The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) REPORT NO.: RES36435 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF BZ MARINE CONSERVATION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION APPROVED ON MARCH 3, 2015 TO BELIZE ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Regional Vice President: Axel van Trotsenburg Country Director: Tahseen Sayed Khan Senior Global Practice Director: Karin Erika Kemper Practice Manager/Manager: Valerie Hickey Task Team Leader: Sylvia Michele Diez The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CBWS Corozal Bay Wildlife Sanctuary ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management KAP Knowledge, Attitude and behavioral Practice KM Kilometers MCCAP Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation Project METT Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool MPA Marine Protected Area PDO Project Development Objective PSC Project Steering Committee SWCMR South Water Caye Marine Reserve TAC Technical Advisory Committee TAMR Turneffe Atoll Marine Reserve The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P131408 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 03-Mar-2015 31-Mar-2020 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT),Ministry of Belize Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry, the Environment and Sustainable Development Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the proposed Project is to implement priority ecosystem-based marine conservation and climate adaptation measures to strengthen the climate resilience of the Belize Barrier Reef System. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed TF-18449 03-Mar-2015 03-Jun-2015 15-Jul-2015 31-Mar-2020 5.53 3.55 1.98 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING The Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation Project (MCCAP) continues to move in the right direction and show positive results. There is strong country ownership of the project and effective oversight in place for the project activities. The Project Implementing Unit, the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) and Project Steering Committee (PSC) have been instrumental in moving project implementation forward. MCCAP has partnered with various stakeholders on the ground in the implementation of the activities. This partnership is one of the strengths of the project, which contributes to building local capacity and supporting the sustainability of the marine ecosystems. The Project has disbursed 63% of its total funds ($5.53 million), which represents a significant increase from 45% at the time of MTR. Status of project components contributing to PDO: The project has made some progress toward achieving the PDO, with the level of achievement varying between outcomes. Outcome 1 (Marine areas brought under biodiversity projection) is advanced and has already achieved its target of expanding and securing marine protected areas (MPAs) and marine replenishment zones. Outcome 2 (Coastline brought under biodiversity protection) faces some challenges as the baseline to measure adherence to improved management by coastal developments is not yet available. Outcome 3 (Direct project beneficiaries who adopted alternative livelihoods) is back on track after experiencing initial delays due to the long due diligence process of developing the alternative livelihood subproject proposals with business plans and safeguard documents. Outcome 4 (Change of attitude and/or behavior of targeted beneficiaries) is on track, with public awareness to increase knowledge on climate change impacts embraced by relevant partner institutions, complemented by a communication plan which is under implementation. The project is expected to end on time in March 2020 and in a satisfactory manner, having met its PDO objectives. A restructuring letter from the Government of Belize dated March 18, 2019 was submitted to the Bank requesting: 1) the reallocation of proceeds between disbursement categories; and 2) adjustment of indicators as per annex 1 of the restructuring letter. Against this backdrop, this restructuring paper is to seek the approval of the country director to introduce such changes (described below), which would constitute a Level II restructuring. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES Proposed changes will allow the grant recipient to (i) finalize ongoing project activities, (ii) execute remaining resources; and (iii) achieve the proposed targets and results. The Project restructuring does not entail changes to the Project Development Objectives (PDOs) or total Project costs. Furthermore, this restructuring fully complies with OP/BP 10.00 as: (a) the Project’s DO remain achievable; (b) the performance of the Recipient remains satisfactory; (c) the Bank and the Recipient agree on actions that will be undertaken by the recipient to The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) complete the Project; (d) the Project is not subject to suspension of disbursements; and (e) the Recipient does not have any outstanding audit reports nor there are audit reports which are not satisfactory to the Bank In particular, two types of changes are proposed as follows (and reflected accordingly in the Project Operational Manual): - Reallocation of grant proceeds: a reallocation of grant proceeds between disbursement categories is requested in order to reflect the evolving needs during the project implementation. The PIU has projected the expenses to the end of the project and proposes to reduce grant funds to livelihood sub- projects (disbursement category 2), reduce funds to operating costs (disbursement category 3) and increase funds for technical expenses (disbursement category 1). Due to a slow start in the implementation of the livelihood subprojects (component 2), and the limited remaining time for implementation, it is proposed that the number of subprojects is scaled down with the objective of focusing on those with the highest impact which can be delivered by the closing date (March 2020).Therefore, the proposed reallocation shifts allocated funds to activities where the needs are the largest, supporting the completion of priority activities in the three marine protected areas (MPA) for their effective management (component 1), and promotion of behavior change to minimize climate risks in those MPAs (component 3). Furthermore, this reallocation results in the need of minor redistribution of grant proceeds between components (as described above) to ensure alignment with the proposed disbursement reallocation. - Revision of results framework: the refinement of some indicators is proposed based on the results of baseline assessment conducted during the first two years of the project. The refinement also reflects actual development and accomplishment of project activities, as well as an effort to include appropriate and measurable results indicators that reflect intended project outcomes and impacts. The results framework revision and its justification for changes is provided in the Restructuring Letter and reflected in the table below. Revision of results framework: Project Indicators Proposed Changes Rationale Project Development Objective Indicators Coastline brought under biodiversity Revised to “Coastal region brought The proposed changes are to reflect the protection (KM) (measured by coastline under biodiversity protection (KM) updated monitoring data for the 3 under protection and no net loss of (measured by mangrove coverage) in 3 regions (not the entire coast). The agreed mangroves) planning regions”. three regions for monitoring are Caye Caulker, Belize Central, and South New target: 18,900 ha of mangrove Northern Belize. The target was changed coverage maintained to 18,900 ha brought under improved regulation or 95% of mangrove coverage maintained. The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) Direct Project Beneficiaries New target: 1,500 beneficiaries The proposed change in the end target (from 2,500 to 1,500) is to reflect the reality based on updated monitoring data. There are 1,231 fishers living in the MCCAP targeted communities who fish at SWCMR, CBWS, and TAMR. This totals an estimated 6,438 people in these households. Based on the number of alternative livelihoods subprojects and total number of fishers, the direct project beneficiaries was revised to 1,500 (includes beneficiaries of fishing households who are receiving skills training, and fishers). Change of attitude and/or behavior of Revised to “Change of knowledge Level of knowledge and behavior was targeted beneficiaries (%) and/or behavior of targeted measured at the beginning of the beneficiaries (%)” project, and will be measured at the end of project (KAP survey). The original New target: 50% change of knowledge target was 75%. Based on the baseline and/or behavior of target beneficiaries data collected during the KAP survey towards climate change 2016, it showed the following results: Level of positive behavior towards climate change; Low-54%; medium 30%, high 17%. Based on these results, a more realistic target is proposed (50%) Intermediate Results Indicators The target MPA are effectively managed as New baseline and target for the 3 Changed baseline and target of the 3 recorded by the Management Effectiveness MPAs based on new methodology: MPAs to reflect new methodology: Tracking Tool (METT) (Number) TAMR: 0.69; 0.80 Methodology based on Manual for the CBWS: 0.65; 0.80 Rapid Evaluation of Management SWCMR: 0.62; 0.80 Effectiveness in MPA's of Meso-America, Dec 2004. Tracking tool (METT) (Note 0-1-lowest to highest score) Coastal development adhering to the Revised to “Baseline for the monitoring No baseline data exists to assess coastal development guidelines set by the ICZM of adherence to ICZM Plan guidelines development adhering to the plan. established in 3 regions (in northern, development guidelines set by the ICZM central and southern Belize)” plan. Because of the limited time for project implementation, the project will New target: 3 regions with baseline collect baseline data in 3 of the 9 coastal planning regions in Belize by the end of the project. Alternative livelihoods subprojects New target: 10 subprojects The proposed change in the end target developed from 20 to 10 subprojects is based on the The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) observation made at mid-term evaluation. At the time of the evaluation, the project had not started any sub- project activities, as communities had not identified any suitable projects. Persons participating in training based on New target: 500 people The proposed change in target (from training needs assessment and % of 2000 to 500 people) reflects the reality trainees are women; (Number) based on the updated monitoring assessment. The target includes training obtained through subprojects and skills training. I. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Component 1. Improving the Component 1. Improving the Protection Regime of Marine and 2.00 Revised Protection Regime of Marine 2.50 Coastal Ecosystems and Coastal Ecosystems Component 2. Promotion of Component 2. Promotion of 2.45 Revised 2.10 Viable Alternative Livelihoods Viable Alternative Livelihoods Component 3. Raising Component 3. Raising Awareness and Building Local 0.56 Revised Awareness and Building Local 0.62 Capacity Capacity Component 4. Project Component 4. Project Management, Monitoring and 0.52 Revised Management, Monitoring and 0.31 Assessment Assessment TOTAL 5.53 5.53 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_REALLOCATION _TABLE REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed TF-18449-001 | Currency: USD The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: GO,CW,N-CS,CS,TRG, M&C Act exc P2 2,560,000.00 1,977,457.19 3,176,217.00 100.00 100 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: GO,CW,N-CS,CS,TRG for Part 2 2,450,000.00 850,520.61 2,038,412.00 100.00 100 iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: OPERATING COSTS 520,000.00 224,574.70 315,371.00 100.00 100 Total 5,530,000.00 3,052,552.50 5,530,000.00 . The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) . Results framework COUNTRY: Belize BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation Project Development Objectives(s) The objective of the proposed Project is to implement priority ecosystem-based marine conservation and climate adaptation measures to strengthen the climate resilience of the Belize Barrier Reef System. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Improvement of the coral reef protection regime Marine areas brought under biodiversity protection (ha) 248,810.00 287,088.00 248,810.00 386,612.00 386,612.00 386,612.00 386,612.00 (Hectare(Ha)) Replenishment Zones (no take) brought under 38,278.00 38,278.00 38,278.00 59,331.00 59,331.00 59,331.00 59,331.00 biodiversity protection (Hectare(Ha)) Coastal region brought under improved regulation (measured by mangrove 20,191.00 18,900.00 coverage) in 3 planning regions (Hectare(Ha)) Rationale: The proposed changes are to reflect the updated monitoring data for the 3 regions (not the entire coast). The agreed three regions for monitoring are Caye Action: This indicator has Caulker, Belize Central, and South Northern Belize. The target was changed to 18,900 ha brought under improved regulation or 95% of mangrove coverage been Revised maintained. The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Promotion of sustainable alternative livelihoods and income diversification Direct project beneficiaries 0.00 0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 (Number) Rationale: The proposed change in the end target (from 2,500 to 1,500) is to reflect the reality based on updated monitoring data. There are 1,231 fishers living in the Action: This indicator has MCCAP targeted communities who fish at SWCMR, CBWS, and TAMR. This totals an estimated 6,438 people in these households. Based on the number of been Revised alternative livelihoods subprojects and total number of fishers, the direct project beneficiaries was revised to 1,500 (includes beneficiaries of fishing households who are receiving skills training, and fishers). Female beneficiaries 0.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 30.00 (Percentage) Building local capacity and raising awareness about the health of the reef to climate resillience Change of knowledge and/or behavior of targeted 17.00 50.00 50.00 beneficiaries (%) (Percentage) Rationale: Level of knowledge and behavior was measured at the beginning of the project, and will be measured at the end of project (KAP survey). The original target was Action: This indicator has 75%. Based on the baseline data collected during the KAP survey 2016, it showed the following results: Level of positive behavior towards climate change; Low- been Revised 54%; medium 30%, high 17%. Based on these results, a more realistic target is proposed (50%) PDO Table SPACE The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Component 1. Improving the Protection Regime of Marine and Coastal Ecosystems 1.1 (a) The target MPA (TAMR) are effectively managed as recorded by 0.69 0.80 the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has Changed baseline and target of TAMR to reflect new methodology: been Revised Methodology based on Manual for the Rapid Evaluation of Management Effectiveness in MPA's of Meso-America, Dec 2004. 1.1 (b) The target MPA (CBWS) are effectively managed as recorded by 0.65 0.80 the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) (Number) Rationale: Changed baseline and target of CBWS to reflect new methodology: Action: This indicator Methodology based on Manual for the Rapid Evaluation of Management Effectiveness in MPA's of Meso-America, Dec 2004. MARFund Rapid evaluation of has been Revised management effectiveness- Corozal Bay Wildlife Sanctuary Belize (2015). Tracking tool (METT) (Note 0-1-lowest to highest score) 1.1 (c) The target MPA (SWCMR) are effectively 0.62 0.80 managed as recorded by The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 the Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) (Number) Rationale: Changed baseline and target of SWCMR to reflect new methodology: Action: This indicator Methodology based on Manual for the Rapid Evaluation of Management Effectiveness in MPA's of Meso-America, Dec 2004. MarFund Rapid evaluation of has been Revised management effectiveness- South Water Cary Marine Reserve, Belize (2015) Tracking tool (METT) (Note 0-1-lowest to highest score) 1.2 At least 3 restored coral sites, with resilient varieties grown in coral nurseries, 0.00 0.00 3.00 3.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 within TAMR and SWCMR (with each site measuring 300 m2); (Number) 1.3 Baseline for the monitoring of adherence to ICZM Plan guidelines 0.00 3.00 established in 3 regions (northern, central and southern Belize) (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has No baseline data exists to assess coastal development adhering to the development guidelines set by the ICZM plan. Because of the limited time for project been Revised implementation, the project will collect baseline data in 3 of the 9 coastal planning regions in Belize by the end of the project. Component 2. Promotion of Viable Alternative Livelihoods The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 2.1 Alternative livelihoods Sub-projects developed 0.00 10.00 10.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The proposed change in the end target from 20 to 10 subprojects is based on the observation made at mid-term evaluation. At the time of the evaluation, the been Revised project had not started any sub-project activities, as communities had not identified any suitable projects. 2.2 (a) Persons participating in training based on training needs assessment and % of 0.00 200.00 500.00 500.00 trainees are women; (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has The proposed change in target (from 2000 to 500 people) reflects the reality based on the updated monitoring assessment. The target includes training obtained been Revised through subprojects and skills training. 2.2 (b) % of trainees are 0.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 women (Percentage) Component 3. Raising Awareness and Building Local Capacity 3.1 Behavior change communication (BCC) campaigns conducted at all 0.00 0.00 5.00 5.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 the target fishing communities (Number) IO Table SPACE The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408) The World Bank BZ Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation (P131408)