tors to work together (for example, to share data for ing systems, telecom, etc.) of NMHSs (with partners mutual bene�t) is fundamentally needed, especially to such as the World Bank); address multi-sectoral, multi-level, multi-hazard deci- sion scenarios confronting the governments for better Development of products and services, underpinned management of their disaster risks. by quality management system (QMS) principles: The development and strengthening of technical agen- Severe weather and marine services: Increased cies such as the NMHS has to be considered an investment access to forecasting tools and severe weather towards development4. The role of these agencies with warning services and utilization of related prod- respect to provision of meteorological, hydrological and ucts by users; climate-hazard information to support risk assessment, Hydrological services: Increased access to nation- early warning systems, medium- and long-term sectoral al and regional flood-management information risk management and risk �nancing such as weather in- systems; dexed insurance should be recognized and reflected in the Climate services: Increased access to climate national development plans for DRR. Investments need to data, analysis tools and climate-forecast products be directed to strengthening core infrastructure for moni- and services. toring, forecasting and human resources of these agencies Data-management systems and data exchange: In- to meet their mandates and provide the critical information creased regional dialogue and agreements for ex- that is needed. WMO (in parallel) is endeavoring to estab- change of meteorological, hydrological and climate lish or strengthen regional meteorological and climate cen- data and regional products (space, radar, etc.) ters that support NMHSs through the provision of a variety of “guidance� products and tools. Strengthened cooperation with RCCs, RSMCs and Regional Drought Management Centers; WMO in partnership with the World Bank and other de- velopment partners is able to assist country NMHSs in In-country technical support and feedback; modernizing and strengthening hydrometeorological ser- vices and facilitating regional cooperation fundamental Phased implementation and evaluation and expansion. to the ability of countries to successfully and effectively manage their weather-, water- and climate-related risks. 4 This was also a recommendation of the recently published re- port by the World Bank and the UN, on “Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention� (2010). Part I: Application of Climate Models in Improved Decision Support Services < 9 > Application of Climate Models in Improved Decision Support Services Wassila Thiaw, National Oceanic and consider range from seasonal to multi-year. Climate Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outlooks are expressed in tercile probability forecasts of temperature and or precipitation for a given area and Many human threats could be better predicted if part- for three different categories for above, near-average nerships between the operational climate community and below average. So, for example, precipitation fore- and users of climate information could be strength- casts are expressed in terms of tilt in the odds to favor ened. The Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center either the above-average category, the near-average, or at the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric the below-average category in the next three months. Administration (NOAA) seeks to link the meteorologi- With outreach, partners will be able to understand the cal community with decision-makers across the globe, uncertainties in the long-range outlooks and factor this so that they understand uncertainties in forecasts and uncertainty into the decision-making process. Prepara- learn to manage them effectively. Linking climate sig- tory actions can also begin at long lead times when nals to weather and water impacts could have tremen- climate signals have been identi�ed. For instance, dous decision-support value for agriculture, health, emergency managers can prepare for flood/drought, water and many other sectors. hurricanes; health managers can preposition medical The Role of NOAA in Improved Decision supplies; water managers can better prepare for arid Support Services conditions. NOAA’s core capabilities include observing, monitoring and predicting climate and weather, which Decision support services can begin at the climate enable these sectors and others to respond and per- outlook scale. The timeframes that climate outlooks form better to climatic variability. < 10 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño-3.4 (DJF 97/98 to AMK 04) 100 90 80 Forecast Lead (in months) 70 60 CFS 50 CMP14 40 CCA CA 30 CONS MARKOV 20 Persistence 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Forecast Lead (in months) Climatic Models careful monitoring of the state of the global climate so that rapid changes in the climate system can be taken Climate models are getting increasingly skillful. There into account in preparatory actions. are several climate-prediction models that can be used to predict for temperature and precipitation anomalies and can bolster decision-support services. One model Skill in Seasonal Surface Temperature (SST) is the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Anomaly Predictions (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS). The most predict- The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) (time scale able climate signal is the El Niño Southern Oscillation roughly 2-3 weeks) is another climate signal that is (ENSO), which has a major impact on the climate of extremely useful for predicting extreme events such many parts of the world, especially in the tropics. Predic- as hurricanes and torrential rains at lead times of one tion skill of ENSO at one month lead in the NCEP CFS is to three weeks. It is a global-scale wave that occurs about 0.9 and surpasses the previous NCEP dynamical in the tropics but can also expand into the temperate model the CMP14 and all other statistical models (See latitudes. The MJO has alternating phases of increased �gure above). A better understanding and prediction rainfall and suppressed rainfall. the chart on the next of ENSO has also led to improved seasonal forecasts in page is an example of an MJO event. Predictions of the several regions. In the case of precipitation for example, MJO have tremendous value in enhancing predictions correlation between the observations and the forecasts of precipitation and temperature at shorter lead times. reach about 0.6 or even 0.7 at some locations, increas- ing the level of accuracy in the forecasts. Such high-skill The Arctic Oscillation (AO) or North Atlantic Oscillation forecasts can be used effectively in decision-making, (NAO) is a third example of a climate index that can be However, forecast skills tend to be lower as lead time used to predict precipitation and temperature patterns increases, such that a four-month lead forecast will be at shorter lead times between one and two weeks, es- less accurate than a one-month lead forecast. However, pecially in a temperate climate. The NAO index is such there are times when the climate signals are not strong that surface temperatures tend to be below normal and the forecast is weak or tilted toward near-average during the negative phase and above normal during conditions. Such information is still useful, but requires the positive phase of the NAO. Part I: Application of Climate Models in Improved Decision Support Services < 11 > The Madden Julian Oscillation Spring 2005 MJO Event 22 FEB 2005 Way Forward and in general 24 students (meteorologists) are trained each year. NOAA has established the following priority action ar- eas to strengthen decision-support services: CPC is also providing rainfall forecasts to monitor drought conditions in Africa and supports the WMO Develop capacity to respond to short-term climate Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project variability and extreme weather events; (SWFDP) to improve forecasts and early warnings of Track and share data on environmental conditions high-impact threatening weather. The recent Horn of related to climate variability and change; Africa drought was clearly predicted with a long lead Expand capacity for modeling and forecasting flood/ time which allowed early intervention of food and drought effects; emergency relief to the large population affected. Build on existing model production suites (e.g. Additionally, CPC is expanding decision-support services NOAA); to African countries by developing and improving the Provide high-gig resolution regional models and following products that directly threaten human safety: downscaling; Forecasts of persistent rainfall de�cits; Train an interdisciplinary work force knowledge- Forecasting high frequency rainfall events; able about climate signals that are linked to flood/ Extreme temperatures; drought impacts. Changes in humidity and pressure; To support these actions, the Climate Prediction Cen- ter (CPC) has launched a Residency Training Program. Winds. Funds obtained from both the United States Agency Finally, the goal is to expand the capacity of modeling for International Development (USAID) and the U.S. using high-resolution climate models that are down- State Department are used to train meteorologists from scaled to regional models. In order to achieve this, various African country NMSs. Each student is trained there will need to be a signi�cant increase in data in for four months for each desk (Africa, South America, regions such as Africa. Central America and the Caribbean and Indian Ocean) < 12 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Surface Temperature with CDAS – Negative CDAS – Positive NAO CFSR – Negative CFSR – Positive NAO Part I: Advances in Hydrologic Forecast and Flood Warning Services < 13 > Advances in Hydrologic Forecast and Flood Warning Services Edward Clark, NOAA National Weather Service Of�ce of Climate, Water and Weather Services Mission The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “NOAA’s NWS provides weather, hydrologic (NOAA) is helping the United States build a weather- and climate forecasts and warnings for the ready nation by providing forecasts and warnings for United States, its territories, adjacent waters the U.S. and its territories with emphasis on outreach and ocean areas, for the protection of life and to the public and increasing public awareness of haz- property and the enhancement of the national ards and risks. This mission is increasingly important, economy.� as population growth and economic development con- tinue to stress water supplies and increase vulnerability. NOAA Weather-ready Nation Objectives A changing-climate regime is also impacting the quan- Reduced loss of life, property and disruption tity and distribution of water supplies. Coastal com- from high-impact events; munities face unprecedented demands to manage Improved freshwater resource management; threatened water resources and fragile ecosystems, while other communities face escalating vulnerability Improved transportation ef�ciency and safety; and risk of being threatened by floods and droughts. Healthy people and communities due to In order to identify, analyze and respond to these risks, improved air and water quality services; NOAA has established forecasting centers through- A more productive and ef�cient economy out the U.S., with many in the Washington, D.C. through environmental information relevant to area, where NOAA has its headquarters. The Nation- key sectors of the U.S. economy services. al Weather Service (NWS) is the organization within NOAA with primary responsibility for forecasting and providing warnings to the public. The NWS produces locations on rivers, water supply forecasts for mountain- hydrologic forecast products and services—for flash ous areas that have snow, and support flash flood warn- floods, river floods and water supply/drought. ings. The WFOs operate 24 hours a day, seven days a As seen on the next page, the NWS is organized into six week and provide weather forecasts, flash flood watch- administrative regions, with 13 River Forecasting Cen- es and warnings, river forecasts and warning services ters (RFCs) and 120 Weather Forecast Of�ces (WFOs). delivered to users, local outreach and education, flood The RFCs provide river and flood forecasts for 4000 veri�cation and event-based decision warning. < 14 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management NWS Operational Infrastructure Hydrological Services Roles and and probabilistic) with extended service/hours during Responsibilities flood events; flash-flood guidance; and water-supply forecasts. The National Weather Service has several centers and components involved in providing hydrological services. Weather Forecast Of�ces (WFOs) are responsible for local monitoring and warning, and provide weather There are three National Center for Environment Pre- forecast and hazard warnings like flash-flood watches diction centers (NCEP) that provide national guidance and warnings and river forecasts and warnings. In ad- and analysis: dition, WFOs have a strong role in local outreach and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC); education (service hydrologist, hydro focal point or warnings-coordination meteorologist); flash-flood and Storm Prediction Center (SPC); river-flood veri�cation (local storm reports and storm Climate Prediction Center (CPC). data reports); event-based decision-support services with federal, tribal, state and local agencies; and web River Forecast Centers (RFCs) operate and manage a re- service delivery. gional hydrologic model. Their activities include: multi- sensor precipitation analyses; quantitative precipitation As depicted in the graphic (at the top of page 15) these forecast (QPF); hydrologic modeling at gauged points; three components of the NWS are essential for an ef- and routine multi-agency collaboration. Their outputs fective warning system. generally include: river forecast guidance (deterministic Part I: Advances in Hydrologic Forecast and Flood Warning Services < 15 > Additional details are provided below: NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) is a satellite data-collection and dissemination system operated by the National Weather Service (NWS). Its purpose is to provide state and federal governments, commercial users, media and private citizens with timely delivery of meteorological, hydrological, climatological and geophysical information. The vast majority of NWWS products are weather and hydrologic forecasts and warnings issued around the clock from 141 NWS of- �ces nationwide. NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (NWR) is a nation- Product Dissemination wide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous Disseminating forecast and hazard information is vital weather information directly from the nearest National to empowering people to respond. NOAA has several Weather Service of�ce. NWR broadcasts of�cial Weath- principal methods for disseminating its products, in- er Service warnings, watches, forecasts and other haz- cluding: ard information 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Internet (http://www.weather.gov/); The NOAAPORT broadcast system provides a one- way broadcast communication of NOAA environmen- NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards; tal data and information in near-real time to NOAA Emergency Managers Weather Information and external users. This broadcast is implemented by Network; a commercial provider of satellite communications uti- lizing the C-band. It’s primary purpose is to provide NOAA Weather Wire Service; internal communications within the National Weather NOAAPORT; Service and for providing forecasts, warnings and oth- er products to the mass media (newspapers, radio sta- Emergency Alert System (EAS); tions, TV, etc.), emergency management agencies and Broadcasts by local media partners. private weather services. The NOAAPORT satellite communications system is operated by GTE Corp., under contract to the NWS. The system uses satellite transmitting (i.e. “uplink�) equipment at NWS forecast of�ces throughout the continental U.S., Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Each uplink site transmits NWS-generated weather informa- tion products which are then re-broadcast via satellite to users. The Emergency Alert System (EAS) is a national public-warning system that requires broadcasters, cable television systems, wireless cable systems, satel- lite digital audio radio-service (SDARS) providers, and direct-broadcast satellite (DBS) providers to provide the communications capability to the U.S. President to address the American public during a national emer- gency. The system also may be used by state and local < 16 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management authorities to deliver important emergency informa- Flood Inundation Mapping Services tion, such as AMBER alerts (child abduction emergen- The Flood Inundation Mapping Services provided by cy) and weather information targeted to speci�c areas. NOAA in partnership with the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the United States Army Partnerships Promoting Public Safety Corps of Engineers, (USACE), the United States Geo- logical Survey (USGS), states and others have resulted For nearly three decades, the NWS has been using a in 66 flood inundation map libraries to date. The librar- closed system for hydrologic forecasting, which has ies include NWS flood-severity categories and regula- constrained incorporation of new science and technol- tory FEMA flood-frequency maps. ogy developed by our federal partners and by universi- ties. NWS is turning that around with the Science and The Flood Inundation Mapping Services:5 provide spa- Technology Community Hydrologic Prediction System tial extent and depth of flood waters; display inunda- (CHPS)—an open service-oriented (open modeling) tion maps for levels from minor flooding through flood architecture that facilitates the incorporation of new of record; better mitigate impacts of flooding and help tools and information, and makes it possible for the build more resilient communities. �rst time to establish interoperability with our federal The Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) partners. This new CHPS river and flood-forecasting is a probabilistic-modeling system being developed to system includes two-dimensional flood-mapping ca- support mitigation and planning efforts that enables pabilities so users can visualize flood impacts in their short-term to long-term ensemble (probabilistic) fore- community. An online interactive-map website shows casts. The probabilistic atmospheric-prediction models the extent and depth of flooding. Already, 666 inunda- are input to probabilistic hydrologic-prediction models. tion flood maps have been developed in the U.S. for Presently, NOAA is demonstrating components of short- flood-prone locations. term capability at six River Forecast Centers and will de- ploy additional prototypes over the next two years. The initial version of full capability is expected in 2014. Integrated Water Resource Science and Services (IWRSS) is an interagency initiative involving NOAA, USGS and USACE aimed at developing high-resolution water-resources models that are linked to decision- support tools. IWRSS will integrate information and streamline access; share technology, information, models, best practices; develop system interoperability and data synchronization; create a common operating picture; increase accuracy and timeliness of water in- formation; and provide new summit-to-sea high reso- lution water-resources information and forecasts. This includes tracking summit-to-sea hydrological flows. CHPS provides the foundation that will enable fu- ture science and technology enhancements. FEWS is Summit-to-sea Five-point Strategy the software system through which Integrated Water NOAA began making high-resolution summit-to-sea Resource Science and Services will foster broader col- water-resources products about eight years ago as laboration across multiple agencies. FEWS provides part of the National Operational Hydrological Remote standard system infrastructure, data formats, and Sensing Center’s (NOHRSC) national snow analyses adapter mechanisms to allow modules to “talk to� one another. 5 water.weather.gov/ahps/inundation.php Part I: Advances in Hydrologic Forecast and Flood Warning Services < 17 > pilot (one kilometer hourly resolution gridded snow- National Water Center pack information—www.nohrsc.noaa.gov). These NOAA is constructing the IWRSS National Water Center products provide users with comprehensive snowpack (NWC) at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa. This cen- information that can be interpreted at individual points ter will combine hydrologic forecasting operations and as well as over large regions. In the few short years research to �ll several critical gaps, including: providing since we initiated this product, interest has grown sub- new high-resolution forecasts of water-resource variables stantially. Today, these products receive over 30 million to help decision-makers better manage water; extending hits per month, and are used by a wide array of stake- river and flood forecasting to provide maps showing fore- holders. casted spatial extent and depth of flooding; integrating IWRSS will expand on this concept to include a com- water-resources information to provide one-stop shop- prehensive suite of water variables that span the past, ping for stakeholders (federal toolbox); and establishing present and future (predictions), at four times greater a common operating picture among agencies. The fa- resolution (500 meters). Through the IWRSS partner- cility will be 58,000 square feet, with full occupancy of ship, we’ll be working closely with the USGS on the 200 staff. The facility will include an operations center for National Water Census, which will focus on analyzing water analysis, forecasting and decision support; applied past water trends, while we focus on what will happen water resources research and development center; geo- in the future. Together, this information will be critical intelligence laboratory; and a distance-learning center. for helping communities understand risks and develop This facility will be unique in the world, providing a com- resilience to variations in water supplies (too much or bination of water-forecasting operations, water-resourc- too little), and develop agility to adapt to uncertainty es-support functions, and research and development to and change. help advance integrative and adaptive water-resources management. The facility will likely house an operations center to provide water-resources forecasts and situ- ational awareness of water issues across the country. It would be the IWRSS nerve center to help establish a common operating picture among federal water agen- cies and stakeholders, and would provide a single por- tal to enable one-stop shopping for water information. This is intended as a joint facility, with staff from NOAA as well as partner agencies to facilitate the integrative goals of IWRSS. Future Concepts of Service By 2020, NOAA hopes to have made several major ad- The �rst phase of IWRSS focuses on establishing sys- vances in emergency-management and water-resourc- tem interoperability and data synchronization that al- es services. Today, RFCs focus on river forecasts. In the lows common data access and use. As of March 2012, future, RFCs and the NOAA Water Center will focus on the IWRSS Memorandum of Understanding among the full spectrum of water-resources services. USGS, NOAA, and USACE is in place; groundbreaking The creation of the NOAA (Interagency) Water Center work is occurring on the National Water Center; the (NWC) will address several critical IWRSS objectives: National Flood Inundation Mapping Services Project is operational; and a system-interoperability and data- Unique facility combining water-resource forecast- synchronization demonstration has occurred. ing operations, national support and research and development; < 18 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Produce, in partnership with �eld of�ces, new high- Making advances in hydrological forecasting is not resolution forecasts of critical water-resource vari- without its challenges. Tensions exist between invest- ables to help decision-makers optimally manage our ing resources in improved modeling and data services increasingly limited water supply (e.g. snow-water versus effectively communicating risks and hazards to equivalent precipitation, stream flow, soil moisture, the public. For instance, responding to climate change evapotranspiration, snow-pack runoff, ground wa- and the changing patterns of hazards may require a ter, surface storage, water quality); greater focus on impact analysis and projections over historic occurrence. NOAA relies on data inputs from Extend, in partnership with �eld of�ces, river and USGS and the Army Corps of Engineers, which also flood forecasting (currently limited to selected points requires substantial interagency coordination and col- on rivers) to provide maps showing forecasted ex- laboration. In contrast, efforts to improve risk com- tent and depth of flooding and include uncertainty munication require working with social scientists to information—which can be easily used by partners/ understand how the public understands and responds stakeholders to show the risk of inundation of criti- to risk. This focus is made more pressing due to the cal infrastructure (e.g. evacuation routes, hospitals, burgeoning number of data sources and tools avail- shelters, etc.); able to people with proper dissemination and end-user Implement system interoperability and data syn- capacity building. chronization to enable a common operating picture Signi�cant improvements in the accuracy and lead within NOAA and among federal agencies for flood time of hydrologic forecasts is being realized because forecasting and integrated water-resource manage- of better science, improved technology and systems ment; applications, the introduction of visualization of fore- Integrate critical water-resources information (cur- casts through flood mapping and through the develop- rently scattered across multiple federal agencies) ment of integrated approaches to coordination among and provide one-stop shopping for stakeholders; federal water agencies and partners. Leverage multi-agency capabilities and establish a multi-agency proving ground to accelerate transi- tion of research to operations. Part I: Preparedness and Response to Mitigate Flood Losses in the United States < 19 > Preparedness and Response to Mitigate Flood Losses in the United States Doug Bellomo, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Emergency Management The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency Agency Mission (FEMA) supports U.S. citizens and �rst responders to manage natural hazards (preparedness, mitigation, Support our citizens and �rst response, recovery). Not only does FEMA help after a responders to ensure that as a nation disaster, but its mitigation programs are active through- we work together to build, sustain out the emergency-management cycle. and improve our capability to prepare Within FEMA, the Risk Analysis Division is responsible for, protect against, respond to, for: recover from and mitigate hazards. Flood-hazard mapping as part of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); Risk MAP is focused on combining these efforts in a Working with state, local and tribal governments to way that improves U.S. capability to manage flood risk develop mitigation plans; and begins to expand that capability to other threats and hazards. Investments in flood-hazard data de- Implementing the National Dam Safety Program; and veloped under the National Flood Insurance Program Maintaining a strong risk-assessment capability (NFIP) are leveraged to create a picture of flood risk at within the emergency-management community. a watershed level. That information is supplemented, where applicable, with dam-safety information. Dia- These efforts were uni�ed under a single initiative in logue about ways to manage that risk moving forward 2009 called Risk Mapping Assessment and Planning begins to draw people from the emergency-manage- (Risk MAP). ment community, land-use and other planners, as well as local decision-makers, engineers and scientists. The result—beyond updated flood-hazard information for the NFIP and improved state and local mitigation plans—is a more-informed public engaged in actively managing their flood risk moving forward. The Process and Desired Outcome Using resources provided by the federal govern- ment, and flood-risk data developed at a national scale, FEMA works with states to identify where Risk MAP projects make the most sense. Once areas of study are identi�ed, FEMA and its partners work with local- and regional-government organizations to better understand the flood risk-management capa- bility and data gaps. Flood risk is then quanti�ed in < 20 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management economic terms—such as expected annual flood Conclusion losses—using new or existing flood-hazard data. It’s In addition to a more informed public focused on re- important to provide understandable risk communi- ducing flood risk, FEMA is creating an environment cation at the local level. The 100-year flood-frequency where relationships among emergency managers, �rst concept is an example of how the public’s interpre- responders, preparedness professionals and local land- tation of this concept becomes a problem in identi- use planners can be forged and reinforced. fying the risk associated with flood magnitudes and frequencies. It is clear that the public does not under- Emergency management is more than good response stand the 100-year flood concept. and recovery. It includes working toward more disaster- resilient and sustainable communities. Improved resil- Concurrent with this process, scientists and engineers iency and sustainability are achieved through strong identify flood-risk mitigation opportunities. This infor- risk-management capabilities to include all stakeholders. mation is then presented to local decision-makers and the broader public as a way of facilitating dialogue As the graphic below depicts, the Risk MAP is working to aimed at increasing resilience by raising flood-risk build those capabilities as part of a broader emergency- awareness and promoting actions which lead to im- management discipline. The environment demonstrates proved flood-risk management capability or reduced how an effective risk-management framework could be risk moving forward. used to bridge the gap among these different yet inter- connected disciplines. When done effectively, everyone involved becomes better prepared to respond to and re- cover from the next disaster—regardless of its type. Part I: Technology of Stream Measurement, Monitoring and Visualization of Information < 21 > Technology of Stream Measurement, Monitoring and Visualization of Information Saud Amer and Robert R. Mason Jr., hydrographers measure flow (depth, width and veloc- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ity) when they visit streamgages (generally monthly). The hydrographer correlates a series of measured Flooding is the greatest disaster faced in the United flows with the concurrent stages to develop a “stage- States. Floods occur in all 50 states and are threats discharge rating�. River-flow records are computed by for all months of the year. Floods cause more fatali- adjusting the rating as necessary so that it is current ties than any other weather-related phenomenon, with with stream conditions and applying the stage record over half those fatalities occurring to people in vehicles to the rating. The problem is that ratings change be- caught in flash floods. cause streams change. Hence there is a need to con- tinually update the rating. In fact, the chief business USGS Streamgages and National Weather of the streamgage is to keep the rating current. That Service (NWS) Forecast Locations activity keeps USGS busy and is costly.6 Streamgages are operated for many purposes. One of the more important purposes is flood forecasting. Recent Developments in River-flow The USGS accounts for 97 percent of NWS river-fore- Management cast locations. Every six hours the NWS downloads The most important recent development in river-flow USGS water-level hydrographs for some 3,000 USGS measurement has been the development and minia- streamgages to calibrate their rainfall-runoff models. turization of hydroacoustic technologies. Previously, These models combine the National Weather Service streamflow measures (using sonar and radar) took 96 rainfall, temperature and soil-moisture forecasts to minutes; with acoustic technologies streamflow mea- forecast river FLOW. In order to turn the flow fore- surement can now take 18 minutes on average. cast into a forecast of river STAGE, they use the USGS stage-flow rating. Hydroacoustic instruments measure velocity based on the Doppler principle. That principal takes advantage A rating is developed by visiting the site to physically of the shift in frequency (pitch) of sound emitted by or measure the depth, width and velocity of the water at reflected from, a moving object. (One experiences the 25-30 locations across the stream. Streams are mea- Doppler principle when one notices the shifted pitch of sured every six weeks or so and during floods and a car horn as a car passes by.) Hydroacoustics are fast droughts. The flow measurement is plotted against the and accurate. They can be �tted onto boats and towed, concurrent river stage to create the rating. The problem or tethered from a bridge. They used to be limited to is that ratings change as channel conditions change. deep water. But now they can be used in shallow wa- When a channel scours or �lls, the cross-sectional ters. USGS is also �tting small, rugged acoustic-velocity area of the channel changes; when vegetation grows meters to wading roads for use in very shallow water. or dies off it changes the channel roughness. USGS flow measurements track those changes and allow us Here is a simple example of the impact that hydroacous- to shift the rating. Without USGS measurements the tics can have on streamflow measurement. In 1991, river-stage forecast would no longer be correct. before hydroacoustics were widely used, USGS needed Maintaining the rating is the operational focus of the 6 USGS streamgage data for 7800 streamgages and for NOAA USGS streamgage network. Streamgages monitor NWS stream-forecast points can be obtained from the Inter- stream stage (the height of the water), not flow. USGS net http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/ < 22 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management a staff of 10 to make the same number of flood mea- This type of information allows decision-makers to bet- surements that is now done with a staff of six. ter mitigate the impacts of flooding and build more resilient communities. Once the boundaries of the Before Acoustics (1991) With Acoustics (2003) flooded area are known, one can determine damages 52 measurements 62 measurements and assess needs: number of displaced people, dam- 10 days 10 days aged houses, etc. Staff of 11 Staff of 6 Average time – 96 min. Average time – 18 min. Not only are costs reduced, but so is computation time. USGS get the results sooner and shares them faster with those who need them. That means data is more timely and accurate. Approach to Inundation Mapping Flood-inundation mapping refers to mapping the area that is expected to be flooded. This is a marriage of hy- drology, hydraulics and a geographic information sys- tem (GIS), in which one models a range of flows and indexes a set of GIS libraries that show the inundated areas against a range of flood stages. The National Oce- anic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, A GIS Flood Tool for Mapping Extent and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) of Inundation are determining standards for flood-inundation map- Many developing country communities lack flood ping, which provides information on the spatial extent mapping to build scenarios for mitigation and re- and depth of flood waters in the vicinity of NWS river- sponse planning. USGS developed the GIS Flood Tool forecast locations. These agencies can therefore display (GFT) with support from the U.S. Agency for Interna- flood-inundation maps for various levels ranging from tional Development (USAID) and its Of�ce for Foreign minor flooding through the largest flood on record. Disaster Assistance. The United Nations Environmental By linking the forecasted-river stage to a fairly sophisticat- Program (UNEP) and Global Risk Identi�cation Program ed hydraulic model and a GIS, one can actually map the were also key partners, as was Riverside Technology area that the flood will inundate. In this case, the inundat- Inc, which supported the testing and training of the ed area is shown as the blue overlay. (See chart below.) technology. The GFT is used in countries to produce hydrographs based on the countries’ digital-elevation model and GIS physical features. The GFT produces flood-inundation patterns given ei- ther: (1) A speci�ed discharge (m3/s); or (2) A speci�ed stage (m). Translation of discharge to stage is done using the Manning equation for flow in an open channel. The GFT software is an ArcGIS-based tool written in the software programs Python and VBA. Using this software, the Manning Equation allows USGS to cre- ate a rating of flooding which allows them to map the extent of floods, even where they don’t have a Part I: Technology of Stream Measurement, Monitoring and Visualization of Information < 23 > gauging station. The software uses digital-elevation models to derive stream network, develop cross-sec- tional information, and provide a base for inundation mapping. Furthermore, the software can work with any digital-elevation model. For USGS workshops, they use hydrologically-conditioned Shuttle Radar Topogra- phy Mission data (using the model-HydroSHEDS-FM). “How can we equip Afghanistan with the tools to un- derstand and manage water?� This is the question that USAID, FEWS (The Famine Early Warning System) and other partners set out to collectively answer. The team had datasets from 1966–2001. Tools to mea- sure snow-depletion curves, snow accumulation and In addition to using this technology in Afghanistan, melting using the energy-balance models were devel- a practical display of the use of the snow-monitoring oped. The NWS Climate Prediction Center provided tools and models was demonstrated in Iraq when au- forecast-rainfall estimates to the model, which allowed thorities were considering releasing water to generate the team to look at water volume generated from electricity downstream or to store water for current snowmelt by basin and by province and also allows for use. The data from this product allowed for informed a six-day forecast. decision-making. Another useful product generated for Afghanistan is The USGS, in partnership with USAID and NOAA has the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). The successfully used the application of remote-sensing WRSI is a spatially-explicit decadal (in units of 10) prod- technology and various hydrologic and meteorological uct that uses climatological and satellite-based data as models to predict crop health and thus determine the an indicator of crop performance during a growing sea- potential development of food-security shortages in son. The WRSI assesses the current and end-of-season Afghanistan. crop condition. This model allows food security man- agers and decision-makers to assess the food security in the country months before the end of the season. < 24 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management The Experience of the French “Vigilance Map�: Complementing More Classical Early Warning Systems through Direct Communication with Populations Catherine Borretti, Meteo France alarms. Today, Meteo France is not only helping France, but its territories, as well as other countries like Algeria On December 26 and 27, 1999, two storms seriously and Canada. It is an improvement to focus on the most affected nearly all of France—highlighting a paradox. important events and to provide an accurate watch The storm that occurred on December 26 was very with fewer false alarms—this helps build a greater de- accurately forecast in terms of its trajectory and its gree of trust with the public. chronology, although wind speed had been slightly un- derestimated. The storm that occurred on December 27 was forecast much less accurately by the models. Principles The government of France was vehemently criticized Effective October 1, 2001, VIGILANCE replaced the by the public regarding the storm on December 26, but older BRAM and ALARM procedure which had been given a quite favorable response regarding the one on established in 1993. The goals of this new VIGILANCE December 27. early warning system were: (1) To better inform, thanks This paradox can largely be attributed to communica- to a simple and condensed message that focuses on tion with populations. The bulletins issued on Decem- dangerous-weather phenomena; (2) To improve the ber 26 largely went unnoticed for a variety of reasons: early warning; and (3) To broaden the dissemination of It was the Christmas vacation period; alerts the of�cial the information. This new alarm system is directed at emergency and civil defense services received were not governmental services, national, regional and depart- passed on to the general public in time; and perhaps mental administrative units, the media and the public foremost, the public is unable to associate the inten- at large. The following graphic shows how the emer- sity of predicted meteorological parameters with a risk gency management system in France works. level. For these reasons the forecast for the December 26 storm did not have a great impact on the general public. The public is not necessarily aware of the fact that a 130 kilometer per hour (80 miles per hour) wind, which is what had been announced, can take off roofs, knock down trees and cause considerable damage. For the storm of December 27, the emotion aroused by the earlier storm prompted exceptional vigilance and the public had the perception that it had been alerted and warned properly. These events highlighted the need for better vigilance and led to the creation of Meteo France whose goals are to better inform the public and have fewer false Part I: The Experience of the French “Vigilance Map� < 25 > Routine Working of Meteo France Orange: Be very vigilant; dangerous meteorological phenomena have been forecast; keep informed about VIGILANCE is not an alarm—it is a meteorological watch weather developments and directives broadcast by the intended to create a risk culture. With the users of the authorities; tool ranging from government services to civil protec- tion to media and the general public, the success of this Red: Absolute vigilance is required; dangerous and 10-year old initiative lies in its simplicity and the four- exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have color system—green, yellow, orange and red—based on been forecast; keep regularly informed about weath- the degree of risk. It is employed and well known across er developments and conform to directives or orders Europe. An interactive online map has inputs from a broadcast by the authorities meteorologist as well as a communications professional to elaborate on the effects on behavior. The system has When either orange or red vigilance reports are issued, also been growing—based on new challenges, picto- follow-up reports are produced approximately every graphs are being incrementally added. The goal is to three hours. These reports describe: the type of event, provide at least 12 hours of lead time for hazards. location and duration (time of start and �nish), present situation and development, description of the event The pictographs currently used are in the graphic be- (comparisons, frequency), possible consequences, rec- low, and include: violent winds, heavy precipitation ommendations on behavior and time of the next report. (leading to rain and flooding), thunderstorms, cold wave, heat wave, snow/sleet, flooding, storm surge Under normal circumstances, reports are produced and avalanches. twice a day and broadcast at 6:00 h and 16:00 h stan- dard time. Reports may be initiated outside these hours The four watch levels are de�ned as follows: if the risk signi�cantly increases or diminishes. In case Green: No particular vigilance is required; of an orange or red zone, a clear and concise write-up about the phenomenon is added close to the map and Yellow: Be attentive if practicing activities exposed to includes the main instructions on behavior, drawn up meteorological risk, for some phenomena have been by authorities. forecast, that are occasionally dangerous, although usual in the region (e.g. mistral wind, summer thunder- Dissemination of the messages is also vital to creating a storms); keep informed about weather developments; culture of risk awareness. In ‘input’ mode, information < 26 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management is routinely sent to national, regional and departmen- Conclusion tal services in charge of civil defense, roads, health, Communicating risk effectively to the public in a way environment and media. Information is disseminated that impacts people’s behavior continues to be one of through the www.meteofrance.com website, media the primary challenges facing Meteo France. During the outlets, mayors, and corporate and private users. violent European windstorm, Xynthia (February 2010) For crisis management, Meteo France’s territorial cen- an ef�cient red-vigilance alert was in effect; however ters play an essential role interfacing with their local at the time, Meteo France was in the process of fully partners: prefects (head of departments), rescue ser- including coastal risks in the vigilance map most French vices, customers and media. Customized maps and rely on for storm alerts. satellite imagery can be provided via a dedicated In- Meteo France sent out messages via media, and other ternet site, in response to the needs of the emergency outlets, but people did not notice them and were only services and crisis-management centers. prepared for the risk of strong winds. The storm surge hit the coast of France during high tide, which further Users’ Feedback aggravated the swells, and caused severe flooding. De- spite the messages sent by Meteo France, the public Meteo France has also put in place feedback mech- was not familiar with the potential impacts of storm- anisms such as an opinion poll and other market re- surge hazards and did not respond as appropriately search tools that indicate that TV (92 percent), radio as they could have. Several lives were lost, and Meteo and the Internet were the most common dissemination France learned that it still needed to work on educat- channels and that 90 percent of respondents know ing the public on the surge hazard. about the vigilance map. Most respondents also an- swer ‘sometimes’ or ‘every time’ to the question “Do Based on its experiences, Meteo France is taking a part- you follow the recommendations of the tool?� The nership approach to educating the public on risks in its feedback responses also point out that communication efforts to change individuals’ behavior. Meteo France to mayors and the general public requires further im- is focusing on the most dangerous events, conversion provement. of meteorological thresholds into risks, and having massive and parallel distribution. In addition, Meteo In addition to public opinion polls, Meteo France also France is focusing on making ongoing improvements conducts a series of other evaluations aimed at improv- to its system in order to adapt thresholds and reports ing its impact. For instance, it is evaluated and assessed to needs—such as developing storm surge warning cri- by a group of active partners that meet three times teria; it is also mindful of staying close to end users, a year. An inter-ministerial steering committee meets as this is what helps build trust with the public and once a year to decide on procedural developments. An change behaviors in the long run. annual evaluation is also co-authored by all the active partners that review the institutional communications tool on meteorological vigilance and provide feedback about procedure and presentation of statistical data. This 30-page evaluation is co-published by Meteo France, and the Ministry of Interior, Ecology and Trans- portation and Health. Part I: Meteo Alarm: European Multiservice Meteorological Awareness Project (EMMA project) < 27 > Meteo Alarm: European Multiservice Meteorological Awareness Project (EMMA project) Michael Staudinger, Central Institute for the national and regional levels. The European Multi- Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria service Meteorological Awareness Project (EMMA) was requested by the Network of European Meteorological Meteo Alarm is a procedure to provide European Services, EUMETNET to create a Meteo Alarm system weather-alert information on an online Internet plat- capable of providing pan-European alert information form. The system provides for a variety of weather on an online Internet platform. parameters in a format that is understandable (four colors) by all actors from the private and public sectors International cooperation is imperative for such an ini- and is harmonized as far as possible. The sources of tiative for a variety of reasons: information for this system are the National Meteoro- One-third of gross domestic product (GDP) is weath- logical and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). Information er sensitive; is relayed in both English as well as local languages. At least 1000 websites are linked to this initiative which has Early warning systems could mitigate around 60 had on average approximately four million hits per day; percent of damages; the system has achieved a high acceptance with public Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) is 10-30 percent institutions, civil protection and �rst responders at both < 28 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management of GDP (examples include: transport carriers across event of a real ‘red’ situation. A red alert is determined Europe; construction sites with foreign engineers by a crisis-decision team which is composed of a fore- and workers7; caster (team leader), a hydrologist (in cases of floods), a representative from the board of the institution, an The European Union (EU) receives 484 million tour- expert on climate, a media representative and a civil- ist arrivals per year which corresponds to 316 bil- protection representative. This team goes through a lion Euros per year in receipts. Travelers are more detailed ‘decision tree’ to de�ne a ‘red’ situation. The exposed to weather risks than EU citizens (example: chart below also shows speci�c parameters for when a sailing crew along Turkish coast with Swiss opera- red alert may be issued. tors and British clients); Larger catastrophes need �rst responders from out- Choosing alert levels out of different posibilities side the country, (longer response times require lon- Highest alert level (e.g. of ensembles) ger warning range). Level of Therefore, close trans-boundary cooperation across con�dence Green Yellow Orange Red the hierarchy of national services is critical. 0 – 5% 5 – 30% International Cooperation Supports a 30 – 60% Strong Common Alert Protocol (CAP) > 60% The Common Alert Protocol (CAP) is used to develop �ve-day warnings and integrate products of other ser- EMMA has de�nition thresholds, which are based on a vices such as flood warnings. wide range of factors such as climatology, vulnerability, seasonal variations, possible interaction of parameters, damage and meteorology parameters. ZAMG KMI Sweden Slovakia Other EMMA has demonstrated value when communicating weather-related threats to a population at risk. Expe- Meteoalarm rience will help determine how to best communicate Database information to get maximum usefulness and response. Signi�cant lead time must be balanced with accuracy and credibility. For a warning-dissemination system to CAP work ef�ciently users must trust the system and know exactly what behavior is appropriate for a given hazard Commercial Emergency threat and the needed response. MIC Services Services Managing Expectations As awareness about EMMA grows, and trans-bound- ary cooperation strengthens, it becomes increasingly important to avoid using ‘red’ alerts, unless serious danger is highly probable. Frequent or incorrect red- alert forecasts may cause the public to get used to red alerts, and therefore not react appropriately in the 7 United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Part I: Hydromet Monitoring and Warning in the Italian Civil Protection System < 29 > Hydromet Monitoring and Warning in the Italian Civil Protection System Luigi D’Angelo and Paola Pagliara, Italian Civil Protection Department Early Warning System—Institutional Arrangements The Italian early warning system is based on distrib- uted network. The geographical and administrative con�guration of the country implies that effects have to be evaluated in real time at the regional level. Re- gional centers for forecasting and surveillance of effects (“Centri Funzionali�) are responsible in their territory for the announcement, monitoring and surveillance of Since 1985, floods and landslides in Italy have im- risk scenarios in real time; declaration of the expected pacted about 700 people and caused over 25 billion severity levels; and providing warnings that activate op- Euros in damage. In 2004, the Italian Prime Minister erational responses in real time at different territorial established a national early warning system through levels. Twenty centers for forecasting and surveillance a directive requiring: “Operational guidelines for the were organized under the responsibility of the Regional organizational and functional handling of the national Civil Protection Authorities. These regional centers are and regional warning system on the hydro-geological coordinated by the national center located at the De- and hydraulic risk for the purposes of civil protection�. partment of Civil Protection in Rome. Over 2,500 rain This Prime Ministerial Directive ushered in new legis- and stream gauges throughout the country and hazard lation and planning for hydrogeological and hydraulic maps and risk maps with historical data are integrated risks, which clearly identi�ed all stakeholders involved with real-time information and shared at the local level. in the early warning system and de�ned their roles and responsibilities. The Italian government has also set up a network of Centers for Technology and Scienti�c Services (research centers, universities, spatial agency, etc.) that have the task of supporting Civil Protection Authorities by im- proving knowledge, models and tools useful for the < 30 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management evaluation of the risk scenarios. One of these centers is the National Meteorological Service, managed by the Italian Air Force, which cooperates and shares meteoro- logical models and data, but does not have the respon- sibility of issuing the alarms for civil-protection purposes. It is also important to underline that in Italy no real- time activities (hazard and risk mapping for urban planning and structural interventions for the mitiga- tion of hydraulic risk) are carried out by the Ministry of Environment and the River Basin Authorities. Case Studies Flash floods in Cinque Terre and Genoa During the �nal months of 2011, Italy faced severe flooding. On October 25, the tourist area of Cinque Terre experienced 500 millimeters of rain which fell in less than six hours—the average rainfall in Italy amounts to 1000 millimeters per year. The flash flood caused extensive damage and 10 casualties. The next month, on November 4, a red code, as well as warning messages, were issued in Genoa. This flood Building Interoperability through the Civil caused six casualties. Protection Information-sharing Platforms The Civil Protection Department has implemented a plat- form (DEWETRA) in which all the data needed are col- lected in real time. In this platform it is possible to share Flash Flood Oct. 25, 2011—Cinque Terre, Vara models and data coming from meteorological stations and Magra Basins (rain gauges, river gauges, etc.). It is also possible to vali- Impacts date pre-operative products coming from technological innovation. The Civil Protection Department and all the Many landslides Brugnato, Borghetto Vara, Pignone Monterosso, Vernazza; regions share this platform. Each region decides what to share with local levels. In this way, actors involved in 23 disrupted roads (250 kilometers); risk assessment speak the same language and share the Damage to houses, shops, businesses, essential same data in the same way all over the country. services such as power lines, gas pipes, telephone lines and public and private transport; Therefore, DEWETRA is not only a way to share data and model results, but is an operational platform to The highway was blocked for four days between share standing operating procedures (SOPs) and best La Spezia and Sestri Levante; practices. The hazard, exposure and vulnerability infor- The railway line was closed for four days; mation is utilized to develop risk assessments for EWS The arch of the Colombiera bridge collapsed. planning and implementation. Part I: Hydromet Monitoring and Warning in the Italian Civil Protection System < 31 > Brief messages disseminated by local radio and TV; Use of loud-speakers to spread messages; Intermittent sirens to let everybody know they are in the warning phase and continuous sirens for the alarm phase; Organizing citizen committees that can be informed and providing real-time information in terms of peo- ple’s needs and priorities. Italy continues to strengthen its early warning system, and is at the same time collaborating with nearby countries (like Albania) to strengthen regional early warning systems. For example, through Italian Centers These flash floods were the kind of event that occurs for Technology and Scienti�c Services, the International once every 200-500 years. Despite the warnings, the Center for Environmental Monitoring (CIMA), has es- population at risk did not think that the event would tablished a flood-forecasting and forest-�re modeling be very severe. system for the Albanian Institute of Geoscience, Envi- ronment, Water and Energy Institute, (IGEWE) which In both situations, the events were monitored in real provides forecasters with the capability to forecast the time with satellite data, and red codes were issued in spread of �res and the occurrence of floods. advance of the floods—warning citizens of the impend- ing dangers. The weather forecasts and the warnings The recently created (2004) early warning system in that were issued were good, but despite this many casu- Italy is now fully operational and utilizes an integrated alties occurred. Most of these casualties were caused by data approach. Regional centers for forecasting both erroneous behavior—people did not expect the event meteorological and hydrological risks have been estab- to have this magnitude and did not take the necessary lished. precautions. Therefore, it is imperative to inform local This system has worked well so far, giving good results communities in a proper way. The responsibility to pro- in terms of reducing the number of casualties and the vide local authorities (such as mayors) with the neces- amount of damage—at least for hydraulic events at a sary tools rests with the regional authorities. large scale, such as the ones related to the Italian larg- Local emergency plans will be effective only if people est catchments (e.g. Po River). Civil protection authori- understand the potential impacts of hazards in their ties, regions, the scienti�c community and all the actors area. Strategies for better communicating risk and im- involved are working to improve the Italian EWS—not proving information systems for both the warning and from a technical point of view for which a good level alarm phases of disasters include: of knowledge has already been reached—but on dis- seminating a better perception of risk to the popula- Warnings from the beginning of the alert phase, in- tion and on helping local authorities in constructing a cluding door to door visits by local bodies involved good response system at a municipality level. in civil-protection activities; and handing out a form with the procedures to follow during the warning and alarm phases; The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management < 33 > Part II Strengthening of Weather and Climate Services in Client Countries < 34 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Europe and Central Asia: Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Project (DRMAP) in Albania Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, World Bank, and DRMAP consists of four components: Curt Barrett, Consultant 1. Strengthening of disaster risk management and pre- Country Natural Hazard Context paredness—the focal point is the Ministry of Interior; The Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Project 2. Strengthening hydrometeorological services— (DRMAP) was launched in Albania about four years ago i. Parallel support for the Italian Civil Protection; with partners such as the United Nations International ii. Creating operational links with disaster man- Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), the World agement; Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Italian Civil iii. New disaster-management center connected Protection and others, as part of a regional disaster risk to the hydromet agency; mitigation and adaptation program for South Eastern iv. Issue forecasts and warnings of hazards to the European countries. Albania was the �rst country to General Directorate of Civil Emergencies; participate in this regional effort. It should be noted v. Forecasts and response—the model of an that this country has the highest economic risk from “end-to-end� multi-hazard forecasting system disasters with 86 percent of its territories prone to in Albania. hazards. Sixty-two percent of Albania’s disasters have 3. Development of building codes—the focal point is hydro-metrological origins. The intensity and frequen- the Ministry of Public Works; cy of climate-extreme triggered disasters is expected to grow in the next few years. In addition, Albania’s 4. Catastrophic risk insurance—the focal point is the economy is heavily dependent on weather-sensitive Ministry of Finance. sectors such as agriculture and energy. The project assessed the weak links of the end-to-end The objective of the project is to reduce Albania’s vul- system (below) and determined that one of the big- nerability to natural disasters and to limit human, eco- gest drawbacks in delivering forecasts and warnings nomic and �nancial losses due to disasters. Among was a lack of adequate data and hydrometeorological other purposes, the project is intended to strengthen modeling. Most of Albania’s systems are very outdat- the hydro-metrological capacity of the National Me- ed; however, the strength in the end-to-end system is teorological Service (Institute of Geophysical, Energy, response. In Shkodra in northern Albania, the popula- Water and the Environment) IGEWE. tion is very vulnerable to a high frequency of floods. Part II: Europe and Central Asia: Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Project (DRMAP) in Albania < 35 > The World Bank and partners are developing capacity Installation of a forest �re prediction model (RISI- to reduce flood losses from these events. CO); An operational server which was established in Component two of the project with the World Bank IGEWE and in three other local Civil Emergencies is the strengthening of hydrometeorological services. Departments’ sites (including Shkodra) so that This component focuses on establishing a foundation that the emergency management could receive of credible services that can be built on in the future. daily bulletins of forecasted �re hazards; The essential elements of the component are: Application of a probabilistic flood-forecast 40 automated observing stations; model (PROOFS) for three rivers in the Shkodra Data rescue—digitization of the majority of paper Region. data which is in a delicate state; Establishment of a meteorological work station. This The challenges ahead: work station will meet the communications require- 1. Institutional set-up of hydromet services in Alba- ments of IGEWE to receive data and global model- nia—IGEWE is located at a university and it is very dif- ing products and allow IGEWE to transmit data to �cult to assume an operational role in an academic bene�t regional needs and to meet WMO standards; environment; Establishing a website to serve users—this is a criti- 2. Insuf�cient number of hydrologists; cally important activity as data and forecast products will be posted on the Internet to meet user needs; 3. Cooperation with military and aviation are needed Training and capacity building are key activities that as these sectors have their own hydromet services; are needed for the meteorological and hydrologi- 4. Building technical and human capacity; cal workforce to receive training on best practices in operations; 5. Costs of maintaining and operating the operational infrastructure may be a challenge. The Italian Civil Protection Department is a partner with the Albanian Government and the World Bank and as part of the project framework it supported: < 36 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project (DCRMP) in Moldova Anatol Gobjila, World Bank, and Elina Plesca, through the integration of project activities in the region State Hydrometeorological Service, Moldova that focus on hazard monitoring and warning, disaster risk reduction, and climate adaptation. The project is �- nanced through US$10 million from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) funds and US$100,000 from the Global Facility for Disaster Red- uction and Recovery (GFDRR). Speci�cally, the development objective of DCRMP is to strengthen the State Hydrometeorological Service’s ability to forecast severe weather and improve Mol- dova’s capacity to prepare for and respond to natural disasters. These project-development objectives will be achieved through strengthened capacities to: Monitor weather and issue early warnings of weath- er-related hazards by providing timely and accurate hydrometeorological forecasts and services; Moldova is a small land-locked country in a temperate Manage and coordinate responses to natural and climate zone with some sub-arid areas in the south of man-made disasters; and the country. Agriculture and food production are key Help farmers, be aware of, and adapt to natural sectors for employment and exports. Both sectors are hazards and climate variability. highly vulnerable to natural disasters, including floods, droughts and earthquakes, heightening the country’s The project has four components. economic vulnerability. Component A seeks to strengthen the State Hydro- Climate variability is likely to increase the frequency Meteorological Service’s severe-weather forecasting and intensity of natural disasters as evidenced by, most capacity. For example, one activity of the project fo- recently, the catastrophic disasters associated with the cuses on developing an end-to-end multi-hazard early 2007 drought and devastating 2008 and 2010 floods. warning system. End-to-end refers to establishing a To address these challenges, the government of Mol- forecast and warning system that links data via com- dova and the World Bank have launched the Disaster munications to the forecasting center which links to and Climate Risk Management Project (DCRMP). users so that when the forecast center issues warn- ings, they reach the person in the floodplain in time to take protective actions. Another activity is to improve Disaster and Climate Risk Management early warning/nowcasting capabilities. Nowcasting is a Project best-practices procedure of using the latest data, in- DCRMP aims to reduce disaster risks by building the formation and model products to issue high-impact capacity of the meteorological services as well as the short-fused weather warnings designed to save lives disaster management organization. DCRMP also strives from approaching severe weather and/or flash floods. to strengthen regional cooperation and coordination This is being accomplished by the acquisition of dual Part II: Disaster and Climate Risk Management Project (DCRMP) in Moldova < 37 > polarization Doppler radar technology for localized with mobile communication companies. Following the forecasts; installation of a flash flood modeling system; design and testing phases, the platform could be fully installation of a meteorological workstation; automa- rolled-out by MAFI in collaboration with the SHS and tion of the existing hydromet-observation system; de- mobile phone companies. This project component also velopment of plans for seasonal/climate forecasts; staff provides technical advisory services, including grant- training in the use of new equipment; and providing investment support to farmers, farmer groups and rural opportunities for exploring international experience in communities for piloting and testing activities aimed weather and climate service delivery. at increasing awareness about coping and adaptation techniques necessary to make agriculture more resil- Component B aims to improve disaster preparedness ient to adverse weather. and emergency response. This is being done through a feasibility study and design of an Emergency Com- Component D supports overall project management. mand Center (ECC), establishing an ECC, and building capacity of staff within the department for emergency Valuable Lessons services. DCRMP is still in its early phases of project implementa- When feasibility and design studies are complete, the tion. Nonetheless, results are already being achieved. project will support establishment of the ECC by �- Major procurement packages have been initiated— nancing the following: (i) Facility renovation and refur- Doppler radar procured; a feasibility study for the bishment works; (ii) ECC furniture and equipment; (iii) Emergency Command Center contracted; the mobile Information technology (IT) hardware; (iv) Emergency communications platform is under development; and information management software; and (v) Communi- the delivery of climate risk adaptation advisory services cations equipment. is under way. Additional procurement of automated Department of Emergency Services (DES) employees observing systems, linked with upgraded computer will staff the ECC on an as-needed basis, along with and processing software will result in improved fore- staff from other agencies, particularly during emergen- cast products for many agricultural and emergency- cies. The project will support capacity building for DES management users. A flash-flood forecasting system and other agencies by providing training in an emer- linked to radar will result in warnings to populations gency-management information system—particularly at flood risk before flooding occurs. Impact from the the operation of the IT decision-support system—for number one hazard to the country is expected to be an estimated 100 staff from 15 agencies and all re- signi�cantly reduced. gional and local DES units. To ensure sustainability and Even in these early stages, valuable lessons are already facilitate knowledge transfer, capacity building will be being learned. Capacity building in targeted entities designed as “train the trainers� so participants can should begin on day one; and, exposure to regional transfer knowledge to their colleagues. and international experience can be an extremely fa- Component C initiates activities for adaptation to cli- cilitative aspect of implementation mate risks in agriculture. These activities include: de- velopment of a just-in-time communications platform Regional Bene�ts for rapid dissemination of critical, localized weather information to a large number of farmers and rural Natural hazards cross borders and sectors, so man- communities, and adverse-weather adaptation advi- aging disaster risks, emergency preparedness and sory services. The design will focus on the informa- mitigation requires institutional coordination and tion flows of severe weather alerts originating from collaboration among neighboring countries. Col- the State Hydromet Service (SHS) to farmers via a con- laboration is necessary and bene�cial in weather tent provider associated with the Ministry of Agricul- forecasting and early warning systems, in pooling na- ture and Food Industry (MAFI), and in collaboration tional-risk hazards through insurance mechanisms, and < 38 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management in disaster preparedness and response. South Eastern The World Bank has supported projects to enhance European countries would be unlikely to cope with a weather forecasting in countries such as Poland, Russia major catastrophe without support from and coordi- and Turkey—building a body of knowledge and experi- nation among neighboring states. Successful regional ence. Ensuring suf�cient system integration to achieve cooperation rests entirely on building national capac- full functionality is key to successful weather forecast- ity to respond to disasters, thereby gaining suf�cient ing; hence, project activities to strengthen weather- capacity to support other countries during disasters. forecasting capacity will be clustered in a few contracts Therefore, project components are designed to reduce to ensure the inter-operability of SHS systems. Moldova’s risk and contribute to international and re- gional cooperation. Part II: Status of Hydromet Services in Georgia < 39 > Status of Hydromet Services in Georgia George Zedginidze, Deputy Minister of Environment Protection of Georgia Georgia experiences many extreme climate events in- cluding severe storms, floods, drought, avalanches, strong winds, hail and thunderstorms. Hazardous hy- drometeorological events between 1995-2010 have resulted in vast economic damage and loss of human life. During that period, a signi�cant increase in the fre- quency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters was also recorded in Georgia. The Hydrometeorological Department of the National Capital –Tbilisi Environment Agency of the Ministry of Environment is Population – 4,469,200 responsible for forecasting hydrometeorological haz- Location – South Caucasus ardous events and delivering warnings. Responsibilities Geographic Characteristics of the department include operation and maintenance of the hydrometeorological observation program, Total Area – 69,700 square kilometers (km2) preparation and dissemination of short and long-term Elevation – 5068 (Shkhara) weather forecasts and warnings, assessment of ava- 26,000 rivers lanches, floods, riverbed and other types of hydrome- 865 lakes teorological processes in the country. The department is also responsible for establishing frequency and zon- 786 glaciers with 556 km2 total area ing of the intensity of hydrometeorological processes Wide swamp area (225,000 hectares) for the country and using arti�cial means to influence 44 water reservoirs hydrometeorological events—avalanches and hail, risk Most rivers are 25 km long and half of the assessments, vulnerability assessments, participation in lake’s area is less than 0.1 km2 response planning and planning preventive measures. 75 percent of the rivers are formed in the western part of Georgia and belong to the Flood Vulnerability of Georgia Produced Black Sea Basin. Twenty-�ve percent of by the National Meteorological and the rivers are formed in the eastern part of Hydrological Services (NMHS) Georgia and belong to the Caspian Sea Basin. Prevention and mitigation of the negative consequences caused by natural hydrometeorological events training. The NMHS carried out both standard and spe- Prior to the 1990s, the NMHS of Georgia was under cialized observations, including: upper air, radar, acti- the authority of the USSR State Committee of Hy- nometrical, ozonometric, glaciological, water-balance, drometeorology. The service was managed central- agro-meteorological, aeronautical and marine hydro- ly, and provided with necessary �nancial, technical, meteorological observations. The hydrometeorologi- technological, methodological support as well as staff cal information gathered was centrally processed. < 40 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Now, the Hydrometeorological Department of the Na- Historical Evolution of Hydromet Services in tional Environmental Agency of the Ministry of Environ- Georgia ment Protection is the only national organization that implements forecasting of hydrometeorological events 1832 – Starting episodic meteorological and delivers timely warnings to decision-makers. observations; The NMHS is responsible for: 1844 – Establishing the Tbilisi magnetic- meteorological observatory, that becomes the Hydrometeorological observation over the territory basis of regular meteorological observations; of Georgia; 1850 – Start of glaciological observations; Preparation and dissemination of short- and long- 1883 – Start of agro-meteorological term weather forecasts, warnings on expected hy- observations; drometeorological hazardous events; 1905 – Start of hydrological observations; Processing of hydrometeorological data; preparing 1930 – Creation of Meteorological and and issuing different types of bulletins, reviews, ta- Hydrological Service; bles and notes; 1931 – Start of air meteorological Implementation of �eld identi�cation-assessment observations; works on snow avalanches, floods, riverbed and 1964 – Start of marine hydrometeorological other types of hydrometeorological processes in observations; Georgia. 1988 –Start of arti�cially-created avalanches; In the case of of hazardous events, participation in 1999-2004 - State Hydrometeorological the work of identifying the hazard/disaster-impact- Department of Georgia of the Ministry of ed areas, damage assessment, response planning Environment Protection and Natural Resources and planning of the relevant preventive measures; of Georgia Zoning of the territory of Georgia on the frequency 2004 – Present - Hydrometeorological and intensity of hydrometeorological processes, in- Department of the National Environmental cluding diverse hydrometeorological events. Agency within the Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia Part II: Status of Hydromet Services in Georgia < 41 > Arti�cial influence over hydrometeorological events and rehabilitation of the stations’ buildings, re-equip- such as hail, avalanches. ment of seven hydrological gauges with modern mea- suring devices, and equipping the agency with satellite Georgia NMHS has produced hazard-assessment Internet (WEB-SAT). More recently, USAID has helped studies for floods, hail, droughts, avalanches and the NMHS develop a website; has equipped the NMHS high winds. These illustrative maps depict regions of with a portable water discharge-measuring Doppler the country that are susceptible to various hazards device (2007) and helped install a water-resources dis- throughout the year. tribution simulation-model (Mike Basin, 2007). National and International Efforts International Bank for Reconstruction and Georgia has in the past received assistance from Development (World Bank). donors such as WMO and USAID to strengthen Beginning in 2006, assistance has been provided to hydrometeorological capabilities. To outline a few the NMHS in conducting an assessment of economical activities, for example: installation of a satellite receiving ef�ciency of hydrometeorological provision in Geor- station, purchase of a telecommunications system, gia. This was followed by the installation of the U.S.A. upgrading streamgages, obtaining a Doppler discharge weather-forecast model (WRF-EMS) for a limited area, measuring device and support for re-equipment of the installation of a German weather-forecast model (HRM) Tbilisi Meteorological Station. With the assistance of for a limited area (in 2007), and installation of a hydro- the World Bank, Georgia has conducted an assessment logical model (FEWS) for the Rioni River Basin in 2008. of the economic ef�ciency of hydrometeorological services, installed the NOAA mesoscale meteorological Government of Finland -forecast model, installed a German forecast model and installed a hydrological model (FEWS) for the Rioni The Government of Finland has also supported Geor- River Basin. Speci�c activities include: gia’s efforts to re-equip itself by providing for: the re- equipment of seven hydrometeorological gauges with WMO modern measuring means and 10 devices, as well as re-equipping the hydrometeorological department Cooperation with the World Meteorological Organiza- with a portable water-discharge measuring Doppler tion began in the 1990s. With WMO assistance, in 1998 device. Like USAID, Finland has also contributed to the the NMHS purchased and installed a satellite meteoro- NMHS’s website development. logical information-receiving system and a telecommu- nications system (MESSIR-COM). WMO also provided Government of Canada and the World Bank assistance with Y2K (Problem of 2000). In 2003, with the WMO’s support, Georgia purchased and installed an With the joint support of the government of Canada air meteorological information receiving system (SADIS). and the World Bank in 2008-2009, four hydrological More recently, in 2008, WMO provided support for re- gauges were re-equipped with modern automatic- equipping the Tbilisi Meteorological Station with mod- measuring devices and the hydrological forecasting ern measurement devices. WMO also provided training model was installed for the Rioni River Basin in 2009. for more than 20 specialists. Georgian State Budget USAID In addition to using donor funds to modernize its hy- The United States Agency for International Develop- dromet system, the government has also used the state ment (USAID) has also been a strong partner as Geor- budget. Activities �nanced through the state budget gia strengthens its hydromet services. In 2003, USAID include: purchase and installation of a telecommuni- assisted the NMHS with the re-equipment of two me- cations system (French) TRANSMET (2008); purchase teorological stations with modern measuring devices and installation of a modern telecommunications < 42 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management ESTABLISHED TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM System (French) for visualization of synoptic products Digitalization of paper-based hydrometeorological (SYNERGIE, 2008); and the purchase and installation data (the process is ongoing); of automatic meteorological stations (seven units) and Introduction of a geographic information system automatic meteorological gauges (15 units). (GIS) for hydrometeorological information. The state and international funds have helped Georgia achieve the following results: Challenges Thirty-seven automatic hydrometeorological ob- Georgia’s hydrometeorological system is in the process servation points have been installed—seven me- of being modernized, and still requires additional ac- teorological stations, 19 meteorological posts, 11 tions to achieve maximum effectiveness. There are hydrological stations; currently projects from the Czech Republic and Finland A tool was created to collect and disseminate data to strengthen and automate the hydrometeorological gathered by hydrometeorological observations at observation network as well as a project from USAID/ the national and international levels; OFDA (Of�ce of Foreign Disaster Assistance) to install a flash-flood guidance system. However, additional A tool was created to receive and visualize the syn- partnerships and initiatives will be necessary to en- optic products from the weather centers around the sure Georgia has an adequate quantity of the points world; of terrestrial observation, radar and atmosphere ver- Validation of short- and medium- range forecasts as tical-sensing systems, and high-resolution models for well as the warnings about hazardous hydrometeo- weather and hydrological forecasts. rological events; Part II: An Introduction to Hydro Meteorological Services in Central Asia < 43 > An Introduction to Hydrometeorological Services in Central Asia Bengt Tammelin, Independent Consultant for UNISDR The region of Central Asia and the Caucasus (CAC), cov- ering eight countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. The national hydrometeorological services (NHMSs) in the CAC countries lack the capacity to provide the range of services needed by disaster risk reduction (DRR) man- agement organizations and different socio-economic sectors to achieve economic development and the Mil- lennium Development Goals (MDGs). All eight CAC countries were republics of the former no longer functioned effectively due to lack of funds, Soviet Union. The operation of the HMSs was coordi- decreasing staff and antiquated equipment. nated by Roshydromet and scienti�cally guided by the Main Geophysical Observatory. All data was provided Central Asian and Caucasus Disaster annually to Moscow, where it was published. After Risk-management Initiative the collapse of the Soviet Union all the CAC HMSs be- came individual, national-level organizations, lacking CAC NHMSs are attempting to revive the observations regional cooperation. Gradually the existing network network, upgrade and modernize their equipment Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Kyrgystan Tajikistan Armenia Georgia Manned synoptic stations; 47 87 25 207 28 52 48 78 Automated weather stations 0 13 0 42 4 0 0 0 Manned sgro 38 1 5 185 31 28 0 2 Automated sgro 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 0 Manned climate station 4 18 NA 33 0 15 13 75 Automated climate station 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Manned rainfall 28 204 30 232 0 67 40 NA Automated rainfall 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA Marine/lake 0 15 34 4 15 0 Weather radar 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 Upper air sound. 1 1 (2) (2) 9 1 0 0 0 Lightning 0 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 Lightning detection system 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydrolocical stations NA NA 257 76 81 32 10 Satellite receivibg yes yes 4 yes NA yes via Uz yes Area 1000 km2 29 86.6 69.8 2,725 199 143 488 447 < 44 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management and trying to apply new technologies; however, this products produced by more advanced centers. How- is happening with little regional coordination. To ad- ever, they are not used in digital format (grid point dress these challenges, the Global Facility for Disaster data) and cannot be used for example to manufacture Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the World Bank, and automated weather forecast products for any site, ex- the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster cept in Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. Reduction (UNISDR) launched a Central Asian and The studies highlighted that the loss of regional coop- Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative eration that occurred following the dissolution of the (CAC DRMI), which aims to reduce the vulnerability of USSR has had far-ranging negative impacts. Based on CAC to the risk of disasters. CAC DRMI incorporates project �ndings, the main gaps in the capacity of the four focus areas: 1) Coordination of disaster mitiga- eight CAC NHMSs can be put within the following cat- tion, preparedness and response; 2) Financing of disas- ter losses; 3) Hydrometeorological forecasting; and 4) egories: Data sharing and early warning. Lack of an ambitious vision and viable strategy; In 2010, the project began with missions to Tajikistan, Sparse, deteriorating hydrological and meteorologi- Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, in cooperation with the cal observation networks; lack of remote-sensing World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which systems and unsatisfactory regional data sharing; produced a study that included a socio-economic analysis. Ms. Anahit Hovsepyan from the Armenian Weak communications systems for collection of NHMS also visited Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. data and dissemination of the products; Based on the mission reports, literature and Internet De�cient data management and numerical model- research, including World Bank country reports, the ing capacity; UNISDR report was produced. The report covered the eight countries of the CAC region. Low �nancing and poor cooperation with industry and end-users; In general the observation network of the CAC NHMSs has declined since 1991. Most of the stations are Staff skills and training not adequate to meet mod- equipped with obsolete instruments. The number of ern requirements; automatic stations is low, as is the number of quali�ed Lack of regional and international cooperation at communication specialists. Most of the climate data mid-management and expert levels; is in paper format, and needs to be converted to digi- tal formats. Regional and sub-regional data sharing is Antiquated organizational and management sys- limited. In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan the tems; data-communications systems are obsolete leading to Lack of English-language skills which limits the ca- big losses of data. In Tajikistan, alert-warning systems pability to use the Internet and participate/cooper- are non-operational due to lack of quali�ed staff and ate internationally. funding for maintenance. The CAC countries also have challenges when it Modernization of the CAC NHMSs comes to weather forecasting. In all of the countries the forecasting services are not consistently opera- Modernization of the CAC NHMSs is urgently required. tional. Of all the CAC countries only Georgia operates Modernization needs to be implemented in a sustain- a local-area model (LAM), with a spatial resolution of able way taking into account human, technical and 14 kilometers. Armenia is planning to implement a �nancial limitations of the NHMSs. Right now the high-resolution model (HRM) from Deutscher Wet- agencies are in a phase of seeking the best ways to terdienst (DWD), the German Meteorological Service revive their networks and to modernize capacity. The in the near future. Most of the CAC countries do regional goal is an integrated end-to-end observation have access to numerical weather-prediction (NWP) and production system as depicted on the next page. Part II: An Introduction to Hydro Meteorological Services in Central Asia < 45 > Goal: Integrated end-to-end observation and production system Real-time observations: (GTS) Stations (AWS) Visualisation Specialized Mulyi-hazard Quality control Editing products: warnings aviation, etc. Data base & data base server NWP data: Post processing: Customers: Systems (GTS) The core of the production system is data management The modernization plan contains the following compo- “First Step� modernization of technical facili- nents that are sequenced in phases intended to gradu- ties: For example communications and data man- ally build capabilities: agement, regional data exchange, use of numerical weather-prediction model data in digital format at Training program: For directors, mid-management a local scale, a digital analysis and production sys- (on �nance, international cooperation, manage- ment); communications and data-management tem for weather forecasts and services, calibration staff; experts and forecasters (on customer needs, and maintenance facilities, upgrading of the synop- modern tools, modern hydrometeorological fore- tic stations and automated weather stations (AWS), casting services, products); and technical staff; and a regional lightning-detection system; Establishing of a quality-management system: “Second Step� modernization of technical fa- This refers to the quality management system stan- cilities: For example weather radar in most critical dards of the ISO 9000:2000 and ISO 9000:2008 areas, upper air-sounding systems; series. These principles are used by the World Me- Local Area NWP modeling: Downscaling from teorological Organization as a framework to guide global models to local or mesoscale models in order NMHSs towards improved performance; to achieve higher-resolution forecasts and warnings; Engaging software experts to improve existing “Third Step� modernization: Focused on enhanc- products: An example would be to transition from ing the technical facilities. text-based warning products to visual-based warn- ing products such as flood-inundation maps show- The modernization plan must be carried out thought- ing inundation as well as infrastructure impacted fully and with a capacity-building focus. For exam- such as roads, buildings, etc; ple, governments and donors should not invest in < 46 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management technological solutions, without investing in training cannot be undertaken within current agency budgets. the staff that will be using the new technologies. By Tajikistan, for example, offers an illustration: In 2010, initially directing training at directors and mid-level ser- the Tajik Hydromet Agency had an annual budget of vices, those decision-makers will gain a better under- US$500,000, with which it paid 700 staff members. standing of the end users and their needs. Clearly it would be unrealistic to think of operating an upper-air-sounding station with this kind of budget. Building both regional and sub-regional capacity to share data is also a critical need. The technology cur- Weather radar is the most powerful tool for short-term rently in use is not suf�ciently advanced to enable easy weather forecasts and tracking of precipitation. The sharing of data and information, and the number of most signi�cant advantage of radar is the production quali�ed communications specialists that could help of high-resolution near-real-time regional composite address this problem is very low. pictures that depict movements of precipitation areas and thunderstorms. In terms of regional data exchange, countries need to move towards using the data, and not just the pictures Despite the high cost of improving capabilities, there and maps. Many global numerical weather-prediction are potential cost-saving measures. Regional coopera- models available are at high resolution, enabling coun- tion in radar, and lightning-detection systems, for ex- tries to use them to provide spatially detailed forecasts. ample, could save money. In principle, countries can utilize this information for Conclusion whatever location is requested by the customers. However, having radar available, as well as upper-air The CAC countries are a good example of why a re- sounding data, are also important elements for good gional approach to strengthening NHMSs is critical. forecasting. Regional cooperation will enhance the value of any investments that may be undertaken by donors and Soundings are essential for numerical weather-predic- governments alike. tion models, but they are expensive to operate and Part II: Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) < 47 > Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) Xiaolan Wang, World Bank 2. Strengthening hydromet services in Kyrgyz Republic (IDA US$6.0 million) to be implement- Central Asia Hydrometeorology ed by Kyrgyzhydromet. This component will help Modernization Project strengthen Kyrgyzhydromet to ensure that it has The Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization the infrastructure and capability to sustainably Project (CAHMP) has two primary goals: 1) Strengthen observe, forecast and deliver weather, water and the delivery of weather, water and climate services in climate services that meet the country’s identi�ed Central Asia; and 2) Increase cohesion among Central economic and social needs. Asia National Hydrometeorological Services by sharing 3. Strengthening hydromet services in Republic data, information and expertise to rebuild infrastruc- of Tajikistan (IDA US$6.0 million; Pilot Pro- ture and human capacity. Speci�cally, CAHMP intends gram for Climate Resilience, PPCR US$7.0 mil- to improve the accuracy and timeliness of hydromet lion) to be implemented by Tajikhydromet. This services in Central Asia, with particular focus on Kyrgyz component will help strengthen Tajikhydromet to Republic and Republic of Tajikistan. ensure that it has the infrastructure and capability The bene�ts of improving hydromet services in these to sustainably observe, forecast and deliver weath- countries include: reduced human vulnerability, re- er, water and climate services that meet the coun- duced risk of damage to property and the potential try’s identi�ed economic and social needs. for overall reduction of economic losses as a result of Project preparation began in September 2010, and natural disasters; and improved coordination and infor- was approved by the World Bank Board of Directors mation exchange among the NHMSs, as well as better in May 2011. All three components became effective regional cooperation in support of climate adaption by May 10, 2012. This project will strengthen capacity through generation of more reliable data and better and provide better service delivery; the ultimate ben- responding to the users’ needs. e�t will be to reduce economic losses and save lives caused by natural disasters. The project will create an Project Components opportunity for better regional coordination and infor- mation sharing, which can be replicated for the future CAHMP is composed of three components: disaster risk management (DRM) agenda in Central 1. Strengthening regional coordination and in- Asia and other regions. The primary risk is that the formation sharing (International Develop- project would require tremendous coordination and ment Association, IDA, US$8.7 million) to implementation support because it engages a regional be implemented by the Executive Committee of agency (EC-IFAS) and four countries with different lev- the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea els of capacities. (EC-IFAS). This component will ensure that each of the participating National Hydrometeorologi- Challenges and Opportunities cal Services can share, use, exchange and archive common hydromet data and information, and that From the beginning, the CAHMP project team was each agency has a comparable level of expertise straightforward about the potential risks and rewards in the production of information and delivery of of the project. Building capacity and sustaining op- hydromet services. erations are much more challenging than building < 48 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management infrastructure—especially since the project operates to 10 years, institutional reform will be necessary for in a region where �scal capacity is limited and there governments to accumulate the capacity needed to are many competing needs. Implementation will fo- sustain and further cultivate the capacities in which cus on building multi-agency partnerships, enhancing partners are currently investing. The participating service delivery through better communications and National Hydromet Services (NHMSs) in Central Asia exploration of different business models, and linking countries plan to build partnerships with WMO, leading hydromet services with early warning and disaster risk NHMSs from other regions and global forecasting reduction efforts. centers. In consideration of these needs, the World Bank ECA Region will be examining how national-level CAHMP is also laying the groundwork for future investments could combine with regional and global regional projects—the project team is proposing investments in hydromet and disaster risk reduction, that there be a follow up project. For at least �ve more generally. Part II: Development of Hydromet Modernization Projects in the World Bank ECA Region < 49 > Development of Hydromet Modernization Projects in the World Bank ECA Region Vladimir Tsirkunov, World Bank Value of Analytical Work Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Analytical work helps to identify the role of the hy- Project dromet sector in economic development and attract the attention of decision-makers, making it an impor- The World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia region (ECA) tant tool for mobilizing the resources and political will has been a leader in developing a systematic approach required to build NMHS capabilities. When ECA be- that takes into account the full circuit of hydromet cli- gan its research, there were no established approaches ents. To better target its work, ECA undertook a sur- to assessing the value of investing in hydromet, so vey of hydromet services in 19 countries and studied the team used simple techniques based on the com- the economic ef�ciency of hydromet modernization parison of expected reduction of losses due to better programs. Based on this research ECA is systematically forecasts with the costs of hydromet modernization undertaking hydromet modernization projects, many programs. In all cases expected bene�ts of proposed of which are now complete or near-complete in coun- NMHS modernization were 2-10 times greater than tries like Poland, Russia and Turkey, modernization costs. Reduction of losses is only a part Analytical results are informing the way ECA inter- of expected bene�ts (households, better business- acts with client governments. For instance, it found development opportunities were not accounted for that most World Bank clients in ECA are organized due to lack of data); therefore investing in strength- as integrated Meteorological and Hydrological Ser- ening NMHSs is more bene�cial than ECA’s economic vices (NMHSs). Some agencies are af�liated with the assessments seem to indicate.10 Ministries of Environment, while others are af�liated Results of ECA analytical work were summarized in a with agencies responsible for natural resources, emer- study on Weather and Climate Services in Europe and gencies, civil affairs, transport and urban affairs, and Central Asia: A regional review (2005-2007). This study academy of sciences. Few NMHSs are self-standing examined the NMHS capacity in 19 countries, and as- agencies. sessed the economic bene�ts from hydromet services NMHS budgets generally account for 0.01-0.05 per- in a subset of countries, including the economic im- cent of national gross domestic product, GDP.8 A pacts of effective weather warnings. The study also mixed-funding model is common. While basic NMHS included a review of regional cooperation opportuni- products are free, others are contracted on a cost-re- ties in two sub-regions and climate change adaptation covery basis. Revenues from services range from 1-3 proposals in two countries. The chart on the next page percent (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), to about 30-35 captures the economic-ef�ciency results for several of percent (Russia, Ukraine). In terms of staf�ng, there the proposed NMHS modernization programs. are about 19,000 NMHS employees in 18 ECA coun- tries, in addition to the over 36,000 staff in Russia’s hydromet service.9 10 Studies include: Russian Pilot Study on assessment of economic bene�ts of RosHydromet modernization (2004); Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia: A regional review (2005-2007); Joint Study of WB/ISDR/WMO on Strengthen- 8 source Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central ing Hydromet Services in South Eastern Europe (2006-2008); Asia: A regional review (2005-2007) Development of an Action Plan for Improving Weather and 9 source Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Climate Service Delivery in High-risk, Low-income Countries Asia: A regional review (2005-2007); in Central Asia (GFDRR, 2008-2009) < 50 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Main Results of Economic Ef�ciency of Proposed NMHS Modernization Programs Estimated cost of modernization program, Investment ef�ciency,% Investment ef�ciency, % $ million/(exceedance of (across 7 years), (across 7 years), Countries NMHS annual budget, times) benchmarking sector-speci�c assessment Albania 4.0 (9) 438 320-680 Armenia 5.3 (12) 210 1,070 Azerbaijan 6.0 (3.5) 430 1,440 Belarus 11.5 (4) 530 480-550 Georgia 6.0 (13) 260 1,050 Kazakhstan 14.9 (3.5) 540 – Serbia 4.4 (0.8) 880 690 Ukraine 45.3 310 410-1,080 Modernization of Central Asia Hydromet methods. Overall, there is a downward trend in quality Services and quantity of observations. The deterioration of NMHS capacity is due largely to the degradation of the observa- ECA continues to build upon the research and analysis tion networks. Many stations closed due to lack of funds, it has conducted to pursue the NMHS modernization and data from existing stations is unreliable. agenda. For example, through the study on “Improv- ing Weather and Climate Service Delivery in High-risk, Examples of NMHS Investment Programs Low-income Countries in Central Asia� (under the in ECA auspices of GFDRR), ECA completed an assessment of natural hazards and climate variability; evaluation Poland Emergency Flood Recovery Project of the current status of the NMHSs (hydromets) and (1997-2006) – US$62 million invested in assessment of their capacity; user-needs assessment NMHS modernization; with emphasis on disaster risk management and early Turkey Emergency Flood and Earthquake warnings, agriculture, water-resources management Recovery Project (1998-2005) – US$26 million and irrigation; assessment of the economic bene�ts of invested in NMHS modernization; potential NMHS modernization; and development of Russia Hydromet Modernization project recommendations and a prioritized plan of improve- (2005-2012): ment of weather and climate service delivery to na- tional users. Project (US$177 million) is approaching completion; The study found that many Central Asia countries are vulnerable to floods, mud flows, droughts, frost, ava- Hydromet II Project (US$141million) is lanches, hail and strong winds, which cause losses be- under preparation; tween 0.4 and 1.3 percent of GDP per annum, and, South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk that most of these losses are preventable. Better hy- Mitigation and Adaptation Program (2008 - dromet services could prevent between US$5.8 million present); and US$23.0 million in losses. Investments under implementation in Albania, Moldova. Hydromet (NMHS) Capacity in Central Asia Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project NMHS capacity to meet user and government needs is (2011- now)—Investments under preparation very limited. All facilities are in a poor state. Equipment in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan + regional activities. is obsolete and NMHSs lack access to modern forecasting Part II: Development of Hydromet Modernization Projects in the World Bank ECA Region < 51 > Kyrgyz Republic Republic of Tajikistan Turkmenistan Number, Number, Number, 2008 2008 2008 Component of observation (Number, % Reduction (Number, % Reduction (Number, % Reduction network 1985) since 1985 1985) since 1985 1985) since 1985 Meteorological stations 32 (83) 62 57 (73) 22 48 (100) 52 Hydrological stations and posts 76 (147) 48 81 (138) 41 32 (58) 45 Upper air 0 (3) 100 0 (4) 100 0 (6) 100 Meteorological radars 0 (1) 100 1 (4) 75 0 (1) 100 Agromet observation stations 31 (68) 55 20 (37) 46 48 In addition to a lack of technical capability, when it the process of ascertaining government commitment, comes to service delivery many NMHSs—with the ex- ECA generally explains to Ministries of Finance that ception of those with commercial divisions—are not proposed modernization should come with increased very client oriented and are often unaware of their cur- NMHS budget. ECA also makes an assessment of op- rent and potential clients’ needs. Consequently, NMHS erations and maintenance (O&M) costs as an obliga- commitment to modernization is often driven by IT or tory part of project design and supports only those technology developments, not by client needs. When investments which have a chance to be sustainable. the installation of new equipment is seen as the �nal Provision of better services is a key for future sustain- objective of the project, the sustainability of invest- ability of hydromet services. Consequently, service im- ment can become a major problem. provement should be a focus of modernization, and Modernizing NMHSs will likely require a range of ac- clients should be actively engaged throughout the tions, including: the renewal of observation networks; modernization process. Ensuring that better services building capacity to deliver services that users want; are developed may also require �nding the appropri- engaging those users in the modernization efforts; ate mix of private and public engagement, especially establishing a national climate service within Hydrom- since public-private partnerships could improve service et; integrating NMHS modernization into broader di- delivery. saster risk reduction and energy-water development frameworks; and supporting regional activities (e.g. Conclusion training, improvement of communications networks). The expected results of these modernization efforts are ECA experience in hydromet modernization has trig- (1) Capacity improvement and better service delivery; gered greater interest in this �eld of work at the World and (2) Reduction of economic losses and saved lives. Bank. As modernization projects are implemented, ECA should continue to show the implementation In the short time the World Bank has been involved progress including service delivery improvement, and in strengthening hydrometeorological services, there is better client satisfaction and sustainability. ECA’s ex- little evidence of signi�cant success yet in develop- periments with developing new business models ing countries. Rather, the ECA team has learned that (agency, PPP) should also stay at the forefront of the building the region’s hydrometeorological infrastruc- hydromet discussions at the World Bank. ture is less challenging than building institutional ca- pacity and ensuring sustainability. Consequently, the In part due to the efforts of the ECA region, the World sustainability of investments is the main challenge. To Bank is scaling up its support to NMHSs. Increasingly, address this challenge, ECA tries to test NMHS and the World Bank is playing an advisory role—convincing government commitment upfront, especially as mod- governments of the high societal and economic ernization is a big challenge for NMHSs. As part of signi�cance of weather, climate and hydrological < 52 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management information; making meteorological and hydrological Despite this momentum, modernizing NMHSs has the agencies the center of support; helping NMHSs to raise inherent challenges already mentioned. In addition, their pro�le within the government by using the results there are the generic problems of the public service of economic assessments/cost-bene�t analysis and in transition economies—low salary, lack of flexibility, analytical work; identifying priority investment needs high uncertainty; a lack of guidance on how to mod- and facilitating �nancial support; and recommending ernize NMHSs using limited resources in an optimal that modernization of NMHSs be a component within way; and how to plan national NMHS modernization larger projects in disaster reduction, water resources based on available and future globally available hy- management, agricultural support and public-health dromet products. improvement. The World Bank is also exploring creative Moving forward, there are �ve important focus areas use of new �nancial instruments of climate adaptation for ECA: (1) Working in regions with signi�cant chal- and climate investment funds for NMHS support (e.g. lenges in delivering forecast and warning services the Climate Investment Funds (CIF), the Green Fund). (Caucasus, Central Asia, Ukraine); (2) Ensuring sus- In addition, the World Bank has launched targeted tainability of project impacts; (3) Continuing to seize technical-support programs such as GFDRR’s Weather opportunities as they emerge; (4) Launching a Severe and Climate Information for Decision-support Systems Weather Forecast Demonstration Initiative in Central (WCIDS), and is actively building partnerships with Asia and possibly in Caucasus; and (5) Building part- WMO, leading NMHSs, global forecasting centers and nerships with WMO, leading NMHSs, global forecast- the private sector. ing centers and the private sector. Part II: Africa: Coordinated Approach for Stakeholder Involvement in Climate Outlook Simulation < 53 > Africa: Coordinated Approach for Stakeholder Involvement in Climate Outlook Simulation Doekle Wielinga, World Bank Centre Regional de Formation et d’Application en Agrométéorologie et Hydrologie Opérationnelle). Disaster risk management (DRM) is critical for Africa’s economic growth. Vulnerability in Africa is very high, coupled with low capacity to plan and invest in adapta- Climate Outlook Forums tion, as well as limited infrastructure. From 1970-2009 Target and disseminate forecasting information the number of people impacted by disasters drastically increased. Climate outlook forums in Africa provide real-time re- gional climate outlook products and target the next In 2011, at the peak of the drought, 14 million people rainy season and drought forecasting. Traditionally were affected in the Horn of Africa; the same number they are closely related to the agricultural sector. Re- of people are expected to experience the impacts of cently, they have also become the lead organizers for drought in the Sahel this year alone. regional climate centers; for example, in the Greater Apart from drought, African countries experience Horn of Africa, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Ap- floods, coastal erosion and cyclones. plication Center (ICPAC) is the regional climate center; for West Africa, the African Center for Meteorological Most African countries share rivers or lakes with one or Application for Development (ACMAD). more neighboring countries. In fact, 17 of 52 major in- ternational trans-boundary rivers or lakes are located in ACMAD also facilitates climate prediction for Southern Africa (e.g. Congo, Gambia, Niger, Nile, Senegal, Volta, Africa with the Southern African Development Com- Zambezi, Lake Chad, Lake Victoria). Flooding is a re- munity (SADC), and the Central Africa and the Indian gional phenomenon across the continent—West Africa Ocean region groups—which include the following experienced four consecutive years of floods. In 2010, predominantly Francophone countries: Burundi, Cam- 1.7 million people were affected by floods in Benin, eroon, Chad, Comoros, Congo, the Democratic Re- Burkina Faso, Chad, Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, and Togo. public of Congo, Gabon, Madagascar and Rwanda. The year before (2009), Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Despite the existence of these climate outlook forums, Senegal all experienced major floods. there is a missing link with users of climate information who don’t seem to communicate with each other. Institutional Challenges There are �ve regional economic commissions under West Africa: Regional Flood Simulation the African Union and 34 river-basin organizations and Exercise technical agencies; however, there is limited data shar- In 2011, a Regional Flood Simulation Exercise was con- ing among these organizations, due in part to consid- ducted in West Africa with the objective to: (1) As- erable language barriers. Seasonal climate forecasts sess mechanisms for hydromet information monitoring issued by national meteorological services are used and communication with national-level authorities; (2) to disseminate forecasting information; however, as Strengthen emergency and contingency planning; and many as 60 percent of DRM agencies in Africa have (3) Foster decision-making processes for early warn- never contacted these climate outlook organizations ing information. The exercise was developed with and over 70 percent of DRM agencies never contact- data from the 2010 floods in West Africa. The exercise ed AGRHYMET (regional hydrological organization, < 54 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management was carried out on June 22-23, 2011 at the Economic In addition to these speci�c recommendations, par- Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Head- ticipants provided general feedback. The feedback quarters in Abuja, Nigeria. Fifty-one representatives highlighted the need for more extensive use of scien- from 16 national structures, 22 representatives from ti�c products of hydrometeorological forecasts existing regional organizations and 17 representatives from in- within each of the three communities involved in flood ternational organizations convened for the exercise. early warning systems. Participants also indicated the importance of creating a platform for dialogue to en- The exercise was designed to test capacity and com- able the three communities to interact and strengthen munication. Scenarios allowed players to talk on neu- their collaboration at the national level. Finally, they tral ground by using �ctitious countries in West Africa also felt that increasing joint activities would facilitate with water-system and climate characteristics similar inter-institutional cooperation. to reality. The case study involved two geographic ar- eas: Gassama (English speaking) and Kurubani (French speaking). Details of each country were provided Towards a Programmatic Approach to guide the actions and decisions of participants. A programmatic approach for stakeholder involve- ACMAD/AGRHYMET products were adapted (based ment in regional forecasting and early warning should on real 2010 products), so that participants had ac- take into consideration that each sub-region in Africa cess to the seasonal forecast, monitoring bulletins and has a distinct disaster pro�le, and that there is limited flood warnings. capacity and readiness at regional levels. These differ- Based on the results of the Regional Flood Simulation ences would lead to different program implementation Exercise, several recommendations emerged: speeds. For ACMAD and AGHRYMET: Partners may want to consider using West Africa, where the flood simulation occurred, as a pilot region Need to better understand their users; for DRM and hydromet-related activities. Addition- Create more user-friendly products (content and ally, taking an ecosystem-based approach to interven- format); tions could ensure that countries are working together for speci�c water basins, rivers and lakes. With rapid Collaborate with the DRM community to develop urbanization, targeting cities as priority intervention more tools and expand the broadcasting targets; areas makes good sense. Given the current status of Coordinate to ensure consistent messages; regional and sub-regional cooperation, these activity lines should occur using a phased approach. Build national capacity to scale products at the na- tional level. Another key focus should continue to be on connect- ing science with policy and practice to improve fore- For national and regional partners: casting and risk reduction. A programmatic approach Make better use of existing information through for stakeholder involvement in regional forecasting data-sharing and user-adaptation; and early warning might therefore include: mobilizing relevant actors and integrating disaster risk reduction Improve interactions among the DRM and the hydro (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) within and meteorological communities; the institutional capacity of hydromet organizations; Strengthen regional and national forecasting ca- developing risk assessment capacities to identify pilot pacities; ecosystems and urban disaster hotspots; establishing a vulnerability monitoring framework; introducing DRR Increase involvement and support of regional actors, and CCA within regional political and economic devel- such as basin authorities; opment agendas; and developing common strategies. Part II: Africa: Coordinated Approach for Stakeholder Involvement in Climate Outlook Simulation < 55 > Conclusion There is also a need to provide support to regional ac- tors, and to use scienti�c products as much as possible Meteorological organizations need to better under- in joint activities and for fostering dialogue and the cre- stand their end users and devise an effective, us- ation of a community of practice. Ideally, a program- er-friendly way to disseminate their products. The matic approach should link academia and science, and interaction among hydrological, meteorological and decision-makers and practitioners. DRM should be strengthened, as well as regional and national forecasting capacities. Closing Remarks < 57 > Closing Remarks Stefanie Dannenmann-Di Palma, UNISDR member governments of the Intergovernmental Panel Europe on Climate Change (IPCC). More intense and longer droughts are observed in some regions, frequency of The United Nations Of�ce for Disaster Risk Reduc- hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions tion (UNISDR) for Europe is strongly engaged with the of the world, heavy precipitation will occur more often, World Bank in collaboration with other regional and and the wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase national partners in reducing vulnerability in disasters. while their number will likely remain constant or de- In 2008, the World Bank and UNISDR Europe launched crease. a program called South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Program (SEEDRMAP) Added to that picture is the fact that economic-loss under the auspices of the Global Facility for Disaster risk is continuing to increase—particularly in wealthier Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). One of the priority countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods areas is focused on hydrometeorological forecasting, in the OECD countries—which concentrate about 53 data sharing and early warning. This hydrometeoro- percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) logical workshop is part of this priority and set in the exposed per year—is about 170 percent more than in context of this initiative. 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita, meaning that the risk of losing Why is this workshop and the role of hydrometeo- wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster rological services in disaster risk management so im- than that wealth is being created. portant? Weather-related disasters count for 80-95 percent of losses and costs of disasters on average This does not mean that countries are not reducing per year. The Global Assessment Report of 2011 has their vulnerability—they are. But these improvements looked in detail at nationally-reported disaster losses in are not happening fast enough or deep enough to 21 countries. Since 1989, there were 63,667 schools compensate for increasing exposure. and 4,873 health facilities damaged or destroyed, As we have learned, in order to promote national and 73,000 kilometers of roads damaged, and 3,605 mu- regional economic development and reduce the risk nicipal water systems, 4,400 sewer systems and 6,980 of disasters caused by natural hazards in Europe and power installations damaged and destroyed. Of these the Central Asia and Caucasus countries, it is critical losses, 46 percent of the schools, 54 percent of the to enhance the technical and human NHMS resources health facilities, 80 percent of the roads and more than to ensure better operational monitoring, forecasting 90 percent of the water, sewer and power installations and warning. Furthermore, in the context of the in- were damaged or destroyed in frequently occurring ex- creasing risks, but also opportunities, associated with tensive disasters. climate variability and climate change, there needs In 2010, Europe saw the biggest increase in disaster to be enhanced investments in climate modeling and occurrence (+ 18.2 percent), compared to the decade’s forecasting, and analysis to support sectoral planning averages. In terms of economic damages, Europe ac- for different socio-economic sectors. counted for 14.3 percent of the global reported losses The future of each national hydrological and meteoro- in 2010 due to disasters—most of the damages were logical service (NHMS) lies in its ability to develop and due to climatological and hydrometeorological events. more effectively deliver hydrometeorological products The Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme and services that have a recognizable value to govern- Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adap- ment, to different socio-economic sectors and to envi- tation (SREX) was approved on November 11, 2011 by ronmental-protection efforts. < 58 > The Role of Hydrometeorological Services in Disaster Risk Management Proper production and use of climate and weather of the observation network, in comparison to what has data and information by disaster risk reduction man- been shown in the modernization plan for the South agement and different socio-economic sectors would European countries. The NHMSs in Central Asia have not only help to prevent natural hazards from becom- identi�ed the need for regional data sharing and ex- ing human and economic disasters, but also promote change, as well as other directions to move in regional mitigation of the impacts of hazards, and adaptation coordination. to climate change, and thus promote socio-economic In order to build a dependable and sustainable devel- development and achievement of the Millennium De- opment plan it is critical to introduce a reliable vision, velopment Goals (MDGs) by each country. and to plan an end-to-end data collection and service- Regional cooperation and data sharing among the production system based on identi�ed and recognized South Eastern Europe National Hydrometeorological end-user needs. The increasing need for better hydro- Services (SEE NHMSs) and among Caucasian and Cen- meteorological data and services by different sectors, tral Asian NHMSs will signi�cantly promote the quality together with intensive discussion of climate change and quantity of hydrometeorolgical services, and de- and natural hazards, which are threats to the commu- crease the impacts of natural hazards in each coun- nities, offers the NHMSs big opportunities to promote try. However, the Caucasian and Central Asian NHMSs their visibility and to garner national and international countries are very big, and it is dif�cult to achieve simi- support for �nancing their modernization. lar bene�t from regional cooperation in modernization Designer: Miki Fernandez, miki@ultradesigns.com Printed by Printing & Multimedia Services, World Bank Group The World Bank UNISDR, The United Nations Of�ce Disaster Risk Management, Urban and Water for Disaster Risk Reduction Sustainable Development Department UNISDR Europe Europe and Central Asia UN House The World Bank Group Rue Montoyer 14 1818 H Street, NW 1000 Brussels, Belgium Washington, DC 20433 USA Tel.: +32 (0)2 290 2588 Tel.: +1 202 473 1000 Fax: +32 (0)2 290 4950 www.worldbank.org/eca E-mail: isdr-europe@un.org www.unisdr.org/europe/ World Meteorological Organization Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 7bis, avenue de la Paix 1818 H Street, NW Case postale No. 2300 Washington, DC 20433, USA CH-1211 Geneva 2 Tel.: (202) 458-0640 Switzerland E-mail: drm@worldbank.org Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 8111 Fax: 202-522-3227 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 8181 www.gfdrr.org