This paper shows how Dutch disease effects may arise solely from a shift in demand following a natural resource discovery. The natural resource wealth increases the demand for non-tradable luxury services due to non-homothetic preferences.
... Voir la suite Labor that could be used to develop other non-resource tradable sectors is pulled into these service sectors. As a result, manufactures and other tradable goods are more likely to be imported, and learning and productivity improvements accrue to the foreign exporters. However, once the natural resources diminish, there is less income to purchase the services and non-resource tradable goods. Thus, the temporary gain in purchasing power translates into long-term stagnation. As opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes, an unequal distribution of the rents from resource wealth further intensifies the Dutch disease dynamics within this framework.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6966 JUL 01, 2014
The objectives of Improving Disaster Risk Management Project for Mongolia are to identify and explain potential key environmental and social safeguards issues associated with the project and approaches to address the issues.
... Voir la suite Some of the negative impacts and mitigation measures include: the project is a technical assistance and does not have direct impact on environmental or social safeguard issues. However, the UB city flood risk management plan, designed under sub-component A.1.3, may in future result into investments that have implications on the environment. Therefore, the Environmental Assessment Policy (OP4.01) and the Involuntary Resettlement Policy (OP 4.12) are triggered. The relevant environmental and social safeguards policies objectives and elements will be part of the planning process, terms of reference for the plan and the capacity building grant activities to the relevant line ministries and Ulaanbaatar city. This includes among others, aspects related to the identification and mitigation of potential environmental impacts and inclusion of the vulnerable and marginalized groups of people in project activities.
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As Brazil and China have become two of the largest global economies, they have also become increasingly connected. Three decades of fast-paced growth and structural change have turned China into the worlds second-largest economy and have transformed it into an upper-middle income country.
... Voir la suite Brazil, which had experienced its own episode of high growth between 1965 and 1974, has also become one of the largest economies. Over the last decade, Brazil and China have developed increasingly close linkages, which has come as no surprise given the scale of their economies, the complementary structure of resource endowments as well as the differences between the two countries in the structure of production and demand. This report examines how structural change in China is expected to present new opportunities and challenges for Brazil to enhance its global position and energize growth. Building on recent work (World Bank and Development Research Center, 2013), this report identifies three potential longer-term transformations of the Chinese economy structurally slower growth, a rebalancing on the demand and supply side, and a move up the value chain and examines their implications for Brazil. The report shows how the slowdown and rebalancing of China may also present new opportunities for Brazil, even if Chinas progression up the value chain is likely to present also new challenges. It lays out how Brazil could generate greater benefits from its interactions with China and how the changes in China would offer a new window of opportunity for Brazil to press ahead with its structural reform agenda. Overall, Brazil could gain tremendously from the anticipated structural changes in China, even though realizing these gains will require a proactive policy stance to enhance external ties and address internal growth and productivity constraints.
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The development objectives of the Improving Disaster Risk Management Project for Mongolia are to improve the disaster preparedness of Ulaanbaatar (UB) and to reduce the impact of dzud on rural livelihoods.
... Voir la suite Some of the negative impacts and mitigation measures include: (1) mapping flood risks by micro zone in order to determine the exact nature and level of risk in different parts of the city; (2) designing and developing database on hazards and vulnerabilities to enable UB to quantify the total risks it faces and subsequently preparing a cost-benefit analysis for prevention and mitigation of risks; (3) designing UB city flood risk management plan and capacity building to enable the city to respond effectively and reduce the loss of lives and assets; (4) reviewing the quality of the work carried out, such as the training and flood risk management plan developed under the project with a view of providing tangible recommendations for the city and project management unit to follow and improve project outcomes; (5) supporting institutionalization of the livestock early warning system (LEWS) within the national agency for meteorology, hydrology, and environmental monitoring (NAMHEM); and (6) designing and piloting a new feed and fodder supply system to allow vegetation to grow to full maturity and be harvested, packed, and stored for the winter, ensuring readily available emergency feed supply for the beneficiary herder households.
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The development objective of the Xian Sustainable Urban Transport Project for China is to improve accessibility and mobility in Xian while protecting its cultural heritage and reducing the environmental impact of urban transport system, with a focus on the Ming walled city.
... Voir la suite In line with the Bank's operation policy for involuntary resettlement OP 4.12 and taking into consideration the City of Xian local laws and regulations, resettlement codes of practice and policies of the People's Republic of China. This Resettlement Action Plan has the following principles and objectives : avoid and minimize involuntary resettlement and land acquisition associated with road upgrading construction; land acquisition or resettlement will be entirely voluntary and be limited to situation were Project Affected Peoples (PAPs) will be the beneficiaries of services and facilities offered by the project; ensure that relocation sites chosen cause minimal disturbance to the livelihood and living standards of PAPs; provide recovery or compensation for the loss of land, working place, cultural property, trees and infrastructure, etc.; keep in tough with PAPs during the removal period for timely settlement of potential problems (disputes); finally, conduct meetings with residents (farmers), business and enterprise owners to notify them on the progress of the removal process and compensation standards.
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The development objective of the Xian Sustainable Urban Transport Project for China is to improve accessibility and mobility in Xian while protecting its cultural heritage and reducing the environmental impact of urban transport system, with a focus on the Ming walled city.
... Voir la suite In line with the Bank's operation policy for involuntary resettlement OP 4.12 and taking into consideration the City of Xian local laws and regulations, resettlement codes of practice and policies of the People's Republic of China. This Resettlement Action Plan has the following principles and objectives : avoid and minimize involuntary resettlement and land acquisition associated with road upgrading construction; land acquisition or resettlement will be entirely voluntary and be limited to situation were Project Affected Peoples (PAPs) will be the beneficiaries of services and facilities offered by the project; ensure that relocation sites chosen cause minimal disturbance to the livelihood and living standards of PAPs; provide recovery or compensation for the loss of land, working place, cultural property, trees and infrastructure, etc.; keep in tough with PAPs during the removal period for timely settlement of potential problems (disputes); finally, conduct meetings with residents (farmers), business and enterprise owners to notify them on the progress of the removal process and compensation standards.
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This paper reviews key issues in the 'cash versus food' debate, including as they relate to political economy, theory, evidence, and practice.
... Voir la suite In doing so, it benefited from a new generation of 12 impact evaluations deliberately comparing alternative transfer modalities. Findings show that differences in effectiveness vary by indicator, although they tend to be moderate on average. In some cases differences are more marked (i.e., food consumption and calorie availability), but in most instances they are not statistically significant. In general, transfers' performance and their difference seem a function of the organic and fluid interactions among factors like the profile and 'initial conditions' of beneficiaries, the capacity of local markets, and program objectives and design. Costs associated with cash transfers and vouchers tend to be substantially lower relative to food. Yet methods for cost-effectiveness analysis vary and need to be more standardized and nuanced. The reviewed evaluations are helping to shift the debate from one shaped by ideology, political economy and 'inference' of evidence to one centering on robust and context-specific results.
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Document de travail (série numérotée) 89502 JUL 01, 2014
Several high-level reports have raised the concern that low-income countries, especially in Africa, are experiencing premature de-industrialization.
... Voir la suite The concern is that they are growing without transforming. Have the latecomers to development missed the boat? Although these concerns are well placed, Africa's growth seems to be benefitting from a structural transformation of a different kind. The manufacturing sector as a share of gross domestic product has shrunk, but countries have benefitted from the third industrial revolution with globalization of services being at the forefront of this technological revolution. As services produced and traded across the world expand with globalization, the possibilities for low-income countries to develop based on their comparative advantage expand. That comparative advantage can just as easily be in services as in manufacturing. Comparative advantage need not be a one-trick pony.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6971 JUL 01, 2014
Firms very rarely cut nominal wages, even in the face of considerable negative economic shocks. This paper uses a unique survey of fourteen European countries to ask firms directly about the incidence of wage cuts and to assess the relevance of a range of potential reasons for why the firms avoid cutting wages.
... Voir la suite The paper examines how firm characteristics and collective bargaining institutions affect the relevance of each of the common explanations put forward for the infrequency of wage cuts. Concerns about the retention of productive staff and a lowering of morale and effort were reported as key reasons for downward wage rigidity across all countries and firm types. Restrictions created by collective bargaining were found to be an important consideration for firms in Western European (EU-15) countries but were one of the lowest ranked obstacles in the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6976 JUL 01, 2014
A vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients is used to examine the evolution of wage cyclicality in four Latin American economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, during the period 1980-2010.
... Voir la suite Wages are highly pro-cyclical in all countries up to the mid-1990s except in Chile. Wage cyclicality declines thereafter, especially in Brazil and Colombia. This decline in wage cyclicality is in accordance with declining real-wage flexibility in a low-inflation environment. Controlling for compositional effects caused by changes in labor force participation along the business cycle does not alter these results.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6978 JUL 01, 2014
Ratings for the Second Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF2) for Public Financial Management Modernization Project for Vietnam were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, the risk to development outcome was moderate, the Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and the Borrower performance was also moderately satisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: MDTF2 was restructured after about two and haft years of slow implementation so as to fit it into the new reality and to keep it running at difficult times. The task team, from the design stage, already envisioned a flexible mechanism in adjusting the scope and result framework over the course of implementation. The restructuring helped sharpen the project's focus and better articulated its role in the Government overall PFM reforms. Appropriate restructuring, as shown in this case of MDTF, attributed to accelerating the political momentum for reforms on the MOF side that in turn led to successful completion of the project by the end of 2013. This innovative approach to project management provided tangible incentives and accountability for the beneficiaries to deliver. It is worth noting, however, that the delegation by itself could not guarantee success. Rather, it had to be conducted in tandem with: (1) appropriate institutional arrangement whereby the Project Management Unit or PMU retained its role as coordinator, facilitator, and supervisor; and (2) enhanced frequency and efficacy of communication among the Bank task team, or PMU, and implementing agencies. For future Technical Assistance, or TA operation, it will be desirable to define at the design stage a few selected key areas of strategic focus for support while keeping a small part of the program open to respond to newly identified priorities and adjust for changes in the pace of on-going reforms.
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR3046 JUN 30, 2014
Ratings for the Inner City Basic Services for the Poor Project for Jamaica were as follows: outcomes were satisfactory, risk to development outcome was moderate, Bank performance was satisfactory, and Borrower performance was satisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: community engagement in project design during preparation and implementation helps ensure relevance and builds community capacity. One of the main implementation and sustainability challenges the project faced was attaining the service providers commitment to assume responsibility for the works and to provide service to the areas. The service providers were reluctant to enter the communities based on internal financial and technical constraints as well as the communities low capacity to pay for services. The sectionalized approach caused tension within the communities given that at times houses along one side of the road were receiving access to a new service and houses on the other side of were not. Community members and Jamaica social investment fund (JSIF) highlighted the importance of increasing sensitivity to the issue in future projects to limit community conflict. The Government of Jamaica (GoJ) sought the Banks assistance with innovative, multi sector project given successful past experience working together. The Bank had the confidence to finance a highly ambitious project given JSIFs demonstrated capacity to implement. Ensuring monitoring and evaluation (M and E) approach takes into account latest best practices as well as local context.
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR963 JUN 25, 2014
The objective of the Standardized Operations Risk-rating Tool (SORT) is to help the World Bank consistently assess and monitor risks across all operational instruments and country programs.
... Voir la suite The risks considered are the risks to development results associated with the operation: both the risks to not achieving the intended (positive) results; and those causing unintended (negative) results. The SORT provides the information needed to help clients adequately manage and, where possible, mitigate operational risks within a broader risk management framework. It is intended to identify those risks on which the Bank needs to focus management attention and resources - within any given operation or at the level of the country, region, global practice or cross-cutting solution area. The SORT will: (i) systematically and consistently rate risks of operational and country engagements in all regions and across all operations; (ii) help focus management attention on high and substantial risk operations and on particular risks within operations during implementation; and (iii) provide a light but systematic and contestable way of identifying the appropriate level of corporate review process and any need for Board discussion. The SORT also applies to Country Partnership Frameworks (CPF), in order to focus management attention on high risk CPFs to better link risk management at the country program level with risk management at the operational level, and to establish risk management as an integral part of country engagement. The SORT is harmonized across instruments and regions. The SORT will be the primary source of information for the so-called "risk lists". Following the overview, this guidance note is organized as follows: section II describes the SORT and its components; section III provides an overview of the process of preparing and reviewing the SORT; and section IV provides guidance on how to rate risks in each category.
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Ratings for the Caatinga Conservation and Management - Mata Branca (GEF) Project for Brazil were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, risk to global environment outcome was substantial, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: despite available time and resources, lack of quality at entry and suboptimal initial supervision were directly to blame for many of the subsequent problems during implementation. Many of the problems that affected project performance were related to the states' political and sociocultural context. Despite its shortcomings, the project demonstrated that sub-grants channeled through properly supervised subprojects and implemented by local stakeholders are a highly effective means of achieving project outputs.
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR3138 JUN 20, 2014
Ratings for the Second Phase of the Adaptable Lending Program in Support of the Second and Third Phases of the Social and Fiscal National Identification System (SINTyS) Project for Argentina were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, risk to development outcome was moderate, Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and Borrower performance was satisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: early institutionalization of SINTyS helped to ensure the sustainability of project activities. Given the constant evolution in technology, it is critical that technology intensive projects be attentive to changes and how advances can impact business model. While the complexity of projects that are intensive in the procurement of information and communication technology (ICT) products and services can often result in delays, strong coordination between the SINTyS and the Bank team can help ensure the timely completion of planned activities. While project design should include sufficient indicators to monitor progress on key aspects of implementation, too many results indicators can complicate monitoring efforts.
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR3017 JUN 19, 2014
The development objective of the Statistical Capacity Building Project for South Sudan is to strengthen the capacity of statistics producers in South Sudan to produce and disseminate official statistics.
... Voir la suite The project comprises of five components. The first component, legal reforms and institutional development will support to strengthen the recipients legal and institutional framework for statistics. The second component will support to the recipient to build capacity in data producing agencies. The third component will support to the recipient to build information and communications technology (ICT) and statistical infrastructure. The fourth component, data development and dissemination will provide support to the recipient to generate, process, and disseminate data products and services. The fifth component, project management will support to the recipient to strengthen its capacity for project planning and budgeting, management, coordination, monitoring and evaluation activities, all through the provision of technical advisory services, training, operating costs, and the acquisition of goods.
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Document d’évaluation du projet PAD580 JUN 19, 2014