This paper shows how Dutch disease effects may arise solely from a shift in demand following a natural resource discovery. The natural resource wealth increases the demand for non-tradable luxury services due to non-homothetic preferences.
... Voir la suite Labor that could be used to develop other non-resource tradable sectors is pulled into these service sectors. As a result, manufactures and other tradable goods are more likely to be imported, and learning and productivity improvements accrue to the foreign exporters. However, once the natural resources diminish, there is less income to purchase the services and non-resource tradable goods. Thus, the temporary gain in purchasing power translates into long-term stagnation. As opposed to conventional models where income distribution has no effect on economic outcomes, an unequal distribution of the rents from resource wealth further intensifies the Dutch disease dynamics within this framework.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6966 JUL 01, 2014
Ponzis are among the most ubiquitous and least understood phenomena of economic life. They acquired a certain salience with the global financial crisis of 2008 and the crash of Bernie Madoffs celebrated Ponzi scheme.
... Voir la suite This paper explains the structure of Ponzi schemes and goes on to argue that what makes this such a troubling phenomenon is its ability to be camouflaged amidst legitimate practices. It is shown, for instance, that the common practice of giving stock options to employees could be a potential Ponzi that allows corporations to flourish for a while by borrowing from its own future. The paper goes on to discuss the need for intelligent regulation to incise harmful Ponzis (not all Ponzis are harmful) while taking care not to damage other legitimate activities that surround them.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6967 JUL 01, 2014
This knowledge note singles out auctions as an important mechanism that has been implemented in a growing number of countries in recent decades.
... Voir la suite It features case studies of auctions designed to promote the generation of electricity from renewable sources in Brazil, China, and India. Auctions in various forms are being used to promote the generation of electricity from renewable sources. Properly structured auctions can avoid the disadvantages of feed-in tariffs and renewable purchase obligations. Moreover, they offer the best of both of these early mechanisms, providing stable revenue guarantees for investors while also avoiding the risk of overbuilding. They do this by determining both price and quantity in advance. Promoting renewable energy through auctions is important, because experience with the use of auctions can guide future efforts. Among the examples of the benefits to be obtained from generating electricity from renewable sources are (i) increasing countries' energy security by reducing their dependency on fossil fuel imports, (ii) reducing greenhouse gas emissions as part of a worldwide effort to mitigate climate change, (iii) promoting electrification while reducing the need for isolated applications such as diesel generators, and (iv) minimizing local pollution. Auctions are an effective way to stimulate competition among investors, provide price disclosure while eliciting the right amount of investment, and offer revenue stability via long-term contracting.
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Ratings for the Public Sector Development Policy Loan Project for Paraguay were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, the risk to development outcome was moderate, the Bank performance was satisfactory, and the Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: strong national ownership proved once again to be a crucial element of a successful operation. The strong commitment with the reforms is evidenced by the fact that despite the political instability during the Program's implementation, changes were made and outcomes achieved. A strong knowledge background was essential for the choice of policy actions, simultaneously combining relevance and political feasibility. Sustained engagement on the part of the Bank continues to be critical to effectively support reform processes over the medium and long term. The uninterrupted relationship between the Bank and the counterpart even at times when significant reform was not feasible laid grounds for an effective partnership when the opportunity was presented. Supporting a policy area that counts on the clear commitment from the government allows for increasingly complex reforms. In particular, the Government's focus on large taxpayers shows its commitment to shift from improving basic core processes to second generation reforms, and the program's successful support of these measures exhibits the Bank's adequacy as a development partner in the policy area.
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR2961 JUN 13, 2014
Ratings for the Public Sector Development Policy Loan Project for Paraguay were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, the risk to development outcome was moderate, the Bank performance was satisfactory, and the Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: strong national ownership proved once again to be a crucial element of a successful operation. The strong commitment with the reforms is evidenced by the fact that despite the political instability during the Program's implementation, changes were made and outcomes achieved. A strong knowledge background was essential for the choice of policy actions, simultaneously combining relevance and political feasibility. Sustained engagement on the part of the Bank continues to be critical to effectively support reform processes over the medium and long term. The uninterrupted relationship between the Bank and the counterpart even at times when significant reform was not feasible laid grounds for an effective partnership when the opportunity was presented. Supporting a policy area that counts on the clear commitment from the government allows for increasingly complex reforms. In particular, the Government's focus on large taxpayers shows its commitment to shift from improving basic core processes to second generation reforms, and the program's successful support of these measures exhibits the Bank's adequacy as a development partner in the policy area.
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR2961 JUN 13, 2014
The development objective of the First Programmatic Resilience Building Development Policy Credit (DPC) Program Project for Grenada is to support the Government of Grenada (GoG) to implement a program of policy and institutional reforms to: (i) create conditions for private investment in a sustainable manner, (ii) support improved public sector management and better targeting of social safety net programs, (iii) enhance resilience against natural disasters, and (iv) facilitate debt portfolio restructuring and enhance debt management.
... Voir la suite As a small, open, and highly indebted middle-income island state, Grenada faces significant systemic vulnerabilities and structural challenges. At the request of the Grenadian authorities, this DPC series is, therefore, designed to strengthen the country's resilience against these vulnerabilities and support the government's objective of promoting sustained economic growth, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and advance the nation's social development agenda. The operation supports the GoG's plan for the new economy and is based on the comprehensive debt framework (CDF), designed to address debt sustainability in the Caribbean.
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Ratings for the Mobile Phone Banking Project for Maldives were as follows: outcomes were unsatisfactory, risk to development outcome was high, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was unsatisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: this project has also demonstrated the need for meaningful consultations with all stakeholders at all times. Simply relying on the power and influence of the government to force the participation of an unwilling participant did not work in this case. On the other hand, continuous and regular consultations at every step of the project, and listening carefully to the needs of the participants, could have been more effective in ensuring greater commitment and ownership from the stakeholders. Shifting course during project implementation, when a critical event that significantly impacts project completion is triggered, is an essential element of good project management. In this project it seems that the project team never attempted to change course during the six years of the project period. Often there are different paths that can be taken to achieve the same goal and this project might have had a more successful end if the project had been restructured when it was facing challenges. Another key lesson is the importance of defining the project development objective and to link it closely with a results framework (outcome and output indicators) that allows accurate measurement of progress towards achieving the project goal. Some project components were not adequately linked to the PDO or the performance indicators. As a result, it was difficult for the project team to accurately assess project achievements and ratings (even though these components were successfully implemented).
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR3034 JUN 10, 2014
The Board of Executive Directors discussed the FY12-15 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) on August 30, 2011. This report focuses on how the Bank has responded to changes in the country context since then, and how it will position itself strategically for the remaining period.
... Voir la suite It also provides initial details on the impact of the catastrophic flooding that occurred during the finalization of this report, and on the Bank's response. In mid-May 2014, a major natural disaster struck BH, as the heaviest rainfall in Serbia and BH in 120 years of recorded weather measurement caused devastating floods and landslides. From May 13, the country saw massive flooding and over 3000 landslides. Governments declared a state of emergency on May 14, 2014, and requested international assistance. The floods touched about one third of the country's territory, hitting hardest the northern and central flatlands, where the main agriculture industry is located. The human cost includes 25 confirmed deaths and one million people directly affected, with 40,000 evacuated and sheltered in 42 collective centers/temporary accommodation facilities. Preliminary evidence indicates the largest impact on infrastructure relating to housing, local infrastructure, transport, water and sanitation, and agriculture. The CPS strategic focus on competitiveness, social inclusion, and environmentally sustainable development remains valid for the rest of the CPS period, and is well aligned with the World Bank Group's twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. The Bank Group will continue to be selective and adjust the lending program to reflect the political will to tackle structural reforms.
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Document de stratégie d’aide-pays 87928 JUN 03, 2014
Ratings for the Third Rural Finance Project for Vietnam were as follows: outcomes were satisfactory, the risk to development outcome was low or negligible, the Bank performance was satisfactory, and the Borrower performance was also satisfactory.
... Voir la suite Some lessons learned included: micro-financial institutions may be small but they have the advantage of proximity to the clients and deep outreach. Such institutions invariably operate unsupervised and outside the framework of the banking regulation, and given the limited size of their equity and managerial capacity, face constraints to growth. An important action would be to put in place an enabling regulatory framework and supervision system, assess the viability of such institutions, explore the possibility of consolidating these into larger and stronger institutions which could have a wider operational jurisdiction and offer a wider range of financial services. Studies relating to strategy for penetration of rural markets and training for staff orientation to better understand the risks related to agricultural lending and approaching small and medium rural enterprises are an important mechanism to provide opportunities for private banks to explore provision of rural financial services. An ambitious technical assistance and capacity building program, such as the one implemented under the project, should be supplemented with continuous support and hand-holding from the Bank project team to be successful. An approach that links line of credit with compliance with accreditation criteria has huge potential to effect institutional change. The project not only reduced poverty through project sub-loans but also resulted in significant institutional improvement in the participating banks through continuous and rigorous monitoring of their performance against key performance standards and adjusting the size of their lines of credit in response to their operational performance.
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Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR2950 JUN 02, 2014
An audit study was conducted in peri-urban Mexico to understand the quality of information and products offered to low-income potential customers.
... Voir la suite Trained auditors visited multiple financial institutions seeking credit and savings products. Consistent with Gabaix and Laibson (2006), staff voluntarily provides little information about avoidable fees, especially to auditors trained to reveal little knowledge about the market. In addition, clients are almost never offered the cheapest product, most likely because staff is incentivized to offer more expensive products that are thus more profitable to the institution. This suggests that disclosure and transparency policies may be ineffective if they undermine the commercial interest of financial institutions.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6902 JUN 01, 2014
Gine, Xavier; Martinez Cuellar, Cristina; Mazer, Rafael Keenan
This paper presents evidence on the determinants of cross-border mergers and acquisitions in services sectors. It develops a stylized model of mergers and acquisitions that predicts that the incidence of merger and acquisition deals depends, inter alia, on the target economy's size, industrial structure and investment policies, as well as on bilateral transactions costs.
... Voir la suite These predictions are examined with bilateral merger and acquisition flow data and detailed information on policy barriers from a new database of restrictions on services investment. The analysis finds that: (1) geographical factors affect mergers and acquisitions in services and manufacturing similarly but cultural factors affect mergers and acquisitions in services more than in manufacturing. (2) Controlling for these bilateral factors, restrictive investment policies reduce the probability of merger and acquisition inflows but this negative effect is mitigated in countries with relatively large shares of manufacturing and (to a lesser extent) services in gross domestic product. The same results hold for the number of merger and acquisition deals received. These findings suggest that the impact of policy is state-dependent and related to the composition of gross domestic product in the target economy.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS6905 JUN 01, 2014