Documents et rapports
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What Explains Global Inflation (anglais)
This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10648 Date du document: 18 décembre 2023 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Ha,Jongrim,Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
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Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices : Literature Review and a Model Suite (anglais)
Almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies rely heavily on resource sectors for economic activity, fiscal and export revenues. In these economies, economic planning requires sound baseline...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10611 Date du document: 21 novembre 2023 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Arroyo Marioli,Francisco,Khadan,Jeetendra,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Yamazaki,Takefumi
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Potential Growth : A Global Database (anglais)
Potential growth—the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment—is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10354 Date du document: 10 mars 2023 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kilic Celik,Sinem,Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Ruch,Franz Ulrich
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Trade as an Engine of Growth : Sputtering but Fixable (anglais)
International trade has been an important engine of output and productivity growth historically. But since the global financial crisis, world trade growth has slowed, reflecting cyclical and structural...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10356 Date du document: 10 mars 2023 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Quaglietti,Lucia
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Potential Growth Prospects : Risks, Rewards, and Policies (anglais)
Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10355 Date du document: 10 mars 2023 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kilic Celik,Sinem,Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
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Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation : How Important Are Oil Prices ? (anglais)
This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970–2022. The paper estimates a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model for each country and assess the importance of several...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10283 Date du document: 24 janvier 2023 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Ha,Jongrim,Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Yilmazkuday,Hakan
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From Financial Development to Informality : A Causal Link (anglais)
Financial development reduces the cost of accessing external financing and thus incentivizes investment in higher-productivity projects that allow firms to expand to the scale needed to operate in the...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10192 Date du document: 27 septembre 2022 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Capasso,Salvatore,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Shu Yu
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The Long Shadow of Informality : Challenges and Policies (anglais)
A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies...
Type de document: Rapport Numéro du rapport: 160311 Date du document: 1 janvier 2022 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Yu,Shu
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What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt ? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (anglais)
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9871 Date du document: 30 novembre 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka
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A Mountain of Debt : Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (anglais)
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9800 Date du document: 8 octobre 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka
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The Aftermath of Debt Surges (anglais)
Debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is at its highest level in half a century. In about nine out of 10 EMDEs, debt is higher now than it was in 2010 and, in half of the EMDEs, debt...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9771 Date du document: 10 septembre 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Reinhart,Carmen M.,Rogoff,Kenneth S.
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One-Stop Source : A Global Database of Inflation (anglais)
This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation;...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9737 Date du document: 27 juillet 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Ha,Jongrim,Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
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Global Waves of Debt : Causes and Consequences (anglais)
Waves of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past 50 years. In emerging market and developing economies, there have been four major debt waves since 1970. The...
Type de document: Publication Numéro du rapport: 157143 Date du document: 1 janvier 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka
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Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets (anglais)
The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oil prices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by far the most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970. This paper, first, compares this most recent...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9403 Date du document: 21 septembre 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kabundi,Alain Ntumba,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
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Adding Fuel to the Fire : Cheap Oil during the COVID-19 Pandemic (anglais)
The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9320 Date du document: 13 juillet 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Wheeler,Collette Mari,Baffes,John,Kabundi,Alain Ntumba,Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
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Can This Time Be Different ? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (anglais)
Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9178 Date du document: 10 mars 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka
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Subdued Potential Growth : Sources and Remedies (anglais)
Global potential output growth has been flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9177 Date du document: 10 mars 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kilic Celik,Sinem,Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
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Benefits and Costs of Debt : The Dose Makes the Poison (anglais)
Government debt has risen substantially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis. The current environment of low global interest rates and weak growth may appear...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9166 Date du document: 27 février 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka
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Emerging and Developing Economies : Ten Years After the Global Recession (anglais)
Although emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) weathered the global recession a decade ago relatively well, they now appear less well placed to cope with the substantial downside risks facing...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9148 Date du document: 13 février 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
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Debt and Financial Crises (anglais)
Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9116 Date du document: 22 janvier 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Koh,Wee Chian,Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka