Documents et rapports
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Are Regional Fiscal Multipliers on EU Structural and Investment Fund Spending Large ? A Reassessment of the Evidence (anglais)
The European Commission’s “NextGenerationEU” COVID-19 recovery package has underscored interest in the size of regional fiscal multipliers in Europe. While the objective of these funds is the long-term...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10658 Date du document: 9 janvier 2024 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Fiuratti,Federico Ivan,Nikolova,Desislava Enikova,Pennings,Steven Michael,Schiffbauer,Marc Tobias
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers : Evidence from Brazil (anglais)
This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil’s Bolsa Familia transfer...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS10652 Date du document: 19 décembre 2023 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Galego Mendes,Arthur,Miyamoto,Wataru,Nguyen,Thuy Lan,Pennings,Steven Michael,Feler,Leo
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Bulgaria Country Economic Memorandum : A Path to High Income (anglais)
Bulgaria has followed sound macroeconomic policy in recent years and has weathered the Covid-19 economic crisis relatively well. The country embarked on a thorough transformation to a functioning market...
Type de document: Mémorandum économique sur un pays Numéro du rapport: 179438 Date du document: 1 décembre 2022 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Nikolova,Desislava Enikova,Schiffbauer,Marc Tobias,Fazekas,Mihaly,Drozd,Maciej Adam,Pennings,Steven Michael,Vaughan,Kristina Noelle,Kilinc,Umut
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The Long Term Growth Model : Fundamentals, Extensions, and Applications (anglais)
The Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) and its extensions are a suite of models and spreadsheet-based toolkits for analyzing future growth paths in developing countries, based on the Solow-Swan growth model...
Type de document: Rapport Numéro du rapport: 177580 Date du document: 7 novembre 2022 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Loayza,Norman V.,Pennings,Steven Michael
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Assessing the Effects of Natural Resources on Long-Term Growth : An Extension of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model (anglais)
This paper extends the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM) with the addition of a natural resource sector to analyze how long-run growth evolves in resource-rich countries and the growth impacts...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9965 Date du document: 14 mars 2022 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Loayza,Norman V.,Galego Mendes,Arthur,Mendez Ramos,Fabian,Pennings,Steven Michael
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A Gender Employment Gap Index (GEGI) : A Simple Measure of the Economic Gains from Closing Gender Employment Gaps, with an Application to the Pacific Islands (anglais)
Despite a policy consensus that closing gender employment gaps will boost economic growth, relatively little is known about the size of these gains in many developing countries. This paper develops a new...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9942 Date du document: 22 février 2022 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Pennings,Steven Michael
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Cross-Region Transfer Multipliers in a Monetary Union : Evidence from Social Security and Stimulus Payments (anglais)
US federal transfers to individuals are large, countercyclical, vary geographically, and are often credited with helping to stabilize regional economies. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these...
Type de document: Article de revue Numéro du rapport: 161477 Date du document: 1 mai 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Pennings,Steven Michael
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The Human Capital Index 2020 Update : Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19 (anglais)
The Human Capital Index (HCI) is an international metric that benchmarks key components of human capital across countries. Measuring the human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by her...
Type de document: Document de travail Numéro du rapport: 152967 Date du document: 1 janvier 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Gatti,Roberta V.,Corral Rodas,Paul Andres,Dehnen,Nicola Anna Pascale,Dsouza,Ritika,Mejalenko,Juan Elias,Pennings,Steven Michael
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The Utilization-adjusted Human Capital Index (UHCI) (anglais)
The World Bank Human Capital Index (HCI) is based on the productivity gains of future workers from human capital accumulation. But in many developing countries, a sizeable fraction of people are not employed...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9375 Date du document: 16 septembre 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Pennings,Steven Michael
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One Rule Fits All ? Heterogeneous Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters When Price Shocks Can Be Persistent: Theory and Evidence (anglais)
Commodity-exporting developing economies are often characterized as having needlessly procyclical fiscal policy: spending when commodity prices are high and cutting back when prices fall. The standard...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9400 Date du document: 15 septembre 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Galego Mendes,Arthur,Pennings,Steven Michael
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The Seasonality of Conflict (anglais)
This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper provides a new test of this "opportunity cost mechanism" using one of the largest shocks...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9373 Date du document: 31 août 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Guardado,Jenny,Pennings,Steven Michael
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Malaysia's Economic Growth and Transition to High Income : An Application of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model (LTGM) (anglais)
This paper studies economic growth in Malaysia, with the purpose of assessing the potential to attain the status and characteristics of a high-income country. Future economic growth is simulated under...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9278 Date du document: 1 juin 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Devadas,Sharmila,Guzman,Jorge P.,Kim,Young Eun,Loayza,Norman V.,Pennings,Steven Michael
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Cross-Region Transfers in a Monetary Union : Evidence from the US and Some Implications (anglais)
US federal transfers to individuals are large, countercyclical, vary geographically, and are often credited for helping stabilize regional economies. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9244 Date du document: 12 mai 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Pennings,Steven Michael
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Leader Value Added : Assessing the Growth Contribution of Individual National Leaders (anglais)
Previous literature suggests that leaders matter for growth in general. This paper asks which leaders matter and develops a methodology to estimate the growth contribution of individual leaders and calculate...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9215 Date du document: 16 avril 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Easterly,William R.,Pennings,Steven Michael
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Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19 : A Primer for Developing Countries (anglais)
COVID-19 not only represents a worldwide public health emergency but has become an international economic crisis that could surpass the global financial crisis of 2008–09. Right now, containment and mitigation...
Type de document: Fiche Numéro du rapport: 147291 Date du document: 26 mars 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Loayza,Norman V.,Pennings,Steven Michael
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Development Digest : Approaching New Frontiers (anglais)
The World Bank Group Global Knowledge and Research Hub in Malaysia is experiencing a year of transitions: firstly, moving into our next phase of operations, beginning July 1, 2020; and second, undergoing...
Type de document: Document de travail Numéro du rapport: 142982 Date du document: 1 octobre 2019 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Schmillen,Achim Daniel,Abdul Aziz,Ahmad Hafiz Bin,Brown,Deryck R.,Hussain,Farah Imrana,Raad,Firas,Moroz,Harry Edmund,Govindasamy,Jeevakumar,Simler,Kenneth,Warwick,Mara K.,Tan,Mei Ling,Lee,Min Hui,Bajpai,Rajni,Reddy,Rekha,Record,Richard James Lowden,Faiez,Shahridan,Devadas,Sharmila,Raja,Siddhartha,Pennings,Steven Michael,Rao,Vijayendra,Zhang,Wei - EEAF1
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Assessing the Effect of Public Capital on Growth : An Extension of the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model (anglais)
To analyze the effect of an increase in the quantity or quality of public investment on growth, this paper extends the World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM), by separating the total capital stock...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS8604 Date du document: 9 octobre 2018 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Devadas,Sharmila,Pennings,Steven Michael
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Growth and Productivity in the Philippines : Winning the Future (anglais)
To achieve the AmBisyon Natin 2040, the Philippines needs to triple its income per capita in the next two decades. The AmBisyon Natin 2040 is the government’s plan to transform the country into a prosperous...
Type de document: Document de travail Numéro du rapport: 130056 Date du document: 1 septembre 2018 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Qian,Rong,Warwick,Mara K.,Diop,Ndiame,Hansl,Birgit,Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia,Bruckner,Markus,Chua,Kevin C.,Enriquez,Karen Annette Lazaro,Galang,Roberto Martin Nolan,Garcia,Andres F.,Miralles,Graciela,Iootty,Mariana,Pennings,Steven Michael,Guzman,Jorge P.,Kim,Young Eun,Devadas,Sharmila,Nguyen,Ha Minh
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When is the government transfer multiplier large ? (anglais)
Transfers to individuals were a larger part of the 2009 U.S. stimulus package than government purchases. Using a two-agent New Keynesian model, this paper shows analytically that the multiplier on targeted...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS8184 Date du document: 6 septembre 2017 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Giambattista,Eric,Pennings,Steven Michael
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Consumption smoothing and shock persistence : optimal simple fiscal rules for commodity exporters (anglais)
A common criticism of balanced budget fiscal rules is that they increase the consumption volatility of financially constrained households who are unable to smooth consumption. This paper evaluates the...
Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS8035 Date du document: 25 avril 2017 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Galego Mendes,Arthur,Pennings,Steven Michael