In countries with limited access to finance, firms accumulate retained earnings to finance indivisible investment projects. McKinnon (1973) illustrates that when cash is used as a primary store of value, inflation may discourage investment as it increases the cost of accumulating retained earnings.
... Voir la suite This paper formalizes this argument in a dynamic framework and provides a simple calibration of the model that suggests sizable effects of inflation on investment. The mechanism is particularly relevant for small firms, as firms with lower cash flows must accumulate retained earnings for longer periods of time to meet the price of indivisible investment goods. Consistent with the model, empirical evidence suggests that inflation disproportionately reduces investment in small firms.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6972 JUL 01, 2014
Turkey has historically struggled to attract foreign investors. This paper argues that not only macroeconomic and political stability, but also regional integration explains the upsurge in foreign direct investment observed since 2005.
... Voir la suite The analysis draws from a qualitative framework. It discusses how, contrary to the Customs Union Treaty for industrial products with the European Union, the official start of the European Union's accession to negotiations in 2005 encompassed a wide set of reforms in several chapters directly or indirectly affecting the business climate. The reforms helped to enhance foreign direct investment attraction in Turkey. However, it seems that the global economic slowdown starting in 2009 and increasing Euro-skepticism have already started to erode this effect. Only large foreign investment in the energy sector observed in 2009-13, explained by the energy security strategy of the European Union and the privatization agenda, has prevented the collapse of foreign direct investment inflows to Turkey.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6970 JUL 01, 2014
Sanchez Martin, Miguel Eduardo; Escribano Frances, Gonzalo; de Arce Borda, Rafael
This paper assembles novel data on the Chilean wine industry to investigate the role of investments in knowledge capital on sales growth in domestic and international markets.
... Voir la suite The study uses archival data collected from the Government of Chile to compile and categorize public expenditures and programs supporting the Chilean wine industry over the period of 1990-2012 into investment in different types of knowledge capital. These spending categories are related to industry-level sales growth. The paper finds that the most important correlate is spending on research and development. The study also uses data from a new survey of Chilean wine firms to capture information on firm-specific investments in knowledge capital. The findings show that investments in collaboration capital, in particular hiring foreign consultants, as well as participation in international wine fairs are the strongest correlates of growth in export sales, while spending on aspects of branding (local advertising and brand design) are the strongest correlates of domestic market sales growth.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6983 JUL 01, 2014
Dutz, Mark A.; O'Connell, Stephen D.; Troncoso, Javier L.
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze and derive simple budget rules in the face of volatile public revenue from natural resources in a low-income country like Niger.
... Voir la suite The simulation results suggest three policy lessons or rules of thumb. When a resource price change is positive and temporary, the best strategy is to save the revenue windfall in a sovereign fund, and use the interest income from the fund to raise citizens' consumption over time. This strategy is preferred to investing in public capital domestically, even when private investment benefits from an enhanced public capital stock. Domestic investment raises the prices of domestic goods, leaving less money for government to transfer to households; public investment is not 100 percent effective in raising output. In the presence of a negative temporary resource price change, however, the best strategy is to cut public investment. This strategy dominates other methods, such as trimming government transfers to households, which reduces consumption directly, or borrowing, which incurs an interest premium as debt rises. In the presence of persistent (positive and negative) shocks, the best strategy is a mix of public investment and saving abroad in a balanced regime that provides a natural insurance against both types of price shocks. The combination of interest income from the sovereign fund, transfers to households, and output growth brought about by public investment provides the best protective mechanism to smooth consumption over time in response to changing resource prices.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6984 JUL 01, 2014
Aging of populations and convergence between developed and developing countries in per capita incomes are shaping the evolution of saving, investment, capital flows, and, in particular, the cost of capital.
... Voir la suite When considering these trends, the existing literature argues for either continued, low interest rates, or sharply rising ones. This paper presents an alternative view: modest rises in interest rates, which result from a combination of increases in the global weight of high-saving developing economies (limiting declines in global saving), and decelerations in the rate of growth in developing countries (constraining upward pressure in global investment). For the majority of countries, slowing capital demand resulting from decelerating growth, coupled with structural changes that influence its attractiveness as a destination for capital, moderate increases in interest rates. Changes in key assumptions do not alter this view. More specifically, the small rise in interest rates persists even in a scenario where growth in developing countries decelerates more slowly, or when elasticities governing the behavior of saving and investment are varied.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6989 JUL 01, 2014
Bussolo, Maurizio; Lim, Jamus Jerome; Maliszewska, Maryla; Timmer, Hans
This report contains the World Bank Group Boards' calendar for the period of July to September 2014, specifying the Boards' engagements, such as meetings and briefings.
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Generating growth and creating jobs within a sustainable fiscal framework is Georgias biggest macroeconomic challenge. Although Georgia registered rapid growth of 5.7 percent a year during 2010-13, unemployment remains high at 15 percent.
... Voir la suite New growth companies, especially in tourism and other service sectors, did not generate enough formal or even informal employment. Fiscal policy played a crucial role in Georgias recent growth performance with a fiscal stimulus driven post-crisis recovery which increased deficit and debt levels followed by fiscal consolidation during 2010-12 when recovery took hold. The weak execution of the budget in 2013 and policy uncertainty were largely responsible for the growth slowdown during the year. Tackling the growth and jobs agenda in Georgia will require significant investment in human and physical capital and the government has a large role to play here. Additional spending, where it is needed, should be undertaken within the fiscal consolidation agenda of the government, designed to help restore the macroeconomic buffers needed to secure stability and sustain confidence in the future. The change in government in 2012 marked a shift in fiscal policy with prioritization of recurrent social expenditures over capital spending, thereby, increasing budget rigidity. During 2012-13, the government raised the benefit levels under the targeted social assistance (TSA) and pensions and introduced universal health care (UHC). As a result, the fiscal deficit is likely to increase from 2.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 to 3.7 percent in 2014. Over the medium term, an aging population and the need to improve health outcomes and coverage of the poor in social assistance programs will keep social expenditures high at more than 9 percent of GDP. The share of capital expenditures will level off, meanwhile. Such an outcome will reduce the governments flexibility in trimming current expenditures in the future.
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Moldova faces the challenge of meeting considerable public investment needs while preserving fiscal sustainability. With a rapidly aging population, high emigration, structural imbalances, and vulnerability to external shocks, Moldova will need to raise investment, productivity, and exports in order to achieve sustained growth and competitiveness.
... Voir la suite The World Bank's recently published Moldova public expenditure review (PER) focuses on capital expenditures and recommends reforms in public investment management and sector policies to raise cost effectiveness and allocative efficiency. Analyses for the PER were conducted using the BOOST public expenditure database developed by the World Bank. It provides recommendations for improving effectiveness and to enhance Moldova's competitiveness and achieve sustained inclusive economic growth.
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This paper proposes methods to incorporate firm heterogeneity in the standard input-output table-based approach to portray the domestic segment of global value chains in a country.
... Voir la suite The analysis uses Chinese firm census data for the manufacturing and service sectors, along with constrained optimization techniques. The conventional input-output table is split into sub-accounts, which are used to estimate direct and indirect domestic value added in exports of different types of firms. The analysis finds that in China, state-owned enterprises and small and medium domestic private enterprises have much higher shares of indirect exports and ratios of value-added exports to gross exports compared with foreign-invested and large domestic private firms. Based on input-output tables for 2007 and 2010, the paper finds increasing value-added export ratios for all firm types, particularly for state-owned enterprises. It also finds that state-owned enterprises are consistently more upstream while small and medium domestic private enterprises are consistently more downstream within industries. These findings suggest that state-owned enterprises still play an important role in shaping China's exports.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6960 JUN 01, 2014
This report contains the World Bank Group Boards' calendar for the period May to July 2014, specifying the Boards' engagements, such as meetings and briefings.
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This paper uses a Ramsey model with two types of capital to analyze the optimal transition to clean capital when polluting investment is irreversible.
... Voir la suite The cost of climate mitigation decomposes as a technical cost of using clean instead of polluting capital and a transition cost from the irreversibility of pre-existing polluting capital. With a carbon price, the transition cost can be limited by underutilizing polluting capital, at the expense of a loss in the value of polluting assets (stranded assets) and a drop in income. In contrast, policy instruments that focus on redirecting investments -- such as feebates or environmental standards -- prevent underutilization of existing capital, avoid stranded assets, and reduce short-term losses; but they reduce emissions more slowly and increase the intertemporal cost of the transition. The paper investigates inter- and intra-generational distributional impacts and the political acceptability of climate change mitigation policy instruments.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6859 MAY 01, 2014
Since the 2008-09 global financial crises, interest among policy makers in promoting innovative, ventures has exploded. The emerging great hubs of entrepreneurial activity, like Bangalore, Dubai, Shanghai, Silicon Valley, Singapore, and Tel Aviv, bear the unmistakable stamp of the public sector.
... Voir la suite Enlightened government intervention played a key role in each region's emergence. But for each effective government intervention, dozens, even hundreds, disappointed, with substantial public spending bearing no fruit. This paper sheds light on how governments can avoid mistakes in stimulating entrepreneurship. In recent decades, efforts have increased to provide the world's poorest with financing and other assistance to facilitate their entry into entrepreneurship or the growth of their small ventures. These are typically subsistence businesses offering services like snack preparation or clothing repair. Such businesses typically allow business owners and their families to get by, but little else. The public policy literature, along with academic studies of new ventures, often does not distinguish among the types of businesses being studied. The author will focus here exclusively on high-potential new ventures and the policies that enhance them. This choice, not intended to diminish the importance of efforts to boost microenterprises, reflects the complexity of the field: the dynamics and issues involving micro firms are quite different from those of their high-potential counterparts. A substantial literature suggests that promising entrepreneurial firms can have a powerful effect in transforming industries and promoting innovation.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6880 MAY 01, 2014
A fundamental goal of any pension system is to ensure that members receive an adequate income when they retire. Although traditional defined benefit pension plans set out how pension income will be determined in advance and then strive to deliver this, the growing number of defined contribution plans accumulate a sum of assets which can then be turned into a pension income on retirement.
... Voir la suite However, the amount of this retirement income is not predefined This frequently leads to a focus by not only most pension providers, but also regulators and pension plan members themselves on the short-term accumulation of pension assets rather than the longer-term goal of securing an adequate retirement income. This paper discusses a possible solution to this challenge: the use of benchmarks to encourage pension funds to invest with the longer-term goal of delivering adequate retirement income in mind. Examples are provided of leading pension funds that already work with long-term, outcome-based benchmarks. The paper suggests a methodology for pension regulators to use in order to incentivize pension funds in their jurisdictions to adopt a similar approach.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6885 MAY 01, 2014
A data set of key macro-sustainability indicators, constructed after several fact-finding missions, and World Bank methodologies on estimating wealth accounting are used to study Mauritania's wealth, which is estimated to be between USD50 and USD60 billion.
... Voir la suite The country's produced wealth represents roughly 12 percent of total wealth, much less than in lower-middle-income countries; by contrast, natural wealth represents approximately 45 percent of the total figure. Renewable resources account for slightly less than two-thirds of natural wealth, with fisheries alone equaling about one-fourth of natural wealth. This is good news for Mauritania, as sound management of these resources may ensure a constant flow of resources in the future and therefore -- with adequate policies -- the achievement of the same or higher levels of welfare for future generations. On the negative side, however, the ratio of net adjusted savings over gross national income is estimated to have been negative since 2006, meaning that the wealth of the country is being depleted. Mauritania has recently joined the ranks of lower-middle-income countries, largely thanks to its considerable natural resources endowment. Over time the mining sector's contribution to gross domestic product has grown significantly and important discoveries continue to be made. The overarching objective of this wealth accounting exercise is thus to support Mauritania to measure its assets better and achieve a more complete picture of the prospects for future income, with a view to better orienting public policies toward sustainable growth and shared prosperity. The paper concludes with several indicative policy recommendations.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6887 MAY 01, 2014