25301 0227 2002 . . , ; , , . , , , , - , , . , : World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. .: (202) 458-5267, : (202) 614-0471, : socialprotection@worldbank.org., - : http://www.worldbank.org.org/sp. 2002 . , () , , . 1 , . , , , . , , , . , , .., , . (). . , , (.: (202) 458-5267, : (202) 614-0471, : socialprotection@worldbank.org. , , : www.worldbank.org/poverty/safety. - . , , : http://www.worldbank.org/wbi/socialsafetynets. , 2002 1 Tabor Rogers and Coates Alderman Bitran and Giedion Katsura and Romanik Subbarao Sharma and Morduch Grosh, Blomquist and Ouerghi de Neubourg Coady, Grosh and Hoddinott Blomquist Graham Besley, Burgess, Rasul Ezemenari et al Conning and Kevane , / Smith and Subbarao Fox , Grosh and Schwarz 1 , , . 2 . , . , . , . , . 3 ................................................................................................................................5 ................................................................................................................7 «» ........................................................................................8 ..........................................................................................................9 : .......................................................................................................................9 ............................................................................................................10 ............................................................10 ...........................................11 .........................................................................................................12 ()......................................12 ..........................................................................12 ................................................14 .......16 .............................17 , .................................................................................................................18 .............................................................................................18 : ........19 : ..............................................21 : .....................................................................22 ...................................................................................................22 ...............................................................................23 ...........................................................................................................24 .... ...............................26 ............................................................................................................................27 .......................................................................................................................29 4 , - -. , (), , ..1 . , , . , . « », , , . « », . , « » . ? , ( ) , (Morduch 1999a). , , . , , . -, . , . -, (., ), . 1 , , . . : jonathan.morduch@nyu.edu, - : m.sharma@cgiar.org. 5 ; , : ? , -, , . (World Bank 2001a), 2000/2001 (World Bank 2001b). , . , . , . , - , , Zunde ramambo, ( Zunde ramambo , .)2 , , , - , . , , , , , . : · , ? · ? · , ? · , ? , . , 2 zunde ramambo Chinowaita (2000). 6 , . - , , - , . , . , , , . , , . ; , , . , , , «» , , . , « » , . , , «», « ». «». . , , , . , . , , . ., , , , , . , , , , , . : · , - , ( ) (Jacoby and Skoufias 1997; Jensen 2000); 7 · , . ., , ; ; · , (., ), ; · , ; · , ., , ; · , , ; · ( ); · , , , . , ( ) , - , , ( , ) . «» , , , , . : (1) «», (2) . 8 , , , . ( ) . -, , , , (., ). , «», - . , , , , . . , ; , , . , , , . , . , , , , . - , . , , . - , , , , . : ( , , , «», ). , ( ). 9 ; . , , : , , «», . . , , . ( ). , , , ( ) . , , , , . ( ) «» . , , , , . , , , , , . «» , . , , , , , . , , (, , ..), . , 10 Morduch (1991) , 75-96 (, ). , , , , , , , , . , , , . , . . , ( ) , , , . ., , , . , , . , . , . , , . , , . , , . . , ; , . , . , / . , 11 , , . , , , , . , - , . , , . , , , . - « », / , . , . , , . , , ; , , . () , , . . () , , . . , , ( ). , , , , ; ( 12 - ); , , (, ). ? . , , 65% , . : 70 (Cox, Galasso, and Jimenez, 2000). ( ) ? , . (, , ) 70% , . . , , 70%. , . : , . , , : · , ; « », , . · , , - , . · (., ), , , (., ) (., ). 1980- , , 3% , . 13 · , , , , . ., , 10% 40% . 10% 10% . · () , , , . , , , «». ­ ( ), . , . ., , (1985-88.) (Foster and Rosenzweig, 1999), , - . - 26% ( 13% ) (Cox and Jimenez, 1995). , , , , , (., ., Paulson 2000 Lucas and Stark, 1985 ). . , , . , . ­ , . , , «». , , . , , 14 . ., «» «» , , , . Lucas (1997), , , , ( ). «» , . , , , . , . - , , . -, , , « ». - ( ), , «» , . , , , , , . , . Lucas and Stark (1985), , , . , Rosenzweig and Stark (1989), , , , . De la Brière et al. (1997) , , . , , , , « ». , , , . , , . . , «», , . , , - 15 , - - , . , . , ( , ) , . , - . , , , . . 3. , ; . , , , , , . . , . ; . , , , , , , . , «» , . , , ( ). , . : , , . , , 3 , , , , , . , , , , , . 16 , . Zunde ramambo, , , . , , . 4. , , , , 300 . «» , . , . 2 (4 ). , ( ) 500 . , , , ; . , . . , . , - , . ., . ? , . , ( 4% ); . , -, . , . , , , . , , . , 4 Rutherford (2000). 17 , . , . . , , , , . , « » , . , , ( ). , , , , - ., . , Dercon (1999), , «», . . , . , , , , ­ . , / ­ « » . - (ROS). . susu , esusu , upatu mchezo , chilemba chiperegani tontines (Steel et al. 1997). ROS . -, . 18 . , , . , ( ) , . , , , , . « ROS», (., ). , , , . «» (, ), . ROS . , . , , . , , «» «» , . , , . , , , , ROS. : , , , , , . . , , , . , , , , , . , 19 , , . : -, . -, , . , , , , , (Morduch 1995). , , . Binswanger and Rosenzwieg (1993) , , , , . , , , 35 . 15%, . , . Bliss and Stern (1982), , , , , . Morduch (1990) , , , «» , . , , . , Rosenzweig and Stark, , , , , - . Bardhan (1984) , , , : , . , « » ( ) , 20 , . : , . . , , , , - , . , . : . , , , . . , , , , , . ., (1998), , Jensen , 20 - 40 100 . , , . , , . : · ( , ), ? « », ? , ? · ? , , ? ., «» 21 , , . , .. «», , . , , , . · , , , ? · ( ), ? , , . , : (1) ; , (2) . , , , . : , . . , , . « » , «» « » ; . , ( 50 100 , ) , . , , . ? ? , , , . . -, , 22 «» . -, , , - «» «»; . , , , , - , . , , . , ROSCA , . SafeSave [ ] ( , « ») ROSCA . , SafeSave , , . , . , , - , , 1-2 ; « » . ( , - ), . ROSCA SafeSave , . , , , , . ; susu , , - . , SafeSave? . -, SafeSave , . , , , . , ( susu), , . 23 « » , , , . «Bank Kredit Kecamatan» . : , , . SafeSave , ; , SafeSave , . , , , , . , , , , , , , , . , «». , . , , , . . « ». , . , , , . , FINCA () 1% ( 3 4 ) () ; « » (., , 1,2 . , 630 . ). ( - ) , FINCA , , 24 ; , . 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