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Trading Places : Fundamentals, Speculation, and Information in US Corn Markets (anglais)

What explains the surge and plunge commodity markets have undergone in the past 20 years? Are speculators to be blamed? Do prices reflect full information? These are the main questions addressed in this paper, in the context of the corn market. This paper formulates and calibrates two quantitative models of corn prices formation. The first model is designed to explain prices in the long run (annual frequency), while the second model applies to prices...
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