The Palestinian Authoritys (PA) fiscal situation remains difficult and the latest conflict in Gaza has placed further pressure on an already tight budget.
... Voir la suite This short working paper describes the current fiscal situations facing the PA. Included in this report are a number of projections about certain legislative bills and predictions for quarters 2 and 3. The PA has continued to push forward its reform agenda but progress in certain areas such as revenues and arrears accounting has slowed.
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The objective of the Agricultural Development Support Project for Myanmar is to increase crop yields and cropping intensity in the target irrigated areas.
... Voir la suite This will be achieved through improved provision of irrigation and farm advisory and technical services. Negative impacts include: air pollution, dust, water pollution, soil erosion, noise pollution, waste management, and loss of ecology. Mitigation measures include: good engineering practice and maintenance of vehicles would be required according Irrigation manual, occupational health safety instruction and World Banks guideline; dust from handling or transportation of aggregates, cement, etc., should be minimized by sprinkling or other appropriate method; i.e. limit of excessive truckload, use of cover sheet; restoration of borrow [its and disposal; raise people awareness through meeting and communication materials before boundary delineation between adjacent farmland and drainage system to avoid confusion and dispute; consult with farmers for identifying working zone of civil work (including damping site) and developing operational time schedules adjusting to farming seasons. Also, agree upon grievance procedures, compensation and communication channel as necessary; assess local access route and consult with villagers for arrangement of temporary path if required; use warning signboard, prior notice, and announcement whenever heavy traffic is to be occurred; and develop or implement health and safety guidelines.
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In the third quarter of 2014 (Q3), the Philippine economy expanded by 5.3 percent its slowest pace in 11 quarters. Growth slowed down due to the contraction of government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.
... Voir la suite The services sector the main engine of growth also slowed to its lowest level in 12 quarters. For Q3 2014 and for the first 3 quarters of 2014, Philippine growth is about average when compared to the major economies in the East Asia region. Capital outflows resulted in a full-year balance of payments deficit of about USD 3.4 billion, the first in a decade. However, the current account remains in strong surplus, supported by robust remittances, while international reserves continue to be at comfortable levels at more than 10 months of imports. Inflation started to moderate, with positive impact on both households and businesses while government spending contracted significantly in Q3 and constituted a further drag on growth. Sustaining government spending in the near-term will require significant improvements in budget planning and execution as the current 28-year old system, already at capacity, is hard pressed to support higher spending. Going forward, the Philippines needs to accelerate reforms that can translate higher growth into more inclusive growth the type that creates more and better jobs so that poverty can be reduced massively and prosperity shared by more people. Overall, the country has an investment gap (both physical and human capital) of around 6.8 percent of GDP as of 2014. The document outlines this investment gap.
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This report contains the World Bank Group Boards calendar for the period of January 2015 to March 2015, specifying the Boards engagements, such as meetings, briefings, and other Bank happenings.
... Voir la suite It is updated as of January 15, 2015.
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Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies.
... Voir la suite Weak global trade growth and lower commodity prices are projected to persist while financial conditions will likely tighten gradually. Risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside. The stability of remittances may help some of the lowest-income countries weather shocks. In some developing economies, monetary policy challenges may be attenuated if falling commodity prices reduce inflationary pressures. Fiscal stimulus could effectively support growth if there is sufficient fiscal space. Some developing countries, however, have to rebuild fiscal space to preserve their ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, which has served them well over the decade. Both high-income and developing countries need to undertake structural reforms that promote growth and job creation and help achieve poverty reduction goals. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a twice yearly basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through extensive research in the January edition and shorter pieces in the June edition.
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This report contains the World Bank Group Boards' calendar for the period of January 2015 to March 2015, specifying the Boards' engagements, such as meetings and briefings.
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Ratings for the Santiago Composting Project for Chile were as follows: outcomes were satisfactory, risk to development outcome was not applicable, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was unsatisfactory.
... Voir la suite The objective of the project was to build and operate a composting facility to treat urban biodegradable waste and non-toxic wastewater sludge. This will be done through the operation of a composting facility in Santiago, Chile to treat urban biodegradable waste and non-toxic wastewater sludge. The operation was designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that usually occur as waste degrades in landfills through the diversion of waste to the composting facility and was also anticipated to contribute to sustainable waste management in Santiago. The reduction in greenhouse emissions would be verified and sold as Verified Emissions Reductions to the World Bank, acting as a trustee for the Spanish Carbon Fund. The private company sponsoring the compost project, Agroindustrial Pullihue Ltda., will retain the resulting revenues. The risk assessment completed during the appraisal stage identified the risks which in the end contributed to its termination. Because of the nature of the CDM mechanism and its performance-based approach, the World Bank assumes a lower burden of these risks relative to investment lending or grant financing mechanisms. This may have led to the carbon finance operation moving ahead even with multiple high risks remaining at appraisal. The risks were too high in terms of significance and number to justify the effort and transaction costs made to sign the emissions reduction purchase agreement and supervise the initial stages of implementation. The risks needed to be mitigated further at appraisal or the carbon finance operation dropped completely. It acts as a reminder that even in performance-based projects, risk assessments should be considered carefully at the stage of project appraisal.
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This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products).
... Voir la suite This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia's exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia's full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia's trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia's nontraditional exports.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7151 JAN 01, 2015
This paper assesses the link between democracy and inequality. Inequality is measured at the cohort level with pseudo-panel data built from nine Latin American countries' household surveys (1995-2009, biannual).
... Voir la suite Democracy is measured as a stock during long periods of time both before and after each cohort's year of birth. The paper presents evidence that long-run historical patterns in the degree of democracy relate to income inequality. However, this relationship is non-monotonic: inequality ?rst increases with the stock of democracy before falling. The paper also presents evidence that education may be a mechanism explaining this result.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7153 JAN 01, 2015
This paper builds a tractable partial equilibrium model to help explain the role of trade preferences given to developing countries, as well as the efficacy of various subsidy policies.
... Voir la suite The model allows for firm level heterogeneity in demand and productivity and lets the mass of firms that enter be endogenous. Trade preferences given by one country have positive spillovers on exports to others in this model. Preferences given by the European Union to Bangladesh in an industry raise profits, resulting in entry, and some of these firms also export to the United States. The parameters of the model are estimated using cross sectional customs data on Bangladeshi exports of apparel to the United States and European Union. Counterfactual experiments regarding the effects of reducing costs, both fixed and marginal, or of trade preferences offered by an importing country are performed. The counterfactuals show that reducing fixed costs at various levels has very different effects and suggest that such reductions are more effective in promoting exports when applied at later stages when firms are more committed to production. A subsidy of 1.5 million dollars to industry entry costs raises exports by only 0.4 dollars for every dollar spent, but when applied to fixed costs of production, it raises exports by $25 per dollar spent.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7156 JAN 01, 2015
Cherkashin, Ivan; Demidova, Svetlana; Kee, Hiau Looi; Krishna, Kala
Does research add value to aid? Specifically, does impact evaluation research help or hinder the delivery of development projects? This paper analyzes the question by constructing a new data set of 100 impact evaluations and 1,135 projects approved by the World Bank between 2005 and 2011.
... Voir la suite The analysis finds that the delivery of projects with impact evaluation is significantly timelier: common delays are avoided and the gap between planned and actual disbursements is reduced by half. Evidence-based mid-course corrections, a clearer implementation road map, strengthened capacity on the ground, and observer effects are possible channels to explain the results. Hopefully, this analysis will stimulate discussion over the optimal balance between project financing and the impact evaluation research needed to deliver development outcomes.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7157 JAN 01, 2015
This paper assesses the impact of the rise of China on the trade of Latin American and Caribbean economies. The study proposes an index to measure the impact on trade, which suggests sizable effects, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Honduras, Mexico, and Paraguay.
... Voir la suite The paper uses the index and a model of labor mobility, to calculate the impact of China's growth on labor markets in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The resulting evidence suggests that the rise of China has had positive effects on agriculture and mining in Argentina and Brazil, which offset negative impacts on manufacturing industries, thus leaving total employment and real wages virtually unchanged in the long run. In contrast, the estimated impacts of China's rise on Mexico imply that the sizable shock to manufacturing was not offset by the positive shocks on mining and agriculture, reducing employment in the long run. The paper also discusses the effect of China on the degree of informality in these three economies and contrasts short-run and long-run effects on employment and wages across industries.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7155 JAN 01, 2015
This document has been produced by the World Bank to support the Government of Guatemala as it improves its transport and logistics sector management in pursuit of enhanced country competitiveness.
... Voir la suite It identifies and defines elements of a National Transport and Logistics Strategy (NTLS) through the development of a methodology which analyzes bottlenecks and related costs along the main logistics corridors. It does so with a view to (a) mobilizing support in the trading community (essentially private sector) for logistic service improvements, (b) identifying the need for broader public-sector reforms in transport which indirectly impact logistics performance, and (c) helping the Government to set sector priorities and hence to prioritize public investment. At the same time, it points out where improved data and monitoring of performance are needed in order to better quantify economic costs, diagnose key logistics issues, and track improved performance. It thereby proposes, as part of the set of recommended activities, to build the Government of Guatemalas capacity to measure performance and take action. While the document is based on sound analysis of some aspects of the countrys logistics system, it must be considered primarily a starting point which is subject to broad country dissemination and debate by public and private stakeholders.
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Document de travail 93529 JAN 01, 2015
Dumitrescu, Anca C.; Smith, Graham; Osborne, Theresa K.
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical.
... Voir la suite An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of gross domestic product, but also because of a structural change in the trade-gross domestic product relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and gross domestic product.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7158 JAN 01, 2015
The majority of Papua New Guinea's population lives in rural areas, largely dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Coffee and cocoa are the main cash crops, with half of the country's total workforce involved in their production, processing, and sale.
... Voir la suite Despite its importance, the quality and productivity of Papua New Guinea's coffee has been declining, largely due to a lack of replanting, limited incentives for smallholder farmers, and poor access to markets. The cocoa industry has been experiencing similar issues in addition to the threat posed by the cocoa pod borer. The Productive Partnerships in Agriculture Project (PPAP) aims to combat these problems in order to improve the livelihoods of smallholder cocoa and coffee producers, and promote rural development and poverty reduction more broadly.
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