Documents et rapports

Fiscal Policy Procyclicality and Volatility in Commodity-Exporting Emerging and Developing Economies : Determinants and Implications for Growth (anglais)

Over the past few decades, fiscal policy has been about 30 percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatile in commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) than in other...

Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2024 (anglais)

Commodity prices are expected to decrease by 5 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. The projected declines are led by oil prices but tempered by price increases for natural gas and a stable outlook for...

Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024 (anglais)

The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some...

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices : Literature Review and a Model Suite (anglais)

Almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies rely heavily on resource sectors for economic activity, fiscal and export revenues. In these economies, economic planning requires sound baseline...

Morocco Economic Monitor : From Resilience to Shared Prosperity (anglais)

The Moroccan economy is recovering. Following a sharp deceleration in 2022 caused by various overlapping commodity and climatic shocks, economic growth increased to 2.9 percent in the first semester of...

Morocco Economic Monitor : From Resilience to Shared Prosperity (Executive Summary) (anglais)

The Moroccan economy is recovering. Following a sharp deceleration in 2022 caused by various overlapping commodity and climatic shocks, economic growth increased to 2.9 percent in the first semester of...

المرصد الاقتصادي للمغرب: من القدرة على الصمود إلى الرخاء المشترك (arabe)

The Moroccan economy is recovering. Following a sharp deceleration in 2022 caused by various overlapping commodity and climatic shocks, economic growth increased to 2.9 percent in the first semester of...

Maroc Rapport de Suivi de la Situation Economique : De la Résilience à la Prospérité Partagée (français)

The Moroccan economy is recovering. Following a sharp deceleration in 2022 caused by various overlapping commodity and climatic shocks, economic growth increased to 2.9 percent in the first semester of...

Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023 : Under the Shadow of Geopolitical Risks (anglais)

The conflict in the Middle East - the latest of an extraordinary series of shocks in recent years—has heightened geopolitical risks for commodity markets, in an already uncertain global environment. Before...

Malawi - De-risking Import of Strategic Commodities Project (anglais)

Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries : How Much Does It Pour and Why ? (anglais)

A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets and developing economies and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality...

Commodity Price Cycles : Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers (anglais)

This paper studies commodity price cycles and their underlying drivers using a dynamic factor model. The study employs a sample of 39 monthly commodity prices over 1970:01 to 2019:12. The analysis identifies...

Commodity Markets : Evolution, Challenges, and Policies (anglais)

Global economic development has long been propelled by the mass production and consumption of raw materials—for food, energy, shelter, and all the comforts of modern civilization. Even as the human population...

Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important Are Oil Prices ? (anglais)

This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970–2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several...

Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 : Pandemic, War, Recession - Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices (anglais)

A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. Some energy prices remain elevated, however, amid geopolitical tensions and persistent...

Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022 : The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets - Special Focus (anglais)

The war in Ukraine has caused major supply disruptions and led to historically higher prices for a number of commodities. Most commodity prices are now expected to see sharp increases in 2022 and remain...

DECPG global monthly newsletter (anglais)

This newsletter includes the following headings: monthly highlights; special focus; recent publications of prospects group; recent World Bank working papers; recent World Bank reports; table A: major data...

Cigarette affordability in China : 2001-2016 (chinois)

This study investigates the affordability of cigarettes in China between 2001 and 2016. In the past two decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth rates. The country's per capita GDP has...

Zambia economic brief : beating the slowdown - making every kwacha count (anglais)

The external environment confronting Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to remain difficult in the near term. Commodity prices are expected to remain low, and in 2016, growth in the region isforecast...

The impact of China on Europe and Central Asia : Влияние Китая на Европу и Центральную Азию (russe)

The economies of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are facing complex challenges. In the eastern part of the region the task of governments is to orchestrate a coordinated crisis response. The collapse of...