The authors consider two alternative methods of forecasting real per capita GDP at various horizons: 1) univariate time series models estimated country by country; and 2) cross-country growth regressions. They evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of both approaches for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. They find only modest differences between the two approaches. In almost all cases, differences in median (across...
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INFORMATION
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1999/11/30
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Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques
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WPS2224
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1
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1
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2010/07/01
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Growth forecasts using time series and growth models
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median cumulative forecast error
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