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Optimal hedging under price and quantity uncertainty : the case of a cocoa producer (anglais)

A mathematical model illustrating the optimal hedging strategy of a producing country subject to price and production variability is proposed. Cocoa is used as a case study. The analysis is applied to Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Brazil, four countries that account for close to 80 percent of world cocoa production. The traditional definition of hedging recommends a hedge ratio of one, but the ratio of optimal hedge to expected output should be...
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