Documents et rapports

Fiscal Policy Procyclicality and Volatility in Commodity-Exporting Emerging and Developing Economies : Determinants and Implications for Growth (anglais)

Over the past few decades, fiscal policy has been about 30 percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatile in commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) than in other...

Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2024 (anglais)

Commodity prices are expected to decrease by 5 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. The projected declines are led by oil prices but tempered by price increases for natural gas and a stable outlook for...

Kenya Economic Update - Fostering Trade for Robust Growth and Dynamic Job Creation (anglais)

Tight monetary policies, restrictive financial conditions, and the slowdown of global trade continued to weaken global growth. Global economic growth declined in 2023 and is expected to decline further...

Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024 (anglais)

The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some...

Comparative Analysis of AI-Predicted and Crowdsourced Food Prices in an Economically Volatile Region (anglais)

High-frequency monitoring of food commodity prices is important for assessing and responding to shocks, especially in fragile contexts where timely and targeted interventions for food security are critical...

Baromètre économique de la CEMAC : Vol. 5 (français)

Le Baromètre économique de la CEMAC est une publication de la Banque mondiale qui présente un aperçu des évolutions récentes et des perspectives économiques, suivi d’un bref diagnostic de chacun des pays...

Barómetro Económico de la CEMAC : Vol. 5 (espagnol)

El Barómetro Económico de la CEMAC es una publicación del Banco Mundial que ofrece un resumen de la evolución reciente y de las perspectivas económicas de la región de la CEMAC, seguido de un breve análisis...

CEMAC Economic Barometer : Vol. 5 (anglais)

The CEMAC Economic Barometer is a World Bank publication that presents a snapshot of recent developments in and the economic outlook of the CEMAC region, followed by a brief assessment at the country level...

Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices : Literature Review and a Model Suite (anglais)

Almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies rely heavily on resource sectors for economic activity, fiscal and export revenues. In these economies, economic planning requires sound baseline...

Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS) - Malawi De-risking Import of Strategic Commodities Project - P500589 (anglais)

Trading Places : Fundamentals, Speculation, and Information in US Corn Markets (anglais)

What explains the surge and plunge commodity markets have undergone in the past 20 years? Are speculators to be blamed? Do prices reflect full information? These are the main questions addressed in this...

Global Footprints of U.S. Energy Innovations: Energy Efficiency and the Shale Revolution (anglais)

This paper studies the effects of U.S. energy shocks on international economic activity and the world oil market. The analysis uses a set of factor-augmented vector autoregressions to identify and compare...

Commodity Price Cycles : Commonalities, Heterogeneities, and Drivers (anglais)

This paper studies commodity price cycles and their underlying drivers using a dynamic factor model. The study employs a sample of 39 monthly commodity prices over 1970:01 to 2019:12. The analysis identifies...

Mauritania - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (anglais)

Mauritania’s risk of external debt distress has been reduced from high to moderate, reflecting the reduced present value of debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) following the renegotiation of a large loan...

Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2022 : War in the Region (anglais)

In February 2022, the world was shocked by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. The war is having a devastating impact on human life and causing economic destruction in both countries and will...

Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022 : The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets - Executive Summary (anglais)

The war in Ukraine has caused major supply disruptions and led to historically higher prices for a number of commodities. Most commodity prices are now expected to see sharp increases in 2022 and remain...

Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022 : The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets - Special Focus (anglais)

The war in Ukraine has caused major supply disruptions and led to historically higher prices for a number of commodities. Most commodity prices are now expected to see sharp increases in 2022 and remain...

Bangladesh - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (anglais)

Bangladesh remains at a low risk of external and overall debt distress. External and domestic debt indicators are below their respective thresholds under the baseline and stress test scenarios, despite...

المستجدات الاقتصادية لمنطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا: التحقق من الواقع - التنبؤ بالنمو في أوقات عدم اليقين (arabe)

ويؤدي عدم اليقين مرة أخرى إلى تلقي بظلالها على آفاق الاقتصاد العالمي. تمثل الحرب غير المتوقعة في أوروبا تحديات كبيرة للاقتصاد العالمي ومنطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا. وقد انتشرت هذه الصدمة في أسواق السلع...

Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 (Vol. 1 of 2) (anglais)

The global recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market...