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Social impacts of climate change in Bolivia : a municipal level analysis of the effects of recent climate change on life expectancy, consumption, poverty and inequality (anglais)

This paper analyzes the direct evidence of climate change in Bolivia during the past 60 years, and estimates how these changes have affected life expectancy and consumption levels for each of the 311 municipalities in Bolivia. Contrary to the predictions of most general circulation models, the evidence shows a consistent cooling trend of about 0.2°C per decade over all highland areas, slight and scattered evidence of warming in the lowlands, and no systematic changes in precipitation. The estimations indicate that the 1°C cooling experienced in the already cold highlands over the past five decades likely has reduced consumption possibilities by about 2-3 percent in these areas. Since the much richer population in the lowlands have benefitted slightly from recent climate change, the simulations suggest that recent climate change has contributed to an increase in inequality and poverty in Bolivia. Poor and indigenous peoples in the highlands are among the most severely affected populations. No statistically significant effect on life expectancy was found.

Information

  • Auteur

    Andersen, Lykke E., Verner,Dorte

  • Date du document

    2009/10/01

  • Type de document

    Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques

  • Numéro du rapport

    WPS5092

  • Volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Pays

    Bolivie,

  • Région

    Amérique latine et Caraïbes,

  • Date de publication

    2010/07/01

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Titre du rapport

    Social impacts of climate change in Bolivia : a municipal level analysis of the effects of recent climate change on life expectancy, consumption, poverty and inequality

  • Mots clé

    consumption level;life expectancy;Poverty & Inequality;life expectancy at birth;effect of climate change;vulnerability to climate change;impact of climate change;per capita consumption level;future climate change;Municipalities;average annual temperature;climate change scenario;reduction in consumption;consumption per capita;increase in temperature;effect on consumption;average annual precipitation;effect of temperature;terms of consumption;diurnal temperature range;working age population;change in temperature;variability in temperature;increase in inequality;geophysical research;level of consumption;average daily temperature;environment and development;average household consumption;per capita income;change in precipitation;change in consumption;average temperature;meteorological stations;monthly temperature;education level;cloud cover;climate variable;temperature anomaly;indigenous population;precipitation anomalies;explanatory variable;highland areas;winter temperature;social impact;weather station;summer temperature;level analysis;temperature variation;climate variability;consumption possibilities;negative effect;physical science;temperature change;global temperature;solar irradiation;market condition;local climate;annual consumption;principal interest;average precipitation;simulation exercise;scientific consensus;adequate precipitation;temperature reduction;climate model;historical context;agricultural productivity;econometric model;national territory;freezing point;severe consequence;oecd countries;empirical study;confidence interval;tropical climate;regional changes;spatial dimension;high precipitation;climate impact;extreme drought;empirical analysis;cross-section data;monthly data;andean glacier;rapid melting;negative relationship;sea level;piped water;raw data;data station;present analysis;human settlement;geographical distribution;seasonal variation;remote area;road access;temperature trend;cold regions;hot regions;urbanization level;estimate impact;positive relationship;Indigenous Peoples;municipality level;education attainment;dry season;spatial variation;inherent characteristics;temperature data;climatic condition;affected population;long-term effect;indigenous area;circulation model;glacial melt;monthly observation;relative humidity;consumption regression;consumption model;emission abatement;consumption relationship;cold climate;temperature variables;regression results;summer months;blue color;population size;natural logarithm;cold winter;

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