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Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View (anglais)

The paper uses Google mobility data to identify the determinants of social distancing during the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. The findings for the United States indicate that much of the decrease in mobility is voluntary, driven by the number of COVID-19 cases and proxying for greater awareness of risk. Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closing nonessential businesses, sheltering in place, and school closings are also effective, although with a total contribution dwarfed by the voluntary actions. This suggests that much social distancing will happen regardless of the presence of non-pharmaceutical interventions and that restrictions may often function more like a coordinating device among increasingly predisposed individuals than repressive measures per se. These results are consistent across country income groups, with only the poorest countries showing limited effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions and no voluntary component, consistent with resistance to abandon sources of livelihood. The paper also confirms the direct impact of the voluntary component on economic activity, by showing that the majority of the fall in restaurant reservations in the United States and movie spending in Sweden occurred before the imposition of any non-pharmaceutical interventions. Widespread voluntary de-mobilization implies that releasing constraints may not yield a V-shaped recovery if the reduction in COVID risk is not credible.

Information

  • Auteur

    Maloney,William F., Taskin,Temel

  • Date du document

    2020/05/12

  • Type de document

    Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques

  • Numéro du rapport

    WPS9242

  • Volume

    1

  • Total Volume(s)

    1

  • Pays

    Monde,

  • Région

    Région,

  • Date de publication

    2020/05/12

  • Disclosure Status

    Disclosed

  • Titre du rapport

    Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during COVID-19 : A Global View

  • Mots clé

    fixed effect; million people; Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions; social distance; school child; public information campaign; Shelter in Place; spanish flu epidemic; length of stay; high death rate; interactions among people; per capita term; degrees of freedom; cambridge university press; country income group; human capital accumulation; residential mobility; public events; Public Transport; smart phone; repressive measure; mobility index; point estimate; low mobility; school closure; aids epidemic; income category; global view; internal movement; Public Transportation; social responsibility; advanced country; government response; pharmaceutical intervention; effective governance; daily average; drastic measures; social capital; press coverage; aids prevalence; risky behavior; regional data; health outcome; oecd countries; economic crisis; open access; development policy; representative sample; Research Support; downward bias; indicator variable; transit station; explanatory variable; resource center; Economic Mobility; micro firms; voluntary action; children's home; state policy; social care; government capacity; gross revenue; Social Mobility; death toll; political choice; Learning and Innovation Credit; individual response; affluent countries; internal mobility; protective measure; percent change; anecdotal evidence; political belief; government capability; behavioral response; mitigation measure; washing hand; net impact; mobile market

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