In the third quarter of 2014 (Q3), the Philippine economy expanded by 5.3 percent its slowest pace in 11 quarters. Growth slowed down due to the contraction of government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.
... Voir la suite The services sector the main engine of growth also slowed to its lowest level in 12 quarters. For Q3 2014 and for the first 3 quarters of 2014, Philippine growth is about average when compared to the major economies in the East Asia region. Capital outflows resulted in a full-year balance of payments deficit of about USD 3.4 billion, the first in a decade. However, the current account remains in strong surplus, supported by robust remittances, while international reserves continue to be at comfortable levels at more than 10 months of imports. Inflation started to moderate, with positive impact on both households and businesses while government spending contracted significantly in Q3 and constituted a further drag on growth. Sustaining government spending in the near-term will require significant improvements in budget planning and execution as the current 28-year old system, already at capacity, is hard pressed to support higher spending. Going forward, the Philippines needs to accelerate reforms that can translate higher growth into more inclusive growth the type that creates more and better jobs so that poverty can be reduced massively and prosperity shared by more people. Overall, the country has an investment gap (both physical and human capital) of around 6.8 percent of GDP as of 2014. The document outlines this investment gap.
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This report contains the World Bank Group Boards calendar for the period of January 2015 to March 2015, specifying the Boards engagements, such as meetings, briefings, and other Bank happenings.
... Voir la suite It is updated as of January 15, 2015.
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Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies.
... Voir la suite Weak global trade growth and lower commodity prices are projected to persist while financial conditions will likely tighten gradually. Risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside. The stability of remittances may help some of the lowest-income countries weather shocks. In some developing economies, monetary policy challenges may be attenuated if falling commodity prices reduce inflationary pressures. Fiscal stimulus could effectively support growth if there is sufficient fiscal space. Some developing countries, however, have to rebuild fiscal space to preserve their ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, which has served them well over the decade. Both high-income and developing countries need to undertake structural reforms that promote growth and job creation and help achieve poverty reduction goals. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a twice yearly basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through extensive research in the January edition and shorter pieces in the June edition.
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This paper focuses on developments in the European Economic and Monetary Union sovereign debt markets in the past decade. The ?rst part analyzes the integration and segmentation structure of the bond markets of the Economic and Monetary Union before and after the sovereign debt crisis, by introducing the novel concept of correlation-based stable networks.
... Voir la suite Accordingly, a fair integration is observed between the bond markets during the pre-crisis period. However, a strict segmentation emerges, separating the members struggling with debt problems and the ones with relatively strong ?scal performances during the sovereign debt turmoil. The segmentation structure is clearly visualized, revealing the potential paths for crisis and recovery transmission in the future. In the second part, the paper comments on the recent decreasing trend in Economic and Monetary Union member bond yields and their increasing degree of co-movement. Accordingly, the paper argues that these changes do not depend on the ?scal performances of the member countries, but depend on the illusion of quality that appeared with the Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) tapering signals in early 2013.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7149 JAN 01, 2015
This paper analyzes Zambian export patterns using a new transaction-level trade data set for the period 1999-2011. The data show that, in international comparison, Zambian exports are exceptionally concentrated (on mining products).
... Voir la suite This reliance has been increasing in recent years. Zambia's exports are also characterized by a high level of churning of firms and products. Multivariate models of survival probabilities suggest that exchange rate volatility and difficult access to imported inputs significantly inhibit diversified and stable exports. The econometric analysis is complemented with a qualitative study of the Zambian export sector. The analysis concludes that one of the main policy levers for unleashing Zambia's full potential as an exporter is by facilitating access to imported inputs. Additional measures that ease foreign exchange transactions, simplify export and certification requirements, and increase the predictability of Zambia's trade regime could be effective to promote Zambia's nontraditional exports.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7151 JAN 01, 2015
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical.
... Voir la suite An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of gross domestic product, but also because of a structural change in the trade-gross domestic product relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and gross domestic product.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7158 JAN 01, 2015
In recent years, many emerging market countries have developed or are in the process of developing SME Exchanges to provide financing to SMEs, but few have succeeded.
... Voir la suite This paper aims to help stock exchanges and policy makers think through the key questions to be addressed to determine if, when, how and for whom to develop an SME Exchange in emerging market countries. It takes stock of some of the actions that exchanges can take to reduce issuance costs, in time and money for SMEs, without compromising the prudential needs of investors. The paper draws on the experience of seven SME Exchanges and the World Federation of Exchanges that participated in a workshop organized and led by the WBG to discuss these and other questions. It does not recommend a specific model to follow and does not address specific context issues, however the analysis suggests approaches that are widespread and/or could be beneficial to consider such as (1) focus on SMEs with a sizeable growth rate, (2) have the SME exchange legally related to the main board, (3) do not reduce disclosure content to reduce costs, (4) allow private placements, (5) have well regulated advisors to vet issuers and provide comfort to investors about the quality of the issue, (6) have outreach, public awareness campaign and training for SMEs, (7) consider tax incentives for investors. The report is the first in a series on this topic, and subsequent reports will address and expand on related and broader issues.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7160 JAN 01, 2015
This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model.
... Voir la suite The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the model may have shifted over time to contribute to the generation of historically observed changes in the economic arrangement. In this approach, the parameters in a computable general equilibrium model are treated as fixed but unobserved, represented as prior mean values with prior error mass functions. Estimation of the parameters involves using an information-theoretic Bayesian approach to exploit additional information in the form of new data from a series of social accounting matrices, which are assumed were measured with error. The estimation procedure is "efficient" in the sense that it uses all available information and makes no assumptions about unavailable information. As illustration, the methodology is applied to estimate the parameters of a computable general equilibrium model using alternative data sets for the Republic of Korea and Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7174 JAN 01, 2015
Although there is fast-growing policy interest in offering financial products to help rural households manage risk, the literature is still scant as to which products are the most effective.
... Voir la suite This paper uses a randomized field experiment in Senegal and Burkina Faso to compare male and female farmers who are offered index-based agricultural insurance with those who are offered a variety of savings instruments. The paper finds that female farm managers were less likely to purchase agricultural insurance and more likely to invest in savings for emergencies, even controlling for access to informal insurance and differences in crop choice. It is hypothesized that this finding results from the fact that, although men and women are equally exposed to yield risk, women face additional sources of lifecycle risk -- particularly health risks associated with fertility and childcare -- that men do not. In essence, the basis risk associated with agricultural insurance products is higher for women. Purchasing insurance increased input spending and use more than savings. Those who purchased more insurance realized higher average yields and were better able to manage food insecurity and shocks. This finding suggests that gender differences in demand for financial products can have an impact on productivity, resilience, and welfare.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7176 JAN 01, 2015
Delavallade, Clara; Dizon, Felipe; Hill, Ruth Vargas; Petraud, Jean Paul
This paper investigates the link between competitive, well-functioning food markets and consumer welfare. The paper explores two key food markets in Kenya -- sugar and maize -- and argues that a variety of factors conspire to distort market prices upward.
... Voir la suite Distortionary factors include import tariff policy, nontariff barriers, potential anticompetitive conduct by firms, and direct state intervention in markets. Changes in sugar and maize prices are shown to have significant welfare effects on consumers. Equivalent income effects are estimated using the most recent available representative household survey data -- the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2005/06. The paper shows that relaxing trade barriers to allow sugar prices to fall by 20 percent could reduce poverty by 1.5 percent. Similarly, adjusting government interventions in the maize market, which have been shown to inflate maize prices by 20 percent on average, could reduce poverty by 1.8 percent. The magnitude of the estimated income effects may vary based on updated household-level consumption data, assumptions regarding demand elasticities, and estimates of import parity prices for these staples. However, in all the scenarios, more competitive prices have a larger average effect on the poorest households in urban and rural areas, supporting the relevance of effective competition policies for poverty reduction strategies.
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7179 JAN 01, 2015
The South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) came into effect in 2006, but free and unfettered trade is still a work in progress. Drawing from theory and evidence, this note looks at how all countries, especially the smaller ones, can gain from mutual trade liberalization.
... Voir la suite Consumers, exporters, and producers, the three key players in this debate, all stand to gain from multilateral trade. Consumers enjoy lower prices, more product variety, and better quality goods. Exporters obtain access to much larger markets and sourcing opportunities for key inputs. Producers are incentivized to become more efficient, increase their sizes and scales via access to a bigger market, gain cheaper and higher quality inputs, and receive more foreign direct investment (FDI). As an example of how smaller South Asian nations can reap significant benefits, the US-Mexican asymmetry case study is presented, demonstrating how Mexico rose to become the world's thirteenth largest economy after joining NAFTA. Given that the South Asia region is in the process of making SAFTA effective, nations that hold out from the process could suffer by being "innocent bystanders," which is a welfare loss faced by a country that does not fully participate in a regional agreement being created around it.
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The objective of the Social Protection (SP) System Operation Project for Rwanda is to support the Government of Rwanda to improve the efficiency, accountability, and coverage of its social protection system.
... Voir la suite This programmatic work will help the Government of Rwanda stay on course for reaching its ambitious poverty reduction goals, while addressing a set of second-generation reforms critical to strengthening Rwanda's SP system. This operational series will focus on three main areas: improving the efficiency of Rwanda's SP system, strengthening accountability and transparency, and expanding appropriate coverage. The Government of Rwanda has established SP as a priority in its ambitious goal to accelerate poverty reduction to less than 30 percent of the population and to reduce extreme poverty to 9 percent by 2018. Rwanda is among global leaders in building an integrated SP system in a low-income environment that is closely tied to national goals of poverty reduction. This development policy operation (DPO) series is fully supportive of the end-line goals for Rwandas national SP strategy (2013-18) and second economic development and poverty reduction strategy (EDPRS-2) (2013-18) as well as with Rwanda's goals of strengthening the prospects of its vulnerable population for graduation from poverty and social assistance.
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Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and Caribbean.
... Voir la suiteRéduire
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia.
... Voir la suiteRéduire