The Palestinian Authoritys (PA) fiscal situation remains difficult and the latest conflict in Gaza has placed further pressure on an already tight budget.
... Voir la suite This short working paper describes the current fiscal situations facing the PA. Included in this report are a number of projections about certain legislative bills and predictions for quarters 2 and 3. The PA has continued to push forward its reform agenda but progress in certain areas such as revenues and arrears accounting has slowed.
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The most severe impact of the Ebola epidemic, which began in Guinea in December 2013 and quickly spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone, has been in lost human lives and suffering.
... Voir la suite This report, prepared for the World Economic Forum at Davos, focuses on the indirect, economic costs, in particular the effects on economic output in 2015. Most of the economic cost is driven by aversion behavior, which consists of both the actions taken by individuals to avoid exposure to the illness and actions taken by investors in anticipation of those individual choices. The report first estimates the impact of the epidemic on gross domestic product (GDP) in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Here the report builds on sector-specific analysis to update World Bank forecasts for the three countries, and incorporates recent results of World Bank-financed cellphone surveys in Liberia and Sierra Leone. The authors evaluate the economic effects of the epidemic on the continent, beyond the three hardest-hit countries, using assessments by World Bank country economists across the 48 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Finally, the report updates estimates from the global economic model of the research arm of the World Bank, to quantify the 2015 impact of the potential spread of the epidemic to other countries. Updated general equilibrium analysis suggests that further spread of the epidemic to other African economies, if the epidemic is not contained and instances of infection continue to occur in other countries, can potentially exact an economic toll of the order of 6 billion dollars. The results underscore the importance of: (a) Ebola and broader pandemic preparedness in African countries; and (b) reaching the goal of zero new cases as soon as possible in the three most affected countries.
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Document de travail 93721 JAN 20, 2015
Thomas, Mark Roland; Smith, Gregory; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Evans, David; Maliszewska, Maryla; Cruz, Marcio; Himelein, Kristen; Over, Mead
In the third quarter of 2014 (Q3), the Philippine economy expanded by 5.3 percent its slowest pace in 11 quarters. Growth slowed down due to the contraction of government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.
... Voir la suite The services sector the main engine of growth also slowed to its lowest level in 12 quarters. For Q3 2014 and for the first 3 quarters of 2014, Philippine growth is about average when compared to the major economies in the East Asia region. Capital outflows resulted in a full-year balance of payments deficit of about USD 3.4 billion, the first in a decade. However, the current account remains in strong surplus, supported by robust remittances, while international reserves continue to be at comfortable levels at more than 10 months of imports. Inflation started to moderate, with positive impact on both households and businesses while government spending contracted significantly in Q3 and constituted a further drag on growth. Sustaining government spending in the near-term will require significant improvements in budget planning and execution as the current 28-year old system, already at capacity, is hard pressed to support higher spending. Going forward, the Philippines needs to accelerate reforms that can translate higher growth into more inclusive growth the type that creates more and better jobs so that poverty can be reduced massively and prosperity shared by more people. Overall, the country has an investment gap (both physical and human capital) of around 6.8 percent of GDP as of 2014. The document outlines this investment gap.
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This report contains the World Bank Group Boards calendar for the period of January 2015 to March 2015, specifying the Boards engagements, such as meetings, briefings, and other Bank happenings.
... Voir la suite It is updated as of January 15, 2015.
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Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies.
... Voir la suite Weak global trade growth and lower commodity prices are projected to persist while financial conditions will likely tighten gradually. Risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside. The stability of remittances may help some of the lowest-income countries weather shocks. In some developing economies, monetary policy challenges may be attenuated if falling commodity prices reduce inflationary pressures. Fiscal stimulus could effectively support growth if there is sufficient fiscal space. Some developing countries, however, have to rebuild fiscal space to preserve their ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, which has served them well over the decade. Both high-income and developing countries need to undertake structural reforms that promote growth and job creation and help achieve poverty reduction goals. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a twice yearly basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through extensive research in the January edition and shorter pieces in the June edition.
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The development objectives of the Phase two of the Syr Darya Control and Northern Aral Sea Project for Kazakhstan are to improve flood management capacity and improve water provision for developing aquaculture and other socioeconomic activities in the project areas along the lower Syr Darya.
... Voir la suite Some of the negative impacts and mitigation measures include: the lost irrigated lands are compensated by the identical agricultural lands, i.e identical soil fertility level and productivity. Compensation is meant to give the owners an opportunity to restore the pre-project level of livelihood. These procedures are related both to the legislation of RK and procedures of World bank; affected persons are entitled to be compensated at full replacement cost for their lost assets, incomes and businesses, including temporary losses or impacts, without adjustments for depreciation; compensation should enable affected persons to restore at least their pre-project incomes and standard of living by the end of the project; special attention should be given to households headed by women and other vulnerable persons and appropriate assistance provided to assure that their living standards are maintained or improved; land acquisition and resettlement are executed as part of the project and fully funded; and compensation will be fully provided before land can be entered for civil works or demolition.
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Cities in developing countries are experiencing unprecedented growth. But this is often accompanied by the negative impacts of car-dependent urbanization such as congestion, air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, inefficient use of energy and time, and social inequality of accessibility.
... Voir la suite The World Bank's transforming cities with transit: transit and land-use integration for sustainable urban development (Suzuki, Cervero, and Iuchi 2013) concluded that compact, mixed-use; pedestrian-friendly development organized around a transit station is one of the most effective strategic initiatives to address the negative effects of motorization. Despite increasing recognition of transit-oriented development as an effective strategic approach for sustainable urban development, most cities, particularly those in developing countries, do not have the practical know-how and expertise to make transit-oriented development happen. Because these cities are almost always under a severe fiscal constraint, they face great challenges in financing capital-intensive mass transit systems to reverse car-dependent urbanization. Development-based land value capture (LVC) in Hong Kong SAR, China; Tokyo; New York; Washington, DC; and London allows these cities not only to generate funds for transit investment and operation and maintenance but also to promote sustainable urban development. If adapted well to local contexts, such schemes have great potential to become an effective finance and planning apparatus for cities in developing countries.
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Document de travail 92250 JAN 13, 2015
Hiroaki Suzuki; Jin Murakami; Yuhung Hong; Tamayose, Beth
This report contains the World Bank Group Boards' calendar for the period of January 2015 to March 2015, specifying the Boards' engagements, such as meetings and briefings.
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This paper focuses on developments in the European Economic and Monetary Union sovereign debt markets in the past decade. The ?rst part analyzes the integration and segmentation structure of the bond markets of the Economic and Monetary Union before and after the sovereign debt crisis, by introducing the novel concept of correlation-based stable networks.
... Voir la suite Accordingly, a fair integration is observed between the bond markets during the pre-crisis period. However, a strict segmentation emerges, separating the members struggling with debt problems and the ones with relatively strong ?scal performances during the sovereign debt turmoil. The segmentation structure is clearly visualized, revealing the potential paths for crisis and recovery transmission in the future. In the second part, the paper comments on the recent decreasing trend in Economic and Monetary Union member bond yields and their increasing degree of co-movement. Accordingly, the paper argues that these changes do not depend on the ?scal performances of the member countries, but depend on the illusion of quality that appeared with the Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) tapering signals in early 2013.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7149 JAN 01, 2015
This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products).
... Voir la suite This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia's exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia's full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia's trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia's nontraditional exports.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7151 JAN 01, 2015
The paper investigates determinants of civic participation in local budget processes in rural areas in the Kyrgyz Republic by using data from the Life in Kyrgyzstan survey, conducted in 2012.
... Voir la suite The analysis of the data suggests that although civic awareness and interest in local budget processes is relatively high, the participation rate in local budgeting processes is low. The paper also shows that interest, awareness, and participation are positively associated with the age, education, employment, risk-taking attitudes, trust, and social capital of respondents. The paper documents that unawareness and lack of participation are largely related to being female, of non-Kyrgyz ethnic origin, inactive in the labor market, recent internal migrants, and residents of communities with poor infrastructure.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7154 JAN 01, 2015