1 Planning for Electricity Access 2014/35 92671 A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE THE BOTTOM LINE Planning for Electricity Access That “electricity for all” campaigns around the globe often fall short of their targets Why is this issue important? progress made between 1990 and 2010, the pace of electrification must double in order to reach 100 percent electrification by 2030— is partly a failure of planning. Better planning can improve the success rate of a goal set by the United Nations General Assembly in 2012 (World In the area of generation and programs to expand access to electricity Bank 2013). And, ironically, achieving meaningful improvement in transmission, technical changes With about 1.2 billion people around the world still lacking electricity, energy access will require raising the very low per capita consump- could improve the handling of access to reliable power remains a global development challenge. tion targets that are often part of Electricity for All programs (Bazilian key constraints, such as fuel However, “Electricity for All” programs in many countries of South and Pielke 2013). availability, funding, and the Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America are behind schedule. Finally, more extensive and realistic planning that takes into rate of building. Planning for India, for example, had originally set the goal of achieving 100 account physical, financial, and institutional constraints—will be distribution networks could be percent electrification by 2012, but a quarter of its population, or needed to improve the effectiveness of electricity access programs improved by gathering data on more than 300 million people, are still without access to any form by devising a technology mix and schedule that are more likely to be end-use demand and deploying of modern energy services.1 The new government has recently achievable. There is also ample room for better planning to select the geospatial tools. Most important announced a revised target of 2022. In Sub-Saharan Africa, nearly best mix of grid and off-grid distribution. of all, the entire planning 600 million people—two-thirds of the region’s total population—and This note highlights the importance of coordinating planning process—from generation to 10 million small and medium-sized enterprises have no access to activities across the electricity supply chain from generation to distribution—must be better electricity. Per capita electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa demand, including new connections, to better plan for electricity coordinated if access plans are (excluding South Africa) averages only about 124 kWh a year, barely 1 access. to be successful. percent of typical consumption in high-income countries and hardly enough to power one light bulb per person for six hours a day. The What is the key challenge? Debabrata region (again excluding South Africa) consumes as much electricity Chattopadhyay is a Electricity planning in most developing nations each year as the state of New York (IEA 2010). senior energy specialist in Lack of access to modern energy services is a major impediment suffers from common shortcomings the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global Practice. to efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It impedes education—for Planning for generation and transmission typically includes example, because children are unable to study at night—and saps preparation of a master plan every three to five years, comple- Rahul Kitchlu is an energy productivity and competitiveness because businesses, markets, and mented in many cases by annual or biannual national plans from the specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice clinics must restrict their operating hours. energy ministry. Most such plans—which are too often based on the (Africa Unit). Solving the problem is not a simple matter. The level of effort aspirations of governments and on political considerations—have Rhonda L. Jordan is an needed to enhance access is immense. Notwithstanding significant done no more than provide a broad guide, typically a schedule for energy specialist in the the installation of additional capacity that quickly proves overopti- Energy and Extractives mistic and falls behind for lack of investment. Planning in Bangladesh 1 The failure to meet targets in India and many other countries can be tracked to generation Global Practice. and fuel supply constraints that were overlooked or ignored when targets were set. and India, for instance, has not reflected the serious primary energy 2 Planning for Electricity Access crunch that has cut back gas and coal generation. Assumptions What solutions are available? about the rate at which generation and transmission assets will be built have almost never been met in either country. As generation More ground-level data and better coordination of lags behind, transmission and distribution assets go underused and planning processes will improve outcomes access to electricity is not expanded. Traditional planning tools and processes in electricity generation The off-grid programs (such as solar home systems) that and high-voltage transmission are generally adequate but could be “Off-grid programs are have emerged to fill the vacuum are relatively expensive, have their improved to better capture constraints that either were historically too often introduced own share of problems of reliability and quality, and ultimately do absent (for example, the intermittency of certain renewables) or were with the unexamined not expand access beyond basic household needs. Although such not binding enough to invalidate planning outcomes (for example, approaches may be a necessary part of an overall access plan, the supply of gas and oil). Bangladesh presents an example where assumption that the grid they are too often introduced with the unexamined assumption the planning studies undertaken in 2005 largely missed the impend- will not reach parts of the that the grid will not reach parts of the country for many years and ing gas shortage, anticipating more than 21 GW of new gas-based country for many years that the per capita power consumption of low-income households capacity in the base case (NEXANT 2005/06). The subsequent master and that the per capita will remain at a subsistence level. There are some exceptions. plan developed in 2010 corrected for this problem to some extent power consumption of Bangladesh’s solar-home-system program has filled an important (JICA 2011). The resulting plan was much more diversified, with niche in face of severely constrained electricity supply. Off-grid domestic and imported coal accounting for more than half of the low-income households programs implemented by the private sector on market principles planned capacity. will remain at a subsistence are more sustainable than similar programs operated by grid utilities Much better coordination of generation and transmission is level.” with capital and operating subsidies. But when they are implemented needed, especially as power networks in the developing world outside the purview of grid utilities, the latter cannot integrate them become more interconnected (within regions of a single country, into their planning. between countries, or among several countries in a given region).2 Planning of distribution systems is limited or nonexistent Similar enhancements are needed to anticipate and account for in most countries, even among the top-performing state utilities. cross-border power trading, where this already exists or may be Insufficient information on existing and new customers (including advantageous. India’s Central Electricity Authority has for decades off-grid demand) makes it impossible to estimate future demand. relied on a sequential planning process that tailors transmission to Decisions about grid extension and off-grid electrification are driven generation without placing sufficient emphasis on grid-reinforcement by policy targets, with only limited planning and analysis to guide projects that could reduce the need for peaking generation in some the operation of the system (World Bank 2014), the selection of parts of the network. In its latest national electricity plan, the author- transmission and distribution components, and the optimization ity partly remedied the problem by developing subregional grids to of grid extension with off-grid solutions. An assumption typically reduce system costs (CEA 2012). Recent planning efforts in India implicit in planning of distribution assets is that the available supply demonstrate a more explicit recognition of the additional investment of electricity will be adequate, which is not necessarily true. When needed for grid reinforcement. However, recognition remains limited supply proves inadequate, the utility usually ends up buying power of cross-border power trading opportunities that could help India at an exorbitant rate, building small and expensive diesel-powered address the problem of access to electricity. generation plants or falling back on solar home systems and other Finally, the forecasting of demand must be drastically improved. off-grid solutions. Meanwhile, firms expand their reliance on back-up Historically, demand for electricity has been assumed to correlate generation. strongly with economic growth. While the gross domestic product In short, even when rural electrification programs succeed in erecting poles and wires, supply in many cases has been too unreli- 2 Such coordination between generation and transmission is not easy to achieve because able to provide meaningful service, especially for economic activities. of increasing institutional separation and because financing may come from different sources. 3 Planning for Electricity Access provides a helpful guide to aggregate demand, “hot spots” often Kenya to gather and analyze information on where and how people are not captured. Accurate demand estimates depend on realistic live so as to improve their access to services and markets (Parshall estimates of disaggregated demand, including suppressed demand. and others 2009). Min and others (2013) report findings of a World Preparing such forecasts may involve a significantly higher level of Bank–funded research effort to use night-imagery data gathered effort. But as the work by Parshall and others (2009) and ongoing by the U.S. Air Force’s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program to “Decisions about grid work at the Columbia University Sustainable Engineering Lab (http:// monitor power consumption in more than a thousand villages in extension and off-grid sel.columbia.edu/projects/) make clear, this approach has the Senegal and Mali. This is a relatively new but promising area in which potential, by integrating network planning with demographic data, significant effort is needed to develop and integrate the necessary electrification are driven to produce realistic supply plans and to blur, to the extent possible, data across jurisdictions to improve system-level planning and merge by policy targets, with the boundaries between distribution and upstream generation and traditional engineering-focused methods of distribution planning with only limited planning transmission. geospatial planning. For more examples of research on geospatial and analysis to guide the New bottom-up approaches for demand estimates, such as applications to power-system planning, see box 1. planning tools based on geospatial data, should be incorporated Ideally, geospatial planning tools should be developed not at the operation of the system. wherever the requisite information is available or can be developed utility level but at the national level. The scale of such an operation, And planning of distribution with relatively little effort. This is particularly important in planning including the need for coordination across relevant sectors (water, systems is virtually distribution networks. With bottom-up approaches, planners can electricity, roads, telecommunications) poses a significant challenge. nonexistent in most gather substantially more information on customers (for example, the Real-life implementation of geospatial planning has tended to focus location and income level of households) and then use structured on individual sectors and to be confined to relatively small areas countries, even among analysis to gain a detailed view of demand and, on the basis of that within a country. In an ongoing World Bank project in Nigeria, a geo- the top-performing state analysis, decide on the best way to extend the grid or to rely on spatial least-cost model is being developed for a small region within utilities.” off-grid solutions, as the case may be.3 The costs of connecting new the country by digitizing the existing grid network and overlaying it customers to the grid must be properly accounted for in determining with technical, demographic, and economic data. The technical data the best course of action. Where those costs are underestimated, elements needed for efficient distribution network planning analysis superior off-grid solutions may be undermined. are digital mapping of the grid network and information on demand, The importance of strategic and operational planning has been supply (load), and resource availability. Necessary demographic data recognized in the last decade. Hawkins (2007, 2009) presented early include population density and growth patterns (urban and rural ideas for improving distribution-network planning using General sprawl), and social institutions (health centers, schools, government Electric’s SmallWorld software. Introduced in 2009/10, SmallWorld (GE offices). Also needed are data on customers’ ability and willingness 2010) uses spatial information to help planners understand where to pay for electricity based on poverty trends, household incomes new networks should be targeted, where additional investment and expenditures, and commercial and industrial activity. This is required to meet forecasted demand for capacity, and where a extensive data set is created using simple and modern mapping business justification for investments in network upgrades may be techniques based on a GIS-embedded global positioning system. needed. Network companies and distribution utilities in developed The critical areas in which planning must improve if it is to countries have begun to rely on these tools to support the business address access in a rigorous way are summarized in figure 1. cases they present to regulators. Before sound distribution planning can be initiated, generation The concept of planning based on geographic information and transmission planners must have access to bottom-up forecasts systems (GIS) has also been applied in developing nations such as that capture realistic demand and supply inputs. Planners need to realize that, to be meaningful and sustainable, access to electricity 3 Again, the efforts and costs involved in developing GIS datasets and tools can be quite should be conceived not as a steady state of subsistence consump- extensive, especially in a developing country. Nevertheless, geospatial planning has been suc- tion but rather in terms of rising demand over time (World Bank 2013; cessfully implemented in several developing nations, as discussed further on. 4 Planning for Electricity Access Box 1. Major research efforts in geospatial planning Despite promising beginnings, geospatial planning is still in the research and development stage. These three research groups are among those most active in the area: • The Earth Institute at Columbia University has undertaken significant geospatial planning exercises over the past 10 years in several “By combining GIS-based countries of Africa, Asia, and Oceania—including India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Kenya (Parshall and others 2009); Liberia data with conventional (Modi and others 2009); and Senegal. Under the leadership of Professor Vijay Modi, the Earth Institute is also implementing an ongoing distribution-network Bank-supported program in Nigeria that is piloting geospatial least-cost planning in selected distribution zones while ensuring that the planning tools (such sector master plan is developed and updated in coordination with the distribution plan. as load-flow software), • Professor Ignacio Perez-Arriaga of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Universidad Pontifícia de Comillas is currently undertaking research on a comprehensive modeling framework to combine GIS data on households, a “reference electricity model” designs for distribution for the design of networks, and an energy planning model to analyze the impact of access policies across the economy (Perez-Arriaga networks can be made 2014). to reflect real conditions • KTH Division of Energy Systems analysis (KTH/dESA), under the leadership of Professor Mark Howells, has performed analyses based on the ground and thus on geospatial planning for the 2015 World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency. Their recent work in Nigeria, for example, provide guidance on the includes an extensive analysis of high- and medium-voltage network expansion compared with off-grid solutions (Howells 2014). best way to enhance access.” Bazilian and Pielke 2013). They should also realize that generation Although not explicitly the focus of this note, the commercial and transmission plans have often failed to recognize constraints on viability of distribution companies, especially in countries where the growth of generating capacity. utilities have been privatized, is an important aspect of effective Planning of the medium- and low-voltage (MV/LV) distribution planning. Least-cost approaches, properly used, can help maintain network, in turn, should be based on the forecast availability of the financial health of the sector, while incorporating affordability and electricity at the substation level for the forecast years. The level of other sociopolitical objectives through a system of graduated tariffs availability will drive decisions to extend the grid or to rely on off-grid and subsidies. Once technical aspects are identified and planned, solutions. An important element in such planning is the extent of private distribution companies can be incentivized to make invest- locally available renewable resources that may either be connected ments in infrastructure such as substations, transformers, MV/LV line to the grid or become part of off-grid solutions (mini- and microgrids). extensions, and so on, through a system of capital subsidies using a Excellent planning tools, such as HOMER (http://www.homerenergy. combination of direct subsidies (capital buydowns), indirect subsidies com/), are available to help planners make the right decisions. By (tax credits, amortization allowances, trade and import incentives), combining GIS-based data with conventional distribution-network and output-based allocations (connection subsidies). Targeted support planning tools (such as load-flow software), designs for distribution (such as for pro-poor and gender-based policies) can be offered to networks can be made to reflect real conditions on the ground and distribution companies to recover the ongoing cost of supply and thus provide guidance on the best way to enhance access (Hawkins maintenance of assets through a combination of direct tariff subsidies 2007, 2009). (for households that consume small amounts of power) or cross-sub- sidization by consumers of larger amounts of power. 5 Planning for Electricity Access Figure 1.  Planning framework for electricity access Demand informed by bottom-up forecasts Generation plan Realistic constraints on investment, primary resources, rate of build, intermittency of renewables, policy targets, etc. “Future R&D efforts should be directed not only at High voltage transmission Realistic constraints on investment, availability, uncertainties around generation development, right-of-way, and cross-border power trading across countries/regions enhancing specialized grid plan Integration tools, but at improving how those tools can be effectively coordinated to Consideration of proximity to grid, economies of scale in MV/LV/Single-Wire-Earth Return Geospatial medium/low support the development Local renewable resources available voltage network plan Off-grid options available and execution of a long- term access strategy.” Bottom-up GIS-based Detailed demographic data demand forecast Source: World Bank. What have we learned? need to improve the planning of distribution networks by deploying geospatial tools to gather and analyze data on end-use demand. Understanding demand and integrated planning are Most essential of all, the generation, transmission, and distribu- the royal road to expanding access to electricity tion components need to be well coordinated if access plans are to The persistent failure of “electricity for all” campaigns around the be meaningful. No universally agreed methodology or planning tool globe to meet their targets demonstrates that increasing access to yet exists to facilitate the necessary coordination. Future R&D efforts, electricity is a challenge not fully understood. Institutional weak- as well as project planning by the World Bank and other donors, nesses, political interference, and the need for financing have all should be directed not only at enhancing specialized planning tools, been identified as components of the challenge. But sound technical but at improving how those tools can be effectively coordinated planning deserves no less attention. Even in the mature area of to support the development and execution of a long-term access planning for generation and transmission, where the key ingredients strategy. A more holistic approach to project planning would seem to already exist for better planning, small changes could improve the be indicated, both nationally and from the World Bank’s perspective. prospects of success of efforts to widen access to electricity. Defter Small, individual Bank projects probably will not be as effective in handling of key constraints, such as fuel availability, funding, and the widening access to electricity as a continuous project that supports rate of building, would allow generation and transmission master GIS system development over a period of, say, 10 years. plans to better guide access strategies. There is an equally pressing 6 Planning for Electricity Access Available tools, properly used, can also inform policy interven- Min, B., K. M. Gaba, O. F. Sarr, and A. Agalassou. 2013. “Detection MAKE FURTHER tions by governments and support the mobilization of resources of Rural Electrification in Africa Using DMSP-OLD Nightlights CONNECTIONS (public, private, and donor-funded) behind access initiatives. There Imagery.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 34 (22): are many potential impediments to successful implementation of 8118–41. Live Wire 2014/1. “Transmitting such initiatives, including political and social barriers. But a case Modi, V., E. Adkins, J. Carbajal, and S. Sherpa. 2009. “National Renewable Energy to the Grid,” backed by scientific data, rigorously gathered, will always have a Electricity Master Plan for Liberia.” Available at http:// by Marcelino Madrigal and better chance of overcoming these barriers. modi.mech.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/ Rhonda Lenai Jordan. LiberiaEnergySectorReform_Phase4Report-Final_2013-08.pdf. Nexant. 2005. “Power System Master Plan.” Prepared for the Power Live Wire 2014/9. “Tracking References Cell under ADB TA-4379 BAN. Dhaka, Bangladesh. Access to Electricity,” by JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). 2011. “Power System Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee and ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2014. “Quantum Leap in Wind Power Master Plan 2010.” Final report of project to develop 2010 master Elisa Portale. Development in Asia and Pacific.” Manila. Philippines. http://www. plan for Bangladesh power system. Tokyo. February. adb.org/projects/44489-012/main. Parshall, L., D. Pillai, S. Moha, A. Sahoy, and V. Modi. 2009. “National Live Wire 2014/16. “Capturing the Bazilian, M., and R. Pielke. 2013. “Making Energy Access Meaningful.” Electricity Planning in Settings with Low Pre-Existing Grid Multi-Dimensionality of Energy Issues in Science and Technology (Summer). Also available Coverage: Development of a Spatial Model and Case Study of Access,” by Mikul Bhatia and at http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_ Kenya.” Energy Policy 37: 2395–2410. Nicolina Angelou. files/2013.22.pdf. Perez-Arriaga, I., Y. Borofsky, D. Ellman, A. Gonzalez, and C. Vergara. CEA (Central Electricity Authority). 2012. National Electricity Plan. Live Wire 2014/17. “Incorporating 2014. “Planning Models for Rural Electrification Using the Vols. 1 (Generation) and 2 (Transmission). New Delhi. Energy from Renewable Reference Electrification Model (REM) to Expand Electricity http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/ Resources into Power System Access.” Presentation to Tata Centre, India. August. generation_12.pdf; http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/ Planning,” by Marcelino Madrigal World Bank. 2013. Global Tracking Framework. Sustainable Energy for nep2012/transmission_12.pdf. and Rhonda Lenai Jordan. All Program. Washington DC. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/ General Electric. 2010. “Utility and Telecommunication Solutions: energy/publication/Global-Tracking-Framework-Report Electric Utility Solutions.” Available at https://www.gedigitalen- World Bank. 2014. “India: Powering a 21st Century Nation.” Review ergy.com/geospatial/elecutil_solutions.htm. and discussion of S. Pargal and S. G. Banerjee, More Power to Hawkins, D. 2007. “An Integrated Planning, Design, and Analysis India: The Challenge of Electricity Distribution. Report 88906. Environment for New Distributed Generation Connections.” Washington, DC: World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/en/ Presentation at 19th International Conference and Exhibition on news/feature/2014/06/24/india-powering-a-21st-century-nation. Electricity Distribution (CIRED), Vienna, Austria. ———. 2009. “An Integrated MV Distributed Generation Connection The authors would like to thank Morgan Bazilian and Vivien Foster for Planning Tool.” Presentation at 19th International Conference and reviewing an early draft of this note and offering several helpful suggestions. Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED), Prague. Howells, M., 2014. “Status Report for WEO 2015 Chapter 3.” Unpublished report prepared for World Energy Outlook 2015, forthcoming, International Energy Agency, Paris. 7 Ge t C o n n e c t ed t o L i v e W i r e Get Connected to Live Wire Live Wires are designed for easy reading on the screen and for downloading The Live Wire series of online knowledge notes is an initiative of the World Bank Group’s Energy and self-printing in color or “Live Wire is designed and Extractives Global Practice, reflecting the emphasis on knowledge management and solu- black and white. tions-oriented knowledge that is emerging from the ongoing change process within the Bank for practitioners inside Group. 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Knowledge Notes and search alphabetically for Live Wires) issues of Live Wire will also be featured in the bi-monthly Newsletter World Bank Energy Digest. Each Live Wire will be peer-reviewed by seasoned practitioners in the Bank. Once a year, the Energy and Extractives Global Practice takes stock of all notes that appeared, reviewing their quality and identifying priority areas to be covered in the following year’s pipeline. e Pa c i f i c 2014/28 ainable energy for all in easT asia and Th 1 Tracking Progress Toward Providing susT https://openknowledge.worldbank.org A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRAC TIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE THE BOTTOM LINE Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy for All in East Asia and the Pacific where does the region stand on the quest for sustainable 2014/29 ia and cenTral as energy for all? in 2010, eaP easTern euroPe sT ainable en ergy for all in databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame- g su v i d i n had an electrification rate of Why is this important? ess Toward Pro work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of 1 Tracking Progr 95 percent, and 52 percent of the population had access Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring the GTF in 2015. to nonsolid fuel for cooking. the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below. consumption of renewable (SE4ALL) initiative C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E overall E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y & E X T R A • Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured energy decreased A KNO WLEDGE NOTE SERI In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for by the percentage of the population with an electricity between 1990 and 2010, though All,” the UN General Assembly established three objectives to be connection and the percentage of the population with access modern forms grew rapidly. Energy d Providing Sustainable accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern energy energy intensity levels are high to nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household Tracking Progress Towar services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in the global surveys and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification but declining rapidly. overall THE BOTTOM LINE energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement in energy e and Central Asia trends are positive, but bold Database and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy for All in Eastern Europ stand efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012). where does the region policy measures will be required setting Database. The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries on that frame- • Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the on the quest for sustainable to sustain progress. technical measures. This in a way that is consistent note is based with the overall their own national targets energy for all? The region databases— SE4ALL will publish an updated version of energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy ? (World Bank 2014). countries differ greatly in their ability access to Why is this important spirit the initiative. ofwork Because consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources. has near-universal of is critical to monitoring to pursue thetheGTF in 2015. three objectives, some will make more rapid progress GTF uses to electricity, and 93 percent Tracking regional trends for All in one areaThe while primary indicators others will excel and data elsewhere, sources depending that theon their Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy summarized below. balances published by the International Energy Agency and the the population has access the progress of the Sustainable Energy respective track starting progress and the toward points three SE4ALL comparative goals are advantages as well as on is measured to nonsolid fuel for cooking. modern energy services United Nations. access. Accessthat they to are able to marshal. despite relatively abundant (SE4ALL) initiative the resources and support Energy with an electricity connection Elisa Portale is an Energy for momentum by the percentage To sustain of forthe the population achievement of the SE4ALL 2• Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency l Year of Sustainable access to nonsolid fuels. hydropower, the share In declaring 2012 the “Internationa energy economist in of the population global progress with to 2030 is needed. is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) energy established three global objectives objectives, Sector andathe means of charting percentage and reported in Assembly the Energy surveys of renewables All,” the UN General access to modern universalAssistance The World TheseBank and data are thecollected International using household Energy Agency led a consor- of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total consumption has remained to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure Management Database and the World renewable of theenergy intium of 15 international in the World Bank’s Global agencies to Electrification establish the SE4ALL Global primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) energy the 2010 share of Program (ESMAP) relatively low. very high energy services, to double Database. measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to 1 t ’s Household provides Energy a system for regular come World to Bank’s Energy double the global rate of improvemen and Extractives Tracking Framework Health (GTF), which Organization energy in the energy levels have mix, and renewable intensity the global energy Global Practice. (SE4ALL 2012). global reporting, based on Renewable energy. The sharepractical, given available rigorous—yet of calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances down rapidly. The big questions to the period 1990–2010 final energy consumption in energy efficiency relative Joeri de Wit is individual an countries setting mix is measured by the percentage of total published by the International Energy Agency and the United are how renewables will evolve are global, with resources. Data used to The SE4ALL objectives with the overall renewable energy on the planet has access from published Nations. energy economist in when every person picks up a way that is consistent 1 The universal derived that isaccess goal will be achieved balances when energy demand national targets in electricity, obtained clean from cooking energy fuels, clean heating fuels, their own the Bank’s Energy and in their ability to modern energy services provided through this indicator are again and whether recent rates countries differ greatly calculate productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions” and the United Nations. spirit of the initiative. Because and energy for agricultural Extractives Global progress Energy Agency fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas), 2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, some will make more rapid refers by the to solutions International that involve electricity or gaseous efficiency is pellets and briquettes), and and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as of decline in energy intensity to pursue the three objectives, Practice. of improvemen rates at ort of energy near those of Energy efficiency. The rate paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions on their or solid/liquid fuels will continue. area while others will excel elsewhere, depending liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). in one on and comparative advantages as well as approximated by the compound total primary energy respective starting points intensity is the ratio of that they are able to marshal. intensity, where energy measured in purchas- the resources and support domestic product (GDP) for the achievement of the SE4ALL consumption to gross Elisa Portale is an To sustain momentum terms. Data used to calculate energy intensity to 2030 is needed. ing power parity (PPP) energy economist in charting global progress balances published by the International objectives, a means of led a consor- are obtained from energy the Energy Sector International Energy Agency The World Bank and the SE4ALL Global Energy Agency and the United Nations. Management Assistance agencies to establish the the GTF to provide a regional and tium of 15 international for regular This note uses data from Program (ESMAP) of the which provides a system for Eastern Tracking Framework (GTF), the three pillars of SE4ALL World Bank’s Energy and Extractives on rigorous—yet practical, given available country perspective on Global Practice. global reporting, based has access Joeri de Wit is an will be achieved when every person on the planet The universal access goal heating fuels, clean cooking fuels, clean energy economist in 1 agricultural provided through electricity, biomass (wood, charcoal, to modern energy services The term “modern cooking solutions” to include both traditional and briquettes), and Solid fuels are defined the Bank’s Energy and use and community services. biomass (such as pellets 2 and energy for productive petroleum gas), and so on), processed fuels (including liquefied and forest residues, dung, involve electricity or gaseous at or near those of Extractives Global refers to solutions that overall emissions rates other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). with stoves exhibiting Practice. or solid/liquid fuels paired (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). liquefied petroleum gas 8 D o y o u h a v e s o me t h i n g t o s a y ? 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By communicating directly • A professional series editor ensures that the writing is punchy and accessible. with the team (contact • A professional graphic designer assures that the final product looks great—a feather in your cap! Morgan Bazilian, mbazilian@ worldbank.org) Live Wire aims to raise the profile of operational staff wherever they are based; those with hands-on knowledge to share. That’s your payoff! It’s a chance to model good uroPe and cenT ral asia 2014/29 all in easTern e ble energy for “knowledge citizenship” and participate in the ongoing change process at the Bank, v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a ess Toward Pro 1 Tracking Progr where knowledge management is becoming everybody’s business. A KNOWLEDGE NOT E SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRACT IVES GLOBAL PRAC TICE rgy Providing Sustainable Ene Tracking Progress Toward Or 2014/5 1 U n d e r s ta n d i n g C O 2 emissiOns frOm the glObal energy seCt THE BOTTOM LINE pe and Cen tral Asia for All in Eastern Euro stand where does the region on the quest for sustaina ble based on that frame- measures. This note is databases—technical updated version of energy for all? The region SE4ALL will publish an has near-universal access to WhyD is this important? ERGY PRACTICE work (World Bank 2014). E G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N to electricity, and 93 percent of A K N O W L g regiona l trends is critical monitoring the GTF in 2015. data sources that the GTF uses to Trackin The primary indicator s and the population has access s of the Sustain able Energy for All the three SE4ALL goals are summari zed below. the progres track progress toward Understanding CO Emissions from the Global Energy Sector nonsolid fuel for cooking. is measured to modern energy services THE BOTTOM LINE to Your Name Here t (SE4ALL) initiativ e Energy access. Access connection despite relatively abundan 2 population with an electricity ional Year of Sustainab le Energy for by the percentage of the access to nonsolid fuels. 2 hydropower, the share the energy sector contributes In declaring 2012 the “Internat objectives percenta ge of the population with establish ed three global and the and reported about 40 percent of global of renewables in energy All,” the UN General Assembly using household surveys Why is this issue important? access to modern These data are collected 2030: to ensure universal and the World Become an author has remained emissions of CO2. three- consumption to be accomplished by of renewable energy in in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database high energy knowledge the share of the 2010 . energy requires very relatively low. Mitigating climate change services, to 1 double ld Energy Database quarters of those emissions rate of improvement Organization’s Househo CO2 intensity levels have come and to double the global Figure 1. CO2 emissions Health Figure 2. energy-related The share of renewable energy in the energy come from six major the global energy mix, sources of CO question s2 emissions to the period 1990–201 0 (SE4ALL 2012). by sector Renewab le energy. emissions by country consumption down rapidly. The big economies. although coal-fired in energy efficiency relative countries setting percenta ge of total final energy mix is measured by the of Live Wire and global, with individual LICs evolve les will opportunities to cut emissions of greenhouse aregases used to plants account for just are how renewab Identifying The SE4ALL objectives le energy resources. Data 0.5% picks upunderstanding of the main sources ofin those a way that is consistent with emis- the overall that is derived from renewab energy balances published 40 percent of world energy when energy demand requires a clear their own national targets in their ability are obtained from calculate this indicator Other Carbonrates for more than 80 percent of differ greatly countries Residential production, they were again and whethersions.recent dioxide (CO2) accounts spirit of the initiative. Because 6% sectors progress Other MICs nal Energy Agency and the United Nations. will make more rapid 15% intensity gas emissions globally, 1 primarily from the burning s, some 10% by the Internatio China improvement of energy efficiency is contribute to your responsible for more than of decline in energytotal greenhouse to pursue the three objective on their Other HICs . The rate of energy sector—defined include toexcel elsewhere, depending Energy efficiency 30% growth rate (CAGR) of energy will continue. of fossil fuels (IFCC 2007). The will 8% in one area while others by the compound annual Energy 70 percent of energy-sector as well as on 41% approxim and heat generation—contributed and compara tive advantages 41 ated Japan 4% energy the ratio of total primary Industry emissions in 2010. despite fuels consumed for electricity respective starting points 20% Russia energy intensity is that they are able to marshal. in 2010 (figure 1). Energy-related intensity, where USA product (GDP) measured in purchas- improvements in some percent of global CO2 emissions the resources and support 7% gross domestic practice and career! up the bulk of such ent of the SE4ALL Other consump tion to India 19% intensity is an at the point of combustion make for the achievem calculate energy countries, the global CO2 Elisa 2 emissions COPortale To sustain momentum transport Road 7% EU terms. Data used to andinare generated by the burning of fossil is needed. global progress to 2030 6% transport fuels, industrial ing power parity (PPP) the International economist objectives, a means of charting balances published by emissions 11% emission factor for energy energy 16% EnergyandSector nonrenewable municipal waste to generate nal Energy Agency led electricity Internatio a consor- are obtained from energy The World Bank and the thewaste, generation has hardly changed United Nations. ent Assistance venting and leakage to establish the emissions SE4ALL Global Energy Agency and the sector at the point and over the last 20 years. and heat. Black carbon and methane Managem tium of 15 international agencies Notes: Energy-related CO2 emissions are CO2 emissions from the energy from the GTF to provide a regional of the for regular This note usesanddata domestic Program (ESMAP) are not included in the analysis presented in this rk note. which provides a system (GTF), of combustion. Other Transport includes international marine aviation bunkers, of SE4ALL for Eastern Extractives Tracking Framewo available Other Sectors rail and pipeline transport; perspect ive on the three include pillars commercial/public World Bank’s Energy and given aviation and navigation, country on rigorous—yet practical, services, agriculture/forestry, fishing, energy industries other than electricity and heat genera- Global Practice. global reporting, based elsewhere; Energy = fuels consumed for electricity and Where do emissions come from? tion, and other emissions not specified as has in the opening paragraph. HIC, MIC, and LIC refer to high-, middle-, access Joeri de Wit is an will be achieved when on the planet heat generation, every person defined The universal access goal of countries heating fuels, energy economistare Emissions concentrated in 1 in a handful to modern energy services provided through electricity, fuels, clean and low-income clean cooking countries. cooking solutions” to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural The term “modern Source: IEA 2012a. Solid fuels are defined and briquettes), and the Bank’s Energy and use and community services. biomass (such as pellets 2 and come primarily from burning and energy coal for productive electricity or gaseous fuels involve (including liquefied petroleum gas), of and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed Vivien Foster is sector Extractives Global refers to solutions that overall emissions rates at or near those other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). with stoves exhibiting or solid/liquid fuels paired emissions closely manager for the Sus- The geographical pattern of energy-related CO Practice. gas 2 (www.sustainableenergy forall.org). liquefied petroleum middle-income countries, and only 0.5 percent by all low-income tainable Energy Depart- mirrors the distribution of energy consumption (figure 2). In 2010, ment at the World Bank countries put together. almost half of all such emissions were associated with the two (vfoster@worldbank.org). Coal is, by far, the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions largest global energy consumers, and more than three-quarters globally, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total (figure 3). Daron Bedrosyan were associated with the top six emitting countries. Of the remaining works for London This reflects both the widespread use of coal to generate electrical energy-related CO2 emissions, about 8 percent were contributed Economics in Toronto. power, as well as the exceptionally high CO2 intensity of coal-fired by other high-income countries, another 15 percent by other Previously, he was an power (figure 4). Per unit of energy produced, coal emits significantly energy analyst with the more CO emissions than oil and more than twice as much as natural 2 World Bank’s Energy Practice. Gas Inventory 1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Greenhouse 0.php gas. Data—Comparisons By Gas (database). http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/380