This paper empirically studies the dynamics of labor market adjustment following the Brazilian trade reform of the 1990s. The paper uses variation in industry-specific tariff cuts interacted with initial regional industry mix to measure trade-induced local labor demand shocks and examines regional and individual labor market responses to those one-time shocks over two decades.
... Voir la suite Contrary to conventional wisdom, the analysis does not find that the impact of local shocks is dissipated over time through wage-equalizing migration. Instead, it finds steadily growing effects of local shocks on regional formal sector wages and employment for 20 years. This finding can be rationalized in a simple equilibrium model with two complementary factors of production, labor and industry-specific factors such as capital, that adjust slowly and imperfectly to shocks. Next, the paper documents rich margins of adjustment induced by the trade reform at the regional and individual levels. Workers initially employed in harder hit regions face continuously deteriorating formal labor market outcomes relative to workers employed in less affected regions, and this gap persists even 20 years after the beginning of trade liberalization. Negative local trade shocks induce workers to shift out of the formal tradable sector and into the formal nontradable sector. Non-employment strongly increases in harder hit regions in the medium run, but in the longer run, non-employed workers eventually find re-employment in the informal sector. Working age population does not react to these local shocks, but formal sector net migration does, consistent with the relative decline of the formal sector and growth of the informal sector in adversely affected regions.
Réduire
Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7205 MAR 02, 2015
This paper addresses the role of market remoteness in explaining maize price volatility in Burkina Faso. A model of price formation is introduced to demonstrate formally that transport costs between urban and rural markets exacerbate maize price volatility.
... Voir la suite Empirical support is provided to the proposition by exploring an unusually rich data set of monthly maize price series across 28 markets over 2004-13. The methodology relies on an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to investigate the statistical effect of road quality and distance from urban consumption centers on maize price volatility. The analysis finds that maize price volatility is greatest in remote markets. The results also show that maize-surplus markets and markets bordering Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo have experienced more volatile prices than maize-deficit and non-bordering markets. The findings suggest that enhancing road infrastructure would strengthen the links between rural markets and major consumption centers, thereby also stabilizing maize prices.
Réduire
Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7202 FEB 25, 2015
This is the Executive Directors Strategic Engagements Work Program and papers to be circulated from March 2015. Included in the report are checklists of action items.
... Voir la suite The lists are separated by FY15 QIII, FY15 QIV and FY16 Q1.
Réduire
The revised project development objective for the Housing Finance Project of Tanzania is to facilitate the development of the housing finance market through the provision of medium and long-term liquidity to lenders.
... Voir la suite The additional financing of US$60 million equivalent will be allocated across the three existing components, and will also cover Project Management costs. Component 1 will include US$40 million to be extended to TMRC so that it can continue to provide a reliable source of longer-term funds to mortgage lenders. A key aspect of this component will be continued assistance in securing a long term funding source for TMRC, including bond issuance or alternative financing, building on the ongoing technical assistance program. The project will support a gradual move from IDA funded financing to full market priced bond financing, by blending the two sources of funding. In order to encourage TMRC to become financially sustainable by project closing, a disbursement mechanism will be introduced whereby TMRC would have access to US$10 million to be allocated on a 1:1 basis following bond issuance. Component one will also support technical assistance activities in the amount of US$800,000 consistent with the component's objective of contributing to the development of the mortgage market, including (i) hiring a resident accountant for TMRC bond issuance; (ii) review options for moving mortgages down-market; and (iii) housing finance education (which would continue to support consumer financial literacy and dissemination activities throughout the AF period). Component two will include US$15 million to scale up the HMFF pilot as well as the following technical assistance activities amounting to US$500,000: (i) Training and capacity building on HMF; (ii) Supply of IT Equipment for the HMFF. Component 3 will consist entirely of technical assistance activities amounting to US$2.3 million including: (i) feasibility study for establishing options for enhancing operational efficiency and effectiveness of real estate professions in Tanzania; (ii) guidelines and standards for low income housing; (iii) setting up a Housing Information Center; (iv) ICT resources requirements for Watumishi Company Limited Design Team; and (v) Strengthening the National Housing and Building Research Agency.
Réduire
This paper describes how Latin America and the Caribbean has been integrating financially with countries in the North and South since the 2000s.
... Voir la suite The paper shows that the region is increasingly more connected with the rest of the world, even relative to gross domestic product. The region's connections with South countries have been growing faster than with North countries, especially during the second half of the 2000s. Nevertheless, North countries continue to be the region's principal source and receiver of flows. The changes reflect significant increases in portfolio investments, syndicated loans, and mergers and acquisitions. Growth of greenfield investments has been more subdued after the initial high level. Greenfield investments in the region have been in sectors in which the source country has a comparative advantage, not where the receiver country has an advantage. Mergers and acquisitions have been in sectors in which the receiver country has a comparative advantage.
Réduire
Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7190 FEB 01, 2015
Didier, Tatiana; Moretti, Matias; Schmukler, Sergio L.
This paper uses the 2010/11 Income and Expenditure Survey for South Africa to analyze the progressivity of the main tax and social spending programs and quantify their impact on poverty and inequality.
... Voir la suite The paper also assesses the redistributive effectiveness of fiscal interventions given the resources used. Because it applies the Commitment to Equity methodology, the results for South Africa can be compared with other middle-income countries for which the framework has also been applied. The main results are twofold. First, the burden of taxes -- namely the personal income tax, the value added tax, excises on alcohol and tobacco, and the fuel levy -- falls on the richest in South Africa and social spending results in sizable increases in the incomes of the poor. In other words, for the components examined, the tax and social spending system is overall progressive. Second, for these elements, fiscal policy in South Africa achieves appreciable reductions in income inequality and poverty. Moreover, these reductions are the largest achieved in the emerging market countries that have so far been included in the Commitment to Equity project. Although fiscal policy is equalizing and poverty-reducing, the levels of inequality and poverty that remain still rank among the highest in middle-income countries. Looking ahead, as South Africa grapples with slow economic growth, a high fiscal deficit, and a rising debt burden, addressing the twin challenges of high inequality and poverty will require not only much improved quality of public services, but also higher and more inclusive economic growth.
Réduire
Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques WPS7194 FEB 01, 2015
Inchauste, Gabriela; Lustig, Nora; Maboshe, Mashekwa; Purfield, Catriona; Woolard, Ingrid
This Executive Directors' strategic engagements work program covers FY15 Q3, FY15 Q4, FY16 Q1, and also updated reports and other documents to be circulated for information.
... Voir la suiteRéduire
The Financial Sector Development Policy Credit Project for Uganda received a moderately unsatisfactory outcome rating with substantial risk to development.
... Voir la suite The Banks performance was deemed to be moderately satisfactory while the Borrowers performance was rated moderately unsatisfactory. There were no significant changes made to this project including restructuring and component revisions. There were four main lesson learned from this project and they are as follows: (1) Strong analytical foundations are essential for a successful operation: While the Government had taken some initial bold steps to initiate the process of financial sector reform, the Bank had supported these reforms through high quality analytical work, coupled with technical; assistance and capacity building. (2) Ownership and commitment are critical to success: The operation was fully client driven, building on the Financial Market Development Plan (2008-12), which was being implemented and supported by various donors, including the Bank. The creation of URBRA, the presentation of a Bill to Parliament to gradually remove the monopoly of NSSF in the provision of pension services, the elaboration of a reform proposal for the PSPF, were all important steps in the process of financial sector reform. Building a political constituency of support is key to the pace of progress of reforms: One of the key reasons for delays in meeting the triggers for the second phase of the DPC was the difficulty in ensuring passage of legislation through Parliament. (4) An overly ambitious agenda may be difficult to sustain: Another aspect of the difficulty in meeting the triggers for the second phase operation was the overly ambitious nature of the initial reform agenda, which called for actions simultaneously on a large number of fronts. A narrower focus might have made the project more manageable.
Réduire
Bilan de fin d’exécution et de résultats ICR3139 JAN 30, 2015
The objective of the First Competitiveness and Fiscal Management Programmatic Development Policy Loan for Jamaica supports policies aimed at (i) improving investment climate and competitiveness and (ii) sustaining fiscal consolidation and enhancing public financial management.
... Voir la suite This project is an attempt by the Government of Jamaica to restore macroeconomic stability and pave the way for higher and inclusive growth. This development policy loan supports reforms aimed at removing impediments to competitiveness, economic growth, and debt sustainability. The first of the two pillars, mentioned as policies above, supports specific elements of the governments agenda that would improve competitiveness and facilitate growth. These include addressing the development approvals process, the high cost of electricity, supporting the Logistics Hub Initiative identified by the Government as a key growth initiative and the associated trade facilitation measures that would ensure its success. The second pillar supports structural reforms for fiscal consolidation, increased transparency and efficiency of expenditures, and improved public investment management. The Government has made significant progress in these areas of reform since early 2013. Going forward, there is a need to preserve the gains from reforms so far, and begin work on additional reforms that would increase efficiency in the use of public monies.
Réduire
In the third quarter of 2014 (Q3), the Philippine economy expanded by 5.3 percent its slowest pace in 11 quarters. Growth slowed down due to the contraction of government spending on the demand side and agricultural production on the supply side.
... Voir la suite The services sector the main engine of growth also slowed to its lowest level in 12 quarters. For Q3 2014 and for the first 3 quarters of 2014, Philippine growth is about average when compared to the major economies in the East Asia region. Capital outflows resulted in a full-year balance of payments deficit of about USD 3.4 billion, the first in a decade. However, the current account remains in strong surplus, supported by robust remittances, while international reserves continue to be at comfortable levels at more than 10 months of imports. Inflation started to moderate, with positive impact on both households and businesses while government spending contracted significantly in Q3 and constituted a further drag on growth. Sustaining government spending in the near-term will require significant improvements in budget planning and execution as the current 28-year old system, already at capacity, is hard pressed to support higher spending. Going forward, the Philippines needs to accelerate reforms that can translate higher growth into more inclusive growth the type that creates more and better jobs so that poverty can be reduced massively and prosperity shared by more people. Overall, the country has an investment gap (both physical and human capital) of around 6.8 percent of GDP as of 2014. The document outlines this investment gap.
Réduire
This report contains the World Bank Group Boards calendar for the period of January 2015 to March 2015, specifying the Boards engagements, such as meetings, briefings, and other Bank happenings.
... Voir la suite It is updated as of January 15, 2015.
Réduire
Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies.
... Voir la suite Weak global trade growth and lower commodity prices are projected to persist while financial conditions will likely tighten gradually. Risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside. The stability of remittances may help some of the lowest-income countries weather shocks. In some developing economies, monetary policy challenges may be attenuated if falling commodity prices reduce inflationary pressures. Fiscal stimulus could effectively support growth if there is sufficient fiscal space. Some developing countries, however, have to rebuild fiscal space to preserve their ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, which has served them well over the decade. Both high-income and developing countries need to undertake structural reforms that promote growth and job creation and help achieve poverty reduction goals. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a twice yearly basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through extensive research in the January edition and shorter pieces in the June edition.
Réduire