Global economic development has long been propelled by the mass production and consumption of raw materials—for food, energy, shelter, and all the comforts of modern civilization. Even as the human population...
Food price inflation has increased persistently in recent years in Turkey with a widening divergence from international food price inflation. The study analyzes the main inefficiencies in the Turkish agricultural...
The prices of 27 internationally traded commodities are decomposed into transitory and permanent shocks by applying an ideal band-pass filter to monthly data from 1970–2020. The two types of shocks contributed...
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major...
Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged...
The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices...
The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented...
This paper presents estimates of time-varying income elasticities of demand for energy and metal commodities. The analysis finds that the elasticities are close to unity, evaluated at world median per...
Incoming data confirms that global growth lost momentum in 2018, driven by a noticeable deceleration in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The loss of momentum...
Incoming data confirms that global growth lost momentum in 2018, driven by a noticeable deceleration in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The loss of momentum...
The global economy has continued to decelerate, growing by an estimated 2.3 percent in 18Q3 (q/q saar), down substantially from 3.3 percent in the previous quarter. This was driven by the slowdown in the...
The global economy has continued to decelerate, growing by an estimated 2.3 percent in 18Q3 (q/q saar), down substantially from 3.3 percent in the previous quarter. This was driven by the slowdown in the...
In the second half of 2018, despite robust activity in the United States, there was a slowdown in global growth, which reached an almost three-year low of 2.4 percent (q/q saar) in 18Q3. The subdued momentum...
In the second half of 2018, despite robust activity in the United States, there was a slowdown in global growth, which reached an almost three-year low of 2.4 percent (q/q saar) in 18Q3. The subdued momentum...
Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption...
Published semiannually, Global Economic Prospects includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries. Global activity is firming broadly as expected. Manufacturing and trade are...
With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution...
Commodity prices strengthened in the first quarter of 2018. Broad-based price increases were supported by both demand and supply factors. Accelerating global growth lifted demand for commodities, while...
This newsletter includes the following headings: monthly highlights; special focus; key prospects group publications; recent World Bank working papers; and recent World Bank reports.
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) global economic prospects monthly working paper are as follows: overview; chart of the month; Special focus...