The Palestinian Authoritys (PA) fiscal situation remains difficult and the latest conflict in Gaza has placed further pressure on an already tight budget.
... Voir la suite This short working paper describes the current fiscal situations facing the PA. Included in this report are a number of projections about certain legislative bills and predictions for quarters 2 and 3. The PA has continued to push forward its reform agenda but progress in certain areas such as revenues and arrears accounting has slowed.
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In the third quarter of 2014 (Q3), the Philippine economy expanded by 5.3 percent its slowest pace in 11 quarters. Growth slowed down due to the contraction of government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.
... Voir la suite The services sector the main engine of growth also slowed to its lowest level in 12 quarters. For Q3 2014 and for the first 3 quarters of 2014, Philippine growth is about average when compared to the major economies in the East Asia region. Capital outflows resulted in a full-year balance of payments deficit of about USD 3.4 billion, the first in a decade. However, the current account remains in strong surplus, supported by robust remittances, while international reserves continue to be at comfortable levels at more than 10 months of imports. Inflation started to moderate, with positive impact on both households and businesses while government spending contracted significantly in Q3 and constituted a further drag on growth. Sustaining government spending in the near-term will require significant improvements in budget planning and execution as the current 28-year old system, already at capacity, is hard pressed to support higher spending. Going forward, the Philippines needs to accelerate reforms that can translate higher growth into more inclusive growth the type that creates more and better jobs so that poverty can be reduced massively and prosperity shared by more people. Overall, the country has an investment gap (both physical and human capital) of around 6.8 percent of GDP as of 2014. The document outlines this investment gap.
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This report contains the World Bank Group Boards calendar for the period of January 2015 to March 2015, specifying the Boards engagements, such as meetings, briefings, and other Bank happenings.
... Voir la suite It is updated as of January 15, 2015.
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Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies.
... Voir la suite Weak global trade growth and lower commodity prices are projected to persist while financial conditions will likely tighten gradually. Risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside. The stability of remittances may help some of the lowest-income countries weather shocks. In some developing economies, monetary policy challenges may be attenuated if falling commodity prices reduce inflationary pressures. Fiscal stimulus could effectively support growth if there is sufficient fiscal space. Some developing countries, however, have to rebuild fiscal space to preserve their ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, which has served them well over the decade. Both high-income and developing countries need to undertake structural reforms that promote growth and job creation and help achieve poverty reduction goals. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a twice yearly basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through extensive research in the January edition and shorter pieces in the June edition.
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This paper focuses on developments in the European Economic and Monetary Union sovereign debt markets in the past decade. The ?rst part analyzes the integration and segmentation structure of the bond markets of the Economic and Monetary Union before and after the sovereign debt crisis, by introducing the novel concept of correlation-based stable networks.
... Voir la suite Accordingly, a fair integration is observed between the bond markets during the pre-crisis period. However, a strict segmentation emerges, separating the members struggling with debt problems and the ones with relatively strong ?scal performances during the sovereign debt turmoil. The segmentation structure is clearly visualized, revealing the potential paths for crisis and recovery transmission in the future. In the second part, the paper comments on the recent decreasing trend in Economic and Monetary Union member bond yields and their increasing degree of co-movement. Accordingly, the paper argues that these changes do not depend on the ?scal performances of the member countries, but depend on the illusion of quality that appeared with the Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) tapering signals in early 2013.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7149 JAN 01, 2015
This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products).
... Voir la suite This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia's exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia's full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia's trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia's nontraditional exports.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7151 JAN 01, 2015
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical.
... Voir la suite An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of gross domestic product, but also because of a structural change in the trade-gross domestic product relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and gross domestic product.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7158 JAN 01, 2015
More than 80 percent of Papua New Guinea's population lives in rural areas. Most of these people depend on subsistence activities such as smallholder farming and fishing as well as alluvial mining and betel nut sales for their livelihoods.
... Voir la suite One of the main barriers to shared growth and development in rural areas is poor quality and lack of access to information and communication technologies (ICT). In fact, access levels are some of the lowest in the world. Service delivery is extremely low due to high prices and limited investment in access networks. In mid-2007, total tele-density was just four percent countrywide and zero percent in the majority of rural areas. Private operators and aggressive competition in the mobile sector has resulted in increased coverage and access. Despite this, access is still limited in many parts of the country. The objective of the Rural Communications Project is to facilitate improved access to affordable and reliable telecommunications in rural and remote areas of Papua New Guinea. The project will provide telecommunications access to nearly 500,000 rural Papua New Guineans and facilitate broadband internet access in rural district centres that currently do not have any form of internet services.
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The Government of Papua New Guinea aims to increase the size and economic contribution of the domestic private sector consisting mainly of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a focus on generating employment.
... Voir la suite Despite large external investments in Papua New Guineas resource sector, private sector activity in the formal economy is low. In particular, women and young people remain dependent on small-scale, informal businesses for their livelihoods. There are currently significant constraints to SME growth and investment, chief among which is the difficulty in accessing credits by SMEs, despite sufficient liquidity in the banking sector. This occurs for two main reasons. Firstly, SMEs often lack the collateral, information or guarantees needed to meet commercial banks requirements for lending. Secondly, banks perceive high levels of risk in lending to SMEs. Addressing these impediments should enable local SMEs to more actively engage in economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction across Papua New Guinea.
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In recent years, many emerging market countries have developed or are in the process of developing SME Exchanges to provide financing to SMEs, but few have succeeded.
... Voir la suite This paper aims to help stock exchanges and policy makers think through the key questions to be addressed to determine if, when, how and for whom to develop an SME Exchange in emerging market countries. It takes stock of some of the actions that exchanges can take to reduce issuance costs, in time and money for SMEs, without compromising the prudential needs of investors. The paper draws on the experience of seven SME Exchanges and the World Federation of Exchanges that participated in a workshop organized and led by the WBG to discuss these and other questions. It does not recommend a specific model to follow and does not address specific context issues, however the analysis suggests approaches that are widespread and/or could be beneficial to consider such as (1) focus on SMEs with a sizeable growth rate, (2) have the SME exchange legally related to the main board, (3) do not reduce disclosure content to reduce costs, (4) allow private placements, (5) have well regulated advisors to vet issuers and provide comfort to investors about the quality of the issue, (6) have outreach, public awareness campaign and training for SMEs, (7) consider tax incentives for investors. The report is the first in a series on this topic, and subsequent reports will address and expand on related and broader issues.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7160 JAN 01, 2015
Every discussion of the Caribbean states considers their characteristics as sea-locked countries, small economies, highly vulnerable to natural disasters, and a geographic platform that calls for regional cooperation and integration.
... Voir la suite The Caribbean Sea is the most important vehicle and the most challenging obstacle Caribbean countries have to connect with the world. This report measures and analyzes the Caribbean region's air and maritime connectivity, by taking a sample of 15 countries that represent 64 percent of the Caribbean population and 59 percent of the region's gross domestic product. The report finds that the most salient issue of Caribbean logistics is the huge costs associated with trade, driven by embedded inefficiencies in customs systems and document preparation processes. The report also documents how the Caribbean air transport network is characterized by fierce competition between the islands for tourists from abroad, rather than coordinated efforts to promote Caribbean tourism. This has led to suboptimal routing based on distorting subsidy schemes with often unstainable volumes and load factors, raising questions about the sustainability of many of the extra-Caribbean routes, and indicating a need for route consolidation. Air connectivity within and among Caribbean states is poor and represents an opportunity to develop alternative and more competitive private sector-led services such as inter-island ferries and low-cost air shuttle services. Maritime connectivity for freight is well structured around two coexisting and functional hub-and-spoke systems (intra-regional with a hub in Trinidad and extra-regional with a hub in the Miami area) that effectively serve all the Caribbean countries. Yet, tariffs are high by worldwide standards and are likely driven by high market concentration in a handful of shipping liners.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7169 JAN 01, 2015
Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia; Bofinger, Heinrich C.; Cubas, Diana; Millan-Placci, Maria Florencia
Although the payment models offered by off-grid energy companies are less flexible than those implemented with great success by mobile telephone companies, they may still have an important role to play in scaling up off-grid energy services for billions of people who lack access to electricity.
... Voir la suite More research is needed to assess the importance of flexible payments in attracting reliable low-income customers.
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