STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP © 2018 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions: The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP ii  Acknowledgments The report is the result of a collaboration between the government of Afghanistan and the World Bank and prepared by the GFDRR/WBG as part of the Afghanistan Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Program. It presents a potential pathway to strengthen the country’s hydrometeorological (hydromet) services in general and Early Warning Systems (EWS) and services in particular, reflecting the needs of the user community. The report is based on a technical evaluation and detailed assessment of the needs and capacities of the Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD) of the Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority (ACAA) and the Water Resources Department (WRD) of the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW). These agencies issue weather and water-related forecasts and are thus considered as the main service providers in the country. Other government agencies that are responsible for the provision of advisory services related to weather, climate, hydrology, disaster management, and agriculture to end-users (down to the community level) in Afghanistan are considered as key stakeholders of AMD and WRD’s information and services. Among stakeholders, the most important are the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) and the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD). This report identifies gaps and challenges in the production and delivery of weather, climate, and hydrological information and services, and it proposes a strategy for improving the country’s institutional capacity to save lives and livelihoods and to support social and economic development. The authors consulted government institutions and agencies (including the above-listed) to stakeholders, non- governmental organizations (NGO), and donors. The report is the result of a collaboration between the government of Afghanistan and the World Bank.  The authors wish to extend their appreciation to and acknowledge the national agencies, ministries, and organizations for their support and assistance in granting access to informa- tion, for providing support to the report, and for being available for discussions during the report’s assessment. We are particularly grateful to Mr. Mahmood Shah Habibi, Head, ACAA; Mr. Sayed Reza Mousawi, Director, AMD; Mr. FazulHaq Bakhtari, Director, WRD; Mr. Sayed Sharif Shobair, Advisor, MEW; Mr. Noorullah Stanikzai, Deputy Director General, National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA); and, Mr. Ezatullah Sediqi, Deputy Director General, National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA). The World Bank team was led by Makoto Suwa and Haleh Kootval, and included Arati Belle, Abdul Azim Doosti, Ditte Fallesen, Federica Ranghieri, Mohamed Chebaane, Paul Houser, Philip Poyner, and Pedro Restrepo. iii Foreword Afghanistan is highly prone to natural disasters: every year hundreds of people lose their lives and thousands more are affected by hydrometeorological disasters. The frequency and sever- ity of extreme events such as floods, landslides and droughts are projected to increase due to climate change. Such events will undermine our country’s development efforts, which have already faced many challenges. In recent decades, we have experienced several unfortunate events, including the civil war, that have decreased institutional capacity in Afghanistan. The quality of key public services has deteriorated throughout two decades of war, turmoil, and insecurity. Meteorological and hydrological services, which are critical for almost all socioeconomic sectors in Afghanistan, were no exception. Whereas these services had once been among the best in the region, the Government of Afghanistan has had to rebuild their capacity from scratch. With support from partners, the Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority’s Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD) and the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) have regained basic capacity during the last couple of years. AMD is now able to issue basic warnings for hydrometeorologi- cal disasters such as floods, flash floods, heavy rain, dust storms, heat waves, and cold waves. Likewise, MEW is now equipped with the basic capability to monitor hydrological parameters. Rebuilding services such as these is an ongoing effort and will require systematic and holistic investment to boost the capacity of the Government of Afghanistan to provide these essential services to all of its citizens and key economic sectors. It is, therefore, my great pleasure to introduce “Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services In Afghanistan: A Road Map,” which offers strategic direction to my country on how hydromet and early warning services in Afghanistan can be strengthened and used more effectively. The practical value of this report cannot be overstated, as it comes at a time when weather and climate change consequences, if left unaddressed, will significantly hinder the country’s social and economic development. A robust set of findings and recommendations in this roadmap lays the foundation for the country’s future strengthening efforts. It also paves the way for improvements and modernization in both AMD and MEW’s Water Resources Department – two key agencies for such efforts in Afghanistan. I would like to thank the World Bank team who helped prepare this roadmap. I am very excited about this ambitious new stage in the development of effective hydromet and early warning services in Afghanistan, and I look forward to its successful implementation. Mahmood Shah Habibi Head, Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority iv  Foreword Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters and is ranked second among low- income countries on the Global Climate Risk Index in terms of the number of fatalities from natural disasters between 1980 and 2015. Droughts affect a significant proportion of the population while floods cause the most economic damage among weather hazards affecting the country. A changing climate magnifies these risks and the incidence of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, creating climate-induced disasters such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, avalanches, and rainfall-induced landslides. World Bank studies show that in the case of a lack of action, climate change related impacts can push an additional 62 million people in the South Asia Region into extreme poverty by 2030, with the risk of more than 40 million internal climate migrants by 2050. The current drought situation in Afghanistan exemplifies this trend – drought conditions over recent years have led to severe crop shortfalls in many regions that have been chronically food insecure and have so far led to the displacement of more than 150,000 people. Establishing accurate and timely hydromet, early warning and climate information services is urgently needed in Afghanistan to minimize human and economic losses. After many years of civil strife, Afghanistan is making progress towards rebuilding its hydromet and early warning institutions and recognizes the importance of quality public services. In addition to reducing loss of life and damage to assets, the productivity of key economic sectors in the country, such as agriculture, water resources management, transport, and energy depends on the availability and access to quality weather, water, and climate information services. This Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services in Afghanistan: A Road Map utilizes the hydromet value chain as a framework to identify bottlenecks and benchmark relevant best practices to strengthen and modernize hydromet services. It is a particularly timely resource and is noteworthy in bringing together multiple sectoral and service delivery agencies towards a common strategic direction. Showcasing World Bank experience, this report indicates that although the price tag of modernizing and sustaining National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHs) is considerable, the rewards for the country and its citizens is much higher, with each dollar invested yielding more than US$4 in avoided losses. The Road Map presents a pathway of action that the Government of Afghanistan could take to trans- form its NMHSs into robust, professional agencies capable of delivering the right information to the vulnerable people at the right time. Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez Senior Director, Social, Shubham Chaudhuri Urban, Rural and Country Director Resilience Global Practice Afghanistan, South Asia The World Bank Group Region, The World Bank Group  v Contents Acknowledgments.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii Forewords. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi 1. Introduction to Geographical Features and Weather, Climate and Hydrological Hazards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2. Weather and Climate Risks.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3. Socioeconomic Impacts of Hydromet Hazards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4. Assessment of User Needs for Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Services. . . . . . . . . . 15 5. Institutional and Organizational Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 5.1 A Brief History of the Afghanistan Meteorological Department.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 5.2 A Brief History of the Water Resources Management Department. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 6. Current Status of AMD, WRD-MEW, and Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 6.1 Service Delivery Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 6.1.1 Public Weather Services System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 6.1.2 Disaster Management Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 6.1.3 Aviation Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 6.1.4 Water Management and Flood Forecasting Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 6.1.5 Agricultural Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 6.1.6 Climate Services System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 6.2 Quality Management Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 6.2.1 Institutional Management Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 6.2.2 Operational Management Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 6.3 Capacity Building.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 6.4 Monitoring and Observation Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 6.4.1 Global Data System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 6.4.2 National Data Systems.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 6.4.3 Upper Air System.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 vi  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP 6.4.4 Radar System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 6.4.5 Use of Remote Sensing Products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 6.4.6 Data Management and Archiving Systems: Data Collection System, Quality System, and Storage and Archiving.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 6.5 ICT Systems: Telecommunication System (Data Exchange and Distribution System, Transmission). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 6.6 Modeling Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 6.6.1 Global and Regional NWP Systems.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 6.7 Objective and Impact Forecasting and Warning Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 6.7.1 Severe Hazard Forecasting Systems.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 6.7.2 Very Short- and Short-Range Forecasting Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 6.7.3 Medium- and Long-Range Forecasting Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 6.8 Current System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 7. Modernization of Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Early Warning Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 7.1 Value Chain Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 7.2 Development Partners and Cooperation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 7.2.1 Regional Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 7.2.2 International Initiatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 8. Proposed Road Map for Modernization of AMD and WRD-MEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 8.1 Delivery of Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 8.1.1 Strengthening Public Weather, Climate, and Hydrological Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 8.1.2 Developing a Comprehensive National Drought Monitoring Program.. . . . . . . . . . . . 62 8.1.3 Development of a National Framework for Climate Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 8.2 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 8.2.1 Institutional Strengthening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 8.2.2 Capacity Building.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 8.3 Modernization of Observation Infrastructure, Data Management Systems, and Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 8.3.1 Meteorological Observation Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 8.3.2 Hydrological Observation Infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 8.3.3 Data Management, Communication, and ICT System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 8.3.4 Meteorological Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 8.3.5 Hydrological Forecasting and Hydrological Decision Support System. . . . . . . . . . . 67 CONTENTS vii 9. Road Map Scenarios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 9.1 Scenario 1: Advanced Modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 9.1.1 Enhancement of the AMD and MEW Service Delivery Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 9.1.2 Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 9.1.3 Modernization of Observation Infrastructure, Data Management Systems, and Forecasting.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 9.2 Scenario 2: Intermediate Modernization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 9.3 Scenario 3: Technical Assistance for High Priority and Immediate Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 10. Socioeconomic Benefits of Improved Hydrometeorological Services and Early Warning Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 11. Conclusions and a Way Forward.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Annex 1. Required Training Areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Annex 2. Service Delivery Progress Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Annex 3. Observation and Telecommunication Progress Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Annex 4. Forecasting Progress Model.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Annex 5. Climate Services Progress Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Annex 6. Existing National Strategies and Plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 List of Figures Figure 1. Elevation Map of Afghanistan...........................................................................................1 Figure 2. Major River Basins of Afghanistan.................................................................................2 Figure 3. Economic Activity and Land Use in Afghanistan.......................................................4 Figure 4. Köppen Climate Classification Zones of Afghanistan...............................................5 Figure 5. Average Monthly Temperature and Rainfall, Series 1901–2015...............................6 Figure 6. Spatial Variability of Mean Annual Precipitation........................................................6 Figure 7. Flash Flood Susceptibility Index.....................................................................................7 Figure 8. Afghanistan 100-Year Avalanche Scenario..................................................................8 viii  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP Figure 9. Agricultural Drought Risk, Current Conditions...........................................................8 Figure 10. Agricultural Drought Risk, 2050 Conditions.............................................................8 Figure 11. Susceptibility Map for Cover Material Landslides in Rapid Evolution..................9 Figure 12. Overview of Natural Disasters by Province, 2013.................................................... 11 Figure 13. Afghanistan Risk Summary.......................................................................................... 12 Figure 14. Financing for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Context of the Mortality Risk Index, 1991–2010 (volumes, US$ millions).......................................................................... 13 Figure 15. Proposed Structure of Afghanistan Meteorological Department....................... 18 Figure 16. Historical Trend for Hydrometric Active Stations in Afghanistan (World Bank and Water for Life, 2017.......................................................................................... 19 Figure 17. Organizational Structure of the Water Resources Department......................... 20 Figure 18. Generic System of Systems for a Modern NMHS.................................................... 21 Figure 19. System-of-Systems Concept of Operational Flood Forecasting by an NHS....22 Figure 20. Avalanche Risk Impact.................................................................................................23 Figure 21. Agriculture, Industry, and Services in Afghanistan, 2010/11................................ 26 Figure 22. AMD Meteorological Monitoring Network............................................................... 31 Figure 23. Precipitation Monitoring Network.............................................................................32 Figure 24. Location of the 26 AWSs Managed by MEW..........................................................33 Figure 25. Climate Monitoring Network...................................................................................... 34 Figure 26. Snow Monitoring Network...........................................................................................35 Figure 27. Agroclimate Monitoring Network.............................................................................. 36 Figure 28. Hydrological Monitoring Network.............................................................................37 Figure 29. Location of Sediment Analysis Laboratories......................................................... 39 Figure 30. Data Availability............................................................................................................ 42 Figure 31. Framework for a Hydromet Data-Sharing Platform.............................................. 43 Figure 32. Landslide Locations..................................................................................................... 48 Figure 33. Sample Three-Day Forecast Produced by AMD ................................................... 49 Figure 34. AMD System of Systems, Current Capacity............................................................ 51 CONTENTS ix Figure 35. MEW System of Systems, Current Capacity............................................................52 Figure 36. Schematic of Global Observing, Telecommunication, Data Processing, Forecasting and Dissemination System...................................................................................... 54 Figure 37. Hydromet Production Value Chain............................................................................ 55 Figure 38. Schematic of NMHS Modernization.......................................................................... 56 Figure 39. Data Flow in Hydrometeorological Services.......................................................... 56 Figure 40. Stages and Elements of Hydrometeorological Service Delivery...................... 60 Figure 41. Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems...............................................75 Figure 42. Scenario 1 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems.............................................77 Figure 43. Capabilities of AMD System of Systems................................................................. 79 Figure 44. Scenario 2 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems............................................ 81 Figure 45. Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems............................................. 84 Figure 46. Scenario 3 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems........................................... 86 List of Tables Table 1. Disaster Risk Management and Weather-Sensitive Socioeconomic Sectors Requiring Hydromet Information................................................................................... 15 Table 2. Hydromet and EW Products and Services Demanded but Not Available............................................................................................................................... 16 Table 3. Current Rainfall Monitoring Network by Basin...........................................................32 Table 4. Climate Monitoring Network by Basin......................................................................... 34 Table 5. Snow Monitoring Network by Basin..............................................................................35 Table 6. Hydrometric Monitoring Network by Basin................................................................ 38 Table 7. Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Hazards Cascading from Hydrometeorological Events......................................................................................................... 45 Table 8. Debris Flow in Afghan Districts..................................................................................... 47 Table 9. AMD System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%)................................ 51 Table 10. MEW System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%).............................52 x STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP Table 11. Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System of Systems (%).... 76 Table 12. Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System of Systems (%)....................................................................................................................................78 Table 13. Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System of Systems (%)................................................................................................................................... 80 Table 14. Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System of Systems (%)................................................................................................................................... 82 Table 15. Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for AMD System of Systems (%).............. 85 Table 16. Scenario 3 Approximate Capabilities for MEW System of Systems (%).............87 List of Photos Photo 1: Manual Recording of Synoptic and METAR Observations at Herat Station.................................................................................................................................. 31 Photo 2: Automatic Hydrologic Station...................................................................................... 38 Photo 3: Modern Forecaster Workstation in Cambodia...........................................................53 Photo 4. Flood Forecasting Center, Met Office, United Kingdom......................................... 61 Photo 5. Modern Public Weather Service Delivery in Indonesia........................................... 62  xi Abbreviations ACAA Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority AMD Afghanistan Meteorological Department ANDMA Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority ASDC Afghanistan Spatial Data Center AWS Automatic Weather Station CAP Common Alerting Protocol CBFEWS Community-Based Flood Early Warning System CDC Community Development Council CONOPS Concept of Operations DEM Digital Elevation Model DRM Disaster Risk Management DSS Decision Support System ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts EUMETSAT European Organization for Meteorological Satellites EW Early Warning EWS Early Warning Systems FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FEWS Flood Early Warning System FEWS NET Famine Early Warning System Network FFGS Flash Flood Guidance System GDP Gross Domestic Product GFCS Global Framework for Climate Services GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GFS Global Forecasting System GIS Geographic Information System GloFAS Global Flood Awareness System GMS Global System for Mobile Communication GTS Global Telecommunication System HYMEP Project for Capacity Enhancement on Hydrometeorological Information Management (JICA) ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ICT Information and Communication Technology IMMAP Information Management and Mine Action Program IRDP Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Project IT Information Technology JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging xii  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock METAR Meteorological Terminal Air Report MEW Ministry of Energy and Water MoMP Ministry of Mines and Petroleum MoPH Ministry of Public Health MPW Ministry of Public Works MoU Memorandum of Understanding MRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development MUDA Ministry of Urban Development Affairs NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NEPA National Environmental Protection Agency NFCS National Framework for Climate Services NGO Nongovernmental Organization NHS National Hydrological Service NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWP Numerical Weather Prediction O&M Operations and Maintenance ORS Operation Resolute Support PIREP Pilot Reports PWS Public Weather Service QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control QMS Quality Management System RS Remote Sensing SAsiaFFG South Asia Flash Flood Guidance System SCoWLE Supreme Council on Water, Land and Environment SIGMET Significant Meteorological Information SIGWEX Significant Weather SMS Short Message Service SOP Standard Operating Procedure SPECI Aviation Special Weather Report SMDMHA State Ministry of Disaster Management and Humanitarian Affairs SWE Snow Water Equivalent TAF Terminal Aerodrome Forecast USAID United States Agency for International Development USGS U.S. Geological Service WBG World Bank Group WMO World Meteorological Organization WRD Water Resources Department  xiii Executive Summary Country Context Hydrological and meteorological (hydromet) data collection and analysis in Afghanistan started in the late 1940s and mid-1950s, respectively. The hydrometric network expanded rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s, reaching a peak of 150 in 1980, and the meteorological network had a similar trajectory. Two decades of war, however, brought instability and insecurity that reduced public resources, capacities, collaboration, and coordination. The institutional framework governing weather, climate and hydrological (hydromet) services as well as early warning (EW) and disaster risk management (DRM) services did not escape these setbacks. In 1996, Taliban forces sacked the meteorology office, ruining equipment and destroying over 100 years of weather records. Hydroelectric production nearly ceased as turbines were destroyed, floodgates blown open, and transmission lines brought down. The civil war and its aftermath led to the degradation of traditional observation networks, prevalence of outdated and inefficient technologies, and lack of modern instruments and information and communication technology (ICT). The absence of forecasts and weather information reversed years of development gains in farming and civil aviation operations. In 1998, an Ariana Afghan Airlines flight in route from Kandahar to Kabul in bad weather crashed into a mountaintop, killing 45 people. From 1998 to 2004, a major drought forced nearly 1 million Afghans from their farms and herds into metropolitan areas, impacting half the agriculture land, killing 3 million livestock, and seriously depleting groundwater resources in Kabul and the Kabul Water Basin. Today, the country is in the process of rebuilding and reorganizing its institutions to bet- ter meet the needs of and deliver services to the Afghan people. The existing regulatory, operational, and institutional framework governing hydromet, EW, and DRM provides a basis for developing and implementing effective and efficient products and services. Two main and interrelated challenges, however, are hindering progress in this area in Afghanistan. First, Afghanistan needs to develop a comprehensive and inclusive national strategy/plan for DRM, hydromet, and EW services to better understand and appreciate these functions and to clearly delineate existing and future roles and responsibilities. Second, institutional communication and coordination needs to be (reestablished and) solidified along the entire hydromet, EW, and DRM value chain. Coordination of observation networks, forecasting, and EW services is essential to avoid duplication, to build economies of scale, and to ensure an effective supply chain in the production and delivery of services. In terms of observation, insufficient coordination among agencies could lead to two or more stations from different agencies installed, in proximity, to observe the same parameters leading xiv  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP to a significant waste of scarce resources. Similarly, the absence of proper coordination in terms of hydromet products would inevitably lead to having several but incomplete versions of the same products due to gaps in data/information inputs as well as capacity requirements. It is important to note that if two separate agencies issue simultaneous and uncoordinated products, this will create confusion for the users, with potential to lead to endangering safety of life in case of severe weather-related hazards. Strategically, the stability of Afghanistan, including that of the government and economy, can be an enabling and at the same time a limiting factor in the pace of AMD’s development. A key factor affecting stability is, of course, the security in the country which can restrict the implementation of development plans. Very little can be done within any program designed to develop the capacity of AMD, WRD-MEW, and their key stakeholders to prevent the short-term risk. However, as part of a holistic development picture, the program itself can contribute to stability through improved protection of life against hydrometeorological hazards and thus increase trust of the Afghan population that government is doing all it can to protect citizens, particularly through improved food and water security, as well as improving economic prosperity in important sectors such as aviation and land transport. Purpose of the Road Map The purpose of this analytical work is to assess the principal government ministries, depart- ments, and agencies as stakeholders and implementing partners of hydromet and early warning information and services. The driver of this Road Map is end-user needs and the articulated actions and milestones are its markers of success. Specifically, the Road Map targets government advisors and decision makers with a technical strategic framework for hydromet and early warning services and the resulting socioeconomic benefits. The expectation is for the main service providers to improve their capability and capacity to: (i) produce, manage, translate, and communicate hydromet data and information to stakeholders and end-users; (ii) assist stakeholders and end-users in accessing, interpreting, and utilizing the generated data and information; (iii) help improve the dissemination of and response to warnings for public safety and economic security; and (iv) inform planning and decision making for cost-effective investments in national climate-resilient development. It is reasonable to expect that by following the logic of the Road Map, the main service providers would be able to respond to the most pressing and common needs of stakeholders and end-users in support of disaster and climate resilience and sustainable socioeconomic development. The Road Map is not meant to provide detailed design features for the lifetime of modernization efforts. Rather, it lays out a strategic pathway with achievable milestones to narrow and eventually close the gaps between the current status of hydromet and EW service delivery, and the level of services that could be provided in Afghanistan following various levels of investment. It models three investment scenarios, based on realistic fiscal and sociopolitical possibilities, for better delivering hydromet and early warning services. In preparation of the Road Map, the authors widely consulted the literature base, including: Water4Life Draft Roadmap and Technical Assessment Report (2017); ACAA–AMD Strategic EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xv Plan (2017–21); UK Met Office Review (2012); USAID/WMO Afghanistan Early Warning System Project, Phase 1 (2017); WRD Hydrometeorological Activities and Flood Analyses (2016); WBG/GFDRR Disaster Risk Profile–Afghanistan (2017); and WBG Afghanistan Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program (2017). Proposed Modernization of Hydrometeorological and Early Warning Services The purpose of modernizing hydromet and early warning services is to reduce the socio- economic risks of weather, climate, and hydrological events, and thus to protect lives and economic/development gains. The situation in Afghanistan is complex in that there are several hydromet and DRM service providers but no early warning services. The Afghanistan Meteorology Department (AMD) of the Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority (ACAA), and the Water Resources Department–Ministry of Electricity and Water (WRD-EW) are the principal service providers. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) and the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA)1 are the main stakeholder agencies/implementing partners. Important secondary stakeholders include the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), the Ministry of Public Works (MPW), and the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD). The proposed modernization intends to help these organizations fulfil their obligations to users of hydromet information and services by strengthening institutional and technical capabilities and capacities. Generally, the government of Afghanistan’s capacity to value meteorological and hydro- logical services is limited.2 MAIL, MRRD, and NEPA informally recognize hydrology and meteorology as important in achieving their respective policy goals, but their strategic plans do not formally include WRD-MEW and AMD. The motivation of these organizations to have access to meteorological and hydrological information and advice can lead them to initiate projects that provide the information they need to conduct their business. Yet this approach can disrupt the cohesion of what should become a common information picture provided by the NMHS. A typical NMHS is comprised of a “system of systems” as shown below. This generic illustration of a weather, climate, or hydrological system of systems can be used to identify the current status of any NMHS and to visualize investments required component-by-component in each system to achieve a particular level of improvement. The complexity of each system and its subsystems varies depending on the size, level of development, and resources of an individual NMHS. But the system-of-system’s building blocks are interdependent. User requirement is an essential ingredient for the design and implementation of the entire system. The first requirement is, therefore, to have staff with the capacity to understand and operate a particular system. This Road Map employs a system-of-systems approach to 1 Since this Road Map was undertaken, the government of Afghanistan elevated ANDMA to the State Ministry of Disaster Management and Humanitarian Affairs (SMDMHA). In this report, however, it is referred to as “AMD.” 2 Met Office (2012). xvi  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP GENERIC SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS FOR A MODERN NMHS Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Public weather and Global NWP systems Severe hazard Global data system hydro services system Service systems for forecasting systems public Regional NWP systems G2G disaster National data systems management Nowcasting system service system Service systems for Limited area model national and provincial system governments Surface obs systems G2G agriculture Very-short range forecasting system service system Nowcasting system Short-range G2G water and Service systems for Radar system forecasting system power management businesses services system Hydro modeling systems Medium-range Data management forecasting system and archiving systems G2G and G2B aviation services system Long-range ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Met and Hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Note: Dark Teal: production systems; Green: delivery systems; Cyan: enabling systems; Dark Green: capacity building; Broken lines: either external or mix of internal and external systems; Solid lines: internal NMHS systems; G2G: Government to Government; G2B: Government to Business. Source: Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013). arrive at three scenarios for modernizing the Afghanistan Meteorology Department (AMD) and the Water Resources–Ministry of Electricity and Water (AMD-WRD). A substantial modernization program for any National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should include three components, namely: (i) enhancement of service delivery system; (ii) institutional strengthening and capacity building; and (iii) modernization of observation, ICT, and forecasting infrastructure.3 The development of this Road Map is in line with this principle. The activities proposed aim to strengthen the AMD and WRD- MEW’s institutional basis: to enhance a legal and regulatory framework and to develop the capacity of staff; to technically modernize the observation, ICT, data management, and hydromet forecasting infrastructure and facilities; and, most importantly, to improve the delivery of hydromet and early warning service and information to the population and weather-dependent sectors. A high-level overview of the major requirements for each component is presented below. It should be noted that in the case of Afghanistan, this collection of activities will be tailor- made to the specific needs of each institution, and the different components under each 3 Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvii category will be adjusted to reflect the actual situation at the time of implementation. It may be decided to add other areas of activity or to remove some areas from the list. ENHANCING SERVICE DELIVERY • Developing and implementing a national Strategy for Service Delivery (SSD) that draws on guidance from the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan;4 • Establishing communication channels and developing stronger relationships with hydromet users (including through the institutional mechanism between service providers and users) to specify users’ needs and priorities and gather feedback, for improving the visibility, utility, and credibility of the hydromet and EW services; • Developing EW services, including streamlining the mechanism for issuing and dissemi- nating early warnings among the main agencies responsible for EW service provision; • Enhancing public weather services (PWS) and hydrological services; • Improving the accessibility and absorbability of vulnerable communities and other criti- cal users to weather water and climate information through multiple ICT and socially relevant modes, and using local languages and simplified communication formats; • Developing a national framework for climate services (NFCS) guided by the principles of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS); • Delivering specialized services to critical weather dependent sectors, including but not limited to: • agriculture services, including an agriculture advisory service (including drought monitoring); • hydrological information services for integrated water resources management; • services to economy sectors such as energy, urban, transport; • Developing a common standard for service delivery across the main service providers; and • Enhancing services delivery through improved linkages with globa/regional partners and countries in South and central Asia, including through the South Asia Hydromet Forum engagement. INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING AND CAPACITY BUILDING • Developing a Concept of Operation (CONOPS) to guide and support the transformation of AMD and WRD-MEW in line with the strategic plans and Road Map; • Building the capacity of staff of service providers in technical and management aspects including modern observing networks; use of modern observation networks; innovative tools for weather and hydrological forecasting; application of downscaling methods for long-range forecasting and climate prediction; • Developing a national institutional framework for hydromet and EW services in Afghani- stan that clarifies the roles and responsibilities for each of the institutions involved in 4 World Meteorological Organization (2014). xviii  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP observation, data management, modeling, forecasting, and service delivery of hydromet events; • Establishing an institutional mechanism between the hydromet and EW service provid- ers, as well as between these services and the users for sharing, data, information, joint product development, and shared capacity enhancement; and • Introducing a Quality Management System (QMS) to strengthen the internal manage- ment and operational systems of the two main hydromet service providers (AMD and MEW), including human resources planning, project and contract management, and financial and procurement capacity. IMPROVING OBSERVING NETWORK, ICT INFRASTRUCTURE AND FORECASTING • Designing new, if necessary, and rehabilitating existing, meteorological and hydrological observation networks operated by AMD, WRD-MEW, MAIL, and MPW through inter- agency collaboration; and establishing an operational maintenance program;5 • Establishing data management systems; • Strengthening the ICT infrastructure; • Establishing an Early Warning System; • Introducing modern forecasting tools and methodologies, including Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) and probabilistic forecasting for weather and hydrological forecasting to produce accurate forecasts with required lead time and spatial resolution depending on end-user requirements, including those for aviation and agriculture pest and disease; • Introducing and operationalizing forecast verification methods; • Introducing downscaling techniques for long-range forecasts and climate prediction; • Introducing impact-based forecasting to cover severe hazards (e.g., floods, landslides, avalanches, droughts, and heat and cold waves); • Strengthening dissemination and communication channels and technologies; and • Establishing a national flood database. This Road Map lays out three scenarios for modernization. Each contributes in different degrees based on the time and resources available to a system capable of producing and delivering: (i) timely warnings of extreme and hazardous weather events and their potential impacts; and (ii) forecasts for operations and planning in weather and climate-sensitive economic sectors, particularly agriculture, transport (civil aviation), and water resources management. Scenario 1: Advanced Modernization. Investment to bring the capabilities for providing fit-for-purpose data, forecasts, and warning services for the safety of the public and support to develop the most important socioeconomic sectors (long term: seven years). 5 The ACCA–AMD Strategic Plan 2017–21 proposes the possible integration of meteorological stations and staff of the other ministries with AMD. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xix Scenario 2: Intermediate Modernization. Investment to achieve a modest improvement in the capabilities to provide weather and hydrological services to meet the needs of the most important user communities. For example, disaster management, agriculture, aviation, and water management (medium term: four years). Scenario 3: Technical Assistance. Provision of technical assistance for low cost–high priority activities to improve basic public services by introducing basic, affordable new technologies into and training the staff of AMD, WRD-MEW, and the main stakeholders/implementers for heightened capacities and capabilities (immediate to short term: two years). Socioeconomic Benefits of Improved Hydromet Services and Early Warning Systems In order for AMD and WRD-MEW to improve the quality, diversity, and coverage of their services, they must secure adequate and sustained funding. It is now a common practice for hydromet service providers to undertake a cost–benefit analysis to secure and optimize the use of investment resources. In all of the cases where such analyses have taken place, it has been demonstrated that the benefits of hydromet services are significantly larger than the capital and operational costs needed to modernize, produce, and deliver them. As public services, AMD and WRD-MEW are expected to deliver socioeconomic benefits to the welfare of Afghanistan society. By comparing the costs and benefits of project options over time, an understanding of the relative value of the planned investments can be generated. To optimize investment benefits, the AMD and WRD-MEW modernization must focus on delivering services using all possible mechanisms and channels to reach the end-users and ensuring that users can productively apply those services. Recent assessments have applied different methodologies as described in the authoritative publication, Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services.6 This includes further-refined, sector-specific, and benchmarking approaches. The overall economic benefits of hydromet modernization in Afghanistan was also assessed, the results of which indicate that strengthening of the hydromet and EW services will yield a benefit–cost ratio ranging from 1.45 to 12.86. It is clear that any enhancement in the capacity and capability of AMD and WRD-MEW will lead to improvements in the generation of services, and thus will lead to benefits both from reducing risks to life and property and from generating economic development. It is possible that a more specific cost–benefit analysis may, for the detailed design and implementation of projects based on the different scenarios offered in the Road Map, be necessary in the future. 6 WMO, World Bank/GFDRR and USAID (2015). xx  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP  1 1. INTRODUCTION TO GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS A fghanistan is a landlocked country situated in Himalayas and cover two-thirds of the total territory, South and Central Asia. Its 647,230 square kilo- the Southwestern Plateau, and the small (under meters (km2) are bordered in South and South- 10 percent of the territory) but fertile Northern Plains. east by the Islamic Republic of Pakistan (2,430 km), in The highest point is Mount Noshaq at 7,485 m above the west by the Islamic Republic of Iran (936 km), in the sea level (Figure 1). north by Tajikistan (1,206 km), Turkmenistan (744 km) and Uzbekistan (137 km) and in the far northeast by Small glaciers and year-round snowfields are common; China (76 km). The country is divided into 34 provinces mountain streams feed the major rivers. and subdivided into 398 districts, and the largest city, Kabul, is also the capital. The Amu Darya, Hari, Helmand, and Kabul Rivers give rise to five major river basins (Harirud-Murghab, Arid and ruggedly mountainous, more than half of Helmand, Kabul, North, and Panj-e-Amu) and to smaller Afghanistan’s territory is 2,000 meters (m) above sea rivers, tributaries, streams, and lakes (which are small level. The Hindu Kush Mountains divide the country in size and number). Salt marshes are found on the into the Central Highlands, which are part of the western border. Except for the Kabul River, which flows FIGURE 1 • Elevation Map of Afghanistan Source: www.mappery.com/map-of/Afghanistan-Elevation-Map 2 STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 2 • Major River Basins of Afghanistan Source: Favre and Monowar (2004). east into Indus River and empties into the Indian Ocean, impact on the socioeconomic fabric of Afghanistan. most water bodies flow into inland seas, swamps, or The winter snow determines the total snowpack-related salt flats. (Figure 2).7 water availability for any given year, and drought has a critical influence on this. The most important dams and reservoirs in Afghani- stan are the Kajaki Reservoir on the Helmand River, Winter precipitation tends to vary year-to-year as a the Arghandab Dam on the Argliandab Tributary of result of both natural variability and climate change. the Helmand River, the Sardeh Dam on the Ghazni During the spring, variability of air temperature over River, and the Kelagay Dam on the Darya-ye-Qondoz the mountains varies the rate of snowmelt, which Tributary of the Amu Darya River.8 relates to the propensity for flood and the long-term water availability over the summer. For example, In Afghanistan, reservoirs are very important to increase substantially warmer than average temperatures (e.g., water availability, considering seasonal variability of those of March 2010) will cause a rapid snowmelt, available water resources, whereas river flows depend increased risk of flooding, and damage to dams/ on annual rainfall and snowmelt that result in a few irrigation, and reduce long-term water availability perennial rivers and many seasonal streambeds carrying over the summer with negative effects on consistent water for only a short time. The Hindu Kush snowpack hydroelectric power generation and agriculture. Colder is arguably more important for water resources, than average temperatures result in a slower snowmelt, agriculture, and livelihoods than direct rainfall, and initial problems with downstream water availability, this is reflected in the relative importance of the two but better long-term conditions over the summer. phenomena for flooding and the long-standing require- Water management dovetails with water availability, ment for irrigation across many provinces. Changes in which is coupled to the weather and climate. The seasonal weather, even slightly, can have a substantial Kajaki Reservoir and Arghandab Dam have served to better regulate flooding after snowmelt in the spring 7 http://www.afghanistans.com/Information/RiversLakes.htm and, arguably, water shortages/drought for the two 8 Ibid. provinces in the summer with reduced frequency of 1. INTRODUCTION TO GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS 3 the river failing in its lower reaches, except during pump wells, while increasing water availability locally, extremely dry years. have reduced the overall water table within catchments and the overall availability of water. Small-scale water Due to human interventions, mostly irrigation, the management is most relevant in rural communities natural flow patterns have been disturbed, resulting dominated by small farms owned or rented by individu- in longer dry periods across the region. Irrigation uses als. Water is limited due to drought and a falling water over 99 percent of water [about 24,000 million cubic table. As the amount of water is critical in determining meters (m3)] in Helmand and Kandahar. Agricultural what crops can be cultivated, it can be a major cause regions are supplied by 300 miles of concrete lined of local, provincial, and regional disputes. Improved canals which were built to distribute reservoir water. access to safe drinking water for the urban and rural However, on average, the estimated available surface population is an important priority that is related to water per capita is 2,480 m3 a year, comparing favor- the weather and requires AMD oversight.9 ably with neighboring countries. Nearly 90 percent of all irrigation systems in Afghanistan are traditional Decades of war marred the natural topography and schemes, usually canal networks built by farmers reversed the gains in electric development. In eastern themselves and operated communally. While enabling and southeastern Afghanistan, forest covered about widespread agriculture in an otherwise arid environ- 2 million hectares (about 5 million acres), or about ment, infrastructures such as reservoirs and canals 4.5 percent of the country, before the war. The ravages are in poor shape, limited in capacity, and limited in of war, the scarcity of fuel, and the need for firewood number. Thus, it is difficult to control/store snowmelt for cooking and heating have caused rapid deforesta- for agricultural use and for water control to prevent/ tion. Prior to the civil war, less than 10 percent of the reduce flooding. The canal management system has country's hydroelectric potential had been developed. substantially collapsed, and the irrigation systems are After the war began, hydroelectric production dropped in worse repair. Of the traditional canal structures, off almost completely as turbines were destroyed, 46 percent are damaged and completely silted, this floodgates blown open, and transmission lines brought being exacerbated by climate-related desertification down. By the mid-1990s, private diesel generators across the country and the consequent increased were about all that remained of 75 years of electric frequency and intensity of dust storms. development.10 There are few surface water bodies in Afghanistan. Nearly 85 percent of Afghanistan’s territory is not Groundwater, however, is usually abundant in quater- arable. The small arable fraction, which largely is nary aquifers along all major river valleys. In their lower used for sheep and goat grazing, and the transport reaches, groundwater is frequently saline or brackish infrastructure supporting it, are highly sensitive to and not usable for drinking water or irrigation, and weather events, as are several other sectors (Figure 3). exacerbated by overconsumption in large agricultural areas. Traditional small-scale irrigation systems are Afghanistan is prone to many hydrometeorologi- village operated and usually rely on diverting the cal hazards that have adversely affected the lives, direction of local streams. Larger informal operations property, and livelihoods of the Afghan people for are required for the plains and are typically a united centuries. The most devastating hazards in terms of effort between villages, coordinated by each village’s frequency, destruction, and human loss include floods, water master. This can mean that water access is flash floods, droughts, landslides, avalanches, and inequitable, and variable meteorological conditions extreme heat and cold. Wars and civil conflicts have can exacerbate or even create tension within the increased the vulnerability of the Afghan people to rural community. natural disasters. Traditional irrigation methods (mostly the flooding of fields) are wasteful. Resultant inefficiency again increases the sensitivity of both the local populace and agricultural sector to marked variations in weather and 9 Met Office (2012). seasonality. The increased implementation of diesel 10 www.afghanistans.com/Information/Climate.htm 4 STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 3 • Economic Activity and Land Use in Afghanistan Source: Met Office (2012). Note: Agricultural activity is highly correlated to river valleys and associated irrigation systems (shown in pink). Right: Aerial photograph over the Helmand River Basin, showing a ribbon of agricultural land mirroring the Arghandab River course and irrigation system amidst arid desert.  5 2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS A fghanistan has a typical inland climate, arid and Temperatures can range widely in a single day, from semiarid steppe with hot summers and cold freezing conditions at dawn to the upper 30s°C at winters. The lower parts of the country have a 12 noon. Since 1960, the average annual number of hot semiarid or desert climate. Along the border with Iran days and nights has increased by almost 7 percent, and hot, dry, dusty winds are among the most unpleasant the average annual number of cold days and nights features of the summer weather. Afghanistan has clearly has decreased by approximately 3 percent.11 Mean defined seasons: summers are hot, and winters can annual temperature variation is expected to increase be very harsh, particularly in the mountains. Summer by 1.1–2.0°C by 2035. temperatures as high as 49 degrees Celsius (°C) have been recorded in the northern valleys. Midwinter temperatures as low as –20°C are common in the Hindu Kush region. The climate in the highlands varies with elevation (Figure 4). 11 Deltares (2016). FIGURE 4 • Köppen Climate Classification Zones of Afghanistan Source: Derived from: Peel et al. (2007). 6 STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 5 • Average Monthly Temperature and Rainfall, Series 1901–2015 80 32 Temperature (°C) Rainfall (mm) 40 16 0 0 n b ar r ay n l g p t v c Ju Ap Oc De No Ja Ju Au Fe Se M M Temperature Rainfall Source: World Bank Group Climate Change Portal. Accessed August 2018. http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/ Weather is the most volatile during the winter and FIGURE 6 • Spatial Variability of Mean Annual spring, and most of the precipitation falls between Precipitation October and April (Figure 4). The deserts receive less than 100 millimeters (mm) of rain a year, whereas the mountains receive more than 1,000 mm of precipitation, mostly as snow. Frontal winds sweeping in from the west may bring large sandstorms or dust storms, while the strong solar heating of the ground raises large local whirlwinds. Some areas become isolated with the onset of autumn’s first snowfall and remain isolated until the spring thaw. In the most severe cases, this can mean up to and beyond six months a year of isolation. The influence of the Mediterranean Sea reaches all Source: Met Office (2012). the way to Afghanistan, sending depressions that bring the winter precipitation. The high mountains Afghanistan’s relatively dry climate further accentu- to the south and east shield Afghanistan from the ates the significance of its rivers for people’s survival summer rains brought to India and parts of Pakistan according to the International Centre for Integrated by the southwest monsoon.  Almost no rain falls Mountain Development (ICIMOD). from June to October. Sunshine ranges from six to seven hours a day in winter to as much as twelve to Water availability in Afghanistan is unequally distributed thirteen in summer.12 over time and space (Figure 5 and Figure 6). While some areas have an abundance of water, others are drier. The snow and glaciers in the Hindu Kush and Himalaya Long periods of draught can be followed by intense Mountains are a major source of freshwater. They rainfall with catastrophic consequences. This causes provide the basis for livelihoods for an estimated the country to suffer from two rather contrary threats: 210 million people, including those in Afghanistan. water shortages, often amounting to serious drought, and water excess, causing frequent destructive floods.13 12 Afghanistan Committee (Accessed August 2018). www.afghanistan.no 13 Beekma and Fiddes (2014). 2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS 7 Since 1960, the average rainfall in Afghanistan has FIGURE 7 • Flash Flood Susceptibility Index declined by an average of 2 percent per month per decade.14 Given the projections of rainfall and average temperatures, the hydrologic impact is expected to result in a drop of water resource reserves leading to: (i) reduced flows of major rivers due to localized and periodic drought; and (ii) exacerbation of the risk of a shortage of drinking water by 2025. The main hydrometeorological risks are floods, drought, landslides, and avalanches. The high altitudes, poor soil, harsh climate, and political turmoil amplify the impact of variances in temperature and precipitation, negatively affecting both agricultural productivity and road conditions for access to markets. Afghanistan consistently ranks high on the Global Climate Risk Source: Deltares (2016). Note: Average per administrative unit (districts), median values. Index, and each year weather-related hazards affect an estimated 500,000. exposed to flooding (200,000–300,000 annually Floods and flash floods are the most destructive in 2050), and more assets will be at risk of dam- weather-related hazard.15 Snowpack melt can cause age (US$300–US$700  million annually in 2050). the five major river basins to flood and can damage Afghanistan’s rate of flood deaths compared to the dams and irrigation channels. This seasonal riverine population’s flood exposure is one of the highest in the flooding can be exacerbated by warmer than average world. Heavy rains in 2014 caused extensive flooding temperatures moving across the Hindu Kush in the and trigged landslides in the province of Badakhshan spring that result in a faster snowmelt. It usually over- that killed over 350 people. Recurrent floods have whelms infrastructure, including water management not only become violent, but also cause soil erosion. systems. In contrast, storms chiefly in the winter and Flooding also impacts the spread of malaria and other spring produce intense rainfall and relatively local- waterborne diseases. ized flash floods that affect individual provinces. The intensity and frequency of the rainfall events and the Avalanches are Afghanistan’s third deadliest natural size of the watershed characterize the type of flood. hazard, after earthquakes and floods. Strong snowfall Afghanistan’s mountainous terrain and steep valleys and the resulting avalanches in Afghanistan’s many mean many areas are prone to flash flooding, especially mountainous regions cause significant loss of life and in the central and northeast regions. Figure 7 shows damage to infrastructure, property, and livestock. the Flash Flood Susceptibility Index per administra- Avalanches kill dozens of people each year, and in 2015 tive unit (districts), as developed by an independent severe snowfalls led to avalanches which killed almost institute for applied research in the field of water and 300 people. Fifteen percent of Afghanistan’s road subsurface, Deltares (green being the lowest and red network is exposed to avalanches, and roads through the highest). mountain passes are frequently closed. Afghanistan’s avalanches are challenging to model due to variables Deltares’ analysis of Afghanistan’s flood impact yields of topography, terrain morphology, and snow proper- an estimated annual number of affected persons at ties. Accurate avalanche prediction also requires the over 100,000 and flood damages of US$53 million. collection of a continuous time series of weather and Based on hazard projections of Afghanistan’s future climate data, with decades of historical data to compare climate, Deltares forecasts that future flood risk will against, which Afghanistan unfortunately lacks. Ava- increase substantially. More of the population will be lanches occur in Afghanistan’s central and northeastern provinces. Overall, 2,700–35,000 people are at risk 14 Deltares (2016). of death due to snow avalanches, with 1,100–11,200 15 Met Office (2012). at risk of injury. Of Afghanistan’s current population, 8 STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 8 • Afghanistan 100-Year Avalanche FIGURE 9 • Agricultural Drought Risk, Current Scenario Conditions Source: Deltares (2016). Note: Orange: provinces with a record of avalanche events; mapped occurrence of snow water equivalency values with sufficient annual Source: Deltares (2016). snowfall for a 100-year avalanche scenario. Note: Expected annual water shortage (%). 8 percent is potentially exposed to avalanches under the 100-year avalanche scenario (Figure 8). FIGURE 10 • Agricultural Drought Risk, 2050 Conditions Thunderstorms are generally localized events in Afghanistan, affecting the country on the provincial and district scale during the winter and spring (though some do occur infrequently over the summer and autumn). Thunderstorms have the potential to destroy or disrupt key nodes of an electricity supply network. Drought is a major risk in Afghanistan, and droughts have been recorded in every part of the country. Rainfall is scarce and unpredictable, and a small snowpack resulting from a dry winter can result in low reservoir levels, dry streams, and shortages of potable and irrigation water and can lead to food shortages and socioeconomic problems (the case in 2017/18). Growing urban and rural population will further stress water supply. A drought in 1970/71 affected nearly the Source: Deltares (2016). entire country and caused displacement of people and Note: Expected annual water shortage (%). food shortages. A major drought from 1999 to 2004 affected millions and forced entire villages to abandon their lands and flee to cities as refugees. Groundwater and migration from the affected areas (mainly in the levels in Kabul and elsewhere in the basin are still northern regions) has triggered the fear of a situation recovering. Drought conditions prevailed for almost similar to the 1999–2004 drought, with the ensuing five years, resulting in the loss of more than 50 percent social problems. The immediate economic impact of of the pasture land, affecting approximately 3 million droughts is difficult to determine. There is a time lag livestock, and necessitating humanitarian assistance for between meteorological drought and drought losses due almost 1 million Afghans. The threat of displacement to buffers such as reservoirs, farmers’ financial reserves, and groundwater reserves (Figure 9 and Figure 10). 2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS 9 FIGURE 11 • Susceptibility Map for Cover Material material landslides in rapid evolution (e.g., debris flows Landslides in Rapid Evolution and mudflows). Afghanistan’s northeast and central provinces are most at-risk to landslides (Figure 11). Other hazards include plant diseases and pests (e.g., Baluchistan melon fly, Colorado potato beetle, and Moroccan locust), which are a major source of annual crop losses. About 80 percent of Afghanistan’s popu- lation relies on agriculture for food and income, and pests are a key contributor to food insecurity. Average air quality (e.g., particulate matter) in the region is poorer than the global baseline, and the weather can cause significant variability across Afghanistan due to pollution in urban areas and dust storms in rural areas. A 2005/06 study concluded that 60 percent of the Source: Deltares (2016). population is exposed to elevated concentrations of particulate matter (fine anthropogenic dust), nitrous oxide, and sulphur dioxide, which cause an estimated Landslides and mudflows occur frequently in Afghani- excess in annual mortality of 2,000 people.16 stan, but many are low-impact events or highly localized and are not comprehensively indexed. Afghanistan experiences three types of landslides: bedrock land- slides in slow evolution, bedrock landslides in rapid evolution (often induced by earthquakes), and cover 16 Met Office (2012).  11 3. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HYDROMET HAZARDS A fghanistan is a low-income country with a frequent loss of lives, livelihoods, and property. Since very high-risk profile.17 The country’s low 1980, hydromet-related disasters have affected 9 million level of socioeconomic development makes it people, causing over 20,000 fatalities19 and making extremely vulnerable to disaster, with several notable Afghanistan the second-deadliest developing country contributing factors. Decades of disasters have under- for hydromet hazards. mined the country’s coping mechanisms and protective capacity; this increases the likelihood that hazards turn Geophysical and weather-related events were respon- into disasters with large humanitarian and economic sible for half of all deaths in Afghanistan between 1980 consequences. While natural hazards and disasters do and 2015: for every 1 million inhabitants, 1,150 died.20 not necessarily cause conflict in and of themselves, While earthquakes caused the highest loss of life (9,236) natural disasters can exacerbate the challenges people from 1970 to 2012, hydromet disasters had significant already face in fragile states, create new risks, and add impacts. Drought impacted approximately two in three stress to an already weakened governance system Afghans (6.5 million of 9.3 million total population) and while fueling grievances.18 flooding caused about two-thirds of all economic dam- ages (US$396 million of US$597 million total losses).21 The country is highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards due to its geographical location and Figure 12 illustrates the casualties and losses due to years of environmental degradation, resulting in the natural disasters by province. Floods are the most FIGURE 12 • Overview of Natural Disasters by Province, 2013 AFGHANISTAN: Overview of Natural Disasters Natural disaster incidents as recorded by OCHA Field Offices and IOM from 1 January to 30 June 2013 Number of Individuals Affected Number of Natural Disaster Incidents by Natural Disasters by District and Province Badakhshan Badakhshan Jawzjan Jawzjan Balkh Balkh Takhar Kunduz 1 2 6 24 27 Takhar 30 Kunduz 2 Faryab Faryab Samangan 2 2 2 8 Samangan 8 Nuristan 3 Badghis Sari Pul Baghlan Panjsher Baghlan Badghis Sari Pul 10 4 Kapisa 4 Kunar 4 Pnj. Nrstn. 6 Kn. Bamyan 2 10 21 Bamyan 9 16 7 Parwan 12 23 Prw. 22 55 Hirat Maydan Kabul Laghman Hirat Myd. Wr. Kabl. L. 7 3 10 15 Wardak 116 20 Nng. 76 11 Nangarhar 10 Daykundi 4 Logar Daykundi 22 Ghor Ghor 2 Ghazni 3 L. Pakty. Paktya Khost Ghazni 3 4 3 3 3 K. Incidents by District Affected Individuals 1 1-5 Uruzgan By Province 2 Uruzgan Farah Zabul 9 Farah 10 6 - 25 1 - 1,000 Zabul 1 1 Paktika Paktika 1,001 - 5,000 # Incidents by Province 5,001 - 15,000 Nimroz Kandahar Nimroz Kandahar Balkh (36,548); Nangahar (41,902) Hilmand Hilmand 1 7 6 # Afghans Killed or Injured 1 144 Districts affected Notes: 1) Natural disaster events include avalanches, extreme Number of Houses Damaged or Destroyed winter conditions, flooding, heavy rainfall, landslides & mudflows, and extreme weather (sandstorms, hail, wind, by Province etc) as recorded by OCHA field offices and IOM Afghanistan Humanitarian Assistance Database (HADB). Badakhshan Summary of Natural Disaster Events 2) A natural disaster incident is defined as an event that has affected (i.e. impacted) Afghans, who may or may not Jawzjan Balkh 1 Kn. Takhar 33 in 2013 (January to June) by Type require humanitarian assistance. 84 3) HADB information is used as a main reference and 1,631 22 supplemented by OCHA Field Office reports for those Faryab Sari Pul 4 140,000 280 21,000 incidents where information is not available from the HADB. OCHA information includes assessment figures from OCHA, 190 58 Samangan 20 Affected Afghans Killed Houses Damaged ANDMA, Red Crescent Societies, national NGOs, Baghlan Nrstn. international NGOs, and ERM. Badghis Pn. 19 16 Individuals or Injured or Destroyed 4) The number of affected Afghans and houses damaged or 34 Kn. destroyed are based on the reports received. These figures Bamyan 1 26 23 Prw. 59 384 may change as updates are received. Hirat Kabl. L. 3% 7% 3% Maydan Wardk. 54 253 Nng. 1,723 29% 35% 5 35% 161 0 100 200 Km Ghor L. 1% 67% 51% 61% Daykundi Ghazni 7% 1% Paktya 2 10 Houses Damaged Date Printed: 11 July 2013 03:55 PM K. 20 Uruzgan By Province Data Source(s): Farah AGCHO 5 No Houses Damaged Natural disaster information: OCHA Field Offices and IOM Zabul Paktika Afghanistan Humanitarian Assistance Database (HADB) 1 - 100 June 2 1 Projection/Datum: Geographic/WGS-84 101 - 1,000 May 6 1 Disclaimers: Nimroz Hilmand Kandahar The designations employed and the presentation of material on this 1,001 - 4,054 April 22 11 map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the 22 10 1) The flood category part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal # Houses Destroyed March 11 2 1 includes both flash floods status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or and longer duration flooding. concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. February 13 10 6 2) The landslide category Doc Name: Note: Damaged house category includes the also includes mud flows. Afg_NaturalDisasters2013_OCHA_IOM_A3_201307JUL08 number of damaged houses as recorded by January 11 3) An 'event' is defined by OCHA field offices and the number of 'Severely disaster type and date. Feedback: ocha.imu.afg@gmail.com Damaged Houses' only as recorded by IOM. 0 10 20 30 Website: http://afg.humanitarianresponse.info Source: OCHA HumanitarianResponse.Info. (Accessed August 2018). 19 GFDRR (2017). 17 Kellett and Caravani (2013). 20 GFDRR (2017). 18 GFDRR (2017). 21 EM-DAT. Accessed August 2018. 12  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP frequent natural hazards, historically, causing aver- FIGURE 13 • Afghanistan Risk Summary age annual damages of US$54 million; large flood episodes can cause over US$500 million in damages. Earthquakes have caused the highest fatalities histori- cally; since 1980 more than 10,000 people have been killed due to earthquakes. Droughts have affected 6.5  million people since 2000. An extreme drought could cause an estimated US$3 billion in agricultural losses and lead to severe food shortages across the country. Three million people are exposed to very high or high landslide hazard risk, and 2 million people are exposed to avalanches (Figure 13). Climate change also poses a threat to Afghanistan’s natural resources. The vast majority of Afghans (approx- imately 80 percent) depend on natural resources for their livelihoods. Climate change and natural disasters, therefore, significantly impact growth prospects. The most obvious is the impacts of floods and droughts on agricultural productivity and the transport network supporting the agriculture sector. Source: GFDRR (2017). Over the last 20 years, Afghanistan has received only US$22 million in disaster risk reduction funding, while having one the highest mortality risk ratings in the to reduce disaster risk. In 2010 alone, more than world (Figure 14). Clearly, aid financing in the country US$6.7 billion was spent in Afghanistan in total aid has had its challenges over these two decades, with just by donors reporting to the OECD Development conflict and a testing environment for aid actors, but Assistance Committee.22 surely in the years since 2001 and with the subsequent state-building efforts, more could have been set aside 22 Kellett and Caravani (2013). 3. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HYDROMET HAZARDS 13 FIGURE 14 • Financing for Disaster Risk Reduction in the Context of the Mortality Risk Index, 1991–2010 (volumes, US$ millions) Multiple Mortality Risk Index Bangladesh 9 Myanmar India China Indonesia Colombia Iran 8 Afghanistan Guatemala Peru Philippines Pakistan Romania Costa Rica 7 Algeria Dominican Republic Turkey Congo, Dem Rep. Albania Viet Nam El Salvador Ecuador Chile 6 Sierra Leone Ethiopia Cambodia Uganda Haiti Papua New Guinea Mexico Nepal Argentina 5 Malawi Kenya Zimbabwe Sri Lanka Brazil Cameroon Morocco Lebanon 4 Yemen Benin Tunisia Eritrea Burkina Faso Zambia Niger South Africa Trinidad and Tobago Jordan 3 Palestinian Occ. Territories 2 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Total DRR  15 4. ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS FOR WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES N ational Meteorological and Hydrological Services The result of a quick hydromet end-user survey (NMHSs) are public agencies mandated to shows that the following are the most demanded provide public meteorological and hydrological hydrometeorological (hydromet) data, products, and information and warning services, although some may information. Data include snow, rain, temperature, also provide commercial services. Similarly, National relative humidity, evaporation, river stage/discharge, Hydrological Services (NHSs) are national public agen- and satellite data. Products and information include cies mandated to provide basic hydrological information weather forecasts, climate change projections, flood and warning services to the government, the public, forecasts, hydromet-related early warnings, drought and the private sector, in support of protecting lives prediction, flood hazard maps, and extreme tem- and livelihoods. NHSs aim to fulfil the state and public perature prediction. In addition, avalanche forecasts, need for robust water monitoring, data management avalanche hazard maps, landslide forecasts, landslide and prediction, providing authoritative and action- hazard maps, pest and disease outbreak maps, deserti- able information on hydrometeorological trends and fication hazard maps, lightning advisory, forest fire extremes. NHSs also deliver socioeconomic benefits advisory, and some aviation weather services (e.g., through improved water resources management and Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET) and disaster risk management. Significant Weather (SIGWEX) reports) are demanded but currently not available (Table 2). Table 1 captures the socioeconomic sectors whose outputs are sensitive to weather and climate conditions. TABLE 1 • Disaster Risk Management and Weather-Sensitive Socioeconomic Sectors Requiring Hydromet Information 1. Disaster risk management (floods, avalanches, landslides, drought, 12. Groundwater management extreme temperatures, pest and disease outbreaks) 13. Health 2. Water resources management 14. Insurance 3. Irrigated agriculture 15. Land transportation 4. Rain-fed agriculture 16. Aviation 5. Climate resilience and adaptation 17. Construction 6. Energy planning, development, and management 18. Land use and planning 7. Watershed management 19. Media 8. Environment management 20. Education 9. Surface water quality management and water pollution control 21. Mining 10. Desertification 22. Regional and international cooperation 11. Forestry 23. Research and development Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). 16  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP TABLE 2 • Hydromet and EW Products and Services Demanded but Not Available23 1. Early warning system and services 9. Landslide hazard maps 2. Flood forecasts 10. Extreme temperature hazard information 3. Flood hazard maps 11. Pest and disease outbreak maps 4. Drought forecasts 12. Desertification hazard maps 5. Drought hazard maps 13. Lightning advisory 6. Avalanche forecasts 14. Forest fire advisory 7. Avalanche hazard maps 15. SIGMET reports 8. Landslide forecasts 16. SIGWEX charts Three-quarters of respondents were not satisfied with respective application areas, or how to apply such the current services/data provision. This low level of information. Moreover, there is no system/platform satisfaction can be attributed largely to two factors: for users to communicate their needs to the hydromet agencies (i.e., service providers). 23 • The existing hydromet system does not provide the required data to produce user-needed products The overall level of user satisfaction with the data and and services. products needs to be significantly improved. • Hydomet agencies have low capacity to generate products and to deliver services. Most of the hydromet end-users do not fully under- stand what data and information they need for their 23 Ibid.  17 5. INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS 5.1 A Brief History of the than six hours lead time (nowcasting), which are particularly important for quick onset severe hazards Afghanistan Meteorological such as flash floods. AMD has no ability to produce Department seasonal outlooks, which are intrinsic to agriculture and water resources management planning and to climate projection. The current number of forecasters Meteorology has been a part of the Afghan govern- is too low and their capability insufficient to provide ment for more than six decades. The Afghanistan operational, 24/7 forecasting services, and to develop Meteorological Authority was established in 1955 and test new products. In Afghanistan, at least five under the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation. observers and a team leader are required to run a 24/7 With the creation of the Afghanistan Civil Aviation shift at international airports, while for forecasting Authority (ACAA) in 2013, the name was changed to and guidance, a team of one manager and at least ten the Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD), forecasters is required to run two 24/7 shifts at the and it functions as part of the ACAA. AMD is one of AMD headquarters. the most critical and important departments of ACAA and is responsible for the provision of nationwide AMD has 140 staff, 75 of whom work in remote locations meteorological services, including: monitoring weather in 28 stations. Three of the staff have a master’s degree, and collecting data; providing forecasts and early warn- 28 have a bachelor’s degree, 33 have a two-year degree ings; archiving and providing climate data; providing and 37 have a technical school degree. The staff is distrib- public weather services; and providing meteorological uted as follows: 33 forecasters at the forecast division in services for agriculture and transportation (including Kabul, 15 at the executive management, 9 at the research civil aviation). division, 22 at the installation division, 9 at observation network division, and 52 in stations. Four forecasters The intervening war years, however, delivered setbacks and six observers in Hamid Karzai International Airport to meteorological services in the country. The Taliban are working parallel with Operation Resolute Support24 believe weather forecasting is a form of sorcery and staff to provide aviation meteorology services, but in ban it; in 1996, Taliban forces sacked the meteorology other international airports NATO-RS Met units cover office, ruining equipment and destroying over 100 years the needs. By 2021, AMD plans to have 92 observers, of weather records. The civil war and its aftermath led 24 forecasters, 14 maintenance and installation techni- to degradation of traditional observation networks, cians, 32 aviation observers, 18 aviation forecasters, 6 IT prevalence of outdated and inefficient technologies, specialists, and 10 staff for external relations, finance, and lack of modern instruments and ICT. The absence agrometeorology, and hydrometeorology. of forecasts and weather information reversed years of development gains in farming and civil aviation operations. 24 Operation Resolute Support is a NATO-led, noncombat mission As a result, AMD makes limited use of numerical weather to train, advise, and assist the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). It was launched on January 1, 2015, and prediction (NWP), which is the forecasting tool widely currently comprises around 16,000 personnel from 41 NATO allies used by National Meteorological and Hydrological and partners. NATO-RS operates with one “hub” (Kabul/Bagram) and four “spokes” (Mazar-e-Sharif in the north, Herat in the west, Services (NMHSs) to produce basic public forecasts. Kandahar in the south, and Laghman in the east). https://rs.nato It has no technical means to run forecasts with less .int/about-us/mission.aspx 18  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 15 • Proposed Structure of Afghanistan Meteorological Department Director of AMD Observation Data Forecasting Research Meteorological Administration Remote Offices Branch Processing Branch Branch Instruments Branch Branch and Tele- Branch Communication Branch Synopic IT and Tele- Weather Hydrometeorology Operation and International Aeronautical Observation Communication Analyses and Division Maintenance Relations Meteorology Division Division Forecasting Division Division Division Aeronautical Data Nowcasting Climate Calibration Human Remote Meteorology Processing and Division Division Division Resources Meteorology Observation Management Division Offices Division Division Division Agricultural Finance Meteorology Division Division Press and Public Relations Division Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016a). AMD’s current five branches are: Executive Manage- aligned with the WMO standards, both for strength- ment, Forecasting, Observation Network, Meteorology ening hydrometeorological disaster resilience of the Research and Installation. The proposed structure of country and answering the national and international AMD Under the ACAA-AMD Strategic Plan 2017–21, stakeholder needs.” there would be seven branches: Observation, Data Processing and Telecommunication, Forecasting, The Mission of AMD is stated as: “Providing nationwide Research, Meteorological Instruments, Remote Offices meteorological services; making weather observations; and Administration (Figure 15). providing forecasts and early warnings; providing clima- tological data, archive data; communicating these to the There is no legislative act regulating meteorology. public; providing meteorological needs of Afghanistan According to the ACAA-AMD Strategic Plan 2017–21, for agriculture, transportation, civil aviation for decision AMD is Afghanistan’s only recognized, responsible, and makers, user communities, and all related sectors.” authorized agency for the provision of the meteoro- logical operations, services, and information. However, AMD’s mandate is to provide observational data government agencies operate parallel in situ observa- and forecast products to support all activities in the tion networks and disseminate information. country—among others, transportation (including civil aviation), agriculture, business, urban and rural life, The same Strategic Plan states the Vision of AMD as: and social and cultural activities. Further, the National “Covering Afghanistan’s public weather service needs Flood Policy and Strategy (2011) designates AMD as by establishing a competent meteorology service the sole agency responsible for flash flood forecasting. 5. INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS 19 The improvement of AMD meteorological services Rehabilitation Project and the subsequent Irrigation is mainly supported by a project-based budget. The Restoration and Development Project, hydrological ACAA budget increased from US$40 million in 2016 monitoring has been strengthened since 2008 (Figure to US$60 million in 2017 and is expected to increase 16). Today, water yearbooks of 148 stations are avail- in the coming years if aviation meteorological services able at the Water Resources Management Department improve. The ACAA budget for 2018 is US$100 million, (WRD) of the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW). dedicated mainly to developing infrastructure (with salaries representing around US$6 million). No specific MEW in its present form was established in December data have been provided about the AMD annual budget. 2004, with the splitting of responsibilities previously Operating and maintenance (O&M) costs pose a major held by the Ministry of Irrigation, Water Resources concern for the AMD’s sustainability. Aeronautical and Environment and the merging of energy and meteorological services are expected to provide a water to form the Ministry of Energy and Water. The substantive income for AMD, and potentially could Water Law of Afghanistan (2009) and Water Resource finance O&M expenses. Currently, these are borne by Management Strategy (2007) define the ministry’s the ACAA national budget. roles, responsibilities, and vision and designate it as the country’s National Hydrological Service (see Section 6.1.4). 5.2 A Brief History WRD has recruited young university graduates, help- of the Water Resources ing to establish a strong nucleus of well-educated Management Department staff for data management, analysis, and modeling. In addition, WRD has sent some of the new recruits for post-graduate degrees in hydrology, water resources, Hydrological data collection and analysis started in and climate change. According to WRD’s organizational Afghanistan in 1946 with the installation of hydrometric chart (Figure 17), there are three divisions: hydrology, stations in Helmand River Basin. The hydrometric meteorology, and flood and drought forecasting. The network expanded rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s, organizational chart does not show the subunits, if any, reaching a peak of 150 in 1980. Network operations in each division. WRD is planning a restructuring in the stopped between the late 1980s and 2003. With the near future to reflect the evolving business priorities. support of the World Bank Emergency Irrigation FIGURE 16 • Historical Trend for Hydrometric Active Stations in Afghanistan Hydrometric Monitoring Stations (MEW) 160 150 140 128 127 129 127 125 120 116 106 Number of Stations 100 80 65 60 40 29 20 7 2 0 0 2 0 1946 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). 20  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 17 • Organizational Structure of the Water Resources Department Water Resources Department Flood and Drought Hydrology Division Meteorology Division Forecasting Division Hydrology Hydrometery Modeling Hydrogeology Meteorology Snow Survey Section Section Section Section Section Section WRD Data Analysis Team Kabul River North River Panj-e-Amo Hartrud Murghab Helmand Basin Basin River Basin River Basin River Basin Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b). Data for the WRD-MEW annual budget is not directly planning to install 22 of these stations in 2018/19 and available, but budget information for associated the rest as/when the security situation improves. projects is available. In 2011, the World Bank Group approved a US$97.8 million grant for the Irrigation WRD-MEW has 409 staff distributed among five river Rehabilitation and Development Project (IRDP) to basins, mainly composed of technical field observers support the government of Afghanistan's continuing and guards for the hydrological, AWS, and snow efforts to rehabilitate irrigation systems across the stations. Only four of the 41 hydrologists have an country, with the aim of increasing agricultural pro- educational background in hydrology; the remaining duction. The grant had a hydromet component worth 37 acquired their skills and knowledge on the job. The US$8.2 million, mainly for supporting the modernization same applies to the five climatologists. WRD’s main of observation equipment. In 2016, the World Bank office in Kabul has 57 staff covering 11 job categories, Group approved additional financing and revamped of which 34 are technicians, hydrologists, or manag- the hydromet component (US$28.9 million) to focus ers. The six Water Quality Laboratory employees more on developing and delivering services. are only involved in sediment sampling, testing, and analysis. IRDP is currently financing O&M, for which WRD-MEW operates 125 hydrological stations and a formal agreement was signed with the equipment 56 automatic weather stations (AWSs), of which 30 sta- vendor. But project-financed O&M poses a challenge tions also have snow-monitoring capability. Discussions for WRD-MEW’s sustainability. Improved hydropower are ongoing to transfer the 26 non–snow-monitoring generation is expected to provide substantial income AWSs to AMD (and to include WRD technical support for WRD-MEW, and potentially could finance hydromet during the transfer). Security concerns prevented WRD O&M services and expedite training of their staff to from installing 47 new hydrological stations, but it is reduce O&M costs.  21 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS M odernizing a National Meteorological and two organizations. A typical NMHS is comprised of a Hydrological Service (NMHS) and a National “system of systems” as shown in Figure 18. This generic Hydrological Service (NHS) is highly complex illustration of a weather, climate, or hydrological system and costly. In Afghanistan, the division of responsibilities of systems can be used to identify the current status (i.e., AMD is responsible for flash flood forecasting and of any NMHS and to visualize investments required WRD-MEW is responsible for all other water-related component-by-component in each system to achieve services and studies and is the NHS) compounds the a particular level of improvement. The complexity of complexity. Therefore, a structured and long-term plan each system and its subsystems varies depending on based on the needs of the public and the end-user the size, level of development, and resources of an community is highly recommended. individual NMHS. The first step in the development of such a plan is The system-of-system’s building blocks are inter- to study and analyze the systems comprising the dependent. The first requirement is staff with the FIGURE 18 • Generic System of Systems for a Modern NMHS Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Public weather and Global data system Global NWP systems Severe hazard hydro services system Service systems for forecasting systems public G2G disaster National data systems management Regional NWP systems Nowcasting system service system Service systems for national and provincial Limited area model governments Surface obs systems G2G agriculture system Very short-range forecasting system service system Nowcasting system Short-range G2G water and Service systems for Radar system forecasting system power management businesses services system Hydro modeling systems Medium-range Data management forecasting system and archiving systems G2G and G2B aviation Long-range services system ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Met and hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). Note: Dark Teal: production systems; Green: delivery systems; Cyan: enabling systems; Dark Green: capacity building (internal and external); Broken boxes: either external or mix of internal and external systems; Solid boxes: internal NMHS systems; G2G: Government to Government; G2B: Government to Business. 22  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 19 • System-of-Systems Concept of Operational Flood Forecasting by an NHS Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Public hydrological Global data system Global NWP systems Severe hydro hazard services system Service systems for forecasting systems public G2G disaster National data systems Nowcasting system / management Regional NWP systems flash flood guidance service system Service systems for national and provincial Surface obs systems Limited area model governments system Very short-range flood G2G agriculture forecasting system service system Hydro modeling systems Short-range flood G2G water and power management Service systems for Radar system forecasting system services system businesses Medium-range flood Data management forecasting system and archiving systems Long-range flood ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). capacity to understand and operate a particular system. countries, the two agencies work closely together, This Road Map employs a system-of-systems approach sometimes colocated in one or the other organization to arrive at three possible scenarios for modernizing to produce flood forecasts and warnings. In such cases, AMD and WRD-MEW. cross-training of meteorologists and hydrologists in each other’s field of expertise is a common practice. The operational system of an NHS for the production of flood forecasts is basically similar to that of a NMHS in that production and delivery systems need to be 6.1 Service Delivery Systems in place supported by quality management and ICT systems, with a fundamental basic block of capacity building systems. Figure 19 presents the system-of- A pervasive culture shift is needed for Afghanistan’s systems concept within WRD-MEW. Subtle differences hydromet and early warning services. To this end, a between an NMHS and an NHS responsible for flood matrix was devised to evaluate the country’s current forecasting are in the access to certain observations service delivery capacity. It assesses institutional data or modeling capabilities. In most countries where capacity on four levels: none, low, medium, and high. responsibilities for weather and flood forecasting reside in different organizations, access to critical data such There is no institutional capacity to analyze, forecast, as radar data are granted to the agency responsible for and develop warning messages for floods and flash flood forecasting. Similarly, meteorological forecasts floods, landslides, avalanches, and pest and disease based on global, regional, and locally run models control. There is low to medium capacity to observe, provide an input to flood forecasting models. These detect, and monitor these hazards, given the current subtleties are illustrated in Figure 20 by the solid or network of observing stations. As for heat and cold broken lines for various subsystems. In a number of waves and drought, institutional abilities range from 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 23 FIGURE 20 • Avalanche Risk Impact Sources: Afghanistan Spatial Data Center; Water for Life Solutions (2017). Note: Example of people at risk for avalanche threat in Afghanistan for April 22, 2017, at 11:30 pm local time, based on the (then) current snow conditions. nonexistent for analysis, forecasting, and developing their own operation, or from other sources. Another warning messages to medium for observation, detec- initiative, the USAID-funded Afghanistan Spatial Data tion, and monitoring. Current capacities for drought Center, provides an online portal with the following were assessed as low for all early warning stages, information: population estimates at the village level attributable primarily to FEWS NET25 and its contribu- for flood and avalanche risk; Global System for Mobile tion to periodic updates; this information is publicly Communication (GSM) coverage; accessibility to the available. The FEWS NET information, however, is too nearest hospitals; and parameters for flood and flash general and covers too large of a geographical area to flood risks, snow cover and depth, and earthquakes. be useful. More location specific and higher resolution information is needed to allow better planning and Figure 20 presents an example of the product the decision making [by the Afghanistan National Disaster Afghanistan Spatial Data Center (ASDC) portal pro- Management Authority (ADMA)]. vides, in this case, the number of people who were at risk for avalanche threat in April 2017. Community-level efforts in establishing early warning systems and services or assessing disaster risk exist. The portal requires registration, and the forecasts are For example, the ICIMOD’s Community-Based Flood based on uncalibrated models, which make the results Early Warning System (CBFEWS) initiative relies on less reliable. Nevertheless, the website is an excellent a group of people to disseminate early warnings in EWS model. the community. However, it should be assessed to what extent CBFEWS is fully operational in the com- 6.1.1 PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES SYSTEM munities in which it has been set up. Likewise, it is not clear where the warnings will originate, whether from The provision of public weather services (PWS) by AMD is modest. AMD’s new website (http://www 25 The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a .amd.gov.af/) is the most widely used source of PWS leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. It was created by USAID in 1985 in partnership with NASA, National information. It gives the user community access to a Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USDA, and three-day forecast for a number of cities and severe USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica, weather warnings for provinces. While the Common and currently provides evidence-based analysis for 34 countries including Afghanistan. Alerting Protocol (CAP) has been installed at AMD, it 24  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP is not yet operational for all hazards and all media- ANDMA has drafted (and is awaiting approval of) alerting functions (i.e., radio, television, website, Short a strategic framework to implement activities, and Message Service [SMS], mobile phones, sirens and especially those related to early warnings. ANDMA and loudspeakers). AMD also are developing an early warning communica- tion scheme, whereby AMD issues warnings that are AMD has developed a presence on social media communicated with the ANDMA central office in Kabul. and created a Facebook account, which has proved The information cascades to the High Commission popular and has a feedback function. SMS messages of Disaster Management and provincial offices, local are rarely used. No weather applications are developed authorities and small public groups, the local radio and for mobile and smart phone platforms. Similarly, AMD phone operators and finally to the end-users who are conducts no outreach or public education activities. instructed to take precautions. AMD does not translate/interpret the forecasts into a form to assist daily decision making by users, and no The proposed scheme is sound and should serve as a information is produced on the possible impacts of template for all other disaster warnings, particularly hazards. Assistance and guidance in developing PWS for floods, flash floods and avalanches. However, it is is required, including training in dissemination and essential to thoroughly test and validate the scheme communication, user consultation, and user feedback. before operationalization, particularly the last step, where the end-users are notified to ensure that they AMD’s five-year strategic plan envisions providing have received and understand the messages and Afghanistan’s PWS needs by establishing a compe- know what precautions to take. The warnings must tent meteorological service aligned with the World be received quickly enough to allow the end-users Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) standards, sufficient time to take the required actions to save both for strengthening hydrometeorological disaster their lives and property. resilience of the country and responding to national and international stakeholder needs. Through this Adopting CAP allows agencies to issue alerts and warn- strategic plan, AMD aims to provide nationwide ings without worrying about the details of the ultimate meteorological services, forecasts, and early warnings, dissemination mechanism used by the mandated EWS and to communicate these to the public to meet the agency in Afghanistan. CAP has been installed at meteorological needs of Afghan user communities. AMD (not operational yet); it still has to be installed at ANDMA and WRD-MEW. 6.1.2 DISASTER MANAGEMENT Engaging local organizations (e.g., religious leaders SERVICES SYSTEM and civil society) and building on existing structures can help ensure “last mile connectivity.” For example, Early warning services do not exist in Afghanistan. The there are more than 35,000 Community Development ministries, departments and agencies have vestiges Councils across the country that can disseminate early of the required expertise, but institutional roles and warning for disaster mitigation. The Councils also responsibilities have not been mapped to develop a offer an important advantage by providing face-to- basic whole-of-government capacity. The needs of face communication, which is especially valuable in the public for services are not well-understood by issuing instructions of where to seek shelter during the service providers and the end-users themselves disasters. Possible options for last-mile connectivity have little or no knowledge of (and thus capacity to techniques include broadcast radio and TV and SMS demand for) a modern hydromet and early warning messages to cellular phones. That may work as long system. Thus, an urgent component is building the as the cellular network has coverage over the areas capacity and capabilities of the end-user community. where people may be working in the fields, and the By developing the understanding of hydromet data and particular hazard has not affected the cell phone or products, the end-user community can benefit from electricity supply. The use of sirens or loudspeakers, hydromet services for disaster risk reduction. Reducing located in strategic points, provides additional alert- the risks of disasters can improve the productivity of ing methods. socioeconomic sectors and raise wellbeing. 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 25 Afghanistan should streamline the dissemination of early meteorological aviation reports, to expand service warnings to ensure that all agencies communicate in a to other locations, and to be able to produce other timely manner with the lead early warning agency and reports such as the TAFs for additional sites, Pilot that warning messages reach users without alteration. Reports (PIREP) and en route aviation advisories such Each agency should have its own service delivery system as Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET). for data and information products. Although multiple dissemination channels are recommended, it would 6.1.4 WATER MANAGEMENT AND FLOOD be advisable to route all agencies’ warning messages FORECASTING SERVICES SYSTEM through a single delivery mechanism. In complement, each institution should have its own method of dissemi- A National Hydrological Service (NHS) is an institution nation (e.g., posting the warnings—and any additional whose core business is the provision of information explanations—on its website). That way, the public to decision makers about the water (or hydrological) becomes active consumers of the warnings, knowing cycle and the status and trends of a country’s water where to look for and how to use the information. This resources. Most typically, this focuses on assessing is the current practice at AMD and, as stated above, the water resources, including drought monitoring and AMD website is the most used public service. outlooks and flood forecasting and warnings. In most countries, NHS functions are dispersed among related 6.1.3 AVIATION SERVICES SYSTEM water agencies.26 Typically, the agencies have distinct functions but can have overlapping capabilities (e.g., The aviation reports generated by Operation Resolute modeling, researching, and developing hydrological Support (ORS) for the Meteorological Terminal Air methodologies). Such information may be required, Report (METAR), Aviation Special Weather Report among others, for the following purposes: (SPECI) and Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) meet • Assessing the status of a country’s water resources international standards. These reports are not available (i.e., quantity, quality, and distribution in time and for all civilian airports in Afghanistan, tamping down space), the potential for water-related develop- their user satisfaction to 25 percent. Five sites (Kabul, ment and the resource’s ability to meet actual or Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Jalalabad) produce foreseeable demand; globally available METAR observations taken by ORS. AMD field meteorologists at the various airports are • Planning, designing, and operating water projects; approaching the point where they can produce METAR • Assessing the environmental, economic, and social and SPECI reports, despite their limited technical and impacts of existing and proposed water resources financial resources. management practices and planning sound man- agement strategies; AMD has indicated that their aviation stations need rehabilitation or upgrading. Its five-year strategic plan • Providing security for people and property against calls for the installation of seven aviation AWSs and water-related hazards, particularly floods and for the training of 32 aviation observers to augment droughts; observations at the four international airports (Kabul, • Allocating water among competing users, both Herat, Kandahar, and Mazar-i-Sharif). The planned within the country and across borders; and handover of responsibilities from ORS to AMD at the end of 2016 did not occur and has been postponed, • Meeting regulatory requirements.27 despite training efforts that resulted in AMD forecasters producing an unsupervised TAF for Kabul International In Afghanistan, WRD-MEW (http://wrd-mew.gov.af/ Airport. AMD requires additional training on basic index.php) is the designated National Hydrological topics (e.g., properly coding weather observations) Service (NHS) and operates in accordance with the before the turnover can take place. Water Law of Afghanistan (2009), which enforces AMD needs capacity building in general, with appropri- 26 WMO (2006). ate hardware and software to improve their current 27 WMO and UNESCO (1991). 26  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP the principles of Article 9 of the Constitution for the quality of life for all Afghans, and ensure an adequate purpose of conservation, equitable distribution, and supply of water for future generations. Of the seven the efficient and sustainable use of water resources, strategic goals, protection from effects of droughts to strengthen the national economy and secure the and floods is one. For flood mitigation management, rights of the water users. The law regulates ownership, the strategy indicates nonstructural measures such as fees, rights, permits, and usage with respect to water establishing flood warning and preparedness; while for and covers both surface and groundwater for domestic drought management, the strategy specifies the need and agricultural use. The law dictates that the planning, to develop extensive expertise in weather forecasting management, and development of water resources is techniques in addition to the construction of water the responsibility of MEW in cooperation with other storage reservoirs. Two of the strategy’s objectives relevant line ministries and institutions. Further, MEW are the installation and operation of a hydrometric is responsible for water infrastructure; management network with proper data collection and processing and and planning for the transboundary waters; collection, the effective dissemination of information to users for analysis and evaluation of hydrological data for surface basin water allocation/distribution planning. Another water; water balance monitoring and modeling; snow objective outlines the need for operational information and glacier survey and analysis; and forecasting and systems to predict droughts and to forecast floods and warning for floods and droughts. functional flood management systems in all river basins. Other ministries and agencies also have mandates under 6.1.5 AGRICULTURAL SERVICES SYSTEM the 2009 Water Law of Afghanistan. The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum is responsible for assessing and Afghanistan is the origins of many agricultural products protecting groundwater. The National Environmental (e.g., varieties of cereal, breeds of sheep and goats, Protection Agency is responsible for protecting and and forest products). Agriculture dominates the Afghan controlling surface water. Water use for agriculture economy, contributing an estimated 31 percent of GDP and irrigation is the responsibility of the Ministry of (2010/11) and providing employment and livelihoods Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, while the provi- for about 80 percent of the population (Figure 21). sion of drinking water supply and sewage treatment However, 25 years of war and civil conflict and pro- systems is the responsibility of the Ministry of Rural longed droughts have seriously affected Afghanistan’s Rehabilitation and Development. agriculture sector. The Water Resource Management Sector Strategy Developing the agriculture sector is critical for eco- (2007) lays out a vision to manage Afghanistan’s nomic growth. The National Agricultural Develop- water resources to reduce poverty, increase sustain- ment Framework is a comprehensive development able economic and social development, improve the FIGURE 21 • Agriculture, Industry, and Services in Afghanistan, 2010/11 Employment % GDP % 10 10 31 43 80 Agriculture 26 Industry Services Revenue streams (%): 31% wheat, 1% wage, 1% renting, 4% livestock Source: Met Office (2012). 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 27 blueprint for the agriculture sector. It identifies priorities most of the rural population depends directly or for investment, emphasizing commercial, market- indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. orientated agriculture. Income generation in the high-value perennial horticulture sector is essential The impact of weather on the success of the Agricultural to solve macroeconomic problems and to build rural Development Framework and on long-term economic prosperity and reduce poverty. growth and food security through agriculture is sub- stantial. In the winter of 2004/05 (after a considerable The framework projects perennial horticulture to drought), the above-normal, well-distributed precipita- account for one-third of all agricultural growth. Peren- tion and cold temperatures led to snow accumulations nial crops often require a more educated and controlled and significant winter snowpack. These conditions approach to sustainably contribute to the economy, and contributed to a robust wheat harvest in 2005 and this is especially valid given Afghanistan’s short- and ended a prolonged drought. The 2005 wheat harvest of long-term weather conditions. Close coordination and 4.3 million tons was up 43.4 percent from 2004’s poor integration among AMD, MAIL, and MRRD can enhance harvest of 2.3 million tons. Improved pest management effective management of natural resources, research, also contributed to the bumper 2005 wheat crop. and extension services (advice) and communicate key agricultural messages through farmer associations. It is essential to curb water consumption in agriculture while simultaneously increasing food production. This A simplified agricultural cycle in Afghanistan includes requires a global and sustainable management of the two wheat cycles. Northern Afghanistan is highly depen- water cycle locally and regionally, which requires an dent on rain-fed crops whereas southern Afghanistan understanding of weather and seasonality through the is highly dependent on snowmelt-fed irrigation and, in ability to monitor and estimate changes. Crop harvests turn, the winter rainfall/snowfall over the Hindu Kush. vary dramatically from year-to-year depending on The country has favorable weather conditions for certain the weather with variable mean annual precipitation. high-value crops. While water resource management programs, including dams, have improved the annual Rangelands are essential for Kuchi pastoralists (esti- access to and regularity of water supply, they have mated to comprise 20 percent of the rural population) limited effectiveness against moderate to substantial and for a large part of the settled population who derive meteorological droughts, particularly in the southwest. their income from rearing animals and employment in the livestock industry. Over the last 30 years, drought Afghanistan can experience extensive subzero condi- effects have substantially reduced the livestock popula- tions across the country during winter months. The tion in Afghanistan: there were 30 million sheep/goat intermittent winter frosts (typically overnight) in the and 4 million cattle before the 1999–2004 drought west and southwest regions can significantly impact and 16 million sheep/goat and 3.7 million after it. Blue wheat and preclude more diverse horticulture to fuel tongue disease is prevalent across much of Afghanistan; economic growth. In spring, late frosts mainly affect its spread is largely due to weather patterns carrying fruit production, while rising temperatures can cause the disease vectors from one area to another. Changes flooding that increases the damage and loss vulner- in vegetation and its productivity as well as seasonal ability of crops. An approach to such variable conditions variability in rain, snow, and the vegetation period that incorporates advice from AMD is necessary. have forced nomadic agriculture to higher rangelands, thus increasing pressure on the alpine ecosystems. A Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, developed Afghan meteorological service can monitor making agriculture the most climate-sensitive of all weather/seasonal impacts on livestock and deliver economic sectors. Some provinces are considered warnings through MAIL. especially vulnerable because of a dependence on rain-fed agriculture, widespread poverty, and limited Crop production is highly dependent on weather condi- resources to invest in adaptation and risk reduction. tions and annual precipitation but has been gradually The risks of climate change for the agricultural sector rising over time. Agricultural output, especially of in Afghanistan are immediate and important because cereals, has increased significantly in recent years but 28  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP growth is still highly variable from year to year. A large 6.2 Quality Management Systems proportion of the population remains food insecure, especially in years of poor harvest or high prices. Food security worsened in 2008. The World Food Programme A quality management system (QMS) is defined as the estimated that, in 2008, 35  percent of households organizational structures, procedures, processes, and were not meeting their daily calorific requirements, resources needed to develop and successfully manage 5 percent more than in 2005. While overall growth has the organization’s delivery of products and services.29 been strong, there is so far no real evidence that the Although some quality control of data is done by the rate of growth in agriculture is accelerating. It remains observers and by the METCAP system, no standard dependent on annual weather variations. In more recent and systematic control is performed and no QMS exists years, further development of irrigation has led to the at AMD. WRD-MEW has developed a quality control greatest increase in wheat yield compared to those and data processing system for improving hydromet agricultural areas that are chiefly rain fed. data quality through the use of the AQUARIUS system. The introduction of a QMS in AMD can support the Agriculturally relevant weather forecasts can yield continual enhancement of its products and services immediate benefits and facilitate the adaptation of farm- focusing on quality control, quality assurance, and ing practices to the local context. Farmers can benefit quality improvement. QMS is implemented by most from better local hydrometeorological information and NMHSs in the provision of services to the aviation services, particularly for short-term temperature and sector in compliance with the requirements of the precipitation forecasts. In addition, tailored meteorologi- International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The cal advice through MAIL and its extension agent scheme implementation of QMS as part of the strategy to can contribute to food security through preemptive modernize the AMD can positively impact the quality agricultural action—for example, a better choice of crops of services and management practices as well as the before a drought period and irrigation management.28 user/stakeholder perception. 6.1.6 CLIMATE SERVICES SYSTEM 6.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS Afghanistan’s natural topography produces very large According to the existing laws and strategic plans, spatial variation in temperature and precipitation. the institutional responsibilities for some of the These large variations underscore the need to develop disaster risk management (DRM) and hydromet- and improve climate services for different users. Since related areas (e.g., data collection and exchange and its establishment in the 1950s AMD was a capable early warning services) are not clear. Realizing the service—from its onset it began maintaining climate need for a policy framework for sharing hydromet records. Unfortunately, the tumultuous conflicts of the data and information, a draft Policy Framework 1990s destroyed many of AMD’s capabilities, including on Hydrometeorological Data Sharing has been institutional knowledge, vital climatic records, and skill prepared by WRD-MEW under Supreme Council of sets. Climate records have been partially restored with Land, Water and Environment (SCoLWE). The main support from WMO, but more comprehensive climate purpose of this policy is to formulate an appropri- information is required for planning purposes in many ate mechanism for properly accessing and sharing sectors, including agriculture, water resources manage- of hydrometeorological and hydrogeological data. ment, and disaster management, and for assessing The policy will provide the groundwork for coop- climate variations and change. It is necessary to develop eration and coordination between data producing and set up a national framework for climate services organizations and data users. It also will facilitate in line with the principles of the Global Framework for ease of access to data and information for national, Climate Services to facilitate planning in the relevant regional, and international institutions. It has been sectors to improve food security and health outcomes proposed to widen the scope of this policy to also and to enhance water resource management. include meteorological data produced by AMD and to adopt it as a national policy for data sharing. 28 Ibid. 29 WMO (2013). 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 29 Based on the organizational charts of WRD-MEW and and hydrological hazards, ensuring more timely and AMD there is an overlap in meteorological monitoring, effective responses that will help mitigate weather- hydrometeorological services, and flood-forecasting related disasters. services. According to its strategy, AMD is mandated by law to provide meteorological services, including 6.2.2 OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS flash flood forecasting and aviation meteorological services to the relevant sectors, as well as to the general The operational management status of AMD, WRD- public. WRD-MEW is responsible for other types of MEW, and their main stakeholders (MAIL and ANDMA) flood forecasting in addition to hydrological monitor- needs to be significantly strengthened in terms of hiring ing. In addition, there is no clear understanding among and retaining qualified staff, improving capacity build- AMD, WRD-MEW, and MAIL on their respective roles ing and professional development programs, offering in rainfall and climate monitoring. The AMD proposed appropriate salaries and incentives, mainstreaming organizational structure includes responsibilities gender and providing effective services. It is encourag- such as flash flood forecasting, hydrometeorology, ing that WRD has taken steps in this direction. Overall, and agro-climatology that overlap with the current however, the current meteorological and hydrological responsibilities of WRD-MEW and MAIL. Defining services in Afghanistan have limited capacity and and streamlining the institutional responsibilities of capability to provide quantitative information to guide AMD, WRD-MEW, MAIL, ANDMA, and other relevant timely decision making. stakeholders entails the establishment of a national institutional framework for hydromet and EWS in The situation in Afghanistan is not unlike that in most Afghanistan that defines the roles and responsibilities developing countries that report inadequate staff for each institution from observation, data manage- numbers and capacity in meteorology and hydrology. ment, modeling, and forecasting to early warning and This requires urgent attention, especially to establish service delivery. and maintain an appropriate cadre of professionals in these fields. In almost all cases in the developing The modernization of AMD and WRD-MEW as the world, the necessary institutions for meteorological and two main service providers in Afghanistan should hydrological monitoring have been established, but the have a twofold aim. First, the provision of weather, professional depth and breadth of training and staffing climate, and hydrological services, including national varies. The staff salaries of NMHSs and NHSs tend to observing systems, forecasting systems, warning be low and noncompetitive, such that skilled and quali- systems, and national climate services. Second, future fied staff often leave for better paying opportunities. institutional development and the sustainability of any It is also essential that these organizations ensure the proposed modernization projects, considering the new continuity of skills and timely replacement of retiring requirements for weather, climate, and hydrological highly specialized staff. Modernization efforts need services. An implementation plan supported by realistic to find ways to address these challenges. While many resource allocation involving all relevant ministries NMHSs and NHSs are receiving funding to upgrade and departments, stakeholders, and end-users should their technology, they struggle to ensure sufficient also be developed. Currently, there is no user-driven, human capacity to fully utilize new systems. In some long-term national strategy for weather, climate, and countries, these organizations and the academic sector hydrological services. The absence of such a strategy are not sufficiently engaged or there might not even is reflected in the ad hoc approach and proliferation of be local universities offering education in disciplines independent observational networks and incomplete relevant to meteorological and hydrological services. In coordination of activities related to weather, climate, both cases, the local talent pool remains constrained. and hydrology. Improving the legal and regulatory framework, in line with other countries’ NMHSs, will The present capability of AMD allows it to generate confirm and strengthen AMD’s responsibility and man- weather forecasts for a few locations for three days. date for issuing warnings of meteorological (including There are no hydrological forecasts issued by MEW. flash floods) hazards. Regulation will also codify the This does not respond to the needs of stakeholders responsibilities of other government agencies and who require information for short-term operations as organizations, which are affected by meteorological 30  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP well as medium to long-term planning. Meteorologi- with new meteorological and hydrological tools and cal and hydrological capacity in Afghanistan is being software in their own working environment, as well as developed on a project basis within different govern- training at the regional or even international training ment organizations. The analysis of the AMD, MEW, and facilities. Areas where training is required at AMD and stakeholder (MAIL and ANDMA) operational systems MEW are included in Annex 1 to this Road Map. This reveals low capacity, including: limited accessibility list may be further expanded as deemed necessary. of data and information to meet user needs; lack of As discussed above, the role of local universities in electronic historical data; limited IT and data transmis- creating a talent pool for the country is critical. In sion infrastructure for the majority of data providers; this regard, hydromet-related programs at Kabul limited capacity in data analysis, quality control, Polytechnic University and Kabul University need to interpretation, modeling, forecasting, and product be further strengthened. development; insufficient human resources both in number and skills; lack of integration of meteorological, Educating end-users in the application of hydrometeo- hydrological, and DRM services; lack of weather and rological products for decision making is also essential. hydromet hazard forecasting services; low capacity in User interviews and survey results have demonstrated EWS and appropriate DRM despite the availability of the limitation in the users’ ability to understand, interpret, some service delivery means (e.g., CDCs, radio, and and use products and tools to benefit from hydromet telephone); inadequate hydromet service delivery and early warning data and information provided by system; and absence of effective communications the weather, climate, and hydrological services. User and engagements between the users and producers education should be implemented to overcome this of hydromet data and products. gap. Educating the general public to better understand warnings and probability forecasts in order to have more adequate preparation and awareness is equally important 6.3 Capacity Building as part of the last mile service provision, especially for flooding, which is a major hydrometeorological threat in Afghanistan. User education should include workshops, Building capacity through training activities and the distribution of flyers, publications and public service cooperation with other WMO members to improve videos, and posting educational materials on the AMD the sustainability of the modernization of AMD and and WRD-MEW websites. WRD-MEW is indispensable. For AMD to be effective, continued capacity development and access to new skills beyond those currently delivered by WMO for new and existing staff are essential. Capacity build- 6.4 Monitoring and Observation ing is the foundation block of any NMHS as shown in Systems Figure 17 of this Road Map. Meteorological and hydrological observations constitute A major challenge for AMD, WRD-MEW, and partners is the first step in producing high-quality weather and to create a professional meteorological and hydrologi- flood forecasts with proper lead time, as well as provid- cal workforce. The conflicts of the past decades and ing baseline data for water resources management, limited access to training opportunities, coupled with drought forecasting, and a long-term climate trend. rapid advances in hydrology, meteorology, information Depending on their purpose, stations record tempera- technology, and meteorological and hydrological mod- ture, precipitation, pressure, humidity, evaporation, eling have largely left the AMD and WRD-MEW staff wind speed, solar radiation, soil moisture, snow cover behind. A steady supply of meteorologists, hydrolo- depth, and density, and hydrological regime parameters gists, engineers, and related specialists with university (water levels, discharges, and reservoir storages) as degrees to be further trained using tailored training well as agromet parameters (soil temperature and soil programs and developing their abilities to perform at moisture). Monitoring and observation systems consist the required skill levels is needed to replace retiring of observation stations as well as data transmission, staff. It is essential to provide in-house courses to ensure telecommunication networks, and data processing and that as many of the staff as possible become familiar storage systems, that is, data management systems. 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 31 6.4.1 GLOBAL DATA SYSTEM FIGURE 22 • AMD Meteorological Monitoring Network AMD has access to observation data from certain global centers such as ECMWF and NWS/NOAA through the METCAP+ system, which was developed by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. AMD also has access to satellite data via the EUMETCast system of Meteosat-8. WRD-MEW has access to some global data. 6.4.2 NATIONAL DATA SYSTEMS In addition to AMD, several other government organi- zations, notably WRD-MEW, MAIL, and MPW, collect various observation data through their own networks. The status of the data collected by each organization is described below. Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). Surface Meteorological Observations Network Meteorological Stations (AMD): The meteorological observation network has varied significantly since the the rehabilitation and expansion of its network, AMD establishment of AMD in 1955. Between 1979 and 1990, has made provisions in its five-year strategic plan AMD had one of the most robust networks of surface for assessing six AWSs currently operated by MEW meteorological observations in the region. At one point, and MAIL, transforming them to SYNOP stations and there were as many as 70 synoptic (SYNOP) stations, integrating them into the national AMD meteorological 200 climate stations, 3 aeronautical (METAR) stations, observation network. and 32 agriculture (AGROMET) stations. In 1996, most of the meteorological data and infrastructure of AMD The AMD five-year plan envisages the addition of were destroyed. WMO recovered some of the data in more than 30 rainfall monitoring sites as part of the 1998. The surface monitoring network operated by expansion of their SYNOP station network and their AMD includes 28 synoptic stations, but the equipment aviation observation network. is mostly manual and outdated producing incomplete and unreliable data (Figure 22). Photo 1: Manual Recording of Synoptic and METAR AMD is in the process of restructuring and upgrad- Observations at Herat Station ing its operations and building the capacity of its technical and management staff with support of the USAID-WMO EWS Project. The establishment of five AWS and three manual synoptic stations by the end of 2017 was postponed to 2018. AMD provides SYNOP observations to the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) from six AWSs at Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz, North-Salang, Herat, Bamiyan, and Kabul International Airport. Data from five other stations are provided to GTS on an irregular basis. The six AWSs are managed on a five-year contractual basis, while the manual stations are maintained by AMD. According to the AMD five-year strategic plan, Afghanistan requires around 50 SYNOP stations to adequately monitor the weather elements across the country. In addition to Source: WMO (2016a). 32  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP As described above, Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-i- TABLE 3 • Current Rainfall Monitoring Network Sharif, and Jalalabad produce METAR observations by Basin taken by ORS. These observations are available globally. River Basin Name Basin Area (km2) Number of Stations AMD still requires additional basic training, such as Panj-e-Amu 96,599 86 properly coding weather observations. AMD needs Harirud-Murghab 77,595 33 capacity building in general, with appropriate hardware Helmand 327,801 56 and software to improve their current meteorological Kabul (Indus) 72,685 92 aviation reports, to expand aviation services to other Northern 70,914 45 locations in accordance with Afghanistan’s Civil Avia- Total 645,594 312 tion Master Plan,30 and to be able to produce reports such as TAFs for additional sites, Pilot Reports (PIREP) Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). and en route aviation advisories such as Significant AMD meteorological stations and MAIL agrometeo- Meteorological Information (SIGMET). rological stations collect rainfall data. AMD operates 24 rain gauges, mainly manually, at their current Rain Gauges (AMD, MAIL, and MEW): The current meteorological stations. rainfall monitoring network comprises 312 active rainfall stations (Table 3). They all include the MEW Figure 23 shows the locations of existing rain gauges. hydromet, climatological, and snow monitoring sites; Gaps are found particularly in the Helmand River Basin, the northeastern part of the Panj-e-Amu River Basin 30 Met Office (2012). and southeastern area of the Kabul Basin. Some of FIGURE 23 • Precipitation Monitoring Network Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 33 these gaps are due to difficulties of access and/or climate station, but they are also equipped with an security issues. additional snow depth sensor. The current station coverage indicates that some parts of Afghanistan Climate Stations (MAIL and MEW): The climate observ- are well covered with snow observational sites, while ing network in Afghanistan includes 26 AWSs and other regions such as the northeast and west central 30 snow monitoring stations operated by MEW and higher elevation areas are sparsely covered (Figure 26). nine automatic agroclimate stations operated by MAIL (Figure 24). Table 5 provides a breakdown of the snow stations for each basin. These stations were established between As indicted earlier 26 AWS operated by MEW will 2011 and 2016. In addition, AMD’s current and planned be transferred to AMD. Figure 25 shows the climate SYNOP and METAR reporting stations are capable of network in Afghanistan. reporting snow depths. The advantage offered by the MEW snow stations is that they are located in ideal The 26 climate stations established between 2010 and sites to provide water resource information. By their 2016 by MEW are built around a portable automatic nature, snow stations are located at higher elevation, weather station system. These stations provide observa- which is bound to cause issues about site installation, tion data on: air temperature, relative humidity, dew maintenance, and security. point, sun hours, solar radiation, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, gust speed, gust direction, and MEW has the largest rainfall monitoring network with air pressure. A breakdown of the number of stations around 180 automatic rain gauges. There is a lack of currently located in each of the basins is provided in capacity to operate and maintain automatic climate Table 4. Some of the climate observing network sites stations. Both MEW and MAIL are still relying on the could be upgraded to SYNOP sites. AMD is planning weather station providers to operate and maintain to assess six climate stations currently operated by their respective stations. MAIL and MEW for upgrade to SYNOP sites. Agrometeorological Stations (MAIL): MAIL has nine Snow Monitoring Stations (MEW): The 30 snow moni- agrometeorological stations, which provide data for toring stations operated and maintained by MEW are 12  parameters: air temperature, relative humidity, also portable automatic weather stations. The snow pressure, wind speed/wind direction (including gusts), stations collect the same data parameters as MEW’s solar radiation, precipitation (hourly, daily, and/or FIGURE 24 • Location of the 26 AWSs Managed by MEW Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b). 34  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 25 • Climate Monitoring Network Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). TABLE 4 • Climate Monitoring Network by Basin Standards for site selection and installation of the climate stations are not harmonized among AMD, River Basin Name Basin Area (km2) Number of Stations MEW, and MAIL. In addition, the complexity of the Panj-e-Amu 96,599 22 technology of the automatic stations and the lack Harirud-Murghab 77,595 6 of maintenance are among the main reasons for the Helmand 327,801 10 malfunctioning of the climate stations. Kabul (Indus) 72,685 17 Northern 70,914 10 Forty stations monitor the growth of about 30 cultivated plant species and agromet conditions for meadows Total 645,594 65 and pastures. They also provide agromet parameters, Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). including soil moisture. It is unclear whether farmers use this information. The Ministry of Agriculture and accumulated), soil moisture, soil temperature, leaf wet- research and academic bodies use this information ness and evaporation. They also calculate parameters mostly for monitoring the growing conditions of crops. of the hours of sun, dew point and evapotranspiration. Basic evapotranspiration measurements are made at Figure 27 shows agroclimate data gaps, particularly five stations. in the Northeast and Northwest of Um Darya Basin, Northern River Basin and Helmand Basin. Surface Hydrological Observations Network MAIL also operates nine automatic agroclimate stations In general, many developing countries report having and 108 automatic rain gauges, including nine at the insufficient staff and financial resources to operate agroclimate stations and 99 at the rainfall stations. and maintain their national hydrological observation 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 35 FIGURE 26 • Snow Monitoring Network Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). TABLE 5 • Snow Monitoring Network by Basin straightforward tasks such as routine maintenance are neglected while data records and validations River Basin Name Basin Area (km2) Number of Stations are lost. The ongoing maintenance of hydrological Panj-e-Amu River 96,599 13 networks and the establishment and maintenance of Basin a hydrological information system to enable access to Harirud-Murghab 77,595 2 data and information are also necessary operational Helmand 327,801 5 parts of fully functional NHSs. These issues are familiar Kabul (Indus) 72,685 8 in the context of Afghanistan. Northern River Basin 70,914 2 Total 645,594 30 The hydrological observation network in Afghanistan comprises the following types of monitoring stations Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). and sites: • Hydrometric stations for river stage/discharge or network.31 Automatic stations require continual invest- reservoir/lake level; ment, and they need to be refreshed every 10 to 15 years. Hazard events such as floods, lightning strikes, and • Water quality monitoring and sediment monitor- vandalism can damage a station beyond repair, but ing sites, which are usually located at streamflow even limited damages to simple, inexpensive items such gauging locations; as staff gauges are often not repaired. In many cases, • Groundwater level and quality observation wells; and • Groundwater quality monitoring sites. 31 World Bank/GFDRR (2018). 36  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 27 • Agroclimate Monitoring Network Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). Surface Water Level/Discharge: With the support of The contract for this service was not extended and World Bank Irrigation Restoration and Development the telemetry has remained disconnected since 2016. Project (IRDP), WRD-MEW has been strengthening Reconnection is being considered with revised data hydrological services since 2008. IRPD support includes download frequency. Meteorological stations collect the restructuring of the WRD and the installation data for precipitation, temperature and relative humid- and operation of 125 hydrological stations. In many ity, wind speed and direction, pressure, solar radiation, countries, the potential use of data for real-time water and snow depth (in snow survey stations only) and resources management is not realized due to a lack logged the data every 30 minutes. The data from of telemetry (automated monitoring and communica- 56  meteorological stations were also transferred in tion) and data processing and management systems. near-real time (every 30 minutes) to a central server In some countries, telemetry systems are in use at a using the Iridium satellite telemetry system until limited number of stations. Other countries have no December 2016. Currently, 54 meteorological stations telemetered stations at all. are functional while two stations were destroyed. The telemetry system is also under consideration in The automatic hydrological stations in Afghanistan 45 selected hydrological stations. collect water level, precipitation, air temperature, and relative humidity. These parameters were observed Because the IRDP Additional Financing shifts to value- every 15 minutes through data loggers and downloaded added hydrological services (e.g., flood forecasting through a telemetry system using Iridium satellite. and early warning, risk management, climate change 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 37 FIGURE 28 • Hydrological Monitoring Network Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). impact studies, and snow and glacier monitoring), MEW has equipment for 47  new hydrological sta- there is a need to assess the adequacy and quality of tions that has not been installed because of security the data collected. concerns. WRD is planning to install 18 of these stations in 2018/19, and the rest will be installed Figure 28 illustrates the spatial distribution of the as and when the security situation improves in the hydrological network for each of the five basins: respective locations. overall many parts of the country are adequately gauged. The ungauged areas center in the Helmand Discharge measurements are made through cable River Basin, the northeastern part of the Panj-e-Amu way, bridge boom, wading, and float system. Water River Basin, parts of the North River Basin and level measurements are taken through automatic Harirud-Murghab Basin and the southeastern area of hydrological stations and staff gauges. Forty-three the Kabul Basin. These monitoring gaps are mainly bank-operated cable ways are installed in the hydro- due to difficulties of access and/or security issues. logical stations, and work is in progress for 30 more The main criteria to select hydrological stations bank-operated cableways. are: (i) strategic importance of historical and new locations; (ii) experience and knowledge of national In 2010, MEW acquired 12 hydro-acoustic instruments and international experts; (iii) uniform coverage in (QLiners) for streamflow measurements. In addition the river basins and sub-basins using old maps and to increased accuracy, the QLiners offer direct mea- Google Earth Images; and (iv)  security situation. surement of discharge, rating curves updates, and 38  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP Photo 2: Automatic Hydrologic Station Surface Water Quality Monitoring: Water in the riv- ers across Afghanistan are used for many purposes, including for drinking water and other domestic purposes, industry, and agriculture. Deterioration of the water quality in rivers affects human health, hydropower generation, livelihoods, the environment, and the economy in general. Increased sediment and nutrient loading in rivers adversely affect the river water quality. The water quality in rivers is correlated to river flows, and the relationship varies spatially and temporally. Climate change further aggravates the problem: prolonged dry spells and high-intensity rainfall contribute to floods, soil erosion, excessive sedi- ment loads in rivers and sedimentation of reservoirs, reduced groundwater recharge, and reduced base-flow in rivers. This contributes to further deteriorate the Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b). water quality by increasing the pollution concentra- tion. Protection of surface water from pollution and TABLE 6 • Hydrometric Monitoring Network monitoring its quality is the responsibility of NEPA by Basin with cooperation from the MAIL, MEW, Ministry of Urban Development Affairs (MUDA), MRRD, Ministry River Basin Name Basin Area (km2) Number of Stations of Public Health (MoPH), and Ministry of Mines and Amu Darya 96,599 39 Petroleum (MoMP). There is no active national routine Harirud-Murghab 77,595 14 water quality monitoring program in Afghanistan. MEW only has sensors in 12 hydrological stations to measure Helmand 327,801 17 conductivity, tributary, and water temperature. A lack Kabul (Indus) 72,685 37 of wastewater treatment means that raw wastewater Northern 70,914 18 is discharged in river courses and is a major source of Total 645,594 125 surface water contamination. Routine water quality Source: Water for Life Solutions (2017). monitoring is needed to address water quality dete- rioration and to protect sources of domestic water supply, in addition to meeting the need for surface tremendous time savings. Unfortunately, the equip- water quality data of 12 area users. ment provider could not complete the training of the MEW staff and the QLiners have not been used. As a Sediment Load Monitoring: Soil erosion and siltation result, MEW is currently using manual current meters of dams and irrigation canals are major issues in for discharge measurements. Afghanistan. MEW conducts sediment monitoring in all hydrometric monitoring sites. Six sediment Based on the information gathered through the analysis laboratories have been established by MEW hydromet and EWS questionnaire, rating curves in Kabul, Nangarhar, Kunduz, Balkh, Kunduz, and are updated only once a year. This is not sufficient Kandahar (Figure 29) to analyze the sediment data for hydrometric cross sections that have unstable (only suspended sediment) collected. Current meters, riverbeds. The U.S. Geological Service (USGS) Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs), suspended advises that the initial measurements be made sediment samplers, equipment for sediment labs, and with the necessary frequency to define the station other accessories are used for data collection and rating and then to revisit it at periodic intervals 10 analysis. Given the direct impact of soil erosion on the to 12 times per year.32 life of dams and irrigation canals, additional sediment monitoring sites and laboratories are needed in the remaining areas of the country that experience soil 32 Rantz (1982). erosion. 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 39 FIGURE 29 • Location of Sediment Analysis Laboratories Source: WRD (2012). Groundwater Level and Quality Monitoring: The MEW/ of water quality may result in further aggravation of Hydrogeological Department (HGD) has no routine hardships experienced by the population. Climate groundwater monitoring. No groundwater observa- change may also make the issues more complicated. tion wells were reported by MEW/HGD. MEW/HGD also has no routine groundwater quality monitoring. 6.4.3 UPPER-AIR SYSTEM However, water quality sampling campaigns are carried out sporadically in specific areas by projects such as There are no functioning upper-air monitoring stations the one undertaken in 2004 in Kabul.33 In addition in Afghanistan. AMD has identified this as a deficiency to the threat of raw wastewater discharge to rivers, and has proposed the installation of four upper-air septic tank seepages are a threat to groundwater observing stations in its strategic plan. Operating and quality. The results of the sector users’ questionnaire maintaining these stations will obviously require training show that groundwater quality data is needed by and financial resources. The plan recognizes that the 15 socioeconomic areas. This highlights the need for desired spatial resolution of upper-air observations is groundwater quality monitoring. 250 kilometers, which would require a total of 10–11 sites. Since the plan calls for four sites, an additional six Water Quality Laboratories: MEW has no water quality to seven sites should be envisaged beyond 2021. A laboratories in Afghanistan. Given the high demand potential opportunity is the Aircraft Meteorological for both surface water and groundwater quality, and Data Relay (AMDAR) system; it facilitates the fully the responsibility of MEW in surface and groundwater automated collection and transmission of weather monitoring, it is necessary to establish water quality observations from commercial aircraft as well as some laboratories at MEW. military and private aircraft. The above hydrological issues point out that floods are In terms of requirements, it would be necessary to equip a major natural hazard affecting life, livelihood, and the the aircraft with the required software for reporting and economy in Afghanistan. In addition, any deterioration to establish a means of receiving and processing the data for local use and putting it on the GTS facilitated 33 Houben and Tünnermeier (2005). by an existing data processing center (e.g., NOAA or 40  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP EUMETNET). The associated ongoing communications issues or hazards. Most stations tend to be located cost might be in the order of US$10,00–US$20,000 in more secure areas around Afghanistan’s major per year to get the data from the aircraft to the ground cities due to the difficult security issues in the region. and then to the data processing center. Integrating remote sensing data with those obtained from in-situ stations can be accomplished by using the latter as a validation or calibration point; by providing 6.4.4 RADAR SYSTEM complementary maps of areas that are not observed by in-situ stations; or by blending the in-situ data There are no weather radars in Afghanistan other with the remote sensing data using models or data than those used by Operation Resolute Support. assimilation techniques. The AMD strategic plan identified this as insufficient and proposed the installation of one weather radar There is limited capacity in Afghanistan to systemati- by 2020. Although radars can be of great help in cally access, process, and integrate remote sensing agriculture and transport, their cost, operation, and products into hydromet services and EW systems, maintenance pose a serious challenge for the AMD and no formal requirements have been identified for under the existing constraints. The mountainous remote sensing products and services. The develop- terrain of Afghanistan poses serious beam blockage ment of capacity in this area, however, will allow the issues. Furthermore, depending on the intended use use of remote sensing data to produce precipitation, of the radar, it may be of limited use outside of the floods, landslides, avalanches, extreme temperature, local area of the radar itself. Taking all these issues soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and land cover into consideration, the return on investment may be maps of Afghanistan in support of agriculture, and to too small to be warranted at this time. But this can support weather and hydrological forecasting and EW be revisited in the future, following other essential services. The section below provides an inventory and capacity and infrastructure improvements, as well as description of currently available and planned remote improvement in the security situation. sensing hydromet and EW products and services provided by AMD, MEW, MAIL, and MPW, as well as 6.4.5 USE OF REMOTE SENSING PRODUCTS ongoing projects and initiatives. Large parts of Afghanistan do not have insufficient AMD has installed a meteorological satellite data recep- in-situ hydromet observing stations to support the tion station providing it with the capability of receiving reliable provision of EW and hydromet services. This satellite images and products from Meteosat-8. One is especially true in the mountainous and semiarid of Meteosat-8’s products, EUMETCast, provides infor- Helmand Province, the mountainous Amu Dayra mation on severe weather and convective detection. Province and the Northern Plateau. These sparsely EUMETCast data are available and used for weather observed regions are where satellite data can be forecasting at AMD and are shared between AMD and particularly useful as a complementary data source other national stakeholders. In the absence of weather to in-situ systems and should be well integrated into radars operated by AMD, useful rainfall data can be the country’s hydromet observing network to ensure obtained from the weather satellite. maximum benefit and cost-effectiveness. MEW uses remote sensing to estimate seasonal water The current security concerns and geographic features availability from snowpack. It is planned to use the in Afghanistan lend themselves for using remote snowpack information for flood forecasting and for sensing systems for data collection. Indeed, such enhancing in-situ hydromet monitoring. ICIMOD has systems may be the only source of information in supported capacity building activities for WRD staff some areas of Afghanistan, due to either the limited on the use of remote sensing systems and Geographic or lacking in-situ systems or the prevailing security Information System (GIS) in calculating water balance. 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 41 It is also partnering with WRD to undertake a snow agencies. In addition, the main hydromet service pro- and glacial study using remote sensing techniques. viders need a comprehensive, reliable, and accessible database, as well as proper means for data processing, MAIL has very high resolution land use imagery and validation, and communication. AMD, WRD-MEW, is actively using remote sensing data to produce crop and MAIL all have plans and ongoing activities for maps. However, they have very few remote sensing improving data processing, data QA/­ QC, and data products related to precipitation, soil moisture, and management. Until 2017, AMD lacked any form of data evapotranspiration. MAIL has been successful in management system including QA/QC. All AMD data producing snow maps using satellite visible imagery. are recorded on paper, and WMO is supporting the There are many ongoing capacity building and training rescue in a digital database of historical data dating initiatives underway at MAIL; however, these initiatives from the 1940s. There is potential for support from are limited with respect to processing and analyzing WMO to AMD in building capacity for processing, remote sensing data. There are ongoing plans with QA/­ Q C and management of the data from the India to establish a satellite receiving station as well upgraded and new stations. As mentioned in Sec- as to further improve MAIL’s climate observing ground tion 5.4.1, AMD has access to data from certain global network. centers such as ECMWF and NWS/NOAA through the METCAP+ system, as well as satellite data via the EUMETCast system of Meteosat-8. Some quality 6.4.6 DATA MANAGEMENT AND ARCHIVING control is done by METCAP+ as well as the observers SYSTEMS: DATA COLLECTION SYSTEM, themselves, but these are not based on a rigorous QUALITY SYSTEM, AND STORAGE quality management regime. AND ARCHIVING Hydrological data is managed by WRD-MEW. Hydro- Meteorological and hydrological information, prod- logical data gathered from the five basins observing ucts, or services are only as good as the underlying stations are transferred via a flash disk into the data and information on which they are based. This relevant PCs at the database room (there are five necessitates good systems to manage meteorological PCs for the five basins). This obviously means that and hydrological data as a priority, even in resource- data are not transmitted in real time for processing constrained environments. The hydromet services of at the database room. Missing hydrological data from many low- and middle-income countries do not have 1979 to 2009 are being filled through JICA HYMEP access to modern information systems. Their data are (Figure 30). often held in paper archives or simple spreadsheets. Quality assurance and quality control (QA/AC) of MEW has been supported by JICA HYMEP since 2013 data are another issue in many countries. Modern to build capacity on hydrometeorological information data management systems embed a data quality management by establishing data processing and management framework, but many NMHSs do not quality control, data storage, access and dissemination regularly control the data quality. As observed in many systems, and procedures. The meteorology section of developing countries, limitations of data collection and MEW collects meteorological data from 26 meteorologi- management also present a barrier to data sharing cal and 30 snow observing stations. HYMEP already among different government departments, even if the has done the quality control and archiving of data for protocols for such exchange exist. 15 stations and the process is ongoing for the remaining stations. HYMEP also is supporting the development The above situation is familiar in Afghanistan, which of a framework and procedures for data sharing within needs to develop an effective systematic means MEW and with other institutions such as AMD, MAIL, for sharing hydromet data and products as well as ANDMA, MRRD, and the National Environmental for sharing warnings or other products among the Protection Agency (Figure 31). 42  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 30 • Data Availability Data Availability Generated Data (1979–2009) Historical Data New Data HYMEP-JICA Hydrology data from Hydrology and Weather Stations Snow Stations historical stations meteorology data from (2012–2016) (2012–2016) (1960–1980) Automatic Hydrological Stations (2008–2016) 1-Air temperature 1-Air temperature 1-Discharge data 2-Relative humidity 2-Relative humidity 2-Sediment data 1-Discharge data 3-Dew point 3-Dew point 2-Air temperature 4-Sun hours 4-Sun hours 3-Relative humidity 5- Solar radiation 5-Solar radiation 4-Precipitation 6-Precipitation 6-Precipitation 7-Wind speed 7-Wind speed 8-Wind direction 8-Wind direction 9-Gust speed 9-Gust speed 10-Gust direction 10-Gust direction 11-Air pressure 11-Snow depth 12-Air pressure Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b). The MAIL rain gauge network sends data once a day by AMD, MEW, and MAIL have ongoing activities for phone, while monthly rain data sets are sent by regular using hydrometeorological data to develop products mail. All data are stored in Microsoft Access and Excel. In for their own use. WMO supported AMD in develop- terms of data quality, data from MAIL’s manually observed ing capacity (Phase 1 of the AMD Strategic Plan, stations are not measured according to standards. MAIL which ended in December 2017) to analyze weather, has a data portal that includes historical and estimated interpret NWP products, and prepare Flash Flood agromet information from the 1950s to 2016, land cover Guidance System (FFGS) bulletins. Once launched, data for 1972, 1993, and 2011 and a variety of satellite Phase 2 will potentially focus on supporting AMD to images from 2005 to 2015. MAIL produces weekly, secure access to aeronautical products and expand monthly, and seasonal agroclimate bulletins. The GIS/ its capabilities for provision of improved weather Agromet-EW Unit is heading a Geospatial Working Group forecasts and initiation of flood forecasting in col- to establish a national data center for crop forecasting laboration with MEW and MAIL. The eventual goal of and drought early warning. It is expected that the above AMD is to establish efficient end-to-end early warning plans and ongoing efforts will yield a more common, system and services for hydromet hazards. MEW uses useful and cost-effective benefit if they are properly snow, streamflow, and satellite data to produce water coordinated among AMD, MEW, and MAIL. availability forecasts. 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 43 FIGURE 31 • Framework for a Hydromet Data-Sharing Platform Major Data Providers AMD MEW MAIL NMDB Agriculture NHDB Database Data sharing g in Da ar t as h as ha t Da rin Data Consumers g Universities ANDMA Data retrieving National Data retrieving Fiber Optic Network Da g in ta ev Data retrieving Natural disaster re tri tri re ev operation center ta in Da g MRRD MPW NEPA Source: Government of Afghanistan (2016b). 6.5 ICT Systems: and to procure new computers and printers for the forecasters and observers to establish a forecasting Telecommunication System center. Currently, there is only one IT specialist at AMD (Data Exchange and Distribution managing the AMD website. System, Transmission) The MEW data management infrastructure is well developed and working properly. MEW has advanced AMD does not have a satellite or a cable connection computer systems for data management, as well as for data transfers; data flow from AMD’s stations to an effective data communication network (satellite the center takes place daily or six per hour by radio and 3G connections). transmitter or phone. Internet bandwidth speed is very limited at 8 Mbps for the purpose of downloading MAIL’s AWS data are sent via satellite connection. products from global and regional centers. In 2017, Data are transferred to the data center with satellite WMO supported AMD to install a new IT infrastructure networks, phone, 3G connection, and cable DSL. 44  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP 6.6 Modeling Systems 6.7 Objective and Impact 6.6.1 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL NWP SYSTEMS Forecasting and Warning Systems AMD relied strictly on model data provided by ORS until recently, with ORS sending daily satellite images 6.7.1 SEVERE HAZARD FORECASTING and model (ALADIN) outlooks from ORS’s Meteoro- SYSTEMS logical Unit by e-mail to support AMD. The ongoing development and upgrading of AMD’s communica- Many of the hazards affecting Afghanistan originate tions infrastructure should allow access to NWP from hydromet events such as heavy precipitation models (e.g., from ECMWF, the UK Met Office, and prolonged dry spells or extreme temperatures. These the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the U.S. are primary hazards which lead to secondary and NWS). AMD issues public weather forecasts based tertiary hazards. For example, floods and flash floods on data accessed via METCAP+, which includes the follow weather events, either heavy rain, fast snowmelt GFS model with a coarse spatial resolution (22 km) from heat waves in the early spring, or a combination freely available from the Internet and a cloud model of both snowmelt or rain on snow. Landslides and from ECMWF. AMD would benefit from access to avalanches may be other consequences of heavy ECMWF data and products in graphical format at an precipitation. While droughts could result in heat waves annual cost of €3,500 (US$2,870), which is the stan- and water scarcity, both droughts and frosts will result dard cost for image products. Although the ECMWF in damage or loss of crops and important impacts on graphical products provide a significant tool to improve human and animal health. Pest and disease outbreaks hydromet forecasting, the ultimate goal in forecasting may be triggered by drought or excess precipitation. should be access to digital data (e.g., from ECMWF The distinction of hazards in such a cascading manner 9-kilometer resolution). A software license is required, is the first step in progressing from weather forecasts and extensive training in handling (use and manipula- and warnings to multi-hazard, impact-based forecasts tion) of the digital data from ECMWF is essential. The and warnings (Table 7). current staff underwent a 40-day training course in forecasting in Turkey that provided basic and general Successful impact-based forecasting requires collabo- information on meteorological forecasting. AMD would ration with others who have the additional expertise, also benefit from access to observational and NWP resources, and knowledge and data. Forecasting data from neighboring countries’ NHMS (e.g., Pakistan severe hazards will require a well-established weather Meteorological Department, India Meteorological forecasting system on different time scales. Department, and Iran Meteorological Organization). Hydrological Forecasts WRD uses the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) Hydrologic Modeling System to analyze flood runoff. A considerable amount of the loss and damage could The system is designed to simulate the complete be avoided if the people to be affected are warned hydrologic processes of dendritic watershed systems. in advance. The absence of such a warning system WRD also uses the HEC Statistical Software Package for using modern forecasting and dissemination systems flood probability and frequency. This software allows is a major issue to be addressed in Afghanistan. In users to perform statistical analyses of hydrologic producing hydrological forecasts, close collaboration data. No models are used by WRD to produce flood between NMHSs and NHSs is essential. Hydrological forecasts. The implementation of forecast models services are dependent on meteorological data in the is a high priority requirement to allow proper flood form of quantified estimates of observed and fore- forecasting. casted precipitation and temperature, as well as such 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 45 TABLE 7 • Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Hazards Cascading from Hydrometeorological Events Event Primary Hazard Secondary Hazard Tertiary Hazard Thunderstorm • Heavy rainfall • Flash floods • Damage to dams and structures, embankment, irrigation • Strong winds • River floods and drainage facilities, pumping facilities • Lightning • Landslides • Submerging fields • Loss of infrastructure systems and services (shelter, energy, transport, schools, hospitals, communications) • Widespread economic losses • Infectious disease • Insect and pest problems • Sand and silt deposition • Waterborne diseases • High sediment runoff into reservoirs Drought • High temperatures • Water scarcity • High evaporation loss in reservoirs • Heat waves • Low flow • Shortage of storage water in reservoirs • Less rainfall • Less inflow • Insufficient diversion in channels • Crop damage • Salt-affected soil • Forest and surface fires • Food shortages • Energy shortages • Pumping system difficulties • Air pollution/haze • Smog/dust Extreme • Heat waves • Heat stroke • Socioeconomic impacts Temperature • Heat-related complications • Widespread fires • Hydropower shortage with livestock and animals • Urban fires • Changes in groundwater level • Biological hazards • Waterborne diseases • Stress on vegetation • Food shortages • Water insecurity environmental variables as dew point, wind speed and Susceptibility Index by administrative regions. It clearly direction, and solar radiation. Too often these data and shows that a large part of the country is exposed at products are provided to NHSs as inputs for hydrologic a considerably high risk to flash floods. modeling as an afterthought, without consideration of required data formats, timeliness, and delivery methods. Specifically, the mountainous northeast part of the NHSs are forced to improvise with data and weather country and some of the central provinces are particu- forecast delivery that is generally inadequate for their larly vulnerable to floods and flash floods. Flash floods needs. These considerations are particularly important are triggered by high rainfall intensities that exceed in Afghanistan due to the separation of responsibilities the infiltration intensity and result in a high amount for flood forecasting between AMD and WRD-MEW. of surface runoff. In comparison to floods, here the saturation of soil and the amount of free soil storage Floods and flash floods are a major source of death capacity play a less important role. Urban floods are and property loss in Afghanistan. Over a thousand induced by the same characteristics as flash floods (1,038) flood events occurred between 2012 and 2015, with the difference that infiltration of paved areas is resulting in the deaths of 204 people, with 212 injured, close to zero and smaller rainfall intensities will result 34 missing, and nearly 297,000 affected.34 Information in high surface runoff. Soils with moisture below satu- on economic loss was not available, with the exception ration levels still may lead to flash floods in response of losses from seven nonconsecutive years between to precipitation events. Therefore, although extreme 1978 and 2014 amounting to US$549 million (Deltares, precipitation will result in flash floods, heavy precipi- 2016). Figure 7 in Chapter 2 presents the Flash Flood tation may or may not cause flash floods, depending on the soil condition. WMO with funding from USAID has planned the development of a Flash Floods Guid- 34 Deltares (2016). ance System (FFGS). Once implemented, the system 46  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP will offer two new features: (i) river routing that uses weather and convective conditions is available to AMD. runoff, soil moisture, and other FFGS parameters and Once implemented, the FFGS will be operated by an combines them with the channel geometry and profiles agreed leading agency. to estimate discharges at the critical points along the river (i.e., a river routing module can be expanded to WRD-MEW has plans for establishing a Flood Fore- inundation mapping, reservoir management, and water casting and Early Warning System (FFEWS) to issue resources management); and (ii) landslide/mudflow. hydrological forecasts (both river and flash floods). Those warnings would be issued to the relevant river AMD is responsible for weather observations and basin authorities and ANDMA. MEW is initiating the forecasting (including flash floods), while WRD-MEW is establishment of these services under the newly responsible for flood forecasting. However, forecasting established Flood and Drought Forecasting Division. flash floods under currently available techniques, such This division predicts annual surface water resources as the Global Flash Flood Guidance (GFFG) System, in one watershed based on the estimation of the snow requires an assessment of the current capacity of the water equivalent (SWE). FEWS NET produces maps soil to absorb additional moisture, and WRD-MEW, with SWE observations and posts those maps on the being responsible for flow forecasting, is the agency in Internet, which are then printed and scanned by MEW the best position to assess the capacity available for soil before being converted into a GIS layer to produce an moisture. It should however be noted that flash floods estimate of SWE in the basin. Finally, using GIS and a cannot be forecasted in the same way as floods. These regression approach, SWE is converted to estimated events depend on convective cells, which are more surface water resources available at several sections of random than large synoptic rainfall events. Early warn- the watershed. However, the procedure of scanning the ing for flash floods requires storm tracking by weather image is time consuming and MEW could receive the radar. Often the affected region can be anticipated, but original digital SWE estimate from the USGS simply by a localization of such events with an area of 1–30 km2 in requesting it. Likewise, MAIL could use water supply time is not possible. Close collaboration between AMD forecasts for irrigation management on all irrigated and WRD-MEW is key to successfully forecast flash floods. lands. MEW issues a water supply outlook for a single river at a single point. Effective coordination between Reliable hydrological forecasts require weather forecasts MAIL, MEW, and AMD could ensure that MAIL receives on various timescales: up to 14 days for rain-induced a water supply outlook that considers the supply of flood forecasts, several weeks for snowmelt-induced water from snow melt (MEW-WRD), the expected floods, two to four weeks for reservoir management, precipitation and temperatures for the growing season and monthly and seasonal for droughts. In addition, (AMD) and water usage along the river reach (MAIL). river levels and discharge, precipitation, snow condi- This would allow MEW to issue reliable forecasts across tions (snow cover area and snow-water equivalent), the country. temperature, and other meteorological observations are all necessary inputs for hydrological forecasting models. As WRD-MEW has taken the initiative to produce an WRD-MEW collects river and snow observations, while outlook of water supply for irrigation purposes in one AMD, WRD-MEW, and MAIL collect meteorological watershed, as well as a training program for its hydrolo- and climate observation data. gists, there is a reasonable degree of confidence that with proper training and a forecasting infrastructure setup, With support from WMO, AMD issued its first flood WRD-MEW will be capable of operating a hydrological early warning for the country’s south and southeast forecast service for Afghanistan. WRD-MEW would regions in August 2017, using data from EUMETCast cover, in addition to water supply for irrigation, flood and METCAP but not FFGS (which had not yet been forecasts. However, interagency collaboration is critical. implemented). Afghanistan is part of the WMO’s South Asia Flash Flood Guidance System, but the Landslides project has not been implemented.35 With the aid of Meteosat-8’s EUMETCast, information on severe There are several types of landslides and several trigger mechanisms. Only certain types of landslides 35 WMO (2016b). are amenable to instrumentation and observation, 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 47 and these include slowly evolving (bedrock or soil) TABLE 8 • Debris Flow in Afghan Districts landslides, or landslides that occur in high risk moun- tainous areas after forest fires that may lead to debris District Number of Locations flows (commonly known as mudflows). Earthquakes Bamyan 31 or slope saturation by water infiltration resulting from Lal Wa Saranjal 4 precipitation, snowmelt, changes in reservoir elevation, Pashtun Kot 21 or groundwater levels can trigger rapidly evolving Darah Suf-e-Bala 59 landslides, such as bedrock slides. In conclusion, among Chah Ab 12 the different classes of landslides, only those triggered Argah Khwa 1 by water infiltration are suitable for forecasting. Faiz-Abad 26 Khash 3 The current debris-flow warning demonstration system in Southern California (U.S.) is a joint USGS and NOAA Argo 25 effort. NOAA’s system is based on techniques derived Yamgan 31 from the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) approach and Qaysar 6 requires observation of past debris flows to calibrate Total 219 the system. In operation, the system has demonstrated Source: Deltares (2016). that providing reliable debris-flow forecasts still has a long way to go. USGS is currently developing new mechanistic models based more on the physical landslide depends not only on the local geological characteristics of the terrain and properties of the and morphological conditions of the terrain, but also precipitation events and soil moisture status rather on very localized factors causing heavy infiltration of than on more empirical approaches used in the FFG. water into the soil. In Afghanistan, due to the low forest cover over most While it is feasible to forecast floods using basin of the country, debris flows occur in non-burned areas. precipitation estimates, forecasting debris flows, and The location of the debris flow is highly dependent to a lesser extent flash floods, requires high-resolution on very small-scale features of the terrain and the precipitation estimates, which are only achievable from precipitation event. Fine-scale information on soils is radar or satellite observations. The localized nature of difficult to obtain, and high resolution precipitation debris-flow generation requires a high-spatial resolu- imagery requires radar observations. Those are not tion observation network for precipitation, like that available in Afghanistan; however, satellite-based obtained from weather radars. But debris flows occur precipitation observations in near-real time can help in mountainous areas, and it is precisely in those areas develop this forecast in the future. The Multi-Hazard where ground-based radar observations tend to have Risk Assessment report identified 219 debris flows in problems from the blocking effect of the mountains. 11 districts in Afghanistan (Table 8). Hopefully, real-time precipitation observations from satellites will improve in the coming years and provide Even though precipitation is the main driver of debris- the required high-resolution spatial imagery. flow generation, prior soil moisture also plays a role. Therefore, in addition to the standard weather stations, Any type of landslide forecasting capability requires there is a need for monitoring soil moisture at different coordination among AMD (weather observations and depths. It is virtually impossible to select a priori where forecasting, remote sensing), MEW (water infiltration, debris flows will occur in Afghanistan (Figure 32). snow observations, runoff forecasts), MAIL (land use, land cover), Afghan Geological Survey (geologic condi- Debris flows, unlike floods and avalanches, permanently tions, lithology, soil cover) and MPW (road infrastructure). change the affected terrain, so setting up observation networks on past debris-flow sites may not yield Afghanistan currently does not have a capability for valuable information. Further, debris-flow landslides landslide forecasting. Although the science of landslide may stop moving before reaching the bottom of the forecasting is still under development, an appropriate slope. This implies that the location of a debris-flow strategy for landslide problems exists. This involves the 48  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 32 • Landslide Locations Source: Deltares (2016). use of a digital terrain model and a GIS-based analysis There is no avalanche forecast service in Afghanistan. of soil conditions and slope conditions in relationship Likewise, there appears to be no snow observation to the storage capacity of upper soil layers and the stations dedicated for the prediction of avalanches, depth of surface runoff that could be expected. In this with the exception of two stations provided to MPW way, the most endangered sites could be identified. A by ORS on the Salang Pass. To develop an effective terrain analysis could be done from time to time using avalanche forecasting service in Afghanistan, the LiDAR to monitor the changes in landslide risk. The number of stations need to be increased to cover all existing debris-flow demonstration systems worldwide high-risk areas (high probability of occurrence and a (NOAA-USGS Debris Flow Task Force, 2005) have not high cost in terms of lives or property losses). The new been deployed in Afghanistan. stations should measure the parameters specific to snow avalanche triggering as mentioned above. Given that avalanches tend to recur in the same geographical Avalanches area, it is possible to prioritize needed locations for Avalanches are a major source of deaths and property new stations. damage in Afghanistan, though of negligible impact on transportation infrastructure. The main factors in Droughts avalanche generation include snow depth and profile, fresh snowfall, and wind speed and direction. USAID, USGS, NOAA, NASA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and two private organizations WRD-MEW collects data for snow depth and glaciers (Kimetrica and Chemonics) work with local govern- from five river basins. Remote sensing is used to monitor ments and NGOs to assess the risks of food shortages snow cover with support from ICIMOD. Their purpose, in Afghanistan through FEWS NET. The Standard however, is directed toward water supply forecasts and Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity not necessarily toward avalanche forecasting or early Index (PDSI) and the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) are warning. Deltares (2016) notes that the current 30 snow used. The fourth drought index that may be suitable stations available in Afghanistan are insufficient for for Afghanistan is the Normalized Deficit Vegetation nationwide avalanche assessment. The report provides Index (NDVI), which is based on satellite observations a list of data relevant to snow avalanche hazards and and assessment of vegetation health. FEWS NET risk mapping and modeling, including topographic, produces both observations and forecasts and relies meteorological, cadastral, and statistical datasets. heavily on satellite-based observations, which makes 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 49 it particularly suited for Afghanistan, given the sparsity Collaboration among AMD (with the development of of ground-based observations in the country. These RCD), MEW, and MAIL should enable the development products, however, do not provide the necessary of an effective drought forecasting service, covering resolution for the relevant institutions to plan mitigating the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological actions ahead of drought. Observations are provided droughts. The three agencies together can capture by NASA (SWE), NOAA (rainfall, temperature) and the information needed for the forecast, but no one the USGS (NDVI). It is essential to build the technical single agency can do so by itself. capacity of the AMD staff so they can use and build on this information. An important requirement for 6.7.2 VERY SHORT- AND SHORT-RANGE AMD is developing monthly and seasonal long-range FORECASTING SYSTEMS weather forecasting by applying the Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) methods to provide detailed and Other than a plain language, three-day forecast pro- accurate representation of localized extreme climate duced in Dari (Figure 33), until quite recently AMD had events, and training of staff in downscaling of climate no weather forecasting system specifically developed models techniques. FIGURE 33 • Sample Three-Day Forecast Produced by AMD METEOROLOGICAL APPEARANCE According to recent evaluations Northeast and Eastern part of Afghanistan will be affected by rain. WARNING: Cloud Cover and Wind Speed and Direction in Afghanistan: Kabul KABUL Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 3–6 knot from NNW direction. Central Zone Ghazni Will be sunny. Wind speed is 4–6 knot from NW. Bamyan Will be sunny. Wind speed will be 3–4 knot from NNW direction. North Zone Maimana Will be sunny. Wind speed will be 4–5 knot from W. Mazar-e-Sharif Will be partly sunny. Wind speed is 15 knot from WSW direction. North East Zone Faizabad Will be sunny. Wind speed will be between 6–7 knot from W. Kunduz Will be cloudy. Wind speed is between 5–6 knot from SW direction. West Zone Cheghcheran Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 5–6 knot from NE direction. Herat Is expected to be sunny. Wind speed is 15–21 knot from NE direction. South West Zone Lashkargah Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 4–5 knot from S direction. Farah Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 16–18 knot from N. Kandahar Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 7–8 knot from NNE direction. East Zone Gardiz Will be sunny. Wind speed will be 8 knot from N. JalalAbad Will be sunny. Wind speed is between 13–15 knot from WNW direction. Source: AMD (2018). 50  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP for Afghanistan. Those plain language forecasts have flat coastal plains) with varying potential for droughts, now been expanded upon slightly for select cities (see floods, or other extreme events. http://www.amd.gov.af/). While GCMs can provide projections of how the climate India is keen to play a key part in AMD’s develop- of the earth may change in the future, the impacts of a ment. AMD has signed an agreement with the India changing climate and the adaptation strategies required Meteorological Department (IMD), National Center for to deal with them occur on regional and national scales. Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF), Regional This is where Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) provides projections with much more detail and more and Ministry of Earth Science for a five-year special accurate representation of localized extreme events. program designed for AMD rehabilitation including This supports more detailed impact and adaptation equipment and training of AMD staff. In turn, India assessments and planning. There is a lack of capability requires AMD to distribute synoptic meteorologi- in medium- and long-range forecasting in Afghanistan cal observation data to IMD to assimilate within its to provide users such as the agriculture, energy, health, meteorological network.36 and transport sectors as well as disaster management with forecasts and outlooks necessary for planning As part of its future development, AMD should have a and operation purposes. communications infrastructure that supports transmit- ting weather forecasts to stakeholders such as ANDMA, MEW, MAIL, and MPW. 6.8 Current System 6.7.3 MEDIUM- AND LONG-RANGE Figure 17 in this Road Map presented the system-of- FORECASTING SYSTEMS system concept in the structure and functioning of a modern NMHS. Figure 34 reflects an analysis of AMD’s Medium-range forecasts cover up to 10 days ahead. current system of systems in producing and delivering Long-range forecasts (LRF) are monthly and seasonal hydromet products. It is assumed that AMD has access forecasts that are required for planning purposes to the meteorological data collected by WRD-MEW in different sectors. LRFs are available on several and MAIL, hence the green area in the “external data websites. The ECMWF website includes EUROSIP systems.” The approximate capabilities for each system products, which are multi-model seasonal forecasts are indicated as percentages in Table 9 relative to a from the ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, U.S. full capacity (100 percent), for example in accessing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency National and using global NWP systems or providing a full suite Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP) of PWS to all users. This figure highlights gaps in the and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The WMO present AMD system and provides insight into areas Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model that require investment for improved service delivery. Ensemble (https://www.wmolc.org/) provides access to the 12  Global Producing Centers for long-range A similar system of systems for hydrological and flood forecasts. A global climate model (GCM) can provide forecasting services shows the status of the MEW reliable prediction information on scales of around production and service delivery systems and the 1,000 km 3 1,000 km, covering what could be a vastly associated enabling environments of capacity building differing landscape (e.g., from very mountainous to and technical capabilities (Figure 35). The approximate capabilities for each system are indicated in Table 10. 36 Met Office (2012). 6. CURRENT STATUS OF AMD, WRD-MEW, AND STAKEHOLDERS 51 FIGURE 34 • AMD System of Systems, Current Capacity Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hazard Public weather Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems G2G disaster Nowcasting system National data systems management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range system governments forecasting system G2G agriculture service system Upper air systems Nowcasting model Short-range system forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system energy management businesses services system Hydro modeling Medium-range systems forecasting system Data management and archiving systems G2G and G2B aviation Long-range services system ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Met/hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system (courtesy David Rogers 2018). TABLE 9 • AMD System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%) Objective and Impact Monitoring Forecasting Service Quality and Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Capacity Building Global data Global NWP Severe hazard Public weather Institutional Data communication Met/hydro institutional forecasting services management education and training 30% 20% 10% 20% 30% 10% 20% National data: Regional NWP Very short-range Agricultural Operational Computing hardware Surface obs. forecasting service management and software 40% 30% 30% 30% 10% 10% Data management Short-range Water and power Communications and archiving forecasting management service 10% 10% 30% 30% External data 50% 52  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 35 • MEW System of Systems, Current Capacity Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hydro hazard Public hydrological Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems Nowcasting system/ G2G disaster National data systems flash flood guidance management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range flood system governments forecasting system G2G agriculture service system Hydro modeling Short-range flood systems forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system power management businesses services system Medium-range flood Data management forecasting system and archiving systems Long-range flood ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system. (courtesy David Rogers 2018). TABLE 10 • MEW System of Systems, Approximate Current Capacity (%) Objective and Impact Monitoring Forecasting Service Quality and Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Capacity Building Global data system Hydro Public Institutional Data communication Met/hydro institutional modeling hydrological management education and training 30% services 40% 20% 35% 50% 20–30% National data: Seasonal Agricultural Operational Computing hardware surface obs. (medium-range) service management and software forecasting 70% 20–30% 40% 30% 30% Data management Water and power Communications and archiving management service 40% 40% 20–30% External data Disaster management 40% service 20–30%  53 7. MODERNIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS 7.1 Value Chain Approach (EWS). Producing and disseminating warnings that are targeted to the impacted areas and populations are the main mandate of any NMHS. The introduction of Stakeholder requests for improved AMD and WRD- impact-based forecasting and warning services is the MEW forecast and warning services clearly reflect the way of future NMHS operations in collaboration with need to modernize the two departments’ infrastruc- relevant government organizations and especially the tures beyond just the observation and data-gathering NHS and ANDMA. The public will need to be educated systems. Fit-for-purpose services are the priority of and the emergency management authorities will all users (Photo 3). For both AMD and WRD-MEW need to be trained on the potential impacts of severe identification of the users of their services and users’ hydrometeorological events to take protective actions. needs is a first step in the modernization of these orga- nizations. A well-planned and organized NMHS should Given all the arguments in its favor, modernizing a play a key role in early warning systems and services NMHS has proved to be a complex, time-consuming Photo 3: Modern Forecaster Workstation in Cambodia Source: Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013). 54  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP and expensive task in many countries, including three components of observations, telecommunica- developed economies. The modernization of the U.S. tions, and data processing and forecasting together National Weather Service took over 10 years and cost comprise the WMO World Weather Watch Program. US$4.5 billion.37 A detailed account of the modern- ization of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)38 The Global Observing System, although extremely provides a wealth of experience and guidance for complex, is perhaps one of the most ambitious and countries intending to embark on such a modernization. successful instances of international collaboration in To this end, before proposing modernization activities the last 100 years. The system consists of a multitude for the AMD and WRD-MEW, it would be reasonable of individual observing systems owned and oper- to present a brief description of the main elements of ated by many national and international agencies. a well-functioning NMHS. The Global Telecommunication System (GTS) is the communications and data management component The operation of a NMHS in any country is based on that allows the World Weather Watch to collect and observations and data collection; data processing; distribute information critical to its processes. The telecommunications; preparation of forecasts, warn- GTS is implemented and operated by the NMHSs of ings, and climate advisories; and dissemination of WMO members and by intergovernmental organiza- forecasts and other specialized information through tions, such as ECMWF and the EUMETSAT. The GTS the media and other channels to users (Figure 36). also supports other programs, facilitating the flow of No country is alone in undertaking these tasks; the data and processed products to meet WMO members’ combination of many networks, centers, and hubs on requirements in a timely, reliable and cost-effective global, regional, and national scales form the intricately way. It ensures that all members have full access to interconnected world of global hydrometeorology. The meteorological and related data, forecasts, and alerts. The Global Observing System evolved into the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) and the FIGURE 36 • Schematic of Global Observing, GTS expanded into the WMO Information System (WIS). Telecommunication, Data Processing, Forecasting and Dissemination System The Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) encompasses all forecasting systems operated by WMO members. It enables members to make use of the advances in NWP by providing a framework for sharing data related to operational hydrology, meteorology, and oceanography. The main support for the exchange and delivery of these data is the WIS. The value of the products and services of NMHSs is manifested in the way they are used by the recipients. The generation of meteorological and hydrological value can be depicted in a “value chain”39 linking the production and delivery of services to user decisions and the outcomes and values resulting from those decisions (Figure 37). Potential value is added at each link of the chain (moving from left to right in Figure 37) as services are received by users and incorporated into or considered in decisions. Value adding processes Source: Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013). involve tailoring services to more specialized applica- Note: Compilation of different systems of observation, telecommunication, data processing, forecasting, and dissemination tions and decisions (i.e., making the information more based on the WMO World Weather Watch System. relevant and trustworthy) or expanding the reach of an information product to ever-greater audiences (e.g., 37 Ibid. 38 World Bank (2017). 39 WMO, World Bank/GFDRR, USAID (2015). 7. MODERNIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS 55 FIGURE 37 • Hydromet Production Value Chain Processing and data management Weather Service Climate Observations Modeling Forecasting delivery Water Research and development CO M M U N I C AT I O N P R O C E S S E S Weather SERVICE Basic and VALUE User decisions Climate PRODUCTION specialized services Benefits and Outcomes Water NMHS and commercial and Processing & data management Weather Climate Observation Modeling Forecasting Service actions providers delivery Water Research & development costs VA LU E A D D I N G P R O C E S S E S Source: WMO, World Bank/GFDRR, USAID (2015). public, decision makers, and clients). In a modernized, Such improvement requires the integration of five well-functioning NMHS, every link in this chain is strong, essential elements in the monitoring program of helping to deliver value to the society at the end of the an NMHS,41 as follows: quality management system chain. In contrast, in a less developed NMHS, the chain (QMS), network design, technology, training, and data often stops at observation or forecasting without a management. Network design has to be an ongoing robust modeling and service delivery capability, and a process based on user needs, with new stations being broken link somewhere in the value chain would result established and existing stations being discontinued in producing suboptimal, and in worst case, no value as program priorities and funding evolve. Selecting the at all to the society. best technology for data sensing at a given location is a very complex task. There are many technologies Modernizing NMHSs cannot be piecemeal, however it available and for each combination of these tech- could be implemented in a phased approach stretched nologies, there are numerous vendors and products over a number of years as long as the initial plan takes available. Network operators must consider additional into consideration every component of every system factors such as reliability, reporting accuracy, costs, and the level of improvement needed. In the end of operation and maintenance requirements, durability, the implementation of the plan, the process should be and site specifications. Data management ensures the transformative, ensuring NMHSs can deliver the services proper storing, validating, analyzing, and reporting of stakeholders expect.40 As part of its modernization, vast amounts of data and establishes the validity of significant improvement of interrelated elements of the data by providing evidence of compliance with meteorological and hydrological monitoring networks, the QMS. Finally, no investment in technology can forecasting, and service delivery is necessary. This compensate deficits in human capacities for which includes new technologies for data sensing and continuous training is essential. Figure 39 gives an recording, data validation and archiving, and modern overview of the flow of data and information in modern scientific-based tools for forecasting, dissemination, and hydrometeorological services. communication of products and services (Figure 38). 40 Rogers et al. (mimeo). 41 Hamilon (2012). 56  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 38 • Schematic of NMHS Modernization Information utilization and decision making Monitoring network design Information dissemination based on user requirements Modernization NMHS Data synthesis and analysis Data sensing and (incl. modeling, forecasting) recording Data validation and archiving Source: Courtesy Andreas Schumann 2017. FIGURE 39 • Data Flow in Hydrometeorological Services User community Objectives Natural Data for operational meteorological and purposes hydrological characteristics Technologies, depending on Network design —reliability Dissemination of —program priorities —accuracy information —new stations —control and maintenance —closure of stations —specific local site factors —costs of ownerships Data collection Meteorological and hydrological information Quality management system e.g., forecasts, statistics, real-time data Data management system Source: Courtesy Andreas Schumann (2017). 7. MODERNIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS 57 The socioeconomic benefits of modernization will be and global products to ensure cost-effective system manifested in managing risk and aiding decision mak- development and area coverage. In addition, there is ing in (i) weather-related disasters and (ii) economic enough information to allow MEW to potentially issue development. This is especially the case for floods, long-range forecasts on drought. Both the USAID/ which have the biggest impact on the poor and vulner- NASA SERVIR project and USAID/IMMAP offer many able populations. Improving the forecasting and early opportunities for MAIL and MEW as well as AMD to warning of hydrometeorological hazards will contribute use, coordinate, and share geospatial information and to building resilience for communities and sectors at satellite data essential to enhance each institution’s risk. A substantial modernization program for any observation network. The database proposed by NMHS should typically include three components,42 JICA HYMEP should serve as a good working model namely: (i) enhancement of service delivery systems; to expand into a national hydromet database and (ii) institutional strengthening and capacity build- link in ANDMA and MRRD for EW and dissemina- ing; and (iii) modernization of observation, ICT, and tion purposes. The scope of the database should be forecasting infrastructure. The activities proposed in expanded to receive data/information from AMD, the subsequent sections are in line with this principle. MEW, MAIL, and MPW, as well the following portals: They aim to strengthen the AMD and WRD-MEW’s SERVIR, Afghanistan Spatial Data Center, and FEWS institutional basis: to enhance a legal and regulatory NET data. A more detailed description of the existing framework and to develop the capacity of staff; to regional and international initiatives is provided below. technically modernize the observation, ICT, data management, and hydromet forecasting infrastructure 7.2.1 REGIONAL INITIATIVES and facilities; and, most importantly, to improve the delivery of hydromet and EWS to the Afghan people • FEWS NET applies satellite-based observations to and weather-dependent sectors. develop precipitation maps, soil moisture maps, and regional forecasts, which makes it particularly suited for Afghanistan, given the sparsity of ground-based 7.2 Development Partners observations in the country. FEWS NET provides information to potentially allow Afghanistan agencies and Cooperation to issue long-range forecasts on drought. Satellite data is valuable for MAIL in providing a view of crop There are a number of ongoing initiatives that aim at and water conditions across the entire country at strengthening early warning systems and hydromet a single glance. MAIL has been supported by Food services in Afghanistan. It is therefore crucial that and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FEWS NET, planned initiatives will build upon the activities and and SERVIR to develop agricultural drought early achievements of ongoing projects such as those being warning, agro-crop models for crop forecasting and implemented through USAID/WMO, World Bank Irri- pest and disease early warning. MEW has been using gation Restoration and Development Project (IRDP), FEWS NET maps for its seasonal runoff forecast on USAID/FEWS NET, USAID/NASA SERVIR, USAID/ a single basin, as well as the FEWS NET project SWE Information Management and Mine Action Program maps to forecast water availability. FEWS NET makes (IMMAP) and JICA HYMEP. available digital maps of the snow properties (SWE and snow cover area), which are directly readable by Any new project for modernizing AMD would benefit GIS. While FEWS NET provides a large-scale overview from consolidating the achievements so far of the of the drought situation, more detailed and higher USAID/WMO project to strengthen early warnings of resolution information is needed to more effectively hydromet hazards and by taking into consideration aid in planning and decision-making purposes and the AMD’s five-year strategic plan (2017–21). Similarly, for issuing accurate warnings. there is significant opportunity for coordinating and • SERVIR and ICIMOD empower decision makers consolidation of resources with the ongoing World Bank with tools, products, and services to act locally on IRDP, which is considering the effective use of regional climate-sensitive issues such as hydromet-related disasters, agriculture, water, ecosystems, and land 42 Rogers and Tsirkunov (2013). use. The availability of remote sensing products from 58  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FEWS NET, SERVIR, and ICIMOD are greatly accel- • The Global Disaster Alerts and Coordination System erating the use of such products for hydromet and (GDACS), developed by the Joint Research Centre EW services in Afghanistan. These products should of the European Commission and used jointly be used in conjunction with climate downscaling by the European Commissions and the United techniques to produce more detailed information Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitar- on smaller scales to increase their usefulness. ian Affairs (OCHA) is a fully automatic 24/7 alert system which gathers data about natural severe • In addition, JICA HYMEP is supporting MEW in events (earthquakes, tsunamis, tropical storms, developing other products such as runoff analysis, floods, and volcanoes). GDACS collects near-real flow duration curves, flood and rainfall frequency time hazard information and combines this with analysis, basin average rainfall, and basin water bal- demographic and socioeconomic data to perform ance. The World Bank IRDP is planning to support an analysis of the expected impact. This is based MEW in developing hydromet information products on the magnitude of the event and possible risk for river basin planning, dam development and opera- for the population. The result of this risk analysis tion, flood risk management, and irrigation planning. is distributed by the GDACS website and alerts are sent via e-mail, fax and SMS to subscribers in the 7.2.2 INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES disaster relief community and all other persons that are interested in this information. There are a number of ongoing international initiatives for remote sensing that offer potential benefits for Additional initiatives include UNOSAT, DLR-ZKI, Afghanistan’s hydromet and EW systems and services: SERTIT, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) of • The United Nations Platform for Space-based the European Commission and the European Space information for Disaster Management and Emer- Agency (ESA), PREVIEW (Prevention, Information and gency Response (UN-SPIDER) was established in Early Warning pre-operational services to support the 2006 to provide information for humanitarian aid management of risks), LIMES (Land and Sea Integrated and emergency response, with a particular focus Monitoring for Environment and Security), GMOSS on assisting developing countries to gain access (Global Monitoring for Security and Stability), SAFER to satellite data for emergency preparedness and (Services and Applications For Emergency Response), response needs. and G-MOSAIC (GMES services for Management of • The FAO Global Information and Early Warning Operations, Situation Awareness and Intelligence for System (GIEWS), established in the wake of the regional Crises). world food crisis of the early 1970s, provides information on food production and food security Clearly, guidance is required for officials in Afghanistan and consists of a worldwide network including to identify relevant information and application for 115 governments, 61 nongovernmental organizations specific needs of the country. (NGOs) and numerous trades, research, and media organizations.  59 8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW R ecognizing that cultural change in institutions Such institutional modernization generally requires takes time, the proposed Road Map represents decades, far beyond the normal life cycle of individual the first step in a planned long-term engagement development projects. Time is required to allow proper on hydromet modernization. The resulting project capacity building for the staff of these organizations needs to lay a strong foundation that can be developed to take ownership of the investments in new equip- over time. This is especially true since in general, in ment and technologies and how best to use this new various government ministries in Afghanistan, there is knowledge. insufficient understanding of the role that AMD and WRD-MEW can play in many areas of the development Some of the challenges that exist in most countries of the country.43 An iterative approach to integrating relate to the gap between providers and users of projects, including inter-ministry mentoring, will hydrometeorological services leading to miscom- help raise the confidence levels of other sectors that munications and misunderstandings between the two MEW and AMD can take care of meteorological and sides. To close this gap, it is essential to create and hydrological data production, storage, management, deepen the understanding of who the users are, what and use. This may also help the government recognize they need, and how NMHSs can meet those needs. It that some water and agricultural management funding is critical that the design and updating of monitoring should, in proportion, be channeled to build the National networks be coordinated with the user community, Meteorological and Hydrological Services. so as to achieve an integrated network that supports users’ requirements for services. Assessing demands A modernization program for any NMHS should and priorities with current and potential users is not include the three interrelated groups of activities easy. It is encouraging to note that some effort has been or components: (i) enhancement of service delivery made in Afghanistan to identify the various users and system; (ii)  institutional strengthening and capacity their requirements for hydrometeorological information. building; and (iii) modernization of observation, ICT, In many countries, decision makers assume existing and forecasting infrastructure. These components meteorological and hydrological records are sufficient are described in some detail in the case of AMD and to resolve most of the present problems. Under a WRD-MEW. changing climate, however, it is no longer possible to assume the future record will follow the historical record. An integrated national policy for meteorological 8.1 Delivery of Services and hydrological services is essential to deliver these services in a better and more user-targeted manner. AMD and WRD-MEW should evolve from data provid- The objective under this component of the Road ers to demand- and user-driven, knowledge-based Map is to enhance the AMD and WRD-MEW service organizations that emphasize service provision across delivery systems by developing a national Strategy for many socioeconomic sectors, while strengthening Service Delivery (SSD); enhancing public weather and their capacity for technical and scientific activities. hydrological services; strengthening end-to-end early warning systems and services, including impact-based forecast and warning services; developing agriculture 43 Met Office (2012). 60  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP and climate advisory services; and creating a National to develop and implement a strategy for service Framework for Climate Services. This provides for the delivery with the engagement of service providers, implementation of a systematic upgrade of the weather, stakeholders, and users. The strategy should outline climate, and hydrological-related end-to-end services user needs; priorities for needed products and services; provided to all agencies, communities, and individu- design and generation of those products and services; als. The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its dissemination of products and delivery of services; Implementation Plan (the Strategy) provide in-depth evaluation of the impact of the new products and and step-by-step guidance to enhance and develop services on the country; and improvement of products service delivery.44 The Strategy describes a continu- and services.45 Since user needs change periodically, ous cycle of four stages that define the framework existing and potential new key users should be surveyed for service delivery and identifies six elements that on a regular basis. It is widely accepted that it is no detail the activities required for high-quality service longer sufficient for NMHSs to employ good science delivery (Figure 40). and provide accurate forecasts; they also need to engage the public and more specialized users through Annex 2 shows the Service Delivery Progress Model as educating and informing them in how to make the best illustrated in the Strategy. It should be noted that this use of scientific endeavors. It is essential that a user model is applicable to all types of services provided database be maintained and updated. The products by NMHSs. and services required by the users should become part of WRD-MEW and AMD and its stakeholders’ Such a shift to user-based products and service delivery strategic planning. requires a mechanism to facilitate communication and understanding between the meteorological and The existing cooperation between AMD and WRD- hydrological service providers and the user sectors. MEW is an excellent starting point and may be used Establishing a hydrometeorological user group is a to identify the products and services that could useful tool for this purpose. The user group needs be provided in a collaborative approach by both 44 WMO (2014). 45 Ibid. FIGURE 40 • Stages and Elements of Hydrometeorological Service Delivery The four stages of a continuous, cyclic process for developing and delivering services are: (1) User engagement and (2) Service design and 1 2 developing partnerships development (4) Evaluation and (3) Delivery improvement 4 3 The six elements necessary for moving toward a more service-oriented culture are: Evaluate user needs Sustain improved 1 and decisions 4 service delivery Link service development and Develop skills needed to sustain 2 delivery to user needs 5 service delivery Evaluate and monitor service Share best practices and 3 performance and outcomes 6 knowledge Source: WMO (2014). 8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW 61 organizations based on users’ needs. A successful Although there is no fixed optimum pattern to follow example of such an approach is the UK Met Office Flood in the establishment of a national flood forecasting Forecast Centre (FFC) at their Exeter Headquarters. center, the following capacities must be available: In April 2009, the Environmental Agency and the UK • Hydrological forecasters and modelers; Met Office established a joint operations center for flood warnings and related extreme weather events. • Meteorological forecasters (in case of the meteo- This development was a response to serious flooding rological and water management being separated, events in the country in 2007, which raised concerns the meteorologists involved should have specific over high-level coordination. Both organizations understanding of hydrological requirements); undertook to combine their expertise to find a better • IT and operational technical communication; means of providing the most complete assessment of operational flood risk, from the developing weather • Communications with the media, public, and the conditions through to the actual flooding event itself. government; The combined expertise of the Environment Agency • Management and administration; and and the Met Office is used to forecast river, tidal, and coastal flooding, as well as extreme rainfall that • Research and development. may lead to surface flooding. The FFC provides the following services: It is now recognized that the importance of flood forecasting and warning as a process in managing • Extreme rainfall alert services; flood risk and impact requires a full-time and structured • National flood guidance statements; and organizational approach. It is no longer something that can be added on as a temporary contingency operation • Web service. within an organization fulfilling other primary roles, for example public works or municipalities. The FFC provides daily routine weather forecasts for the Environment Agency and a daily flood guidance A collaborative partnership between AMD and WRD- statement for the main civil responders. When heavy MEW, based on user requirements might result in the rainfall is either forecast or occurring, the center also hydrological partner (WRD-MEW) providing services, provides a range of precipitation forecasts for the including:46 Environment Agency and also extreme rainfall alerts to the civil contingency responders. • Water-related data and observations obtained from hydrological observing network; • Water-related information such as a compre- Photo 4. Flood Forecasting Center, Met Office, hensive assessment of national water resources, United Kingdom the statistics of flood events or maps of spatial/ temporal trends; • A monitoring service designed to provide very specific data or information at a particular location for a particular user (e.g., to indicate when the remaining discharge, influenced by water extrac- tions, falls below a specified minimum value); • Knowledge and understanding of water-related phenomena and water resources; • Advice on decision making, where information is developed into recommendations for response to certain conditions (e.g., an evolving drought); and Source: Haleh Kootval (2018). 46 WMO (2009). 62  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP • Setting up a model- and database-driven meth- Photo 5. Modern Public Weather Service Delivery odology to estimate water balances since reliable in Indonesia estimates of water balance are a service required by many users and should be developed through joint interdisciplinary efforts of experts in geo- informatics, hydrology, meteorology, and water management. This requires an exchange of informa- tion between sectors and capacity building of staff. Similarly, the meteorological partner (AMD) might provide services, including: • Weather-related data and observations from meteo- rological observing network that provides specific data at a particular location on agreed atmospheric elements based on established practices by WMO; • Weather forecasts at various timescales (nowcast- ing, very short-, short-, medium-, and long-range Source: Haleh Kootval (2018). based on available capacity) based on user needs and severe weather warnings; and partners and stakeholders, permitting clear decision • Advice on the impact of the weather conditions making and timely action. Implementing PWS and (both severe and routine conditions) on different hydrological services effectively at AMD and WRD-MEW stakeholders and decision-making guidance for would ensure that all users receive timely information users. on all timescales available. Implementing formal and regular feedback mechanisms should also be part of the successful delivery of public and hydrological services. 8.1.1 STRENGTHENING PUBLIC WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES The wide dissemination of hydrometeorological data, forecasts, and warnings to all users is a key element of The public weather service (PWS) is the main channel modern delivery of public and hydrological services. used by NMHSs for liaising with the public, the media, An essential tool is the AMD and WRD-MEW websites and the sectors impacted by weather and climate. It for access to important meteorological and hydrologi- is the principal interface between the technical pro- cal information needed by the user community. The vider of weather and related products and the users. websites should be managed on an operational basis It interprets and translates technical meteorological and kept up to date. Consideration should be given to forecasts and other information into socially and developing color-coded information and pictograms, economically relevant and understandable information which are often the most effective way of communicat- and provides this information to the public at large and ing warnings. various sectors for decision making. In most countries all forecasts and warnings are disseminated from the NMHS via various channels including the media, the 8.1.2 DEVELOPING A COMPREHENSIVE web, and increasingly the social media. This informa- NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITORING tion includes both weather and hydrological forecasts. PROGRAM Under a PWS program, standard operating procedures should be developed and implemented by AMD and More comprehensive agriculture and climate advisory WRD-MEW in partnership with key stakeholders for services, including a drought monitoring program, producing and communicating fit-for-purpose services. need to be developed. This includes coordination of This is especially important in the case of warnings information and knowledge between meteorology to ensure that such information is consistent among and hydrology and establishes the drought magnitude 8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW 63 and impact information required by most users in level. Long-range water resources planning that is fully Afghanistan. The drought monitoring program, while integrated with DRM is necessary. DRM in isolation from initiated by the meteorology and hydrology service broader water resources concerns cannot be effective providers (AMD and WRD-MEW), should also include in actions for mitigating the loss of life and livelihoods. MAIL and ANDMA. Their requirements are essential The risks of droughts, floods, and climate change, which in defining drought forecasts and information linked pose threats to the security and well-being of citizens, with decision making. require shorter lead-time DRM and longer range water resources planning and management.47 8.1.3 DEVELOPMENT OF A NATIONAL In the case of Afghanistan, it seems advisable that FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES AMD and WRD-MEW focus operationally on working level links with ANDMA, MAIL, and MRRD and between A National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) themselves. In this case, there needs to be formal clarity is defined as a coordinating mechanism enabling the on the roles and responsibilities of each institution. development and delivery of climate services required Critically, an agency must be formally mandated to lead at national and local levels. There is need in each the coordination of relevant activities and set agreed country for a NFCS, guided by the Global Framework standards. This should be either AMD or WRD-MEW, for Climate Services (GFCS), involving practicalities depending on the national context and policies. and specifics for the actual delivery of services at the national level and for coordination with regional and An ACAA-endorsed stakeholder working group on global components of the GFCS. The most important meteorology will encourage buy-in from the onset aspect of the national framework is effective coordina- of development and can evolve over the medium tion at the national level to ensure the climate services term of at least five years into an owner’s council. It are authoritative, credible, and dependable, and used will encourage ministries to present meteorological to inform better decision making by the end-users. requirements to AMD and jointly agree on priorities The NFCS would involve the key national institutions while trusting AMD with the operational implementation collecting and compiling climate observations and of their own sector-specific meteorological projects other climate-related datasets as well as institutions that will, when coordinated together, build a central undertaking relevant research and providing tailored capability. Funding and ownership usually go hand in information, products, and expert advice. Most coun- hand, however, as with any other National Meteorologi- tries have created a national framework for climate cal Service, AMD’s relevance to numerous sectors and services in support of the provision of essential climate resultant multi-sector funding should be managed information and services to most social and economic carefully. This may be achieved by an arrangement sectors. In Afghanistan, the major activity under such whereby stakeholders through agreement within the a framework would potentially include support to owner’s council, provide proportionate funding toward disaster risk management (DRM), agriculture, water the operation of AMD.48 Similarly, the establishment management, energy, and public health. by MEW of a national hydrological services user group involving all stakeholders could facilitate the collec- tion of hydrological requirements and agreement on 8.2 Institutional Strengthening priorities. An alternative could be a joint hydromet user and Capacity Building group to include both meteorological and hydrological service providers as well as stakeholders and users, 8.2.1 INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING as proposed earlier in this Road Map. In most developing countries strategic policies that The main objectives of NMHSs are: to provide informa- ensure effective integration of water resources and tion on weather, climate, and hydrological conditions disaster risk management are needed. Integration is especially critical in water stressed regions that are susceptible to drought and prolonged water shortages. 47 World Bank Group (2018). Such integration is often lacking at the national policy 48 Met Office (2012). 64  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP for safety in the air, on land, and at sea; to mitigate This will lead to improved relations and increased natural disasters; to provide services to weather- demand for services. In addition, better services to sensitive economic sectors; and to support national government agencies and departments will result in development. 49 A modern NMHS performs these greater recognition of NMHSs as providers of vital functions by acquiring: services supporting the economy and society. This will enable the NMHS to build a more convincing case for • Comprehensive, high-quality and robust observa- investment to sustain and further improve the range tional networks; and quality of services. • Efficient data collection and management and rapid information exchange; A powerful tool for modern NMHSs to maximize the return on investment by ensuring optimum use of • State-of-the-art ICT and computing facilities; resources is a Concept of Operations (CONOPS). The • Sophisticated data analytics schemes and powerful CONOPS provides a conceptual overview of the system simulation and forecasting models; and subsystems in an NMHS to achieve the capabili- • Improved understanding of meteorological and ties listed above. The CONOPS is intended to support hydrological phenomena through ongoing scientific the evolution of a fully integrated, modernized, and research; functional NMHS, which provides the level of services required by its users and stakeholders. Figure 19 in • Expertise in delivering forecast and warning services this Road Map illustrates the system of systems of an based on impacts of hydrometeorological phe- NMHS supported by CONOPS. nomena, in partnership with relevant government organizations; At the moment, the AMD and WRD-MEW activities • Effective tailoring of services to user needs; mainly focus on observation and data collection. As a result of the past conflicts and ongoing limitations • Effective dissemination systems using multiple elaborated elsewhere in this Road Map, these organiza- channels to assure the widest dissemination of tions have fallen behind even in collecting critical quality warnings, forecasts, and advisory information; assured data, while producing forecasts, delivering • Efficient public and private service delivery services, and making the technological and scientific arrangements; progress needed to use best practices and standards in delivering services to a set of users based on their • Effective communication of the science and practice diverse demands have not developed. The step from of meteorology and hydrology, including limitations, data collection to information production demands a uncertainties, and applicability of the science and strengthening of the rest of the system of systems in an related technologies; integrated manner as shown in Figure 19 (i.e., modeling, • Capacity building across the entire NMHS and for forecasting, and service delivery systems supported the users and stakeholders; and by the ICT, QMS, capacity building, and technology infusion systems). The institutional strengthening • Improved methodologies and algorithms for use of component of the Road Map will aim to invest in the meteorological, hydrological, and related informa- improvement of institutional arrangements at the AMD tion in decision making. and MEW for enhancing their performance in line with international best practices. Modern NMHSs focus on understanding the user value chain to better understand users, the decisions they must make, and how information related to weather, 8.2.2 CAPACITY BUILDING climate, and hydrology is applied to minimize risk and to benefit the society as a whole (see Section 7.1, Value Building capacity to improve the sustainability of the Chain). As a result of improved service delivery, users modernization of WRD-MEW and AMD is indispens- will gain confidence in the capability of the NMHS. able and a foundation block for other systems and functions as shown in Figure 19 of this Road Map. For a strong and effective WRD-MEW and AMD, 49 WMO, World Bank/GFDRR and USAID (2015). continuous access to new skills for all staff through 8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW 65 provision of short- and long-term training courses at Afghanistan should be carefully considered to derive home and abroad and on-the-job training is essential. the optimum benefit from what is actually possible in A major challenge for WRD-MEW, AMD is to create a the country. In addition, modernization of each system strong professional meteorological and hydrological should be broken down to manageable packages for workforce for the benefit of their main stakeholders phased implementation. and other users. A steady supply of meteorologists, hydrologists, and related specialists at the B.Sc., 8.3.1 METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATION M.Sc., and higher educational level with the abilities INFRASTRUCTURE to perform at the required skill levels is required. In this regard, strengthening the hydromet programs at The increasing risks of floods and droughts because Kabul University and Kabul Polytechnic University, of climate change will require better forecasts and which are the main sources for human resources at response. While it is understood that very large AMD and WRD-MEW at present and probably in the expenditure on a Doppler radar network or consider- foreseeable future is critical. able numbers of automatic weather stations (AWSs) is not possible in the current situation due to budgetary Educating stakeholders/end-users in the application of and security constraints, modernization should focus hydrometeorological products for decision making is on rehabilitation of the existing synoptic network equally essential. The end-users’ inability to understand and eventual establishment of an upper air observ- and interpret weather and climate products for decision ing station; it also will introduce a certain degree of making in economic sectors is a limiting factor, and automation of observations to improve nowcasting user education should be implemented to overcome and very short-range forecasts. Having said that, it is this gap. Educating the public to better understand necessary to point out that a ground-based observa- warnings, probability forecasts, preparation, and tion network only provides moderate value for money awareness is very important in the last mile delivery from a weather and climate perspective. Access to and use of information, especially for flooding, which satellite technology can now provide a far better is a major hydrometeorological threat in Afghanistan. analysis of snowpack and water resource relevant for User education should include workshops, open days many sectors, except for the aviation that necessitates to encourage visits by the public, school visits, the comprehensive ground-based observation systems at distribution of flyers, publications, and public service large airports. A ground-based observational network videos, and posting educational materials on the can become high value when assimilated into a common relevant organizations’ websites and the public domain. information layer through NWP that then offers a richer, more useable, sector specific output for forecasters, or when used as ground truth to calibrate radar data. 8.3 Modernization Therefore, single (or even multiple) ground observa- of Observation Infrastructure, tion from an area of interest does not represent the full picture for, say, water management, without being Data Management Systems, used as part of a common information layer. Hence, and Forecasting all meteorological ground observations gathered within individual sector projects would be made far This component aims to upgrade and expand the more effective for Afghanistan as a whole through a meteorological, agrometeorological, and hydrological coordinating meteorological authority.50 Therefore, a observations networks and ensure that these networks careful assessment of the future needs for data may are well functioning and are interoperable; modernize result in the consideration of a reorganization of the data management, communications, and ICT systems; network, which should consider the requirements of improve weather and hydrological forecasting pro- the users and constraints due to security issues. A revi- cesses and numerical prediction systems; and refurbish sion of operational procedures should be undertaken offices and facilities. It should be noted that while the to consider the different needs for data at different following sections provide a description of the ideal cases for different systems, the particular situation of 50 Met Office (2012). 66  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP locations. Regular preventative maintenance proce- observing system all new stream gauge installations dures to be carried out by trained personnel should should also include recording rain gauges in the con- be established once the existing equipment has been tributing watersheds. Real-time access to these rainfall rehabilitated or replaced. data should be established and telemetry added to ensure that the data are automatic and operational at all times to trigger flash flood warnings. 8.3.2 HYDROLOGICAL OBSERVATION INFRASTRUCTURE 8.3.3 DATA MANAGEMENT, COMMUNICATION, While the number of gauging stations is still limited, AND ICT SYSTEM WRD-MEW is in the position to start developing basic products and services using data from the existing A readily accessible, historical, digital database of gauges. In order to do so, more real-time hydrological hydrological and meteorological parameters is urgently data are needed for water management activities and needed to develop a range of warning and forecast forecasting of floods and droughts. The extent and services related to extreme weather and flood events speed of network expansion should be proportional that impact many sectors of Afghanistan’s economy. to WRD-MEW capacity in operating and maintaining The modernization and expansion of the AMD and stations, which can be assessed through operational WRD-MEW observation network and improvement status of existing automatic stations. The real-time in forecasting and service delivery will require signifi- information is critical for the fast-responding water- cant improvements in ICT capacity. Communications sheds (with areas less than 200 square kilometers) and equipment and computers, harmonized database for flash flood forecasting. The hydrometric network management systems for weather, climate, and hydro- equipment needs to be upgraded to include float- logical data, including servers, software, web access, operated shaft encoders, data loggers, and sustainable and social media, and AMD remote sensing and GIS, date transmission mechanisms to ensure that the early including the satellite downlink system, will be needed warning systems can function properly. A revision of to establish a modern software/hardware environment. the operating procedures is necessary to consider the Such an environment will provide efficient and timely needs at different locations. The need for operational collection of data from the observational network and data at the existing stream gauge sites and for data will speed up reception and processing of information loggers should be assessed. products from leading international meteorological centers enabling higher resolution products and more Modernization of the hydrological observing network information to be available to AMD forecasters. will allow the rehabilitation and technical re-equipping of the hydrological and sediment network, including 8.3.4 METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING the field communication network, and the provision of special equipment for hydrological measurements (e.g., Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) coupled to an Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADPC), boats, cur- extensive in-situ and remote-sensing observational net- rent meters, laboratory equipment, and stream gauges work (satellite, radar, upper air, and ground) underpins equipped with data transmission). Regular preventative the information layer of an NMHS and foundation of and operational maintenance programs for all equipment modern forecasting. It is a cost and resource intensive need to be in place after modernizing the network. business because at its fully developed mode, it requires multimillion-dollar super-computer infrastructure Strengthening the status of data logging and trans- (with associated research and technical support). It is mission will allow the provision of reliable end-to-end arguable whether Afghanistan would need to develop data communication, the delivery of forecast and such a high degree of capability in the foreseeable warning services to users and the implementation future as many developed NMHSs are opening up of operational deterministic flood models. WMO’s their information provision to assist less developed recommended guidelines on establishing operating countries. In addition, different model outputs from and maintenance (O&M) programs of NMHSs should be various global and regional centers are accessible to taken into consideration. In a modernized hydrological 8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW 67 nearly all countries. It is vital that the best possible Climate Downscaling (RCD) techniques, which will training be provided in developing countries to extract allow it to provide high resolution climate information optimum benefit from all the available and accessible on a more regional and national scale and with much tools as part of their modernization strategies. greater detail and more accurate representation of localized extreme events. Current forecasting at the AMD is based on output from METCAP+, a visualization tool designed to be 8.3.5 HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING AND a complete working environment for the operational HYDROLOGICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM forecaster. The results of blending the in-situ, remote- sensing and model data are to produce three-day Flood forecasting and warning as a focused activity in forecasts for a few cities in Afghanistan. No objective the hydrometeorological sector is a relatively recent verification of forecasts is performed, although some development. This may be an evidence of the growing verification of forecast precipitation and temperature seriousness of flood impacts, both as a result of greater is performed against observations for 15 cities. No financial investment and increased population. Flood nowcasts, and medium- or long-range forecasts are forecasting requires an understanding of both meteo- produced. As part of the longer term modernization rological and hydrological behavior for the particular plans for AMD, it is necessary to establish a compre- conditions of the country in question. While the ultimate hensive process for operational weather forecast- responsibility lies with the appropriate government ing as is practiced in a well-functioning developing agencies at a national level, the information needs to be national forecast center. Such a modernization process made available at more localized levels, such as a river will allow access to NWP digital data and products basin or a center of population. To form an effective (short-, medium-, extended- and long-range fore- real-time forecasting system, the basic structures need casts) from a global center (e.g., ECMWF) and move to be linked together in an organized manner. The main from deterministic to ensemble prediction systems components of a modern and well-functioning national (EPS) for production of probabilistic forecasts; the flood forecasting and warning system include:51 required software for data handling (license); NWP dynamic downscaling (including data assimilation), • Establishment of a network of automatic or manual production of regional and site-specific forecasts and hydrometric stations linked to a central control by uninterrupted broadband Internet. While access to the some form of telemetry to collect real-time data ECMWF Global Model digital data (9 km resolution) for the prediction of flood severity; will represent a great step forward for AMD, it should • Provision of rainfall forecasts (quantity and timing) be noted that the required license costs €42,000 for which NWP models are necessary; (approx. US$51,400) per year. Other tools for the modernization of forecasting will include forecaster • Flood forecasting model software linked to the workstation software products, implementation of observing network and operating in real time; real-time forecast process monitoring and verification, • Preparation of forecast information and warning NWP post-processing, nowcasting and impact-based messages, including expected impact; forecasting techniques. Training is required both in the use and interpretation of these products and tools, as • Dissemination and communication of such messages well as in the overall forecasting process supported including what action should be taken; by standard operating procedures (SOP). • Interpretation of the forecast and flood observa- tions to determine impacts on communities and In addition to the short-range forecasts, there is a need infrastructure; to develop (monthly and seasonal) long-range forecasts (LRF). The AMD should be able to access LRFs, for • Response to the warnings by the agencies and example on the ECMWF website, and on the WMO Lead communities involved; and Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble • Review of the warning system and improvement (at https://www.wmolc.org/) which provides access as necessary after the flood events. to LRFs from 12 Global Producing Centers. The AMD should eventually develop expertise also in Regional 51 WMO (2011). 68  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP Many rivers normally pass over flood-affected areas and quality monitoring equipment coupled to current river therefore river management will contribute to managing flow measuring stations on a priority basis, training the flood risk. A Decision Support System (DSS) which and capacity building of the staff for the above tasks, integrates all the key basins and provides the basin scale and improving the communication system for effective rainfall forecasts, and hydrological forecast at selected sharing of data. locations, will be useful for various purposes including flood forecasting, irrigation management, and reservoir Introduction of hydrological forecasting in Afghanistan operations. Inflow forecasting with enough lead time is crucial to respond to requirements from many enables the engineers, operators, and decision makers users. WRD-MEW needs to introduce capacities in to manage the reservoir operations in an effective hydrological modeling as a precondition of develop- manner and ensure minimum impact resulting from ing water management strategies; establishing flood extreme flows downstream of the reservoir and save and drought risk management; and extending water water for drier times of the year. Such forecasting will management systems and optimizing their operation. require advanced technology such as digital elevation It will be necessary to evaluate hydrological simulation modeling developed using Light Detection and Ranging models for usability in the Afghanistan context and (LiDAR) and the effective use of available tools such to select and acquire adequate models. The existing as GIS. The solutions used in developing DSS should statistical tools for forecasts which may be employed accommodate water quality monitoring especially in Afghanistan will continue to be in use in the near during low flows to ensure public health. In addition, future, but these tools have weaknesses. Deterministic the set of solutions would require reservoir operation snow models can be used as an alternative to statistical to minimize flood damages and also to keep the river models with the help of high-resolution satellite data levels within an acceptable level. (e.g., snow cover, snow depth and water equivalent in snow). By introducing new hydrological models and The generic steps to develop such DSS are: software packages for short- and long-term flow fore- casting (which have been tested in other mountainous • Selecting priority river basins based on recent countries) and by enhancing technical capacities for observations of flood damages; modeling, a higher level of quality of forecasts can be • Monitoring of water quality and river flow while ensured. Other simulation models for water resources strengthening the monitoring network and water systems should be tested for setting up water balances quality testing facilities; and planning for water resources allocations, river basin water management, and prognoses of future • Developing digital elevation models (DEM) for the conditions. An important task will be evaluating the priority basins using LiDAR/Drone/technology effects of climate change in rainfall and streamflow and GIS; by deterministic models driven with plausible climate • Identifying vulnerable areas and properties including change scenarios. Selection of a modeling system houses using GIS/GPS technology; should include the availability of training, documenta- • Preparing and issuing timely rainfall forecasts from tion, technical support, and calibration. the NMHS; and Deterministic real-time hydrological models for the • Establishing and operating in collaboration with flood-prone river basins can produce a flood hydrograph the DRM and NMHS/NHS a flood warning system that provides users with much more information than the to inform down to the household level. DRM and statistical relationships. In addition, with the increasing NMHS/NHS (through their public weather channels) accuracy and reliability of meteorological models and will ensure timely dissemination of the information quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF), a 24-hour, to the public. seven-days-a-week flood watch alerting advisory could be added. A Doppler radar would be essential Facilities required for such DSS includes modernizing to specify the location of storm cells, to estimate the the operation center/control room in the NMHS/NHS spatial differences in rainfall intensities, and to provide with necessary equipment, obtaining the facilities to input data for flash flood alert systems. Flood early measure water quality at the NHS, installing water warning, to be effective, should provide adequate 8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNIZATION OF AMD AND WRD-MEW 69 lead time for institutions and communities at risk to Awareness System (GloFAS) of ECMWF, the capabili- undertake preparatory and mitigating actions. Currently, ties of the national ensemble flood forecasting will be flood warning capacity in Afghanistan is limited and extended to create a comprehensive ensemble flood inadequate for preserving livelihoods, or for making forecasting for Afghanistan. early decisions for flood preparedness and mitigation. In summary, the modernization of hydrological fore- A DSS in Afghanistan will be based on a probabilistic casting should provide new hydrological tools and flood forecasting system that couples an atmospheric information as follows: model capable of providing probabilistic forecasts • Seasonal forecasts, based on remote sensing data (very short to long timescales, e.g., ECMWF) to provide and snow modeling, including technical facilities high resolution rainfall forecasts (AMD), hydrological/ such as servers, software licenses, training, quality hydraulic models (MEW), data on vulnerability of management, dissemination of products; people and assets (ANDMA or other government ministries), telemetry observation system networks • River and flash flood warning and alert systems, (MEW, AMD), and a joint mechanism for production including technical facilities such as new sensors and dissemination of flood forecast and bulletins (e.g., water level recording based on radar precipita- (MEW, AMD and ANDMA). Capacity building in all the tion stations with data automatic transfer), weather partner organizations to develop, install, and run this radar data, data transmission systems, visualization system is key in the success of the system. Capacity interfaces with servers and hydrological models, to access the full suite of ECMWF data is required. software licenses, training, quality management, Sufficient Internet bandwidth, a shared server to store and dissemination of results); and these data, and sufficient computing resources to run • Operational water balances for the main river the hydrological/hydraulic modeling system as an basins, including data from the main water users ensemble is necessary. With the inclusion of the Flash and water management facilities. Flood Guidance System (FFGS) and the Global Flood  71 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS T he steps outlined in this Road Map to modernize and floods) and economic difficulties. To demonstrate the AMD and WRD-MEW are based on extensive the benefits to users, however, AMD and WRD-MEW discussions with the AMD, WRD-MEW, and must first be able to provide fit-for-purpose services their key stakeholders. These discussions reveal to the satisfaction of those users, which they cannot gaps between the requirements of the user com- do unless there is a substantial upgrading of their munity and the capabilities of these organizations infrastructure and services. This is a cycle whereby to respond to those needs. These steps are meant the gap in available resources and ability to serve their to guide the transformation of the AMD and MEW mandates keeps widening for AMD and WRD-MEW. to a fit-for-purpose organization whose standards of provision of products and services and the delivery A major guidance of this Road Map and the scenarios of those services will be raised, to the extent possible it presents is for AMD and WRD-MEW to have a more within the context of Afghanistan, to respond to user systematic basis to set strategic and forward-looking requirements. Clearly, AMD and WRD-MEW strive to priorities that are based on available (and potential provide products of quality, diversity, and coverage future) funding to improve their service delivery. Future to users and the Afghan population. However, in challenges may include the impacts of climate change doing so, they face many challenges in: (i) securing with resulting increases in floods and droughts, as well adequate and sustained funding while delivering high as the emergence of new technologies and economic quality and useful products and services; (ii) having evolution in the country. sufficiently trained technical staff; (iii) having access to appropriate technical assistance and guidance; The consultations with stakeholders have clearly and (iv) ensuring that their capacity could keep indicated requirements for more accurate, timely, pace with and meet the ever-growing demand for location-specific, well-articulated, and useable informa- their services. tion. This has been the basis of the different scenarios proposed in this Road Map. Certain steps can be AMD and WRD-MEW are in urgent need of clearly taken quickly and with considerably limited invest- demonstrating to the government funding authorities ments and effort to enhance the utility of weather-, the importance of the underpinning observation and climate-, and hydrology-related information for users. data processing infrastructure, and access to modern Examples include further training of AMD and WRD- forecasting tools and technologies which are essential MEW technical staff to access, understand, and use for providing services and advisory guidance to the readily available products and guidance from various Afghan population. Furthermore, AMD and WRD-MEW centers for improved forecast and warning services; should in a more rigorous and better understood fashion and modifying the formats of products, using simpler argue the case for the social and economic benefits language and avoiding jargon or changing the time of of the services they provide. the product dissemination based on feedback from user surveys. Other changes may require a series of actions To compete for and optimally use scarce public over medium or long timescales and require more resources, AMD and WRD-MEW are increasingly substantial investments. One example is introducing required to justify their continuing operation and capacities for hydrological modeling. the investment of public funds to support their basic infrastructure and suite of services and to demonstrate As described in Section 7 of this Road Map, the mod- how their products and services are benefiting the ernization of AMD and WRD-MEW is being guided by country in the face of natural disasters (e.g., droughts three main components: (i) enhancement of service 72  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP delivery; (ii) institutional strengthening and capacity are interdependent and if conducted in phases, they building; and (iii) modernization of observation infra- build on each other to contribute to the overall goal structure, data management systems, and forecasting. of the modernization progressing from Scenario 3 to Scenario 1. That is, Scenario 2 assumes the accomplish- The development of a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) ment of objectives in Scenario 3 and builds on them. will be essential to guide and support the transforma- Similarly, Scenario 1 assumes the achievement of goals tion of the AMD and WRD-MEW. The CONOPS is based in Scenarios 2 and 3 and builds on those. On the other on the principle of a system of systems (Figure  19) hand, if resources are made available to undertake the and proposes various alternatives, depending on modernization as a whole independent package under the level of financial and human resources and other Scenario 1, then this will comprise the entire activities constraints, for the transformation of each individual as described under Scenarios 2 and 3. Similarly, a system. Based on their stated requirements, the users complete modernization package under Scenario 2 of AMD and WRD-MEW services should be provided will comprise also activities contained in Scenario 3. with the best possible products and services, and to achieve that objective, it is necessary to launch a full Based on the World Bank’s experiences of the NMHS modernization program. This will form Scenario 1 in the modernization in other countries, and considering Road Map and aims to bring AMD and WRD-MEW up the special circumstances of Afghanistan, a strategic to the level of well-functioning developing countries’ approach to the modernization will be the use of Inter- capabilities for providing data, forecasts, and warning national Advisors who will work alongside the Afghan services to meet the needs of a spectrum of users. employees of AMD and MEW to provide ongoing The alternatives however, should be considered for advice, guidance, and assistance in the implementation each system if there are not sufficient resources to of the different scenarios to ensure that the required provide this full modernization. It will be necessary to capacity and expertise is built in different areas of these prioritize the most important changes in the systems organizations. The three scenarios of modernization to go forward and to consider where the program of AMD are presented below. should be scaled back in favor of those priorities. The emerging solution may be to trim down from the full modernization to a relatively modest improvement in 9.1 Scenario 1: Advanced services in consultation with users and matched with a corresponding reduction in their level of expectation. Modernization This is Scenario 2 in the Road Map: an intermediate level of investment to achieve a modest improve- This scenario presents the investment needed to bring ment in capabilities to provide weather, climate, AMD and WRD-MEW up to the level of well-functioning and hydrological services to meet the needs of the developing countries’ capabilities for providing data, most important users such as disaster management, forecasts, and warning services to meet user needs agriculture, aviation, and water resources manage- (focused on improving hydromet and climate services). ment. Finally, if there are not enough resources to do This scenario covers the three components of moderniza- a moderate modernization, then it will be necessary tion. Most of the effort under this scenario is expended to choose an alternative which will give a minimum to fully utilize all the systems that are in place and hence basic improvement through technical assistance. This the increase in services delivery and quality management is Scenario 3 in the Road Map and represents a set of systems. It is expected that the implementation of this low-cost, high-priority activities options. It focuses on scenario will require at least seven years. improving basic public services based on strengthening the AMD and WRD-MEW capacity and introducing 9.1.1 ENHANCEMENT OF THE AMD basic affordable new technologies. In this way the CONOPS will guide the process through considering AND MEW SERVICE DELIVERY PROCESS a whole range of alternatives and finally choosing the A first step for enhancement of service delivery is to one which is affordable and yet can provide the best ensure that users of meteorological and hydrological possible services to users.  It should be noted that information and services are included in product these scenarios are not exclusive of each other, but 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 73 planning and design from the outset and that the services. It will include: development and implementa- derived information and services respond to user needs. tion of a national Strategy for Service Delivery (SSD) This process will be guided through developing and that draws on guidance from the WMO Strategy for Ser- implementing a national Strategy for Service Delivery vice Delivery and its Implementation Plan; development (SSD) based on the WMO Strategy for Service Delivery of new and improvement of an existing set of basic and and its Implementation Plan. The WMO Strategy explains specialized user-tailored products, including evaluation the importance of service delivery and defines the of forecast utility and user satisfaction; development various stages and elements for a continued process and operationalization of Common Alerting Protocol for developing and delivering services with the view (CAP) capability at AMD, WRD-MEW, and ANDMA to creating a service-oriented culture in NMHSs. The to standardize the production and dissemination of Implementation Plan guides the NMHSs through a warnings; improvement of dissemination mechanisms number of steps in assessing and improving their current to communities; pilot testing and operationalization service delivery in line with their strategic objectives. of impact-based forecast and warning services in An initial step in the development of a national SSD for selected vulnerable districts/cities; strengthening AMD and WRD-MEW would be to assess their current end-to-end EWS (including the last mile), including level of service delivery using the Service Delivery a regular post-event review process; development of Progress Model of the WMO Strategy document an Agriculture and Climate Advisory Service (ACAS) (Annex 2). The next step would be close consultation portal, including provision of hardware and software; with AMD’s and WRD-MEW’s key stakeholders (DRM, further development of National Framework for agriculture, water resource management, transport) to Climate Services; and development of a digital library gather more specific requirements, in addition to the of climate-relevant information. In addition, based on general information already available. This could be done an evaluation of AMD opportunities to initiate public- through the establishment of a hydrometeorological private engagement, strategies will be developed to user group to ensure interaction between providers introduce new sustainable business models such as and users of services, to provide direction for build- fee-based service provision. ing the AMD and WRD-MEW capacity, and to help resolve challenges. An action plan with well-defined The estimated budget under this scenario will cover the milestones would then be created for responding to the cost of the new equipment, tools, vehicles, instrumen- unfulfilled user requirements. The user group should tation, software, and facilities. As in the intermediate be supported through: modernization option, the O&M budget under this scenario should be used for a proper life-cycle manage- • Establishing a coordination platform and commu- ment of observation infrastructure and facilities. This nication channels between the service providers includes the supply of spare parts, consumables, and and users to support modernization, effectiveness, fuel; covering the increased communication, power, and sustainability of the services; and other operating costs; and quality control and • Supporting users to identify their respective data, quality assurance procedures. Considering that AMD product, and service needs; and WRD-MEW operations under this scenario will be based on the broad use of more sophisticated instru- • Proposing improvements of exiting or development ments (e.g., Doppler radar), modern technologies, and of new products and services to meet needs; research, the AMD and WRD-MEW workforce should • Developing the capacity of users of products and be further strengthened by hiring more qualified staff services to maximize the benefits of data, products, and continued technical training. and services; and • Supporting awareness and outreach programs 9.1.2 INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING targeted at decision makers and sector users to AND CAPACITY BUILDING highlight the benefits of the services. Under this scenario it is crucial to have the key national, Enhancement of the AMD and WRD-MEW service provincial, and local government agencies to work in delivery process will focus on the improvement of public close cooperation if forecasting and warning services weather, climate, hydrological, and agrometeorological are to be fully effective. The interdepartmental relations 74  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP also need to be strengthened through regular contacts One example of institutional strengthening through the and communication channels. Roles and responsibilities regulatory framework would be establishing a mandate of each agency must be sufficiently well defined to for providing hydrological planning tools. The opera- avoid ambiguities, especially during severe weather- tion of the hydrological network and the description related events. A QMS system will be established of the current hydrological conditions and short or across the entire institutional and operational systems longer term forecasts are the main MEW activities. of AMD and WRD-MEW to develop and implement To transform the hydrological data into information, management of the organization’s delivery of products new hydrological planning tools are needed. For this and services. There is a need to establish formal com- purpose, MEW responsibilities for countrywide assess- munication mechanisms involving all stakeholders. ments of hydrological conditions in the form of water Establishment of Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) balances, hydrological data for flood risk management, among service providers and key stakeholders will help drought forecasts and warnings, and other derived pave the way for such negotiations and agreements. information have to be specified as a priority. Close Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) will enable the cooperation will be needed between AMD and MEW AMD and WRD-MEW to codify how alerts, warnings, to achieve this goal. and other operational products are issued. They also enable stakeholders to define their responses to the 9.1.3 MODERNIZATION OF OBSERVATION various levels of alerts and warnings improving the INFRASTRUCTURE, DATA MANAGEMENT response to meteorological and hydrological hazards. SOPs should be constructed to align with WMO SYSTEMS, AND FORECASTING guidelines and global good practices. Modernization of the Observation Infrastructure, Data Management Systems and Forecasting is a substan- Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building will tial undertaking. For the observation infrastructure aim to improve the performance of AMD and MEW in it may include: expanding and upgrading surface line with international best practices through: estab- meteorological network as required (e.g., AWSs, lishment of a new concept of operations (CONOPS) climate reference network, lightning detection system, aligned with this scenario; improvement of a legal and and snow measurements) and supporting equipment; regulatory framework for AMD and MEW operations; meteorological equipment to improve air transporta- improvement of the AMD and WRD-MEW internal tion safety at international airports; installation of management system, including human resources one meteorological radar and infrastructure support; planning and management as well as strengthening reactivation of the existing but nonfunctioning upper and completion of the quality management system; air station rehabilitating and technical equipping of the evaluation of AMD and WRD-MEW opportunities to hydrological and sediment network; special equipment develop a new business strategy for more sustainable for hydrological measurements (e.g., Acoustic Dop- operations; development of technical capacity and pler Current Profilers (ADCP), boats, current meters, education through a training plan for AMD and WRD- laboratory equipment, and stream gauges equipped MEW to build/enhance the required skills to cope with with data transmission); establishment of an AMD and the innovation, modernization, and sustainability of the MEW calibration facility; modernization of agrometeo- enhanced systems (e.g., on-the-job training, training rological network; and vehicles and tools to support at other institutions, twinning with developed NMHSs, AMD and MEW field operations and maintenance. For a fellowships, higher degree courses); enhancing capacity modernized data processing system, the following may of national educational institutions to provide rigorous be included: communication and computer equipment hydromet education and training, stakeholders training; for acquisition, storage, archiving, processing, and public education and outreach; further development of visualization for weather, climate, and hydrological AMD and WRD-MEW websites, publication of bulletins data (servers and workstations); data management and annual reports, work with schools; and cooperation systems for weather, climate, and hydrological data with universities and research institutes. (servers, software, web access, and social media) to form common databases/platforms. Meteorological 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 75 and hydrological modernization including the required and dissemination of products; flash flood warning training and capacity building may include use by AMD and alert systems, including technical facilities for and WRD-MEW of internationally available products collecting data from new sensors; operational water where possible (to achieve economic efficiency) such balances for the main river basins; and refurbishment as satellite products, numerical weather prediction of AMD and MEW facilities and offices. It should be (NWP)/ensemble prediction systems (NWP/EPS) noted that this list is neither exhaustive nor mandatory data, and products and required software for data and is meant mostly to provide food for thought and handling (i.e., license); flood forecasts from the Global reflection on what may be needed in Afghanistan for Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) operated by the modernizing infrastructure and technologies along a ECMWF; uninterrupted broadband internet; equip- pathway with the ultimate goal of improving hydromet ment for weather forecasting, including forecaster service provision to the Afghan population. workstation software products and implementation of real-time forecast process monitoring, quality The capabilities of the system following interventions control of observations; introducing nowcasting in Scenario 1 are shown in Figure 41 and Figure 42, using radar data; seasonal forecasts based on remote respectively. These are indicated as percentages in sensing data and snow modeling, including servers, Table 11 and Table 12 relative to full capacity (100 per- licenses for software, training, quality management, cent) of an advanced NMHS. FIGURE 41 • Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hazard Public weather Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems G2G disaster Nowcasting system National data systems management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range governments system forecasting system G2G agriculture service system Upper air systems Nowcasting model Short-range system forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system energy management businesses services system Hydro modeling Medium-range systems forecasting system Data management and archiving systems G2G and G2B aviation Long-range services system ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Met/hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system. 76  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP TABLE 11 • Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System of Systems (%) Objective Actions, Monitoring and Impact Service and Forecasting Service Quality Monitoring, Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Capacity and Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Building Feedback Global data Global Severe hazard Public Institutional Data communication Met/hydro Service systems NWP forecasting weather management institutional for public 75% services 95% education and 90% 60% 99% training 75% 80% 90% Surface obs. Regional Nowcasting Disaster Operational Computing hardware Stakeholder Service systems NWP system management management and software institutions for national 90% services and provincial 90% 20% 99% 80% 90% governments 80% 75% Upper air Nowcasting Very short-range Agriculture Communications End-user training Service systems system model forecasting service and outreach for businesses system 90% 20% 80% 80% 90% 30% 50% Radar system Hydro Short-range Water and modeling forecasting power 15% management 70% 80% service 80% Data Medium-range Aviation management forecasting services and archiving 70% 75% 95% External data Long-range Climate forecasting services 90% 70% 60% 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 77 FIGURE 42 • Scenario 1 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hydro hazard Public hydrological Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems Nowcasting system/ G2G disaster National data systems flash flood guidance management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range flood system governments forecasting system G2G agriculture service system Hydro modeling Short-range flood systems forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system power management businesses services system Medium-range flood Data management forecasting system and archiving systems Long-range flood ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system. 78  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP TABLE 12 • Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System of Systems (%) Objective Actions, Monitoring and Impact Service and Forecasting Service Quality Monitoring, Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Capacity and Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Building Feedback Global data Severe hazard Public Institutional Data communication Met/hydro Service systems system forecasting hydrologic management institutional for public services 95% education and 70% 50% 70% 99% training 75% (avalanches, mudslides, 90% droughts) Surface obs. Disaster Operational Computing hardware Stakeholder Service systems management management and software institutions for national 90% services and provincial 70% 99% 80% 90% governments 75% Very short-range Agriculture Communications End-user training Service systems forecasting service and outreach for businesses 90% 70% 70% 90% 30% Hydro Short-range Water and modeling forecasting power management 80% 70% service 70% Data Medium-range management forecasting and archiving 70% 95% External data Long-range forecasting 90% 70% 9.2 Scenario 2: Intermediate been accomplished. If on the other hand this scenario represents a combination of technical assistance and a Modernization modest scale of modernization, then all activities under Scenario 3 have to be included under this scenario. This is the intermediate investment scenario between These include development/enhancement of WRD- Scenarios 1 and 3. This scenario aims to achieve a mod- MEW and AMD’s capacity in the use and interpretation est improvement in capabilities to provide weather, of available and accessible tools and technologies; climate, and hydrological services to meet the needs developing a national Strategy for Service Delivery of at least three most important users such as disaster (SSD); establishing a hydrometeorological user group; management, agriculture, and water resources man- developing a CONOPS for Scenario  2; enhancing agement. This scenario builds on the achievements service provision to key government stakeholders; of Scenario 3 and assumes that the activities needed training; accessing and full usage of NWP data and to achieve critical minimal capabilities to provide products from other centers to improve short-range weather, climate, and hydrological services have weather forecasting and introduction to impact- based forecasting; enhanced use of remote sensing 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 79 FIGURE 43 • Capabilities of AMD System of Systems Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hazard Public weather Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems G2G disaster Nowcasting system National data systems management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range system G2G agriculture governments forecasting system service system Upper air systems Nowcasting model Short-range system forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system energy management businesses services system Hydro modeling Medium-range systems forecasting system Data management and archiving systems G2G and G2B aviation services system Long-range ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms G2G and G2B climate systems services system Technology infusion systems Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Met/hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system. products for hydrological services; enhancing long- 4. Modernization of AMD and WRD-MEW data range forecasting and hydrological forecasting; and management, communication and ICT systems; procuring computing and communication equipment 5. Training on Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) as required. and probabilistic forecasting; In addition to the specific activities listed under 6. Enhanced training on impact-based forecasting; Scenario 3, under this scenario the following may be 7. Initiation of hydrological forecasting using flood undertaken: modeling; 1. Rehabilitation of high priority meteorological 8. Establishment of a national framework for climate observation stations and addition of stations in services; strategic areas within the available resources; 9. Training of stakeholders and end-users to build 2. Optimization of the hydrological network in line their understanding and capacity in using hydromet with major requirements of water management and information; installation of new automated water level recorders as required, within the available resources; 10. Expanding the QMS to cover most operational and institutional systems in AMD and WRD-MEW; and 3. Replacement of water level recording systems at selected gauges and implementation of data 11. Initiating/strengthening monitoring and feedback transmissions; systems. 80  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP TABLE 13 • Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each AMD System of Systems (%) Objective Actions, Monitoring and Impact Service and Forecasting Service Quality Monitoring, Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Capacity and Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Building Feedback Global data Global Severe hazard Public Institutional Data communication Met/hydro Service systems NWP forecasting weather management institutional for public 60% services 50% education and 70% 60% 70% training 20% 60% 60% Disaster Operational Computing hardware Stakeholder Service systems management management and software institutions for national services and provincial 50% 50% 60% governments 50% 20% Surface obs. Regional Very short-range Agriculture Communications End-user training NWP forecasting service and outreach 50% 40% 7% 60% 50% 60% Data Hydro Short-range Water and management modeling forecasting power and archiving management 10% 60% service 75% 50% External data Medium-range forecasting 70% 30% Long-range forecasting 30% The budget for this scenario should include the esti- communication specialists, in order to cope with the mated cost of the new equipment, tools, instrumenta- introduction of new technologies in the department. tion, and software. The O&M budget for this scenario Additional trained hydrologists should be recruited (approximately 10 percent of the total budget) should through WRD-MEW as needed. While it is difficult be used for, among others, spare parts, consumables, to project the exact number and composition of the fuel, increased communication, power, and other staff required in the future, it is evident that this will be operating costs. AMD has to recruit and train addi- another significant budget item. The implementation tional staff and to retrain the existing staff including of this scenario should be completed within at least forecasters, modelers, ICT specialists, engineers and four years. 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 81 FIGURE 44 • Scenario 2 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hydro hazard Public hydrological Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems Nowcasting system/ G2G disaster National data systems flash flood guidance management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range flood system governments forecasting system G2G agriculture service system Hydro modeling Short-range flood systems forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system power management businesses services system Medium-range flood Data management forecasting system and archiving systems Long-range flood ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Interna research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system. The expected capabilities of MEW through the activi- The expected capabilities of MEW through the activi- ties carried out under Scenario 1 are reflected in the ties carried out under Scenario 2 are reflected in the resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 43 resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 44 and Table 13. and Table 14. 82  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP TABLE 14 • Scenario 2 Approximate Capabilities for Each WRD-MEW System of Systems (%) Objective Actions, Monitoring and Impact Service and Forecasting Service Quality Monitoring, Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Capacity and Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Building Feedback Global data Severe hazard Public Institutional Data communication Met/hydro Service systems forecasting hydrologic management institutional for public 60% services 60% education and 30% 40% training 30% (avalanches, 70% mudslides, 70% droughts) Surface obs. Disaster Operational Computing hardware Stakeholder Service systems management management and software institutions for national 70% services 50% and provincial 40% 60% governments 70% 30% Very short-range Agriculture Communications End-user training forecasting service and outreach 60% 30% 70% 50% Hydro Short-range Water and modeling forecasting power management 40% 30% service 70% Data Medium-range management forecasting and archiving 30% 60% External data Long-range forecasting 60% 30% 9.3 Scenario 3: Technical national Strategy for Service Delivery (SSD); establish- ing a hydrometeorological user group; developing a Assistance for High Priority CONOPS; establishing/strengthening a collaborative and Immediate Needs approach for service provision to key government stakeholders; training; accessing and full usage of NWP data and products from other centers; enhanced use Low-cost, high-priority activities are needed to achieve of remote sensing products for hydrological services; critical minimal capabilities to provide weather, climate, initiating basic long-range forecasting and hydro- and hydrological services (focused on improving basic logical forecasting; procuring basic computing and public services based on strengthening WRD-MEW communication equipment as required; and revising and AMD’s capacity in the use and interpretation of seasonal river forecast methods. The implementation available and accessible tools and technologies and of this scenario should be completed within at least introducing basic affordable new technologies) as two years. indicated below. Activities focus on: developing a 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 83 Strengthening service delivery through: considering local conditions, costs of ownerships, and O&M costs). 1. Developing a national Strategy for Service Delivery (SSD) based on the WMO Strategy for Service Improvement of long-range weather forecasting Delivery and its Implementation Plan; through: 2. Establishing a hydrometeorological user group 1. Several rounds of training to build up knowledge for development and enhancement of different and understanding of concepts related to long- services and to improve coordination among range forecasting; service providers and improve liaison and response to users; 2. Access to and use of products from Global Produc- ing Centers for long-range forecasts; 3. Developing a CONOPS to guide design of activities for different systems under this scenario; 3. Tailoring long-range forecasts for specific applica- tions and users; and 4. Initiating/strengthening a QMS gradually across the AMD and WRD-MEW institutional and operational 4. Introduction to concepts of climate modeling and systems; downscaling. 5. Initiating in collaboration with key government Improvements in other areas of AMD activities: stakeholders especially ANDMA and MAIL the provision of information and services for DRM 1. Training on the operation and maintenance of the and agriculture; and new short-, medium-, and long-range forecast systems including the use of any new software, 6. Enhancing the provision of PWS and hydrological models, and techniques taught during the train- services through better dissemination channels ing; and and improved communication techniques. 2. Procurement of required hard and software for Improvement of short- and medium-range weather data management and the associated training. forecasting through: Improvements of the hydrological services of MEW: 1. Several rounds of training to build on current capa- bilities of forecasters to enhance the understanding 1. Improvement of hydrological data analyses by and as full a use of NWP data and products for applied statistics: for example, training on the short- to medium-range forecasts from leading application of the widely used R-packages (share- global centers (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, UK) as possible; ware) for time series analyses and statistical regionalization to provide hydrological information 2. Verification of forecasts; at ungauged sites (if needed in view of existing 3. Initial and follow-up training to introduce the statistical software), to be followed with more concept and basic application of impact-based training on the applications of statistical tools forecasting through interpreting forecasts and for trend analyses in data series and statistics of adding other information to demonstrate the extremes; impact of weather and associated hazards; 2. Basics of hydrological data management: Introduc- 4. Purchase of license for access to graphical data tion to hydrological data management systems from a global center (e.g., ECMWF); and how data quality and long-term access to observations can be assured. To be followed up 5. Initial training to introduce Ensemble Prediction through setting up the data management system System (EPS) and the concept of probabilistic MHC of WMO and its operational application. In forecasting and its benefits; and view of the current data management system 6. Developing proposals for optimization of the AQUARIUS, this point should be considered only meteorological/climate networks, design, and if a different system of data management may configuration of automated meteorological be required; monitoring systems (e.g., choice of technologies 84  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 45 • Scenario 1 Capabilities of AMD System of Systems Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hazard Public weather Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems G2G disaster Nowcasting system National data systems management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range System governments forecasting system G2G agriculture service system Upper air systems Nowcasting model Short-range system forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system energy management businesses services system Hydro modeling Medium-range systems forecasting system Data management and archiving systems G2G and G2B aviation Long-range services system ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Met/hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system. 3. Strengthening the application of GIS, either by The expected capabilities of AMD through the activi- introducing QGIS software (freeware), if no GIS ties carried out under Scenario 1 are reflected in the system exists, or by using an already existing resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 45 system such as ArcGIS; and Table 15. 4. Regionalization to provide hydrological information at ungauged sites, training on the applications of The expected capabilities of MEW through the activi- statistical tools for trend analyses in data series, ties carried out under Scenario 3 are reflected in the and statistics of extremes; and resulting “System of Systems” as shown in Figure 46 and Table 16. 5. Flood forecasting and flood risk management: improvement of hydrological flood forecasts (purchase of one server and two workstations is essential). 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 85 TABLE 15 • Scenario 1 Approximate Capabilities for AMD System of Systems (%) Objective Actions, Monitoring and Impact Service and Forecasting Service Quality Monitoring, Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Capacity and Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Building Feedback Global data Global Severe hazard Public Institutional Data communication Met/hydro Service systems NWP forecasting weather management institutional for national 45% services 10% education and and provincial 30% 40% 70% training governments 45% 40% 20% Disaster Operational Computing hardware Stakeholder management management and software institutions services 20% 10% 10% 25% Surface obs. Regional Very short-range Agriculture Communications End-user training NWP forecasting service and outreach 30% 10% 55% 50% 30% 20% Data Short-range Water and management forecasting power and archiving management 50% service 10% 30% External data Medium-range forecasting 50% 20% Long-range forecasting 20% 86  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP FIGURE 46 • Scenario 3 Capabilities of MEW System of Systems Objective and impact Actions, service monitoring, and Monitoring and observing systems Modeling systems forecasting and warning systems Service delivery systems feedback systems Severe hydro hazard Public hydrological Global NWP systems forecasting systems services system Service systems for Global data system public Regional NWP systems Nowcasting system/ G2G disaster National data systems flash flood guidance management service system Service systems for Surface obs systems Limited area model national and provincial Very short-range flood system governments forecasting system G2G agriculture service system Hydro modeling Short-range flood systems forecasting system G2G water and Service systems for Radar system power management businesses services system Medium-range flood Data management forecasting system and archiving systems Long-range flood ITC systems forecasting system External data systems Data comms systems G2G and G2B climate Technology infusion systems services system Computing hardware and software systems External research and Quality management systems development systems Communication Institutional management systems Internal research and systems development systems Public-private cooperative services Operational management Cloud computing Transition research to systems systems systems operations systems to key businesses Capacity building Hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training and education and training training outreach Source: David Rogers (2018). Note: White: lack of capability in a particular system, Green: existing capability in a particular system, Gray Line: where no capability and no activity exist in the system. 9. ROAD MAP SCENARIOS 87 TABLE 16 • Scenario 3 Approximate Capabilities for MEW System of Systems (%) Objective Actions, Monitoring and Impact Service and Forecasting Service Quality Monitoring, Observing Modeling and Warning Delivery Management Capacity and Systems Systems Systems Systems Systems ICT Systems Building Feedback Global data Severe hazard Public Institutional Data communication Met/hydro Service systems forecasting hydrological management institutional for public 50% services 50% education and 10% 30% training 10% 20% 70% Disaster Operational Computing hardware Stakeholder Service systems management management and software institutions for national services 30% and provincial 20% 30% 40% government 10% Surface obs. Very short- Agriculture Communications End-user training range flood service and outreach 70% forecasting 40% 20% 20% 10% Data Water and management power and archiving management service 60% 20% External data 40%  89 10. SOCIOECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS I n order for AMD and WRD-MEW to improve the It should be noted that cost–benefit analysis for disaster quality, diversity, and coverage of their services, they and climate risk management in a developing country must secure adequate and sustained funding. It is now context is generally challenged by lack of data and a common practice for hydromet service providers to information. Further, complexities and uncertainties undertake a cost–benefit analysis to secure and optimize are inherent in quantifying disaster risk management the use of investment resources. In all of the cases where and are further compounded by climate change. such analyses have taken place, it has been demonstrated Cost–benefit analysis is also challenged in handling that the benefits of hydromet services are significantly intangibles and discounting of future impacts, which larger than the capital and operational costs needed is particularly important for extreme events.53 to modernize, produce, and deliver them. As public services, AMD, and WRD-MEW are expected to deliver An assessment of overall economic benefits as a result socioeconomic benefits to the welfare of Afghanistan of a modernization project had been carried out for society. By comparing the costs and benefits of project Afghanistan using well-known economic methodol- options over time, an understanding of the relative value ogy. The results indicated that strengthening of the of the planned investments can be generated. hydromet and EW services will yield a benefit–cost ratio ranging from 1.45 to 12.86. In view of the sub- Hydrometeorological services do not generate economic stantial recurring losses due to hazards such as floods, and social value unless users benefit from decisions droughts, landslides, and mudflows, it is clear that informed by the information provided, even if the ser- any enhancement in the capacity and capability of vices are of the highest quality. Decision making at all AMD and WRD-MEW to produce better forecasts and levels needs robust and understandable information. The warnings and disseminate them more effectively, will more the information produced by AMD and WRD-MEW be a sound policy and will lead to improvement in is available and accessible, the more socioeconomic the generation of services to mitigate the impact of value it can deliver. Further, the more skilled decision these hazards. Such services are currently lacking and makers are in utilizing those services and information, thus will lead to benefits both from the perspective the more value they can deliver. To optimize investment of reduction of risk to life and property, as well as in benefits, the AMD and WRD-MEW modernization must generating economic benefits. Furthermore, projected therefore focus on service delivery and ensuring that climate change, demographic and development impacts users can productively apply those services. indicate increased negative impacts of weather and climate in the future. Investments like this project Recent assessments have applied different method- are needed to manage these risks. Development of ologies as described in the authoritative publication a more specific cost–benefit analysis may therefore Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment be deemed necessary in the future for the detailed of Meteorological and Hydrological Services.52 This design and implementation of projects based on the includes further-refined, sector-specific and bench- different scenarios offered in the Road Map. marking approaches. 52 WMO, GFDRR/World Bank, and USAID (2015). 53 IPCC (2012).  91 11. CONCLUSIONS AND A WAY FORWARD T he strategic steps needed to modernize hydrome- developing country’s NMHS. This implies enhancing its teorological products and services in Afghanistan meteorological observing system to adequate spatial are primarily driven by the needs of the user coverage and technical diversity; building a robust community. Extensive discussions with AMD and data management system; a forecasting system with WRD-MEW management and technical staff and key increased accuracy, lead time, and timescales from stakeholders dealing with the most pressing issues very short-, to short- to long-range, and seasonal in the country, such as food and water security, and forecasts; impact-based forecasts; an ICT system emergency management and response, have revealed capable of archiving, storing, and transmitting data; that the provision of meteorological and hydrological and an effective service delivery system. Similarly, the information at present does not fully meet those needs. capacity of WRD-MEW needs to be strengthened for At present, the activities of AMD and WRD-MEW are similar production of hydrological services and flood mainly focused on observation and data collection with forecasting. The user requirements should in the case limited forecasting. The existing situation in Afghanistan of both organizations be the driving factor for the shows that due to lack of resources and conflicts since modernization of their system of systems. the 1990s, AMD has fallen behind even in this task, as well as in the production of forecasts and delivery of As public services, AMD and MEW are expected to services and making the technological and scientific deliver socioeconomic benefits for the welfare of progress needed to use best practices and standards in Afghan society. delivering services. Addressing these issues will require a joint approach involving all stakeholders and targeted Three scenarios to modernize the AMD and WRD-MEW to ensure that all elements of the meteorological and have been presented: (i) an advanced modernization hydrological data, and information and services chain option of investment to bring AMD and WRD-MEW up are addressed. to the level of well-functioning developing countries’ capabilities for providing data, forecasts, and warning The AMD’s main products include basic weather services; (ii) the provision of technical assistance for a forecasts for the public and other users. No EWS exists set of low-cost, high-priority activities options focused in the country for issuing warnings of severe weather on improvement of basic public services based on events. No agrometeorological forecasts nor flood strengthening AMD and WRD-MEW’s capacity and forecasts are produced, and assessment of the water introducing basic affordable new technologies; and resources of the country are lacking. The AMD’s use (iii) a second scenario which falls in between the two, of numerical weather prediction (NWP) is limited to with investment to achieve a modest improvement producing basic public forecasts. It has no technical in capabilities to provide hydrological, weather, and means to produce nowcasts needed for warnings.It climate services to meet the needs of the three most does not run any climate models and does not produce important users. Naturally, the level of complexity seasonal outlooks and climate projection. In addition, and required resources increases with each scenario. WRD-MEW does not run any hydrological or hydraulic models necessary for flood forecasting in the country. Scenario 1: Advanced modernization includes invest- ment needed to bring the AMD and WRD-MEW to Many requests by stakeholders clearly reflect the need the level of well-functioning developing countries’ for modernization of the entire infrastructure of AMD capabilities for providing data, forecasts, and warn- and MEW, to produce fit-for-purpose services. To ing services to meet user needs (i.e., focused on achieve this, AMD needs to reach the level of a modern improving hydrometeorological and climate services). 92  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP This scenario, which is a much more comprehensive Scenario 3: Low-cost, high-priority activities are modernization option, will raise the level of capability needed to achieve, over a period of at least two years, of AMD and MEW at the successful conclusion of at critical minimal capabilities to provide weather, climate, least a seven-year investment plan to that of a well- and hydrological services (focused on improvement functioning developing country. This option will be of basic public services based on strengthening AMD guided by three main modernization components: and MEW capacity and introducing basic affordable (i) enhancement of service delivery; (ii) institutional new technologies underpinned by priority capacity strengthening and capacity building; and (iii) modern- building and institutional strengthening activities). ization of observation infrastructure, data management Most activities in this scenario are focused on training; systems, and forecasting access and use of NWP data and products; procure- ment of some basic computing and communication Scenario 2: Intermediate modernization includes equipment; revision of seasonal river forecast methods; investment needed to achieve a modest improvement and establishing a user group. in capabilities to provide hydrological, weather, and climate services over a period of at least four years Developing a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) is to meet the needs of the most important users (i.e., essential for the detailed planning and implementation focused on strengthening hydromet observation, of each scenario. data analysis, and forecasting and on developing and providing priority services).  93 Annex 1. Required Training Areas T he following list is indicative of areas for which training is generally required by NMHSs. The exact areas of training for AMD and WRD-MEW will be defined based on their requirements following a thorough assessment of the current capabilities and gaps in the knowledge of the relevant staff. Other areas may be added to this list as needed. • Project management; • Management training; • Technical skills to support meteorological and hydrological observing networks; • Instruments and sensors maintenance; • Enhanced skills in weather forecasting using numerical models on all timescales from nowcasting to long-range forecasting; • Enhanced skills in weather forecasting based on remote sensing; • Enhanced skills in flood forecasting using numerical models; • Enhanced skills in deterministic seasonal forecasting using snow models; • Understanding of the end-to-end early warning production and delivery; • Impact-based forecasting and warning services including for hazards such as floods, landslides, avalanches, droughts; • Mesoscale meteorology; • Verification and statistics methods for model evaluation; • Data base management; • IT management skills; • Skills in the delivery of public weather and hydrological services, including user/ stakeholder consultation, communication, negotiation, and feedback gathering; • Enhanced skill in climate prediction using numerical methods; and • Public education and outreach. 94  Annex 2. Service Delivery Progress Model he Service Delivery Progress Model is adapted from WMO No. 1129—The WMO Strategy for Service Delivery and its Implementation Plan. The model can be used as a tool for assessing the level of development of NMHSs and creating an action plan to improve service delivery. Full T details can be found in http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents/WMO-SSD-1129_en.pdf. Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced Users are able to contact the An ongoing dialogue is NMHS and their feedback is NMHS seeks input on an maintained with users recorded. ad hoc basis from users to Users are known, but no regarding their needs and the facilitate the development of process for user engagement services they receive. Strategy element 1 The users and their There are some formal services. Evaluate user needs exists. requirements for products or processes for integrating the and decisions Requirements are defined in services is not known. feedback received into the Requirements are defined User requirements for service documents agreed upon with development of services. in documents agreed upon delivery are not well defined. the customer and routinely with the customer but are not updated using feedback from User requirements are defined routinely updated. users. with limited documentation. Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced Services are developed and User feedback is used to Users are consulted to Services do not adapt to changed as technology inform management of facilitate development of changing user needs and new allows, but engagement with changes and developments to products and services. Strategy element 2 technology. users is ad hoc. services. Link service development No concept of service exists, and delivery to user needs products are simply issued. The service defined in the Products are documented Products and services Products and services are SLA is agreed upon with with limited descriptive are documented, and the consistently documented. the customer based on user information. information is used to inform Service Level Agreements consultation. management of changes. (SLAs) are defined. Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced Some measures of User requirements are used development are in place. as data for performance measures. Measures of performance are No measures are in place Measures of verification and Strategy element 3 The verification of accuracy based on user needs, which for assessing performance, service delivery are in place Evaluate and monitor service and/or service delivery takes Findings are used to identify are regularly reported and performance and outcomes either in terms of accuracy or but are not informed by user place, but no systematic areas for improvement. consistently used to inform service delivery. requirements. process exists to use this decisions on improvements. information to improve the Subsequent actions are taken service. in an ad hoc manner. Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced An action plan has been The status of service delivery The concept of service created to improve the The action plan is being is reviewed on a regular basis. Strategy element 4 No concept exists of service delivery has been introduced current level of service implemented to improve Sustain improved service ANNEX 2. SERVICE DELIVERY PROGRESS MODEL delivery delivery principles. and an assessment of current delivery and resources service delivery, the outcomes The action plan evolves in status has been undertaken. have been identified to are being monitored. response to the outcome of implement it. the reviews. Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced All members of staff are fully Most staff of the NMHS are aware. There is a culture of providing No formal training in service aware of the importance of best possible service delivery. Strategy element 5 No concept or communication delivery is provided, though service delivery. Formal training is provided. Develop skills needed of service delivery principles to sustain service delivery service delivery principles are There is an ad hoc process Innovative ideas are routinely exist. informally communicated. Some formal training is for staff to offer ideas for integrated into the continual provided. improvements to service service improvement process. delivery. Strategy element 6 NMHSs are encouraged to share best practices in service delivery through formal training, twinning, mentoring, and Share best practices and knowledge other methods. 95 96  Annex 3. Observation and Telecommunication Progress Model Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced NMHS conducts research, introducing new observational Automation of observing Observations extend to technologies and techniques network with quality control smaller scales and include as needed. The observing is routine. NHMS accesses NMHS has the capacity ground-based remote sensing network is comprehensive NMHS has very few manual satellite data with, e.g., to support a synoptic techniques, such as radar. The and sufficient to meet main Observations and synoptic stations and the capacity to derive meteorological network and NMHS may be able to take user needs; incorporates Telecommunications hydrological stations. It does precipitation estimates. hydrological network; shares and integrate observations external observations from not share these data on the The observing network is these data on the GTS; has from other parties. other suppliers, for example, Global Telecommunication sustainable with sufficient sufficient staff to maintain its agrometeorological network System (GTS). budget for operations and observing networks. It may access observations operated by a Ministry of maintenance. The vertical by outsourcing its observing Agriculture or hydrological structure of the atmosphere requirements. network operated by a may be routinely measured. Ministry of Energy or Water Resources.  Annex 4. Forecasting Progress Model Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced LAM systems are available locally or through regional The NMHs can provide 0 to NMHS can provide at least centers. Using local data 5 days forecasts using global three-days deterministic assimilation, high-resolution and regional deterministic forecasts based on access short-time scale forecasts NWP and EPS data and to global and regional NWP are produced with emphasis NMHS has an extensive products from GPCs; issues data and products available on 0–6 hours for extreme research program and nowcasts and very short- on the GTS and/or graphical events. The forecasting introduces new forecasting NMHS provides up to two- range forecasts up to 12 hours products available from system extends from 0 to technologies and techniques; days deterministic forecast based on extrapolating WMO RSMCs; monitors at least 7 days based on has the capacity to support based on graphical forecast NWP and blending remote- the current weather and a combination of global, requirements of other NMHSs, products retrieved from sensing observations.; is Forecasting Systems hydrological system; has regional, and national is able to run global, regional, different web sources. There able to monitor major rivers basic data processing and deterministic NWP and and national NWP and EPS is no verification of forecasts. and generate short-term archiving systems; carries EPS data and products. systems. Forecasts of weather The NMHS does not operate flow and flood forecasts; has out subjective forecast The NMHS has the capacity and hydrological impacts on forecasting on a 24-hour, protocols for emergencies, verification. There is no to manipulate digital data specific sectors are routine seven-days-a-week basis; and back-up of data and products, research and development, and to tailor forecasts to and generally developed with warnings are not issued. and offsite storage facilities; and the quality management specific users and operates a users of these forecasts. The carries out verification and system is rudimentary. The multi-hazard warning system; NMHS has a well-developed post-processing; has some NMHS may not operate generates seasonal stream education and training unit. R&D and a QMS. The NMHS forecasting on a 24-hour, flow outlooks and specialized operates forecasting on a seven-days-a-week basis. hydrology products; has full 24-hour, seven-days-a-week Warnings are limited. R&D capability. There are basis. well-established relationships with partner agencies. 97 98  Annex 5. Climate Services Progress Model Undeveloped Development Initiated Development in Progress Developed Advanced NMHS generates sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast products, NMHS has the capacity to develops specialized climate NMHS designs, operates, and develop and/or provide products; downscales long- maintains national climate monthly and longer climate term climate projections as NMHS has research capacities observing systems; manages predictions, including well as interprets annual to and runs global and regional data including QA/QC; seasonal climate outlooks, decadal climate predictions; NMHS may operate a limited climate models (sub-seasonal develops and maintains data both statistical and model- covers all the elements of national climate observing to decadal and longer); archives; monitors climate; based; able to conduct or Climate Risk management, system; collects data in paper works with sector-based oversees climate standards; participate in regional and from risk identification, risk form; retrieves climate data research teams and develops performs climate diagnostics, national climate outlook assessment, planning and from different sources to application models, software, climate analysis, climate forums; interacts with users prevention, services for generate national climate and products suites for Climate Services assessment; disseminates in various sectors; adds value response and recovery from products; participates in customized climate products. climate products; participates from national perspectives on hazards, information relevant regional climate outlooks; Staff have multi-disciplinary in regional climate outlooks; the products received from to climate variability and and has very limited or modeling and statistical and interacts with users; RCCs and in some cases GPCs change, and information and no interaction with users. expertise and can downscale/ performs the functions of for long-range forecasts; advice related to adaptation; Typically, NMHSs in this calibrate global scale national climate centers conducts climate watch builds societal awareness to category do not have staff information to regional and providing basic climate programs and disseminates climate change issues and dedicated to carry out climate national levels. The NMHS is services. Staff are proficient early warnings. Staff are provides information relevant services. able to receive and respond in climate statistics, proficient in developing to policy development and to user requirements for new homogeneity testing and interpreting climate a national action plan. Staff products. techniques, and quality prediction products and in have knowledge in climate assurance techniques. assisting users in the uptake modeling and methods for of these products. downscaling/calibration, risk and risk management and financial tools for risk transfer.  99 Annex 6. Existing National Strategies and Plans T he major national strategies relevant to hydromet are briefly described below. The AMD Strategic Plan (2017) is a five-year plan to provide Afghanistan’s public weather service needs by establishing a competent meteorological service aligned with the WMO standards. The MAIL Food Security and Nutrition (FSN) Strategy (2015) is a five-year (2015–2019) strategy developed by MAIL to achieve food security and nutrition at national and house- hold levels through the establishment of an effective system of emergency preparedness and DRM, which includes EWS (expanding and building on existing initiatives such as the FEWS NET). The MRRD Disaster Management Strategy (2014) is for a “Disaster-Resilient Rural Afghanistan by 2020” through early recovery and mitigation. The strategy clearly identifies the lack of a centralized data management system, coordination among agencies, and the absence of an effective EWS as the main challenges affecting the establishment of an effective DRM system in Afghanistan.  The Water Sector Strategic Policy Framework (2004) is an overall framework for establish- ing improved water resource management systems, livelihoods, agricultural production, hydropower generation, and environment management. The Afghan National Development Strategy (ANDS) (2008) guides all development activities in Afghanistan and provides a comprehensive strategy for security, governance, economic growth, and poverty reduction. The disaster preparedness section of the strategy stipulates (i) decrease risks from natural disasters and (ii) improve disaster preparedness and response. The Afghanistan Strategic National Plan (SNAP) for Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) provides a roadmap to “A Safer and More Resilient Afghanistan” by addressing the risks of future disasters and climate change impacts. It encourages improved coordination and knowledge sharing among all stakeholders at all levels. 100  STRENGTHENING HYDROMET AND EARLY WARNING SERVICES IN AFGHANISTAN: A ROAD MAP The Water Resource Management Sector Strategy (2007) is to manage Afghanistan’s water resources to reduce poverty, increase sustainable economic and social development, improve the quality of life for all Afghans, and ensure an adequate supply of water for future generations. Protection from the impacts of droughts and floods through developing exper- tise in weather forecasting, warning, and preparedness is one of the goals of the Strategy. National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) (2010) operates in accordance with the Law on Disaster Response, Management and Preparedness and aims to streamline disaster management systems in Afghanistan. The main objective of the plan is to develop greater clarity in roles and coordination among the various national agencies included in disaster response. 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