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  • Is a Global Recession Imminent? (anglais)

    Global growth prospects have deteriorated significantly since the beginning of the year, raising the specter of global recession. This paper relies on insights gleaned from previous global recessions to...

    Type de document: Rapport Numéro du rapport: 176007 Date du document: 1 septembre 2022 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Guenette,Justin Damien,Kose,Ayhan,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt ? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami (anglais)

    This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9871 Date du document: 30 novembre 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • A Mountain of Debt : Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic (anglais)

    The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9800 Date du document: 8 octobre 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 (anglais)

    The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major...

    Type de document: Publication Numéro du rapport: 160157 Date du document: 1 juin 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Baffes,John,Guenette,Justin Damien,Ha,Jongrim,Inami,Osamu,Kabundi,Alain Ntumba,Kasyanenko,Sergiy,Kilic Celik,Sinem,Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene,Kirby,Patrick Alexander,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa,Quaglietti,Lucia,Ruch,Franz Ulrich,Sugawara,Naotaka,Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T.,Vorisek,Dana Lauren,Wheeler,Collette Mari,Yamazaki,Takefumi

  • A Decade After the Global Recession : Lessons and Challenges for Emerging and Developing Economies (anglais)

    This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well. However, following a short-lived initial...

    Type de document: Publication Numéro du rapport: 143705 Date du document: 14 avril 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Arteta,Carlos,Kasyanenko,Sergiy,Koh,Wee Chian,Ruch,Franz Ulrich,Sugawara,Naotaka,Terrones,Marco E.,Ye,Lei Sandy,Yu,Shu,Kose,M. Ayhan [Editor],Ohnsorge,Franziska [Editor]

  • Global Economic Prospects, January 2021 (anglais)

    Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged...

    Type de document: Publication Numéro du rapport: 155531 Date du document: 1 janvier 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Baffes,John,Guenette,Justin Damien,Ha,Jongrim,Inami,Osamu,Kabundi,Alain Ntumba,Kasyanenko,Sergiy,Kilic Celik,Sinem,Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene,Kirby,Patrick Alexander,Matsuoka,Hideaki,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Okawa,Yohei,Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa,Ruch,Franz Ulrich,Steinbach,Max Rudibert,Sugawara,Naotaka,Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T.,Vorisek,Dana Lauren,Wheeler,Collette Mari,Yamazaki,Takefumi,Ye,Lei Sandy

  • Global Waves of Debt : Causes and Consequences (anglais)

    Waves of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past 50 years. In emerging market and developing economies, there have been four major debt waves since 1970. The...

    Type de document: Publication Numéro du rapport: 157143 Date du document: 1 janvier 2021 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • Global Economic Prospects : June 2020 (anglais)

    The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented...

    Type de document: Publication Numéro du rapport: 149319 Date du document: 8 juin 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Baffes,John,Dieppe,Alistair Matthew,Guenette,Justin Damien,Kabundi,Alain Ntumba,Kasyanenko,Sergiy,Kilic Celik,Sinem,Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene,Kirby,Patrick Alexander,Maliszewska,Maryla,Matsuoka,Hideaki,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Okawa, Yoki,Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa,Ruch,Franz Ulrich,Steinbach,Max Rudibert,Sugawara,Naotaka,Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T.,Vorisek,Dana Lauren,Wheeler,Collette Mari,Ye,Lei Sandy,Yu, Shu

  • Can This Time Be Different ? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt (anglais)

    Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9178 Date du document: 10 mars 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • Global Recessions (anglais)

    The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009. During each of these episodes, annual real per capita global gross domestic product...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9172 Date du document: 3 mars 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Sugawara,Naotaka,Terrones,Marco E.

  • Benefits and Costs of Debt : The Dose Makes the Poison (anglais)

    Government debt has risen substantially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis. The current environment of low global interest rates and weak growth may appear...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9166 Date du document: 27 février 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • Debt and Financial Crises (anglais)

    Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS9116 Date du document: 22 janvier 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Koh,Wee Chian,Kose,Ayhan,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • Global Economic Prospects, January 2020 : Slow Growth, Policy Challenges (anglais)

    Global growth is expected to recover to 2.5 percent in 2020, up slightly from the post-crisis low of 2.4 percent registered last year amid weakening trade and investment, and edge up further over the forecast...

    Type de document: Publication Numéro du rapport: 144990 Date du document: 1 janvier 2020 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Dieppe,Alistair Matthew,Guénette, Justin-Damien,Ha,Jongrim,Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene,Kirby,Patrick Alexander,Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver,Steinbach,Max Rudibert,Sugawara,Naotaka,Taskin,Temel,Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T.,Vorisek,Dana Lauren,Wheeler,Collette Mari,Ye,Lei Sandy

  • Fiscal Space : Concept, Measurement, and Policy Implications (anglais)

    Effective fiscal policy depends on the amount of budget resources available to raise spending or lower taxes without jeopardizing fiscal sustainability. This resource availability is often called fiscal...

    Type de document: Fiche Numéro du rapport: 132195 Date du document: 1 novembre 2018 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • A cross-country database of fiscal space (anglais)

    This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS8157 Date du document: 2 août 2017 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Kose,Ayhan,Kurlat,Sergio Andres,Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte,Sugawara,Naotaka

  • Credit-less recoveries : neither a rare nor an insurmountable challenge (anglais)

    This paper examines why some countries experience economic recoveries without pick-up of bank credit (credit-less) and how different this recovery pattern is from the case where credit is increased as...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS6459 Date du document: 1 mai 2013 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Sugawara,Naotaka,Zalduendo,Juan F.

  • Stress-testing croatian households with debt -- implications for financial stability (anglais)

    The purpose of this paper is to stress test the resilience of Croatian households with debt to economic shocks. The shocks not only impact a household's welfare, but also increase the probability of loan...

    Type de document: Document de travail de recherche sur les politiques Numéro du rapport: WPS5906 Date du document: 1 décembre 2011 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Sugawara,Naotaka,Zalduendo,Juan F.

  • Would liberalization lead to epidemic cocaine consumption? (anglais)

    This paper uses cross-country data to estimate the potential effect of drastic reductions in the price of cocaine on the share of the population who consumes this drug. In order to identify movements along...

    Type de document: Article de revue Numéro du rapport: 79413 Date du document: 1 août 2011 Mode de publication: Disclosed Auteur: Loayza,Norman V.,Sugawara,Naotaka